GRMD2102 Fundamental Statistics for Geographers

Term 1, 2022-23
Homework 2: Probability Distribution and Sampling Distribution

Notes for Submission Requirements:

1. Round all calculation results to 3 decimal places, i.e. 0.001
2. A student should finish all questions independently with the necessary detailed procedures.
3. Please submit the homework as one single electric file in word or PDF file
⋅ You can type your answer immediately after each question on the question file.
⋅ If you will answer the question by handwriting, please take the clear and readable photo
of individual answer and insert the photo immediately after the corresponding question.
⋅ You also can answer the questions together by handwriting with the clear indication on
the number of the question and then take the clear and readable photo of all answers and
insert to the answer file.
4. Save the submitted single electric file with the file name as:
• HW2_<surname first full name>.docx/pdf.
• For example, HW2_KAN Zihan.pdf
5. Submit the single electric file to the course blackboard at the folder of Homework at the link
of “Submission of Homework Two” using Attach Files for submission.
6. The submission deadline: 5:00 PM on Friday of 11th November 2022

Questions for Homework Two:

1. It is found that the number of customers to a shop per hour and their probabilities are as follows.

Number Probability
0 0.02
1 0.13
2 0.28
3 0.30
4 0.15
5 0.10
6 0.02

a. Verify that this is a valid discrete probability distribution?

First, for each 𝑥, 𝑃(𝑥) ∈ (0,1);
Second, ∑ 𝑃(𝑥) = 1.
So, it is a valid discrete probability distribution.
b. Find the probability of less than 4 customers per hour 0.730
c. Find the probability of equal or greater than 3 customers per hour 0.570

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2. Eighty percent of employees in the company have lunch in the company canteen. Assume that
the number of employees who have lunch in the company canteen can be modeled by the binomial
distribution. For a group of 10 employees, what is the probability that

a. all ten will have lunch in the company canteen? 0.107

b. at least five will have lunch in the company canteen? 0.994
c. less than four will have lunch in the company canteen? 0.001
d. At most eight will have lunch in the company canteen? 0.624
e. What is the expected number of employees who have lunch in the company canteen?
8.000

3. Assume a Poisson distribution with λ= 5.0. What is the probability that

a. X = 1? 0.034
b. X < 1? 0.007
c. X > 1? 0.960
d. X ≤ 1? 0.040

4. Given a normal distribution with 𝜇= 20 and 𝜎 = 2, what is the probability that

a. X > 22? 0.159

b. X < 21? 0.691
c. X < 18 or X > 23? 0.225

5. The distance traveled per car per year is normally distributed, with a mean of 60.0 thousand miles
and a standard deviation of 12.0 thousand miles.

a. Find the probability of cars which can be expected to travel between 50.0 and 60.0
thousand miles in the year? 0.298
b. Find the probability of cars which can be expected to travel either below 40.0 or above
70.0 thousand miles in the year? 0.250
c. How many miles will be traveled by at least 80% of the cars? 49.901 k-miles

6. A study of the home pages of 500 firms’ reports that the mean number of errors per home page is
0.3 and the mean number of spelling errors per home page is 0.20. Use the Poisson distribution
to find the probability that a randomly selected home page will contain

a. exactly 0 bad links. 0.741

b. 4 or more bad links. 0.000
c. exactly 1 spelling errors. 0.164
d. 8 or more spelling errors. 0.000

7. The income of a group 10,000 persons is found to be normally distributed with the mean of $750
and the standard deviation of $50.

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 a. Find the expected number of persons in this group with income exceeding $668.
9495
b. Find the expected number of persons in this group with income exceeding $832.
505
c. Determine the income range of the middle half of persons in this group.
716.276 ~ 783.724 $
d. What is the lowest income among the richest 250 persons?
847.998 $

8. Explain why, in general, it is advisable to sample rather than to attempt a complete census of a
population.
The population is so large, and it is costly to do so.
Some cases in the population are impossible to gather data/information.
Survey is time consuming, long-term investigation may include temporal dynamics that cover the
disparity of interests.
Etc.

9. Under what circumstances does the sampling distribution of the proportion approximately follow
the normal distribution?
1. random sample
2. sample size is large enough, particularly, np>5 and n(1-p)>5

10. The engines of public buses had an average power of 220 horsepower (HP) and standard deviation
of 15 HP.

a. A bus company intends to take a sample of four engines and will not place an order if
the sample mean is less than 215 HP. What is the probability that the bus company will
not place an order?
4 sample is too small. In this case, the distribution of the sample mean is not clear, and
it is not determinative to calculate the probability.
If we would like to assume that it is normal distribution, then the probability should be
0.252.
b. If the bus company samples 100 engines, what is the probability that the sample mean
will be less than 215 HP?
In this case, the sample size is large enough to assume a normal distribution of the
sample mean, then the probability is 0.000.
c. Use the above cases to discuss the importance of the central limit theorem
The central limit theorem indicates that large sample size reduces the uncertainties in
the estimation of population mean. Accurate estimation decreases the risks to wrong
decisions.

11. Given a normal distribution with µ= 50 and σ = 5, if you select a sample of n = 100, what is the
probability that 𝑋̅ is

a. less than 47? 0.000

b. between 47 and 49.5? 0.159

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 c. above 51.1? 0.014
d. There is a 35% chance that is above what value? 50.193

12. According to a survey in a city, while most workers reported living comfortably now, many
expected a downturn in their lifestyle when they stop working due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Approximately half said they have enough money to live comfortably now and expected to do so
in the future.
a. If you select a random sample of 100 workers in the city,
what is the probability that the sample will have between 45% and 55% who say they
have enough money to live comfortably now and expect to do so in the future?
This question is about sample proportion.
Theoretically, population proportion p = 0.5.
In a case of random sample with n = 100, np = 50 > 5, and n(1-p) = 50 > 5.
We can apply the Normal approximation to assume that the sample proportion follows
normal distribution.
μP = p = 0.5
σP = sqrt(0.5*(1-0.5)/100) = 0.050
P(45% < P < 55%)
= normdist(0.55, 0.5, 0.050, TRUE) - normdist(0.45, 0.5, 0.050, TRUE)
= 0.683
A half deduction will be applied to incomplete answers without proper assumption,
parameters, and necessary equations.

b. If you select a random sample of 200 workers in the city,

what is the probability that the sample will have between 45% and 55% who say they
have enough money to live comfortably now and expect to do so in the future?
This question is also about sample proportion.
Theoretically, population proportion p = 0.5.
In a case of random sample with n = 200, np = 100 > 5, and n(1-p) = 100 > 5.
We can apply the Normal approximation to assume that the sample proportion follows
normal distribution.
μP^ = p = 0.5
σP^ = sqrt(0.5*(1-0.5)/200) = 0.035

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 P(45% < P < 55%)
= normdist(0.55, 0.5, 0.035, 1) - normdist(0.45, 0.5, 0.035, 1)
= 0.843
A half deduction will be applied to incomplete answers without proper assumption,
parameters, and necessary equations.

c. Explain the difference in the results of (a) and (b).

Larger sample size can increase the confidence in the estimation of sample proportion
and reduce the uncertainty in the estimation.
Other reasonable interpretation is also acceptable.

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