The document discusses emerging challenges in international finance for Indian firms, foreign exchange exposure and risks, and recent changes in global financial markets.
Some key challenges include greater political and economic uncertainties, increased competition from liberalization and globalization, and exposure to fluctuations in exchange rates and interest rates. Firms face transaction and translation foreign exchange exposure from cross-border activities and holdings of foreign currency assets and liabilities.
Recent decades have seen unprecedented integration and unification of global financial markets through removal of capital controls, deregulation, and innovations. National boundaries have blurred as markets integrate geographically and different financial institutions converge functionally. The emergence of the Eurozone has further concentrated capital in European markets.
The document discusses emerging challenges in international finance for Indian firms, foreign exchange exposure and risks, and recent changes in global financial markets.
Some key challenges include greater political and economic uncertainties, increased competition from liberalization and globalization, and exposure to fluctuations in exchange rates and interest rates. Firms face transaction and translation foreign exchange exposure from cross-border activities and holdings of foreign currency assets and liabilities.
Recent decades have seen unprecedented integration and unification of global financial markets through removal of capital controls, deregulation, and innovations. National boundaries have blurred as markets integrate geographically and different financial institutions converge functionally. The emergence of the Eurozone has further concentrated capital in European markets.
The document discusses emerging challenges in international finance for Indian firms, foreign exchange exposure and risks, and recent changes in global financial markets.
Some key challenges include greater political and economic uncertainties, increased competition from liberalization and globalization, and exposure to fluctuations in exchange rates and interest rates. Firms face transaction and translation foreign exchange exposure from cross-border activities and holdings of foreign currency assets and liabilities.
Recent decades have seen unprecedented integration and unification of global financial markets through removal of capital controls, deregulation, and innovations. National boundaries have blurred as markets integrate geographically and different financial institutions converge functionally. The emergence of the Eurozone has further concentrated capital in European markets.
The document discusses emerging challenges in international finance for Indian firms, foreign exchange exposure and risks, and recent changes in global financial markets.
Some key challenges include greater political and economic uncertainties, increased competition from liberalization and globalization, and exposure to fluctuations in exchange rates and interest rates. Firms face transaction and translation foreign exchange exposure from cross-border activities and holdings of foreign currency assets and liabilities.
Recent decades have seen unprecedented integration and unification of global financial markets through removal of capital controls, deregulation, and innovations. National boundaries have blurred as markets integrate geographically and different financial institutions converge functionally. The emergence of the Eurozone has further concentrated capital in European markets.
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2 a.
Write a note on emerging challenges in the area of international finance
concerning a firm I-29 to 31 3 marks Emerging challenges: A firm as a dynamic entity has to continuously adapt to changes in its operating environment and in its goals and strategy During 1980s and 1990s there was unprecedented environmental changes for most of Indian firms Political uncertainties at home and abroad, economic liberalisation at home, greater exposure to international markets, increase in exchange rates and interest rates, increased competition, threat of hostile takeover have forced firms to rethink their strategic posture 21st century saw even greater acceleration of environmental changes and increase in uncertainties facing the firm As we approach WTO deadlines pertaining to removal of trade barriers firms have to face even more competition at home and abroad Capital account convertibility of the rupee is expected any time Ceilings on foreign portfolio investment are being revised upwards and barriers for foreign direct investment are being steadily lowered Indian banking sector is being opened up to significant increase in foreign stake On the whole integration of India in the global economy is expected to accelerate hence exposure of Indian firms to global financial markets is certainly going to increase in future.
