The Astronomical Journal, 150:106 (9pp), 2015 October doi:10.

1088/0004-6256/150/4/106
© 2015. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.

EXPLORENEOS. VIII. DORMANT SHORT-PERIOD COMETS IN THE NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID POPULATION

M. Mommert1,2, A. W. Harris2, M. Mueller3, J. L. Hora4, D. E. Trilling1,5,6, W. F. Bottke7, C. A. Thomas8, M. Delbo9,
J. P. Emery10, G. Fazio4, and H. A. Smith4
1
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 6010, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA; [email protected]
2
DLR Institute of Planetary Research, Rutherfordstrasse 2, D-12489 Berlin, Germany
3
Netherlands Institute for Space Research, SRON, Postbus 800, 9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands
4
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St., MS-65, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
5
South African Astronomical Observatory, South Africa
6
University of the Western Cape, South Africa
7
Southwest Research Institute, 1050 Walnut St, Suite 300, Boulder, CO 80302, USA
8
ORAU/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; 8800 Greenbelt Rd., Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
9
Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur, BP 4229, F-06304 Nice Cedex 4, France
10
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Tennessee, 1412 Circle Dr., Knoxville, TN 37996, USA
Received 2015 February 5; accepted 2015 July 23; published 2015 September 9

ABSTRACT
We perform a search for dormant comets, asteroidal objects of cometary origin, in the near-Earth asteroid (NEA)
population based on dynamical and physical considerations. Our study is based on albedos derived within the
ExploreNEOs program and is extended by adding data from NEOWISE and the Akari asteroid catalog. We use a
statistical approach to identify asteroids on orbits that resemble those of short-period near-Earth comets (NECs)
using the Tisserand parameter with respect to Jupiter, the aphelion distance, and the minimum orbital intersection
distance with respect to Jupiter. From the sample of NEAs on comet-like orbits, we select those with a geometric
albedo pV „ 0.064 as dormant comet candidates, and find that only ∼50% of NEAs on comet-like orbits also have
comet-like albedos. We identify a total of 23 NEAs from our sample that are likely to be dormant short-period
NECs and, based on a de-biasing procedure applied to the cryogenic NEOWISE survey, estimate both magnitude-
limited and size-limited fractions of the NEA population that are dormant short-period comets. We find that 0.3%–
+2
3.3% of the NEA population with H „ 21, and (9- 5 )% of the population with diameters d 1 km, are dormant
short-period NECs.
Key words: comets: general – minor planets, asteroids: general

1. INTRODUCTION suggest an origin in or near the Kuiper Belt, most probably in

the scattered disk and Centaur populations (Duncan
The population of near-Earth objects comprises small bodies,
et al. 2004). The orbits of long-period comets are nearly
both comets and asteroids, covering a wide range of dynamical
isotropically distributed in inclination and have high eccentri-
parameters and physical properties. This variety suggests that
cities, indicating an origin in the Oort cloud (Lowry
the members of the population are a mixture of bodies of et al. 2008). Most Halley-type comets have periods
different origin and evolution. The dynamical lifetime of near- 20 < P < 200 years and can be considered the short-period tail
Earth asteroids (NEAs), which constitute the majority of the of the long-period comets (Weissman et al. 1996). Their origin
near-Earth object population, is typically of the order of is still subject to debate; models suggest an origin in the Kuiper
107 years (e.g., Morbidelli & Gladman 1998), which is Belt (Levison et al. 2006) or the Oort cloud (Wang &
significantly shorter than the age of the solar system. Therefore, Brasser 2014). In this work, we will focus on the discussion of
the existence of the NEA population implies that there must be short-period comets in the near-Earth object population, the
sources of replenishment in order to maintain the observed short-period near-Earth comets (NECs).
population. Source regions of NEAs have been identified to lie As comets approach the Sun, the increased amount of
mostly within the asteroid main belt and the transport insolation results in a rise of their surface temperatures.
mechanisms into the NEA population are well understood Sublimation of near-surface volatiles causes the development
(Wetherill 1979; Wisdom 1983; Vokrouhlický & Farinella of cometary activity in the form of a coma and a tail. Levison &
2000; Bottke et al. 2002). Duncan (1997) found that the most likely activity lifetime of
Comets have long been suspected of not only supplementing short-period comets is ∼12,000 years, which is significantly
the cometary component of the near-Earth object population, shorter than the average dynamical lifetime of short-period
but also its asteroidal component, the NEAs (Öpik 1963; comets (4.5 × 107 years, Levison & Duncan 1997) and NEAs
Wetherill 1988; Binzel et al. 1992). Comets are objects from (107 years, Morbidelli & Gladman 1998). Hence, comets that
the outer regions of the solar system that harbor ices and have have spent a significant amount of time in near-Earth space are
been perturbed by the gravitation of the giant planets into orbits likely to have ceased their activity, becoming “dormant” or
that bring them into the inner solar system. From the dynamical “extinct” comets that are indistinguishable from low-albedo
viewpoint, there are two major populations of comets: long- asteroids (Wetherill 1991). However, this is only one possible
period comets with periods P > 200 years and short-period fate of comets. Observations have shown that comets can break
comets with periods P „ 20 years. Short-period comets have up into smaller fragments (see, e.g., Boehnhardt 2004), or, as
low inclinations and interact strongly with Jupiter (Lowry recently observed in comet C/2012 S1 (ISON), disrupt
et al. 2008); their near-ecliptic orbits and short periods strongly entirely. Results by Whitman et al. (2006), however, suggest

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The Astronomical Journal, 150:106 (9pp), 2015 October Mommert et al.

that at the end of the active lifetime of short-period comets they and is approximately conserved during encounters in the
are likely to become dormant rather than to disrupt. Levison & restricted three-body problem. The Tisserand parameter with
Duncan (1997) estimate that 78% of all short-period comets are respect to Jupiter is defined as
extinct. Additionally, there may be dormant comets that aJ a
presently appear asteroidal but could once again have a TJ = +2 ( 1 - e2 ) cos i, (1 )
cometary appearance. Examples include NEA 4015 Wilson– a aJ
Harrington, which displayed cometary activity in 1949, but where a, e, and i are the semimajor axis, eccentricity, and
never since (Bowell et al. 1992; Fernández et al. 1997), and
inclination of the target body, respectively, and aJ is the
NEA 3552 Don Quixote, which was found to show cometary
semimajor axis of Jupiter (Tisserand 1896, p. 205). TJ is of
activity nearly 30 years after its discovery as an asteroid
(Mommert et al. 2014). Don Quixote has been considered an special interest in orbital dynamics as it can be used as an
extinct comet (Hahn & Rickman 1985), but it is more adequate approximate discriminator between asteroidal (TJ > 3.0) and
to describe it as a dormant comet, since it is not clear if its cometary (TJ „ 3.0) orbits. The actual TJ-boundary between
activity is persistent and feeble or episodic. Accordingly, we asteroids and comets is less strict, since TJ is only conserved in
adopt the general term dormant comets, since it is not clear if the idealized case of the restricted three-body problem. Comets
all of these objects are actually extinct. with TJ > 3.0 exist and are called “Encke-type” comets. Only a
Dormant comets in the NEA population, just like active few Encke-type comets are known and their origin is still
comets, have impacted Earth and are likely to have contributed subject to debate (Levison et al. 2005). Halley-type and long-
to the deposition of water and organic materials on its surface period comets usually have TJ < 2. In this work, we will
(Oró 1961; Delsemme 1984; Mottl et al. 2007; Hartogh
neglect both long-period/Halley-type comets and Encke-type
et al. 2011, and references therein). The determination of the
comets and only focus on short-period NECs. Levison &
physical properties and the fraction of dormant comets in
the NEA population is important in order to understand the Duncan (1997) define short-period comets as comets with
formation and evolution of the solar system and life on Earth. 2 < TJ < 3, which allows the comets to experience low-
Comets are directly linked to the outer regions of the solar velocity encounters with Jupiter. Hence, such comets are
system, which contain the most pristine objects. Since NEAs dynamically dominated by Jupiter, coining the term “Jupiter
are among the most easily accessible objects in space, dormant family comets.”
comets in near-Earth space provide us with the unique We use TJ as determined by the JPL Small-body Database
opportunity to retrieve and study potentially volatile-rich Search Engine for both NEAs and NECs. For NEAs we use the
cometary material for future resource utilitzation. same criterion that is used for the short-period NECs:
In this work, we present a search for dormant comets that 2.0  TJ  3.0 . Previous works (Fernández et al. 2005;
have an origin as short-period comets based on a statistical DeMeo & Binzel 2008; Kim et al. 2014) used the less strict
analysis and an estimation of their fraction in the NEA criterion TJ „ 3.0, potentially including a number of Halley-
population. We base our analysis on the largest sample of type comets.
physically characterized NEAs available to date.
2.2. Aphelion Distance
2. IDENTIFICATION OF DORMANT COMETS Comets have been scattered into the inner solar system as a
result of close encounters with Jupiter (Levison & Dun-
We identify dormant comet candidates in the NEA
can 1997). In order to be able to have somewhat close
population using two different statistical approaches that are
encounters with Jupiter, any object is required to have a
based on the dynamical and physical ensemble properties of
sufficiently large aphelion distance Q to feel the gravitational
known asteroids and comets. In our first approach, we identify
pull of the giant planet. The distribution of comets in TJ–Q
objects with comet-like orbits, utilizing the Tisserand parameter
space (Figure 1, left plot) suggests Q  4.5 AU, which we
with respect to Jupiter, TJ, and the minimum orbit intersection
adopt as our criterion for a cometary orbit in Q. Our criteria in
distance with respect to Jupiter, MOIDJ. In our second
TJ and Q apply to all short-period NECs but only 4.3% of the
approach we use TJ and the aphelion distance, Q, to identify
NEAs. Similar criteria have been adopted by Kim et al. (2014).
objects on comet-like orbits. From both samples, we then
identify “dormant comet candidates” as objects with low,
2.3. Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance
comet-like albedos.
Our considerations are based on the sample of known NEAs The “minimum orbit intersection distance” with Jupiter,
and short-period NECs based on the JPL Small-body Database MOIDJ, describes the shortest distance between the orbit of a
Search Engine11 as of 2015 April 28. Our sample includes body and that of the giant planet. Hence, it defines the distance
12533 NEAs and 65 NECs. Short-period NECs have been of the closest encounter both bodies can possibly have. Sosa
selected based on q „ 1.3 AU, P < 20 years, and 2  TJ  3 et al. (2012) show that comets in near-Earth space are more
(see Section 2.1 for a discussion); note that we exclude comet likely to have a low MOIDJ than asteroids (their Figure 1).
fragments from our analysis. MOIDJ of both NEAs and short-period NECs has been
calculated using the code provided by Wiźniowski & Rickman
(2013). Since MOIDJ is not a dynamical invariant, we can only
2.1. Tisserand Parameter
look at a snapshot image of the dynamical characteristics of the
The “Tisserand parameter” is a dynamical quantity that is asteroid and comet populations. The deductions we can make
diagnostic of gravitational interaction of a body with a planet are still justified, since we use a statistical approach to identify
dormant comets in the NEA population. From Figure 2 (left
11
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb_query.cgi plot) it is obvious that most short-period NECs have

