Surface Temperature Lapse Rates Over Complex Terra

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Surface Temperature Lapse Rates Over Complex Terrain: Lessons from the
Cascade Mountains
Article in Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · July 2010

DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013493
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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. ???, XXXX, DOI:10.1029/,
1 Surface temperature lapse rates over complex

2 terrain: lessons from the Cascade Mountains
Justin R. Minder
3 Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Washington, Seattle,
4 Washington
Philip W. Mote
5 Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Oceanic and
6 Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon
Jessica D. Lundquist
7 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
8 Washington, Seattle, Washington
J. R. Minder, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Box 351640,
Seattle,WA 98195-1640, USA. ([email protected])
D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

X-2 MINDER ET AL.: MOUNTAIN LAPSE RATES
9 Abstract. The typically sparse distribution of weather stations in moun-
10 tainous terrain inadequately resolves temperature variability. Accordingly,
11 high-resolution gridding of climate data (for applications such as hydrolog-
12 ical modeling) often relies on assumptions such as a constant surface tem-
13 perature lapse rate (i.e., decrease of surface temperature with altitude) of
14 6.5◦ C km−1 . Using an example of the Cascade Mountains, we describe the
15 temporal and spatial variability of the surface temperature lapse rate, com-
16 bining data from: (1) COOP stations, (2) nearby radiosonde launches, (3)
17 a temporary dense network of sensors, (4) forecasts from the MM5 regional
18 model, and (5) PRISM geo-statistical analyses. On the windward side of the
19 range, the various data sources reveal annual mean lapse rates of 3.9-5.2◦ C km−1 ,
20 substantially smaller than the often-assumed 6.5◦ C km−1 . The datasets show
21 similar seasonal and diurnal variability, with lapse rates smallest (2.5-3.5◦ C
22 km−1 ) in late-summer minimum temperatures, and largest (6.5-7.5◦ C km−1 )
23 in spring maximum temperatures. Geographic (windward vs. lee side) dif-
24 ferences in lapse rates are found to be substantial. Using a simple runoff model
25 we show the appreciable implications of these results for hydrological mod-
26 eling.

MINDER ET AL.: MOUNTAIN LAPSE RATES X-3
1. Introduction
27 Quantifying the distribution of temperature in complex terrain, especially the relation-
28 ship between temperature and altitude, is essential for distinguishing where precipitation
29 falls as rain or snow, for accurately modeling streamflow and ecosystem distributions, and
30 for understanding decadal trends in snowpack and glacier volume. However, the sparsity of
31 long term surface temperature measurements in mountains, combined with the influences
32 of local factors like cold air pooling and inversions, makes such quantification challenging.
33 Dense networks of sensors with high temporal resolution are required to characterize well
34 the patterns of surface temperature that occur over complex terrain [e.g., Lundquist and
35 Cayan, 2007]. Since such observations are seldom available, empirical relationships be-
36 tween surface temperature and elevation are frequently exploited to aid in interpolating
37 station data to make gridded fields.
38 For gridded analyses, surface temperatures are often assumed to decrease linearly with
39 elevation, according to a temporally constant and spatially uniform lapse rate (decrease
40 in surface temperature with elevation). For instance Maurer et al. [2002] and Hamlet and
41 Lettenmaier [2005] assume lapse rates of 6.5◦ C km−1 and 6.1◦ C km−1 , respectively, to
42 create daily temperature grids for use in hydrological studies. Uniform and/or constant
43 lapse rates have been used in a wide range of other studies, which typically assume lapse
44 rates of 6.0 or 6.5◦ C km−1 [e.g., Prentice et al., 1992; Arnold et al., 2006; Otto-Bliesner
45 et al., 2006; Roe and O’Neal , 2009]. Sometimes authors justify these values as represen-
46 tative of the theoretical pseudo-adiabatic lapse rate [e.g., Hamlet and Lettenmaier , 2005],
47 which can actually vary substantially due to its dependence on temperature and pressure

48 (e.g., from about 3 to 9 ◦ C km−1 for mid-latitude surface conditions). However, much
49 more commonly authors offer no rationale for their use of the 6.0-6.5◦ C km−1 values. The
50 use of these values is probably attributable in part to various sources that cite mean free
51 atmosphere lapse rates in this range [e.g., Wallace and Hobbs, 2006]. The use of mean
52 values may be problematic since they may not be representative of the atmosphere in a
53 particular region in a particular season. Furthermore, using free atmosphere lapse rates
54 for estimating surface conditions implicitly assumes that terrain and surface processes
55 are unimportant in determining surface temperatures, which is only occasionally a good
56 approximation [Pepin and Seidel , 2005]. For instance, in valley bottoms cold air pool-
57 ing and temperature inversions can greatly alter the lapse rate [e.g., Rolland , 2003], and
58 in mountain passes channeled cross-mountain flow can result in large local temperature
59 anomalies [e.g., Steenburgh et al., 1997].
60 A number of observational studies using networks of temperature sensors have revealed
61 that spatially uniform and temporally constant lapse rates of 6-6.5◦ C km−1 are not rep-
62 resentative of actual surface conditions over the Appalachian mountains [Bolstad et al.,
63 1998], the European Alps [Rolland , 2003], the Qinling Mountains of China [Tang and
64 Fang, 2006], the central Rocky Mountains [Blandford et al., 2008], and Arctic glaciers
65 [Gardner et al., 2009]. In all these regions mean surface lapse rates differ appreciably
66 from the often-used 6-6.5◦ C km−1 values. Furthermore, observed surface lapse rates ex-
67 hibit marked: (1) seasonal cycles, with amplitudes exceeding 2◦ C km−1 [Bolstad et al.,
68 1998; Rolland , 2003; Tang and Fang, 2006; Blandford et al., 2008; Gardner et al., 2009];
69 (2) diurnal variability [Bolstad et al., 1998; Rolland , 2003; Tang and Fang, 2006; Bland-

70 ford et al., 2008]; and (3) spatial variability, depending on the aspect of the slope [Tang
71 and Fang, 2006], or location relative to valleys [Bolstad et al., 1998; Rolland , 2003].
72 Several methods for temperature analyses go beyond the assumption of uniform and
73 constant 6.0-6.5◦ C km−1 lapse rates. These approaches include specifying lapse rates
74 that are uniform and constant, but are derived from station observations [e.g., Dodson
75 and Marks, 1997], and specifying lapse rates that are spatially uniform but vary diur-
76 nally according to observations [e.g., Shamir and Georgakakos, 2006]. One of the most
77 sophisticated statistical methods for analyzing mountain temperatures is the Parameter-
78 elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM, Daly et al., 2002, 2008].
79 This method allows for both spatial and temporal variations in lapse rates based on sta-
80 tion observations, and has been used for a variety of modeling [e.g., Elsner et al., 2009]
81 and analysis [e.g., Weiss et al., 2009] studies.
82 It is of utmost importance for societal planning in water resources, hydropower, agricul-
83 ture, ecology, and other areas, to accurately quantify the present and future distribution
84 of temperature over the landscape. This is particularly true in the field of mountain hy-
85 drology where the temperature grids of Maurer et al. [2002] and Hamlet and Lettenmaier
86 [2005] have been used in the western US: to investigate the potential impacts of climate
87 warming on snowpack and flooding [Bales et al., 2006], to identify climatic controls on
88 snowpack trends [Hamlet et al., 2005], and even to diagnose human influences on regional
89 climate [Bonfils et al., 2008]. Moreover, the importance of lapse rates extends far beyond
90 hydrology; models of mountain glaciers [e.g., Otto-Bliesner et al., 2006; Roe and O’Neal ,
91 2009], models of ecosystems [e.g., Prentice et al., 1992], and even geological reconstruc-

