Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: Review Article

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review article

Published online: 21 FebruarY 2010 | doi: 10.1038/ngeo779

tropical cyclones and climate change


thomas r. Knutson1*, John l. Mcbride2, Johnny chan3, Kerry emanuel4, greg holland5, chris landsea6,
isaac held1, James P. Kossin7, a. K. srivastava8 and Masato sugi9

Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has
been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and
intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of
atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of
global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity
have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution
dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones
to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project
decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling
studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20%
in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins
show large variations between different modelling studies.

T
he challenge for climate change detection and attribution coastal areas. In developing countries, in particular, the movement
research with regard to tropical cyclones is to determine of the population to the coast is the result of social factors that are not
whether an observed change in tropical cyclone activity easily countered. Climate change is hence one of several factors likely
exceeds the variability expected through natural causes, and to to affect the future evolution of damage from tropical cyclones.
attribute significant changes to specific climate forcings, such as We discuss here issues related to detection and attribution, and
greenhouse gases or aerosols. For future projections of tropical to future projections for tropical cyclones. The future projection
cyclone activity, the challenge is to develop both a reliable projec- statements in this report are intended to apply roughly to the IPCC
tion of changes in the various factors influencing tropical cyclones, A1B scenario2 as of the late twenty-first century. All likelihood
both local and remote, and a means of simulating the effect of statements follow conventions used by the IPCC2 (Supplementary
these climate changes on tropical cyclone metrics, such as storm Information S4).
frequency, intensity and track distribution. This two-step process We consider new developments in the field since the 2006 World
is required because the coupled atmosphere–ocean models used Meteorological Organization expert-team statement6, including: new
to project climate on a multidecadal to centennial timescale do not satellite-based intensity analyses; improved hindcast performance of
themselves simulate tropical cyclones adequately. downscaling techniques; substantial new analysis of data homoge-
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in most regions of tropical neity issues; new simulations with higher resolution global models;
cyclone formation have increased by several tenths of a degree and analyses of the sensitivity of tropical cyclone projections to the
Celsius during the past several decades1. The Intergovernmental choice of climate model being downscaled. A discussion of limita-
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report2 con- tions of tropical cyclone historical data is given in Supplementary
cluded that most of the global surface temperature increase over Information S5. For detection and attribution, the emphasis here is
the past half century is very likely due to the observed increase in on the Atlantic Ocean basin because the data records for this region
anthropogenic greenhouse-gas concentrations, and the US Climate are longer and relatively more reliable, though our assessment state-
Change Science Program 3.3 report3 extended this by concluding ments (summarized in Box 1) include consideration of all basins as
that human-induced greenhouse-gas increases have very likely appropriate. Comparisons with previous assessments and recom-
contributed to the increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in mendations for future progress are contained in Supplementary
hurricane formation regions4. These results have raised the question Information S6 and S7.
of how substantial further warming, coupled with other changes in
the tropical environment, would affect tropical cyclone activity. tropical cyclone activity versus sea surface temperature
Recent decades have seen very large increases in the economic Over the past 50 years, a significant statistical correlation has existed
damage and disruption caused by tropical cyclones. Historical between Atlantic tropical cyclone power dissipation (definitions
analyses5 indicate that this has been caused primarily by rising in Supplementary Information S4) and SST on timescales of a
coastal populations and the increasing value of infrastructure in few years or more7. A comparable large correlation exists, on all

1
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA, 2Centre for Australian Weather and Climate
Research, Melbourne 3001, Australia, 3Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China,
4
Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Room 54-1620 MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge,
Massachusetts 02139, USA, 5National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA, 6National Hurricane Center/NWS/NOAA, 11691 SW
17th Street, Miami, Florida 33165, USA, 7National Climatic Data Center/NOAA, 1225 W Dayton Street, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA, 8India
Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune 411005, India, 9Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku,
Yokohama, 236-0001 Kanagawa, Japan. *e-mail: Tom.Knutson@noaa.gov

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review article NaTurE gEosciENcE doi: 10.1038/ngeo779

Box 1 | summary of detection, attribution and projection assessments.

detection and attribution twenty-first-century warming, although increases may not occur
It remains uncertain whether past changes in any tropical cyclone in all tropical regions. The frequency of the most intense (rare/
activity (frequency, intensity, rainfall, and so on) exceed the high-impact) storms will more likely than not increase by a
variability expected through natural causes, after accounting for substantially larger percentage in some basins.
changes over time in observing capabilities.
Rainfall. Rainfall rates are likely to increase. The projected mag-
tropical cyclone projections nitude is on the order of +20% within 100 km of the tropical
Frequency. It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones cyclone centre.
will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged owing to
greenhouse warming. We have very low confidence in projected Genesis, tracks, duration and surge flooding. We have low con-
changes in individual basins. Current models project changes fidence in projected changes in tropical cyclone genesis-location,
ranging from −6 to −34% globally, and up to ±50% or more in tracks, duration and areas of impact. Existing model projections do
individual basins by the late twenty-first century. not show dramatic large-scale changes in these features. The vul-
nerability of coastal regions to storm-surge flooding is expected to
Intensity. Some increase in the mean maximum wind speed of increase with future sea-level rise and coastal development, although
tropical cyclones is likely (+2 to +11% globally) with projected this vulnerability will also depend on future storm characteristics.

timescales down to a year, between the power dissipation and the Some observational studies15–17 report substantial century-scale
tropical Atlantic Ocean SST relative to mean tropical SST8. Taken increases in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency, that can be mod-
at face value, these two statistical relations lead to dramatically dif- elled statistically by the century-scale SST increases (Fig. 2, first
ferent inferences about late-twenty-first-century Atlantic tropical blue series versus second green series), and some of this increase
cyclone activity9, ranging from a dramatic increase of about 300% has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing15,16. However, it has
in the first case to little change in the second (Fig. 1). been found20 that the statistical significance of the trends in the
Tropical Atlantic Ocean SST has increased more rapidly than original storm frequency data is greatly reduced after adjustments
tropical mean SST over the past 30 years, coincident with the posi- are made20,21 for an estimated number of missing tropical cyclones
tive trend in the Atlantic power dissipation index over this period owing to a lower reporting-ship track density and other observa-
(Fig. 1b). This differential warming of the Atlantic can be affected tional limitations in pre-satellite (pre-1966) years (Fig. 2, first red
by natural multidecadal variability, as well as by aerosol forcing, series). Furthermore, the trend in storm count in the original data
but climate models9–13 indicate that it is not strongly influenced has been shown to be almost entirely due to an increase in short
by greenhouse-gas forcing (Fig. 1b). If the relationship between duration (<2-day) tropical storms22 — a phenomenon that has been
Atlantic power dissipation and this differential warming in Fig. 1b interpreted as likely being attributable to changes in observing capa-
is causal, then a substantial part of the increase in Atlantic power bilities22. There is a much smaller increasing trend in storms lasting
dissipation since 1950 is likely due to factors other than greenhouse- more than two days (Fig. 2, second red series) and after an estimated
gas-induced warming. adjustment for missing storms20,22, the resulting long-term trend is
On the other hand, the case for the importance of local SSTs not significant (p > 0.05).
would be strengthened by observations of an increase in power dis- Hurricane counts (with no adjustments for possible missing
sipation in other basins, in which local warming in recent decades cases) show a significant increase from the late 1800s to present, but
does not exceed the tropical mean warming. A study for the north- do not have a significant trend from the 1850s or 1860s to present 3.
west Pacific Ocean basin7 shows a statistical correlation between Other studies23 infer a substantial low-bias in early Atlantic tropical
low-frequency variability of power dissipation and local SSTs. But cyclone intensities (1851–1920), which, if corrected, would further
this correlation is considerably weaker than for the Atlantic Ocean, reduce or possibly eliminate long-term increasing trends in basin-
and other key measures of storm activity in the northwest Pacific, wide hurricane counts. Landfalling tropical storm and hurricane
such as the number of Category 4 and 5 typhoons, do not show a activity in the US shows no long-term increase (Fig. 2, orange
significant correlation with SST14. series)20. Basin-wide major hurricane counts show a significant
rising trend, but we judge these basin-wide data as unreliable for
tropical cyclone frequency climate-trend estimation before aircraft reconnaissance in 1944.
Detection and attribution. We first consider tropical Atlantic A study of a 1,500-year record of sediment overwash from a
Ocean SST variability, which has been used statistically to model number of sites along the US coast and one near Puerto Rico24 finds
Atlantic changes in the frequency of tropical storms15–17. Substantial evidence for relatively high numbers of strong Atlantic hurricane
multidecadal SST variability is evident in the North Atlantic basin landfalls at these sites during several periods (from around
(Fig. 2, second green series). The cause of this variability remains ad 1000–1200; the early 1400s; the early 1800s; the 1950s; and in
uncertain, with possible contributions from both internal climate recent decades). This record is not subject to the same data errors
variability and radiative-forcing changes16,18. Evidence from tropical that have made direct assessment of strong-hurricane frequency
African lake sediments19 indicates that rainfall variability before the from the observational record difficult, but is subject to uncertainties
twentieth century was at least as large as that seen in the twentieth in interpretation of storm characteristics from geological evidence
century, increasing the plausibility of substantial natural climatic and limited spatial coverage. Comparisons of this data set with
variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The multidecadal SST other measures of strong landfalling tropical cyclones in the period
variability (evident in Fig. 2, second green series) complicates trend of direct records have yet to be documented.
detection in the tropical Atlantic, but model simulations indicate In terms of global tropical cyclone frequency, it was concluded25
that substantial proportions of the observed tropical Atlantic and that there was no significant change in global tropical storm or hur-
northwest tropical Pacific SST increases over the past half century ricane numbers from 1970 to 2004, nor any significant change in
arise from greenhouse warming 4. hurricane numbers for any individual basin over that period, except

