Industrials and Energy: Exploration & Production: Industry Note

I N D U S T R Y wN O T E
April 24, 2023

Mike Scialla, Analyst
501-350-7626
Industrials and Energy: Exploration &
[email protected] Production
Collin Nieman, Associate
Reason for Report: Initiation of Coverage
501-377-8520
[email protected]
Upstream Oil & Gas Initiation of Coverage
INVESTMENT CONCLUSION:
We are initiating coverage on seven exploration and production
companies. Five are natural gas focused producers: Coterra Energy,
Inc. (OW - $32PT), Range Resources (OW - $34PT), CNX Resources
Corporation (EW - $17PT), EQT Corporation (EW - $36PT), and
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (EW - $91PT). Two are oil focused
producers: Earthstone Energy, Inc. (OW - $18PT), and Talos Energy,
Inc. (OW - $21PT).
KEY POINTS:
See important disclosures and analyst certification on page 78 of this report. This report constitutes a compendium report (covers six or more
subject companies). As such, Stephens Inc. chooses to provide specific disclosures for the companies mentioned by reference. To access
current disclosures for the companies in this report, clients should refer to https://stephens2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or
contact your Stephens Inc. representative for additional information.
© 2023 Stephens Inc.

111 Center Street Little Rock, AR 72201 501-377-2000 800-643-9691 www.stephens.com Member NYSE, SIPC
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Upstream Oil and Gas Initiation
Michael Scialla, Analyst

[email protected], 501-350-7626
Collin Nieman, Associate
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Company documents/website, Stephens Inc.

Page22
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Contents
Valuation Framework 4
Launch Summary 5
Natural Gas Macro Overview 7
Oil Macro Overview 11
Comparative Analysis 13
Company Specific Analysis
CTRA 16
RRC 23
CNX 30
EQT 37
CHK 44
ESTE 51
TALO 59
Appendix 67
Michael Scialla, Analyst

[email protected], 501-350-7626
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Stephens Inc.
Page33
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Valuation Framework
Valuation Framework
Natural Gas Producers:

We believe investors expect return of capital from no-growth gas
companies. Targets and ratings based on an equal weighting between:
1) 70% of our NAV estimate
2) FCF payout/EV
Mid Cap Oil Producers:

We believe investors expect FCF but willing to wait for payout from
early stage oil companies. Targets and ratings based on equal weighting
between:
1) 70% of NAV estimate
2) FCF/EV
NAV Methodology:
Based on bottoms up asset evaluation; NYMEX strip pricing 2023-2025;
long-term oil and gas prices of $70 and $4 respectively.
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Stephens Inc. Page44

Summary – E&P Natural Gas Producers Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Company Name Ticker Rating

Current
Price
Target
Price Summary
% Diff.
Mkt. Cap Net Debt 2023E Production Mix
($ mil.) ($ mil.) Oil Gas NGL Estimates
Stephens
Production (Mboepd)
2023E
630
2024E
666
Cash Flow per Share
2023E
$4.88
2024E
$5.77
Coterra Energy Inc. CTRA OW $25.56 $32.00 25% $19,637 $1,498 14% 74% 12%
Street 631 657 $4.78 $5.35
Summarized Investment Conclusion
Best in class FCF/unit, balance sheet and drilling inventory. Highest payout/EV in gas group. Pivot from variable dividend to share repurchases and data alleviating concerns over depth/quality of
remaining Marcellus drilling locations (30% of inventory) could be catalysts. Liquids exposure limits 2023 gas downside. 2025 gas unhedged when LNG export demand and prices could gap higher.
Current Target Mkt. Cap Net Debt 2023E Production Mix Production (Mboepd) Cash Flow per Share
Company Name Ticker Rating Price Price % Diff. ($ mil.) ($ mil.) Oil Gas NGL Estimates 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E
Stephens 356 357 $5.62 $7.04
Range Resources RRC OW $25.65 $34.00 33% $6,172 $1,842 2% 70% 28%
Street 358 367 $4.63 $5.75
Insulated against 2023 gas price weakness with hedges (67% of gas) and liquids (30% of production). Unhedged 2025 when LNG export demand could gap higher. Best-in-class capital intensity, low
decline rate, low well costs, deep inventory. Strong balance sheet allows most FCF to buy back shares. GHG emissions below 0.3 tons/MMcfe leads industry. Targeting net zero Scope 1 and 2 by 2025.
Stephens 260 266 $4.42 $4.98
CNX Resources Corporation CNX EW $15.50 $17.00 10% $2,637 $2,184 0% 93% 7%
Street 259 268 $4.71 $5.24
Committed to returning capital. Repurchased 24% of shares OS over past 9 quarters. Insulated against 2023 gas price weakness with 74% volumes hedged plus deep, low break-even inventory. Hedges
covering 61% of 2025 gas limit potential rebound with expanded LNG exports. Debt reduction may consume some FCF given higher than peer leverage (YE22 1.7x vs 0.9x).
Stephens 1056 1066 $9.31 $12.28

EQT Corporation EQT EW $32.73 $36.00 10% $11,795 $3,848 1% 94% 5%
Street 937 1013 $7.31 $9.70
Largest gas producer in U.S. Should increase payout if gas prices rise with increased LNG demand in 2025. High quality inventory lacks depth of competitors. Potential downside to 2023 and 2024 gas
prices underpins our preference for peers with meaningful liquids exposure.
Chesapeake Energy Stephens 631 604 $19.19 $18.85

CHK EW $80.99 $91.00 12% $10,911 $2,901 3% 95% 2%
Corporation Street 613 588 $17.34 $19.34
High quality Marcellus and Haynesville gas assets. 2022 payout/FCF of 91% second highest in gas group. Net proceeds of $1.7B from Eagle Ford divestitures should pay off credit facility and position CHK
to lead group in 2023 payout/FCF. Despite well-hedged 2023 volumes, potential downside to 2023 and 2024 gas strip underpins our preference for peers with meaningful liquids exposure.
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Factset Research Systems, Company documents/website, Stephens Inc. Page55
Summary – E&P Oil Producers, Macro Outlook Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Company Name Ticker Rating

Current
Price
Target
Price Summary
% Diff.
Mkt. Cap Net Debt 2023E Production Mix
($ mil.) ($ mil.) Oil Gas NGL Estimates
Production (Mboepd)
2023E 2024E
Cash Flow per Share
2023E 2024E
Stephens 101 106 $9.82 $10.32

Earthstone Energy, Inc. ESTE OW $13.85 $19.00 37% $1,471 $1,054 39% 33% 27%
Street 101 105 $6.96 $8.53
EV< ~50% of our proven reserves and < proven developed producing reserves. Valuation reflects private equity selling pressure and Tier 2 Permian assets. Improved balance sheet and >$350MM of
2023 FCF positions company to repurchase shares. Recent acquisition included Permian Core assets where near-term drilling will be focused.
Stephens 74 87 $7.52 $8.03

Talos Energy, Inc. TALO OW $13.98 $20.00 43% $1,767 $541 73% 20% 7%
Street 75 83 $7.53 $9.23
Cheapest stock in mid-cap oil group with EV < proved developed producing reserves estimate. NAV estimate excludes value for world class Zama discovery (could be worth ~$500MM). Early mover in
emerging CCUS business where have 4 storage sites and numerous partners including CVX. Future CCUS agreements with emitters potential catalysts. Private equity ownership now 25% vs 69% in 1Q20.
Natural Gas Macro Outlook
Potential downside to 2023/2024 NYMEX gas strip prices, which project ~$4/MMBtu by YE23. Storage flipped from 8% deficit to 20% surplus over past winter despite higher degree days vs 2021/2022
winter. Muted industry response to gas price collapse (gas rig count up 5% YTD). Market oversupplied until meaningful LNG export demand additions in 4Q24 and 2025, which support long-term $4.
Oil Macro Outlook
Bullish near-term barring severe recession. Market oversupply could flip to deficit with limited supply additions from U.S. and Russia and potential Chinese demand growth. OPEC policy and low spare
capacity puts floor under prices in moderate recession scenario. Low product stocks and high refinery utilization imply strong demand. Long-term WTI forecast of $70 assumes peak demand by 2030.
More extensive information on each stock can be found within the

company specific reports published concurrent with this report
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Factset Research Systems, Company documents/website, Stephens Inc. Page66
Natural Gas Macro Overview Industry Note
April 24, 2023
U.S. Natural Gas Storage (Bcf) EIA U.S. Natural Gas Supply/Demand Forecast
4,500
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E
4,000 Supply (Bcfpd)
Total Dry Gas Production .................... 92.86 91.52 94.51 98.09 100.87 101.58
3,500 LNG Gross Imports ............................. 0.14 0.13 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.06
Pipeline Gross Imports ........................ 7.37 6.84 7.64 8.22 7.40 7.42
3,000 Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ............. 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
Total Supply ........................................... 100.54 98.67 102.40 106.56 108.52 109.25

2,500
2,000
Demand (Bcfpd)
1,500 Residential ........................................... 13.83 12.80 13.03 13.75 13.35 13.95
Commercial ......................................... 9.67 8.68 9.09 9.69 9.65 9.80
1,000 Industrial .............................................. 23.07 22.30 22.74 23.18 22.86 22.24
Electric Power (c) ................................ 30.92 31.76 30.75 33.16 32.65 31.22
500 Lease and Plant Fuel .......................... 4.99 4.94 5.21 5.43 5.57 5.61
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Pipeline and Distribution Use ............. 2.79 2.78 3.10 3.26 3.20 3.16
5-Year Range 5-Year Avg 2022 2023 Vehicle Use .......................................... 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
LNG Gross Exports ............................. 4.98 6.53 9.74 10.59 12.08 12.73
U.S. Natural Gas Storage Withdrawals vs Degree Days Pipeline Gross Exports ........................ 7.78 7.91 8.47 8.31 8.81 9.31
Total Demand ......................................... 98.18 97.84 102.25 107.52 108.33 108.16

300
Surplus / Deficit () 2.36 0.83 0.14 (0.96) 0.18 1.08
Winter 2021-2022 Winter 2022-2023
250
Linear (Winter 2021-2022) Linear (Winter 2022-2023)

200
150 y = 2.0374x - 271.85

R² = 0.9346 8% U.S. natural gas storage deficit reversed to 20% surplus
100 y = 2.0071x - 242.07
R² = 0.8986
over past winter.
50
Storage reversal was not due to weather.

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
-50 EIA estimates market oversupplied in 2023 and 2024.

-100
-150
Stephens Inc. Source(s): EIA, Stephens Estimates Page77

April 24, 2023
U.S. Rig Count vs. Dry Gas Production (Bcfpd)

120 1800
1600
100
1400
80 1200
Gas rig count +4% YTD.
1000
60
800 Oil rig count -5% YTD.
40 600
400 U.S. dry gas production

20
200 up ~2% YTD.
0 0
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production Ex-Permian (left) Permian Dry Gas Production (left) Oil Rigs (right) Gas Rigs (right)
Henry Hub Historical Spot and Futures Prices ($/MMBtu)

$10.00
U.S. futures prices
$8.00 rebound to nearly $4 by
YE23.
$6.00
$4.00
Market likely to remain
$2.00 oversupplied until YE24
$-
implies downside to 2H23
Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26 Jan-27 and 1H24 strip, in our
Historic Gas Price Futures Gas Price
view.
Stephens Inc. Source(s): EIA, Baker Hughes, Factset Research Systems Page88
April 24, 2023
U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas Export Capacity Existing and Under Construction (Bcf/d)
20 3 new LNG facilities to
increase export capacity by 5.7
15
Bcf/d
7.5 Bcf/d additional

10
brownfield project capacity
awaiting FID not illustrated
5
Global LNG demand expected
- to grow at ~3% CAGR (2022 -
2024E)
Liquefaction Capacity Under Construction
U.S. Annual Natural Gas Trade (Bcf/d) Global LNG Supply/ Demand Gap (Bcf/d)
10 120
5
100
0
80
-5
-10 60
-15
-5.3 40
-7.5
-20 -10.5 -10.9
-14.0 20
-25
2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E
-
Pipeline imports LNG imports Pipeline exports LNG exports Net trade 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
LNG supply in operation LNG supply under construciton Demand forecast range
Stephens Inc. Source(s): EIA liquefaction file, EIA December 2022 STEO, Shell 2022 Outlook Report Page99
April 24, 2023
Marcellus Production (Mcfe/d) Utica Production (Mcfe/d) Haynesville Production (Mcfe/d)

30,000 140 10,000 50 16,000 250
9,000 45
120 14,000
25,000
8,000 40 200
12,000
100 7,000 35
20,000
10,000
6,000 30 150
80
15,000 5,000 25 8,000
60
4,000 20 100
6,000
10,000
3,000 15
40
4,000
2,000 10 50
5,000
20 2,000
1,000 5
0 0 0 0 0 0
Daily Gas (MMcfe) Daily Oil (MMcfe) Horizontal Rigs Daily Gas (MMcfe) Daily Oil (MMcfe) Horizontal Rigs Daily Gas (MMcf) Daily Oil (MMcfe) Horizontal Rigs
Natural Gas Play PVI10 (NYMEX oil and gas prices of $70 and $4 respectively)
4.00 3.83
Marcellus
3.15
Utica 2.90
3.00 Haynesville
2.33 2.34 2.38 2.42 2.44
1.93 1.97 1.98 2.05
1.77 1.80 1.86 1.87 1.88
2.00 1.62 1.70
1.41 1.54 1.54
1.22 1.23 1.30
1.02
1.00
0.00
Stephens Inc. Page10

10
Source(s): Enverus, Baker Hughes Rig Count, Stephens Inc.
Oil Macro Overview Industry Note
April 24, 2023
U.S. Crude Inventory EIA Global Oil Supply/Demand Forecast

600
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E
Total Crude Inventory (MMboe)
550 Production (Mmbblpd)

OECD ..................................................................
500
U.S. (50 States) .............................................. 19.53 18.62 18.96 20.20 21.14 21.62
450 Canada ............................................................ 5.48 5.24 5.54 5.68 5.91 6.16

Mexico ............................................................... 1.92 1.93 1.92 1.90 1.96 1.94
400 Other OECD .................................................... 4.60 4.81 4.68 4.44 4.87 5.03
350 OPEC ................................................................ 34.61 30.70 31.65 34.17 33.69 34.65

Former Soviet Union ...................................... 14.60 13.44 13.74 13.81 13.59 13.51
300 China ................................................................ 4.86 4.86 4.99 5.12 5.26 5.24
Other Non-OECD ........................................... 14.70 14.30 14.17 14.51 14.88 15.12
5-Yr Avg 2022 2023
Total World Production ................................... 100.30 93.90 95.66 99.84 101.30 103.25
U.S. Gasoline Inventory (Mmboe) Consumption (Mmbblpd)
270 U.S. (50 States) .............................................. 20.54 18.19 19.88 20.28 20.36 20.69
Total Gasoline Inventory (Mboe/d)
260 Canada ............................................................ 2.49 2.19 2.28 2.29 2.29 2.31
250 Europe .............................................................. 14.30 12.42 13.11 13.51 13.54 13.53

Japan ................................................................ 3.77 3.36 3.42 3.37 3.29 3.24
240
Other OECD .................................................... 6.53 5.74 5.99 6.36 6.36 6.39
230
Non-OECD
220
Eurasia ............................................................. 4.88 4.53 4.67 4.52 4.52 4.67
210
Europe .............................................................. 0.77 0.71 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.77
200
China ................................................................ 14.01 14.44 15.27 15.15 15.87 16.25
190 Other Asia ........................................................ 13.69 12.34 13.15 13.70 14.06 14.64
Other Non-OECD ........................................... 19.79 17.56 18.48 19.36 19.72 20.13
5-Yr Avg 2022 2023
Total World Consumption .............................. 100.89 91.59 97.11 99.44 100.88 102.72
U.S. Refinery Utilization Surplus / Deficit () (0.60) 2.32 (1.45) 0.40 0.42 0.52
100
95
Low product stocks and OPEC policy likely to support oil
90
prices barring severe recession.
85 U.S. gasoline inventory remains below low end of 5-year
range despite rebound in crude inventories and high
Percent
80
75 utilization.
70 EIA forecasting oversupplied market in 2023 and 2024
65
although constraints on U.S. and Russia production could
60
cause surplus to reverse to deficit implying upside to current
5-Yr Avg 2022 2023 prices.
Stephens Inc. Source(s): EIA, Stephens Inc.
Page11
11
Oil Macro Overview Industry Note
April 24, 2023
U.S. Production (Mmboe/d) Permian Production (Mboe/d)

35 2500 10,000 600
9,000
30 500
2000 8,000
25 7,000
400
1500 6,000
20
5,000 300
15 4,000
1000
200
10 3,000
500 2,000
100
5
1,000
0 0 0 0
Daily Oil (Mmbbl/d) (left) Daily Gas (Mmboe/d) (left) Rig Count (right) Daily Oil (Mbbls/d) (left) Daily Gas (Mboe/d) (left) Rigs (right)
Oil Play PVI10

6.00
Permian
Non- Permian 4.87
5.00
3.92 4.04
4.00 3.46 3.59
3.25 3.34 3.51 3.62
3.06 3.13 3.42
3.25
2.82 3.05 3.06
PVI10
3.00 2.67
2.20 2.32 2.40 2.46
1.95 2.05 2.13
1.89 2.01
1.60 1.93
2.00 1.38 1.43 1.64
1.13 1.24 1.35 1.38 1.43
1.22
1.00
0.00

12
Source(s): Enverus, Baker Hughes Rig Count, Stephens Inc.
E&P Superior FCF Yields and EBITDA Multiples Industry Note
April 24, 2023
2023E Dividend Yield and FCF/EV by Sector

9.0%
7.0%
5.0%
3.0%
1.0%
-1.0%
2023E Div Yield 2023E FCF/EV
2023E EV/EBITDA by Sector

20.0x
18.0x
16.0x
14.0x
12.0x
10.0x
8.0x
6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
0.0 x

13
Source(s):, Stephens Inc. Factset Research Systems
Natural Gas E&P Comps Industry Note
April 24, 2023
FCF Yield FCF/EV EV/EBITDA NAV

Company Ticker Rating 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 $/sh P/NAV
Natural Gas
Antero Resources Corp. AR NA 31% 6% 13% 18% 3% 7% 4.9x 8.0x 5.9x 40.21 59%
Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK EW 19% 6% 7% 18% 5% 6% 3.8x 5.5x 5.1x 121.95 66%
CNX Resources Corp. CNX EW 18% 7% 7% 13% 5% 5% 4.3x 5.1x 4.6x 24.11 69%
Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK NA 22% -9% 3% 13% -5% 2% 3.1x 4.7x 3.5x 16.83 66%
Coterra Energy, Inc. CTRA OW 18% 8% 8% 18% 7% 7% 3.2x 5.3x 4.7x 33.09 78%
EQT Corp. EQT EW 13% 14% 23% 12% 12% 19% 5.1x 5.1x 3.6x 54.16 61%
Gulfport Energy Corp. GPOR NA 17% 13% 18% 12% 9% 13% 2.8x 3.3x 2.7x 88.22 92%
Range Resources Corp. RRC OW 24% 11% 14% 20% 9% 11% 3.6x 6.3x 5.2x 42.92 64%
Southwestern Energy Co. SWN NA 16% 1% 12% 9% 0% 6% 3.4x 4.1x 3.1x 10.20 51%
Average 20% 6% 12% 15% 5% 8% 3.8x 5.2x 4.3x 67%
Net Debt (MM) Net Debt/EBITDA EBITDA/Interest Exp

