SECOND ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF

NATIONAL INCOME, 2023-24, QUARTERLY

ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT FOR THE THIRD QUARTER
(OCTOBER-DECEMBER), 2023-24 AND FIRST
REVISED ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL
INCOME, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE,
SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION, 2022-23

Indian economy remained resilient with robust 7.6% growth

rate of GDP in FY 2023-24 over and above 7% growth rate in
FY 2022-23

Double-digit growth rate of Construction sector (10.7%),

followed by a good growth rate of Manufacturing sector
(8.5%) have boosted the GDP growth in FY 2023-24.

On the back of double-digit growth in Manufacturing sector

(11.6%) sector, followed by a good growth rate of
Construction sector (9.5%), Real GDP grew by 8.4% in Q3 of
FY 2023-24.

Second Revised Estimate (SRE) of 2021-22 and Third

Revised Estimate (TRE) of 2020-21 are the Final Estimates
for the respective years. SRE for 2021-22 onward will be the
Final Estimate and TRE for those years will not be released.
Posted On: 29 FEB 2024 5:30PM by PIB Delhi

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
(MoSPI) is releasing in this Press Note the Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income,
2023-24; Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for October-December quarter (Q3)

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of 2023-24 along with its expenditure components and following Revised Estimates of National
Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation:
a. First Revised Estimates (FRE) for the financial year 2022-23;

b. Second Revised Estimates (SRE) and Final Estimates for the financial year 2021-22;
c. Third Revised Estimates (TRE) and Final Estimates for the financial year 2020-21

These estimates are released both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, in accordance with the
release calendar of National Accounts. Further, it has been decided to consider the SRE as Final
Estimates. Accordingly, the practice of bringing out TRE would be discontinued henceforth.
Therefore, TRE of 2020-21 and SRE of 2021-22 are Final Estimates for the respective years.

2. Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated to attain a
level of ₹172.90 lakh crore, against the FRE of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹160.71 lakh
crore. The growth rate of GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.6 percent as compared to
growth rate of 7.0 percent in 2022-23.

3. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of
₹293.90 lakh crore, against ₹269.50 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 9.1
percent.

4. GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹43.72 lakh crore,

against ₹40.35 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.4 percent. GDP at
Current Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹75.49 lakh crore, as against ₹68.58 lakh crore
in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 10.1 percent.

5. Detailed Notes on: (i) Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income, 2023-24,
Quarterly Estimates of GDP for October-December quarter (Q3) of 2023-24 along with its
expenditure components are given in Part A and (ii) abovementioned Revised Estimates for
financial years 2022-23, 2021-22 and 2020-21 are given in Part B.

PART A
SECOND ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME 2023-24, QUARTERLY
ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE THIRD QUARTER
(OCTOBER-DECEMBER), 2023-24

NOTE ON SECOND ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2023-

24, QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE THIRD
QUARTER (OCT-DEC), 2023-24
In this part, the Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income, 2023-24 as well as
Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Third quarter (October-December) of
2023-24 (Q3, 2023-24) at both Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices are given.

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2. Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with Gross Value
Added (GVA) at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditure Components of GDP
for the year 2023-24 besides quarterly estimates and April-December Estimates for the years 2021-
22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with percent changes are
given in Statements 1A to 12A placed at the end of this part of the press note.

3. Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated at ₹172.90
lakh crore, against the First Revised Estimates (FRE) of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹160.71 lakh
crore. The growth in real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.6 per cent as compared to 7.0 per
cent in 2022-23.

4. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated at ₹293.90 lakh
crore, against the FRE of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹269.50 lakh crore. The growth in nominal
GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 9.1 per cent as compared to 14.2 per cent in 2022-23.

5. GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹43.72 lakh crore,

against ₹40.35 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.4 percent. GDP at Current
Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹75.49 lakh crore, as against ₹68.58 lakh crore in Q3 of
2022-23, showing a growth rate of 10.1 percent.

6. The Advance Estimates of National Income are indicator-based and are compiled using the
benchmark-indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the previous year (2022-23) are
extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. The First Advance
Estimates (FAE) for 2023-24 were based on very limited data and by using Provisional Estimates of
2022-23 as benchmark estimates.

