STATE OF THE

CLIMATE – KENYA
2020
Kenya Meteorological Department
Published in 2021 by the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

By using the content of this publication, the users accept to properly credit the source.

Title: State of the Climate in Kenya 2020.

This Report can be found at www.meteo.go.ke

The complete study should be cited as follows: KMD. 2020. State of the Climate in Kenya 2020

Cover Picture: Ngong Hills power generation Windmills Taken by KMD in 2019
Contents
List of Figures iv
List of Acronyms vi
Acknowledgements vii
Foreword viii
Preface ix
Chapter 1: Introduction 1
Chapter 2: Observed Patterns of key Climatic Parameters during 2020 3
Solar Radiation 3
Temperature 4
Rainfall Performance in 2020 6
Annual Rainfall performance in 2020 15
Chapter 3: Observed Changes of Climate Pattern for 2020 (Current year minus Long-
term mean 17
Precipitation including Trends 17
Temperature (Mean, Maximum and Minimum) including Trends 18
Chapter 4: Observed Climate Drivers 19
Chapter 5: Extreme events in 2020 20
Drought 20
Windstorms 20
Other extreme events relevant to the country 20
Flood events 20
Chapter 6: Socio-economic Impacts of extreme events in various sectors of the economy 23
Agriculture and Food Security 23
Health 23
Early Warning/Disaster Risk Reduction 25
Transportation 25
Water & Energy 25
Infrastructure 25
Chapter 7: Projected Climate patterns for 2021 and likely socio-economic impacts 26
Chapter 8: Summaries of sectoral applications 27
Agrometeorological Report for Year 2020 27
Marine Sector Report 34
Hydrometeorology 34
Chapter 9: Capacity development needs 35
CONCLUSION 36
REFERENCES 37

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 iii

List of Figures
Figure 1: Rainfall Climatological Zones of Kenya...................................................................... 2
Figure 2: Mean annual radiation for select stations ................................................................ 3
Figure 3: Maximum temperature vs LTM .................................................................................... 4
Figure 4: Maximum temperature anomalies .............................................................................. 4
Figure 5: Minimum temperature observed vs long-term mean ............................................ 5
Figure 6: Minimum temperature anomalies ............................................................................... 5
Figure 7:2020 JJA minimum temperature vs LTM .................................................................. 6
Figure 8: January 2020 Rainfall performance ........................................................................... 7
Figure 9: Total rainfall February in comparison to February LTMs ................................... 8
Figure 10: MAM 2020 station rainfall values versus long-term means............................. 9
Figure 11: MAM 2020 seasonal rainfall performance as a percentage of the LTMs ...... 9
Figure 12:JJA rainfall as percentage of LTM ............................................................................ 11
Figure 13:JJA Rainfall totals ......................................................................................................... 12
Figure 14: Comparison of June to August rainfall to LTMs ................................................ 12
Figure 15: October-December 2020 Seasonal Rainfall Performance (%) against OND
LTM ........................................................................................................................................................ 14
Figure 16: October-December 2020 Seasonal Rainfall Totals against OND LTM ........ 14
Figure 17: October, November and December (OND) 2020-rainfall performance
against LTMs ....................................................................................................................................... 15
Figure 18: Bar graph of 2020 station values against their LTMs ...................................... 15
Figure 19: 2020 annual rainfall performance as a percentage of annual LTM ............. 16
Figure 20: Comparison of 2020 total rainfall with the long-term mean. ......................... 17
Figure 21: Total rainfall minus the long-term mean total .................................................... 17
Figure 22: Comparison of 2020 average temperature with the LTM (1981 – 2010) .... 18
Figure 23: Average country temperatures minus the LTM (1981 – 2010) ...................... 18
Figure 24: Residents piled into boats with whatever they could rescue, including
animals, to escape the floodwaters in Buyuku. Image :/COURTESY .............................. 24
Figure 25: A Tanzanian cargo boat capsized due to high seas caused by strong
winds. .................................................................................................................................................... 24
Figure 26: ENSO projection (Source: IRI) .................................................................................. 26

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 iv

List of Tables
Table 1: Recorded windstorm events in July 2020 20
Table 2: Heavy rainfall events during the long rains season (MAM) 21
Table 3: Heavy rainfall events during the Short rains season (OND) 22
Table 4: Summary of Agrometeorological impacts in Western Kenya 27
Table 5: Kakamega MAM & OND impacts review 28
Table 6: Kitale MAM & OND impacts review 28
Table 7: Kericho MAM & OND impacts review 29
Table 8: Kisii MAM & OND impacts review 29
Table 9: Summary of Agrometeorological impacts in Central Kenya 30
Table 10: Nyahururu MAM & OND impacts review 30
Table 11: Nyeri MAM & OND impacts review 31
Table 12: Embu MAM & OND impacts review 31
Table 13: Meru MAM & OND impacts review 32
Table 14: Summary of Agrometeorological impacts in Coastal Kenya 32
Table 15: Mtwapa MAM & OND impacts review 32
Table 16: Msabaha MAM & OND impacts review 33
Table 17: Summary of Agrometeorological impacts in South-eastern Kenya 33
Table 18: Katumani MAM & OND impacts review 34

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 v

List of Acronyms
AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use

CORDEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling

Experiment
ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation

HI Heat Index

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IOD Indian Ocean Dipole

ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

JJA June July August

KMD Kenya Meteorological Department

LULUCF Land use and land use change & Forestry

MAM March April May

OND October November December

RH Relative Humidity

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 vi

Acknowledgements
I would like to express my appreciation to the Ministry of Environment and
Forestry for the good leadership that has enabled this work to be carried out.

I would also like to thank the Climate Services and Forecasting branches of
Kenya Meteorological Department, for generating this report under the
direction of Dr. David Gikungu, Deputy Director Climate Services; Mr. David
Adegu, Assistant Director Climate Services; and Mr. Benard Chanzu, Deputy
Director Forecasting Services. Special thanks goes to Ms. Patricia Nying’uro,
Principal Meteorologist Climate Services, Mr. Chris Kiptum, Principal
Meteorologist Forecasting Services and Mr. Zacharia Mwai Principal
Meteorologist Hydrometeorological services for compiling this report.

