Applsci 10 05776 With Cover
Applsci 10 05776 With Cover
Applsci 10 05776 With Cover
Review
Yingyi Chen, Lihua Song, Yeqi Liu, Ling Yang and Daoliang Li
Special Issue
Hydrologic and Water Resources Investigations and Modeling
Edited by
Dr. Nejc Bezak
https://doi.org/10.3390/app10175776
applied
sciences
Review
A Review of the Artificial Neural Network Models for
Water Quality Prediction
Yingyi Chen 1,2,3,4, * , Lihua Song 1,2,3 , Yeqi Liu 1,2,3 , Ling Yang 1,2,3 and Daoliang Li 1,2,3,4
1 Precision Agricultural Technology Integration Research Base (Fishery), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural
Affairs, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China; [email protected] (L.S.);
[email protected] (Y.L.); [email protected] (L.Y.); [email protected] (D.L.)
2 College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
3 National Innovation Center for Digital Fishery, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
4 Beijing Engineering and Technology Research Centre for Internet of Things in Agriculture,
China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
* Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-10-6273-8489
Received: 13 July 2020; Accepted: 17 August 2020; Published: 20 August 2020
Abstract: Water quality prediction plays an important role in environmental monitoring, ecosystem
sustainability, and aquaculture. Traditional prediction methods cannot capture the nonlinear and
non-stationarity of water quality well. In recent years, the rapid development of artificial neural
networks (ANNs) has made them a hotspot in water quality prediction. We have conducted
extensive investigation and analysis on ANN-based water quality prediction from three aspects,
namely feedforward, recurrent, and hybrid architectures. Based on 151 papers published from 2008 to
2019, 23 types of water quality variables were highlighted. The variables were primarily collected by the
sensor, followed by specialist experimental equipment, such as a UV-visible photometer. Five different
output strategies, namely Univariate-Input-Itself-Output, Univariate-Input-Other-Output,
Multivariate-Input-Other(multi)-output, Multivariate-Input-Itself-Other-Output, and Multivariate-
Input-Itself-Other (multi)-Output, are summarized. From results of the review, it can be concluded
that the ANN models are capable of dealing with different modeling problems in rivers, lakes,
reservoirs, wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), groundwater, ponds, and streams. The results of
many of the review articles are useful to researchers in prediction and similar fields. Several new
architectures presented in the study, such as recurrent and hybrid structures, are able to improve the
modeling quality of future development.
1. Introduction
Water quality plays an important role in any aquatic system, e.g., it can influence the growth of
aquatic organisms and reflect the degree of water pollution [1]. Water quality prediction is one of the
purposes of model development and use [2], which aims to achieve appropriate management over
a period of time [3]. Water quality prediction is to forecast the variation trend of water quality at a
certain time in the future [4]. Accurate water quality prediction plays a crucial role in environmental
monitoring, ecosystem sustainability, and human health. Moreover, predicting future changes in
water quality is a prerequisite for early control of intelligence aquaculture in the future [5]. Therefore,
water quality prediction has great practical significance [6].
At present, there are many traditional water quality prediction methods, such as multiple linear
regression (MLR) [7], auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) [8], etc. MLR is not able to
detect a nonlinear relationship between water quality parameters because of its linear inherence [9].
The main drawback of ARIMA is the pre-assumption of the linear model [10]. During the model
identification phase, the time series data must be checked to see whether they are stationary or
not, because it is critical in creating the ARIMA model. In fact, traditional methods are not able to
capture the non-linear [11] and non-stationarity [12] of water quality well due to their complex and
sophisticated nature.
With the increase in data scale, traditional techniques cannot meet the demand of researchers.
Owing to the improvement of computing power, artificial neural network (ANN) models,
data-driven models, have been further developed. They can capture functional relationships among
the water quality data from the examples [13]. When the underlying relationships of obtained data are
difficult to describe, ANN models still work. Moreover, ANNs require fewer prior assumptions [14]
and can achieve higher accuracy [15] compared with traditional approaches. In addition, ANNs are
suitable for solving the non-linear and uncertain problems due to their similar characteristics with the
brain nervous system [4], and have become a hotspot in water quality research [16].
ANNs are a family of models inspired by biological neural networks [17] which specifically
refers to the human brain [18], a kind of central nervous system of animals. In general, ANN can be
represented as a system of interconnected “neurons” [19] which form the basis of neural network
operation. Weight parameters and activation functions are part of the neurons [20]. ANNs are
generally divided into three layers of input, hidden and output. When neurons receive information
from different inputs, they obtain nonlinearity through activation functions. ANN models depend
heavily on the quantity of data [21]. Therefore, it is not recommended to use relatively small data
sizes for predictors (inputs). This is because some useful information is lost in short-term data,
which may lead to poor prediction results [3]. In addition, data dividing is a necessary step in the
modeling process. Furthermore, choosing the training algorithm to calibrate the model parameters
(e.g., connection weights) is a vital step so that the network can approximate complicated non-linear
input-output relationship [10]. The Levenberg–Marquardt [22] algorithm and the back-propagation
(BP) algorithm [23] are the most commonly used algorithms.
