MAY 2024

PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER
MONTHLY REPORT

APRIL 2024
NovemberChinese

Petrochemicals market - April 2024

The price movement of different petrochemical products varied in April 2024. The petrochemical
sector outlook for 2024f remains mixed as key global producers anticipate restocking to
commence with stable industrial activity in both China and USA. This is despite tensions in the
red sea impacting the European markets. In April 2024, average Benzene and PC prices increased
by 3.5% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively while Urea and MEG prices declined 12.3% mom and
3.2% mom, respectively. In April 2024, most of the Saudi petrochemical companies reported
better than expected set of results for Q1 24 led by low production cost despite increase in
feedstock prices.
• Global players feedback- Dow: According to the management, Dow expects higher PE
margins in the packaging and specialty segment led by rising exports demand, which will
positively impact profits by US$150mn in Q2 24. Moreover, improving macroeconomic
conditions in the USA followed by moderate recovery in industrial activity in China is
expected to drive growth. This will partially offset weak demand in Europe due to the
ongoing tensions in the Red Sea.
• Global players feedback- LyondellBasell: The company expects typical seasonal demand
coupled with a modest improvement in the global market in 2024. The domestic PE market
is expected to tighten owing to rising exports, but low ethane costs will help expand PE
margins. Despite some challenges, the company anticipates improving global economic
conditions (China exhibiting slow recovery), to support the petrochemical markets in 2024.
• Saudi players feedback- SIPCHEM: The company expects restocking to resume with PMI
indicator implying improving economic scenario in China. No major negative impact on
product pricing will support the business in the next few quarters. However, the outlook
remains uncertain, but the company is cautiously positive for H2 24.
• In April 2024, average Benzene, PC and PP prices increased by 3.5% mom (+10% yoy), 1.5%
mom (-0.8% yoy) and 0.7% mom (-2% yoy), respectively. HDPE-propane and PP-propane
spreads increased by 2.4% mom (-18.9% yoy) and 7.1% mom (-19.7% yoy), respectively. While
the average Urea, MEG and Methanol prices declined by 12.3% mom (+6.8% yoy), 3.2% mom
(+2.3% yoy) and 1.7% mom (-0.7% yoy), respectively.
Exhibit 1: Key product prices- monthly Exhibit 2: Key product prices- quarterly
Product Latest 1m Avg mom % yoy % Product Q1 24 Avg qoq % yoy %
PP 940 936 0.7 (2.0) PP 927 0.3 0.4
HDPE 980 984 (0.6) (2.6) HDPE 988 (0.1) 0.2
LLDPE 980 968 (0.1) (0.9) LLDPE 970 (0.1) 0.8
MEG 520 530 (3.2) 2.3 MEG 544 (0.8) 8.3
Methanol 294 297 (1.7) (0.7) Methanol 294 0.3 9.3
Urea 293 330 (12.3) 6.8 Urea 354 (2.2) 14.7
Benzene 1080 1,085 3.5 10.0 Benzene 1,034 1.6 16.3
PC 1,835 1,811 1.5 (0.8) PC 1,811 3.7 0.9
Aramco-Propane 615 615 (2.4) 10.8 Aramco-Propane 615 0.3 0.8
PP-Propane 325 321 7.1 (19.7) PP-Propane 312 0.5 (0.3)
PE-Propane 365 369 2.4 (18.9) PE-Propane 373 (0.8) (0.8)
Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research. As of 30 April 2024. Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research. As of 30 April 2024.

Exhibit 3: Other Petrochemical product prices – mtd

20.0
10.0 5.4
0.9 - - 1.7
-
(10.0) (0.7) (2.2) (4.2) Iyad Ghulam, CFA
Polyethyl
Ethylene

Polystyre
Butaine

LDPE

Styrene
Propylen

VAM

+966 11 874 7811

ene

[email protected]
ne

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research. As of 30 April 2024.

Please refer to the last page for important disclaimer www.alahlicapital.com

PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Local news summary

• SABIC AN reported a better-than-expected set of Q1 24 results with a net profit of
SAR841mn (-14.2% yoy, -14.0% qoq). This compares to the SNB Capital and consensus
estimates of SAR696mn and SAR713mn, respectively. Revenues were in-line with our
estimates, we believe the variance in earnings was mainly due to higher gross margins
(39.3% in Q1 24 vs our estimate of 31.3%), which might be attributed to lower production
expense during the maintenance period.
• Sipchem reported better than expected set of Q1 24 results with a net profit of SAR182mn
(-61.4% yoy, +14.4% qoq). This was slightly higher than the SNB Capital and consensus
estimates of SAR169mn and SAR170mn, respectively. The variance in the results came from
1) higher than expected revenues which stood at SAR1.93bn, vs our estimates of
SAR1.71bn which we believe is attributed to higher volumes or better than expected
realized prices, despite the maintenance shutdown at Al Waha facility, and 2) higher gross
margins of 24.9% vs our estimates of 23.2% which we believe is related to lower costs due
to the planned shutdown of Al Waha and operational efficiency.
• Yansab reported a better-than-expected set of Q1 24 results with a net profit of SAR100mn
vs a net loss of SAR370mn in Q1 23 and a profit of SAR18.5mn in Q4 23. This is the highest
bottom line since Q2 22 and is compared to the SNB capital and consensus estimates of
SAR90mn and SAR47.5mn, respectively. Although topline was lower than expected, we
believe the variance in earnings was attributed to lower than expected cost of production
despite the increase in ethane prices in Q1 24.
• Kayan reported a weaker than expected set of Q1 24 results with a net loss of SAR572mn
vs losses of SAR673mn and SAR622mn in Q1 23 and Q4 23, respectively. The trend in losses
continued for the 7th quarter in a row and is compared to the SNB Capital and consensus
estimates of losses of SAR477mn and SAR512mn, respectively. We believe that higher than
expected losses were due to 1) lower than expected revenues which came in at SAR1.98bn
vs our estimates of SAR2.23bn, which is attributed to lower than expected sales volumes or
selling prices and 2) higher than expected gross loss margins of 13.9% vs our estimates of
6.7%. Overall, bottom-line improved as net loss recovered by SAR50mn and SAR101mn in
Q1 24 over Q4 23 and Q1 23, respectively.

Exhibit 4: Index tracker

Index re-based to 5000 as of October 2022

7,500

6,500 5,941

5,500 5,513
4,500
4,855
3,500

2,500

1,500
Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24

Brent TASI Materials TASI

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research; Index re-based to 5000 as of October 2022

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PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Global summary

Exhibit 5: Manufacturing PMI

US PMI Eurozone PMI China PMI
65
65 55
50.4
60 55.4 60 55.5
50
55 55
50 45 47.4
50
45
49.2 45.7 40
45 40
40 35 35
Apr/22

Apr/23

Apr/24
Oct/22

Oct/23

30

Apr/22

Apr/23
Oct/22

Oct/23

Apr/24
Apr/22

Apr/23
Oct/22

Oct/23

Apr/24
Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research

*A level above 50 indicates expansion

EIA forecast for 2024f-2025f

Exhibit 6: Oil and Natural Gas forecast

Variance over March - 2024
April 2024 STEO March 2024 STEO forecast (%)
yoy Change (%)
Forecast Forecast

2023 2024f 2025f 2023 2024f 2025f 2023 2024f 2025f 2023 2024f 2025f
Oil (mmbpd)
WTI Spot Average (US$/b) 77.6 83.7 82.5 77.6 82.1 80.3 (18.1)% 7.8% (1.5)% 0.0% 2.0% 2.7%
Brent Spot Average (US$/b) 82.5 88.5 87.0 82.5 87.0 84.8 (18.2)% 7.3% (1.7)% 0.0% 1.8% 2.6%
OPEC Production 26.9 26.9 27.3 26.9 26.5 27.1 (2.3)% (0.0)% 1.5% 0.0% 1.3% 0.6%
US Production 12.9 13.2 13.7 12.9 13.2 13.7 8.6% 2.2% 3.9% (0.0)% 0.1% 0.5%
Global Supply 101.8 102.6 104.6 101.8 102.2 104.2 1.8% 0.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4%
Global Demand 102.0 102.9 104.3 101.0 102.4 103.8 2.8% 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4%
Global Stock Drawdown (0.2) (0.3) 0.3 0.8 (0.3) 0.3 NM NM NM NM NM (1.7)%
Natural Gas (bcf)
Henry Hub Spot (US$/MMBtu) 2.5 2.2 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.9 (60.5)% (15.1)% 34.4% 0.0% (5.2)% (1.7)%
US Natural Gas Supply 103.8 103.6 104.9 103.8 103.4 104.4 4.2% (0.2)% 1.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4%
US Natural Gas Demand 89.2 89.9 89.2 89.2 89.7 89.3 0.7% 0.9% (0.8)% 0.0% 0.3% (0.1)%
US Natural Gas Inventory 2,891 3,208 3,179 2,891 3,205 3,176 (1.2)% 11.0% (0.9)% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Source: EIA STEO, SNB Capital Research

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PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Products performance

