BELANIGUE, REMALYN L.

BSA-2A

PROBLEM 1 (Saki Motorcycle)

A. 3 month Moving Average Forecast April-January
Month Motorcycle Sales Moving Average
January 9 -
February 7 -
March 10 -
April 8 8.67
May 7 8.33
June 12 8.33
July 10 9
August 11 9.67
September 12 11
October 10 11
November 14 11
December 16 12
January 13.33

PROBLEM 2 ( Chairperson)
A. 3 semester Moving Average 4-9
Students Moving
Semester Enrolled in OPM Average
1 400 -
2 450 -
3 350 -
4 420 400
5 500 406.67
6 575 423.33
7 490 498.33
8 650 521.67
9 571.67

PROBLEM 3 (Emily Andrews)

A. Using a 3-month average, forecast the fund price for month 21.
Month Fund Price Moving Average
1 63 1/4 -
2 60 1/8 -
3 61 3/4 -
4 64 1/4 61 5/7
5 59 3/8 62
 6 57 7/8 61 4/5
7 62 1/4 60 1/2
8 65 1/8 59 5/6
9 68 1/4 61 3/4
10 65 1/2 65 1/5
11 68 1/8 66 2/7
12 63 1/4 67 2/7
13 64 3/8 65 5/8
14 68 5/8 65 1/4
15 70 1/8 65 3/7
16 72 3/4 70 1/2
17 74 1/8 70 1/2
18 71 3/4 72 1/3
19 75 1/2 72 7/8
20 76 3/4 73 4/5
21 74 2/3

C. Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast, using

a= 0.40, and forecast the fund price for month 21
Month Fund Price Exponential Smoothing
1 63 1/4 -
2 60 1/8 63 1/4
3 61 3/4 62
4 64 1/4 61 8/9
5 59 3/8 62 5/6
6 57 7/8 61 4/9
7 62 1/4 60
8 65 1/8 60 8/9
9 68 1/4 62 3/5
10 65 1/2 64 6/7
11 68 1/8 65 1/9
12 63 1/4 66 1/3
13 64 3/8 65 1/9
14 68 5/8 64 4/5
15 70 1/8 66 1/3
16 72 3/4 67 6/7
17 74 1/8 69 4/5
18 71 3/4 71 5/9
19 75 1/2 71 5/8
20 76 3/4 73 1/6
21 74 3/5
B. 5 month Moving Average Forecast June-January
Month Motorcycle Sales Moving Average
January 9 -
February 7 -
March 10 -
April 8 -
May 7 -
June 12 8.2
July 10 8.8
August 11 9.4
September 12 9.6
October 10 10.4
November 14 11
December 16 11.4
January 12.6

B. exponentially smoothed forecast (a=0.20) for the enrollment data.

Students Exponential
Semester Enrolled in OPM Smoothing
1 400 -
2 450 400
3 350 410
4 420 398
5 500 402.4
6 575 421.92
7 490 452.54
8 650 460.03
9 498.02
a=0.20
F_t+1= aD_t + (1-a)F_t

B. Using a 3-month Weighted average, forecast the fund price for the month 21
Most recent month 0.6
Next recent month 0.3
Third month 0.1
Month Fund Price Moving Average
1 63 1/4 -
2 60 1/8 -
3 61 3/4 -
4 64 1/4 61 2/5
5 59 3/8 63 1/9
 6 57 7/8 61 1/9
7 62 1/4 59
8 65 1/8 60 2/3
9 68 1/4 63 5/9
10 65 1/2 66 5/7
11 68 1/8 66 2/7
12 63 1/4 67 1/3
13 64 3/8 64 8/9
14 68 5/8 64 2/5
15 70 1/8 66 4/5
16 72 3/4 69 1/9
17 74 1/8 71 5/9
18 71 3/4 73 1/3
19 75 1/2 72 5/9
20 76 3/4 74 1/4
21 75 7/8

D. Using the 3 – month average, complete the table using the adjusted
exponential smoothing with β = 0.35
Month Fund Price Exponential Smoothing Trend
1 63 1/4 -
2 60 1/8 63.25 0
3 61 3/4 62 -0.44
4 64 1/4 61.9 -0.32
5 59 3/8 62.84 0.12
6 57 7/8 61.45 -0.41
7 62 1/4 60.02 -0.77
8 65 1/8 60.91 -0.19
9 68 1/4 62.6 0.47
10 65 1/2 64.86 1.1
11 68 1/8 65.12 0.8
12 63 1/4 66.32 0.94
13 64 3/8 65.09 0.18
14 68 5/8 64.8 0.02
15 70 1/8 66.33 0.55
16 72 3/4 67.85 0.89
17 74 1/8 69.81 1.26
18 71 3/4 71.54 1.42
19 75 1/2 71.62 0.96
20 76 3/4 73.17 1.16
21 74.6 1.26

a= 0.40
β = 0.35
 Adjusted
Exponential Smoothing

63.25
61.56
61.58
62.96
61.05
59.26
60.73
63.07
65.96
65.92
67.26
65.27
64.82
66.88
68.74
71.07
72.96
72.58
74.34
75.86
SEM STUDENTS ENROLLED 3 SEM
1 400 -
2 450 -
3 350 -
4 420 966.6667
5 500 940
6 575 936.6667
7 490 1111.667
8 650 1238.333
9
PERIOD (X) DEMAND (Y) xy x
1 37
2 40
3 41
4 37
5 45
6 50
7 43
8 47
9 56
10 52
11 55
12 54
78 557
WINS (X) ATTENDANCE (Y) XY X2 Y2
4 36,300 145200 16 1317690000
6 40,100 240600 36 1608010000
6 41,200 247200 36 1697440000
8 53,000 424000 64 2809000000
6 44,000 264000 36 1936000000
7 45,600 319200 49 2079360000
5 39,000 195000 25 1521000000
7 47,500 332500 49 2256250000
49 346,700 2167700 311 15224750000

60,000

50,000

`
40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5
DAY X Y X2 Y2 XY
1 79 147 6241 21609 11613
2 76 143 5776 20449 10868
3 78 147 6084 21609 11466
4 84 168 7056 28224 14112
5 90 206 8100 42436 18540
6 83 155 6889 24025 12865
7 93 192 8649 36864 17856
8 94 211 8836 44521 19834
9 97 209 9409 43681 20273
10 85 187 7225 34969 15895
11 88 200 7744 40000 17600
12 82 150 6724 22500 12300
TOTAL 1,029 2,115 88733 380887 183222
WINS (X) PROMOTION ATTENDANCE (Y)
4 29,500 36,300
6 55,700 40,100
6 71,300 41,200
8 87,000 53,000 SUMMARY OUTPUT
6 75,000 44,000
7 72,000 45,600 Regression Statistics
5 55,300 39,000 Multiple R 0.9491834134713
7 81,600 47,500 R Square 0.900949152409
Adjusted R Square 0.8613288133726
Standard Error 1988.6873761105
Observations 8

ANOVA
df
Regression 2
Residual 5
Total 7

Coefficients
Intercept 19094.423618151
WINS (X) 3560.996402315
PROMOTION 0.0368900025433
 y=19,094.42 + 3, 561x1 + 0.0369x2

SS MS F Significance F
179864363 89932181.3 22.739562 0.0030878
19774387 3954877.48
199638750

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
4139.28194 4.612979708 0.005772 8454.0606 29734.787 8454.0606 29734.787
1499.9812 2.37402736 0.0636342 -294.828 7416.8208 -294.828 7416.8208
0.10134636 0.363999291 0.7307442 -0.223629 0.2974091 -0.223629 0.2974091