Daily Digest From BDO Securities 2
Daily Digest From BDO Securities 2
Daily Digest From BDO Securities 2
Disclaimer
This presentation is being issued solely for information purposes. This presentation does not contain all of the information required by a party to evaluate the
prospects of participating or utilizing the proposed financial products. Potential participants must conduct their own investigations and analysis and rely on the
results of such investigation in coming up with a decision to participate in any of the proposed financial products. The data and information presented and included
in this presentation do not purport to be complete and exhaustive. They have not been independently verified as to their veracity and timeliness. BDO Nomura
Securities, Inc., including their respective allied entities, as well as their respective agents, advisers, directors, officers, employees or representatives make no
warranty or representation, express or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the presentation. This disclaimer extends to any statements,
opinions or conclusions contained in, or any omissions from, the presentation or in respect or in respect of written or oral communications transmitted or otherwise
made available to the prospective participants, and no representation or warranty is made in respect of any such statements, opinions or conclusions. The contents
of this presentation are strictly private and confidential. Accordingly, except with the prior written consent of BDO Nomura Securities, Inc., the information contained
in the presentation must be held in complete confidence.
2
What is Technical Analysis (TA)?
3
History & Development
Technical analysis has been used for centuries. In the 17th C., accounts of charting were seen during
the "Tulip Mania" trend, and while Munehisa Homma was gathering his candlestick charts to amass a
fortune while trading rice in Japan in the 18th C. However, it was Dow theory (based on the combined
works of Charles Dow in the late 19th C.) that laid the foundations for modern technical analysis.
Munehisa Homma
(1724 - 1803) was a rice merchant from Sakata, Japan who traded in the Dojima
Rice market in Osaka during the Tokugawa Shogunate. He is sometimes
considered to be the father of the candlestick chart.
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Difference between FA and TA
Fundamental Technical
Data Financial Statements Charts
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3 Principles of TA
6
Where can TA be used?
Technical analysis can be used on any security with historical trading data. This includes stocks,
futures, commodities, bonds, currencies, and other securities.
Usability Weakness
1. Clarify a current stock position 1. Overlook important economic indicators
2. Anticipate turning trend point 2. Difficulty in handling many analysis
3. Know trade timing methods and too much information
4. Forecasts potential future price action 3. Unable to count on expected value
based on historical price behavior 4. Subjective analysis and personal biases
(especially the start of a new trend)
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Overview of Technical Indicators
Non-Time Series
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Types of Charts
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Line Chart
A line chart is the most basic chart type. It connects a series of data points with a line and is used to
monitor closing prices which are most important in stock data, compared to the high and low for the day.
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Bar Chart
A bar chart shows multiple price bars over time. Each bar shows how the price moved over a specified
period of time and shows a price bar for each day. Each bar typically shows the open, high, low, and
close (OHLC) prices for that period.
High High
Close Open
Open Close
Low Low
(Bullish) (Bearish)
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Candlestick Chart
A candlestick chart is similar to bar charts in that they show the opening, closing, high, and low
prices for each period. However, a key difference is that candlestick charts have a wide “body” between
the opening and closing prices.
Candlesticks are not only a type of chart but are also used for pattern recognition.
A combination of candlesticks can reveal market sentiment, turning points in the market, and also
continuation patterns. Please continue for further information.
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Chart Timeframes
The most popular timeframes are daily charts, with the closing price being the most important
information. Many retail traders use daily charts to look for 2–3 month trends. Meanwhile, longer-term
investors such as asset managers and pension funds prefer weekly charts to find longer-term trends
and reduce the amount of short-term volatility.
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Contents
15
Candlestick Basics
A candlestick chart is a chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices of a stock
or currency for a specific period.