Exhibit 7: Relative product Spreads

US$/mt Last Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg %Yoy
Price Apr - Mar - Feb - Jan- Dec- Nov- Oct- Sep- Aug- Jul - Jun - May - Apr - Apr24
Apr 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 /Apr 23
WTI 83.9 84.7 80.6 76.8 74.0 72.2 77.4 85.9 89.3 81.5 73.6 70.4 71.7 79.2 6.9
Brent 89.5 89.2 84.8 81.6 79.3 77.5 82.0 89.1 92.4 85.2 80.1 75.1 75.8 83.1 7.3
Naphtha 710 704 710 679 668 666 644 666 704 659 586 546 599 677 4.0
Ethylene 880 894 906 913 856 843 853 870 830 795 737 752 856 907 (1.4)
Propylene 835 835 830 825 813 812 831 828 836 806 769 751 877 909 (8.1)
LLDPE 980 968.0 969 970 972 950 926 964 980 973 925 923 987 977 (0.9)
HDPE 980 984 990 990 987 968 964 1,002 1,010 995 944 950 999 1,010 (2.6)
LDPE 1,080 1,069 1,070 1,069 1,031 985 985 1,011 1,003 979 930 933 998 1,039 3.0
PP 940 936 930 920 920 920 930 935 919 890 872 874 941 955 (2.0)
Benzene 1,080 1,085 1,049 1,046 960 895 916 953 992 927 823 803 883 986 10.0
Methanol 294 297 302 295 282 287 281 280 285 271 256 241 269 299 (0.7)
Styrene 1,180 1,175 1,146 1,114 1,058 1,017 1,045 1,053 1,105 1,027 951 934 1,012 1,099 6.9
MEG 520 530 547 557 542 507 491 479 489 480 480 476 514 519 2.3
PVC 780 796 796 782 756 770 767 799 871 873 784 776 815 820 (3.0)
PS 1,360 1,334 1,270 1,230 1,185 1,210 1,250 1,250 1,220 1,172 1,127 1,179 1,280 1,309 1.9
Europe ethylene 845 855 889 864 748 738 768 736 778 668 640 723 855 978 (12.5)
Ammonia 278 271 305 328 425 466 550 550 431 330 244 207 245 295 (8.2)
Urea 293 330 376 376 333 351 386 408 380 387 322 286 330 309 6.8
EDC 325 337 356 367 357 355 322 315 292 262 291 365 337 325 3.7
China Butanol 1,076 1,080 1,096 1,199 1,216 1,194 1,046 1,142 1,330 1,158 1,044 978 1,118 1,095 (1.5)
Phenol 1,138 1,081 1,066 1,078 1,038 1,112 1,137 1,218 1,271 1,107 1,020 937 1,130 1,164 (7.1)
Acetone 1,201 1,079 1,028 1,023 1,023 969 949 1,036 1,014 955 820 747 916 943 14.4
Acetic Acid 435 435 416 443 433 452 423 521 625 471 412 389 428 442 (1.6)
Vinyl Acetate 849 854 1,000 1,027 999 862 822 994 959 928 860 849 905 1,019 (16.2)
Ethyl Acetate 831 838 865 902 912 936 914 992 1,046 945 913 892 939 945 (11.3)
Source: Bloomberg, Argaam, SNB Capital Research
PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Exhibit 8: Oil and Gas

1m (%) qtd (%) ytd (%)

10 9.1 10 9.1 20 14.3 14.0 11.2 6.6 4.3
5 5 0
1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.4
0.0 0.2 0.0
-20 (4.1)
0 0

-5 (1.5) (1.5) -40

-5 (34.9)

WTI

Brent

Arab Medium

Natural Gas
Arab Light

Propane
Naphtha
WTI
Natural Gas

Arab Light

Propane

Brent

Naphtha

Arab Medium

WTI
Natural Gas

Arab Light

Propane

Arab Medium
Brent

Naphtha
Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research

Exhibit 9: Petrochemicals
1m (%) qtd (%) ytd (%)
10 5.4 10 5.4 60 47.7
5 5 40
0 0 20
-5
-5 -2.8 0
(4.2) -10
-10 -20
HDPE
Polystyrene

Ethylene
Styrene
LLDPE

LDPE

Polyethylene

Butadiene

MEG
Benzene
Polypropylene

Propylene

Methanol CFR

HDPE
Polystyrene

Ethylene
Styrene
LDPE
LLDPE
Butadiene

Polyethylene
Methanol CFR

Polypropylene
MEG
Benzene

Propylene
PC

Ethylene
HDPE
Polystyrene

Styrene
LLDPE

LDPE

Polyethylene

MEG
VAM
Benzene
Polypropylene

Propylene

Methanol CFR
Butadiene

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research

Exhibit 10: Fertilizers

1m (%) qtd (%) ytd (%)
0 0 0
-5 -5 -10
-10 -10 (8.4) (9.3)
(8.4) (9.0) (8.4) (9.0) -20
-15 -15
-20 -30
-20
-25 (22.0) -25 -40 (34.7)
(22.0)