92 tions of terrain elevations from millions of years ago [e.g., Rowley and Garzione, 2007]
93 utilize surface temperature lapse rates as important input parameters.
94 Model errors associated with various lapse rate assumptions remain largely unquantified,
95 but may be quite important. For instance, misrepresentation of the height of the 0◦ C
96 isotherm is an error in temperature analyses that can have large consequences. Lundquist
97 et al. [2008] show that each 100 m error in the estimation of the level where snow changes
98 to rain, corresponds to a 5 % error in contributing area for runoff during a storm for the
99 North Fork of the American River Basin in California, and White et al. [2002] show that
100 runoff triples when the melting level rises by 2000 ft (610 m) in 3 of the 4 mountainous
101 California watersheds they examined. Predictions from models of mountain glaciers have
102 also been shown to be very sensitive to the assumed lapse rate [Otto-Bliesner et al., 2006;
103 Gardner et al., 2009].
104 In this paper we examine in detail annual mean and monthly varying lapse rates over
105 the Washington Cascades mountains (Figure 1). The Cascades range in elevation from
106 a few hundred meters to 4392 m MSL atop Mount Rainier. They have a large hydro-
107 logic sensitivity to climate warming [Bales et al., 2006], and have experienced the largest
108 declines in spring snowpack [Mote et al., 2005] and shifts in timing of spring snowmelt
109 [Stewart et al., 2005] in the western US. Previous characterizations of temperature lapse
110 rates in the Cascades have been limited. Dodson and Marks [1997] quantified mean lapse
111 rates over the Cascades, but only as a part of a much larger analysis domain. Rasmussen
112 [2009] examined lapse rates and their seasonality in the northern Cascades, but only used
113 data from a single pair of stations.

114 Our analysis extends beyond the scope of previous studies by using a synthesis of sev-
115 eral observational data sets and a regional weather prediction model, presenting long term
116 mean statistics and also statistics from two recent periods when we collected high reso-
117 lution measurements. Our results from the Cascades may be considered a case study in
118 how various data sets in any region can be used to determine the most reliable lapse rate
119 for hydrological and ecological model simulations. Our findings reveal that the canonical
120 mean lapse rate (6.5◦ C km−1 ) poorly characterizes the Cascade climate, and furthermore,
121 variations in the lapse rate (particularly geographic variations) can be of considerable im-
122 portance to regional hydrology.
2. Data and Methods
2.1. COOP stations
123 We obtained monthly mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax, Tmin)
124 for all National Weather Service Cooperative (COOP) weather stations in Washington
125 Climate Divisions 5 (western Cascades) and 6 (eastern Cascades), a total of 129 sta-
126 tions, from the Western Regional Climate Center (www.wrcc.dri.edu). The distribution
127 of COOP stations appears quite dense (Figure 1), but most stations at middle and high
128 elevations were discontinued by 1980. Although high elevation coverage is limited, we fo-
129 cus on COOP station data because it offers quality controlled data from a stable network
130 over an extended time period. We performed least squares linear regression to derive lapse
131 rates using monthly and annual means of Tmax and Tmin for each station. To compute
132 annual means we required all months be available. For Paradise (at 1650 m on Mount
133 Rainier, Figure 2), data in November 2006 were missing, owing to heavy storm damage.

134 Missing Paradise data were estimated from measurements taken by a collocated iButton
135 sensor (see below) using linear regression.
136 To ensure that our calculation of lapse rates is robust, we investigated the annual mean
137 lapse rates for a range of: (1) periods of record (starting years from 1939 to 1969), (2)
138 thresholds for required number of years of valid station data in a 30-year period (from 14
139 to 30 years), and (3) minimum station elevation used (from 0 to 300 m). In most cases,
140 as long as there were at least 10 stations, any combination of requirements about missing
141 months, period of record, or minimum station elevation used, produced essentially the
142 same annual mean lapse rates (to within 0.2◦ C km−1 ). We chose the period 1949-1968,
143 a minimum elevation of 50 m, and minimum number of valid years of 19 (a combination
144 that produced the same maximum and minimum lapse rate as the average computation
145 for all combinations of choices with at least 10 stations). These stations have a variety of
146 exposures relative to the surrounding terrain and many of the low elevation valley stations
147 are likely to at least occasionally reside in localized cold air pools. Considering sampling
148 uncertainty in the lapse rate regression, the 95% confidence interval on the estimate of
149 the COOP annual mean lapse rates is ± 0.9 and ±1.0 ◦ C km−1 for 1949-1978 maximum
150 and minimum temperatures (±0.9 and ±1.2◦ C km−1 for 2006-2007).
2.2. iButtons
151 We deployed a dense network of Maxim iButton temperature sensors on the south side
152 of Mt Rainier (Figures 1 and 2) for 2006-2007 and in the northern Washington Cascades
153 mountains (Figure 1) for 2007-2008. Before and after deployment all sensors were placed in
154 an ice bath to verify their accuracy of recording 0◦ C and were also compared when taking

155 room temperature measurements to verify consistent performance between sensors. They
156 all performed better than ±0.2◦ C.
157 In the field the iButtons were placed in simple radiation shields made from plastic
158 funnels and were deployed in stands of evergreen trees to provide additional shading
159 from solar radiation. Sensors were hung in trees, as high as possible — from 2 m to
160 8 m above ground level (AGL) — to keep them above the snowpack and near-surface
161 temperature inversions. Our deployment methodology follows Lundquist and Huggett
162 [2008], who show that when deployed in dense stands of trees iButton measurements agree
163 well with reference measurements from more traditional instrumentation. The iButton
164 data were subjected to additional quality control to remove anomalous spikes in recorded
165 temperature associated with brief periods when rays of solar radiation penetrate the forest
166 canopy and strike the sensor; however the seasonal mean measurements were minimally
167 affected by this correction. The height of iButtons above the snow surface varies as a
168 function of the snow depth, which is unknown. This represents a fundamental source of
169 uncertainty in the iButton measurements (and most other temperature measurements in
170 high snowy terrain), particularly if the snow height approaches the sensor height and the
171 sensor is exposed to near-surface temperature inversions. However, we minimized this
172 uncertainty by hanging the sensors high above the expected maximum snow depth.
173 At Mt. Rainier (elevation 2329 m), we installed 12 iButtons in stands of trees on
174 October 1, 2006, along an 8-km transect from the COOP station at Longmire (840 m)
175 to the highest stand of trees at 2100 m (Figure 2). They were hung 2-5 m AGL in
176 trees. On August 30, 2007 we retrieved 10 of the iButtons (one was lost and one was so
177 wind-battered that we were unable to recover data from it). One sensor became snow

