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 Elections Without Democracy

THE MENU
OF MANIPULATION
Andreas Schedler

Andreas Schedler is professor of political science at the Facultad

Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO) in Mexico City. He
chairs the Committee on Concepts and Methods of the International
Political Science Association (www.concepts-methods.org). His current
research focuses on the Mexican transition from electoral authoritarian-
ism in comparative perspective.

The idea of democracy has become so closely identified with elections

that we are in danger of forgetting that the modern history of representa-
tive elections is a tale of authoritarian manipulations as much as it is a
saga of democratic triumphs. Historically, in other words, elections have
been an instrument of authoritarian control as well as a means of demo-
cratic governance.
Since the early days of the “third wave” of global democratization, it
has been clear that transitions from authoritarian rule can lead anywhere.
Over the past quarter-century, many have led to the establishment of
some form of democracy. But many others have not. They have given
birth to new forms of authoritarianism that do not fit into our classic
categories of one-party, military, or personal dictatorship. They have
produced regimes that hold elections and tolerate some pluralism and
interparty competition, but at the same time violate minimal democratic
norms so severely and systematically that it makes no sense to classify
them as democracies, however qualified. These electoral regimes do not
represent limited, deficient, or distorted forms of democracy. They are
instances of authoritarian rule. The time has come to abandon mislead-
ing labels and to take their nondemocratic nature seriously.1
Electoral authoritarian regimes neither practice democracy nor resort
regularly to naked repression. By organizing periodic elections they try
to obtain at least a semblance of democratic legitimacy, hoping to satisfy
external as well as internal actors. At the same time, by placing those
elections under tight authoritarian controls they try to cement their con-

Journal of Democracy Volume 13, Number 2 April 2002

Andreas Schedler 37

tinued hold on power. Their dream is to reap the fruits of electoral legiti-
macy without running the risks of democratic uncertainty. Balancing
between electoral control and electoral credibility, they situate themselves
in a nebulous zone of structural ambivalence. Delimiting the blurry fron-
tiers of electoral authoritarianism cannot help but be a complex and
controversial task. Perhaps the best way to get a handle on the problem
is take a fresh look at the normative presuppositions that underlie the idea
of democratic elections.
But what does “democracy” mean in this context? How sharp is the
distinction between “democratic” and “authoritarian” regimes? Political
democracy, some argue, is not a matter of “either/or” but of more or less:
Democracy is not simply present or absent, but admits of degrees. Oth-
ers object that a qualitative difference separates democracy from
authoritarianism. Authoritarian regimes are not less democratic than
democracies, but plainly undemocratic. While debate over these issues
among scholars and practitioners has been polemical and inconclusive,
the idea of electoral authoritarianism combines insights from both per-
spectives. It introduces gradation while retaining the idea of thresholds.

The Foggy Zone

Most regimes today are neither clearly democratic nor fully authori-
tarian. They inhabit the wide and foggy zone between liberal democracy
and closed authoritarianism. To order this universe of ambiguous regimes
some authors have been working with broad intermediate categories like
“democratizing regime” or “semidemocracy.” Others have been develop-
ing lists of more specific “diminished subtypes” such as “illiberal” or
“delegative” democracy. Here, I propose to fill the conceptual space
between the opposite poles of liberal democracy and closed authoritari-
anism with two symmetrical categories: electoral democracy and electoral
authoritarianism. The resulting fourfold typology captures significant
variation in the broad area between the poles without abandoning the idea
that a meaningful distinction may be drawn between democratic and
authoritarian regimes.
The distinction between liberal and electoral democracies derives from
the common idea that elections are a necessary but not a sufficient con-
dition for modern democracy. Such a regime cannot exist without
elections, but elections alone are not enough. While liberal democracies
go beyond the electoral minimum, electoral democracies do not. They
manage to “get elections right” but fail to institutionalize other vital di-
mensions of democratic constitutionalism, such as the rule of law,
political accountability, bureaucratic integrity, and public deliberation.
The distinction between electoral democracy and electoral authoritari-
anism builds upon the common affirmation that democracy requires
elections, but not just any kind of elections. The idea of democratic self-
38 Journal of Democracy

government is incompatible with electoral farces. In the common phras-

ing, elections must be “free and fair” in order to pass as democratic.
Under electoral democracy, contests comply with minimal democratic
norms; under electoral authoritarianism, they do not.
At present, most authoritarian regimes hold some sort of elections. But
not all such contests are created equal. It is the nature of these contests
that divides electoral authoritarianism from closed authoritarianism.
Some are shams that nobody can take seriously; others are occasions of
struggle that nobody can ignore. Moreover, as soon as elections cross a
hard-to-specify but real threshold of openness and competitiveness, they
tend to take on a life of their own. The threshold may be ill defined and
its exact position may vary over time and across cases. But once a regime
moves beyond it, elections stop being shams and start playing “enough
of a role in the constitution of power” to compel both rulers and opposi-
tion forces “genuinely to care” about them.2
The present essay will primarily survey the contested center of the
continuum, the boundary between electoral democracies and electoral
authoritarianism. It starts from the assumption that a coherent set of
minimal democratic norms exists that any democratic regime must fulfill.
In principle, a regime leaves democratic ground the moment it violates
at least one of the constitutive norms that make elections democratic. At
the outset, though, let us avoid illusions of precision. The idea of a logi-
cal set of democratic norms circumscribes the core issues that must be
addressed by anyone who wishes to set electoral democracies apart from
electoral autocracies. But where empirical reality is fuzzy, no amount of
conceptual sophistication will allow us to draw clear and consensual lines
between regime types. On the contrary, regime boundaries tend to be
blurry and controversial to the extent that their constitutive norms are
idealizations that admit varying degrees of realization in actual political
practice.
Democratic norms are not perfectly realized anywhere, even in ad-
vanced democracies. Access to the electoral arena always has a cost and
is never perfectly equal; the scopes and jurisdictions of elective offices
are everywhere limited; electoral institutions invariably discriminate
against somebody inside or outside the party system; and democratic
politics is never quite sovereign but always subject to societal as well as
constitutional constraints.
Moreover, the distinction between obeying and transgressing
democratic norms is imprecise. There is much room for nuance and am-
bivalence. In politics as in other types of competitive activities, bending
and circumventing the rules may sometimes be considered “part of the
game.” Anyone familiar with the often-messy business of monitoring
elections knows that vote fraud can be a very complicated, shadowy, and
slippery affair that causes domestic and international observers to pull
their hair out by the handful. Much practical knowledge and painstaking
Andreas Schedler 39

TABLE 1—THE CHAIN OF DEMOCRATIC CHOICE

DIMENSIONS OF NORMATIVE PREMISES OF STRATEGIES OF NORM VIOLATION
CHOICE DEMOCRATIC CHOICE
1 The object Empowerment: Democratic • Reserved positions: limiting the scope
of choice elections involve the of elective offices
delegation of decision- • Reserved domains: limiting the
making authority. jurisdiction of elective offices
2 The range Freedom of supply: Citizens • Exclusion of opposition forces:
of choice must be free to form, join, restricting access to the electoral arena
and support conflicting parties, • Fragmentation of opposition forces:
candidates, and policies. disorganizing electoral dissidence
3 The formation Freedom of demand: Citizens • Repression: restricting political and
of preferences must be able to learn about civil liberties
available alternatives through • Unfairness: restricting access to
access to alternative sources media and money
of information.
4 The agents Inclusion: Democracy assigns • Formal disenfranchisement: legal
of choice equal rights of participation suffrage restrictions
to all full members of the • Informal disenfranchisement: practical
political community. suffrage restrictions
5 The expression Insulation: Citizens must be • Coercion: voter intimidation
of preferences free to express their electoral • Corruption: vote buying
preferences.
6 The aggregation Integrity: One person, one • Electoral fraud: “redistributive”
of preferences vote. The democratic ideal of election management
equality demands weighting • Institutional bias: “redistributive”
votes equally. electoral rules
7 The consequences Irreversibility: Elections • Tutelage: preventing elected officers
of choice without consequences do not from exercising their constitutional
qualify as democratic. powers
• Reversal: preventing victors from
taking office, or elected officers from
concluding their constitutional terms

methodological analysis have gone toward devising methods that allow

monitors to distinguish massive fraud from widespread but unsystematic
irregularities, but the results so far are hardly conclusive.
As a consequence, the dual challenge of defining reasonable norma-
tive and empirical thresholds is often a matter of context-sensitive
judgment rather than precise measurement. Difficult cases will continue
to stir up controversy. Still, the existence of foggy zones does not mean
that no meaningful distinctions can be drawn between electoral democ-
racies and electoral autocracies.

The Chain of Democratic Choice

To survey the complex and controversial frontier between electoral
democracy and electoral authoritarianism, it seems fruitful to rely on the
guiding idea that democratic elections are mechanisms of social choice
under conditions of freedom and equality. To qualify as democratic,
elections must offer an effective choice of political authorities among a
community of free and equal citizens. Following Robert Dahl, this demo-
40 Journal of Democracy

cratic ideal requires that all citizens enjoy “unimpaired opportunities”

to “formulate” their political preferences, to “signify” them to one an-
other, and to have them “weighed equally” in public decision making. 3
Building upon Dahl, let us delineate seven conditions that must exist if
regular elections are to fulfill the promise of effective democratic choice.
The ensuing list, summarized in Table 1 on the previous page, covers
every stage from the original structure to the final consequences of voter
choice. Together, these conditions form a metaphorical chain which, like
a real chain, holds together only so long as each of its links remains
whole and unbroken.
1) Empowerment. Political elections are about citizens wielding
power. Voters are not picking beauty-contest winners or answering ques-
tions in marketing surveys. Elections exist to accomplish the binding
selection of the polity’s “most powerful collective decision makers.”4
2) Free supply. The idea of a democratic election presupposes the free
formation of alternatives. Elections “without choice”5 do not qualify as
democratic, and neither do elections with choice confined to a narrow
menu of state-licensed options. The range of available alternatives can-
not be something engineered by a manipulative government, but must be
determined by active citizens themselves within a framework of fair and
universal rules.
3) Free demand. Democratic elections presuppose the free formation
of voter preferences. Citizens who vote on the basis of induced prefer-
ences are no less constrained than those who must choose from a
manipulated set of alternatives. Modern democracy assumes that all citi-
zens, regardless of their schooling or social status, have faculties of
autonomous decision making which are effectively equal in the decisive
political respect. But to use their faculties voters need to know about
available choices, which in turn means they need to have access to plu-
ral sources of information. Unless parties and candidates enjoy free and
fair access to the public space, the will of the people as expressed at the
ballot box will be little more than the echo of structurally induced igno-
rance.
4) Inclusion. In the contemporary world, democracy demands univer-
sal suffrage. Restrictions of the franchise once commonly applied on the
basis of property, education, gender, or ethnicity are not legitimate
anymore. The modern demos includes all adults save those who fall into
special categories such as convicted felons and those afflicted by severe
mental illness.
5) Insulation. Once citizens have freely formed their preferences, they
must be able to express them just as freely. The use of the secret ballot
is designed to shield them from undue outside pressures, whether in the
form of actual or threatened coercion, bribery, or even just the disap-
proval of neighbors.
6) Integrity. Once citizens have given free expression to their will at
Andreas Schedler 41

the polls, competent and neutral election management must count their
votes honestly and weigh them equally. Without bureaucratic integrity
and professionalism, the democratic principle of “one person, one vote”
remains an empty aspiration.
7) Irreversibility. Like elections that begin without choice, elections
that end without consequences are not democratic. The winners must be
able to assume office, exercise power, and conclude their terms in accord-
ance with constitutional rules. Here, the circle closes. Elections must be
“decisive” ex ante as well as “irreversible” ex post.6 If they do not invest
winners with effective decision-making power, then they are only so
much sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Elections may be considered democratic if and only if they fulfill each
item on this list. The mathematical analogy is multiplication by zero,
rather than addition. Partial compliance with democratic norms does not
add up to partial democracy. Gross violation of any one condition invali-
dates the fulfillment of all the others. If the chain of democratic choice
is broken anywhere, elections become not less democratic but undemo-
cratic. Situated at a middling level of abstraction and complexity, this way
of distinguishing between democratic and authoritarian elections offers
at least two distinct advantages.
First, it narrows the gap between continuous and dichotomous concep-
tions of democracy. While attentive to nuance and gradation, it also takes
into account “qualitative leaps” in the contested border regions that divide
democracy and authoritarianism. It encourages close attention to empiri-
cal detail while offering a conceptual scheme to order and weight the
innumerable checklist items that election observers use to assess electoral
processes. Though cognizant of the foggy zone of ambiguity that spans
democracy and authoritarianism, it still provides systematic justification for
the notion that democratic regimes form “bounded wholes”—coherent
configurations of essential attributes.7
Second, the idea of a coherent chain of democratic choice opens the
way to “contextualized comparisons” of electoral regimes.8 Authoritar-
ian incumbents may play the electoral-control game by attacking any link
in the chain. But whichever approach or approaches they choose, the idea
of basic norms linked together into a unified whole by the logic of demo-
cratic choice can help to reveal their maneuvers for what they are.

Engineering Authoritarian Elections

The above review of what makes for democratic elections takes into
account every dimension of electoral choice, from its object to its impact.
The chain of democratic choice is complete. No links to be added, none
to be taken away. Yet authoritarian rulers may break any of the links in
more than one way. The limits of the authoritarian imagination are not
logical, but empirical. Rulers may choose a number of tactics to help them
42 Journal of Democracy

carve the democratic heart out of electoral contests. What follows should
be understood as only a preliminary list, corresponding to the seven links
enumerated in Table 1 on page 39.
1) Authoritarian rulers may preempt potential threats emanating from
popular elections by circumscribing the scope of elective office through
the use of reserved positions. Some authoritarian regimes allow voters to
fill subordinate positions of public authority, while keeping the “high
center” of power shut off from electoral pressures. Local elections in
Taiwan until the early 1990s, as well as legislative elections in contem-
porary Morocco and authoritarian Brazil (1964–85), exemplify such
strategies of electoral confinement. Authoritarians may also keep elected
officials from acquiring real power by establishing reserved domains to
cut these officials off from effective decision making.9 Official posts are
filled through elections, but crucial policy areas are removed from their
jurisdiction. Guatemala in the late 1980s, Chile after Pinochet, and con-
temporary Turkey all furnish examples of formal “fencing-off” strategies,
with the military walling off certain policy domains from democratic
interference.
2) At times, authoritarian incumbents can emerge victorious from
transitional elections thanks not to their own “cleverness but the inepti-
tude of [their] opponents.”10 With lamentable frequency, however, such
incumbents find ways to engineer the failure of opposition parties. Most
transitional regimes lack anything resembling a consolidated party sys-
tem. Alert authoritarian rulers can take advantage of this fluidity to split
or marginalize inexperienced opposition groups.
The means by which authoritarian incumbents can secure the exclu-
sion of competitors are manifold. The attempted or actual murder of
opponents, as in Togo in 1991 and in Armenia in 1994, is the most ex-
treme form of candidate screening. Much more common is the softer
technique of banning parties and disqualifying candidates. Expelling
parties and candidates from the electoral game is sometimes a simple act
of arbitrariness.
Often, however, ruling parties hand-tailor legal instruments that per-
mit them to exclude opponents from electoral competition. The electoral
laws of post-revolutionary Mexico kept regional and religious parties as
well as independent candidates out of the electoral arena. In Côte
d’Ivoire, Kenya, and Zambia incumbent presidents used custom-made
“nationality clauses” to prevent their most serious competitors from run-
ning. In the Gambia, coup-monger Yahya Jammeh pushed through a new
constitution that shut the country’s entire political elite out of the elec-
toral game. In much of the Arab world, radical Islamist movements are
either legally proscribed (as in Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria) or admitted
but tightly curbed (as in Yemen and Jordan). In contemporary Iran, can-
didates’ revolutionary credentials are subject to tight evaluation by state
agencies and religious authorities.
Andreas Schedler 43

Since at least the time of the ancient Romans and their policy of divide
et impera, authoritarian rulers have been seeking to cause fragmentation
among their opponents. To outlaw opposition parties and allow only
unaffiliated individuals to contest elections, as in Taiwan until 1989, or
to ban parties in general, as in contem-
porary Iran and Uganda, represents the
Fareed Zakaria has most radical device for disorganizing
described regimes that electoral dissidence. But authoritarian
are “routinely ignoring incumbents have other, subtler ways of
keeping opposition from coalescing.
constitutional limits on
They may weaken opposition parties by
their power and informal practice, as Kenya’s President
depriving citizens of Daniel arap Moi did by “harassing or
basic rights and bribing the leaders of any new parties
freedoms” as “illiberal until splits occurred or key members
democracies.” Illiberal defected.”11 They may also design insti-
they surely are, but tutions to secure this end, as Peru’s
democratic? President Alberto Fujimori did by se-
curing passage of an election law that
mandated an extreme form of propor-
tional representation in races for Congress.
3) To prevent voters from acquiring fair knowledge about available
choices, incumbents may strive to prevent opposition forces from dis-
seminating their campaign messages. Dissenters may find themselves
shut out of the public space by denial of their rights to speak, peaceably
assemble, or move about freely; or be stripped of reasonable access to
media and campaign resources.
For elections to qualify as democratic, they must take place in an open
environment where civil and political liberties are not subject to repres-
sion. Nevertheless, numerous regimes exhibit a “strange combination of
remarkably competitive elections and harsh repression.” 12 Southeast
Asia’s electoral autocracies have practiced “the containment of liberal
participation” while tolerating electoral contestation, which has resulted
in “a desultory mix of freedoms and controls.”13 In many sub-Saharan
countries, electoral contests have gone hand in hand with pervasive state-
sponsored violence. Fareed Zakaria has described regimes that are
“routinely ignoring constitutional limits on their power and depriving
citizens of basic rights and freedoms” as “illiberal democracies.” 14 Illib-
eral they surely are, but democratic?
When authoritarian incumbents go out to face the voting public and get
its electoral seal of approval for their continuance in power, they often
confront emerging opposition parties under conditions of radical unfair-
ness. In case after case, this unfairness has to do with money and the
media. Usually, electoral authoritarians enjoy ample access to public
funds and favorable public exposure. The whole apparatus of the state—
44 Journal of Democracy