b. Write a note on foreign exchange exposure and risk II-6 to 12 7 marks
Classification of foreign exchange exposure and risk:
Firms around the world are aware that fluctuations in exchange rates expose their revenues, costs, operating cash flows and hence their market value to substantial fluctuations Firms which have cross-border transactions- exports and imports of goods and services, foreign borrowing and lending, foreign portfolio and direct investment are directly exposed Purely domestic firms which have no cross-border transactions are also exposed because their customers, suppliers and competitors are exposed Efforts are devoted to identify and categorize currency exposure and developing methods to quantify it In currency exposure, firms are faced with two types of exposures in short term viz., accounting exposure and operating exposure
Consider a Firm that has certain contractually fixed payments and
receipts in foreign currency as import payables, interest payable on foreign currency loans, export receivables etc., which are settled within in an year. An unanticipated change in the exchange rate has an impact-favorable or adverse-on its cash flows which is known as transactions exposures The foreign currency values of assets and liabilities are contractually fixed they do not vary with exchange rate, hence also called as contractual exposure Transaction risk can be defined as a measure of variability in the value of assets and liabilities when they are liquidated. Two Important points; 1. transactions exposure usually have short time horizons, 2. operating cash flows are affected The other short-term exposure is known as translation exposure also called accounting exposure A firm may have assets and liabilities denominated in a foreign currency These are not going to be liquidated in foreseeable future Accounting standards require the firm must translate these values into home currency and report in balance sheet Translation risk is the related measure of variability The key difference is that, the transaction exposure has impact on cash flows and translation exposure has no direct effect on cash flows Accounting treatment of transaction and translation exposure: The transaction and translation exposure give rise to exchange gains and losses, real or notional
c Write a note on recent changes in the global financial markets
I-37 to 46 10 marks Recent changes in global financial markets: 1980s witnessed unprecedented changes in financial markets around the world The emergence of Euromarkets in 1960s which were free from regulations, led to internationalization of banking business These markets grew in 70s and pioneered a number of innovative funding techniques The outstanding feature of changes during 1980s was integration The boundaries between national markets and those between national and offshore markets blurred leading to emergence of global unified financial market Banks in major industrialized countries have increased their presence in each other countries Major markets such as US, Europe and Japan are being tapped by non-resident borrowers Non resident investment banks are allowed to access national bond and stock markets In addition to geographical integration across markets, there has been a strong trend towards functional unification across various types of FIs within individual markets The traditional segmentation between commercial banking, investment banking, consumer finance is disappearing and everybody does everything The driving force behind this functional integration were i. liberalisation in cross-border transactions and ii. Deregulation within the financial systems of major industrial nations The most significant liberalisation measure was lifting exchange controls in France, UK and Japan (US, Germany, Switzerland, Holland were already free from most controls) Withholding taxes on interest paid to non-residents were removed, domestic financial markets were opened to foreign borrowers and domestic borrowers were allowed access to foreign financial markets Thus in the portfolios of investors around the world, assets denominated in various currencies became nearly substitutable Investors could optimise their portfolios considering estimates of return, risk and their own risk preferences Borrowers could optimise their liability portfolios considering estimates of funding costs, interest rate and exchange rate risks and their risk preferences Deregulation involved action on two fronts i. eliminating the segmentation of markets for financial services with specialised services and fostering greater competition such as abolition of fixed brokerage charges, breaking up bank cartels etc., ii. Permitting foreign FIs to enter national markets and compete on an equal footing with domestic institutions in offering services to borrowers and investors Because of liberalisation and deregulation, a number of non-resident firms are listed on major stock exchanges like New York and London Liberalisation and deregulation has led competition with in financial service industry, Spreads on loans, underwriting commission, and fees of various kinds have become thin The attainment of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMUabout 12 countries same currency) and birth of Euro at end of 1990s have led to emergence of large capital market competing with US financial markets which is provider of capital to firms and governments around the world The financial innovations from last 15 years resulted in options, swaps, futures and their innumerable combinations comes from both demand side and supply side Many of these new products are not even understood by the bankers themselves Liberalisation and deregulation are ongoing process giving rise to re- composition of some controls and barriers to cross border capital movements The quality and rigor of banking system in many developing countries needs improvement US and most Europe have more or less free financial markets