Director
Kenya Meteorological Department

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 vii

 Foreword
Climate Change is unequivocal and its impacts on regions
and countries is clearly being felt by all communities. From
impacts such as shifts in the onset of seasonal rainfall to
increased intensity of short-lived storms, it is undeniable
critical role in the socio-economic sectors of any country.
The adverse effects of extreme weather and climate have
often resulted in loss of lives and livelihoods as well as
damage to property and the environment. Timely
dissemination of weather and climate ensures key sectors of
the economy such as health, agriculture, energy, transport,
water and disaster risk management are well informed, thus
cushioning the public against climate related adverse
effects.

The Meteorological Department has the mandate to provide

timely and accurate information to cushion against the
effects of these changes. The Department also has the
mandate to monitor and document weather and climate data
for research purposes as well as to understand how climate
and weather systems evolve. It is with this in mind that this
report is produced. This document is an important resource
for stakeholders and researchers.

On behalf of the Government of Kenya, it is a privilege and

a great honour for me to present Kenya’s State of Climate
Report for the year 2020 to the people of Kenya and the
World Meteorological Organization. This report represents
the commitment of the Government of Kenya and its people
to address global warming as well as a climate variability
and change. With this report, Kenya takes an important step
towards meeting our national and international obligations
and ensuring that weather and climate are mainstreamed
into the country’s policies and decision-making processes,
activities, and investment plans.

It is my hope that this document will provide adequate

information for various stakeholders and researchers in
their work. It is also my hope that Kenya Meteorological
Department will continue to uphold the high visibility profile
it has gained in recent years and continue providing more
accurate and timely weather forecasts and advisories to
inform planning and decision-making for the benefit of all
sectors of our economy.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 viii

 Preface
Climate variability and climate change present many risks to
populations the world over and more so in developing
countries such as Kenya, because of limited adaptation
capacity. The impacts of climate change, whose increasing
frequency is also notable, include heavier than usual rainfall,
leading to floods or drier than normal conditions leading to
severe droughts consequently affecting human activities.
Observed extreme events during the year included flash floods,
floods, rising lake levels and strong winds.

This report on the state of the climate in the year 2020 shows
that several stations within the country recorded maximum
temperature values exceeding their respective long-term
means. Analysis indicates that the minimum temperatures
recorded in most stations were also higher than the long-term
means. The average annual temperature for the country was
higher by just under 1oC.

The year was characterized by enhanced rainfall during the

Long rains season (MAM 2020) and depressed rainfall in the
Short-rains season (OND 2020). Further, the year had a wetter
than normal January and February owing to the strong
positive Indian Ocean Dipole index at the time. Compared to
the long-term average, the 2020 rainfall was higher for most of
the year and mainly during the March-April-May season.

The Department endeavoured to provide advisories and early

warnings in keeping with its mandate. Observed impacts of
adverse weather included loss of lives, property, livelihoods,
destruction of infrastructure (including those submerged or
marooned as a result of rising Rift Valley lake levels) and even
capsizing of some vessels.

Emerging areas of interest and research by the Department

include, among others, the determination of the possible
influence of weather parameters on the COVID-19 pandemic.

Stella Aura MBS

Director, Kenya Meteorological Department

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 ix

Chapter 1: Introduction
The climate of Kenya is complex in time and space. The region, like many other
parts of the tropics, is prone to extreme climatic episodes such as frequent
floods and recurring droughts (Muhindi et al 2001). Kenya’s weather and
climate are changing in response to global warming that is currently being
experienced world-wide (IPCC, 2013). In response to this, proper adaptation
and mitigation measures should be put in place to cushion the population
against the current and future negative impacts of climate change. Kenya is
located between latitude 5o North and 5o South with the equator almost
dividing it into halves, and between longitudes 34o and 42o east. The total area
is about 569,137 km2. Annual rainfall follows a bimodal seasonal pattern with
rains, commonly referred to as the “long rains” season occurring in March,
April and May (MAM) and the “short rains” season, which occurs in October,
November and December (OND). There exists another season from June to
August (JJA) over the coastal region and the Highlands west of the Rift Valley.
The long rains season is crucial to the agricultural production of the country
which is key to Kenya's economy, contributing 26% of the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) and another 27% of GDP indirectly through linkages with other
sectors. The sector employs more than 40 per cent of the total population and
more than 70 per cent of Kenya's rural population (ASTGS, 2019).
Consequently, the MAM rainfall forecast, and its subsequent performance are
of great significance to the agricultural sector as well as to the overall
performance of the economy. The main driver of weather in Kenya is the annual
north and south migration of the sun across the equator. This migration
influences the position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (Muhindi
et al 2001). Figure 1 shows the climatological zones of the country.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 1

 Figure 1: Rainfall Climatological Zones of Kenya

The months of June to August are characterized by cooler temperatures while

the highest temperatures are typically experienced during the month of March.

The wind patterns in Kenya are such that the months of May, June, July and
August are also characterised by moderate to strong southerly winds especially
over the eastern and northern parts of the country. The rest of the year
experiences relatively calm wind regimes, bringing in moisture or dry air
relative to the season.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 2

Chapter 2: Observed Patterns of key Climatic Parameters during 2020
Solar Radiation
Incoming solar or shortwave radiation is an integral part of the surface energy
balance and can often be the largest energy source at the earth’s surface. The
amount of energy available at the surface plays a central role in determining
the partitioning among sensible, latent, and conductive energy fluxes at the
surface. Similarly, the hydrologic budget is heavily influenced by solar
radiation as evaporation is governed by net radiation (Heck, 2020)

Various stations in the country record solar radiation data even though most
records are either incomplete or have large gaps. Figure 2 shows the variation
of yearly radiation at various stations.

