Hypothesis Testing

HYPOTHESIS TESTING
By
A.Bofa
1
Population Sample
Parameter
Statistics
μ 𝑥ҧ
σ 𝑠
RANDOMIZATION
N n
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Hypotheses Testing/Significance
Test
• This is one of the most important and commonly used technique
of statistical inference.
• Suppose a series of observations were randomly selected from
a population. We might be interested in a certain hypothesis
which specifies values for one parameter of the population.
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Statistics: summarize data
• Descriptive statistics
• Describe population
• % of women of reproductive age using contraceptive methods
• % of women received antenatal care from trained health personnel
• Inferential statistics
• Used for hypothesis testing
• Does delivery at health facility reduce neonatal and maternal mortality?
• Does risk perception increase condom use?
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Hypothesis
•A hypothesis is a statement about one or more populations.

✓ 75% of women received antenatal care
✓ Antenatal care is higher among educated women
•By means of hypothesis testing one determines whether or not

such statements are compatible with available data.
•The purpose of hypothesis testing is to aid the researcher in

reaching a conclusion concerning a population by examining a
sample from that population
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Types of Hypotheses
Generally, researchers are concerned with two

types of hypotheses– research hypotheses and
statistical hypotheses.
➢ Research hypotheses are the imagination or

guess that motivates the research. Research
hypotheses lead directly to statistical hypotheses.
➢ Statistical hypotheses are hypotheses that are

stated in such a way that they may be evaluated
by appropriate statistical techniques.
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Hypotheses
There are two statistical hypotheses involved in
hypotheses testing, and these should be stated explicitly.
• The null hypothesis, denoted by H0, is the hypothesis that is to
be tested.
✓ Always assume there is no significant effect/difference within the
specified population.
• The alternative hypothesis, denoted by HA , is the hypothesis

that in some sense opposes the null hypothesis. It is the same as
the research hypothesis, or the conclusion the researcher
wishes to draw at the end of the research.
✓ Always has opposite opinion with H0.
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In a hypothetical study to test the use of outreach
health workers in improving contraceptive use in rural
areas, there are two mutually exclusive possibilities:
H0: The visits by health workers do not increase contraceptive prevalence rate
HA: The visits by health workers increase contraceptive prevalence rate
The null hypothesis states that there is no relationship.
The alternative hypothesis is the actual research

p.Value =0.01
hypothesis, which states the expectation that there is a
relationship.
 =0.001
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continued
Rules of stating statistical hypotheses
The following rules of thumb are used for deciding
what statement goes in the null hypothesis and what
statement goes in the alternative hypothesis:
➢ What we expect to be able to conclude as a result of

the test usually should be placed in the alternative
hypothesis.
➢ The null hypothesis is the hypothesis that is tested.
➢ The null and alternative hypothesis are mutually
exclusive or complementary.
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Rules of stating statistical hypotheses
The hypotheses are stated in equality terms:

either =, ≤, or ≥ must appear in the null hypotheses.
Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is 30%:
The null hypothesis is: Ho: p =0.3

The alternative hypothesis is: HA: p 0.3
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The level of significance
The level of significance, which is denoted as  , is
the probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis.
Since to reject a true null hypothesis would

constitute an error, we should make the probability
of rejecting a true null hypothesis small. We select a
small value of  in order to make the probability
of rejecting a true null hypothesis small. The most
frequently encountered values of  is 0.05.
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• p-value: For a specific test of a hypothesis, the likelihood or probability of
observing, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true, an
outcome as far away or further from the null hypothesis than the one
observed.
• The p-value measures the rareness of an observed outcome, under the

assumption that the null hypothesis is true.
✓If the p-value is small, typically p < 0.05, then it is often judged that the null
hypothesis is unlikely to be true because, if it were, one would not expect
to have observed so unlikely an outcome
✓The p-value, on the other hand, can be determined only after the test
statistic is calculated. They are related in the sense that, if α = 0.05,
then we will reject the null hypothesis as being true if the value we
calculate for p is p < 0.05.
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Types of error
α-error or Type I error: The error made when we reject a null

hypothesis as being true when it is, if fact, true. The number we select
for α, typically α = 0.05, represents our willingness to make an α-error.
We control the frequency of making this error when we select the α-level
as an initial part of setting up the hypothesis test. When we use this
level, we are saying that we are willing to run a 5% risk of rejecting the
null hypothesis as true when it is actually true.
When null is true, and we say it

is false(reject)
15 - 13
Types of error
β-error or Type II error: The error made when we accept as true a null
hypothesis that is false. The value of β is the likelihood of making a β-
error. Controlling this error is more complicated than controlling the α-
error. It usually involves selecting an appropriate sample size to detect a
difference of a specified magnitude.
When null is false, and we say it is

true(accept)
15 - 14
Types of error
Null: You are not pregnant
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Statistical decision and conclusion
Statistical decision consists of rejecting or not
rejecting the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is
rejected if the computed value (absolute) of the test
statistic is greater than the standard value (absolute)
of the test statistic, and it is not rejected if the
computed value of the test statistic is smaller.
If H0 is rejected, we conclude that HA is true. If H0 is

not rejected (that is, if we fail to reject H0), we
conclude that H0 may be true.
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What does it mean if the p-value
is significant?
The p-value can be perceived as an oracle that judges our results. If the
p-value is 0.05 or lower, the result is declared as significant, but if it is
higher than 0.05, the result is non-significant and tends to be passed over
in silence.
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HYPOTHESIS TESTING

•A hypothesis is a statement about one or more populations.

•By means of hypothesis testing one determines whether or not

•The purpose of hypothesis testing is to aid the researcher in

Generally, researchers are concerned with two

➢ Research hypotheses are the imagination or

➢ Statistical hypotheses are hypotheses that are

• The alternative hypothesis, denoted by HA , is the hypothesis

HA: The visits by health workers increase contraceptive prevalence rate

The null hypothesis states that there is no relationship.

The alternative hypothesis is the actual research

➢ What we expect to be able to conclude as a result of

The hypotheses are stated in equality terms:

The null hypothesis is: Ho: p =0.3

Since to reject a true null hypothesis would

• The p-value measures the rareness of an observed outcome, under the

α-error or Type I error: The error made when we reject a null

When null is true, and we say it

When null is false, and we say it is

Null: You are not pregnant

If H0 is rejected, we conclude that HA is true. If H0 is

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