5. a. Explain the components of balance of payments III-12,13 3 marks
The BOP is a collection of accounts conventionally grouped into three main categories with subdivisions in each. 1. current account: imports and exports of goods and services and unilateral transfer of goods and services are included 2. capital account: transactions leading to changes in foreign financial assets and liabilities of the country are included 3.reserve account: in principle this is capital account. However only reserve assets are included in this category. These assets are used by monetary authority of the country to settle the deficit and surplus that arise on the other two categories taken together Reserve assets are financial assets acceptable as a means of payment in international transactions and are held by and exchanged between the monetary authorities of trading countries. They consist of monetary gold*, assets denominated in foreign currencies, special rights and reserve positions in the IMF Deficits and surpluses on the other two categories lead to decumulation and accumulation of reserves respectively
b. Explain Accounting principles in Balance of Payments (BOP) III- 9 to
11 7 marks Accounting principles in Balance of Payments (BOP): The BOP is a standard double entry accounting record and as such is subject to all the rules of double entry book keeping Viz., for every transactions two entries must be made, one credit (+) and one debit (-) and leaving aside errors and omissions, the total credits must exactly match total of debits That is balance of payment must balance Valuation and timing: IMF recommends the use of market prices i.e., price paid by the willing buyer to a willing seller, where they are two independent parties IMF recommends FOB price for valuation In India exports are valued on FOB and imports on CIF basis Theoretically exchange rates prevailing at the time of transaction to be used, however in practice, in most cases, for transactions during a a particular month, the average exchange rate for the month is used The two sides of transaction are to be recorded in the same period of time For this purpose conventions have been established such as: Exports are recorded when cleared by customs Imports are recorded when payment is made etc.,
c. Write a note on importance of BOP statistics III- 39 to 42 10 marks
Importance of BOP statistics: In BOP deficits or surpluses may have an immediate impact on the exchange rate BOP records all transactions that create demand for and supply of a currency When exchange rates are market determined, BOP figures indicate excess demand or supply of currency and possible impact on exchange rate Taken in conjunction with past data they confirm or indicate a reversal of perceived trends They may signal a policy shift on the part of monetary authorities of the country, unilaterally or in concert with trading partners For instance a country facing a current account deficit may rise interest rates to attract short-term capital inflows to prevent depreciation of its currency, or tighten credit and money supply and make it difficult to borrow money to make investments abroad It may force exporters to realize export earnings quickly and bring home foreign currency Movements in a countrys reserves have implications for the stock of money and credit circulating in the economy Central banks purchases of foreign exchange in the market will add to the money supply and vice versa unless the central bank sterlises the impact by compensatory actions such as open market sales and purchases Countries suffering from chronic deficit may find their credit ratings being down graded Finally BOP accounts are intimately connected with over all saving- investment balance in a countrys national account Continuing deficits or surpluses may lead to fiscal and monetary actions designed to correct the imbalance, which in turn will affect the exchange rates and interest rates in the country
10. a. Explain broken date or odd date contracts IV- 64 3 marks
Though standard forward maturities are in a whole number of months, banks routinely offer forward contracts for maturities which are not whole months For ex,. delivery can be 73 days from the date of transaction Such contracts are called broken date or odd date contracts For some currency pairs forward contracts extending to five years are available
b. Describe swap transaction, forward-forward swap, outright forward
contract, in foreign exchange market IV-64 to 67 7marks A swap transaction in the foreign exchange market is a combination of a spot and a forward in the opposite direction Thus a bank will buy Euros against US dollar and simultaneously enter into a forward transaction with the same counterparty to sell Euros against US dollar A spot 60-day Dollar-Euro swap consist of a spot purchase (sale) of dollars against the Euro coupled with a 60-day forward sale (purchase) of dollar against Euro When both the transactions are forward transactions, we have forward- forward swap Thus a 1-3 month dollar-sterling swap will consist of purchase (sale) of sterling versus dollar one month forward coupled with a sale (purchase) of sterling versus dollar three months forward. As the term swap implies, it is a temporary exchange of one currency for another with an obligation to reverse it at a specific future date. Forward contracts without an accompanying spot deal are know as outright forward contracts to distinguish them from swaps It s estimated that about 40% of the turnover in the market is in the spot segment, 50% in swaps and the rest in outright forward contracts Outright forwards are most often used by corporations to cover their transactions exposures
c. Write a note on Types of transactions and settlement dates IV-53 to
63 10 marks Types of transactions and settlement dates: The settlement of a transaction takes place by transfer of deposits between the two parties The day on which these transfers are effected is called settlement date or the value date To effect the transfers, banks in the countries of the two currencies involved must be open for business The relevant countries are called settlement locations The locations of the banks involved in the trade are dealing locations which need not be the same as settlement locations Thus a London bank can sell Swiss francs against US dollar to a Paris bank Settlement locations may be New York and Geneva, while dealing locations are London and Paris The transaction can be settled only on a day on which both US and Swiss banks are open Depending upon the time elapsed between the transaction date and the settlement date, foreign exchange transaction can be categorised into spot and forward transactions A third category called swaps are combination of a spot and a forward transaction (or forward-forward swap i,.e., a combination of two forward transactions) In a spot transaction the settlement or value date is usually two business days ahead for European currencies and Asian currencies traded against dollar Thus if a London bank sells yen against dollar to a Paris bank on Monday, the London bank will turn over a yen deposit to the Paris bank on Wednesday and the Paris bank will transfer a dollar deposit to the London bank on the same day If SBI sells dollars against Rupee to HDFC bank on a Tuesday, on the following Thursday SBI will turn over a dollar deposit to HDFC and HDFC will turn over a Rupee deposit to SBI The time gap is necessary for conforming and clearing the deal through the communication network such as SWIFT (note that by the two business days ahead rule, deals done on a Thursday will be cleared on the following Monday, while deals done on Friday will have Tuesday of the following week as the value date if, Saturday and Sunday are bank holidays as they are in most financial centers) To reduce credit rate risk (i.e., one of the parties failing to deliver on its side of the trade), both transfers should take place on the same day In Dollar-Yen trade between the London and Paris banks done on Monday, if the following Wednesday happens to be a bank holiday in either Japan or US, the value date is shifted to the next available business day, in this case Thursday What about holidays in the dealing location? If Wednesday is a holiday in either UK or France, settlement day is again postponed to Thursday What if Tuesday is holiday in UK but not in France? Then two business days would mean Wednesday for the Paris bank but Thursday for London Bank In such cases the normal practice is, if the Paris bank made the market i.e., London bank called for a quote, the value date would be Wednesday while if London made the market it would be Thursday The settlement is reduced to one day for trades between currency pairs such as US dollar and Canadian dollar and US dollar and Mexican Peso Value dates for forward transactions: in a 1-month (or 30 days) forward purchase of say pounds against rupees, the rate of exchange is fixed on the transaction date; the value date is arrived as follows: First find the value date for a spot transaction between the same currencies done on the same day and add one calendar month to arrive at the value date Thus for a one month forward transaction entered into on say June 20, the corresponding spot value date is June 22 and one month forward value date is July 22, two months forward would be August 22 etc., Standard forward contract maturities are 1 week, 2 weeks, 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months The value dates are obtained by adding the relevant number of calendar months to the appropriate spot value date If the value date arrived at in such a manner is ineligible because of bank holidays, then like in spot deal it is shifted forward to the next eligible business day Important difference, roll forward must not take you into the next calendar month, in which case you must shift backward. Ex. Suppose 3-month forward contract struck on November 26, spot date is November 28, 3- months takes you to February 28, if February 28 is holiday (not a leap year), it must be rolled back to February 27 Though standard forward maturities are in a whole number of months, banks routinely offer forward contracts for maturities which are not whole months For ex,. delivery can be 73 days from the date of transaction Such contracts are called broken date or odd date contracts For some currency pairs forward contracts extending to five years are available
11. a. Explain short date transactions IV- 67 3 marks
Short date transactions are transactions which call for settlement before the spot date cash transactions are for settlement same date while some deals will involve settlements tomorrow i.e., one business day ahead when a spot deal would be settled two business days later
