Bangladesh Economic Review 2023 Chapter 2
Bangladesh Economic Review 2023 Chapter 2
Bangladesh Economic Review 2023 Chapter 2
CHAPTER TWO
GDP, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT
The Bangladesh economy has been showing sustainable recovery from the impact of the global coronavirus
pandemic. The GDP growth experienced a sharp fall at 3.45 percent in FY 2019-20 from 7.88 percent
growth of pre-pandemic year. However, GDP growth rebounded and stood at 6.94 percent in FY 2020-21
and 7.10 percent in FY 2021-22. But due to Russia-Ukraine crisis, the economic growth in FY 2022-23 has
been hampered. According to the provisional estimate of BBS, the GDP growth is expected to be 6.03
percent in FY 2022-23. During the period, the per capita GDP and GNI stood at US$ 2,657 and US$ 2,765
respectively. The per capita GDP and GNI of the previous fiscal year were US$ 2,687 and US$ 2,793
respectively. The growth of agriculture sector was 3.17 percent in FY 2020-21, which stood at 3.05 percent
in FY 2021-22. According to the provisional estimate, the growth of the agriculture sector will stand at 2.61
percent in FY 2022-23. In FY 2020-21, the growth of the industry sector was 10.29 percent, which declined
to 9.86 percent in FY 2021-22. The growth of the industry sector is estimated at 8.18 percent in current
fiscal year. According to the provisional data, in FY 2022-23, growth in broad service sector has been
decreased to 5.84 percent as compared to 6.26 percent in the FY 2021-22. The sectoral share of broad
agriculture, industry and service stood at 11.20 percent, 37.56 percent and 51.24 percent respectively in FY
2022-23; which were 11.61 percent, 36.92 percent and 51.48 percent respectively in previous fiscal year. In
demand side, the consumption expenditure stood at 73.98 percent in FY 2022-23, with significant
contribution of private sector. Gross domestic savings increased to 26.02 percent of GDP in FY 2022-23,
from 25.22 percent a year earlier. Similarly gross national savings as percent of GDP increased to 30.22
percent in FY 2022-23 from 29.35 percent in FY 2021-22. On the other hand, investment-GDP ratio slightly
decreased to 31.25 percent in FY 2022-23 from 32.05 percent in previous fiscal year.
Table 2.1: GDP, GNI, Per Capita GDP and GNI at Current Market Prices
GDP (In Crore Tk.) 2075821 2324307 2639248 2951429 3170469 3530185 3971716 4439273
GNI (In Crore Tk.) 2173075 2404557 2744791 3072323 3301701 3715997 4129062 4618529
Population (In crore) 15.99 16.18 16.37 16.56 16.74 16.91 17.13 17.07
Per Capita GDP (In Tk.) 129828 143698 161274 178280 189361 208751 231861 259919
Per Capita GNI (In Tk.) 135911 148659 167723 185583 197199 219738 241047 270414
Per Capita GDP (In US$) 1659 1816 1964 2122 2234 2462 2687 2657
Per Capita GNI (In US$) 1737 1879 2043 2209 2326 2591 2793 2765
14
12 11.63
10.2 10.29
9.86
10
8.27 8.18
Percent (%)
8 7.88
7.32 6.94 7.1
6.59
6 6.03
4 3.61
3.45
3.2 3.54 3.26 3.42 3.17
2 3.05
2.61
6.37 6.55 6.88 3.93 5.73 6.26 5.84
0
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23*
(*Provisional.)
Agriculture Sector
lakh MT and marine fish production 7.06 lakh
According to the provisional estimate of BBS, MT) in previous fiscal year.
the growth of agriculture sector stood at 2.61
Industry Sector
percent in FY 2022-23, which was 3.05 percent
in previous fiscal year. During this period among Due to the coronavirus pandemic, industrial
the 4 sub-sectors of broad agriculture sector the production declined sharply in FY 2019-20.
growth rate of crops and horticulture and fishing During the period, growth in the industrial sector
has decreased while the growth rate of animal slowed to 3.61 percent from 11.63 percent in the
farming and forest and related services has previous fiscal year. However, in FY 2020-21,
increased compared to previous fiscal year. the industrial sector has turned around and the
growth of this sector has stood at 10.29 percent.
The food-grain production target (rice, wheat and
But due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the growth
maize) in FY 2022-23 has been set at 484.98 lakh
of the industrial sector again declined to 9.86
metric tonnes (MT), which was 458.96 lakh MT
percent in FY 2021-22. As per provisional
in previous fiscal year. Rice production target in
estimate, the growth in the industrial sector will
FY 2022-23 is 415.69 (Aus 36.90, Aman 163.45
stand at 8.18 percent in FY 2022-23.
