Thayer Vietnam - US Secretary of State Blinken Pays Visit - 2

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: US Secretary of State
Blinken Pays Visit – 2
April 13, 2023
We would like to have your assesssment on U.S. Secretary Blinken's upcoming trip to
Vietnam this week and the possibility of upgrading the two countries' relationships.
Here are our questions:
Q1. Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel J. Kritenbrink on April
10 said that the Secretary Blinken’s upcoming travel to Vietnam will cover a broad
range of important issues to US-Vietnam comprehensive partnership. Do you think
this trip is part of the plan to upgrade bilateral ties to a strategic partnership?
ANSWER: Secretary Anthony Blinken’s trip to Hanoi is to lay the groundwork for an
exchange of visits by President Joe Biden and General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong.
This is a necessary but not sufficient step for the two sides to agree on raising bilateral
relations to a strategic partnership.
After President Biden and General Secretary Trong spoke, the White House Readout
stated that the “two leaders discussed the importance of strengthening and
expanding the bilateral relationship…” Nhan Dan newspaper reported that that “two
leaders will assign relevant authorities of the two sides to discuss details for further
promoting ties.”
In sum, it will become clear after the exchange visits by Biden and Trong if agreement
was reached to commence negotiations on a strategic partnership. The indications
appear favourable but the devil will be in the detail.
Q2. The Vietnam – US comprehensive partnership now is in fact much deeper than its
name, according to some observers. Therefore, a strategic partnership is just a naming
step for the bilateral ties that’s already at a higher level. What do you comment on
this? Is it ripped time now for upgrading the ties?
ANSWER: For some time Vietnamese officials have been saying that it is not what
bilateral relations are called formally but whether those relations are strategic. Some
Hanoi-based diplomatic observers state that when a head of government from a
strategic partner visits Hanoi he/she gets access to the four pillars. Comprehensive
partners are given access to three top leaders.
A formal strategic partnership will set out the details of new areas of cooperation,
expanding on the comprehensive partnership, what new mechanisms will be adopted
to implement the partnership, and a multi-year Plan of Action.
2
This year seems propitious. General Secretary Trong has laid the groundwork by first
visiting China last October. Next year American domestic politics will take centre stage.
It therefore suits both sides to raise bilateral relations.
Q3. Will other differences and issues related to human rights in Vietnam be barriers
or obstacles for the two countries’ efforts on pushing their ties to the next level?
ANSWER: The domestic politics of both countries will have an impact on negotiations
to raise relations to a strategic partnership. Some elements of the Vietnamese
leadership will be wary of drawing too close to the United State because of their long-
standing concern over “peaceful evolution.” Others will be concerned about possible
entrapment in China-United States rivalry and competition.
On the U.S. side there will be concern over the arrest of civil society activists, especially
environmentalists like Nguy Thi Khanh, because of the doubts this raises about
Vietnam’s commitment to cutting emissions. And there will be concern about curbing
freedom of expression by activists and the arrests of activists for peacefully protesting.
Q4. If the two countries confirm to upgrade their ties, what China expected to do to
interfere the process that could directly impact their plans and ties in the area?
ANSWER: China’s media has and will continue to warn Vietnam against trusting the
United States and taking any action that would harm relations with China. Chinese
officials will stress their common bond as socialist countries. In short, China will use
political-diplomatic pressure to influence the leadership in Hanoi now and during the
negotiation process to constrain its engagement with the United States.
Q5. Blinken’s trip comes as tensions flare in the South China Sea. Is there any links
between these two events as your observation?
ANSWER: Secretary Blinken’s trip to Vietnam is just one part of the Biden
Administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. The recent flare-up in the South China Sea have
more to do with U.S.-Philippines defence cooperation and the deployment of U.S.
Carrier Strike Groups to the South China Sea.
Q6. What areas of cooperation do Vietnam and the U.S. want out of a strategic
partnership?
ANSWER: A reading of the Vietnamese-language press following the Biden-Trong
telephone conversation reveals a rather long list of areas of cooperation that Vietnam
is seeking:
• Economic, science and technology cooperation as the driving force
• Balanced and sustainable trade
• Green economic transition
• New logistics/supply chains
• Increase in scholarships for Vietnamese to study in the U.S.
• Cooperation in crime prevention
• Assistance with UN peace keeping
• Digital infrastructure
3
• War legacy issues

• Defence and security
This raises the question of what the U.S. expects to get out of a strategic partnership.
Biden has signalled U.S. interest in climate, commerce, clean energy/energy
transformation, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, and human rights
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: US Secretary of State Blinken Pays

Visit – 2,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, April 13, 2023. All background briefs
are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

• War legacy issues

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: US Secretary of State Blinken Pays

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