Poisson Distribution

Poisson
Distribution
By: Engr. Mark Joren M. Crisologo
Poisson
Distribution
The Poisson distribution is a probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given
number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, given the average rate of
occurrence. The probability mass function of the Poisson distribution is given by the formula:
where λ is the average rate of occurrence and x is the number of event.
It helps us figure out how likely it is for a certain number of events to happen in a specific
amount of time or space, when we know how often these events usually happen on average.
Example # 1
At a Major League Baseball park, five customers arrive at a concession stand on
average in a ten-minute period.
a.) What is the probability that in a ten-minute period exactly three people will arrive
at the concession stand?
b.) Find the probability of 3 or fewer customers arriving in 20 minutes?
d.) Find the probability of more than 3 customers arriving in 20 minutes?
Ans: a.) 14.04% b.) 1.03% c.) 98.97%

Example # 2
A small business receives, on average, 8 calls per hour.
a.) What is the probability that the business will receive exactly 7 calls in 1 hour?
b.) What is the probability that the business will receive, at most, 5 calls in one hour?
c.) What is the probability that the business will receive more than 6 calls in one hour?
Ans: a.) 13.96% b.) 19.12% c.) 68.66%

Example # 3
Suppose that a computer program will make an average of 3 errors per 400 words of
translation. Suppose we randomly selects a 1,200 words passage translated by this program.
a.) Determine the probability that no errors will be found
b.) Calculate the probability that more than 14 errors will be found
c.) Find the probability that fewer than 9 errors will be found
Ans: a.) 0.012% b.) 4.15% c.) 45.57%

Normal
Distribution
The normal distribution, also known as the Gaussian distribution, is a type of probability
distribution that describes how data is spread out around the mean (average) value. In a
normal distribution, most of the data points cluster around the mean, and the farther away
you go from the mean, the fewer data points you find.
It's like a bell-shaped curve, where most of the data points are in the middle, around the
average, and fewer data points are at the extremes. This curve tells us the chances of getting a
certain value.
Normal Distribution
Example # 1
The test scores of EDAT class with 800 students are distributed normally with a mean of 75
and a standard deviation of 7.
a,) What percentage of the class has a test score between 68 and 82?
b.) Approximately how many students have a score between 61 and 89?
c.) What is the probability that a student chosen at random has a test score between 54 and
75?
d.) Approximately how many students have a test score greater than or equal 96?
Ans: a.) 68.26% b.) 764 students c.) 49.87% d.) 0.14%
Example # 2
A 100-watt light bulb has an average brightness of 1640 lumes, with a standard
deviation of 62 lumens.
a.) What is the probability that a 100-watt light bulb will have a brightness more than
1800 lumens?
b.) What is the probability that a 100-watt light bulb will have a brightness less than
1550 lumens?
c.) What is the probability that a 100-watt light bulb will have a brightness between
1600 and 1700 lumens?
Ans: a.) 0.49% b.) 7.35% c.) 57.62%

Example # 3
In a job fair sponsored by the 3 big companies, 2500 applicants applied for a job. Their
mean age was found to be 35 with a standard deviation of 5 years.
a.) What is the probability of the job applicants who are below 33 years old.
b.) How many applicants have ages between 28 and 44 years?
c.)Find the percentage of the applicants who are above 39 years old.
Ans: a.) 34.46% b.) 2208 c.) 21.19%

Example # 4
The length of a species of fish is normally distributed with mean of 5.3 cm and standard
deviation of 2.5. A fish is selected at random, what is the probability that its length is
a.) less than 4.5 cm
b,) between 3.6 cm and 5.9 cm
c.) greater than 6.4 cm?
d,) between 2.8 cm and 4.8 cm?
Ans: a.) 37.45% b.) 34.65% c.) 33% d.) 27.77%