Mj/m2

Figure 2: Mean annual radiation for select stations

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 3

Temperature
Several stations recorded maximum temperature values exceeding their
respective long-term means. These include Marsabit, Mandera, Kisii, Nakuru
and Mombasa as can be seen in Figures 3 and 4.

oC

Figure 3: Maximum temperature vs LTM

Figure 4: Maximum temperature anomalies

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 4

The minimum temperatures observed over most stations in 2020 were higher
than the long-term means. This is consistent with the global observation that
identifies the year 2020 as one of the hottest years on record. The minimum
temperatures and anomalies are respectively illustrated in Figure 5 and
Figure 6.

oC

Figure 5: Minimum temperature observed vs long-term mean

Figure 6: Minimum temperature anomalies

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 5

The June to August (JJA) temperatures were generally warmer than average
over most of the country. Analysis of the JJA 2020 air temperatures indicate
that both the minimum (night-time) and maximum (daytime) temperatures
were warmer than average at several stations with generally sunny conditions
dominating. Minimum temperatures exhibited a higher variation from the
normal as shown in Figure 7. However, the daytime temperatures in the
Central highlands and Nairobi area occasionally fell below 20°C.

Figure 7:2020 JJA minimum temperature vs LTM

Rainfall Performance in 2020

The year was characterized by enhanced rainfall during the Long-rains season
(MAM 2020) and depressed rainfall in the Short-rains season (OND 2020).
Further, the year had a wetter than normal January and February owing to the
strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole index at that time.

January 2020

An analysis of rainfall for January 2020 indicates that the performance of

rainfall was significantly above the long-term mean. Most meteorological
stations recorded rainfall that was above 200% of their January-long term
averages. However, a few stations over the eastern zone (Voi, Mandera and
Wajir) recorded below normal rainfall at 66%, 56.2% and 33.5% respectively.
The month was characterized by severe storms in different parts of the country.
For instance, Kabete recorded 92.5mm on 12th January. On the same day,
Wilson Airport reported 91.3mm and Nyahururu 70.0mm. On 14th and 16th
January, Ngong reported 57.8mm and Narok 63.4mm respectively. On 25th,
27th and 28th January, Voi Meteorological Station reported 59.7mm, followed

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 6

by Kisii with 67.6mm and Matungu with 53.0mm respectively. On 29th January
Kitale reported 56.0mm, Eldoret Kapsoya 68.1mm and Eldoret Airport
72.7mm. Dagoretti Corner station recorded the highest monthly rainfall of
242.9.0mm followed by Wilson Airport which recorded 220.1mm. Figure 8
shows the total rainfall amount recorded in January (Blue bars) in comparison
with the January LTMs (Red bars).

Figure 8: January 2020 Rainfall performance

February 2020

In February 2020, several parts of the country received enhanced rainfall in

comparison to the Long Term Means (LTMs) for the respective periods. An
analysis of rainfall for February 2020 indicates that the performance of rainfall
was above the long-term mean over several parts of the country. Several
meteorological stations recorded rainfall that was above 125% of their February
long term means. Makindu Meteorological Station recorded 296.1% of its
monthly LTM. Other stations that recorded more than 125% are Embu,
Laikipia, Nyahururu, Meru, JKIA, Thika, Garissa, Nyeri, Machakos, Marsabit
and Kericho. Narok, Kakamega, Msabaha, Lamu, Malindi and Moyale recorded
below normal rainfall. Kericho station recorded the highest monthly total
rainfall of 109.7mm which is 125.5% of its February Long Term Mean.

The beginning of the month was characterized by a few isolated storms in

different parts of the country. For instance, JKIA recorded 41.5mm on 1st
February. On the same day, Nyahururu reported 35.6mm, Makindu 29.5mm,
Eldoret Airport 29.3mm while Kabete had 23.0mm. Moreover, Kangema
reported 48.2mm on 3rd February. Generally sunny and dry weather conditions

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 7

prevailed over North-western and North-eastern Kenya where most stations
recorded between 0 and 5mm of rainfall. Wajir and Mandera meteorological
stations received no rainfall during the month. Figure 9 shows the total
rainfall amount recorded in February 2020 (Green bars) in comparison with
the February LTMs (Blue bars).

Figure 9: Total rainfall February in comparison to February LTMs

March-April-May 2020 Rainfall Forecast and Performance

An assessment of the rainfall recorded during MAM 2020 indicates that the
rainfall performance was far above normal over most parts of the country.
Several meteorological stations in the country recorded rainfall that was more
than 75% of their seasonal Long-Term Means (LTMs) for the MAM season.

The most enhanced rainfall was recorded over the Northwest, the Highlands
West and East of the Rift Valley, the Northeast and the South-eastern
Lowlands. Stations that surpassed their seasonal LTMs include Lodwar
(259.9%), Eldoret (207.6%), Narok (185.8%), Nakuru (175.7%), Machakos
(172.0%), Nyeri (165.7%) and Meru (164.8%). Kisii Meteorological Station
recorded the highest seasonal rainfall total of 878.2mm. The lowest seasonal
totals were recorded at Voi 185.0mm and Wajir Meteorological Stations
79.4mm, respectively.

Figure 10 shows the amount of rainfall recorded during the MAM 2020 season
(blue bars) as compared to the MAM seasonal LTMs (red bars). Figure 11

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 8

shows the MAM 2020 seasonal rainfall performance as a percentage of the
LTMs.

Figure 10: MAM 2020 station rainfall values versus long-term means

Figure 11: MAM 2020 seasonal rainfall performance as a percentage of the LTMs

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 9

June to August 2020 (JJA 2020) Performance

Several parts of the country experienced significant rainfall during the June-
July-August (JJA) period. Near-average to above average rainfall was recorded
over several parts of Western, Central, Northwestern Kenya as well as parts of
the Coastal region. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions were observed over
the Central Highlands and Nairobi area during the season.

