THE OCEAN’S ROLE

IN CLIMATE AND
THE THREAT FROM
THE SEA

Dr Christelle Not
[email protected]
 Weather vs Climate

Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere

Climate describes the long-term character of all weather variations -- the ‘expected’ weather

Climate ≈ average of weather

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate_by_any_other_name.html
 WEATHER AND CLIMATE ARE DRIVEN BY THE
EARTH’S ENERGY AND WATER CYCLES

•The sun transfers energy to the earth (warming)

•The earth transfers energy to outer space (cooling)
•The heating and cooling is unevenly distributed over the Earth’s surface
•Atmospheric motions (weather) and ocean circulation result from this
uneven heating and cooling
 What controls the
-50˚C temperature on
+30˚C

Earth?

Ruddiman, 2008
 SO, BASICALLY 3 THINGS CONTROL CLIMATE:

1. The Sun: delivers energy to the Earth

2. The Albedo: controls whether that energy is absorbed or
reflected
3. The Atmospheric Composition: controls how much of the
IR energy is kept by the Earth, or leaked back into space
 THE SUN

WHAT INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF

SOLAR ENERGY WE GET ON EARTH?
 Short term changes in solar output?

Solar Activity – Sun spots and Coronal Mass Ejections(CMEs)

 Incoming Energy – Solar variability

• Low solar activity (Maunder Minimum) may have changed the

atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere from the 1400s to
the 1700s triggering the "Little Ice Age" in several regions including
North America and Europe.
• Changes in the Sun's energy was one of the biggest factors
influencing climate change during this period – pre-industrial era!
 Named after the Serbian mathematician Milutin
Milankovitch who first computed the cycles

Lived from 1879-1958

Consist of three astronomical cycles of the earth:

1. Eccentricity of Earth’s orbit

2. Axial tilt of the earth (Obliquity)
3. Precession of the equinoxes
Incoming Energy – orbital variability
1. Eccentricity of Earth’s orbit

Changes total solar flux (energy) by 0.2%

Incoming Energy – orbital variability
2. Axial tilt of the earth (Obliquity)

Cycle - 41,000 yrs

More tilt - more sun in summer - less in winter
Incoming Energy – orbital variability
3. Precession of the equinoxes
Cycle - 23,000 yrs
Due to wobble of the axis
Impact due to elliptical nature of orbit
 MILANKOVITCH CYCLES – HOW DO THEY
AFFECT CLIMATE?
•They determine the amount of solar insolation that reaches the latitudes of the Earth
at a given time of year
•Insolation = Solar radiation that strikes the Earth (W/m2) ~ 1369 ± 0.2% W/m2
•Since ~ 3 million years ago, the cycles have been correlated to the advance and
retreat of glaciers and sea level during and between ice ages
Milankovitch Cycles:1 million years worth!

Solar Flux
Varying incoming energy input with latitude…
1) Powered by sunlight
2) Responsible for heat transport
Convection currents

H2O(g)

H2O(g)
GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION

A hypothetical model of Earth’s air

circulation if uneven solar heating
were the only factor to be considered.
GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION

Uneven solar heating

and
Earth’s rotation
(= Coriolis accelaration)
CORIOLIS ACCELERATION
Eastward rotation of Earth on its axis deflects the moving air, water (or any moving
object that has mass) away from its initial course
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt_XJp77-mk
CORIOLIS ACCELERATION

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2mec3vgeaI
Coriolis acceleration
GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
EARTH’S UNEVEN SOLAR HEATING RESULTS IN LARGE-
SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
THE EARTH’S MAJOR CLIMATE ZONES

Earth’s climate into zones

- Differences in average temperature and precipitation
- Tropical
- Temperate
- Polar
- Heat and moisture distributed unevenly
- Gradient causes movement
- Currents
- Winds
SURFACE CURRENTS

• The water flowing beneath the wind

forms a surface current

• Surface currents move water above

the pycnocline
 Ekman spiral model

When driven by wind the top most layer of the

ocean water flows at about 45º of the wind
direction

The layer of water below moves at an angle of

the overlying water

The same thing happens in the layer below that,

and the next layer
In nature, Ekman transport
in gyres is less than 90º,
and in most cases is
around 45º
 North Atlantic gyre

North Atlantic gyre subdivide into

four interconnected currents
because each has distinct flow
characteristics and temperature
Figure 13-2 p351
 THE ALBEDO

THE ALBEDO: CONTROLS WHETHER THAT

ENERGY IS ABSORBED OR REFLECTED
• Albedo is a surfaces ability to
RELFECT energy, therefore,
conversely a measure of it’s
ability to absorb energy.
How does this Energy Budget
apply to the
• How does this apply to the climate?
climate? – Liquid water has a far lower albedo than frozen
water (a spectra thing!). In fact they are ‘polar’
opposites!!!
Liquid ≈ 90% absorbed; Ice ≈ 90% reflected
– Open ocean will absorb more energy than land
surfaces, so holds more heat & cools down
slower…
– Polar Ice (in fact, Icecaps of any kind) will reflect
almost all incoming energy.
 WATER HEAT CAPACITY