ANN models architectures determine the number of connection weights and the way information
flows through the network [20]. The most widely used architecture is Multilayer Perceptron (MLPs)
with only three layers in many types of feedforward ANNs. Radial Basis Function neural networks
(RBFNNs) [24], General regression neural networks (GRNNs) [25] and Extreme learning machines
(ELMs) [5] are three typical feedforward ANNs. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network
is an improvement of recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which aims to address the well-known
vanishing gradient problem [26]. The hybrid models in this review are three classes: model-intensive,
technique-intensive, and data-intensive [27]. The emerging frameworks, such as Convolutional Neural
Network (CNN) [28], widely used in the field of the image, are also included in this review.
In this review, ANN models for water quality variables prediction are summarized. Previous
reviews [20,27,29] about ANNs are more concerned about the water quantity (e.g., flow and
rainfall-runoff) prediction, while less attention has been paid to water quality prediction
(e.g., Suspended solids (SS)), and the major scenarios they investigated are river systems. At the
same time, previous reviews care about the development of the model while ignoring the output
strategies between input(s) and output(s) in a given prediction task. To overcome the limitations
above, this review focuses on the use of ANNs methods for water quality prediction, with more water
quality variables investigated than previous reviews, which are mainly divided into three categories,
namely chemical, biological and physical variables [30].
The research scenarios include not only the river system that was the focus of the previous review,
but also reservoirs, lakes, wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), groundwater, etc. It must be pointed
out that the review did not consider drinking water systems. The reason for this is that drinking
water is a system that includes source, treatment, and distribution, and should be considered as an
independent branch or subject for systematic research [30]. In addition to the increased number of
water quality variables reviewed and broader research scenarios, this review also summarizes five
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5776 3 of 49
output strategies. The period of the investigated papers covered was from 2008 to 2019. This period
was chosen as it follows on from the period covered in the review by [27] (i.e., 1999–2007). The review
is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the process of the paper collection. Section 3 describes three
basic model structures in water quality prediction. In Section 4, the applications of artificial neural
networks in water quality are surveyed. Then, Section 5 represents the results of this review. Finally,
the discussions are given in Section 6. All the abbreviations are mentioned in Table 1.
Abbreviations Full Name Abbreviations Full Name Abbreviations Full Name Abbreviations Full Name
Oxidation
Electrical total chromium
AH air humidity EC ORP reduction TCC
conductivity concentration
potential
August, October, total iron
AODD Evap evaporation Q discharge TIC
December, data concentration
flow travel Pondus total anions and
AP air pressure FTT pH TAC
time Hydrogenii cations
AT air temperature Fe iron Precip precipitation TNs total nutrients
As Arsenic F flow P phosphate TA total alkalinity
relative total
B boron HCO3 bicarbonate RH TP
humidity phosphorus
Biochemical
Hydrogenated Redox
BOD Oxygen HA RP Tur turbidity
Amine potential
Demand;
ionic total dissolved
C carbon ICs RO runoff TDS
concentrations solids
Cl chloride K potassium RF rainfall TN total nitrogen
Cu Copper Lon longitude RainP Rainy period TH total hardness
total organic
Ca calcium Lat latitude SR solar radiation TOC
carbon
2- sunshine time total suspended
CO3 Carbonate LV lake volume Sth TSS
hours solids
month, day,
Coli Coliform MDHM SD transparence VP volatile phenol
hour, minute
Chemical sodium
COD Oxygen Mn manganese; SAR absorption WL Water Level
Demand ratio
permanganate water
COD Mn Mg magnesium SM Soil Moisture WT
index temperature
soil
Chl-a Chlorophyll a Na sodium ST WS wind speed
temperature
dissolved
DO Ns nutrients SO4 sulphate WD wind direction
oxygen
the year
DOY day of year NO2 nitrite S salinity YMDH
numbers
2. Methods
This review focuses on the application of ANNs to water quality variables prediction excluding
drinking water from 2008 to 2019. The papers to be reviewed were selected using the following steps:
TDNNs is a subclass of MLPs that learns temporal behavior from continuous past and present
signals [36]. The major difference between RBFNNs and MLPs is that the hidden layer of RBFNNs is
self-organizing while the latter is not, although the structure of RBFNNs is similar to MLPs. As the
center of RBF, the training weights can be defined by a clustering algorithm. For example, the k-means
algorithm is a commonly used one [24]. GRNNs is a modified form of the RBFNNs model, but it
differs from RBFNNs in structure. Patten and summation layers are located between the input and
output layers [27]. The training between the input and pattern layer of GRNNs is equivalent to the
research on the input and hidden layer of the RBFNNs. WNNs have made some changes based on
the traditional MLPs, in which the non-linear sigmoid activation functions is replaced by the Morlet
wavelet function commonly used in the WNNs hidden layer. Therefore, WNNs are suitable for solving
non-stationary time series problems [64]. The biggest innovation of ELMs is the random selection of
hidden nodes and the use of a least squares method to determine the output layer weight. CCNN is
different from the above feedforward networks because it constructs the neural network without a
hidden layer at first and automatically adds hidden units instead of fixing the network architectures
and then training the weights and thresholds. The first step of MNN, a special feedforward network,
is data clustering using the fuzzy c-means method [65]. The second step is updating the clusters by
adding the new datasets. To achieve better prediction accuracy, a neural network with the maximum
similarity between the inputs and centroids of the cluster is chosen.
Deep belief network (DBN) is a kind of neural network based on deep learning which is similar to
feedforward structure and has been widely used in recent years. The blue virtual box in Figure 6 shows
several visible and hidden layers, stacked in order to make up the DBN [74]. However, the researches
about dynamically determining the structure are seldom investigated. To overcome the limitations
above, a SODBN has been proposed. The structure of the SODBN is not determined by artificial
experience but the automatic growing and pruning algorithm (AGP) [58]. Especially, the hidden layers
and neurons are changed by the AGP at first. Then, the weights of the SODBN are continuously
adjusted in the process of self-organization. Finally, some aspects of network performance, such as
running time and prediction accuracy have been improved.
prediction. Yeon et al. [90] evaluated ANN, MNN, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)
performance in 1-h and 2-h ahead prediction of DO and TOC. They added Q to inputs because rainfall
affected the water quality prediction. It was found that using the Levenberg–Marquart algorithm to
train the MNN could provide the least error and better results. Dogan et al. [91] divided the data
into training (60%), validation (20%), and testing sets (20%). They adopted a sensitivity analysis
method to find out the important water quality parameters and excluded fewer influence variables,
resulting in a compact network. Miao et al. [92] used BPNN to COD and ammonia nitrogen (NH3 -N)
prediction. The whole datasets were normalized at first and then divided into training (80%) and
testing (20%) sets. The sigmoid transfer function that can establish the random nonlinear map between
inputs and outputs were adopted. Oliveira Souza da Costa et al. [93] divided the data into training
(50%), validation (25%), and testing sets (25%). Shen et al. [94] employed a golden section method
to select the hidden layer nodes of BPNN. Singh et al. [95] investigated the partition approach in
evaluating the relative importance of eleven environmental variables to the output layer. They divided
the datasets into training (60%), validation (20%), and testing sets (20%). Results showed that the
predicted values of the ANN model were close to the measured value. Yeon et al. [96] combined Precip
and Q to realize a one-step prediction of Q. Then, the connected system utilized the prediction value
of Q and historical TOC to fulfill the one-step prediction of TOC. Finally, the connected system had
better performance than a single ANN model. Zuo and Yu [97] pointed out that ANN models could
process complex and multivariable problems. Akkoyunlu and Akiner [98] verified the feasibility of
ANN technique, data-driven models, in predicting DO. Results showed that the ANN method was
superior to the nonlinear regression (NLR) technique. Chen et al. [99] scaled the datasets to lie between
0 and 1 [9,16,59,62,100–104] so that it could be compatible with the sigmoid transfer functions used in
the hidden layer and applied the constructive and pruning of stepwise methods that aim to maximize
the model’s performance through a constant adjustment to surface water quality prediction. Markus et
al. [105] purely relied on a trial-and-error approach to determine the model structure and dividing the
data into training (50%) and testing sets (50%). Result found that ANN could improve the forecast
accuracy of NO3 compared with previous studies. Merdun and Çinar [106] preprocessed the data set
by normalization and moving average techniques. They improved the representation of the acquisition
data through a data preprocessing technique. Ranković et al. [107] used a sensitivity analysis method
to determine the influence of input variables on outputs and found out that 15 hidden neurons gave
the best choice. Zhu et al. [108] not only predicted the water quality using ANN models but also
introduced a remote wireless monitoring system. Banerjee et [109] checked that ANN models were
an accurate alternative to the numerical methods. They used quick propagation algorithm to realize
super linear convergence speed. Han et al. [110] demonstrated the effectiveness of a flexible structure
RBFNN which using neuron activity and mutual information (MI) to add or remove hidden neurons to
reduce network complexity and improve computational efficiency. The connected weights are trained
by an online learning algorithm. Zare et al. [10] used a UV-visible photometer to measure the NO3
concentration in the laboratory.
Asadollahfardi et al. [111] utilized Q to forecast TDS when TDS was not available.
Al-Mahallawi [77] revealed that the reason why ANN models could model complex water quality
phenomena was that they provided a non-linear function mapping from input to corresponding network
outputs. Ay and Kisi [112] divided the data into training (50%), validation (25%), and testing sets (25%).
In the three parts of data division, the validation set can be implemented more than once to monitor
whether the model is overfitting or not. Comparison results showed that the RBNN model performed
better than MLP in DO prediction. Baek et al. [50] chose the neural network of MNN, which has
the maximum similarity between the inputs and centroids of the cluster, to solve the problem of low
prediction accuracy. They introduced Gradient descent with momentum and Levenberg–Marquardt
backpropagation (TRAINLM) to train the neural network. Bayram et al. [79] used the one-year Tur
data whose time step is fortnightly to achieve the prediction of SS. Gazzaz et al. [113] scaled the data
into the scope between 0 and 1 and utilized cross-validation to improve the generalization ability
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5776 10 of 49
and limit the overfitting problem. Cross-validation was suitable for the situation where the size of
the training data was small or the number of parameters in the model was large. Overfitting refers
to the situation that when the error on the training set is driven to a very small value, the test data
are presented to the network with a large error. That means the network has memorized the training
examples, but it has not learned to generalize to new situations. Hong [78] took the AT, AP, WD,
and WS variables measured by meteorological station into account. They divided the data samples
into training (70%) and testing (30%) sets. Results indicated that MLP also could deal with large data
samples. Liu and Chen [114] recorded the location information to complete the three-dimensional
DO prediction. Tota-Maharaj and Scholz [22] assessed the influence of bp, Levenberg–Marquardt,
Quasi-Newton, and Bayesian Regularization algorithms on BOD prediction. Results showed that the
combination of bp and ANN had low minimum statistical errors. Kakaei Lafdani et al. [115] firstly used
M-test to obtain several data points through the winGamma software. Then, the genetic algorithm
(GA) method was implemented to make the best combination which extracted from a list of possible
inputs as inputs. Karakaya et al. [116] conducted research, namely temporal partitioning, to divide
the data into diel, diurnal, and nocturnal in order to obtain continuous records, and chose MLP as
a prediction model. Antanasijević et al. [117] utilized Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), a sensitivity
analysis method that involves repeatedly generating a probability distribution of random input
values, to ultimately create an ANN model with fewer inputs. Moreover, other input selection
techniques include correlation analysis and genetic algorithm were tested. Chen and Liu [118]
utilized sigmoid and linear transfer function in the hidden and output layer, respectively. Results
showed that ANFIS and BPNN could predict DO with reasonable accuracy. Han et al. [119] adopted
linear interpolation whose data increment was calculated by the slope of the assumed line to fill the
missing data. Then, hierarchical ELM based on a hierarchical structure was chosen to model the
DO, pH, and SS. The advantage of hierarchical ELM is able to learn sequential information online.