Several stations in Western, Central Rift Valley, Lake Basin and the Coastal
regions recorded significant amounts of rainfall during the season. The rainfall
was near-average to above-average (enhanced) in several stations as compared
to the JJA LTMs. Kitale recorded the highest amount of 723.8mm (187.4
percent) compared to its LTM of 386.2mm. Other stations that recorded above
200mm include Eldoret– 587.1mm, Kakamega – 517.0mm, Nyahururu - 470.0,
Kericho – 468.3mm, Kisii -408.0mm, Nakuru – 405.1mm, Msabaha –
394.5mm, Kisumu – 305.7mm, Malindi - 304.6mm and Lamu – 225.4mm.
Nyeri, Laikipia, Mombasa, Mtwapa, Dagoretti, Wilson Airport stations recorded
between 100 and 200mm while the rest of the stations recorded less than
100mm as seen in Figure 13. Figure 14 shows the JJA 2020 Rainfall Totals (in
green bars) comparison to JJA LTMs (in red bars).

Generally sunny and dry weather conditions were recorded in the North-
eastern, South-eastern and parts of Central Kenya. Most stations in these
regions recorded less than 100mm during the three-months period. Some
stations like Machakos, Voi, Garissa, Wajir, Makindu and Mandera recorded
less than 20mm throughout the period. No rainfall was recorded at Mandera
Meteorological station for the entire season.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 10

Figure 12:JJA rainfall as percentage of LTM

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 11

Figure 13:JJA Rainfall totals

Figure 14: Comparison of June to August rainfall to LTMs

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 12

October to December Short rains season performance.

The October to December 2020 analysis indicates that depressed rainfall was
recorded over several parts of the country. The start of the seasonal rains
(onset) was also delayed over most places apart from the Highlands West of the
Rift Valley, North-western as well as the Lake Victoria Basin region where
rainfall continued from September 2020 as had been predicted. The rainfall
distribution both in time and space was poor throughout the country.

The seasonal rainfall analysis shows that depressed rainfall was recorded in
North-western, North-eastern, and South-eastern parts of central Kenya
including Nairobi as well as the Coastal region. Several stations recorded below
100% of their LTM for the season. Kisumu meteorological station recorded
183.2% of its seasonal LTM of 328.5mm. Other stations that recorded more
than 125% of their LTMs include Lodwar (173%), Kisii (151.8%), Voi (129.1%)
and Marsabit (126.4%).

The highest seasonal total rainfall amount of 760.3mm was recorded at Kisii
Meteorological station. Other stations that recorded significant amounts of
rainfall are Meru (633.5mm), Kisumu (602.0mm), Embu (599.1mm), Kericho
(415.9mm), Kakamega (416.9mm), Voi (373.5mm), Thika (360.4mm), Marsabit
(347.6mm) and Nyeri (316.4mm). The other stations recorded between 100-
300mm with the exception of Wajir, Lodwar, Garissa, Lamu and Mandera.

Figure 15 shows the OND 2020 rainfall performance (%) while Figure 16
shows total rainfall amount recorded in OND 2020 (Blue bars) in comparison
to the OND LTMs (Red bars)

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 13

Figure 15: October-December 2020 Seasonal Rainfall Performance (%) against OND
LTM

Figure 3b: October-December 2020 Rainfall

Performance
800.0 against October - December LTM
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
EMBU

KISUMU

LAMU

MACHAKOS
MAKINDU

MARSABIT

NAKURU

WAJIR
DAGORETTI

KERICHO
KISII

KITALE
LAIKIPIA

MALINDI

MOMBASA

MSABAHA

NYAHURURU
NYERI
JKIA

MANDERA
GARISSA

KAKAMEGA

MOI AIR-BASE

MOYALE

MTWAPA

NAROK

THIKA
VOI
ELDORET

LODWAR

MERU

WILSON

OND-TOT OND-LTM

Figure 16: October-December 2020 Seasonal Rainfall Totals against OND LTM

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 14

Annual Rainfall performance in 2020
Figures 17 to 19 highlight the annual rainfall performance in the country. It
is evident that the rainfall received over most parts of the country exceeded the
annual long-term means.

From analysis in the previous sections the long rains season contributed the
most to the exceedance of the long-term mean during this year.

Figure 17: October, November and December (OND) 2020-rainfall performance

against LTMs

Figure 18: Bar graph of 2020 station values against their LTMs

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 15

Figure 19: 2020 annual rainfall performance as a percentage of annual LTM

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 16

Chapter 3: Observed Changes of Climate Pattern for 2020 (Current year
minus Long-term mean

Precipitation including Trends

January 2020 was uncharacteristically wet throughout the country, with total
values exceeding the long-term mean by up to 2500mm. February rainfall was
almost similar to the long-term mean values. Thereafter, the Long Rains season
of March to May was quite wet with the total country values exceeding the LTM
values by up to 2000mm. The values recorded for the rest of the year were close
to the LTM values. December had less rainfall by up to >1000mm. May and
November had less than normal rainfall for the country by up to about
approximately -400mm. Figures 20 and 21 illustrate the observed variation
during the year in comparison to the LTM.

Figure 20: Comparison of 2020 total rainfall with the long-term mean.

Figure 21: Total rainfall minus the long-term mean total

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 17

Temperature (Mean, Maximum and Minimum) including Trends
Temperature values recorded during 2020 were higher than the average
temperature for the 1981 to 2012 period (which was used as base period). The
highest deviation was by 1oC during August 2020 while the lowest was about
0.35oC in April. It is quite noteworthy that the cold season for Kenya (June to
August) had the greatest deviation from normal compared to the other months
of the year. Figures 22 and 23 illustrate these variations.

oC

Figure 22: Comparison of 2020 average temperature with the LTM (1981 – 2010)

oC

Figure 23: Average country temperatures minus the LTM (1981 – 2010)

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 18

Chapter 4: Observed Climate Drivers
During the month of April, 2020, equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
over western Pacific were neutral tending to warmer than average conditions
while neutral to below average SSTs dominated eastern Pacific oceans. Neutral
to warmer than average SSTs dominated the Western, Central and Eastern
Indian Ocean. This pattern presented a neutral phase of the Indian Ocean
Dipole (IOD). These temperature patterns were conducive for rainfall over the
Eastern sector of Kenya. The zonal arm of the rain-bearing Inter-Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was mainly diffuse over the region. The rainfall
received from mid-April was mainly influenced by the 2nd phase of the
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation led to generally improved
rainfall over most parts of the country.