often including government-run media—is at their beck and call, and they
often can harass or intimidate privately owned media organs into ignor-
ing opposition candidates.
4) Ever since the invention of representative government, political
actors have been tempted to control electoral outcomes by controlling the
composition of the electorate, whether by formal or informal means. In
the contemporary world, formal disenfranchisement is a very tough “sell”
both domestically and abroad. Legal apartheid is not a viable model
anymore. Today, even the most hard-boiled electoral autocracies com-
monly grant universal suffrage to their citizens.
The real growth end of the business, therefore, lies in the realm of
informal disenfranchisement. “Ethnic cleansing,” the persecution, physi-
cal elimination, and forced displacement of certain groups of citizens, as
of non-Arabic-speaking blacks in Mauritania in the early 1990s, is the
most atrocious way of stripping citizens of their franchise (and much
more). Less uncivil authoritarians may resort to subtler techniques. They
may devise registration methods, identification requirements, and voting
procedures that are universal in form but systematically discriminatory
in practice. In addition, they may manipulate the voter rolls, illicitly
adding or deleting names, or bar voters from polling stations on trumped-
up legal or technical grounds.
5) Voters must be insulated from undue outside pressures if they are
to choose freely. If power and money determine electoral choices, con-
stitutional guarantees of democratic freedom and equality turn into dead
letters. Clearly, violence or the threat of it can keep voters from exercis-
ing a free choice. (Intimidation may take subtler forms as well.) When
authoritarian rulers resort to systematic violence against opposition can-
didates, civil society, and independent media outlets—as Zimbabwe’s
President Robert Mugabe did in 2000—they may or may not succeed, but
clearly they have stepped beyond the bounds of democratic politics.
Concerns about the “clientelist control” of poor voters tend to arise
whenever electoral competition unfolds in contexts of glaring socioeco-
nomic inequality. Accordingly, in many new democracies, such as the
Philippines and Mexico, reform-minded parties and civic associations
have been worrying about corrupt political entrepreneurs trying to buy
the votes of the poor.15
6) Even if pre-electoral conditions allow for free and fair competition,
authoritarian incumbents may still try to bend or break the will of the
people through “redistributive” practices (electoral fraud) or rules of
representation (institutional bias).
Electoral fraud involves the introduction of bias into the administra-
tion of elections. It can take place at any stage of the electoral process,
from voter registration to the final tally of the ballots. It covers such
activities as forging voter ID cards, burning ballot boxes, or padding the
vote totals of favored parties and candidates. Invariably, though, it vio-
Andreas Schedler 45

lates the principle of democratic equality. Fraudulent practices distort the

citizenry’s preferences by denying voting rights to some citizens, while
amplifying the voice of others. Clearly, electoral alchemy has been a
favored pursuit of authoritarian incumbents worried by the uncertainty
of transitional elections. From Haiti to Peru, from Yugoslavia to
Azerbaijan, from Burkina Faso to Zimbabwe, governing parties have
rigged or tried to rig the vote. In at least half of 81 protested elections
registered worldwide during the 1990s, opposition parties claimed that
they had been victims of fraud.16
Authoritarian incumbents also can institute self-serving rules of rep-
resentation granting themselves a decisive edge when votes are translated
into seats. Rather than devising a minimally neutral framework of com-
petition, they impose strongly “redistributive” rules to keep an eventual
loss of votes from turning into a loss of power. In Mexico under the
Institutional Revolutionary Party, Zimbabwe under Mugabe, and Croatia
under Franjo Tudjman, majoritarian electoral rules proved effective at
minimizing the parliamentary weight of opposition parties. In democra-
tizing Mexico, a generous “governability clause” ensured that the ruling
party could preserve its legislative majority with little more than a third
of the vote. In other places such as Kenya, the Gambia, and Malaysia,
authoritarian incumbents have relied on gerrymandering and gross
malapportionment to help them keep winning despite losing.
7) The last link in the chain of democratic choice is the norm of irre-
versibility. Elections are meaningful exercises of democratic governance
only if voters are able to endow elected officials with real power. Yet
even if elections are decisive ex ante, with elected representatives enjoy-
ing full constitutional authority, they may still fail to be decisive ex post.
They may turn inconsequential, too, when undemocratic actors put
elected officials under their tutelage or straightaway remove them from
their positions.
Students of new democracies have long been awake to the danger of
“tutelary powers” undermining the authority of democratic politics.
Under authoritarian tutelage, elected representatives possess their con-
stitutional powers only on paper. In fact, they are subordinate to the
whims and wishes of their unaccountable masters. At the time, Portugal
following the1974 Revolution of the Carnations and Chile after Pinochet
seemed to be clear examples of military guardianship.17
Cruder and more drastic than the assertion of tutelary powers is the clas-
sic coup or putsch, in which nondemocratic actors nullify electoral outcomes
by either preventing democratically elected officials from filling their posts
or by ousting them before their constitutional mandate has expired. Natu-
rally, reversing electoral outcomes by aborting the electoral game leads not
to electoral authoritarianism, but to plain (nonelectoral) authoritarianism.
This list of electoral sins raises intriguing questions. Our metaphor of
a democratic chain of choice suggests that in normative terms all strat-
46 Journal of Democracy

