Probability Case Based Questions

1. One day, a sangeet mahotsav is to be organised in an open area of Rajasthan. In recent

years, it has rained only 6 days each year. Also, it is given that, when it actually rains,
the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 80% of the time. When it doesn't rain, he
incorrectly forecasts rain 20% of the time. Here, leap year is considered.

Based on the above information, attempt any 4 out of 5 subparts.

(i) The probability that it rains on chosen day is 1
1 1 1 1
(a) 366 (b) 73 (c) 60 (d) 61

(ii) The probability that it does not rain on chosen day is

1 5 360
(a) 366 (b) 366 (c) 366 (d) none of these

(iii) The probability that the weatherman predicts correctly is

5 7 4 1
(a) 6 (b) 8 (c) 5 (d) 5

(iv) The probability that it will rain on the chosen day, if weatherman predicts rain
for that day, is
(a) 0.0625 (b) 0.0725 (c) 0.0825 (d) 0.0925
(v) The probability that it will not rain on the chosen day. If weatherman predicts
rain for that day is
(a) 0.94 (b) 0.84 (c) 0.74 (d) 0.64
Solution

(i) (d): Since, it rained only 6 days each year, therefore, probability that it rains on chosen day is
6 1
366
= 61
1 60 360
(ii) (c): The probability that it does not rain on chosen day = 1 − 61 = 61 = 366
(iii) (c): It is given that, when it actually rains, the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 80% of the
time.

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 80 8 4
∴ Required probability = 100 = 10 = 5
(iv) (a): Let 𝐴1 be the event that it rains on chosen day, 𝐴2 be the event that it does not rain on
chosen day and 𝐸 be the event the weatherman predicts rain.
6 360
Then, we have, 𝑃(𝐴1 ) = 366 , 𝑃(𝐴2 ) = 366,
8 2
𝑃(𝐸 ∣ 𝐴1 ) = and 𝑃(𝐸 ∣ 𝐴2 ) =
10 10
Required probability = 𝑃(𝐴1 ∣ 𝐸)
𝑃(𝐴1 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐸 ∣ 𝐴1 )
=
𝑃(𝐴1 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐸 ∣ 𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐸 ∣ 𝐴2 )
6 8
366 × 10 48
= = = 0.0625
6 8 360 2 768
× +
366 10 366 10 ×
(v) (a): Required probability = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴1 ∣ 𝐸)
= 1 − 0.0625 = 0.9375 ≈ 0.94

2. In an office three employees Vinay, Sonia and Iqbal process incoming copies of a
certain form. Vinay process 50% of the forms, Sonia processes 20% and Iqbal the
remaining 30% of the forms. Vinay has an error rate of 0.06, Sonia has an error rate of
0.04 and Iqbal has an error rate of 0.03.

Based on the given information, answer the following questions.

(i) The conditional probability that an error is committed in processing given that
Sonia processed the form is
(a) 0.0210 (b) 0.04 (c) 0.47 (d) 0.06
(ii) The probability that Sonia processed the form and committed an error is (a)
0.005 (a) 0.005 (b) 0.006 (c) 0.008 (d)
0.68
(iii) The total probability of committing an error in processing the form is
(a) 0 (b) 0.047 (c) 0.234 (d) 1

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 (iv) The manager of the company wants to do a quality check. During inspection
he selects a form at random from the days output of processed forms. If the
form selected at random has an error, the probability that the form is NOT
processed by Vinay is
30 20 17
(a) 1 (b) 47 (c) 47 (d) 47

(v) Let A be the event of committing an error in processing the form and let E1, E2
and E3 be the events that Vinay, Sonia and Iqbal processed the form. The
value of ∑3𝑖=1 𝑝(𝐸𝑖 |𝐴) is
(a) 0 (b) 0.03 (c) 0.06 (d) 1
[CBSE 2020-21]
Solution

Let 𝐴 be the event of commiting an error and 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 and 𝐸3 be the events that Vinay, Sonia and lqbal
processed the form.
(i) (b) : Required probability = 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐸2 )

20
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸2 ) (0.04 × 100)
= = = 0.04
𝑃(𝐸2 ) 20
(100)

(ii) (c) : Required probability = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸2 )

20
= 0.04 × = 0.008
100

(iii) (b) : Total probability is given by

𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐸2 ) + 𝑃(𝐸3 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐸3 )

50 20 30
= × 0.06 + × 0.04 + × 0.03 = 0.047
100 100 100

(iv) (d): Using Bayes' theorem, we have

𝑃(𝐸1 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐸1 )
𝑃(𝐸1 ∣ 𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐸1 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐸2 ) + 𝑃(𝐸3 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐸3 )
0.5 × 0.06 30
= =
0.5 × 0.06 + 0.2 × 0.04 + 0.3 × 0.03 47
∴ Required probability = 𝑃(𝐸‾1 ∣ 𝐴)
30 17
= 1 − 𝑃(𝐸1 ∣ 𝐴) = 1 − =
47 47

(v)

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(d): ∑ 𝑃(𝐸𝑖 ∣ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ∣ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ∣ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐸3 ∣ 𝐴)

𝑖=1
=1

[ ∵ Sum of posterior probabilities is 1]

3. An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two classes: those
who are accident prone and those who are not. The company's statistics show that an
accident-prone person will have an accident sometime within a fixed one-year period
with probability 0.6, whereas this probability is 0.2 for a person who is not accident
prone. The company knows that 20 percent of the population is accident prone.