X - 10 MINDER ET AL.: MOUNTAIN LAPSE RATES
178 covered from Dec-May, and accordingly its data were omitted from the analysis. iButtons
179 agreed well with COOP instrumentation at the two site where they were collocated in
180 nearby trees: root-mean-squared differences for monthly mean temperatures were 0.9◦ C
181 at Paradise and 0.4◦ C at Longmire, and annual mean differences were less than 0.2◦ C at
182 both sites.
183 In the northern Cascades, we installed 21 iButtons in an approximate east-west transect
184 crossing the crest of the Cascades. They were deployed on September 7-10, 2007, and
185 retrieved August 1, 2008 (Figure 1). They were hung 1.8-7.9 m AGL in dense stands of
186 trees. The horizontal and vertical range of measurement sites was considerably greater
187 than at Mt Rainier: 47 km and from 360 to 2120 m. All data from all sensors were
188 recovered.
189 The iButtons recorded temperatures every hour. We used the hourly measurements to
190 calculate daily mean temperatures, and then calculate daily, monthly, and annual mean
191 lapse rates (using linear regression, as for the COOP stations). We also recalculated the
192 iButton lapse rates with additional data from a high permanent station at Camp Muir
193 on Mt. Rainier (3070 m, Figure 2). Unfortunately, many missing hours of data from this
194 site prevented us from using it in the investigation of annual means or seasonal variability.
195 However, including Camp Muir as a test, using the 3 months when the most data were
196 available (months that had at least 24 days with at least 16 hourly observations), changed
197 the monthly lapse rates by only 0.1◦ C km−1 on average, and by 0.3◦ C km−1 at most.
198 Considering scatter about the temperature-elevation regression line, the 95% confidence
199 interval for the estimate of the iButton annual mean lapse rates is ±0.6◦ C km−1 for Mt.
200 Rainier and ±0.7◦ C km−1 for the North Cascades.

MINDER ET AL.: MOUNTAIN LAPSE RATES X - 11
2.3. Radiosondes
201 We analyzed free air lapse rates from radiosonde measurements at Quillayute on the
202 Washington coast (marked UIL in Figure 1), obtained from the University of Wyoming
203 sounding archive (http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html). This data set pro-
204 vided twice daily (00 and 12 UTC, 16 and 04 LST) temperature profiles for 1973-2007.
205 We analyzed both the whole 34 year period, and also isolated the Mount Rainier (2006-
206 2007) and North Cascade (2007-2008) iButton observing periods, for comparison. For
207 each sounding used, the temperature measurements were linearly interpolated to a reg-
208 ular 100 m vertical profile before the analysis, and monthly mean lapse rates from the
209 0.5-2.5 km layer were calculated by linear regression. Mean soundings for each month
210 were constructed by averaging the temperatures from all available soundings. For 1973 to
211 2007, 93% of the 00 and 12 UTC soundings were available and complete enough for use
212 in the analysis. For the north Cascades and Rainier observing periods 94 % and 92 % of
213 possible soundings were present. A cursory analysis of soundings associated with moun-
214 tain precipitation events was also conducted by identifying “wet” soundings for separate
215 analysis. Since defining region-averaged precipitation from sparsely spaced gauges is not
216 straightforward we chose to simply focus on soundings with conditions typical of mountain
217 precipitation events in the region [e.g., Smith et al., 2005; Minder et al., 2008]: 0.5-2.5 km
218 wind directions between 140 and 320 degrees and relative humidity greater than 80 %.
2.4. MM5 forecasts
219 We also analyzed surface lapse rates from operational high resolution numerical weather
220 prediction model simulations over the region. From 1997 until mid-2008, the Northwest
221 Regional Modeling Consortium at the University of Washington ran the fifth genera-

222 tion Penn State-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (known as
223 the MM5, [Grell et al., 1995]) over the Pacific Northwest [Mass et al., 2003]. They ran
224 the MM5 at 4 km horizontal resolution twice daily (initialized at 00 and 12 UTC, 16
225 and 04 LST). The model was run with a full suite of sophisticated physical param-
226 eterization for atmospheric radiation, surface fluxes, convection, clouds and precipita-
227 tion, etc. MM5 solves for the surface temperatures by considering the physical pro-
228 cesses contributing to the surface energy budget including radiative, turbulent, advective,
229 ground, and latent heat fluxes. A full description of the model runs can be found at:
230 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/mm5info.html.
231 By piecing together hourly output from forecast hours 12-24 of consecutive archived
232 MM5 forecasts, we created a time series of daily averaged 2 m air temperatures predicted
233 by the model at each grid point. The model grids were analyzed for the 2006-2007 Mount
234 Rainier observing period for comparison with observations. The MM5 output was ana-
235 lyzed over three domains (Figure 1): roughly the windward (western) and lee (eastern)
236 sides of the Washington Cascades, and Mount Rainier and its immediate surroundings.
237 The Rainier domain is substantially larger than the iButton field study region so that
238 enough MM5 grid points can be included to attain good regression statistics. Additional
239 calculations with a smaller domain (about one-quarter smaller in area, focused more
240 tightly around Rainier’s peak) gave lapse rates that differed by less than 1◦ C km−1 in any
241 given month and less than 0.1◦ C km−1 in the annual mean. For each region only grid-
242 points above 200 m elevation were used to exclude the relatively flat lowlands and focus
243 on mountainous areas (Figure 1). Daily and monthly mean lapse rates were calculated
244 for each region, using linear regression. The elevation grid used by MM5 was used for

245 the regression. Since region-averaged precipitation could be readily diagnosed from the
246 model, output forecasts with average precipitation > 2 mm 12 hrs−1 were identified to
247 characterize “stormy” lapse rates for separate analysis.
2.5. PRISM analysis
248 The Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM)
249 [www.prism.oregonstate.edu, Daly et al., 2002, 2008] is a statistical algorithm that ob-
250 jectively combines monthly- and annual-mean data from essentially all available stations
251 to create high resolution gridded analyzes. PRISM uses localized linear regression of
252 temperature and elevation to define lapse rates that are then used to construct grids
253 for average daily maximum and minimum temperatures. This approach allows surface
254 lapse rates to vary seasonally and spatially, and to differ from the free air. Before the
255 temperature-elevation regression is calculated, stations are assigned weights according to
256 their “physiographic similarity” to the grid cell of interest (in terms of aspect, proximity
257 to water bodies, expected position in the boundary layer, etc.). Through this weighting
258 procedure PRISM attempts to account for the effects on temperatures of cold air pool-
259 ing, low-level inversions, and water bodies [Daly et al., 2008]. The station data used are
260 subjected to additional quality control before the PRISM interpolation [Daly et al., 2008].
261 At high elevations in the Cascades the PRISM analysis relies primarily on observations
262 from the SNOTEL (www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/) and RAWS (www.fs.fed.us/raws/)
263 networks. PRISM also includes COOP data, and thus it does not represent a completely
264 independent data source.
265 We calculated long term mean lapse rates from the 1971-2000 PRISM monthly nor-
266 mals, gridded at 800 m resolution. We also analyzed the standard monthly PRISM

