HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status: Bleach Watch Egypt

SCIENTIFIC NEWS REPORT

Coral Bleaching Event of 2023:
Exploring distribution, sensitivity, and recovery potential
on the Egyptian coast of the Red Sea

Prof. Mahmoud H. Hanafy

Dr. Muhammad Y.A. Dosoky
 Bleach Watch Egypt
HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

Table of Contents
1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................1
1.1. Bleach Watch Egypt ............................................................................................................................................2
2. Survey Objective .................................................................................................................................................2
3. Study Area and Method Approach .....................................................................................................................2
3.1. Coral Bleaching Field Survey...............................................................................................................................3
3.2. Estimation of the Rate of Recovery ....................................................................................................................4
4. Summary of the Key Survey Outcomes (2023) ...................................................................................................5
4.1. Geographical Range ............................................................................................................................................5
4.2. Species Sensitivity to Heat Stress .......................................................................................................................5
4.3. Comparison Between Inshore and Offshore Reefs ............................................................................................7
4.4. Comparison Between Depths .............................................................................................................................7
5. Recovery in Bleached Colonies ...........................................................................................................................8
5.1. Overall Recovery Rates .......................................................................................................................................8
5.2. Correlation Between Sensitivity and Recovery ..................................................................................................9
6. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................... 11
7. Recommendations........................................................................................................................................... 12
Acknowledgment..................................................................................................................................................... 14

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

1. Introduction
Coral reefs, facing the compounded challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution,
serve as the frontline defenders of our planet. Paradoxically, these ecosystems, renowned for
their biodiversity and ecological value, are also the most vulnerable. With half of the world's coral
reefs already lost, projections indicate a potential further decline of 70-90% even if global
warming is limited to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. This alarming scenario
underscores the critical need for optimism in the realm of ocean conservation. The Hurghada
Environmental Protection and Conservation Association (HEPCA) is committed to the preservation
of Egypt's coral reefs, particularly the Great Fringing Reef, due to the following pivotal reasons:

► Symbol of Hope: The Great Fringing Reef of the Egyptian Red Sea stands as a symbol of
hope for the entire ecosystem and serves as a beacon of Nature's Tipping Point. Its
significance is unparalleled, and its preservation hinges on achieving the targets outlined
in the Paris Climate Agreement, coupled with robust local marine protection measures.
Success in safeguarding these reefs holds the key to preventing the irreversible loss of
entire ecosystems upon which countless species depend.

► Unique Endemism: Recent reviews highlight the Red Sea's remarkable endemism,
featuring 346 scleractinian coral species, 19 of which are endemic. High rates of
endemism extend to polychaetes, echinoderms, ascidians, crustaceans, mollusks, and
shore fish. Scientific evidence underscores the Great Fringing Reef's high resilience and
tolerance to climate change, positioning it as a potential global refuge for coral reefs and
offering hope for future generations and recovery. In essence, the conservation of these
reefs carries the promise of averting not only an imminent biodiversity crisis in the ocean
but a broader ecological catastrophe for the entire planet.

► Socioeconomic Significance: Coastal cities and communities along the Great Fringing Reef
are intricately linked to the ocean's resources. With tourism emerging as the primary
source of income, the reef plays a pivotal role in supporting biodiversity-based tourism.

“The Great Fringing Reef of the Egyptian Red Sea stands as

a symbol of hope for the entire ecosystem and serves as a
beacon of Nature's Tipping Point.”

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

1.1. Bleach Watch Egypt

HEPCA, in collaboration with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN),
introduced Bleach Watch Egypt in 2010 as part of the Climate Change Project. Drawing inspiration
from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority's coral reef monitoring program, this
community-based initiative acts as an early warning system for potential coral bleaching events.
Trained volunteers report on local reef health, contributing valuable information to track
bleaching events and environmental damage. Bleach Watch Egypt is operational along the
Egyptian Red Sea coast, reflecting HEPCA's singular dedication to addressing climate change
impacts on coral reefs.

2. Survey Objective
The survey's overarching objective is to comprehensively assess coral bleaching and estimate
recovery rates in bleached coral colonies. Specific objectives encompass a range of facets,
including:
► Conducting an extensive inventory of coral bleaching compared to the two bleaching
events in 2012 and 2020.

► Quantifying the extent of coral bleaching across coral community.

► Evaluating the geographical and depth distribution of coral bleaching patterns along the
Egyptian Red Sea coast.

► Determining the sensitivity, tolerance, and resilience of coral species to heat stress
induced by climate change.