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Figure 1. Left: Q as a function of TJ for near-Earth asteroids and short-period near-Earth comets. Gray dots represent known NEAs, star symbols are known short-
period NECs; red squares are ExploreNEOs targets, blue circles are NEOWISE targets, green triangles are Akari targets. We select dormant comet candidates from the
shaded area, which contains all known short-period near-Earth comets with 2.0 „ TJ „ 3.0 and 4.3% of all known NEAs. Right: distribution of NEAs for which the
albedo has been measured. Black symbols have albedos pV „ 0.064, dark gray symbols agree with the albedo limit within one standard deviation, and light-gray
symbols have higher albedos. We find 51% of the NEAs with Q 4.5 AU and 2.0 „ TJ „ 3.0 to have comet-like albedos (see Section 4).

MOIDJ  1.0 AU, which we adopt as our criterion. 97% of the determine an upper-limit albedo for short-period comets, so we
short-period NEC population, and only 3.6% of the known define our albedo limit as the mean value and add the
NEA population meet this criterion. uncertainty of 0.017, yielding pV „ 0.064. This limit includes
all the comet albedos listed in Table 1 and is comparable to, but
2.4. Albedo slightly lower than, the Fernández value (we obtain pR = 0.071
instead of 0.075), assuming a typical normalized spectral
Cometary nuclei have low geometric albedos, pV. Lamy et al. reflectivity gradient for comets of 10%/1000 Å (Lamy
(2004) compiled a list of measured cometary nuclei albedos, et al. 2004).
most of which have pV „ 0.05. In their search for extinct
cometary objects, Fernández et al. (2005) use an albedo upper
3. NEA SAMPLE
limit of pR „ 0.075, which is based on albedo determinations of
comets in the R band, compiled in Lamy et al. (2004), and an We base our search for dormant comets on NEA albedo
assumed albedo uncertainty of 30%. We take an approach that measurements from our Warm Spitzer “ExploreNEOs” pro-
is similar to that of Fernández et al. (2005), and define an upper gram (Trilling et al. 2010), as well as from the NEOWISE
limit for cometary V-band albedos based on previously (Mainzer et al. 2011) and Akari (Usui et al. 2011) programs.
measured albedos of short-period comets. In Table 1 we show As part of ExploreNEOs we performed 589 observations
the measured V-band albedos for the small number of short- (e.g., Trilling et al. 2010; Mueller et al. 2011, Trilling et al.
period comet nuclei for which this information has been 2015) of 562 different optically discovered NEAs using the
determined. From the measured albedos we determine the mean Infrared Array Camera (Fazio et al. 2004) onboard the Spitzer
albedo ápV ñ to be 0.047 ± 0.017, where the uncertainty is the Space Telescope (Werner et al. 2004) at 3.6 and 4.5 μm. For
quadratic sum of the standard deviation and the rms of the each asteroid we derive diameter and albedo using the Near-
uncertainties of the individual objects listed in Table 1. Our Earth Asteroid Thermal Model (NEATM, Harris 1998). Three
approach to estimating this uncertainty takes into account both of our targets were not considered in the papers quoted above
internal and external uncertainties, i.e., it includes the due to detector saturation. 3552 Don Quixote was saturated in
uncertainties of the individual albedo measurements as well both IRAC channels and displayed cometary activity during the
as the scatter of the ensemble of albedos. It is our intention to time of our observations (Mommert et al. 2014). Two more

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Figure 2. Left: MOIDJ as a function of TJ for near-Earth asteroids and short-period near-Earth comets. Gray dots represent known NEAs, star symbols are known
short-period NECs; red squares are ExploreNEOs targets, blue circles are NEOWISE targets, green triangles are Akari targets. We select dormant comet candidates
from the shaded area, which contains 97% of all known short-period NECs and 3.6% of all known NEAs. Right: distribution of NEAs for which the albedo has been
measured. Black symbols have albedos pV „ 0.064, dark gray symbols agree with the albedo limit within one standard deviation, and light-gray symbols have higher
albedos. In this case, we find 45% of the NEAs with 2.0 „ TJ „ 3.0 and MOIDJ  1.0 AU to have comet-like albedos.

Table 1 uncertainty. Three other targets, 2004 QF1, 152952 (2000

V-band Albedos of Short-period Comets GC2), and 162825 (2001 BO61) were too faint to be detected
Name pV Reference in the 3.6 μm band, and results are based on the 4.5 μm flux
density measurement only.
2P/Encke 0.046 ± 0.023 Fernández et al. (2000)
In order to determine accurate albedos, precise measure-
9P/Tempel 1 0.056 ± 0.007 Li et al. (2007)
10P/Tempel 2 0.03 ± 0.01 Campins et al. (1995)
ments of the absolute magnitude H (the magnitude of an object
22P/Kopff 0.042 ± 0.006 Lamy et al. (2002) at 1 AU distance from the observer and the Sun, and at zero
28P/Neujmin 1 0.06 ± 0.01 Campins et al. (1995) phase angle) and of the photometric slope parameter G are
49P/Arend-Rigaux 0.04 ± 0.01 Campins et al. (1995) crucial. In the ExploreNEOs program, we obtain H magnitudes
67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko 0.059 ± 0.02 Sierks et al. (2015) from the JPL Horizons service (Giorgini et al. 1996). The
81P/Wild 2 0.059 ± 0.004 Li et al. (2009) provided H magnitudes are notoriously unreliable (Jurić
103P/Hartley 2 0.028 ± 0.009 Lisse et al. (2009) et al. 2002; Pravec et al. 2012) and do not come with
uncertainty estimates. Therefore, we replace these H magni-
Notes. This compilation of V band albedos yields an average value of tudes by values taken from peer-reviewed publications (Hagen
ápV ñ = 0.047  0.017. The albedo uncertainty of 49P has been recalculated et al. 2015; Pravec et al. 2012) (87 updates by Hagen, 29 by
based on the diameter uncertainty given by Campins et al. (1995). Pravec), where available. Where no measured values are
available, we have to rely on the JPL Horizons H magnitudes.
targets, 4015 Wilson–Harrington and 52762 (1998 MT24) We increase our sample size by adding albedo measurements
were saturated in the 4.5 μm band, only. In order to derive flux from 471 observations of 409 different NEAs observed by the
densities from saturated images, we fit a calibrated point-spread NEOWISE program (Mainzer et al. 2011), excluding those
function (PSF) model to the extended wings of the measured NEAs for which albedo has not been measured. The Wide-field
PSF, ignoring the saturated parts of the image. This method has Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE, Wright et al. 2010) carried
been well tested on a number of saturated observations of out an all-sky survey in its 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 μm bands. The
calibration stars (see, e.g., Mommert et al. 2014, and references design of the WISE survey enables it to discover new NEAs
therein). We add an additional 5% uncertainty in quadrature to and comets in the thermal infrared, which minimizes the impact
those flux densities to account for the increased calibration of albedo dependent discovery bias. NEOWISE also measures

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the diameters and albedos of all detected objects using the both the Q and MOIDJ-selected samples there is no obvious
NEATM, using an approach that is similar to ExploreNEOs trend of lower albedo with decreasing TJ, since high albedos
(Trilling et al. 2010; Mainzer et al. 2011; Mueller et al. 2011). can be found irrespective of TJ. Interestingly, we do not find
We use updated albedos of 26 NEOWISE sample targets from any NEAs with pV „ 0.064 for 2.0 „ TJ „ 2.8 that is not in
Pravec et al. (2012) that are based on new measurements of H. either the Q or the MOIDJ-selected samples (Figure 3). We
Furthermore, we add 59 NEAs from the “asteroid catalog discuss the implications of the different albedo distributions in
using Akari” (Usui et al. 2011), which is based on an all-sky Section 5.2.
survey in two mid-infrared bands (S9W: 6.7–11.6 μm, L18W:
13.9–25.6 μm), from which diameters and albedos have been
derived using the Standard Thermal Model (Morrison & 5. DISCUSSION
Lebofsky 1979; Lebofsky et al. 1986).
The combined samples comprise 1132 albedo measurements 5.1. Assessment of the Dormant Comet Fraction in the NEA
of 869 different NEAs, representing ∼7% of the known NEA Population
population as of 2015 April. Usui et al. (2014) performed a Based on our identification of dormant short-period NEC
comparison of diameters and albedos measured for main belt candidates in Section 4, we investigate the fraction of dormant
asteroids between IRAS, Akari, and NEOWISE. They find an short-period NECs in the NEA population. The discovery of
average agreement within 10% for diameter and 22% for dormant comets through optical surveys, which discover the
albedo measurements between the three surveys. A similar majority of NEAs, is hampered for two reasons: highly
comparison of 110 NEAs observed by ExploreNEOs and eccentric, comet-like orbits mean that dormant comets spend
NEOWISE shows an equally good agreement within 6% in most of their time far from the Earth, and their low albedos
diameter and 22% in albedo on average (Trilling et al. 2015). limit their optical brightness. Both factors have to be taken into
account to obtain a reliable estimate of the dormant comet
4. RESULTS content.
In order to minimize the impact of discovery bias, we base
Of the 869 different NEAs with measured albedo, 65 have this analysis of the dormant comet fraction solely on the
2.0 < TJ < 3.0 (see discussion in Section 3). Of those, 43 meet NEOWISE sample. The nature of the NEOWISE survey as an
our additional Q criterion and 31 meet our MOIDJ criterion, all-sky survey in the thermal infrared provides a uniform
fulfilling our dynamical criteria for being cometary. Their sample of the NEA population that is much less affected by
albedos were analyzed in a second step: for both populations albedo bias than optical surveys (e.g., Mainzer et al. 2011).
we performed a weighted count of the number of objects with
Using technical details on the NEOWISE survey from Wright
pV „ 0.064. Table 2 lists all observations of asteroids for which
et al. (2010) and Mainzer et al. (2011), we produce a
at least one albedo measurement (23 NEAs) with pV „ 0.064
NEOWISE survey simulator in order to de-bias the NEA
exists. NEAs 385402 (2002 WZ2) and (2000 HD74) each have
population as observed by WISE. For a detailed description of
one measurement with pV „ 0.064 and one with pV > 0.064.
the survey simulator we refer to Appendix A.
This discrepancy is most likely caused by lightcurve effects and
Using our NEOWISE simulator, we derive the dormant
the fact that both measurements use the same H magnitude,
which is not corrected for lightcurve effects. We reduce the short-period NEC fraction in a magnitude-limited and a size-
weight of both objects in the following analysis to 0.5, whereas limited sample of the NEA population. Table 2 lists only a few
all other objects for which only pV „ 0.064 measurements exist dormant comet candidates with H > 21 that were observed by
have a weight of 1. For the Q-selected objects we hence find a NEOWISE. Hence, we decide to restrict our magnitude-limited
statistical weight of 22 for a total of 43 NEAs with measured sample to H „ 21, which includes 17 dormant comet
albedos; 22/43 = 51% (of the sample size) of the NEAs with Q candidates (see Table 2) with diameters larger than ∼400 m,
4.5 AU also have pV „ 0.064. For the MOIDJ-selected assuming an albedo of 0.047. In order to properly account for
sample, the weighted count is 14/31 (45% of the sample size). albedo and absolute magnitude uncertainties of each object, we
Note that all MOIDJ-selected asteroids with pV „ 0.064 are also vary both parameters according to Gaussian statistics. We
in the sample of Q-selected asteroids with pV „ 0.064. adopt the measured albedo uncertainty (see Table 2) as the 1σ
The overlap of those NEAs in the Q-selected (43 NEAs) uncertainty, and in the case of the absolute magnitude, we
and MOIDJ-selected (31 NEAs) samples with any albedo adopt a 1σ uncertainty of 0.2 mag, which is based on results by
value is 24 objects, which is 56% of the Q-selected and 77% Jurić et al. (2002). From 100 trials with varied physical
of the MOIDJ-selected sample. Figures 1 and 2 (left plots) properties, we find that 0.3%–3.3% (1σ confidence interval) of
support the impression that in the Q-selected NEA sample, the NEA population with H „ 21 can be considered dormant
the ratio of cometary over asteroidal objects might be lower short-period NECs.
than for the MOIDJ-selected sample. Nevertheless, the fact For our size-limited estimate of the dormant short-period
that in both dynamically selected samples about 50% of the NEC fraction we consider NEAs with diameters d 1 km, a
objects have pV „ 0.064 suggests a similar degree of mixing size range that is well-sampled by NEOWISE and nearly
between potential dormant comets (pV „ 0.064) and ordinary entirely discovered (Mainzer et al. 2011). Using the same
asteroids (any pV) for both dynamical criteria. We consider method as above, we vary the diameter and albedo within the
the Q-selected sample of NEAs with pV „ 0.064, which NEOWISE-derived uncertainties and run the simulation 100
+2
includes the MOIDJ-selected sample in its entirety, to be our times. We find that (9- 5 )% (1σ) of the NEA population with
sample of dormant short-period comet candidates in the NEA d  1 km are dormant short-period NECs. In combination with
population. the estimate of the number of NEAs with d 1 km by Mainzer
Figure 3 compares the albedo distributions of different et al. (2011), we conclude that ∼100 NEAs with diameters of
samples of NEAs with 2.0 „ TJ „ 3.0 as a function of TJ. In 1 km or more are dormant comets.

