Best Technical Indicators For Rookie Traders
Best Technical Indicators For Rookie Traders
Best Technical Indicators For Rookie Traders
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Starting out in the trading game? Looking for the best technical indicators to
follow the action is important. It affects how you’ll interpret trends—both on
positions and in the broad averages—as well as the type of opportunities that
pop up in your nightly research. Choose wisely and you’ve built a solid
foundation for success in speculation. Choose poorly and predators will be
lining up, ready to pick your pocket at every turn.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
In general, technical indicators fit into five categories: trend, mean
reversion, relative strength, volume, and momentum.
Leading indicators attempt to predict where the price is headed while
lagging indicators offer a historical report of background conditions
that resulted in the current price being where it is.
Popular technical indicators include simple moving averages (SMAs),
exponential moving averages (EMAs), bollinger bands, stochastics, and
on-balance volume (OBV).
SELECT A STOCK
CALCULATE
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technical indicators fit into five categories of research. Each category can be
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further subdivided into leading or lagging. Leading indicators attempt to
predict where the price is headed while lagging indicators offer a historical
report of background conditions that resulted in the current price being where
it is.
So, how can a beginner choose the right setting at the start and avoid months
of ineffective signal production? The best approach in most cases is to
begin with the most popular numbers—while adjusting one indicator at a time
—and seeing if the output helps or hurts your performance. Using this method,
you’ll quickly grasp the specific needs of your level.
Now that you understand the five ways that indicators dissect market action,
let’s identify the best ones in each category for novice traders.
Trend Indicators
50-Day EMA and 200-Day EMA
We’ll start with two indicators that are embedded within the same panel as the
daily, weekly, or intraday price bars. Moving averages look back at price action
over specific time periods, subdividing the total to create a running average
that’s updated with each new bar. The 50- and 200-day exponential
moving averages (EMAs) are more responsive versions of their better-known
cousins, simple moving averages (SMAs). In a nutshell, the 50-day EMA is used
to measure the average intermediate price of a security, while the 200-day EMA
measures the average long term price.
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U.S. Oil Fund (USO)’s 50- and 200-day EMAs rose steadily into the summer of
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2014, while the instrument pushed up to a 9-month high. The 50-day EMA
turned lower in August, with the 200-day EMA following suit one month later.
The shorter-term average then crossed over the longer-term average (indicated
by the red circle), signifying a bearish change in trend that preceded a historic
breakdown. [ 1 ]
SPDR S&P Trust (SPY) oscillates through a series of buy-and-sell cycles over a 5-
month period. [ 3 ] Look for signals where:
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This two-tiered confirmation is necessary because stochastics can oscillate near
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extreme levels for long periods in strongly trending markets. And, while 14,7,3 is
a perfect setting for novice traders, consider experimenting to find the setting
that best fits the instrument you are analyzing. For example, experienced
traders switch to faster 5,3,3 inputs.
Momentum Indicators
MACD
Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator, set at 12, 26, 9, gives
novice traders a powerful tool to examine rapid price change. This classic
momentum tool measures how fast a particular market is moving while it
attempts to pinpoint natural turning points. Buy or sell signals go off when the
histogram reaches a peak and reverses course to pierce through the zero line.
The height or depth of the histogram, as well as the speed of change, all interact
to generate a variety of useful market data.
SPY shows four notable MACD signals over a 5-month period. The first signal
flags waning momentum, while the second captures a directional thrust that
unfolds right after the signal goes off. The third signal looks like a false reading
but accurately predicts the end of the February–March buying impulse. The
fourth triggers a whipsaw that’s evident when the histogram fails to penetrate
the zero line.
Volume Indicators
On-Balance-Volume (OBV)
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Keep volume histograms under your price bars to examine current levels of
interest in a particular security or market. The slope of participation over time
reveals new trends—often before price patterns complete breakouts or
breakdowns. You can also place a 50-day average of volume across the
indicator to see how the current session compares with historic activity.
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An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of moving average that places a greater
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