Biden 97ForeignAff44
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Biden 97ForeignAff44
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MICHAEL CARPENTER is Senior Director of the Penn Biden Center and served as U.S.
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense from 2015 to 2017.
44 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
How to Stand Up to the Kremlin
Russia. But that dream is now more distant than at any time since the
Cold War's end.
Today, the Russian government is brazenly assaulting the foundations
of Western democracy around the world. Under President Vladimir
Putin, the Kremlin has launched a coordinated attack across many
domains -military, political, economic, informational -using a variety
of overt and covert means. At the extreme, in the cases of Georgia
and Ukraine, Russia has invaded neighboring countries to block their
integration into NATO or the Eu and to send a message to other gov-
ernments in the region that pursuing Western-backed democratic
reform will bring dire consequences. More frequently and more
insidiously, it has sought to weaken and subvert Western democra-
cies from the inside by weaponizing information, cyberspace, energy,
and corruption.
At its core, this assault is motivated by the Kremlin's desire to
protect its wealth and power. The Russian regime that emerged from
the ashes of the Soviet collapse consolidated immense authority and
privilege in the hands of a small cabal of former intelligence officials
and oligarchs. They appear strong from the outside, but their power
remains brittle at the core-a fact that Putin and the top members
of his regime understand better than anyone. Without a chokehold
on civil society, the adoring applause and sky-high approval ratings
they generally enjoy could quickly descend into a storm of boos
and whistles, as Putin has discovered on more than one occasion.
The regime projects an aura of invincibility that masks the shallow
roots of its public support, particularly among younger, urban, and
educated Russians.
To safeguard its kleptocratic system, the Kremlin has decided to
take the fight beyond Russia's borders to attack what it perceives as
the greatest external threat to its survival: Western democracy. By
attacking the West, the Kremlin shifts attention away from corrup-
tion and economic malaise at home, activates nationalist passions
to stifle internal dissent, and keeps Western democracies on the
defensive and preoccupied with internal divisions. This allows Moscow
to consolidate its power at home and exert untrammeled influence
over its "near abroad."
To fight back, the United States must lead its democratic allies
and partners in increasing their resilience, expanding their capabilities
to defend against Russian subversion, and rooting out the Kremlin's
January/February2018 45
Joseph R. Biden, Jr., and Michael Carpenter
46 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
How to Stand Up to the Kremlin
January/February2018 47
Joseph R. Biden, Jr., and Michael Carpenter
From the Kremlin's perspective, the United States and its democratic
allies pose three distinct threats. First, Russia harbors an erroneous
but stubborn -perhaps even obsessive-belief that Washington is
actively pursuing regime change in Russia. There is no truth to
that idea; the United States has never
Russia's leaders have built sought to remove Putin. But Putin
and his associates have long peddled a
a Potemkin democracy in conspiracy theory that accuses the
which democraticform United States of engineering popular
masks authoritariancontent. uprisings in Serbia in 2000, Georgia
in 2003, Ukraine in 2004 and 2014,
Kyrgyzstan in 2005, and throughout
the Arab world in 2010-11. And they have apparently come to
believe their own propaganda, perceiving Washington's hand behind
the mass protests that erupted in Moscow and other Russian cities
in 2011-12. Tens of thousands of Russians took to the streets before
and after elections that returned Putin to the presidency after four
years in which he had ruled from the sidelines as prime minster.
Putin was apparently unable to comprehend that his attempt to
remain in power indefinitely might alienate some constituents or
that widely shared smartphone videos of ballot stuffing during
the parliamentary election held in December 2011 would offend
Russian citizens.
Second, the regime fears that Western support for democratic reforms
among Russia's neighbors, particularly measures to boost transparency
and fight corruption, will undermine the patronage networks that allow
Kremlin cronies to extract enormous rents in the "near abroad."
Third, democratic transformation in Russia's neighborhood would
serve as a powerful counterexample to Moscow's kleptocratic and
authoritarian rule and would delegitimize its authority over the long
run. So Russia waged wars against Georgia in 2008 and against Ukraine
in 2014 in order to undermine governments determined to pursue
further integration with NATO and the EU. Meanwhile, a third country
in the region, Moldova, has been partially occupied by Russian forces
since the early 1990s as leverage against any sudden movement toward
the West (despite a provision of constitutional neutrality that precludes
Moldova from joining foreign military alliances).
The Kremlin has justified its violations of these countries' sovereignty
on the grounds that they form part of Russia's "sphere of privileged
48 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
How to Stand Up to the Kremlin
January/February2018 49
Joseph R. Biden, Jr., and Michael Carpenter
50 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
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How to Stand Up to the Kremlin
WEAPONIZING CORRUPTION
Russia's disinformation operations, cyberattacks, and energy politics
have received a good deal of attention. Less well covered are the ways
in which Russia has managed to effectively export the corruption that
has warped its own politics and economy-weaponizing it, in a sense,
and aiming it at vulnerable societies elsewhere.
In Russia's crony capitalist system, success and survival in business
depend on the protection of powerful patrons who can shelter a business-
person or a company from raids by bigger competitors or overzealous
January/February2018 51
Joseph R. Biden, Jr., and Michael Carpenter
52 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
How to Stand Up to the Kremlin
January/February2018 53
Joseph R. Biden, Jr., and Michael Carpenter
One step NATO members can take would be to broaden the responsibility
for such planning beyond their militaries and defense ministries. The
EU and the private sector need to be part of such efforts, so that Russian
strikes on infrastructure can be isolated and backup systems can be put
in place. Although much of the responsibility for cyberdefense cur-
rently rests with individual countries, the interconnectedness of allied
infrastructure makes greater coordination imperative.
