KPI Green Energy
KPI Green Energy
KPI Green Energy
IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
2. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
3. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.
Explanation: If the current market cap is within the above IV range, Ratios
specially closer to lower range, it is reasonably /attractively priced. 45%
If above, then it can be considered overpriced. 40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-2
Cash Flow
250
200
150
100
50
-
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-
-50
r! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for
sconfirming evidence. Calculate. Pray!
Annual Sales Sales Sales
700 180%
600
TRENDS OVER THE YEARS 500 125%
9 Yrs 7 Yrs 5 Yrs 3 Yrs Last Yr. 400
300 72% 73%
- - - 122% 180%
200
- - - 128% 139%
100
- - - 157% 154%
-
- - - 2.24 2.62 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
- - - 24% 43%
- - - 11.92 13.75
Profitability PBT NP
Linear (NP) Int
Linear (Int) OPM G%
160
uPont Analysis 140
29% 120
76% 24% 100
77% 23% 80
60
51% 40
5 20
43% -
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
180% 2.00
1.80
1.60
125% 1.40
1.20
1.00
72% 73% 0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
-
an-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
PBT NP
Linear (NP) Int
Linear (Int) OPM G%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
n-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
Conclusion
Never Forget
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.
Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.
Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.
Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.
Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.
Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.
Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.
Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.
That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.
Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.
3.0 2.6
4.4 2.3
23.2 13.8
59% 40%
47% 32%
26% 22%
19% 17%
58 83
2 4
0 1
0.3 0.5
2.9 2.6
0.6 0.5
3 4
28% 43%
14% 16%
647% 530%
112 200
-483% 56%
-555% 78%
49% 31%
13% 13%
23% 24%
3 4
-10.2 -3.9
What to look for?
Higheris better but also look for/on tenn stabili
Lower is better but compare with sales growth. Growth Higher than sales growths
Higher is better as it indicates the effectiveness and efficiency with which the company is managing its operations
Higher is better but also look for Ion term stability and consistency
Higher is better but also look for Ion term stability and consistency
Higher is better but also look for Ion term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better esp. when the company is generating high ROE which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better but also look for Ion term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industr
Higher is better but also look for Ion term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industr
Higher is better but also look for Ion term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industr
Higher is better but also look for Ion term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industr
Look for positjve and rising number. If the company consistent/ generates negative FCF over say 10 years. Avoid it.
Higher is better but also look for long term stability and consistency.
Higher is better but also look for long term stability and consistency.
The Higher the percentage the better as it shows how profitable the company is. Check for OCF growing in line with sales over
Higher \is better. Show how well the com an uses its assetsto enerateo eratjn cash flow
Higher and more than 100% is better. Shows the ability of the company to use its operating cash flows to pay off its debt
Indicates the company's ability to make interest payments on its entire debt. A high/ leveraged company will have a low multi
Measures the capital available for internal reinvestment and for payments on existing debt When this ratio exceeds 1.0 the co
over 10 years
Balance Sheet
KPI GREEN ENERGY LTD
Rs Cr Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
Equity Share Capital - - - - - 18 18 18 18 36
Reserves - - - - - 81 80 102 136 222
Borrowings - - - - - 40 139 240 446 676
Other Liabilities - - - - - 22 61 49 177 322
Total - - - - - 161 298 409 777 1,255
Check for wide fluctuations in key expense items. For manufacturing firms, check their material costs etc. For services firms, look at
employee costs.
Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 41% 60%
Change in Inventory #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 11% 2% 1% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 30% 26% 22% 0% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 18% 13% 10% 0% 0%
Employee Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3% 4% 3% 2% 1%
Selling and Admin Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15% 13% 9% 0% 0%
Other Expenses #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% -1% 10% 7%
Operating Profit #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 22% 42% 55% 47% 32%
Other Income #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 17% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Depreciation #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13% 13% 12% 6% 4%
Interest #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 11% 13% 16% 16% 7%
Profit Before Tax #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 37% 20% 29% 26% 22%
Tax #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 11% 9% 8% 7% 5%
Net Profit #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 26% 11% 21% 19% 17%
Dividend Amount #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 1% 2%
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use "Capital expenditure" number shown
under "Cash Flow from Investing Activities" segment of Consolidated Cash Flow Statement available in the Annual Reports
Earnings Power Value (Bruce Greenwald)
Read the book - Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond by Bruce Greenwald (EPV is explained
Explanation - Earnings power value (EPV) is a technique for valuing stocks by making an assumption about the sustainability
capital but assuming no further growth. EPV formula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital
er 5-7 years
P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as t
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history of th
while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of realit
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai
Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 38.0 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate #DIV/0! Long-Term Growth Rate
Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) #DIV/0! Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 3,030 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)
Value as % of Market Cap #DIV/0! Value as % of Market Cap
EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10
years
38.0
8.5
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
3,030
#DIV/0!
Final Calculations
Terminal Year 347
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 1,068
Terminal Value 1,118
Total PV of Cash Flows 2,186
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 3,030
Expected Returns Model
KPI GREEN ENERGY LTD
Particulars Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20
Net Profit (Rs Crore) - - - - - 9 6
Net Profit Margin - - - - - 26% 11%
Return on Equity 9% 7%
META
Number of shares 3.61
Face Value 10
Current Price 838.55
Market Capitalization 3030.02
Quarters
Report Date Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22
Sales 13.82 48.04 35.42 57.43 62.2 74.89
Expenses 3.18 17.75 14.99 33.65 33.22 39.23
Other Income 0.05 0.15 0.28 0.3 0.2 0.72
Depreciation 4.16 4.65 4.58 1.57 3.45 4.47
Interest 5.54 7.60 6.96 7.57 8.80 13.60
Profit before tax 0.99 18.19 9.17 14.94 16.93 18.31
Tax 3.82 0.95 1.19 2.69 3.79 8.44
Net profit -2.82 17.25 7.99 12.26 13.14 9.86
Operating Profit 10.64 30.29 20.43 23.78 28.98 35.66
BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Equity Share Capital 18.07
Reserves 80.97
Borrowings 39.95
Other Liabilities 22.24
Total 161.23
Net Block 84.12
Capital Work in Progress 18.44
Investments
Other Assets 58.67
Total 161.23
Receivables 13.48
Inventory 15.40
Cash & Bank 1.99
No. of Equity Shares 18067000
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10
CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Cash from Operating Activity -17.06
Cash from Investing Activity -15.14
Cash from Financing Activity 33.07
Net Cash Flow 0.87
PRICE: 35.23
DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 3.61
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET
10 10 10 10
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