► Assessing the rate of recovery in tagged bleached colonies, considering various species
and genera.

► Comparing survey findings with events documented in 2012 and 2020.

3. Study Area and Method Approach

In June, HEPCA received a bleaching warning from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA). The Bleach Watch Egypt network, fueled by member notifications on
coral bleaching, was activated, with bleach watch forms distributed to all diving centers along the
southern coast of the Egyptian Red Sea. A preliminary survey, guided by notifications received
from Bleach Watch members, covered the Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba, as well as the Egyptian coast
of the Red Sea.

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

3.1. Coral Bleaching Field Survey

Following multiple notifications in August 2023 (Fig. 1A), a comprehensive survey was initiated,
encompassing the entire coasts of the Egyptian Red Sea, Gulf of Suez, and Gulf of Aqaba. The
primary objective of this survey was to identify instances of coral bleaching, with detailed
assessments conducted in affected areas (Fig. 1B).

Figure 1. A daily 5 km NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) SST. (A) regional virtual station time series
graphs issued by NOAA for the Egyptian coastal zone of the Red Sea. (B) Distribution of 2023
summer heat stress.

Various parameters were examined during the survey, including spatial distribution, depths
(specifically 2-5m on the reef edge and 8-10m on the reef slope), offshore versus inshore reefs,
coral species and genera, and sheltering conditions. The degree of bleaching severity was
measured against different variables. Specifically, the severity of bleaching for each colony was
assessed by checking five points on each, determining the bleaching level at each point, and then
calculating the average rank per colony. Overall means were computed based on the aggregate
rank per species/genus along the transects.

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

Consequently, the following severity ranks were established:

► Unbleached: No signs of bleaching, and colony colors are normal.

► Slightly Bleached: 1-25% of the colony is bleached, with colors ranging from pale to
completely white.

► Mild Bleached: 26-50% of the total colony area is impacted by bleaching.

► Moderate Bleached: 51-75% of the total colony area is affected by bleaching.

► Severely Bleached: 76-99% of the colony area is bleached.

► Completely Bleached: 100% of the colony is bleached.

► Partially Dead: Part of the colony is dead with no alive polyps.

► Totally Dead: The entire colony is dead with no alive polyps.

A detailed map of the detailed surveyed areas along the Egyptian Red Sea coast is provided in Fig.
1B.

3.2. Estimation of the Rate of Recovery

During the survey, over 280 tagged bleached colonies representing the most affected species or
genera were identified to estimate the rate of recovery (Fig. 2). These colonies were strategically
selected to encompass the diverse range of species and genera and were influenced by variables
such as geographical range, depths, offshore vs. inshore locations, and sheltering conditions.
Approximately 45 days post-bleaching event, the selected colonies were resurveyed, allowing for
the estimation of recovery rates, survival rates, and mortality rates across the different variables.

Figure 2. Tagging coral

colonies (n= 288) of
different genera during the
field survey.

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

4. Summary of the Key Survey Outcomes (2023)

The occurrence and level of bleaching intensity are influence highly significant with both
geographical range and the sensitivity and resilience of the coral species/genera. The recovery in
bleached colonies varied significantly based on coral species/genera. Following are the main
outcomes of the survey of 2023:

4.1. Geographical Range

The survey meticulously examined the intricate relationship between coral bleaching dynamics
and its intensity concerning the geographical range, with a particular focus on the Egyptian Red
Sea. The findings underscore a highly significant correlation, reminiscent of patterns observed in
the 2012 and 2020 bleaching events. Notably, the southern stretch of the Red Sea consistently
exhibited heightened coral bleaching (Fig. 3), while the northern regions—encompassing the Gulf
of Suez, Gulf of Aqaba, and areas north of Quasier City—displayed only minimal indications of
complete bleaching. A discernible gradient in bleaching occurrence emerged from the south of
Quasier City, reaching its zenith south of Marsa Alam. The Wadi El-Gimal and Lahmi Bay regions
stood out with the highest incidence of bleaching, accentuating the spatial heterogeneity in
bleaching severity.

The severity of bleaching was graphically depicted (refer to Fig. 3) to illustrate a clear trend: the
further south in the Egyptian Red Sea, the more pronounced the bleaching became. North of
Quasier City, the bleaching spectrum ranged from unbleached to mild, contrasting with the
escalated severity witnessed southward. The Wadi El-Gimal and Lahmi Bay areas, situated south
of Marsa Alam, recorded the highest percentage of mildly to completely bleached coral colonies
in comparison to the northern sector of the Red Sea. It is noteworthy that the heightened
occurrence of severe bleaching correlated with the presence of the most sensitive coral
species/genera, particularly Porites, Millepora, and Montipora, which were prevalent in the Wadi
El-Gimal and Lahmi Bay sites.