Exponential
Distribution
The exponential distribution is another type of probability distribution that's often used in
statistics. It describes the time between events in a process where events happen
continuously and independently at a constant average rate. For example, the time between
arrivals of customers at a store or the time between radioactive decay events. The probability
density function of the exponential distribution gives us the likelihood of waiting a certain
amount of time before the next event happens, based on the average rate of events occurring.
It's a useful tool for modeling processes where events occur randomly over time.
Example # 1
Laptops produced by the company MJC last, on average, for 5 years. The life span of each
laptop follows aan exponential distribution.
a.) Calculate the rate of parameter.
b.) What is the probability that a laptop will last less than 3 years?
c.) What is the probability that a laptop will last more than 10 years?
d.) What is the probability that a laptop will last between 4 and 7 years
Ans: a.) 0.2 b.) 45.12% c.) 13.53% d.) 20.27%

Example # 2
In the last 40 years, there have been 200 earthquakes.
a.) What is the probability that there will be exactly 6 earthquakes in the next 2 years.
b.) What is the probability that there will be at least 3 months until the next earthquake?
c.) What is the probability that the next earthquake will occur between 2 and 5 months from
now.
Ans: a.) 6.31% b.) 28.65% c.) 31.01%

Example # 3
A power supply unit for a computer component is assumed to follow an exponential
distribution with a mean life of 1,200 hours. What is the probability that the
component will:
a.) fail in the first 300 hours?
b.) survive more than 1,500 hours?
c.) last between 1,200 hours and 1,500 hours?
Ans: a.) 22.12% b.) 28.65% c.) 8.14%

Homework # 6
1. In a cafe, the customer arrives at a mean rate of 2 per minute. Find the probability of arrival of 5
customers in 1 minute.
2. As only 3 students came to attend the class today, find the probability for exactly 4 students to attend
the class tomorrow.
3. The number of industrial injuries per working week in a particular factory is known to follow a Poisson
distribution with mean 0.5.
find the probability that
(a) In a particular week there will be less than 2 accidents
(b) In a particular week there will be more than 2 accidents
(c) In a three week period there will be no accidents
Homework # 6
4. Most graduate schools of business require applicants for admission to take the Graduate Management
Admission Council’s GMAT examination. Scores on the GMAT are roughly normally distributed with a
mean of 527 and a standard deviation of 112. What is the probability of an individual scoring above 500
on the GMAT?
5. The average number of acres burned by forest and range fires in a large New Mexico county is 4,300
acres per year, with a standard deviation of 750 acres. The distribution of the number of acres burned is
normal. What is the probability that between 2,500 and 4,200 acres will be burned in any given year?
6.The Edwards’s Theater chain has studied its movie customers to determine how much money they
spend on concessions. The study revealed that the spending distribution is approximately normally
distributed with a mean of $4.11 and a standard deviation of $1.37. What percentage of customers will
spend less than $3.00 on concessions?
Homework # 6
7. The number of days ahead travelers purchase their airline tickets can be modeled by an exponential
distribution with the average amount of time equal to 15 days.
a.) Find the probability that a traveler will purchase a ticket fewer than ten days in advance.
b.) How many days do half of all travelers wait?
8. On the average, a certain computer part lasts ten years. The length of time the computer part lasts is
exponentially distributed.
a.) What is the probability that a computer part lasts more than 7 years?
b.) On the average, how long would five computer parts last if they are used one after another?
c.) Eighty percent of computer parts last at most how long?
d.) What is the probability that a computer part lasts between 9- and 11 years?

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Poisson

where λ is the average rate of occurrence and x is the number of event.

Ans: a.) 14.04% b.) 1.03% c.) 98.97%

Ans: a.) 13.96% b.) 19.12% c.) 68.66%

Ans: a.) 0.012% b.) 4.15% c.) 45.57%

Ans: a.) 0.49% b.) 7.35% c.) 57.62%

Ans: a.) 34.46% b.) 2208 c.) 21.19%

Ans: a.) 37.45% b.) 34.65% c.) 33% d.) 27.77%

Ans: a.) 0.2 b.) 45.12% c.) 13.53% d.) 20.27%

Ans: a.) 6.31% b.) 28.65% c.) 31.01%

Ans: a.) 22.12% b.) 28.65% c.) 8.14%

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