Based on the given information, answer the following questions.

(i) What is the probability that a new policyholder will have an accident within a
year of purchasing a policy?
(ii) Suppose that a new policyholder has an accident within a year of purchasing a
policy. What is the probability that he or she is accident prone?
[CBSE SQP 2021-22]

Solution

Let 𝐸1 = The policyholder is accident prone.

𝐸2 = The policyholder is not accident prone.
𝐸 = The new policyholder has an accident withing a year of purchasing a policy.
(i)

𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ) × 𝑃(𝐸/𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ) × 𝑃(𝐸/𝐸2 )

20 6 80 2 7
= × + × =
100 10 100 10 25

(ii) Using Bayes' Theorem, we have 𝑃(𝐸1 /𝐸)

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 20 6
𝑃(𝐸1 ) × 𝑃(𝐸/𝐸1 ) 100 × 10 3
= = =
𝑃(𝐸) 7 7
25

4. A student is preparing for the competitive examinations of LIC AAO, SSC CGL and
Bank P.O. The probabilities that the student is selected independently in competitive
examinations of LIC AAO, SSC CGL and Bank P.O. are a, b and c respectively. Of
these examinations, students have 50% chance of selection in at least one, 40%
chance of selection in at least two and 30% chance of selection in exactly two
examinations.

Based on the given information, answer the following questions.

(i) Find the value of 𝑎 + 𝑏 + 𝑐 − 𝑎𝑏 − 𝑏𝑐 − 𝑐𝑎 + 𝑎𝑏𝑐.
(ii) Find the value of 𝑎𝑏 + 𝑏𝑐 + 𝑎𝑐 − 2𝑎𝑏𝑐.
Solution

Let 𝐴 be the event that the student is selected for LIC AAO, B be the event that the student is
selected for SSC CGL and C be the event that the student is selected for Bank P.O.
Then, 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑎, 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑏 and 𝑃(𝐶) = 𝑐
(i) We have, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 0.5
̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
⇒ 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 ) = 0.5
⇒ 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵‾ ∩ 𝐶‾ ) = 0.5
‾
⇒ 1 − 𝑃(𝐴‾) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐵‾) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐶‾) = 0.5
⇒ 1 − (1 − 𝑎)(1 − 𝑏)(1 − 𝑐) = 0.5

[Since, 𝑃(𝐴), 𝑃(𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐶) are independent events]

⇒ 1 − [(1 − 𝑎 − 𝑏 + 𝑎𝑏)(1 − 𝑐)] = 0.5
⇒ 1 − [1 − 𝑐 − 𝑎 + 𝑎𝑐 − 𝑏 + 𝑏𝑐 + 𝑎𝑏 − 𝑎𝑏𝑐] = 0.5
⇒ 𝑎 + 𝑏 + 𝑐 − 𝑎𝑏 − 𝑏𝑐 − 𝑐𝑎 + 𝑎𝑏𝑐 = 0.5
(ii) We have, 𝑃 (selection in at least two competitive exams) = 0.4

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 ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶‾) + 𝑃(𝐴‾ ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵‾ ∩ 𝐶) +
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 0.4

⇒ 𝑎𝑏(1 − 𝑐) + (1 − 𝑎)𝑏𝑐 + 𝑎(1 − 𝑏)𝑐 + 𝑎𝑏𝑐 = 0.4

⇒ 𝑎𝑏 − 𝑎𝑏𝑐 + 𝑏𝑐 − 𝑎𝑏𝑐 + 𝑎𝑐 − 𝑎𝑏𝑐 + 𝑎𝑏𝑐 = 0.4

⇒ 𝑎𝑏 + 𝑏𝑐 + 𝑎𝑐 − 2𝑎𝑏𝑐 = 0.4

5. In a game of Archery, each ring of the Archery target is valued. The centremost ring
is worth 10 points and rest of the rings are allotted points 9 to 1 in sequential order
moving outwards.
Archer A is likely to earn 10 points with a probability of 0.8 and Archer B is likely to
earn 10 points with a probability of 0.9.

Based on the above information, answer the following questions:

If both of them hit the Archery target, then find the probability that
(a) exactly one of them earns 10 points.
(b) both of them earn 10 points.
[CBSE 2021-22]

Solution

a) We have, 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.8, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.9

𝑃( exactly one of them earn 10 points ) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 2𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 2𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)
(∵ A& B are independent)
= 0.8 + 0.9 − 0.8 × 0.9 × 2
= 0.26
(b) 𝑃 (both of them earn 10 points ) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) = 0.8 × 0.9 = 0.72

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