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    Thayer Gauging The Power of To Lam

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    Carlyle Alan Thayer
    This Background Brief considers four questions: how powerful is To Lam in the Vietnam Communist Party? Is To Lam strengthened or weakened by his appointment as state president? how powerful is to To Lam’s clique within the CPV and does he face any serious challenges? and is it good or bad if To Lam became the most powerful man in Vietnam?

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    Thayer Gauging The Power of To Lam

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    Carlyle Alan Thayer
    141 views2 pages
    This Background Brief considers four questions: how powerful is To Lam in the Vietnam Communist Party? Is To Lam strengthened or weakened by his appointment as state president? how powerful is to To Lam’s clique within the CPV and does he face any serious challenges? and is it good or bad if To Lam became the most powerful man in Vietnam?

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    Thayer Gauging the Power of To Lam

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    This Background Brief considers four questions: how powerful is To Lam in the Vietnam Communist Party? Is To Lam strengthened or weakened by his appointment as state president? how powerful is to To Lam’s clique within the CPV and does he face any serious challenges? and is it good or bad if To Lam became the most powerful man in Vietnam?

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    141 views2 pages

    Thayer Gauging The Power of To Lam

    Uploaded by

    Carlyle Alan Thayer
    This Background Brief considers four questions: how powerful is To Lam in the Vietnam Communist Party? Is To Lam strengthened or weakened by his appointment as state president? how powerful is to To Lam’s clique within the CPV and does he face any serious challenges? and is it good or bad if To Lam became the most powerful man in Vietnam?

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    Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

    ABN # 65 648 097 123


    Gauging the Power of To Lam
    June 12, 2024

    We request your assessment of To Lam's power within the Vietnam Communist


    Party following his ascension to the second top spot in the leadership hierarchy.
    Q1. How powerful is To Lam within the Party, given that he succeeded in toppling
    Vo Van Thuong and Vuong DInh Hue?
    ANSWER: To Lam must be ranked among the three most powerful men in
    Vietnam due to his seniority and standing within the Vietnam Communist Party’s
    Politburo. The other two men are General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and Prime
    Minister Pham Minh Chinh.
    However, Lam’s power is not without checks. He must secure majority support
    in the Politburo and Central Committee for important policy decisions including
    granting him an exemption from the mandatory retirement age of 65.
    Q2. The head of state in Vietnam is largely ceremonial, while minister of public
    security has proven to be very powerful in driving the blazing furnace within the
    Party, so is To Lam weakened or strengthened after his ascension to Presidency?
    ANSWER: To Lam’s day-to-day power has been slightly weakened because he no
    longer has direct authority over the Ministry of Public Security. Of course, he can
    rely on his proteges who remain in the ministry including the new Public Security
    Minister Luong Tam Quang to support him.
    Lam’s over all power has been strengthened because he created a vacuum in
    the leadership by deposing six senior members of the Politburo.
    Lam has strong credentials for having given exemplary service in his role as
    Minister of Public Security to Trong’s campaign against corruption and negative
    phenomena. At present, he looks to be the odds on favourite to become the next
    party leader.
    Q3. How big and powerful is To Lam 's clique within the Party, given his close
    subordinates Nguyen Duy Ngoc and Luong Tam Quang were promoted to higher
    posts and likely slated to be admitted to the Politburo? Does he face any serious
    challenges within the Party?
    ANSWER: The public security bloc accounts for three percent of the
    membership of the Central Committee elected at the 13th national party
    congress in 2021. However, the public security bloc was allocated only one seat
    2

    on the eighteen-member Politburo elected in 2021. With Lam’s elevation to the


    presidency, the public security slot is vacant. This is likely to change if Luong
    Tam Quang is elected by the Central Committee to fill that vacancy.
    There are a number of former Ministry of Public Security officials on the Politburo
    but is has not been established that they are a unified bloc. It can be taken for
    granted that they support the anti-corruption campaign. Besides, the Politburo
    operates largely on consensus rather than on votes between blocs.
    There was push back when a majority of the Politburo opposed taking action
    against Prime Minister Chinh for alleged corruption by his family.
    Chinh came thirty -seventh our of forty-four officials in low confidence voices
    received in the most recent National Assembly vote of confidence. This
    indicates that there are reservations held by a minority of deputies in the
    National Assembly.
    At present it is widely assumed that Lam wants to become the next party
    General Secretary. Lam does not appear to be openly lobbying for this role. We
    will only know later this year if and when Lam’s name comes up on a draft list of
    candidates for the next Central Committee.
    Q4. Is it good or bad for Vietnam if To Lam become the most powerful man in
    Vietnam?
    ANSWER: If Lam became the most powerful man in Vietnam without checks and
    balances it would be bad for Vietnam and erode the norm of democratic
    centralism. The political culture of Vietnam opposes giving one person too much
    power.

    Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Gauging the Power of To Lam,” Thayer


    Consultancy Background Brief, June 12, 2024. All background briefs are posted on
    Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
    UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

    Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
    other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
    registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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