7. For compilation of SAE 2023-24, the Provisional Estimates of 2022-23 used at the time of
FAE have been replaced by First Revised Estimates (FRE) 2022-23 which have been compiled using
industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information. Thus, variations in SAE from FAE is attributed
to revision of benchmark estimates and additional data available on various indicators like CPI, IIP,
Revised Estimates of fiscal data, financial results of listed companies etc. used for compiling the
estimates for 2023-24. The quarterly estimates of previous years along with the first and second
quarter estimates of 2023-24 released earlier have also undergone revision in accordance with the
revision policy of National Accounts.

8. The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators like (i) Index of Industrial
Production (IIP), (ii) Financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector
available for Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2023-24, (iii) Second Advance Estimates of Crop Production for
2023-24, (iv) Production targets as well as summer and rainy season production estimates of Major
Livestock Products for 2023-24, (v) Fish Production, (vi) Production/ Consumption of Cement and
Steel, (vii) Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers for Railways, (viii) Passenger and
Cargo traffic handled by Civil Aviation, (ix) Cargo traffic handled at Major and Minor Sea Ports, (x)
Sales of Commercial Vehicles, (xi) Bank Deposits & Credits, (xii) Accounts of Central & State
Governments, etc., available for first 9-10 months of the financial year 2023-24. Year-on-Year
growth rates (%) in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure A.

9. The total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue as well as GST
revenue. The Revised Estimates of tax revenue for 2023-24, as available in the Annual Financial
Statement of the Central Government for 2024-25, latest available information on the websites of

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Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have
been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices. For compiling taxes on products at
constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The
total product subsidies were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food,
Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy as available on CGA website and the expenditure
incurred on subsidies by most States upto December, 2023 as available on CAG website along with
the Centre/ State-wise RE and BE provision for 2023-24. Information on Revenue expenditure,
Interest payments, Subsidies etc. from Centre and States for 2023-24 are used for estimating
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

10. Improved data coverage, actual performance of various indicators, actual tax collections and
expenditure incurred on subsidies in the following months and revision in input data made by source
agencies will have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore,
likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users
should take these into consideration while interpreting the figures.

11. The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter January-March, 2024 (Q4 2023-
24) and Provisional Estimates of National Income for the year 2023-24 will be on 31st May, 2024.

***

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Annexure A

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 PART B
FIRST REVISED ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURE, SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION, 2022-23

NOTE ON FIRST REVISED ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, CONSUMPTION

EXPENDITURE, SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION, 2022-23

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 In this part, First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving
and Capital Formation for the financial year 2022-23 along with Second Revised Estimates for the
financial year 2021-22 and Third Revised Estimates for the financial year 2020-21 (with Base Year
2011-12) are given.
2. The First Revised Estimates for the year 2022-23 have been compiled using industry-
wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of using the benchmark-indicator method employed
at the time of release of Provisional Estimates on 31st May, 2023. The estimates of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) and other aggregates for the years 2020-21 and 2021-22 have also undergone
revisions on account of use of latest available datasets on agricultural production; industrial
production (final results of ASI: 2020-21 and 2021-22); government data as available in budget
documents (replacing Revised Estimates with actuals for the year 2021-22); comprehensive data
available from various source agencies like Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA), Reserve Bank of
India (RBI), National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) etc. and additional
data from State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics (DES).

3. The salient features of the revised estimates at aggregate level are as follows.

Gross Domestic Product

4. Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2022-23 and 2021-22 stands at
₹160.71 lakh crore and ₹150.22 lakh crore, respectively, showing a growth of 7.0 per cent during
2022-23 as compared to growth of 9.7 per cent during 2021-22.

5. Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2022-23 is estimated at ₹269.50 lakh
crore, against ₹235.97 lakh crore for the year 2021-22, showing a growth of 14.2 per cent during
2022-23 as compared to growth of 18.9 per cent during 2021-22.

