Project & Operations Management
Project & Operations Management
Project & Operations Management
Project
&
Operations Management
Project Management - An Overview
Project & Operations Management
Block
I
PROJECT MANAGEMENT – AN
OVERVIEW
UNIT 1
Introduction to Project Management 1-32
UNIT 2
Project Idea Generation and Screening 33-63
UNIT 3
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects 64-95
UNIT 4
Financial Analysis of Projects 96-143
UNIT 5
Project Selection 144-176
© The ICFAI Foundation for Higher Education (IFHE), Hyderabad,
July, 2014. All rights reserved
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in
a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic,
mechanical, photocopying or otherwise – without prior permission in writing from
The ICFAI Foundation for Higher Education (IFHE), Hyderabad.
For any clarification regarding this book, the students may please write to The
ICFAI Foundation for Higher Education (IFHE), Hyderabad giving the above
reference number of this book specifying chapter and page number.
While every possible care has been taken in type-setting and printing this book,
The ICFAI Foundation for Higher Education (IFHE), Hyderabad welcomes
suggestions from students for improvement in future editions.
COURSE INTRODUCTION
Project management plays an important role in an organization’s corporate
strategy. Projects enable organizations to convert their strategies into actions,
and their objectives into reality. Although many of the project management tools
are derived from other management disciplines, project management is a
specialized field, with unique management techniques such as critical path
analysis and work breakdown structures. In the present scenario, the application
of project management is no longer limited to the projects in construction and
engineering sectors; these techniques are also applied to projects in fields as
diverse as education, healthcare, and software development.
Project & Operations Management examines key issues involved in the fields of
project management and operations management. The course is divided into two
major parts.
The first part of the course introduces students to the project management
functions that are carried out at the different stages of a project’s life cycle. The
course discusses the complexities involved in handling projects and managing
the various phases of the project life cycle.
The second part of the course presents a step-by-step analysis of the activities of
operations managers and provides an understanding of the planning, organizing,
controlling, directing, motivating and coordinating activities of an operations
system in manufacturing and service organizations.
BLOCK I: PROJECT MANAGEMENT –
AN OVERVIEW
The first block of the course on Project & Operations Management provides an
introduction to project management. The block contains five units. The first unit
provides an idea about project management. The second unit focuses on the first
stage of the project life cycle, that is, idea generation and screening of projects.
The third unit discusses the market, technical and environmental analysis of
projects, while the fourth unit examines the financial analysis of projects. The
fifth unit discusses project selection.
The second unit, Project Idea Generation and Screening, deals with the
generation of project ideas and discusses the various creative techniques
involved in the generation of ideas. The unit explains the various aspects in
scanning of the business environment. It then discusses the activities that can be
carried out to generate new project ideas. The unit explains the process of initial
screening of project ideas, and about the project rating index, an evaluation
method used to streamlining the initial screening process. Finally, the unit
discusses the factors that can be used by the firms to enhance the net present
value of a project.
The third unit, Market and Technical Analysis of Projects, deals with market
analysis, demand analysis, and technical analysis of projects. Under market and
demand analysis, the unit provides an idea about situational analysis and
objectives specification, collection of data, market survey, market description,
demand forecasting, uncertainties in demand forecasting and market planning.
Under technical analysis, the unit explains technology selection, input
requirements and utilities, product mix, plant capacity and functional layout,
location of the project, machinery and equipment and consideration of
alternatives.
The fourth unit, Financial Analysis of Projects, discusses the means of financing
the project. It provides an idea about the working capital requirements and
financing. It discusses the concepts of time value of money, cost of capital,
project appraisal criteria and risk analysis in capital investment decisions.
Finally, it discusses social cost benefit analysis.
The fifth unit, Project Selection, provides the criteria for project selection
models. The unit explains the various project selection models. It discusses the
ways and techniques used to analyze the uncertainties in a project. Finally, the
unit explains project proposal.
Unit 1
Introduction to Project Management
Structure
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Objectives
1.3 Definition of Project
1.4 Project Characteristics
1.5 Project Parameters
1.6 Relationship between Project Parameters
1.7 Classification of Projects
1.8 Definition of a Program
1.9 Project Management
1.10 Project Management – Relationship with Other Management Disciplines
1.11 Relationship between Project Management and Line Management
1.12 Project Stakeholders
1.13 Organizational Influences
1.14 Socio-economic Influences
1.15 Environmental and Legal Influences
1.16 Project Phases and the Project Life Cycle
1.17 Summary
1.18 Glossary
1.19 Self-Assessment Exercises
1.20 Suggested Reading/Reference Material
1.21 Answers to Check Your Progress Questions
1.1 Introduction
In this unit, we introduce you to the concepts in project management. Men have
been planning and managing projects since the beginning of civilization. Of late,
people recognized that techniques like cost control, scheduling of activities,
resource procurement, and risk management that are relevant for the success of a
variety of projects, whether building dams, laying roads, or organizing events.
This led to the evolution of a set of unique management tools, techniques, and
methodologies, which constitute the present day ‘project management’. Project
management gained recognition as a specialized area of management about 50
years ago. Today, project management has spread from its traditional focus on
the fields of construction and engineering into sectors as diverse as education,
healthcare and software development.
Project Management – An Overview
This unit will introduce you to project management by discussing the definitions
of project, program, and project management. We will discuss the
characteristics, parameters and classification of projects. We shall then move on
to discuss the relationship between the various project parameters, between
project management and other management disciplines and between project
management and line management. Finally, we would be discussing the project
management environment including project stakeholders, organizational
influences and project life cycle.
1.2 Objectives
By the end of this unit, students should be able to:
define a project.
discuss the characteristics of a project.
identify the various project parameters, and demonstrate the relationship
between them.
classify projects.
define a program.
explain project management, and recognize the relationship of project
management with other management disciplines.
demonstrate the relationship between project management and line
management.
define project stakeholders.
identify organizational, socio-economic, environmental and legal influences.
state the project phases, and explain the project life cycle.
2
Introduction to Project Management
3
Project Management – An Overview
4
Introduction to Project Management
5
Project Management – An Overview
in the planning and implementation phases. The client or the sponsor of the
project prepares a budget based on the estimated costs of various project
activities, within which the project manager has to deliver the product.
1.5.5 Resources
Resources include the people, finances, and the physical and information
resources required to perform the project activities.
6
Introduction to Project Management
The scope and quality of a project are influenced by a variety of constraints like
time, cost, and availability of resources. The success of a project largely depends
on the project manager’s ability to keep the project in equilibrium. In a project
environment, the management prepares a project plan by estimating the
approximate time, cost, and the resources (people, equipment, land and
buildings, etc.) required to accomplish the goals mentioned in the scope and
quality of the project as required by the client/sponsor.
The project manager is given this plan describing the time, cost, and resource
allocations that are in equilibrium. But the success of the project depends on the
project manager’s ability to balance these variables according to the changes
arising from within and outside (clients) the project system. The projects usually
go off balance when clients request for changes in time frame, scope and quality.
The client may want these changes because: there is a change in the market
demand that requires adding some more features to the end product; the product
needs to be launched ahead of its due date for competitive reasons; there is loss
of key personnel or breakdown of machinery that calls for rescheduling; and a
new technology is expected in the market.
7
Project Management – An Overview
Answer:
8
Introduction to Project Management
10. Which of the following is not one of the five major phases in a project?
a. Controlling
b. Purchase management
c. Implementing
d. Closing
11. ______________ is a group of projects managed in a coordinated way to
obtain benefits not available from managing them individually.
a. Process
b. Program
c. Operation
d. None of the above
amicable working relations between the project manager and the departmental
heads who allocate resources to the project.
functional project member’s ability to report to the functional manager of the
department from where he/she comes from and the project manager for whom
he/she currently works for.
Employees of various functional departments who are selected to work
on a project usually face difficulties in reporting to multiple bosses. The
issue of who should have control over the functional employees becomes
a source of conflict between the line and the project managers. The
relations can be strained further if any one of them claims sole credit for
the success of the project or rewards for the profits generated by the
project. These conflicts can be resolved when the managers understand
their distinct roles in achieving the overall objectives of the
organization.
10
Introduction to Project Management
Project manager
11
Project Management – An Overview
Customers
Customers are those who will use or pay for the deliverable (product or service)
produced by the project. These customers may be internal or external to the
organization. It is the responsibility of the customers to be actively involved in
the project to help ensure its successful completion. For some projects it may be
difficult to identify a specific group of customers. Generally, there are three
categories of customers: internal customers, intermediate customers and external
customers.
Internal customers consist of individuals who are internal to the parent company.
In the above example, the production department is an internal customer.
Intermediate customers are usually external to the company, but they will not be
the final users of the product. Distributors and wholesalers constitute the
intermediate customers of a project. External customers are the individuals or
organizations, who pay for the final product and use it. The project team should
consider all the requirements of different categories of customers.
Sponsor
A sponsor is an individual or a group within the parent organization who arranges
the resources for the project themselves. This assistance can be in cash or kind.
The sponsor may be a senior executive or a junior manager with formal authority
who is responsible for the project. He acts as a link between the project and the
parent organization.
12
Introduction to Project Management
Parent Organization
The parent organization is a major stakeholder of the project since its employees
are directly involved in executing the project. Therefore, the project should
contribute towards achieving the corporate goals of the parent organization.
13
Project Management – An Overview
14
Introduction to Project Management
21. Which of the following aspects is looked after by the project team members
who are in charge of the administrative aspects of a project?
a. Procurement
b. Quality testing
c. Preparing status reports
d. Construction
22. Which of the following stakeholders is responsible for arranging the
resources required for the project?
a. Project manager
b. Customer
c. Sponsor
d. Parent organization
based organizations with project oriented management systems. So, the project
management team should be capable of understanding the influence of various
management systems on the project.
16
Introduction to Project Management
Chain of command: When the chain of command for a project goes against
the organizational structure, it takes more effort to bring a problem to the
notice of the manager concerned. As the project breaks through functional
boundaries, more and more functional managers are required to approve
decisions. And, if certain functional groups have competing interests, clashes
over authority can bring the progress of the project to a standstill.
Adapted from Eric Verzuh, “The Fast Forward MBA in Project Management,” John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. p 29-30.
17
Project Management – An Overview
18
Introduction to Project Management
Regulations are mandatory guidelines that lay down the necessary characteristics
of products or services. Building codes established by Roads and Buildings
(R&B) department are an example of regulations. Usually, these regulations are
drafted by various governmental regulatory agencies and are enforced by
regulatory personnel.
The project team should be cautious enough to ensure that the project meets the
standards and regulations. The early detection of deviations from standards and
regulations can help reduce project costs and duration.
1.14.2 Internationalization
Many organizations have subsidiaries in different countries. The projects
undertaken by such organizations generally cross many national boundaries.
Project managers must therefore be familiar with the political and economic
environment of the countries in which the projects are being executed. They
must also design a communication plan that enables them to manage and
coordinate the project activities that are being carried out in different countries.
1.14.3 Culture
The culture of an organization and the external environment of a project have a
significant impact on the success of the project. The culture includes the
organizational culture, work environment, and the culture of various
stakeholders of the project. The project manager should have an in-depth
understanding of the organizational culture as it has a direct influence on the
functioning of the project. The organizational environment and culture depend
on – the philosophy and managerial style of the top management; the
organizational structure of the project (functional, project-based, or matrix); the
character and maturity level of project team members i.e., achievement level,
motivation level, etc.; and the size of the project.
The culture of the project team members (their values, beliefs and convictions)
influences their attitudes towards ethics, achievement, training and supervision
and their interpersonal, problem-solving and conflict resolution skills. It also
determines their level of motivation. A good understanding of different cultural
values, languages, and special business styles and techniques would be an asset
for a project manager, especially when handling international projects.
19
Project Management – An Overview
20
Introduction to Project Management
21
Project Management – An Overview
22
Introduction to Project Management
from defining the project, through developing a plan, implementing the plan and
closing the project. A project life cycle usually specifies the technical work that
must be carried out in various phases of the project and the list of individuals and
their roles in each phase of the project. The project life cycles of many projects
share some common characteristics:
The manpower and finances required in the initial stages of the project are low.
They increase as the project progresses and gradually decrease as the project
nears completion.
The project starts with a very low probability of success. The probability of
success increases as the project passes through various phases and nears
completion.
Project stakeholders are very influential at the beginning of the project. Their
influence decreases as the project progresses.
The cost of incorporating change requests and correcting mistakes increases as
the project comes to an end.
23
Project Management – An Overview
1.17 Summary
A project is a group of unique, inter-related activities that are planned and
executed in a certain sequence to create a unique product and/or service, within
a specific time frame, budget and the client’s specifications.
Some of the characteristics of the tasks that qualify to be projects are unique
activities, attainment of a specific goal, sequence of activities, specified time and
interrelated activities.
The primary aim of a project is to deliver a product and/or service to a client
within the specified time, budget (resources and cost) and according to the
quality and performance specifications. Some common constraints that
influence a project are scope, quality, time, cost, and resources.