b. Discuss price takers, government interventions and speculation IV-
47 to 52 7 marks Finally there are price takers who take the prices quoted by primary makers and buy or sell currencies for their own purposes but do not make a market themselves Corporations use the foreign exchange market for a variety of purposes related to their operations Among these are payments for imports, conversion of export receipts, hedging of receivables and payables, payment of interest on foreign currency loans, placement of surplus funds etc.,
c. Discuss Exchange rate quotations and arbitrage IV- 70 to 80 10
marks Codes of selected currencies given below: USD: US dollar ; CHF: Swiss Franc GBP: British pound ; AUD: Australian dollar JPY: Japanese Yen ; MEP: Mexican Peso CAD: Canadian Dollar; SAR: Saudi Riyal SEK: Swedish Kroner INR: Indian rupee; NZD:New Zealand Dollar EUR: Euro IEP: Irish Pound (Punt) Spot Rate Quotations: European Terms: quotes given as number of units of a currency per US Dollar. Thus EUR 1.0275 per USD, CHF 1.4500 per USD, INR 46.75 per USD (CHF=swiss franc) American Terms: quotes given as number of US dollars per unit of currency Thus USD 0.4575 per CHF, USD 1.3542 per GBP Direct quotes: are those that give units of the currency of that country per unit of a foreign currency Thus INR 46.00 per USD is direct quote in India, USD 0.9810 per EUR is direct quote in US Indirect quotes: indirect or reciprocal quotes are stated as number of units of a foreign currency per unit of home currency thus USD 2.2560 per INR 100 is an indirect quote in India (note unit for rupee is 100), similarly Japanese Yen, Indonesian Rupiah may be in terms of 100 (reason is other wise we have to deal with small numbers) The inter-bank market uses quotation conventions adopted by Association Cambiste International The currency pair is denoted by three letter SWIFT (Society for Worldwide International Financial Telecommunication) codes for the two currencies separated by oblique or hyphen Ex. USD/CHF: US Dollar- Swiss Franc GBP/JPY: Great Britain Pound Japanese Yen The first currency in the pair is the base currency; the second is the quoted currency Thus in USD/CHF, US Dollar is the base currency, Swiss Franc is the quoted currency. The exchange rate quotation is given in number of units of the quoted currency per unit of the base currency Thus a USD/INR quotation will be given as a number of rupees per dollar, a GBP/USD quote will be given as number of dollars per pound A quotation consists of two prices the price shown on the left of the oblique or hyphen is the bid price, the one on the right is the ask or offer price The bid price is the price at which the dealer is giving the quote is prepared to buy-is bidding for one unit of the base currency against the quoted currency In other words it is the amount of quoted currency the dealer will give in return for one unit of the base currency For most currencies, quotation are given in European terms i.e., the base currency is the US dollar The major exception are EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD. These are quoted in American terms i.e., USD becomes the quoted currency against these In market parlance, a cross rate or just a cross is a quotation between two non-dollar currencies Thus GBP/CHF is a cross rate and so is EUR/INR In the US financial press gives quotations in both European and American terms Quotations in interbank markets are usually given up to five or six significant digits or four decimal places The last digit thus corresponds to (1/100)th of (1/100)th unit of the quoted currency Thus in USD/CHF bid rate 1.4550/1.4560 the last two digits viz 50 correspond to 0.0050 CHF The last two digits are called points or pips The difference between the offer rate and the bid rate is called the bid- offer spread or the bid-ask spread We say the bid ask spread in USD/CHF rate is ten points or ten pips If the USD/CHF rate moves to 1.4553/63, we say USD has moved three pips For small denominations currencies like JPY quotes are given up to 2 decimals only In such cases a point or pip has the value 0.01 or (1/100) of the quoted currency The quotations are usually shortened as follows: USD/CHF:1.4550/1.4560 given as 1.4550/60 When two dealers are conversing with each other this may be further shortened to 50/60 The first three digits viz., 1.45 are known as big figure and professional dealers are supposed to know what the big figure is at all times GBP/USD: 1.5365/72 means 1.5365/1.5372 This may further abbreviated to 65/72 Remember offer rate must always exceed bid rate
12. a. Explain spot rate quotations IV- 71,72 3 marks
Spot Rate Quotations: European Terms: quotes given as number of units of a currency per US Dollar. Thus EUR 1.0275 per USD, CHF 1.4500 per USD, INR 46.75 per USD (CHF=swiss franc) American Terms: quotes given as number of US dollars per unit of currency Thus USD 0.4575 per CHF, USD 1.3542 per GBP Direct quotes: are those that give units of the currency of that country per unit of a foreign currency Thus INR 46.00 per USD is direct quote in India, USD 0.9810 per EUR is direct quote in US Indirect quotes: indirect or reciprocal quotes are stated as number of units of a foreign currency per unit of home currency thus USD 2.2560 per INR 100 is an indirect quote in India (note unit for rupee is 100), similarly Japanese Yen, Indonesian Rupiah may be in terms of 100 (reason is other wise we have to deal with small numbers)