Results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methods. Researchers tended to divide the
training set data into 70% to 90% of the total data [39,42,49,52,72,120–127]. Iglesias et al. [35] divided
the data into training (90%) and testing sets (10%). Then, they applied three typical MLP architectures
to complete the Tur prediction whose inputs were NH3 -N, EC, DO, pH, and WT. Klçaslan et al. [128]
randomly divided the datasets and pointed out that when the data tended to be roughly periodic after
a year, the time length of data acquisition, covering a long period such as a year or more was highly
recommended in order to capture long-term variation. Yang et al. [129] found the most significant
parameters by using analysis of variance (ANOVA) techniques. Result indicated that rainfall records
were the most significant parameters for turbidity forecasting. Khashei-Siuki and Sarbazi [130] took
the normalization step to control the scale of each feature, in the same range in case the difference
of the order of magnitude will lead to the dominance of larger attributes thereby slowing down the
iterative convergence. However, they did not give clear details about normalization. Gholamreza
et al. [36] used time delay cells of TDNNs, designed based on the structure of MLPs, to deal with
the dynamic nature of sample data. Then, they applied factor analysis to select the model inputs.
Results illustrated that TDNN with 2 hidden layers of 15 neurons in each of the layers was the best
architecture. Nourani et al. [9] provided a new solution to EC and TDS prediction. When the predictive
variables were not available, researchers could realize the final predictions through modeling other
relevant variables. They utilized monthly meteorological data RF, RO, and WL to forecast EC and TDS
due to the lack of historical records of outputs. Zounemat-Kermani [82] introduced a Quasi-Newton
method, Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS), to train the parameters of MLP in SS forecasting.
Hameed et al. [60] conducted the sensitivity analysis of the obtained data and scaled it to between 0.1
to 0.9. Results indicated that RBFNN could achieve high-performance accuracy. Heddam and Kisi [47]
utilized open-source data from Eight United States Geological Survey stations (USA) and preprocessed
the data by standardization method. Several ELM models are applied for DO prediction. Yousefi [131]
discussed the Garson method to find the relative importance of each input variable. Results indicated
that including meteorological and hydrologic variables could improve the accuracy of the models
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5776 11 of 49
with fewer influential variables. Elkiran et al. [32] and Najah et al. [132] demonstrated the feasibility
of the ANFIS method in predicting river water quality. This model overcame the shortcomings of
ANN models such as overfitting and local minima, and combined fuzzy logic with ANN to provide
a method to solve uncertain problems. Sinshaw et al. [133] took interrelated and easily measurable
parameters of pH, EC, and Tur, as inputs to realize TN and TP predictions.
Liu et al. [3] pointed out that if more historical data were available [15], ANN models may provide
better predictions than a relatively small data set. Antanasijević et al. [41] tested the performance
of RNN, GRNN, and MLP in small samples prediction. Results indicated that the error of RNN
in test data was less than 10%. Besides, the error of GRNN was lower than MLP. Evrendilek and
Karakaya [55] deleted the missing data directly. Then, discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) with the
orthogonal wavelet families was applied to denoise the data measured by proximal sensors. The result
indicated that the modeling effect of using TLRN to the data after noise reduction was superior
to TLRN, TDNN, and RNN. Chang et al. [12] attempted to use NARX, a dynamic neural network,
to model ten-year seasonal water quality data. Then, 42-fold cross-validation was used to divide the
data. Results demonstrated that the NARX network outperformed BPNN because it could capture the
important dynamic features of TP data. Wang et al. [6] tested the prediction performance of LSTM,
BPNN, Online sequential (OS)-ELM in DO, and TP. The results indicated that LSTM was more accurate
and generalizable than the above feedforward ANNs. Zhao et al. [38] used an improvement of the
ESN, namely RESN, to predict the BOD and TP. This new method used the ridge regression algorithm
to calculate the output weights to solve the ill-posed problem existing in the ESN. Hu et al. [66]
fully preprocessed the acquired water quality data. They firstly imputed, corrected, and denoised
the data by using linear interpolation, smoothing which could attenuate high-frequency signals,
and moving average filtering techniques. Then, correlation analysis, which belongs to analytical
methods, was carried out. The LSTM was adopted for model establishment. Experimental results
showed that the prediction accuracy was high and could reach 98.97% and LSTM was suited for
long-term prediction. J. Liu [67] introduced Back-propagation through time (BPTT) to train the SRU
model. The main difference between SRU and RNN is the “cell state” part added in the hidden layer.
They proposed an Improved mean value method to solve the breakpoint phenomenon of the mean
value method and the linear interpolation method. Results showed that the prediction error was small,
within the range of 1%. Lim et al. [53] converted the irregular data into daily data by using a linear
interpolation method and provided a solution to abnormal data identification. They used a fixed
threshold method to set the upper and lower threshold ranges and proved that linear interpolation had
better robustness than spline interpolation, nearest-neighbor interpolation, and cubic interpolation
according to model results when water quality changed dramatically. Results showed that the removal
of abnormal data beyond the threshold value could preliminarily improve the data convergence.
Partal and Cigizoglu [134] decomposed the measured SS data into wavelet components via
DWT. The DWT-ANN method could more accurately approximate the peak values, which have lesser
distributions compared with non-peak values. Anctil et al. [135] applied MLP to forecast daily SS
and NO3 without considering missing data. They applied a self-organizing map (SOM), a stratified
method, to construct a topological map to visualize the clustered input variables, thereby ensuring that
the statistical properties of the subsets were similar. Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm [24,136–139]
and Bayesian methods were conducted to train the network. Results showed that ANN models could
achieve high accuracy. Sahoo et al. [140] used the SR and AT meteorological data to achieve the WT
prediction. They introduced micro-genetic algorithms (u GA), a creep mutation in small populations,
to update the weights. Wu et al. [141] reported that the GA-BP algorithm whose relative errors were
below 35% was more suitable for TP, TN, and Chl-a prediction than simple multivariate regression
analysis. Kişi [142] utilized neural differential evolution (NDE) models, a combination of neural
networks and differential evolution approaches, to model SS. The result showed that NDE has a low
mean square error. Ömer Faruk [71] investigated the performance of ARIMA-ANN in WT, DO, and B
prediction. Afshar and Kazemi [143] combined PSO and ANN methods in water quality parameter
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5776 12 of 49
prediction. Han et al. [1] used cross-correlation and mutual information to select the input to achieve
the prediction of BOD and DO, respectively. The conjugate gradient algorithm was carried out to train
the model. Areerachakul et al. [144] presented two cluster technique, namely K-means, fuzzy c-means
(FCM) in DO prediction. Results indicated that the performance of hybrid methods was better than
single models. Y. Wang [64] designed a missing–refilling scheme which divided the data into incidental
missing (ID) and structural missing (SD). Then, a temporal exponentially moving average was applied
to fill the missing data. They investigated the time relationship of the DO, NH3 -N univariate time
series using a bootstrapped wavelet neural network (BWNN). Aleksandra and Antanasijevi [42] used
the databases of the European Statistical Office and World Bank to complete the BOD prediction.
Ay and Kisi [43] integrated k-means clustering and MLP in daily COD concentration modeling by
using SS, pH, and WT. Result indicated that this hybrid methods performed better than MLP, RBFNN,
and two different ANFIS approaches (subtractive clustering and grid partition). Ding et al. [120]
collected 23 water quality parameters and considered the problems of data dimensionality. Therefore,
the PCA techniques was used to compress the original data into 15 aggregative indices. Then, the GA
approach was applied to optimize the parameters of BPNN. The result showed that the average
prediction accuracy was up to at least 88%. Gazzaz et al. [145] developed a data mining method,
namely re-sampling, to solve the unbalance problem. Heddam [146] recommended collecting more
than one-year water quality data, because they wanted to include all four seasons in the validation
and testing phases. Liu et al. [147] proposed a hybrid model, namely empirical mode decomposition
(EMD)-BPNN. BPNN predicted each sub-series which are IMFs and the residue decomposed by EMD.
The results demonstrated that a hybrid model could capture the non-stationary characteristics of WT
after EMD. Qiao et al. [44] scaled the datasets between -1 and 1 and then used phase space reconstruction
(PSR) of chaos theory to extract much more information from BOD datasets. Results showed that the
hybrid model, namely chaos theory-PCA-ANN, had high prediction accuracy. Sakizadeh et al. [73]
applied early stopping which is fit for small networks and datasets to determine the model structure.
Yu et al. [148] utilized 5-fold cross-validation to divide the data and applied RBFNN to fuse data
from multiple sensors. The convergence rate and the solution accuracy could be improved through
the variant of PSO (IPSO). The comparison of prediction results validated the effectiveness of the
hybrid model. Zhao et al. [149] converted the signal into an output linear system by the Kalman
filter. The result showed that this hybrid method was a good and effective approach to water quality
prediction. Huang et al. [69] simulated the nonlinearity of data by the combination of the neural
network, fuzzy logic, wavelet transform, and the GA. Results showed that this hybrid model could
handle the problems of data fluctuation. Li et al. [123] adopted the most extreme form of K-fold
cross-validation, namely leave-one-out cross-validation to divide the datasets. Zhang et al., 2017 [16]
divided the dataset into training (98%) and testing sets (2%) and adopted the PSO algorithm to
accelerate the training speed of WNN. Karaboga proved that artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithms
were more precise than GA and PSO [150]. Chen et al. [4] proposed an improved method of ABC
(IABC) which added the optimal and global optimal solution to the updated formulas. The result
indicated that the limitation of the method above was that water quality data needed to obey the
normal distribution appropriately. Li et al. [54] used sparse auto-encoder (SAE) to pre-train the hidden
layer data because SAE contained deep latent features. Qiao et al. [58] determined the structure of DBN
by growing and pruning algorithms instead of artificial experience (SODBN). Results showed that
SODBN could short running time and improve accuracy. Ta and Wei [57] applied Adam optimization
method which could handle sparse gradients on noisy problems to train the parameters of CNN.
Zhou et al. [151] focused on the Improved Grey Relational Analysis (IGRA) method which calculated
the similarity and proximity by relative area change ratio. Fijani et al. [5] used variational mode
decomposition (VMD) algorithm to decompose the highest frequency component produced by a
complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition algorithm with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN).
ELM was applied for modeling. Results indicated that this hybrid model could reduce error whether
in root mean square or mean absolute error. Jin et al. [152] proposed an improvement variant namely
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5776 13 of 49
improved genetic algorithm (IGA) to avoid the situation where excellent individuals are discarded by
the GA. Li et al. [15] introduced evidence theory, that has good data fusion ability, since it is able to
reason with uncertainty to synthesize the evidence from SRU, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), LSTM
sources in DO, pH, TP prediction, and eventually reached a certain level of belief. The improved
probability assignment function of the evidence theory, designed based on the softmax function,
could solve the failure of weight allocation problems existing in the traditional probability assignment
function. As a general framework of uncertain reasoning, the application of evidence theory can be
further extended. Tian et al. [153] combined transfer learning (TL) and ANNs approaches which do
not require a large amount of training data because TL has the ability to transfer knowledge from past
tasks to predict Chl-a dynamics. The biggest difference between TL and traditional ANNs methods is
that the former does not need to learn each task from scratch while the latter does. Results indicated
that the hybrid models enhanced the generalization ability compared with the dropout and parameter
norm penalties methods in the long-term application. At the same time, the impact of mutable data
distribution on the models was decreased. Yan et al. [154] utilized mean value method using a median
of k data before and after to correct wrong data and got the missing data by the values of model
prediction of other water quality variables at the missing point. The restricted condition of the model
was that the data were appropriately and normally distributed. Therefore, it is uncertain whether
the above method can be applied to other prediction tasks that do not meet the above conditions.
Yan et al. [68] proposed a hybrid optimized algorithm, namely PSO and GA, to optimize BPNN with
reasonable accuracy. Y. Liu [45] investigated the DO prediction, which considered a temporal and
spatial relationship. Spatial relationship refers to the spatial correlations between external variables
instead of the geographic distributions. The newly proposed attention-RNN model achieved excellent
performance whether in short-term and long-term prediction. Zounemat-Kermani et al. [63] tested the
performance of decomposition approaches, DWT and VMD, in DO prediction. They concluded that
these two methods are an alternative tool for accurate prediction when the input was combination III
and model was MLP.
5. Result
The year of the publication is analyzed at first. Figure 7 plots the number of articles published
from 2008 to 2019 each year. There is a growing number of publications since 2008 that use the ANN
models to predict the water quality, including above 50% of the papers published since 2015, despite the
fact that there are some fluctuations in the quantity of papers—which was in decline in 2010 and
2011. The increasing popularity of ANNs in the field of water resources [155] and environmental
engineering [16] may be explained by the major advantage of the ANNs—that researchers can utilize
them to model nonlinear and complex phenomena even if they do not fully understand the underlying
mechanisms [156]. The popularity of ANNs above is also in agreement with the observations of other
researchers [27,30]. Moreover, the number of papers for different prediction variables is summarized in
Figure 8. The majority of the reviewed papers used chemical water quality variables, such as DO, BOD,
and COD as outputs [30] in the systems of the river, lake, and WWTP. Furthermore, attention was also
directed towards physical variables like pH, WT, and biological variables such as Chl-a.
The number of diverse forecast lengths is shown in Figure 9. The forecast length in this review
refers to the length of time to predict in advance. For example, if researchers used the historical data
of the previous three days to predict the values of the current day, then the forecast length would be
1 [157]. However, 107 papers did not provide details about the forecast length which cast ambiguity
and doubts to researchers in parameter settings [31]. It seems ideal to utilize ANN models to capture
short-term (length = 1) relationships, as the process was carried out 30 times in 44 papers which provide
details about the forecast length, while only 10 papers consider long-term (length > 1) forecasting.
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5776 14 of 49
As mentioned in the Introduction, this review not only includes more water quality parameters but
also more extensive research scenarios compared with the previous reviews. On the whole, there are
23 types of water quality variables examined in this review. They are mainly physical, chemical,
and biological variables. In the field of water quality prediction, relatively mature sensors include
DO, WT, Chl-a, pH, EC, and NH3 -N. There are different application scenarios among the investigated
water quality variables. Table 3 summarizes the main application scenarios of various water quality
variables. Researchers conducted more prediction studies on DO, WT, Chl-a, pH, EC, NH3 -N, Tur,
and S than other water quality variables. It can be seen from Table 3 that there are simple and practical
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5776 15 of 49
sensors that can measure these water quality variables. Therefore, the extensive research of the above
variables may benefit from the wide application of these sensors [148].