GVA and its Industry-wise Analysis

6. At the aggregate level, nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices has increased by
14.0 per cent during 2022-23 compared to growth of 18.8 per cent during 2021-22. Real GVA, i.e.,
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices, has increased by 6.7 per cent in 2022-23, compared to 9.4 per cent
growth in 2021-22.

7. The shares of broad sectors of the economy in overall GVA during 2011-12 to 2022-23 and
the annual growth rates during these periods are mentioned below:

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 *: Third Revised and Final Estimates; #: Second Revised and Final Estimates; @: First Revised
Estimates

8. The growth rates of Primary sector (comprising Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fishing and
Mining & Quarrying), Secondary sector (comprising Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply
& Other Utility Services, and Construction) and Tertiary sector (Services) have been estimated as 4.4
per cent, 2.1 per cent and 10.0 per cent respectively in 2022-23 as against growth rates of 4.8 per
cent, 12.7 per cent and 9.2 per cent respectively in the previous years. The growth in real GVA during
2022-23 is on account of growth in ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’,
‘Construction’, ‘Trade, repair, Hotels and Restaurants’, ‘Transport, Storage and Communication &
Services related to Broadcasting’, ‘Financial Services’, ‘Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling &
Professional Services’ and ‘Other services’ as may be seen from Statement 4.2B. However,
‘Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’ and ‘Public Administration
and Defense’ have witnessed modest growth, and ‘Manufacturing’ sector has slightly contracted,
during this period.

Net National Income

9. Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for the year 2022-23 stands at ₹234.39 lakh
crore as against ₹206.53 lakh crore in 2021-22, showing a growth of 13.5 per cent during 2022-23 as
compared to growth of 19.7 per cent in the previous year.

Gross National Disposable Income

10. Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated at ₹273.99 lakh
crore for the year 2022-23, while the estimate for the year 2021-22 stands at ₹239.25 lakh crore,
showing a growth of 14.5 per cent for year 2022-23 as compared to growth of 18.8 per cent in the
year 2021-22.

Saving

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11. Gross Saving during 2022-23 is estimated at ₹81.50 lakh crore against ₹73.63 lakh crore
during 2021-22. Share of Non-financial corporations, Financial corporations, General Government
and Household sectors in Gross Savings during 2022-23 stands at 37.3%, 9.3%, (-) 7.5% and 60.9%
respectively. Rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for 2022-23 is estimated at 29.7 per cent as against 30.8
per cent for 2021-22.

Capital Formation

12. Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated at ₹86.78 lakh crore for the
year 2022-23 as compared to ₹76.48 lakh crore during 2021-22. The rate of GCF to GDP is 32.2 per
cent during 2022-23 as against 32.4 per cent in the 2021-22. The rates of capital formation in the
years 2011-12 to 2019-20 and 2021-22 to 2022-23 have been higher than the rate of saving because
of positive net capital flow from RoW.
13. In terms of the share to the total GFCF (at current prices), the highest contributor is Non-
Financial Corporations followed by Household sector, share of which stood at 44.2% and 41.8%
respectively in 2022-23.

14. The rate of GCF to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices was 36.7 per cent in 2021-22 and 34.9
per cent in 2022-23.

Consumption Expenditure

15. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at ₹164.23
lakh crore for the year 2022-23 as against ₹143.83 lakh crore in 2021-22. In relation to GDP, the
PFCE to GDP ratio at current prices during 2021-22 and 2022-23 are 61.0 per cent and 60.9 per cent
respectively. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ₹87.33 lakh crore and ₹93.24
lakh crore, respectively for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23. The corresponding PFCE to GDP ratio
for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23 are 58.1 per cent and 58.0 per cent respectively.

16. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at

₹28.84 lakh crore for the year 2022-23 as against ₹24.72 lakh crore during 2021-22. At constant
(2011-12) prices the estimates of GFCE for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23 stand at ₹14.80 lakh crore
and ₹16.14 lakh crore respectively.

Per Capita Estimates

17. Per Capita Income i.e. Per Capita Net National Income at current prices is estimated at
₹1,50,906 and ₹1,69,496 respectively for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23. Per Capita PFCE at current
prices, for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23 is estimated at ₹1,05,092 and ₹1,18,755 respectively.