4.2. Species Sensitivity to Heat Stress

The survey scrutinized the diverse responses of coral species/genera to heat stress, revealing
highly significant variations in sensitivity. Identified as the most sensitive were Millepora,
Montipora, Porites, Acropora, Pocillipora, and Stylophora. Among these, a non-scleractinian coral
Millepora followed by Stylophora, Montipora, and Porites emerged as the most affected genera,
exhibiting the highest levels of severity in bleaching. The survey's findings, visually represented in
figure 4, underscore the pronounced vulnerability of these species to heat stress, particularly in
the aforementioned Wadi El Gimal and Lahmi Bay regions.

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

Figure 3. The geographical distribution and intensity pattern of coral bleaching observed in
2023. Southern reefs witnessed significantly higher bleaching severity compared to the north.
This highlights priority areas for conservation while also indicating the potential of less-affected
northern reefs as a natural refuge for corals.

Figure 4. Diverse responses to heat stress across coral genera with Millepora, Stylophora,
Montipora, and Porites exhibiting the most pronounced response to severe bleaching.

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

4.3. Comparison Between Inshore and Offshore Reefs

Detailed exploration into the bleaching potentials of inshore and offshore reefs revealed no
discernible differences, particularly in coral colonies exhibiting moderate, severe, and complete
bleaching (Fig. 5). The data unveiled a consistent pattern, with approximately 50-60% of coral
colonies displaying signs of bleaching across all surveyed reefs, regardless of their proximity to the
shoreline.

4.4. Comparison Between Depths

The survey delved into the impact of depth on bleaching potential, examining two specific depths:
2-5m (reef edge) and 8-10m (reef slope). The findings illuminated a higher prevalence of affected
coral colonies on the reef slope compared to the reef edge. Furthermore, the severity of impact
was more pronounced in the deeper studied depth (reef slope) than in the shallower depth (reef
edge). Figure 6 visually illustrates this depth-dependent variation, emphasizing the importance of
accounting for depth when assessing the repercussions of bleaching on coral colonies in the
surveyed areas.

Figure 5. Bleaching patterns across

inshore and offshore reefs. No
significant differences in bleaching
severity were observed between the
two reef systems. This consistency
suggests that proximity to the shoreline
may not be a major factor influencing
coral bleaching susceptibility.

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

Figure 6. Depth-dependent variations in

coral bleaching. Bleaching pattern
reveals a higher proportion of affected
coral colonies on the deeper reef slope
(8-10m) compared to the shallower reef
edge (2-5m).

5. Recovery in Bleached Colonies

Results of the recovery study on bleached tagged colonies revealed compelling insights,
summarized as follows:

5.1. Overall Recovery Rates

A comprehensive analysis of the nearly 288 bleached tagged colonies unveiled a noteworthy
trend. Approximately 72.2% of these colonies exhibited signs of recovery, whether it be total
(50.3%) or partial (21.9%) recuperation from the bleaching event. In stark contrast, only 27.8% of
the total tagged colonies were deemed completely deceased after an observation period of nearly
45 days post-bleaching (refer to Fig. 7). These findings suggest a promising recovery potential for
a majority of the affected colonies.

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

Figure 7. Post-bleaching recovery in tagged coral colonies in seven southern reefs. Notably,
72.2% of these colonies displayed signs of recovery after 45 days, represented by different color
intensities. Of these, 50.3% exhibited complete recovery, highlighting their resilience.
Additionally, 21.9% showed partial recovery, demonstrating their ability to partially regain
health.

5.2. Correlation Between Sensitivity and Recovery

A compelling correlation emerged between the sensitivity of coral species/genera to heat stress
and their potential for recovery. Notably, Porites, a genus known for its resilience, demonstrated
an impressive recovery rate. Approximately 80% of the tagged bleached Porites colonies fully
recovered, with an additional 8-9% experiencing partial recovery. Intriguingly, even among the
partially recovered colonies, it was observed that large colonies, spanning centuries in age,
achieved complete recovery through the horizontal growth of polyps. This underscores the high
recovery potential of large Porites colonies, attributed to their resilience and expected horizontal
growth of polyps.

In contrast, coral genera such as Millepora, Montipora, and Pocillopora, which exhibited high
sensitivity to heat stress (indicated by severe bleaching, i.e moderately, severely and completely

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

bleached colonies), surpassed expectations with recovery rates exceeding 70% for both partial
and complete recuperation (see Fig. 8).