b. Discuss forward quotations IV-90 to 94 7 marks
Forward quotations: Outright Forwards: quotations for outright forward transactions are given in the same manner as spot quotations Thus quote like; (SEK=Swidish Krone) USD/SEK 3-month Forward;9.1570/9.1595 Means, as in the case of a similar spot quote, the bank will give SEK 9.1570 to buy a USD and require SEK 9.1595 to sell a dollar, delivery 3 months from the corresponding spot value date Discounts and premiums in the forward market: consider the following pair of spot and forward quotes: GBP/USD spot : 1.5677/1.5685 GBP/USD 1-month forward: 1.5575/1.5585 The pound is cheaper for delivery one month hence compared to spot pound The pound is said to be at a forward discount in relation to dollar or equivalently, the dollar is at a forward premium in relation to the pound With two-way quotations there is no unique way to quantify the discount or premium Let us define the annualized percentage discount on the pound implied in the above quotations as: [forward (GBP/USD)mid- Spot(GBP/USD)mid x 12 x 100/ Spot(GBP/USD)mid (1.5580-1.5681) x 12months x 100 % / 1.5681= = ( -)7.73% With this definition, for any quotation (A/B), a negative answer would indicate that currency B is at a forward premium vis--vis currency A whereas a positive answer would imply that B is at a forward discount against A The practitioners terminology may differ across markets When dealer says GBP on USD is at a premium it is usually interpreted to mean that the USD is at premium. NOTE: This usage is not universal Option forwards a standard forward contract calls for delivery on a specific day, the settlement date for the contract. In the inter-bank market, banks offer what are know as optional forward contracts or option forwards Here the contract is entered into at some time t0 , with the rate and quantities being fixed at this time but buyer has option to take or make delivery on any day between t1 and t2 with t2>t1>t0
c. Write a note covered interest arbitrage V-2 to 10 10 marks
Covered Interest Arbitrage: All interest rates in Euromarkets are given as annualised rates and interest calculations are done on as simple interest basis Thus an interest rate of 10% on 90-day Euro dollar deposit means that $1 put in such deposit gives $[1+0.10(90/360)] at the end of 90 days For some currencies, the basis is 365 and not 360 (for Euro dollar it is 360) Consider a Britisher who is choosing between Eurodollar deposits and Eurosterling deposit to place some surplus funds The investor does not want to incur any exchange rate risk To begin with we will assume there are no transaction costs This means that in foreign exchange market there are no bid-ask spreads and in the money market there is no difference between borrowing and lending rates We use following notation: S: the GBP/USD spot rate Fn: the GBP/USD forward rate for n-year maturity (n=1/12, 1/6, etc., for 1,2,3 months) iGBP=Annualised interest rate, stated as a fraction, on Eurosterling deposits of maturity n years iUSD: Annualised interest rate, stated as a fraction, Eurodollar n-year deposits If the investor puts GBP 1 in a n-year Eurosterling deposit, at maturity the value will be = GBP(1+niGBP) If the investor chooses to invest in Eurodollar and eliminate all exchange risk he must do the following: 1. convert sterling into dollars spot. Each sterling sold will give S dollars 2. invest the S dollars in n-Eurodollar deposit will have grown to $[(S)(1+niUSD)] 3. simultaneously enter into a n-year forward contract to sell the dollar proceeds of the deposit for sterling For sterling invested in this fashion, the maturity value is: GBP[(S)(1+niUSD)/(Fn)] S=amount of dollars obtained by converting GBP 1 spot, S(1+niUSD) is the maturity value of the dollars, which sold forward at Fn dollar per GBP yields the maturity value in sterling Suppose these are unequal, specifically suppose (1+niGBP)>(S/Fn)(1+niUSD) ----- eqn. x ie., [(1+ni GBP) (Fn/S)] > (1+niUSD)]----eqn. y Then British investor would find it profitable to invest in Eurosterling Not only that, all investors would find it profitable to liquidate dollar deposits or borrow dollars and invest in Euro sterling with forward cover To see this in Eurodollar deposit gives $(1+ni USD) at maturity while the same dollar invested on a covered basis in Eurosterling deposit gives $[(1/S)(1+niGBP)(Fn)] If Eqn y holds the Eurosterling exceeds If the rates are such that eqn.- y holds, and there are no restrictions on funds flow a large number of arbitragers would want to: 1. liquidate dollar deposits or borrow dollars 2. sell dollars and buy sterling in the spot market 3. invest sterling so acquired in Eurosterling deposits 4. Enter into forward contracts to sell the sterling in their deposit accounts against dollars The resulting market forces give rise to one or more of the following: 1. the dollar interest iUSD will tend to rise 2. dollar will tend to depreciate against sterling in the spot market i.e., S would increase 3. the Eurosterling interest rate iGBP, would fall 4. dollar would rise against the sterling in the n-year forward market i.e., Fn would fall these changes would continue till eqn-y hold equality In reverse case i.e., if (1+niGBP)<(S/Fn)(1+niUSD) Then covered investment in Eurodollar is more attractive and opposite forces will be initiated till again equality is stored Thus in efficient markets, covered investment in either currency would give the same return. There are no riskless arbitrage profits to be had This is the famous Covered Interest Parity Theorem