During the season of June to August, the equatorial SSTs were above average
across the western Pacific Ocean, the western Atlantic Ocean, and the western
and central Indian Ocean. The SSTs were, however, near to below average in
the east-central and central Pacific Ocean. The tropical atmospheric circulation
was therefore consistent with ENSO-neutral. The Mascarene region was
characterized by strong to moderate pressures which led to significant strong
southerly winds over the eastern sector. Pressures over the Arabian region were
generally weak for most of the month, creating a northward pressure gradient
force. The Meridional (North-South) arm of the ITCZ was mainly over the
central parts of Africa, Uganda and parts of western Kenya while the zonal arm
was mainly situated in Ethiopia and South Sudan.

The poor rainfall performance during OND 2020 was mainly as a result of the
La Nina conditions owing to the prevailing cooler than average SSTs in the
central and eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the warmer than average
SSTs in the western Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Indian Ocean dipole largely
remained neutral during the season.

During the month of November 2020, below average SSTs were observed from
the western central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (the Niño areas) while
above average SSTs prevailed over western equatorial Pacific Ocean. The
warmer than average SSTs that were observed over the equatorial Indian Ocean
constituting a neutral IOD led to occasional heavy rainfall.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 19

Chapter 5: Extreme events in 2020
Drought
According to reports by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA)
due to the below normal rainfall during the OND season some counties had
drought conditions with trends indicating worsening conditions. By October
2020 Garissa, Mandera and Wajir counties were in the alert level of drought
status. Attributed to the drought were reports of acute malnutrition across the
Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) counties. The food security situation in the
ASAL counties was reportedly at one of the lowest levels in the last 15 years
(UNOCHA, 20th October 2020)

Windstorms
A case of strong winds was reported during the month of July 2020 as a result
of the pressure gradients described in Chapter 4. The areas affected were in
the North-eastern parts of the country. Table 1 shows the recorded winds in
knots

Table 1: Recorded windstorm events in July 2020

Date Region Station Winds

17/7/2020 Marsabit 30knts

Eastern Wajir 25kts

Garissa 25kts

Reports received through feedback mechanisms from marine industry, media

and Indian Ocean users, indicate that there were significant large waves
associated with the strong winds. This was confirmed by County Directors of
Meteorological services from Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties.

Other extreme events relevant to the country

Desert locust invasion into the country spilled over from 2019 into 2020, with
large swarms spreading across 14 Kenyan counties and gradually invading
neighbouring countries - influenced by both wind and rainfall occurrences
within the region.

Flood events
Several flash floods and flooding events were recorded throughout the year.
Tables 2 & 3 provide details of these flooding events.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 20

Table 2: Heavy rainfall events during the long rains season (MAM)

OBS start
time (to OBS end
nearest h time (to observations (list all Issued
in UTC) nearest h) reports in region) Event Message

Warning
13/04/2020 13/04/2020 Ppt Butere 56.2mm Flash flood issued before
1300UTC 2300UTC event

14/04/2020 14/04/2020 Minor Warning

Ppt:Kabarak 126.0mm
1400UTC 1400UTC flash flood issued

16/04/2020 16/04/2020 No Warning

Ppt: Ngong 65.1mm Flooding
1300UTC 1300UTC issued

17/04/2020 18/04/2020 Ppt: Karurumo No Warning

Flash flood
1500UTC 0400UTC 74.1mm issued

Ppt: Embu 61.8

mm,Wilson 92.5, Warning
Kabete Flash flood issued before
18/04/2020 18/04/2020 61.3mm,Kangema event
1300UTC 2300UTC 50.0mm

Ppt: Embu Warning

Minor
19/04/2020 20/04/2020 62.1mm,Marsabit issued but
flash flood
2000UTC 0400UTC 82.4mm misplaced

Ppt: Meru 57.5mm, Warning

20/04/2020 21/04/2020 Machakos 65.7mm Flash flood issued before
0800UTC 0400UTC Karurumo 76.5mm event start

Ppt: Meru 57.5mm, Warning

20/04/2020 20/04/2020 Machakos 65.7mm, Flash flood issued before
1300UTC 2000UTC Karurumo 76.5 mm event started

Ppt :Mandera 85.6mm,

Kitui 79.8mm, Warning
Karurumo 68.0 mm, Flash flood issued before
21/04/2020 22/04/2020 Wundanyi 92.0mm, event started
1200UTC 0600UTC Shigaro 70.0mm

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 21

 Ppt: Garissa
60.2mm,Nyeri
52.0mm, Kangema
Warning
93.0mm, Ngerenyi
Flash flood issued before
84.0mm, Karurumo
event start
50.5mm,kitui
22/04/2020 23/04/2020 67.9mm, wilson
1100UTC 0600UTC 58.0mm

Warning
23/04/2020 23/04/2020 Ppt:Moyale 42.8mm Flash flood issued before
1300UTC 2200UTC event start

Ppt:Kabete Warning
24/04/2020 24/04/2020 55.3mm,Eldoret Flash flood issued before
0500UTC 0600UTC Airport 51.6mm event start

Warning
25/04/2020 26/04/2020 Ppt:Butere 54.7mm Flash flood issued before
1700UTC 0400UTC event start

Warning
Ppt:Embu 62.4mm,
26/04/2020 27/04/2020 Flash flood issued before
Tutho 51.1mm
1900UTC 0000UTC event start

Ppt:Meru Warning
28/04/2020 29/03/2020 68.3mm,Matungu Flash flood issued before
1200UTC 0400UTC 57.4mm event start

Table 3: Heavy rainfall events during the Short rains season (OND)

Date Region Station Amount in 24 hrs

27/11/2020 Eastern Kitui 123.8mm

Central Kabete 46.2mm

28/11/2020 Southeastern Marungu 50.0mm

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 22

Chapter 6: Socio-economic Impacts of extreme events in various
sectors of the economy
Agriculture and Food Security
The food security situation in Kenya was negatively impacted by the locust
invasion of 2019 that spilt into 2020. Floods exacerbated this already dire
situation. In some regions such as Baringo County, maize farms were flooded,
and crops were lost to the floodwaters.

