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    UNIT – 4

    Reasoning under Uncertainty:


    Non-monotonic Reasoning,
    Logics for Non-monotonic Reasoning,
    Default Reasoning,
    Minimalistic Reasoning,
    Implementation Issues,
    Truth Maintenance Systems;
    Probabilistic Reasoning and Uncertainty;
    Statistical Reasoning;
    Probability Theory;
    Bayes Theorem and Bayesian networks;
    Certainty Factor;
    Dempster-Shafer Theory.

    Planning:
    Overview;
    The Blocks Words;
    Component of a Planning System:
    Goal Stack Planning;
    Nonlinear Planning;
    Q1. What is Partial-order planning? 3no. 2022
    Q2. What is Naïve Bayes?
    Q1. What is a Bayesian Network and why is it important in AL? 6no.

    Q1. What do you mean by non-linear planning? 2no. 2021


    Q1. Explain goal stack planning. 3no
    Q1. What is Bayes theorem? Discuss Bayesian networks. 6no

    Q1. Define probabilistic inference. 2no. 2021 5th sem


    Q2. What are the source of uncertainty? 2no.
    Q1. Write short note on: Bayesian belief network with example. 3no.
    Q1. Write short note on: 6no.
    1. Depth first search
    2. Goal stack planning

    Q1. What is Bayesian Belief Network? 2no. IT 2022


    Q2. What is parsing techniques?
    Q1. Differentiate between monotonic and non-monotonic reasoning ? 6no.
    Q2. Explain Goal Stack Planning.

    Q1. Explain Block Ward? 2no. 2020


    Q2. Explain uncertainty.
    Q1. Explain goal stack planning. 3no.
    Q2. Explain the concept of Bayesian Network with example.
    Q1. Explain Dempster- Shafer’s theory with suitable example. 6no.
    Q1. What do you mean by NLP? #
    Q2. What are the various components of planning system? 2no. 2017
    Q1. Define Augmented Transition Nets? #
    Q2. Explain goal stack planning. 3no.
    Q1. Explain Bayesian Network in detail. 6no.
    Reasoning under Uncertainty:
    Non-monotonic Reasoning,
     Non-monotonic Reasoning is the process that changes its direction or values as the
    knowledge base increases.

     It is also known as NMR in Artificial Intelligence.

     Non-monotonic Reasoning will increase or decrease based on the condition.

     Since that Non-monotonic Reasoning depends on assumptions, It will change itself


    with improving knowledge or facts.

     Abductive Reasoning and Human Reasoning is a non- monotonic type of


    reasoning.

    Monotonic Reasoning Non-Monotonic Reasoning

    Monotonic Reasoning is the process


    Non-monotonic Reasoning is the
    which does not change its direction or
    process which changes its direction or
    can say that it moves in the one
    values as the knowledge base increases.
    1 direction.

    Monotonic Reasoning deals with very


    Non-monotonic reasoning deals with
    specific type of models, which has
    incomplete or not known facts.
    2 valid proofs.

    The addition in knowledge will


    The addition in knowledge won’t
    invalidate the previous conclusions and
    change the result.
    3 change the result.

    Monotonic Reasoning is based on true Non-monotonic Reasoning is based on


    4 facts. assumptions.

    Abductive Reasoning and Human


    Deductive Reasoning is the type of
    Reasoning is a non-monotonic type of
    monotonic reasoning.
    5 reasoning.

    Logics for Non-monotonic Reasoning,


    Default Reasoning,
    Minimalistic Reasoning,
    Implementation Issues,
    Truth Maintenance Systems;
    Probabilistic Reasoning and Uncertainty;
    Statistical Reasoning;
    Probability Theory;

    Bayes Theorem and Bayesian networks:


    Bayes Theorem: -
     Bayes' theorem is also known as Bayes' rule, Bayes' law, or Bayesian reasoning,
    which determines the probability of an event with uncertain knowledge.

     In probability theory, it relates the conditional probability and marginal probabilities of


    two random events.

     Bayes' theorem was named after the British mathematician Thomas Bayes.

     The Bayesian inference is an application of Bayes' theorem, which is fundamental to


    Bayesian statistics.

     It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the knowledge of P(A|B).

     Bayes' theorem allows updating the probability prediction of an event by observing


    new information of the real world.

    Bayes' theorem can be derived using product rule and conditional probability of
    event A with known event B:

    As from product rule we can write:

    1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(A|B) P(B) or


    2. P(A ⋀ B)= P(B|A) P(A)

    Equating right hand side of both the equations, we will get:

    The above equation (a) is called as Bayes' rule or Bayes' theorem.

