AIA Engineering - Q4FY22 Result Update - 30 May 2022

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Result Update

MAY 30, 2022

Result Update AIA ENGINEERING LTD (AIA)


Stock Details
PRICE RS.2071 TARGET RS.2225 ADD
Market cap (Rs cr) : 19534
52-wk Hi/Lo (Rs) : 2220-1476 AIA’s Q4FY22 consolidated result was better than our estimates driven by
Face Value (Rs) : 2
better than expected volume and margin. As per management, the company
3M Avg. daily volume : 98,571
Shares o/s (cr) : 9.4
has been able to pass on the impact of the higher raw material cost and
Source: Moneycontrol, BSE freight expenses. Revenue, EBITDA and PAT for the quarter grew 27.1% yoy,
33.5% yoy and 45.7% yoy, respectively. EBITDA margin at 20.7% grew 100
Financial Summary
bps yoy (vs our estimate of 18%) due to company’s ability to pass on cost
Y/E Mar (Rs cr) FY22 FY23E FY24E
inflation. The company reported 38% yoy increase in realization which offset
Sales 3,514 4,292 4,803
Growth (%) 25 22 12
7.9% yoy decline volume. As per management, contribution from new
EBITDA 721 889 1,009 geographies partly compensated the volume lost in South Africa and
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.5 20.7 21.0 Canada (due to imposition of anti-dumping duty). The management has
Net profit 620 734 832 guided for volume growth of 30000-40000 tonnes per annum in the next two
EPS (Rs) 65.7 77.9 88.2
years due to positive demand outlook from the large size mining
Growth (%) 9.5 18.5 13.3
replacement market and shift from forge media to high chrome media. The
BVPS (Rs) 504.1 573.0 652.2
DPS (Rs) 9.0 9.0 9.0
management expects EBITDA margin to sustain in the range of 20-21%. We
ROE (%) 13.0 13.6 13.5 raise our earnings estimates for FY23/24 in the range of 9%-11% to factor in
ROCE (%) 16.5 17.5 17.4 strong volume guidance and better margins. We maintain ADD with revised
P/E (x) 31.5 26.6 23.5 fair value of Rs2225 (from Rs2000 earlier), valuing the stock at ~25x FY24E
EV/EBITDA (x) 24.93 20.01 17.00
earnings.
P/BV (x) 4.1 3.6 3.2
Source: Company, Kotak Securities - PCG
Key Highlights
Shareholding Pattern (%)
 Consolidated revenue for Q4FY22 stood at Rs1,093 cr (+27.1% yoy/28.9%
(%) Mar-22 Dec-21 Sep-21
qoq) is 4.5% higher than our estimates primarily driven by higher than
Promoters 58.5 58.5 58.5
expected realization. The company reported 36% yoy growth in realization,
FII 18.1 18.8 19.1
DII 20.3 19.7 19.8
but the benefit of the same was partially offset by 7.9% yoy decline in
Others 2.7 2.6 2.7 volume, but was above or estimates. AIA passed on large part of higher input
Source: Moneycontrol, BSE cost and freight cost which resulted in 360 bps yoy expansion in gross
margin.
Price Performance (%)
(%) 1M 3M 6M  As per management, the company’s business continues to face uncertainty
AIA 9.1 26.9 11.5 in terms of outlook on account of the impact of Covid in countries like China
Nifty -4.0 -1.8 -4.0 and Ukraine crisis. The management remained positive on the strong
Source: Moneycontrol, BSE demand outlook for high chrome media from mining and other industries
and expects contribution from new geographies to compensate volume lost
Price chart (Rs)
in Canada and South Africa.
2300
 As per management, its mill lining capex of 50000 tonne is expected to be
2100
completed by June’22 and is going ahead with 80000 tonne brownfield
1900 capacity expansion of grinding media to be completed by end of FY24. The
1700 company expects capex of Rs300 cr in FY23 which includes Mill Lining
1500 Project, Grinding Media Expansion Project and Hybrid Power Project.

Outlook and valuations


AIA is a well-managed company with sound track record of steady cash
Source: Moneycontrol, BSE
generation and attractive ROCEs. There is a huge opportunity for the company
from mining replacement market, which is estimated at around 30 lakh tonnes
per annum. In addition, the story of shift from forge media to high chrome media
Pankaj Kumar is expected to benefit the company in the medium to long term. The
[email protected] management expects customer conversion to pick up pace as the international
+91 22 6218 6434

Kotak Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by the Private Client Group.
MAY 30, 2022

travel restrictions eased out. Based on huge opportunity, the volume, in


management’s view, can double over a long period.
We upgrade our earnings estimates for FY23/24 in the range of 9%-11% to factor
in higher volume guidance and improved margins. The stock is trading at
26.6x/23.5x 23E/FY24E revised earnings of Rs77.9/88.2 (from Rs71.2/79.2),
respectively. We maintain ADD rating with revised fair valued of Rs2225 (from
Rs2000 earlier), by valuing the stock at ~25x FY24E earnings. Global supply
chain issues, fluctuation in currency, product mix and volatility in Ferro Chrome
prices would be the key risk to our margin and earnings estimates.

Consolidated Quarterly performance


Year to March (Rs Cr.) Q4FY22 Q4FY21 % Change Q3FY22 % Change
Income from operations 1,093 860 27.1 848 28.9
Direct Expenses 474 404 17.3 321 47.7
Gross Profit 620 456 35.8 527 17.5
Gross margin % 56.7 53.1 3.62 62.2 (5.50)
Employee Expenses 36 33 10.0 35 0.9
Other Expenses 358 255 40.6 331 8.3
Operating Expenses 867 691 25.5 687 26.3
EBITDA 226 169 33.5 161 40.2
EBITDA margin % 20.7 19.7 19.0
Depreciation 21 22 (3.4) 25 (14.5)
Other income 39 23 66.7 42 (8.4)
Net finance expense (0) 1 (130.5) 3 (108.3)
Profit before tax 244 170 43.5 176 38.4
Provision for taxes 50 37 35.4 38 32.0
Reported net profit 194 133 45.7 139 40.1
NPM (%) 17.7 15.5 16.3
EPS (Rs) 20.6 14.1 45.7 14.7 40.1
% of Revenue
Direct Expenses 43.3 46.9 37.8
Employee cost 3.3 3.8 4.2
Other Expenses 32.7 29.6 39.0
Operating expenses 79.3 80.3 81.0
Tax rate (% of PBT) 20.4 21.6 21.3
Source: Company, Kotak Securities Private Client Group

Revenue beat led by higher than expected volume and realization


AIA reported revenue (including other operating income) of Rs1,093 cr (+27.1%
yoy/28.9% qoq) in Q4FY22, 4.5% higher than our estimates despite volumes
decline of 7.9% yoy as the company continued to pass on impact of higher
commodity prices and freight expenses. As a result, net realization for Q4FY22
improved 38% yoy/3% qoq to Rs147,993/ tonne.
The company reported 72,976 tonnes of sales volume -7.9%/+25.6% yoy/qoq,
and was better than our estimates. Mining segment reported 10.2% yoy decline
while non mining segment reported 3.9% yoy decline. Volumes in the quarter
declined on yoy basis due to protectionist measures by Canada and South
Africa resulting in volume loss from these markets. As per management, the
company lost total 40k tonne volume from Canada and South Africa in FY22 due
to protectionist measure. However, the impact of the same was partially
compensated by ~30k tonne volume gained from new customers and
geographies. As per management, the company got new customers in gold,
copper and iron ore from central America, Latin America, Africa, CIS, etc.

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MAY 30, 2022

Production & Segmental Sales Volume (Tonnes)


Tonnes Q4FY22 Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ(%)
Production Volume 70,391 62,431 12.8 75,764 -7.1
Mining 44,395 49,462 -10.2 41,147 7.9
Non-mining 28,581 29,735 -3.9 16,964 68.5
Total Sales Volume 72,976 79,197 -7.9 58,111 25.6
Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Group

Mining Volume Trends (Tonnes)

60.0 48.8 Mining YoY Growth (%) 60,000


50.0
37.5 50,000
34.1
40.0 30.8
27.1 23.9
30.0 23.4 40,000
18.7 18.4 15.8
14.6
20.0 9.3
3.4 6.1 30,000
10.0 2.3 0.9 1.0
-5.2
- -9.8 -10.0
-10.2 20,000
-10.0 -21.2 -20.9
10,000
-20.0
-30.0 -
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Source: Company; Kotak Securities - Private Client Group

Non-Mining Volume Trends (Tonnes)

100.0 Non-mining YoY Growth (%) 35,000


92.6
80.0 30,000
60.0
25,000
40.0 41.1
20,000
20.0 19.9
14.5 9.6 11.1 10.0
8.6 4.2 4.6 7.0 15,000
- 1.0 -1.60.6 2.9 -6.2-3.8
-9.3 -8.8 10,000
-20.0 -14.6 -19.4 -22.1
-40.0 5,000
-47.2
-60.0 -
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22

Source: Company; Kotak Securities - Private Client Group

EBITDA margin better than estimates due to pass through of cost


Q4FY22 EBITDA margin at 20.7% grew 100 bps yoy (vs our estimate 18%) on
account of 360 bps improvement in gross margin which compensated higher
other expenses. The company has been able to pass on increase in input cost
and higher freight expenses with a lag and resulted in margin better than our
estimates. The management remained confident on passing on any further
increase in cost based on positive demand outlook for high chrome media from
mining and other industries. Therefore, the management is positive on
maintaining strong margin of 20-21% in the future as well. AIA reported PAT of
Rs194 cr (+45.7% yoy/+40.1% qoq) and was better than our estimates of Rs154
cr.

Kotak Securities – Private Client Group Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 3
MAY 30, 2022

Way ahead
As per management, headwinds in supply chain and sea trade continues to
impact cost of production. This is due to covid led restrictions in China and on-
going Ukraine-Russia war. Amidst all these challenges, the management
remained positive on shift from forged media to chrome media.
As per management, there is huge opportunity in the mining space from copper,
iron ore, etc and is positive on volume growth in the long term. The management
has guided for 30k-40k tonne per annum increase in volume in FY23 and FY24
and intends to fully utilize capacity in the next 3 years.
We believe an improving product mix on the back of capacity expansion
(Grinding Media and Mill liners), low penetration in underlying business,
improved pace of new customer conversion post-vaccination drive &
underutilized capacity will likely to drive healthy revenue & PAT growth over
FY22-FY24E.

Capex Plans
AIA is setting up a 50,000 tonne mill linings unit at a capex of Rs200 cr. The
commissioning of the unit is expected by June’22. Post this expansion, total
installed capacity will be 4.4 lakh tonne per annum. AIA target Rs300 cr capex
in FY23 which includes Mill Lining Project, Grinding Media Expansion Project
and Hybrid Power Project of 6.30 MW wind power and 5.67 MW of solar power
in addition to general capex. The company has decided to go ahead with its
brownfield capacity expansion of grinding media. It plans to add 80,000 tonne
of capacity at an estimated capex of Rs 200 cr and commissioning by FY24.

1-Year Forward PE

35.0
Series8 Avg Fwd PE

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0
May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 May-21 May-22

Source: Capitaline, Kotak Securities - Private Client Group

Company Background
AIA Engineering (AIA), established in 1979, is India’s major manufacturer and
supplier of corrosion and abrasion resistant high chrome mill internals (HCMIs),
which are used as wear parts in crushing (or grinding) operations in cement,
mining, and thermal power plants (or mills). AIA’s product portfolio includes
tube mill internals (such as grinding media, shell liners and diaphragm), HRCS
castings and crusher parts for cement, mining, and thermal power plants. The
company caters to HCMI demand of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)
and replacement market, with the latter accounting for over 80% of volume sales
in the cement sector. AIA supplies mill internals in the international markets
through its wholly owned marketing subsidiary, Vega Industries Ltd, which has
offices in the US, the UK, Canada, Philippines, Australia, and the Middle East.
(Source: Company)

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MAY 30, 2022

Financials: Consolidated
Profit and Loss Statement (Rs cr) Balance sheet (Rs cr)
(Year-end Mar) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E (Year-end Mar) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Revenues 2,819 3,514 4,292 4,803 Fixed assets (incl CWIP) 949 978 1,188 1,253
% change YoY (2.5) 24.7 22.1 11.9 Intangibles 23 23 23 23
EBITDA 655.2 720.9 888.5 1,008.6 LT investments 257 0 0 0
% change YoY (3.7) 10.0 23.2 13.5 Loans and Adv & others 186 532 532 532
Other income 172.2 156.3 180.0 200.0 Inventory 755 1,226 1,352 1,316
Depreciation 93.5 92.1 119.2 134.6 Current investments 551 1,055 1,055 1,055
EBIT 733.9 785.1 949.3 1,074.0 Debtors 641 806 964 1,079
% change YoY 1.3 7.0 20.9 13.1 Cash and bank balances 1,395 506 734 1,346
Net interest 4.3 3.9 1.6 0.6 Deferred tax asset (net) 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax 729.6 781.3 947.6 1,073.3 Total Assets 4,758 5,126 5,849 6,604
% change YoY 1.5 7.1 21.3 13.3 Equity 19 19 19 19
Tax 163.9 161.7 213.2 241.5 Reserves 4,225 4,736 5,386 6,133
as % of PBT 22.5 20.7 22.5 22.5 Minority interest 9 8 8 8
Profit after tax 565.7 619.6 734.4 831.8 Debt 184 3 33 13
Exceptional item - - - - Deferred tax liability 47 39 39 39
Net income 565.7 619.6 734.4 831.8 Other non-current liabilities 39 46 46 46
% change YoY (4.2) 9.5 18.5 13.3 Trade payables 166 197 240 269
Shares outstanding (cr) 9 9 9 9 Other current liabilities 69 78 78 78
EPS (reported) (Rs.) 60.0 65.7 77.9 88.2 Total liabilities 4,758 5,126 5,849 6,604
CEPS (Rs.) 69.9 75.5 90.5 102.5 BVPS (Rs) 450 504 573 652
Source: Company, Kotak Securities – Private Client Group Source: Company, Kotak Securities – Private Client Group

Cash flow Statement (Rs cr) Ratio Analysis


(Year-end Mar) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E (Year-end Mar) FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
PBT 730 781 948 1,073 EBITDA margin (%) 23.2 20.5 20.7 21.0
Adjustments (68) (63) (59) (65)
Changes in WC 68 (950) (242) (50) EBIT Margin (%) 26.0 22.3 22.1 22.4
Tax paid (164) (162) (213) (241) Net profit margin (%) 20.1 17.6 17.1 17.3
CF from operating activity 566 (394) 434 718
Receivables (days) 83.0 83.7 82.0 82.0
Capex (incl changes in CWIP) (124) (120) (330) (200) Inventory (days) 97.7 127.3 115.0 100.0
(Inc)/dec in investments 610 (247) - - Payables (days) 21 20 20 20
Interest income 172 156 180 200 Interest coverage (x) 170.8 203.9 576.9 1,663.8
Other investing (953) 685 - -
CF from investing activities (295) 475 (150) - Debt/Equity ratio (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ROE (%) 13.3 13.0 13.6 13.5
Inc/(dec) in equity 62 (24) - - ROCE (%) 16.6 16.5 17.5 17.4
Inc/(dec) in borrowings 70 (173) 30 (20)
Finance cost (4) (4) (2) (1) EV/Sales (x) 6.3 5.1 4.1 3.6
Dividends paid and other financing (85) (85) (85) (85) EV/EBITDA (x) 27.1 24.9 20.0 17.0
CF from financing activities 43 (286) (56) (106) Price to earnings (x) 34.5 31.5 26.6 23.5
Price to book value (x) 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.2
Total change in cash 314 (205) 228 612 Source: Company, Kotak Securities – Private Client Group
Cash - Beginning of the period 149 462 257 484
Bank balance 933 249 249 249
Cash - end of the period 1,395 506 734 1,346
Source: Company, Kotak Securities – Private Client Group

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MAY 30, 2022

RATING SCALE (PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP)


Definitions of ratings
BUY – We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months
ADD – We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 15% returns over the next 12 months
REDUCE – We expect the stock to deliver -5% - +5% returns over the next 12 months
SELL – We expect the stock to deliver < -5% returns over the next 12 months
NR – Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock.
The report has been prepared for information purposes only.
SUBSCRIBE – We advise investor to subscribe to the IPO.
RS – Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target
for this stock, either because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or
there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or
target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this
stock and should not be relied upon.
NA – Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not
applicable
NM – Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
NOTE – Our target prices are with a 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our
internal benchmark.
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH TEAM (PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP)
Shrikant Chouhan Arun Agarwal Amit Agarwal, CFA Hemali Dhame
Head of Research Auto & Auto Ancillary Transportation, Paints, FMCG Banking & Finance
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
+91 22 6218 5408 +91 22 6218 6443 +91 22 6218 6439 +91 22 6218 6433

Jatin Damania Purvi Shah Rini Mehta K. Kathirvelu


Metals & Mining, Midcap Pharmaceuticals Research Associate Support Executive
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
+91 22 6218 6440 +91 22 6218 6432 +91 22 6218 6433 +91 22 6218 6427

Sumit Pokharna Pankaj Kumar


Oil and Gas, Information Tech Construction, Capital Goods & Midcaps
[email protected] [email protected]
+91 22 6218 6438 +91 22 6218 6434

TECHNICAL RESEARCH TEAM (PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP)


Shrikant Chouhan Amol Athawale Sayed Haider
[email protected] [email protected] Research Associate
+91 22 6218 5408 +91 20 6620 3350 [email protected]
+91 22 62185498

DERIVATIVES RESEARCH TEAM (PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP)


Sahaj Agrawal Prashanth Lalu Prasenjit Biswas, CMT, CFTe
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
+91 79 6607 2231 +91 22 6218 5497 +91 33 6615 6273

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Disclosure/Disclaimer (Private Client Group)


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Research Analyst or his/her relatives has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication
of Research Report: No.
Kotak Securities Limited has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research
Report: No
By referring to any particular sector, Kotak Securities Limited does not provide any promise or assurance of favourable view for a particular industry or sector or business group in any manner.
The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and take professional advice before investing. Such
representations are not indicative of future results.
Subject company(ies) may have been client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
"A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at https://www.nseindia.com/ChartApp/install/charts/mainpage.jsp
and http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes. (Choose a company from the list on the browser and select the "three years" icon in the price chart)."
Kotak Securities Limited. Registered Office: 27 BKC, C 27, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai 400051. CIN: U99999MH1994PLC134051, Telephone No.: +22 43360000, Fax No.:
+22 67132430. Website: www.kotak.com/www.kotaksecurities.com. Correspondence Address: Infinity IT Park, Bldg. No 21, Opp. Film City Road, A K Vaidya Marg, Malad (East), Mumbai 400097.
Telephone No: 42856825. SEBI Registration No: INZ000200137 (Member ID: NSE-08081; BSE-673; MSE-1024; MCX-56285; NCDEX-1262), AMFI ARN 0164, PMS INP000000258 and Research
Analyst INH000000586. NSDL/CDSL: IN-DP-629-2021. Our research should not be considered as an advertisement or advice, professional or otherwise. The investor is requested to take into
consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and the like and take professional advice before investing. Investments in securities market are
subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Derivatives are a sophisticated investment device. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the
risk factors before actually trading in derivative contracts. Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Sanjayu Nair. Call: 022 - 4285 8484, or Email: [email protected].
In case you require any clarification or have any concern, kindly write to us at below email ids:
• Level 1: For Trading related queries, contact our customer service at '[email protected]' and for demat account related queries contact us at [email protected] or call us on: Toll free numbers
18002099191 / 1860 266 9191
• Level 2: If you do not receive a satisfactory response at Level 1 within 3 working days, you may write to us at [email protected] or call us on 022-42858445 and if you feel you are still
unheard, write to our customer service HOD at [email protected] or call us on 022-42858208.
• Level 3: If you still have not received a satisfactory response at Level 2 within 3 working days, you may contact our Compliance Officer (Mr. Sanjayu Nair) at [email protected] or call
on 91- (022) 4285 8484.
• Level 4: If you have not received a satisfactory response at Level 3 within 7 working days, you may also approach Managing Director / CEO (Mr. Jaideep Hansraj) at [email protected] or call
on 91-(022) 4285 8301.

Kotak Securities – Private Client Group Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 7

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