DAP Ammonia Urea DAP Ammonia Urea DAP Urea Ammonia

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research

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PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Key petrochemical prices and spread charts

Exhibit 11: Petrochemical prices

PP-Propylene (US$/mt) HDPE-Ethylene (US$/mt) LDPE-Ethylene (US$/mt)
1,050 940 1,200 1,300
980 1080
900 1,050 1,100
750 835 900
900 900
600 750 900
600 700
450
450 500
300 300 300
Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24
Propylene Polypropylene HDPE Ethylene LDPE Ethylene

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research

Exhibit 12: Spreads

PP-Propylene (US$/mt) HDPE-Ethylene (US$/mt) LDPE-Ethylene (US$/mt)

400 200 400

-100
100
400
300 600
300 300 400
200 200 160
99 90 200
100
50 70 100 116 140 110 145
0 0
0
Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24
Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

-100 -200

PP-propylene 10 yr average HDPE-ethylene 10 yr average LDPE-ethylene 10 yr average

+1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV +1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV +1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research

Exhibit 13: Stock Prices vs Product Prices

Advanced-PP SABIC AN-Urea SABIC-Brent

230
280
250
230 180 158
210
170 136 180 130
130 130 105
80 99
90 83 80
50 78
30 30
Jan-15 Feb-18 Mar-21 Apr-24 Jan-15 Feb-18 Mar-21 Apr-24
Jan-15 Feb-18 Mar-21 Apr-24

PP Advanced Urea SABIC Agri-Nutrients Co Brent SABIC

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research
*Prices and Spreads are rebased to 100 as of Jan 2015.

6
PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Exhibit 14: Other Key Petrochemical Products

Benzene (US$/mt) Methanol (US$/mt)

1,400 500

1,200
400
1,000 950 276 291
1053
300
800
200
600

400 100

200 0
Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24
Benzene 10 year average Methanol 10 year average
+1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV +1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research

MEG (US$/mt) Styrene (US$/mt)

1,200 1,800

1,000 1,600

1,400
800 1190
1,200
600 529
1055
1,000
515
400
800

200 600
Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

Aug-23

Apr-24
Apr-23

Dec-23

MEG 10 year average Styrene 10 year average

+1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV +1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research

Urea (US$/mt)
Polystyrene (US$/mt)
2,000 700

1,800 600

1,600 500

1360 400
1,400
300 331 330
1,200 1290
200
1,000
100
800 0
Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

PS 10 year average Urea 10 year average

+1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV +1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research

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PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Exhibit 15: Relative product Spreads

Last Price Average Price
Apr-24 Apr-24 % mtd % qtd % ytd
HDPE-ethylene 100 89 11.1 11.1 (20.0)
LDPE-ethylene 200 175 17.6 17.6 37.9
LLDPE-ethylene 100 74 67 66.7 (4.8)
PP-propylene 105 101 10.5 10.5 (4.5)
HDPE-naphtha 270 280 (3.3) (3.3) (10.5)
LDPE-naphtha 370 366 3.0 3.0 15.1
PP-naphtha 230 233 4.9 4.9 (8.6)
PP-Propane (Aramco) 325 321 8.3 8.3 4.8
HDPE- Propane (Aramco) 365 369 1.4 1.4 1.4
Source: Bloomberg, Argaam, SNB Capital Research

Exhibit 16: HDPE-Propane spread, and PP-Propane spread increased by 2.4% and 7.1% mom, respectively.

PE-Propane (US$/mt) PP-Propane (US$/mt)

1,000 900
900 800
800
700
700
600 600
455
500 500 400
400 360 400 321
300
300
200
200
Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24
HDPE-Propane 10 year average
+1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV PP-Propane 10 year average
+1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research

Exhibit 17: HDPE-naphtha spread remained flat and PP-naphtha spreads increased by 5.8% mom.