267 data, gridded at 4 km resolution, for the 2006-2007 Mount Rainier observing period. We
268 approximated monthly mean PRISM temperatures by averaging monthly mean Tmax
269 and Tmin together, then analyzed the PRISM grids using the same methods and do-
270 mains as for the MM5 data. The elevation grids used in the regression came from
271 the PRISM dataset and were originally derived from the National Elevation Dataset
272 (http://gisdata.usgs.gov/NED/) as described by Daly et al. [2008].
3. Results
273 The data sources listed above describe temperature variability over different domains at
274 different resolutions, and hence the results should not be expected to match exactly. Since
275 they each have their owns strengths and weaknesses the datasets complement each other
276 and together provide a more complete view of temperature variability in the Cascades.
277 The COOP data span the longest time period and a large region, but the highest COOP
278 station (Paradise) is at an elevation of only 1650 m. The iButtons provide high resolution
279 in time (hourly) and space (100 m or less in the vertical), and extend to somewhat higher
280 altitude (2120 m) but were only deployed for a year and only in two small areas of the Cas-
281 cades. The radiosonde measurements are taken twice daily, with high vertical resolution,
282 and extend back for several decades, but they sample the free air, not the surface, and only
283 at one location over 100 km from the Cascades. Output from MM5 simulations is uni-
284 formly distributed in space and time, but even at 4 km resolution, the grid box elevations
285 reach only about 2500 m at Mt Rainier (actual peak elevation 4392 m). Furthermore,
286 MM5 lapse rates are model predictions and thus subject to model biases. Finally, the
287 PRISM analysis incorporates data from all available observational networks, but has only

288 monthly resolution, relies on various assumptions in the interpolation procedure, and may
289 be subject to sizable errors where station observations are sparse.
3.1. Annual means
290 Figure 3 shows annual mean temperatures and lapse rates for our datasets. Annual mean
291 lapse rates vary from 3.9◦ C km−1 for the Rainier iButtons to 5.7◦ C km−1 for MM5 during
292 storms in the same year, and no dataset shows annual-mean lapse rates of daily-averaged
293 temperatures as large as 6◦ C km−1 (although annual mean lapse rates of daily maximum
294 temperatures in COOP data reach 6.1◦ C km−1 , Figure 3b). In the mean soundings (Figure
295 3a,c, and g), “wet” days are slightly cooler than all days, but the lapse rates are about
296 the same. Sounding lapse rates are similar in 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 when calculated
297 using all data, and are 0.6◦ C km−1 higher on wet days in 2007-2008 than in 2006-2007
298 (Figure 3c and g).
299 The COOP climatology show significantly greater annual mean lapse rates for the daily
300 Tmax than Tmin (6.1◦ C km−1 vs. 4.2◦ C km−1 ) for 1949-1978 (Figure 3b). COOP Lapse
301 rates for 2006-2007 were smaller than the climatological mean (Figure 3d). For 2006-2007
302 the “mean” COOP lapse rate (from the average of Tmax and Tmin) was 4.3◦ C km−1 ,
303 quite close to the mean lapse rate from the 2006-2007 soundings, 4.7◦ C km−1 .
304 PRISM 1971-2000 normal grids over the windward slopes (not shown) have annual mean
305 lapse rates very similar to the COOP stations for Tmin (4.1◦ C km−1 ), but have smaller
306 values for Tmax (4.8◦ C km−1 ). Thus, the inclusion of other observational networks (e.g.,
307 RAWS and SNOTEL) and station-weighting techniques in the PRISM analysis does result
308 in somewhat different lapse rates then those attained from the relatively sparse COOP
309 coverage alone.

310 For the iButton data, the lapse rate for the Rainier domain during 2006-2007 (Figure
311 3e) is 3.9◦ C km−1 . This value is smaller than the lapse rate from the soundings, and
312 accordingly the iButtons are warmer at high elevations than the soundings, an unexpected
313 result for an isolated peak where high elevations are well-exposed to the free air, only
314 rarely under calm conditions dominated by local surface energy balance. In contrast, the
315 iButtons in the northern Cascades in 2007-2008 (Figure 3h) have a mean profile very
316 similar to that of the soundings during the same period.
317 Mean MM5 lapse rates for the Rainier region in 2006-2007 (Figure 3f) show somewhat
318 higher values than the sounding, iButton, and mean COOP observations: 5.0◦ C km−1 .
319 The MM5 lapse rate during stormy conditions is 5.7◦ C km−1 , larger than the mean value.
3.2. Seasonal variability
320 The seasonal cycle of long term monthly-mean lapse rates (from COOP, PRISM, and
321 the UIL soundings) is shown in Figure 4a. While the magnitudes of the lapse rates are
322 somewhat different in the various datasets, the seasonal variability is similar. The lapse
323 rates change appreciably through the year, with largest lapse rates for Tmax in spring
324 and smallest lapse rates for Tmin in summer. “Wet” soundings had nearly constant lapse
325 rates, between 4.5 and 5◦ C km−1 . In all months lapse rates of COOP Tmax exceed lapse
326 rates of Tmin. The seasonality of lapse rates from all soundings closely resembles that
327 from the COOP observations and PRISM grids, suggesting that the mean regional surface
328 lapse rates are largely determined by region-wide air mass characteristics as represented
329 by the soundings.
330 Since low-level marine stratus clouds can strongly influence the temperature profiles
331 in the coastal region, but would not be expected to affect temperatures over the Cas-

332 cade mountains, the coastal UIL soundings may at times poorly represent the free air
333 abutting the Cascades. Figure 5a plots the seasonal cycle of UIL lapse rates for different
334 layers to examine how strongly low-level features such as marine clouds may affect results.
335 When only the 0.5-1 km layer is considered the summertime (Jul–Aug) lapse rates are
336 strongly reduced, consistent with the frequent summertime occurrence of marine stratus
337 that reduce near-surface temperatures and are often associated with temperature inver-
338 sions. This summertime anomaly is much reduced when the 1-2 km layer is used. Nearly
339 all seasonality is eliminated by using the 2-3 km layer, but this layer is above most of the
340 Cascades topography. The 0.5-2.5 km lapse rates used throughout this study follow most
341 closely the 1-2 km values, suggesting that they are not strongly influenced by near-surface
342 coastal processes. Figure 5b further examines this issue by comparing the seasonality from
343 the UIL sounding with that from the Salem sounding (SLE, also from 1973-2007) located
344 about 360 km south of UIL, over 50 km inland from the Pacific Coast, and separated from
345 the Pacific by the ∼500 m tall Oregon Coastal range. That the SLE and UIL soundings
346 show very similar seasonal cycles indicates that the 0.5-2.5 km UIL climatology is indeed
347 representative of regional-scale free air conditions without a strong influence of coastal
348 effects.
349 The seasonal cycle for the 2006-2007 Mount Rainier study period (from COOP, PRISM,
350 MM5, UIL, and the iButtons) is shown in Figure 4b. Month-to-month variations are larger
351 for this single year than for the multi-year climatologies. Again, there is good correspon-
352 dence among the various datasets despite the different domains and quantities represented.
353 All show a relatively large lapse rate in November as well as in April. Much smaller lapse
354 rates are shown for October, January, and July. The closest correspondence is between the

