CLIMATIC CHANGE EFFECT ON FLOOD

Submitted to:
Sir Nisar A Sani

Submitted by:
Ayesha Zahid
Roll no. 31651017
Sec-B

Date: June 3, 2021

Architecture Department
Lahore College for Women University
 Climatic Change on Floods:

Introduction:

Pakistan continues to suffer from natural hazards that threaten to affect the lives and livelihood
of its citizens. Due to its unique geo-climatic conditions, Pakistan is one of the most disaster-
prone countries in the world and undergoes natural disasters including floods, earthquakes,
landslides, cyclones, and drought. According to a study, over 40% of landmass of Pakistan is
vulnerable to earthquakes, 6% to cyclone, 60% to floods and 25% of the Barani land under
cultivation is vulnerable to drought.
Pakistan is one of the countries with the highest annual average number of people physically
exposed to floods, which occur normally due to storm systems that originate from Bay of Bengal
during the monsoon from July to September.
The storms originating from Bay of Bengal passing over lower Central India and Rajputana,
enter Pakistan and continue towards North into Kashmir.

How Climate Change Contribution in Flood?

 More rain has fallen during the heaviest downpours
 This fact is apparent when you see water vapor
hanging in the air after turning off a hot shower.
 If the emissions that cause global warming continue
unabated, scientists expect the amount of rainfall
during the heaviest precipitation events across
country to increase more than 40 percent by the end
of the century.

Flooding Effects:
Social Effects:
 7 million people homeless and broke.
 Many people living in temporary shelter.
 Agricultural resources have been destroyed.
 Food shortages are a main concern and cause food riots
between the Pakistan public.
 Increase threat of diseases: cholera, malaria, malnutrition.
Economic Effects:
 Widespread damage to people’s homes.
 Villages have been wiped out.
 Extensive damage to roads, buildings and irrigation
works.
 United Nations estimate of rebuilding the country’s
damage will be billions of dollars.

Political Effects:
Pakistani Government facing the threat of being destabilized due to unhappiness brought on by
the following problems:
 Economic problems. Living conditions.
 Rising transport and food cost

2010 Pakistan Floods:

 The Pakistan floods began on the 29th July 2010.
 Floods occurred as a result of unusually heavy monsoon rains
 1600+ deaths.
 Affected 12 million people in the Punjab and Baluchistan provinces.
 Affected 2 million people in the Sindh province. (United Nations Figures)

Government Management:
The Government's primary focus is rescue and relief. After each disaster episode the government
incurs considerable expenditure directed at rescue, relief and rehabilitation. United Nations
department for international strategy for disaster reduction is now focusing on flooding
management for the future.
Poor management of NDMA:
Floods of 2010 was slow onset disaster in which damage to life and property can be attributed to
NDMA and the government of Pakistan. Because in slow onset disaster damages can be
minimized if a country has disaster management system in place (like early warning system,
hazard assessment, risk calculation etc.) Further, political differences amongst federal and
provincial governments and breeching of channels by the landlords added insult to the injury by
making the floods, a complex disaster.
Relief efforts:
At the time, when poor management policy of NDMA and the government left the entire country
under water, civil society came upfront to manage the aftereffects of flood.
 International counterparts, assisted by UN and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs),
help the flood-affected people by providing them food, medicine and shelter.
 Thus, the second and third wave of loses was timely managed by the civil society which
clearly speaks that the government’s management component is missing.

Shortcoming in Management:
 Flood damages to immoveable property cannot be minimized by any mean but one can
minimize the risk of a potential hazard in pre-flood period through proper system and
technology. If the government of Pakistan has built dams which are best instrument of flood
control.
 If NDMA has effective ‘national disaster management strategy’ in place which includes
countrywide early warning system, emergency management plan, hydro meteorological
hazards assessment, structural / non-structural measures, environmental impact
assessment, environmental degradation assessment and forecast, damages can be
minimized.

Damages to Agricultural Sector:

In Punjab, agriculture is the primary economic activity. The floodplain of Indus River and its
eastern tributaries along with the extensive network of irrigation canals provide favorable
conditions for agricultural activities. In the province, the agricultural products not only fulfilling
the needs of Punjab, but also supply to other parts of Pakistan and contribute to the national
economy.
These rivers have brought developments in agriculture sector, while on the other hand, in
summer the high discharge overflow the levees and cause large scale damages to agricultural
land and standing crops. In 2014, more than 10 million acres of agricultural land were affected
by flood and heavy damages recorded at district Jhang followed by Muzaffargarh (Fig. 4). Flood
water not only inundate the standing crops but it also remained stagnant for many days in the
agricultural fields which has further decreased the chances of crop survival.
In Punjab province, landholding is comparatively high and the farmers have high acreage. The
analysis reveals that in Punjab province the total affected farmers were 245, 116, out of which
highest ratio of affected farmers were registered in district Jhang and Muzaffargarh, respectively
(Fig. 5). It was found from the analysis that the total perished livestock were 754with the highest
numbers in district Gujranwala and Hafizabad (Fig. 4).
Field survey together with the general observations reveals that losses to livestock might be
higher as some villages were remote and inaccessibility were the major factor behind the poor
reporting to the district government. In Punjab, damages to major crops were estimated during
flood 2014 from satellite images using GIS. The area under different crops and the affected crop
acreage was estimated in acres, whereas yield was calculated in kilogram per acre.
As a result, production losses were quantified by comparing the previous year production per
acre (Table 1). Among these, rice and cotton were the major affected cash crops and here most of
farmers rely on these crops for their livelihood earnings and meet their expenses. After the detail
survey of the flood affected areas by PDMA Punjab, it was found that flood affected cropped
area is more than the estimated.
It was found from analysis that rice was the most affected crop in terms of acreage followed by
cotton. In terms of production losses, sugarcane was on top. The heavy losses to sugarcane were
mainly because the flood water remained stagnant for many days and as a consequence severely
affected the yield. Contrary to this, there was comparative less adverse impact on rice production
(Table 1). To overcome losses due to natural disasters, developed countries of the world have
adopted a policy of insurance but in Pakistan such and insurance policy is lacking.
Human Casualties and Affected Population:

