Dietz RethinkingEnvironmentalImpacts 1994

Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population, Affluence and Technology
Author(s): Thomas Dietz and Eugene A. Rosa

Source: Human Ecology Review , SUMMER/AUTUMN 1994, Vol. 1, No. 2
(SUMMER/AUTUMN 1994), pp. 277-300
Published by: Society for Human Ecology
Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/24706840
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Human Ecology Review. Summer/Autumn, 1, 1994 Human Ecology Forum
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES
Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population,

Affluence and Technology1
Thomas Dietz
Department of Sociology
Anthropology
George Mason University
Fairfax VA 22030
Eugene A. Rosa
Department of Sociology
Washington State University
Pullman WA 99164
as old
How might we better understand the as civilization, perhaps as old as written
linkages
between population, resources and environmental
history itself.2 Heroditus, writing in the 5th century
impacts? How might we proceed tobefore develop
Christ, noted how the population of the
organized research programs to examine
Lydians these
had outpaced production leading to a
linkages? How might we discipline ourprolonged conceptualfamine that lasted eighteen years (The
models with empirical tests? In this paper,
History. we
Book 1:22-23).3 And Seneca the Younger
address these three questions, focusing on writing in the first decades of the Christian era
anthropogenic environmental change. We suggest (Naturales Ouaestiones) noted a connection between
that an adaptation of the widely known IP AT model population and pollution in Rome.4 He traced
(Commoner 1972, 1992; Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1990; pollution to the growth of household cooking fires
Ehrlich and Holdren 1971, 1972; Holdren and and the increased traffic on the dusty streets of the
Ehrlich 1974) modified to meet statistical testing city, and also to the burning of dead bodies just
requirements, is one strategy for addressing these outside the city limits. Despite this early
questions. We provide a brief historical account of recognition, connections between population and
scholarly discourse bearing on the questions posed environment were anecdotal and inchoate in classical
above. We note that the social sciences, on the one writings.
hand, and the biological and environmental sciences, The idea of a causal link between population
on the other hand, have addressed them in parallel, and resources developed into a more concrete form in
but generally separately—and often antagonistically. the eleventh century. In 1086, William the
Then, we describe the original IP AT model and our Conqueror commissioned an enumeration of the
proposed modifications, evaluating the respective population and its landed wealth, recording the results
strengths and weaknesses of both. We map out in the Domesday Book (the word "domesday" being
guidelines for further modification, elaboration and a corruption of the word doomsday, the final day of
testing of the model. Finally, we sketch some judgment (Weeks 1986)). This accounting was
suggestions for superseding the IP AT model. instrumental in carrying forward the idea that there
History of an Idea. The idea that population growth was a link between population and resources. But it
affects environmental resources and human welfare is wasn't until the eighteenth century, with the writing
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of the classical economists, particularly, Thomas common focus, a human ecology, but instead added
Robert Malthus, that the population-resource link a third lens to the common perspective. Systematic
received systematic attention. Malthus posed a investigation of human-environment interrelations
pivotal questions in his first essay that gave structure usually was ignored. This intellectual history set the
to an inchoate idea: What effect does population stage for the current state of affairs: the investigation
growth have on the availability of resources needed of a common problem along parallel, but separate
for human welfare? (1960[1798]). His answer, tracks and with specialized foci. It also set the stage
known by nearly every educated person for the past for the rekindling of the two-centuries old debate.
two centuries, was that "geometric" growth This has been very visible in the dispute between
(exponential growth in modern parlance) in Paul Ehrlich (1981, 1982) and Julian Simon (1981b,
population would eventually outstrip the "arithmetic" 1982), which is summarized in Dunlap (1993). In
growth (or linear growth) in the means of the last two decades, the upturn in the intensity of the
subsistence. In other words, unless population was debate is due to an increased concern with
held in check, the inevitable outcome would be anthropogenic changes in the physical and bio
perpetual misery and poverty. environment.
Malthus is considered a classical economist Revisiting LPAT. We view anthropogenic global
because his writings appeared during the period (the
change as a real and challenging problem, in need of
late 18th and early 19th century) when the practicesystematic
of investigation. The IPAT model, first
economics was crystallizing into a recognizable social
proposed two decades ago, represented the efforts of
science discipline.3 While the foundation he laid was
population biologists, ecologists and environmental
social scientific in origin, its more general scientists to formalize the relationship between
applicability to the problem of species-to population, human welfare and environmental
environments interactions and species dependency on impacts. Here we revisit the IPAT model that
finite resources was soon recognized. Charles postulates that environmental impact (I) is the product
Darwin experienced an intellectual "a ha" upon of population (P), per capita affluence (A) and
reading Malthus. He developed his theory of technology (T). Why revisit the model in the context
evolution in The Origin of Species (1958[1859]) of global environmental change? First, because it has
around the same basic idea: species have the been adopted as the orienting perspective for much of
tendency to overproduce, with the result that only the discussion about the principal factors, called
those most "fit" to their environmental circumstances "driving forces," of global environmental change.
survive and reproduce.6 Thus population pressure on Population is theorized to be a key driving force,
critical environmental resources drives evolutionary along with economic activity, technology, political
change. and economic institutions, and attitudes and beliefs
The important point to note here is the (Stern et al. 1992). Second, a number of treatments
convergence of the social and biological sciences to of population (e.g. Green 1992), including the award
a common problem, but with each side looking winning work of Paul Harrison (1992-1993, 1994)
through the same eyes with a different disciplinary have likewise used it as an orienting perspective.
lens. Even in Malthus' time, disciplinary But, third, there has been little effort to discipline the
specialization that separated the social from themodel with empirical tests since its inception two
biological sciences was evident. By the late 19th decades ago. In particular, social scientists have
century, sharp boundaries were drawn between the generally ignored the model, while biological,
social sciences and the biological sciences, and even
ecological and other physical and environmental
between disciplines within the social sciences. One scientists, by generally assuming the model to be
consequence of specialization was a prolonged debate true, have not been motivated to test it rigorously.7
about population and human welfare that lasted overWe propose the adoption of the IPAT model as one,
200 years, though its intensity waxed and waned.but by no means the only, procedure for addressing
Not much has really changed since. In the nineteenth global change problems systematically. We also
argue that the IPAT model may be an effective
and especially the twentieth century, the discipline of
ecology would take the pattern of relations between device for operationally bridging the differing
organisms and environments as the focus of its perspectives—social sciences and biological sciences—
investigations. Even so, it did not systematically
on these contemporary environmental problems. That
bring the social and biological sciences into a
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is, the IP AT model may be a way to examine the operational procedures. According to POET,
problem from an human ecological point of view. everything is connected to everything else, with the
Thus our ultimate goal is to generate more disciplined consequence that the framework—in the language of
research and less debate that is not grounded in statistical modeling—is badly underidentified.9
empirical research.
The IPAT model has appealing features. It
has structured much of the debate about the effects of
Figure 1. The POET Model of the Human Ecological Complex
population, affluence and technology on the
environment, and has been a widely adopted
perspective in ecology. But, the model also has
serious limitations. Key among these is that in its
current form it does not provide an adequate
framework for disentangling the various driving
forces of anthropogenic environmental change. As a O - (Social) Organization
consequence, the IPAT model stifles efforts toward E = Environment
T = Technology
cumulative theory and empirical findings. We
propose a stochastic reformulation of the model that
renders it amenable to empirical "disentangling." Recently there has been a focus on the impacts
Once we describe the theoretical and empirical of population growth on resource availability and
advantages of our reformulation, we go on to sketch environmental impacts. The overwhelming majority
alternative ways of conceptualizing the driving forces of this work has examined problems of resource
of anthropogenic change. (especially food) shortages and human welfare.
Population and Economic and Social Change. The While optimists and pessimists persist, a consensus
causes of population and economic change have been view today probably is close to that offered by Coale
addressed in a literature too vast to cite, let alone and Hoover (1958) in their pioneering study of
review. Indeed, the causes of population and India.!0 Production increases driven by price
economic change are central topics of demography increases can keep rough pace with population growth
and economics. There is also a substantial literature and thus prevent the misery envisioned by Malthus.
on the social consequences of population and But rapid population growth retards capital
economic change.8 For example, one of the founders accumulation and improvements in standard of living.
of sociology, Emile Durkheim (1964[1893]) argued An even more optimistic tradition is usually
that leaps in population growth lead to an increased traced to Boserup (1965, 1980) and holds that
competition for environmental resources which, in population growth and concentration lead to economic
turn, leads to the division of labor in society. An growth, not, as Malthus would have it, the other way
early, effort to organize these various factors into a around. Simon (1981a) is the advocate of the view
coherent conceptualization was the POET model, that population most committed growth leads to
displayed in Figure 1, proposed by sociologist Otis enhanced welfare.11 He argues that potential
Dudley Duncan (1964). Duncan sought to alert shortages of any key resource or necessity of life
social scientists to the importance of ecology, arguing generate creative responses that increase productivity
that an ecological framework could enrich the and the efficiency of resource use. Thus population
theoretical understanding of societies. In particular, growth produces innovation that ultimately enhances
because the four components—population, technology, welfare. This body of work has focused on
social organization and physical environment—are agriculture, food production, employment and per
constituent to the operation of literally all societies, capita income.
an examination of their interactions could be the Another tradition examines the effects of
foundation of cumulative social theory. While usefulgrowth on the supply of renewable resources such as
for pointing a social scientific lens toward theforests and fisheries and non-renewable resources,
environment, and while influential as a foundation for
such as minerals and energy.12 It comes to roughly
theory, the model has generated veiy little empirical
the same conclusion as the literature following Coale
research. The principal reason is not hard to discern:
and Hoover on growth and welfare: while population
it is very difficult to map the framework into growth generates some problems, price mechanisms
and human ingenuity provide the solutions to those
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problems. Slower population growth might improve thus on the ability of ecosystems to provide critical
the efficiency of resource use. But the worst fears of services. For simplicity, we will refer to these
Malthus have not been realized, and factors other effects as environmental impacts.13 Here we will
than population growth, particularly institutional focus on the global environmental change complex:
arrangements, are more important than population greenhouse climate change, ozone depletion, acid
size in determining the adequacy of resource supplies. precipitation, species loss and the broad dispersion of
Of course, scholars in the field remain toxics. But, ceteris paribus, the argument applies
cautious about the empirical evidence supporting equally well to less global problems such as local air
these conclusions. For example, the editors of a and water pollution.
recent U.S. National Research Council study Environmental impacts of these sorts are
(Johnson and Lee 1987: xi) note: "drawing firm different in two ways from the problem of resource
conclusions about the overall impact of slower shortages and production shortfalls that have been
population growth is difficult because the research analyzed in the literature cited above. First, these
base is inadequate. Studies completed to date are problems involve the environment as a collective
often on limited samples and data of poor quality, as good. And unlike some common property resources
well as on only partial and occasionally inappropriate that have been well studied, such as fisheries, no
conceptual models and statistical techniques." But market value is assigned to the environmental benefits
whatever the concerns about the quality of evidence, that are threatened by negative environmental
and whatever the remaining disputes and dissension, impacts. Climate is a factor of production, but unlike
the relationship between population and human land, minerals, fish catch or other renewable and
welfare has been far more carefully studied than the non-renewable resources, it is not subject to the
effects of population growth on the biophysical pricing mechanisms that underlie the logic of
environment. previous research on population, welfare and
resources. In effect, climate is treated as a free
The Character of Environmental Degradation good.
Of course, the goods and services provided by
Our understanding of the role of population in the environment do have real value whether or not
anthropogenic change is far from complete. prices are assigned to them. For example, Pimentel
Nevertheless, some impacts are better known than (1992; Pimentel and Hall 1989) has argued for the
others and it will be useful to distinguish the kinds of critical importance of "ecosystem services" to even
impacts that have been relatively well researched the most highly managed agricultural systems. But
from those that have not. Malthus' First Essay was because they are non-market collective goods, that
concerned with the ability of agricultural productivity value is not reflected in price mechanisms. It may be
to keep pace with population growth. As classical possible to find institutional arrangements that will
economics developed, factors of production were allow prices to be assigned to ecosystem services.
clarified, and thus population became one element in This could be accomplished through either a market
studies of growth. This literature viewed land and for the relevant goods and services, as in the air
raw materials (the classical concepts closest to current basin experiments currently being conducted in the
notions of environment) simply as other factors of U.S., or a Pigouvian tax on the activities that
production. To a substantial degree, the question of generate environmental degradation.14 But the point
population impacts posed by Malthus is a question of for the present discussion is that conclusions about
whether or not growth in output and productivity can the effects of population growth on human welfare
keep pace with population growth (cf. Ricardo have assumed that welfare and its determinants have
1891[1817]). prices. Those conclusions do not necessarily apply to
Starting in the 1960s, increased concern with unpriced goods and services. Or to put it differently,
environmental problems made scholars aware of the whatever the policy mechanisms used to address
broad character of human interactions with the current environmental impacts, cumulative impacts
physical and biological environment. In particular,have evolved under conditions in which no economic
concerns were raised about environmental "services" value is assigned to ecosystem services. Thus, while
that were collective goods not given a market value, existing work on population growth and welfare is
and about the "externalities" of production processes tantalizingly suggestive, we have a far from perfect
that may have adverse effects on the environment and understanding of the driving forces of global
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environmental change. regarding the effects of population and economic
Second, the fact that population growth may growth on the environment. They parallel the
not retard economic growth is little comfort to those positions held on population growth and welfare.
concerned about anthropogenic environmental change. One view, held most notably by Ehrlich and his
It has been argued, that economic growth is not collaborators, suggests anticipated population growth
tightly coupled to human welfare (e.g. Nussbaum and will have very severe, even catastrophic, impacts on
Sen 1993; Scotvsky 1976; Sen 1993; Rosa et al. the natural environment and human welfare (Daily
1980). Yet even without advancing welfare, and Ehrlich 1992; Ehrlich 1968; Ehrlich and Ehrlich
increased per capita consumption and the attendant 1990; Ehrlich and Holdren 1971, 1972; Holdren and
generation of residuals is a cause of environmental Ehrlich 1974; Holdren 1991. See also Catton, 1982;
impacts. Thus concern with the biophysical Green, 1992). A second position, derived in part
environment leads to questions about the impacts of from the work of Boserup (1965, 1980),
economic growth as well as of population growth. acknowledges that population growth and economic
Indeed, much of the debate of the last twenty years growth create increased demand for resources. But
centers around the relative importance of economic the resulting perceived or anticipated scarcity is
growth and population growth in generating presumed to drive technological progress and with it
environmental impacts. the search for substitutes and increased efficiency.
Thus, the net effect of population and economic
Population, Affluence and the Environment growth on resource scarcity, human welfare and the
state of the environment is neutral or even positive.
In the late 1960s and early 1970s the argument According to Simon (1981), the most forceful
that population growth would have a strong adverse advocate of this position, the effect of growth is
effect on human welfare was revisited (e.g. Ehrlich invariably positive. A third position suggests that
1968; Meadows et al. 1972). The reaction to these technologies used to stimulate growth are often
analyses was forceful, stimulating a debate that selected without regard to their environmental impact
continues today (Luten 1980). While population (Barkin 1991; Commoner 1992; O'Connor 1988,
growth seems not to have had the catastrophic effects 1989; Schnaiberg 1980; Schnaiberg and Gould 1994).
on human welfare suggested by Malthus, the effects Thus adverse environmental impacts are more a
of population and economic growth on environmental function of the political economy of technological
degradation have not been extensively researched.15 choice than of population or economic growth per se.
Indeed, only a handful of papers offer empirical or To the extent population has an effect on
conceptual analyses of the human driving forces of environment, it is an indirect effect that could be
environmental change. The U.S. National Research mollified by institutional or technological change.
Council (1986), in a report that generally rejects the The fourth position, rather like the consensus on the
Malthusian thesis noted above, also states that there relationship between economic welfare and
is "no evidence" about the effects of population population, is a middle ground. Population is seen
growth on the environment. In a later report, the not as the dominant driving force, but as a
National Research Council concluded that research on contributor to environmental impact acting in consort
the driving forces of global environmental change with affluence, technological choice, institutional
should be one of the highest priorities in "humanarrangements and other factors (Keyfitz 1991a,
dimensions" research efforts (Stern et al. 1992:238 1991b, 1993; Ridker 1972, 1979, 1992; Ridker and
241). The approach proposed here is intended as anCecelski 1979).
initial step towards building a better understanding of How are these four positions sustained? A
the effects of population growth on the environmentnoted above, there has been little empirical work on
relative to the other driving forces. Of course, tothe impacts of population on the environment. The
understand the effects of population growth, it is most extensive literature is found in a series of papers
prepared for the U.S. Commission on Population
necessary to consider the direct and indirect effects of
population on the environment and on other drivingGrowth and the American Future (U.S. Commission
forces. It is also necessary to understand how these on Population Growth and the American Future,
impacts vary across temporal, spatial, socio-cultural 1972; Ridker, 1972). The general conclusion of the
and technological contexts. editor of those papers and of the Commission itself is
There are at least four distinct positions that population growth contributes to environmental
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degradation, but that the impact of population is growth. Thus they do not provide an historical or
generally less than the impact of economic growth comparative assessment of the contribution of various
(Ridker, 1972:19). Ridker also notes that the effects driving forces but rather a projection of what may
of both kinds of growth can be mitigated by the happen, given the assumptions of the model. In other
appropriate choice of policies, technologies and words, S/P models are used to ask "What if?"
institutions. Thus the conclusion is generally The conclusions drawn vary across the several
consistent with the line of work following from Coale S/P models. The Population Commission results
and Hoover's study. suggest only moderate impact of population growth
Methodologies. Three methodologies were on the environment. The "Limits to Growth" models
and their successors see far greater population
employed in the Population Commission report and
impact. Bongaarts (1992) partitions C02 emissions
subsequent studies of population, affluence and the
environment. The most common is a simulation/ into components for population, affluence, energy
projection (S/P) approach. Resource demand orintensity due to affluence and the carbon intensity of
energy. He finds that in the less developed nations,
pollution generation is estimated as a function of per
capita income. Projections of population and income affluence changes will dominate the growth in
are then used to estimate future resource demand or emissions, with population growth the second most
pollution. In the more sophisticated models, such as important factor. In the more developed countries,
those used for the Population Commission studies, growing affluence also drives emissions but changes
input-output analysis is used to account for in energy intensity are more important than changes
intersectoral demand for goods and services (Herzog in population. Kolsrud and Torrey (1991) reach
and Ridker 1972). These demands are also translated similar conclusions regarding population when they
into impacts on resources and pollution generation. examine scenarios for future commercial energy
Typically, the final estimated outputs from each consumption.
sector of the economy are multiplied by coefficients The second common approach is an
representing the impact per unit output at the most accounting analysis (A/A). The most commonly used
recent point in time for which data are available. In form is the IPAT model (Commoner 1972; Ehrlich
some models, these coefficients can be adjusted to and Holdren 1971, 1972; Holdrenand Ehrlich 1974).
take account of environmental policies or increased This model postulates that:
efficiency resulting from technological improvement. I=P*A*T
The S/P model is used to project environmental where I is environmental impact, P is populati
impacts under various scenarios of population and is per capita economic activity (referred t
economic growth. These projections then provide the affluence) and T is the impact per unit eco
basis for determining the effects of population and activity (referred to as technology).
economic growth. In typical applications, data are obtaine
The basic logic of the S/P model is to first impact, population and affluence and the equa
establish a linkage between total economic activity solved for T
(per capita activity multiplied by population) and T = I/(P*A).

environmental impact. Then alternative scenarios of This approach has also been applied to the C02
population and economic growth are projected to efficiency and energy efficiency of economies (Stern
assess environmental impacts. In some models, like et al. 1992:60-67).17 Recently, Mazur (1994) has
the limits to Growth study (Meadows et al. 1972), used a similar approach—though not IPAT itself—in
the structure is very simple—a set of linked assessing the relative contribution of population and
differential equations and multipliers. In others, such all other factors in the growth of energy consumption
as the models used for the Population Commission, in the U.S.18
and some successor studies to Limits to Growth When the model is used to assess the relative
(Barney 1980; Mesarovic and Pestel 1974), the impact of population and affluence as driving forces,
linkages become much more complex. Also, they data for two points in time are usually translated into
disaggregate economic activity in terms of sector by percentage increases for each term in the model.
sector output.16 But all S/P models make assumptions Change in I is then allocated to percentage changes in
about environmental impacts per unit output and then P, A and T. For example, Commoner (1992: 155)
extrapolate into the future under different scenarios of calculates that the use of synthetic organic pesticides
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in the U.S. increased by 266% from 1950 to 1967 (a 1989). Despite using slightly different specifications
1967 to 1950 ratio of 3.66).19 During that same and data sets, all three of these studies find that
period, population grew 30% (a ratio of 1.30), crop population size, growth rate or density has a stronger
production per capita by 5% (a ratio of 1.05) and effect on deforestation than does economic activity.
pesticide consumption per unit crop production—the Rudel (1989) also finds population growth to have a
technology factor for Commoner— by 168% (a ratio stronger effect than a common measure of trade
of 2.68). That is dependency. These preliminary applications and their
3.66=(1.30)*(1.05)*(2.68). findings suggest that the stochastic approach to the
Commoner attributes most increase in the use of assessing the impacts of population, affluence,
synthetic pesticides to technological change, withtechnology and other factors on the environment is a
increased consumption per capita and increased useful way to ground the debate about driving forces
population each responsible for a smaller share in thein stronger theory and empirical evidence.
increased value of I—here the use of synthetic
pesticides. A Reformulation of the IP AT Model
The key problem with this approach is that the
relationship is definitional. Once three of the Despite the paucity of strong evidence
variables are fixed, the fourth is also fixed. Thus regarding the effects of population and economic
Ehrlich and Holdren (1972:369-371) suggest that growth on the environment, strong conclusions about
Commoner's calculations underestimate the effect of the relative importance of the driving forces still
population on the environment by attributing to the T appear. For example, a recent, unprecedented joint
term changes that could more properly be allocated to statement by the Royal Society of London and the
P or A. The accounting model is useful for U.S. National Academy of Sciences (1992) asserts
developing efficiency or intensity measures but does that population growth is a major threat to human
not provide an adequate basis for testing hypotheses well-being, but there is little empirical evidence to
about the human driving forces of environmental support their claim (Stern 1993). In order to move
change. the debate to more solid ground, it will be necessary
The third approach uses historical or cross to reformulate the IP AT model in six ways.20 First
sectional data on I, P, A and T to assess impacts. In it must be considered a stochastic model rather than
its simplest application, this approach uses simple an accounting scheme so that it can be used to test
graphs of bivariate relationships between I and hypotheses. Second, it would be helpful to employ
driving forces or of historical trends in I and driving a variety of indicators of environmental impact and
forces. (Bilsborrow 1992; Bilsborrow and Geores consider the possibility of creating general indices
1991; Peierls et al. 1991; Simon 1981). More from individual indicators. Third, modeling should
sophisticated formulate stochastic models of impact as incorporate effects of the rate or pace of growth, of
a function of independent variables. Stochastic population distribution and of the composition of the
models have substantial advantages, as we will note population in addition to the effects of population
below. But they have seen little use to date. For size. Rate or pace of growth, distribution and
example, in Ridker (1972), only one paper uses this composition may have greater environmental impacts
approach. Hoch's analysis (1972) uses regression than size per se. Fourth, alternatives to gross
models to estimate the effects of the population size national and gross domestic product including
and density of U.S. urban areas on air pollution distributional measures should be considered as
levels, wages and crime rates. His analysis fits into measures of affluence. Fifth, technology needs to be
a small tradition that attempts to determine urban size assessed directly, rather than as the residual of the
effects in sociology, geography and economics accounting format. One approach should incorporate
(Applebaum 1978; Appelbaum et al. 1976; Duncan operational measures of technology, such as the
1951; Singer 1972). He finds that both population efficiency of energy conversion. Another should
size and density have adverse effects on his reconceptualize technology to include a variety of
dependent variables. candidate driving factors that influence how human
The stochastic modeling (S/M) approach has activity effects the environment, including culture,
been used most often in studies of deforestation social structure and institutional arrangements. Sixth,
(Allen and Barnes 1985; Dietz et al. 1991; Rudel because the various driving forces interact in complex
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ways, it ultimately will be necessary to move from a the four variables for one or a few observational
single equation model—one that estimates only direct units. But the advantage of this stochastic
effects net of other variables in the model— to a reformulation is that it converts the IP AT accounting
model into what is certainly the most standard
systems model that estimates both direct and indirect
formulation for quantitative social research—the
effects of driving forces. That is, the model must
acknowledge that the driving forces influence eachgeneral linear model. As a result, the substantial
other, as illustrated in the POET model. While somearray of statistical tools used in quantitative social
of the earliest formulations of the IPAT model
research can be applied to the problem of assessing
the importance of each of the driving forces.
acknowledge this (e.g. Ehrlich and Holdren 1971,
1972; Holdren and Ehrlich 1974), there has been Assertions
no about the driving forces can be converted
elaboration of how these interactions may work.into hypotheses that are specific to the impact (e.g.
CO, loads) and the spatial (e.g. nation states) and
With all these modifications, it may seem that
temporal (e.g. a decade) context under study. The
the IPAT model is being abandoned altogether.
stochastic version preserves the original model
Eventually, the elaboration of theory about the forces
driving anthropogenic environmental change maybecause
lead the accounting model is nothing more than a
special case in which a=b=c=d=e=l.21 Early tests
to models that have little relationship to IPAT. But
IPAT is a useful starting point for theory buildingof the reformulated stochastic version of IP AT can be
undertaken by operationalizing the components with
and testing for three reasons. First, any viable theory
of anthropogenic environmental change must considerreadily available indicators for well-defined social
units, such as the nation state. For example, first
population, affluence and technology as determinants
approximations of the relative effects on a given
of environmental change. There are other potentially
important driving forces and that may have strong impact (I), such as yearly C02 loads, could be
direct or indirect effects (Stern et al. 1992). Butassessed
P, by plugging total population (P), gross
A and T, almost everyone would agree, must be national
part product per capita (A), and energy efficiency
of any serious effort to understand human impacts (T) on
into the model. Or the model could be estimated
the environment. Second, the IPAT model is at the with the exact same operational indicators, except for
heart of debates regarding the driving forces. technology (T), which can be treated as a residual
Research that elaborates on it is more likelyterm.to Indeed, work in progress takes these various
approaches
influence those debates than research that rejects it. (Dietz and Rosa 1994).
Third, the IPAT model forms a general framework A key consideration in the application of the
that can structure both research and discussion, reformulated
thus IPAT is the proper units of analysis.
providing a means for integrating disparate Previous applications of the IPAT model have used
literatures. data for a single country at two or three points in
time. Simulation/ projection models have been
A Stochastic Reformulation applied more widely: to single countries, to the world
as an aggregate, and to world regions. The
The IPAT model can easily be reformulatedstochastic reformulation we suggest allows even
in stochastic form: broader scope for units of analysis. The world as a
I=ApbAcTde whole should be considered at least for exploratory
where I, P, A and T remain environmental impact,efforts.22 But because of the limited data available,
population size, per capita economic activity and
and the marginal quality of some of what is available,
impact per unit economic activity. Now a, b, c, andmost analyses must rely either on the nation-states or
d are parameters and e a residual term. Data on on I, subnational units such as states, provinces or
P, A and T can be used to estimate a, b, c, d and counties,
e as a unit of analysis. Broad cross-sectional
analyses have long been used for comparative
using standard statistical methods such as regression
analysis in economics, political science and sociology
analysis and its kin. This reformulation of the model
(e.g. Bollen et al. 1993; Jackman 1985; Mazur and
requires multiple observations (over units, over time
or both) on I, P, A and T. This is an important Rosa 1974). These can be supplemented by
individual country time series analyses where data are
distinction from the accounting model where one term
is derived from the values of the other three. The available, and by pooled cross-section time series
accounting model only requires data on any three of analysis when short time series are available for a
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moderate number of cross-sectional units. The cross more flawed), other measurements such as
national and pooled approaches offer the critically atmospheric gas concentrations are very reliable.
important advantage of contextualizing the IPAT Work on the BPAT model should eventually move
model—that is, of acknowledging that the effects of toward the use of variables that describe the physical
driving forces may vary over time and across nations and biological systems of concern, not just the human
or regions. Time series, cross-sectional and pooled inputs to those systems. Only by studying the links
data sets allow the estimation of models in which the can we expect to monitor and understand the non
coefficients of a model change over time, across linear responses that are so troubling.
cross-sectional units or both (Judge et al 1980). This Creating an impact indicator. Most studies
permits analyses that are sensitive to the effects of to date have examined only one or a few impacts.
socio-economic structure and social, economic and When comparisons are made using a single indicator,
technological change on the relationship between results may be misleading due to the "Netherlands"
driving forces and environmental change. Indeed, we effect (Ehrlich and Holdren 1971, 1972).23 Much of
believe a major advantage of the stochastic model is the environmental impact of a nation state may be
that it places work on driving forces squarely in the displaced across its borders due to the mix of imports
methodological tradition of quantitative social science, and exports and to the international division of labor.
and invites the application of a powerful repertoire of This can be compensated for in part by taking
well-developed tools. account of imports and exports of high environmental
consequence.
Reformulating I The single indicator approach also is flawed
because it ignores substitutions within a social
Examining impacts rather than human system. For example, a nation might have relatively
activity. Most research on human driving forces has low C02 emissions per unit affluence because it
taken measures of human inputs into the natural makes extensive use of nuclear and/or hydroelectric
environment as the impact measure rather than power rather than fossil fuels. But the disposal of
examining the resultant environmental change. Thus nuclear waste and the disruption of riparian
in the example noted above, Commoner (1992) ecosystems are also environmental problems.
examines the use or production of inorganic nitrogen Therefore an adequate environmental indicator should
fertilizer, synthetic organic pesticides, synthetic fibers take account of such trade-off effects as well as the
and phosphorous based detergents rather than the possibility of displacing impacts.
effects of these compounds on human health or on In the social sciences it is commonplace to
ecosystem structure and function. Ehrlich and have problems of measurement where no single
Holdren (1971, 1972; Holdren and Ehrlich 1974; indicator is adequate to capture a concept, where each
Holdren 1991) have examined energy consumption indicator is subject to measurement error and where
rather than environmental effects of energy use. there is no obvious a priori method for assigning
Similarly most work on greenhouse climate change weights to indicators. Standard measurement theory
uses C02 emissions rather than the change in can be used to develop multi-dimensional models of
atmospheric concentration of C02 (Dietz and Rosa environmental impact. Also, environmental impacts
1994). The use of human action as an impact can be treated as latent variables, while specific
measure is a reasonable first approximation, and to indicators such as C02 emissions, tropical wood
some extent dictated by the availability of data on imports or species endangerment serve as observed
human activities and paucity of data on actual indicators or proxies linked to the latent variables.
environmental change. But it does have the Standard structural equation modeling methods allow
disadvantage of ignoring the capacity of natural tests of hypotheses about the links between latent
systems to absorb impacts, and the (probably non variables and manifest indices and the construction of
linear) limits of those abilities. Over the last decade, indicators that pool individual measures (Bollen
there has been a sharp increase in the availability of 1989). Analyses of this type will aid in the detection
data on the natural environment. While some of this of tradeoffs among types of impact and can assess the
data are of only poor to moderate quality (for role of impact displacements in a nation's overall
example data on deforestation rates are notoriously effect on the global environment.
unreliable, and data for extinction rates are even
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Reformulating P National income figures, especially gross
national product per capita or gross domestic product
Most examinations of population impacts use per capita, are the usual measures of economic
population size as the indicator of that driving force. activity in EPAT models, although some simulations
This oversimplifies population impacts in a number of use output disaggregated by sector of the economy.25
important ways. First, the distribution of population For assessing the effects of economic growth on the
may be as important or even more important than environment, these very standard and relatively well
size and needs to be considered (see, for example, measured variables are appropriate. But the last few
Day and Day 1973). A few studies of deforestation decades have also seen criticisms of these indicators
have examined the impact of rural population growth, as measures of human welfare. Other indicators of
population density and intra-national migration (Allen welfare, such as health, don't always correlate highly
and Barnes 1985; Dietz et al. 1991; Rudel 1991). with economic measures (Mazur and Rosa 1974; Sen
Hoch's (1972) work considers urban density. But 1993). A number of alternatives have been proposed,
more sustained work on impacts due to the spatial such as the "physical quality of life index" (PQLI)
distribution of population deserves a high priority in that combines infant mortality, literacy and life
IP AT analyses. expectancy (Morris 1979; London and Williams
Second, because children may produce 1988). An important line of sociological research has
substantially less impact than adults, age structure of shown that welfare is no longer tightly coupled to
the population should also be considered in assessing energy consumption (Mazur and Rosa 1974; Rosa,
population impacts. As the populations of the low Keating and Staples 1980; Olsen 1992). Preliminary
fertility nations of the world (the most affluent work suggests that for a number of nations COz
nations, the newly industrializing nations and some emissions have also decoupled from welfare, while
exceptional non-industrial nations) grow older, the correlation persists in other industrial nations
resource consumption patterns may shift radically. (Rosa and Krebill-Prather 1993). Work has also
We know, for example, that age/cohort is one of the begun to develop alternative measures of economic
best predictors of environmental concern in the U.S. activity that correct gross production for consumption
(Jones and Dunlap 1992) In the high fertility nations, of non-renewable resources, military spending and
the next few decades will see very sharp increases in other activities perceived as neither renewable or
the number of people in dependent age groups and productive.26 All this work, critical of standard
even sharper increases in the size of the population national economic accounts as indicators of human
forming families and seeking work. welfare, suggests that alternatives to gross domestic
Third, and perhaps most important, the pace or national product should be explored as measures of
of population growth influences a nation's ability to affluence.
develop innovations and institutions. The research The disadvantage of the PQLI and similar
on population and human welfare reviewed above measures is that their units are quite arbitrary (Sen
suggests that population growth is only a moderate 1993). A better alternative to measuring affluence
detriment to human welfare and resource adequacy. lies in life expectancy at birth. Life expectancy at
This research also notes that the more rapid the birth is a function of the age specific mortality rates
growth, the more likely the effects are to be occurring in a population, and thus can reasonably be
detrimental and that very rapid growth can be very interpreted as a key quality of life indicator.27 Life
detrimental (see especially U.S. National Academy of expectancy has the additional advantage that, when
Sciences 1971). Very rapid growth exacerbates the multiplied by population, the product represents the
kind of socio-economic disarticulation proposed by number of years of life that can be expected for
Amin (1974, 1976, 1977; Stokes and Anderson members of a nation under their current living
1990). Thus it is plausible to hypothesize that the conditions. Thus it holds a strong parallel to the
pace of population growth will in itself contribute to multiplication in the IP AT model of population by
environmental impact over and above any effects of economic activity per capita to produce total
population size.24 economic activity.
Reformulating A. Reformulating T.
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Most students of environmental issues would environmental change, and a number of ways to
acknowledge that it is reasonable to examine the role operationalize each. Parsimony suggests a sharp
of population and affluence in generating delimitation and therefore we propose the following
environmental impact, whatever may be the relative concepts and operationalizations.
importance of these two factors. But most social Culture. Culture has been posited as a
scientists are frustrated by the truncated vision of the driving force of environmental change at least since
rest of the world offered by the T in the IP AT White's (1967) essay. While the argument for
model. As noted above, if IP AT is treated as an cultural forces is plausible, existing evidence is
accounting model, then the normal practice is to solve equivocal (Tuan 1968). We suggest three
for T. In that sense T captures not just technology in operationalizations. First, public opinion data
the narrow sense, but everything else not included in measuring environmental values and attitudes for a
the model: attitudes, values, institutional number of nations (circa 1991) are available from the
arrangements etc. of the population. All of these recent Gallup "Health of the Planet Survey" (Dunlap
must be considered as driving forces.28 et al. 1993). These can be used to develop a crude
The stochastic model estimates the effect of T indicator of public environmental concern. Such
independent of I, P and A. Generating these concern may influence technological choice.
estimates first requires an operational definition of T. Second, social movements are a principal
Once accomplished, researchers can offer specific mechanisms by which public concern is translated
hypotheses about T and test those hypotheses with the into policy, and thus one of the means by which the
operational indicators. For example, the common environmental impacts of nations and regions are
hypothesis that values are key determinant of transformed (Brulle 1993). Dietz and Kalof (1992)
environmental impact can be tested using cross have developed a measure of environmentalism for
national or time series data on indicators of values, nation states and find it related to some measures of
such as environmental attitudes. Arguments that a state action on the environment. But there are few
shift to a service economy will reduce environmental empirical comparisons of the environmental
impacts can be tested using data on the distribution of movement across a diversity of nations. We would
labor or gross product across economic sectors. expect that a strong environmental movement would,
Ultimately, it is possible to substitute a vector of ceteris paribus, lead to polices that reduce the
cultural, political and social structural variables for T environmental impact of consumption and population.
and examine the net effect of each on I. To do so, Third, the cultural history of a nation may
we must develop a human ecological model of shape current actions toward the environment. Since
environmental impact. White (1967) posited religion as a critical determinant
of environmental impact, religious heritage of a
A Human Ecological Model of nation is a candidate indicator. The recent work by
Environmental Impact Lenski and Nolan (Lenski and Nolan 1984; Lenski
1986; Nolan and Lenski 1985) on the technological/
We have argued that the BPAT model is a ecological heritage of a nation suggests that pre
useful framework for directing the investigation of colonial mode of agriculture may continue to have
anthropogenic environmental impacts. Such important ramifications for social and economic
investigations are likely to shed light on an issue that organization.
more often attracts heat. Yet, it is also useful to Political Economy. Many scholars have
think beyond EPAT. We are so far from a fully suggested that political economy is a key determinant
articulated model of environmental impact that many of environmental impact. The problem is finding a
may despair and retreat to the relatively robust initial conceptualization of political economy that is
formulation of IP AT. But population and affluence sufficiently parsimonious that it can be
effects cannot be properly estimated if they are operationalized. We suggest three dimensions:
included in a model that is badly mis-specified. Thus position in the global economy, democracy and
it is useful to propose some first steps towards a government involvement in the economy.
social model of environmental impact. There are a The two most commonly used concepts of
number of variables that can be reasonably position in the global economy are investment
hypothesized to influence anthropogenic dependence and position in the world system. A
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small literature has examined the impacts of fosters efficiency, substitution and innovation. To
dependency and world system position on the account for such simultaneity, it may be useful to
environment (WP and Frey 1990; Bunker 1984, imbed the stochastic version of IPAT in a larger
1985; Evans 1979; Hecht 1985; Rudel 1989). It structural model that allows all elements of the
suggests that adverse environmental impacts will be expanded EPAT model to effect each other over time.
greatest in nations that are dependent and in the As noted above, the effects of independent
periphery of the world economy. Other arguments variables on environmental impacts may vary across
suggest that institutional arrangements may have an contexts. A series of methods allow for increasingly
important influence on environmental quality. complex models of this variation. The time series
Congleton (1990) reviews these arguments, and and pooled methods noted above, as well as
suggest that democratic governments may be more generalized least squares applied to correct for
concerned with environmental quality than heteroscedasticity in cross-sectional models capture
authoritarian governments. There may also be a variation over time and across units in disturbance
relationship between government involvement in the terms. Dummy variables (multipliers in the
economy and environmental degradation, but the multiplicative form) allow for shift effects across
direction of the effect is difficult to predict. units. Interaction models allow parameters to vary
Social Structure. The social structure of a across units. Time-varying coefficient models can be
nation may also have an influence on environmentalapplied with long time series to estimate secular
impact. For example, the likely mechanism is that trends in the effects of the independent variables,
poverty and inequality reduce concern with though we anticipate that the time series available for
environmental quality (Inglehart 1990). Recent these analyses are not sufficiently long to allow the
analyses by Dunlap et al. (1993) do not support the use of this method. Our general point is that a
presumed relationship between a nation's economic stochastic version of the IPAT model allows the
prosperity adn environmental concerns, but further application of a rich array of conceptual and
analysis is needed. Poverty is to some extent statistical tools.
captured by national product per capita. But
distribution of income and land may be more Conclusions
important that aggregate income. Amin's (1974,
1976, 1977; Stokes and Anderson 1990) concept of We wish to emphasize that standard social
disarticulation is closely related to inequality (it is science research methods can take us a long way
usually conceptualized as sectoral inequality) and is towards better understanding of the human driving
likely to have a strong link to environmental impact. forces of environmental change. What we lack are
Finally, there is substantial evidence for gender theoretical frameworks that adequately conceptualize
differences in environmental concern at the individual human-environment interactions. We believe the
level (Stern et al. 1993), and this may translate into IPAT model, despite its limitations, provides a usef
a link between gender stratification and the starting point for developing a better framework a
environmental policy of nation-states. for structuring empirical tests of competing
Model Structure. Of course, there is no arguments.
reason to limit analysis to a single equation that The recognition that humans are having
estimates only net effects. The stochastic approachuntoward impacts on the bio-physical environment, a
allows estimates of the effects of driving forces on perception once confined to the industrial nations, has
each other and thus can take account of direct effects
now reached virtually the entire globe (Dunlap et al.
(e.g. the effects of affluence on C02 emissions1993). No one would deny the importance of
directly via consumption of fossil fuels in deepening our understanding of the anthropogenic
transportation) and indirect effects (e.g. the effect of linkages and causes of environmental impacts. But
affluence on C02 emissions indirectly by lowering while there is a singular vision of a common
fertility and thus reducing long term population size). destination, there continues to be considerable debate
Such simultaneous equation models underpin the about the best route to get there. Part of the debate
analysis of the link between population growth and stems from the "trained incapacity" of scholars
human welfare. In these models growth generates working within a discipline to recognize affinities in
scarcity, which in turn generates a price signal that other disciplines, and part stems from the fact that a
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defining feature of different disciplines is a NOTES
difference in metatheoretical assumptions. Such
tacitly accepted presuppositions about the proper 1. This work was supported in part by U.S.
approach to comprehending a problem allow National Science Foundation grants SES
knowledge to advance within a domain of inquiry, 9109928 and SES-9311593, by the Northern
but block attempts to integrate and to learn at the Virginia Survey Research Laboratory of
interface between disciplines. Split-level dialogues George Mason University and by the Dean of
between the social and biological sciences on the the College of Liberal Arts at Washington
topic of population growth have been taking place for State University. We thank William Catton,
over a century. This is precisely why an integrative, Don Clark, Riley Dunlap and Linda Kalof for
human ecological approach is needed. their very helpful comments on an earlier
In this paper we have suggested that the IP AT draft.
model provides a useful, if fallible compass for
setting us on our journey toward a deeper 2. The history of research on the link between
understanding of anthropogenic environmental change population and human welfare recently has
than we possess at present. The model is simple, been given thoughtful review by Keyfitz
systematic and robust: simple because it incorporates (1991a,b, 1993). See also Overbeek (1977)
key anthropogenic driving forces with parsimony; and Teitelbaum and Winter (1989).
systematic because it specifies the mathematical
relationship between the driving forces and their 3. Heroditus further writes that during this
impacts; and robust because it is applicable to a wide period the method of adjustment of the
variety of environmental impacts. We have Lydians was to invent a number of games,
suggested a reformulation of the model to stochastic including dice, and "to engage in games one
form, so that it can be tested readily with day entirely so as not to feel any craving for
conventional statistical procedures. First food, and the next day to eat and abstain from
approximations for some impacts, such as C02 games" ("The History. Book 1:22) Eventually,
emissions and deforestation, can be obtained because scarcities continued and conditions
immediately with the application of these statistical worsened, the King decreed that half the
procedures to available data. We also recognize that population should emigrate to Smyrna, the
key challenges for the model remain, such as the choice of movers and stayers determined by
choice of the most appropriate indicators for the lot. Thus Heroditus tells us something about
model's primary variables and limitations on the not only population and resources, but also
availability of relevant data as well as quality about the role of risk and uncertainty in
problems on existing data. We adumbrate some human affairs.
strategies for meeting these challenges. Our keen
intent in this effort has been to prod us on the 4. Lucius Annaeus Seneca, c. 4 B.C.-65 A.D.,
journey toward a deeper understanding of one of the the second son of the Roman educator and
most challenging intellectual problems of our age: author, Seneca the Elder, is considered the
anthropogenic environmental change. most brilliant thinker and writer of his time,
the age of Nero.
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5. The contributions of Malthus, while usually 10. More recent studies that reach the same
acknowledged, have been overshadowed by general conclusion include Ahlburg (1987
Adam Smith, David Ricardo, John Stuart Mill Binswanger and Pingali (1985), Hay ami an
and others. John Maynard Keynes, an ardent Ruttan (1987a, b), Kelley (1988), King
admirer of Malthus, sought to correct this (1987), Mason (1987), McNicoll (1984),
historical neglect. Calling him "the first of Pingali and Binswanger (1987), Ridker (1979)
the Cambridge economists" (1933:144), and Srinivasan (1987, 1988). While these
Keynes was unabashed in his praise for studies differ in the sectors of the economy
Malthus: "If only Malthus, instead of modelled, the nations or regions considered
Ricardo, had been the parent stem from which and the methods employed, the findings are
nineteenth-century economics proceeded, what remarkably robust and remain roughly
a much wiser and richer place the world consistent with the general findings of Coale
would be today" (1933:120). and Hoover (1958).
6. Wallace's independent discovery of evolution 11. Closely related to this argument is the early
through natural selection was also inspired by work of Geertz (1963) on "agricultural
a reading of Malthus. Note that the phrase involution" and the "induced innovation"
"survival of the fittest" was developed by the analysis of Ruttan and his collaborators
sociologist Herbert Spencer, rather than by (Binswanger and Ruttan 1978; Hay ami and
Darwin. In some sense, Spencer was one of Ruttan 1987a, b; see also the classic treatment
the last scholars who had major influence by Hicks (1932) and its revival by Fellner
within a discipline who could also be (1961) and Kennedy (1964)). It is interesting
considered interdisciplinary or to note the Simon (1981) seems unaware of
transdisciplinary. Unfortunately, one of his Geertz's detailed analysis of agricultural
legacies is "Social Darwinism," recently development in Java and the problems
revisited as a "vulgar sociobiology." This associated with it. He also does not cite any
crude caricature of Darwin's thought has of the key work on induced innovation even
given a bad name to the evolutionary thinking though that work provides a rigorous model
that is essential to form adequate links for some of the effects he posits.
between the social and biological sciences
(Burns and Dietz 1992; Dietz et al. 1990; 12. Again, this literature is vast, incorporating
Rosa 1979) much of resource economics and of research
on common property resources. The classic
7. As we will see later in the discussion, the lack reference on resource economics is Barnett
of motivation may stem from the typical use and Morse (1963). More recent reviews
of the model as an accounting equation, which include Dasgupta and Heal (1979), MacKellar
is true by definition, thereby making statistical and Vining (1987), Repetto (1986), Ridker
testing unnecessary. (1979) and Slade (1987). Common property
issues are reviewed in Ostrom (1990).
8. See, for example King (1987), U.S. National
Research Council (1986), Schultz (1987),
United Nations (1973), World Bank (1984).
9. For modifications and elaborations of the

POET framework, see Dunlap et al. (1994).
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13. Normative issues enter into discussions of the 15. Of course, those who argue that rapid
environment in subtle ways. The term population growth is very harmful emphasize
degradation implies a change from a more the problem of tipping points and non
desirable to a less desirable state. In linearities. Current data and models may be
economic analysis, the desirability of a state
derived from experience with a linear part of
of the environment must be considered in a relationship that is actually non-linear. If
terms of the ability of that state to produce the biosphere or specific ecosystems are
utility through its use in production processes, approaching asymptotes or discontinuities, key
its existence value, or some other function relationships embedded in existing models will
related to human welfare. The environmental change abruptly. Under such conditions
changes of current political concern, such as existing models may not be an adequate guide
climate change, ozone depletion, loss of to the future.
biodiversity, accumulation of toxics, etc. are
usually discussed in terms of their adverse 16. For a recent review of such models, see Toth,
effects on human welfare. But there is a Hizsnyik and Clark (1989).
philosophical position that argues some states
of the environment have intrinsic worth 17. The forumla is directly related to the energy
independent of humans (e.g. Devall and efficiency of a nation. Energy efficiency is
Sessions 1985; see also Stern et al 1993; (P*A)/T or 1/1.
Dietz 1992). The issue is further complicated
by differences in preferences. For example, 18. In particular, Mazur differentiates the
some may consider an undisturbed wilderness following identity:
the ideal recreational site, others may prefer De=edP + Pde,
walkways or roads to make access more where E equals total energy consumption, e is
convenient. per capita energy consumption and P equals
In this discussion we will avoid these total population.
thorny issues by focusing on environmental
changes that are part of the global 19. Between 1950 and 1987 the percent increase
environmental change complex: greenhouse is 484% (Commoner 1992:85-86).
climate change, ozone depletion, species loss,
dispersal of toxics. It may be that the actual
effects on human welfare of some of these
changes are minimal (e.g. Nordhaus, 1992)
but all are considered at least potential threats
to both the "state of nature" and human
welfare.
14. The literature on "optimal pollution" follows

this logic. The classic works that underpin
this approach are Pigou (1920) and Coase
(1960). See Baumol (1988) or Randall (1987)
for a more recent discussion. Note that
although Coase provides an argument about
how efficient levels of externalities like
pollution might be achieved, he offers no
proof that these mechanisms actually operate.
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20. Doubtless that some scholars will be chary to 21. If T is derived as L/PA as in the accounting
the use of such a simplified model to capture model and entered into the regression, the
the myriad factors—with complex linkages and estimated values for a, b, c, d, and e will
feedbacks—underlying anthropogenic equal 1 and the R2 value will also equal 1.
environmental change. On the one hand, we This indicates the limit of the accounting
are sympathetic to and share that caution. On model. It assumes each driving force has
the other hand, we note that many scientific equal impact in the sense that the elasticity
endeavors begin with first approximations (the percentage change in I accompanying a
based upon crude heuristics and, further, that percentage change in P, A, or T) of the
many scientists accept Ockam's razor as a driving forces are assumed equal. For
useful convention for proceeding with their example, a 1 % change in population is
work. assumed to produce a 1 % change in impact.
Models are, after all, crude
approximations to reality. They are 22. While global level time series analyses may
abstractions of the real world that are stated in seem the ideal method, the data quality and
sufficient detail to be realistic but have methodological problems are formidable. Data
omitted the inessential detail that would are limited, most of the interesting time series
complicate them needlessly and stiffle data are highly collinear, and for some
generalization. They are neither categorically variables (for example, energy intensity of the
correct nor incorrect, but serve as vehicles for world economy) year to year fluctuations are
focusing our attention in a disciplined way. more likely a result of measurement error
Stated in analytic form, such as mathematics, than real structural change. In addition, lack
they permit a systematic examination of the of attention to problems of functional form
relationships postulated by the model. and cointegration can lead to spurious
Expectations about models conjure the inferences (Engle and Granger 1991). Global
time-worn image of the blind scholars feeling analysis aggregates across contexts and thus
around an elephant. The ideal model would may miss important influences of institutions,
simultaneously maximize generality, realism culture and the political economy that are
and precision. Unfortunately, it is literally context specific. While the stochastic model
impossible for a model to simultaneously does not make these problems disappear, its
maximize all three at once. This unavoidable engagement with an existing methodological
fact prompted Levins (1966) to suggest the literature makes us aware of pitfalls that might
following set of compromises: (1) sacrifice otherwise trap unwary researchers.
generality to realism and precision; (2)
sacrifice realism to generality and precision; 23. The term "Netherlands effect" derives from
or (3) sacrifice precision to realism and the fact that the environmental impacts for
generality. Our argument for the utility of the nations such as Holland appear to be low for
IP AT model in understanding anthropogenic their level of population and affluence. This
environmental change is one that begins with is because international trade places the
Levin's compromise (2), then hopes to impacts of some Dutch consumption
elaborate our understanding by modifying the elsewhere (e.g. deforestation to produce wood
model to accommodate compromises (1) and does not take place within Dutch borders;
(3). pesticide use on food crops takes place in food
exporting nations rather than in Holland,
etc.).
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24. It appears that in the 21st century migration 28. Ehrlich and Holdren (1972, 1972; Holdren
will continue to be a very important and Ehrlich 1974) are aware of the complexity
determinant of population change. Migration of T, but little has been done to elucidate the
can lead to very rapid transformations of complexity of this part of the model. We
population size, distributions and structure. have little social theory to suggest how to
Thus migrations streams may have a critical specify and measure T.
effects on the environment. And in turn, some
migration is certainly driven by environmental
conditions—migration may be the most REFERENCES
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25. The original logic of the IP AT model uses the Nations: The Evidence from Macroeconomic
term "affluence" as a convenient abbreviation Demographic Models." Pp. 479-522 in
for consumption patterns and some measure of Population Growth and Economic
national income as the indicator of affluence. Development: Issues and Evidence. Madison,
It is clearly consumption patterns and the Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin Press.
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environmental impact. Here we are Allen, Julia C., and Douglas F. Barnes. 1985. "Th
suggesting two ways of reconceptualizing A. Causes of Deforestation in Developing
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Dietz RethinkingEnvironmentalImpacts 1994

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Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population, Affluence and Technology

Author(s): Thomas Dietz and Eugene A. Rosa

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/24706840

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Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population,

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consequence, the IPAT model stifles efforts toward E = Environment

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(per capita activity multiplied by population) and T = I/(P*A).

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9. For modifications and elaborations of the

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14. The literature on "optimal pollution" follows

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Barnett, Harold, and C. Morse. 1963. Scarcity and

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Washington, DC: The World Bank.

and Development. Baltimore, Maryland: The

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Dasgupta, P. S., and G. M. Heal. 1979. Economic

Dietz, Thomas, Tom R. Burns and Frederick H. . 1981."An Economist in Wonderland."

"Environmentalism among Nation-States."

1991. "On the Utility of Robust and

Dietz, Thomas, and Eugene A. Rosa. 1994. The

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Holdren, John. 1991. "Population and the Energy

Berkeley, California: University of California

Population Reports 10:1-31.

Hayami, Yujiro, and Vernon W. Ruttan. 1987a.

Agricultural Productivity." Pp. 57-101 in

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Population-Development Interaction." Pp.

Kolsrud, Gretchen, and Barbara Boyle Torrey. 1991.

Meadows, Donella H., Dennis L. Meadows, Jorge

Mesorvic, Mihalto, and Eduardo Pestel. 1974.

This content downloaded from

Nolan, Patrick D. and Gerhard Lenski. 1985.

Controlling Greenhouse Gases." Science

O'Connor, James. 1988. "Capitalism, Nature,

234 in Lee Freese (ed.) Advances in Human

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"Resources, Environment and Population:

. 1981b. "Environmental Disruption or

on Human Dimensions of Global Change, Quarterly 63:181-185.

Royal Society of London, and U.S. National

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National Academy Press.

World Resources Institute. 1992. World Resources.