14 March 2024

Published by
Profercy Ltd

DEVELOPMENTS
Global Urea Position
Global urea values have moved lower again with fob prices notably easing in North P2 Baltic: Prilled product
Africa and the Middle East. Cfr prices have adjusted in markets where nearby directed to Africa/Latam
demand is light. However, news of India’s anticipated return represents a positive for
producers, while some in the east have managed to extend sales into April. P2 N Africa: Egyptian
producers look to long-
While yet to be announced, anticipated demand from India is expected to target
haul markets
shipments through to second half-May. This potentially offers an outlet for eastern
granular producers, as well as Russian prilled suppliers. P4 Middle East: Spot
Egyptian granular has finally been directed to long-haul markets with sales taking cargoes placed for April,
place in the mid-$360s pt fob and offers for Europe up to $5pt higher. Recent fob values move lower
shipments include those for Argentina and the US Gulf for March. Slow European
P4 SE Asia: Petronas set to
demand has proved a frustration for many. resume production at two
This sluggish European demand has also seen offers ex-Black Sea sub-$350pt fob units next week
with only small volumes sold recently.
P4 China: CIQ confusion
Russian prilled producers have placed end-March/April material into both Africa and prohibits export
Latin America, including via the recent Incofe tender, with latest prices around $300- discussions
310pt fob Baltic. There have been suggestions of lower priced sales.
Middle East granular has been sold in the $360s pt fob with 45,000t of Qatari P5 Europe: Business slow
product sold for April midweek. Last week Australian demand supported sales at
P5 USA: Nearby avails tight
$370pt fob. The latest business is expected to be for Australia or Thailand. SE Asian in Nola
supply is set to improve with two Petronas facilities due to resume production next
week. P7 L America: Egyptian
Tight nearby supply and just-in-time terminal demand has kept Nola barge values at product destined for
Argentina
high levels. Prompt barges have traded up to $411ps ton fob Nola, $447pt cfr metric
equivalent, with first half April concluded either side of $380ps ton. Vessel delays, P8 Ethiopia: EABC closes
earlier production losses and tight upriver inventory are supporting values. There is retender
some debate over whether supply will remain tight into April given the US Gulf is
attracting offshore tonnes and the import line-up growing. For the moment, full April P8 India: Tender
barge values are at a major discount to prompt with last done in the low-$350s ps announcement expected
ton. soon
Latin American inquiry has been light, although soft demand for Mexico and P8 UAN: US markets firm,
Argentina is circulating. The offseason Brazilian market has seen little business with France stable
some isolated indications for April at a $15-20pt discount to prompt offers around
$390pt cfr. P9 Nitrates: CF Industries
announces May prices
Fob values ease as eastern producers commit April tonnes and Egyptian
$pt producers look to long-haul markets P10 Amsul: US Gulf prices
550 surge to $355ps ton fob
Nola on supply shortage
500
P13 Profercy International
450 Prices
400

350

300

250

200 Egypt Granular Urea fob Baltic Prilled Urea fob Middle East Granular Spot fob

150
J 23 F M A M J J A S O N D J 24 F M

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 Black Sea/Caspian Sea
Urea Supply - West Black Sea: SOCAR closed a tender midweek for
25,000t of granular urea for March shipment.
Baltic Mixed reports have emerged following the tender with
some suggesting that the producer offered down to
While news of a seemingly imminent Indian purchasing
$345pt fob but received only limited interest.
tender will be welcomed by prilled urea producers, they
have not been holding back availability ahead of firm One trader has been linked with a purchase for a
tender news. smaller 5,000t lot with the price stated to be in the mid-
$340s pt fob. However, other reports suggest that a
Instead, business has been concluded into several
sale was concluded at marginally higher levels.
markets. Producers have not been aggressively
lowering prices but have shown a degree of flexibility in Netbacks basis offers from nearby cfr markets reflect
order to fill order books. lower than the producer’s price ideas.
Sporadic bits of ongoing demand from Latin America As reported previously, two 30,000t cargoes of granular
and sales of medium sized cargoes into Africa this urea were committed last week to long haul markets at
week and last have eased supply pressures. comparable levels to the price ideas in the latest tender.
At least another 40,000t of prilled business has been Despite the sales, a degree of supply pressure
concluded across 2-3 suppliers for Africa and Latin continues to weigh on producers following weeks of
America. inactivity. Producers had been waiting and hoping for
an uptick in European demand which has not yet
Despite the sales, any future Indian tender is expected
occurred.
to see sizeable participation from Baltic prilled urea
producers, particularly if shipments windows extend to On a positive for producers, the long-haul sales have
45-60 days. lowered availability for European markets.
Latest business is largely rangebound with recent Tuapse: A freight inquiry is circulating for 25,000t of
weeks at around $300-310pt fob for prilled urea. urea from Tuapse to Tema, Ghana for first half April
shipment. EuroChem has been by far the main
For granular urea, the bulk of March volumes have
producer to export urea from Tuapse.
been committed to the USA by several producers.
Full April barge (late March shipment onwards) values Africa/Mediterranean
in the USA have been at a sizeable discount to earlier Egypt: Following several weeks of deferrals by
laycans. As a result, the US Gulf is not as attractive a producers in the hope of a turnaround in European
prospect for April shipments, at least for now. markets, producers and traders have relented with at
Indeed, there have been reports of producers once least two cargoes committed to long-haul markets in the
again targeting European markets following a brief past 7-10 days.
hiatus. Abu Qir committed a 30,000t cargo of granular urea for
Granular urea is unlikely to feature in the upcoming March shipment to a non-European market. No price
Indian tender given the relatively wide spread between details nor the destination have been revealed.
prilled and granular urea values. Prior to news of the sale, a trader had been checking
In terms of values, fob prices continue to be directly freight for a mid-March shipment to Argentina with this
impacted by cfr movements in western markets. believed to be against recent business.