Company 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024
Natural Gas
Antero Resources Corp. $1,259 $1,520 $1,056 0.4x 1.0x 0.5x 25x 14x 22x
Chesapeake Energy Corp. $2,901 $497 $344 0.6x 0.2x 0.1x 28x 24x 18x
CNX Resources Corp. $2,184 $2,135 $2,084 1.7x 2.1x 1.9x 10x 8x 8x
Comstock Resources, Inc. $2,098 $2,415 $2,432 1.1x 2.2x 1.6x 11x 7x 9x
Coterra Energy, Inc. $1,498 $1,258 $847 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 96x 93x 104x
EQT Corp. $4,220 $5,065 $2,901 1.2x 1.3x 0.5x 14x 15x 22x
Gulfport Energy Corp. $687 $598 $457 0.9x 0.8x 0.5x 13x 12x 15x
Range Resources Corp. $1,842 $1,560 $1,204 0.8x 1.1x 0.7x 14x 12x 14x
Southwestern Energy Co. $4,346 $4,261 $3,458 1.3x 1.7x 1.1x 18x 16x 22x
Average $2,337 $2,146 $1,643 0.9x 1.2x 0.8x 25x 22x 26x
Stephens Inc. Note: Stephens estimates used for RRC, CNX, EQT, CHK, and CTRA, Consensus estimates for all others Page14
14
Source(s): Factset Research Systems, Bloomberg L.P., Company documents/website, Stephens Inc.
Mid-Cap Oil E&P Comps Industry Note
April 24, 2023
FCF Yield FCF/EV EV/EBITDA NAV
Company Ticker Rating 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 $/sh P/NAV
Mid Cap Oil
Civitas Resources, Inc. CIVI NA 22% 15% 16% 23% 16% 16% 2.0x 3.0x 3.0x 89.93 82%
Callon Petroleum Co. CPE NA 30% 16% 19% 14% 8% 9% 2.5x 2.9x 2.7x 92.30 41%
California Resources Corp. CRC NA 11% 14% 12% 10% 13% 11% 4.4x 4.2x 4.2x 67.22 61%
Denbury Inc. DEN NA 3% 2% 0% 3% 2% 0% 8.2x 8.1x 7.7x 165.40 57%
Earthstone Energy, Inc. ESTE OW 27% 19% 26% 17% 10% 12% 2.8x 2.5x 2.2x 28.90 51%
Vital Energy, Inc. VTLE NA 27% 15% 5% 12% 6% 2% 2.2x 2.1x 2.2x 125.74 42%
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. MGY NA 16% 8% 9% 16% 8% 9% 3.2x 3.9x 3.6x 33.54 69%
Matador Resources Co. MTDR NA 21% 7% 11% 18% 6% 9% 3.6x 3.7x 3.0x 84.06 63%
Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. NOG NA 16% 18% 24% 10% 12% 15% 3.9x 3.2x 2.9x 52.35 67%
Chord Energy Corp. CHRD NA 18% 16% 21% 18% 17% 22% 2.7x 2.4x 2.0x 193.98 75%
PDC Energy, Inc. PDCE NA 25% 16% 17% 20% 13% 13% 2.8x 3.1x 2.8x 113.28 61%
Permian Resources Corp. PR NA 10% 14% 16% 7% 10% 11% 5.2x 3.6x 3.2x 16.33 69%
Ranger Oil Corp. ROCC NA 10% 9% 15% 9% 8% 13% 2.7x 2.2x 1.9x 65.76 66%
SM Energy Co. SM NA 26% 15% 16% 19% 11% 12% 2.9x 2.7x 2.5x 67.17 46%
Talos Energy, Inc. TALO OW 13% 8% 20% 8% 4% 10% 2.8x 1.6x 1.4x 38.75 39%
Average 17% 12% 15% 13% 9% 11% 3.4x 3.1x 2.9x 59%
Net Debt (MM) Net Debt/EBITDA EBITDA/Interest Exp
Company 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024
Mid Cap Oil
Civitas Resources, Inc. -$350 -$350 -$386 NM NM NM 74x 61x 61x
Callon Petroleum Co. $2,238 $1,892 $1,542 1.3x 1.3x 1.0x 22x 10x 12x
California Resources Corp. $293 $260 $209 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 16x 15x 14x
Denbury Inc. $49 -$17 $168 0.1x NM 0.3x 146x 265x 207x
Earthstone Energy, Inc. $1,054 $727 $352 1.0x 0.6x 0.3x 17x 13x 14x
Vital Energy, Inc. $1,069 $1,105 $1,038 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 7x 8x 8x
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. -$190 -$225 -$249 NM NM NM 59x 48x 53x
Matador Resources Co. $613 $1,713 $1,115 0.3x 0.9x 0.5x 32x 19x 24x
Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. $1,523 $1,538 $1,103 1.4x 1.1x 0.7x 14x 14x 17x
Chord Energy Corp. -$174 -$439 -$763 NM NM NM 54x 60x 70x
PDC Energy, Inc. $1,334 $1,035 $803 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x 41x 37x 45x
Permian Resources Corp. $2,076 $1,578 $1,144 1.4x 0.7x 0.4x 16x 17x 20x
Ranger Oil Corp. $608 $461 $154 0.8x 0.5x 0.1x 15x 19x 24x
SM Energy Co. $1,127 $912 $688 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 16x 17x 19x
Talos Energy, Inc. $541 $658 $408 0.6x 0.6x 0.3x 7x 7x 8x
Average $733 $678 $460 0.6x 0.5x 0.3x 34x 39x 38x
Stephens Inc. Note: Stephens estimates used for ESTE, and TALO, Consensus estimates for all others Page15
15
Source(s): Factset Research Systems, Bloomberg L.P.,Company documents/website, Stephens Inc.
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA)

OW, $32 Target Price
2023 Best Idea
Stephens Inc.
Source(s): company documents/website, Stephens Inc.
Page16
16
Introduction to Coterra Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Overview Stock Information
• Ticker CTRA
• Headquarters Houston, TX
• Merger / First Traded 2021 / 2021
• Share Price (as of 4/21/2023) $25.46
• YTD Return 6.2%
• Avg. Daily $ Volume $222 mil.
• Market Cap $19.6 bil.
Houston, Texas based Coterra Energy (CTRA) is a
• Enterprise Value $21.1 bil.
domestic independent oil and gas company with
• Debt $2.2 bil.
operations in the Appalachian Basin, Permian Basin, and
• Cash $683 mil.
Anadarko Basin. The company’s 4Q22 production was
• Leverage (2023E) 0.3x
3.79 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d). YE22
• Short Interest (% of float) 5.7%
proved reserves were 14.4 trillion cubic feet of gas
• Short Interest (days to cover) 4.0 days
equivalent (Tcfe) (76% developed and comprised of 78%
natural gas, 12% NGLs, and 10% oil). CTRA LTM % Change vs. XOP
30%
20%
10%
Estimates 0%
(10%)
CTRA 2023E 2024E
(20%)
$ mil. Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff
Production (30%)
630 631 (0.2%) 666 657 1.3%
(Mboe/d)
Revenue $5,764 $6,055 (4.8%) $6,596 $6,572 0.4% CTRA XOP
Adj. EBITDAX $4,113 $4,208 (2.3%) $4,556 $4,742 (3.9%) Ratings Distribution (incl. Stephens)
Adj. EPS $2.50 $2.35 6.1% $2.99 $2.83 5.4%
OW EW UW
FCF $1,539 $1,535 0.3% $1,612 $1,826 (11.7%)
10 17 1
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Factset Research Systems, company documents/website, Stephens Inc. Page17
17
Acreage and Reserves Industry Note
April 24, 2023
CTRA Acreage CTRA Proved Reserve Breakdown

Proved Reserves Split by Asset
9%
29%
62%
Permain Marcellus Anadarko
by Category
24%
76%
Inventory Analysis
Developed Undeveloped
2.50 CTRA
2.00 CHK RRC by Commodity
SWN CNX
EQT
1.50 CRK
PVI10 10%
1.00
12%
0.50
78%
0.00
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
Years
Gas NGL Oil

Stephens Inc. Source(s): Enverus, company documents/website, Stephens Inc.
Page18
18
Investment Thesis Overview Industry Note
April 24, 2023
1 Best-in-Class FCF per Unit

▪ CTRA’s 2022 cash flow/Mcfe and 2022 FCF/Mcfe were the best in our natural gas peer group.
▪ We forecast CTRA’s 2023 CF/Mcfe and FCF/Mcfe will remain best in our group.
▪ Company’s 4Q22 annualized dividend yield of 9.4% (3.3% base, 6.1% variable) was 5th highest of any company in the S&P 500.
▪ CTRA’s 2023 projected payout/EV is highest in our gas group.
2 Best-in-Class Drilling Inventory

▪ We estimate CTRA has >16 years of drilling inventory based on 2022 activity.
▪ We estimate the inventory will generate a PVI10 of 2.1x, highest in our gas peer group, based on recent strip and our long- term pricing.
▪ Majority of the inventory is comprised of high quality Marcellus locations (67% Upper, 33% Lower) and Permian locations.
3 Fortress Balance Sheet

▪ YE22 net debt/EBITDA of 0.2x lowest in our peer group. YE23 and YE24 projections near low end of group.
▪ Interest coverage best in group by far for 2022, 2023, and 2024.
▪ Debt rated investment grade by all 3 rating agencies.
4 Reducing Emissions
▪ CTRA reduced its GHG emissions intensity 43% since 2019 to 5.45 tons/Boe. Targeting another 10% reduction in 2023.
▪ 16 midstream electric compressors by YE23 vs 4 in 2022 will reduce emissions by 300K tons/yr. Could electrify 75% of compressors by 2027.
▪ Cut methane intensity by 77% from 2019 to 2022 to 0.038%. Targeting another 17% reduction in 2023.
▪ Lowered flare intensity by 77% from 2019 to 2022.
5 Exposure to Potential Natural Gas Price Rebound

▪ Unhedged in 2025 when we expect natural gas prices to rebound.
▪ Hedged only 17% of 2023 gas volumes but with attractive average floor price of $4.29/MMBtu.
Source(s): Company documents/website, Stephens Inc.

19
Valuation Industry Note
April 24, 2023
CTRA Valuation and Price Target Net Asset Value Estimate

MMBoe Bcfe $MM $/Share $/Boe $/Mcfe
PV-10 of PDP 1,823 10,939 13,451 17.30 7.38 1.23
PV-10 of PUD 584 3,502 1,495 1.92 2.56 0.43
Midstream / Utility
Proved Assets 2,407 14,442 14,945 19.22 6.21 1.03
Working Capital 189 0.24 0.08 0.01

Net Debt (1,432) (1.84) (0.60) (0.10)
G&A (2,499) (3.21) (1.04) (0.17)
We are initiating coverage of CTRA with an OW Hedge Value 142 0.18 0.06 0.01
rating. Our 12-month price target of $32/share is Options / Convertibles
Preferred Shares
(12)
0
(0.02)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
based on an equal weighting between 70% of our ARO (271) (0.35) (0.11) (0.02)
Proved NAV 2,407 14,442 11,062 14.23 4.60 0.77
NAV target and our 2023E payout/EV peer
Culberson Bone Spring 410 2,458 1,945 2.50 4.75 0.79
average. Culberson Wolfcamp 729 4,374 2,804 3.61 3.85 0.64
Eddy Bone Spring 283 1,697 1,000 1.29 3.54 0.59
Eddy Wolfcamp 92 553 530 0.68 5.74 0.96
The stock is valued at a slight premium to our 70% Lea Bone Spring 135 808 1,031 1.33 7.66 1.28
Lea Wolfcamp 383 2,299 2,565 3.30 6.69 1.12
NAV target and a large discount to our 2023E Reeves Bone Spring 26 154 205 0.26 7.98 1.33
Reeves Wolfcamp 445 2,673 1,703 2.19 3.82 0.64
payout/EV peer average. Upper Marcellus 1,015 6,088 1,926 2.48 1.90 0.32
Lower Marcellus 565 3,393 1,518 1.95 2.68 0.45
Anadarko 342 2,054 935 1.20 2.73 0.46
Resource 4,425 26,550 16,161 20.79 3.65 0.61
Resource Less PUD 3,841 23,048 14,666 18.86 3.82 0.64
Total NAV 6,248 37,490 25,728 33.09 4.12 0.69
Stock Price Payout/EV NAV PO-NAV Target

Company Ticker Rating 4/14/23 Target % Diff 2022 2023 2024 $/sh P/NAV PO/EV 70% NAV
Natural Gas
Antero Resources Corp. AR NA $23.89 7.5% 3.6% 4.3% 40.21 59% 22.60 28.15
Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK EW $80.98 91 12% 16.0% 4.5% 5.4% 121.95 66% 96.06 85.37
CNX Resources Corp. CNX EW $16.57 17 4% 11.3% 4.0% 4.1% 24.11 69% 17.43 16.87
Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK NA $11.12 0.4% 1.3% 1.5% 16.83 66% 3.88 11.78
Coterra Energy, Inc. CTRA OW $25.76 32 25% 2.3% 6.0% 7.4% 33.09 78% 41.24 23.16
EQT Corp. EQT EW $33.14 36 8% 1.3% 3.8% 7.6% 54.16 61% 33.53 37.91
Gulfport Energy Corp. GPOR NA $81.48 11.3% 5.4% 5.4% 88.22 92% 117.32 61.75
Range Resources Corp. RRC OW $27.26 34 25% 5.4% 5.2% 6.6% 42.92 64% 37.90 30.04
Southwestern Energy Co. SWN NA $5.16 1.2% 0.1% 2.2% 10.20 51% 0.12 7.14
Average 6.3% 3.8% 4.9% 67%
20
Source(s): Factset Research Systems, Company documents/website, Stephens Inc.
FCF and Payout Comps Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Capital Intensity (Capex/ Boe/d) FCF/ Boe

$16.00 $22.00
$14.00
$17.00
$12.00
$10.00 $12.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$4.00 $2.00
$2.00
-$3.00
$0.00 CTRA RRC EQT GPOR AR CHK CNX SWN CRK
CRK CTRA CHK SWN GPOR CNX EQT AR RRC
2022 2023 2024
2022 2023 2024
2023E Return of Capital (as a % of FCF) 2023E Return of Capital (as a % of EV)
100% 7%
90%
6%
80%
70% 5%
60%
4%
50%
40% 3%
30% 2%
20%
1%
10%
0% 0%
CRK AR CHK CTRA CNX RRC GPOR EQT SWN CTRA GPOR RRC CHK CNX EQT AR CRK SWN
Fixed Dividend Variable/Special Dividend Share Repurchase Fixed Dividend Variable/Special Dividend Share Repurchase
Note: Stephens estimates used for RRC, CNX, EQT, CHK, and CTRA, Consensus estimates for all others
21
Catalysts and Risks Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Catalysts Risks
• Return of Capital: We project 2023-2025 FCF of $5.3B ($3.3B post- • Commodity price risk: A significant decline in natural gas demand and
dividend) based on recent NYMEX strip prices. Management shifting prices could cause us to lower our near-term cash flow and EBITDA
payout preference from variable dividend to share repurchases suggests estimates and/or our long-term price forecast and NAV estimate.
company could meaningfully reduce its share count during the period. • Inflationary risk: A change in oilfield service costs could cause us to
• Capital efficiency: CTRA’s NEPA Lower Marcellus wells completed 2018- raise our capital expenditure or operating cost estimates and lower our
2022 are among the best in the play. While the Upper Marcellus is less FCF and discretionary cash flow estimates.
productive, it is generating strong returns and can be capital efficiently • Regulatory risk: Governmental or regulatory changes could negatively
drilled with longer laterals than the Lower Marcellus. impact our outlook. An increase in taxes on oil and gas companies could
• Permian inventory: Promising results from a new Harkey Shale cause us to lower our cash flow estimates. Regulations could limit the
development have positive implications for our Permian inventory construction of pipelines and constrain or prevent production and/or
estimate. cause local natural gas prices to fall short of our estimates.
• Natural gas price rebound: U.S. natural gas prices should improve with • Execution risk: A tight labor market and supply chain issues could delay
new export capacity coming online in 4Q24 and 1H25. CTRA’s 2025 development including third-party midstream projects. In addition, our
natural gas production is currently unhedged. constructive long-term natural gas price outlook largely depends on
increased demand from additional LNG export capacity. A delay in these
projects could hurt demand and prices.
• Reserve risk: Productivity of new Marcellus wells could fall below our
forecast and amplify concerns over the quality and depth of the
remaining Appalachian inventory.

22
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Range Resources (RRC)

Stephens Inc.
Page23
23
Introduction to Range Resources Industry Note
April 24, 2023
• Ticker RRC
• Headquarters Fort Worth, TX
• Founded / First Traded 1976 / 1980
• Share Price (as of 4/21/2023) $25.50
• YTD Return 1.9%
Fort Worth, Texas based Range Resources Corporation • Enterprise Value $7.9 bil.
(RRC) is a domestic independent oil and gas company • Debt $1.8 bil.
operating in the Appalachian Basin where it holds • Cash $0 mil.
530,000 net acres, including 450,000 in southwest • Leverage (2023E) 1.1x
Pennsylvania (SWPA) and 70,000 in northeast • Short Interest (% of float) 3.8%
Pennsylvania (NEPA). The company’s 4Q22 production • Short Interest (days to cover) 2.1 days
was 2.2 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d).
YE22 proved reserves were 18.1 trillion cubic feet of gas RRC LTM % Change vs. XOP
equivalent (Tcfe) (60% developed and comprised of 65% 30%
natural gas, 34% NGLs, and 1% oil). 20%

10%
0%
Estimates (10%)
(20%)
RRC 2023E 2024E (30%)
$ mil. Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff
(40%)
Production
356 358 (0.7%) 357 367 (2.6%)
(Mboe/d)
RRC XOP
Revenue $2,987 $2,866 4.2% $3,315 $3,265 1.6%
Adj. EBITDAX $1,418 $1,301 9.0% $1,634 $1,594 2.5% Ratings Distribution (incl. Stephens)
Adj. EPS $3.09 $2.36 30.6% $4.03 $3.39 19.0%
OW EW UW
FCF $705 $562 25.5% $890 $785 13.4%
12 13 3
24
April 24, 2023
RRC Acreage RRC Proved Reserve Breakdown

PV10 by Category
37%
63%
Prod. Non Prod.
by Category
40%
60%
Inventory Analysis
2.50 Developed Undeveloped
CTRA
2.00 RRC by Commodity

SWN CHK CNX
EQT 2%
1.50
CRK
PVI10
1.00 34%
0.50
64%
0.00
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
Years
Stephens Inc. Gas NGL Oil Page25
25
Source(s): Enverus, company documents/website, Stephens Inc.
April 24, 2023
1 Best-in-Class Capital Intensity Drives FCF

▪ Lowest capital intensity in our peer group due to a low PDP decline rate and low well cost per lateral foot.
▪ RRC gas gathering and processing costs are set to decline by more than $0.20/Mcfe over the remainder of this decade as contracted gas
gathering fees improve.
▪ Reduced share count by 10% since implementing repurchase program in 2Q22.
2 Deep High Quality Drilling Inventory

▪ We estimate RRC has >29 years of drilling inventory based on 2022 activity.
▪ Majority of the inventory is comprised of high quality Marcellus locations in SWPA within the dry, wet, and super-rich gas windows.
3 Strong Balance Sheet

▪ Reduced debt by >$1.9B over past 4 years including >$1.0B last year. Plan to reduce net debt to $1.0B-$1.5B from $1.8B.
▪ Nearest debt maturity is 2025 when $750MM due.
▪ YE22 net debt/EBITDA of 0.8x below peer average.
4 Industry Best Emissions Intensity

▪ Reduced GHG emissions intensity >80% since 2011 to industry leading level below 0.30 tons/Mmcfe .
▪ Targeting net zero GHG Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2025.
▪ Company recycles all of the water it produces along with some competitors’ water. Cut freshwater use in half from 2017 to 2021.
5 Manageable Exposure to 2023 Nat Gas Price Weakness

▪ RRC has hedged 67% of our 2023 forecasted natural gas production with an average floor price of $3.52.
▪ We estimate oil and NGLs will comprise 48% of 2023 unhedged revenues.
▪ Unhedged in 2025 when we expect natural gas prices to rebound.

26
April 24, 2023
Net Asset Value Estimate
RRC Valuation and Price Target MMBoe Bcfe $MM $/Share $/Boe $/Mcfe
PV-10 of PDP 1,822 10,933 8,476 35.93 4.65 0.78
PV-10 of PUD 1,191 7,144 3,966 16.81 3.33 0.56
Midstream / Utility
Proved Assets 3,013 18,078 12,442 52.74 4.13 0.69
Working Capital (326) (1.38) (0.11) (0.02)

We are initiating coverage of RRC with an OW Net Debt (1,757) (7.45) (0.58) (0.10)
rating. Our 12-month price target of $34/share is G&A (1,662) (7.05) (0.55) (0.09)
Hedge Value 247 1.05 0.08 0.01
based on an equal weighting between 70% of our Options / Convertibles (26) (0.11) (0.01) (0.00)
NAV estimate and our 2023E payout/EV peer Preferred Shares 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
ARO (118) (0.50) (0.04) (0.01)
average. Proved NAV 3,013 18,078 8,801 37.30 2.92 0.49
Southwest Marcellus Wet 7,416 44,499 2,580 10.94 0.35 0.06

The stock is valued at significant discounts to our Southwest Marcellus Dry 2,089 12,532 880 3.73 0.42 0.07
70% NAV target and to our 2023 payout/EV peer Southwest Marcellus Super Rich 2,332 13,992 1,042 4.41 0.45 0.07
average. Northeast Marcellus Dry 3,162
7,882
18,973
47,291
621
168
2.63
0.71
0.20
0.02
0.03
0.00
South Utica Dry
Resource 22,881 137,287 5,292 22.43 0.23 0.04
Total NAV 24,703 148,220 10,126 42.92 0.41 0.07

Natural Gas
EQT Corp. EQT EW $33.14 36 8% 1.3% 3.8% 7.6% 54.16 61% 33.53 37.91
Average 6.3% 3.8% 4.9% 67%
27
April 24, 2023

$16.00 $22.00
$14.00
$17.00
$12.00
$10.00 $12.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$4.00 $2.00
$2.00
-$3.00
2022 2023 2024
2022 2023 2024
100% 7%
90%
6%
80%
70% 5%
60%
4%
50%
40% 3%
30% 2%
20%
1%
10%
0% 0%
28
April 24, 2023
Catalysts Risks
• Share repurchases: The Company has reduced its share count by 10% • Commodity price risk: A significant decline in natural gas demand and
since initiating the buyback program in 2Q22. We forecast 2023 prices could cause us to lower our near-term cash flow and EBITDA
repurchases of $365MM or 50% of FCF and project the company will estimates and/or our long-term price forecast and NAV estimate. RRC
reduce its share count by more than 20% by YE25 from the YE22 level. is unhedged in 2025 and beyond, so the stock could underperform if
• Further debt reduction: Management remains focused on debt natural gas prices do not respond to increased U.S. LNG export
reduction with a net debt target of $1.0B-$1.5B vs YE22 level of $1.8B. demand.
• Returns: With a shallower decline rate and deeper inventory than most • Inflationary risk: A change in oilfield service costs could cause us to
peers, RRC’s returns and maintenance capital requirements should raise our capital expenditure or operating cost estimates and lower our
continue to improve vs competitors. In addition, the company’s well FCF and discretionary cash flow estimates.
costs/ft are lower than the vast majority of competitors while its well • Regulatory risk: Governmental or regulatory changes could negatively
productivity/ft is in line or slightly better than peers. Recent well impact our outlook. An increase in taxes on oil and gas companies
productivity in the company’s wet gas and dry gas regions is in line to could cause us to lower our cash flow estimates. Regulations could
better than prior vintages. limit the construction of pipelines and constrain or prevent production
• Natural gas price rebound: U.S. natural gas prices should improve with and/or cause local natural gas prices to fall short of our estimates.
new export capacity coming online in 4Q24 and 1H25. RRC’s 2025 • Execution risk: A tight labor market and supply chain issues could delay
natural gas volumes are currently unhedged. development including third-party midstream projects. In addition, our
constructive long-term natural gas price outlook largely depends on
increased demand from additional LNG export capacity. A delay in
these projects could hurt demand and prices.
• Reserve risk: The productivity of new wells could fall below our
forecasts which could cause us to reduce our cash flow and NAV
estimates.

29
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
CNX Resources Corporation (CNX)

EW, $17 Target Price
Stephens Inc.
Page30
30
Introduction to CNX Industry Note
April 24, 2023
• Ticker CNX
• Headquarters Canonsburg, PA
• Share Price (as of 4/21/2023) $15.59
• YTD Return -7.6%
Canonsburg, PA based CNX Resources Corporation is an • Enterprise Value $5.0 bil.
independent oil and natural gas producer with • Debt $2.3 bil.
operations focused in Southwestern Appalachia where • Cash $21 mil.
the company holds 1.1 million (MM) net shale acres. • Leverage (2023E) 2.0x
The mid-sized company’s 4Q22 production was 1.26 • Short Interest (% of float) 15.5%
billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfepd). YE22 • Short Interest (days to cover) 7.6 days
proved reserves were 9.8 trillion cubic feet equivalent
(Tcfe) (57% developed and comprised of 94% natural CNX LTM % Change vs. XOP
gas, 6% NGLs, and 0% oil).
30%
20%
10%
Estimates 0%
(10%)
CNX 2023E 2024E
$ mil. Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff (20%)
Production (30%)
260 259 0.6% 266 268 (0.7%)
(Mboe/d)
(40%)
Revenue $1,689 $1,794 (5.9%) $2,055 $1,870 9.9%
Adj. EBITDAX $1,023 $1,067 (4.1%) $1,079 $1,137 (5.1%) CNX XOP
Ratings Distribution (incl. Stephens)

Adj. EPS $1.65 $1.66 (0.6%) $1.88 $1.93 (2.4%)
FCF $248 $263 (5.8%) $257 $347 (26.0%) OW EW UW

2 8 3
31
April 24, 2023
CNX Acreage CNX Proved Reserve Breakdown

Proved Reserves PV-10 by Category
28%
72%
Proved Reserves by Category
37%
63%
Inventory Analysis
2.50 Developed Undeveloped
CTRA
Proved Reserves by Commodity
2.00
CHK RRC
SWN CNX
EQT 6%
1.50
CRK
PVI10
1.00
0.50
94%
0.00
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
Years
Gas NGL Oil
Page32
32
April 24, 2023
1 Highly Capital Efficient

▪ One of lowest capital intensity levels in our peer group.
▪ However, discretionary cash flow and FCF per unit of production lag peer group average.
Deep High Quality Drilling Inventory

2 ▪ We estimate CNX has >26 years of drilling inventory based on 2022 activity.
▪ Majority of the inventory is comprised of high quality Marcellus locations in SWPA and CPA within the dry gas window.
▪ Utica locations in SWPA and CPA add inventory depth.
3 Return of Capital
▪ Management committed to returning capital via buybacks.
▪ Company repurchased 24% of outstanding shares over the past 9 quarters.
4 Long Runway to First Debt Maturity

▪ YE22 and YE23 net debt/EBITDA highest in group at 1.7x and 2.0x.
▪ CNX financially sound with liquidity of $1.5B and nearest debt maturity in 2026 when $331MM are due.
▪ Management targeting leverage of 1.5x in 1H23 suggesting some FCF will be directed to debt reduction.
5 Systematic Hedging Policy

▪ Protected against weak 2023 gas prices with 69% of our 2023 estimated gas volumes hedged with an avg floor of $3.20.
▪ Less exposure to expected 4Q24 and 2025 price rebound with 47% and 39% of volumes hedged with avg floors of $3.26 and $3.47, respectively.

33
April 24, 2023
CNX Valuation and Price Target Net Asset Value Estimate

PV-10 of PDP 1,037 6,221 4,876 23.94 4.70 0.78
PV-10 of PUD 1,634 9,807 1,536 7.54 0.94 0.16
Midstream / Utility
Proved Assets 2,671 16,028 6,412 31.48 2.40 0.40
Working Capital (132) (0.65) (0.05) (0.01)

Net Debt (2171) (10.66) (0.81) (0.14)
G&A (1045) (5.13) (0.39) (0.07)
We are initiating coverage of CNX with an EW rating. Hedge Value (56) (0.28) (0.02) (0.00)
Our 12-month price target of $17/share is based on an Options / Convertibles (5) (0.03) (0.00) (0.00)
Preferred Shares 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
equal weighting between 70% of our NAV estimate ARO (89) (0.44) (0.03) (0.01)
and our 2023E payout/EV peer average. Proved NAV 2,671 16,028 2,914 14.30 1.09 0.18
Shirley Pennsboro Marcellus 1,030 6,177 225 1.11 0.22 0.04

Shirley Pennsboro Utica - - 0 - - -
The stock is valued at modest discounts to both our 70% Ohio Utica Dry Gas 162 970 46 0.22 0.28 0.05
NAV target and our 2023 payout/EV peer average. CPA Marcellus 4,521 27,123 612 3.01 0.14 0.02
CPA Utica 4,181 25,086 594 2.92 0.14 0.02
SWPA Marcellus 5,545 33,268 1,816 8.92 0.33 0.05
SWPA Utica 2,257 13,541 238.9 1.17 0.11 0.02
Resource 17,694 106,166 3,533 17.34 0.20 0.03
Total NAV 18,731 112,388 4,910 24.11 0.26 0.04

Natural Gas
EQT Corp. EQT EW $33.14 36 8% 1.3% 3.8% 7.6% 54.16 61% 33.53 37.91
Average 6.3% 3.8% 4.9% 67%
34
April 24, 2023

$16.00 $22.00
$14.00
$17.00
$12.00
$10.00 $12.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$4.00 $2.00
$2.00
-$3.00
2022 2023 2024
2022 2023 2024
100% 7%
90%
6%
80%
70% 5%
60%
4%
50%
40% 3%
30% 2%
20%
1%
10%
0% 0%
35
April 24, 2023
Catalysts Risks
• Commodity price risk: A significant decline in natural gas demand and
• Share repurchases: Company has reduced its share count by 24% over prices could cause us to lower our near-term cash flow and EBITDA
the past 9 quarters. We forecast 2023 repurchases of >$200MM or 80% estimates and/or our long-term price forecast and NAV estimate.
of FCF and project the company will reduce its share count by 19% by • Inflationary risk: A change in oilfield service costs could cause us to
YE24 from the YE22 level. raise our capital expenditure or operating cost estimates and lower our
• Further debt reduction: Management is looking to reduce debt/EBITDA FCF and discretionary cash flow estimates.
to 1.5x from 1.7x at YE22 via debt reduction. • Regulatory risk: Governmental or regulatory changes could negatively
• Capital Efficiency: CNX’s well productivity/ft is among the best in the impact our outlook. An increase in taxes on oil and gas companies
areas where it operates while its well cost/ft is in line to slightly higher could cause us to lower our cash flow estimates. Regulations could
than peers. limit the construction of pipelines and constrain or prevent production
• Natural gas price rebound: U.S. natural gas prices should improve with and/or cause local natural gas prices (60%-70% of CNX volumes) to fall
new export capacity coming online in 4Q24 and 1H25 although CNX has short of our estimates.
more production hedged during this period than its peers. • Execution risk: A tight labor market and supply chain issues could delay
development including midstream projects. In addition, our
constructive long-term natural gas price outlook largely depends on
increased demand from additional LNG export capacity. A delay in
these projects could hurt demand and prices.
• Reserve risk: Our NAV estimate includes meaningful inventory from
the Utica Formation in central Pennsylvania where CNX has completed
very few wells.

36
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
EQT Corporation (EQT)

Stephens Inc.
Page37
37
Introduction to EQT Industry Note
April 24, 2023

• Ticker EQT
• Headquarters Pittsburgh, PA
• Share Price (as of 4/21/2023) $32.59
Pittsburgh, PA based EQT Corporation is an independent • Enterprise Value $15.9 bil.
oil and natural gas producer with operations focused in • Debt $ 5.7 bil.
Appalachia where the company holds 1.8 million (MM) • Cash $1.5 bil.
net shale acres (1.0MM core) in PA, WV, and OH. EQT is • Leverage (2023E) 1.4x
the largest natural gas producer in the U.S. with 4Q22 • Short Interest (% of float) 5.4%
production of 4.99 billion cubic feet equivalent per day • Short Interest (days to cover) 2.9 days
(Bcfepd). YE22 proved reserves were 25.0 trillion cubic
feet equivalent (Tcfe) (70% developed and comprised of EQT LTM % Change vs. XOP
95% natural gas and 5% NGLs and oil). $55 $180
$170
$50
$160
$45
Estimates $40
$150
$140
2023E 2024E $130

EQT $35
$ mil. Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff $120
$30
Production $110
951 937 1.4% 1062 1013 4.8% $25 $100
(Mboe/d)
Revenue $6,657 $6,317 5.4% $8,695 $7,839 10.9%

EQT (left) XOP (right)
Adj. EBITDAX $3,767 $3,480 8.3% $5,541 $4,871 13.8%
Adj. EPS $3.25 $2.29 42.0% $6.10 $4.50 35.6% Ratings Distribution (incl. Stephens)
FCF -$230 $1,078 (121%) $3,000 $2,247 33.5%
OW EW UW
17 6 0
38
April 24, 2023
EQT Acreage EQT Proved Reserve Breakdown

Proved Reserves PV-10 by Category
28%
72%
Proved Reserves by Category
30%
70%
Inventory Analysis
2.50
CTRA
Proved Reserves by Commodity
2.00 CHK RRC
SWN CNX 5%
EQT
1.50 CRK
PVI10
1.00
0.50
0.00
95%
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
Years

Gas NGL & Oil Page39
39
April 24, 2023
1 Capital Efficient
▪ EQT’s capex/Mcfe is near the low end of our natural gas peer group.
▪ Company’s FCF/Mcfe is above our peer group average.
High Quality Drilling Inventory

2 ▪ We estimate EQT has >16 years of drilling inventory based on 2022 activity.
▪ Majority of the inventory is comprised of high quality Marcellus locations in SWPA and NEPA.
3 All of the Above Approach to Return of Capital.

▪ Company open to returning capital via fixed and variable dividend and share repurchases.
▪ Debt reduction of $826MM outpaced returns to shareholders of $626MM.
▪ EQT has repurchased 5.4% of shares since YE21.
4 Strong Balance Sheet

▪ Investment grade credit rating.
▪ YE22 net debt/EBITDA of 1.2x strong, albeit above group average.
▪ Nearest debt maturity in February 2025.
5 Accretive Acquisitions
▪ Under new management, EQT acquired assets adjacent to legacy properties from CVX for less than PV10 of production in 2020.
▪ Acquisition of private Alta Resources in 2021 FCF accretive and improved debt metrics.
▪ Acquisition of private Tug Hill offsets legacy assets and adds depth to drilling inventory in liquids rich area. Expected to close 2Q23.
▪ Company has become largest natural gas producer in U.S. with 4Q22 gas volumes of 4.7 Bcfpd (~6% of U.S. total).

40
April 24, 2023
EQT Valuation and Price Target Net Asset Value Estimate

PV-10 of PDP 2,959 17,752 17,494 44.09 5.91 0.99
PV-10 of PUD 1,248 7,489 4,487 11.31 3.59 0.60
Midstream / Utility
Proved Assets 4,207 25,241 21,981 55.39 5.22 0.87
Working Capital (173) (0.44) (0.04) (0.01)

We are initiating coverage of EQT with an EW Net Debt (3,848) (9.70) (0.91) (0.15)
rating. Our 12-month price target of $36/share is G&A (341) (0.86) (0.08) (0.01)
based on an equal weighting between 70% of our Hedge Value 381 0.96 0.09 0.02
Options / Convertibles (13) (0.03) (0.00) (0.00)
NAV target and our 2023E payout/EV peer Preferred Shares 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
average. ARO 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Proved NAV 4,207 25,241 17,987 45.33 4.28 0.71
The stock is valued at a meaningful discount to Southern Pennsylvania Marcellus 14,857 89,142 2,424 6.11 0.16 0.03
our 70% NAV target and in line with our 2023E West Virginia Marcellus 17,243 103,457 2,894 7.29 0.17 0.03
Northeast Pennsylvania Marcellus 7,028 42,170 1,074 2.71 0.15 0.03
payout/EV peer average. Northeast Pennsylvania NonOp 4,081 24,488 1,324 3.34 0.32 0.05
Ohio Utica 1,934 11,605 274 0.69 0.14 0.02
Resource 45,144 270,862 7,991 20.14 0.18 0.03
Total NAV 48,102 288,614 21,491 54.16 0.45 0.07

Natural Gas
EQT Corp. EQT EW $33.14 36 8% 1.3% 3.8% 7.6% 54.16 61% 33.53 37.91
Average 6.3% 3.8% 4.9% 67%
41
April 24, 2023

$16.00 $22.00
$14.00
$17.00
$12.00
$10.00 $12.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$4.00 $2.00
$2.00
-$3.00
2022 2023 2024
2022 2023 2024
100% 7%
90%
6%
80%
70% 5%
60%
4%
50%
40% 3%
30% 2%
20%
1%
10%
0% 0%
42
April 24, 2023
Catalysts Risks
• Return of capital: Company has reduced its share count by 5.4% over • Commodity price risk: A significant decline in natural gas demand and
the past year. While the share count will increase by ~12% near mid- prices could cause us to lower our near-term cash flow and EBITDA
year with the Tug Hill acquisition, we expect post-dividend FCF to be estimates and/or our long-term price forecast and NAV estimate.
directed to repurchases. • Inflationary risk: A change in oilfield service costs could cause us to
• Further debt reduction: Management is looking to maintain raise our capital expenditure or operating cost estimates and lower our
debt/EBITDA in the 1.0x-1.5x range (based on $2.75 gas price), which FCF and discretionary cash flow estimates.
could include additional debt reduction. • Regulatory risk: Governmental or regulatory changes could negatively
• Tug Hill acquisition close: Accretive acquisition expected to close 2Q23 impact our outlook. An increase in taxes on oil and gas companies
will boost drilling inventory in liquids rich portion of Marcellus, lower could cause us to lower our cash flow estimates. Regulations could
EQT’s corporate break-even gas price and add integrated midstream limit the construction of pipelines and constrain or prevent production
assets. and/or cause local natural gas prices to fall short of our estimates.
• Capital efficiency: Improving frac crew efficiency in 2022 should • Execution risk: A tight labor market and supply chain issues could delay
continue into 2023. Capital efficiency expected to improve in 2024+ as development including third-party midstream projects. In addition, our
EQT TIL count normalizes. In addition, the company is testing a new well constructive long-term natural gas price outlook largely depends on
design this year that could improve future returns. increased demand from additional LNG export capacity. A delay in
• Energy transition: EQT collaborating with leading companies to these projects could hurt demand and prices. In addition, EQT’s
establish Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2). Brings acquisition of Tug Hill was delayed last year. Another delay could
150 participants to advance the production, use, and delivery of concern investors and cause us to lower our estimates.
hydrogen in Appalachia. • Reserve risk: The productivity of new wells could fall below our
• Natural gas price rebound: U.S. natural gas prices should improve with forecasts which could cause us to reduce our cash flow and NAV
new export capacity coming online in 4Q24 and 1H25. EQT’s 2025 estimates.
natural gas production is currently unhedged.

43
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK)

Stephens Inc.
Page44
44
Introduction to Chesapeake Industry Note
April 24, 2023
• Ticker CHK
• Headquarters Oklahoma City, OK
• Share Price (as of 4/21/2023) $80.85
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma based Chesapeake Energy • Enterprise Value $13.8 bil.
(CHK) is a domestic independent oil and gas company • Debt $3.1 bil.
with operations in the Appalachian Basin, Haynesville • Cash $192 mil.
Shale, and Eagle Ford Shale. The company’s 4Q22 • Leverage (2023E) 0.2x
production was 4.05 billion cubic feet equivalent per • Short Interest (% of float) 7.2%
day (Bcfe/d). YE22 proved reserves were 13.0 trillion • Short Interest (days to cover) 5.7 days
cubic feet of gas equivalent (Tcfe) (67% developed and
comprised of 87% natural gas, 9% NGLs, and 3% oil). CHK LTM % Change vs. XOP
30%
20%
Estimates 10%
0%
CHK 2023E 2024E
Production (20%)
631 613 3.0% 604 588 2.7%
(Mboe/d)
(30%)
Revenue $8,563 $4,652 84.1% $8,905 $4,670 90.7%
Adj. EBITDAX $2,910 $2,693 8.1% $3,040 $2,895 5.0% CHK XOP
Adj. EPS $5.96 $4.59 29.9% $6.30 $6.54 (3.7%) Ratings Distribution (incl. Stephens)
FCF $3,062 $689 344% $947 $674 40.6%
OW EW UW
14 6 0
45
April 24, 2023
CHK Acreage CHK Proved Reserve Breakdown

PV10 by Category
32%
68%
Prod. Non Prod.

by Category
33%
67%
Inventory Analysis
2.50
CTRA
by Commodity
2.00 RRC
SWN CHK CNX 3%
EQT
1.50
CRK 9%
PVI10
1.00
0.50
87%
0.00
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
Years
Gas NGL Oil
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Factset Research Systems, company documents/website, Stephens Inc.
Page46
46
April 24, 2023
1 High CF Per Unit

▪ CHK’s cash flow per unit is one of the highest in our natural gas peer group.
▪ The company’s 2023 payout/EV is above our peer average.
▪ 2023 payout should be a combination of fixed and variable dividends plus share repurchases.
2 Deep High Quality Drilling Inventory

▪ We estimate CHK has >24 years of drilling inventory based on its 2022 activity (excluding divested Eagle Ford assets).
▪ Majority of the inventory is comprised of high quality Marcellus locations in NEPA along with Haynesville locations.
3 Strengthening Balance Sheet.

▪ Proceeds from two Eagle Ford asset sales are likely to eliminate borrowings under CHK’s credit facility.
▪ We project net debt/EBITDA to decline to a best-in-group 0.2x at YE23 from 0.6x at YE22.
4 Low GHG Emissions Intensity

▪ Reduced GHG emissions intensity by >50% since 2020 to 0.38 tons/MMcfe.
▪ Cut methane intensity >50% to 0.05% in 2022, below most peers.
▪ All 2022 gas volumes certified as responsibly sourced gas.
▪ Targeting net zero GHG emissions by 2035.
▪ Agreement with Momentum Midstream exposes CHK to CCS project in Haynesville.
Hedging Protects 2023 Downside, 2025 Upside

5 ▪ CHK has hedged 64% of our 2023 gas production estimate with average floor of $3.36.
▪ Company also hedged 45% of our projected 2024 volumes with average floor of $3.75.
▪ Only 3% of 2025 gas production hedged.