PE-Naphtha (US$/mt) PP-Naphtha (US$/mt)

900
800
800
700 700
600 600
500
333 500
400
280
300 400
278
200 300 233
100
200
Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

Aug-23
Apr-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

PE-Naphtha 10 year average PP-naphtha 10 year average

+1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV +1/-1 STDEV +2/-2 STDEV

Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research Source: Bloomberg, SNB Capital Research

8
PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Performance and valuation

Exhibit 18: Industry – performance and valuation

Price chg (%) ttm (%) 2024f 2024f Div yld
Last price Mkt cap
Name Country Products EV/ 2024f
(Native) (SAR mn) 1m ytd ROE ROA P/E P/B
EBITDA %
Saudi Arabia
ALUJAIN Saudi Arabia PP 40.4 3,111 9.9 11.4 (2.9) (1.1) 12.9 47.3 1.0 3.4
SIPCHEM Saudi Arabia Diversified 34.1 25,153 9.4 0.7 5.5 NA 10.6 18.3 1.6 5.4
SABIC Saudi Arabia Diversified 83.5 253,500 7.9 1.2 0.7 1.2 11.4 37.5 1.5 4.1
Advanced Saudi Arabia PP 39.1 11,102 4.7 9.2 5.3 1.7 28.8 42.7 3.1 NA
MAADEN Saudi Arabia Diversified 48.6 186,804 3.3 4.2 3.4 1.5 20.8 63.6 3.8 NA
Yansab Saudi Arabia EG 38.1 21,797 2.6 1.8 (0.1) (0.1) 13.1 62.3 2.0 4.5
Kayan Saudi Arabia EG/LDPE 11.0 14,055 2.6 (14.5) (14.8) NA 12.0 NA 1.2 NA
Tasnee Saudi Arabia PP 12.4 9,365 0.6 13.1 1.8 0.9 13.7 22.6 0.9 1.2
SIIG Saudi Arabia Benzene 22.2 17,526 0.2 4.6 1.1 1.0 36.5 37.4 1.8 4.9
Rabigh Saudi Arabia PE/PP 10.3 12,599 0.1 (27.1) (36.4) (7.3) 15.7 NA 1.4 NA
CHEMANOL Saudi Arabia Methanol 20.2 1,140 (0.1) (16.3) (15.7) (10.3) 11.3 NA 1.0 NA
NAMA Saudi Arabia Resins 32.1 742 (1.4) (1.7) (49.2) (14.2) NA NA NA NA
SABIC AG Saudi Arabia Urea 138.2 55,125 (4.3) (16.2) 19.8 14.0 10.0 15.9 3.1 6.4
Average 2.7 (2.3) (6.3) (1.0) 15.1 26.7 1.7 2.3
Global
Solvay SA Belgium Diversified 27.7 12,878 18.8 6.0 (2.6) (0.2) 5.0 8.2 2.3 8.0
Industries Qatar Qatar PE/CS 13.1 76,237 2.5 (6.4) 13.2 12.3 16.7 15.3 1.9 6.1
Exxon Mobil Corp US Diversified 100.0 1,749,006 1.4 16.7 16.2 9.1 6.3 1.6 0.3 26.0
Petronas Chem Malaysia Diversified 7.2 42,647 0.0 (8.9) 4.3 3.0 10.4 21.5 1.3 2.8
OCI NV Netherlands Diversified 29.0 21,389 (1.3) (6.6) (48.0) (5.1) 8.0 69.3 4.9 6.9
Westlake Chemical US Diversified 21.7 2,888 (1.5) 1.0 19.0 24.9 3.8 13.6 NA 8.5
Arkema SA France Diversified 103.0 29,131 (1.6) (8.9) 6.1 3.0 6.1 10.6 1.0 3.8
Formosa Plastics Taiwan Diversified 79.2 50,163 (2.6) (18.6) 2.1 1.4 37.5 40.0 1.2 2.0
Mesaieed Petro Qatar Diversified 1.8 24,800 (3.3) 7.3 6.3 6.1 NA NA NA NA
Sumitomo Chem Japan Diversified 445.0 13,279 (4.5) (12.3) (13.2) (5.8) NA NA 0.6 2.9
Dupont DeNemour US Diversified 76.9 113,687 (5.4) (14.2) 1.9 1.3 12.4 20.8 1.3 2.1
Eastman Chemical US Diversified 89.8 41,671 (5.7) 4.4 17.2 6.2 8.8 12.2 1.9 3.4
CF Industries US Fertilizers 79.5 54,136 (7.6) (5.9) 28.3 13.3 7.4 12.7 2.3 2.5
Sasol Ltd South Africa Diversified 233.3 17,200 (8.0) (29.7) 1.9 0.9 3.2 3.2 0.4 5.2
BASF SE Germany Diversified 48.8 175,483 (8.2) (2.6) 0.1 0.2 7.6 13.8 1.3 6.8
Covestro AG Germany Polymers 52.7 35,516 (8.3) (13.8) (2.9) (1.4) 8.6 30.3 1.3 0.9
Yara International Norway Fertilizers 35.6 27,318 (10.2) (19.7) (0.5) (0.2) 5.7 12.4 0.9 4.8
Celanese Corp US Diversified 155.4 64,273 (10.6) 1.3 30.9 7.5 10.8 13.5 2.1 1.8
LG Chem Ltd South Korea Diversified 499000.0 76,921 (11.0) (24.9) NA NA NA NA NA NA
Lotte Chem South Korea PP/HDPE/EG 153200.0 12,449 (12.5) (34.7) (0.3) (0.1) 11.2 62.7 0.3 2.9
Braskem SA Brazil Resins 21.9 12,155 (21.5) (9.3) (80.9) (5.4) 7.5 NA 6.5 NA
(4.8) (8.6) (0.0) 3.4 8.4 17.2 1.5 4.6
Indices
S&P500 Chem US 889.6 (5.8) 1.1
Source: Tadawul, Reuters Eikon, SNB Capital Research
LC = Local currency, *Prices are as of 30 April 2024