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Table 2
Dormant Short-period Near-Earth Comet Candidates

Object Name d pV TJ MOIDJ Q H Source

(km) (AU) (AU) (mag)
+0.3 +0.02
3552 Don Quixote (1983 SA) 18.4- 0.4 0.03-0.01 2.314 0.551 7.234 13.0 EN
+0.08 +0.009
5370 Taranis (1986 RA) 5.31- 0.08 0.051- 0.009 2.731 0.294 5.446 15.2 NW
+0.5 +0.009
5370 Taranis (1986 RA) 6.3- 0.5 0.037- 0.009 2.731 0.294 5.446 15.2 NW
+1.3 +0.014
20086 (1994 LW) 4.8- 1.1 0.013- 0.007 2.770 (1.197) 5.168 16.9 EN
+0.8 +0.007
248590 (2006 CS) 4.7- 0.8 0.018- 0.007 2.441 0.267 4.945 16.6 NW
+0.7 +0.07
385402 (2002 WZ2) 2.3- 0.6 0.06-0.03 2.515 (2.482) 4.638 17.0 EN
+0.1 +0.03
385402 (2002 WZ2) 1.6- 0.1 (0.11- 0.03 ) 2.515 (2.482) 4.638 17.0 NW
+0.5 +0.03
(2000 HD74) 1.9-0.5 0.03-0.02 2.567 (1.432) 4.662 18.0 EN
+0.01 +0.03
(2000 HD74) 0.83- 0.01 (0.16- 0.03 ) 2.567 (1.432) 4.662 18.0 NW
+0.04 +0.01
(2001 HA4) 1.85-0.04 0.05-0.01 2.772 (1.515) 4.814 17.6 NW
+0.2 +0.01
(2004 EB) 2.5- 0.2 0.04- 0.01 2.755 (1.138) 5.176 17.2 NW
+0.3 +0.007
(2004 YR32) 2.3-0.3 0.031- 0.007 2.725 (1.620) 5.203 17.6 NW
+4.3 +0.02
(2004 YZ23) 9.4- 3.1 0.02- 0.01 2.186 (1.722) 5.742 15.2 EN
+0.5 +0.018
(2009 KC3) 2.2- 0.5 0.023- 0.018 2.728 0.248 5.451 18.0 NW
+0.03 +0.009
(2009 WF104) 2.23- 0.03 0.047- 0.009 2.800 (1.342) 5.096 17.2 NW
+0.01 +0.008
(2009 WO6) 2.49- 0.01 0.034- 0.008 2.785 0.810 4.881 17.3 NW
+0.02 +0.006
(2009 XE11) 2.72- 0.02 0.038- 0.006 2.796 0.952 5.336 17.0 NW
+0.01 +0.003
(2010 AG79) 0.89- 0.01 0.018- 0.003 2.814 0.858 4.587 20.2 NW
+0.02 +0.002
(2010 DH77) 0.63- 0.02 0.009- 0.002 2.516 (1.401) 5.581 21.8 NW
+0.02 +0.003
(2010 DH77) 0.52- 0.02 0.012- 0.003 2.516 (1.401) 5.581 21.8 NW
+0.01 +0.009
(2010 FJ81) 0.42- 0.01 0.049- 0.009 2.341 0.577 6.056 20.8 NW
+0.1 +0.02
(2010 FJ81) 0.5- 0.1 0.03-0.02 2.341 0.577 6.056 20.8 NW
+0.01 +0.004
(2010 FZ80) 0.87- 0.01 0.018- 0.004 2.755 0.509 4.796 20.3 NW
+0.03 +0.009
(2010 JL33) 1.78-0.03 0.047- 0.009 2.910 0.898 4.637 17.7 NW
+0.2 +0.004
(2010 LR68) 2.3- 0.2 0.017- 0.004 2.923 0.606 4.882 18.3 NW
+0.01 +0.005
(2010 LV108) 0.23- 0.01 0.029- 0.005 2.994 0.517 4.553 22.6 NW
+0.01 +0.007
(2010 GX62) 0.62- 0.01 0.041- 0.007 2.757 0.885 5.031 20.2 NW
+0.01 +0.002
(2010 GX62) 1.12- 0.01 0.012- 0.002 2.757 0.885 5.031 20.2 NW
+0.7 +0.011
(2011 BX18) 3.0- 0.7 0.012- 0.006 2.793 0.985 4.976 18.0 EN

