HOSPITALITY SERVICES FORECAST REPORT

The hotel market is showing a positive

upturn characterised by a surge in
activity
Quarterly | Bali | April 2024

Insights & recommendations

Evidenced by a notable uptick in tourist arrivals, paralleled by improved hotel performance, Bali is
experiencing a resurgence in activity, reasserting its status as a premier tourism destination. Traditionally, in
the month of Ramadan, tourist footfall tends to taper off, particularly among local visitors, particularly those
travelling in groups or representing corporations.
However, it is anticipated that the number of tourists, especially from the domestic market, will rebound
significantly during the Eid holiday and is projected to remain on an upward trajectory until the year-end.
Furthermore, Bali is poised to host several large-scale events in the coming months, underscoring the need
for proactive preparation to accommodate the influx of guests.

Q1 Full Year 2024–26

2024 2024 Annual Avg

Until 2025, the availability of new hotel

Supply
accommodations in Bali is expected to remain
extremely scarce. 457 rooms 507 rooms 214 rooms

Annual Avg
QOQ/ YOY/ Growth 2024–26/
End Q1 End 2024 End 2026

Occupancy rates are projected to rise once more -5.6% 0.5% 0.7%
in early Q2, spurred by the Eid holiday and
Occupancy subsequently the school holidays. 64.8% 70.9%

-1.8% 1.3% 0.4%

Room rates typically correlate with occupancy
levels.
Room rate USD133 USD137.1

Source: Colliers. Note: IDR15,656 = 1 USD. 1 square m = 10.76 square ft.

Impact of pandemic on hotel operations: Annual room supply
delays and anticipated resumptions
3-Star 4-Star 5-Star
The reduced occupancy rates of hotels during the 1,000
pandemic have compelled numerous hotel owners
800
to defer the operation of their establishments.
Furthermore, several hotels that were compelled to 600
cease operations during the pandemic are expected
to resume business operations, on average, by the 400
end of 2021 or early 2022.
200

0
Supply

2024E

2025E

2026E
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Q1 2024
-200
Challenges in Bali’s hotel industry
amidst supply constraints -400
Source: Colliers
The 457 new rooms are rooms from newly
renovated hotels. The total number of rooms
available in Bali stands at 58,854, comprising 24% 3- Tourism
star, 42% 4-star and 34% 5-star accommodations. In
The influx of tourists, both local and international, to
our record, the average annual increase in new hotel
Bali continues to surge. According to available data,
supply in Bali has been steadily declining. Before the
the number of arrivals of both foreign and domestic
pandemic (2015-2019), the average annual growth
tourists in January 2024 exceeded the figures for the
was 1,900 rooms per year. However, between 2020
same period in 2021, 2022 and 2023. This indicates
and Q1 2024, the growth rate has plummeted to 136
an improvement in Bali’s tourism.
rooms per year. Additionally, many hotels have
permanently closed during the pandemic, further
impacting the available supply.
This situation has presented a favourable scenario
for hoteliers, as the reduced competition coincides
with an uptick in tourist arrivals. Nevertheless,
tourists have begun to voice complaints about Bali
being overly crowded and congested, leading to
discomfort. Moreover, the expensive local airfare to
Bali has prompted travellers to explore alternative
holiday destinations perceived as more cost-
effective.

2
Comparison percentage of domestic and foreign Foreign tourist monthly arrival
tourists
2019 2020 2021
Domestic tourists Foreign tourists 2022 2023 2024
100% 700,000
600,000
80%
500,000

60% 400,000
300,000
40%
200,000
100,000
20%
0

Aug
Jan

Feb

Nov

Dec
June

July

Sept

Oct
Mar

Apr

May

0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Jan-24 Source: Bali Government Tourism
Source: Bali Government Tourism

Domestic tourist monthly arrival Following the pandemic, substantial shifts have
transpired in the overseas markets of Bali,
2019 2020 2021 particularly within the Asia Pacific region (excluding
2022 2023 2024 ASEAN countries). Australia, China, India, Japan and
1,500,000
South Korea continue to dominate as the top five
markets. However, notable disparities are observed,
1,200,000 notably in the Chinese market, which has yet to fully
rebound to pre-pandemic levels. Conversely, there
900,000 has been a notable surge in the Indian and South
Korean markets.
600,000