47
April 24, 2023
CHK Valuation and Price Target Net Asset Value Estimate

PV-10 of PDP 1,452 8,710 12,335 84.70 8.50 1.42
PV-10 of PUD 720 4,321 3,202 21.99 4.45 0.74
Midstream / Utility
Proved Assets 2,172 13,031 15,537 106.69 7.15 1.19
Working Capital 200 1.37 0.09 0.02

We are initiating coverage of CHK with an EW Net Debt (2,891) (19.85) (1.33) (0.22)
rating. Our 12-month price target of $91/share is G&A (971) (6.67) (0.45) (0.07)
Hedge Value 495 3.40 0.23 0.04
based on an equal weighting between 70% of our Options / Convertibles (6) (0.04) (0.00) (0.00)
NAV target and our 2023E payout/EV peer Preferred Shares 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
(323) (2.22)
average. ARO (0.15) (0.02)
Proved NAV 2,172 13,031 12,040 82.67 5.54 0.92
The stock is valued at a modest discount to our Upper Marcellus 7,457 44,742 2,434 16.71 0.33 0.05
Lower Marcellus 9,025 54,151 3,736 25.65 0.41 0.07
70% NAV target and a meaningful discount to our Haynesville 6,678 40,071 1,725 11.85 0.26 0.04
2023E payout/EV peer average. Bossier 5,447 32,680 1,061 7.29 0.19 0.03
West Eagle Ford Austin Chalk 1,267 7,602 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Resource 29,874 179,245 8,956 61.50 0.30 0.05
Total NAV 31,326 187,955 17,794 122 0.57 0.09

Natural Gas
EQT Corp. EQT EW $33.14 36 8% 1.3% 3.8% 7.6% 54.16 61% 33.53 37.91
Average 6.3% 3.8% 4.9% 67%
48
April 24, 2023

$16.00 $22.00
$14.00
$17.00
$12.00
$10.00 $12.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$4.00 $2.00
$2.00
-$3.00
2022 2023 2024
2022 2023 2024
100% 7%
90%
6%
80%
70% 5%
60%
4%
50%
40% 3%
30% 2%
20%
1%
10%
0% 0%
49
April 24, 2023
Catalysts Risks
• Return of capital: Company paid out 91% of 2022 FCF, 2nd highest in our • Commodity price risk: A significant decline in natural gas demand and
gas peer group. Should continue to use combination of fixed and prices could cause us to lower our near-term cash flow and EBITDA
variable dividend along with share repurchases to return one of the estimates and/or our long-term price forecast and NAV estimate.
highest percentages of FCF in the group. Proceeds from asset sales • Inflationary risk: A change in oilfield service costs could cause us to
could enhance 2023 payout. raise our capital expenditure or operating cost estimates and lower our
• Investment grade rating: With $2.5B of net proceeds from recent Eagle FCF and discretionary cash flow estimates.
Ford sales, CHK is well positioned to pay off revolver ($1.05B at YE22). • Regulatory risk: Governmental or regulatory changes could negatively
Management anticipates CHK will achieve IG rating in the near future. impact our outlook. An increase in taxes on oil and gas companies
• Exposure to LNG pricing: Agreement with Gunvor will expose 265 could cause us to lower our cash flow estimates. Regulations could
MMcfpd of CHK gas to JKM pricing beginning 2027. Currently, 15%-20% limit the construction of pipelines and constrain or prevent production
of company volumes exposed to international prices. and/or cause local natural gas prices to fall short of our estimates.
• Capital efficiency: CHK’s NEPA Lower Marcellus wells completed 2018- • Execution risk: A tight labor market and supply chain issues could delay
2022 had best 12-month average rate/ft in our study although 2022 development including third-party midstream projects. Our
wells appear to be lagging prior vintages. Likewise, company’s constructive long-term natural gas price outlook largely depends on
Haynesville wells completed over same time frame also appear to have increased demand from additional LNG export capacity. A delay in
best 18-month average in play with newer vintages lagging older wells. these projects could hurt demand and prices. High gathering line
Line pressures and choke management likely contributing to newer well pressures could continue to adversely impact Haynesville production
performance. and cause us to lower our production and cash flow estimates.
• Midstream optimization: Momentum pipeline agreement should • Reserve risk: CHK believes choke management will improve recoveries
improve Haynesville gathering bottlenecks and exposes CHK to CCS from Haynesville wells. If lower initial rates from recent wells reflect
project. lower productivity rather than choke management or line pressure
• Natural gas price rebound: U.S. natural gas prices should improve with issues, we could reduce our cash flow and NAV estimates.
new export capacity coming online in 4Q24 and 1H25. Only 3% of CHK’s
2025 natural gas production is currently hedged.

50
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Earthstone Energy, Inc. (ESTE)

Stephens Inc.
Page51
51
Introduction to Earthstone Industry Note
April 24, 2023
• Ticker ESTE
• Share Price (as of 4/21/2023) $13.65
Houston, Texas based Earthstone Energy, Inc. (ESTE) is a • Enterprise Value $3.0 bil.
domestic independent oil and gas company operating in • Debt $1.1 bil.
the Permian Basin where it holds 212,000 net acres, • Cash $0
including 45,000 in the northern Delaware Basin and • Leverage (2022E) 0.6x
167,000 in the Midland Basin. The company’s 4Q22 • Short Interest (% of float) 18.7%
production was 105 thousand barrels of oil equivalent • Short Interest (days to cover) 6.3 days
per day (MBoepd) (45% oil, 31% natural gas, and 24%
NGLs). YE22 proved reserves were 368 million barrels of ESTE LTM % Change vs. XOP
oil equivalent (MMBoe) (72% developed and comprised 70%
60%
of 38% oil, 34% natural gas, and 29% NGLs). 50%
40%
30%
Estimates 20%
10%
0%
ESTE 2023E 2024E (10%)
Production (30%)
101 101 (0.4%) 106 105 1.4%
(Mboe/d)
Revenue $1,576 $1,740 (9.5%) $1,657 $1,920 (13.7%) ESTE XOP
Adj. EBITDAX $1,121 $1,158 (3.1%) $1,174 $1,313 (10.6%) Ratings Distribution (incl. Stephens)
Adj. EPS $3.32 $3.54 (6.5%) $3.61 $4.30 (16.0%)
OW EW UW
FCF $327 $368 (11.2%) $375 $496 (24.3%)
5 2 0
52
April 24, 2023
ESTE Acreage
RRC Proved Reserve Breakdown

by Commodity by Category PV10 by Category
28% 25%
34% 38%
72% 75%
29%
Oil NGL Gas Developed Undeveloped Prod. Non Prod.
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Enverus, company documents/website

Page53
53
April 24, 2023
1 Attractive Valuation
▪ The stock is valued at >20% discount to mid-cap peer group on price/NAV and > 30% on 2024 FCF/EV.
▪ Stock valued at only 50% of our proved NAV.
▪ PDP reserve value at recent strip > EV.
2 Proven Track Record of Value Add M&A

▪ Proved developed reserve value of 6 significant transactions > combined purchase price.
▪ 696 proved undeveloped locations essentially acquired for free.
3 Progressing Sustainability
▪ Reduced GHG emissions intensity 36% since 2020 to 7.9 t/Mboe.
▪ Reduced flaring intensity 68% since 2020 to 0.7%.
4 Strong Balance Sheet and FCF

▪ We project net debt/EBITDA to decline to 0.6x at YE23 from 1.0x at YE22.
▪ No debt maturities until 2027.
▪ Well positioned to implement shareholder return program with 2023E FCF > $350MM.
▪ Repurchase program could defend against private equity sales.
5 Hedges Insulate Near-Term Gas Price Weakness

▪ Hedged 34% of our 2023 estimated natural gas volumes with average floor price of $4.46/MMBtu.
▪ 2025 natural gas production unhedged.

54
April 24, 2023
ESTE Valuation and Price Target

Stock Price FCF/EV NAV FCF-NAV Target
Company Ticker Rating 4/14/23 Target % Diff 2022 2023 2024 $/sh P/NAV FCF/EV 70% NAV
Mid Cap Oil
Civitas Resources, Inc. CIVI NA $74.07 23% 16% 16% 89.93 0.82 111.74 62.95
Callon Petroleum Co. CPE NA $38.06 14% 8% 9% 92.30 0.41 32.10 64.61
California Resources Corp. CRC NA $41.13 10% 13% 11% 67.22 0.61 41.73 47.05
Denbury Inc. DEN NA $95.00 3% 2% 0% 165.40 0.57 0.78 115.78
Earthstone Energy, Inc. ESTE OW $14.76 18 23% 17% 10% 12% 28.90 0.51 15.96 20.23
Vital Energy, Inc. VTLE NA $52.50 12% 6% 2% 125.74 0.42 10.71 88.02
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. MGY NA $23.29 16% 8% 9% 33.54 0.69 19.85 23.48
Matador Resources Co. MTDR NA $52.80 18% 6% 9% 84.06 0.63 44.13 58.84
Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. NOG NA $35.06 10% 12% 15% 52.35 0.67 49.41 36.64
Chord Energy Corp. CHRD NA $144.81 18% 17% 22% 193.98 0.75 288.55 135.79
PDC Energy, Inc. PDCE NA $69.56 20% 13% 13% 113.28 0.61 86.76 79.30
Permian Resources Corp. PR NA $11.23 7% 10% 11% 16.33 0.69 11.77 11.43
Ranger Oil Corp. ROCC NA $43.60 9% 8% 13% 65.76 0.66 52.25 46.03
SM Energy Co. SM NA $30.94 19% 11% 12% 67.17 0.46 33.71 47.02
Talos Energy, Inc. TALO OW $15.06 21 37% 8% 4% 10% 38.75 0.39 14.03 27.13
Average 13% 9% 11% 77.82 0.59 49.45 54.47
We are initiating coverage of ESTE with an OW rating. Our 12-month price target of $18/share is based on an equal weighting between
70% of our NAV target and our 2024E FCF/EV peer average.
The stock is valued at a significant discount to both our 70% NAV target and our 2024E FCF/EV peer average.
Stephens Inc. Note: Stephens estimates used for ESTE and TALO, Consensus estimates for all others Page55
55
April 24, 2023
Net Asset Value Estimate MMBoe Bcfe $MM $/Share $/Boe $/Mcfe
PV-10 of PDP 266 1,597 3,735 34.21 14.03 2.34
PV-10 of PUD 103 619 894 8.19 8.67 1.44
Midstream / Utility
Proved Assets 369 2,216 4,629 42.40 12.53 2.09
Working Capital (146) (1.34) (0.40) (0.07)

Net Debt (971) (8.90) (2.63) (0.44)
G&A (315) (2.89) (0.85) (0.14)
Hedge Value 13 0.12 0.03 0.01
ARO (31) (0.28) (0.08) (0.01)
Proved NAV 369 2,216 $3,170 $29.03 $8.58 $1.43
Delaware North Gas Bone Spring 51 308 300 2.75 5.84 0.97
Delaware North Gas Wolfcamp 26 157 0 - - -
Delaware North Oil Bone Spring 24 144 254 2.32 10.60 1.77
Delaware North Oil Wolfcamp 13 79 117 1.07 8.92 1.49
Midland Central Spraberry 16 93 38 0.35 2.48 0.41
Midland Central Wolfcamp 19 115 83 0.76 4.32 0.72
Midland South East Spraberry 172 1,033 86 0.79 0.50 0.08
Midland South East Wolfcamp 115 690 - - - -
Resource 436 2,618 878 8.04 2.01 0.34
Resource Less PUD 333 1,999 (16) (0.15) (0.05) (0.01)
Total NAV 703 4,215 $3,153 $28.88 $4.49 $0.75
PDP reserves > current EV
Stock valued at ~50% of proved reserve value

56
April 24, 2023
Capital Intensity (Capex/ Boe/d) Discretionary Cash Flow/ Boe

$40.00 $60.00
$35.00
$50.00
$30.00
$40.00
$25.00
$30.00
$20.00
$15.00 $20.00
$10.00 $10.00
$5.00
$0.00
CIVI
GRNT
MTDR
VTLE
NOG
CHRD
TALO
MGY
DEN
PDCE
PR
CPE
ESTE
CRC
SM
ROCC
SBOW
$0.00
MTDR
CHRD
CIVI
VTLE
GRNT
TALO
DEN
NOG
ESTE
MGY
PDCE
CRC
CPE
ROCC
PR
SM
SBOW
2022 2023 2024
2022 2023 2024
100% 18.00%
90% 16.00%
80%
14.00%
70%
12.00%
60%
10.00%
50%
8.00%
40%
30% 6.00%
20% 4.00%
10%
2.00%
0%
0.00%
MTDR
ROCC
CPE
PR
CRGY
DEN
SBOW
ESTE
CIVI
CRC
PDCE
MGY
SM
CHRD
NOG
VTLE
TALO
ROCC
CPE
PR
CRGY
MTDR
DEN
CIVI
CRC
PDCE
MGY
NOG
ESTE
CHRD
VTLE
SBOW
GRNT
SM
TALO
Fixed Dividend Variable/Special Dividend Share Repurchase
57
April 24, 2023
Catalysts Risks
• Shareholder return: With low leverage, no debt maturities until 2027, • Commodity price risk: A significant decline in oil and natural gas prices
and 2023E FCF>$350MM, the company could pay down its revolver by could cause us to lower our cash flow and NAV estimates.
$100MM and implement a repurchase program that reduces the share • Inflationary risk: A change in oilfield service costs could cause us to
count by >10% within one year. raise our capital expenditure or operating cost estimates and lower our
• Accretive M&A: ESTE has a strong track record of low-cost acquisitions. FCF and discretionary cash flow estimates.
Another accretive acquisition, especially one that adds high quality • Regulatory risk: Governmental or regulatory changes could negatively
inventory, will benefit equity holders. impact our outlook. Federal permit delays could slow drilling and
• Shareholder returns: ESTE does not currently pay a dividend or engage completion activity.
in share buybacks. We believe the initiation of such a program would be • Execution risk: A tight labor market and supply chain issues could delay
a positive for shares. development including third-party midstream projects. In addition,
• Cost reductions: We believe further reductions in operating and capital natural gas egress issues from the Permian is a risk for ESTE, in our
costs resulting from increased scale would be well-received by investors. view.
• Reserve risk: If new wells underperform expectations, concerns over
the quality and depth of the drilling inventory could negatively impact
the stock.

58
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Talos Energy Inc. (TALO)

Stephens Inc.
Page59
59
Introduction to Talos Industry Note
April 24, 2023
• Ticker TALO
• Share Price (as of 4/21/2023) $13.83
Houston, Texas based Talos Energy (TALO) is an • Enterprise Value $2.2 bil.
independent exploration and production company with • Debt $585 mil.
operations in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of • Cash $44 mil.
Mexico. Its focus in the Gulf of Mexico has been the • Leverage (20223) 0.5x
exploration, acquisition, exploitation and development • Short Interest (% of float) 6.2%
of shallow and deepwater assets near existing • Short Interest (days to cover) 3.0 days
infrastructure. The company has also established four
projects in an emerging carbon capture utilization and TALO LTM % Change vs. XOP
storage (CCUS) business with storage capacity of more 40%
30%
than 1.6 billion tons of CO2. 20%
10%
0%
Estimates (10%)
(20%)
TALO 2023E 2024E (30%)
Production (50%)
74 75 (1.6%) 87 83 5.9%
(Mboe/d)
Revenue $1,704 $1,691 0.8% $1,949 $1,917 1.7% TALO XOP
Adj. EBITDAX $1,106 $1,070 3.4% $1,279 $1,419 (9.8%) Ratings Distribution (incl. Stephens)
Adj. EPS $2.72 $2.33 17.0% $3.23 $3.26 (0.9%)
OW EW UW
FCF -$117 -$105 12% $250 $341 (26.6%)
7 1 0
60
April 24, 2023
TALO Properties
TALO Proved Reserve Breakdown
by Commodity by Category PV10 by Category
11%
17%
34%
64% 2%
83% 89%
Gas NGL Oil Developed Undeveloped Prod. Non Prod.
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Factset Research Systems, company documents/website, Stephens Inc.
Page61
61
April 24, 2023
1 Attractive Valuation
▪ The stock is the least expensive in our mid-cap peer group based on NAV with an EV less than our proved developed producing reserve
estimate.
▪ Our NAV estimate excludes value for Zama discovery (TALO-17%) and modest value for emerging CCUS business.
▪ Stock valued in line with peer group on 2024E FCF/EV.
2 Track Record of Successful M&A

▪ M&A focused on GOM assets with under-utilized infrastructure.
▪ Rejuvenated production at Phoenix Complex, GC-18, and Pampano facilities. Likely to do the same with Ram Powell over next two years.
▪ EnVen acquisition 2023 FCF accretive and improved debt metrics.
3 Early Mover in Emerging CCUS Business

▪ Well positioned to participate in significant market opportunity in early stages of multi-year growth cycle.
▪ Established 4 storage sites and numerous partnerships in region with highest stationary emissions and best storage capacity in U.S.
▪ Bayou Bend one of largest CCS projects in U.S. where (TALO-25%) partners are CVX and Carbonvert. CVX recently assumed operatorship.
4 Capital Efficiency Set to Improve

▪ Forecasting 8%-9% production CAGR through 2026 while 2024 and 2025 capex are less than 2023.
▪ Discoveries at Lobster A-4, A-26, Bulleit recompletion, Spruance, Mount Hunter, Gunflint, Lime Rock, and Venice prospects underpin highly visible
production growth.
5 Private Equity Overhang Declining

▪ Historically dominant ownership by private equity.
▪ Exit of private sponsor, Apollo, put pressure on stock in 2019-2021.
▪ Private ownership now 25%, down from 69% in 1Q20.
▪ We look for TALO to direct FCF to repurchase shares if future private equity sales pressure the stock.

62
April 24, 2023
TALO Valuation and Price Target
Stock Price FCF/EV NAV FCF-NAV Target

Company Ticker Rating 4/14/23 Target % Diff 2022 2023 2024 $/sh P/NAV FCF/EV 70% NAV
Mid Cap Oil
Civitas Resources, Inc. CIVI NA $74.07 23% 16% 16% 89.93 0.82 111.74 62.95
Callon Petroleum Co. CPE NA $38.06 14% 8% 9% 92.30 0.41 32.10 64.61
California Resources Corp. CRC NA $41.13 10% 13% 11% 67.22 0.61 41.73 47.05
Denbury Inc. DEN NA $95.00 3% 2% 0% 165.40 0.57 0.78 115.78
Earthstone Energy, Inc. ESTE OW $14.76 18 23% 17% 10% 12% 28.90 0.51 15.96 20.23
Vital Energy, Inc. VTLE NA $52.50 12% 6% 2% 125.74 0.42 10.71 88.02
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. MGY NA $23.29 16% 8% 9% 33.54 0.69 19.85 23.48
Matador Resources Co. MTDR NA $52.80 18% 6% 9% 84.06 0.63 44.13 58.84
Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. NOG NA $35.06 10% 12% 15% 52.35 0.67 49.41 36.64
Chord Energy Corp. CHRD NA $144.81 18% 17% 22% 193.98 0.75 288.55 135.79
PDC Energy, Inc. PDCE NA $69.56 20% 13% 13% 113.28 0.61 86.76 79.30
Permian Resources Corp. PR NA $11.23 7% 10% 11% 16.33 0.69 11.77 11.43
Ranger Oil Corp. ROCC NA $43.60 9% 8% 13% 65.76 0.66 52.25 46.03
SM Energy Co. SM NA $30.94 19% 11% 12% 67.17 0.46 33.71 47.02
Talos Energy, Inc. TALO OW $15.06 21 37% 8% 4% 10% 38.75 0.39 14.03 27.13
Average 13% 9% 11% 77.82 0.59 49.45 54.47
We are initiating coverage of TALO with an OW rating. Our 12-month price target of $21/share is based on an equal weighting between
70% of our NAV target and our 2024E FCF/EV peer average.
The stock is valued at a large discount to our 70% NAV target and a slight premium to our 2024E FCF/EV peer average.
Stephens Inc. Note: Stephens estimates used for ESTE and TALO, Consensus estimates for all others Page63
63
April 24, 2023
Net Asset Value Estimate

PV-10 of PDP 137 823 4,525 41.77 32.97 5.50
PV-10 of PUD 259 1,555 505 4.67 1.95 0.33
Midstream / Utility
Proved Assets 396 2,378 5,030 46.44 12.69 2.12
Working Capital (200) (1.85) (0.50) (0.08)

Net Debt (797) (7.35) (2.01) (0.33)
G&A (490) (4.53) (1.24) (0.21)
Hedge Value 2 0.02 0.00 0.00
ARO (542) (5.00) (1.37) (0.23)
Proved NAV 396 2,378 3,000 27.69 7.57 1.26
Mississippi Canyon Development 36 219 338 3.12 9.26 1.54

Mississippi Canyon Exploitation 49 296 263 2.43 5.34 0.89
Mississippi Canyon Exploration 38 226 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Green Canyon Development 14 86 166 1.54 11.65 1.94
Green Canyon Exploitation 19 114 258 2.38 13.61 2.27
Green Canyon Exploration 16 99 95 0.87 5.76 0.96
Puma West 21 123 177 1.64 8.62 1.44
Ewing Bank Development 12 73 240 2.22 19.65 3.28
Resource 206 1,236 1,538 14.20 73.90 12.32
Resource Less PUD (53) (319) 1,033 9.53 (19.42) (3.24)
CCS 165 1.53
Total NAV 343 2,059 4,197 38.75 12.23 2.04
Current EV < our proved NAV
Total NAV excludes Zama discovery
Total NAV includes only minor value for CCUS
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Company documents/website, Stephens Inc.

Page64
64
April 24, 2023
Capital Intensity (Capex/ Boe/d) Discretionary Cash Flow/ Boe

$40.00 $60.00
$35.00
$50.00
$30.00
$40.00
$25.00
$30.00
$20.00
$15.00 $20.00
$10.00 $10.00
$5.00
$0.00
CIVI
GRNT
MTDR
VTLE
NOG
CHRD
TALO
MGY
DEN
PDCE
PR
CPE
ESTE
CRC
SM
ROCC
SBOW
$0.00
MTDR
CHRD
CIVI
VTLE
GRNT
TALO
DEN
NOG
ESTE
MGY
PDCE
CRC
CPE
ROCC
PR
SM
SBOW
2022 2023 2024
2022 2023 2024
100% 18.00%
90% 16.00%
80%
14.00%
70%
12.00%
60%
10.00%
50%
8.00%
40%
30% 6.00%
20% 4.00%
10%
2.00%
0%
0.00%
MTDR
ROCC
CPE
PR
CRGY
DEN
SBOW
ESTE
CIVI
CRC
PDCE
MGY
SM
CHRD
NOG
VTLE
TALO
ROCC
CPE
PR
CRGY
MTDR
DEN
CIVI
CRC
PDCE
MGY
NOG
ESTE
CHRD
VTLE
SBOW
GRNT
SM
TALO
65
April 24, 2023
Catalysts Risks
• Exploratory discoveries: Successful exploration could positively impact • Commodity price risk: A significant decline in natural gas demand and
the shares. The OXY-operated Pancheron prospect (TALO-30%) is prices could cause us to lower our near-term cash flow and EBITDA
expected to spud in 1H23. estimates and/or our long-term price forecast and NAV estimate.
• Accretive M&A: TALO has a history of exploiting deepwater assets with • Inflationary risk: A change in oilfield service costs could cause us to
under-utilized infrastructure. Successful integration of EnVen and raise our capital expenditure or operating cost estimates and lower our
additional accretive acquisitions should be positive for the stock. FCF and discretionary cash flow estimates.
• Shareholder returns: TALO does not currently pay a dividend or engage • Regulatory risk: Governmental or regulatory changes could negatively
in share buybacks. We believe initiation of a payout program next year impact our outlook. Most of TALO's assets are located on Federal
would be a catalyst. offshore leases. A lease sale moratorium or increase in royalty rates
• Potential FID at Zama: After years of delay at Zama due to a dispute could negatively impact operations and/or cash flows.
with Pemex, investors have dismissed Zama discovery. An FID • Execution risk: Gulf of Mexico operations are vulnerable to hurricanes,
announcement would be a positive catalyst for the stock, in our view. loop currents, and other events that can negatively impact production
• Improving capital efficiency: TALO expects to grow production at an 8%- and offshore facilities.
9% CAGR over the next 3-4 years on 2024 and 2025 capex below the • Reserve risk: Dry holes or compartmentalized reservoirs could
2023 level. negatively impact our NAV and cash flow estimates.
• CCUS: With 4 carbon storage projects, progress toward obtaining a Class
VI drilling permit or agreements with emitters would be supportive for
the stock.

66
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Appendix
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Company documents/website

Page67
67
Stephens vs. Street Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Production (MBoe/d) Capex (MM) Free Cash Flow

2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024
Company Ticker Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff
Natural Gas
Antero Resources Corp. AR 547 556 1,044 1,044 390 390 0% 863 863 0%
Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK 631 613 3% 604 588 3% 2,098 1,971 6% 1,859 1,825 2% 687 689 0% 831 674 23%
CNX Resources Corp. CNX 260 259 1% 266 268 -1% 633 650 -3% 668 669 0% 248 263 -6% 257 347 -26%
Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK 245 259 1,197 1,218 -259 -259 0% 80 80 0%
Coterra Energy, Inc. CTRA 630 631 0% 666 657 1% 2,108 2,108 0% 2,413 2,143 13% 1,539 1,535 0% 1,612 1,826 -12%
EQT Corp. EQT 951 937 1% 1,062 1,013 5% 1,972 1,975 0% 2,230 2,040 9% 1,920 1,078 78% 3,000 2,247 34%
Gulfport Energy Corp. GPOR 171 176 456 523 199 199 0% 285 285 0%
Range Resources Corp. RRC 356 358 -1% 357 367 -3% 596 596 0% 625 618 1% 705 562 26% 890 785 13%
Southwestern Energy Co. SWN 768 780 2,314 2,415 45 45 0% 642 642 0%
Average 566 503 1% 591 518 1% 1,481 1,368 1% 1,559 1,388 5% 608 500 11% 940 861 4%
Mid Cap Oil

Civitas Resources, Inc. CIVI 164 165 871 902 863 863 0% 867 867 0%
Callon Petroleum Co. CPE 105 112 1,012 1,028 334 334 0% 396 396 0%
California Resources Corp. CRC 88 83 225 290 405 405 0% 346 346 0%
Denbury Inc. DEN 48 53 500 598 96 96 0% 4 4 0%
Earthstone Energy, Inc. ESTE 101 101 0% 106 105 1% 745 754 -1% 752 774 -3% 327 368 -11% 375 496 -24%
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. GRNT 22 24 268 258 33 33 0% 65 65 0%
Vital Energy, Inc. VTLE 80 76 653 667 117 117 0% 42 42 0%
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. MGY 83 89 499 540 381 381 0% 416 416 0%
Matador Resources Co. MTDR 127 148 1,407 1,410 389 389 0% 618 618 0%
Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. NOG 93 102 743 693 499 499 0% 661 661 0%
Chord Energy Corp. CHRD 169 172 848 885 971 971 0% 1,240 1,240 0%
PDC Energy, Inc. PDCE 259 271 1,457 1,449 927 927 0% 970 970 0%
Permian Resources Corp. PR 165 179 1,329 1,388 814 814 0% 893 893 0%
Ranger Oil Corp. ROCC 51 59 686 714 160 160 0% 253 253 0%
SilverBow Resources, Inc. SBOW 56 67 465 534 15 15 0% 113 113 0%
SM Energy Co. SM 148 153 1,095 1,147 493 493 0% 538 538 0%
Talos Energy, Inc. TALO 74 75 -2% 87 83 6% 831 787 6% 779 775 0% 96 -105 -191% 250 341 -27%
Average 87 108 -1% 97 114 4% 788 800 2% 765 827 -1% 407 398 -12% 473 486 -3%
Note: Stephens estimates used for RRC, CNX, EQT, CHK, CTRA, ESTE, and TALO Consensus estimates for all others
68
Stephens vs. Street Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Cash Flow Per Share EBITDA (MM)

2023 2024 2023 2024
Company Ticker Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff Stephens Street Diff
Natural Gas
Antero Resources Corp. AR $4.55 $6.45 1,545 2,093
Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK $19.19 $17.34 11% $18.85 $19.34 -3% 2,910 2,693 8% 3,040 2,895 5%
CNX Resources Corp. CNX $4.42 $4.71 -6% $4.98 $5.24 -5% 1,023 1,053 -3% 1,079 1,158 -7%
Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK $3.51 $4.57 1,121 1,484
Coterra Energy, Inc. CTRA $4.88 $4.78 2% $5.77 $5.35 8% 4,113 4,191 -2% 4,556 4,691 -3%
EQT Corp. EQT $9.31 $7.31 27% $12.28 $9.70 27% 3,767 3,437 10% 5,541 4,908 13%
Gulfport Energy Corp. GPOR $30.60 $38.97 718 871
Range Resources Corp. RRC $5.62 $4.63 21% $7.04 $5.75 22% 1,418 1,307 8% 1,634 1,584 3%
Southwestern Energy Co. SWN $2.00 $2.66 2,480 3,270
Average 11% 10% 2,061 4% 2,550 2%
Mid Cap Oil

Civitas Resources, Inc. CIVI $22.14 $22.92 1,872 1,896
Callon Petroleum Co. CPE $21.72 $23.12 1,509 1,614
California Resources Corp. CRC $9.03 $10.11 816 806
Denbury Inc. DEN $11.50 $12.07 622 658
Earthstone Energy, Inc. ESTE $9.82 $6.96 41% $10.32 $8.53 21% 1,121 1,216 -8% 1,174 1,395 -16%
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. GRNT $2.29 $2.40 305 329
Vital Energy, Inc. VTLE $44.31 $41.03 906 875
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. MGY $4.52 $4.86 1,009 1,091
Matador Resources Co. MTDR $14.41 $17.57 1,854 2,268
Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. NOG $14.77 $15.09 1,369 1,504
Chord Energy Corp. CHRD $40.25 $44.51 1,859 2,178
PDC Energy, Inc. PDCE $27.09 $29.27 2,450 2,699
Permian Resources Corp. PR $3.71 $3.95 2,303 2,565
Ranger Oil Corp. ROCC $20.60 $24.40 913 1,068
SilverBow Resources, Inc. SBOW $21.48 $29.30 532 701
SM Energy Co. SM $12.93 $14.06 1,681 1,855
Talos Energy, Inc. TALO $7.52 $7.53 0% $8.03 $9.23 -13% 1,106 1,162 -5% 1,279 1,326 -4%
Average $16.78 20% $18.38 4% 1,316 -6% 1,460 -10%
Note: Stephens estimates used for RRC, CNX, EQT, CHK, CTRA, ESTE, and TALO Consensus estimates for all others
69
CTRA Model Summary Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Coterra Energy Inc. Source: Company filings, Stephens estimates
Michael Scialla, Stephens Inc.

501-350-7626, [email protected]
$ millions, except $ per share 2020A 2021A 1Q22A 2Q22A 3Q22A 4Q22A 2022A 1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E 2023E 1Q24E 2Q24E 3Q24E 4Q24E 2024E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E 2025E
Production Activity
Oil (Mbbo/d ) - 3.7 83.3 87.9 88.0 90.2 87.4 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 94.5 97.5 100.0 100.8 98.2 103.1 103.3 104.1 104.8 103.8
NGLs (Mblbl/d) - 3.2 72.2 79.1 85.9 78.3 78.9 77.1 76.3 77.9 79.3 77.7 78.0 76.1 75.6 73.9 75.9 72.1 70.7 70.5 69.3 70.6
Natural Gas (Mmcf/d) 2,343.7 2,496.2 2,848.9 2,790.1 2,806.5 2,780.4 2,806.3 2,702.1 2,742.0 2,829.6 2,825.8 2,775.4 2,860.4 2,917.2 2,995.5 3,022.4 2,949.2 3,072.9 3,101.9 3,157.3 3,182.8 3,129.1
Total Daily Production (Mmcfe/d) 2,344 2,538 3,782 3,792 3,850 3,791 3,804 3,705 3,740 3,837 3,842 3,782 3,895 3,959 4,049 4,070 3,994 4,124 4,146 4,205 4,228 4,176
Commodity Price
WTI Cushing $ 39.23 $ 65.22 $ 82.49 $ 109.25 $ 101.05 $ 81.81 $ 93.67 $ 77.85 $ 74.66 $ 76.60 $ 74.91 $ 76.00 $ 73.44 $ 72.24 $ 71.14 $ 70.18 $ 71.74 $ 69.22 $ 68.31 $ 67.50 $ 66.74 $ 67.93
Henry Hub 2.15 3.85 4.95 7.17 8.20 6.20 6.64 3.42 2.22 2.67 3.21 2.88 3.71 3.21 3.46 3.94 3.58 4.49 3.81 4.05 4.45 4.20
Realized Pricing Before Hedges
Oil ($/bbl) $ - $ 75.61 $ 93.45 $ 109.23 $ 93.35 $ 82.26 $ 94.47 $ 78.46 $ 75.25 $ 77.20 $ 75.50 $ 76.60 $ 74.01 $ 72.81 $ 71.69 $ 70.73 $ 72.27 $ 69.76 $ 68.85 $ 68.03 $ 67.26 $ 68.46
NGLs ($/bbl) - 34.18 37.87 39.17 32.78 25.02 33.59 27.79 26.65 27.34 26.74 27.13 26.21 25.78 25.39 25.05 25.61 24.71 24.38 24.09 23.82 24.25
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 1.64 3.07 4.33 5.78 6.37 4.87 5.34 2.91 1.89 2.27 2.73 2.45 3.16 2.73 2.94 3.35 3.05 3.82 3.24 3.44 3.78 3.57
Realized Pricing After Hedges
Oil ($/bbl) na $ 60.35 $ 76.15 $ 92.78 $ 86.37 $ 81.57 $ 84.33 $ 78.46 $ 75.25 $ 77.20 $ 75.50 $ 76.60 $ 74.01 $ 72.81 $ 71.69 $ 70.73 $ 72.27 $ 69.76 $ 68.85 $ 68.03 $ 67.26 $ 68.46
NGLs ($/bbl) na 34.18 37.87 39.17 32.78 25.02 33.59 27.79 26.65 27.34 26.74 27.13 26.21 25.78 25.39 25.05 25.61 24.71 24.38 24.09 23.82 24.25
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 1.68 2.73 4.17 5.15 5.58 4.74 4.91 3.31 2.16 2.47 2.83 2.69 3.16 2.73 2.94 3.35 3.05 3.82 3.24 3.44 3.78 3.57
Income Statement
Total Revenue $ 1,405 $ 3,670 $ 2,070 $ 2,638 $ 2,676 $ 2,130 $ 9,514 $ 1,536 $ 1,273 $ 1,425 $ 1,530 $ 5,764 $ 1,644 $ 1,549 $ 1,646 $ 1,758 $ 6,596 $ 1,864 $ 1,717 $ 1,807 $ 1,908 $ 7,295
Lease Operating Expense (73) (156) (100) (116) (118) (126) (460) (105) (107) (111) (111) (434) (113) (116) (121) (123) (472) (123) (126) (131) (133) (512)
SG&A (106) (197) (100) (87) (94) (84) (365) (61) (61) (61) (61) (244) (64) (64) (64) (64) (255) (67) (67) (67) (67) (266)
DD&A (391) (693) (360) (414) (422) (439) (1,635) (416) (425) (441) (441) (1,723) (447) (459) (479) (486) (1,871) (487) (500) (518) (526) (2,030)
Other Expenses (600) (838) (320) (346) (380) (336) (1,382) (309) (300) (316) (322) (1,248) (332) (330) (347) (354) (1,363) (360) (355) (370) (376) (1,462)
Operating Income $ 235 $ 1,786 $ 1,190 $ 1,675 $ 1,662 $ 1,145 $ 5,672 $ 645 $ 381 $ 496 $ 594 $ 2,115 $ 689 $ 580 $ 636 $ 731 $ 2,636 $ 827 $ 670 $ 721 $ 807 $ 3,025
Interest Expense (54) (62) (21) (21) (17) (11) (70) (11) (11) (11) (11) (44) (11) (11) (11) (11) (44) (11) (11) (11) (11) (44)
Derivatives 61 (221) (391) (66) (156) 150 (463) 98 69 52 27 246 - - - - - - - - - -
Other (0) - - - 26 4 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Pretax Income $ 241 $ 1,503 $ 778 $ 1,588 $ 1,515 $ 1,288 $ 5,169 $ 732 $ 438 $ 537 $ 610 $ 2,317 $ 678 $ 569 $ 625 $ 720 $ 2,592 $ 816 $ 659 $ 710 $ 796 $ 2,981
Income Taxes (41) (344) (170) (359) (319) (256) (1,104) (154) (92) (113) (128) (487) (142) (120) (131) (151) (544) (171) (138) (149) (167) (626)
Net Income $ 200 $ 1,159 $ 608 $ 1,229 $ 1,196 $ 1,032 $ 4,065 $ 578 $ 346 $ 424 $ 482 $ 1,831 $ 536 $ 450 $ 493 $ 569 $ 2,048 $ 645 $ 521 $ 561 $ 629 $ 2,355
Adjustments (5) (26) 211 (146) (70) (127) (132) 9 9 9 9 35 9 9 9 9 36 16 16 17 17 66
Adj. Net Income $ 196 $ 1,133 $ 819 $ 1,083 $ 1,126 $ 905 $ 3,933 $ 587 $ 355 $ 433 $ 491 $ 1,865 $ 545 $ 459 $ 503 $ 578 $ 2,084 $ 661 $ 537 $ 578 $ 645 $ 2,421
Adj. EBITDAX $ 720 $ 2,197 $ 1,413 $ 1,841 $ 1,874 $ 1,578 $ 6,706 $ 1,166 $ 881 $ 996 $ 1,069 $ 4,113 $ 1,148 $ 1,051 $ 1,127 $ 1,230 $ 4,556 $ 1,327 $ 1,183 $ 1,252 $ 1,345 $ 5,107
GAAP/Diluted EPS $ 0.50 $ 2.30 $ 0.75 $ 1.52 $ 1.50 $ 1.33 $ 5.09 $ 0.74 $ 0.45 $ 0.55 $ 0.63 $ 2.45 $ 0.72 $ 0.61 $ 0.68 $ 0.79 $ 2.93 $ 0.94 $ 0.76 $ 0.83 $ 0.94 $ 3.70
Adj. Diluted EPS $ 0.49 $ 2.25 $ 1.01 $ 1.34 $ 1.41 $ 1.16 $ 4.92 $ 0.75 $ 0.46 $ 0.56 $ 0.64 $ 2.50 $ 0.74 $ 0.62 $ 0.69 $ 0.80 $ 2.99 $ 0.96 $ 0.79 $ 0.86 $ 0.97 $ 3.81
Balance Sheet
Current Assets 416 2,136 2,597 2,832 2,350 2,211 2,211 2,277 2,280 2,347 2,451 2,451 2,549 2,606 2,703 2,862 2,862 3,068 3,201 3,374 3,598 3,598
Total Assets $ 4,524 $ 19,900 $ 20,327 $ 20,647 $ 20,305 $ 20,154 $ 20,154 $ 20,309 $ 20,413 $ 20,562 $ 20,750 $ 20,750 $ 21,007 $ 21,199 $ 21,414 $ 21,674 $ 21,674 $ 21,995 $ 22,232 $ 22,490 $ 22,791 $ 22,791
Current Liabilities 390 1,220 1,659 1,570 1,415 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193 1,193
Total Liabilities $ 2,308 $ 8,162 $ 8,609 $ 8,456 $ 7,646 $ 7,495 $ 7,495 $ 7,522 $ 7,538 $ 7,558 $ 7,580 $ 7,580 $ 7,605 $ 7,626 $ 7,649 $ 7,675 $ 7,675 $ 7,705 $ 7,730 $ 7,756 $ 7,785 $ 7,785
Total Shareholders' Equity $ 2,216 $ 11,738 $ 11,718 $ 12,191 $ 12,659 $ 12,659 $ 12,659 $ 12,787 $ 12,875 $ 13,005 $ 13,170 $ 13,170 $ 13,401 $ 13,573 $ 13,765 $ 13,998 $ 13,998 $ 14,290 $ 14,502 $ 14,734 $ 15,006 $ 15,006
Cash Flow Statement
Cash from Operations $ 778 $ 1,667 $ 1,322 $ 879 $ 1,771 $ 1,484 $ 5,456 $ 1,023 $ 789 $ 887 $ 948 $ 3,647 $ 1,010 $ 932 $ 999 $ 1,085 $ 4,026 $ 1,166 $ 1,048 $ 1,109 $ 1,188 $ 4,511
Cash from Investing Activities (584) 313 (269) (472) (442) (491) (1,674) (512) (533) (531) (532) (2,108) (613) (601) (605) (594) (2,413) (611) (611) (611) (611) (2,444)
Cash from Financing Activities (256) (1,086) (642) (795) (1,610) (1,098) (4,145) (445) (253) (290) (311) (1,299) (300) (274) (296) (332) (1,201) (349) (304) (325) (353) (1,331)
Ending Cash $ 152 $ 1,046 $ 1,457 $ 1,069 $ 788 $ 683 $ 683 $ 749 $ 752 $ 819 $ 923 $ 923 $ 1,021 $ 1,078 $ 1,175 $ 1,334 $ 1,334 $ 1,540 $ 1,673 $ 1,846 $ 2,070 $ 2,070
Net Debt to LTM EBITDAX 1.4x 0.9x 0.5x 0.4x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.0x 0.0x
Cash Flow Per Share (Pre-WC) $ 1.71 $ 3.61 $ 1.51 $ 1.85 $ 1.91 $ 1.80 $ 7.07 $ 1.32 $ 1.02 $ 1.15 $ 1.24 $ 4.88 $ 1.36 $ 1.27 $ 1.37 $ 1.50 $ 5.77 $ 1.69 $ 1.53 $ 1.64 $ 1.78 $ 7.09
Capital Expenditures (Oil & Gas) 576 728 271 474 460 495 1,700 512 533 531 532 2,108 613 601 605 594 2,413 611 611 611 611 2,444
As a % of Revenue 41% 20% 13% 18% 17% 23% 18% 33% 42% 37% 35% 37% 37% 39% 37% 34% 37% 33% 36% 34% 32% 33%
Free Cash Flow $ 101 $ 2,132 $ 963 $ 1,021 $ 1,082 $ 910 $ 3,976 $ 511 $ 256 $ 356 $ 416 $ 1,539 $ 397 $ 331 $ 393 $ 490 $ 1,612 $ 555 $ 437 $ 498 $ 577 $ 2,067

70
RRC Model Summary Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Range Resources Corporation Source: Company filings, Stephens estimates