Acron: The producer is expected to continue to focus The above business followed news of an earlier sale
on the US Gulf markets for April and May cargoes. last week by two producers ex-Egypt to a trader for a
comparable sized cargo of granular urea for March
In the last Indian purchasing tender from early January, shipment to the US Gulf with freight put around $30pt.
Acron supplied one cargo of prilled urea. A similar One of the producers involved in the sale is reported to
commitment of prilled urea is deemed possible in any be Alexfert.
future tender.
While firm price details have been lacking, offers for
Salavat: The producer is committed until May for long-haul markets have recently been in the $360s pt
granular urea. The March cargo was shipped to the fob with most recent business put at $365pt fob.
USA while the April cargo has been committed to a
western market.

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Producers have been unwilling to offer at these prices similar volume this month. A third vessel with 30,000t,
for European markets, although many concede that the Saint Vassilios, is also in the line-up.
European demand has been sluggish. Latest price
Last concluded spot business took place last week.
ideas for Europe have been reported at $370pt fob.
Spot demand had been evident for Canada, while some
Shipments to long-haul markets had been widely buyers had been checking options for Latin America. At
anticipated owing to the weak European demand. This the time, long haul offers were around $380pt fob.
required a substantial price adjustment from producers.
Nigeria: Neither Indorama nor Dangote have been
Over the last two weeks, producers have reduced price
offering for April shipment with the former already
ideas by around $30-40pt from $400pt fob.
having placed at least one cargo previously down to
Production – the Kima facility experienced a decline in $350pt fob. For April, offtake cargoes are most likely to
output from 8-13 March owing to reduced gas pressure be shipped to the USA, unless Latin American markets
from the national grid. present better opportunities.
The ammonia and urea plant operating rates dropped to As noted last week, Indorama has skipped recent
around 70% of capacity. For the urea plant, this EABC business. There are reports that a March cargo
equates to around 500t/day or a combined 2,500t is available for sale.
across the five-day stoppage.
CHS is in the freight market for a granular urea vessel
The facility is capable of producing around from Onne to Nola, loading mid-March. This is expected
570,000t/year of granular urea. to be an offtake cargo.
No other producer experienced production issues. Of
note, Kima’s plant is located in Upper Egypt, away from
most of the other producers.
Algeria: March shipments are committed with
discussions over April cargoes yet to take place in any
meaningful way. Interest in possible shipments to the
USA has, to a degree, been impacted by recent vessel
loading delays. Indeed, some cargoes have been
pushed back.
Three vessels are set to load in Arzew for the USA
according to port data. This includes the Valovine with
45-50,000t, with the Common Calypso due to load a

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 around $370pt fob. A further cargo is destined for India
Urea Supply – East under contract business.
SIUCI is understood to be targeting $370pt fob for a
Middle East May shipment.
Middle East: Spot values have come off over the past Earlier SIUCI shipments for March are destined for
two weeks with February highs of $385pt fob now out of Australia, while at least one April cargo is also expected
sight. Last concluded business has taken place around to be directed to Australia.
in the $360s pt fob with one 45,000t April granular
shipment sold at this level. This sales price is down on Saudi Arabia: Sabic AN is committed with contract
earlier business for April at $370pt fob, a level targeted cargoes for the time being.
by a number of producers this week. Iran: With weather improving and temperatures
Producers are not under significant near-term pressure. increasing, the majority of producers have been able to
April has, however, come into focus and a number have resume production. This includes MIS and Lordegan.
moved in recent weeks to place spot availability. As is often the case, cold weather, as well as
Having swallowed up a considerable portion of January maintenance works, have impacted operating rates in
through March availability, Australian buyers are less Iran since the beginning of the year, reducing export
hungry, even if further business is anticipated soon. availability.