    Application of Bayes' theorem in Artificial


    intelligence:
    Following are some applications of Bayes' theorem:

    o It is used to calculate the next step of the robot when the already executed
    step is given.
    o Bayes' theorem is helpful in weather forecasting.
    o It can solve the Monty Hall problem.

    Bayesian networks:
     Bayesian belief network is key computer technology for dealing with probabilistic events and
    to solve a problem which has uncertainty.

     A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model which represents a set of variables and
    their conditional dependencies using a directed acyclic graph.

     It is also called a Bayes network, belief network, decision network, or Bayesian model.

     Bayesian networks are probabilistic, because these networks are built from a probability
    distribution, and also use probability theory for prediction and anomaly detection.

     Real world applications are probabilistic in nature, and to represent the relationship between
    multiple events, we need a Bayesian network.

     Bayesian Network can be used for building models from data and experts opinions, and it
    consists of two parts:

     Directed Acyclic Graph


     Table of conditional probabilities.

    A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes and Arcs (directed links), where:

     Each node corresponds to the random variables.


     Arc or directed arrows represent the causal relationship or conditional probabilities
    between random variables.

    Certainty Factor;
    Dempster-Shafer Theory.
     Dempster-Shafer Theory, also known as evidence theory, is a mathematical framework for
    reasoning under uncertainty.

     DST is a mathematical theory of evidence based on belief


    functions and plausible reasoning.

     It is used to combine separate pieces of information (evidence)


    to calculate the probability of an event.

     DST offers an alternative to traditional probabilistic theory for


    the mathematical representation of uncertainty.

     DST can be regarded as, a more general approach to represent


    uncertainty than the Bayesian approach.

     Bayesian methods are sometimes inappropriate.


    Planning:
    Overview;
     Planning is a cognitive process that involves the formulation of a set of action to
    achieve a specific goal or set of goals.

     It is an essential aspect of problem-solving, and decision-making in various


    domains, including artificial intelligence, robotics, and human cognition.

     Planning is an important part of Artificial Intelligence which deals with the


    tasks and domains of a particular problem.

     Planning is considered the logical side of acting.

     Planning in artificial intelligence is about decision-making actions


    performed by robots or computer programs to achieve a specific goal.
    The Blocks Word: -
     The Blocks Word is a classic problem domain commonly used in artificial
    intelligence to test and demonstrate planning algorithms.

     In this simplified environment, there are several blocks of different shapes and
    sizes placed at the flat surface.

     The objective is to rearrange these blocks to achieve a specific configuration.

     The goal is to build one or more vertical stacks of blocks.

     Only on block may be moved at a time: it may either be placed on the table or
    placed a top another block.
    Component of a Planning System:
    The plan includes the following important steps:

    1. Choose the best rule to apply the next rule based on the best available guess.

    2. Apply the chosen rule to calculate the new problem condition.

    3. Delete when a solution is found.

    4. Detect dead ends so they can be discarded and the system’s effort directed in
    more useful directions.

    5. Delete when an almost correct solution has been found.


    Goal Stack Planning; (linear Planning)
     Goal Stack Planning is the one of the simplest planning algorithm that is
    designed to handle problems having compound goals.

     Goal Stack Planning is a planning paradigm that organizes goals into a stack.

     The system starts with the top-level goal and decomposes it into subgoals.

     Each subgoal is further decomposed until primitive actions are identified and
    executed.

     This hierarchical manner helps in managing complexity and arrange actions in a


    structured manner.

    Goal Stack Planning:

    Goal Stack Planning involves the following steps:

    1. Initialization:
     Start with the top-level goal.
     Decompose the goal into subgoals.
    2. Subgoal Decomposition:
     Repeat the decomposition process for each subgoal.
     Continue until primitive actions are identified.
    3. Action Execution:
     Execute the primitive actions in the order determined by the
    decomposition.
    4. Backtracking:
     If a subgoal cannot be achieved, backtrack to the previous level of the
    goal stack.
     Reevaluate and modify the plan as needed.
    5. Completion:
     Continue executing actions and backtracking until the top-level goal is
    achieved.

    Nonlinear Planning;
     Nonlinear Planning refers to the planning systems that do not strictly follow a
    linear sequence of actions.

     Unlike goal stack planning, nonlinear planning allows for more flexibility in the
    order and timing to actions.

     In non-linear planning, the problem is divided into sub-problems so that these
    sub-problems are dependent on each other.

     It is a partial ordering planning, i.e., as the action are not arranged in a specific
    order.

     This approach is particular useful when dealing uncertainties, dynamic
    environments, or situations where the optimal order of actions is not
    predetermined.

    Example
    In this example, the initial state is dependent on state1, state2, state3, and the final
    state. State3 is dependent on state2, state1, and the final state. State2 is dependent on
    the final state. Here all the states are dependent on each other to reach the final state.

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