In terms of positive impacts, Maize and beans did well in most counties except
Machakos while horticultural products performed well due to good rains. green
grams and Sorghum production was very good especially in Kitui county during
the March to May season. Reports indicated to that milk production was good
since there was good pasture and good animal body condition.

There were some negative impacts experienced in the agricultural sector as

well. for tea farmers, there was over-production that led to reduction of prices.
Tomatoes were negatively affected by excess rains including diseases like
blight, while transport of produce was hampered due to infrastructure damage
from excess rains. Excess rains affected fishing with beaches being flooded.
And fish landing sites were also affected by the flooding during MAM 2020.
There was flooding of farms in Garissa which affected farm inputs and
machinery. Parts of River Tana changed course hence leaving some farms
without water for irrigation. There was poor honey production since nectar
producing flowers were washed away. According to the County Director of
Meteorology Kitui county, Dr. Mbithi, crops had too much water which in some
cases is not common and they grew taller than usual while compromising the
bearing of fruit. Potatoes in Nyandarua did not perform well due to excess
rainfall during the MAM season. During OND 2020 there was migration of bee
colonies due to dry conditions to relatively wetter areas, this in recent years
may impact the phenology of plants and animals as climate changes. Tea
farmers also suffered from hailstorms which destroyed their crops.

Health
During the short rains season approximately 300 human lives were lost due to
flooding and >160,000 households (over 800,000 people) were affected across
the country.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 23

Figure 24: Residents piled into boats with whatever they could rescue, including animals, to
escape the floodwaters in Buyuku. Image :/COURTESY

Flooding was reported in more than three quarters of Kenya’s counties (36 out
of 47), with landslides reported in the Rift Valley and the central and coastal
regions, according to the Government’s National Disaster Operations Centre
(NDOC).

Seven Tanzanian sailors were rescued off Kilifi, after encountering the rough
seas due to strong winds. The seven had left Tanga for Pemba on a vessel
named Haina Hollo before their boat capsized, their boat was pushed by strong
winds into Kenyan waters, struck a reef and capsized. The vessel was ferrying
700 eucalyptus logs.

Figure 25: A Tanzanian cargo boat capsized due to high seas caused by strong
winds.

Image: /COURTESY
During the short rains season heavy rainfall recorded over mainly parts of
North-western Kenya landslides were recorded in West Pokot

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 24

Early Warning/Disaster Risk Reduction
The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) worked tirelessly throughout the
year and despite the added challenges brought on by the global Covid19
pandemic to provide early warning for all these expected severe weather events.
Partners for disaster reduction included but are not limited to;

 Kenya Red Cross and Red Crescent Society

 National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC)
 Ministry of Water
 KENGEN

Transportation
Roads and bridges were damaged as a result of the floods witnessed during
the short rains season. These had cascading effects on other sectors such as
agriculture in delaying or even hampering transport of products. Counties
affected included West Pokot, Narok, and Homa Bay

Water & Energy

The water and energy sector are in this report discussed together. During 2020
there were both positive and negative impacts of the weather experienced.
Major positive impacts include increase of water levels in the dams in western
Kenya which contributed to high hydro-power output by the electricity
generation companies. There was also reliable water supply due to favourable
recharge of rivers and lakes. This is especially in regions where water
infrastructure was not damaged. One noteworthy positive impact was also that
there was reduced water conflicts in most areas.
Negative impacts included the floods documented here; flash floods in ASALs
as well as water contamination due to flooding and subsequent water
infrastructure destruction. Over the eastern sector water related conflicts
remained. Also, there were cases of power interruptions associated with
destruction of power transmission lines/infrastructure.

Infrastructure
There were reports from the media showing the negative impacts of the strong
winds episode and large waves that caused destruction of property and socio-
economic activities.

A telecommunication mast which was being constructed was destroyed by

strong winds in Kwale County as reported by Mr Dominic Mbindyo, Kwale
County Director of Meteorological services. Roads and bridges were flooded and
submerged and, in some cases, partially washed away as a result of the heavy
rains. Additional impacts are discussed in the Transport sector section.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 25

Chapter 7: Projected Climate patterns for 2021 and likely socio-economic
impacts
The chances of La Niña are greater than 60% through March-May 2021, with
a 60% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2021. The
situation will be monitored as it progresses to see what effects it may have for
the short rains season from October.

Figure 26: ENSO projection (Source: IRI)

Currently La Niña conditions are prevailing and equatorial sea surface

temperatures (SSTs) are below average from the west-central to eastern Pacific
Ocean. The tropical atmospheric circulation is consistent with La Niña. There
is a ~60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the
Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 (April-June).

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also a strong driver for Kenyan weather.
Projections carried out in February portrayed the IOD index as neutral and
with a tendency to remain neutral through to May 2021.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 26

Chapter 8: Summaries of sectoral applications
Agrometeorological Report for Year 2020
According to the Agrometeorological report 2020, maize, beans and tea
grown in western Kenya were impacted by the rainfall seasons. Maize yields
ranged from near normal to above normal while beans yield ranged from below
normal in some counties due to excess rainfall at the beginning of the season
to above normal in others. Hailstorms and isolated landslides affected the crop
growing season.

In Central Kenya, where maize, potatoes, peas and beans are grown, there was
a false onset of the MAM rains and a depressed season. In April there was
excess rainfall leading to yields ranging from below normal to near normal.

Over South-eastern and Coastal Kenya, maize and beans are the main crops
grown; yields were poor due to depressed rain during the short rains season.