India’s emergence will no doubt benefit producers. This Official quotes have been at $340-345pt fob since the
said, this would once again pit Middle East granular end of February, although no export business has been
against Russian prilled urea. Unlike much of Q1, SE reported. Traders with positions have been offering as
Asian availability is set to be greater. much as $15-20pt lower. Some reports suggest at least
one producer has been indicating at $330pt fob. No
Qatar: Qatar Energy closed a sales tender midweek for sales have been reported with bids for product at or
45,000t of granular urea for April shipment. The cargo is below $320pt fob rejected.
understood to have been sold, although there have
been mixed reports regarding the price. While some SE Asia/China
suggest business was concluded in the high-$360s pt
fob, most put the figure lower with most recent reports SE Asia: March granular urea availability in the region
pointing to a sales price of close to $365pt fob. Some is limited to product held by traders in Indonesia,
put the figure at a lower level, down to $360pt fob. although there have been reports of offers of BFI
material into some regional markets. Netbacks from
No buyer has been identified, but market reports recent granular urea business are in the $370s pt fob.
suggest the vessel is destined for either Thailand or
Australia. In Malaysia, Petronas now expects the Bintulu and
Gurun facilities to resume production from next week.
Several regular participants in such tenders did not Production at the Bintulu facility halted in February
submit bids with others bidding sub-$360pt fob. owing to a technical issue shortly after maintenance
Koch is in the freight market for a contract cargo of works were completed.
45,000t of granular urea for shipment to Paranagua, The Gurun unit began planned maintenance works in
loading first week April. the first week of February. At the time these were
UAE: Fertiglobe has not been linked with any recent expected to last for 45-60 days.
business with April shipments believed to be available. The Bintulu unit has a nameplate granular urea capacity
Some contract cargoes are likely to be in the line-up, of 660,000t/year while the Gurun unit has a capacity of
including those for Australia. 700,000t/year.
Bahrain: March shipments are committed following In Brunei, BFI is reported to have informed several
earlier business for Thailand and Australia. April buyers that April is largely committed, although there
appears open, with most expecting this to be committed have been no details regarding sales, nor indeed sales
on formula. Product will likely remain in the east. prices. A number of offtakers are due to ship small
Meanwhile, GPIC produced 751,200t of urea in 2023, vessels to Thailand.
while exports totalled nearly 782,000t due to carryover Some have speculated that a turnaround may impact
from 2022. The producer did not provide comparative availability in April, but this has not been confirmed. BFI
figures for the year prior. does not typically comment on such matters.
Oman: One cargo of Omifco material is destined for Indonesia’s Pupuk Holdings scrapped last week’s
Australia end-March/early-April following an earlier sale prilled urea sales tender for 14-15,000t for March

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shipment. The producer was heard targeting last done France: Latest quotes in La Pallice are put down to
against best bids in the low-$360s pt fob. One March €375-380pt FCA, down €5pt on those last week. Some
granular urea cargo is destined for Latin America under suppliers are comfortable for March, but discussions
earlier business, with traders holding smaller volumes over April movement are not advanced.
committing tonnes into Thailand and other SE Asian
Spain: The first urea application is reported to have
markets. There has been no news regarding further
concluded over the last week or so. The season thus far
granular or prilled urea sales tenders.
has been significantly better than 2023 when severe
China: The domestic market has been stable to firm drought had a major negative impact on demand.
with seasonal demand evident. This is expected to
However, the demand has fallen short of some
continue until mid-April/May, subject to region. Current
predictions with distributors being left with carryover
domestic values for prilled urea reflect around $330pt
stocks, contrary to earlier expectations.
fob, a notable discount on prevailing international
values. Latest quotes in Shandong have been around UK: Demand for urea remains sluggish with markets
Rmb 2,230-2,240pt ex-works. relatively inactive. Price ideas remain largely
unchanged at £350-355pt cpt.
Operating rates are still high with daily production at
187-188,000t/day, above comparable levels in March Italy: No notable import inquiry is circulating with most
2022 and 2023. This has naturally led to speculation purchasing taking place on a warehouse basis.
regarding export availability once domestic demand
Eastern Europe: Buyers in Romania have been
eases.
targeting $380pt cfr duty paid for next shipments of
For the time being, export discussions are still limited. granular urea. Some unconfirmed reports indicate
Earlier guidance from authorities that CIQ inspections business may have been concluded at this level.
could start from mid-March, albeit taking 40 working
Turkey: Import demand has been slow with the market
days, has been superseded by reports that suppliers
focused on nitrates. Buyers continue to cite offers of
have been requested not to submit product for
Iranian material at $350-355pt cfr duty unpaid, level
inspection. Inspections earlier than May are not
with recent weeks.
anticipated.
Indeed, earlier guidance had advised that inspection North America
times from first half May would be 10 days. The US Gulf: The nearby market remains tight, with prompt
guidance does not dramatically change anticipated values advancing to $410-411ps ton fob Nola and
trade balances with few believing large shipments were supported by high terminal values in several key upriver
possible prior to first half/mid-May. markets, including Inola and Catoosa. Earlier
Broadly, with the market approaching peak season production issues and loading delays at some US
demand, most believe authorities have been reluctant producers are playing a role, as are delayed vessels
to fully commit to an export policy until demand for the and discharge delays in Nola. Just in time buying at
coming season can be quantified. several terminals is also a contributory factor.

Suppliers are taking a cautious approach to export This demand for loaded barges as been evident
discussions. Many are not yet quoting, although interest through the week.
in May/June shipments is lacking. Indications have As demonstrated by the graph on the next page, the
been either side of $360pt fob for prilled urea. values of all major nitrogen products have firmed in the
past month.
As has been the case in recent weeks, deferred
Urea Demand – West material is available at a discount. April barges have
been close to $60ps ton cheaper than prompt barges.
Europe/Med First half April values have fluctuated around $377-
European demand has been sluggish for some time. 380ps ton, although ahead of presstime business took
Weather has played a role in many markets, while a place down to $360ps ton.
number of importers are content with stocks. Nitrates Uncertainty over demand in April, due to weather, is a
are also available with domestic production at factor weighing on deferred values, but many are also
comfortable levels, in contrast to previous years. concerned that the end-April/May line-up will grow
Broadly, any import inquiry has been for last minute significantly. North African and Russian product could
shipments with few ready to discuss April cargoes of feature prominently.
granular urea. Warehouse offers are soft, even if In business this week:
suppliers have not been chasing business aggressively.