The scope and quality of a project are influenced by a variety of constraints like
time, cost and availability of resources. The success of a project largely depends
on the project manager’s ability to keep the dynamic system (project) in
equilibrium according to the changes arising from within and outside the project
system.
Projects can be classified based on their characteristics such as business value,
risk level, time span, complexity of tasks and the monetary value of the project.
A program is a group of projects managed in a coordinated way to obtain
benefits not available from managing them individually. Since a program is a
collection of different projects, it has wider scope than an individual project.
Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques
to project activities in order to meet or exceed stakeholder needs and
expectations.
Project management has evolved as a specialized science over a period of time,
though it has derived most of its knowledge from other management disciplines.
Project management like general management involves all aspects of planning,
organizing, implementing, and controlling, apart from techniques like critical
path analysis and work breakdown structures that are unique to its own.
In many strategic projects, the function of project management will involve
disciplines like finance, personnel, operations, purchase and logistics, R&D, and
marketing.
The project manager has to maintain good relations with line managers to ensure
a smooth flow of resources. He/she should exercise judicious control over the
resources allocated to the project from various functional departments.
24
Introduction to Project Management
Project stakeholders are individuals and organizations who are actively involved
in the project, or whose interest may be positively or negatively affected as a
result of project execution or successful project completion.
The major stakeholders of any project include project manager, customers,
project team member, sponsor, and parent organization.
Organizations that initiate a project will have an influence on the
implementation of the project. Some of the major aspects of large organizations
that influence projects are – organizational systems, organizational culture and
style, and organizational structure.
A wide range of socio-economic issues influence projects such as standards and
regulations, internationalization, and culture.
Impact of the environment on the project should be assessed before and after a
project has been undertaken. Also, analyzing the impact of a future project on
the environment will help the project manager define rational goals for the
project and the organization.
Organizations generally divide a project into various project phases to help
management have better control over the project and to coordinate the project
activities with those of the organization. All the project phases put together
comprise the project life cycle.
A project phase is a collection of related project activities, which result in the
production of one or more major project deliverable. These phases are arranged
in a sequence to enable better understanding of the project.
The project life cycle is a collection of generally sequential project phases. It
represents the linear progression of a project, from defining the project, through
developing a plan, implementing the plan and closing the project.
1.18 Glossary
Functional organization structure: A hierarchical structure in which the
employees are grouped into departments according to their areas of
specialization, e.g., mechanical, engineering, electrical engineering, production,
marketing, accounting etc.
Matrix organization structure: A hierarchical structure that combines the
characteristics of functional and project-based organizational structures. The
project managers and functional managers are jointly responsible for assigning
priorities and for directing the work of individuals assigned to projects.
Program: A group of projects managed in a coordinated way to obtain benefits
not available from managing them individually.
Project life cycle: A collection of generally sequential project phases. The
number of project phases is determined by the control needs of the project
organization.
Project management: The application of knowledge, skills, tools and
techniques to project activities in order to meet or exceed stakeholder needs and
expectations.
25
Project Management – An Overview
27
Project Management – An Overview
3. (c) Project
A project is a group of unique, inter-related activities that are planned and
executed in a certain sequence to create a unique product or service, within a
specific time frame, budget, and the client’s specifications. Operations refer
to the operating end of the business, where resources are transformed into
goods and services. A process is a series of activities that brings about a
result. A program is a group of projects managed in a coordinated way to
obtain benefits not available from managing them individually.
4. (d) i, ii, and iii
Projects and operations are generally considered similar. Both are carried
out by people. They are both planned, implemented, and controlled to
produce results within the given resource constraints.
5. (d) i, ii, and iii
Organizations adopt the project approach when they have to perform tasks
that are new to them. This approach is also adopted when the tasks are not
likely to be repeated in the future, and when the existing systems in the
parent organization are not equipped to handle the new task.
6. (c) A project consists of various technical activities that are independent
and unrelated
Projects consist of various technically interrelated activities. These activities
are considered interrelated as the deliverable (output) of one activity
becomes the input for another activity of the project.
7. (b) Scope
Scope is a brief and accurate description of the end-products or deliverables
to be expected from the project that meet the requirements. It describes all
the activities that need to be performed, resources that will be consumed,
and the end-products from the successful completion of the project,
including quality standards.
8. (d) i, ii, iii, and iv
The various project parameters are scope, quality, cost, time, and resources.
Resources in a project comprise the people resources, the financial
resources, the physical resources, and the information resources. These
resources are required to carry out the project activities.
9. (c) Recruitment of new employees in the organization
Projects usually go off balance when clients ask for changes in their time
frame, scope, and quality. Some of the reasons for projects going off-
balance could be change in market demand that requires the addition of new
features, product needing to be launched ahead of due date due to
competition, loss of key personnel, breakdown of machinery, new
technology expected in the market, etc. Recruitment of new employees in
the organization will not make a project go off balance.
28
Introduction to Project Management
13. (c) Project management involves managing the existing systems and
services in an organization.
29
Project Management – An Overview
Project stakeholders are those who are directly related to the project –
suppliers, clients, employees, and managers; those who can influence the
physical, organizational, technological, socioeconomic, legal, and political
environment; those who have an authoritative relationship with the project –
government agencies at the local, regional, and national levels; and persons,
groups, and associations that have a stake in the project.
17. (b) customers who are external to the company but are not the final
users of the product.
Customers are those who will use or pay for the product or service produced
by the project. These customers may be internal or external to the
organization. Internal customers are those individuals who are internal to the
parent company. Intermediate customers are usually external to the
company but they are not the final users of the product or service. External
customers are the individuals or organizations who pay for the final product
or service and use.
Customers are the project stakeholders who will use or pay for the
deliverable produced by the project. They can be internal or external to the
organization. Internal customers are individuals who are internal to the
parent company. The production department is an internal customer. In the
given instance, the production department will be the internal customer of
the project as it will use the machine. The company wants to sell the product
to outside customers. These can be intermediate customers (distributors or
wholesalers who will not be the final users of the machine) or external
customers (individuals or organizations who will pay for and use the
machine) to the project.
All the groups and individuals who devote time, skills, and effort to the
project are regarded as project team members. Project team members take
care of the technical, managerial, or the administrative aspects of a project.
They work directly with or under a project manager, depending on the way
the project is organized.
30
Introduction to Project Management
31
Project Management – An Overview
32
Unit 2
Project Idea Generation and Screening
Structure
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Objectives
2.3 Generating Project Ideas
2.4 Creativity and Idea Generation
2.5 Scanning the Environment
2.6 Searching for New Project Ideas
2.7 Initial Screening
2.8 Project Rating Index
2.9 Sources of Positive Net Present Value
2.10 Summary
2.11 Glossary
2.12 Self-Assessment Exercises
2.13 Suggested Reading/Reference Material
2.14 Answers to Check Your Progress Questions
2.15 Answers to Exercises
2.1 Introduction
In the previous unit, we have discussed about the fundamental concepts of
project management. We have also discussed about the project management
environment. In this unit, we will discuss how to generate project ideas and
screen them.
When developing a new project, the project manager generates several ideas
from different sources like customers, employees and competitors, and finally
selects those project ideas that can be implemented. The generation of ideas
requires creativity, sensitivity to the changes in the external environment and
assessment of firm’s capabilities for any individual. So, the project manager has
to be aware of several techniques like attribute listing, checklist and
brainstorming for generating new project ideas.
After the ideas have been collected, the project manager has to screen them. The
objective of screening is to drop the poor ideas at the initial stages of new project
development. Project Rating Index, an initial evaluation method, helps
management streamline the process of initial screening. Net Present Value
(NPV) is used to conduct a financial analysis of projects. In the case of financial
projects, the projects with higher NPV are selected.
This unit deals with the generation of project ideas and discuss the various
creativity techniques involved in the generation of ideas. We will discuss the
scanning of the business environment, and the activities that can be carried out to
Project Management – An Overview
generate new project ideas. We shall then move on to discuss the initial
screening of project ideas and about the project rating index. Finally, we would
be discussing the factors that can be used by firms to enhance the net present
value of a project.
2.2 Objectives
By the end of this unit, students should be able to:
34
Project Idea Generation and Screening
customer interviews, the project manager can learn about customer needs. Several
companies maintain an open culture that encourages a free flow of ideas from all
its employees. Companies also discover good ideas by thoroughly examining their
competitor’s products and services. Project manager analyzes the competitor’s
processes so that they can refine them.
4. From the following options, identify the factors that help in generating
ideas.
i. Creativity
ii. Sensitivity to external environmental changes
iii. Assessment of firm’s capabilities by any individual
a. Only i and ii
b. Only i and iii
c. Only ii and iii
d. i, ii, and iii
5. Identify the statement that does not hold true where the Net Present Value
(NPV) of a project is concerned.
i. NPV is the difference between the present value of the future revenues
minus future costs.
ii. In the case of financial projects, the projects with negative NPV are
selected.
iii. Superior technology, product differentiation, etc., help in enhancing the
NPV of a project.
a. Only i
b. Only i and ii
c. Only ii
d. Only ii and iii
Preparation
In this stage, an individual gathers necessary information, defines the problem
precisely, analyzes the data and generates a number of alternatives.
Incubation
An individual comes out with unusual alternatives because of subconscious mental
activity coupled with divergent thinking. In this stage, an individual does not
consciously focus on the problem, but allows the subconscious mind to look for a
solution.
36
Project Idea Generation and Screening
Illumination
In this stage, an individual gets an insight into a problem all of a sudden while he
is thinking several alternatives. The practicability of this idea is then examined.
Verification
In this stage, the feasibility of the alternative ideas is examined. The ideas for
which the solutions are not feasible are rejected.
Creativity can be nurtured at two different levels – the individual level and the
group level. Organizations prefer to nurture creativity at the group level as it
ensures participation and acceptance of all the employees concerned.
37
Project Management – An Overview
7. Identify the correct sequence of steps in the process of creativity from the
given sequences.
a. Illumination – Incubation –Verification – Preparation.
b. Preparation – Incubation – Illumination – Verification.
c. Incubation – Preparation – Illumination – Verification.
d. Verification – Preparation – Illumination – Incubation.
8. ___________ refers to the ability of an individual or a group to develop
something new, and involves the ability to combine or synthesize available
information and experience to see new patterns and possibilities.
a. Culture
b. Innovation
c. Creativity
d. Screening
9. In which technique do all individual members prepare their ideas
independently and present them before other members, who rate the ideas?
a. Brainstorming
b. Delphi technique
c. Nominal group technique
d. Black box
10. In which of the following stages in the creativity process does the individual
define the problem precisely, analyze the data, and generate a number of
alternatives?
a. Incubation
b. Preparation
c. Illumination
d. Verification
11. Identify the statement/s that explains/explain the characteristics of
brainstorming correctly.
a. Brainstorming is a structured technique administered by a coordinator.
b. Brainstorming is used for eliciting the ideas and opinions of a number
of experts for a given issue.
c. Brainstorming encourages group members to generate as many ideas as
possible, helps in improving ideas of other members, and allows
synthesizing of two or more ideas.
d. All of the above
12. Of the following options, which are true with regard to the activity carried
out in the verification stage in the creativity process?
i. The individual allows his/her subconscious mind to look for a solution.
ii. The feasibility of alternative ideas is examined.
iii. The ideas for which the solutions are not feasible are rejected.
39
Project Management – An Overview
a. Only i and ii
b. Only i and iii
c. Only ii and iii
d. i, ii, and iii
13. ___________ is a structured technique administered by a coordinator in
which all the individual members prepare their ideas independently.
a. Black box
b. Brainstorming
c. Nominal group technique
d. Delphi technique
14. Identify the stage in the creativity process in which the practicability of the
idea generated is examined.
a. Preparation
b. Incubation
c. Illumination
d. Verification
15. In the incubation stage of the creativity process,
a. the individual gets an insight into a problem all of a sudden while
he/she is thinking about several alternatives.
b. the individual comes out with unusual alternatives because of
subconscious mental activity coupled with divergent thinking.
c. the individual gathers the necessary information, defines the problem
precisely, analyzes the data, and generates a number of alternatives.
d. the practicability of the idea generated is examined.
16. Of the following techniques, which is not used by organizations for
developing group creativity?
a. Brainstorming
b. Delphi technique
c. Black box
d. Nominal group technique
17. Of the following statements, identify those that hold true with regard to
creativity.
i. Creativity is the ability of an individual or a group to develop
something new.
ii. Creativity involves the ability to combine or synthesize available
information and experience to see new patterns and possibilities.
iii. Creativity is best nurtured in a liberal climate where everybody is
encouraged to develop new ideas and new ways of doing things.
iv. Creativity can be nurtured only at the individual level.
a. Only i, ii, and iii
b. Only i, iii, and iv
c. Only ii, iii, and iv
d. i, ii, iii, and iv
40
Project Idea Generation and Screening
18. Which of the following statements is false regarding the attribute listing
technique that organizations use to improve creativity in individuals?
a. All the required and available inputs as well as the desired outputs are
listed.
b. The attributes that can be attached to the end product and/or service are
listed and based on them the final product is designed.
c. Questions are developed and individuals have to answer these questions
to find a solution to the problem.
d. Both (a) and (c)
19. ______________ consists of a set of questions that are relevant to a given
situation, answering which helps the individual find a solution to the
problem.
a. Attribute listing
b. Black box
c. Delphi technique
d. Checklist
20. Which of the following techniques involves finding out the ideas and
opinions of experts?
a. Black box
b. Brainstorming
c. Nominal group technique
d. Delphi technique
21. Identify the technique in which all the required and available inputs as well
as the desired outputs are listed. It is also checked whether these outputs can
be produced using the available inputs.
a. Checklist
b. Black box
c. Attribute listing
d. Delphi technique
42
Project Idea Generation and Screening
2.5.5 Competition
The project manager should carefully analyze the competition in the market to
design a successful project. He should be aware of the number of firms in the
industry and the degree of homogeneity and differentiation among their
products. The effect of complementary and substitute products on the end
product or service should also be analyzed. Information on and understanding of
all the above issues enables the project manager to prepare necessary plans to
sustain themselves in the face of cut-throat competition.
The project manager should carefully analyze the input requirements for carrying
out the project. He should be aware of the availability and cost of raw materials
and other requirements like power and water. The project manager should ensure
that the firm has good contractual agreements with all its suppliers so that all the
necessary goods are delivered on time.
A wide variety of sources should be tapped to get good project ideas. Project
managers perform numerous activities to generate more and more project ideas.
These activities are discussed below.
An analysis of inputs and outputs of various industries can provide new project
ideas. A project opportunity exists when materials that are expensive or difficult
to procure can be obtained at a low cost from a manufacture who enjoys
economies of scale. An opportunity also exists when the waste products of
certain firms can be used to develop a new product. For example, flyash, a by-
product of coal- fired electric generating plant, is now used to improve the
performance and quality of concrete.
43
Project Management – An Overview
45
Project Management – An Overview
ii. The project managers attempt to identify the gaps relative to the listed
psychological needs
iii. The existing brands in the market are placed on a continuum in respect
of the factors identified by the customers
a. iii-ii-i
b. i-iii-ii
c. ii-i-iii
d. i-ii-iii
26. A study of which of the following sectors involves the study of population
growth, age shifts in population, educational profile of the people, gender
composition and religious interests?
a. Competition sector
b. Economic sector
c. Socio-demographic sector
d. Governmental sector
27. Which of the following techniques enables the project manager to identify
the gaps between the consumers’ psychological needs and the needs met by
the existing products?
a. Black box
b. Brainstorming
c. Spectrum analysis
d. Project rating index
46
Project Idea Generation and Screening
The project manager must consider the following aspects to eliminate ideas that
are not promising:
47
Project Management – An Overview
48
Project Idea Generation and Screening
projects are then measured against these factors and assigned a score. This
method is useful for the firms when a large number of project ideas have to be
evaluated.
The steps involved in developing a project-rating index are described below.
1. Identify the relevant factors useful for rating a project.
2. Assign factor weights to each factor, based on the relative importance of
each factor.
3. Use an appropriate rating scale (5-point or 7-point) and rate the project on
the listed factors.
4. Multiply the factor rating with the factor weight to calculate the factor score
for each factor.
5. Add all the factor scores to determine the ‘rating index’ of the project
6. Reject the project if the rating index of the project is less than the desired
value.
Activity: The management of Zenix Turbo Machines Limited wanted to
screen the project ideas generated by its employees. The CEO of the company
wanted to use the project index method for screening the project ideas. The
job of screening was entrusted to one of the senior managers of the company,
Kamal Nath. The management of the company identified the following
factors in rating a project – input availability, complementary relationship
with other products of the firm, adequacy of market demand, technical know-
how, and consistency with government priorities. The factor weights assigned
to these factors were 0.2, 0.15, 0.3, 0.1, 0.15, and 0.1 respectively. The
management decided to reject a project idea, if its project rating index was
less than 3, and consider an idea, if its project rating index is more than 3.
Nath’s factor ratings for a project idea were 3, 2, 1, 2, 4 and 3 respectively.
Do you think, the management of the firm will consider this project for final
selection?
Answer:
50
Project Idea Generation and Screening
51
Project Management – An Overview
36. Arrange the following options based on the sequence in which the project
manager develops a project rating index.
i. Multiply the factor rating with the factor weight to calculate the factor
score for each factor.
ii. Assign factor weights to each factor, based on the relative importance
of each factor.
iii. Identify the relevant factors useful for rating a project.
iv. Add all the factor scores to determine the ‘rating index’ of the project.
v. Use an appropriate rating scale and rate the project on the listed factors.
vi. Reject the project if the rating index of the project is less than the
desired value.
a. iii-ii-v-i-iv-vi
b. iii-v-ii-iv-vi-i
c. iii-iv-vi-v-i-ii
d. iii-i-ii-v-iv-vi
37. ___________ is an evaluation method that helps the management to
streamline the process of initial screening.
a. Spectrum analysis
b. Project rating index
c. Delphi technique
d. Attribute listing
38. Identify the factors that firms can use to enhance the Net Present Value
(NPV) of a project.
i. Favorable government policy
ii. Economies of scale
iii. Product differentiation
iv. Superiority of technology
a. Only i, ii, and iii
b. Only i, iii, and iv
c. Only ii, iii, and iv
d. i, ii, iii, and iv
Exercises
(Questions A – D)
Surjeet Technologies is planning to set up a plant in one of three locations –
Bangalore, Chennai, or Hyderabad. Following are the details of the factors
considered by the company for selecting the plant location, the weights attached
to each of them, and the rating for various factors on a scale of 1 to 5.
52
Project Idea Generation and Screening
2.10 Summary
When developing a new project, the project manager generates several ideas
from different sources like customers, employees and competitors, and finally
selects those project ideas that can be implemented.
The generation of ideas requires creativity, sensitivity to the changes in external
environment, and assessment of firm’s capabilities for any individual.
Creativity refers to the ability of an individual or a group to develop something
new. It involves the ability to combine or synthesize the available information
and experience to see new patterns and possibilities.
The process of creativity involves four stages – preparation, incubation,
illumination and verification.
Methods like attribute listing, checklist and black box help in improving the
creativity of an individual.
Organizations encourage group creativity to elicit more and better ideas. Some
of the popular group creativity techniques used by organizations are
brainstorming, Delphi technique, and nominal group technique.
Most firms conduct a SWOT analysis to identify their strengths and weaknesses,
and the opportunities and threats in the business environment.
53
Project Management – An Overview
For the purpose of scanning the environment, the whole business environment
may be divided into six broad sectors: economic sector, governmental sector,
technological sector, socio-demographic sector, competition sector and supplier
sector.
Before accepting a project, a firm must conduct a corporate appraisal. A realistic
appraisal of corporate strengths and weaknesses provides for exploiting the
opportunities in the environment.
Project managers carry out various activities to generate more and more project
ideas. These include – study the existing industries, observe the inputs and
outputs of various industries, analysis of imports and exports, study of economic
and social trends, observe new technologies, identifying psychological needs
and study the government guidelines and recommendations for financial
institutions.
After a pool of ideas has been generated, the project manager must screen them.
In this phase, the ideas that have limited commercial potential or do not match
the firm’s objective are rejected. Initial screening is a process of rejection rather
than a process of selection.
The project rating index is an evaluation method that helps management to
streamline the process of initial screening. In this method, the management
identifies factors for rating projects and assigns a weight to each factor. The
projects are then measured against these factors and assigned a score.
Project managers select project ideas that give higher returns than the
investment made. They consider the net present value while screening the
project ideas. The net present value is defined as the present value of the future
revenues minus future costs.
Some of the factors that firms can use to enhance the net present value of a
project are – government policy, economies of scale, product differentiation and
superiority of technology.
2.11 Glossary
Creativity: The ability of an individual or a group to develop something new. It
involves the ability to combine or synthesize the available information and
experience to see new patterns and possibilities.
Net Present Value: The present value of the future revenues minus future costs.
Project Rating Index: An evaluation method that helps management to
streamline the process of initial screening.
54
Project Idea Generation and Screening
55
Project Management – An Overview
3. (b) drop the unviable ideas at the initial stages of new project
development.
After the ideas have been collected, the project manager has to screen them.
The objective of screening is to drop the unviable ideas at the initial stages
of new project development. It is a process of rejection rather than one of
selection. Screening helps in rejecting ideas that cannot be considered for
implementation.
4. (d) i, ii, and iii
The project manager uses different sources like customers, employees, and
competitors to generate ideas and finally selects those project ideas that can be
implemented. The generation of ideas requires creativity, sensitivity to changes
in the external environment, and assessment of the firm’s capabilities by any
individual.
5. (c) Only ii
Net Present Value is used to screen project ideas. In the case of financial
projects, the projects with higher positive NPV are selected.
6. (b) Brainstorming
Attribute listing, checklist, and black box are techniques that organizations
use for developing creativity in an individual. Brainstorming is a technique
used to improve creativity in groups.
7. (b) Preparation – Incubation – Illumination – Verification.
The process of creativity involves four stages – preparation, incubation,
illumination, and verification. In the preparation stage, an individual gathers
the necessary information, defines the problem precisely, analyzes the data,
and generates a number of alternatives. In the incubation stage, he/she
comes out with unusual alternatives because of subconscious mental activity
coupled with divergent thinking. In the illumination stage, the individual
gets an insight into a problem all of a sudden while he/she is thinking of
several alternatives. In the verification stage, the feasibility of the alternative
ideas is examined.
8. (c) Creativity
Creativity refers to the ability of an individual or a group to develop
something new. It involves the ability to combine or synthesize available
information and experience to see new patterns and possibilities.
9. (c) Nominal group technique
The nominal group technique is a structured technique administered by a
coordinator. All the individual members prepare their ideas independently.
They are then requested to present the ideas before the other members, who
rate the ideas. The coordinator notes down all the ideas generated (positive
and negative arguments of each idea) for future use.
56
Project Idea Generation and Screening
57
Project Management – An Overview
position; and the trade deficit/surplus of the country. The project manager
should also analyze the economic environment to assess the viability of new
project ideas.
24. (b) before a project is accepted.
Before accepting a project, a firm must conduct a corporate appraisal. A
realistic appraisal of corporate strengths and weaknesses helps in exploiting
the opportunities in the environment.
25. (b) i-iii-ii
Spectrum analysis enables the project manager to identify the gaps between
the consumers’ psychological needs and the needs that existing products
meet. In spectrum analysis, the important factors influencing customers’
brand preferences are identified and the existing brands in the market are
then placed on a continuum in respect of the factors identified by the
customers. The project managers then attempt to identify the gaps relative to
the listed psychological needs.
26. (c) Socio-demographic sector
A study of the socio-demographic sector involves the study of population
growth, age shifts in population, educational profile of the people, gender
composition, and religious interests. The project manager should understand
all the socio-demographic aspects while setting the objectives of the project
and in preparing the relevant procedures.
27. (c) Spectrum analysis
Spectrum analysis enables the project manager to identify the gaps between
the consumers’ psychological needs and the needs that existing products
meet. In spectrum analysis, the important factors influencing customers’
brand preferences are identified and then the existing brands in the market
are placed on a continuum in respect of the factors identified by the
customers. The project managers then attempt to identify the gaps relative to
the listed psychological needs.
28. (d) i, ii, iii, and iv
The project manager must consider the following aspects to eliminate ideas
that are not promising – acceptable risk level, reasonability of costs,
compatibility with promoter, consistency with government priorities,
availability of inputs, and adequate market demand. The project idea should
be compatible with the interests and abilities of the person who is promoting
the project. The promoter provides the basic resources to the project.
Therefore, the project manager should ensure that the project is acceptable
to him/her. The project ideas should be carefully screened keeping in view
the government priorities. Sometimes, a project may be scrapped before
completion due to its harmful effects on society. The project manager
should therefore be familiar with all the rules and regulations framed by the
government.
59
Project Management – An Overview
60
Project Idea Generation and Screening
61
Project Management – An Overview
B. 3.75
Chennai:
C. 3.75
Bangalore:
62
Project Idea Generation and Screening
63
Unit 3
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
Structure
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Objectives
3.3 Market and demand analysis
3.4 Technical Analysis
3.5 Summary
3.6 Glossary
3.7 Self-Assessment Test
3.8 Suggested Readings/Reference Material
3.9 Answers to Check Your Progress Questions
3.10 Answers to Exercises
3.1 Introduction
In the previous unit, we have discussed project idea generation and screening. In
this unit, we will discuss market and technical analysis of projects. Once the
project ideas are generated and screened, they are evaluated to test their
marketability, technical feasibility, and cost considerations. Market and demand
analysis provides a detailed analysis of all market conditions and technical
analysis provides an assessment of all technical aspects of the project idea. The
market analysis estimates the size of the potential market, patterns of
consumption, level of competition, market composition and demand analysis
determines the aggregated demand for a product or service for a particular
period, variations in supply, hidden demands of the customers, etc. Technical
analysis of a project idea includes the study of all the relevant design and
engineering aspects, reliability and sustainability of the product. An in depth
study of market and demand analysis followed by technical analysis reveals the
probability of success of a project idea.
This unit will deal with market and technical analysis of projects. We shall first
discuss market analysis of projects that involves aspects like situational analysis
and objectives specification, collection of data, market survey, market
description, demand forecasting, uncertainties in demand forecasting and market
planning. We shall then move on to discuss technical analysis of projects that
involves aspects like technology selection, input requirements and utilities,
product mix, plant capacity and functional layout, location of the project,
machinery and equipment, and consideration of alternatives.
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
3.2 Objectives
By the end of this unit, students should be able to:
A project manager should carefully study the market potential for a given project
idea. Conducting market surveys, collecting primary and secondary data,
studying the characteristics of the market are some of the activities to test the
market environment and see if the idea is feasible. Demand analysis of a product
includes the study of consumption patterns, income and price elasticity of
demand, nature of competition, availability and prices of substitutes and
complementary products. The activities of a project manager in conducting a
market and demand analysis include situational analysis and objectives
specification, collection of secondary data, market survey, market description,
demand forecasting, and market planning.
A project manager need not go in for a formal study when he is satisfied with the
information generated through informal talks and feels that it is adequate to scale
the present and future demand for a product. But if there is a need for a formal
study, the project manager has to define the objectives of the study. Once the
objectives are clearly stated, the questions in the survey should be framed in
such a way so as to elicit the required response (answer relating to market
demand, expected revenue etc).
What are the prices and features of inverters being offered by the competitors?
How sensitive are customers to the price of an inverter?
How many types of distribution channels are available for inverters in the
market?
What are the constraints faced by intermediaries to capture the market?
How can existing customers be convinced to use the newly developed product?
What price and warranty will ensure the product’s acceptance in the market?
Primary data is the data that is collected for a specific purpose and for the first
time. Secondary data is the data that is already available but might have been
collected for some other purpose or by some other institutions. Secondary data is
considered to be more useful in market analysis as it is easy to obtain and is also
economical.
Primary data can be obtained from sources both internal and external to the
organization. Internal primary data is obtained from past and current sales of the
firm, observations of employees of the firm etc.
External primary data is obtained from the opinion of the dealers, feedback of
the sales personnel and sales trends. Survey methods or experimental methods
are ideal for gathering primary data.
This enables the project manager to understand market trends and changing
preferences of customers. The primary data provides problem specific and
accurate information, but collection of primary data requires more time and it
also incurs more costs.
A project manager should carefully select the sources of secondary data as the
data was collected by other organizations for their own needs. He should also
ensure that the sources are authentic and the information is accurate, reliable,
relevant and economical to obtain. Since the data is not collected for a specific
problem, the project manager has to correlate the available information with the
existing problem.
67
Project Management – An Overview
68
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
69
Project Management – An Overview
ability of the buyers. But effective demand also considers willingness of the
buyers. The project manager analyzes the present and past effective demand for
the product or service.
Breakdown of demand
The project manager can better determine the total demand of the product by
dividing it into various segments as per nature of the product, type of customers,
or by geographical location. For example, the total demand for steel is sum of
the demand of all products that are made of steel. In case of power projects, the
total demand can be divided into domestic consumers demand and industrial
consumers demand. The demand as per geographical location would be demand
in rural and urban areas.
Price
The project manager collects the price statistics of the proposed project idea to
understand the market fluctuations and the changes of price of the product. This
allows him to arrive at the best price for his product. The project manager can
also explore the possibilities of keeping the price high by maintaining high
quality or he can look for ways to reduce project costs and keep the prices low.
Consumers Interest
The project idea is evaluated on the basis of the consumers' demographical,
sociological, cultural interests and values. A project idea that goes against these
interests and values should not be taken up. The project manager has to observe
different purchasing motives of the different consumer groups for a specific project
idea.
Methods of Distribution
The 'reach' of a product or service plays an important role in determining the
success of the product. As different products require different 'reach', project
ideas should be evaluated by its reach. Depending on the nature of the product
(consumer/industrial product), the project manager selects the method of
distribution and plans the promotional practices to generate more sales.
Sales Promotion
The project manager adopts different techniques of sales promotion after
considering the characteristics of the market, nature of product and the
distribution channel. Discounts, free gifts, coupons are some of the sales
promotion techniques used to increase sales of the product.
Supply and Competition
To survive competition, a project manager analyzes the 'supply and demand
situation' for all project ideas. Any product or service that has demand exceeding
supply is worth taking up. A project manager also considers the supply of
complementary and substitute products while studying the market competition.
71
Project Management – An Overview
Government Policy
The government provides incentives to certain industries for the benefit of the
country through its five-year plans, export incentives, preferential purchases and
subsidies. Therefore, the project manager has to understand government interests
to evaluate the project idea better. If the government provides certain incentives
to a particular industry, then the prices of the product are lowered. This change
in the price in turn will affect the demand for the product.
73
Project Management – An Overview
The consumption level technique estimates the demand for a particular product
or service on the basis of income and price elasticities of demand.
Q 2 Q1 I I1
e 2
i I 2 I1 Q 2 Q1
Then the projected demand for rice would be = (present per capita demand) (1+
per capita income level income elasticity of demand)
= (70 kg) {1+ (0.12 1.02)} = 78.57kg per capita per annum.
The price elasticity of demand represents the effect of the change in the demand
as a proportion to change in the price. This is also calculated like income
elasticity of demand. Both these techniques are useful in estimating the
sensitivity of demand to changes in income and price levels.
74
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
Econometric Technique
This technique explains the behavior of the economic variables as per the
equations developed. The equation may be a single equation or multiple
equations. In a single equation model, the dependent variable is explained by
several other independent variables.
For example, the demand for rice is explained by the variation in population and
income as
Dt = a0 + a1 Pt +a2 It
where Dt = demand for rice in year 't'
Pt = population in year 't'
It = income in year 't'
a0, a1 and a2 are the constants.
Another model, called 'simultaneous equation model' explains the economic
relationships between different variables in terms of two or more equations.
For example, the demand for paper is explained by the number of newspapers
printed and the number of computers. Again, the variable, number of newspapers
is explained by increase in population and the number of computers is explained
by income levels.
Pt = a0 + a1 Nt + a2 Ct
Nt = a3 + a4 Pt
Ct = a5 + a6 It
75
Project Management – An Overview
76
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
77
Project Management – An Overview
Answer:
Q2 Q1 I 2 + I1
b. ei = ×
I2 I1 Q 2 + Q1
78
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
Q2 Q1 I2 I1
c. ei = ×
Q1 Q 2 I1 I 2
Q2 Q1 I 2 I1
d. ei = ×
Q1 Q 2 I 2 + I1
19. Identify the technique which assumes that a change in the value of a
particular variable will lead to a change in the value of another variable.
a. Chain ratio technique
b. Econometric technique
c. Leading indicator technique
d. End use technique
20. Which demand forecasting technique explains the behavior of the economic
variables as per the equations developed?
a. End use technique
b. Econometric technique
c. Leading indicator technique
d. Chain ratio technique
21. Which of the following formulae will help in finding out the demand for
wheat in a particular year with variations in population (P) and income (I)?
a. a0Pt + a1It + a0a1
b. a0 + a1Pt + a2It
c. a1 + a2Pt + a3It
d. a1Pt + a2It + PtIt
22. Statistical techniques and causal methods are prone to errors because of the
many uncertainties involved in the process of forecasting demand. Which of
the following are the major sources of uncertainty?
i. Techniques of forecasting
ii. Past market data
iii. Present market data
iv. Environmental change
a. Only i, ii, and iii
b. Only i, iii, and iv
c. Only ii, iii, and iv
d. i, ii, iii, and iv
Exercises
A. The per capita annual demand for wheat in India is 100 kg. The elasticity of
demand for wheat is 1.05. Assume that the projected per capita annual
income is expected to increase by 15% in the next year. Calculate the
projected demand for wheat.
79
Project Management – An Overview
It is possible that a project manager does not have the required technical
expertise. In such a case, the technical matters can be better handled by a
specialist. But it can be argued that the project managers can make good
technical decisions without deep technical knowledge.
According to W. Skinner, a management expert on technical aspects, a project
manager should ask himself the following questions to select an appropriate
technology -- What will the technology do? What will the technology not do?
What is required to adopt new technology? How much does the technology cost?
and How certain are the above apprehensions?
Apart from the above questions, the project manager also has to consider the
scope for future expansion, and experiences of the previous users. The project
manager can evaluate the project better if he has the details. Selecting an
appropriate technology also includes evaluating alternative technologies
available. Selecting an appropriate technology is also influenced by several other
factors like the capacity of the firm, inputs and their availability, investment
capability, production costs, overheads and technological upgradations.
80
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
Plant capacity is the ability of the firm to produce certain volumes or a certain
number of units in a given time period. It represents the production capacity of
the firm under normal working conditions. This is determined on the basis of
installed capacity, machinery, and availability of infrastructure and labor.
Input constraints, investments, market conditions, government policies,
technological upgradations, and financial resources play a critical role in
determining the capacity of a plant. Availability of skilled labor is also a crucial
81
Project Management – An Overview
factor in evaluating the capacity of a project. Layouts are essential for setting up
an effective plant. The three types of layouts are product layout, process layout,
and fixed layout.
Product Layout
In this layout, machinery and equipment are arranged according to the products.
This layout is also referred to as an assembly line or production line, if the
equipment is dedicated to continuous production of a narrow product line.
Suppose a firm produces three products: A, B and C. According to this layout,
each product is manufactured separately and there will be no interferences in the
production lines of these three products.
Process Layout
In this layout, all similar equipment or functions are grouped together like all
lathes in one area, and all drilling machines in another area. Suppose a firm uses
three varieties of machines, say P,Q and R to produce a product X. All P type
machines are grouped at one place, all Q type machines are grouped at another
place, and all R type machines in another place.
Fixed Layout
A fixed layout is used when the product is bulky, large, heavy, and remains
stationary. For example, all manufacturing and construction firms select a fixed
position for construction and all materials, machines, sub contractors and
workers are taken to the the fixed place. Best examples of such layouts are ship
building, aircraft assembling, satellite assembling etc. The project manger can
choose any of these layouts based on the requirements of the project. Usually, no
single type of layout can exactly fulfill the purpose and the project manager may
use a combination of different types of layouts.
82
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
83
Project Management – An Overview
84
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
85
Project Management – An Overview
which the firm may not have. All these constraints force the project manager to
think of alternatives and come up with a workable project idea. Reconsideration
of nature of the project also generates new ideas and makes the idea feasible.
Market characteristics also force the project manager to produce a high quality
product at a premium price or a low quality item at a cheaper price. To meet the
required market demand, the project manager has two options – either to
construct a single plant to cover the entire market or to construct multiple plants
in different locations. As none of the choices may be perfect, the ultimate
decision regarding the project will depend on the trade-off between the
economies of scale in manufacturing and the economies of distribution. The next
chapter talks about how a project manager selects a project from the several
alternatives, on the basis of the financial considerations.
86
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
3.5 Summary
Market and demand analysis and technical analysis are carried out by the project
manager in the process of evaluating a project idea.
There are six steps in the market and demand analysis: situational analysis and
objectives specification, collection of data, market survey, market description,
demand forecasting and market planning.
The market and demand analysis helps the project manager to understand how
the firm's abilities can be synchronized with market requirements.
Market analysis studies market needs and consumer preferences for a given
project idea and demand analysis aims at calculating the aggregated demand for
a particular product or service.
Technical analysis of a project idea includes designing the various processes,
installing equipment, specifying material and prototype testing.
The project manager has to be careful in finalizing the technical aspects of the
project as the decision is irreversible and the investments involved may be high.
The project manager has to select the technology required in consultation with
technical experts and consultants.
3.6 Glossary
Chain ratio technique: A simple technique that applies a series of factors to
forecast the demand for a particular product or service.
Consumption level technique: This technique estimates the demand for a
particular product or service on the basis of income and price elasticities of
demand.
Demand analysis: It determines the aggregated demand for a product or service
for a particular period, variations in supply, hidden demands of the customers,
etc.
Econometric technique: This technique explains the behavior of the economic
variables as per the equations developed. The equation may be a single equation
or multiple equations.
End use technique: This technique is useful in estimating demand for
intermediate products such as investment goods and industrial tools.
Fixed layout: It is used when the product is bulky, large, heavy, and remains
stationary.
Income elasticity of demand: It represents the effect of the change in the
demand as a proportion to change in the income.
Leading indicator technique: This technique is used when the change in the
value of a particular variable leads to a change in the value of another variable.
Market analysis: It estimates the size of the potential market, patterns of
consumption, level of competition, and market composition.
87
Project Management – An Overview
Plant capacity: The ability of the firm to produce certain volumes or a certain
number of units in a given time period. It represents the production capacity of
the firm under normal working conditions.
Price elasticity of demand: It represents the effect of the change in the demand
as a proportion to change in the price.
Primary data: Data that is collected for a specific purpose and for the first time.
Process layout: In this layout, all similar equipment or functions are grouped
together.
Product layout: In this layout, machinery and equipment are arranged
according to the products. This layout is also referred to as an assembly line or
production line, if the equipment is dedicated to continuous production of a
narrow product line.
Product testing: An objective appraisal of the product performance done on a
limited scale without using the firm's brand name.
Questionnaire: A formalized set of questions for generating information. The
questions can be structured or unstructured or a combination of both, depending
on the requirement.
Secondary data: Data that is already available but might have been collected
for some other purpose or by some other institutions.
Situational analysis: The process by which a project manager studies customer
preferences and their purchasing capacity and strategies of the competing firms
and intermediaries.
Structured questions: Questions followed by a fixed number of choices from
which the respondent should choose an answer.
Technical analysis: It includes the study of all the relevant design and
engineering aspects, reliability and sustainability of the product.
Unstructured questions: Questions that require the respondent to give
descriptive answers.
88
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
90
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
91
Project Management – An Overview
Q2 Q1 I 2 + I1
18. (b) ei = × Income elasticity represents the effect of
I2 I1 Q 2 + Q1
where,
92
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
93
Project Management – An Overview
A fixed layout is used when the product is bulky, large, heavy, and remains
stationary. For example, all manufacturing and construction firms select a
fixed position for construction and all materials, machines, sub-contractors,
and workers are taken to that place. The best examples of such layouts are
ship building, aircraft assembling, and satellite assembling.
94
Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
= (100 kg) {1+ (0.15 1.05)} = 115.75 kg per capita per annum.
B. 2.75
Projected demand for Product P would be = (present per capita demand)
(1+ per capita income level income elasticity of demand)
15.5
= 1+ (0.07 income elasticity of demand)
13
1.1923 1
Income elasticity of demand = = 2.75.
0.07
95
Unit 4
Financial Analysis of Projects
Structure
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Objectives
4.3 Project Cost
4.4 Means of Financing the Project
4.5 Working Capital Requirements and Financing
4.6 Time Value of Money
4.7 Costs of Different Sources of Finance
4.8 Evaluation of Project Investments
4.9 Risk Analysis of Project Investments
4.10 Social Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA)
4.11 Summary
4.12 Glossary
4.13 Self-Assessment Test
4.14 Suggested Readings/Reference Material
4.15 Answers to Check Your Progress Questions
4.16 Answers to Exercises
4.1 Introduction
In the previous unit, we have discussed how to conduct the market analysis and
technical analysis of projects. In this unit, we will discuss how to conduct the
financial analysis of projects. Once the commercial and technical aspects of a
project idea have been evaluated and approved, the project manager must
examine the financial feasibility of the project. Since the primary objective of
any firm is to maximize profits, the financial aspects of a project idea must be
studied carefully. Even if the project is marketable and technically feasible, it
cannot be implemented if it is not financially viable. To assess the financial
feasibility of a project idea, the project manager must examine the capital costs,
operating costs and revenues of the proposed project.
To conduct a financial analysis, the project manager must collect information
about all the costs pertaining to the project, different ways of financing the
project, working capital requirements, profitability projections and projected
cash flows of the project. On the basis of this data, the project manager can
appraise all the functions of the project and decide whether a particular project
idea is worth implementing or not. This chapter discusses the various appraisal
techniques used by the project managers to evaluate the financial viability of a
project.
Financial Analysis of Projects
This unit will introduce you to the means of financing a project. We will discuss
the working capital requirements and financing. We shall then discuss the
concepts of time value of money, cost of capital, project appraisal criteria, and
risk analysis in capital investment decisions. Finally, we would also be
discussing social cost benefit analysis.
4.2 Objectives
This unit will help you understand:
define project cost.
identify the means of financing a project.
analyze working capital requirements and financing.
discuss the time value of money.
determine the costs of different sources of finance.
evaluate project investments.
perform risk analysis for project investments.
explain social cost benefit analysis.
4.3 Project Cost
The project cost is the sum of all the costs of activities associated with the
project. It includes all costs under the following heads: building and civil works,
land and site development, plant and machinery, expenses on foreign
technicians, miscellaneous fixed assets, margin money for working capital,
provision for contingencies, pre-operative expenses and initial cash losses.
4.4 Means of Financing the Project
The project manager can finance the project in a number of ways: share capital,
term loans, debenture capital, deferred credit, and other miscellaneous sources.
Any one or a combination of two or more of these methods can be chosen to
finance the project.
4.4.1 Share Capital
Share capital is of two types: equity capital and preference capital. Equity capital
is the capital contributed by the owners of the firm. Equity holders enjoy the
profits and bear the risks of the firm. Preference capital refers to the contribution
made by preference shareholders by investing in a firm’s preference shares.
4.4.2 Term Loans
Term loans are secured borrowings provided by financial institutions and
commercial banks. These loans help firms take up expansion, modernization,
and renovation projects. Term loans are available in both rupees and foreign
currencies. Companies take foreign currency term loans to meet their foreign
currency expenditures e.g. import of machinery, or consultation fees of foreign
technicians.
97
Project Management – An Overview
The aggregate permissible bank finance, as per the norms of lending, prescribed
by the Tandon Committee.
The amount of margin money a firm can provide against each current asset.
98
Financial Analysis of Projects
c. Deferred credit
d. Debentures
5. Which of the following statements is not true regarding debentures?
a. Debentures are issued by firms to raise debt capital, normally for a
period of 5 to 10 years.
b. Debentures are secured against the liabilities of the issuing firm.
c. A fixed interest is paid for non-convertible debentures.
d. None of the above
6. Machinery and equipment suppliers often provide credit facilities to firms.
This credit is repaid over a period of time, depending on the value of the
machinery and the credit standing of the buyer. What is this form of
financing known as?
a. Equity capital
b. Preference capital
c. Deferred credit
d. Term loans
7. Identify the factors that the project manager needs to consider to estimate
the working capital requirements of a project.
i. Raw materials and components
ii. Work-in-process
iii. Stocks of finished goods
iv. Operating expenses
a. Only i, ii, and iii
b. Only i, iii, and iv
c. Only ii, iii, and iv
d. i, ii, iii, and iv
8. Match the following current assets with the range in which the margin
requirements fall for each of them.
i. Debtors
ii. Work-in-process
iii. Finished goods
p. 20-40%
q. 10-25%
r. 30-50%
a. i/q, ii/p, iii/r
b. i/p, ii/r, iii/r
c. i/q, ii/r, iii/p
d. i/r, ii/p, iii/r
100
Financial Analysis of Projects
The project manager considers the time value of money when evaluating the
financial aspects of a project idea. To understand time value of money, consider
the investment of one rupee. One rupee invested today would generate (1+r) a
year hence, where r is the rate of return per annum. The following calculations
are used to determine time value – future value of single cash flow, future value
of annuity, present value of single cash flow, and present value of annuity.
The future value of a single cash flow is given by the following formula:
n
FV PV(1 r)
n = Number of years
Then the future value of the investment at the end of three years is
The following formula is useful for calculating the future value of money when
compounding is done several times a year.
FV PV 1 r/m mn
Where, m = Number of times interest is paid
n = Time period
3 2
FV Rs.1001 (0.06 2)
= 119.40 crore
101
Project Management – An Overview
A[(1 r) n 1]
FVA n
r
Where, A = Constant periodic flow
r = Interest rate per period
n = Duration of the annuity
Suppose a project incurs an amount of Rs. 200 crore every year. Assume the
compound interest is 6.5 percent per annum. Then the future investment value
of the project after five years is:
5
200 1 0.065 1
FVA 5 = Rs. 1138.72 crore.
0.065
1 r n 1
b. FV = A
r
m n
r
c. FV = PV 1
m
1 r n 1
d. FV = A (1 + r)
r
10. The future value of a regular annuity for a period of ‘n’ years at a rate of
interest ‘r’ is given by the formula
1 r n 1
a. FVAn = A
r
102
Financial Analysis of Projects
m n
r
b. FV = PV 1
m
c. FV = PV(1 + r)n
1 r n 1
d. FVAn = A n
r 1 r
Exercises
A. Sridhar has invested Rs. 2,000 in a bank that pays 12% interest compounded
annually. How much will Sridhar get after 10 years?
B. In Consumers Bank, term deposits can be made for periods ranging from six
months to 10 years. The rate of interest paid is 14% per annum for a three-
year deposit and the interest is compounded every quarter. To what amount
will Rs. 10,000 invested in term deposits for three years will grow to?
FV
PV n
(1 r)
FVn
PV mn
(1 r n )
A1 A2 A3 An
PVn ....... n
(1 r) (1 r) 2 3 (1 r)
(1 r)
103
Project Management – An Overview
Where,
PVn= Present value of a cash flow stream
At = Cash flow occurring at the end of year t
r = Annual discount rate
Assume a project is expected to receive Rs. 100 crore, Rs. 200 crore and Rs.
300 crore at the end of the next one, two and three years respectively, at a
discount rate of 8 percent.
Then, the present value of the cash stream to be received for the next three
years is:
n
A 1 r 1
PVA n n
r 1 r
Where,
PVAn= Present value of an annuity that has a duration of n periods
A= Constant periodic flow
r = Discount rate
Assume the project is expected to receive Rs.200 crore for 3 years, each
payment occurring at the end of the year. Then the present value of this cash
stream, if the annual discount rate is 8 percent is
3
200 1 0.08 1
PVA 3
3
0.081 0.08
104
Financial Analysis of Projects
Exercises
C. Srinidhi Bank has introduced a deposit scheme for all individuals and
organizations. A deposit amount is remitted and the principal is received
with an interest of 14% per annum in 12 installments. Find out the amount
of initial deposit in order to receive a monthly installment of Rs. 100 for 12
months.
D. The annuity deposit scheme of Swaraj Bank provides for a fixed monthly
income for suitable periods based on the choice of the depositor. After the
first month of the deposit, the depositor receives monthly installments
depending on the number of months he/she has chosen as the annuity period.
The rate of interest is 9% per annum. If an initial deposit of Rs. 5,000 is
made for an annuity period of 60 months, calculate the value of the monthly
annuity.
75 25
12% 8% = 11%.
100 100
n I1 T R
P n
t
t 1
1 Kd 1 Kd
105
Project Management – An Overview
I1 T (R P) n
Kd
R P 2
Example: Calculating the Cost of Debt
Indhra Limited has issued Rs. 20 crore worth of non-convertible debentures,
each at a face value of Rs. 100, at a rate of 12 percent. Each debenture is
redeemable at a premium of 5 percent, after 10 years. If the net amount
realized is Rs. 95, what is the cost per debenture? Assume the tax rate is 40%.
Given, I = 12, T = 0.4 P = Rs. 95,
n = 10 years, R = Rs. 105,
It is the discount rate that equates the net proceeds from preference capital issue
to the payments associated with the same i.e., dividend payment and principal
payments. It is represented by ‘Kp’. The cost of preference capital is calculated
by using the following formula
n D R
P
t 1
1 K p t 1 K p n
Where, P = Net amount realized per share
D = Preference dividend per share payable annually
R = Redemption price
n = Maturity period.
Following is the approximated formula to find the cost of preference capital;
D R P n
Kp
R P 2
106
Financial Analysis of Projects
12 100 95 12
Kp
(100 95) 2
= .127 or 12.7%
Exercises
E. Tushaar Manufacturing Limited issued preference shares of Rs. 100 face
value carrying a 15% dividend repayable at par after 12 years. The net
amount realized per share is Rs. 95. Find the cost of preference capital.
F. Sacred Enterprises has a total capital base of Rs. 50 million in the ratio of
1:1 of debt-equity. The post-tax costs of debt and equity are 6% and 9%,
respectively. Calculate the cost of capital of the company.
107
Project Management – An Overview
Several approaches are available to estimate the rate of returns required by the
equity shareholder. They are:
108
Financial Analysis of Projects
The beta factor of RK Industries shares is 1.4. The risk free rate of interest on
government securities is 10%. The expected rate of return on equity shares is
17%. Calculate the cost of equity.
Dt = Dividend per share, for the year t payable at the end of the year t
Pt-1 = Price per share at the end of year t -1, i.e., at the beginning of year t
D t Pt
Yt 1 is also called as wealth ratio, denoted by Wt
Pt 1
The yield for an n-year period is W1 W2 ...... Wn 1/n 1
D t Pt
Here, Wt
Pt 1
109
Project Management – An Overview
D
b. Ks 1 g
P0
D 0 1 g
c. Ks g
P0
D 0 1 g
d. Ks g
P0
14. In the Capital Asset Pricing model, to know the cost of equity we require
i. the risk free rate of return
ii. the return on investment.
iii. the rate of return on market portfolio
iv. the beta of security
a. Only i, ii, and iii
b. Only i, iii, and iv
c. Only ii, iii, and iv
d. i, ii, iii, and iv
Exercises
G. The current dividend paid by LMG Limited is Rs. 15 per share and it is
expected to grow at 5% infinitely. If the current market price per share of
LMG is Rs. 75, calculate the cost of equity.
H. Following are the dividend per share and price per share details of an equity
stock over a period of 10 years.
