Chapter Two

Basic Concepts of Logic; Chapter Overview

Logic, as field of study, may be defined as the organized body of knowledge, or science that
evaluates arguments. The aim of logic is to develop a system of methods and principles that we may
use as criteria for evaluating the arguments of others and as guides in constructing arguments of our
own. Argument is a systematic combination of two or more statements, which are classified as a
premise or premises and conclusion. A premise refers to the statement, which is claimed to provide a
logical support or evidence to the main point of the argument, which is known as conclusion. A
conclusion is a statement, which is claimed to follow from the alleged evidence.

Arguments can generally be divided into deductive and inductive arguments. A deductive argument
is an argument in which the premises are claimed to support the conclusion in such a way that it is
impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false. On the other hand, an inductive
argument is an argument in which the premises are claimed to support the conclusion in such a way
that it is improbable that the premises be true and the conclusion false. The seductiveness or
inductiveness of an argument can be determined by the particular indicator word it might use, the
actual strength of the inferential relationship between its component statements, and its
argumentative form or structure.

A deductive argument can be evaluated by its validity and soundness. Likewise, an inductive
argument can be evaluated by its strength and cogency. Depending on its actually ability to
successfully maintain its inferential claim, a deductive argument can be either valid or invalid.
That is, if the premise(s) of a certain deductive argument actually support its conclusion in such a
way that it is impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false, then that particular
deductive argument is valid. If, however, its premise(s) actually support its conclusion in such a way
that it is possible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false, then that particular deductive
argument is invalid. Similarly, an inductive argument can be either strong or weak, depending on its
actually ability to successfully maintain its inferential claim. That is, if the premise(s) of a certain
inductive argument actually support its conclusion in such a way that it is improbable for the
premises to be true and the conclusion false, then that particular inductive argument is strong. If,
however, its premise(s) actually support its conclusion in such a way that it is probable for the
premises to be true and the conclusion false, then that particular inductive argument is weak.

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Furthermore, depending on its actually ability to successfully maintain its inferential claim as well as
its factual claim, a deductive argument can be either sound or unsound. That is, if a deductive
argument actually maintained its inferential claim, (i.e., if it is valid), and its factual claim, (i.e., if all
of its premises are true), then that particular deductive argument will be a sound argument.
However, if it fails to maintain either of its claims, it will be an unsound argument. Likewise,
depending on its actually ability to successfully maintain its inferential claim as well as its factual
claim, an inductive argument can be either cogent or uncogent. That is, if an inductive argument
actually maintained its inferential claim, (i.e., if it is strong), and its factual claim, (i.e., if all of its
premises are probably true), then that particular inductive argument will be a cogent argument.
However, if it fails to maintain either of its claims, it will be an uncogent argument. In this chapter,
we will discuss logic and its basic concepts, the techniques of distinguishing arguments from non-
argumentative passages, and the types of arguments.

2.1. What is Logic?

Logic can be defined in different ways. Here below are some definitions of logic:
 Logic is a science that evaluates arguments.
 Logic is the study of methods for evaluating arguments. More precisely, logic is the study of
methods for evaluating whether the premises of arguments adequately support or provide a
good evidence for the conclusions.
 Logic is a science that helps to develop the method and principles that we may use as a
criterion for evaluating the arguments of others and as a guide to construct good arguments
of our own.
 Logic is the attempt to codify the rules of rational thought. Logicians explore the structure
of arguments that preserve truth or allow the optimal extraction of knowledge from
evidence.
 Logic is one of the primary tools philosophers use in their inquiries. The precision of logic
helps them to cope with the subtlety of philosophical problems and the often misleading
nature of conversational language.

In logic, as an academic discipline, we study reasoning itself: forms of argument, general

principles and particular errors, along with methods of arguing. We see lots of mistakes in
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reasoning in daily life and logic can help us understand what is wrong or why someone is
arguing in a particular way and the study of correct reasoning. It could be also defined as the
study of methods and principles of correct reasoning or the art of correct reasoning.
.
2.1.1. The Benefit of Studying Logic
Logic sharpens and refines our natural gifts to think, reason and argue. (C. S. Layman)
We use logic in our day-to-day communications. As human beings, we all think, reason and
argue; and we all are subject to the reasoning of other people. Some of us may think well, reason
well and argue well, but some of us may not. The ability to think, reason and argue well might
partially be a matter of natural gift. However, whatever our natural gifts, they can be refined,
improved and sharpened; and the study of logic is one of the best ways to refine one‘s natural
ability to think, reason and argue. Likewise, as academicians, our arguments must be logical and
acceptable; and the tool to do so is provided by logic. In general, the following are some of the
major benefits that we can gain from the study of logic:
 It helps us to develop the skill needed to construct sound (good) and fallacy-free arguments
of one‘s own and to evaluate the arguments of others;
 It provides a fundamental defense against the prejudiced and uncivilized attitudes that
threaten the foundation of a civilized and democratic society;
 It helps us to distinguish good arguments from bad arguments;
 It helps us to understand and identify the common logical errors in reasoning;
 It helps us to understand and identify the common confusions that often happen due to
misuse of language;
 It enables us to disclose ill-conceived policies in the political sphere, to be careful of disguises,
and to distinguish the rational from irrational and the sane from the insane and so on.
The aim of logic, hence, is to develop the system of methods and principles that we may use as
criteria for evaluating the arguments of others and as guides in constructing the arguments of
our own in our day-to-day lives. Thus, by studying logic, we are able to increase our confidence
when we criticize the arguments of others and when we advance arguments of our own. In fact,
one of the goals of logic is to produce individuals who are critical, rational and reasonable
both in the sphere of public and private life. However, to be full beneficial of the worth which

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logic provides, one must thoroughly and carefully understand the basic concepts of the subject
and be able to apply them in the actual situations.

2.1.2. What is an Argument?

The word argument’ may not be a new word to all of us. For all of us encounter arguments in our
day-to-day experience.
Argument is a technical term and the chief concern of logic. Argument might have defined and
described in different ways. When we define an arguments from logical point of view, it is a
group of statements, one or more of which (the premise) are claimed to provide support for, or
reason to believe, one of the other, the (conclusion). It does not mean, for example, a mere
verbal fight, as one might have with one‘s parent, spouse, or friend. Let us examine the features
of this definition in detail.
First, an argument is a group of statements. That is, the first requirement for a passage to be
qualified as an argument is to combine two or more statements. But, what is a statement?
A statement is a declarative sentence that has a truth-value of either true or false. That is,
statement is a sentence that has truth-value. Hence, truth and falsity are the two possible truth-
values of a statement. Look the following examples:
A. Dr. Abiy Ahmed the current Prime Minister of Ethiopia.
B. Mekelle is the capital city of Tigray Region.
C. Ethiopia was colonized by Germany.

Statement (a) and (b) are true, because they describe things as they are, or assert what really is
the case. Hence, “Truth‟ is their truth-value. Whereas statement (c) is false because it asserts
what is not, and „Falsity‟ its truth-value.
N.B: Logicians used proposition and statement interchangeably. However, in strict (technical)
sense, proposition is the meaning or information content of a statement. In this chapter, the term
statement is used to refer premises and a conclusion.
However, there are sentences that are not statements, and hence should be used to construct an
argument. Examples:
A. Would you close the window? (Question)
B. Let us study together. (Proposal)
C. Right on! (Exclamation)
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 D. I suggest that you read philosophy texts. (Suggestion)
E. Give me your ID Card, Now! (Command)
In fact, sentence is a group of words or phrases that enables us to express ideas or thought
meaningfully. However, unlike statements, none of the above sentences can be either true or
false. Hence, none of them can be classified as statement. As a result, none of them can make up
an argument.
Second, the statements that make up an argument are divided into premise(s) and conclusion.
That means, the mere fact that a passage contains two or more statements cannot guarantee the
existence of an argument. Hence, an argument is a group statement, which contains at least one
premise and one and only one conclusion. This definition makes it clear that an argument may
contain more than one premise but only one conclusion.

Argument always attempts to justify a claim. The claim that the statement attempts to justify is
known as a conclusion of an argument; and the statement or statements that supposedly justify
the claim is/are known as the premises of the argument. Therefore, a premise is a statement that
set forth the reason or evidence, which is given for accepting the conclusion of an argument. It is
claimed evidence; and a conclusion is a statement, which is claimed to follow from the given
evidence (premise). In other words, the conclusion is the claim that an argument is trying to
establish.
Let us now construct arguments together.
Example-1: Example-2:
1) All Ethiopians are Africans. (Premise 1) 1) Some Africans are black. (Premise-1)
2) Tsionawit is Ethiopian. (Premise2) 2) Zelalem is an African. (Premise-2)
3) Therefore, Tsionawit is African. (Conclusion) 3) Therefore, Zelalem is black. (Conclusion)
In both arguments, the first two statements are premises, because they are claimed to provide
evidence for the third statement, whereas the third statement is a conclusion because it is claimed
to follow from the given evidences. The claim that the premises support the conclusion, (and/or
that the conclusion follow from the premises), is indicated by the word therefore. All arguments
may be placed in one of two basic groups: those in which the premises really do support the
conclusion and those in which they do not, even though they are claimed to. The former are said
to be good (well-supported) arguments, the latter bad (poorly-supported) arguments. For
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example, compare the above two examples. In the first argument, the premises really do support
the conclusion, they give good reason for believing that the conclusion is true, and therefore, the
argument is a good one. But the premises of the second argument fail to support the conclusion
adequately. Even if they may be true, they do not provide good reason to believe that the
conclusion is true. Therefore, it is bad argument, but it is still an argument. But how can we
distinguish premises from conclusion and vice versa?

Despite the purpose of logic, as the science that evaluates and analyses arguments, is to develop
methods and techniques that allow us to distinguish good arguments from bad, one of the most
important tasks in the analysis of arguments is to distinguish premises from conclusion and vice
versa. Sometimes identifying a conclusion from premises is very tough. Premises and
conclusions are difficult to identify for a number of reasons. Even though all arguments are
ideally presumed to be composed of premises and a conclusion, in reality, sometimes arguments
may contain other sentences as elements. Moreover, even though it is assumed, for the sake of
argument, that all arguments are composed of premises and conclusion, identifying conclusion
from argument is very difficult. Since it is impossible to analyze arguments without identifying a
conclusion from premises, we need techniques that can help us to identify premises from a
conclusion and vice versa.
The first technique that can be used to identify premises from a conclusion and vice versa is
looking at an indicator word. Frequently, arguments contain certain indicator words that provide
clues in identifying premises and conclusion.
Here below are some Conclusion Indicators:
Therefore, Wherefore, Accordingly, Provided that, It must be that, We may conclude, Entails
that, Hence, It shows that, Whence, Thus, Consequently, We may infer, It implies that, As a
result, So, It follows that
In argument that contains any of the conclusion indicator words, the statement that follows the
indicator word can usually be identified as the conclusion. By the process of elimination, the
other statements in the argument can be identified as premises, but only based on their logical
importance to the identified conclusion.
 Example:
 Women are mammals.
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  Zenebech is a woman.
 Therefore, Zenebech is a mammal.
Based on the above rule, the conclusion of this argument is “Zenebech is a mammal because it
follows the conclusion indicator word ―therefore, and the other two statements are premises.
If an argument does not contain a conclusion indicator, it may contain a premise indicator.
Here below are some typical Premise Indicators:
Since, As indicated by, Because, Owing to, Seeing that, Given that, As, For, In that, May be
inferred from, Inasmuch as, For the reason that….
In argument that contains any of the premise indicator words, a statement that follows the
indicator word can usually be identified as a premise. By same the process of elimination, the
other remaining single statement will be a conclusion.

Example:
You should avoid any form of cheating on exams because cheating on exams is punishable by the
Senate Legislation of the University.
Based on the above rule, the premise of this argument is “cheating on exams is punishable by the
Senate Legislation of the University because it follows the premise indicator word because, and
the other statement is a premise.
One premise indicator not included in the above list is for this reason. This indicator is special in
that it comes immediately after the premise it indicates and before the conclusion. We can say
that in the middle place between the premise and the conclusion, this indicator can be both
premise and conclusion indicator. The statement that comes before for this reason is the
premise of an argument and the statement that comes after for this reason‖ is the conclusion. One
should be careful not to confuse for this reason with for the reason that. Sometimes a single
indicator can be used to identify more than one premise. Consider the following argument:
Tsionawit is a faithful wife, for Ethiopian women are faithful wives and Tsionawit an Ethiopian.
The premise indicator “for” goes with both Ethiopian women are faithful wives and Tsionawit is
an Ethiopian”. These are the premises. By process of elimination, Tsionawit is a faithful wife‖ is
the conclusion.

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Sometimes you may an argument that contains no indicator at all: neither a conclusion indicator
word nor a premise indicator word. When this occurs, the reader/ listener must ask himself or
herself such questions as:
 What single statement is claimed (implicitly) to follow from the others?
 What is the arguer trying to prove?
 What is the main point in the passage?
The answers to these questions should point to the conclusion.
Example:
Our country should increase the quality and quantity of its military. Ethnic conflicts are
recently intensified; boarder conflicts are escalating; international terrorist activities are
increasing.
The main point of this argument is to show that the country should increase the size and quality of its
military. All the rest are given in support of the conclusion. As you can see there are no indicator words.
The following is the standard form of this argument:
Ethnic conflicts are recently intensified. (P-1)
Boarder conflicts are escalating. (P-2)
International terrorist activities are increasing. (P-3)
Thus, the country should increase the quality and quantity of its military. (C)
Passages that contain arguments sometimes contain statements that are neither premises nor
conclusion. Only statements that are actually intended to support the conclusion should be
included in the list of premises. If a statement has nothing to do with the conclusion or, for
example, simply makes a passing comment, it should not be included within the context of the
argument.
Example:
Socialized medicine is not recommended because it would result in a reduction in the overall
quality of medical care available to the average citizen. In addition, it might very well bankrupt
the federal treasury. This is the whole case against socialized medicine in a nutshell.
The conclusion of this argument is Socialized medicine is not recommended, and the two
statements following the word because are the premises. The last statement makes only a passing
comment about the argument itself and is therefore neither a premise nor a conclusion.
Inference is another concept. In the narrower sense it means the reasoning process expressed by

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the argument. And broadly it refers the argument itself. For the purpose of this course, we use
the narrower sense of the term inference or inferential link between the premises and the
conclusion of arguments.

2.2. Techniques of Recognizing Arguments

2.2.1. Recognizing Argumentative Passages
Evaluating arguments about different issues in human life like those that address, religion,
politics, ethics, sport, science, love, culture, environment, society, culture e.t.c is the central
concern of logic. Therefore, as logicians, in order to evaluate arguments easily, we need to
understand the nature of arguments and further we need to understand what argument is not,
because not all passages contain argument. Since logic deals with arguments, it is important for
students to develop the ability to identify whether passages contain an argument. In a general
way, a passage contains an argument if it purports to prove something; if it does not do so, it
does not contain an argument. But what does it mean to purport to prove something?
Two conditions must be fulfilled for a passage to purport to prove something:
1) At least one of the statements must claim to present evidence or reasons.
2) There must be a claim that the alleged evidence or reasons supports or implies something-
that is, a claim that something follows from the alleged evidence.

As we have seen earlier, the statements that claim to present the evidence or reasons are the
premises and the statement that the evidence is claimed to support or imply is the conclusion.
Hence, the first condition refers to premises as it tries to provide or claim to provide reasons or
evidences for the conclusion; and the second condition refers to a conclusion. It is not necessary
that the premises present actual evidence or true reasons nor that the premises actually do
support the conclusion. But at least the premises must claim to present evidence or reasons, and
there must be a claim that the evidence or reasons support or imply something.

The first condition expresses a factual claim, and deciding whether it is fulfilled often falls
outside the domain of logic. Thus, most of our attention will be concentrated on whether the
second condition is fulfilled. The second condition expresses what is called an inferential claim.
The inferential claim is simply the claim that the passage expresses a certain kind of reasoning
process- that something supports or implies something or that something follows from

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something. Also, you should recognize that this claim is not equitable with the intentions of the
arguer. Intentions are subjective and, as such, are usually not accessible to the evaluator. Rather,
the inferential claim is an objective feature of an argument grounded in its language or structure.
In evaluating arguments, therefore, most of our attention will be concentrated on whether the
second condition is fulfilled because it is not necessary, at least at this level, that the premises
present actual evidence or true reasons nor that do the premises actually support the conclusion.
An inferential claim can be either explicit or implicit. An explicit inferential claim is usually
asserted by premise or conclusion indicator words (thus, since, because, hence, therefore, and so
on). It exists if there is an indicator word that asserts an explicit relationship between the
premises and the conclusions.

Example: Gamachuu is my biological father, because my mother told me so.

In this example, the premise indicator word because expresses the claim that evidence supports
something, or that evidence is provided to prove something. Hence, the passage is an argument.
An implicit inferential claim exists if there is an inferential relationship between the statements
in a passage, but the passage contains no indicator words.

Example:
The genetic modification of food is risky business. Genetic engineering can introduce unintended
changes into the DNA of the food-producing organism, and these changes can be toxic to the
consumer.
The inferential relationship between the first statement and the other two constitutes an implicit
claim that evidence supports something, so we are justified in calling the passage an argument
though it does not contain indicator word. The first statement is the conclusion, and the other
two are the premises.

Sometimes it is difficult to identify whether a passage contain an argument. In deciding whether

there is a claim that evidence supports or implies something keep an eye out for (1) indicator
words, and (2) the presence of an inferential claim between the statements. In connection with
these points, however, a word of caution is in order.
First, the mere occurrence of an indicator word by no means guarantees the presence of an
argument. The presence of an indicator word does not mean that the existing indicator word
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actually and always indicate a premises or a conclusions. Thus, before deciding that an indicator
word indicates a premises or a conclusion, make sure that the existing indicator word is used to
indicate a premise or a conclusion.

Example:
Since Edison invented the phonograph, there have been many technological developments. Since
Edison invented the phonograph, he deserves credit for a major technological development. In
the first passage the word “since” is used in a temporal sense. It means from the time that. Thus,
the first passage is not an argument. In the second passage “since” is used in a logical sense, and
so the passage is an argument.

Second, it is not always easy to detect the occurrences of an inferential relationship between
statements in a passage, and the reader may have to review a passage several times before
making a decision. Therefore, in deciding whether a passage contains an argument one should try
to insert mentally some indicators words among the statements to see whether there is a flow of
ideas among the statements. Even with this mental experiment, however, deciding whether a
passage contains an argument is very difficult. As a result, not everyone will agree about every
passage. Sometimes the only answer possible is a conditional one: If this passage contains an
argument, then these are the premises and that is the conclusion. To assists in distinguishing
passages that contain arguments from those that do not, it is important to identify passages,
which do not contain arguments: Non-argumentative passages.

2.3. Recognizing Non-argumentative Passages

Having seen what arguments are and how we recognize them, we will now focus on what
arguments are not and how we recognize them. Non-argumentative passages are passages, which
lack an inferential claim. These include simple non-inferential passages, expository passages,
illustrations, explanations, and conditional statements. Passages that lack an inferential claim
may be statements, which could be premises, conclusion, or both. What is missed is a claim that
a reasoning process is being made. As was discussed previously, for a passage to be an
argument, it not only should contain premises and a conclusion but also an inferential claim or a
reasoning process. In this portion of our lesson, we will discuss some of the most important
forms of non-argumentative passages.
Simple Non-inferential Passages
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Simple non-inferential passages are unproblematic passages that lack a claim that anything is
being proved. Such passages contain statements that could be premises or conclusions (or both),
but what is missing is a claim that any potential premise supports a conclusion or that any
potential conclusion is supported by premises. Passages of this sort include warnings, pieces of
advice, statements of belief or opinion, loosely associated statements, and reports.
A. A warning is a form of expression that is intended to put someone on guard against a
dangerous or detrimental situation.
Example:
Whatever you promise to tell, never confide political secrets to your wife.
In this passage, no evidence is given to prove that the statement is true; and if no evidence is
given to prove that the statement is true, then there is no argument.

B. A piece of advice is a form of expression that makes a recommendation about some future
decision or course of conduct.
Example:
After class hours, I would suggest that you give careful consideration to the subject matter you
have discussed.
As with warnings, there is no evidence that is intended to prove anything in piece of advices,
and hence there is no argument in the above passage.
C. A statement of belief or opinion is an expression about what someone happens to believe or
think about something.
Example:
We believe that our university must develop and produce outstanding students who will perform
with great skill and fulfill the demands of our nation. This passage does not make any claim that
the belief or opinion is supported by evidence, or that it supports some conclusion, and hence
does not contain an argument.
D. Loosely associated statements may be about the same general subject, but they lack a claim
that one of them is proved by the others.
Example:

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Not to honor men of worth will keep the people from contention; not to value goods that are hard
to come by will keep them from theft; not to display what is desirable will keep them from being
unsettled of mind. (Lao-Tzu, Thoughts from the Tao Te Ching)
Because there is no claim that any of these statements provides evidence or reasons for believing
another, there is no argument.
E. A report consists of a group of statements that convey information about some topic or
event.
Example:
The great renaissance dam of Ethiopia has opened an employment opportunity for thousands of
Ethiopians. In its completion, thirteen thousand Ethiopians are expected to be hired.
These statements could serve as the premises of an argument, but because the author makes no
claim that they support or imply anything, there is no argument.

 One must be careful, though, with reports about arguments.

Example:
“The Air Force faces a serious shortage of experienced pilots in the years ahead, because
repeated overseas tours and the allure of high paying jobs with commercial airlines are winning
out over lucrative bonuses to stay in the service,” says a prominent Air Force official.
(Newspaper clipping)

Properly speaking, this passage is not an argument, because the author of the passage does not
claim that anything is supported by evidence. Rather, the author reports the claim by the Air
Force official that something is supported by evidence. If such passages are interpreted as
containing‖ arguments, it must be made clear that the argument is not the author‘s but one made
by someone about whom the author is reporting.
F. Expository Passages
An expository passage is a kind of discourse that begins with a topic sentence followed by one or
more sentences that develop the topic sentence. If the objective is not to prove the topic sentence
but only to expand it or elaborate it, then there is no argument.
Example:
There is a stylized relation of artist to mass audience in the sports, especially in baseball. Each
player develops a style of his own-the swagger as he steps to the plate, the unique windup a
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pitcher has, the clean-swinging and hard-driving hits, the precision quickness and grace of infield
and outfield, the sense of surplus power behind whatever is done. (Max Lerner, America as a
Civilization)
In this passage the topic sentence is stated first, and the remaining sentences merely develop and
flesh out this topic sentence. This passage is not argument, because it lacks an inferential claim.
However, expository passages differ from simple non-inferential passages (such as warnings
and pieces of advice) in that many of them can also be taken as arguments. If the purpose of
the subsequent sentences in the passage is not only to flesh out the topic sentence but also to
prove it, then the passage is an argument.
Example:
Skin and the mucous membrane lining the respiratory and digestive tracts serve as mechanical
barriers to entry by microbes. Oil gland secretions contain chemicals that weaken or kill bacteria
on skin. The respiratory tract is lined by cells that sweep mucus and trapped particles up into the
throat, where they can be swallowed. The stomach has an acidic pH, which inhibits the growth of
many types of bacteria. (Sylvia S. Mader, Human Biology, 4th ed.)
In this passage, the topic sentence is stated first, and the purpose of the remaining sentences is
not only to show how the skin and mucous membranes serve as barriers to microbes but also to
prove that they do this. Thus, the passage can be taken as both an expository passage and an
argument.
In deciding whether an expository passage should be interpreted as an argument, try to determine
whether the purpose of the subsequent sentences in the passage is merely to develop the topic
sentence or also to prove that it is true. In borderline cases, ask yourself whether the topic
sentence makes a claim that everyone accepts or agrees with. If it does, the passage is probably
not an argument. In real-life situations, authors rarely try to prove something is true when
everyone already accepts it.
However, if the topic sentence makes a claim that many people do not accept or have never
thought about, then the purpose of the remaining sentences may be both to prove the topic
sentence is true as well as to develop it. If this be so, the passage is an argument. Finally, if even
this procedure yields no definite answer, the only alternative is may be to say that if the passage

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is taken as an argument, then the fi rst statement is the conclusion and the others are the
premises.
G. Illustrations
An illustration is an expression involving one or more examples that is intended to show what
something means or how it is done. Illustrations are often confused with arguments because
many illustrations contain indicator words such as ―thus.
Example:
Chemical elements, as well as compounds, can be represented by molecular formulas. Thus,
oxygen is represented by “O2”, water by “H2O”, and sodium chloride by “NaCl”. This passage
is not an argument, because it makes no claim that anything is being proved. The word ―thus‖
indicates how something is done - namely, how chemical elements and compounds can be
represented by formulas. However, as with expository passages, many illustrations can be
taken as arguments. Such arguments are often called arguments from example. Here is an
instance of one:
Although most forms of cancer, if untreated, can cause death, not all cancers are life-
threatening. For example, basal cell carcinoma, the most common of all skin cancers, can
produce disfigurement, but it almost never results in death.

In this passage, the example given is intended to prove the truth of ―Not all cancers are life-
threatening. Thus, the passage is best interpreted as an argument. In deciding whether an
illustration should be interpreted as an argument, determine whether the passage merely shows
how something is done or what something means, or whether it also purports to prove
something.
Thus, in reference to the first example we considered, most people are aware that elements and
compounds can be expressed by formulas. For example, practically everyone knows that water is
H2O. But they may not have ever considered whether some forms of cancer are not life-
threatening. This is one of the reasons for evaluating the first example as mere illustration and
the last one as an argument.

H. Explanations

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One of the most important kinds of non-argument is the explanation. An explanation is an
expression that purports to shed light on some event or phenomenon, which is usually accepted
as a matter of fact. It attempts to clarify, or describe such alike why something is happen that
way or why something is what it is.
Example:
Cows digest grass while humans cannot, because their digestive systems contain enzyme not
found in humans.
Every explanation is composed of two distinct components: the explanandum and explanans.
The explanandum is the statement that describes the event or phenomenon to be explained, and
the explanans is the statement or group of statements that purports to do the explaining. In the
first example, the explanandum is the statement ―Cows digest grass while humans cannot‖ and
the explanans is ―their [cows‟] digestive systems contain enzyme not found in humans.‖

Lesson 3: Types of Arguments: Deduction and Induction

3.1 Deductive Arguments
A deductive argument is an argument incorporating the claim that it is impossible for the
conclusion to be false given that the premises are true. It is an argument in which the premises
are claimed to support the conclusion in such a way that it is impossible for the premises to be
true and the conclusion false. In such arguments, the conclusion is claimed to follow necessarily
(conclusively) from the premises. Thus, deductive arguments are those that involve necessary
reasoning.

Example-1: Example-2:
All philosophers are critical thinkers. All African footballers are blacks.
Socrates is a philosopher. Messi is an African footballer.
Therefore, Socrates is a critical thinker. It follows that, Messi is black.

The above two examples are examples of a deductive argument. In both of them, the
conclusion is claimed to follow from the premises with certainty; or the premises are claimed to
support their corresponding conclusion with a strict necessity. If we, for example, assume that
all philosophers are critical thinkers and that Socrates is a philosopher, then it is impossible that
Socrates not be a critical thinker. Similarly, if we assume that all African footballers are blacks and

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that Messi is an African footballer, then it is impossible that Messi not be a black. Thus, we should
interpret these arguments as deductive.
3.2 Inductive Arguments
Example-1: Example-2:
Most African leaders are blacks. Almost all women are mammals.
Mandela was an African leader. Hanan is a woman.
Therefore, probably Mandela was black. Hence, Hanan is a mammal.
An inductive argument is an argument incorporating the claim that it is improbable for the
conclusion to be false given that the premises are true. It is an argument in which the premises
are claimed to support the conclusion in such a way that it is improbable for the premises to be
true and the conclusion false. In such arguments, the conclusion is claimed to follow only
probably from the premises. The premises may provide some considerable evidence for the
conclusion but they do not imply (necessarily support) the conclusion. In this case, we might
have sufficient condition (evidence) but we cannot be certain about the truth of the conclusion.
However, this does not mean that the conclusion is wrong or unacceptable, where as it could be
correct or acceptable but only based on probability. Thus, inductive arguments are those that
involve probabilistic reasoning.

Both of the above arguments are inductive. In both of them, the conclusion does not follow from
the premises with strict necessity, but it does follow with some degree of probability. That is, the
conclusion is claimed to follow from the premises only probably; or the premises are claimed to
support their corresponding conclusion with a probability. In other words, if we assume that the
premises are true, then based on that assumption it is probable that the conclusion is true. If we,
for example, assume that most African leaders were blacks and that Mandela was an African
leader, then it is improbable that Mandela not been a black, or it is probable that Mandela was
black. But it is not impossible that Mandela not been a black. Similarly, if we assume that almost
all women are mammals and that Hanan is a woman, then it is improbable that Hanan not be a
mammal, or it is probable that Hanan is a mammal. But it is not impossible that Hanan not be a
mammal. Thus, the above arguments are best interpreted as inductive.

3.3 Differentiating Deductive and Inductive Arguments

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The distinction between inductive and deductive arguments lies in the strength of an argument‘s
inferential claim. In other words, the distinction lies on how strongly the conclusion is claimed to
follow from the premises, or how strongly the premises are claimed to support the conclusion.
However, in most arguments, the strength of this claim is not explicitly stated, so we must use
our interpretative abilities to evaluate it. In the deciding whether an argument is deductive or
inductive, we must look at certain objective features of the argument. There are three factors that
influence the decision about the deductiveness or inductiveness of an argument‘s inferential claim.
These are:

1) The occurrence of special indicator words,

2) The actual strength of the inferential link between premises and conclusion, and
3) The character or form of argumentation the arguers use.

However, we must acknowledge at the outset that many arguments in ordinary language are
incomplete, and because of this, deciding whether the argument should best be interpreted as
deductive or inductive may be impossible. Let us see the above factors in detail in order to
understand and identify the different styles of argumentation.

The first factor that influences our decision about a certain inferential claim is the occurrence
of special indicator words. There are different sort of indicator words that indicate or mark the
type of a certain argument. Arguments may contain some words that indicate the arguer‘s
certainty and confidence, or the arguer‘s uncertainty or doubt, about the truth of his/her
conclusion. Words like certainly, ‘‘necessarily, absolutely,‘‘ and definitely‘‘ indicate that the
argument should be taken as deductive, whereas words like, probable, improbable,‘‘ plausible,
‘‘implausible, ‘‘likely, ‘‘unlikely,‘‘ and reasonable to conclude‖ suggest that an argument is
inductive. The point is that if an argument draws its conclusion, using either of the deductive
indicator words, it is usually best to interpret it as deductive, but if it draws its conclusion, using
either of the inductive indicator words, it is usually best to interpret it as inductive. (Note that the
phrase it must be the case that is ambiguous; must can indicate either probability or
necessity).

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Deductive and Inductive indicator words often suggest the correct interpretation. However, one
should be cautious about these special indicator words, because if they conflict with one of the
other criteria, we should probably ignore them. For arguers often use phrases such as it certainly
follows that for rhetorical purposes to add impact to their conclusion and not to suggest that the
argument be taken as deductive. Similarly, some arguers, not knowing the distinction between
inductive and deductive, will claim to deduce a conclusion when their argument is more
correctly interpreted as inductive. If one takes these words at face value, then one might wrongly
leads into wrong conclusions. Therefore, the occurrence of an indicator word is not a certain
guarantee for the deductiveness or inductiveness of an argument unless it is supported by the
other features. This leads us to consider the second factor.

The second factor that bears upon our interpretation of an argument as inductive or deductive
is the actual strength of the inferential link between premises and conclusion. If the conclusion
actually does follow with strict necessity from the premises, the argument is clearly deductive. In
such an argument, it is impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false. If, on the
other hand, the conclusion of an argument does not follow with strict necessity but does follow
probably, it is usually best to interpret it as inductive argument. Consider the following
examples.

Example-1: Example-2:
All Ethiopian people love their country. The majority of Ethiopian people are poor.
Debebe is an Ethiopian. Alamudin is an Ethiopian.
Therefore, Debebe loves his country. Therefore, Alamudin is poor.

In the first example, the conclusion follows with strict necessity from the premises. If we assume
that all Ethiopian people love their country and that Debebe is an Ethiopian, then it is impossible
that Debebe not love his country. Thus, we should interpret this argument as deductive. In the
second example, the conclusion does not follow from the premises with strict necessity, but it
does follow with some degree of probability. If we assume that the premises are true, then based
on that assumption it is probable that the conclusion is true. Thus, it is best to interpret the
second argument as inductive.

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Occasionally, an argument contains no special indicator words, and the conclusion does not
follow either necessarily or probably from the premises; in other words, it does not follow at all.
This situation points up the need for the third factor to be taken into account, which is the
character or form of argumentation the arguer uses. Let us see some examples of deductive
argumentative forms and inductive argumentative forms.

☞ Instances of Deductive Argumentative Forms

Many arguments have a distinctive character or form that indicates that the premises are
supposed to provide absolute support for the conclusion. Five examples of such forms or kinds
of argumentation are arguments based on mathematics, arguments from definition, and
syllogisms: categorical, hypothetical, and disjunctive syllogisms.

-Argument based on mathematics: it is an argument in which the conclusions depend on

some purely arithmetic or geometric computation or measurement. For example, you can put two
orange and three bananas in a bag and conclude that the bag contains five fruits. Or again you
can measure a square pieces of land and after determining it is ten meter on each side conclude
that its area is a hundred square meter. Since all arguments in pure mathematics are deductive,
we can usually consider arguments that depend on mathematics to be deductive as well. A
noteworthy exception, however, is arguments that depend on statistics are usually best
interpreted as inductive.

-Arguments based on definition: it is an argument in which the conclusion is claimed to

depend merely up on the definition of some words or phrase used in the premise or conclusion.
For example, one may argue that Angel is honest; it follows that Angel tells the truth. Or again,
Kebede is a physician; therefore, he is a doctor. These arguments are deductive because their
conclusions follow with necessity from the definitions ―honest and ―physician.

-Syllogisms are arguments consisting of exactly two premises and one conclusion. Syllogisms
can be categorized into three groups; categorical, hypothetical, and disjunctive syllogism.
-Categorical syllogism: a syllogism is an argument consisting of exactly two premises and one
conclusion. Categorical syllogism is a syllogism in which the statement begins with one of the
words all, no and some. Example:
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All Egyptians are Muslims.
No Muslim is a Christian.
Hence, no Egyptian is a Christian.
Arguments such as these are nearly interpreted as deductive.
-Hypothetical syllogism: It is a syllogism having a conditional statement for one or both of its
premises.
Example:
If you study hard, then you will graduate with Distinction.
If you graduate with Distinction, then you will get a rewarding job.
Therefore, if you study hard, then you will get a rewarding job.
Such arguments are best interpreted as deductive.
-Disjunctive syllogism: it is a syllogism having a disjunctive statement. (I.e. an ―either … or‖
statement.)
Example:
Rewina is either Ethiopian or Eritrean.
Rewina is not Eritrean.
Therefore, Rewina is Ethiopian.
As with hypothetical syllogism, such arguments are usually best taken as deductive.
☞Instances of Inductive Argumentative Forms
In general, inductive arguments are such that the content of the conclusion is in some way
intended to go beyond‖ the content of the premises. The premises of such an argument typically
deal with some subject that is relatively familiar, and the conclusion then moves beyond this to a
subject that is less familiar or that little is known about. Such an argument may take any of
several forms: predictions about the future, arguments from analogy, inductive
generalizations, arguments from authority, arguments based on signs, and causal inferences,
to name just a few.

-Prediction: in a prediction the premises deals with some known event in the present or the
past and the conclusions moves beyond this event to some event to relative future. For example,
one may argue that because certain clouds develop in the center of the highland, a rain will fall
within twenty-four hours. Nearly everyone realizes that the future cannot be known with
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certainty. Thus, whenever an argument makes a prediction about the future one is usually
justified considering the argument inductive.

-An argument from analogy: It is an argument that depends on the existence of an analogy
or similarity between two things or state of affairs. Because of the existence of this analogy a
certain conditions that affects the better- known thing or situations is concluded to affect the less
familiar , lesser known-thing or situation. For instance, one may conclude, after observing the
similarity of some features of Computer A and car B: that both are manufactured in 2012; that
both are easy to access; that Computer A is fast in processing; it follows that Computer B is also
fast in processing. This argument depends on the existence of a similarity or analogy between the
two cars. The certitude attending such an inference is obviously probabilistic at best.

-An inductive generalization: it is an argument that proceeds from the knowledge of a

selected sample to some claim about the whole group. Because the members of the sample have
a certain characteristics, it is argued that all members of the group have the same characteristics.
For example, one may argue that because three out of four people in a single prison are black,
one may conclude that three-fourth of prison populations are blacks. This example illustrates
that, the use of statistics in inductive argumentation.

-An argument from authority: it is an argument in which the conclusions rest upon a
statement made by some presumed authority or witness. A lawyer, for instance, may argue that
the person is guilty because an eyewitness testifies to that effect under oath. Or again one may
argue that all matters are made up of a small particles called quarks because the University
Professor said so. Because the professor and the eyewitness could be either mistaken or lying,
such arguments are essentially probabilistic.

-Arguments based on sign: it is an argument that proceeds from the knowledge of a certain
sign to the knowledge of a thing or situation that the sign symbolizes. For instance, one may
infer that after observing No Parking‘ sign posted on the side of a road, the area is not allowed
for parking. But because the sign might be displaced or in error about the area or forgotten,
conclusion follows only probably.
A causal inference: it is an argument which proceed from the knowledge of a cause to the
knowledge of an effect, or conversely, from the knowledge of an effect to knowledge of a cause.
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For example, from the knowledge that a bottle of water had been accidentally left in the freezer
overnight, someone might conclude that it had frozen (cause to effect). Conversely, after tasting
a piece of chicken and finding it dry and tough, one might conclude that it had been overcooked
(effect to cause). Because specific instances of cause and effect can never be known with
absolute certainty, one may usually interpret such an argument as inductive.
Furthermore Considerations
It should be noted that the various subspecies of inductive arguments listed here are not intended
to be mutually exclusive. Overlaps can and do occur. For example, many causal inferences that
proceed from cause to effect also qualify as predictions. We should take care not to confuse
arguments in geometry, which are always deductive, with arguments from analogy or inductive
generalizations. For example, an argument concluding that a triangle has a certain attribute (such
as a right angle) because another triangle, with which it is congruent, also has that attribute might
be mistaken for an argument from analogy.

One broad classification of arguments not listed in this survey is scientific arguments. Arguments
that occur in science can be either inductive or deductive, depending on the circumstances. In
general, arguments aimed at the discovery of a law of nature are usually considered inductive.
Another type of argument that occurs in science has to do with the application of known laws to
specific circumstances. Arguments of this sort are often considered to be deductive, but only
with certain reservations.

A final point needs to be made about the distinction between inductive and deductive arguments.
There is a tradition extending back to the time of Aristotle that holds that inductive arguments
are those that proceed from the particular to the general, while deductive arguments are that
proceed from the general to the particular. (A particular statement is one that makes a claim
about one or more particular members of a class, while a general statement makes a claim about
all the members of a class.) In fact, there are deductive arguments that proceed from the general
to the general, from the particular to the particular, and from the particular to the general, as well
as from the general to the particular; and there are inductive arguments that do the same. For
example, here is a deductive argument that proceeds from the particular to the general:
Three is a prime number.

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Five is a prime number.
Seven is a prime number.
Therefore, all odd numbers between two and eight are prime numbers.
Here is an inductive argument that proceeds from the general to the particular:
All emeralds previously found have been green.
Therefore, the next emerald to be found will be green.
In sum up, to distinguish deductive arguments from inductive, we look for special indicator
words, the actual strength of the inferential link between premises and conclusion, and the
character or form of argumentation.
Lesson 4: Evaluating Arguments
4.1 Evaluating Deductive Arguments: Validity, Truth, and Soundness
Deduction and Validity
The previous section defined a deductive argument as one in which the premises are claimed to
support the conclusion in such a way that if they are assumed true, it is impossible for the
conclusions to be false. If the premises do in fact support the conclusions in this way the
arguments is said to be valid; if not, it is invalid. Thus, a valid deductive argument is an
argument such that if the premises are assumed true, it is impossible for the conclusion to be
false. In such arguments, the conclusion follows with strict necessity from the premises.
Conversely, an invalid deductive argument is an argument such that if the premises are assumed
true, it is possible for the conclusion to be false. In these arguments, the conclusion does not
follow with strict necessity from the premises, even though it is claimed to. Consider the
following examples:

Example-1: Example-2
All men are mammals All philosophers are rational.
All bulls are men. Socrates was rational.
Therefore, all bulls are mammals. Therefore, Socrates was a philosopher.

The first example is valid argument, because the conclusion actually followed from the
premises with a strict necessity. If all men are assumed as mammals and bulls as men, then it is

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impossible for bulls not be mammals. Hence, the argument is valid. The second example is
invalid argument, because the conclusion did not actually follow from the premises with a strict
necessity, even though it is claimed to. That is, even if we assume that all philosophers rational
and Socrates is rational, it is not actually impossible for Socrates not be a philosopher.

The above definitions of valid and invalid arguments, along with their corresponding examples,
lead us into two immediate conclusions. The first is that there is no middle ground between valid
and invalid. An argument is either valid or invalid. The second consequence is that there is only
an indirect relation between validity and truth. For an argument to be valid it is not necessary
that either the premises or the conclusions be true, but merely that if the premises assumed true,
it is impossible for the conclusion be false. That is, we do not have to know whether the premise
of an argument is actually true in order to determine its validity (valid or invalid). To test an
argument for validity, we begin by assuming that all premises are true, and then we determine if
it is possible, in light of that assumption, for the conclusion to be false. Thus, the validity of
argument is the connection between premise and conclusion rather than on the actual truth or
falsity of the statement formed the argument.
There are four possibilities with respect to the truth or falsity of the premises and conclusion of a given
argument:
1) True premises and True conclusion,
2) True premises and False conclusion,
3) False premises and True conclusion, and
4) False premises and False conclusion.

Note that all of the above possibilities, except the second case (true premises and false
conclusion), allow for both valid and invalid arguments. That is, the second case does not allow
for valid arguments. As we have just seen, any argument having this combination is necessarily
invalid. Let us discuss these possibilities in detail with examples.

☞ Validity and Truth Value

Possibility # 1: A combination of True premises and True conclusion (the first case) allows for
both valid and invalid arguments. Consider the following examples:

Example-1: (Valid): Example-2 (Invalid):

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 All women’s are mammals. (Tp) All philosophers are critical thinkers. (Tp)
My mother is a woman (Tp) Plato was a critical thinker. (Tp)
Therefore, my mother is a mammal (Tc) Therefore, Plato was a philosopher. (Tc)

Based on the features of valid and invalid arguments, the above two examples, each of which
combine True premises and True conclusion, are valid argument and invalid argument,
respectively. Therefore, the first combination allows for both valid and invalid arguments.

Possibility # 2: A combination of True premises and false conclusion (the second case) allows
only for invalid arguments. Consider the following example:
Example-1: (Invalid):
All biologists are scientists. (Tp)
John Nash was a scientist. (Tp)
Therefore, John Nash was a biologist. (Fc)

Based on the features of validity, the above example, which combines True premises and False
conclusion, is an invalid argument. A valid argument with such combination does not exist. Any
deductive argument having actually true premises and an actually false conclusion is invalid,
because if the premises are actually true and the conclusion is actually false, then it certainly is
possible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false. Thus, by definition, the argument is
invalid. After all such combinations are contrary to the inferential claim of a deductive argument:
if the premises are assumed to be true, then it is impossible for the conclusion to be false.
Therefore, the second combination allows only for invalid arguments.

Possibility # 3: A combination of False premises and True conclusion (the third case) allows for
both valid and invalid arguments. Consider the following examples:

Example-1: (Valid): Example-2(Invalid):

All birds are mammals. (Fp) All birds are mammals. (Fp)
All women are birds. (Fp) All ostriches are mammals. (Fp)
Therefore, all women are mammals. (Tc) Therefore, all ostriches are birds. (Tc)

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Based on the features of valid and invalid arguments, the above two examples, each of which
combine False premises and True conclusion, are valid argument and invalid argument,
respectively. Therefore, the third combination, as the first one, allows for both valid and invalid
arguments.

Possibility # 4: A combination of False premises and False conclusion (the fourth case) allows
for both valid and invalid arguments. Consider the following examples:

Example-1: (Valid): Example-2(Invalid):

All Americans are Ethiopians. (Fp) All birds are mammals. (Fp)
All Egyptians are Americans. (Fp) All ants are mammals. (Fp)
Thus, all Egyptians are Ethiopians. (Fc) Therefore, all ants are birds. (Fc)

Based on the features of valid and invalid arguments, the above two examples, each of which
combine False premises and False conclusion, are valid argument and invalid argument,
respectively. Therefore, the fourth combination also allows for both valid and invalid arguments.

In general, the basic idea of evaluating deductive argument, validity (valid and invalid) is not
something that is determined by the actual truth or falsity of the premises and conclusion. Rather,
validity is something that is determined by the relationship between premises and conclusion.
The question is not whether premises and conclusion are true or false, but whether the premises
support the conclusion. Nevertheless, there is one arrangement of truth and falsity in the
premises and conclusion that does determine the issue of validity. Any deductive argument
having actually true premises and an actually false conclusion is invalid for the reason given
above. The idea that any deductive argument having actually true premises and a false
conclusion is invalid may be the most important point in the entire system of deductive logic.
The entire system of deductive logic would be quite useless if it accepted as valid any inferential
process by which a person could start with truth in the premises and arrive at falsity in the
conclusion.

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The relationship between the validity of a deductive argument and the truth and falsity of its
premises and conclusions summarized as follows.

Table 1.1
Premises Conclusion Validity
True True Valid/invalid
True False Invalid
False True Valid/invalid
False False Valid/invalid

☞ Deduction and Soundness

We said earlier that the evaluation of every argument centers on the evaluation of two claims: the
inferential claim and factual claim of the argument. We have also said that we will always test
the inferential claim first, and only if the premises do support the conclusion will we test the
factual claim (that is, the claim that the premises present genuine evidence, or are true). Now that
we have tested the inferential claims of deductive arguments, it is time to proceed to the next
step: evaluating the factual claims of deductive arguments.

Depending on their actual ability, (assuming that they already have actually accomplished their
inferential claims by being valid), to accomplish their factual claims, deductive arguments can be
either sound or unsound. A sound argument is a deductive argument that is valid and has all true
premises. Both conditions must be met for an argument to be sound, and if either is missing the
argument is unsound. A deductive argument that does not actually accomplish its inferential
claim, (that is not valid), cannot be sound, regardless of the truth values of its premises. Such a
deductive argument is unsound, by definition. Thus, an unsound argument is a deductive
argument that is either valid with one or more false premises, or invalid, or both. Because a valid
argument is one such that it is impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false,
and because a sound argument does in fact have true premises, it follows that every sound
argument, by definition, will have a true conclusion as well. A sound argument, therefore, is
what is meant by a good deductive argument in the fullest sense of the term.

Sound Argument = A valid argument + All true premises

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4.2 Evaluating Inductive Arguments: Strength, Truth, and Cogency
Induction and Strength
The previous section defined an inductive argument as one in which the premises are claimed to
support the conclusions in such a way that if they are assumed true, it is improbable for the
conclusions to be false. If the premises do in fact support the conclusions in this way the
arguments is said to be strong; if not, it is weak. Thus, a strong inductive argument is an
argument such that if the premises are assumed true, it is improbable for the conclusion to be
false. In such arguments, the conclusion follows probably from the premises. Conversely, a weak
inductive argument is an argument such that if the premises are assumed true, it is probable for
the conclusions to be false. In these arguments, the conclusion does not follow probably from the
premises, even though it is claimed to. Consider the following examples:

Example-1: Example-2
This barrel contains one hundred apples. This barrel contains one hundred apples.
Eighty apples selected at random were found tasty. Three apples selected at random were found tasty.
Therefore, probably all one hundred apples are Therefore, probably all one hundred apples are
tasty. tasty.

The first example is strong argument, because the conclusion actually follows probably from the
premises. The second example is weak argument, because the conclusion does not actually
follow probably from the premises, even though it is claimed to. The procedure for testing the
strength of inductive arguments runs parallel to the procedure for deduction.

☞ Strength and Truth Value

Just as what happened from definitions and examples of valid and invalid arguments earlier, two
immediate conclusions follow from the above definitions and examples of strong and weak
arguments. The first is that, unlike the validity and invalidity of deductive arguments, the
strength and weakness of inductive arguments admit certain form of degrees. To be considered
strong, an inductive argument must have a conclusion that is more probable than improbable. In
inductive arguments, there is no absolutely strong or absolutely weak argument. For instance, the
first is not absolutely weak nor the second absolutely strong. Both arguments would be
strengthened or weakened by the random selection of a larger or smaller sample. The
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incorporation of additional premises into inductive arguments will also generally tend to strength
or weaken it. For example, if the premise ― one un-tasty apple that had been found earlier was
removed‖ were added to the second argument, the argument would presumably be weakened.

The second consequence is that, as validity and invalidity, strength and weakness are only
indirectly related to the truth values of their premises. The central question in determining
strength or weakness is whether the conclusion would probably true if the premises are assumed
true. For an argument to be strong it is not necessary that either the premises or the conclusions
be true, but merely that if the premises assumed true, it is improbable for the conclusion be false.
That is, we do not have to know whether the premise of an argument is actually true in order to
determine its strength (strong or weak). To test an argument for strength, what we need to do is
to assume the premise true and then to see whether the conclusion follows more/less probably
from the premise. Thus, the strength or weakness of an inductive argument results not from the
actual truth or falsity of the premises and conclusion, but from the probabilistic support the
premises give to the conclusion.

We have said earlier that there are four possibilities with respect to the truth or falsity of the
premises and conclusion of a given argument: True premises and True conclusion, True premises
and False conclusion, False premises and True conclusion, and False premises and False
conclusion. These possibilities work in inductive arguments as well.

Note that all of the above possibilities, except the second case (true premises and false
conclusion), allow for both strong and weak arguments. That is, the second case does not allow
for strong arguments. As we have just seen, any argument having this combination is necessarily
weak. In general, the basic idea of evaluating inductive argument, strength is not something that
is determined by the actual truth or falsity of the premises and conclusion, but by the relationship
between premises and conclusion. Nevertheless, there is one arrangement of truth and falsity in
the premises and conclusion that does determine the issue of strength. Thus, any inductive
argument having actually true premises and an actually false conclusion is weak.

The relationship between the strength of an inductive argument and the truth and falsity of its
premises and conclusions summarized as follows.

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Table 1.2:
Premises Conclusion Strength
True True Strong/Weak
True False Weak
False True Strong/Weak
False False Strong/Weak

Induction and Cogency

We said earlier that the evaluation of every argument centers on the evaluation of two claims: the
inferential claim and factual claim of the argument. We have also said that we will always test the
inferential claim first, and only if the premises do support the conclusion will we test the factual claim
(that is, the claim that the premises present genuine evidence, or are true). Now that we have tested the
inferential claims of inductive arguments, it is time to proceed to the next step: evaluating the factual
claims of inductive arguments.

Depending on their actual ability, (assuming that they already have actually accomplished their inferential
claims by being strong), to accomplish their factual claims, inductive arguments can be either cogent or
uncogent. A cogent argument is an inductive argument that is strong and has all true premises. Both
conditions must be met for an argument to be cogent, and if either is missing the argument is uncogent.
An inductive argument that does not actually accomplish its inferential claim, (that is not strong), cannot
be cogent, regardless of the truth values of its premises. Such an inductive argument is uncogent, by
definition. Thus, an uncogent argument is an inductive argument that is either strong with one or more
false premises, or weak, or both. Because the conclusion of a cogent argument is genuinely supported by
true premises, it follows that the conclusion of every cogent argument is probably true. A cogent
argument is the inductive analogue of a sound deductive argument and is what is meant by a ‗‗good‘‘
inductive argument without qualification.

Cogent Argument = A strong argument + All true premises

There is a difference, however, between sound and cogent arguments in regard to the true-premise
requirement. In a sound argument, it is only necessary that the premises be true and nothing more. Given
such premises and good reasoning, a true conclusion is guaranteed. In a cogent argument, on the other
hand, the premises must not only be true, they must also not ignore some important piece of evidence that
outweighs the given evidence and entails a quite different conclusion.

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That is, if the premises reflect all the important factors, then the argument is cogent; if not, then obviously
the argument is not cogent. Thus, for cogency, the premises must not only be true but also not overlook
some important factor that outweighs the given evidence and requires a different conclusion.

Compiled by Tefera K.

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