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NaTurE gEosciENcE doi: 10.1038/ngeo779 review article
a Normalized tropical Atlantic indices
Change in power dissipation index (%)

500 Based on absolute SST (1946–2007)


Annual observed PDI
400 Five–year observed PDI Global mean temperature

Temperature
Five–year PDI based on observed absolute SST; r = 0.79
300 Statistical five-year PDI downscaling of
global climate models (1946–2100)

200 Individual model Tropical Atlantic (MDR) SST


Average of 24 models

100

Unadjusted counts
Tropical storms: unadjusted
0
High-resolution
model projections
Past Future
–100
Tropical storms: >2–day:
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
unadjusted
Year
b

Adjusted counts
Tropical storms: adjusted
Change in power dissipation index (%)

500 Based on relative SST (1946-2007)


Annual observed PDI
400 Five–year observed PDI
Five–year PDI based on observed relative SST; r = 0.79 Tropical storms: >2-day: adjusted
300 Statistical five-year PDI downscaling of
global climate models (1946–2100)
Individual model High-resolution
200 Average of 24 models model projections
US landfalling tropical storms

Landfall counts
(unadjusted)
100

0 US landfalling hurricanes
(unadjusted)
Past Future
–100
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year Year

Figure 1 | Past and extrapolated changes in atlantic hurricane power Figure 2 | Tropical atlantic indices. Green-shaded curves depict global
dissipation index (PDi). Anomalies are regressed onto a, tropical mean temperature (HadCRUT3 data set) and August–October main
Atlantic SST or b, tropical Atlantic SST relative to tropical mean SST development region (MDR; 10° N–20° N, 80° W–20° W) SST anomalies
(1946–2007), and these regression models are used to statistically (HadISST data set). Blue-shaded curves represent unadjusted tropical
estimate the PDI from several climate models. Anomalies are per-cent storm counts. Red-shaded curves include time-dependent adjustments
change relative to 1981–2000 average (2.13 x 1011 m3 s–2). The green bar for missing storms based on ship-track density20,22. The curve labelled
denotes approximate range of the PDI anomaly predicted by the statistical/ ‘>2-day’ depicts storms with a duration greater than 2.0 days22. Orange-
dynamical calculations of ref. 11. The green circle, star and diamond denote shaded curves depict US landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes (no
approximate values suggested by high-resolution dynamical models (refs adjustments). Solid black lines are five-year means (1878–2008); dashed
12, 10 and 13 respectively). SST region is 20° W–70° W, 7.5° N–22.5° N. black lines are linear trends. Vertical axis ticks represent one standard
Figure reproduced with permission from ref. 9 (© 2008 AAAS). deviation. Series normalized to unit standard deviation. Only the top three
series have significant linear trends (p = 0.05). Figure reproduced with
for the Atlantic (discussed above). Landfall in various regions of permission from refs 20 (© 2008 AMS) and 22 (© 2009 AMS).
East Asia26 during the past 60 years, and those in the Philippines27
during the past century, also do not show significant trends. coupled climate models to adequately simulate the changes in
Thus, considering available observational studies, and after large-scale conditions that affect cyclone development. Care must
accounting for potential errors arising from past changes in observ- be taken in interpreting results from regional models, as the use
ing capabilities, it remains uncertain whether past changes in of small domains or spectral nudging across the regional domain
tropical cyclone frequency have exceeded the variability expected constrains the model to follow the conditions imposed from the