Western Kenya Counties

Summary

Table 4: Summary of Agrometeorological impacts in Western Kenya

Agromet Observed Impacts

center
KAKAMEGA MAM  Rains were above normal resulting to above normal
2020 maize harvest.
 But the excess rains affected beans. Maize was
slightly affected by hailstones
OND  Rains were near normal resulting in near normal yield
2020 for maize.
 Excess rains in the first decade of October affected
beans resulting to below normal yield. Maize was also
slightly affected by hailstones
KITALE MAM  Rains were above normal resulting to above normal
2020 maize harvest. But the excess rains affected beans.
 Maize was also slightly affected by hailstones.
OND  No major planting is usually done in this season
2020
KERICHO MAM  Rains were above normal and this resulted in above
2020 normal yields for maize and beans.
 There were a few but isolated landslides in sloping
areas.
OND  Rains were near normal but was enough for maize
2020 and beans resulting in above normal yields.
 Tea was however affected by hailstones
KISII MAM  The rains were above normal resulting in above
2020 normal maize yields.
 Beans were affected by excess rains resulting in near
normal yields.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 27

  Both crops were also affected hailstones
OND  The rains were above normal resulting in above
2020 normal maize yields.
 Beans were affected by excess rains resulting in near
normal yields. Both crops were also affected
hailstones.

KAKAMEGA

Table 5: Kakamega MAM & OND impacts review

KAKAMEGA MAM 2020

M A M total MAM
Rain (mm) 260.2 333.3 238 831.2
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
date (days) d effects
Maize 25-2-2020 5 months ABN Hailstones

Beans 25-2-2020 60-90 NN excess rain

KAKAMEGA OND 2020

O N D total OND
Rain
222.2 86.3 77.8 386.3
(mm)
planting growing period yiel
climate hazards/adverse effects
date (days) d
Maize 30-9-2020 4 months NN hailstones
Excess rain in the 1st decade of October
Beans 30-9-2020 60-90 BN
affected beans

Kitale

Table 6: Kitale MAM & OND impacts review

KITALE MAM 2020

M A M total MAM
Rain (mm) 323.9 188.1 207 718.6
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
Crop
date (days) d effects
Maize 28-3-2020 6 - 7 months ABN Hailstones
Beans 28-3-2020 60-90 NN excess rain
KITALE OND 2020
O N D total OND
Rain
286.3
(mm) 146.6 130.6 9.1
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
date (days) d effects
Maize Only one season in Kitale nil
Beans no major planting nil

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 28

Kericho

Table 7: Kericho MAM & OND impacts review

KERICHO MAM 2020

M A M total MAM
Rain (mm) 268.5 360.8 252 881.1
growing period climate hazards/adverse
planting date yield
(days) effects
Maize Feb 5 months ABN isolated landslides
Beans feb 60-90 ABN isolated landslides
Perennial
Tea N/A ABN Nil
crop
KERICHO OND 2020
O N D total OND
Rain (mm) 196.61 147.25 70 413.87
planting growing period climate hazards/adverse
yield
date (days) effects
Maize sept 4 months ABN nil
Beans sept 60-90 ABN nil
tea N/A N/A NN hailstones

Kisii

Table 8: Kisii MAM & OND impacts review

KISII MAM 2020

M A M total MAM
Rain (mm) 385.4 232.3 324 942
planting harvesting yiel climate hazards/adverse
date date d effects
august ( 5 slight impact from
Maize 9/3/2020
months) ABN hailstones
May ( 3
Beans 9/3/2020
months) NN hailstones/excess rains
KISII OND 2020
O N D total OND
Rain
329.4 306.2 159 794.8
(mm)
planting yiel climate hazards/adverse
date harvesting date d effects
Maize 1/9/2020 7-Feb-21 ABN slight impact from hailstones
Beans 1/9/2020 7-Dec NN hailstones/excess rains

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 29

Central Kenya Counties

Summary

Table 9: Summary of Agrometeorological impacts in Central Kenya

Agromet Observed Impacts

centre
MAM  Rains were near normal and prolonged resulting
2020 in above normal yields for maize and peas.
 Potatoes were however negatively affected by the
Nyahururu
excess rains resulting to below normal yields.
OND  Rains were below normal but no major planting is
2020 usually done in this season.
MAM  Rains were near normal and excess rains
2020 especially in the 3rd decade of April resulted in
near normal yields for maize and below normal
Nyeri
harvest for beans.
OND  Rains were depressed and this resulted in below
2020 normal yields for maize and beans
MAM  Rains were above normal but there was a false
2020 start in March which resulted in near normal
yields for maize and beans
Embu
OND  Rains were above normal but there was an early
2020 cessation that resulted in below normal yields for
maize and near normal yields for beans
MAM  Rains were above normal but the distribution was
2020 poor resulting in near normal yields for maize.
There was however excess rains in the 2nd and 3rd
week of April affecting beans yields that were
Meru
below normal
OND  Rains were above normal but the distribution was
2020 poor resulting in near normal yields for maize and
beans

Nyahururu

Table 10: Nyahururu MAM & OND impacts review

NYAHURURU MAM 2020
M A M total MAM
Rain (mm) 157.9 178.8 77.7 414.4
climate
planting
Crop Harvesting yield hazards/adverse
date
effects
Sept (green) and Jan
Maize March
(dry) ABN Nil
Potatoes March Jun-July BN Excess rain
July (green) and
Peas March
Aug/Sept (dry) ABN

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 30

 NYAHURURU OND 2020
O N D total OND
Rain
93.4 56.2 37 186.6
(mm)
climate
planting growing period
Crop yield hazards/adverse
date (days)
effects
No Major planting usually done
Nyeri

Table 11: Nyeri MAM & OND impacts review

NYERI MAM 2020

M A M total MAM
Rain (mm 123.61 436.63 213 773.46
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
date (days) d effects
Maize 2/4/2020 120 NN
Excess rain in 3rd Decade
Beans 2/4/2020 80 days
BN of April
NYERI OND 202O
O N D total OND
Rain
317.7
(mm) 107.1 128.4 82.2
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
date (days) d effects
Maize 20/10/2020 120 BN Depressed rains
Beans 20/10/2020 80 days BN Depressed rains
Embu

Table 12: Embu MAM & OND impacts review

EMBU MAM 2020

M A M total MAM
Rain 195.6 351.1 229 776.1
(mm)
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
date (days) d effects
Maize 15-3-2020 120 NN false onset
Beans 15-3-2020 90 NN false onset
EMBU OND 2020
O N D total OND
Rain 274.4 282.7 92. 649.9
(mm) 8
Crop planting date growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
(days) d effects
Maize 15-10-2020 120 BN early cessation
Beans 15-10-2020 90 NN nil

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 31

Meru

Table 13: Meru MAM & OND impacts review

MERU MAM 2020

M A M total MAM
Rain (mm) 133.12 433.3 187 753.42
planting growing period yield climate hazards/adverse
date (days) effects
Maize 18/3/2020 90 NN Poor distribution
Beans 18/3/2020 45 BN excess rains in 2nd to 3rd
Decade of April
MERU OND 2020
O N D total OND
Rain 123.21 466.41 53.6 643.22
(mm)
planting date growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
(days) d effects
Maize 20/10/2020 60 NN nil
Beans 20/10/2020 40 NN nil

Coastal Counties

Summary for year 2020

Table 14: Summary of Agrometeorological impacts in Coastal Kenya

Agromet Observed Impacts

centre
MAM  Rains were above normal and this resulted in above
2020 normal yields for maize and beans
Mtwapa
OND  Rains were depressed resulting in poor yields for
2020 Maize and beans
MAM  Rains were near normal resulting in near yields for
2020 Maize and beans
Msabaha
OND  Rains were depressed resulting in poor yields for
2020 Maize and beans
Mtwapa

Table 15: Mtwapa MAM & OND impacts review

MTWAPA MAM 2020

M A M total MAM
Rain (mm) 81.5 234.91 427 743.02
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
date (days) d effects
Maize 20/3/2020 90
ABN Nil
Beans 3/4/2020 60 ABN Nil

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 32

 MTWAPA OND 2020
O N D total OND
Rain
242.68
(mm) 91.24 97.91 53.5
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
date (days) d effects
Maize 1/11/2020 90 poor drought (depressed rain)

Beans 1/12/2020 60 poor drought (depressed rain)

Msabaha

Table 16: Msabaha MAM & OND impacts review

MSABAHA MAM 2020

M A M total MAM
Rain
335.5
(mm) 41.6 105.3 189
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
date (days) d effects
Maize 20/3/2020 90 NN Nil

Beans 3/4/2020 60 NN Nil

MSABAHA OND 2020
O N D total OND
Rain 30.4 94.8 2.9 128.1
(mm)
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
date (days) d effects
Maize 1/11/2020 90 poo drought (depressed rain)
r
Beans 1/12/2020 60 poo drought (depressed rain)
r

South Eastern Counties

Summary for South eastern Counties

Table 17: Summary of Agrometeorological impacts in South-eastern Kenya

Agromet Observed Impacts

centre
Katumani MAM  Rains were near normal and this resulted in near
2020 normal yields for Maize and above normal yields for
beans
OND  Rains were depressed resulting in below normal
2020 yields for maize and beans

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 33

Katumani

Table 18: Katumani MAM & OND impacts review

KATUMANI MAM 2020

M A M total MAM
Rain (mm 179.02 273.9 7.7 460.62
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
date (days) d effects
Maize early mar end of may NN nil
Beans early mar end of April ABN nil
KATUMANI OND 2020
O N D total OND
Rain
166.34
(mm 22.2 114.74 29.4
planting growing period yiel climate hazards/adverse
date (days) d effects
Maize Early Nov 90 BN depressed rain
Beans Early Nov 60 BN depressed rain

Marine Sector Report

No significant marine weather was noted during the year 2020. However, strong
wind of 30-40Knots and high wave of between 2.5 -3 m were noted. An advisory
was issued on 14th July 2020, Valid 16th to 19th July 2020 for strong winds
and high waves. During that period a small boat capsized, and six fishermen
were rescued in Lamu.

Marine division also monitor earthquake and tsunami activities over the Indian
ocean. On 3 May 2020, a 4.9 magnitude earthquake happened 60km from
Lodwar, Turkana. While in August 12, 2020, an Earthquake of magnitude 6.0
occurred near Kilindoni, Pwani, Tanzania, but did not cause any high waves
over the western Indian ocean. No tsunami warning was issued during the
review period.

Hydro-meteorology
Hydro-meteorological events and impacts in 2020

Heavy rains experienced in the year caused death, flooding, displacement of

people and destruction of infrastructure.
High water levels in the lakes resulted in flooding. Lake Victoria rose to a new
record level.
Landslides and mudslides occasioned by heavy rainfall caused death and
destruction of property. Riverine flooding as well as flash floods caused
disruption of transport and displacement of communities.
Flash floods were also experienced in urban areas due to heavy storms.
Dams and reservoirs were full to capacity in unprecedented levels across the
country.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 34

Chapter 9: Capacity development needs
1. Climate change scenario development training urgently needed
2. Capacity building on downscaling of GPC products also required
3. Support on implementation of climate services as required by WMO is
needed too.
4. There’s some capacity in developing the yearly climate review but
additional capacity building is needed for a more collaborative approach.
5. Tropical cyclone monitoring and forecasting capacity needed.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 35

CONCLUSION
The Kenya Meteorological Department continues to fulfil its mandate of
providing timely and accurate early warning information and services to the
public as well as to government ministries and departments to support
implementation of national strategies for sustainable development.

The food security situation in the country was negatively impacted by the locust
invasion of 2019 that spilled over into 2020. Floods led to landslides in areas
such as West Pokot County, which in turn led to loss of lives and livelihoods.

Temperatures continued to rise through the year and were higher than the
long-term averages. Noteworthy was the minimum temperature rises that were
higher compared to the maximum temperature rises.

Emerging areas of interest and research by the Department include

determination of possible influence of weather parameters on the COVID-19
pandemic.

State of the Climate Kenya 2020 36

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State of the Climate Kenya 2020 37