egies of electoral containment are equivalent. To what extent is this true?

Is it the same to shut out competitors as to buy off opposition voters? Is
it the same to manipulate the mass media as to rob an election? The chain
of choice also suggests that authoritarian transgressions are equivalent in
practical terms. If this is true we may expect them to work like the tubes
of a pipe organ. If some go down, others must go up. But to what extent
and under which conditions are authoritarian rulers free to pick from the
menu of electoral manipulation? Which combinations and sequences of
nondemocratic strategies are viable and which are likely?
Unfortunately, scholars of comparative politics do not currently know
much about the conditions under which authoritarian actors pursue, or
stop pursuing, certain strategies or bundles of strategies. But perhaps the
story of Mexico under the hegemony of the PRI can prove informative.
There, the ruling party covered the country with a far-reaching web of
control mechanisms that ranged from restricted civil liberties to
exclusionary electoral rules. In the early 1980s, as the PRI came under
pressure to permit democratization, its first response was to apply the
“brake” of electoral fraud as a means of stopping opposition parties from
making gains. As clean-election reforms gained ground, the PRI’s elec-
toral containment strategy shifted toward efforts to exploit the ruling
party’s privileged access to state resources and the mass media. Later, as
the media became more open to the opposition’s message and the elec-
toral playing field grew more level, local PRI bosses played their last card
by resorting to voter intimidation and vote buying—mostly without ef-
fect. This appears to be a plausible strategic sequence, but we do not yet
know whether it is generalizable or unique to Mexico.

Electoral Authoritarianism in the World

How can we recognize an electoral authoritarian (EA) regime? No
current index of democracy is tailored to register particular authoritar-
ian fractures in the chain of electoral choice. Still, even if we lack good
longitudinal data, the careful classification of regimes by 2001 pro-
vided by Larry Diamond (on pp. 21–35 of this issue) permits to
establish the current incidence of electoral authoritarianism in the
world with reasonable confidence. In his classification of 192 inde-
pendent states, Diamond relies on a combination of Freedom House
scores, electoral data, and informed judgment. His regime typology
differs from my own in one respect: He introduces finer distinctions in
the space between electoral democracy and closed authoritarianism. We
reserve this space for the broad category of “electoral authoritarian-
ism,” while he divides it three ways—into ambiguous regimes,
competitive authoritarianism, and uncompetitive authoritarianism.
The distinction between competitive and uncompetitive regimes high-
lights a crucial source of variation among EA regimes: the
Andreas Schedler 47

TABLE 2—THE REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF POLITICAL REGIMES IN THE

DEVELOPING WORLD, 2001
WORLD REGIONS / LIBERAL ELECTORAL ELECTORAL CLOSED

M
|

REGIME TYPES DEMOCRACY DEMOCRACY AUTHORITARIANISM AUTHORITARIANISM |

ABSOLUTE FIGURES
Eastern Europe 11 3 5 0 19
Central Asia & Caucasus 0 0 7 1 8
Latin America & Carib. 17 11 4 1 33
N. Africa & Middle East 1 0 10 8 19
Sub-Saharan Africa 5 10 26 7 48
South, SE & East Asia 2 8 6 8 24
World 36 32 58 25 151
WITHIN REGIONS (%)
Eastern Europe 57.9 15.8 26.3 100
Central Asia & Caucasus 87.5 12.5 100
Latin America & Carib. 51.5 33.3 12.1 3 100
N. Africa & Middle East 5.3 52.6 42.1 100
Sub-Saharan Africa 10.4 20.8 54.2 14.6 100
South, SE & East Asia 8.3 33.3 25 33.3 100
World 23.8 21.2 38.4 16.5 100
ACROSS REGIONS (%)
Eastern Europe 30.5 9.4 8.6
Central Asia & Caucasus 12.1 4
Latin America & Carib. 47.2 34.4 6.9 4
N. Africa & Middle East 2.8 17.2 32
Sub-Saharan Africa 13.9 31.2 44.8 28
South, SE & East Asia 5.5 25 10.3 32
World 100 100 100 100
Source: Author’s calculations based on Larry Diamond’s Table 2 on pages 30–31 of this issue (with
small adjustments).

competitiveness of their party systems. While democracy is “a system in

which parties lose elections,”18 electoral authoritarianism is a system in
which opposition parties lose elections. Still, the relative strength of op-
position forces varies substantially among electoral autocracies. In what
I wish to call “competitive EA regimes” authoritarian rulers are insecure;
in “hegemonic EA regimes” they are invincible. In the former, the elec-
toral arena is a genuine battleground in the struggle for power; in the
latter, it is little more than a theatrical setting for the self-representation
and self-reproduction of power. Conceiving both competitive and
hegemonic regimes as subtypes of electoral authoritarianism sets us look-
ing for the broad “family resemblances” that unite them. For the present
purpose, it allows us to collapse both into one broad category.
“Ambiguous” regimes, of course, are harder to classify. Assigning
them to either side of the democratic-authoritarian divide involves a
certain dose of arbitrariness. Preferring to err on the authoritarian side,
and thus to classify democratic regimes as nondemocratic rather than
the other way around, I count as electoral democracies only those
ambiguous regimes listed by Diamond that show average Freedom
House scores lower than 4.0 (Indonesia, Mozambique, and Paraguay).
All others I sort into the electoral authoritarian box. Table 2 sums up the
resulting distribution of regime types within and across world regions.
48 Journal of Democracy

The table excludes industrial democracies (Western Europe and Japan)

as well as Pacific island states. In addition, it divides the heterogeneous
world of postcommunist countries into Eastern Europe (19 countries, in-
cluding the Baltic republics) and Central Asia and the Caucasus (8
countries).
What does the broad regional distribution of regime types look like?
To begin with, the picture is somewhat less bright than one might ex-
pect as the “third wave” of global democratization rolls toward its
thirtieth anniversary in the year 2004. Less than half (45 percent) of all
countries outside the realm of established Western democracies qualify
as either liberal or electoral democracies. The remainder host variants
of authoritarianism, with EA regimes making up more than two-thirds
(69.9 percent) of all autocracies. Overall, electoral autocracies have
become the most common and closed authoritarian regimes the least
common regime type, with the former representing 38.4 percent and the
latter 16.5 percent of all countries in our basket.
Beneath broad global trends lie remarkable geographic variations.
Eastern Europe and Latin America are fertile soil for democracy. Around
three-quarters of the countries in each region (73.7 percent in Eastern
Europe and 84.8 percent in Latin America) rate as either liberal or elec-
toral democracies. These two regions together account for 77.8 percent
of all liberal democratic regimes and 43.7 percent of all electoral demo-
cratic regimes in the developing world. By contrast, Arab countries,
sub-Saharan Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia are homes of elec-
toral authoritarianism. The percentage of countries hosting EA regimes
runs as high as 87.5 percent in Central Asia, 54.2 percent in sub-Saharan
Africa, and 52.2 percent in North Africa and the Middle East. Sub-Saha-
ran Africa alone accounts for nearly half (44.8 percent) of all EA regimes.
The most even regime distribution is to be found in South, Southeast,
and East Asia. In this large and diverse part of the world, electoral de-
mocracy and closed authoritarianism form the most frequent categories,
each covering one-third of the countries. Still, a sizeable share (one-quar-
ter) of Asian countries are electoral authoritarian regimes, with the region
accommodating about 10 percent of all EA regimes worldwide.

The Power of Elections

Tremendous variation exists within the wide family of electoral autoc-
racies. They show substantial differences in the strategies of electoral
containment they employ as well as in the degree of political legitimacy
they enjoy. Clearly, some are more repressive than others and some are
more popular than others. Furthermore, electoral autocracies vary dra-
matically in their resilience, longevity, and trajectories of change. Some
have been known to collapse in a matter of days: Fujimori’s rule in Peru
and Slobodan Miloševiæ’s in Serbia come to mind. Some have oscillated
Andreas Schedler 49

between electoral authoritarianism and a more closed variety: One thinks

of Pakistan and Nigeria. Other electoral authoritarian regimes such as
Kenya, Malaysia, and Turkey have been surviving for decades. Still oth-
ers, such as Senegal, Mexico, and Taiwan, turned into well-known
success stories of gradual democratization. Driven by spiraling pressures
of electoral competition and democratizing reform, they have made sus-
tained progress toward liberal democracy.
But when are authoritarian elections regime-sustaining and when are
they regime-subverting? What makes them now instruments of power,
now levers for the opposition? Why do they sometimes keep authoritar-
ian rulers in the saddle, and at other times lift them right out of their
stirrups? To a large extent, it is the strategic interaction between authori-
tarian incumbents and the democratic opposition that determines how the
structural ambiguity of electoral autocracies plays out. Yet the ultimate
arbiters of the game are the military and the citizenry. The former have
the power to abort it by force, the latter to subvert it through their votes.
At times, the international community also may tip the balance. Unfor-
tunately, the new global agenda after 11 September 2001, which clearly
gives priority to security over liberty, may well end up favoring electoral
autocrats over democratic electorates.

NOTES
The article has benefited from incisive observations by Jason M. Brownlee, Michael
Coppedge, Steven Levitsky, Diego Reynoso, and Richard Snyder. Further comments are
highly welcome and may be sent to [email protected].

1. For similar recent diagnoses, see Thomas Carothers, “The End of the Transition
Paradigm,” Journal of Democracy 13 (January 2002): 5–21; Juan J. Linz, Totalitarian
and Authoritarian Regimes (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 2000), 33–34; and Andreas
Schedler, “The Nested Game of Democratization by Elections,” International Political
Science Review 23 (January 2002): 103–22. On “diminished subtypes” of democracy, see
David Collier and Steven Levitsky, “Democracy with Adjectives: Conceptual Innovation
in Comparative Research,” World Politics 49 (April 1997): 430–51.

2. M. Steven Fish, “Authoritarianism Despite Elections: Russia in the Light of Demo-

cratic Theory and Comparative Practice,” paper presented at the 2001 Annual Meeting
of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 30 August–2 September
2001, 18.

3. Robert A. Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven: Yale

University Press, 1971), 2.

4. Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth

Century (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), 7.

5. Guy Hermet, Alain Rouquié, and Juan J. Linz, Elections Without Choice (New
York: John Wiley, 1978).

6. See also Guillermo A. O’Donnell, “Democracy, Law, and Comparative Politics,”

Studies in Comparative International Development 36 (Spring 2001): 13; and Adam
Przeworski, “Democracy as a Contingent Outcome of Conflicts,” in Jon Elster and Rune
50 Journal of Democracy

Slagstad, eds., Constitutionalism and Democracy (Cambridge: Cambridge University

Press, 1988), 61–63.

7. On electoral observers’ checklists, see Jørgen Elklit, “Free and Fair Elections,” in
Richard Rose, ed., International Encyclopedia of Elections (Washington, D.C.: Congres-
sional Quarterly Press, 2000), 130–35. On the idea of democratic regimes as “bounded
wholes,” see David Collier and Robert Adcock, “Democracy and Dichotomies: A Prag-
matic Approach to Choices About Concepts,” Annual Review of Political Science 2
(1999): 557–60 and 562.

8. Richard M. Locke and Kathleen Thelen, “Apples and Oranges Revisited:

Contextualized Comparisons and the Study of Comparative Labor Politics,” Politics and
Society 23 (September 1995): 337–67.

9. J. Samuel Valenzuela, “Democratic Consolidation in Post-Transitional Settings:

Notion, Process, and Facilitating Conditions,” in Scott Mainwaring, Guillermo
O’Donnell, and J. Samuel Valenzuela, eds., Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The New
South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective (Notre Dame: University of
Notre Dame Press, 1992), 64–66.

10. Michael McFaul, “Russia Under Putin: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back,”
Journal of Democracy 11 (July 2000): 23.

11. Joel D. Barkan and Njuguna Ng’ethe, “Kenya Tries Again,” Journal of Democ-
racy 9 (April 1998): 33.

12. Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner, “Is Iran Democratizing?” Journal of Democ-
racy 11 (October 2000): 107.

13. William F. Case, “Can the ‘Halfway House’ Stand? Semidemocracy and Elite
Theory in Three Southeast Asian Countries,” Comparative Politics 28 (1996): 459 and
453.

14. Fareed Zakaria, “The Rise of Illiberal Democracy,” Foreign Affairs 76

(November–December 1997): 22.

15. See Frederic C. Schaffer, “Clean Elections and the ‘Great Unwashed’: Electoral
Reform and Class Divide in the Philippines,” paper presented at the 2001 Annual Meet-
ing of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 30 August–2
September 2001.

16. See Robert A. Pastor, “The Role of Electoral Administration in Democratic Tran-
sitions: Implications for Policy and Research,” Democratization 6 (Winter 1999):
Appendix.

17. J. Samuel Valenzuela, “Democratic Consolidation in Post-Transitional Settings,”

62–64.

18. Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms
in Eastern Europe and Latin America (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991),
10.