Uncertainty Calculation Tool
Uncertainty Calculation Tool
Uncertainty Calculation Tool
This file demonstrates a process for applying uncertainty assessment to product GHG
inventories under the Greenhouse Gas Protocol. While no aspects of this spreadsheet serve as
components of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol Product Standard, the sheet is intended to serve
as a complement to the supplementary material supplied for conducting uncertainty
assessments. A wide number of methods might be applied to represent uncertainty in product
inventories in compliance with the guidance of the standard. The approach presented here is
meant only to serve as guidance for those practitioners seeking assistance with a feasible
method for making such calculations and is not intended to represent preference within the
protocol for any given method.
This file has been prepared by Quantis as part of a contract to the World Business Council for
Sustainable Development and World Resources Institute. Questions should be directed to:
Quantis US
[email protected]
617-500-7152
Salem, Massachusetts
Follow the workflow described below to ues this file. Example data has been entered to
represent a sample product inventory for a toner cartridge. When using the file to represent
another product, data regarding the toner cartridge must be replaced by data regarding the
product being assessed. The following discussion is organized by the titles of pages within the
file, moving from left to right.
Notes
Tracking sources of uncertainty is a process that should be done throughout the course of
conducting a product GHG inventory. Throughout setting the project scope, collecting
information and performing analysis, a wide variety of information is addressed and decisions
are made that lead to potential uncertainties. The Notes page provides a template for tracking
these uncertainty sources while the product inventory is being compiled and then for keeping
additional notes regarding practitioners qualitative assessments of the relative importance of
uncertainty sources. This information could be included in a product GHG inventory report.
Info
The Info page provides general information that can be changed by the user to modify such
things as the names of the product, the functional unit, default values used within the data
quality assessment, and the parameters assumed in applying the pedigree matrix to quantify
uncertainty from the data quality ratings.
Calculations
The Calculations page includes a table in which the user can enter the information regarding
their product inventory and apply their data quality assessment. The formulas on this page
tabulate a quantitative uncertainty measure based on the user's input. These results are
displayed in the figure tabs listed below. Specific instructions and descriptions of each step are
listed across the page in the second row of the sheet. Required inputs appear with a green
header, while optional inputs appear with a blue header. Columns with grey cells and headers
are not intended to be editted by the user. The required user inputs include a list of the
materials or activities for which their product life cycle has activity data to enter, as well as the
emission factors and activity data associated with each. The file is set up to allow four
alternative scenarios to be assessed, each with the same categories and emission factors but
with differing activity data. These can be used to assess scenario uncertainty. As the user
adjusts the data quality ratings for the emission factor data and activity data for each material or
activity category, the calculation of total uncertainty is updated. Space is provided for the user
to list data attributes, such as geographic and temporal coverage, to facilitate rating the quality
of each dataset. As part of the calculation of uncertainty in the inventory, intermediate steps
compute the percent contribution of each activity category to the total result, as well as the
contribution of each to the uncertainty in the total result. These columns might be referred to by
the user to identify those areas of their inventory most responsible for the uncertainty.
