28-Jul-23 Fryer's Oilseed Report

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Beans Close Jul 27 Premiums (¢/bu) Fob ($/mt)
Futures ¢/bu +/(-) US Brazil cargo Paranagua Argentine US Brazil Paranagua Argentine
Aug 1,532.00 -14.25 Aug 95 95 -38 - Aug 598 598 549 -
Sep 1,453.50 -15.00 Sep 125 95 35 - Sep 580 569 547 -
Nov 1,398.00 -22.00 Oct 105 - 98 - Oct 552 - 550 -
Jan 1,404.25 -20.75 Nov 95 - 110 - Nov 549 - 554 -
SoyMeal Premiums ($/st) Fob ($/mt)
Futures $/st +/(-) US 46.5 Brazil 48 Dutch hipro Argentine 46.5 US Brazil Dutch hipro Argentine
Aug 464.50 -0.20 Aug 29 -6 67 37 Aug 544 505 586 553
Sep 443.00 -1.60 Sep 29 17 70 36 Sep 520 507 565 528
Oct 420.90 -3.00 Oct 35 28 72 38 Oct 503 495 543 506
Dec 415.60 -3.00 Nov 35 33 72 - Nov 497 494 537 -
BeanOil Premiums (¢/lb) Fob ($/mt) UCO fob ARA (€) UCO cif ARA ($)
Futures ¢/lb +/(-) US Brazil Argentine US Brazil Argentine 910 915
Aug 68.61 -1.66 Aug 8 -19.5 -20 Aug 1689 1083 1072 6-ports sunoil ($) FDM RSO (€)
Sep 65.82 -1.15 Sep - -19.5 -20 Sep - 1021 1010 1100 955
Oct 63.36 -1.11 Oct - -16 - Oct - 1044 - Palmoil cif EU ($) fob Mal. RBD PO ($)
Dec 62.07 -1.12 Nov - -16 - Nov - 1016 - 965 908
CBOT crush Oil Share Dalian CNY/tonne EU biodiesel ($/tonne)
¢/bu 244.61 42.48% Beans (U) Meal (U) Beanoil (U) Rapeoil (U) Olein (U) Gasoil RME FAME 0 UCOME
+/(-) -1.66 -0.57% 4,982 4292 8188 9591 7610 Aug 846 1306 1241 1491
Spreads/ratios -13 -32 -54 -209 -166 Q3 833 1295 1185 1425
SX23/CZ23 2.51 -$1.8 -$4.5 -$7.5 -$29.2 -$23.2 Q4 792 1229 1075 1327
NC Rapeseed/Wheat 1.83 US RINS 155 USc/Gal
Rapeseed: EU-CAD -97 Rapeseed/ Canola Rapemeal DDG's Peso Peso blue Real MYR
Rapeseed: EU-OZ 15 Matif (X) W'peg (X) Australian Spot 292 355 273 548 4.74 4.54
Soymeal/rapemeal 55% 470.00 823.50 750.00 ARAG Hipro sunmeal Soy hulls CAD CNY EUR AUD/EUR
Rapeoil-sunoil -47 -5.50 -7.30 258 210 1.32 7.16 1.10 0.61

Crops/Weather: The US has scattered showers in the Central and N Plains, but the rest
of the country stays dry with above/much above normal temperatures everywhere. Canada
still has showers in the north, but the south remains dry and warm, with time now run-
ning out for any improvement in crops. Rain continues to cover the northern half of
Europe, E Ukraine is also wet, but S Russia remains mostly dry. Australia has added
some showers into the east, India's monsoon remains sub-par in the south and west
Trade: US soybean export sales were 200kt old crop, 545kt new crop, meal sales were
160kt old crop and 114kt new crop, beanoil was just 2kt. Iran passed on their soymeal
tender.
Markets: CBOT soybeans were down 14-22c/bu with old-new blowing out to fresh contract
highs (see page 2). Meal was steady to weaker whilst beanoil fell 1.66c/lb ($37/
tonne). New crop soybean sales are running behind last season by around 60% whilst the
old crop part of the curve is supported by very strong crush margins which helps ra-
tionalize the support in the old-new spreads. The Sep-Nov spread looks to have very
similar comparisons to the 2022 and 2014 experiences when they blew out $1/bu or more
inverses (see page 2). It seems to have the ingredients this season to achieve those
levels. EIA data showed biofuel use for beanoil in April reached fresh record levels
at 927mln lbs, up 10% YoY.
Argentine meal premiums were a little firmer, whilst beanoil premiums in Brazil and
Argentina were also firmer on the break in the board.
Dalian soymeal is a little weaker but still well up on the week, whilst vegoils are
struggling to define a trend and will end the week lower. After showing some good
strength in the early part of the week, Bursa palmoil has given back all of Monday’s
gains and looks set to close the week slightly lower.
Over the course of the past 2 weeks Nov rapeseed futures have traded in a €56/tonne
range with a €30/tonne range this week. Rapeseed never mustered the same positive mo-
mentum as other vegoils or oilseeds, and you have to admire its independent spirit.
The rapeseed market theme remains the same, crushers are covered and harvest pressure
is being exerted, oilseeds are the cash crop that farmers want to sell with buyers
disinterested. ICE canola meanwhile is almost a mirror image, crush expansions want to
swallow up more canola to serve the US biodiesel market, and the farmer has no inter-
est to sell given the increasingly challenging crop conditions there.
Outlook: Meal markets finally look to have found some selling pressure, and as crush
margins don’t stay strong indefinitely, some correction there may be due. The EIA data
keeps the supportive theme to beanoil intact with more capacity still to come on
stream. Overnight beans are down 3-14c/bu and meal is down $4-5, but oil is up 50
($11/tonne) in the nearby.