Production Activity
Oil (Mboe/d ) 7.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.7 7.4 7.7 7.3 7.3 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.8 7.6 8.1 7.7 7.5 7.9 7.8
NGLs (Mbl/d) 102.4 99.7 93.9 96.5 100.4 107.8 99.7 102.3 99.1 98.2 97.9 99.4 97.9 96.2 96.2 96.6 96.7 97.0 98.3 98.1 98.8 98.0
Total Period Production (Mmboe) 136.1 129.6 31.1 31.5 32.7 33.8 129.0 31.6 32.3 32.8 33.1 129.8 32.6 32.3 32.8 33.1 130.7 33.0 32.8 33.2 33.7 132.7
Commodity Price
WTI Cushing $ 39.23 $ 68.12 $ 84.76 $ 83.60 $ 80.70 $ 81.81 $ 82.70 $ 77.85 $ 74.66 $ 76.60 $ 74.91 $ 76.00 $ 73.44 $ 72.24 $ 71.14 $ 70.18 $ 71.74 $ 69.22 $ 68.31 $ 67.50 $ 66.74 $ 67.94
Henry Hub 2.15 3.96 4.31 4.19 4.30 6.20 4.75 3.42 2.22 2.67 3.21 2.88 3.71 3.21 3.46 3.94 3.58 4.49 3.81 4.05 4.45 4.20
Oil ($/bbl) $ 30.22 $ 60.11 $ 87.70 $ 101.15 $ 84.69 $ 75.66 $ 87.79 $ 69.29 $ 66.45 $ 68.18 $ 66.67 $ 67.65 $ 65.36 $ 64.29 $ 63.31 $ 62.46 $ 63.84 $ 61.61 $ 60.80 $ 60.08 $ 59.40 $ 60.47
NGLs ($/bbl) 15.43 31.23 40.03 42.65 35.30 27.17 35.96 29.58 28.37 29.11 28.47 28.89 27.91 27.45 27.03 26.67 27.26 26.30 25.96 25.65 25.36 25.81
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 1.66 3.53 4.92 6.90 7.81 5.71 6.34 3.05 1.98 2.37 2.86 2.56 3.34 2.97 3.16 3.59 3.27 4.12 3.56 3.75 4.10 3.88
Oil ($/bbl) $ 48.80 $ 46.19 $ 58.46 $ 59.46 $ 55.41 $ 55.83 $ 57.39 $ 64.92 $ 64.11 $ 64.53 $ 64.34 $ 64.48 $ 66.65 $ 64.81 $ 63.91 $ 62.46 $ 64.44 $ 61.61 $ 60.80 $ 60.08 $ 59.40 $ 60.47
NGLs ($/bbl) 15.73 28.70 38.57 41.46 35.74 27.83 35.62 29.58 28.37 29.11 28.47 28.89 27.91 27.45 27.03 26.67 27.26 26.30 25.96 25.65 25.36 25.81
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 2.10 2.74 4.04 4.12 4.42 4.06 4.16 3.33 2.64 2.82 3.17 2.99 3.42 3.23 3.33 3.65 3.41 4.12 3.56 3.75 4.10 3.88
Income Statement
Total Revenue $ 1,781 $ 3,580 $ 1,120 $ 1,465 $ 1,568 $ 1,182 $ 5,335 $ 807 $ 658 $ 727 $ 794 $ 2,987 $ 844 $ 780 $ 813 $ 878 $ 3,315 $ 947 $ 859 $ 892 $ 950 $ 3,649
SG&A (176) (243) (118) (26) (48) (45) (237) (56) (56) (56) (56) (225) (56) (56) (56) (56) (225) (56) (56) (56) (56) (225)
DD&A (394) (365) (86) (86) (90) (91) (353) (88) (92) (95) (98) (374) (98) (98) (100) (102) (397) (103) (103) (106) (108) (420)
Other Expenses (1,861) (1,629) (485) (498) (481) (438) (1,903) (407) (403) (401) (397) (1,608) (389) (396) (387) (402) (1,574) (399) (392) (397) (398) (1,586)
Operating Income $ (741) $ 1,270 $ 411 $ 835 $ 928 $ 585 $ 2,759 $ 236 $ 86 $ 153 $ 220 $ 695 $ 279 $ 208 $ 247 $ 295 $ 1,029 $ 366 $ 285 $ 309 $ 363 $ 1,323
Derivatives 188 (650) (939) (240) (458) 448 (1,189) 34 88 60 42 224 13 37 24 9 83 - - - - -
Other - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Pretax Income $ (737) $ 402 $ (573) $ 556 $ 433 $ 998 $ 1,414 $ 241 $ 144 $ 184 $ 233 $ 803 $ 263 $ 216 $ 242 $ 275 $ 996 $ 338 $ 258 $ 282 $ 336 $ 1,215
Income Taxes 94 10 116 (103) (60) (184) (230) (51) (30) (39) (49) (169) (55) (45) (51) (58) (209) (71) (54) (59) (71) (255)
Net Income $ (643) $ 412 $ (457) $ 453 $ 373 $ 814 $ 1,183 $ 190 $ 114 $ 145 $ 184 $ 634 $ 208 $ 171 $ 191 $ 217 $ 787 $ 267 $ 204 $ 223 $ 266 $ 960
Adjustments 621 92 753 (138) (37) (502) 76 20 20 20 20 81 20 20 20 20 81 20 20 20 20 81
Adj. Net Income $ (22) $ 504 $ 297 $ 315 $ 336 $ 312 $ 1,259 $ 211 $ 134 $ 166 $ 205 $ 715 $ 228 $ 191 $ 211 $ 237 $ 868 $ 288 $ 224 $ 243 $ 286 $ 1,041
Adj. EBITDAX $ 588 $ 1,296 $ 539 $ 567 $ 594 $ 541 $ 2,241 $ 390 $ 297 $ 339 $ 392 $ 1,418 $ 421 $ 374 $ 402 $ 437 $ 1,634 $ 500 $ 419 $ 446 $ 503 $ 1,868
GAAP/Diluted EPS $ (2.64) $ 1.67 $ (1.82) $ 1.82 $ 1.52 $ 3.39 $ 4.81 $ 0.81 $ 0.49 $ 0.63 $ 0.81 $ 2.74 $ 0.94 $ 0.78 $ 0.90 $ 1.04 $ 3.66 $ 1.32 $ 1.03 $ 1.15 $ 1.42 $ 4.91
Adj. Diluted EPS $ (0.09) $ 2.05 $ 1.18 $ 1.27 $ 1.37 $ 1.30 $ 5.11 $ 0.89 $ 0.57 $ 0.72 $ 0.90 $ 3.09 $ 1.03 $ 0.88 $ 0.99 $ 1.14 $ 4.03 $ 1.42 $ 1.13 $ 1.26 $ 1.52 $ 5.32
Balance Sheet
Current Assets 353 777 612 700 959 624 624 699 746 810 896 896 990 1,065 1,151 1,252 1,252 1,359 1,437 1,529 1,641 1,641
Total Assets $ 6,137 $ 6,661 $ 6,560 $ 6,615 $ 6,920 $ 6,626 $ 6,626 $ 6,755 $ 6,854 $ 6,966 $ 7,097 $ 7,097 $ 7,243 $ 7,372 $ 7,509 $ 7,658 $ 7,658 $ 7,828 $ 7,969 $ 8,111 $ 8,271 $ 8,271
Current Liabilities 707 1,152 2,337 2,028 2,090 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021 1,021
Cash Flow Statement
Cash from Operations $ 269 $ 820 $ 412 $ 340 $ 529 $ 621 $ 1,901 $ 360 $ 268 $ 311 $ 362 $ 1,301 $ 391 $ 344 $ 373 $ 407 $ 1,516 $ 439 $ 367 $ 392 $ 442 $ 1,640
Cash from Investing Activities (184) (418) (105) (123) (146) (115) (490) (149) (149) (149) (149) (596) (155) (156) (157) (157) (625) (171) (172) (161) (162) (666)
Cash from Financing Activities (85) (161) (403) (314) (218) (654) (1,589) (136) (72) (97) (128) (433) (141) (113) (130) (150) (534) (161) (117) (138) (168) (584)
Ending Cash $ 0 $ 214 $ 113 $ 0 $ 157 $ 0 $ 0 $ 75 $ 123 $ 187 $ 272 $ 272 $ 366 $ 442 $ 528 $ 628 $ 628 $ 735 $ 813 $ 905 $ 1,018 $ 1,018
Capital Expenditures (Oil & Gas) 411 418 90 121 141 105 457 149 149 149 149 596 155 156 157 157 625 171 172 161 162 666
As a % of Revenue 23% 12% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 18% 23% 20% 19% 20% 18% 20% 19% 18% 19% 18% 20% 18% 17% 18%
Free Cash Flow $ 138 $ 652 $ 384 $ 396 $ 403 $ 397 $ 1,581 $ 211 $ 119 $ 162 $ 213 $ 705 $ 236 $ 188 $ 216 $ 250 $ 890 $ 268 $ 195 $ 230 $ 280 $ 974

71
CNX Model Summary Industry Note
April 24, 2023
CNX Resources Corporation Source: Com pany filings, Stephens estim ates

$ m illions, except $ per share 2020A 2021A 1Q22A 2Q22A 3Q22A 4Q22A 2022A 1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E 2023E 1Q24E 2Q24E 3Q24E 4Q24E 2024E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E 2025E
Production Activity
Oil (Mboe/d ) 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4
NGLs (Mbl/d) 12.8 16.4 15.8 16.2 18.4 19.0 17.4 19.2 18.9 18.5 18.0 18.7 18.0 17.9 17.6 17.3 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.2 16.8 17.2
Total Daily Production (Mmcfe/d) 1,396.3 1,617 1,676 1,564 1,591 1,528 1,590 1,516 1,535 1,602 1,592 1,562 1,611 1,609 1,598 1,576 1,599 1,601 1,592 1,586 1,558 1,584
Commodity Price
W TI Cushing $ 39.23 $ 65.22 $ 82.49 $ 109.25 $ 101.05 $ 81.81 $ 93.67 $ 77.85 $ 74.66 $ 76.60 $ 74.91 $ 76.00 $ 73.44 $ 72.24 $ 71.14 $ 70.18 $ 71.74 $ 69.22 $ 68.31 $ 67.50 $ 66.74 $ 67.93
Henry Hub 2.15 3.85 4.95 7.17 8.20 6.20 6.64 3.42 2.22 2.67 3.21 2.88 3.71 3.21 3.46 3.94 3.58 4.49 3.81 4.05 4.45 4.20
Oil ($/bbl) $ 38.35 $ 56.33 $ 77.04 $ 96.24 $ 88.44 $ 74.06 $ 81.90 $ 70.07 $ 67.20 $ 68.95 $ 67.43 $ 68.47 $ 66.10 $ 65.02 $ 64.03 $ 63.17 $ 64.64 $ 62.30 $ 61.49 $ 60.76 $ 60.07 $ 61.19
NGLs ($/bbl) 13.73 32.91 45.72 43.26 36.30 29.54 38.16 23.36 22.40 22.98 22.47 22.81 22.03 21.67 21.34 21.05 21.53 20.77 20.49 20.25 20.02 20.38
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 1.71 3.55 4.76 7.02 7.82 5.53 6.27 3.05 1.98 2.38 2.86 2.56 3.31 2.86 3.08 3.51 3.19 4.00 3.39 3.60 3.96 3.74
Oil ($/bbl) $ 38.35 $ 56.33 $ 77.04 $ 96.24 $ 88.44 $ 74.06 $ 81.90 $ 70.07 $ 67.20 $ 68.95 $ 67.43 $ 68.47 $ 66.10 $ 65.02 $ 64.03 $ 63.17 $ 64.64 $ 62.30 $ 61.49 $ 60.76 $ 60.07 $ 61.19
NGLs ($/bbl) 13.73 32.91 45.72 43.26 36.30 29.54 38.16 23.36 22.40 22.98 22.47 22.81 22.03 21.67 21.34 21.05 21.53 20.77 20.49 20.25 20.02 20.38
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 2.44 2.57 2.85 3.04 3.03 2.76 2.92 2.96 2.66 2.67 2.74 2.75 2.88 2.75 2.82 2.93 2.84 3.16 2.97 3.04 3.15 3.08
Income Statement
Total Revenue $ 1,085 $ 2,390 $ 813 $ 1,073 $ 1,179 $ 859 $ 3,925 $ 469 $ 339 $ 409 $ 471 $ 1,689 $ 532 $ 469 $ 501 $ 552 $ 2,055 $ 615 $ 535 $ 567 $ 605 $ 2,321
SG&A (109) (113) (32) (30) (28) (32) (122) (37) (37) (37) (37) (146) (38) (38) (38) (38) (152) (39) (39) (39) (39) (158)
DD&A (502) (515) (119) (116) (114) (112) (461) (110) (114) (121) (122) (467) (123) (124) (126) (125) (498) (126) (128) (130) (129) (512)
Other Expenses (1,025) (519) (143) (163) (176) (180) (663) (144) (142) (143) (144) (574) (146) (146) (148) (150) (590) (152) (151) (153) (155) (611)
Operating Income $ (592) $ 1,197 $ 504 $ 749 $ 842 $ 517 $ 2,612 $ 161 $ 29 $ 89 $ 150 $ 430 $ 206 $ 143 $ 170 $ 221 $ 741 $ 280 $ 198 $ 226 $ 264 $ 967
Deriv ativ es 173 (1,633) (1,726) (653) (1,062) 778 (2,664) (12) 87 41 (17) 99 (59) (14) (36) (79) (188) (113) (57) (76) (109) (356)
Other (13) (49) 1 (18) (12) (4) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Pretax Income $ (603) $ (637) $ (1,249) $ 47 $ (267) $ 1,256 $ (212) $ 116 $ 83 $ 96 $ 100 $ 395 $ 114 $ 95 $ 101 $ 109 $ 421 $ 133 $ 107 $ 116 $ 121 $ 477
Income Taxes 174 138 326 (14) (160) (82) 70 (24) (17) (20) (21) (83) (24) (20) (21) (23) (88) (28) (23) (24) (25) (100)
Net Income $ (429) $ (499) $ (923) $ 33 $ (427) $ 1,175 $ (142) $ 92 $ 65 $ 76 $ 79 $ 312 $ 90 $ 75 $ 80 $ 86 $ 332 $ 105 $ 85 $ 92 $ 96 $ 377
Adjustments 621 847 1,081 103 327 (836) 675 4 4 4 4 17 4 4 4 4 18 5 5 5 5 18
Adj. Net Income $ 192 $ 348 $ 158 $ 136 $ (100) $ 339 $ 533 $ 96 $ 70 $ 80 $ 83 $ 329 $ 95 $ 80 $ 85 $ 91 $ 350 $ 109 $ 89 $ 96 $ 100 $ 395
Adj. EBITDAX $ 923 $ 1,195 $ 362 $ 338 $ 326 $ 274 $ 1,300 $ 266 $ 237 $ 258 $ 262 $ 1,023 $ 278 $ 259 $ 267 $ 275 $ 1,079 $ 300 $ 276 $ 287 $ 291 $ 1,153
GAAP/Diluted EPS $ (2.42) $ (2.26) $ (4.62) $ 0.15 $ (2.28) $ 5.67 $ (0.69) $ 0.45 $ 0.32 $ 0.38 $ 0.41 $ 1.57 $ 0.48 $ 0.40 $ 0.43 $ 0.48 $ 1.79 $ 0.59 $ 0.49 $ 0.54 $ 0.57 $ 2.19
Adj. Diluted EPS $ 0.96 $ 1.58 $ 0.79 $ 0.61 $ (0.53) $ 1.64 $ 2.60 $ 0.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.41 $ 0.43 $ 1.65 $ 0.50 $ 0.42 $ 0.46 $ 0.50 $ 1.88 $ 0.62 $ 0.51 $ 0.57 $ 0.60 $ 2.30
Balance Sheet
Current Assets 273 460 417 618 724 574 574 574 574 574 574 574 574 574 574 574 574 574 574 574 578 578
Total Assets $ 8,042 $ 8,101 $ 8,224 $ 8,696 $ 8,633 $ 8,516 $ 8,516 $ 8,568 $ 8,613 $ 8,644 $ 8,677 $ 8,677 $ 8,710 $ 8,754 $ 8,797 $ 8,841 $ 8,841 $ 8,884 $ 8,925 $ 8,963 $ 9,008 $ 9,008
Current Liabilities 441 955 2,127 2,032 2,258 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313
Cash Flow Statement
Cash from Operations $ 795 $ 926 $ 336 $ 192 $ 264 $ 442 $ 1,235 $ 230 $ 202 $ 222 $ 227 $ 880 $ 238 $ 221 $ 229 $ 236 $ 925 $ 252 $ 231 $ 241 $ 245 $ 969
Cash from Inv esting Activ ities (439) (421) (103) (130) (130) (166) (528) (163) (160) (153) (156) (633) (157) (170) (170) (170) (668) (170) (170) (170) (170) (681)
Cash from Financing Activ ities (351) (524) (228) (71) (134) (256) (689) (67) (41) (69) (70) (248) (81) (51) (59) (66) (257) (82) (61) (71) (70) (283)
Ending Cash $ 16 $ 4 $ 9 $ 0 $ 2 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 21 $ 26 $ 26
Net Debt to LTM EBITDAX $ 3 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2 $ 2
As a % of Revenue 45% 19% 15% 13% 11% 20% 14% 35% 47% 37% 33% 37% 30% 36% 34% 31% 33% 28% 32% 30% 28% 29%
Free Cash Flow $ 357 $ 577 $ 207 $ 168 $ 156 $ 147 $ 677 $ 67 $ 41 $ 69 $ 70 $ 248 $ 81 $ 51 $ 59 $ 66 $ 257 $ 82 $ 61 $ 71 $ 74 $ 288

72
EQT Model Summary Industry Note
April 24, 2023
EQT Corporation Source: Company filings, Stephens estimates

Production Activity
Oil (Mboe/d ) 2.2 4.5 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.6 16.2 15.9 9.4 15.5 15.1 14.7 14.2 14.9 13.8 13.4 13.1 12.7 13.3
NGLs (Mbl/d) 33.8 46.5 45.3 42.7 40.4 39.3 41.9 41.4 40.8 49.6 49.1 45.2 48.4 47.9 47.7 47.0 47.7 46.4 45.7 45.4 44.9 45.6
Total Period Production (Mmboe) 1,431.9 1,857.8 492.3 501.5 487.7 458.6 1,940.0 449.1 480.4 573.6 579.0 2,082.1 576.5 577.7 588.8 588.7 2,331.7 582.3 585.8 605.5 614.1 2,387.6
Commodity Price
WTI Cushing $ 39.23 $ 65.22 $ 82.49 $ 109.25 $ 101.05 $ 81.81 $ 93.67 $ 77.85 $ 74.66 $ 76.60 $ 74.91 $ 76.00 $ 73.44 $ 72.24 $ 71.14 $ 70.18 $ 71.74 $ 69.22 $ 68.31 $ 67.50 $ 66.74 $ 67.94
Henry Hub 2.15 3.85 4.95 7.17 8.20 6.20 6.64 3.42 2.22 2.67 3.21 2.88 3.71 3.21 3.46 3.94 3.58 4.49 3.81 4.05 4.45 4.20

Oil ($/bbl) $ 153.47 $ 56.82 $ 85.55 $ 91.38 $ 63.20 $ 67.82 $ 77.06 $ 64.54 $ 61.89 $ 63.50 $ 62.10 $ 62.86 $ 60.88 $ 59.88 $ 58.97 $ 58.18 $ 59.50 $ 57.38 $ 56.63 $ 55.95 $ 55.32 $ 56.34
NGLs ($/bbl) 82.44 31.34 42.54 43.16 36.21 30.59 38.33 31.87 30.56 31.36 30.67 31.11 30.06 29.57 29.12 28.73 29.37 28.34 27.97 27.63 27.32 27.82
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 2.18 4.13 5.13 7.54 8.62 6.63 6.99 3.59 2.33 2.80 3.37 3.02 3.71 3.21 3.46 3.94 3.58 4.40 3.73 3.96 4.36 4.12