Figure 8. Recovery potential linked to heat stress sensitivity. Porites, known for resilience,
showed high recovery. Conversely, highly sensitive genera (Millepora, Montipora, and
Pocillopora) exceeded expectations with over 70% of different levels of recovery.

Acropora and Stylophora showcased a distinct pattern in sensitivity and resilience. Despite lower
rates of severe bleaching in Acropora compared to other species/genera, this genus exhibited

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lower recovery rates (see Fig. 8). In essence, Acropora demonstrated lower sensitivity to heat
stress during bleaching events but was characterized by a diminished resilience or recovery rate,
evident in the higher percentage of tagged bleached colonies recorded for this genus.

This nuanced analysis not only underscores the variability in recovery dynamics across coral
species and genera but also sheds light on the interplay between sensitivity to stress and
subsequent resilience in the face of bleaching events.

6. Conclusion
The results obtained from the comprehensive analysis of bleaching and recovery data unveil four
pivotal findings that can be articulated in greater detail:

► Consistent Bleaching Trend: A persistent pattern akin to the 2012 and 2020 bleaching
events emerges along the Egyptian coast of the Red Sea. Notably, the northern section,
encompassing the Gulf of Suez, the Gulf of Aqaba, and the Northern part of the Egyptian
Red Sea, remains devoid of severe bleaching. Conversely, the potential for bleaching
intensifies southward from Qusier City and peaks south of the Marsa Alam City area
(Appendix 1).

► Coral Species Sensitivity: The nuanced sensitivity of coral species/genera to heat stress
manifests in pronounced variations. Porites, Montipora, Stylophora, and Millepora exhibit
a higher potential for severe bleaching, contrasting with the lower occurrences observed
in Pocillopora and Acropora.

► Resilience of Sensitive Species: Noteworthy is the resilience demonstrated by the most

sensitive species/genera, showcasing the highest recovery and adaptability to heat stress.

► Prolonged Heat Wave Impact: The protracted duration of the 2023 heat wave exerts a
more substantial influence on bleaching potential compared to the events of 2012 and
2020. This signals a potential trajectory of increased frequency, duration, and intensity of
heat waves in the coming years.

The intriguing question of "why Red Sea corals exhibit a higher tolerance to heat stress" remains
a subject of rigorous investigation. While some scientists posit evolutionary or genetic influences,
this explanation encounters challenges due to observed disparities in bleaching potential along
latitudinal lines. Our hypothesis, formulated since 2008 and bolstered by consistent bleaching
trends, posits that the diminished bleaching occurrence along the northern coast of the Egyptian
Red Sea is primarily attributable to the region's distinctive hydrodynamic pattern.

As illustrated in Appendix 2, the main current in the Red Sea shifts from south to north at its
northern extremity, creating a turbulence/mixing zone in the far north. This alteration directs the
main current north-south along the western coast of the Egyptian Red Sea until the Qusier area,
acting as a significant mitigating factor against temperature rise. The unique circulation pattern in

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the northern part forms a temperature-mitigated area, averting temperatures from reaching the
threshold for severe bleaching. Moreover, wind patterns in the northern Red Sea, predominantly
between the north and north-east, further support this mitigation by propelling surface water
southward and facilitating the replacement of warmer surface water with cooler deep water in
coral reef areas (Appendix 2).

Both of these factors contribute to the lower temperature levels characterizing the northern
region of the Red Sea, as depicted in Appendix. 3.

The influence of evolutionary factors on the sensitivity and resilience of Egyptian Red Sea corals
should not be discounted. The region experiences substantial temperature fluctuations between
winter and summer, ranging from 13-14°C in winter to 30°C or slightly more in summer. This
exposure to temperature variations likely contributes to the heightened tolerance capacity of
Egyptian corals. Further in-depth investigations are imperative to validate and deepen our
understanding of this perspective.

7. Recommendations
In order to bolster the resilience of coral reefs, we propose a multifaceted conservation strategy
that includes limiting fishing activities, redirecting human interactions with coral reef ecosystems
towards sustainable practices, promoting coral restoration through sexual reproduction, and
progressing towards the designation of the entire Great Fringing Reef of Egypt as a National Park.

1. Sustainable Fisheries Management:

► Implement measures to reduce fishing pressure on coral reef ecosystems, including the
establishment of no-take zones and regulated fishing seasons.

► Introduce community-based fisheries management initiatives that involve local

stakeholders in sustainable resource utilization.