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PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Product portfolio and capacities

Below are the Saudi listed petrochemical company’s product portfolios along with their capacity
and price movements.
.
Exhibit 19: Portfolio product and capacities
Capacity Planned Price mom Price ytd
(mn mt) Commissioning (%) (%)
Company Product of Capacity
SABIC
Ethylene 7.185 on-stream (2.2) 4.1
Methanol 4.129 on-stream (0.3) 4.3
Gases 4.100 on-stream
PE 4.095 on-stream 0.0 6.1
MEG 3.505 on-stream
MTBE 3.308 on-stream 0.0 (1.2)
Urea 3.105 on-stream (22.0) 9.3
Long Steel 2.702 on-stream
Ammonia 2.451 on-stream (9.0) (34.7)
Flat Steel 1.154 on-stream
Styrene 1.074 on-stream 1.7 14.0
Propylene 0.870 on-stream 0.0 3.1
Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) 0.827 on-stream
PP 0.774 on-stream 1.1 2.2
Caustic Soda 0.632 on-stream
Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) 0.434 on-stream
MEG 0.415 on-stream (2.8) 2.0
Benzene 0.374 on-stream 1.4 18.7
DEG 0.332 on-stream
Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) 0.298 on-stream
Phosphate, compound and liquid 0.256 on-stream
Paraxylene 0.252 on-stream
PS 0.174 on-stream 5.4 17.2
2-Ethylene Hexanol (2EH) 0.166 on-stream
Butane 0.151 on-stream
Butadiene 0.121 on-stream (0.7) 47.7
Pyrolysis Gasoline 0.117 on-stream
Sulphuric Acid 0.097 on-stream
Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) Resin 0.079 on-stream
CIE (crude industrial ethanol) 0.070 on-stream
Textile Chips 0.051 on-stream
Dioctyle Phthalate (DOP) 0.029 on-stream
Melamine 0.021 on-stream
Tri Ethylene Glycol (TEG) 0.018 on-stream
Urea Formaldehyde 0.013 on-stream
Polyester Fibers 0.008 on-stream
LDPE 0.400 on-stream 0.9 9.1
Methyl methacrylate 0.250 on-stream
Polymethyl methacrylate 0.030 on-stream
Polyacetal 0.050 on-stream
Polyethylene 0.230 on-stream
PetroRabigh
Petroleum Products 17.300 on-stream
Ethylene 1.250 on-stream (2.2) 4.1
Propylene 0.900 on-stream 0.0 3.1
LDPE 0.350 on-stream 0.9 9.1
LLDPE 0.250 on-stream 2.0 6.2
HDPE 0.300 on-stream (1.0) 1.0
MEG 0.600 on-stream
PP 0.700 on-stream 1.1 2.2
Polypropylene Oxide 0.200 on-stream