355 UIL sounding and COOP data, again suggesting that seasonal variations in region-wide
356 lapse rates are strongly controlled by the free air temperature profile. The measurements
357 with the smallest spatial scale, the iButtons, show the weakest correspondence with the
358 soundings, suggesting that on the scale of an individual mountainside local factors remain
359 important in addition to the regional airmass conditions.
3.3. Geographic variability: windward vs. lee
360 To investigate geographic variability in lapse rates, we compare the lapse rates on the
361 windward (west) and leeward (east) sides of the Washington Cascades (Figure 6). In both
362 the long term PRISM climatology and the 2006-2007 PRISM data the lee side shows a
363 larger seasonal cycle with a different phasing than the windward side (Figure 6a). In the
364 lee the lapse rates vary by about 4◦ C km−1 , greatest in May-Jul and smallest in Dec-Jan.
365 The lee side seasonality is similar to that found by Rasmussen [2009] using a single pair of
366 stations in the northeastern Cascades. This lee side seasonality contrasts with the more
367 muted seasonal cycle on the windward side (about 1◦ C km−1 ), with largest lapse rates in
368 Mar-May and lowest in Jul-Sep. These differences between windward and lee side lapse
369 rates are apparent for 2006-2007 in MM5 as well (Figure 6b), with MM5 showing higher
370 lapse rates than PRISM, but similar seasonal cycles.
371 Results from lee side COOP data are similar (not shown), but lapse rates in COOP
372 minimum temperature are problematic because the stations on the east slopes of the
373 Cascades are mainly in deep valleys (Figure 1), potentially subject to strong localized
374 cold air pooling. While biases of the lee side COOP stations may affect the PRISM
375 analysis (although PRISM attempts to account for cold air pooling, [Daly et al., 2008]),

376 the agreement between the MM5 and PRISM lead us to conclude that the windward
377 versus lee side differences in lapse rates are a robust feature.
378 Low lee side lapse rates can result from the pooling of cold continental air in the
379 Columbia Basin (Figure 1) and the damming of cold air against the eastern slopes of
380 the Cascades [e.g., Bell and Bosart, 1988; Steenburgh et al., 1997; Whiteman et al., 2001].
381 Both of these phenomena occur primarily in the wintertime, and result in an accumulation
382 of cold air at low elevations in the lee that greatly decrease lapse rates, often resulting
383 in temperature inversions. Whiteman et al. [2001] developed a climatology of Columbia
384 basin cold pool events by identifying periods > 18 hrs with low wind speeds and tem-
385 perature inversions. This climatology shows the greatest frequency of cold pools in Dec
386 and Jan. Thus these events are likely responsible for the minimum in lee side lapse rates
387 found in the same months (Figure 6). Additionally, clear winter nights with strong ra-
388 diative cooling in the lee of the Cascades may lead to more cold air drainage into valleys,
389 resulting in locally reduced lapse rates [e.g., Rolland , 2003]. Such differences in lapse rates
390 across mountains are likely a common feature for for ranges that separate maritime and
391 continental climatic zones.
3.4. Year-to-year variability
392 Estimating year-to-year variability requires a long and consistent dataset. Unfortu-
393 nately the shortness of the MM5 and iButton datasets, and the network changes in the
394 COOP and PRISM datasets mean the UIL soundings likely offer the only good regional-
395 scale measure of interannual lapse rate variability.
396 We examine the year-to-year regional variability by analyzing the distribution of
397 monthly mean lapse rates calculated from the 35 yrs of UIL sounding data. Figure 7

398 shows the median, inner-quartile range (IQR), and full range of UIL lapse rates. Typical
399 variations in the lapse rate, as measured by the IQR, are modest; the IQR varies from
400 0.54◦ C km−1 (Jun) to 0.93◦ C km−1 (Oct). The full range of monthly mean lapse rates is
401 substantially larger. It is largest in the late-fall and winter months (Nov-Feb, peaking at
402 2.9◦ C km−1 ), and smallest in the summer (Jun-Aug) (Figure 7).
403 For comparison we also plot the distribution (median, IQR, range) of monthly-mean
404 lapse rates calculated from the pair of COOP stations on Mt Rainier (Longmire and
405 Paradise, Figure 2). All available monthly mean data from 1948-2006 were used, and
406 the lapse rates were calculated simply as the difference between the station temperatures
407 divided by the elevation difference (Figure 7). Comparing results from the station pair
408 with the regional signal represented by the soundings shows a similar mean lapse rate and
409 a similar increase in lapse rate variability in wintertime, but the similarities end there. The
410 seasonal cycle from the station pair is distinctly different, indicating the largest lapse rates
411 in months when the sounding lapse rates are at some of their lowest values. Additionally,
412 the station pair also shows much larger year-to-year variability of the monthly-mean lapse
413 rate, even showing some years with negative values in Dec-Jan. These differences may be
414 attributable to local aspects of climate around these stations such as the seasonal cycle of
415 snow cover, cold air pooling at Longmire (a valley site), and/or orographic clouds unique
416 to Mount Rainier.
3.5. Day-to-day variability
417 To reveal variability in lapse rates on day-to-day timescales we plot, for each month
418 of 2006-2007 field season, the median and IQR of daily lapse rates from the iButton and
419 MM5 in Figure 8a. The observations show large day-to-day variability in the lapse rates,

420 with the IQR exceeding 4◦ C km−1 in Oct and Aug. The MM5 shows much less day-to-day
421 variability than the iButtons in months with large observed variability (the largest IQR is
422 about 2◦ C km−1 ), but shows similar amounts of variability in months with small observed
423 variability. The reduced variability in the MM5 relative to the iButtons may be due to
424 model bias, or to the more region-averaged nature of the MM5 data compared to the more
425 localized iButton observations.
426 We also compare MM5 modeled day-to-day lapse rate variability on the windward and
427 lee slopes for 2006-2007. The windward slopes show similar variability to the Rainier
428 domain. From late spring through fall the lee slopes also have similar variability, however
429 the lee side variability is greatly enhanced in the winter months (Dec-Mar), with Dec
430 and Jan exhibiting IQRs of over 4◦ C km−1 . This large wintertime variability is likely
431 associated with events where cold continental air accumulates against the lower lee slopes,
432 as discussed in section 3.3.
4. Implications for hydrological modeling
433 Having characterized how the surface lapse rates in the Cascades differ from the typ-
434 ically assumed value of 6.5◦ C km−1 we now proceed to investigate the implications of
435 our results for hydrological modeling. We first turn to the results of Casola et al. [2009],
436 who estimated the sensitivity of the western Washington Cascade snowpack to climate
437 warming using a simple geometrical model and a sophisticated hydrological model. Both
438 models assumed a lapse rate of 6.5◦ C km−1 and estimated a 22–23 % loss of April 1st
439 snow water equivalent per degree of warming (when precipitation changes were neglected).
440 However, changing the lapse rate in their geometrical model to 5.0◦ C km−1 (a value more
441 representative of actual lapse rates in the region) increases this sensitivity to a 30 % loss