Summary of Revisions in the GDP Estimates

Revision in the estimates of the year 2022-23

18. The following statement gives the major reasons of variation between the Provisional
Estimates (released on 31st May, 2023) and the First Revised Estimates of GVA for 2022-23.

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 GVA growth in 2022-23 Major reasons for variation

Sector (at 2011-12 Prices)

Prov. First Revised

Estimate Estimate
(PE), (FRE),

May 2023 Feb 2024

Primary[i] 4.0 4.4 GVA estimates of Agriculture, Livestock,

Forestry and Fishing sectors have undergone
revision due to revision in production
estimates of crop sector as per Final
Estimate of Ministry of Agriculture and
Farmers’ Welfare. Also, for horticulture
sector, 3rd Advance estimates of production
have been used. The revision in other
industries in Primary Sector is due to the
incorporation of latest revised data.

Secondary[ii] 4.4 2.1 Estimates of secondary sector have

undergone downward revision due to
availability of additional data in respect of
companies post PE FY 2022-23 release and
revision in input data by source agencies.

Tertiary[iii] 9.5 10.0 Estimates of tertiary sector have undergone

upward revision due to availability of
additional data in respect of companies post
PE FY 2022-23 release and revision in input
data by source agencies. Furthermore, the
revision is due to the use of Revised
Estimates (RE) from Union and State
Governments’ budget documents and the
information on Actual Expenditure of
various Ministries/Departments of Union
Government for 2022-23 has been used to
the extent available on e-lekha.

Total GVA at 7.0 6.7

Basic Prices

GDP 7.2 7.0

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Reason(s) for revisions in the estimates of the years 2020-21 and 2021-22

19. The use of latest available data from various agencies has resulted in some changes in both the
levels of GVA and growth estimates for the years 2020-21 and 2021-22.

Revisions in Major Aggregates

20. The level of revisions in the major aggregates at current and constant (2011-12) prices are
given in the following table:

Major National Income Aggregates and their % Changes

(₹ in Lakh Crore)

S.No. Item 2020-21 2021-22

2nd RE 3rd RE % 1st RE 2nd RE %

change change

At current prices

1 GVA at basic 181.89 182.11 0.1 214.39 216.36 0.9

prices

2 GDP 198.30 198.54 0.1 234.71 235.97 0.5

3 GNI 195.63 195.87 0.1 230.01 233.20 1.4

4 NNI 172.23 172.47 0.1 203.27 206.53 1.6

5 GNDI 201.15 201.40 0.1 236.07 239.25 1.3

At constant (2011-12) prices

1 GVA at basic 126.81 126.87 0.05 137.98 138.77 0.6

prices

2 GDP 136.87 136.95 0.1 149.26 150.22 0.6

3 GNI 134.97 134.94 -0.02 146.20 148.28 1.4

4 NNI 116.64 116.61 -0.02 126.71 128.72 1.6

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Major reasons for revisions in GVA/GDP estimates are as given below:

Year 2020-21

Use of updated estimates of production and prices of some crops, livestock products, fish and
forestry products from few States and DESs and latest CCS (2020-21) rates of by-products in
crop sector.
Use of updated input rate received from IBM.

Use of final results of ASI: 2020-21.

Use of latest reports of few NBFIs/ financial auxiliaries.

Use of updated information received from state governments and local bodies.

Year 2021-22

Use of updated production estimates (Final Estimates) of Foodgrains, Commercial and

Horticulture crops from Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare in place of 4th Advance
and 3rd Advance estimates, respectively.

Use of updated estimates of production and prices of some crops, livestock products, fish and
forestry products from a few States and DESs; and latest CCS (2021-22) rates of by-products in
crop sector.

Use of updated GVA supplied by NDEs for the Electricity sector.

Use of ASI: 2021-22 data and augmented data for non-financial private corporate sector.

Use of ‘Actuals’ in place of ‘Revised Estimates’ of different items of expenditure and receipts
in the Central & State government budgets.