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PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024
Exhibit 19: Portfolio product and capacities
Capacity Planned commissioning Price Price ytd
(mnmt) of Capacity mom (%)
Company Product (%)
SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company (SAFCO)
Urea 5.141 on-stream (22.0) (9.3)
Ammonia 3.821 on-stream (9.0) (34.7)
Others 1.100 on-stream
Saudi Kayan
Ethylene 1.571 on-stream (2.2) 4.1
Propylene 0.630 on-stream 0.0 3.1
LDPE 0.300 on-stream 0.9 9.1
HDPE 0.420 on-stream (1.0) 1.0
MEG 0.653 on-stream
PP 0.350 on-stream 1.1 2.2
PC 0.260 on-stream
Acetone 0.135 on-stream
Benzene 0.109 on-stream 1.4 18.7
Ethanolamines & Ethoxylates 0.140 on-stream
Bisphenol A 0.240 on-stream
Phenol 0.220 on-stream
Cumene 0.290 on-stream
Ethylene oxide 0.611 on-stream
Synthetic/Natural Alcohol- Detergent grade 0.050 on-stream
n-Butanol 0.330 on-stream
Iso-Butanol 0.011 on-stream
Yansab
Ethylene 1.300 on-stream (2.2) 4.1
Propylene 0.400 on-stream 0.0 3.1
MEG 0.850 on-stream
Di Ethylene Glycol (DEG) 0.065 on-stream
Tri Ethylene Glycol (TEG) 0.005 on-stream
PP 0.400 on-stream 1.1 2.2
HDPE 0.400 on-stream (1.0) 1.0
LDPE 0.400 on-stream 0.9 9.1
Benzene 0.170 on-stream 1.4 18.7
Butane 0.115 on-stream
Benzene-Toluene and Xylene (BTX) 0.070 on-stream
MTBE 0.020 on-stream 0.0 (1.2)
Sipchem
Methanol 1.000 on-stream (0.3) 4.3
Carbon Monoxide 0.345 on-stream
Butanediol 0.075 on-stream
Acetic Acid 0.460 on-stream
Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) 0.330 on-stream
Ethyl Acetate 0.100 on-stream
Semi-Conductive Outer & Inner Shield Compounds 0.025 on-stream
EVA 0.004 on-stream
EVA/LDPE 0.200 on-stream
Polybutylene Terephthalate (PBT) 0.063 on-stream
Plastic Moulds 0.001 on-stream
Ethylene 1.010 on-stream
PE 0.800 on-stream
Propylene 0.752 on-stream
PP 0.450 on-stream
Chlorine 0.227 on-stream
Caustic Soda 0.250 on-stream
Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) 0.300 on-stream
n-Butanol 0.330 on-stream
Iso-Butanol 0.011 on-stream

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PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Exhibit 19: Portfolio product and capacities

Capacity Planned Price mom Price ytd
(mnmt) commissioning (%) (%)
Company Product of Capacity
SIIG
Benzene 0.835 on-stream 1.4 18.7
Cyclohexane 0.290 on-stream
Motor Gasoline 0.780 on-stream
Styrene 0.730 on-stream 1.7 14.0
Propylene 0.150 on-stream 0.0 3.1
Ethylene 1.220 on-stream (2.2) 4.1
HDPE/LLDPE 1.100 on-stream (1.0) 1.0
Propylene 0.440 on-stream 0.0 3.1
PP 0.400 on-stream 1.1 2.2
1-Hexene 0.100 on-stream

Tasnee
Ethylene 1.010 on-stream (2.2) 4.1
Propylene 0.740 on-stream
PP 0.720 on-stream 1.1 2.2
HDPE 0.400 on-stream (1.0) 1.0
LDPE 0.400 on-stream 0.9 9.1
n-Butanol 0.330 on-stream
Iso-Butanol 0.011 on-stream
Titanium sponge 0.015 on-stream

Advanced
Propylene 0.455 on-stream 0.0 3.1
PP 0.450 on-stream 1.1 2.2
Propylene 0.843 2024
PP 0.800 2024
Iso propanol 0.070 2024
Ethylene 1.115 2025
Propylene 0.85 2025
Aromatics 0.40 2025
Chemanol
Methanol 0.231 on-stream (0.3) 4.3
Pentaerythritol 0.020 on-stream
Dimethylformaldehyde (DMF) 0.060 on-stream
Methylamines 0.050 on-stream
Carbon Monoxide 0.033 on-stream
Acetaldehyde 0.012 on-stream
Formaldehyde 0.215 on-stream
Resins 0.014 on-stream
Hexamine 0.011 on-stream
Others 0.222 on-stream
SNF 0.035 on-stream
Alujain
PP 0.400 on-stream 1.1 2.2
PP Compounded 0.100 on-stream
Nama Chemicals
Epoxy resins 0.060 on-stream
Calcium Chloride NA on-stream

Source: Company, SNB Capital Research

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PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Appendix: 1

