VISVESVARAYA TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

Jnana Sangama, Belagavi-590014

A SEMINAR REPORT ON

“Climate Changes Prediction Using Simple Linear Regression”

SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR THE AWARD OF DEGREE

BACHELOR OF ENGINEERING IN ELECTRONICS AND

COMMUNICATION ENGINEERING
Submitted by

SOMSHEKHAR J. SAVANUR [2KL20EC119]

Under the guidance of

Prof. Vidyadhar R Dodamani

Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering

KLE DR.M.S. SHESHGIRI

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, UDYAMBAG, BELAGAVI -
590008, 2023-2024
 KLE Dr. M. S. Sheshgiri College of Engineering and Technology
Belagavi - 590008

Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the seminar on the topic “Climate Changes

Prediction Using Simple Linear Regression” was presented by Mr. Somshekhar J.
Savanur bearing USN: 2KL20EC119 in partial fulfilment for the award of Bachelor of
Engineering Degree in Electronics and Communication of Visvesvaraya
Technological University Belagavi during the academic year 2023-2024. The
seminar report has been approved as it satisfies academic requirements.

Guide Seminar Coordinator

Prof. Vidyadhar R. dodamani Prof. Ashwini Desai

HOD Principal
Dr. D. A. Torse Dr. S F Patil
 K.L.E .DR .M.S.SHESHGIRI COLLEGE OF

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY BELGAVI

DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRONICS AND COMMUNICATION ENGINEERING

NBA Accredited Department

Subject code: 18ECS84 Subject: Technical Seminar

Semester: 8 Staff In charge: Prof. Vidyadhar R

Dodamani

Mapping of Program Outcomes (POs) of Seminar:

Seminar PO1 PO2 PO3 PO4 PO5 PO6 PO7 PO8 PO9 P010 PO11 PO12
title
Climate Changes
Prediction Using
Simple Linear
Regression

Mapping of Program Specific Outcomes (PSOs) of Seminar:

Title PSO1 PSO2 PSO3

Climate Changes Prediction Using
Simple Linear Regression

Name: Somshekhar J. Savanur

USN: 2KL20EC119

Signature:
 K. L. E. DR. M. S. SHESHGIRI COLLEGE

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY BELGAVI

DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRONICS AND COMUNICATION ENGINEERING

NBA Accredited Department

Vision and Mission of the Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering are:

VISION

To be the center of excellence for education and research in Electronics and Communication
Engineering.

MISSION

1. To achieve academic excellence by encouraging active student-teacher relation.

2. To groom students with high moral and ethical standards.
3. To promote socially-relevant research and development activities.
4. To collaborate with institutions and industries for knowledge sharing, employability, and
entrepreneurship.
5. To encourage life-long learning in developing innovative products and services.

Program Educational Objectives (PEOs)

The educational objectives of the undergraduate program in Electronics and Communication
Engineering are:
1. To impact the knowledge and skills to meet the needs of current and emerging technologies in
Electronics and Communication Engineering.
2. To enable active pursuance of life-long study in Electronics and Communication Engineering in
order to develop innovative technologies for quality products and services.
3. To cultivate the ethical and socially relevant research and development activities.
4. To impact effective communication skills for success in interdisciplinary and multicultural
teams.
 K. L. E. DR. M. S. SHESHGIRI COLLEGE

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY BELGAVI

DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRONICS AND COMUNICATION ENGINEERING

NBA Accredited Department

Program Outcomes (POs)

1. Engineering Knowledge: Apply the knowledge of mathematics, science, an engineering
fundamental, and engineering specialization to the solution of complex engineering
problems.

2. Problem analysis: Identify, formulate, review research literature, and analyze complex
engineering problems reaching substantiated conclusions using first principles of mathematics,
natural science, and engineering science.

3. Design/development of solutions: Design solutions for complex engineering problems and

design system components or processes that meet the specified needs with appropriate
consideration for the public health and safety, and the cultural, societal, and environmental
consideration.
4. Conduct investigations of complex problems: Use research-based knowledge and
research methods including design of experiments, analysis and interpretation of data and
synthesis of the information to provide valid conclusions.

5. Modern tool usage: Create, select, and apply appropriate techniques, resources, and
modern engineering and IT tools including prediction and modelling to complex
engineering activities with an understanding of the limitations.

6. The engineer and society: Apply reasoning informed by the contextual knowledge to
assess societal, health, safety, legal and cultural issues and the consequent responsibilities
relevant tothe professional engineering practice.
7. Environment and sustainability: Understand the impact of the professional engineering
solutions in societal and environmental contexts, and demonstrate the knowledge of, and
need for sustainable development.