Oil ($/bbl) $ 153.47 $ 56.82 $ 85.55 $ 91.38 $ 63.20 $ 67.82 $ 77.06 $ 64.54 $ 61.89 $ 63.50 $ 62.10 $ 62.86 $ 60.88 $ 59.88 $ 58.97 $ 58.18 $ 59.50 $ 57.38 $ 56.63 $ 55.95 $ 55.32 $ 56.34
NGLs ($/bbl) 81.99 23.57 39.64 40.24 33.87 29.19 35.92 31.87 30.56 31.36 30.67 31.11 30.06 29.57 29.12 28.73 29.37 28.34 27.97 27.63 27.32 27.82
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 2.28 2.38 2.97 3.01 3.28 2.74 3.00 3.87 2.77 2.96 3.34 3.22 3.77 3.31 3.53 3.98 3.65 4.40 3.73 3.96 4.36 4.12
Income Statement
Total Revenue $ 2,659 $ 6,840 $ 2,499 $ 3,373 $ 3,697 $ 2,573 $ 12,141 $ 1,662 $ 1,194 $ 1,742 $ 2,060 $ 6,657 $ 2,229 $ 1,955 $ 2,123 $ 2,388 $ 8,695 $ 2,611 $ 2,250 $ 2,455 $ 2,716 $ 10,033
SG&A (175) (196) (69) (59) (67) (57) (253) (73) (73) (73) (73) (291) (76) (76) (76) (76) (304) (79) (79) (79) (79) (317)
DD&A (1,419) (1,677) (422) (429) (419) (396) (1,666) (386) (413) (493) (497) (1,788) (490) (486) (491) (486) (1,953) (480) (483) (499) (507) (1,969)
Other Expenses (2,577) (2,327) (747) (595) (577) (641) (2,560) (541) (594) (646) (595) (2,376) (601) (667) (617) (694) (2,579) (697) (655) (727) (700) (2,779)
Operating Income $ (1,669) $ 2,414 $ 1,189 $ 2,207 $ 2,552 $ 1,413 $ 7,361 $ 616 $ 64 $ 470 $ 834 $ 1,983 $ 999 $ 661 $ 871 $ 1,063 $ 3,594 $ 1,283 $ 959 $ 1,071 $ 1,349 $ 4,661
Derivatives 400 (3,775) (3,078) (845) (1,627) 907 (4,643) 118 199 89 (17) 390 31 54 44 20 150 - - - - -
Other 273 81 (24) (93) (25) 9 (134) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Pretax Income $ (1,266) $ (1,574) $ (1,980) $ 1,202 $ 840 $ 2,273 $ 2,335 $ 672 $ 201 $ 497 $ 755 $ 2,124 $ 969 $ 653 $ 853 $ 1,021 $ 3,496 $ 1,242 $ 918 $ 1,030 $ 1,308 $ 4,498
Income Taxes 299 430 466 (308) (152) (559) (554) (141) (42) (104) (158) (446) (213) (144) (188) (225) (769) (273) (202) (227) (288) (990)
Net Income $ (967) $ (1,145) $ (1,515) $ 894 $ 687 $ 1,714 $ 1,781 $ 531 $ 159 $ 393 $ 596 $ 1,678 $ 756 $ 509 $ 666 $ 797 $ 2,727 $ 969 $ 716 $ 804 $ 1,020 $ 3,508
Adjustments 914 1,446 1,849 (554) (266) (1,547) (519) (96) (160) (73) 11 (318) (27) (45) (37) (18) (127) (2) (2) (2) (2) (10)
Adj. Net Income $ (53) $ 301 $ 334 $ 340 $ 422 $ 167 $ 1,262 $ 435 $ (1) $ 320 $ 607 $ 1,361 $ 729 $ 464 $ 629 $ 778 $ 2,600 $ 967 $ 713 $ 801 $ 1,018 $ 3,498
Adj. EBITDAX $ 1,541 $ 2,307 $ 926 $ 941 $ 973 $ 678 $ 3,519 $ 1,000 $ 476 $ 961 $ 1,330 $ 3,767 $ 1,488 $ 1,145 $ 1,360 $ 1,547 $ 5,541 $ 1,762 $ 1,440 $ 1,569 $ 1,853 $ 6,624
GAAP/Diluted EPS $ (3.72) $ (3.53) $ (3.79) $ 2.19 $ 1.69 $ 4.28 $ 4.40 $ 1.33 $ 0.39 $ 0.88 $ 1.36 $ 3.99 $ 1.74 $ 1.18 $ 1.56 $ 1.90 $ 6.38 $ 2.34 $ 1.74 $ 1.98 $ 2.55 $ 8.60
Adj. Diluted EPS $ (0.20) $ 0.92 $ 0.83 $ 0.83 $ 1.04 $ 0.42 $ 3.13 $ 1.10 $ (0.00) $ 0.72 $ 1.39 $ 3.25 $ 1.69 $ 1.08 $ 1.48 $ 1.86 $ 6.10 $ 2.34 $ 1.74 $ 1.98 $ 2.55 $ 8.60
Balance Sheet
Current Assets 1,215 2,287 3,026 4,086 3,902 4,014 4,014 4,387 4,445 3,633 4,170 4,170 4,790 5,163 5,688 6,334 6,334 7,038 7,440 7,925 8,591 8,591
Total Assets $ 18,113 $ 21,607 $ 21,815 $ 22,622 $ 22,541 $ 22,670 $ 22,670 $ 23,170 $ 23,293 $ 24,639 $ 25,155 $ 25,155 $ 25,831 $ 26,277 $ 26,871 $ 27,591 $ 27,591 $ 28,325 $ 28,882 $ 29,506 $ 30,303 $ 30,303
Current Liabilities 1,762 5,186 7,605 7,190 6,638 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732
Cash Flow Statement

Cash from Operations $ 1,538 $ 1,663 $ 1,020 $ 230 $ 1,150 $ 1,064 $ 3,464 $ 1,048 $ 619 $ 985 $ 1,240 $ 3,892 $ 1,397 $ 1,101 $ 1,291 $ 1,441 $ 5,230 $ 1,463 $ 1,212 $ 1,316 $ 1,540 $ 5,531
Cash from Investing Activities (1,556) (2,073) (291) (217) (509) (405) (1,422) (514) (477) (2,652) (478) (4,122) (547) (561) (561) (561) (2,230) (512) (640) (640) (640) (2,430)
Cash from Financing Activities 32 506 (827) 13 (597) 712 (699) (161) (83) 855 (226) 386 (230) (167) (204) (234) (835) (247) (171) (191) (235) (844)
Ending Cash $ 18 $ 114 $ 17 $ 44 $ 88 $ 1,459 $ 1,459 $ 1,831 $ 1,889 $ 1,077 $ 1,614 $ 1,614 $ 2,234 $ 2,607 $ 3,132 $ 3,778 $ 3,778 $ 4,482 $ 4,884 $ 5,370 $ 6,035 $ 6,035
Capital Expenditures (Oil & Gas) $1,042 $1,055 $292 $393 $363 $353 $1,400 $514 $477 $502 $478 $1,972 $547 $561 $561 $561 $2,230 $512 $640 $640 $640 $2,430
As a % of Revenue 39% 15% 12% 12% 10% 14% 12% 31% 40% 29% 23% 30% 25% 29% 26% 23% 26% 20% 28% 26% 24% 24%
Free Cash Flow $ (157) $ (35) $ 596 $ 700 $ 430 $ 226 $ 1,951 $ 533 $ 141 $ (1,667) $ 762 $ (230) $ 850 $ 540 $ 730 $ 880 $ 3,000 $ 951 $ 573 $ 677 $ 901 $ 3,101

73
CHK Model Summary Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Chesapeake Energy Corporation Source: Company filings, Stephens estimates

Production Activity
Oil (Mboe/d ) 103.0 69.0 60.0 50.0 50.0 52.7 53.2 49.2 21.4 6.7 5.3 20.5 5.4 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.2
NGLs (Mbl/d) 31.0 22.0 19.0 16.0 16.0 14.8 16.4 18.6 12.1 10.1 9.2 12.5 8.9 8.4 7.9 7.4 8.1 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.9
Commodity Price
WTI Cushing $ 39.23 $ 65.22 $ 82.49 $ 109.25 $ 101.05 $ 81.81 $ 93.67 $ 77.85 $ 74.66 $ 76.60 $ 74.91 $ 76.00 $ 73.44 $ 72.24 $ 71.14 $ 70.18 $ 71.74 $ 69.22 $ 68.31 $ 67.50 $ 66.74 $ 67.94
Henry Hub 2.15 3.85 4.95 7.17 8.20 6.20 6.64 3.42 2.22 2.67 3.21 2.88 3.71 3.21 3.46 3.94 3.58 4.49 3.81 4.05 4.45 4.20
Oil ($/bbl) $ 38.16 $ 69.07 $ 95.02 $ 111.01 $ 94.62 $ 96.07 $ 98.94 $ 77.85 $ 74.66 $ 76.60 $ 74.91 $ 76.73 $ 73.44 $ 72.24 $ 71.14 $ 70.18 $ 71.86 $ 69.22 $ 68.31 $ 67.50 $ 66.74 $ 67.97
NGLs ($/bbl) 11.55 31.37 43.05 42.56 37.57 37.48 40.32 31.14 29.87 30.64 29.97 30.51 29.38 28.90 28.45 28.07 28.73 27.69 27.33 27.00 26.69 27.20
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 1.73 3.61 4.54 6.55 7.31 5.96 6.15 3.29 2.14 2.56 3.08 2.76 3.57 3.08 3.32 3.79 3.44 4.32 3.66 3.89 4.27 4.03
Oil ($/bbl) $ 56.57 $ 50.33 $ 65.58 $ 69.47 $ 65.92 $ 76.28 $ 69.25 $ 64.68 $ 74.66 $ 76.60 $ 74.91 $ 68.93 $ 77.18 $ 72.24 $ 71.14 $ 71.78 $ 73.25 $ 69.22 $ 68.31 $ 67.50 $ 66.74 $ 67.97
NGLs ($/bbl) 11.46 30.64 40.94 42.58 36.68 28.63 37.50 31.14 29.87 30.64 29.97 30.51 29.38 28.90 28.45 28.07 28.73 27.69 27.33 27.00 26.69 27.20
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 1.96 2.74 3.08 4.03 4.10 4.12 3.86 3.05 2.78 3.00 3.30 3.03 3.52 3.28 3.43 3.74 3.49 4.22 3.65 3.87 4.26 4.00
Income Statement
Total Revenue $ 5,266 $ 4,888 $ 2,781 $ 4,013 $ 4,193 $ 3,136 $ 14,123 $ 2,504 $ 1,940 $ 1,988 $ 2,132 $ 8,563 $ 2,283 $ 2,115 $ 2,183 $ 2,324 $ 8,905 $ 2,527 $ 2,319 $ 2,419 $ 2,565 $ 9,830
SG&A (267) (84) (26) (36) (40) (40) (142) (46) (46) (46) (46) (185) (48) (48) (48) (48) (193) (50) (50) (50) (50) (202)
DD&A (1,097) (701) (409) (451) (440) (453) (1,753) (446) (436) (430) (422) (1,734) (424) (425) (427) (429) (1,704) (442) (450) (463) (473) (1,828)
Other Expenses (12,232) (2,509) (905) (1,553) (1,558) (1,277) (5,293) (1,372) (1,342) (1,340) (1,342) (5,397) (1,350) (1,341) (1,345) (1,350) (5,387) (1,367) (1,358) (1,371) (1,380) (5,476)
Operating Income $ (8,703) $ 1,360 $ 1,331 $ 1,855 $ 2,034 $ 1,240 $ 6,460 $ 533 $ 11 $ 69 $ 221 $ 834 $ 360 $ 200 $ 260 $ 394 $ 1,214 $ 563 $ 353 $ 424 $ 550 $ 1,889
Derivatives - (1,558) (2,125) (514) (1,029) 988 (2,680) (134) 212 146 69 294 (13) 64 35 (14) 71 (30) (4) (5) (6) (45)
Other (735) 53 16 9 4 (65) (36) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Pretax Income $ (9,769) $ (204) $ (810) $ 1,314 $ 957 $ 2,123 $ 3,584 $ 368 $ 193 $ 184 $ 260 $ 1,005 $ 304 $ 220 $ 252 $ 337 $ 1,113 $ 490 $ 306 $ 376 $ 500 $ 1,672
Income Taxes 19 10 46 (77) (74) 1,390 1,285 (59) (31) (29) (42) (161) (64) (46) (53) (71) (234) (103) (64) (79) (105) (351)
Net Income $ (9,750) $ (194) $ (764) $ 1,237 $ 883 $ 3,513 $ 4,869 $ 309 $ 162 $ 155 $ 218 $ 845 $ 240 $ 174 $ 199 $ 266 $ 879 $ 387 $ 242 $ 297 $ 395 $ 1,321
Adjustments 9,939 1,111 1,200 (508) (153) (2,895) (2,356) 5 5 5 5 20 5 5 5 5 20 5 5 5 5 21
Adj. Net Income $ 189 $ 917 $ 436 $ 729 $ 730 $ 618 $ 2,513 $ 315 $ 167 $ 160 $ 223 $ 865 $ 245 $ 179 $ 204 $ 271 $ 899 $ 392 $ 247 $ 302 $ 400 $ 1,341
Adj. EBITDAX $ 2,014 $ 1,685 $ 913 $ 1,269 $ 1,268 $ 1,032 $ 4,482 $ 857 $ 672 $ 657 $ 724 $ 2,910 $ 784 $ 701 $ 734 $ 822 $ 3,040 $ 988 $ 813 $ 895 $ 1,030 $ 3,725
GAAP/Diluted EPS $ (998.26) $ (1.89) $ (6.32) $ 8.27 $ 6.12 $ 24.00 $ 34.69 $ 2.12 $ 1.11 $ 1.07 $ 1.51 $ 5.82 $ 1.67 $ 1.22 $ 1.39 $ 1.88 $ 6.16 $ 2.76 $ 1.73 $ 2.14 $ 2.88 $ 9.50
Adj. Diluted EPS $ 19.34 $ 8.94 $ 3.09 $ 4.88 $ 5.06 $ 4.22 $ 17.91 $ 2.16 $ 1.15 $ 1.10 $ 1.55 $ 5.96 $ 1.71 $ 1.25 $ 1.43 $ 1.92 $ 6.30 $ 2.79 $ 1.77 $ 2.18 $ 2.92 $ 9.65
Balance Sheet
Current Assets 1,108 2,103 1,487 2,010 2,059 2,698 2,698 2,698 4,036 4,042 4,052 4,052 4,178 4,184 4,192 4,205 4,205 4,336 4,344 4,355 4,373 4,373
Total Assets $ 6,584 $ 11,009 $ 13,293 $ 13,899 $ 14,089 $ 15,468 $ 15,468 $ 15,629 $ 14,680 $ 14,727 $ 14,786 $ 14,786 $ 14,838 $ 14,875 $ 14,912 $ 14,952 $ 14,952 $ 15,045 $ 15,123 $ 15,191 $ 15,255 $ 15,255
Current Liabilities 3,094 2,447 4,392 4,241 4,238 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704 2,704
Total Shareholders' Equity $ (5,341) $ 5,671 $ 5,383 $ 5,808 $ 6,347 $ 9,124 $ 9,124 $ 9,235 $ 9,296 $ 9,313 $ 9,331 $ 9,331 $ 9,367 $ 9,393 $ 9,417 $ 9,439 $ 9,439 $ 9,532 $ 9,609 $ 9,677 $ 9,742 $ 9,742
Cash Flow Statement
Cash from Operations $ 248 $ 1,808 $ 854 $ 911 $ 1,313 $ 1,057 $ 4,135 $ 826 $ 641 $ 626 $ 693 $ 2,785 $ 692 $ 622 $ 651 $ 725 $ 2,690 $ 841 $ 704 $ 772 $ 881 $ 3,199
Cash from Investing Activities (1,984) (850) (1,947) (415) (495) (544) (3,401) (613) 1,844 (477) (477) 277 (356) (462) (462) (462) (1,743) (410) (527) (527) (527) (1,990)
Cash from Financing Activities (238) (169) 207 (498) (714) (451) (1,456) (213) (1,147) (143) (206) (1,709) (210) (154) (181) (250) (794) (299) (171) (235) (337) (1,041)
Ending Cash $ 279 $ 914 $ 28 $ 26 $ 130 $ 192 $ 192 $ 192 $ 1,530 $ 1,536 $ 1,546 $ 1,546 $ 1,672 $ 1,678 $ 1,686 $ 1,699 $ 1,699 $ 1,830 $ 1,838 $ 1,849 $ 1,867 $ 1,867
Net Debt to LTM EBITDAX $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0
Capital Expenditures (Oil & Gas) 1,111 669 344 415 540 524 1,823 613 531 477 477 2,098 472 462 462 462 1,859 527 527 527 527 2,106
As a % of Revenue 21% 14% 12% 10% 13% 17% 13% 24% 27% 24% 22% 24% 21% 22% 21% 20% 21% 21% 23% 22% 21% 21%
Free Cash Flow $ (1,758) $ 995 $ (1,023) $ 750 $ 664 $ 466 $ 857 $ 213 $ 2,485 $ 148 $ 216 $ 3,062 $ 336 $ 160 $ 189 $ 263 $ 947 $ 431 $ 178 $ 246 $ 354 $ 1,209

74
ESTE Model Summary Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Earthstone Energy, Inc Source: Com pany filings, Stephens estim ates

$ m illions, except $ per share 2020A 2021A 1Q22A 2Q22A 3Q22A 4Q22A 2022A 1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E 2023E 1Q24E 2Q24E 3Q24E 4Q24E 2024E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E 2025E
Production Activity
Oil (Mboe/d ) 8.7 12.0 15.7 28.4 38.8 46.7 32.5 37.5 39.6 40.3 40.7 39.5 41.6 42.4 42.4 43.5 42.5 44.4 44.2 43.7 44.4 44.2
NGLs (Mbl/d) 3.3 6.2 9.3 22.3 25.7 25.8 20.8 25.8 27.6 28.5 28.3 27.5 27.8 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.6 29.9 29.6 29.5
Natural Gas (Mmcf/d) 19.9 39.7 62.7 158.4 179.5 193.8 149.0 194.3 199.1 206.5 205.7 201.5 203.1 212.4 213.3 211.4 210.1 211.4 218.2 221.1 219.0 217.4
Total Daily Production (Mmcfe/d) 91.6 149 213 463 566 629 469 574 602 619 620 604 620 641 642 645 637 650 661 663 663 659
Commodity Price
W TI Cushing $ 39.23 $ 65.22 $ 82.49 $ 109.25 $ 101.05 $ 81.81 $ 93.67 $ 77.85 $ 74.66 $ 76.60 $ 74.91 $ 76.00 $ 73.44 $ 72.24 $ 71.14 $ 70.18 $ 71.74 $ 69.22 $ 68.31 $ 67.50 $ 66.74 $ 67.93
Henry Hub 2.15 3.84 4.95 7.17 8.20 6.20 6.63 3.42 2.22 2.67 3.21 2.88 3.71 3.21 3.46 3.94 3.58 4.49 3.81 4.05 4.45 4.20
Oil ($/bbl) $ 37.85 $ 64.77 $ 97.24 $ 110.80 $ 93.12 $ 83.29 $ 93.91 $ 79.26 $ 76.01 $ 77.99 $ 76.27 $ 77.34 $ 74.77 $ 73.54 $ 72.42 $ 71.45 $ 73.02 $ 70.47 $ 69.55 $ 68.72 $ 67.94 $ 69.16
NGLs ($/bbl) 13.03 31.76 42.22 44.25 36.23 27.93 36.44 27.25 26.13 26.81 26.22 26.59 25.70 25.28 24.90 24.56 25.11 24.23 23.91 23.63 23.36 23.77
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 1.17 3.50 4.07 6.67 6.90 3.97 5.59 3.19 1.93 2.39 2.97 2.62 3.50 2.97 3.22 3.74 3.35 4.26 3.58 3.82 4.22 3.97
Oil ($/bbl) $ 54.95 $ 58.23 $ 75.61 $ 87.30 $ 83.75 $ 78.54 $ 81.67 $ 79.26 $ 76.01 $ 77.99 $ 76.27 $ 77.34 $ 74.77 $ 73.54 $ 72.42 $ 71.45 $ 73.02 $ 70.47 $ 69.55 $ 68.72 $ 67.94 $ 69.16
NGLs ($/bbl) 13.03 31.76 42.22 44.25 36.23 27.93 36.44 27.25 26.13 26.81 26.22 26.59 25.70 25.28 24.90 24.56 25.11 24.23 23.91 23.63 23.36 23.77
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 1.42 2.89 3.89 5.40 5.36 3.65 4.66 3.79 2.36 2.67 3.03 2.95 3.50 2.97 3.22 3.74 3.35 4.26 3.58 3.82 4.22 3.97
Income Statement
Total Revenue $ 145 $ 420 $ 196 $ 473 $ 531 $ 495 $ 1,695 $ 386 $ 374 $ 405 $ 410 $ 1,576 $ 413 $ 408 $ 412 $ 424 $ 1,657 $ 425 $ 415 $ 419 $ 426 $ 1,686
SG&A (28) (42) (12) (14) (14) (34) (74) (17) (17) (17) (17) (69) (18) (18) (18) (18) (72) (19) (19) (19) (19) (75)
DD&A (96) (106) (34) (66) (91) (110) (302) (110) (110) (110) (110) (441) (110) (110) (110) (110) (441) (110) (110) (110) (110) (441)
Other Expenses (75) (32) (25) (35) (30) (33) (123) (28) (27) (29) (29) (113) (30) (29) (30) (30) (119) (31) (30) (30) (31) (121)
Operating Income $ (85) $ 190 $ 103 $ 307 $ 320 $ 235 $ 966 $ 159 $ 145 $ 172 $ 178 $ 654 $ 182 $ 177 $ 181 $ 193 $ 733 $ 196 $ 186 $ 190 $ 198 $ 771
Deriv ativ es 60 (117) (151) (50) 60 16 (125) 10 9 5 2 26 - - - - - - - - - -
Other 0 1 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Pretax Income $ (30) $ 63 $ (53) $ 241 $ 360 $ 228 $ 775 $ 148 $ 133 $ 156 $ 159 $ 597 $ 161 $ 156 $ 160 $ 172 $ 650 $ 175 $ 165 $ 169 $ 178 $ 688
Income Taxes 0 (2) 2 (23) (61) (43) (124) (31) (28) (33) (33) (125) (34) (33) (34) (36) (136) (37) (35) (36) (37) (144)
Net Income $ (29) $ 62 $ (52) $ 218 $ 299 $ 185 $ 651 $ 117 $ 105 $ 123 $ 126 $ 471 $ 127 $ 123 $ 127 $ 136 $ 513 $ 139 $ 131 $ 134 $ 140 $ 543
Adjustments 60 44 128 (42) (112) (38) (65) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Adj. Net Income $ 31 $ 105 $ 76 $ 176 $ 187 $ 147 $ 586 $ 117 $ 105 $ 123 $ 126 $ 471 $ 127 $ 123 $ 127 $ 136 $ 513 $ 139 $ 131 $ 134 $ 140 $ 543
Adj. EBITDAX $ 144 $ 248 $ 123 $ 301 $ 346 $ 338 $ 1,108 $ 279 $ 264 $ 287 $ 291 $ 1,121 $ 292 $ 287 $ 291 $ 303 $ 1,174 $ 307 $ 297 $ 301 $ 309 $ 1,213
GAAP/Dilutedf EPS $ (0.45) $ 0.73 $ (0.53) $ 1.41 $ 1.94 $ 1.19 $ 4.70 $ 1.07 $ 0.96 $ 1.13 $ 1.15 $ 4.32 $ 1.17 $ 1.13 $ 1.16 $ 1.25 $ 4.70 $ 1.27 $ 1.20 $ 1.23 $ 1.29 $ 4.98
Adj. Diluted EPS $ 0.47 $ 1.27 $ 0.78 $ 1.29 $ 1.30 $ 1.04 $ 4.50 $ 0.82 $ 0.74 $ 0.87 $ 0.89 $ 3.32 $ 0.90 $ 0.87 $ 0.89 $ 0.96 $ 3.61 $ 0.97 $ 0.92 $ 0.94 $ 0.99 $ 3.82
Balance Sheet
Current Assets 35 61 117 269 251 246 246 329 396 486 573 573 668 758 851 949 949 1,056 1,160 1,260 1,360 1,360
Total Assets $ 1,005 $ 1,556 $ 2,321 $ 3,291 $ 3,892 $ 3,937 $ 3,937 $ 4,094 $ 4,236 $ 4,401 $ 4,569 $ 4,569 $ 4,739 $ 4,904 $ 5,073 $ 5,254 $ 5,254 $ 5,439 $ 5,614 $ 5,793 $ 5,980 $ 5,980
Current Liabilities 55 151 386 432 390 376 376 376 376 376 376 376 376 376 376 376 376 376 376 376 376 376
Total Liabilities $ 660 $ 998 $ 1,547 $ 2,013 $ 2,347 $ 2,298 $ 2,298 $ 2,329 $ 2,357 $ 2,390 $ 2,423 $ 2,423 $ 2,457 $ 2,490 $ 2,524 $ 2,560 $ 2,560 $ 2,597 $ 2,631 $ 2,667 $ 2,704 $ 2,704
Total Shareholders' Equity $ 345 $ 558 $ 774 $ 1,278 $ 1,545 $ 1,639 $ 1,639 $ 1,765 $ 1,879 $ 2,011 $ 2,145 $ 2,145 $ 2,282 $ 2,414 $ 2,549 $ 2,694 $ 2,694 $ 2,842 $ 2,982 $ 3,126 $ 3,275 $ 3,275
Cash Flow Statement
Cash from Operations $ 132 $ 231 $ 83 $ 255 $ 365 $ 316 $ 1,019 $ 267 $ 252 $ 275 $ 278 $ 1,072 $ 281 $ 275 $ 280 $ 292 $ 1,127 $ 295 $ 285 $ 289 $ 297 $ 1,167
Cash from Inv esting Activ ities (88) (426) (381) (836) (602) (149) (1,968) (185) (185) (185) (191) (745) (185) (186) (187) (194) (752) (188) (181) (190) (197) (755)
Cash from Financing Activ ities (56) 198 294 581 236 (166) 945 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ending Cash $ 1 $ 4 $ 0 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 82 $ 149 $ 240 $ 327 $ 327 $ 422 $ 511 $ 604 $ 702 $ 702 $ 809 $ 914 $ 1,013 $ 1,114 $ 1,114
Net Debt to LTM EBITDAX $ 1 $ 1 $ 2 $ 2 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ (0) $ (0)
As a % of Revenue 61% 27% 29% 26% 27% 34% 29% 48% 49% 46% 47% 47% 45% 46% 45% 46% 45% 44% 43% 45% 46% 45%
Free Cash Flow $ 49 $ (194) $ (277) $ (555) $ (276) $ 172 $ (936) $ 82 $ 67 $ 90 $ 87 $ 327 $ 95 $ 89 $ 93 $ 98 $ 375 $ 107 $ 105 $ 99 $ 100 $ 412

