SAARC Dissemination Workshop for the Study on "SAARC

Energy Outlook 2030"

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Presentation 4: Moving towards a sustainable energy future:
Opportunities and Challenges

Presenter: CRISIL Research

Afghanistan: RE Targets vs. adoption

Country Federal RE Targets Expected Additions by 2030

Biomass: 425 KTOE, Wind: 100 MW, Solar: ~580

Afghanistan 350-450 MW by 2032
MW

Potential Exploitation

Hydro

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Afghanistan has significant potential to generate hydropower. It has river catchment area of 677,900
LOW
sq km and recoverable hydro potential of more than 23,000 MW. The vast majority of this potential
(~20,000 MW) is located in the northeast on the Amu Darya, Panj and Kokcha rivers

Solar The country has abundant solar energy. Blessed with arid terrain and with more than 300 days per LOW

year counted as sunny, there is potential to generate ~222 GW of solar power

More than 67,000 MW can be produced through wind power in the country (estimated by MEW
Wind LOW
study), with at least 12,000 MW exploitable in the Herat province, 10,000 MW in Nimruz and 1,800
MW in Farah.

Biomass As per Afghanistan Renewable Energy Policy, the country has a biomass potential of 4000 MW with
LOW
91 MW of municipal solid waste, 3090 MW agriculture waste and 840 MW animal waste. An
estimated 350 small biogas digesters have been installed in different parts of the country

2
Afghanistan: Regulatory targets and investment climate

• The National Renewable Energy Policy (ANREP) aims to mainstream renewable energy in the national energy sector
planning so deploying them in different capacities and through different projects in various parts of the Country. The Policy
sets a target for deploying 350-450 MW of REN capacity by 2032. The Policy will be implemented in two terms- TERM 1
(2015- 2020) will create and support an atmosphere and activities for the development and growth of REN sector particularly
in the PPP mode, and TERM 2 (2021-2032) will deploy REN in full commercialization mode

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• The existing official Plan (Afghanistan Power Sector Master Plan [APSMP]) for power system expansion puts a heavy focus
on RE, in the form of large-scale hydro, as a source of supply

Most of the investments in the country are through donors and institutions (the likes of ADB, USAID). Some of the projects
undertaken are as listed below:
• National Solidarity Program (NSP): Installation of small PV systems ranging from 20–40 W. According to the “Afghan Rural
Renewable Energy Strategy” ([MIN_006]), about 103 kW of capacity in total has been installed up to now. Hybrid systems of a
larger scale are under development.
• Government of New Zealand – Development of a 1 MW solar system to support an installed diesel generator in Bamyan
province
• World Bank – Afghanistan Rural Solar Electrification of the provinces Bamyan and Daikundi
• The Afghan government’s rural development ministry in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP) and USAID has been working towards development of such micro solar power plants and mini hydel plants

3
 Afghanistan: Barriers to RE Adoption

1 Costly hydro power The country has an installed hydro with cumulative capacities of only ~280 MW. However, hydropower is seasonal and capacity
factors of HPPs are below 40%. Factoring in operation and maintenance costs, power generation from hydro projects is costlier
than imported power for Afghanistan

2 Seasonality in hydel With hydro projects not having have extensive storage, they deliver most of their output during April-October, leaving the country
power supply
with a capacity shortfall during the winter months, which are also the months for peak power demand. Therefore, development of

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HPP would need to be backed up by adequate thermal power development for base load power generation and/or commitments
from neighbouring countries for sufficient imported power during times of intermittency emanating from hydro generation.

3 Lack of water sharing All of the country’s river basins are transnational and usage of water and building of dams may give rise to inter-regional water
agreement
sharing disputes. Barring Iran, Afghanistan has no water-sharing agreement with any country. This has hindered development of
large-scale hydropower in the country

4 Weak Distribution Distribution network in the country is weak and susceptible to voltage and load fluctuations. In many cases, inter-regional
systems
transmission systems are not present. They require upgradation to accommodate intermittent RE power sources. Several RE rich
regions like Nimruz do not not have any connections either with the Afghanistan network and therefore require substantial capital
investments in transmission lines and substations

5 Lack of private
participation Political instability, lack of strong government has hindered private investments in the country. The private sector has been
yearning for a more facilitating environment to boost investments. Partnerships with the international communities have helped
spark investment, however, they are dependant on foreign funds and donors which hinder fast tracked development
4
Pakistan: RE Targets vs. adoption

Country Federal RE Targets Expected RE Capacities by 2030

~18 GW of renewable capacity (except large Hydro: 12.8 GW, Solar: 3.1 GW, Wind: 3.6 GW,
Pakistan
hydro) by 2030 Biomass: 2.6 GW

Potential Exploitation

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Hydro As per WAPDA, Pakistan is estimated to have a cumulative hydropower potential of 60,000 MW. The LOW
Indus River Basin contains ~75% of the entire hydropower potential of the country

Solar Pakistan has some of the highest values of solar irradiance in the world (5.3 kWh/m²/day), with eight
LOW
to nine hours of sunshine per day, ideal climatic conditions for solar power generation. Areas of high
solar radiation include the Thar desert, south and southwestern parts of the country. The country has
an overall 1,600 GW solar power potential

Wind The theoretical potential for wind power in Pakistan estimated is about 340 GW, but this estimate LOW

does not consider technical and economic constraints. The Gharo-Keti Bandar wind corridor in
southern Pakistan has a theoretical potential of over 50 GW
Biomass LOW
The technical biomass feedstock potential is ~ 25,255 thousand tonnes/ year. An World Bank study
indicates that around 26 000 tonnes of municipal waste is produced across the country every day
(World Bank, 2016). Converting this waste into energy could generate up to 360 MW of power
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Pakistan: Regulatory targets and investment climate

• As per NEPRA State of the Industry Report 2017, the country’s targets for non conventional energy sources by 2030 are (a)
Hydro: 20.6 GW (b) 2.5 GW (c ) Wind: 1.6 GW. Apart from that, no federal renewable targets have been set

• Recently, as part of the Renewable Energy Policy 2019, the government in Pakistan plans to increase the share of renewable
energy (wind, solar, small hydro and biomass) in total power generation to 30% by 2030. This translates to ~18 GW of RE

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target by 2030. In addition, there is a target of 30% large scale hydropower (more than 50 MW). The new policy, whose
guiding principles have already been approved by The Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCoE) and is being reviewed by
different stakeholders before formal implementation

The country has been inviting multilateral funding and expertise to set up renewable energy plants in the country. A few notable
examples include:
• Introduction of Clean Energy by Solar Electricity Generation System is a special grant aid project by the Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA) under the Coolio Earth Partnership. This project includes the installation of two 178 kW
photovoltaic (PV) systems at the premises of the Planning Commission and Pakistan Engineering Council
• In southeast Pakistan, Sindh Province has initiated its’ Sindh Solar Energy program (SSEP) that will see utility-scale,
distributed and residential solar installed, including up to 400 MW of capacity in solar parks. The World Bank has committed
US$100m to the program

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Pakistan: Barriers to RE Adoption

1 Constraints on grid Renewable energy growth in the country has been concentrated in a few geographical locations. Such large
and transmission
infrastructure clusters need anticipatory grid planning and extensive infrastructure improvement, requiring dedicated 132 kV
and 220 kV substations. However, NTDC’s limited financial resources have been creating a serious challenge to
meeting the sector’s requirements. Due mainly to the limitations of public funding and the private sector’s
absence from this sector, the transmission infrastructure in Pakistan remains weak.

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2 Technical challenges Government bodies and private entities do not have experience in setting up large scale RE projects. This poses
and lack of
experience project implementation challenges

3 Lack of government Guidelines have been framed to improve investments in the RE space by devising effective and efficient
oversight
auctioning framework, setting targets. However, policy gaps remain and targets are non binding. A supporting
ecosystem can help address barriers

7
Maldives: RE Targets vs. adoption

Country Federal RE Targets Expected RE Capacities by 2030

Maldives No targets set 28 KTOE

Potential Exploitation

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Hydro There is no major hydro potential in the country NA

Solar The country has a solar potential of ~43.5 GW with the majority concentrated in the Greater Male
LOW
region

Considering only onshore wind capabilities, the country has an estimated wind potential of ~100 MW. LOW
Wind
While Greater Male has wind potential of 20 MW, islands in the Malé Atoll 5-12 km away from the
islands of Greater Malé and
have a cumulative wind potential of 80 MW

Biomass As per the SREP Report, 2-5 MW of biomass potential exists in Maldives owing to limited land mass LOW
and the low fertility of its coral soils

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Maldives: Regulatory targets and investment climate

• State Electric Company Limited (STELCO), the country’s main utility, aims of meeting 30% of daytime peak demand on each
island
• The Renewable Energy Framework (REM) plan also proposes a shift to wind, batteries and biomass to complement solar
power, while retaining existing diesel generators for reserve power. However, no specific targets have been given

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• Although there has been multilateral funding towards improving power sector and energy security in the island nation,
investments towards RE development has been small
• The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been a significant contributor to the power sector of the Maldives, extending four
loans totalling over $30 million and seven technical assistance projects totalling $1.7 million
• The World Bank has provided Maldives with support in developing its energy sector regulatory framework while ADB has
provided support on capacity building on grid codes and tariff mechanisms

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Maldives: Barriers to RE Adoption
Due to limited land availability, large scale RE plants are difficult to be set up. Despite having high biomass

Lack of adequate potential, constrained land usage hinders adoption. for biomass based power generation to take shape in
1
landmass
Maldives, large quantities of biomass may be required to be imported, possibly from other countries in South
Asia. it will be a challenging task for Maldives to import biomass and ensure long term biomass fuel contracting to
mitigate the price volatility
Land availability limits the deployment potential for established low-cost renewable energy technologies like PV

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and onshore wind

2 Technical challenges Islands beyond Greater Male have large solar and wind potential. However, setting up PV or wind installations in
those areas would require undersea electrical cables. This can be technologically challenging and financially
prohibitive

Although the government of Maldives recognises the importance of RE benefits, regulatory frameworks and

Lack of regulatory policies are not completely clear. There is a lack of policy targets for different RE technologies while tariff
3
policies
structures are missing. As a
result initial pilot projects for RE projects in the Maldives have met with mixed success

10
Nepal: RE Targets vs. adoption

Country Federal RE Targets Expected RE Capacities by 2030

No overall RE targets set, 10,000 MW of hydro Hydro: 4.3 GW, Solar: 125 MW, Wind: <10 MW,
Nepal
target by 2020 Biomass: 11.6 MTOE

Potential Exploitation

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Hydro As per UNDP assessment, the total technical potential of hydropower is 45 GW from which 42 GW is MEDIUM
economically realisable. At a capacity factor of 60 percent, those dams would generate 221,451
GWH.
LOW
Solar As per UNDP assessment, the total technical potential of solar power is 2.1 GW. At a capacity factor
of 17 percent, these solar facilities can generate 3,127 GWH.

Biomass Owing to high deforestation rates, and Over-exploitation of wood resources, the Biomass Energy HIGH
Strategy (BEST) intends to bring down biomass usage and develop sustainable methods of biomass
usage

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Nepal: Barriers to RE Adoption

1 Reports of International investment is key for renewable energy development at large scale. However, in some cases,
unfriendly
investment climate international investors complained of non-cooperation. A Korean company has been struggling to get started and
a few Norwegian companies have left the country due to unfriendly investment environment.

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2 Lack of basic power As much as 30% of the country’s population still do not have access to electricity. It is due to lack of transmission
access
infrastructure owing to high mountainous terrain. This necessitates the requirement mini and micro grids, solar
housing systems to improve access in far flung areas. In such a scenario, large-scale grid-tied RE technology is
not suitable and conducive

3 Deep-rooted hydro- Although the Alternative Energy Promotion Centre intends to make all RE based energy (solar, wind, biomass)
dominant electricity
policy mainstream, necessary subsidies and government support is not channelized adequately. Nepal continues to
expedite additional hydro projects that already has an established market.

12
 Thank You

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