Functional Unit 50,000 Pages Printed Total Life Cycle GHG Inventory (Kg CO2e) per 50,000 Page
Pedigree Matrix
Indicator score Very Good Good Fair Poor
Reliability 1 1.1 1.2 1.5
Completeness 1 1.05 1.1 1.2
Temporal representativeness 1 1.1 1.2 1.5
Geographical representativeness 1 1.02 1.05 1.1
Technological representativeness 1 1.2 1.5 2
data used
obtained
Emission Factor Data 1c:which
Inventory Category
Emission Factor
Dataset Name
Geographic
Relevance
Source
Name
Heavy Truck Transport, lorry, >16t, fleet average Ecoinvent 2.01 RER
Aluminum Ecoinvent 2.01,
Aluminum, from primary materials adapted RER
Copper
Copper, primary, at refinery Ecoinvent 2.01 GLO
Steel
Steel, converter, chromium steel 18/8, at plant Ecoinvent 2.01 RER
Polystyrene
polystyrene, general purpose, GPPS, at plant Ecoinvent 2.01 RER
Nylon
nylon 6, at plant Ecoinvent 2.01 RER
PVC
PVC, granulate, at plant Ecoinvent 2.01 RER
Polyurethane Ecoinvent 2.01,
polyurethane, flexible foam, at plant adapted RER
Corrugated Board Corrugated board, fresh fiber, single wall, printed
color Ecoinvent 2.01 RER
Paper, packaging
paper, woodfree, coated, at regional storage Ecoinvent 2.01 RER
LDPE Ecoinvent 2.01,
LDPE, granulate, at plant adapted RER
Paper, Use paper, woodfree, coated, at regional storage Ecoinvent 2.01 RER
ollowing example data to specific data for the given product or process. See instruction tab for more deta
on Factors
factor
Unit
1.267
2.089
1.267
1.359
4.759
4.568
9.211
3.489
5.184
3.489
12.25
entered
0.03717
0.03717
0.03717
0.005247
% GWP from other 1j. Determine the sensitivity for
gases other gases
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.04189
0.04440
0.04440
0.04440
1k. Determine the total GWP per
GWP per unit unit (Kg CO2e per unit)
1.267
2.089
1.267
1.359
4.759
4.568
9.211
3.489
5.184
3.489
12.25
0.1252
0.8372
0.8372
0.8372
2a. Enter activity data for the
50
30 Baseline Activity baseline scenario (units
2.81
63.00
10.00
correspond to step 1f)
0.02644
0.02447
0.48293
0.01994
0.00628
0.02773
0.44969
0.38776
0.00055
0.07668
2b: Identify the data source from
Activity Data Source which activity data is obtained
3
69
11
33
Scenario 2 Activity
0.0291
0.0269
0.5312
0.0219
0.0069
0.0305
0.4947
0.4265
0.0006
0.0843
55.0000
2e. Enter activity data for the
alternate scenarios
Step 3. The GHG Inventory Re
Computed
scenario is calculated
alternate scenarios
Scenario 4 Activity
Scenario 5 Activity
27 36 24 25.12 27.62653268
9 12 8 8.37 9.208844225
Percent contribution to
Percent contribution to
Percent contribution to
Percent contribution to
Scenario 3 GHG Total
Scenario 2 inventory
Scenario 3 inventory
Scenario 4 inventory
Scenario 5 inventory
Baseline inventory
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Very
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Category of Activity Data
Good
Good
Activity Data 5b. Rank the Completeness of
Very
Very
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Completeness Each Category of Activity Data
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Activity Data Temporal 5c. Rank the Temporal
Representativeness of Each Activity Data
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Representativeness
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Category of Activity Data
Activity Data 5d. Rank the Geographic
Geographic Representativeness of Each
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Very
Very
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Good
Good
Good
Good
Representativeness Category of Activity Data
Activity Data 5e. Rank the Technological
Technological Representativeness of Each
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Very
Very
Very
Very
Very
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Representativeness Category of Activity Data
2
2
2
2
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
Uncertainty
1
1.2
1.5
1.2
1.5
1.2
1.5
1.2
1.5
1.1
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.2
Factor
Activity Data
1
1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
5f. The Activity Data Base
1.05
1.05
1.05
Completeness Factor
Uncertainty and Quality Rating
Activity Data Temporal Factors are Filled in Based on the
Representativeness Pedigree Matrix
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
Factor
Activity Data
Geographic
1
1
Step 5: Update the Data Quality Ratings for the
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.05
1.02
1.05
1.02
1.05
1.05
Representativeness
Factor
Activity Data
Technological
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Representativeness
Factor