through natural causes. driving large-scale model.
The general convergence of frequency projections from differ-
Projection. Progress has been made in developing dynamical ent approaches (Supplementary Table S1), in conjunction with the
and statistical/dynamical models for seasonal tropical cyclone hindcasting tests illustrated in Fig. 3, is beginning to provide some
frequency. Such models include: global coupled climate confidence in global and hemispheric projections of tropical cyclone
models13,28; relatively high-resolution atmospheric models frequencies. However, confidence in these projections remains very
running over observed or projected SST distributions10,29,30; low for individual basins (Supplementary Table S1), owing to uncer-
regional climate models used to downscale solutions from glo- tainties in the large-scale patterns of future tropical climate change,
bal coupled models12,31; and new statistical/dynamical techniques as evident in the lack of agreement between the model projections
aimed at avoiding the limitations on intensity simulations in of patterns of tropical SST changes29 as well as remaining limitations
dynamical models11. Many of these models reproduce key aspects in the downscaling strategies.
of observed past tropical cyclone variability when forced with Based on existing modelling studies (Supplementary Table S1)
historical variations in boundary conditions, such as SSTs or, in and limited existing observations, we judge that it is likely that
the case of regional models, by the SSTs and large-scale atmos- global mean tropical-cyclone-frequency will either decrease or
pheric winds, moisture and temperature distributions from remain essentially unchanged owing to greenhouse warming. Late-
atmospheric reanalyses (Fig. 3). But such tropical-cyclone-fre- twenty-first-century model projections indicate decreases ranging
quency simulations are highly dependent on the ability of global from −6 to −34% globally, with a comparatively more robust

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review article NaTurE gEosciENcE doi: 10.1038/ngeo779
as well as areas of increased vertical shear in global model Southern
a
Tropical storms (annual)
25 Model ensemble
Hemisphere projections29,34. For individual basins, there is much
Observed
more uncertainty in projections of tropical cyclone frequency,
20
with changes of up to ±50% or more projected by various models.
15

10 tropical cyclone intensity


Detection and attribution. Future surface warming and changes
5
in the mean thermodynamic state of the tropical atmosphere, as
0
1990
projected by climate models, will lead, according to theory35,36 and
1980 1985 1995 2000 2005
modelling10,37, to an increase in the upper limits of the distribution
b 14
of tropical cyclone intensities. High-resolution models project an
Hurricanes (Aug.–Oct.)

12 Model ensemble
increase in both the mean intensities (Supplementary Table S2) and
10 Observed
in the frequency of cyclones at higher intensity levels13,38. Such shifts
8
are observed in the best track records of global tropical cyclone
6 intensities, but these records are known to have substantial hetero-
4 geneities, which can also manifest themselves as a shift towards
2 stronger storms. A substantial global increase (nearly doubling) in
0 the number of the most severe tropical cyclones (Category 4 and 5 on
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 the Saffir–Simpson scale) has been reported25 from 1975 to 2004.
c Other studies contested this finding, based on concerns about data
28
quality39,40 and the short record-length relative to multidecadal vari-
Number of tropical storms