High Price
High (H)
Closing
Price Close(C)
Opening
Price Open(O)
Source: Nomura 16
Candlestick Basics
Bullish Bearish
(White Candlestick) (Black Candlestick)
Real
Body
Lower
Shadow
Low Price Low Price
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Candlestick Basics
Closing Opening
Price Price
C O
O C
Opening Closing
Price Price
No real body
Little to no upper shadow
C
Small bullish body
Long upper shadow O
Long shadow
Little to no lower shadow
3. Inverted
4. Bullish Spinning Top 19
Hammer
16 Candlestick Patterns (Single candle- Bearish)
C O
Day 1 : Day 2 : Day 1 :
O Day 2 :
Smaller Bigger Bigger C Smaller
bearish bullish
body C body
bearish
O
bullish
body body
O C
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11. Piercing Line 12. Tweezer Bottom
16 Candlestick Patterns (Two candles- Bearish)
O C
Day 1 : Day 2 :
Smaller C Day 1 : Day 2 :
Bigger Bigger O Smaller
bullish bearish bullish bearish
body O body C
body body
C O
Gap Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap Gap
Gap
Gap
Gap
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15 Breakout Patterns (Reversal)
Neck Bullish
1. Double Bottom Line
*Same height
Neck Bullish
2. Inverted Head
and Shoulder Line
26 26
15 Breakout Patterns (Reversal)
27 27
15 Breakout Patterns (Continuation)
Bullish
8. Bullish Rectangle
Bullish
9. Bullish Pennant
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15 Breakout Patterns (Continuation)
Source: Nomura 29
15 Breakout Patterns (Neutral)
Bullish
Bullish Bullish
*Same height
Bearish Bearish
Bearish
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Price Gaps
Exhaustion Gap
- near the end of an uptrend
Breakaway Gap
- occurs on heavy volume at the end of
the trending pattern and the beginning
of a significant market move
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Contents
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Three Directions
1. Uptrend
with ascending peaks
and troughs
2. Downtrend
with descending peak
and troughs
3. Sideways
with horizontal peaks
and troughs
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Three Classifications
Ⅱ. Secondary Trend 4
2
B
A C
Ⅲ. Minor Trend
3 Ⅰ. Major Trend
1
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Support and Resistance
Support: A level where buying interest is sufficiently strong to overcome selling pressure
Resistance: A level where selling pressure is sufficiently strong to overcome buying pressure
Resistance
Resistance
Resistance Support Resistance
Support
Support
Support
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Support and Resistance
Buy at Support” and “Sell at Resistance”
A breakout is when prices pass through and stay through an area of support or resistance.
SELL
Resistance Resistance
SELL
Support Support
BUY BUY
Support Support
BUY
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Trend line & Channel line
Trend Line: A diagonal line between two or more price pivot points
Channel Line
Trend Line
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Trend line & Channel line
BUY
Breakout
SELL
Channel Line
Failure
SELL
BUY
BUY
Trend Line
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Retracement
A retracement is a temporary reversal in the direction of a stock's price, countering the prevailing trend.
200 Retracement
100
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Contents
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Volume
The Volume is the amount of shares traded over a given time period, which is crucial information on
selling/buying of the stocks. Volume analysis is the technique of assessing the health of a trend based
on volume activity. The volume indicator is the most popular indicator used by market technicians.
Stock Price
Volume
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Source: BDO Nomura
Volume Indications
- market participants are interested in seeing the price go lower in a downtrend and are willing to sell
lower in order to participate in the upcoming market action
- market participants are losing interest in seeing the price go lower in a downtrend and are more
willing to sell higher
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Volume Spike patterns
Stock Price
Volume
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Stock Price and Volume
Outlook (Implication)
Stock Price Volume
Strong Trend
(Continued/Limited?)
Weak trend
(Already peaked?)
Strong Trend
(Continued decrease?)
Weak trend
(Near the bottom?)
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Market Cycle of Price and Volume
Warning
Stock Price
(5) Hold out on
Sell Buying
High (4)
(6)
(8)
(2)
Hold out on
Selling (1) Buy
Observation
High
Low Volume 45
Volume Oscillators
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Contents
47
What are Moving Averages?
Moving Averages (MA) are widely-used indicators which are used to identify trends, execute trades,
and act as support and resistance. MA is the price of a product averaged out over time, giving a
smoother line than individual prices that are more volatile due to short-term "noise". Long-term traders
often look at the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMA. Short term traders prefer the 5- and 20-day MA as these
represent a week and a month.
30
25
20
15
10
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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3 types of Moving Averages
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Moving Average Directions
Upward direction
>>BULL trend
Sideways direction
>>Sideway trend
Downward direction
>>BEAR trend
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Golden/Death Cross
Long-term MA
Long-term MA (200-day MA)
(200-day MA) Short-term MA
(50-day MA)
Short-term MA
(50-day MA)
The 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA The 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA
(Entry Point) (Exit Point)
Source: Nomura 51
Moving Average and Stock Price
>>BUY signals
Stock Price is going up over MA Stock Price is going down to MA but rebounds
(MA is flat or in an upward trend) again (MA is upward trend)
MA
Stock Price
Source: Nomura 52
Moving Average and Stock Price
>>SELL signals
Stock price is going down below MA (MA is Stock price is going up towards MA but
flat or in a downward trend) falls down again (MA is downward trend)
Source: Nomura 53
Contents
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Oscillators
An oscillator is a secondary indicator that varies over time within a band. Oscillators are used to
discover short periods of overbought or oversold conditions. (e.g. RSI, Stochastics, MACD etc.)
- An oscillator is most useful when its value has reached an extreme reading near the upper or lower
end of its boundaries.
- A divergence between the oscillators and the price action when the oscillator is in an extreme position,
is usually an important indicator.
- Crossing of the zero line can be an important trading signal in the direction of the price trend.
Overbought
Oversold
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Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI, developed by J. Welles Wilder, measures the velocity of a stock price movement to identify
overbought and oversold conditions. Use RSI to recognize potential turning points to help make
entry/exit decisions. RSI values are calculated from closing prices.
EXIT POINT
A
RSI = x 100%
A + B
A = Avg. of N-day up closes
B = Avg. of N-day down closes
ENTRY POINT
OVER BOUGHT
>70% Overbought
Stochastics measure the velocity of a stock price movement to identify overbought and oversold
conditions. This indicator show the current price relative to highs & lows over a time period. In an
uptrend, markets tend to close near the high and in a down-trend they tend to close nearer to the lows.
%K %D
>80% Overbought
<20% Oversold
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MACD(Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
MACD is an indicator of the change in a stock's underlying price trend. The theory suggests that when a
price is trending, it is expected that speculative forces "test" the trend. MACD shows characteristics of
both a trending indicator and an oscillator. While the primary function is to identify turning points in a
trend, the level at which the signals occur determines the strength of the reading.
Signal Line
A
B
Histogram
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Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are defined using the standard deviation from a Simple Moving Average (SMA). It plots
lines above and below the SMA at a specified number of standard deviations. It is used to identify periods
of high and low volatility, as well as periods when prices are at extreme and possibly unstable levels.
These bands become narrower during less volatile periods and wider during more volatile periods.
Lower Band
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Contents
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Risk Management in TA
61
Technical Checklist
TA is a blend of many approaches. Each approach adds something to the analyst’s knowledge of the
market. Different approaches work better in certain market situations, the key is knowing which tools to
emphasize, and this comes with knowledge and experience.
The following Technical Checklist is provided to help the user touch all bases. The checklist is not all-
inclusive, but does contain the more important factors to keep in mind.
Technical Checklist
1. What is the direction of the main/sector indices?
2. What are the weekly and monthly continuation chart showing?
3. Are the major, intermediate, and minor trends up, down, or sideways?
4. Where are the important support and resistance levels?
5. Where are the important trend lines or channels?
6. Is volume confirming the price action?
7. Where are the 33%, 50% and 66% retracements?
8. Are there any price gaps and what type are they?
9. Are there any major reversal/continuation patterns visible?
10. What are the price objectives from those patterns?
11. Which way are the moving averages pointing?
12. Are the oscillators overbought or oversold?
13. Are any divergences apparent on the oscillators?
14. Are there any cycle tops or bottoms due?
15. Is the market showing right or left translation?
After you’ve arrived at a bullish or bearish conclusion, ask yourself the following questions;
1. Which way will this market trend over the next 1-3 months?
2. Am I going to buy or sell this market?
3. How many shares will I trade?
4. How much am I prepared to risk if I’m wrong?
5. What is my profit objective?
6. Where will I enter the market?
7. What type of order will I use?
8. Where will I place my protective stop?
Going through the checklist won’t guarantee the right conclusions, it’s only meant to help you ask the
right questions. Asking the right questions is the surest way to finding the right answers. The keys to
successful trading are knowledge, discipline and patience. The final step is putting that plan of action
to work. Even though it won’t guarantee success, it will greatly increase the odds of winning in the
stock markets.
63
Thank you.
Disclaimer
This presentation is being issued solely for information purposes. This presentation does not contain all of the information required by a party to evaluate the
prospects of participating or utilizing the proposed financial products. Potential participants must conduct their own investigations and analysis and rely on the
results of such investigation in coming up with a decision to participate in any of the proposed financial products. The data and information presented and included
in this presentation do not purport to be complete and exhaustive. They have not been independently verified as to their veracity and timeliness. BDO Nomura
Securities, Inc., including their respective allied entities, as well as their respective agents, advisers, directors, officers, employees or representatives make no
warranty or representation, express or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the presentation. This disclaimer extends to any statements,
opinions or conclusions contained in, or any omissions from, the presentation or in respect or in respect of written or oral communications transmitted or otherwise
made available to the prospective participants, and no representation or warranty is made in respect of any such statements, opinions or conclusions. The contents
of this presentation are strictly private and confidential. Accordingly, except with the prior written consent of BDO Nomura Securities, Inc., the information contained
in the presentation must be held in complete confidence.
64