110
Financial Analysis of Projects
D1
Ks g
Po 1 f
Ke
Ks
1 f
Ke = Rate of return required by equity investors
111
Project Management – An Overview
Ke 0.28
Ks = = 0.3111 or 31.11%.
1 f 1 0.10
1 t p
Kr Ks
1 t g
Kr = Cost of retained earnings
This approach has two limitations: The income tax rate varies from stakeholder
to stakeholder and alternative investment opportunities of the firm are not being
considered as the firm reinvests its cash flows instead of paying dividends.
External yield approach
Here, the firm evaluates the possibility of purchasing shares of other companies
with similar characteristics of risk. So, the opportunity cost of retained earnings
is considered equal to the rate of return that can be earned on such investment.
k a w d k d w pk p w ek e
112
Financial Analysis of Projects
Ke
a. Ks
1 f
b. K K f
s e
Ke
c. Ks
1 f
d. K K f
s e
Exercises
I. The cost of retained earnings of a company is 21%. If the issue expenses as
a percentage of the issue amount are 7%, calculate the cost of external
equity of the company.
(Questions J-O)
Happy Home Needs Private Limited has the following capital structure.
(Rs. in millions)
113
Project Management – An Overview
The market price per equity share is Rs. 50. The next expected dividend is Rs.
10 per share and it is expected to grow at a constant rate of 8%.
The preference shares are redeemable after seven years at par and are currently
quoted at Rs. 80 per share in the stock exchange.
The debentures are redeemable after five years at par and their current market
price is Rs. 95 per debenture. The tax rate is 40%.
Based on the given data, answer the following questions.
J. Calculate the cost of equity capital.
K. Calculate the cost of retained earnings.
L. Calculate the cost of debentures.
M. Calculate the cost of preference capital.
N. Calculate the weighted average cost of capital of the company.
The project manager uses the following criteria to evaluate returns from project
investments. They are:
Non-discounting criteria
Discounting criteria
The non-discounting criterion does not consider the time value of money.
Following are the two methods in non-discounting criteria:
This method estimates the relationship between the average annual profits earned
by a project and the investments made in the project. This is expressed in
percentage form.
A project is accepted when the actual ARR is higher than the minimum desired
ARR. The project manager can also rank all the alternative options in descending
order and choose the project with the highest ARR.
114
Financial Analysis of Projects
115
Project Management – An Overview
1 4000
2 6000
3 4000
4 1000
The payback period for Option A is two years: Rs. 4000 (year 1) + Rs.6,000
(year 2)
In two years, the total investment is recovered. Hence, the payback period is
two years.
Option B:
2 2000
3 5000
4 5000
5 6000
116
Financial Analysis of Projects
At
NPV
t
(1 k)
Advantages of NPV
This method considers the time value of money.
It considers the total benefits accruing out of the option over its life -time.
Disadvantages of NPV
117
Project Management – An Overview
Option-2:
Year Net cash flows
1 4000
2 5000
3 4500
4 3500
5 3000
For Option-1, the NPV is:
5000 5000 4000 3000 500
10000 = Rs. 4,636.
1.08 1.082 1.083 1.084 1.085
For Option-2, the NPV is:
4000 5000 4500 3500 3000
10000 = Rs. 6,177.
1.08 1.082 1.083 1.084 1.085
Since the NPV of Option-2 is higher, it is accepted.
118
Financial Analysis of Projects
To solve this, we consider interest rates on a trial and error basis and find the
rate that makes sum of cash flows equal to zero.
Here r = 28.7%.
For Option 2:
r = 30.63%
So, we select Option-2 as it has the higher IRR.
119
Project Management – An Overview
16,177
For Option 2, PI 1.6177
10,000
Since the PI of Option 2 is higher, it is accepted.
Exercises
O. A company is considering an investment option. The initial investment is
Rs. 200,000 and the average annual profit is Rs. 25,000. Calculate the
average rate of return of the proposal.
P. Project Z requires an investment of Rs. 20 million. The cash flows generated
by the project are given below. What is the payback period for the project?
End of Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
Cash flow (in Rs. million) 1 2 4 5 8 5
(Questions Q-T)
A firm has two options; each of them costing Rs. 50,000 and having a life period
of 5 years. Assume a required rate of return of 7%, after taxes. The net cash
flows for both the projects are shown below.
Option 1:
Option 2:
120
Financial Analysis of Projects
Normally, three types of project risks are studied for each project idea. They are
stand alone risk, corporate risk, and systematic risk.
Corporate Risk
This refers to the risk a firm faces because of a project.
Systematic Risk
This risk is caused by the existing market situation. This risk is also called
market risk.
121
Project Management – An Overview
Sensitivity Analysis
This technique is used to find out how sensitive the results of a particular financial
model are to changes in input variables. For example, the net present value of a
project depends on several factors like selling price of the product, annual sales,
project life period, income tax etc. Sensitivity analysis aims at examining how net
present value changes with changes in the above factors. To carry out this analysis,
the project manager establishes a relationship between the net present value and
factors that affect the net present value. Then he studies the range of net present
values with variations in each of the factors affecting it. By understanding the
affect of several factors, the project manager estimates the possibility of achieving
the project objectives.
Scenario Analysis
In sensitivity analysis, we can study the changes in the NPV with changes in one
of the variables. But most of the time in real life projects, two or more variables
change at the same time and the changes may be interrelated. In such situations,
scenario analysis is used. If the variables are interrelated, then it is helpful to
look at some plausible market scenarios or market conditions where each
scenario represents a consistent combination of variables. This type of analysis is
called scenario analysis.
In scenario analysis, different scenarios are generated and the desirability of the
project is studied in each scenario. The objective of such scenario analysis is to
get a feel of what happens under the most favorable or the most adverse
combination of key variables, without bothering much about the internal
consistency of such combinations. Therefore, it is considered to be the most
suitable technique for analyzing the fate of a project in different scenarios or
market conditions.
122
Financial Analysis of Projects
There are several evaluation methods for testing the social desirability of a
project. Some of the important indicators of the social desirability of a project
are discussed below.
Employment Opportunities
In countries where there is a dearth of capital, a project that gives a higher output
per unit of capital employed is preferred.
123
Project Management – An Overview
124
Financial Analysis of Projects
the impact of the product is on international trade, then the shadow price is the
foreign exchange value of the product. In the case of pure tradable goods, the
shadow price of a good is the international price of the good since there exists no
opportunity cost in the country. Taxation makes it difficult to calculate shadow
prices.
In this step, the project manager estimates the impact of the project on the
savings of different social groups like the customers, government and other
private businesses.
Where, Δ i is the net income change because of the project and MPSi is the
marginal propensity to save. The marginal propensity to save is the fraction of
each extra rupee of income that goes to saving.
Assume three groups were affected by the project and their net income gains
were;
125
Project Management – An Overview
126
Financial Analysis of Projects
c. iii-iv-v-i-ii
d. iii-i-ii-v-iv
22. Profitability of the project is the
a. sum of profit and capital employed.
b. percentage of profit to the capital employed.
c. percentage of capital employed to the profit.
d. difference between profit and capital employed.
23. Which of the following options would be the best to use in order to
understand the redistribution of income?
a. Price elasticity of demand
b. Income elasticity of demand
c. Elasticity of marginal utility of income
d. All of the above
24. Identify the statements that are not correct with regard to the elasticity of
marginal utility of income.
i. Elasticity of marginal utility of income is used to understand the
redistribution of income.
ii. Elasticity of marginal utility of income is the rate at which the marginal
utility of income increases with an increase in income level.
iii. The project’s impact on income distribution is adjusted by assigning
weights to each income group on the basis of income levels.
iv. Weights are given based on the income levels, i.e., less weight is given
to low income groups and more weight is assigned to high income
groups.
a. Only i and ii
b. Only i and iii
c. Only ii and iv
d. Only iii and iv
25. Goods whose social value is more than their economic value are called
a. merit goods.
b. veblen goods.
c. demerit goods.
d. giffen goods.
Exercises
U. The net income gains of Group P, Group Q, and Group R because of
execution of a project are Rs. 10,000, Rs. 9,000, and Rs. 12,000. The
marginal propensity to save (MPS) of P, Q, and R is 0.02, 0.12, and 0.03,
respectively. Calculate the net impact of the project on the savings of the
three groups.
127
Project Management – An Overview
4.11 Summary
The primary objective of any project is to earn reasonable returns for the
investment made.
The project manager must examine the financial feasibility of projects when
selecting a project for implementation.
In this process, the project manager first estimates the total cost of the project
and then identifies various means for financing the project.
Share capital, term loans, debenture capital, deferred credit are some of the
means for financing a project. Then the project manager identifies the working
capital needs of the project and the means for financing the needs.
The project manager uses two criteria to evaluate rate of returns of project
investments: non-discounted criteria and discounted criteria.
The time value of money is ignored in non-discounted criteria but is considered
in the discounted criteria.
The important methods in the non-discounted criteria are Average Rate of
Return and Payback Period method.
The time value of money is considered in the discounted criteria, and Net
Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and Profitability Index are important
methods in this criteria.
Sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis are used by the project manager to
analyze the risks involved in each project investment.
Also, the project manager studies each project proposal from the point of view
of the society.
Project managers use Social Cost Benefit Analysis to study a project’s impact
on the society. The United Nations Industrial Development Organization
(UNIDO) has developed an approach, called UNIDO approach in this regard.
4.12 Glossary
Corporate risk: This refers to the risk a firm faces because of a project.
Cost of capital: The minimum rate of return the firm must earn on its
investments in order to satisfy the various categories of investors who have
made investments in the form of shares, debentures, term loans, etc. A firm’s
cost of capital is the weighted arithmetic average of the post-tax cost of the
various sources of finance used by it.
128
Financial Analysis of Projects
Cost of debenture: The discount rate at which the present value of post-tax
interest and principal repayments is equal to the net proceeds from the issue of
debentures.
Cost of external equity capital: The rate of return that the company must earn
on the net funds raised by it when it issues equity capital externally.
Cost of preference capital: The discount rate that equates the net proceeds
from the preference capital issue to the payments associated with it like dividend
payment and principal payments.
Deferred credit: The credit provided by the machinery and equipment suppliers
is referred to as deferred credit.
Internal rate of return: The discount rate at which the present values of cash
outflows and cash inflows are equal.
Net present value: The sum of the present values of all the cash inflows and
cash outflows associated with the project.
Payback period: The time period during which a firm can recover the
investments it has made in a project.
Profitability index: The ratio of future cash benefits to the initial outflows is
called as profitability index. It is also called as benefit-cost ratio.
Project cost: The project cost is the sum of all the costs of the activities
associated with the project.
Scenario analysis: In this case, different scenarios are generated and the
desirability of the project is studied in each scenario. The objective of such
scenario analysis is to get a feel of what happens under the most favorable or the
most adverse combination of key variables, without bothering much about the
internal consistency of such combinations.
Sensitivity analysis: This technique is used to find out how sensitive the results
of a particular financial model are to changes in input variables.
Social benefit: It refers to the positive impact of a project on society, like
increase in employment opportunities, rise in per capita income etc.
Social cost benefit analysis: It assesses the positive and negative effects of a
project on society. According to this analysis, the project manager chooses the
project that is socially beneficial.
Social cost: It refers to the harmful effects of a project to society like air
pollution, water pollution, soil erosion, deforestation, production of harmful
products, etc.
Stand alone risk: It refers to the risk a project faces when it is considered in
isolation.
Systematic risk: This risk arises from the existing market situation. This risk is
also called market risk.
Weighted average cost of capital: The sum of weighted values obtained by
multiplying the cost of each source of financing by its proportion in the capital
structure.
129
Project Management – An Overview
130
Financial Analysis of Projects
To assess the financial feasibility of a project idea, the project manager must
examine the capital costs, operating costs, and the revenues of the proposed
project. Price elasticity of demand is part of conducting the demand analysis
of a product and is used to forecast demand.
To assess the financial feasibility of a project idea, the project manager must
examine the capital costs, operating costs, and revenues of the proposed
project. To conduct a financial analysis, the project manager must collect
information about all the costs pertaining to the project, different ways of
financing the project, working capital requirements, profitability projections,
and projected cash flows of the project.
Share capital is of two types – equity capital and preference capital. Equity
capital is the capital contributed by the owners of the firm. Equity holders
enjoy the profits and bear the risks of the firm. Term loans are secured
borrowings provided by financial institutions and commercial banks. These
loans help firms take up expansion, modernization, and renovation projects.
Deferred credit refers to the amount that a firm receives but has still not
reported as income. The amount is actually a liability that is realized at a
future date, when the goods or services are provided. In a project, the
machinery and equipment suppliers may provide credit facilities to firms.
This credit amount is repaid over a period of time depending on the value of
the machinery and the credit standing of the buyer. Generally, suppliers
demand a bank guarantee which is equivalent to the value of the machinery.
It is repaid over a period of time, depending on the value of the machinery
and the credit standing of the buyer. Debentures are issued by firms to raise
debt capital, normally for a period of 5 to 10 years. The debentures are
secured against the assets of the issuing firm.
5. (b) Debentures are secured against the liabilities of the issuing firm.