Table 4 summarizes the data set sizes of feedforward and recurrent neural networks involved in
this review. According to Table 4, the number of samples applied for water quality prediction varies
from 28 [39] to 45,594 [78] which illustrates the fact that ANN models are capable to deal with different
size of the dataset. However, there has been no research studying the optimal amount of data required
for each ANN model. As can be seen from Table 4, the recurrent neural networks [55] generally need
more datasets compared with feedforward neural networks [139]. Research into the water quality
parameter prediction have focused on rivers, WWTP, lake, and reservoir. In contrast, researchers
have done little on artificial facilities, such as stream and pond. In the river system, most researchers
use feed-forward neural networks for modeling, which may be due to the fact that the river system
can be well analyzed using only the feed-forward neural network. This result also applies to WWTP
systems. In the lake system, recurrent neural networks have shown significant results. These two
kinds of neural networks have applications in reservoirs. In contrast, feed-forward neural network can
predict water quality with relatively little data. In addition to being able to perform prediction tasks,
GRNN is also suitable for small data sets (28, 32, 61, 151, 159, 265 samples) compared with other types
of ANNs [24,39–43], so researchers should pay some attention to it.
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5776 16 of 49
Categories Authors (Year) Methods Scenario (s) Time Step Dataset (Samples)
GRNN, BPNN,
[39] lake weekly 28 (6 months)
RBFNN
[40] ANN(MLP), GRNN coastal waters No details 32 (5 months)
[59] BPNN river No details 39 (3 days)
[158] ANN mine water No details 73
[97] ANN groundwater No details 97
[106] ANN(MLP) surface water No details 110
[159] MLP river No details 110 (8 hours)
[130] ANN(MLP) plain No details 122
[128] ANN groundwater monthly 124 (1 year)
[80] ANN(MLP) stream No details 132 (11 months)
[79] ANN(MLP) basin fortnightly 144 (1 year)
[131] ANN(MLP) river monthly 144 (12 years)
[121] RBFNN river weekly 144
GRNN, ANN(MLP), More than 151
[24] river monthly
RBFNN, MLR samples (6 years)
Open-source
[42] GRNN, MLR No details 159 (9 years)
data
[160] ANN(MLP) river monthly 164 (over 6 years)
[107] ANN reservoir No details 180 (3 years)
[22] ANN system No details 195 (4 years)
[161] ANN(MLP), RBFNN river monthly 200 (17 years)
[139] ANN river No details 200 (16 years)
[93] ANN river No details 232 (3 years)
Feedforward [63] CCNN, MLP river half a month 232 (12 years)
[122] ANN river No details 252 (21 years)
[113] ANN(MLP) river No details 255 (7 months)
ANN(MLP), RBFNN,
[43] WWTP daily 265 (3 years)
GRNN
[119] ELM WWTP daily 360
[75] ANN WWTP daily 364 (1 year)
[118] BPNN reservoir No details 400 (20 years)
[94] BPNN NA No details 500
[95] ANN river monthly 500 (10 years)
[10] ANN groundwater 30 minutes 818 (nearly 17 days)
[162] BPNN river No details 969
[77] MLP, RBF, GRNN Well No details 975 (16 years)
[163] ANN(MLP) stream daily 982 (6 months)
[88] MLP lake No details 1087 (6 years)
[133] ANN lake No details 1217
RBFNN, GRNN, More than 1300
[127] river No details
MLR samples (6 years)
[36] RBFNN, TDNN river monthly 1320 (10 years)
[117] GRNN river No details 1512 (9 years)
[50] MNN WWTP No details 1900
[83] ANN(MLP), RBFNN river daily 2063 (6 years)
[137] ANN river No details 3001
RBFNN, ANN(MLP), upstream and 2063 and 4765
[112] daily
MLR downstream samples (18 years)
more than 3000
[115] ANN river daily
samples (11 years)
[116] ANN lake 15 minutes 6674 (86 days)
[164] ANN river No details 13,800 (5 years)
more than 32,000
[25] GRNN river No details
samples
Open-source
[47] ELM, ANN(MLP) hourly 35,064 (4 years)
data
[78] ANN(MLP) power station 10 minutes 45,594 (2 years)
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5776 17 of 49
Table 4. Cont.
Categories Authors (Year) Methods Scenario (s) Time Step Dataset (Samples)
Elman, GRNN, monthly or
[41] river 61
BPNN, MLR semi-monthly
[12] NARX, BPNN, MLR river monthly 280 (11 years)
[26] LSTM river 12 hours 460 (14months)
[6] LSTM, BPNN lake monthly 657 (7 years)
Mariculture
[66] LSTM, RNN 5 minutes 710 (21 days)
base
Mariculture
Recurrent [67] SRU No details 710
base
[3] Elman pond No details 816 (34 days)
[153] RNN, LSTM reservoir 5 minutes 1440 (5 days)
[15] RNN, BPNN river No details 1448
[165] LSTM lake No details 1520
[54] LSTM, BPNN pond 10 minutes 2880 (20 days)
[38] RESN WWTP No details 5000
[45] RNN Freshwater 10 minutes 5006 (1 year)
[55] TLRN, RNN, TDNN lake 15 minutes 13,744 (573 days)
[154] LSTM WWTP hourly 23,268 (4 years)
The artificial neural network has been widely used in water quality prediction. If researchers only
look at the modeling process, various studies follow some of the steps of the modeling framework
below (see Figure 10).