and Boro 215.34) lakh MT. Besides, wheat
production and maize production target in In FY 2021-22, the growth in the mining and
FY 2022-23 has been set at 11.60 lakh MT and quarrying sector of broad industry sector
57.68 lakh MT. According to the estimate of the contracted by 1.12 percent from 6.49 percent
Department of Fisheries (DoF), the total fish compared to the previous fiscal year. Growth in
production in FY 2022-23 is expected to be 47.81 this sector is provisionally estimated to be 5.74
lakh MT (inland fish production 40.75 lakh MT percent in the current fiscal year. Growth in the
and marine fish production 7.06 lakh MT), which manufacturing sector has decreased from 11.59
was 47.59 lakh MT (inland fish production 40.53 percent in FY 2020-21 to 11.41 percent in FY
Chapter 2-GDP, Savings and Investment | 13
Bangladesh Economic Review 2023
2021-22. According to provisional estimate, the year GDP to 13 sectors in the 2015-16 base year
growth of this sector has declined to 9.23 percent GDP. According to the provisional data, in FY
in FY 2022-23. Among them, growth in large 2022-23 growth rate in broad service sector is
scale industries will be 8.46 percent, growth in decreased by 0.42 percentage point to 5.84
small, medium and micro scale industries will be percent as compared to 6.26 percent in the
9.73 percent and growth in cottage industries will previous fiscal year. Among the sectors the
be 10.69 percent. growth of wholesale and retail trade is 6.65
percent, transportation and storage 5.99 percent,
According to the ‘Index of Industrial Production
accommodation and food service activities 5.89
of Manufacturing on Large Scale’ (Base Year:
percent, information and communication 5.42
2015-16), the average general index of industrial
percent, financial and insurance activities 5.76
production (large scale manufacturing ) increased
percent, education 6.88 percent and human health
by 0.25 percent to 189.26 point during July-
and social work activities 8.36 percent.
October of FY 2022-23 over that of FY 2021-22.
During the period, the growth in the indices for Sectoral Shares in GDP at Constant Prices
garments, textile and leather and leather product
According to provisional data, the share of the
are (-)1.28 percent, 8.00 percent and 59.16
agriculture sector in GDP at constant prices stood
percent respectively. In addition, according to the
at 11.20 percent in FY 2022-23, from 11.61
‘Index of Industrial Production of Manufacturing
percent in FY 2021-22. During FY 2022-23,
on SMMe Scale’ (Base Year: 2015-16), the
within the broad industry sector, contribution of
average general index of industrial
‘manufacturing’ sector and ‘construction’ sector
production(Small, Medium and Micro
increased to 24.95 percent and 9.55 percent
manufacturing) increased by 8.27 percent to
respectively, which was 24.29 percent and 9.54
196.90 point during July-October of FY 2022-23
percent in the previous fiscal year. The share of
over that of FY 2021-22. During the period, the
broad industry sector reached 37.56 percent in
growth in the indices for garments, textile and
FY 2022-23 from 36.92 percent in FY 2021-22.
leather and leather product are 22.70 percent, (-)
In FY 2022-23, the share of broad service sector
1.73 percent and 11.24 percent respectively.
in GDP stood at 51.24 percent, from 51.48
Among the sectors of broad industry sector, the percent in previous year. Within the broad
growth rate of ‘electricity, gas steam and air service sector, the contribution of wholesale and
conditioner’ will be 4.54 percent in the current retail trade sector (15.29%) was the highest. Also
fiscal year, but the growth of this sector was 6.15 real estate activities (7.93%) was the second
percent in the previous fiscal year. On the other highest and transport and storage was (7.32%)
hand, the growth rate of the construction sector in the third highest contributors of GDP. Next
FY 2021-22 increased to 8.71 percent from 8.08 positions are public administration and defence
percent in FY 2020-21. It is estimated that the (3.47%), human health and social work activities
growth of this sector will be decreased and it will (3.46%) and financial and insurance activities
be 6.41 percent in the current fiscal year. (3.17%). Table 2.4 shows the sectoral share of
GDP at constant prices during FY 2015-16 to FY
Service Sector
2022-23.
The number of sectors in the broad service sector
has increased from 9 sectors in the 2005-06 base
percent of GDP before FY 2005-06. Contribution 06. In recent time this contribution is near about
of this sector rose at 55.59 percent in FY 2005- 51 to 53 percent.
Table 2.5: Trend of Structural Transformation of Broad Sectoral Shares in GDP and Growth Rate
at Constant Prices
Share (in percent)
Sector
1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23*
Agriculture
31.15 29.23 25.68 25.03 19.01 18.01 16.50 16.00 13.62 13.14 12.56 12.52 12.07 11.61 11.20
Industry
19.13 21.04 24.87 26.20 25.40 27.38 29.55 30.42 32.98 33.85 34.99 34.94 36.01 36.92 37.56
Service
49.73 49.73 49.45 48.77 55.59 54.61 53.15 53.58 53.40 53.01 52.45 52.54 51.92 51.48 51.24
Total
100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Industry
6.72 4.57 6.98 7.45 9.80 9.02 8.16 9.67 8.27 10.20 11.63 3.61 10.29 9.86 8.18
Service
4.10 3.28 3.96 5.53 6.60 6.22 5.62 5.80 6.37 6.55 6.88 3.93 5.73 6.26 5.84
GDP
(At
producer
prices) 3.34 3.24 4.47 5.41 7.18 6.64 6.15 6.54 6.54 7.34 8.01 3.76 7.00 7.17 6.33
Figure 2.2: Share of three Major Sectors in the Last More than three Decades at Constant Prices.
100
80
49.73 49.45 48.77 55.59 54.61 53.15 53.58 53.4 53.01 52.45 52.54 51.92 51.24
Percent (%)
60
*Provisional
Figure 2.3: Trend of Investment, Domestic Savings and National Savings as percent of GDP
32.05
34
31.82
31.42
31.31
31.25
31.14
31.02
30.95
30.79
30.71
30.61
30.24
30.22
32
29.35
Percent of GDP (%)
30
27.27
27.08
27.07
26.88
26.45
26.02
28
25.34
25.22
26
24
22
20
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23*
(*Provisional).