Prince Pipes and Fittings (PRINCPIP

IN)
Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs690 | TP: Rs816

August 11, 2023 Healthy volume growth despite internal issues

Q1FY24 Result Update Quick Pointers:

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target |  Reco  Despite challenges, achieved volume growth of ~19% YoY in Q1FY24.

Change in Estimates  EBITDA/kg down to ~Rs 12.2/kg (vs Rs 14.0/Kg in Q1FY23).

Current Previous
FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E Prince Pipes and Fittings (PRINCPIP) has maintained its healthy volume
Rating ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE growth guidance of higher double digit in FY24 and expects 13-15% margin
Target Price 816 718
Sales (Rs. m) 29,117 34,798 30,335 34,313 in the near term given 1) healthy volume growth, 2) product mix towards VAP
% Chng. (4.0) 1.4 and 3) business stabilization post ERP implementation. We have maintained
EBITDA (Rs. m) 3,589 5,021 4,106 4,999
% Chng. (12.6) 0.4 our FY25E earnings and increased target multiple to 29x (at 5yrs avg. PE,
EPS (Rs.) 19.0 28.4 22.2 28.3 earlier 25x) with TP of Rs 816 (earlier Rs 718). However, after factoring
% Chng. (14.7) 0.5
Q1FY24 numbers we downward revise our FY24 earnings estimate by 14.7%.
PRINCPIP reported EBITDA/kg of Rs 12.2/kg, but after excluding inventory
Key Financials - Consolidated loss (Rs100mn) & one time bathware launch expenses of Rs 20mn,
Y/e Mar FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E EBITDA/kg stood at Rs ~15.4/kg, which is still considered healthy despite
Sales (Rs. m) 26,568 27,109 29,117 34,798
performance being materially disrupted. We believe performance should
EBITDA (Rs. m) 4,188 2,503 3,589 5,021
Margin (%) 15.8 9.2 12.3 14.4 further improve with focus on increasing capacity utilization, premiumisation
PAT (Rs. m) 2,526 1,214 2,097 3,143 and better FCF generation. We estimate FY23-25E Sales/EBITDA/PAT CAGR
EPS (Rs.) 22.9 11.0 19.0 28.4
of 13.3%/41.6%/60.9%, with volume CAGR of 17.3% and EBITDA margin of
Gr. (%) 10.3 (51.9) 72.7 49.9
DPS (Rs.) 3.5 - 3.5 3.5 14.4% in FY25E. Maintain ‘Accumulate’.
Yield (%) 0.5 - 0.5 0.5
RoE (%) 21.9 9.2 14.5 18.8
Revenues decline of 8.4% YoY, PAT up by 22.4% YoY: PRINCPIP revenue came
RoCE (%) 27.8 12.4 19.0 24.6
EV/Sales (x) 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.1 in at Rs 5.5bn (PLe: Rs5.0bn) in Q1FY24 with volume growth of ~19% YoY (PLe:-
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.4 29.8 20.7 14.6 0.8%YoY), despite performance being materially disrupted, due to transitioning
PE (x) 30.2 62.8 36.4 24.3
challenges arising from ERP implementation and decrease in realisation by ~23%
P/BV (x) 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.2
YoY with correction in PVC resin prices by more than 40%. Gross margin expanded
by 440 bps to 25.2% YoY, while EBITDA margin expanded by 90bps YoY to 8.2%
Key Data PRCE.BO | PRINCPIP IN in Q1FY24 (v/s PLe: 13.0% & cons. est. of 11.5%) due to unfavorable product mix
52-W High / Low Rs.724 / Rs.510 and pipe-fitting ratio, given ERP issues relating to dispatch of fittings. Also, there
Sensex / Nifty 65,323 / 19,428
Market Cap Rs.76bn/ $ 921m was increase in agri pipe contribution on account of seasonality. PAT came at Rs
Shares Outstanding 111m 196mn (PLe: Rs 335mn & cons. est. Rs 272mn) in Q1FY24, with increase in other
3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.224.97m
income and decline in interest cost. Working capital days stood at 59 days as of
Jun’23 compared to 57 days in Mar’23 due to increase in inventory days from 57 to
Shareholding Pattern (%) 73 days.
Promoter’s 60.94
Foreign 6.24
Domestic Institution 15.75 Con call highlights: 1) Operating results showed resilience, despite performance
Public & Others 17.06
being materially disrupted, due to transitioning challenges arising from ERP
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -
implementation. 2) Advertisement expenses were Rs 120mn in Q1FY24; will be at
2% rev. in FY24. 3) EBITDA margin impacted in Q1FY24, which will normalize to
Stock Performance (%)
13-15% Q3FY24 onwards. 4) Planned to increase capacity by 20-30KMT in FY24
1M 6M 12M
Absolute 8.1 20.1 14.8
through brown field and by 40kMT in FY25 through Bihar facility. 5) Greenfield
Relative 8.5 11.6 4.3 expansion in Bihar for ~40KMTAP capacity, operational by Q4FY25 with
PVC/HDPE pipe. 6) East India contributes 15-20% revenue to PRINCPIP, which
Praveen Sahay will improve with Bihar expansion. 7) Debtor days increased due to ERP disruption,
[email protected] | 91-22-66322369 which will normalize from Q2FY24. 8) Company has increased channel financing
to 132 distributors from 70 and amount to Rs 1.05bn from Rs 700mn YoY. 9)
Bathware segment started in Q1FY24, will take 12-18months to breakeven and 6-
8 quarters to reach company level margin. 10) Bathware initially established its
presence within B2B segment and is currently in the process of gradually expanding
into B2C market, with investment in employee & advertisement.

August 11, 2023 1

 Prince Pipes and Fittings

Q1FY24 Result Overview: Revenue decline 8.4% YoY; PAT grew by 22.4% YoY
YoY gr. QoQ gr. YoY gr.
Y/e March Q1FY24 Q1FY23 Q4FY23 FY23 FY22
(%) (%) (%)
Net Sales 5,536 6,041 (8.4) 7,644 (27.6) 27,109 26,568 2.0
Expenditure
Operating & Manufacturing Expenses 4,142 4,785 (13.4) 5,121 (19.1) 20,922 18,915 10.6
% of Net Sales 74.8 79.2 (4.4) 67.0 7.8 77.2 71.2 6.0
Gross Profit 1,393 1,256 10.9 2,523 (44.8) 6,187 7,653 (19.2)
% of Net Sales 25.2 20.8 4.4 33.0 (7.8) 22.8 28.8 (6.0)
Personnel Cost 320 262 22.1 309 3.7 1,161 1,162 (0.1)
% of Net Sales 5.8 4.3 1.4 4.0 1.7 4.3 4.4 (0.1)
Other Expenses 620 555 11.6 731 (15.2) 2,523 2,335 8.0
% of Net Sales 11.2 9.2 2.0 9.6 1.6 9.3 8.8 0.5
Total Expenditure 940 818 15.0 1,040 (9.6) 3,684 3,497 5.3
EBITDA 453 439 3.3 1,483 (69.5) 2,503 4,156 (39.8)
Margin (%) 8.2 7.3 0.9 19.4 (11.2) 9.2 15.6 (6.4)
Other income 38 12 206.9 34 11.1 85 55 56.3
Depreciation 218 197 10.9 211 3.2 830 703 18.1
EBIT 235 242 (2.9) 1,272 (81.5) 1,673 3,453 (51.5)
Interest 17 34 (48.4) 28 (38.3) 110 139 (20.8)
PBT 256 221 15.9 1,278 (80.0) 1,648 3,369 (51.1)
Total Taxes 59 60 (1.5) 337 (82.4) 434 875 (50.4)
ETR (%) 23.2 27.3 (4.1) 26.4 (3.1) 26.3 26.0 0.4
Adj. PAT 196 160 22.4 941 (79.2) 1,214 2,494 (51.3)
Source: Company, PL

Key operating parameter: Volume grew by 18.9% YoY, while realization down by 22.9% YoY
YoY gr. QoQ gr. YoY gr.
Particulars Q1FY24 Q1FY23 Q4FY23 FY23 FY22
(%) (%) (%)
Sales Volumes (KTPA) 37 31 18.9 44 (16.2) 158 139 13.4
Realization (Rs/kg) 149 193 (22.9) 172 (13.6) 172 191 (10.1)
EBITDA per unit (Rs/kg) 12.2 14.0 (13.1) 33.5 (63.6) 15.9 30.1 (47.3)
Source: Company, PL

August 11, 2023 2

 Prince Pipes and Fittings

Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E Y/e Mar FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E

Net Revenues 26,568 27,109 29,117 34,798 Non-Current Assets

YoY gr. (%) 28.3 2.0 7.4 19.5
Cost of Goods Sold 18,915 20,922 21,306 25,253 Gross Block 9,425 10,419 11,919 13,419
Gross Profit 7,653 6,187 7,811 9,545 Tangibles 9,384 10,363 11,863 13,363
Margin (%) 28.8 22.8 26.8 27.4 Intangibles 41 56 56 56
Employee Cost 1,520 1,531 1,679 1,717
Other Expenses 959 1,163 1,480 1,536 Acc: Dep / Amortization 2,624 3,454 4,330 5,264
Tangibles 2,624 3,454 4,330 5,264
EBITDA 4,188 2,503 3,589 5,021 Intangibles - - - -
YoY gr. (%) 13.9 (40.2) 43.4 39.9
Margin (%) 15.8 9.2 12.3 14.4 Net fixed assets 6,801 6,965 7,588 8,154
Tangibles 6,760 6,909 7,532 8,098
Depreciation and Amortization 703 830 876 934 Intangibles 41 56 56 56

EBIT 3,485 1,673 2,712 4,087 Capital Work In Progress 226 236 236 236
Margin (%) 13.1 6.2 9.3 11.7 Goodwill - - - -
Non-Current Investments 97 90 90 90
Net Interest 139 110 71 86 Net Deferred tax assets (123) (137) (137) (137)
Other Income 55 86 154 200 Other Non-Current Assets - - - -

Profit Before Tax 3,401 1,648 2,795 4,200 Current Assets

Margin (%) 12.8 6.1 9.6 12.1 Investments - - - -
Inventories 6,188 4,256 4,670 5,535
Total Tax 875 434 699 1,057 Trade receivables 4,346 4,150 4,458 5,327
Effective tax rate (%) 25.7 26.3 25.0 25.2 Cash & Bank Balance 687 2,161 2,758 3,868
Other Current Assets 1,041 679 730 872
Profit after tax 2,526 1,214 2,097 3,143 Total Assets 19,390 18,542 20,533 24,087
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associate - - - - Equity
Equity Share Capital 1,106 1,106 1,106 1,106
Adjusted PAT 2,526 1,214 2,097 3,143 Other Equity 11,547 12,534 14,244 17,000
YoY gr. (%) 10.8 (51.9) 72.7 49.9 Total Networth 12,653 13,640 15,349 18,106
Margin (%) 9.5 4.5 7.2 9.0
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) 18 (2) - - Non-Current Liabilities
Long Term borrowings - - - -
Reported PAT 2,545 1,213 2,097 3,143 Provisions 127 138 138 138
YoY gr. (%) 9.4 (52.4) 72.9 49.9 Other non current liabilities - - - -
Margin (%) 9.6 4.5 7.2 9.0
Current Liabilities
Other Comprehensive Income 2 - - - ST Debt / Current of LT Debt 1,500 581 624 746
Total Comprehensive Income 2,547 1,213 2,097 3,143 Trade payables 3,986 3,202 3,439 4,110
Equity Shares O/s (m) 111 111 111 111 Other current liabilities 1,002 814 815 820
EPS (Rs) 22.9 11.0 19.0 28.4 Total Equity & Liabilities 19,390 18,542 20,533 24,087
Source: Company Data, PL Research Source: Company Data, PL Research

August 11, 2023 3

 Prince Pipes and Fittings

Cash Flow (Rs m) Key Financial Metrics

Y/e Mar FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E Year
Y/e Mar FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E

PBT 3,369 1,648 2,795 4,200 Per Share(Rs)

Add. Depreciation 703 830 876 934 EPS 22.9 11.0 19.0 28.4
Add. Interest 139 110 71 86 CEPS 29.2 18.5 26.9 36.9
Less Financial Other Income 55 86 154 200 BVPS 114.4 123.4 138.8 163.8
Add. Other (22) (86) (154) (200) FCF (16.9) 23.8 7.8 11.4
Op. profit before WC changes 4,188 2,503 3,589 5,021 DPS 3.5 - 3.5 3.5
Net Changes-WC (3,499) 1,566 (532) (1,202) Return Ratio(%)
Direct tax (875) (434) (699) (1,057) RoCE 27.8 12.4 19.0 24.6
Net cash from Op. activities (185) 3,635 2,358 2,761 ROIC 21.5 10.2 16.5 22.6
Capital expenditures (1,680) (1,004) (1,500) (1,500) RoE 21.9 9.2 14.5 18.8
Interest / Dividend Income 55 86 154 200 Balance Sheet
Others (35) 14 - - Net Debt : Equity (x) 0.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.2)
Net Cash from Invt. activities (1,660) (904) (1,346) (1,300) Net Working Capital (Days) 90 70 71 71
Issue of share cap. / premium 5 - - - Valuation(x)
Debt changes 648 (919) 43 122 PER 30.2 62.8 36.4 24.3
Dividend paid (387) - (387) (387) P/B 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.2
Interest paid (139) (110) (71) (86) P/CEPS 23.6 37.3 25.7 18.7
Others 105 (227) - - EV/EBITDA 18.4 29.8 20.7 14.6
Net cash from Fin. activities 233 (1,256) (415) (351) EV/Sales 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.1
Net change in cash (1,612) 1,474 597 1,110 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 - 0.5 0.5
Free Cash Flow (1,865) 2,631 858 1,261 Source: Company Data, PL Research
Source: Company Data, PL Research

Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Y/e Mar Q2FY23 Q3FY23 Q4FY23 Q1FY24
Net Revenue 6,365 7,059 7,644 5,536
YoY gr. (%) (16.4) 6.3 (15.2) (8.4)
Raw Material Expenses 5,533 5,483 5,121 4,142
Gross Profit 832 1,576 2,523 1,393
Margin (%) 13.1 22.3 33.0 25.2
EBITDA (113) 695 1,483 453
YoY gr. (%) (109.2) (37.5) 5.6 3.3
Margin (%) (1.8) 9.8 19.4 8.2
Depreciation / Depletion 212 211 211 218
EBIT (325) 484 1,272 235
Margin (%) (5.1) 6.9 16.6 4.2
Net Interest 32 16 28 17
Other Income 27 12 34 38
Profit before Tax (330) 480 1,278 256
Margin (%) (5.2) 6.8 16.7 4.6
Total Tax (89) 126 337 59
Effective tax rate (%) 27.0 26.3 26.4 23.2
Profit after Tax (241) 354 941 196
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associates - - - -
Adjusted PAT (241) 354 941 196
YoY gr. (%) (131.7) (47.4) 6.7 22.4
Margin (%) (3.8) 5.0 12.3 3.5
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - -
Reported PAT (241) 354 941 196
YoY gr. (%) (131.7) (47.4) 6.7 22.4
Margin (%) (3.8) 5.0 12.3 3.5
Other Comprehensive Income - - - -
Total Comprehensive Income (241) 354 941 196
Avg. Shares O/s (m) 111 111 111 111
EPS (Rs) (2.2) 3.2 8.5 1.8
Source: Company Data, PL Research

August 11, 2023 4

 Prince Pipes and Fittings
Price Chart Recommendation History

(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
875
1 04-Jul-23 Accumulate 718 657

692 2 26-May-23 BUY 716 610

3 06-Apr-23 BUY 693 574
509
4 01-Mar-23 BUY 693 552
326

144
Aug - 20

Aug - 21

Aug - 22

Aug - 23
Feb - 21

Feb - 22

Feb - 23

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. Company Name Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)
1 Astral Ltd. Hold 1,955 1,924
2 Bajaj Electricals Accumulate 1,337 1,220
3 Century Plyboard (I) BUY 800 629
4 Cera Sanitaryware Hold 8,224 7,917
5 Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals BUY 338 286
6 Finolex Industries Accumulate 197 184
7 Greenpanel Industries BUY 459 341
8 Havells India BUY 1,460 1,348
9 Kajaria Ceramics Hold 1,363 1,393
10 KEI Industries Hold 2,319 2,270
11 Polycab India Accumulate 4,760 4,309
12 Prince Pipes and Fittings Accumulate 718 657
13 Supreme Industries Hold 3,377 3,382
14 Voltas Hold 813 767

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%
Accumulate : 5% to 15%
Hold : +5% to -5%
Reduce : -5% to -15%
Sell : < -15%
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

August 11, 2023 5

 Prince Pipes and Fittings

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Date: 2023.08.11 22:27:09 +05'30'