The second type of modeling is when the output variables are difficult to measure, and the researchers
can use easily measured water quality or meteorological data to complete the prediction. In the first
two modeling types, the researchers utilized univariate historical information. However, for the third
type of modeling, the researchers used multivariable historical information. Overall, the researchers
utilized water quality, atmosphere, and other variables such as location data for the prediction task.
The above three modeling types are analyzed from the perspective of data. If analyzed from the
perspective of studying the temporal and spatial relationship between input and output, the above
modeling types can be further divided.
no uniform rules for how to divide the training set, the validation set, and the test set which also
applies to the division of training sets and test sets. Most researchers divided the data either by domain
knowledge or in any arbitrary manner. In the majority of the reviewed papers, the data set was divided
into the training and testing two parts (see the ninth column in Appendix A). The division range of the
training set is from 50% to 98% [16], and the test set varies from 2% to 50% [105]
6. Discussion
water quality data is rather limited. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to open up their own data
resources in the future to make contributions to themselves, others, and society.
Data volume demand: According to the results of the existing literature review, there is no
systematic research to investigate how to determine the optimal number of samples required for
each type of ANN model. In general, RNN requires more data than feedforward artificial neural
networks. In addition, GRNN in feedforward artificial neural networks can handle small sample
problems. When researchers use the RNN method to make water quality predictions, they need about
a thousand pieces of data. When the researchers utilized the feedforward artificial neural networks
method to make the prediction, about 500 pieces of data are needed. When researchers used the GRNN
method to make predictions, they need about 100 pieces of data. When researchers want to make
long-term forecasts of water quality data that are periodic after a year, at least one year of data needs to
be collected. This also applies when researchers want to include four seasons in the model validation
and testing phase.
and testing is 60%, 20%, 20%, and 50%, 25%, 25%. Such methods based on the expertise of researchers
or divide data in arbitrary ways has certain universality. However, this approach has not promoted
the development of data partitioning methods. It is always difficult to determine the number of K
for common K-fold cross-validation, as the results may have a considerable bias [169]. Therefore,
leave-one-out cross-validation, the most extreme form of K-fold cross-validation, should be encouraged
for use because it has been shown to provide a good estimation of the model’s true generalization
capabilities in the case of fewer training data or more model parameters despite the limited usage.
Data preprocessing problem: Most studies use the normalization method for pre-processing data,
but it does not disclose specific details. This is probably due to the use of built-in functions to deal
with normalization in many platforms. However, this basic information should be clearly defined,
because different scaling ranges have different effects on the final result of the model. In the face
of missing data, researchers will simply delete it. This approach is not worth advocating because
data is precious. Researchers can adopt appropriate populating strategies to deal with missing data.
Some imputation methods besides linear interpolation—such as the improved mean value method
that can solve the breakpoint phenomenon of linear interpolation, and designing filling schemes such
as missing–refilling schemes or gap-filling to obtain continuous records—are worthy of exploring.
The restricted condition of the model forecasting methods using prediction values to fill the missing
vales is that the data are appropriately and normally distributed. Therefore, it is uncertain whether
the above method can be applied to other prediction tasks that do not meet the above conditions.
Existing literature has shown that the identification of error and abnormal data is a difficult task
because they are difficult to define in water quality prediction. How to deal with such data still needs
further exploration by researchers.
Model structure selection problem: Many researchers utilized MLP architectures in ANN to
complete prediction tasks between 2008–2019. This result is as same as the conclusion of the review
between 1999 to 2007, which may be due to the fact that the MLPs architecture has the advantage of
being easy to use, and they can approximate any relationship between input(s) and output(s) through
the typical three layers [81]. Global methods (see Table 9), obtaining topology structure and network
weights, are drawing the attention of researchers—in contrast to the previous review [27]. It must
be noted that the GA, PSO, and ABC methods are typical examples of evolution-related methods.
In general, evolutionary methods are combined with ANNs to meet different constraints.
Much effort has been made regarding the data-intensive methods, while the model-intensive and
technique-intensive approaches were implemented relatively infrequently. Wavelet analyses were
widely used in data-intensive methods, while the decomposing approaches were used less. This may
be because wavelet analysis has the ability to extract the trends, discontinuities, and breakdown points
of the original data. Furthermore, it is also able to process signals by compressing or denoising.
In recent years, CNN, as a new feedforward neural network method, has been used in water
quality prediction. However, its application is rather limited. Researchers can further expand CNN’s
reach. RNN has good memory ability, so it can make full use of historical information and lay
a solid foundation for realizing long-term prediction of water quality. Hybrid Models should be
further developed because they are not a substitute for traditional technologies, but a combination
of their strengths. Researchers can refer to the ensemble approaches, transfer learning technology,
and evidence theory in the literature to improve the prediction accuracy and generalization ability,
and accommodate uncertainty.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization and review framework, Y.C.; original draft preparation and writing,
L.S.; review and editing, Y.L., L.Y.; supervision, D.L. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of
the manuscript.
Funding: This research was funded by the Next Generation Precision Aquaculture: R&D on intelligent
measurement, control technology (Project Number:2017YFE0122 100).
Acknowledgments: The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable and insightful
comments on an earlier version of this manuscript.).
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5776 26 of 49
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