Sa 1 0107
Sa 1 0107
Sa 1 0107
END OF SECTION A
Thereafter it is expected that annual dividend amount will be growing at 8% per annum for an
infinite period. The face value of the firm’s stock is Rs.10 and its beta is 1.25. If the risk free
rate and risk premium on the market are 5% and 5.6% respectively, you are required to
calculate the intrinsic value of the stock.
(8 marks)
< Answer >
2. Construction of a complex, Industrial trade center is proposed to be financed by way of issue
of bonds and equity shares in the proportion of 7:3. The details of the instruments are as
under:
i. Bonds are bearing a coupon rate of 12% per annum maturing in 7 years. The interest
will be compounded semi-annually. To redeem the bonds a sinking fund is established.
The coupon payment is tax deductible.
ii. Equity investors require a return of 16%.
The expected net operating income from the property is Rs.75 lakhs and the effective tax
rate applicable is 35%.
You are required to calculate
a. Capitalization rate.
b. Market value of property.
(7 + 3 = 10 marks)
< Answer >
3. The stock of Hindustan Oil Exploration Ltd. (HOE) is currently trading at Rs.105.95. Based
3. The stock of Hindustan Oil Exploration Ltd. (HOE) is currently trading at Rs.105.95. Based
on the current market price, the P/E ratio is 16.18, P/B ratio is 3.91 and P/S ratio is 6.73.
Other fundamentals of HOE are given below:
Sales Rs.924.54 millions
Net profit Rs.384.84 millions
Net worth Rs.1593.25 millions
Dividend per share Re.1
Number of shares of Rs.10 each. Rs.58.75 millions
Beta 2
The yield on the one-year treasury bill is 5.5% and the equity risk premium in the market is
8.00%.
You are required to
a. Determine the required rate of return for equity holders and the sustainable growth rate
of HOE Ltd.
b. Estimate the P/E, P/B and P/S ratios justified by the fundamentals.
c. Explain whether the stock is fairly valued, overvalued or undervalued based on your
answer in part (b).
(3 + 6 + 3 = 12 marks)
Caselet
Read the caselet carefully and answer the following questions:
4. The caselet states that periodic earnings announcements do serve a purpose as they reveal < Answer >
information that would give a fair idea of the progress of the company. Briefly explain the
non-financial factors to be examined by an investor to assess the progress of the company.
(10 marks)
5. As an analyst, discuss the important characteristics that you would analyze before you identify < Answer >
an industry for investment.
(10 marks)
Periodic earnings announcements may not tell the whole story but they definitely provide the gist of it. These
numbers may lead to higher or lower expectations and affect the valuation of the stock. At times the management may
also resort to window-dressing to meet the forecasts. But does it mean that these numbers are irrelevant? What
information can you glean from interim financial reports? Periodic earnings announcements do serve a purpose as
they reveal information that would give a fair idea of the progress of the company. Additional disclosures, such as
segment reporting, presentation of consolidated results and the geographical break-up, give a lot of information that
would otherwise not be available in public domain at such frequency.
Analyst presentations and conference call transcripts are also available on certain company web sites. These are
valuable sources of information and give insights into the companies' operations and prospects. They give you a feel
of what is happening in a company and where is it heading in terms of business performance. Periodic financial
disclosures also show how the company compared with its peers. They indicate a company's market position and
control within the industry in that particular period and also point to whether a company has the potential to make the
best of the given business conditions. The absence of such periodic disclosure leaves a gap in financial information.
Worse, it could lead to selective disclosures, giving room for insider trading. Small investors would be left in the
lurch due to non-availability of information. The market might witness wider swings due to speculation and selective
disclosure. Information provided in financial statements is useful if scrutinized properly. For instance, the previous
eight quarters' earnings announcements would indicate the trend in margins and earnings growth. Sharp deviations
may require further scrutiny to judge the sustainability.
Any one-off instances having an impact on the earnings should be eliminated. Also, one has to be aware of the
external factors governing the business and their effect on the earnings performance in any period. When making an
investment decision, adequate discounting should be done for any risks associated with the business. This would be
based on the investor's risk-taking ability. It might also pay to take an independent view of the stock without the
market interest in a stock influencing your decision. Any stock that commands a higher valuation than its earnings can
support will be vulnerable to volatility. Markets generally tend to overestimate the earnings growth potential of
certain companies or get carried away by exceptional earnings announcements without looking at the ground realities.
Often, stocks zoom or slump after earnings announcements and trade at valuations that cannot be sustained by
earnings growth. It is better to avoid a stock that commands high multiples when the business environment is
earnings growth. It is better to avoid a stock that commands high multiples when the business environment is
uncertain. Also, avoid momentum investing in such stocks. A little bit of caution and reasoning could protect you
from extreme downside risks. But do remember that numbers are usually factored in the stock price and should not be
taken fully at face value. Future performance would depend on a host of external factors. A fresh investment decision
should be based on the general business environment and the scope for business growth.