75
TALO Model Summary Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Talos Energy Inc. Source: Company filings, Stephens estimates

Production Activity
Oil (Mbo/d ) 37.3 44.3 42.1 43.7 35.4 38.5 39.9 42.7 59.5 55.7 57.9 54.0 60.1 63.0 65.9 66.4 63.9 68.4 68.2 68.8 69.5 68.7
NGLs (Mbl/d) 4.3 5.2 5.1 5.6 4.4 81.3 4.9 5.4 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.3 6.5 6.9 6.9 6.4 7.1 7.2 7.6 7.7 7.4
Natural Gas (Mmcf/d) 78.3 89.8 96.1 96.8 79.3 81.3 88.3 85.8 90.5 90.5 89.7 89.1 93.2 104.1 107.5 107.0 103.0 107.8 107.8 111.1 111.3 109.5
Total Daily Production (Mboe/d) 54.6 64.4 63.2 65.4 53.0 56.5 59.5 62.4 79.3 75.7 77.7 73.8 81.0 86.8 90.7 91.2 87.5 93.5 93.4 94.9 95.7 94.4
Commodity Price
WTI Cushing $ 39.23 $ 65.22 $ 82.49 $ 109.25 $ 101.05 $ 81.81 $ 93.67 $ 77.85 $ 74.66 $ 76.60 $ 74.91 $ 76.00 $ 73.44 $ 72.24 $ 71.14 $ 70.18 $ 71.74 $ 69.22 $ 68.31 $ 67.50 $ 66.74 $ 67.93
Henry Hub 2.15 3.85 4.95 7.17 8.20 6.20 6.64 3.42 2.22 2.67 3.21 2.88 3.71 3.21 3.46 3.94 3.58 4.49 3.81 4.05 4.45 4.20
Oil ($/bbl) $ 37.09 $ 65.59 $ 93.42 $ 108.03 $ 90.73 $ 93.75 $ 96.89 $ 80.43 $ 77.14 $ 79.14 $ 77.39 $ 78.37 $ 75.87 $ 74.63 $ 73.49 $ 72.50 $ 74.07 $ 71.51 $ 70.58 $ 69.74 $ 68.95 $ 70.18
NGLs ($/bbl) 9.90 26.23 36.54 37.79 32.71 33.20 35.25 34.48 25.83 24.80 30.40 29.03 32.53 24.99 23.03 28.48 26.96 30.66 23.63 21.85 27.08 25.74
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 1.87 3.96 4.97 8.00 9.37 7.06 7.28 3.90 2.53 3.03 3.65 3.27 4.23 3.65 3.93 4.49 4.07 5.11 4.33 4.60 5.06 4.78
Oil ($/bbl) $ 37.09 $ 53.42 $ 71.16 $ 72.45 $ 65.89 $ 80.31 $ 72.56 $ 75.41 $ 76.90 $ 78.42 $ 77.46 $ 77.16 $ 76.17 $ 75.01 $ 73.66 $ 72.64 $ 74.31 $ 71.51 $ 70.58 $ 69.74 $ 68.95 $ 70.18
NGLs ($/bbl) 9.90 26.23 36.54 37.79 32.71 33.20 35.25 34.48 25.83 24.80 30.40 29.03 32.53 24.99 23.03 28.48 26.96 30.66 23.63 21.85 27.08 25.74
Natural Gas ($/mcf) 1.87 3.45 3.74 5.67 7.27 6.06 5.61 4.39 3.38 3.50 4.14 3.85 4.25 3.75 3.99 4.50 4.12 5.11 4.33 4.60 5.06 4.78
Income Statement
Total Revenue $ 587 $ 1,246 $ 414 $ 519 $ 377 $ 342 $ 1,652 $ 356 $ 450 $ 442 $ 456 $ 1,704 $ 467 $ 477 $ 499 $ 506 $ 1,949 $ 509 $ 496 $ 504 $ 512 $ 2,021
SG&A (79) (79) (23) (23) (25) (29) (100) (23) (23) (23) (23) (94) (24) (24) (24) (24) (96) (24) (24) (24) (24) (98)
DD&A (364) (396) (98) (105) (92) (119) (415) (144) (144) (144) (144) (575) (150) (150) (150) (150) (600) (150) (150) (150) (150) (600)
Other Expenses (319) (113) (15) (28) (14) (36) (93) (23) (23) (23) (23) (94) (23) (24) (24) (24) (94) (24) (24) (24) (24) (94)
Operating Income $ (421) $ 375 $ 218 $ 276 $ 164 $ 79 $ 736 $ 73 $ 150 $ 141 $ 152 $ 517 $ 153 $ 155 $ 169 $ 175 $ 652 $ 178 $ 164 $ 168 $ 174 $ 684
Derivatives 88 (419) (281) (64) 114 (41) (272) (15) 6 0 4 (5) 2 3 2 1 8 - - - - -
Other 3 3 28 17 2 (1) 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3
Pretax Income $ (430) $ (185) $ (67) $ 198 $ 251 $ 3 $ 384 $ 19 $ 117 $ 102 $ 117 $ 355 $ 115 $ 119 $ 132 $ 137 $ 503 $ 139 $ 124 $ 128 $ 135 $ 527
Income Taxes (36) 2 0 (3) (0) (0) (3) (2) (12) (10) (12) (36) (24) (25) (28) (29) (106) (29) (26) (27) (28) (111)
Net Income $ (466) $ (183) $ (66) $ 195 $ 250 $ 3 $ 382 $ 17 $ 105 $ 92 $ 106 $ 320 $ 91 $ 94 $ 104 $ 108 $ 397 $ 110 $ 98 $ 101 $ 107 $ 416
Adjustments 383 189 130 (94) (188) 14 (138) 4 4 4 4 16 4 4 4 4 16 4 4 4 4 17
Adj. Net Income $ (82) $ 6 $ 64 $ 101 $ 63 $ 17 $ 244 $ 21 $ 109 $ 96 $ 110 $ 336 $ 95 $ 98 $ 108 $ 112 $ 414 $ 114 $ 102 $ 106 $ 111 $ 433
Adj. EBITDAX $ 430 $ 606 $ 208 $ 251 $ 198 $ 185 $ 842 $ 207 $ 305 $ 290 $ 305 $ 1,106 $ 309 $ 313 $ 326 $ 331 $ 1,279 $ 333 $ 319 $ 322 $ 329 $ 1,303
GAAP/Diluted EPS $ (6.87) $ (2.23) $ (0.81) $ 2.33 $ 2.99 $ 0.03 $ 4.57 $ 0.16 $ 0.82 $ 0.72 $ 0.82 $ 2.59 $ 0.71 $ 0.73 $ 0.81 $ 0.84 $ 3.10 $ 0.86 $ 0.77 $ 0.79 $ 0.83 $ 3.25
Adj. Diluted EPS $ (1.22) $ 0.07 $ 0.78 $ 1.20 $ 0.75 $ 0.20 $ 2.92 $ 0.19 $ 0.85 $ 0.75 $ 0.86 $ 2.72 $ 0.74 $ 0.76 $ 0.84 $ 0.88 $ 3.23 $ 0.89 $ 0.80 $ 0.82 $ 0.86 $ 3.38
Balance Sheet
Current Assets 247 340 402 475 372 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 371 468 551 551 643 667 777 802 802
Total Assets $ 2,835 $ 2,767 $ 2,810 $ 2,863 $ 2,813 $ 3,059 $ 3,059 $ 3,339 $ 3,380 $ 3,453 $ 3,527 $ 3,527 $ 3,589 $ 3,661 $ 3,774 $ 3,890 $ 3,890 $ 4,008 $ 4,115 $ 4,224 $ 4,339 $ 4,339
Current Liabilities 448 601 706 701 556 607 607 607 607 607 607 607 607 607 607 607 607 607 607 607 607 607
Total Shareholders' Equity $ 927 $ 761 $ 695 $ 898 $ 1,155 $ 1,166 $ 1,166 $ 1,186 $ 1,296 $ 1,392 $ 1,501 $ 1,501 $ 1,597 $ 1,694 $ 1,803 $ 1,915 $ 1,915 $ 2,029 $ 2,131 $ 2,237 $ 2,348 $ 2,348
Cash Flow Statement
Cash from Operations $ 302 $ 411 $ 114 $ 241 $ 185 $ 171 $ 710 $ 169 $ 257 $ 244 $ 257 $ 927 $ 249 $ 252 $ 262 $ 266 $ 1,030 $ 268 $ 257 $ 260 $ 265 $ 1,050
Cash from Investing Activities (679) (294) (59) (58) (81) (113) (312) (424) (185) (217) (218) (1,044) (211) (220) (166) (183) (779) (176) (233) (150) (240) (799)
Cash from Financing Activities 324 (82) (46) (153) (147) (78) (423) 255 (72) (27) (40) 117 (38) (29) - - (67) - - - - -
Ending Cash $ 34 $ 70 $ 78 $ 108 $ 64 $ 44 $ 44 $ 44 $ 44 $ 44 $ 44 $ 44 $ 44 $ 47 $ 144 $ 228 $ 228 $ 320 $ 344 $ 453 $ 478 $ 478
As a % of Revenue 69% 27% 20% 17% 34% 46% 28% 59% 41% 49% 48% 49% 45% 46% 33% 36% 40% 35% 47% 30% 47% 40%
Free Cash Flow $ (348) $ 99 $ 128 $ 135 $ 66 $ 7 $ 336 $ (255) $ 72 $ 27 $ 40 $ (117) $ 38 $ 32 $ 97 $ 84 $ 250 $ 92 $ 24 $ 109 $ 25 $ 250

76
Companies Mentioned Industry Note
April 24, 2023
Companies Mentioned
Public Private
Ticker Price Company Name Company Name
AR 22.73 Antero Resources Corporation Carbonvert
APO 64.29 Apollo Global Management Inc. INEOS Energy
CRC 39.40 California Resources Corporation Momentum Midstream
CPE 34.23 Callon Petroleum Company PEMEX
CHK 80.99 Chesapeake Energy Corporation Wildfire Energy
CVX 169.85 Chevron Corporation
CHRD 142.65 Chord Energy Corporation
CIVI 70.77 Civitas Resources, Inc.
CNX 15.50 CNX Resources Corporation
CRK 11.08 Comstock Resources, Inc.
COP 103.78 ConocoPhillips
CTRA 25.56 Coterra Energy Inc.
CRGY 11.37 Crescent Energy Company Class A
DEN 92.86 Denbury Inc.
DVN 54.02 Devon Energy Corporation
FANG 141.94 Diamondback Energy, Inc.
ESTE 13.85 Earthstone Energy, Inc. Class A
EOG 118.26 EOG Resources, Inc.
EQT 32.73 EQT Corporation
XOM 115.64 Exxon Mobil Corporation
GRNT 5.53 Granite Ridge Resources, Inc.
GPOR 81.54 Gulfport Energy Corp
MGY 21.67 Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. Class A
MRO 24.27 Marathon Oil Corporation
MTDR 50.07 Matador Resources Company
NOG 33.06 Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
OXY 62.03 Occidental Petroleum Corporation
PDCE 66.16 PDC Energy, Inc.
PR 10.46 Permian Resources Corporation
PXD 225.30 Pioneer Natural Resources Company
RRC 25.65 Range Resources Corporation
ROCC 41.30 Ranger Oil Corporation Class A
SBOW 23.13 SilverBow Resources Inc
SM 27.97 SM Energy Company
SWN 5.05 Southwestern Energy Company
TALO 13.98 Talos Energy, Inc.
Stephens Inc. Source(s): Factset Research Systems

Page77
77
Industry Note
April 24, 2023
APPENDIX A
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The analyst primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report
accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about the subject company and securities, and (ii) no part of the analyst's compensation
was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the analyst in this report.
REQUIRED DISCLOSURES
The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of this report has received compensation that is based on the firm's overall
revenue which includes investment banking revenue.
Ratings Definitions
OVERWEIGHT (O) - The stock's total return is expected to be greater than the total return of the company's industry sector, on a risk-
adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. EQUAL-WEIGHT (E) - The stock's total return is expected to be equivalent to the total return
of the company's industry sector, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT (U) - The stock's total return is
expected to be less than the total return of the company's industry sector, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. VOLATILE
(V) - The stock's price volatility is potentially higher than that of the company's industry sector. The company stock ratings may reflect
the analyst's subjective assessment of risk factors that could impact the company's business.
Distribution of Stephens Inc. Ratings

IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [OW] 222 56.92 41 18.47
HOLD [EW] 163 41.79 22 13.50
SELL [UW] 5 1.28 0 0.00
OTHER DISCLOSURES
Certain investment programs offered by Stephens to clients sometimes engage in purchases or sales of securities that are consistent or
inconsistent with Research Analyst recommendations. These programs are managed on a discretionary basis, or provide investment
recommendations, by program managers in the exercise of their independent judgment and analysis. Stephens’ directors, officers
and employees are allowed to participate in these programs subject to established account minimums and applicable compliance
restrictions.
This report has been prepared solely for informative purposes as of its stated date and is not a solicitation, or an offer, to buy or sell
any security. It does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the material.
Information included in the report was obtained from internal and external sources which we consider reliable, but we have not
independently verified such information and do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Such information is believed to be accurate
on the date of issuance of the report, and all expressions of opinion apply on the date of issuance of the report. No subsequent
publication or distribution of this report shall mean or imply that any such information or opinion remains current at any time after the
stated date of the report. We do not undertake to advise you of any changes in any such information or opinion. Additional risk factors as
identified by the Subject Company and filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission may be found on EDGAR at www.sec.gov.
Prices, yields, and availability are subject to change with the market. Nothing in this report is intended, or should be construed, as legal,
accounting, regulatory or tax advice. Any discussion of tax attributes is provided for informational purposes only, and each investor
should consult his/her/its own tax advisors regarding any and all tax implications or tax consequences of any investment in securities
discussed in this report. From time to time, our research reports may include discussions about potential short-term trading opportunities
or market movements that may or may not be consistent with Stephens’ long-term investment thesis, rating, or price target. Please note
that we provide supplemental news and analysis in Quick Take blogs available to clients on our website. If applicable, when reading
research on Business Development Companies, you should consider carefully the investment objectives, charges, risks,
fees and expenses of the investment company before investing. The prospectus, and, if available, the summary prospectus,
contain this and other information about the investment company. You can obtain a current prospectus, and, if available,
a summary prospectus, by calling your financial consultant. Please read the prospectus, and, if available, the summary
prospectus, carefully before investing as it contains information about the previous referenced factors and other important
information. Also, please note other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by the relevant investment
company at www.sec.gov. Please also note that the report may include one or more links to external or third-party websites. Stephens
Inc. has not independently verified the information contained on such websites and can provide no assurance as to the reliability of
such information, and there can be no assurance that any opinions expressed on such websites reflect the opinions of Stephens Inc.
or its management. Additional information available upon request.
Stephens Inc. Page 78

Industrials and Energy: Exploration & Production: Industry Note

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Industrials and Energy: Exploration & Production: Industry Note

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Industrials and Energy: Exploration & Production: Industry Note

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

I N D U S T R Y wN O T E

April 24, 2023

© 2023 Stephens Inc.

Upstream Oil and Gas Initiation

Michael Scialla, Analyst

Collin Nieman, Associate

Stephens Inc. Source(s): Company documents/website, Stephens Inc.

Michael Scialla, Analyst

Natural Gas Producers:

Mid Cap Oil Producers:

Stephens Inc. Source(s): Stephens Inc. Page44

Company Name Ticker Rating

Stephens 1056 1066 $9.31 $12.28

Chesapeake Energy Stephens 631 604 $19.19 $18.85

Company Name Ticker Rating

Stephens 101 106 $9.82 $10.32

Stephens 74 87 $7.52 $8.03

Natural Gas Macro Outlook

Oil Macro Outlook

More extensive information on each stock can be found within the

Total Supply ........................................... 100.54 98.67 102.40 106.56 108.52 109.25

Total Demand ......................................... 98.18 97.84 102.25 107.52 108.33 108.16

Linear (Winter 2021-2022) Linear (Winter 2022-2023)

150 y = 2.0374x - 271.85

Storage reversal was not due to weather.

-50 EIA estimates market oversupplied in 2023 and 2024.

Stephens Inc. Source(s): EIA, Stephens Estimates Page77

U.S. Rig Count vs. Dry Gas Production (Bcfpd)

400 U.S. dry gas production

Henry Hub Historical Spot and Futures Prices ($/MMBtu)

7.5 Bcf/d additional

Liquefaction Capacity Under Construction

Marcellus Production (Mcfe/d) Utica Production (Mcfe/d) Haynesville Production (Mcfe/d)

Stephens Inc. Page10

U.S. Crude Inventory EIA Global Oil Supply/Demand Forecast

550 Production (Mmbblpd)

450 Canada ............................................................ 5.48 5.24 5.54 5.68 5.91 6.16

350 OPEC ................................................................ 34.61 30.70 31.65 34.17 33.69 34.65

260 Canada ............................................................ 2.49 2.19 2.28 2.29 2.29 2.31

250 Europe .............................................................. 14.30 12.42 13.11 13.51 13.54 13.53

U.S. Production (Mmboe/d) Permian Production (Mboe/d)

Oil Play PVI10

Stephens Inc. Page12

2023E Dividend Yield and FCF/EV by Sector

2023E Div Yield 2023E FCF/EV

2023E EV/EBITDA by Sector

Stephens Inc. Page13

FCF Yield FCF/EV EV/EBITDA NAV

Net Debt (MM) Net Debt/EBITDA EBITDA/Interest Exp

Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA)

2023 Best Idea

Overview Stock Information

Revenue $5,764 $6,055 (4.8%) $6,596 $6,572 0.4% CTRA XOP

CTRA Acreage CTRA Proved Reserve Breakdown

Permain Marcellus Anadarko

Gas NGL Oil

1 Best-in-Class FCF per Unit

2 Best-in-Class Drilling Inventory

3 Fortress Balance Sheet