Exhibit 20: Commodity wrap-up

Name Latest 1 wk (%) 1m (%) qtd (%) ytd (%) ttm (%) 5yr high 5yr low 10 yr
Avg
Oil and Gas
WTI 81.9 (2.7) (1.5) (1.5) 14.3 14.8 124 (37.6) 68.7
Brent 87.9 (0.2) 0.4 0.4 14.0 16.7 128 19.3 73.1
Arab Light 89.5 (0.5) 1.3 1.3 11.2 17.3 134 13.3 74.4
Arab Medium 83.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 7.5 124 (27.8) 70.8
Natural Gas Henry Hub (US$ MMBtu) 1.7 5.0 9.1 9.1 (34.9) (9.2) 16.4 1.2 3.4
Naphtha 713 0.5 0.2 0.2 6.6 19.9 1,161 170 609
Propane 615 0.1 0.8 0.8 (4.1) 16.1 1,001 241 583
Aramco Propane 615 (2.4) (2.4) (2.4) 0.8 10.8 940 230 565
Petrochemicals
Methanol CFR China (US$ mt) 294 (4.2) (0.3) (0.3) 4.3 6.5 446 152 281
Benzene (US$ mt) 1,080 (0.9) 1.4 1.4 18.7 21.3 1,450 295 833
Ethylene (US$ mt) 880 (1.1) (2.2) (2.2) 4.1 1.1 1,360 345 878
Polystyrene (US$ mt) 1,360 0.0 5.4 5.4 17.2 3.0 1,610 830 1,261
Polyethylene (US$ mt) 1,040 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 (2.8) 1,440 700 1,051
Polypropylene (US$ mt) 940 0.0 1.1 1.1 2.2 (1.6) 1,370 730 1,026
Propylene (US$ mt) 835 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 (6.7) 1,230 540 897
VAM (US$ mt) 849 (0.8) (4.2) (4.2) (13.9) (8.7) 2,738 696 1,297
PC (US$ mt) (China) 2,242 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) 2.2 (0.6) 5,128 892 2,753
MEG (US$ mt) 520 (1.9) (2.8) (2.8) 2.0 2.0 870 380 558
Butadiene (US$ mt) 1,425 (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) 47.7 52.4 1,655 305 971
Styrene (US$ mt) 1,180 (0.8) 1.7 1.7 14.0 15.1 1,510 550 1,042
LDPE (US$ mt) 1,080 0.0 0.9 0.9 9.1 6.9 1,760 750 1,147
LLDPE (US$ mt) 1,030 0.0 2.0 2.0 6.2 (1.0) 1,450 700 1,044
HDPE (US$ mt) 980 0.0 (1.0) (1.0) 1.0 (3.0) 1,310 700 1,007
Fertilizers
Ammonia Middle East (US$ mt) 278 (0.9) (9.0) (9.0) (34.7) 12.1 1,238 155 495
DAP Saudi (US$ mt) 504 (1.0) (8.4) (8.4) (8.4) (10.8) 1,158 288 541
Urea Middle East Granular (US$ mt) 293 (11.4) (22.0) (22.0) (9.3) (11.6) 995 214 421
Indices
TASI Materials 6,378 3.9 3.5 3.5 0.4 (2.1) 8,980 3,466 6,216
TASI 12,395 0.3 (0.1) (0.1) 3.6 11.5 13,820 5,960 10,186
S&P500 Chem 890 (0.3) (5.8) (5.8) 1.1 7.0 944 402 761

Source: SNB Capital Research; *Prices are as on 30 April 2024

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PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER SNB CAPITAL

MAY 2024

Appendix: 2

Exhibit 22: Petrochemicals flowchart

Chemicals and Intermediates Products Uses

Petrochemical Feedstock MDI/TDI Polyester Clothing, Bottles, Fabric

Toluene PTA Nylon Fabric, Carpet, Automotive
Xylene Cyclohexane Phenol/Acetone Solvents, Intermediate
Refinery
Benzene Cumene Epoxies/Resins Plastics, Adhesives, Coating
Crude Oil Naphtha
Styrene Polystyrene Packaging Foam, Insulation

Butadiene Elastomers/ABS Plastic, Synthetic Rubber

Acrylonitrile Acrylic Fibers Clothing

LPG Propylene Oxide Polyurethanes Foam Insulation, Furniture, Auto

Propylene
Fractionator Ethane Acrylics Coating Ingredient, Adhesives
Natural
Gas Polypropylene Plastic, Packaging, Durables
Propane
Ethylene Oxide Ethylene Glycol Antifreeze, Intermediate
Butane
Ethylene Polyethylene Plastic, Packaging, Durables

EVA/Acetyls Adhesives, Coating Ingredient

Acetylene VAM Adhesives, Intermediate

Acetic Acid EDC/VCM/PVC Plastics, Construction

Methanol
Syngas Methanol Fuel Blending, Intermediate
Coal MTBE Gasoline Blending

Ammonia Intermediate, Nitrogen, Fertilizer

Ammonia DAP/MAP/PHOS Phosphate Fertilizer

Urea/UAN Urea/UAN Nitrogen Fertilizer

Source: GPCA, Petrochemistry, SNB Capital Research

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PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER

MAY 2024

Important information SNB CAPITAL

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PETROCHEMICAL TRACKER

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