END OF SECTION B
Suggested Answers
Security Analysis - I (MB331INV) : January 2007
Section A : Basic Concepts
1. Answer : (d)
30,32830,328
PVIFA(10,5) = Rs.8, 000.
Reason: Annuity = = 3.791
Hence (d) is the correct answer.
2. Answer: (e)
Reason: The functions of secondary markets are:
• The investors should be able to dispose of his stock at the most competitive price. The most
competitive price in case of selling is the highest price, while for buying it is the lowest price.
• It provides liquidity to the investors without any loss.
• That resulting transaction costs are minimum for the investor.
Hence (e) is the correct answer.
3. Answer : (b)
Reason : Number of unique covariance terms is given by :
2 2
n −n 15 − 15
= = 105
2 2 .
Hence (b) is the answer.
4. Answer : (c)
Reason : a. SML typically represents the average or normal trade-off between risk and return for a group of
securities, where risk is measured typically, in terms of the securities betas. Statement (a) is true.
b. The amount by which a security’s return differed from the normal return for its level of risk is
simply the vertical distance of the security’s plot on the graph from the SML. Statement (b) is true.
c. & e. SML is not same as the characteristic line for a simple security. For the characteristic line, the
y-axis represents the returns for a particular security and the x-axis represents the returns for the
market index. The slope of the characteristic line is the beta for the particular security involved.
Therefore statement (c) is not true and statement (e) is true.
d. Ex-post SMLs are used to evaluate the performance of portfolio managers. Statement (d) is true.
5. Answer : (d)
Reason : 15 = Rf + 2 (10 – Rf)
i.e., Rf = 20 – 15 = 5%
Revised R = 5 + 2 (15 – 5) = 25%
6. Answer : (d)
Reason : Beta is the slope of the regression line (characteristic line). Beta measures non-diversifiable risk also
known as systematic risk.Beta greater than one is referred to as an aggressive security.
Therefore, Option (d) is the correct answer.
7. Answer : (e)
Reason : The main objectives of IOSCO are:
• To cooperate and promote high standards of regulation in order to maintain just, efficient and
sound markets.
• To exchange information on their respective experience in order to promote the development of
domestic markets.
• To unite their efforts to establish standards and effective surveillance of international securities
transactions.
• To provide mutual assistance to promote the integrity of the markets by a rigorous application of
the standards and by effective enforcement against offences.
Hence, all statements (I), (II) and (III) are correct.
Hence, option (e) is the correct answer.
8. Answer : (a)
Reason: The department looks after the policy matters and regulaltory issues concerning the primary market. The
department is responsible for regualations regarding underwriters, registrars to issue, credit rating
agencies, share transfer agents, debenture trustees, merchant bankers, bakers to an issue and portfolio
managers. Hence, option is (a) is the correct answer.
9. Answer : (a)
Reason : The following can become members of OTCEI :
Public financial institutions
Scheduled banks
Mutual funds
Venture capital funds and venture capital companies
NBFCs
Banking subsidiaries.
All the above can become members of OTCEI by fulfilling the eligibility norms laid down by OTCEI
such as network, approval of SEBI, infrasructure, standing and experience, etc.,
Hence (a) is the answer.
10. Answer : (a)
Reason: The advantages of depositary syatem to the investors are :
Filling up transfer deeds and lodging the same with the company for transfer is not necessary.
There would not be any bad deliveries
Exemption from paying stamp duty on transfer of shares
Shares purchased in electronic form will be transferred to the investor’s name within a day of completion
of settlement
Faster payments on sale of shares
No scope for forgery of share certificates.
Hence (a) is the correct answer.
11. Answer : (d)
Reason : Statement II is not true for pioneering stage as the dividends become payable only at
growth stage and high dividends can be expected only at stabilization stage.
12. Answer : (e)
Reason: The major source of exit barriers are as follows:
1. Specialized assets
2. Fixed costs of exit
3. Strategic interrelationships
4. Emotional barriers
5. Government and social restrictions.
Hence (e) is the correct answer.
13. Answer : (c)
Reason : Net profit margin = PAT/Sales
∴ PAT = 100 crores
PAT + Depreciation
No. of shares
Cash earning per share =
∴ Number of shares = 10 crores
∴ Earning per share = 100/10 = Rs.10
Therefore, Option (c) is the correct answer.
14. Answer : (e)
Reason : The lead indicator approach is an important forecasting method to forecast the general economic
conditions by identifying economic indicators that turn ahead of the change in general level of economic
activity. Some of the leading economic indicators are the utilization of manufacturing capacity,
residential construction, corporate profits, and the general level of stock prices.
All the first four alternatives are the leading economic indicators, while the last alternative is a lagging
economic indicator.
Therefore answer is (e).