[email protected] +41 79 301 0088 [email protected] +353 86 150 3440

Information is from sources believed reliable but may be incomplete and can't be guaranteed. Opinions may change without notice. Reproduction/transmission prohibited.
 US new crop soybean sales
25
US soybean export sales are down
around 60% compared to last season
20 and charting a course most similarly to
2017/18
2022/23 2023/24 2017/18 Average
15
Sales (MMT)

10

0
52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
Weeks to new crop

CME soybean Sep-Nov calendar spread (USc/bu)

160

140
The strong old crop crush and weak
120 new crop sales are pushing the old-
100 new spread to contract has and looking
80 most similar to 2022 and 2014.
60

40

20

-20

-40

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Fund positions Fund positions Fund positions

CBOT Wheat CBOT Corn CBOT Soybeans CBOT Soymeal CBOT Soyoil
Date Daily change CFTC Date Daily change CFTC Date Daily change CFTC Daily change CFTC Daily change CFTC
29/06/2023 -1,500 29/06/2023 -9,500 29/06/2023 5,000 1,500 -1,000
30/06/2023 -6,000 30/06/2023 -26,000 30/06/2023 21,000 7,000 14,500
03/07/2023 -2,500 -56,399 03/07/2023 500 -18,209 03/07/2023 8,500 90,193 500 52,590 5,000 45,235
05/07/2023 15,000 05/07/2023 1,500 05/07/2023 2,000 -1,000 4,500
06/07/2023 -6,000 06/07/2023 8,000 06/07/2023 -6,500 -1,000 -8,000
07/07/2023 -3,000 07/07/2023 -7,000 07/07/2023 -7,000 -3,000 -2,500
10/07/2023 -1,000 10/07/2023 4,500 10/07/2023 10,000 2,000 8,000
11/07/2023 5,500 -54,409 11/07/2023 1,000 -63,052 11/07/2023 5,500 84,244 4,000 54,013 -2,000 51,338
12/07/2023 -9,000 12/07/2023 -10,500 12/07/2023 -10,000 -4,000 -1,000
13/07/2023 3,500 13/07/2023 10,000 13/07/2023 15,000 5,000 5,000
14/07/2023 7,500 14/07/2023 10,500 14/07/2023 500 500 -2,000
17/07/2023 -2,500 17/07/2023 -6,500 17/07/2023 4,500 3,500 -2,000
18/07/2023 5,500 -57,009 18/07/2023 20,000 -46,926 18/07/2023 9,500 94,970 4,000 57,801 -3,500 46,702
19/07/2023 15,500 19/07/2023 12,000 19/07/2023 3,000 -1,000 5,000
20/07/2023 -1,500 20/07/2023 -6,000 20/07/2023 -2,500 -3,000 4,500
21/07/2023 -11,000 21/07/2023 -7,500 21/07/2023 -1,000 2,000 2,000
24/07/2023 21,500 24/07/2023 24,000 24/07/2023 9,500 3,500 9,000
25/07/2023 2,500 25/07/2023 -3,000 25/07/2023 -2,500 4,000 -1,000
26/07/2023 -12,500 26/07/2023 -13,500 26/07/2023 4,000 4,500 -3,500
27/07/2023 -7,000 27/07/2023 -10,000 27/07/2023 -13,500 -2,500 -3,500
Current est. 7,500 -49,509 -4,000 -50,926 -3,000 91,970 7,500 65,301 12,500 59,202
Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time Last 20 days All time
Percentile 24% Percentile 24% Percentile 58% 81% 77%
1 yr ago -14,527 1 yr ago 120,788 1 yr ago 85,962 72,238 14,526
Max 21,500 73,662 Max 24,000 429,189 Max 21,000 240,937 7,000 155,797 14,500 125,722
Min -12,500 -171,269 Min -26,000 -322,215 Min -13,500 -171,141 -4,000 -75,873 -8,000 -110,846
Average 650 -17,764 Average -375 101,391 Average 2,750 69,178 1,325 33,018 1,375 22,842
Pattern Pattern Pattern