Western democracies must also address glaring vulnerabilities in
their electoral systems, financial sectors, cyber-infrastructure, and media
ecosystems. The U.S. campaign finance system, for example, needs to
be reformed to deny foreign actors-from Russia and elsewhere-the
ability to interfere in American elections. Authorities can no longer turn
a blind eye to the secretive bundling of donations that allows foreign
money to flow to U.S. organizations (such as "ghost corporations")
that in turn contribute to super PACs and other putatively independent
political organizations, such as trade associations and so-called 501(c)
(4) groups. Congress must get serious about campaign finance reform
now; doing so should be a matter of bipartisan consensus since this
vulnerability affects Democrats and Republicans in equal measure.
The United States also needs more transparency in its financial and
real estate markets, which have become havens for corrupt foreign
capital, some of which undoubtedly seeps into politics. To expose and
prevent the money laundering behind that trend, Congress should pass
new legislation to require greater transparency in high-end real estate
investments and tighten loopholes that allow money to be laundered
through opaque law-firm bank accounts or shell companies. Authorities
in Washington and other Western capitals must also integrate law
enforcement and intelligence tools to neutralize corrupt networks
linked to Russia. The Kremlin has successfully fused organized criminal
groups, intelligence agencies, and corrupt businesses, as revealed in
great detail by a recent investigation carried out by Spanish authorities.
Nothing illustrates the tangled web linking organized crime, Russian
government officials, and the Kremlin's foreign influence operations
more clearly than the ongoing lobbying efforts in the United States on
behalf of the criminal syndicate responsible for the death of Sergei
Magnitsky, the Russian lawyer who was killed in a Moscow prison after
he uncovered a corrupt scheme to steal $230 million from the Russian
Treasury. In the United States, a dedicated interagency body should be
charged with coordinating efforts to neutralize such malign networks.
54 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
How to Stand Up to the Kremlin
January/February2018 55
Joseph R. Biden, Jr., and Michael Carpenter
term but also as a signal to the Kremlin that the costs of such behavior
will eventually outweigh any perceived benefits. Having suffered few
lasting consequences for its 2007 cyberattack on Estonia and only a short
financial decline following its 2008 invasion of Georgia, the Kremlin er-
roneously concluded that it could act with relative impunity. It did so in
spite of the clear marker that the Obama administration laid down from
the very start. As one of us, Joe Biden, noted in a speech at the Munich
Security Conference in 2009, "We will not recognize any nation having
a sphere of influence. It will remain our view that sovereign states have
the right to make their own decisions and choose their own alliances." So
when Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States led the way by imposing
tough sanctions. Fortunately, the Countering America's Adversaries
Through Sanctions Act, a bill that Congress passed last August, codified
the sanctions on Russia that were put in place by the Obama administra-
tion and gave the current administration enhanced authorities to impose
lasting consequences on Russia for its interference in the 2016 election.
Even while defending U.S. interests and safeguarding liberal democ-
racy elsewhere, Washington must keep the channels of communication
open with Moscow. At the height of the Cold War, American and Soviet
leaders recognized that, whatever their differences, they could not afford
a miscalculation that might lead to war. They had to keep talking. The
same is true today: as two nuclear superpowers with military assets de-
ployed in close proximity in many different parts of the globe, the United
States and Russia have a mutual obligation to maintain strategic stability.
That means not only regulating the development and deployment of
strategic weapons but also communicating clearly to avoid misunder-
standings about what each side perceives as a strategic threat. For its part,
Washington needs to spell out clear consequences for interfering in the
U.S. democratic process or tampering with critical U.S. infrastructure.
56 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
How to Stand Up to the Kremlin
he absolutely did not meddle in our election. He did not do what they
are saying he did." Pressed about whether he accepted Putin's denials,
Trump replied: "Every time he sees me, he says, 'I didn't do that,' and I
really believe that when he tells me that, he means it." Trump has made a
habit of lavishing praise on Putin and even reportedly sought to lift sanc-
tions against Russia shortly after his inauguration. We are not question-
ing Trumps motives, but his behavior forces us to question his judgment.
If this administration cannot or will not stand up to Russia, other
democratic institutions, including Congress and civil society organi-
zations, must mobilize. A starting point would be the creation of an
independent, nonpartisan commission to examine Russia's assault on
American democracy, establish a common understanding of the scope
and complexity of the Russian threat, and identify the tools required
to combat it. The 9/11 Commission allowed the United States to come
to terms with and address the vulnerabilities that made al Qaeda's
attacks possible. Today, Americans need a thorough, detailed inquest
into how Russia's strike on their democratic institutions was carried
out and how another one might be prevented.
In the absence of an independent commission with a broad man-
date, the United States will be left with only the relatively narrow
investigations led by the special counsel Robert Mueller, the congres-
sional intelligence committees, and the Senate Judiciary Committee.
The good news is that Congress has already demonstrated its clear
understanding of the Russian threat: in an overwhelmingly bipartisan
manner, it passed the Countering America's Adversaries Through
Sanctions Act by a margin of 419 to 3 in the House of Representatives
and by 98 to 2 in the Senate. Congress should continue to rigorously
exercise its oversight responsibilities to ensure that the administration
applies the letter and spirit of the legislation- and, if it does not, to
make sure the American people find out.
And finally, as more news breaks each day about the extent of Russia's
disinformation campaign and the tactics that Moscow used to manipulate
public opinion and exploit the fault lines within U.S. society, it falls on all
Americans to be aware and informed citizens. We must collectively reject
foreign influence over our democratic institutions and do more to address
the challenges within our own communities, rather than allowing dema-
gogues at home and tyrants abroad to drive us apart. Putin and his cronies
do not understand that the greatest strength of American democracy is an
engaged citizenry. Even if the president refuses to act, we can.0
January/February2018 57
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