15. Answer : (d)
Reason : Selection of the companies has been made on the basis of four parameters:
a. Market capitalization of the company
b. Industry representation
c. Trading interests in the scrips.
d. Fundamentals of the company.
Hence, option (d) is the correct answer.
16. Answer : (c)
Reason : Control over raw material is an artificial barrier and not a natural. All other are the natural entry
barriers.
Therefore, option (c) is the correct answer.
17. Answer : (c)
Reason: EPS = ROE × book value = 0.25 × 15.63 = 3.91.
18. Answer : (e)
Reason: Three-stage Dividend Discount Model
It is a combination of two-stage model and H-model. This model assumes three stages of growth:
I. An initial period of high-growth
II. An intermediate period during which the growth declines.
III. A final stable-growth phase.
Hence (e) is the correct answer.
19. Answer : (d)
Reason : In book-building process, payment is made only after allocation. In fixed price process payment is made
at the time of subscription whereas refund is possible after allocation.
Hence (d) is the answer.
20. Answer : (e)
Reason : An ETF will primarily invest in the securities of companies that are included in a selected market index.
The NAV of the ETF is equal to a fraction of the the value of the underlying index.
ETFs can be bought or sold on a daily basis like stocks.
Hence (e) is the answer.
21. Answer : (c)
Reason : P0 =
E 0 (1 − R.R) (1 + g)
ke − g
P0 =
P0 (1 − R.R) (1 + g)
=
E0 ke − g
(1 − 0.70)1.09 0.327
0.125 − 0.09
= = 0.035 = 9.34
22. Answer : (e)
Reason: Advantages of EVA :
• EVA ia primarily used for evalating the performance of management..
• It serve as a proxy for measuring for measuring a firm ‘s stock performance.
• EVA can be applied to capital budgeting like NPV.
Hence (e) is the correct answer.
23. Answer : (e)
Reason: An appraiser, while determining the discount, should take into consideration the following:
I. Decreased executive’s actual duties and areas of active involvement.
II. Ability of existing successor management to move up the organization ladder.
III. Compensation necessary for replacing the key executive.
IV. Damages that are likely to arise form risks which the company is exposed to as a result of change in
the key position.
Hence (e) is the correct answer.
24. Answer : (c)
Reason : According to the Du Pont analysis
Return on equity = Net profit margin x Asset turnover ratio x Asset – Equity ratio
Leverage ratios measure the long-term solvency of a firm. Total assets to net worth is the leverage ratio
used in ROE analysis.
25. Answer : (d)
Reason : P/S ratio is useful for valuing companies even with no earnings, viz., no dividends at all.
P/S ratio can never be negative.
Firms with low profit margins and high P/S ratio are overvalued and those with high profit margins and
low P/S ratios are undervalued.
P/S ratio is not influenced by accounting methods used fro depreciation, inventory, etc.,
Statements (I) and (IV) are true, and statements (II) and (III) are not true. Hence (d) is the answer.
26. Answer : (e)
Reason : Alternatives a), b) and c) are applications of ex-post SML. Whereas alternative d) is an application of
ex-ante SML. Alternative e) is not an application of SML.
27. Answer : (d)
Reason : Weak form of efficiency assert that stock prices fully reflect all historical price information. Runs test is
used to test the weak form of EMH.
Super strong form of efficiency Stock prices fully reflect all relevant information including insider
information.
Semi-strong form of efficiency implies that market prices reflect all publicly available information
concerning past trading as well as fundamental aspects of the firm. Hence stock prices are not predictable
using the publicly available information.
Relationship between the historical P/E ratios and risk-adjusted market performance is evidence against
the semi-strong form of market efficiency.
Hence (d) is the answer.
28. Answer : (a)
Reason: Residual analysis, event studies and calendar studies are tests for examinig semi-strong form of market
efficieny. Trading by mutual fund managers is a method for examinig strong form of market efficiency.
While filter test is a method for examining weak form of market efficiency.
Hence, option (a) is the correct answer.
29. Answer : (c)
NewMarketValue
×
Reason: New Base year Average = Old Base Year Average OldMarketValue
(2500 + 150)
X×
1010 = 2500
X = 952.83
Thus, Old Base Year Average is Rs. 952.83 crore.
Hence, option (c) is the correct answer.
Section B : Problems/Caselet
1. Dividend declared during the current year =Rs. 10 × 0.25 = 2.5 < TOP >
Future Dividend
First year = 10 × 0.20 = Rs. 2.00
Second year = 10 × 0.30 = Rs. 3.00
Third year = 10 × 0.35 = Rs. 3.50
Required rate of return = Rf + βA (RM – Rf)
= 5 + 1.25 × 5.6 = 12%
D4
/(1 + K)3
Intrinsic value of the share = D1/(1+K) + D2/(1+K)2 + D3/(1+ k)3 + K − g