8. Ethics: Apply ethical principles and commit to professional ethics and responsibilities and
norms of the engineering practice.
 1. Individual and team work: Function effectively as an individual, and as a member or
leader in diverse teams, and in multidisciplinary settings.

2. Communication: Communicate effectively on complex engineering activities with the

engineering community and with society at large, such as, being able to comprehend and
write effective reports and design documentation, make effective presentations, and give and
receive clearinstructions.

3. Project management and finance: Demonstrate knowledge and understanding of the

engineering and management principles and apply these to one’s own work, as a member
and leaderin team, to manage projects and in multidisciplinary environments.
4. Lifelong learning: Recognize the need for, and have the preparation and ability to engage
in independent and life-long learning in the broadest context of technological change.

PROGRAM SPECIFIC OUTCOMES(PSO)

1. Demonstrate theoretical and practical knowledge of Electronics and Communication
Engineering.
2. Exhibit the technical and soft skills leading to employability.
3. Able to apply techniques for design and development of signal Processing VLSI and
Communication Systems
 Climate Changes Prediction using Simple linear regression

TABLE OF CONTENTS

SL.NO CONTENTS PAGE

NO.
1 Abstract 01
2 Introduction 02

3 Literature survey 03
4 SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION 05
5 RAINFALL PREDICTION USING SLR 06
6 RESULTS 08
7 CONCLUSION 09
8 REFERENCES 10

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 Climate Changes Prediction using Simple linear regression

1. Abstract
The rise in global temperatures, frequent natural disasters and rising sea levels,
reducing Polar Regions have made the problem of understanding and predicting
these global climate phenomena. Prediction is a matter of prime importance and
they are run as computer simulations to predict climate variables such as
temperature, precipitation, rainfall and etc. The agricultural country called India
in which 60% of the people depending upon the agriculture. Rain fall prediction
is the most important task for predicting early prediction of rainfall May helps to
peasant’s as well as for the people because most of the people in India can be
depends upon the agriculture.

The paper represents simple linear regression technique for the early prediction
of rainfall. It can helps to farmers for taking appropriate decisions on crop
yielding. As usually at the same time there may be a scope to analyze the
occurrence of floods or droughts. The simple linear regression analysis
methodology applied on the dataset collected over six years of Coonor in Nilagris
district from Tamil Nadu state. The experiment and our simple linear regression
methodology exploit the appropriate results for the rain fall.

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 Climate Changes Prediction using Simple linear regression

2. Introduction
Regression is the popular technique used for prediction in areas like climate
prediction and other areas. The cli mate can be defined as the average state of
atmosphere over a longer period similarly weather can be changes strongly day
by day .The natural disaster which was occurred during the year 2015 November–
December south India floods occurred and affected in the regions of Andhra
Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. In which it may results in the loss of property
approximately 100,000 cores of money, reducing natural resources and more than
500 people were killed. Similarly in the year 2014 a strong tropical cyclone storm
occurred in the regions of Vishakhapatnam and caused 60,000 cores of wealth
damaged as well as the death rate 125 people were occurred. On other side most
of the people in India can be survived upon the cultivation. There may be a rainfall
required for doing cultivation. We are implementing the simple regression model
for predicting the future rain fall .By these there may be a scope to taking deci
sion on crop yielding for the farmers.
If we use the concept of prediction there may be a scope to analyze future
occurrence of rainfall or drought, floods can be eas ily determined. Generally
droughts occurred due to lowprecipitation. By this we can mitigate losses and
including property and damage of the public as well as for the peas ants. Weather
prediction may be at regional or national levels. Generally, two approaches used
for predicting rain fall. One is Empirical approach and other is Dynam ical
approach. Empirical based on historical data to be collected and its relationship
to various atmospheric vari ables. Dynamical approach, defines physical models
based on systems of equation for prediction and can be imple mented by using
numerical rainfall forecasting method. The most widely used empirical
approaches which are used for climate prediction they are regression, artificial
neural network, fuzzy logic and group method of data handling. Support vector
machines are a set of supervised learning methods that create a decision maker
system which tries to predict new values.
A simple climate forecasting can be done by regression techniques. These
regression techniques are discussed further. In the recent years, the use of data
mining in the field of hydrology is increasing. The studies have been performed
using data mining process in many areas. Integrated evap oration model, using
DM process for three lakes in Turkey by Keskin. Now a day’s Artificial Intelligent
methods used in the estimation of rainfall.

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 Climate Changes Prediction using Simple linear regression

Literature survey

Paper Paper Title Author Summary

No.
1. Regression Techniques in Vidya S. Kadam, A regression technique in which the
Machine Learning Shweta Kanhere, independent variable has a linear
&Applications: A Review Shrikant relationship with the dependent
Mahindrakar variable. The straight line in the
diagram is the best fit line. The main
goal of the simple linear regression is
to consider the given data points and
plot the best fit line to fit the model in
the best way possible.
2. Linear Regression Manisha Keer, Dr. Simple Linear Regression Model is
Compressive In Machine Harsh Lohiya, Mr. suitable to data contains a linear
Learning Sudeesh Chouhan relationship between two variables, a
MLR Model is a linear relation
between two or more independent
variables a Polynomial Regression
Model would be used in case of
variables having a polynomial
relationship.
3. Linear Regression Kalva Sindhu Machine Learning is an advancement
Algorithm Learning Priya or later version of Artificial
Through Matlab Intelligence which is rapidly growing
field in the streams of automation,
designing, prediction, Image and
sound processing.
4. A Review on Linear Dastan Hussen The proper choice of regression
Regression Comprehensive Maulud1, Adnan model, the choosing and presence of
in Machine Learning Mohsin model variables are the key actions
Abdulazeez which should be established and
properly controlled in order to achieve
valid statistical results because the
unavailability or misapplication of an
appropriate regression modeling may
cause to inaccuracies results.

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 Climate Changes Prediction using Simple linear regression

6. The research of regression Shen Rong, Zhang This paper utilizes a linear regression
model in machine learning Bao-wen model to analyze the sales of iced
field products in response to temperature
variations. Using Python 3.6, data
collected from the past year is
cleansed and analyzed, leading to
informed production and sales
adjustments for the company, offering
significant commercial value and
theoretical insights for similar
businesses.
7. Linear Regression Soo-Jin Kim , This study proposed a linear
Machine Learning Seung-Jong Bae , regression learning model that has
Algorithms for Estimating and Min-Won Jang sufficient applicability compared to
Reference the empirical equations and can be
Evapotranspiration Using applied to all of South Korea.
Limited Climate Data

8. Linear Models in Machine Xiaojin Zhu The paper herein introduces the
Learning algorithm and model of the field of
machine learning.

9. CS 60050 Machine Andrew Ng A regression technique in which the

Learning independent variable has a linear
relationship with the dependent
variable.

10. Regression analysis using Andrew Lang linear regression specifically, it's a
Python supervised learning technique used for
predicting a continuous outcome based
on one or more input features. It's
particularly useful when there's a
linear relationship between the input
and output variables. the difference
between the predicted and actual
values.

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 Climate Changes Prediction using Simple linear regression

4. Simple Linear Regression

In the concept of statistical solving simple linear regres sion is an empirical
approach and it can solves the tasks by considering the historical data set of the
climate values or parameters. It can be only consists of single depen dent variable
and independent variable. In the simple linear regression model can be exists only
two variables. The representation of simple linear regression will be like
Y = α+ βX (1)
In which Y = dependent variable, X = independent variable,α , β, =regression
coefficients. In simple linear regression we will implement by cal culating Slope
and intercept because it will be like mathe matical equation of slope, intercept
line. The strength and direction of the association between the two variables can
be estimated by using the regression coefficient formula. Similarly there are
various correlation coefficient formulas can also be available in the mathematical
and statistical evolution processing. The mathematical for r is given as

- 2

The coefficient determination measures how well data can be represented in the
regression line. It can define strength and direction of relationship between the
dependent and independent variables.

4.1 Error Calculation

The error can be calculated after calculating the predicted values and the
difference can be calculated using the actual and predicted values. The formula
for calculating error is
- 3

Yi =Actual value, Yi = Predicted value, n = Total number of samples. RMSE

can be known as root mean square error or root mean square deviation. It can be
used measure of difference between sample and population values.

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 Climate Changes Prediction using Simple linear regression

5. Rainfall Prediction Using SLR

The architecture shown in Figure 1 will helps you regard ing how to accomplish
the task of rainfall prediction in a sequential manner. The Algorithm for Simple
Linear Regression

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 Climate Changes Prediction using Simple linear regression

Step 1: Function (CC, VP, A, B, X, Y, F1)

Step 2: Collect all the data in to excel.
Step 3: Read the values from the excel sheet f1 = new f ile (D:\\sample.xls).
Step 4: CC=[j]=(a. get contents ()).
Step 5: VP=[j]=(b. get contents ()).
Step 6: To calculate the correlation coefficient value.
Step 7: Y=A+Bx// here B is the correlation coefficient value.
Step 8: we have to find the A=Y–Bx. // here we can get Avalue.
Step 9: With “A” and “B” values we can form SLR equation.
Step 10: By using this equation with considered data set we can obtained the
predicted value which is closest to dependent variable.
Step 11: we have calculate the RMSE.
Step 12: : we can calculate accuracy by using confusion matrices.