Debentures are issued by firms to raise debt capital, normally for a period of
5 to 10 years. The debentures are secured against the assets of the issuing
firm. There are three types of debentures: non-convertible debentures,
partially convertible debentures, and fully convertible debentures. A fixed
interest is paid on non-convertible debentures. In the case of partially
convertible debentures, only a part of them are converted into equity shares.
Where fully convertible debentures are concerned, all the debentures are
fully converted into equity shares as per pre-determined terms.
131
Project Management – An Overview
132
Financial Analysis of Projects
1 r n 1
10. (a) FVAn = A
r
A[(1 r) n 1]
FVA n
r
Where, A = Constant periodic flow
r = Interest rate per period
n = Duration of the annuity
11. (b) Cost of capital
Cost of capital is the minimum rate of return that a company must earn on
its investments in order to satisfy the various categories of investors who
have made investments in the form of shares, debentures, or term loans.
The cost of capital of a company is the weighted arithmetic average of the
cost of various sources of finance that have been used by it.
12. (b) weighted average
The cost of capital of a company is the weighted arithmetic average of the cost of
various sources of finance that have been used by it. Costs of equity, retained
earnings, preference capital, debentures, and term loans are first calculated and
weights are attached to them in order to calculate the weighted average cost of
capital.
D 0 1 g
13. (d) K s g
P0
D1
Ks = g , where, D1 = D0 (1 + g).
P0
133
Project Management – An Overview
Ke
15. (c) K s
1 f
Ke
Ks
1 f
where,
Ks = cost of external equity
Ke = rate of return required by the equity investors.
f = floatation cost
Floatation costs are included in order to adjust for the issue expenses and in
case the pricing of the share in an IPO is done at less than the market value.
134
Financial Analysis of Projects
Projects affect society. Therefore, they should be studied from the point of
view of their impact on society. The project manager has to analyze the
social and economic benefits generated by the project and also the social
costs of the project. Social cost benefit analysis is a technique that assesses
the positive and negative effects of the project on society. Scenario analysis
is used if the variables that affect the project output are inter-related. This
analysis identifies combinations of inputs that lead to a change in output
values. Sensitivity analysis is used to find out how sensitive the results of a
particular financial model are to changes in input variables.
UNIDO has developed a method for measuring social costs and social
benefits. Following are the steps involved in the method: Calculate financial
profitability at market prices, calculate net benefits at economic prices,
adjust for the project’s impact on savings and investment, adjust for the
project’s impact on income distribution, and adjust for impact of the project
on merit and demerit goods.
The project manager assesses the net profitability of the project on the basis
of the market prices of all inputs and outputs. The profit is obtained by
subtracting the expenditure incurred from the firm’s revenues. The project
manager calculates the profitability of the project as the percentage of profit
to the capital employed.
135
Project Management – An Overview
where,
PV = Rs. 10,000
r = nominal interest rate per annum = 14% per annum.
m = frequency of compounding during a year = 4 times a year
n = number of years for which compounding is done = 3 years
43
0.14
FV3 = 10,000 1 = 10,000 (1.035)12 = Rs. 15,110.69.
4
C. Rs. 1,113.80
0.14
Nominal rate of interest per month = = 0.01167
12
136
Financial Analysis of Projects
1 r n 1 1 0.0116712 1
PVAn = A n = 100 12
r 1 r 0.01167 1 0.01167
1.1494 1
= 100 = Rs. 1,113.80
0.01167 1.1494
D. Rs. 103.79
0.09
Nominal rate of interest per month = = 0.0075
12
n
A 1 r 1
PVA n n
r 1 r
1 0.007560 1
5000 = A
60
0.0075 1 0.0075
1.5657 1
5000 = A
0.0075 1.5657
5000 = A (48.1744)
5000
A= = Rs. 103.79.
48.1744
E. 15.81%
R P
D
Kp = n
RP
2
where,
Kp = cost of preference capital
D = preference dividend per share payable annually = 15%
R = redemption price = Rs. 100
P = net amount realized per share = Rs. 95
n = maturity period = 12 years
137
Project Management – An Overview
R P 100 95
D 15
Kp = n = 12 = 0.1581 = 15.81%.
RP 100 95
2 2
F. 7.5%
50 50
= 6% 9% = 7.5%.
100 100
G. 26%
D
Ks 1 g
P0
where,
D1 = Expected dividend = D0 (1 + g)
D0 = 15, g = Growth rate = 5%
D1= D0 (1 + g) = 15 (1 + 0.05) = 15.75
P0 = Market price
Ks = (15.75/75) + 0.05 = 0.26 or 26%.
H. 112.17%
138
Financial Analysis of Projects
where,
t = 1, 2,.... n.
Dt = dividend per share for year ‘t’ payable at the end of year
Pt = price per share at the end of year ‘t’
Pt-1 = price per share at the end of year ‘t-1’ (i.e., price per share at the
beginning of year ‘t’)
Wealth ratios:
W1 = 0
D 2 P2 10 12
W2 = = = 2.2
P2 - 1 10
D 3 P3 12 14
W3 = = = 2.167
P3 - 1 12
Ke
Ks =
1 f
where,
Ks = cost of external equity
Ke = rate of return required by the equity investors = 21%
f = floatation costs as a percentage of the current market price = 7%
0.21
Ks = = 0.2258 or 22.58%.
1 0.07
J. 28%
D1
Ke = g
P0
where,
D1 = Expected dividend = Rs. 10
g = Growth rate = 8%
139
Project Management – An Overview
10
Ke = 0.08 = 0.28 or 28%.
50
K. (c) 28%
Cost of retained earnings is equal to the rate of return expected by the
equity investors. Therefore, cost of retained earnings, kr = cost of equity, ke
= 28%.
L. 10.26%
R P
I (1 T )
Kd = n
RP
2
where,
Kd = post-tax cost of debenture capital
I = annual interest payment per debenture capital = 15%
T = corporate tax rate = 40%
R = redemption price per debenture = Rs. 100
P = net amount realized per debenture = Rs. 95
n = maturity period = 5 years
100 95
15 (1 0.40)
Kd = 5 = 10.26%.
100 95
2
M. 16.51%
R P
D
Kp = n
RP
2
where,
Kp = cost of preference capital
D = preference dividend per share payable annually = 12%
R = redemption price = Rs. 100
P = net amount realized per share = Rs. 80
n = maturity period = 7 years
140
Financial Analysis of Projects
100 80
12
7 14.86
Kp = = = 0.1651 = 16.51%.
100 80 90
2
N. 16.55%
In order to calculate the weighted average cost of capital of the company,
we need the costs of various sources of finance and the weights. The costs
of various sources of finance used by the company are:
Cost of equity capital, ke = 28%
Cost of preference capital, kp = 16.51%
Cost of debentures, kd = 10.26%
Cost of retained earnings, kr = 28%
Weights for these can be calculated using the book value approach. In this,
the weight of a particular source of finance is equal to the book value of
that source divided by the total of the book values of all the sources of
finance used by the company.
That is,
100
we = = 0.2
500
100
wp = = 0.2
500
100
wd = = 0.2
500
100
wr = = 0.2
500
Therefore,
Weighted Average Cost of Capital = ke × we + kp × wp + kd × wd + kr × wr =
0.28 × 0.2 + 0.1651 × 0.2 + 0.1026 × 0.2 + 0.28 × 0.2 = 0.056 + 0.03302 +
0.02052 + 0.056 = 0.1655 = 16.55%.
O. 12.5%
141
Project Management – An Overview
25,000
ARR 100 12.5% .
200,000
P. 5 years
The payback period for the project will be 5 years. After 5 years, the total
of all cash flows will be equal to the initial investment:
Rs. 1 million + Rs. 2 million + Rs. 4 million + Rs. 5 million + Rs. 8 million
= Rs. 20 million.
Therefore, payback period = 5 years.
Q. Rs. 12,451
For Option 1, the NPV is:
20000 20000 15000 10000 9000
50000
1.07 1.072 1.07 3 1.074 1.075
= – 50,000 + 18,692 + 17,469 + 12,244 + 7,629 + 6,417 = Rs. 12,451.
R. Rs. 7,446
For Option-2, the NPV is:
T. 1.149
57,446
For Option 2, PI = 1.149
50,000
U. Rs. 1,640
Net income gains of the three groups are:
Group X = Rs. 10,000
Group Y = Rs. 9,000
Group Z = Rs. 12,000
Marginal propensity to save of the three groups is:
MPSX = 0.02
MPSY = 0.12
142
Financial Analysis of Projects
MPSz = 0.03
680
MPSz = = 0.04.
17000
143
Unit 5
Project Selection
Structure
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Objectives
5.3 Criteria for Project Selection Models
5.4 Project Selection Models
5.5 Analyzing the Uncertainty of a Project
5.6 Project Proposal
5.7 Summary
5.8 Glossary
5.9 Self-Assessment Exercises
5.10 Suggested Reading/Reference Material
5.11 Answers to Check Your Progress Questions
5.12 Answers to Exercises
5.1 Introduction
In the previous unit, we have discussed the financial analysis of projects. In this
unit, we shall discuss project selection. Project selection is a systematic process
of choosing a project idea for implementation from the available alternative
project ideas. The project manager attempts to decide which idea to choose,
which technology to develop, and which methodology to follow in selecting a
project. The project manager has to carefully prioritize all the available options
and choose the best. A wrong choice of a project may result in ineffective use of
resources and project failure.
As project clients and management teams become more sophisticated, the focus
of a project organization is mainly on aspects such as how to choose the right
projects and how to prioritize them. Ineffective project selection is the most
common reason for the failure of many projects. It may result from ambiguity in
the framing of objectives, absence of planning, and lack of team coordination.
The project manager has to be very careful in selecting a project. He/she should
consider the objectives and policies of the organization, the availability of
resources, and the selection of the right team to take up the project.
This unit will discuss the criteria for project selection models. We will discuss
the various project selection models and then move on to discuss the ways and
techniques used to analyze the uncertainty of a project. Finally, we shall discuss
project proposal.
Project Selection
5.2 Objectives
By the end of this unit, students should be able to:
5.3.1 Realism
The model considered for selection of a project should consider all the relevant
factors that influence the decision of a project manager. The model should
explicitly state the objectives of the project manager and the firm in selecting a
particular project. It should also consider the risks (technical, cost, time and
performance risks) that a project may encounter.
For example, consider a firm that has three projects in hand; Project ‘A’, Project
‘B’, and Project ‘C’. Project ‘A’ is an innovative project that improves the image
of the firm, but requires lot of capital investment. Project ‘B’ can gain
competitive edge for the firm by strengthening the capabilities of its scientists
and skilled labor. Project ‘C’ can increase the sales of the firm by adding new
features to the existing product. The project selection model should be a
common measurement system that is capable of comparing different projects.
Then the best project can be selected based on firm’s ability to execute the
project successfully.
5.3.2 Capability
The selection model that the project manager considers should be capable of
providing the optimum decision taking into consideration all the risks and
constraints involved in the project. The selection model should have the
145
Project Management – An Overview
5.3.3 Costs
The various costs incurred in obtaining the right selection model should be kept
at minimum. The costs associated with designing a selection model include data
generation costs, data processing and storage costs. The objective here is to
identify the best selection model and optimize the costs incurred to select the
decision model based on the size of the project. Firms should also ensure that the
project costs do not exceed the benefits of the project.
5.3.4 Flexibility
The selection model should provide the desired results within the given
conditions and taking into account the firm’s interests. The model should be easy
to modify or should be capable of adjusting on its own to the changes in the
firm’s environment.
Answer:
146
Project Selection
147
Project Management – An Overview
5. Ineffective project selection is the most common reason for the failure of
many projects. This may be the outcome of
i. ambiguity in the framing of objectives.
ii. absence of planning.
iii. lack of team coordination.
a. Only i and ii
b. Only i and iii
c. Only ii and iii
d. i, ii, and iii
6. Which of the following statements are true regarding a project selection
model?
i. The selection model should explicitly state the intentions of the project
manager and the firm in selecting a particular project.
ii. It should have the capability to evaluate future project proposals
without subjectivity, based on the expected returns of each project.
iii. The selection model should provide the desired results within the given
conditions, taking into account the firm’s interests.
iv. It should be convenient to implement and easy to communicate.
a. Only i, ii, and iii
b. Only i, iii, and iv
c. Only ii, iii, and iv
d. i, ii, iii, and iv
7. Which of the following options should the project manager consider in order
to select an effective project?
i. Objectives and policies of the organization
ii. Availability of resources
iii. Number of new employees
iv. Selection of the right team to take up the project
a. Only i, ii, and iii
b. Only i, ii, and iv
c. Only i, iii, and iv
d. Only ii, iii, and iv
148
Project Selection
do not provide a complete decision. Even though the task of selecting a project is
delegated to a specific person or team, the ultimate responsibility to choose a
right project lies with project manager.
In order to construct a project selection model, the project manager generates a
list of objectives. The list includes the goals and interests of the firm such as
improving the brand image, generating employment for certain categories of
workers, expanding the business etc. The list of objectives can also be refined by
assigning specific weights to each objective. This prioritizes the firm’s
objectives and is useful in understanding the relationship between the project’s
expected results and organizational goals. With the availability of new
technologies, the project manager can create a Decision Support System (DSS)
for evaluating and selecting a project.
These models use inputs other than numerical data to select a project. These
models are constructed based on the subjective evaluation, ideas and opinions of
the project manager and the project team. Although these models seem simple to
use, they require the team to understand the practical use of these models.
Sacred Cow
In this model, the firms select projects that enjoy support of the higher officials.
For example, when a CEO of an electronics company foresees a high market
demand for Internet-ready TVs, then the firm takes up the project of developing
a television that facilitates Internet access. Here, the project is selected because
the suggestion came from a key executive in the firm and resources are provided
in accordance with the interests of the top management.
The project is considered ‘sacred’ as everyone in the firm tries to make the
project a success. These projects do not face any resource constraints generally
and they are persisted with, until a satisfactory product is delivered. Most of
these projects are successful because of the ability and experience of the key
executive who gave the project idea, and also because of the top management’s
interest in making the project a success. These projects are terminated only when
the top management is convinced that the project is a failure.
New projects are taken up as extensions to the existing product line, in order to
fill the gaps between the market offer and customer needs. This type of project is
treated as a part of the organization’s strategy. Therefore, it is free from
establishing a selection criterion. Firms take up projects to cater to the unfulfilled
needs of the customer and to strengthen their product line.
Operating Necessity
Some projects are initiated in order to cater to the operating necessity of some
other existing projects. For example, a special project like building a dike is
necessary for operating a project that is facing a threat of inundation. Similarly,
149
Project Management – An Overview
Competitive Necessity
The competition in the market forces the management to take up new projects.
For example, the need for computerizing in an organization arose out of
competitive necessity to provide better services to the customers and to survive
in the market. Similarly, many business schools are restructuring their courses to
stay afloat and gain competitive advantage.
Comparitive Benefit
When an organization has many projects in hand, the top management chooses
the most beneficial project. This is because of the comparative benefit that a
project has relative to other projects. Firms initiate certain projects as an attempt
to construct a portfolio that best fits the firm’s objectives and its capacity.
Q-Sort Technique
150
Project Selection
151
Project Management – An Overview
Firms depend on numeric models heavily while selecting a project. Most firms
consider the numeric models more useful than non-numeric models which are
very subjective and unscientific. Broadly, numeric models are of two types --
profit/profitability models and scoring models.
The profit/ profitability models that are followed by the project manager are --
Payback Period, Average Rate of Return (ARR), Net Present Value (NPV),
Internal rate of Return (IRR), and Profitability Index.
Payback Period: The payback period method is the simplest way of looking at
one or more major project ideas. Payback period indicates how long the project
takes to earn back the money spent on the project. The formula to find the
payback period is: Cost of Project divided by Annual Cash Inflow from Project.
If a project costs Rs.50,000 and expects to earn Rs.12,000 annually, then the
payback period of the project would be 50,000 ÷ 12,000 = 4.16 years. The
project manager selects the project with a lower payback period.
Average Rate of Return (ARR): The project manager selects the project that
gives a reasonable rate of return for the investment made. The project manager
considers the Average Rate of Return of the project before selecting it as it is a
simple way of gauging the return on an investment.
The Average Rate of Return (ARR) is calculated using the following formula:
152
Project Selection
Cost of project
b.
Annual cash inflow from project
154
Project Selection
155
Project Management – An Overview
23. A project will be accepted if the net present value of the project is
a. lower.
b. higher.
c. negative.
d. positive.
24. Identify the correct formula to calculate the payback period.
Annual cash inflows
a.
Initial investment
Cost of project
b.
Annual cash inflow from project
Exercises
A. Project X requires an investment of Rs. 1,000,000. It expects to earn Rs.
200,000 per annum. Calculate the payback period of the project.
B. A machine costs Rs. 15,000 and is expected to return Rs. 5,000 per year for
5 years. Depreciation for the machine is Rs. 2,500 per year. Calculate the
approximate average rate of return on this investment.
C. A machine costs Rs. 10,000 and is expected to return Rs. 3,000 per year for
3 years. After 3 years, the machine can be sold at Rs. 4,000. Calculate the
average rate of return of the investment.
each project idea. The evaluators rate every project idea, and the management
selects the project with the highest factor score. The advantage of using this
technique is that it gives equal weightage to the opinions of all the raters and
produces an explicit final result.
157
Project Management – An Overview
Project scores provide only a relative measure, but they cannot exactly reflect
the utility of the project.
Other Approaches
The project manager can use the ‘Iterative rating method’ as an alternative to
scoring models. Here, the project manager ranks all the projects based on a set of
predetermined attributes. The attributes that do not differentiate the project
alternatives are ignored. The project that satisfies the most number of attributes
is finally selected.
The model employed for selection of a project should be relevant, consistent and
sufficient. Very few project managers use mathematical programming
techniques for selection criterion and most projects are selected on the basis of
convenience. Many people prefer weighted scoring model that consider the
multiple objectives of the organization, are easy to modify in the changing
environment and are not biased.
158
Project Selection
159
Project Management – An Overview
trying to find out the cost and performance specifications that should be
achieved by the new product or process ideas before they are sent for R&D. So
the project manager visualizes a window -of- opportunity for the innovation that
would be the result of the project.
According to this analysis, the project manager analyzes the current production
process in detail and notes down all the activities that would be improved by the
added innovation. Depending on this baseline data relating to the current process
and its performance, the project manager estimates the performance of the
innovation as a fraction of the baseline system. This makes the process of project
selection easier for the project manager.
161
Project Management – An Overview
162
Project Selection
163
Project Management – An Overview
The major subsystems of the project and the organization’s approach to each
subsystem should be noted down for complex projects. The techniques to meet the
special technical requirements of the client should be clearly stated in the project
proposal.
This part of the project proposal provides the estimates of the schedule, costs,
materials used for each major subsystem. Costs and time are then aggregated to
estimate the total cost and duration of the project. Gantt Charts, Critical Path
Method (CPM), Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) are used to
present the plan of implementation for each major subsystem. The major phases of
the project and their estimated completion time are also provided to check the pace
of implementation.
The proposal provides a detailed description of how all the needed equipment,
and routing facilities are arranged. It also describes the administration
procedures of all the departments, the method of transportation of raw materials,
performance measurement of subcontractors, conduction of internal and external
audits, and quality checks. This section should also cover in detail how change
orders are to be handled.
A detailed list of the key project employees, their qualifications, their job
descriptions and their experience is provided in the description of the group’
section of the proposal. The proposal should convince the outside agency or the
sponsor that the project team is capable of executing the project. In case of
internal projects, the names and designations of all project members is enough.
164
Project Selection
165
Project Management – An Overview
39. Which of the following options is the initial document that converts an idea
or policy into details of a potential project, including the outcomes, outputs,
major risks, costs, stakeholders, and an estimate of the resources and time
required?
a. Project plan
b. Project status report
c. Project proposal
d. Project progress report
40. In the project proposal, which of the following sections discusses the
conduct of internal and external audits and quality checks?
a. Plan of implementation
b. Plan of administration and logistics
c. Technical nature of the project
d. Both (b) and (c)
41. Identify the techniques that are used to prepare a plan of implementation for
each major subsystem of the project.
i. Gantt charts
ii. Nominal group technique
iii. Critical path method
iv. Program evaluation and review technique
a. Only i, ii, and iii
b. Only i, iii, and iv
c. Only ii, iii, and iv
d. i, ii, iii, and iv
5.7 Summary
Project selection is a systematic process of choosing a project idea for
implementation from the available alternative project ideas. The project
manager attempts to decide which idea to choose, which technology to develop,
and which methodology to follow in selecting a project.
Project selection models are broadly of two types: numeric and non-numeric.
Numeric models use numbers as inputs and non-numeric models use
discussions, suggestions to select a project.
Non-numeric models use inputs other than numerical data to select a project.
These models are constructed based on the subjective evaluation, ideas and
opinions of the project manager and the project team.
The project selection model should fulfill the following characteristic – realism,
capability, cost, flexibility, ease of use, and easy computerization.
166
Project Selection
The conditions under which the decisions are made by the project manager can
be classified into three categories: risk, uncertainty, and certainty.
A majority of the decisions made in project management come under uncertain
conditions, and so the project manager assumes subjective probabilities for each
state of nature to find the expected values of the projects.
The project manager tries to reduce the uncertainty of a project by preparing
proforma documents that estimate the profit and loss of the projects. Techniques
like risk assessment, simulation analysis and window-of-opportunity analysis
provide useful information in dealing with uncertainty.
Project proposal is the initial document that converts an idea or policy into
details of a potential project, including the outcomes, outputs, major risks, costs,
stakeholders and an estimate of the resourcing and time required. It is prepared
after a careful evaluation of several projects and the factors influencing each
project.
5.8 Glossary
Average Rate of Return (or accounting rate of return): Method used to
measure the relationship between the average annual profits earned by a project
and the investments made in it.
Internal Rate of Return: The discount rate at which the present values of cash
outflows and cash inflows are equal.
Net Present Value: It is the net present value of all future cash flows from the
project. It is a method that compares the value of a rupee today with the value of
the rupee in the future.
Non-numeric Selection Models: A project selection model that uses inputs
other than the numerical data to select a project. The model uses discussions,
suggestions to select a project.
Numeric Selection Model: A project selection model that uses numbers as
inputs to select a project.
Payback Period: The time period during which a firm can recover the
investments it has made in a project.
Profitability Index (or benefit-cost ratio): The ratio of future cash benefits to
the initial outflows is called as profitability index.
Project Proposal: An initial document that converts an idea or policy into
details of a potential project, including the outcomes, outputs, major risks, costs,
stakeholders and an estimate of the resources and time required.
Project Selection: A systematic process of choosing a project idea for
implementation from the available alternative project ideas.
Q-Sort Technique: A project evaluation and selection technique used to
prepare a list of priority projects.
Simulation: It involves imitating the behavior of some situation or process by
using a similar situation in order to study the characteristics of the variables in
the situation. It can also be defined as the method of solving decision-making
problems by designing, constructing, and operating a model of the real system.
167
Project Management – An Overview
168
Project Selection
169
Project Management – An Overview
170
Project Selection
The project manager selects the project that gives a reasonable rate of return
for the investment made. The average rate of return method is simple to
calculate as it uses readily available accounting information. A quick
decision can be taken by comparing the average rate of return values of
various projects.
Annual Cash Inflows - Depreciaton
Average Rate of Return (ARR) =
Initial Investment
171
Project Management – An Overview
Cost of project
24. (b)
Annual cash inflow from project
The payback period method is the simplest way of looking at one or more
major project ideas. Payback period indicates how long the project takes to
earn back the money spent on it. The formula to find the payback period is
Cost of project
Annual cash inflow from project
.
172
Project Selection
173
Project Management – An Overview
174
Project Selection
B. 17%
Initial investment = Rs. 15,000
Depreciation = Rs. 2,500 per annum.
Annual cash inflows = Rs. 5,000
5,000 - 2,500
ARR = = 16.67% = 17% (approximately)
15,000
C. 10%
Cost = Rs. 10,000
Salvage value = Rs. 4,000
Useful life = 3 years
1 0, 000 4 ,000
= = Rs. 2,000 per annum.
3
Annual cash inflows = Rs. 3,000
3,000 - 2,000
ARR = = 10%.
10,000
176
Project & Operations Management
Course Components
BLOCK I Project Management – An Overview
Unit 1 Introduction to Project Management
Unit 2 Project Idea Generation and Screening
Unit 3 Market and Technical Analysis of Projects
Unit 4 Financial Analysis of Projects
Unit 5 Project Selection
BLOCK II Project Planning and Control
Unit 6 Management of Project Scope
Unit 7 Identifying Project Activities
Unit 8 Activities: Sequencing, Estimating Duration, and Scheduling
Unit 9 Project Review
Unit 10 Project Control
BLOCK III Project Implementation and Closing
Unit 11 Project Cost Management
Unit 12 Project Risk Management
Unit 13 Project Quality Management
Unit 14 Project Auditing
Unit 15 Project Closing
BLOCK IV Introduction to Operations Management
Unit 16 Operations Management and Operations Strategy
Unit 17 Forecasting Demand
Unit 18 Allocating Resources to Strategic Alternatives
Unit 19 Design of Production Processes
BLOCK V Design of Facilities and Operations Planning
Unit 20 Facility Location and Layout
Unit 21 Aggregate Planning and Capacity Planning
Unit 22 Fundamentals of Inventory Control
Unit 23 Purchase Management
Unit 24 Materials Management
BLOCK VI Operations Control
Unit 25 Operations Scheduling
Unit 26 Enterprise Resource Planning
Unit 27 Supply Chain Management
Unit 28 Just-In-Time (JIT) Manufacturing System
Unit 29 Productivity and Quality Management
Unit 30 Facilities and Maintenance Management
BLOCK VII Current Trends in Operations Management
Unit 31 Trends in Operations Technology
Unit 32 Globalization and Operations Management
Unit 33 Sustainability and Operations Management