Notes. NEAs with orbits and albedos that resemble those of short-period NECs (2  TJ  3.0 and (Q  4.5 AU or MOIDJ  1.0 AU) and pV „ 0.064). For each
object we list its diameter d, geometric albedo pV, TJ, MOIDJ, Q, absolute magnitude H, and source reference of the albedo measurement. Values in parentheses signal
that the respective criterion has not been met (see Section 2).
References. EN: ExploreNEOs (this work; Trilling et al. 2010, Trilling et al. 2015, Mommert et al. 2014); NW: NEOWISE (Mainzer et al. 2011; Pravec et al. 2012);
AK: Akari (Usui et al. 2011).

We note that these estimates differ significantly. We attribute partly overlaps with their estimate, covering nearly the same
this discrepancy to two different effects. Due to the albedo- range in magnitude (we use H „ 21). Fernández et al. (2005)
dependence of the absolute magnitude and the wide range of based their assessment on albedo measurements of 10
albedos in the NEA population, high-albedo NEAs are over- dynamically selected NEAs. Their sample selection was solely
represented in the magnitude-selected sample. Hence, one based on observability, is therefore not de-biased, and has to be
would expect a smaller fraction of dormant comets in the assumed to be magnitude-limited. From their target sample
magnitude-selected sample, compared to the size-selected one. they selected objects on comet-like orbits with TJ „ 3.0 and
Furthermore, one has to account for the different slopes of the albedos pR „ 0.075. They find 4% of all NEAs to be of
size-frequency distributions of NEAs and comets (compare to, cometary origin. Our magnitude-limited result, 0.3%–3.3%, is
e.g., Meech et al. 2004; Mainzer et al. 2011, Trilling et al. slightly lower than their result. DeMeo & Binzel (2008) based
2015), the latter of which is more shallow due to the
their analysis on 39 NEAs with TJ „ 3.0. In order to identify
disintegration of small cometary objects with low perihelion
cometary object candidates, they either require pR „ 0.075 or a
distances. We find that the uncertainties we obtain for both
fractions are well within the confidence ranges we derive in C, D, T, or P taxonomic classification of the object.
Appendix A.2. Furthermore, they base their result on the assumption that
We compare our findings with earlier estimates of the 30% of all NEAs with d 1 km have TJ „ 3.0 (Stuart 2003).
dormant comet fraction in the NEA population. Bottke et al. They find that (8 ± 5)% of all NEAs with d 1 km are
+2
(2002) used dynamical simulations of a de-biased synthetic dormant comets. We find that (9- 5 )% of NEAs with d 1 km
NEA population to estimate the fraction of cometary objects in are dormant comets which is in good agreement with their
the NEA population and found a fractional content of (6 ± 4)% result. Whitman et al. (2006) estimate a total of ∼75 dormant
in the magnitude-limited NEA population with 13 < H < 22. comets in the NEA population with H < 18. Assuming an
Our magnitude-limited estimate, 0.3%–3.3%, is lower than but albedo of 0.047, this magnitude limit is equal to sizes of

6
The Astronomical Journal, 150:106 (9pp), 2015 October Mommert et al.

Figure 3. Albedos of NEAs with 2.0 „ TJ „ 3.0 as a function of TJ for samples selected based on Q and MOIDJ, as well as the exclusive sample (“Other NEAs”).
Black symbols refer to NEAs with pV „ 0.064, dark gray symbols to objects with pV − σ „ 0.064 (where σ is the lower 1σ albedo uncertainty), and light gray symbols
to objects with pV > 0.064. The dashed line indicates pV = 0.064, our albedo upper limit for comet-like albedos. For objects with more than one albedo measurement,
the individual datapoints are connected with lines. We do not find any low-albedo NEAs with TJ „ 2.8 that are neither in the Q nor the MOIDJ-selected samples. For
the sake of readability, error bars are not shown; typical albedo relative uncertainties are of the order of 50%.