442 of snowpack per degree of warming, a major change. Projections of future snowpack and
443 streamflow for this region from other models with the same assumption built in [e.g.,
444 Snover et al., 2003] may be similarly affected by the adjustment to the true surface lapse
445 rate.
446 We further highlight the importance for hydrology of correctly characterizing surface
447 temperatures by presenting a simple model for streamflow in the Cedar River basin of the
448 Washington Cascades (outlined in Figure 1). The model is forced by the climatological
449 daily-mean temperature and precipitation from a single low elevation station in the basin
450 (the Cedar Lake COOP station: 47.25◦ N, 121.44◦ W, elevation 475 m). The basin is
451 divided into 8 elevation bands (each covering 200 m of elevation) and precipitation is
452 distributed uniformly over the basin. For one set of experiments, temperatures for each
453 elevation band are determined from the station data by using constant lapse rates of 6.5,
◦
454 5, and 4 C km−1 . For another pair of experiments the climatological mean seasonal
455 cycles of PRISM lapse rates from the windward and lee sides are used (Figure 6).
456 The SNOW-17 model [Anderson, 1976, used in operational river forecasting] was applied
457 to determine the accumulation and melting of snow. At temperatures <0◦ C the model
458 assumes precipitation falls entirely as snow, and at temperatures >1◦ C it assumes only
459 rain. A mixture of rain and snow falls at intermediate temperatures. For snowmelt the
460 model uses an energy balance approach during rain-on-snow events and a degree day
461 approach during non-precipitating days. Snowmelt and rain water from SNOW-17 were
462 entered into a linear reservoir model to simulate streamflow, accounting for basin storage
463 delays. The model performs a convolution integral of the snow model output with a

h
464 response function, Σh
, where h = exp(−t/τ ), τ = 31.3 days, and t ranges from 1 to
465 18 days [following the formulation in Dooge, 1976].
466 The three hydrographs associated with the three assumed constant lapse rates (Figure
467 9a) all show a maximum associated with rainfall in the autumn, a minimum associated
468 with snowfall in the winter, a larger maximum associated with springtime rainfall and
469 snowmelt, and a late summer minimum when the snow has melted and little precipitation
470 falls. However, large differences in the shape of the hydrograph occur when the assumed
471 lapse rate is varied. For smaller lapse rates, high elevations are warmer, and thus more
472 precipitation falls as rain (increasing the autumn peak flow, and early spring flow). Fur-
473 thermore, with smaller lapse rates less precipitation accumulates as snow, and the snow
474 that does accumulate melts faster due to warmer high elevation temperatures (causing
475 reduced late spring flow and a shift of the springtime hydrograph). The opposite occurs
476 when lapse rates are increased. A particularly dramatic effect is the change in the start of
477 the summer melt (the date at which the snowpack begins its nearly monotonic decline):
478 it is shifted a full month earlier when the lapse rate is changed from 6.5 to 4◦ C km−1 .
479 Hydrographs associated with seasonally varying lapse rates are shown in Figure 9b.
480 Seasonality has little effect when windward lapse rates are used, since there are only
481 modest seasonal variations. Seasonality is much more important when lee side lapse rates
482 are used. Because the leeward slope has much smaller lapse rates in January (3 to 4◦ C
483 km−1 ) high elevations are warmer and receive more liquid precipitation, and thus more
484 runoff at that time. However, because lee side lapse rates become much larger in the spring
485 (around 7◦ C km−1 ), the snow that does fall takes longer to melt (resulting in increased
486 flow in winter and summer, but decreased flow in spring). This example illustrates not

487 only the importance of correctly representing the mean lapse rate but also of correctly
488 representing seasonal and regional variations.
489 To investigate the consequences of lapse rate characterization for climate change projec-
490 tions we have also simulated the response of the Cedar basin to 2◦ C of climate warming at
491 Cedar Lake COOP station with 5 or 6.5◦ C km−1 lapse rates (Figure 9c). First, note that
492 the effects of warming (Figure 9c) are of comparable magnitude to the effects of differing
493 lapse rate assumptions (Figure 9a-b) when considering wintertime peak flow or the timing
494 of melt season flow. Depending on the assumed lapse rate the effects of climate warming
495 on the hydrograph differ. For instance, higher lapse rates result in smaller increases in
496 Dec-Jan flow under warming, since they keep the upper reaches of the basin colder and
497 accordingly less precipitation is converted from snow to rain under warming. The as-
498 sumed lapse rate also strongly effects the impacts of warming at the end of the snowmelt
499 season in July, with large lapse rates resulting in much more marked decreases in July
500 flow under warming. These results reflect the specific hypsometry of the Cedar basin,
501 its precipitation and temperature climatology, and the elevation of the station used to
502 characterize the basin’s climate. Thus, for other basins the impacts of assumed lapse rate
503 will vary, but the impact will likely remain substantial if much of the snowpack resides at
504 near-freezing temperatures.
5. Discussion and conclusions
505 We have characterized in detail the lapse rates for the Washington Cascades, and how
506 they vary diurnally, seasonally, interannually, and geographically. The datasets we present
507 give a characterization of the surface (and free air) lapse rates over regions ranging in scale
508 from the Cascade Mountain range to a slope on Mount Rainier. The agreement between

509 our varied datasets indicates that the results are largely robust on the regional scales
510 considered. Still, our findings may not be particularly representative of the lapse rates in
511 an individual mountain location. For instance, we showed in Figure 7 that inner-annual
512 variability from a station pair on Mount Rainier is much different than that found in the
513 upstream sounding. In light of such local effects, the regional-scale results presented here
514 should be used only with caution when studying features on more local scales. Regional
515 lapse rate estimates in Figures 3 and 4 may be adequate for studies of topics such as
516 regional hydrology. However, these values may not be adequate for studies of topics such
517 as local ecology and runoff from small basins, where site-specific controls on temperature
518 necessitate local observations. The influence of local factors on lapse rates – particularly
519 lapse rates derived from just two stations – also means that good regional estimates of
520 lapse rates require extensive and multifaceted datasets.
521 A particularly important finding is that the expedient assumption of a uniform and
522 constant surface lapse rate of 6.5◦ C km−1 is a poor one. While the difference between
523 a mean lapse rate of 5.0◦ C km−1 and 6.5◦ C km−1 may seem trivial, we have shown
524 that it can have pronounced consequences for mountain hydrology (Figure 9a). Also of
525 importance are regional variations in lapse rates and their seasonality. Variations such as
526 those occurring across the Cascades (Figure 6) are likely common for mountain ranges that
527 separate maritime and continental climates, and also have major hydrological implications
528 (Figure 9b).
529 General lessons of this study are likely applicable to mountainous areas around the
530 globe. Recent studies over other mountain ranges have also shown that 6.5◦ C km−1 is
531 not representative even of mean surface conditions, and that seasonal cycles in lapse rates