Model ensemble
24
Observed ability41 in the northwest Pacific. Analyses of globally consistent
20 satellite-based intensity estimates since 1981 indicate that trends in
16 the best track-data are indeed inflated42, but do support an increase
12 globally in the intensities of the strongest tropical cyclones43.
8 The new satellite-based intensity data42,43 were designed to be
4 more homogeneous than the existing global data, but still carry
0
uncertainties, particularly in the Indian Ocean where the satel-
1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 lite record is less consistent43. The short time period of the data
d 18 does not allow any definitive statements regarding separation of
16 Model ensemble anthropogenic changes from natural decadal variability or the
Number of hurricanes

14 Observed existence of longer-term trends and possible links to greenhouse


Ensemble spread warming. Furthermore, intensity changes may result from a sys-
12
10 tematic change in storm duration, which is another route by which
8 the storm environment can affect intensity that has not been
6
studied extensively.
4
The intensity changes projected by various modelling studies of
the effects of greenhouse-gas-induced warming (Supplementary
2
Table S2) are small in the sense that detection of an intensity change
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 of a magnitude consistent with model projections should be very
Year unlikely at this time37,38, given data limitations and the large interan-
nual variability relative to the projected changes. Uncertain relation-
Figure 3 | simulated versus observed atlantic tropical cyclone ships between tropical cyclones and internal climate variability,
interannual variability (approximately 1980–2006) using several including factors related to the SST distribution, such as vertical
methods. a, Tropical storm counts using a statistical/dynamical wind shear, also reduce our ability to confidently attribute observed
downscaling method and atmospheric reanalyses and observed SSTs intensity changes to greenhouse warming. The most significant
as input. Reproduced with permission from ref. 11 (© 2008 AMS). cyclone intensity increases are found for the Atlantic Ocean basin43,
b, Hurricane counts (August–October) using a regional climate-model but the relative contributions to this increase from multidecadal
downscaling method and data from observed SSTs and interior spectral variability44 (whether internal or aerosol forced) versus greenhouse-
nudging to atmospheric reanalyses. Reproduced from ref. 12 (© 2008 forced warming cannot yet be confidently determined.
NPG). c, Tropical storm counts using an ~100-km grid global model and
only observed SSTs. Reproduced with permission from ref. 30 (© 2008 Projection. Some increase in the mean maximum wind speed
AMS). d, Hurricane counts using a 50-km grid global model and only of tropical cyclones is likely with projected twenty-first century
observed SSTs. Reproduced with permission from ref. 29 (© 2009 AMS). warming, although increases may not occur in all tropical regions.
Dashed lines (a,b,d) are linear trends (colour-matched to time series). This conclusion has been supported by theories of potential
Future projections of tropical storm frequency using methods a, b and d are intensity35,36 and by further modelling studies (Supplementary
included in Supplementary Table S1. Information S2 and Supplementary Table S2) that have more real-
istic simulations of intensity as the horizontal resolution of the
decrease for the Southern Hemisphere mean counts than for the model is increased. Studies based on potential intensity theory
Northern Hemisphere mean counts. Among the proposed mecha- and the higher resolution (<20-km grid) models project mean
nisms for the decrease in global tropical cyclone frequency is a global maximum wind speed increases of +2 to +11% (roughly
weakening of the tropical circulation13,32 associated with a decrease +3 to +21% central pressure fall; Supplementary Information S2)
in the upward mass flux accompanying deep convection33, or an over the twenty-first century. At the individual basin scale, exist-
increase in the saturation deficit of the middle troposphere11. The ing multimodel ensemble mean projections show a range of inten-
more robust decrease in the Southern Hemisphere may be due to sity changes from about −1 to +9%. For some individual basins,
smaller increases in SST compared with the Northern Hemisphere projections based on single models can indicate larger increases or

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NaTurE gEosciENcE doi: 10.1038/ngeo779 review article
decreases, and projections vary over a range of the order of ±15% or a
more. Most of these models can say little about major hurricanes, 1
Reynolds
which require higher resolution for adequate simulation. In some HadiSST
cases10,11,45 the reported time-slice or downscaling experiments are

Fractional change in hurricane frequency


based on such a short record from the host climate model that the
0.5
projection — particularly for individual basins — may be largely
representing internal variability, rather than the forced signal of
interest. Decreased potential intensity is projected from theory
for some individual basins/individual model combinations, par- 0
ticularly using Emanuel’s reversible ascent formulation of poten-
tial-intensity theory, which shows a less positive sensitivity to
the projected climate warming than Emanuel’s pseudoadiabatic
–0.5
or Holland’s potential-intensity formulations (Supplementary
Information S2 and Supplementary Table S2).
There is a clear tendency among the models, particularly
at higher resolution (60-km grid spacing or less), to project –1
an increase in the frequency of the stronger tropical cyclones ENSEMBLE CM2.1 HADCM3 ECHAM5
(Supplementary Tables S1 and S2), although the actual intensity
level of these strong model cyclones varies between the models, b
50
depending on model resolution and other factors. These increases CCSM3
are typically projected to be substantial in fractional terms. Even 40 CNRM
CSIRO
a relatively small shift or expansion of the intensity distribution of 30 ECHAM
storms towards higher intensities can lead to a relatively large frac- GFDL

100*log(A1B/CTR) (%)
MIROC
tional increase in the occurrence rate of the strongest (rarest) trop- 20
MRI
ical cyclones12,38. For example, a recent downscaling study38 using
10
an operational (9-km grid) hurricane prediction model shows a
tendency towards increased frequency of Atlantic Category 4 and 0
5 hurricanes over the twenty-first century. We judge that a sub-
–10
stantial increase in the frequency of the most intense storms is
more likely than not globally, although this may not occur in all –20
tropical regions. Our confidence in this finding is limited, since –30
the model-projected change results from a competition between
the influence of increasing storm intensity and decreasing overall –40 10.3% –2.2% 19.1% -5.8% –13.8%
storm frequency. –50
Although such changes were not noted in several relatively low- Atlantic East Pacific West Pacific North Indian Southern
resolution simulations, these models are less reliable for investigat- Hemisphere
ing the most intense cyclones. As an example, it was found that, for
one series of models, a resolution of ~60 km was needed before a Figure 4 | sensitivity of projected tropical cyclone activity to different
warming-related intensification was simulated13. climate models providing downscaling conditions. a, Projected fractional
Further studies are needed to evaluate model projections of change in North Atlantic hurricanes (late twenty-first century) using
intensity changes, for example, by comparing model simulations of a global atmospheric model to downscale SST projections from three
the interannual variability of intensities to observations38. As there individual climate models or from an 18-model ensemble. The two
is a suggestion in existing studies that climate-warming-induced projections for each case (red and blue) used different controls based on
increases of intensity are larger in higher resolution models than different observed SST data. The vertical bars denote 90% confidence
in coarse-grid models13, it is plausible that existing models may intervals. Reproduced with permission from ref. 29 (© 2009 AMS).
systematically underestimate future intensity trends. The future b, Approximate percentage change in tropical cyclone power dissipation in
characteristics of intense tropical cyclones (Category 3–5) deserve various tropical storm basins projected for the late twenty-second century
particular attention, as these storms historically have accounted for using a statistical/dynamical downscaling framework forced with climate
an estimated 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing change statistics from seven global models. The change here is given as
only 24% of US landfalling tropical cyclones5. Further studies with 100 multiplied by the logarithm of the ratio of the twenty-second- (A1B)
finer resolution models hopefully will increase our confidence in and twentieth-century power dissipation (see ref. 11). Reproduced with
future projections of tropical cyclone intensity and the frequency of permission from ref. 11 (© 2008 AMS).
very intense cyclones.
related rainfall has not been established by existing studies.
tropical cyclone rainfall Satellite-based studies report an increase in the occurrence of
Detection and attribution. Atmospheric moisture content has heavy-rain events, generally in the tropics during 1979–2003
increased in recent decades in many regions46, and climate models (ref. 47), and also an increase during warm periods of interan-
are unanimous that the integrated water column in the tropics nual variability48. A number of studies of land-based precipitation
will increase, on average, as the atmosphere warms. The expecta- data have identified increasing trends in the frequency of very
tion is that as the water-vapour content of the tropical atmosphere heavy precipitation events2,3. None of these studies isolate tropical
increases, the moisture convergence for a given amount of mass cyclone precipitation rates.
convergence is enhanced. This should increase rainfall rates in sys-
tems (such as tropical cyclones) where moisture convergence is an Projection. Tropical-cyclone-related rainfall rates are likely to
important component of the water-vapour budget. An increase in increase with greenhouse warming. This is a robust projection in
storm-wind intensities would add to this moisture convergence. model simulations of tropical cyclones in a warmer climate: all seven
Despite this expectation, a detectable change in tropical-cyclone- available studies report substantial increases in storm-centred rainfall

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review article NaTurE gEosciENcE doi: 10.1038/ngeo779
rates (Supplementary Information S3 and Supplementary Table S3). would be expected to increase because of highly confident predic-
The range of projections for the late twenty-first century between tions that at least some future increase in sea level will occur2.
existing studies is +3 to +37%. The percentage increase is apparently
quite sensitive to the averaging radius considered, with the larger influence of uncertainty in large-scale projections
(smaller) sensitivities reported for the smaller (larger) averaging Uncertainties in model projections of future tropical cyclone activ-
radii. Typical projected changes are about +20% within 100 km of the ity arise owing to both uncertainties in how the large-scale tropical
storm centre. However, model resolution and complex physical proc- climate will change and uncertainties in the implications of these
esses near the storm centre place a level of uncertainty on such pro- changes for tropical cyclone activity. Both of these uncertainties will
jections that is not easily quantified. Annually averaged rainfall from need to be addressed to increase confidence in regional and global
tropical cyclones could decrease if the impact of decreased frequency tropical cyclone projections.
of storms exceeds that of increased rainfall rates in individual storms, As an example of the large uncertainty remaining in tropi-
although this effect has not yet been quantified. cal cyclone projections regionally — due to differences between
global climate model projections used to force the downscaling
genesis, tracks, duration and surge flooding models — Fig. 4a shows results from downscaling experiments29,
Detection and attribution. There is no conclusive evidence that any in which a single global atmospheric model is forced with projec-
observed changes in tropical cyclone genesis, tracks, duration and tions of SST change from several global climate models. Although
surge flooding exceed the variability expected from natural causes. each of the global climate models project a substantial increase in
There are suggestions of observed storm-track and/or genesis-loca- tropical SSTs during the twenty-first century, important differences
tion changes in the Atlantic Ocean, and these have been offered as exist in the regional-scale details of their projections, which lead to
providing an explanation for the lack of increasing trends in US marked differences in the downscaled regional projections of tropi-
and Gulf Coast landfalling storms. Century-scale trend analyses of cal cyclone activity. Similarly sensitive results have been reported
Atlantic tropical-cyclone-track density indicates a decrease in storm- with other tropical cyclone downscaling approaches11,31,38 (for exam-
track density in the western part of the basin and near major land- ple, Fig. 4b and Supplementary Information S1and S2). The uncer-
falling regions, and an increase in the middle and eastern regions tainty in climate-model-projected SSTs and related variables can
of the basin20,49. However, according to recent studies of ship-track affect even the sign of the projected tropical cyclone activity change
density20 and storm occurrence by duration class22, at least some of in a given region.
the increases in the eastern Atlantic are likely attributable to observ-
ing-system changes; it is unlikely that the reduced numbers in the Progress summary and outlook
western region are strongly affected by such observing-system Since the previous World Meteorological Organization expert-team
changes. A long-term (century-scale) decrease in average tropical assessment of research on tropical cyclones and climate change6,
cyclone duration has been reported in the Atlantic basin20, associ- substantial progress has been achieved. Specific advances include
ated with a strong upward trend in short-duration (<2-day) storms new analyses of global data on hurricane intensity, and several
coupled with little change in longer-lived (>2-day) storms22. But the important studies of data quality issues in Atlantic tropical cyclone
observed increase in short-lived storms was interpreted22 as being records, which strongly affect conclusions about climate change
likely attributable largely to observing-system changes, rather than detection. Moreover, important progress has been made in higher
climate change. resolution global modelling that provides improved simulations of
Sea level has risen globally by about 0.17 m during the twentieth global storm frequencies and further support for theoretical expec-
century2, and sea-level changes have important regional differences tations for a globally averaged increase in tropical cyclone intensity
owing to various factors, both climate-change-related and other- and rainfall. Finally, dynamical and statistical/dynamical downscal-
wise. There also has been marked degradation of coastal wetlands ing tools for tropical cyclone activity have improved, and evalua-
and local variations in land subsidence arising from coastal tions of these tools have become more convincing.
development. However, a detectable increase in storm-surge flood- These improvements have encouraged us to raise our confidence
ing from tropical cyclones has not been established. levels concerning several aspects of cyclone-activity projections.
These include our assessment that tropical cyclone frequency is
Projection. We have low confidence in projections of changes in likely to either decrease or remain essentially the same. Despite this
tropical cyclone genesis-location, tracks, duration or areas of impacts, lack of an increase in total storm count, we project that a future
and existing model projections do not show dramatic large-scale increase in the globally averaged frequency of the strongest tropical
changes in these features. The vulnerability of coastal regions to cyclones is more likely than not — a higher confidence level than
tropical cyclone storm-surge flooding is expected to increase with possible at our previous assessment6.
future sea-level rise and coastal development, although this vulner- Importantly, although some statistical methods project very large
ability will also depend on future storm characteristics. increases of about 300% by the late twenty-first century in aggregate
Substantial impacts can occur in higher latitudes from tropical Atlantic hurricane activity (power dissipation), such dramatic pro-
cyclones that have undergone extratropical transition. Downscaled jected increases are not supported by existing downscaling models
model projections11 suggest that no significant increase or decrease or by alternative statistical methods9. Moreover, despite some sug-
of tropical cyclone duration should be expected to occur. Projections gestive observational studies, we cannot at this time conclusively
for the expansion of the subtropics in climate models2 indicate some identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data. A sub-
potential for the poleward movement of the average latitude of stantial human influence on future tropical cyclone activity cannot
transition, but no dynamical modelling studies have focused on this be ruled out, however, and could arise from several mechanisms
issue and we place low confidence in any assessments concerning (including oceanic warming, sea-level rise and circulation changes).
extratropical transition at this point. In the absence of a detectable change, we are dependent on a combi-
Changes in tropical cyclone storm-surge potential depend on nation of observational, theoretical and modelling studies to assess
future projections of sea-level rise — which are uncertain at the future climate changes in tropical cyclone activity. These studies are
global scale2 and in regional structure — as well as on storm char- growing progressively more credible, but still have many limitations,
acteristics. Even assuming no future changes in tropical cyclone as discussed in this review.
behaviour, storm-surge incidence from tropical cyclones, the most Given the important societal impacts of tropical cyclones and the
damaging aspect of tropical cyclone impacts in coastal regions, apparent sensitivity of these storms to details of regional and tropical

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© 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved


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18. Zhang, R. & Delworth, T. L. A new method for attributing climate variations The authors constitute an expert team established by the World Meteorological
over the Atlantic Hurricane Basin’s main development region. Geophys. Res. Organization to provide advice to national meteorological and hydrological serv-
Lett. 36, L06701 (2009). ices on tropical cyclones and climate change. T.K. and J.L.M. are co-chairs of this
19. Shanahan, T. M. et al. Atlantic forcing of persistent droughts in West Africa. team. J.L.M was supported by the West Australian Government Indian Ocean
Science 324, 377–380 (2009). Climate Initiative. The team wishes to thank the Sultanate of Oman and Sultan
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tropical cyclone activity. J. Clim. 21, 3580–3600 (2008). report (March 2009 in Muscat, Oman). We also thank our colleagues for several
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22. Landsea, C., Vecchi, G. A., Bengtsson, L. & Knutson, T. R. Impact author contributions
of duration thresholds on Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. J. Clim. All authors contributed equally to the assessments described in this report, and all
doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3034.1 (2009). contributed to the writing, with T.K. being the lead author.
23. Landsea, C. W. et al. A reanalysis of the 1911–20 Atlantic hurricane database.
J. Clim. 21, 2138–2168 (2008). additional information
24. Mann, M. E., Woodruff, J. D., Donnelly, J. P. & Zhang, Z. Atlantic hurricanes The authors declare no competing financial interests. Supplementary information
and climate over the past 1,500 years. Nature 460, 880–883 (2009). accompanies this paper on www.nature.com/naturegeoscience.

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