300,000

0
Aug
Jan
Feb

Nov
Dec
June
July

Sept
Oct
Mar
Apr
May

Source: Bali Government Tourism

Top 5 number of Asia Pacific tourists (except Based on data from the Ministry of Transportation of
ASEAN) the Republic of Indonesia and the Directorate
General of Civil Aviation, there has been a notable
Australia India Japan surge in the number of flights to and from Bali,
South Korea China encompassing both local and international routes.
1,500,000 The most significant increase was witnessed
between 2021 and 2022, marking a 141% rise in
1,200,000 total flights, with a staggering 1,819% surge in
international flights and 75% in local flights. This
900,000
surge in international flights was primarily attributed
600,000 to the gradual reopening of international borders in
2022, a trend observed across many countries,
300,000 including Indonesia, particularly in Bali.
0 Whilst foreign tourist arrivals to Bali have indeed
shown improvement statistically, the government
45292
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

must remain vigilant about the competitive

Source: Bali Government Tourism landscape in tourism, especially with neighbouring
countries such as Thailand and Vietnam. Concerns
arise due to the competitive price of airfare to
Air traffic at the airport - aircraft movement in Thailand compared to flights within Indonesia.
Ngurah Rai Airport Additionally, tourists have voiced grievances
regarding the overcrowding and diminished comfort
International Flights Domestic Flights
levels in Bali.
200,000

160,000
Performance
120,000
The performance of hotels in Bali in January and
80,000 February 2024 has shown improvement compared
to the same period in 2023. This uptick can be
40,000 attributed to the rise in tourist arrivals, both local
and international in January 2024. However, due to
0 the predominance of domestic tourism in Bali, there
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Jan - has been a decline in tourist visits in March,
Feb coinciding with the month of Ramadan.
2024
Source: Ministry of Transportation of the Republic of Indonesia,
Directorate General of Civil Aviation
Despite this, Bali remains a prominent MICE Monthly average occupancy rate (AOR)
(meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions)
destination, especially on an international scale, 2019 2020 2021
although MICE activities tend to wane during
100% 2022 2023 2024
Ramadan. It is anticipated that MICE activities will
rebound following the Eid holiday, particularly with
80%
the scheduling of several international conferences
slated for Bali in 2024. 60%
Looking ahead, hotel performance in Bali is
forecasted to surge once more in Q2 2024 40%
commencing with the Eid holiday. It is estimated that
a considerable number of domestic tourists will 20%
choose Bali as their vacation destination, followed by
0%
visitors from Europe in summer and tourists from

Aug
Jan

Feb

Dec
Nov
Jun

Jul

Oct
Sep
Mar

Apr

May

Asia Pacific countries towards the year-end.

Statistically, Bali’s hotel industry has returned to pre- Source: Colliers
pandemic levels and even surpassed its 2019
performance. However, it is important to note that Monthly average daily rate (ADR)
during the pandemic, many hotels in Bali were
compelled to cease operations, thereby reducing 2019 2020 2021
competition within the hospitality sector.
USD180.00 2022 2023 2024

USD150.00

USD120.00

USD90.00

USD60.00

USD30.00
Aug
Jan
Feb

Dec
Nov
Jun
Jul

Oct
Sep
Mar
Apr
May

Source: Colliers
Appendix
Rebranded
Year of
Hotel Name Previous Name Location Region #Rooms
Operation
5-star
Inna Grand Bali
The Meru Sanur 1966 Jl. Hang Tuah, Sanur Sanur 457
Beach Hotel
Source: Colliers

New pipeline
STR
Project Opening
Hotel Name Equivalent Location Region #Rooms
Status Time
Rate

3-star

Holiday Inn Express Under

Upper Midscale Jl. Sunset Road Seminyak 72 2025
Hotel Sunset Bali construction

4-star

Under
Vasa Hotel Ubud Undefined yet Payangan Ubud 120 2027
construction

5-star

Under
Bali Beach Hotel Undefined yet Jl Hang Tuah Sanur 250 2024
Construction
The Luxury Under
Luxury Jimbaran Jimbaran 75 2026
Collection Jimbaran construction
Kimpton Resort Nusa Dua (ex Under
Upper Upscale Nusa Dua 50 2023
Nusa Dua Amanusa Villa) construction
Source: Colliers
For further information, please contact:

Ferry Salanto Nurul Yonasari

Senior Associate Director | Research Senior Research Executive |
Jakarta Research | Jakarta
62(21) 3043 6888 62(21) 3043 6888
[email protected] [email protected]

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