• A phenomenal temperature buffer

- Very high heat capacity

• Can absorb or release large amounts of heat with no change in temperature

• Example of sand and its low heat capacity

HEAT TRANSFER - OCEANS
 ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CHANGING ATMOSPHERIC GAS

CONTENT…WHERE IS THE CARBON STORED?
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
 THE ATMOSPHERE

Composition of air
­ Gases
­ permanent and variable
­ Suspended microscopic particles
­ Water droplets
Temperature, water vapor, and altitude
control density of air
Atmospheric pressure
­ Weight of overlying column of air
 sun Heating = Heat Dissipation visible
Surface temperature ≈ -18 oC
infra-red

Earth
Condition for no greenhouse gas in the atmosphere
the Greenhouse Effect…

visible
Average Global infra-red
Temperature about 15℃

partly absorbed

re-emitted
infra-red

Earth greenhouse
gases

46
a gas that
contributes to the
greenhouse effect
by absorbing
infrared
radiation.
GREENHOUSE GASES EVOLUTION
CH4 1850ppb

CO2 400ppm
STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN CO2
AND TEMPERATURE
Enhance greenhouse effect Rising temperature

Thermal expansion of sea water

& melting of snow on land Sea level rise

Regional differences in
Enhance the water cycle precipitation

Change in atmospheric circulation Increase in occurrence of

and chemical composition extreme weather and
climate events
+0.4% Atmospheric CO2 each year

90% of the excess heating is stored in the ocean

 0 0

1,000
The 4,000

WARMER
2,000 O2 CO2
the ocean
Depth (m)

Depth (ft)
8,000
gets, the
LESS can 3,000

be CO2 12,000
absorbed 4,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 O2
!!!
44 46 48 50 52 CO2
Concentration of dissolved gas in
milliliters per liter (ml/l)
Ý Major sources of carbon dioxide are respiration & decay.
Ý Major sinks are photosynthesis & construction of carbonate shells.
 MELTING PERMAFROST

Permafrost has large amounts of

methane trapped
- Melting can release it
- Much more potent than CO2
- Shorter lived in atmosphere
Enhance greenhouse effect Rising temperature

Thermal expansion of sea water

& melting of snow on land Sea level rise

Regional differences in
Enhance the water cycle precipitation

Change in atmospheric circulation Increase in occurrence of

and chemical composition extreme weather and
climate events
MELTING ICE
Warming has major effect in polar regions
- Twice as fast as world average
- Heat transferred toward poles
- Sea ice melting
- Greenland ice sheet melting
- Increase in sea level
CLIMATE AND CIRCULATION
RISING SEA LEVELS
Glaciers melting rises sea level

Warming water expands, occupies larger volume

- Sea level may rise 3-6.5 ft this century
- Keep rising for additional time
- Coastal ecosystems flood
- Many people live in threatened areas
SEA LEVEL RISE

(Source: Wunderground)
TUVALU!
Temperature rise greater than
2°C = BIG problems!!!!
Sea Level
Texas: Gulf Coast ( Source : US Geological Survey)

Bangladesh: Ganges Delta ( Source : National Geographic)

Enhance greenhouse effect Rising temperature

Thermal expansion of sea water

& melting of snow on land Sea level rise

Regional differences in
Enhance the water cycle precipitation

Change in atmospheric circulation Increase in occurrence of

and chemical composition extreme weather and
climate events
 Ocean and weather

• Distribution of heat by wind, atmospheric circulation (2/3), oceanic surface circulation

• Combination of water flow and heat transfer from atmosphere to water
Higher temperatures can enhance the water cycle →
mean global precipitation to increase. Precipitation
here includes rain and snow.
sun cloud
condensation
precipitation

evaporation
transpiration evaporation
runoff

Water cycle
land sea
Image: NewsInternational 27th Oct

Image: Ibtimes.com 25th Oct

BANGKOK 2011

Image: unepscs.org
Henan & Anhui Province Feb 2008
 CYCLONE, HURRICANE, TYPHOON

Form on either side of the equator, but not at the equator

§Atlantic/Eastern Pacific Oceans –hurricanes
§Western Pacific – typhoons
§Indian Ocean – cyclones

Critical sea surface temperature ≈ 27°C

§Decrease in atmospheric pressure
§Increases evaporation rate
§Increased wind speeds
§Greater than 130 km/h

Energy from ocean fuels hurricanes

§Water vapor extracted from warm sea surface
§Energy released during condensation
There are six requirements for the formation of
a cyclone:

• sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures

• atmospheric instability
• high humidity in the lower to middle levels of
the troposphere
• enough Coriolis force to develop a low
pressure center
• a pre-existing low level focus or disturbance
• and low vertical wind shear.
Global tropical cyclone tracks between 1985 and 2005, indicating the areas where tropical cyclones usually develop
TYPHOON MANGKHUT
PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS:
STORM TIDES AND STORM SURGES
Increased sea level in coastal regions
­ Decreased atmospheric pressure
­ Strong onshore wind
­ Coincidence with normal high-tide

Causes damage and loss of life in shallow coastal areas

­ Hurricane Katrina generated storm surge from 3-10 m higher than normal sea level across 200 miles
of the US Gulf coast in 2005
Zheijiang Province

Philippines Sept 2009,

And (left) Typhoon Onday,
December 2011
Image: Pecier Decierdo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nEAs-0PnSw
1. Definitions of Climate Change

2. Solar Radiation Reaching Earth

Milankovitch, Solar activity & Albedo

3. Energy Distribution on Earth

Incoming at the tropics, outgoing everywhere, but largely controlled by ocean motion

4. Greenhouse Gases in the Environment

Impact on temperature and sea level

5. Link between ocean and weather

Rainfall pattern, Wind bands, Extreme event