5.1 Steps Regarding the Implementation of a Project

• Defining the data set variables in excel.

• Installing the NetBeans IDE along with JDK if JDK is not installed in
your system.
• Creation of project in NetBeans framework.
• Importing the jxl.jar package into the project library folder.
• Declaring the variables and source file path in the by creating a file.
• Implementing correlation coefficient calculation using programming.
• Define simple regression equation.
• Calculating slope value from using simple regression equation and
coefficient value. Final forming the predicted equation with slope and
coefficient values.
• Implementing the equation with the climate parameters and comparing
the actual values with the predicted values.
• Calculate the RMSE using past data set and obtained values.
• Install the WEKA software.
• Obtaining confusion matrix using WEKA.
• Calculating specificity and sensitivity.
• Finally implementing the accuracy formula using specificity and
sensitivity.

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 Climate Changes Prediction using Simple linear regression

6. Results
In this section we present the experimental results for the regression
methodologies simple regression and multi ple regression, we have introduced
briefly in the previous sections regarding regression concepts. The concept of
regression can be implemented by calculating coeffi cient, slope and the
considered climate data set either day, monthly or annual wise. As well as the per
formance of predicting the future values can be cal culated by using simple linear
regression algorithm. By using Net beans and weka framework we imple mented
our project. We can form the regression equation by calculating regression
coefficient will be like in this form Y =2035+cloud cover−0005 (4)
By substituting the considered data set in the regression equation, we can obtain
and carried out the experimental values as shown in Table I. The final graph
representing after implementing my pro posed system called simple linear
regression and existing system multiple linear regression. The graph we can
obtained like in this way.
Table I represents the predicted values and the values can be estimated with the
help of the computed equation. Here the table constructed with the help of simple
and multiple regression strategies.
In Figure 2 we compare the both the regression method ologies simple linear
regression and multiple linear regres sions by considering the same data set. Here
we consider the same climate variables for predicting the future values. The
existing methodology called multiple linear regres sions can require and uses
more climate parameters and

Climate Changes Prediction Using Simple Linear Regression Sreehari and

Ghantasala it is difficult to implement this regression. In the other way simple
linear regression can be easy to implement and analyze.
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 Climate Changes Prediction using Simple linear regression

7. Conclusion
The natural incidents may not possible to stop and cannot estimate in a efficient
and accurate manner. In general by using the concept of future estimation concept
or events or values there may be a scope to minimize lot of problems. In this project
we have implemented the simple regression methodology and it can predict the
values in a appropriate manner and better than multiple linear regression. By con
sidering rainfall value as a dependent variable with other values as independent we
can successfully implemented the simple linear regression method. This is the
concept of prediction but not in a accurate manner because we know that climate
factors changes due to different reasons and impacts on it.

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 Climate Changes Prediction using Simple linear regression

10.Reference
• Divya Chauahan and Jawhar Thakur, 2015. Data mining techniques for
weather prediction. International Journal on Recent and Innova tion Trends
in Computing and Communication.
• Ozlemterzi Hindwani Monthly Rainfall Estimation by Data-Mining
Process by Publishing Corporation 2012.
• Nikhil Sethi and KanwalGarg, 2014. Exploiting data mining tech nique for
rainfall prediction. International Journal of Comuputer Science and
Information Technologies.
• Imran Ahmed, SruthiMenon, and Nikitha, 2014. Rainfall Prediction Using
Multiple Regression Techniques.
• Pinky SaikiaDutta and Hitesh Tahbilder, 2013. Prediction of Rainfall by
Datamining Technique in Assam.
• Ismail, Z., et al., 2009. Forecasting gold pieces using multiple linear
regression method. American Journal of Applied Sciences.
• Paras, et al., 2012. A simple weather forecasting model using math ematical
regression. Indian Research Journal of Extension Education,.
• http://indiawaterportal.org/met_data/.
• Damle, C. and Yalcin, A., 2007. Journal of Hydrology Flood Prediction
Using Time Series Data Mining, 333(2–4), pp.305–316.
• Roz, E.P., 2011. Water quality modeling and rainfall estimation: A data
driven approach [M.S.thesis], University of Iowa, Iowa city, Iowa, USA.
• Ball, J.E. and Sharma, A., 2001. An Application of Artificial Neural
Networks for Rainfall Forecasting.

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