2. Transitioning to Sustainable Practices:

► Reorient all human activities associated with coral reefs toward sustainable practices,
emphasizing eco-friendly tourism, responsible diving, and the adoption of low-impact
recreational activities, based on implementing carrying capacity plans.

► Collaborate with local communities to raise awareness about sustainable practices and
their role in preserving the health of coral reefs.

3. Coral Restoration through Sexual Reproduction:

► Prioritize coral restoration efforts, focusing on the degraded reefs off Hurghada, by
implementing innovative approaches such as sexual reproduction.

► Establish coral nurseries to facilitate the growth of sexually reproduced corals, promoting
genetic diversity and resilience in the restored populations.

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4. Progressing towards National Park Status:

► Advocate for the declaration of the entire Great Fringing Reef as a National Park to ensure
comprehensive protection and conservation.

► Collaborate with relevant authorities, communities, and environmental organizations to

formulate and implement the necessary legal frameworks for the National Park
designation.

5. Strengthening Collaborative Conservation Initiatives:

► Encourage partnerships between government agencies, non-governmental organizations,
and local communities to pool resources and expertise for effective coral reef
conservation.

► Establish monitoring and enforcement mechanisms to safeguard against illegal activities

and ensure the sustained protection of the coral reef ecosystems.

6. Research and Monitoring:

► Implement regular monitoring programs to assess the health and resilience of the Great
Fringing Reef and adjust conservation strategies based on the latest scientific findings.

► Support continuous research and monitoring efforts to inform adaptive conservation

measures and ensure the long-term health of the coral reef ecosystem.

► Promote citizen science initiatives to involve the public in data collection and monitoring
efforts.

► Establish platforms for public participation in conservation decision-making processes.

► These recommendations aim to create a comprehensive and adaptive strategy to

safeguard the Great Fringing Reef of Egypt, recognizing its significance as a potential coral
refuge in the face of climate change and coral bleaching.

7. Education and Community Engagement:

► Conduct educational programs targeting local communities, schools, and tourists to foster
a deeper understanding of the importance of coral reefs and the role each individual can
play in conservation.

► Facilitate community engagement in decision-making processes related to coral reef

conservation, ensuring inclusivity and shared responsibility.

This comprehensive approach seeks to safeguard the Great Fringing Reef of Egypt by addressing
various aspects of conservation, from sustainable resource management to proactive restoration
efforts, all while progressing towards the establishment of a National Park for enduring
protection.

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Acknowledgment
The authors extend their sincere gratitude to the Board Members of HEPCA for their unwavering
commitment to advancing scientific research on the marine resources of the Red Sea through
their Strategic Agenda. HEPCA's invaluable support encompassed funding for all expeditions and
efficient management of logistics during field activities and data collection. As the sole sponsor of
the research, HEPCA plays a pivotal role in monitoring the impact of climate change on the
precious and distinctive living resources of the Red Sea.

Furthermore, the authors would like to express their deep appreciation to various individuals who
supported the field survey. Without their assistance, this investigation would not have been
conducted successfully. Special thanks to Mai Abd El-Rahman (Suez Canal University), Mr. Ayman
Nasr (Red Sea Protectorate, Hamata), Hadeer Ismail (post-graduate student), Dr. Ahmed Gallab
(Red Sea Protectorate, Hurghada), Dr. Asmaa Hassan (General Authority for Remote Sensing).
Their contributions were instrumental in ensuring the thorough and effective execution of the
study.

Next step: The authors commit to conducting a comprehensive analysis of the

complete dataset, with the aim of generating a scientific publication that assesses the
bleaching potential and resilience/recovery of the coral community in the Egyptian
reefs of the Red Sea.

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

Appendix 1. Spatial distribution of coral bleaching severity along the Egyptian Red Sea coast during the 2012 and 2020 heat stress events.

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HEPCA's Periodic Report on Coral Reefs Status

Appendix 2. Mitigation Factors in the Northern Red Sea. (Top) Circulation dynamics (Adapted from NASA Earth
Observatory story Chlorophyll and Currents in the Red Sea). (Bottom) Prevailing wind patterns (source:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0064909).

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Appendix 3. Heat stress distributions along the Red Sea during the bleaching events of 2012, 2020, and 2023.

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The heatwave and subsequent coral bleaching event of

Summer 2023 are considered unprecedented in the
recent history of the Egyptian Red Sea coast, especially
in the southern region. Therefore, this report serves as
a news update within the periodic reports issued by
HEPCA on the status of the Red Sea natural resources
on the Egyptian side.

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