In the study area, a considerable number of

human casualties were reported during 2014
flood. It was
found from the analysis that in Punjab province
total number of human casualties was 185 (Fig.
6),
out of which the highest number of casualties
(37) was reported from district Sialkot (Fig. 6). It
was casualties. Similarly, 23 human casualties
were occurred in district Multan and 22 in district
Narowal.
Mainly because the flood water rapidly
overflowed the Sialkot city and in effect incurred
maximum.

Over all, the human casualties are reported from

14 districts of Punjab province.
It was found from the analysis that the effective
flood forecasting and early warning system in the
flood prone areas like Punjab province can
largely reduce the human losses to a greater
extent. In the
present scenario, the flood forecasting and early
warning system at community level is the utmost
need of the day to minimize human sufferings.
The land of Punjab province is mostly fertile
floodplain formed by the Indus and its tributaries. During rainy season when water overflow the
levees, it inundates to far up areas, which often results population displacement.
Same was the
case when flood in 2014 has affected sixteen districts of Punjab province, displaced more than
2.3 million people and affected a total of 2,519 villages (Fig. 7). It was found from the analysis
that the number of affected populations were high in districts Jhang followed by Sargodha,
Gujranwala, Sheikhupura and Hafizabad, respectively (Fig. 7).

Damages to Housing Sector:

In Punjab province, the 2014 flood caused ravaging damages to the housing sector. According to
PDMA Punjab, the number of totally damaged houses was higher than the partially damaged
houses.
It was estimated that approximately 97,824 houses were fully damaged and 3,691 houses were
partially damaged. The highest number of damaged houses was reported from District Jhang
followed by Multan and Muzaffargarh districts (Fig. 8).
This devastated situation specifically calls the decision makers to
take effective flood risk reduction strategies in the province and minimize the impacts of
recurrent
flood disasters. To cope with such a menace, in future the government should also implement
building regulations and other structural mitigation strategies to prevent settlement developments
in the flood risk areas.

Conclusion:
 The study shows that in North of Pakistan the precipitation in Monsoon season have
increased over the span of last 44 years and the graphs suggest that it will increase
significantly by the end of this century. And the increased precipitation in this and its
surrounding have contributed mostly in Pakistan floods.
 The study of southern Pakistan shows that the pattern of precipitation is irregular in this
region in last 44 years. However, the mean precipitation was very low and it doesn’t indicate
that this precipitation contributed in floods. Temperature change in this region is also
insignificant.

 This study assessed the impact of the 2014 flood on socio-economic and housing sectors of
Punjab
province, Pakistan. The 2014 flood was one of the most devastating disasters; it had severely
affected the socio-economic and housing sectors of Punjab. The flood occurred because of
heavy and prolonged rainfall in the catchment areas of all the rivers that drains throughout
the province,
especially Jhelum and Chenab rivers had recorded the highest discharge beyond the channel
capacity.
This analysis revealed that the flood of 2014 had brought a wave of destruction in 16 districts
of
Punjab province and it had devastated socioeconomic condition of the entire population. The
analysis revealed that in the province more than 10 million acres of agriculture land was
affected by the 2014 flood. In Punjab province, the 2014 flood 2014 resulted in displacement
of over 2.3 million people and severely affected 2,519 villages.
 It was found from the analysis that in Punjab province the total affected farmers were
245,116, out of which highest ratio of affected farmers were registered in two districts, i.e.,
Jhang and Muzaffargarh. The analysis further revealed that
maximum damages to agricultural sector occurred in district Jhang, followed by district
Muzaffargarh. Additionally, the devastating 2014 flood also severely damaged the housing
sector.
The analyzed data revealed that approximately 97,824 houses were damaged fully and 3,691
 houses were damaged partially. As a consequence, the provincial Disaster Management
Authority had declared districts Jhang, Sargodha, Gujranwala, Sheikhupura and Hafizabad as
the most severely affected districts.
 This was mainly because, these districts were seriously suffered by the flood 2014, which
displaced millions of people and caused severe damage to agricultural land and housing
sector. The analysis further revealed that the 2014 flood had killed 185 people, out of which
maximum was reported from district Sialkot. In addition to this, thousands of livestock were
also perished and it had caused colossal financial loss worth millions of dollars to the
country’s economy. Thus, this devastating incident call for effective flood risk reduction
strategies in the province.