Use of updated information on Local Bodies and Autonomous Institutions.

Use of latest annual reports of Public Sector Enterprises.

Use of latest data received for Cooperative Banks, Postal Life Insurance (PLI) & Post Office
Saving Bank (POSB), Non-Banking Financial Institutions (NBFIs), and Financial Auxiliaries.

Detailed Statements

21. List of Statements released in part B is given below. More details of the revised estimates, i.e.,
FRE 2022-23, SRE 2021-22 and TRE 2020-21 are available in Statements 1.1B to 9B of Annexure B,
which are given in PDF format of the press note.

1. Statement 1.1B: Key Aggregates of National Accounts at Current Prices

2. Statement 1.2B: Key Aggregates of National Accounts at Constant (2011-12) Prices

3. Statement 2B: Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption

4. Statement 3.1B: Output by Economic Activity and Capital Formation by Industry of Use
at Current Prices

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 5. Statement3.2B: Output by Economic Activity and Capital Formation by Industry of Use
at Constant (2011-12) Prices

6. Statement 4.1B: Gross Value Added by Economic Activity at Current Basic Prices

7. Statement 4.2B: Gross Value Added by Economic Activity at Constant (2011-12) Basic
Prices

8. Statement 5B: Finances for Gross Capital Formation

9. Statement 6.1B: Gross Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Current Prices

10. Statement 6.2B: Gross Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Constant (2011-12) Prices

11. Statement 7.1B: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Asset & Institutional Sector at Current
Prices
12. Statement 7.2B: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Asset & Institutional Sector at
Constant (2011-12) Prices

13. Statement 8.1B: Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Current Prices

14. Statement 8.2B: Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Constant (2011-12) Prices

15. Statement 9B: Institutional Sectors – Key Economic Indicators at Current Prices

***********

Annexure B
FORMULAE

1. GVA at basic prices (Production Approach) = Output at basic price – Intermediate

Consumption

2. GVA at basic prices (Income Approach) = CE + OS/MI + CFC + Production taxes less
Production subsidies(i)

3. GDP = ∑ GVA at basic prices + Product taxes less Product subsidies(ii)

4. NDP/NNI = GDP/GNI - CFC

5. GNI = GDP + Net primary income from ROW (Receipts less payments)

6. Primary Incomes = CE + Property and Entrepreneurial Income

7. NNDI =NNI + other current transfers(iii) from ROW, net (Receipts less payments)

8. GNDI = NNDI + CFC = GNI + other current transfers(iii) from ROW, net (Receipts less
payments)

9. Gross Capital Formation(iv) (Financing Side) = Gross Savings + Net Capital Inflow from ROW
10. GCF (Expenditure Side) = GFCF + CIS + Valuables

11. Gross Disposable Income of Govt. = GFCE + Gross Saving of General Government

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 12. Gross
Disposable Income (GDI) of Households = GNDI – GDI of Govt. – Gross Savings of All
Corporations

REMARKS ON THE FORMULAE

i. Productiontaxes or subsidies are paid or received with relation to production and are
independent of the volume of actual production. Some examples are:
Production Taxes - Land Revenues, Stamps & Registration fees and Tax on profession

Production Subsidies - Subsidies to Railways, Subsidies to village and small

industries.

ii. Product taxes or subsidies are paid or received on per unit of product. Some examples are:

Product Taxes- Goods & Services Tax, Excise duties, Sales tax, Service Tax and
Import, Export duties

Product Subsidies- Food, Petroleum and fertilizer subsidies.

iii. Other Current Transfers refers to current transfers other than the primary incomes.

iv. Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at the current as well as the constant prices is estimated by
two approaches: – (i) through flow of funds, derived as Gross Saving plus net capital flow from
Rest of the World (RoW); and (ii) by the commodity flow approach, derived by the type of
assets.
********

[i] Primary sector comprises agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying activities.

[ii] Secondary sector comprises manufacturing; electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services
and construction

[iii] Tertiary sector comprises all services.

Click here to see Press Note in PDF format

*****

Beena Yadav

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