d > 1.5 km. Our size-limited estimate infers a total of ∼100 are likely to have higher than cometary albedos, accounting for
dormant comets in the NEA population with d 1 km, which the observed albedo diversity.
is of the same order of magnitude. We also compare the albedo distributions of NEAs in the Q
and MOIDJ-selected samples with those “other” NEAs that are
in neither of the two samples. We find that none of the “other”
5.2. Albedo Distribution of NEAs on Comet-like Orbits NEAs with measured physical properties and 2.0 „ TJ „ 2.8
In Figure 3 we compare the albedo distributions of the Q and has a low albedo (pV „ 0.064). We estimate the probability of
MOIDJ-selected samples as a function of TJ. Fernández et al. any interlopers, non-cometary NEAs with 2.0 „ TJ „ 2.8 and
(2005) found that of the nine NEAs they analyzed with 2.0 „ pV „ 0.064, to not meet either the Q or the MOIDJ criterion.
TJ „ 3.0 (six of their own from which we exclude 2008 OG108 Based on the 23 dormant short-period NEC candidates with 2.0
for being a comet, and four from the literature), 44% have „ TJ „ 2.8, the probability of a newly discovered NEA with
nominal albedos pR „ 0.075 and 66% have albedos pR „ 0.075 the same properties not to be dormant short-period NEC
within the uncertainties. We find that ∼50% of NEAs on candidate is „ 1/(23 + 1) = 4%. We conclude that any NEA
comet-like orbits also have comet-like albedos, which is in with 2.0 „ TJ „ 2.8 and pV „ 0.064 has a 96% probability to
good agreement with their result. Fernández et al. (2005) have be of cometary origin.
two NEAs in their sample with TJ „ 2.6, both of which have
comet-like albedos, potentially suggesting that NEAs with TJ „
2.6 are more likely to have comet-like albedos. We find that the 6. CONCLUSIONS
ratio of comet-like albedos to non-comet-like albedos is From our search for dormant short-period NECs in the NEA
approximately constant for the intervals 2.0 „ TJ „ 2.6 and population we can draw the following conclusions.
2.6 „ TJ „ 3.0. Hence, the findings from this work and others
(Fernández et al. 2005; Kim et al. 2014) suggest that the albedo 1. We identify 23 NEAs with orbits and albedos resembling
distribution of NEAs on comet-like orbits is less strictly those of short-period NECs that can be considered
correlated to the dynamical distribution than previously dormant short-period NECs.
expected. This heterogeneity implies that not all NEAs on 2. From a de-biasing of the NEOWISE survey, we find that
+2
comet-like orbits have a cometary origin. Potential asteroids 0.3%–3.3% of the NEAs with H „ 21 and (9- 5 )% of
that move on supposedly comet-like orbits have been identified those with d 1 km can be considered dormant short-
by Fernández et al. (2014), who performed orbital integrations period NEC candidates. The magnitude-limited fraction is
of a sample of NEAs on comet-like orbits. Most of these slightly lower than earlier estimates, whereas the size-
objects, which probably originate from the asteroid main belt, limited fraction agrees with earlier estimates. We estimate