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• Loaded/Prompt: $408, $410-411ps ton
• March: $402-404, $405-410ps ton US Gulf/East Coast Actual and Anticipated
Imports (‘000t)
• 1-5 April: $323-385ps ton
Origin Volume
• Fh April: $360, $377, $380ps ton July-
53
• April: $353ps ton, $360ps ton December
Aug 142
Imports – total July 2023-January 2024 urea imports
Sept 271
were 2.16m. tonnes, up 273,000t or 13% year on year.
October 399
Excluding Canada, total offshore imports over the same
November 252
period were 1.83m. tonnes, up 196,000t year on year.
December 310
Russia has been the main supplier with 577,000t, up January 365
from the 195,000t supplied over the same period last February 373
season. Volumes from Qatar totalled 482,000t with March S Arabia 100
Algeria and Saudi Arabia supplying 289,000t and Qatar 150
237,000t, respectively. Russia 180
In January, 473,000t arrived including 46,000t from Oman 50
Canada. Qatar was the main supplier with 140,000t and Algeria 50
was followed by Algeria with 125,000t and Russia with Nigeria 60
116,000t. Another 27,000t arrived from Indonesia. Of Trinidad 30
note, there were no imports from Saudi Arabia in 620
January. April S Arabia 100
Qatar 150
While July through January imports are marginally
Oman 50
ahead of last year, domestic production rates in
Algeria 140
January are expected to have been below normal levels
owing to cold weather with several producers affected. Nigeria 70
Trinidad 10
US Gulf Granular Urea: Recent Daily Price Russia 150
Assessments ($ps ton) 670
Jul-Apr 2023-2024 3,455
Date Low High Jul-Apr 2022-2023 3,144
8 March 395 400 2023/2024 versus
+311
11 March 377 404 2022/2023
12 March 380 410
13 March 377 411
14 March 360 410

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Canada: Since the last round of purchases by Sollio Last week, the firm said its two ammonia and urea
and Sylvite, understood to have been covered in part production bases in the northern states of Bahia and
ex-Algeria, import demand has been slow. A number of Sergipe had ceased activity and it will lay off staff while
cargoes are due to arrive in March and April. also undertaking maintenance work to preserve its
manufacturing assets.
July-January urea imports were 590,000t, down 97,000t
year on year. The overall decline was almost exactly in “Despite efforts from various sectors, such as
line with the drop in imports from the USA which were federations and business associations, companies, and
262,000t. Algeria supplied another 130,000t with political parties, natural gas price in Brazil still is among
Turkmenistan supplying 87,000t. In January, 95,000t of the highest in the world, costing up to six times more
urea arrived of which 53,000t were from the USA and than in Middle East and United States,” the company
25,000t were from Algeria. said.
“Regarding the tolling contract, which still depends on
Latin America the fulfilment of precedent conditions to take effect, it
Brazil: The offseason market has been largely dormant has been submitted for analysis by the Federal Court of
with only small volume inquiries circulating. Traders Auditors due to internal governance issues related to
have sought to open up discussions over April Petrobras, of which Unigel is unaware and does not
shipments while some forward business has also been participate in, having acted in good faith and in
considered. regularity during this negotiation.

For March, there has been an absence of offers with “It is worth noting that, concerning the tolling
those offering not doing so sub-$390pt cfr and a agreement, once the precedent conditions are met, the
number quoting higher. Few cargoes are available company may reconsider the resumption of production.”
near-term. Unigel’s Camacari site in Bahia comprises a 475,000t
Buyers have been unwilling to bid close to these levels per year ammonia plant and an identical capacity urea
with many instead targeting later shipments and bidding line, while in the adjacent state of Sergipe, the firm
in the $360s pt cfr. One full April indication has been operates a 450,000t per year ammonia unit and
circulating at $370pt cfr from a regular offtake supplier associated 600,000t per year urea facility.
with some others targeting $15pt higher. The former also produces various chemicals, while the
Midweek there were claims of Venezuelan granular latter plant at Laranjeiras also produces up to 320,000t
urea being sold sub-$360pt cfr. These reports have not per year of ammonium sulphate.
been confirmed and many suggest the business fell Mexico: West coast inquiry has been limited of late,
through. This product typically trades at a discount with with little major business taking place since the last
few buyers able to source from Venezuela directly. round of sales in the $405-415pt cfr range. One trader
Imports – January-February urea imports were 1.20m. with a Middle East cargo has been linked with offers
tonnes, up 17% or 174,000t year on year. Nigeria down to $405pt cfr lately with some since claiming
topped the list of suppliers with 286,000t and was offers have been lower. Tepeyac is reportedly checking
followed by Qatar with 197,000t. Oman/Iran supplied for an April shipment.
165,000t with another 106,000t from Russia. Algeria, East coast inquiry has been dominated by Russian
Bahrain and Venezuela supplied 95,000t, 87,000t and supply for some time with no further granular done
84,000t, respectively. Bolivia supplied 73,000t, a since last week. Earlier granular values were in the
sizeable volume compared to recent years with $385-390pt cfr range. Prills values are still in the $360s
production in the country inconsistent. pt cfr.
In February, 490,000t arrived, up 40% or 141,000t from Central America: Incofe closed a tender last week for a
February 2023 but below the 738,000t imported in combination cargo of prilled and granular urea along
February 2022. Nigeria and Venezuela were the top two with AN for 1-10 April shipment to four ports on the west
suppliers with 119,000t and 84,000t, respectively. coast. The buyer was seeking 16,500t of granular urea,
Russia, Algeria and Oman/Iran supplied 70,000t, 5,500t of prilled urea with an option for 5,500t of AN.
66,000t and 63,000t, respectively.
Two traders have been linked with sales of Russian
Production – Unigel has confirmed the recent material with offers for the prilled urea put in the $380s
suspension of operations at its two factories due to high pt cfr. Freight from the Baltic is put at around $85-90pt.
natgas costs is seen as “temporary”, with resumption
possible if a feedstock tolling agreement with energy Argentina: One cargo of Egyptian granular appears set
giant Petrobras goes ahead. for shipment in March under recent business. No cfr
sales have taken place recently with the latest cargo