532 have similar or greater amplitudes to those found in the Cascades, but the phasing of the
533 seasonality varies [Bolstad et al., 1998; Rolland , 2003; Tang and Fang, 2006; Blandford
534 et al., 2008; Gardner et al., 2009]. Additionally, diurnal variations of surface lapse rates
535 appear to be a fairly robust feature of mountain climates with several studies showing
536 steeper lapse rates in daily maximum than daily minimum temperatures [e.g., Bolstad
537 et al., 1998; Rolland , 2003; Blandford et al., 2008], although the magnitude of the diurnal
538 variations differs between regions. Furthermore, the pronounced cross-mountain variations
539 in lapse rates found in the Cascades are also apparent elsewhere [Rolland , 2003; Tang and
540 Fang, 2006].
541 The importance of the lapse rate for various applications combined with observations
542 of strong lapse rate variability show it is vital that the gridding of climate data use
543 lapse rates as consistent as possible with the observations. In estimating lapse rates from
544 observations attention should be paid to the number and position of stations used: sites
545 in deep valleys, mountain passes, and above glaciers each have distinctive characteristics
546 that strongly affect the local temperature in ways that may not be representative of the
547 larger terrain. When possible, the seasonal cycle of lapse rates, differences between free
548 air and surface lapse rates, and regional differences in lapse rates should be considered.
549 The PRISM analysis methodology appears to capture much of the spatial and seasonal
550 variability apparent in other datasets. Thus, studies that use PRISM and similar products
551 [e.g., Elsner et al., 2009; Loarie et al., 2009; Weiss et al., 2009] likely suffer reduced
552 temperature-related biases as compared to those that use cruder lapse rate assumptions
553 for constructing temperature grids [e.g., Hamlet et al., 2005; Bales et al., 2006; Bonfils
554 et al., 2008]. However, since PRISM is built on observations, its performance is expected

555 to degrade where there is sparse observational coverage. The success of MM5 at simulating
556 lapse rate variability in this study shows that mesoscale numerical weather models are
557 also valuable tools for mapping temperature, and may be of particular use in remote
558 and complex terrain with minimal observations. However, further work must evaluate
559 how well mesoscale models capture the details of the temperature distribution such as
560 localized cool air pools and temperature inversions. Finally, at least for the Cascades,
561 upwind soundings offer a fair representation of the seasonal cycle and annual mean of
562 surface lapse rates on the windward slopes, providing yet another tool for temperature
563 analysis when observations are sparse.
564 The present study has largely stopped short of diagnosing the physical causes of lapse
565 rate variability, however this is an important task. While the seasonality of lee side lapse
566 rates appears to be clearly linked to behavior of cold air pools in the Columbia basin, many
567 other aspects of the climatology remain unexplained. The primary processes controlling
568 day-to-day and month-to-month variability, the seasonality over the windward slope, and
569 differing values for “stormy” lapse rates are still unknown. Efforts to understand surface
570 lapse rate variability in term of air mass characteristics (e.g., temperature and humidity),
571 solar radiation, and synoptic flow patterns have reached differing conclusions as to the
572 important controls [e.g., Pepin et al., 1999; Marshall et al., 2007; Blandford et al., 2008]. A
573 better understanding of the controls on mountain lapse rates in particular and mountain
574 temperature patterns in general will be important for further improving climatological
575 temperature analyzes and understanding present and future mountain climates. Achieving
576 this will require synthesis of historical station data, experimental observational networks,

577 sophisticated atmospheric models, and theory to recognize the dominant temperature
578 patterns and their physical causes.
579 Acknowledgments. We thank the Northwest Regional Modeling Consortium for access to the
580 MM5 data, and thank Neal Johnson for assistance in dearchiving them. We also thank Josiah
581 Mault, Natalie Low, and Andrey Shcherbina for help with field work. Gerard Roe provided
582 helpful comments on previous drafts of the paper. Comments from 3 anonymous reviewers also
583 improved the paper’s contents. JDL acknowledges funding from the National Park Service Pacific
584 Northwest Ecosystem Studies Unit for deploying iButtons in Mt. Rainier and North Cascades
585 National Parks, and from NSF grant EAR-0838166. JRM acknowledges funding from a NSF
586 graduate research fellowship and NSF grant EAR-0642835. This publication is partially funded
587 by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean under NOAA Cooperative
588 Agreement No. NA17RJ1232, Contribution #1753.
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Figure 1. Map of WA Cascade study region. The location of radiosonde launchess is shown
with a yellow star (labeled UIL). COOP stations used in this study are indicated by left-pointing
blue triangles for windward side and right-pointing red triangles for lee side; three COOP stations
indicated with green squares, are used for both lee and windward side calculations. Other COOP
stations that were not used are shown as small white diamonds. Locations of iButtons deployed
for this study are shown with magenta circles. Dashed rectangles show the Rainier (small box),
windward (western), and leeward (eastern) domains used for analysis of MM5 and PRISM grids.
The Cedar river basin is colored white. Important geographic features are labeled. Greyscale
indicates elevation in meters.
Figure 2. Map of 2006-2007 Rainier field study region. Locations of iButton temperature
sensor deployments are shown with magenta circles. The Camp Muir station is indicated with a
red star. The Longmire and Paradise COOP stations are indicated with blue triangles. Glaciers
on the mountain are shaded in cyan. Major roads are shown with grey lines. Greyscale indicates
elevation in meters.

Figure 3. Mean profiles and lapse rates for various data sources and periods. (a)-(b) show
long-term means for the periods indicated, (c)-(f) show the 2007 water year, and (g)-(h) show
the 2008 water year. For the UIL soundings (first column) annual mean soundings are shown
for all (solid line) and “wet” (dashed line) conditions. For COOP data (second column), mean
temperatures and linear fits are shown for both daily maximum (diamond) and minimum (+)
temperatures. For iButton data (third column), data from individual sensors are shown with o’s
as well as linear fits (black line). For the MM5 grids from the Mount Rainier domain (fourth
column) the mean temperatures at individual MM5 grid points are shown as dots, linear fits are
shown for all data (solid line) and “stormy” days (dashed line). In each row the mean sounding
from the leftmost panel is repeated (as a gray line) in the other panels for reference.
Figure 4. Mean seasonal cycle of lapse rates: (a) long-term mean from windward COOP
stations (Tmax, Tmean, Tmin), PRISM (Cascades windward domain, 800 m climatological
grids), and UIL sounding data (all soundings, and “stormy” soundings), as indicated in legend;
(b) 2006-07 season, from Mount Rainier iButtons, MM5 and PRISM grids from the Rainier
domain, and windward COOP station Tmean.
Figure 5. Mean seasonal cycle of sounding lapse rates calculated from: (a) various layers of
the UIL sounding (as indicated in legend), (b) 0.5-2.5 km layers of the UIL and SLE soundings.

