Department MSc in PMAE

Course: Project Planning and Scheduling

Individual Assignment
Submitted to: Kumela (PhD)
Prepared by – Group 1 [2015 – Extension Programme -Section-1]
1. Gelan Abdurehman

February 2023
Addis Ababa
 Assignment for Project planning and scheduling (15%)

Note: Please kindly note that duplication of assignment has a serious consequence!!! The
questions are intentionally designed to avoid that.

1. What is the use value of WBS in the design of a project for implementation? Take a project that you
are familiar with as an example.

Our project title is shortage of residential house in Addis Ababa.

The objective of the project is to alleviate house shortage seen in Addis Ababa city for 10,000 people in 2033.
Here is example of WBS construction of a house for Addis Ababa resident.

Implementing the WBS in the planning process makes the task more efficient and increases the opportunities
to finish the project. There are some benefits and advantages of designing a WBS. The benefits of a WBS help
develop the organization's culture and process and not the project only. The services will be to calculate the
organization's budget quickly, determine the cost, schedule projects and by having a WBS, the organization
will see where the problem areas and flag the organization's issues. Therefore, the WBS is useful for projects
and the whole organization as well. Some benefits are that it can help the project manager predict results based
on various scenarios and organize the project details. Besides, it also increases the organization's
communication and gives the team precise tasks to correct risks, costs, and time. It also provides a better
overview of the project so the team will focus on end goals, prevent problems, and address schedule issues. A
WBS's advantages are that it offers a visual representation of all parts of a project and repeatable ways to make
useful knowledge. It also makes people on the projects responsible for different parts so that everyone knows
what to do, and this will ensure no gaps and overlap in resources or responsibility.
 2. What is the link between the three times estimates and a statistical normal curve distribution?

The normal distribution is central to statistical inference. A particular normal distribution is fully characterized
by just two parameters: the mean, μ, and the standard deviation, σ

 Most pessimistic value that yet has some small probability of happening.
 Most optimistic value that also has some small probability of happening.
 Most likely value for any single instance of the project. The most likely value is the mode of
the distribution.

It is not uncommon that the optimistic and most likely values are much closer to each other than is
the pessimistic value. Many things can go wrong that are drivers on the pessimistic estimate; usually,
there are fewer things that could go right. The normal distribution's consistent shape is useful because we
can say precise things about areas under the curve.

 68.3% of the values of a Normal distribution fall within ±1s of the mean value.
 95.4% of the values of a Normal distribution fall within ±2s of the mean value, and this figure
goes up to 99.7% for ±3s of the mean value.

3. A project has a list of tasks to be performed whose time estimates are given in the table, as follows.
Draw the network diagram.

Activity Activity name Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

1-2 A 4 6 8
1-3 B 2 3 10
1-4 C 6 8 16
2-4 D 1 2 3
3-4 E 6 7 8
3-5 F 6 7 14
4-6 G 3 5 7
4-7 H 4 11 12
5-7 I 2 4 6
6-7 J 2 9 10

2 G
6
 A D

C 4
J
H

1 E
B 7
3
5 I
F

4. For Q3, find the critical path and the probability that the project is completed in 19 days.

Activity Activity name Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Time estimate

1-2 A 4 6 8 6
1-3 B 2 3 10 4
1-4 C 6 8 16 9
2-4 D 1 2 3 2
3-4 E 6 7 8 7
3-5 F 6 7 14 8
4-6 G 3 5 7 5
4-7 H 4 11 12 10
5-7 I 2 4 6 4
6-7 J 2 9 10 8

Critical path= 1-4,4-6, 6-7 (C+G+J) with a project duration of 22 days.

What is the probability that the project is completed in 19 days?

Activity Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Time estimate variance of activity time
name
1-2 A 4 6 8 6 0.444
1-3 B 2 3 10 4 1.777
1-4 C 6 8 16 9 2.777
2-4 D 1 2 3 2 0.111
3-4 E 6 7 8 7 0.111
3-5 F 6 7 14 8 1.777
4-6 G 3 5 7 5 0.444
4-7 H 4 11 12 10 1.777
5-7 I 2 4 6 4 0.444
6-7 J 2 9 10 8 1.777
 The probability of completing the project within 19 days
P (Z< Z0)
To find Z0

We know, P (Z <Z 0) = 0.5 – Y (1.3416) (from normal tables, Y (1.3416) = 0.4099)

= 0.5 – 0.4099
= 9.01%
Thus, the probability of completing the project in 19 days is 9.01%.

5. Explain the nature and extent of planning and scheduling complexities in each of the following project
areas by selecting the one relates to your profession and justification for explaining the complexities.

 Building an irrigation dam and allied irrigation canals.

 Building an access road between two geographical points.
 Constructing a community health center.
 Setting up a meat processing plant.
 Building a storage system for an agricultural produce.

The nature and extent of planning and scheduling complexities for constructing a community health
center
The initial idea for selecting the community health center construction is I am working in the health sector for
the past 6 years in different organizations (EPHI, Hospital center, USAID HIV prevention project and
currently in USAID Global Health Supply chain program).
The main project complexities for constructing the community health center are typically by a contract,
uniqueness of the task, an estimated budget and a given construction period. defined by a contract (with a
scope, parties to the contract, a budget and a timeframe).
To evaluate the project complexity involves several steps like describing projects as a framework, defining
complexity, deducing the construct complexity, developing a method to measure complexity and determining
the value of project complexity.

There are some areas contributing to complexity for constructing the community health center like task and
operative complexities.
Task Complexity referring to the density of activities in a given spatial and temporal frame for constructing
community health center and the operative Complexity referring to the degree to which organizations of the
project are independent when defining their operations to achieve given goals. All are linking with planning
and scheduling of the project.