Measurement of Epidiology

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Measurement in Epidemiology

Epidemiological Tools

Background
information
• Epidemiology entails the
study diseases as well as
health outcome in
population
• Health outcome include issues related to
behaviours, illnesses, disorders, symptoms, risk
factors, injuries, death e.t.c

Describe frequency distribution of


diseases?
• Measure the
occurrence of one or
more diseases • Define
population at risk
• This is necessary to plan interventions or monitor
changes within the population

What are the tools used for


measurement ?
Estimation of burden in terms of
Time, Person and Place?
Measurement of disease frequency
1) Count: Number of cases/ people with diseases
• For example 50,000 people are infected with
HIV/AIDS infection in Africa every year
2) Rate: HIV infects 10% of Nigeria population in
January, 2009
Relate old and new cases to total
populationPrevalence rate
Relate new cases to population at risk at given
time period- Incidence rate
Measurement of morbidity
Prevalence and incidence rates
INCIDENCE
• The number of new cases occurring in a
defined population during a specified period
of time

• Incidence= (No. of new case of specified


disease during a given time period /
population at risk during that period) X 1000
INCIDENCE RATE
• Refers to:
a) Only to new cases
b) During a given period
c) In a specified population or population at risk
d) To new spells or episodes of disease arising in a
given period of time per 1000 population
Person time
• Time in which person is at risk of
developing the disease.

• It can be person days, person months or


person years
Calculate incidence rate
• EXAMPLE
• If there had been 500 new cases of an illness
in a population of 30,000 in a year the
incidence rate or absolute risk will be

• Calculate the answer:


Exercise
• 25 new cases of lung cancer were identified
among 10000 smokers in a follow up study of
20 years duration. What is the risk of lung
cancer among the smokers in percentage?
• 11,000 people in an area with large nuclear
power plant were followed up for 7 years
until development of cancer in the blood. 30
cases were identified over the 7 years period.
What is the risk of development of blood
cancer?

Prevalence
Exercise
• During flu season, there are 20 sick children
and 80 healthy children taking a course in
statistics. What is the prevalence of flu
among the children?
Relationship between incidence and
prevalence

Relation between incidence and


prevalence
Measurement of
mortalities
Deaths
Mortality- Death
Categories of mortality rate
• Crude Death Rate (CDR)

• -Specific Death Rates

• -Case Fatality Rates (CFR)

• -Proportional Mortality Rates


CRUDE DEATH RATE

(CDR) =

X 1000
CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR)

Affected by
-Health of the population,
-Composition of the population

CDR lacks comparability


To COMPARE the mortality of two different
populations- need to calculate the ‘Standard
Mortality Rate’ for both populations
Specific Death Rates

(a)Cause Specific Death Rates e.g. TB death rate,


death rate due to accidents etc.

(b)Group specific death rates e.g. Age specific


death rate, sex specific death rate, race
specific DR, rural-urban DR etc.
Cause Specific Death Rates

X 1000
Group Specific Death rates
• Age specific death rate:

Age Sp. DR =

X 1000

CASE FATALITY RATE


• Measures the ‘killing power’ of a disease

CFR =

X 100
• More relevant to acute diseases
PROPORTIONAL MORTALITY RATE
• “the ratio of deaths due to a specific cause, in
a specific age, sex, group or sub-area, to the
total deaths
• E.g. PMR due to a specific cause (or an age
group) will be:

X 100

Questions and answers
Exercise: Crude death rate
• Calculate the crude death rate- Total mid year
population is 10000, number of death in a
year is 20
Questions
• Efili is a community in Delta State having
100,000 people in 2001, 50 of which are
infected with malaria out of which 25 died of
the infection
• What is the mortality rate of malaria in 2001?

• What is the case fatality rate of malaria in

2001?
Exercises on measurement
• In New York City, 200 out of 14,000 people as
at December 1st had cold. What is the
prevalence of cold in the population?
• 11,000 people in an area with large nuclear
power plant were followed up for 7 years until
development of cancer in the blood. 30 cases
were identified over the 7 years period. What
is the absolute risk of development of blood
cancer?
Exercises on measurement
• A Researcher recruited 10,000 residents living
near a nuclear power plant and follow the
residents up for 5 years until development of
cancer of the blood. Over the 5 years study
period, 25 cases of cancer of the blood were
identified and 5 deaths recorded. What is the
absolute risk of developing cancer of the
blood:
• What is the case fatality rate?
ATTACK RATE
• ATTACK RATE- An attack rate is an incidence
rate (usually expressed as a per cent), used
only when the population is exposed to risk
for a limited period of time such as during an
epidemic
• It relates the number of cases in the
population at risk and reflects the extent of
the epidemic
ATTACK RATE
• (No. of new cases of a specified disease during
a specified time interval /Total population at
risk during the same interval) X100
• E.g. calculation of attack rate in case of acute
food poisoning
• A food borne attack rate tells us the
proportion of all people who ate a certain
food who became ill
Secondary attack rate
• It is defined as as "the number of exposed
persons developing the disease within the
range of the incubation period, following
exposure to the primary case"
• SAR= (No. of exposed persons developing the
disease within the range of incubation period/
total no. of exposed/ susceptible contacts)
X100

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