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likely booked to cover earlier sales. Egyptian product Any tender will be welcomed by Russian prilled
benefits from a duty advantage in Argentina. suppliers, as well as eastern granular suppliers. China’s
participation would not be guaranteed, although a
Further inquiry is set to emerge for April shipments.
lengthy shipment window could leave the door open for
business.

Urea Demand – East SE Asia: Granular import demand has been light. The
slower pace of demand is widely attributed to the
sizeable volumes booked earlier for January and
Africa
February shipment. Indeed, Thailand took several spot
Ethiopia: EABC invited a further round of offers cargoes ex-Middle East during this period.
midweek for a 50,000t granular urea cargo for March
In the Philippines, Atlas is in the market for 6,000t of
arrival at Djibouti – formerly lot 1 in the earlier retender
prilled for shipment by 20 April to Sangi and Davao port.
for a total of 365,000t for delivery through to June.
Atlas closed a tender late last week for 6,000t of
Having countered bids for all lots previously at $383pt
granular urea for shipment by 10 April. The lowest offer
cfr, EABC sought offers at this level or lower in this
for the granular urea is reported at around $400pt cfr.
week’s inquiry.
The buyer required shipment to Iloilo and Bataan ports
One bid, from West Trade, is reported to have been with freight from SE Asian fob markets up to $30pt.
marginally below the target, although it is not clear
South Korea: Pungnong is in the market for a prompt
whether this was for a cargo for arrival by end-March.
shipment of 6,000t of granular urea for Janghang port.
Three other suppliers submitted offers at higher levels
The buyer closed a tender today (14 March) with offers
with a number sending regrets.
to be valid until 15 March.
Carter Brown is understood to have received an award
Recent import demand for small lots of granular urea
under the earlier tender for lots 2 and 3. This would
has been covered ex-Indonesia. This has included a
require shipment in March. The company previously
small 4,000t lot booked in the earlier Pupuk sales
offered at $392pt cfr in the tender.
tender for March shipment.
Previous tenders have seen product supplied basis
Australia: Several importers have been checking the
shipment from Egypt, Nigeria, the Middle East and
market for April shipments, although few have been
China, although few expect the latest offers and awards
ready to bid firm. The extent of earlier purchases, and a
to be basis shipment from these origins.
recent slowdown in domestic purchases, has calmed
While the volumes booked by EABC influence global import demand. The last round of spot purchases took
trade balances, the nature of the business often place when Middle East values were in the $380s pt fob
ensures that tender prices are to a degree disconnected for March shipment.
from those elsewhere.
Some believe that the recent sale of 45,000t of granular
A retender for lots 4 through 7 is widely anticipated. urea for April shipment ex-Qatar is for the Australian
market.
Asia/Pacific Rim
Imports – Urea imports in January were 117,000t, well
India: News midweek pointed to the emergence of a above the 48,000t imported in January 2023. Qatar and
fresh urea import tender in the coming days. Saudi Arabia were the main suppliers with 31,000t and
A number of reports inform there has been further 23,000t, respectively. Brunei, Malaysia and the UAE
movement at the Department of Fertilizers with RCF supplied another 18-20,000t each.
likely to hold the tender.
The tender is widely expected to target shipments
through to 20-31 May. UAN
Given the market has been anticipating a tender for France: The market has been dull for some time with
some time, many have been cautious regarding reports. suppliers struggling to find liquidity since the beginning
Indeed, current stock levels in India are at relatively of the year.
healthy levels, over 7m. tonnes, while production rates
Weather has played a major role in delaying the final
have consistently been around 2.8m. tonnes/month,
round of demand with many yet to commit product in
well above monthly domestic requirements for much of
place for the first round of application.
Q2.
Domestically produced product was offered in the mid-
€230s pt FCA last week, although one producer and