Figure 6. Comparison of lapse rates for the Cascade windward and lee domains. (a) Seasonal
cycle from the long-term PRISM climatology (1971-2000, with 800 m horizontal gridding) for the
windward (grey solid) and lee (grey dashed) domains as well as for the 2006-2007 season from
PRISM (with 4 km horizontal gridding, plotted in black). (b) Seasonal cycle for 2006-2007 from
PRISM (as in (a)), and MM5 windward (grey solid) and lee (grey dashed) domains.
Figure 7. Year-to-year variability in monthly-mean lapse rates. Thick horizontal lines show
the month’s median lapse rate calculated using the UIL soundings from 1973-2007 (black) and
the Paradise-Longmire station pair from 1948-2006 (gray). Boxes show the inner-quartile range,
and the whiskers show the full range of the data.
Figure 8. Day-to-day variability in lapse rates for the 2006-2007 field season. (a) shows
the median (bold line) and inner-quartile range (IQR, shown with boxes) of daily lapse rates
for each month from the MM5 (gray) and iButton (black) data over the Rainier domain. (b)
shows median and IQR (plotted as in (a) ) from MM5 data over windward (black) and lee (gray)
domains from 2006-2007.

Figure 9. Hydrographs for idealized simulations of Cedar watershed runoff described in
text. (a) Results from simulations where constant lapse rates of 4.0, 5.0, and 6.5 ◦ C km−1 are
assumed (with solid, dashed, and dash-dotted lines respectively). (b) Results from simulations
with seasonally varying PRISM lapse rates from the windward and lee domains (with solid, and
dash-dotted lines), as well as a constant 5.0 ◦ C km−1 (dashed). (c) Results from simulations of a
2◦ C climate warming (solid lines) with constant lapse rates of 5.0 and 6.5 ◦ C km−1 . In all panels
the runoff has been normalized by dividing by the basin area.

a. Soundings, 73-07 b. COOP windward, 1949-78
2500 2500
2000 4.8oC/km 2000 4.2oC/km

6.1oC/km
elevation, m
1500 1500
1000 1000
wet: 4.8oC/km
500 500
0 0
-5 0 5 10 15 20 -5 0 5 10 15 20
o
T, C T, oC
c. Soundings, 06-07 d. COOP windward, 06-07 e. Rainier iButtons 06-07 f. MM5 Rainier 06-07
2500 2500 2500 2500
2000 4.7oC/km 2000 2000 3.9oC/km 2000 5.0oC/km

3.5oC/km
5.1oC/km
elevation, m
1500 1500 1500 1500
1000 1000 1000 1000
500 wet: 4.6oC/km 500 500 500

Stormy: 5.7oC/km
0 0 0 0
-5 0 5 10 15 20 -5 0 5 10 15 20 -5 0 5 10 15 20 -5 0 5 10 15 20
T, oC T, oC T, oC T, oC
g. Soundings, 07-08 h. NoCasc iButtons 07-08
2500 2500
2000 4.5oC/km 2000 4.7oC/km

elevation, m
1500 1500
1000 1000
wet: 5.2oC/km
500 500
0 0
-5 0 5 10 15 20 -5 0 5 10 15 20
o
T, C T, oC
a. Mean lapse rates
8
Tmax
7 Tmean COOP
Tmin
6
C/km
5
o
4
PRISM windward
3 stormy UIL soundings
all UIL soundings
2
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
b. Lapse rates 06-07

8
i-Buttons
7 MM5 Rainier
PRISM Rainier
Tmean COOP
6
C/km
5
o
2
6 (a)
5
C / km
4 UIL (0.5−2.5 km)

o
UIL (0.5−1 km)

3 UIL (1−2 km)
UIL (2−3 km)
2
6.5
6 (b)
5.5
C / km
4.5
o
4
UIL (0.5−2.5 km)
3.5 SLE (0.5−2.5 km)
3
9
8 (a)
7
6
C / km
5
4
o
3 PRISM (climo) lee

2 PRISM (climo) windward
PRISM (06−07) lee
1
PRISM (06−07) windward
0
9
8 (b)
7
6
C / km
5
4
o
3 MM5 lee
2 MM5 windward
PRISM (06−07) lee
1
PRISM (06−07) windward
0
8
7
6
5
4
C/km
3
o
2
1
0 UIL soundings
−1 Paradise−Longmire (Rainier)
−2
month
9
(a) Rainier
8
(06−07)
7
6
C / km
5
4
o
3
2 MM5 Rainier
1 iButtons Rainier
0
9
(b) Windward & lee
8
(06−07)
7
6
C / km
5
4
o
3
2 MM5 lee
1 MM5 windward
0
20
4 °C km−1
(a)
5 °C km−1
15
6.5 °C km−1
mm day−1
10
0
20
windward monthly
(b)
5 °C km−1
15
leeward monthly
mm day−1
10
0
20 6.5 °C km−1
5 °C km−1 (c)
−1
+2°C & 5 °C km
15
+2°C & 6.5 °C km−1
mm day−1
10
0
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Article in Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · July 2010

Justin R. Minder Philip Mote

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1 Surface temperature lapse rates over complex

3 Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Washington, Seattle,

5 Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Oceanic and

6 Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

7 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of

8 Washington, Seattle, Washington

J. R. Minder, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Box 351640,

Seattle,WA 98195-1640, USA. ([email protected])

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

9 Abstract. The typically sparse distribution of weather stations in moun-

10 tainous terrain inadequately resolves temperature variability. Accordingly,

11 high-resolution gridding of climate data (for applications such as hydrolog-

12 ical modeling) often relies on assumptions such as a constant surface tem-

13 perature lapse rate (i.e., decrease of surface temperature with altitude) of

14 6.5◦ C km−1 . Using an example of the Cascade Mountains, we describe the

22 km−1 ) in late-summer minimum temperatures, and largest (6.5-7.5◦ C km−1 )

23 in spring maximum temperatures. Geographic (windward vs. lee side) dif-

25 we show the appreciable implications of these results for hydrological mod-

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

27 Quantifying the distribution of temperature in complex terrain, especially the relation-

37 station data to make gridded fields.

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

55 are unimportant in determining surface temperatures, which is only occasionally a good

59 anomalies [e.g., Steenburgh et al., 1997].

60 A number of observational studies using networks of temperature sensors have revealed

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

77 sophisticated statistical methods for analyzing mountain temperatures is the Parameter-

81 and analysis [e.g., Weiss et al., 2009] studies.

82 It is of utmost importance for societal planning in water resources, hydropower, agricul-

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

93 utilize surface temperature lapse rates as important input parameters.

103 Gardner et al., 2009].

113 data from a single pair of stations.

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

122 portance to regional hydrology.

2. Data and Methods

2.1. COOP stations

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

135 sensor (see below) using linear regression.

143 a minimum elevation of 50 m, and minimum number of valid years of 19 (a combination

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

156 all performed better than ±0.2◦ C.

171 sensor is exposed to near-surface temperature inversions. However, we minimized this

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

182 both sites.

183 In the northern Cascades, we installed 21 iButtons in an approximate east-west transect

200 Rainier and ±0.7◦ C km−1 for the North Cascades.

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

203 sounding archive (http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html). This data set pro-

2.4. MM5 forecasts

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

D R A F T February 26, 2010, 3:44pm D R A F T

247 characterize “stormy” lapse rates for separate analysis.

2.5. PRISM analysis

248 The Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM)