NSE India

EVENT UPDATE
A superb run
UNLISTED

7 November 2022 BSE Sensex: 61185

 Q2FY23 result highlights

 Derivatives volumes (notional) grow by 2.2x in Q2FY23: Derivatives volumes growth of 1.2x yoy was largely led by

options volumes. Options (notional) ADV increased 2.2x yoy to Rs.130trn in Q2FY23, while the futures ADV
increased 9% yoy to Rs.1.3trn.
 Options growth is largely led by index options: Index option premium ADV has increased to Rs.417bn, up 2.5x yoy
(vs Rs.170bn yoy) while the stock option premium ADDV has remained flat yoy at Rs.43bn. Thus all volume growth
is largely led by the spike index options volume.
 Equity remains muted at Rs.525bn in Q2FY23: Cash transaction ADV has decreased 19% yoy to Rs.525bn in
Q2FY23 vs. Rs.640bn in Q2FY22.
 Number of clients increased to 110m (3x from Mar-20): Unique clients trading of NSE has increased to 110m as on
Sept-22. It’s a 3x growth compared to Mar-20.
 Profit grew by 62% yoy: Revenue increased 64% yoy to Rs.32bn in Q2FY23; EBITDA increased 80% yoy to Rs.24bn
(vs Rs.14bn yoy). EBITDA margin increased 700bps tot to 77.3% (vs. 70.3% in Q2FY22). As a result Pat increased to
Rs.18bn (vs Rs.11bn yoy)
 New product launches: NSE is expected to launch new products like intra-week options expiry (Tuesday), bond index
futures, electricity futures, etc. on its platform.
 Expect resolution of ban on clearing banks: European regulators have announced a ban on European banks from
using services of the domestic clearing corporations from April -23. NSE expects the dispute to be resolved and
hence, unlikely to have any impact on trading volumes. .
Key positives: Strong surge in options volumes

Key Negatives: Delay in resolution of co-location cases; delay in IPO

 Valuations & view

NSE is the dominant player in equity and equity derivatives markets. It enjoys near monopoly status with >90% market
share in equity and 100% market share in derivatives markets. It has benefitted from a strong surge in derivatives
trading in last 6 quarters. As a result, earning has grown at a CAGR of 76% between FY20-FY22. Also, the earning has
grown by 62% in H1FY23. We are baking in EPS of Rs137 and Rs158 per share in FY23E and FY24E. At a price of
Rs3800 (Last transaction price as per media report), the stock is trading at 24xFY24E.

Key valuation metrics

Year to 31 Mar FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Net sales (Rs m) 33,014 56,243 89,295 1,10,850 1,26,545
Adj. net profit (Rs m) 16,278 36,001 50,171 68,100 78,381
Shares in issue (m) 495 495 495 495 495
Adj. EPS (Rs) 32.9 72.7 101.4 137.6 158.3
% change 15.3 121.2 39.4 35.7 15.1
PE (x)* 115.6 52.2 37.5 27.6 24.0
Price/ Book (x)* 21.8 16.2 12.2 8.4 6.3
EV/ EBITDA (x)* 85.2 42.2 26.4 18.6 15.6
RoE (%) 19.8 35.5 37.1 35.9 30.0
RoCE (%) 16.1 28.0 34.4 36.3 31.7
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research; *Last transaction price

Mohit Kumar, CFA Nikhil Abhyankar

[email protected] [email protected]
+91 22 42022573 91-22-4202 2567

For Private Circulation only “Important disclosures appear at the back of this report”
 NSE India

Exhibit 1: Consolidated financial statement summary

Rsm Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23
Net sales 19,290 23,672 28,451 89,295 28,099 31,575
- Transaction Fees 16,421 20,120 24,879 77,087 24,743 27,500
- Subscription Fees 2,868 3,551 3,572 12,208 3,356 4,075
EBIDTA 13,590 17,306 20,371 64,993 21,522 24,392
OPM (%) 70.5 73.1 71.6 72.8 76.6 77.3
Other income 1,533.8 1,224.7 1,612.0 5,701.6 1,109.1 2,144.0
Interest - - - - - -
Dep & Amort 727 802 1,188 3,384 990 1,054
PBT 14,397 17,729 20,795 67,311 21,641 25,483
PAT 10,730 13,263 15,462 50,171 16,718 17,554
Reported PAT 10,950 13,490 15,803 51,983 16,891 17,739
EPS 21.7 26.8 31.2 103.2 33.8 35.5
Key Operating Metrics
Cash volume (Rstrn) 41 42 38 166 35 33
Derivatives Volume (Rsbn) 3,777 4,604 5,805 16,952 6,597 8,315
Options premium (Rs.trn) 13 18 25 69 25 29
Segmental EBIT break up
Trading Services 12512.0 16075.2 19248.5 60567.7 20301.8 22929.1
Clearing Services 211.8 410.9 223.9 1097.7 192.0 242.8
Data feed Services 448.0 260.4 338.7 1382.2 358.3 399.3
Index Licensing Services 248.8 262.3 300.6 1047.8 325.8 362.5
Key Balance Sheet Numbers
Reported PAT 1,66,187 - 1,96,734 1,96,734 - 2,13,090
Cash and Investments 2,27,436 - 2,42,644 2,42,644 - 2,93,780
Source: DAM Capital Research

Exhibit 2: NSE corporate structure

Source: DAM Capital Research

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 NSE India

Exhibit 3: Yearly cash and derivatives volume trend on NSE

Cash volume (Rs.trn) F&O Volume (Rs.trn)
16,952
180 166 18,000
154 14,911

135 13,500

90 85
90 79 9,000
72 6,436 6,544 68
51
43 42 3,454
45 28 27 28 2,376 4,500
944 1,650
313 315 382 556 648
0 0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 H1-FY22 H1-FY23
Source: DAM Capital Research

Exhibit 4: Quarterly NSE volumes data

Cash volume (Rs.trn) F&O Volume (Rs.trn)

50 45 45 10,000
41 42 8,315
39 38 38
40 6,597 8,000
33 33
5,805
35
30 4,604 6,000
3,777
20 2,511 2,767 4,000
1,794
1,308
10 822 2,000

0 0
Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23
Source: DAM Capital Research

Exhibit 5: Yearly futures and options notional volumes trend

Futures volumes (Rs.trn) Options Volume (Notional Rs.trn)

360 16,658 18,000
14,763
271
270 295 13,500
217 216
204

180 155 149 9,000

124 124 6,165 138

77 80 3,238 6,406
90 68 4,500
2,159
1,446
237 248 302 432 524 789

0 0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 H1-FY22 H1-FY23
Source: DAM Capital Research

Exhibit 6: Quarterly futures and options notional volume trend

Futures volumes (Rs.trn) Options Volume (Notional Rs.trn)

90 80 9,000
77 80
74 75 8,240
75 67 68 70 68 7,500
56 6,523
60 5,725 6,000

45 4,527 4,500
3,709
30 2,697 3,000
2,432
15 1,726 1,500
1,241
766
0 0
Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23
Source: DAM Capital Research

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 NSE India

Exhibit 7: Quarterly options premium trend

Options Volume (Notional Rs.trn) Options Volume (Prem - Rs.trn)

10,000 35.0
29
8,000 25 25 28.0
8,240
6,000 18 21.0
6,523
13 5,725
12 12
4,000 4,527 14.0
8
5 7 3,709
2,000 2,697 7.0
2,432
766 1,241 1,726
0 0.0
Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23
Source: DAM Capital Research

Exhibit 8: Derivatives volume spike is led by sure in index volumes.

Stock options premium (Rs.trn) Index options premium (Rs.trn)

3.6 26.3 30.0

22.9 23.1
2.7 22.5

15.1
1.8 15.0
9.9 9.7 10.7

6.6
0.9 4.6 5.2 7.5

0.9 1.4 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.7
0.0 0.0
Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23
Source: DAM Capital Research

Exhibit 9: Shareholding pattern as of Sept-22

Category Stake (%)
Public share holding 55.67
Domestic institutions 11.65
Foreign institutions 29.77
Individuals 9.94
Corporate bodies 3.77
Other 0.54
Non-promoter Non-public shareholding 44.33
Corporates 10.98
Financial institutes 4.57
FDI 8.25
FPI 5
Insurance companies 12.35
VC funds 1.44
Others 1.74
Source: DAM Capital Research

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 NSE India

Con-call highlights
 New products: NSE expects to introduce Gold receipts, bond index futures, electricity futures, weekly option
products etc. over next few years

 IEPF: As per regulation, NSE is expected to maintain Rs15bn. The exchange is supposed to invest in IEPF
whenever there is a shortfall in IEPF. As of no, there is no need to create any other provisions during FY23E

 Core SGF: Total core SGF is Rs42bn. It affects clearing operations and its profits

 NSDL IPO: NSE hold currently 24% in NSDL, the second largest depository. NSE is required to bring the
shareholding from 23-24% to 15%. As per media reports, NSDL is looking to list through IPO. Note that NSDL profit
for FY22 was Rs1.9bn and Rs1.1bn in H1FY23

 NSE IPO: It is likely to take some time in light of recent events and concerns that have been expressed by the
regulator as well surrounding various governance issues that have cropped up

 Transaction charges: 75% is from equity derivatives, 20% from equity markets and 5% from currency markets

 European restriction on NSE clearing: NSE expects the issue to be resolved soon and it expects no impact of this
on the trading volumes. It is about the regulatory arrangements.

 New CEO: Shareholders approved the appointment of Chauhan, who was the MD and CEO of BSE. He assumed
charge as NSE chief on July 26.

 Non-core business: Talent management and cloud are not core to our business. This will be sold in due course of
time

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 NSE India

Income statement Key ratios

Year to 31 Mar (Rs m) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E Year to 31 Mar FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Net sales 33,014 56,243 89,295 1,10,850 1,26,545 EBITDA margin (%) 62.4 73.6 72.8 79.9 79.8
% growth 9.7 70.4 58.8 24.1 14.2 EBIT margin (%) 56.9 69.6 69.0 77.5 77.6
Operating expenses 12,420 14,841 24,302 22,261 25,611 PAT margin (%) 49.3 64.0 56.2 61.4 61.9
EBITDA 20,594 41,401 64,993 88,589 1,00,934 RoE (%) 19.8 35.5 37.1 35.9 30.0
% change 6.4 101.0 57.0 36.3 13.9 RoCE (%) 16.1 28.0 34.4 36.3 31.7
Other income 3,896 5,775 5,702 4,853 6,323 Gearing (x) (1.5) (1.2) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1)
Net interest cost 0 0 0 0 0 Net debt/ EBITDA (x) (6.1) (3.3) (2.5) (2.7) (3.1)
Depreciation 1,808 2,260 3,384 2,643 2,749 FCF yield (%) 1.8 2.6 4.1 3.9 4.4
Pre-tax profit 22,682 44,916 67,311 90,800 1,04,508 Dividend yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Deferred tax (234) (102) 124 0 0
Current tax 6,639 9,018 17,016 22,700 26,127 Valuations
Profit after tax 16,278 36,001 50,171 68,100 78,381 Year to 31 Mar FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Preference dividend 0 0 0 0 0 Reported EPS (Rs) 32.9 72.7 101.4 137.6 158.3
Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 Adj. EPS (Rs) 32.9 72.7 101.4 137.6 158.3
Adjusted net profit 16,278 36,001 50,171 68,100 78,381 PE (x) 115.6 52.2 37.5 27.6 24.0
Non-recurring items 0 0 0 0 0 Price/ Book (x) 21.8 16.2 12.2 8.4 6.3
Reported net profit 16,278 36,001 50,171 68,100 78,381 EV/ Net sales (x) 53.2 31.1 19.2 14.9 12.4
% change 15.3 121.2 39.4 35.7 15.1 EV/ EBITDA (x) 85.2 42.2 26.4 18.6 15.6
EV/ CE (x) 14.3 11.1 8.5 6.1 4.5
Balance sheet
As on 31 Mar (Rs m) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E Shareholding pattern
Paid-up capital 495 495 495 495 495
Preference capital 0 0 0 0 0
Reserves & surplus 85,718 1,15,864 1,53,609 2,17,623 2,91,301
Shareholders' equity 86,221 1,16,371 1,54,387 2,24,700 2,98,378
Total current liabilities 1,18,585 1,35,329 1,54,436 1,54,436 1,54,436
Total debt 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred tax liabilities 1,523 1,183 1,379 0 0
Other non-current
35,375 39,174 45,868 46,741 49,781
liabilities
Total liabilities 1,55,482 1,75,685 2,01,683 2,01,177 2,04,217
Total equity &
2,41,703 2,92,056 3,56,071 4,25,877 5,02,595
liabilities
Net fixed assets 8,422 9,590 13,773 10,079 8,331
Investments 65,211 98,291 1,34,210 1,34,210 1,34,210
Cash 1,25,384 1,34,576 1,63,227 2,36,726 3,15,193
Other current assets 20,495 17,471 21,242 21,242 21,242
Deferred tax assets 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current
22,192 32,129 23,619 23,619 23,619
assets As of Sep-22
Net working capital 27,294 16,718 30,034 1,03,532 1,81,999
Total assets 2,41,703 2,92,056 3,56,071 4,25,877 5,02,594

Cash flow
Year to 31 Mar (Rs m) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Pre-tax profit 22,682 44,916 67,311 90,800 1,04,508
Depreciation 1,808 2,260 3,384 2,643 2,749
Chg in Working capital 14,395 12,504 23,996 0 0
Total tax paid (6,639) (9,018) (17,016) (22,700) (26,127)
Net Interest 0 0 0 0 0
Others 4,451 3,799 6,695 873 3,040
Operating cash flow 36,697 54,461 84,369 71,615 84,169
Capital expenditure (2,899) (6,101) (7,716) 1,051 (1,000)
Free cash flow (a+b) 33,798 48,360 76,652 72,666 83,169
Chg in investments 3,909 (33,081) (35,918) 0 0
Debt raised/(repaid) 0 0 0 0 0
Net interest 0 0 0 0 0
Capital raised/(repaid) 0 0 0 0 0
Dividend (incl. tax) (1,774) (1,366) (2,956) (4,086) (4,703)
Other items (5,964) (4,726) (9,398) (1,380) 0
Net chg in cash 29,977 9,192 28,652 73,499 78,466

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 NSE India

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Contd…

7 | DAM CAPITAL 7 November 2022

 NSE India

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Explanation of Ratings:
*Research Entity (RE) has adopted a new rating system which provides for stock ratings on the basis of absolute projected returns. The RE was earlier
following a rating system of defining stock rating on the basis of change relative to the projected index returns.

New Rating System Old Rating System

Investment Ratings Expected returns (over 12-month) Investment Ratings Expected returns (over 12-month)
Buy > =10% Outperformer More than 5% to Index
Sell < -5% Underperformer Within 0-5% (upside or downside) to Index
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Stock Broker
NSE Capital Markets
NSE Futures & Options
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