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several others are now quoting €240pt FCA. There 2023. As reported yesterday, UAN values have trended
have been reports of some modest sales at or close to higher since mid-February.
this level. After the latest assessment window closed,
Canada: July-January UAN imports were 54,000t, down
there were reports of some quoting €245pt FCA.
84,000t year on year. All of the imports this campaign
Earlier, there has been quotes down to €235pt FCA for
have been from the USA. Of note, 57,000t arrived from
30% in the market.
Trinidad between July 2022 and January 2023 while
Import arrivals have been slow of late with Lithuanian this season there have been no imports.
material directed to long-haul markets and Russian
Australia: There were no UAN imports in January. As
suppliers focused on the USA.
reported previously, a March cargo is understood to
Baltic: Russian suppliers continue to ship material to have been sourced ex-Lithuania.
the US market, primarily the coasts. Netbacks have
been at healthy levels for some time.
Achema has been focused on long-haul business for Nitrates
much of March. As reported previously, cargoes have
been committed to Canada and Australia. Offers had European market activity continues to move along at a
been circulating in the USA, but led to no business. slow but steady pace. Producers have maintained
prices throughout most of Q1 with only rare/occasional
Argentina: YPF was in the market this week for a price announcements taking place. This includes the
7,000t lot of UAN for April shipment. US product was price increase from CF Industries in the UK in the past
reportedly committed, although no price details are week.
available.
Elsewhere, the return of Russian producers to the
USA: In stark contrast to Europe, the market is stable to export market from mid-April is riddled with uncertainty
firm in Nola, along the river and the coasts. With regard over logistics. Only one port appears to be available for
to the latter, suppliers appear content regarding supply the use of AN exports with this likely to lead to
for the first wave of demand, but there are doubts significant congestion as most producers seek to
regarding availability for future demand. export.
East coast values have been around $300pt cfr for UK: CF Industries returned to the market earlier this
some time. US suppliers have not been actively offering week with offers for its AN at £330pt cpt merchant for
from vessels while Russian product appears largely May deliveries only. The producer is reportedly sold out
committed. for March and April deliveries. CF pulled offers for April
In Nola, UAN barges are quoted at $285ps ton fob deliveries last week at £315-320pt cpt merchant.
Nola, $40ps ton above earlier season lows. Again, Meanwhile, importers of AN were selling small lots of
offshore suppliers and producers are not under AN for prompt/March deliveries at $340-345pt cpt farm
pressure to place product. prior to the CF announcement. Soon after, prices came
Terminal values are at comparable levels at several under pressure and were revised down to £330-335pt
places along the river. Ohio River quotes are up to cpt farm for March and April deliveries. Despite the
$310-315ps ton ex-tank, including in Cincinnati, with difference in laycan, importers have been unable to
suppliers making sales at this level. Illinois River quotes maintain a premium over CF’s May price quote.
are similar. Demand has been lukewarm for some time owing to
Trade Data: July 2023-January 2024 UAN imports were wet weather. At least in part, this has limited
1.15m. tonnes, down 324,000t year on year. Volumes opportunities for price increases throughout Q1.
from Russia were 661,000t, down from 1.06m. tonnes France/Germany: Prices are stable at €380-385pt cpt
year on year. Trinidad supplied 239,000t with another bulk for AN in France. Yara remains on turnaround at
217,000t arriving from Canada. In January, 169,000t Ambes which is due to conclude at the end of the
were imported of which 71,000t were from Russia and month. Meanwhile, in Germany, CAN prices are also
65,000t were from Trinidad. The remaining 33,000t stable with domestic producers indicating at €275-280pt
arrived from Canada. cif bulk. Imported CAN from eastern Europe and Russia
Of note, total exports for the July 2023 through January are available €5-10pt lower.
2024 period total 1.096m. tonnes, just shy of the total Demand in both countries is lukewarm and neither
import figure for the same period. This dynamic has rampant nor inactive. Domestic producers are
been highlighted by suppliers over recent months, maintaining prices at competitive levels in order to
alongside the well documented production issues in take/maintain market share.
January, as well as turnarounds at some facilities in Q3

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Bulgaria: Agropolychim announced new list prices to the situation in Brazil, Chinese and SE Asian prices
midweek for its AN at €320pt FCA, down €25pt from the have also come under pressure as traders have moved
previous price announcement on 13 February. to commit product in cfr markets without producer
backing.
Turkey: A round of negotiations are reported to have
taken place for exports of CAN. However, this is not USA: AdvanSix announced new list prices for its
understood to have led to any fresh business. With Granular Ammonium Sulfate at $375ps ton ex-river
European import demand generally weak, CAN prices warehouses effective from 12 March. The price marks a
have come under pressure with latest values put at $15ps ton increase from the last announcement in mid-
$260-265pt fob, down $5-10pt on last done. February and comes on the back of a wave of strong
demand in recent weeks.
Brazil: January-February AN imports were just 61,000t
nearly all of which were from Russia. The volumes are The producer advises that inland warehouse prices will
well below the 132,000t imported over the same period be at traditional premiums over the river terminals of up
in 2023 and only 15,000t above the 2022 figure when to around $20ps ton.
AN exports were seriously hampered from Russia. The
Within a day of the price announcement, a second half
low imports have been indicative of the weak demand
March to May delivery barge (seller’s option) was
from Brazil despite the relatively good value of AN
traded via brokers at $335ps ton fob Nola, equivalent to
versus other sources of nitrogen. Of note, nearly all of
$364pt cfr metric. A day later another barge traded via
the above mentioned volumes arrived in January with
brokers for March movement at $355ps ton fob Nola,
February imports at negligible levels.
equivalent to $386pt cfr metric. The March trade is
Baltic: Some producers continue to await further reported to be imported granular amsul.
guidance regarding the shipment of AN via Ust-Luga.
The sharp premium is due to availability of granular
Others are reported to be in negotiations with Ultramar,
amsul for March and April being very limited in Nola
the owner of significant storage and handling capacity
with several suppliers not active. Imported granular
at the port, regarding movement of AN. Meanwhile, at
amsul from Europe has featured but a significant part of
least one producer notes that exports via Ust-Luga are
the imports has gone straight into the distribution
possible but not for bulk product.
systems without entering the spot market.
The above would suggest that port authorities in Ust-
Imports – July 2023-Januay 2024 amsul imports were
Luga will permit the handling of AN but capacity is a
485,000t, up 112,000t year on year. Volumes from
major issue. Indeed, as noted previously, the pool of
Canada increased from 210,000t to 271,000t this
ports able to handle AN has shrunk from around 5-6 or
season. Meanwhile, with additional production capacity,
more to just one over the last two or so years.
volumes from Russia increased to 76,000t with another
Shipments from St. Petersburg are not expected to 69,000t arriving from Belgium. Germany supplied
resume for the foreseeable future owing to the port’s 45,000t as good US demand coupled with poor
proximity to the city and the risks associated with AN. European interest encouraged volumes west. Of note,
Germany has been a rare supplier of amsul to the USA
For now, AN demand remains weak in Latin America
in the past. Similarly, 21,000t arrived from Spain.
and Brazil. Prices remain opaque as a result with
producers able to focus on industrial buyers and the In January, 56,000t were imported of which 30,000t
domestic market. However, the latter is due to conclude were from Canada, 17,000t were from Belgium and
over the next month. This will lead to a major uptick in 9,000t were from Germany.
supply seeking export avenues and put significant
Brazil: Following several weeks of price stability
pressure on prices.
coupled with inactivity, compacted amsul prices have
come under pressure for March shipments. At least a
combined 25,000t of business took place between two
Sulphates different sets of buyers and sellers at $160pt and
$163pt cfr, respectively. April cargoes are offered
Amsul markets have been dynamic with some regions higher and in line with last week’s values in the $170s
registering major price increases while others have pt cfr.
made substantial price declines.
Imports – January-February amsul imports were
In the USA, there is a significant shortage in supply, 637,000t, up a modest 2% or 12,000t year on year and
and this has led to prices increasing by $25-30ps ton below the 870,000t imported over the same period in
week on week. 2022. As expected, China made up over 90% of the
Meanwhile, in Brazil, demand remains soft, and traders imports with 587,000t. Another 32,000t were imported
have cut prices in search of liquidity. Due in large part from the USA with this expected to be standard capro

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grade amsul and another 16,000t were imported from It is unclear whether Atlas booked the volumes in the
the Netherlands. above tender but the buyer issued a fresh tender this
week for another 8,000t of capro amsul for Sangi port
In February, 231,000t were imported, all of which from
for shipment by 20 April. The tender closes 18-19
China. This is the lowest import volume since May 2023
March.
when 186,000t were imported.
South Korea: Pungnong’s tender from late last week
Thailand: TCCC is reported to have bought 10,000t of
for 6,000t of capro amsul is reported to have received
capro amsul for April shipment at around $150pt cfr.
an offer in the low-$150s pt cfr. Freight from northern
The price marks a significant decline in regional values
China to South Korea is put in the mid-$10s pt with
for capro amsul and follows a week of sharp offers
netbacks basis the lowest offer in the mid-$130s pt fob
which are understood to be without producer backing.
China.
Freight from China to Thailand for the above mentioned
China: Amsul prices are coming under increasing
volume is put in the mid to high-$10s pt with netbacks
pressure and only a major turnaround in urea markets
before trader margin equating to the low to mid-$130s
coupled with an increase in Brazilian demand for
pt fob China. These levels are around $10pt below
compacted amsul is likely to reverse the situation.
prevailing price ideas in China.
For capro amsul, the lack of demand from compactors
Philippines: Atlas closed a tender late last week for
has been putting pressure on markets for some time.
capro amsul for shipment by 10 April. The buyer
SE Asian demand had been sustaining markets but this
required 6,000t of capro amsul to Davao and Bataan
appears to have waned and traders have been offering
ports as well as 8,000t for Sangi port. Freight rates from
in cfr markets without producer backing.
China differ sharply owing to the difference in volume
and number of discharge ports. Netbacks from the latest offers and business in the
region have been in the low to mid-$130s pt fob, below
The lowest offer for the 6,000t of capro amsul was
the $140-145pt fob price ideas from producers. In the
reported in the high-$150s pt cfr or slightly above while
short term, producers are able to defer negotiations with
the lowest offer for the larger lot requiring only one port
March product already committed.
discharge is reported at around $150pt cfr.
For similar reasons, steel grade amsul values are under
Netbacks to China for capro amsul offers are put in the
pressure with values this week at Rmb 720-760pt ex-
low to mid-$130s pt fob.
works. More so than capro amsul, steel grade
producers are reliant on compactors as an outlet.