7
The Astronomical Journal, 150:106 (9pp), 2015 October Mommert et al.

that ∼100 NEAs with diameters of 1 km or more are matrix S = (a × e × i × d × pV), according to their orbital and
dormant short-period NECs. physical properties, i.e., each cell of the matrix holds the
3. We find that only ∼50% of our sample NEAs on short- number of objects with a specific set of properties. Note that d
period NEC-like orbits have comet-like albedos, suggest- can be replaced by H in matrix S if the simulation is performed
ing mixing between cometary and asteroidal objects on a magnitude-limited instead of a size-limited sample; for the
among our sample targets. However, we find that any sake of simplicity we will only use d in the following
NEA with 2.0 „ TJ „ 2.8 and pV „ 0.064 has a 96% discussion. The set of actual NEOWISE detections throughout
probability to be of cometary origin. the cryogenic part of the WISE mission is read into a similar
matrix, R = (a × e × i × d × pV).
M.M. acknowledges support by the DFG Special Priority For each object in the input NEA population we determine
Program 1385, “The First 10 Million Years of the solar system its geocentric position for each day during the cryogenic part of
—a Planetary Materials Approach.” We would like to thank the WISE mission (2010 January 14–August 5; 203 days) using
two anonymous referees for useful suggestions that led to the Python package PyEphem.12 WISE orbits in a low-Earth
significant improvements of the manuscript. Support for this polar orbit and observes at 90° solar elongation (Wright
work was provided by NASA awards NNX10AB23G and et al. 2010). Hence, we determine times for which each object
NNX12AR54G. This work is based in part on observations is in quadrature relative to the Earth. For each quadrature
made with the Spitzer Space Telescope, which is operated by situation, we perform a more thorough check for WISE
the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technol- observability: for each 11 s timestep (WISE observation
ogy under a contract with NASA. This publication makes use cadence, Wright et al. 2010), we check if the objectʼs position
of data products from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, coincides within 23′. 5 (half-width of the WISE field of view) of
which is a joint project of the University of California, Los the WISE pointing. The declination of WISE is assumed to
Angeles, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute follow a polar rotation with a period of 94.3 minutes, which has
of Technology, funded by the National Aeronautics and Space been derived from the orbital properties given by Wright et al.
Administration. This research is based on observations with (2010). In accordance to the NEOWISE moving object pipeline
Akari, a JAXA project with the participation of ESA. Support specifications (Mainzer et al. 2011), we require each potentially
for this work was provided by NASA through an award issued detectable NEA to appear in at least five fields and to have a
by JPL/Caltech. moving rate of 0 °. 06–3 °. 2 day−1. This approach is simplified in
Facilities: Spitzer (IRAC). such a way as it neglects the details of WISE pointing, e.g., with
respect to the moon.
In a second step, we estimate the thermal-infrared brightness
APPENDIX A
of each potentially detectable object during each observability
NEOWISE SURVEY SIMULATOR
window. For each occassion in which an object is present in the
We simulate the detectability of NEAs through the WISE all- WISE field of view, we derive its thermal emission at
sky survey (Wright et al. 2010; Mainzer et al. 2011) in order to wavelengths 11.5608 μm (W3) and 22.0883 μm (W4) using
account for biases inherent to the survey. The results of the the NEATM (Harris 1998) and based on the physical and
simulator are utilized to obtain a picture of the NEA population orbital properties of the object. The predicted thermal flux
that is much more complete and less prone to discovery bias. densities are compared to the measured sensitivity of the
We determine the detection efficiency for WISE as a function of respective band (Equation (3) in Mainzer et al. 2011) and the
orbital and physical properties of the NEA, based on a detection probability in each band (PW 3, PW4) is derived. The
simulated input NEA population, a simplified model of the final detection probability of one object is defined as
WISE observation strategy (Wright et al. 2010), and the WISE max (PW 3, PW 4 ) over the cryogenic mission phase.
detection efficiency in its most sensitive bands, W3 and W4 The detection probabilities of all objects from the input NEA
(Mainzer et al. 2011). The de-biased NEA population is then population are summed up in a matrix similar to S,
derived by dividing the sample of NEAs that were actually P = (a ´ e ´ i ´ d ´ pV ). The detection efficiency is
observed by WISE in its cryogenic mission phase (Mainzer derived as E = P S in an element-wise matrix division.
et al. 2011) by the derived detection efficiencies. We base this Finally, the de-biased population, D, is derived by dividing the
analysis solely on the cryogenic part of the WISE mission, sample of NEAs observed during the cryogenic part of the
which provides data from the most sensitive bands (W3 WISE mission by the efficiency matrix, D = R E (ele-
and W4). ment-wise).

A.1 Method A.2 Consistency Check

Each object of the input NEA population is characterized by We test the consistency of the NEOWISE simulator with the
a set of orbital parameters (semimajor axis, a, eccentricity, e, real NEOWISE survey using two different tests. The first test
inclination, i, the longitude of the ascending node, Ω, the compares the compatibility of simulator detections with the real
argument of the perihelion, ω, and the mean anomaly, M, at the survey using two exclusive samples: the sample of objects that
epoch) and physical properties (absolute magnitude, H, albedo, was detected during the cryogenic part of the NEOWISE
pV, diameter, d, and thermal model beaming parameter η). Our program (Mainzer et al. 2011) (“NEOWISE sample,” 471
input NEA population consists of 100,000 NEAs derived with detections) and those objects that were observed by the Spitzer
the NEA model by Greenstreet et al. (2012), to each of which Space Telescope in the framework of the ExploreNEOs
we randomly assign physical properties that are in accordance program (Trilling et al. 2010), but not by the NEOWISE
with the distributions in H, pV, and η found by Mainzer et al.
(2011). The synthetic input NEA population is summed up in a 12
https://pypi.python.org/pypi/ephem/

8
The Astronomical Journal, 150:106 (9pp), 2015 October Mommert et al.

program (“ExploreNEOs-not-NEOWISE,” 460 detections). Fernández, Y. R., McFadden, L. A., Lisse, C. M., et al. 1997, Icar, 128, 114
Ideally, the NEOWISE simulator detects all objects in the Giorgini, J. D., Yeomans, D. K., Chamberlin, A. B., et al. 1996, BAAS,
NEOWISE sample and none of those objects in the 28, 1158
Greenstreet, S., Ngo, H., & Gladman, B. 2012, Icar, 217, 355
ExploreNEOs-not-NEOWISE sample. For this test, we use Hagen, A. R., Trilling, D. E., Penprase, B. E., et al. 2015, AJ, submitted
the actually measured physical properties (diameter, albedo, Hahn, G., & Rickman, H. 1985, Icar, 61, 417
and η), as well as the real orbital elements for each object and Harris, A. W. 1998, Icar, 131, 291
run the simulation over the duration of the cryogenic WISE Hartogh, P., Lis, D. C., Bockelée-Morvan, D., et al. 2011, Natur, 478, 218
Jurić, M., Iveziź, Ž, & Lupton, R. H. 2002, AJ, 124, 1776
mission phase. We derive the completeness of each sample by Kim, Y., Ishiguro, M., & Usui, F. 2014, ApJ, 789, 151
summing up the detection probabilities of the individual objects Lamy, P. L., Toth, I., Fernandez, Y. R., & Weaver, H. A. 2004, in Comets II,
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(12% false negatives) are detected by our simulator and only Lamy, P. L., Toth, I., Jorda, L., et al. 2002, Icar, 156, 442
Lebofsky, L. A., Sykes, M. V., Tedesco, E. F., et al. 1986, Icar, 86, 239
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