Emission Factor Data 6a. Rank the Reliability of Each
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Very
Very
Very
Very
Very
Poor
Poor
Reliability Category of Emission Factor Data
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Fair
Fair
Fair
Very
Very
Very
Poor
Poor
Poor
Completeness
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Good
Data
Step 6: Update the D
Emission Factor Data
ep 6: Update the Data Quality Ratings for the Step 7: Computing the Compo
mission Factor Data Standard Deviations
Category of Emission Factor Data
Representativeness of Each
Representativeness of Each
6e. Rank the Technological
6d. Rank the Geographic
Completeness Factor
Emission Factor Data
Representativeness
Representativeness
Representativeness
Representativeness
Representativeness
Reliability Factor
Technological
Technological
Geographic
Geographic
Temporal
Temporal
Factor
Factor
Factor
Factor
Poor Fair Fair 1.05 1.2 1.05 1.5 1.05 1.5 1.6510819 1.28494430363459
Poor Fair Fair 1.05 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.05 1.5 1.5838813 1.25852345639313
Very
Good Good Fair 1.05 1 1.05 1 1.02 1.5 1.3000688 1.1402055962339
Very Very Very
Good Good Good 2 1.1 1 1 1 1 2.7802046 1.66739455047301
Good Poor Good 1.05 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.3067732 1.51880650352937
Good Fair Good 1.05 1 1.05 1.1 1.05 1.2 1.1959274 1.09358463573479
Good Fair Good 1.05 1 1.05 1.1 1.05 1.2 1.8461432 1.35872853709818
Fair Poor Poor 1.05 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 2 2.0769887 1.441176135733
Fair Fair Fair 1.05 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.05 1.5 2.3067732 1.51880650352937
Very
Poor Good Good 1.05 1.5 1.05 1.5 1.02 1 1.3068869 1.14319154952366
Poor Poor Fair 1.05 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.882297 1.37196828112542
Very
Good Good Good 2 1 1 1.1 1 1.2 2.3705376 1.539655031773
Very
Good Poor Good 2 1.2 1.2 1 1.1 1.2 2.5525182 1.59766023671247
Good Good Good 1.05 1.1 1.05 1.1 1.02 1.2 2.12403 1.45740523952448
Very
Good Good Good 2 1 1 1.1 1.02 1 2.0165101 1.42003875211967
mputing the Components of the Geometric Step 8: Computing the Contrib
Deviations Uncertainty for Each Scenario
based on the data quality ratings,
but the user may enter their own
GSD are computed automatically
for the GWP Data. The GSD2 and
7. The Components of the Total
Geometric Standard Deviations
Contribution to Total
Baseline Uncertainty
Emission Factor GSD
Scenario 2 Emission
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
2 Activity
Baseline Emission
Activity
Scenario 2 GWP
Baseline GWP
Component
Component
Component
Component
Component
Component
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
GWP GSD2
GWP GSD
Scenario
Baseline
Factor
Factor
1.8360329 1.35500290109789 1.013412873 1.00668409777751 0 0 ### 0.00404596 0 0 ###
Scenario is Computed
Scenario 2 Uncertainty
Scenario 3 Uncertainty
Scenario 4 Uncertainty
Scenario 5 Uncertainty
Contribution to Total
Contribution to Total
Contribution to Total
Contribution to Total
Scenario 3 Emission
Scenario 4 Emission
Scenario 5 Emission
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
3 Activity
4 Activity
5 Activity
Scenario 3 GWP
Scenario 4 GWP
Scenario 5 GWP
Toner Cartridge
Component
Component
Component
Component
Component
Component
Component
Component
Component
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Factor
Factor
Factor
(lnGSD)2
0.00404596 0 0 ### 0.00404596 0 0 ### 0.00404596 0 0 ### 0.00404596 0.0558182084449
computed
Scenario
Toner Cartridge
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
0.055818208 0.0558182084 0.055818208 0.05581821 median 155.55 171.10 139.99
95% lower
1.266502006 1.266502006 1.266502006 1.26650201 bound 96.974169919 106.67158691 87.276752927
95% upper
1.604027331 1.6040273311 1.604027331 1.60402733 bound 249.50519855 274.4557184 224.55467869
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
186.66 124.44
116.3690039 77.5793359
299.40623826 199.604159
70.290058852 46.8600392
112.7471755 75.1647837
Parameter Uncertainty for Baseline Scenarios
Total Life Cycle GHG Inventory (Kg CO2e) per 50,000 Pages Printed
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Toner Cartridge
Scenario Analysis
200
Total Life Cycle GHG Inventory (Kg CO2e) per 50,000 Pages Printed
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
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Scenario Analysis with Parameter Uncertainty
200
Total Life Cycle GHG Inventory (Kg CO2e) per 50,000 Pages Printed
180
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