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Meanwhile, compacted amsul producers have been
facing demand concerns of their own. Netbacks from
the latest March business in Brazil nets back to no
Employment Opportunity
better than the low-$140s pt fob. Meanwhile, offer levels Profercy Phosphates, NPKs and Potash
are reported at $150-155pt fob from compactors Profercy is seeking an experienced and enthusiastic
seeking liquidity while others have been offering higher. market reporter and analyst to join Profercy’s growing
In limited business this week, 5,000t of compacted team.
amsul was sold in the mid to high-$140s pt fob for
March shipment. This hybrid working role will focus on the necessary
journalism, price assessment and analysis to support
the output of our industry leading Phosphates & NPKs
Service, and supplemental potash publications.
Company News Profercy is looking for an ambitious individual, keen to
Germany: Helm has announced the departure of EVP develop their expertise and progress their career as
of Crop Nutrition, Olivier Saulnier, as part of a strategic part of a dedicated team of market experts.
management restructuring that will combine the
Full details on the role can be found here.
departments of fertilizer and crop protection under a
single new global umbrella called Helm Crop Solutions.
The Hamburg-headquartered group said the senior
executive will depart at the end of this month, with
agricultural industry veteran David Schumacher
heading the new entity from 1 April.

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 Profercy International Prices $pt
The price assessments published by Profercy contribute to the main fertilizer price index for the trade in fertilizer
swaps and derivatives. These price assessments are highlighted in bold below.

Urea prilled bulk 14 March 7 March Nitrates 14 March 7 March

Baltic – ice affected fob 298-310 300-310 AN Baltic fob bulk 220-230 220-230
Baltic – ice free fob 305-315 305-315 AN Black Sea fob bulk (north) 220-230 220-230
Arab Gulf fob 350-360 350-360 AN Black Sea fob bulk (south) 260-270 260-270
China fob 355-365 355-365 AN France € deld bulk 380-385 380-385
Brazil cfr 355-360 355-365 AN France € deld bulk (prilled) 370-375 370-375
EC Central America cfr 355-360 355-365 CAN France € deld bulk 285-290 285-295
WC Central America cfr 380-385 380-390 AN UK fot £ bagged 295-300 285-290
India cfr (both grades) 370-380 370-385 CAN Germany € cif bulk 270-280 270-280
SE Asia cfr 385-395 390-400 AN Brazil pt cfr 260-270 260-270
Urea granular bulk (spot) 14 March 7 March AN Central America cfr 260-290 260-290
25 Jul
Arab Gulf fob US cargoes 353-410 370-397 Am. Sulphate bulk 14 March 7 March
Arab Gulf fob Brazil cargoes 344-364 359-369 NW Europe (capro) full range fob 145-175 145-175
Arab Gulf fob spot price 360-370 372-373 NW Europe (capro) long-haul fob 145-155 145-155
NW Europe (capro) domestic fob 159-175 159-175
Arab Gulf full range 344-410 359-397
NW Europe gran fob full range 137-340 140-309
Iran fob spot 325-335 335-340
NW Europe gran long-haul fob 137-340 140-309
SE Asia fob 370-380 381-386 NW Europe gran domestic fob 217-235 217-235
China fob 360-370 375-380 Turkey cfr duty unpaid 180-190 180-190
SE Asia cfr 395-400 400-405 (caprolactam)
China fob – (caprolactam) 135-140 142-145
Black Sea fob 345-350 345-355
China fob – (MMA/Steel) 110-115 115-120
Baltic fob 310-330 320-340
China compacted/granular fob 145-155 152-160
Egypt fob 365-370 375-385 US Gulf barge granular pst fob 335-355 310-325
Algeria fob 365-370 370-380 Brazil caprolactam cfr sight 155-160 160-165
North Africa full range fob 365-370 370-385 Brazil granular cfr sight 160-172 172-175
Nigeria fob 350-355 350-360 SE Asia cfr 150-158 170-175

France (Atlantic) cfr 390-400 395-405 UAN 14 March 7 March

Romania/Bulgaria cfr 380-390 390-400 UAN France € fot 235-240 232-235
Caribbean fob 376-386 393-400 US ec cfr 295-305 295-305
US ps ton fob Nola 280-285 270-280
US Gulf export (metric fob) 380-390 390-400
US ps ton Nola/Cincinnati- 280-285 270-285
US Gulf pst fob prompt/7 days 408-411 395-400 Netback
US Gulf pst fob to 30 days 360-411 375-400 UAN FSU fob Black Sea 225-235 225-235
US Gulf metric cfr to 30 days 391-448 408-435 UAN fob Baltic 180-251 178-247
Brazil cfr 370-390 385-395 UAN fob Baltic: EU duty free 245-251 243-247
UAN fob Baltic: EU low AD 180-185 178-181
WC Central America cfr 395-405 405-415
duty
UAN fob Baltic: Long haul 225-240 225-240
UAN Egypt fob 220-230 220-230

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