Mod 4
Mod 4
Mod 4
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EXPOSURE
What is Foreign Exchange Exposure?
• Simply put, foreign exchange exposure is the risk
associated with activities that involve a global
firm in currencies other than its home currency.
• Essentially, it is the risk that a foreign currency
may move in a direction which is financially
detrimental to the global firm.
• Given our observed potential for adverse
exchange rate movements, firms must:
– Assess and Manage their foreign exchange exposures.
• FE Exposure can be defined as the risk of loss
stemming from exposure to adverse foreign exchange
rate movements.
• FE exposure is used to describe the degree at which
the potential/future profitability, net cash flow and
perceived market value of a firm’s value changes as a
result of change in exchange rate, i.e. to say that it is a
company’s probability of making either a loss or profit
as a result of movements in ER.
• FE Exposure relates to the effect of unexpected ER
changes on the value of the firm. In particular, it is
defined as the possible direct loss or indirect loss in the
firm’s cash flows, assets & liabilities, net profit & in
turn, its stock market value from an exchange rate
move.
TYPES OF EXPOSURE:
• There are three distinct types of foreign exchange exposures that
global firms may face as a result of their international activities.
• These foreign exchange exposures are:
• Transaction exposure
– Any MNC engaged in current transactions involving foreign
currencies.
• Economic exposure
– Results for future and unknown transactions in foreign
currencies resulting from a MNC long term involvement in a
particular market.
• Translation exposure (sometimes called “accounting” exposure).
– Important for MNCs with a physical presence in a foreign
country.
Economic Exposure
• Economic Exposure: Results from the “physical” entry (and on-going
presence) of a global firm into a foreign market.
– This is a long term foreign exchange exposure resulting from a
previous FDI location decision.
• Over time, the firm will acquire foreign currency denominated
assets and liabilities in the foreign country.
• The firm will also have operating income and operating costs in the
foreign country.
– Economic exposure impacts the firm through contracts and
transactions which have yet to occur, but will, in the future, because of
the firm’s location.
• These are really “future” transaction exposures which are
unknown today.
– Economic exposure can have profound impacts on a global firm’s
competitive position and on the market value of that firm.
TRANSACTION EXPOSURE:
• Transaction Exposure means changes in the
present cash flow of a firm consequent upon the
exchange rate changes.
• TE is basically the cash flow risk and deals with
the effect of exchange rate moves on
Transactional account exposure related to
receivables (export contracts), payables (import
contracts), or repatriation of dividends.
• Transaction Exposure= Rupee worth of accounts
receivable (payable) when actual settlement is
made minus Rupee worth of accounts receivable
(payable) when the trade transaction was
initiated.
• Transaction Exposure emerges mainly on account
of:
– Export & Import of commodities on open account.
– Borrowing & Lending in Foreign Currencies.
– Intra-firm flow in MNCs.
• Transaction Exposure is of three types:
– Quotation Exposure– it is created when the exporter
quotes a price in FC & exists till the importer places an
order at that price.
– Backlog Exposure– this exists between the placement
of order by the importer & the shipping and billing by
the seller.
– Billing Exposure– it exists between the billing of the
shipment & the settlement of the trade payments.
Translation Exposure:
• Translation/Accounting Exposure is the mismatch between the
translated value of assets and liabilities following the ER change.
It emerges on account of consolidation of financial statements of
different subsidiaries of a parent MNC. When the ER changes,
value of the consolidated financial statement also changes. The
extent of this change represents the magnitude of Translation
Exposure (TsE).
• Size of the TsE depends on:-
– The extent of change in the related currencies.
– Extent of involvement of subsidiaries in parent’s business.
– Location of subsidiaries in countries with stable/unstable
currencies.
– Methods of translation.
Measurement of Foreign Exchange
Exposure
• There are many methods available to cover or
hedge the exposure to risk.
• Measurement and Management of Foreign
Exchange Risk/ exposure are as follows:
• Measurement of Economic Exposure
• Measurement of Transaction Exposure
• Measurement of Translation Exposure
Measurement for Economic Exposure
• The degree of operating exposure to exchange
rate fluctuations is significantly higher for a
firm involved in international business than
for a purely domestic firm.
• Operating exposure is crucial to operations of
the firm in the long run.
• If an MNC has subsidiaries around the world,
each subsidiary will be affected differently by
fluctuations in currency.
• One method of measuring a MNCs operating
exposure is to classify the cash flow into
different items on the income statement and
predict movement of each item in the income
statement based on a forecast of exchange
rates.
• This will help in developing an alternative
exchange rate scenario and the forecasts for
the income statement item can be revised.
Measurement for Transaction Exposure
• Financial Strategy
• Marketing Strategy
– Market Selection
– Product Planning
– Pricing Policy
• Production Strategy
– Product Sources
– Input Mixing
– Plant Location
Management of Transaction Exposure
• There are two methods available to a firm to
hedge its transaction exposure: