LAND USE PATTERNS AND CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS

ASSESSMENT IN ANGAT RIVER MUNICIPALITIES:

THE CASE OF PULILAN AND PLARIDEL

____________________

A Thesis Submitted to

The Graduate School of Bulacan State University

____________________

In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for

For the Degree of Masterin Public Administration

____________________

by

RELLIE I. LEGASPI
July2014
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ABSTRACT

This study examines the contributions of land use patterns to climate-related

disaster risks in riverfront settlements. It fills existing knowledge gaps in the

understanding of land use and climate risks linkages by providing site specific empirical

data and analysis. Using river fronting settlements in two municipalities along Angat

River located in Bulacan, Philippines as case studies, it analyses how the human

settlements, built environments and socio-economic development around the River create

complex contributions to flooding, soil erosion and other disaster-related hazards that are

exacerbated by the detrimental effects of the global climate change phenomenon as well

as current political and institutional arrangements at the municipal and village levels.

Using concurrent or parallel mixed methods research designed for triangulation

and analysis of combined quantitative and qualitative findings, particularly through

detailed use of GIS information, this study identifies how adequate land use planning and

related administrative functions can be potent tools in addressing climate-related risks in

riverfront areas. It uncovers the differential impacts of climate risks on current land use

patterns at the municipal and village scales. It also examines the current institutional

context and challenges, particularly the policies and performance of the local

governments, in reducing the risks of the Angat River-fronting settlements. These

institutional policies and performance include the formulation and implementation of

disaster preparedness plans, adaptation measures, resource mobilization, and response

strategies related to land use in river areas highly exposed to climate risks. This study

contributes to improved local governance by providing recommendations for developing

the capabilities of local administration for community-based risk reduction and

management through improved land use planning and implementation.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT............................................................................................................................. 2

I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 10
Background of the Study ............................................................................................... 10
Statement of the Research Problem and Research Objectives ..................................... 13
Significance of the Research......................................................................................... 15

II. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE ................................................................ 17

Tragedy of the Commons, IWRM and Collaborative Governance ............................... 17
Factors Affecting and Affected by Watershed Activities............................................... 19
Community Adaptation to Impacts of Land Use Change and Other Factors............... 20
Scalar Analysis of Land-Use Patterns and Climate Change ........................................ 21
Land-Use and Land Cover Changes Impacts on the Environment............................... 21
Research Gaps to be Filled by This Research .............................................................. 21

III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ............................................................................... 23

Conceptual-Analytical Framework............................................................................... 23
Methods and Techniques of the Study........................................................................... 25
Sources of Quantitative and Qualitative Data.............................................................. 25
Procedures in Data Gathering...................................................................................... 27
Research Instruments.................................................................................................... 28
Data Processing and Analysis ...................................................................................... 28
Hypothesis and Arguments of the Study........................................................................ 29
Definition of Terms ....................................................................................................... 30
Limitations of the Research .......................................................................................... 32

IV. PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION OF DATA ...................................... 33

A. Land Use Patterns and Policies in Plaridel and Pulilan, Bulacan ...................... 33
Research Sites ....................................................................................................... 33
General Land Use Patterns .................................................................................. 35
The Focus of the Study.......................................................................................... 37
Determining the extent of land use patterns within the subject area.................... 41
Records of Land Uses as of 1990/ 2000 and 2010 ............................................... 42
Comprehensive Land Use Plans ........................................................................... 46
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Land Use Patterns................................................................................................. 50

Existing Land Use Policies and Zoning Ordinances ............................................ 51
B. Climate Related Risks in Bulacan: Patterns in Plaridel and Pulilan.................. 58
Climate Profile of the Research Sites ................................................................... 58
Climate Change Projection................................................................................... 62
Climate-Change Related Hazards ........................................................................ 66
Disaster Risks Aalong the Angat River Sub-Basin of the Pampanga River Basin 68
Susceptibility to Climate-Change Related Hazards of the Study Area ................. 72
Records of Climate Related Disasters in the study area....................................... 80
C. How Land Use Patterns Exacerbate Climate Related Risks and Disasters in
Plaridel and Pulilan...................................................................................................... 83
Disaster Risks Assessment Procedures................................................................. 83
Flooding Hazard Characterization....................................................................... 84
Estimated Flood Return Period ............................................................................ 86
Risk Assessment on Population............................................................................. 88
Vulnerability of Exposed Population .................................................................... 97
Risk Assessment on Properties............................................................................ 102
Trends of the Assessment Results........................................................................ 108
D. Analysis Of Contributing Issues To Disaster Risks Concerning Land Use ........ 110
Informal Settlements ........................................................................................... 110
Waste Management and River Siltation.............................................................. 116
Riverbank Erosion .............................................................................................. 121
Institutional Capacity.......................................................................................... 124

V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................... 133

Revisiting the Research Questions.............................................................................. 133
Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 136
Areas of Future Research ........................................................................................... 139

REFERENCES.................................................................................................................... 142

ANNEXES ........................................................................................................................... 144

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1:Conceptual-Analytical Framework ................................................................... 24

Figure 2:Administrative Map – Province of Bulacan....................................................... 34
Figure 3: General Land Use Map 1997 – Plaridel and Pulilan....................................... 36
Figure 4: General Land Use Map 2007 – Plaridel and Pulilan....................................... 37
Figure 5:Barangays from Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan ................................... 38
Figure 6:Base Map – Riverfront Barangays of Plaridel and Pulilan .............................. 40
Figure 7:Base Map – Riverfront Barangays with Satellite Image ................................... 41
Figure 8:River Distance Zone Map .................................................................................. 42
Figure 9:General Land Use Map 1997 – Riverfront Barangays...................................... 43
Figure 10:General Land Use Map 2007 – Riverfront Barangays.................................... 44
Figure 11:General Land Use Map 2002 of Riverfront Barangays................................... 45
Figure 12:General Land Use Map 2011 of Riverfront Barangays................................... 46
Figure 13: Proposed General Land Use Map of Plaridel................................................ 47
Figure 14: Existing Land Use Map of Plaridel ................................................................ 48
Figure 15: Location of Plaridel By-pass Road................................................................. 49
Figure 16: Proposed Land Use Map of Pulilan ............................................................... 50
Figure 17: Researchers Conducting Interview................................................................. 51
Figure 18:Bulacan Heights – Catacte, Bustos ................................................................. 57
Figure 19:Bulacan Climate Map ...................................................................................... 59
Figure 20:Number of Extreme Typhoons in the Philippines 1971-2010.......................... 62
Figure 21:Pampanga River Basin Map........................................................................... 69
Figure 22:Bulacan River Network Map ........................................................................... 70
Figure 23:Bulacan Flooding Hazard Map ....................................................................... 74
Figure 24:Flooding Hazard Map - Riverfront Barangays ............................................... 76
Figure 25:Bulacan Rain-induced Landslide Hazard Map ............................................... 78
Figure 26:Bulacan Storm Surge Hazard Map.................................................................. 79
Figure 27:Population Density Exposure Map.................................................................. 91
Figure 28:The Risk Triangle............................................................................................. 97
Figure 29:Average Household Size from the Study Area ................................................. 99
Figure 30:Housing Structures from the Study Area ......................................................... 99
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Figure 31:Educational Attainment of Respondents from the Study Area....................... 100

Figure 32:Water Sources and Sanitation Survey Results ............................................... 101
Figure 33:Number of Flooding Experience per year of the Respondents ...................... 101
Figure 34:Land use and Property Inventory Map.......................................................... 103
Figure 35:Parcellary Map - Riverfront Barangays........................................................ 114
Figure 36:Built-up Areas without Parcel Records - Riverfront Barangays ................... 115
Figure 37:Sto. Cristo, Pulilan Informal Settlements ...................................................... 115
Figure 38:Banga II, Plaridel Informal Settlements........................................................ 116
Figure 39:Volume of Waste Generated Daily ................................................................ 117
Figure 40:An Elder Scavenger in Banga I, Plaridel ...................................................... 119
Figure 41:Water wastes in Banga I unrestrictedly flowing towards the river ............... 119
Figure 42:Mountain of garbage forming as illegal dump site in Banga II, Plaridel ..... 120
Figure 43:Identified Erosion Sites in Plaridel and Pulilan............................................ 121
Figure 44:Soil Erosion Case in Dampol, Plaridel ......................................................... 122
Figure 45:Soil Erosion Case in Sipat, Plaridel .............................................................. 123
Figure 46:Slope Protection Project in Plaridel.............................................................. 123
Figure 47:Slope Protection Project in Sto. Cristo, Pulilan............................................ 124
Figure 48:Hazards Information and Education Campaign in Bulacan Province.......... 126
Figure 49: The researcher at MPDO Plaridel with head Engineer Rey Alvaro ............ 128
Figure 50:Destroyed Houses Vacated by Informal Settlers in Sto. Cristo, Pulilan ....... 131

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Land Area Distribution and Number of Barangays per Municipality/City....... 34

Table 2: Demographic Characteristics of Research Site ................................................. 38
Table 3: Observed Baseline Historical Temperature for Central Luzon 1971-2000 ....... 60
Table 4: Observed Rainfall Record for Central Luzon 1971-2000 .................................. 61
Table 5: Number of Tropical Cyclones crossed Bulacan 1948-2009............................... 62
Table 6: Year 2020 Projected Seasonal Mean Temperature............................................ 63
Table 7: Year 2020 Projected Seasonal Rainfall Volume Change ................................... 64
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Table 8: Year 2050 Projected Seasonal Mean Temperature............................................ 64

Table 9: Comparative Projected Seasonal Mean Temperature 2020/2050 ..................... 64
Table 10: Year 2050 Projected Seasonal Rainfall Volume Change ................................. 65
Table 11: Comparative Projected Seasonal Rainfall Volume Change 2020/2050........... 65
Table 12: Climate Change Enhanced Threats.................................................................. 66
Table 13: River Systems in Bulacan ................................................................................. 70
Table 14: Flooding Susceptibility Levels per Municipality.............................................. 75
Table 15: Flooding Historical Occurrences..................................................................... 80
Table 16: Research Site Susceptibility to Flooding.......................................................... 84
Table 17: Land Area Exposure per River Buffer Distance............................................... 85
Table 18: Frequency Table for 1-day rainfall for 2020, bias-corrected (2006-2035) ..... 87
Table 19: Calculated Flood Return Period ...................................................................... 88
Table 20: 2010 Population Exposure to Flooding ........................................................... 92
Table 21: 2000 Population Exposure to Flooding ........................................................... 93
Table 22: 2010 Population Exposure to Flooding based on Built-up Area ..................... 95
Table 23: 2000 Population Exposure to Flooding based on Built-up Area ..................... 96
Table 24: 2011 Built-up Area Exposure to Flooding per River Buffer Distance ........... 104
Table 25: 2002 Built-up Area Exposure to Flooding per River Buffer Distance ........... 105
Table 26: Land Use Costing Estimates for Risk Assessment.......................................... 106
Table 27: 2002 Estimated Land Use Exposure Cost –Riverfront Barangays ................ 107
Table 28: 2011 Estimated Land Use Exposure Cost – Riverfront Barangays ............... 107
Table 29: Number of Informal Settlement Households per Barangay ........................... 110
Table 30: Garbage Disposal Practices at the Research Site.......................................... 118

LIST OF ACRONYMS

CCA Climate Change Adaptation

CCVA Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
CDP Comprehensive Development Plans
CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plans
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CP Contingency Plan
CPH Census of Population and Housing
DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources
DepEd Department of Education
DMIS Disaster Management Information System
DoH Department of Health
DOST Department of Science and Technology
DPWH Department of Public Works and Highways
DRA Disaster Risk Assessment
DRR Disaster Risk Reduction
DRRMP Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan
DSWD Department of Social Welfare and Development
EO Executive Order
GIS Geographic Information System
HLURB Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board
HSA Highly Susceptible Area
IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management
LBZAA Local Zoning Board Adjudication and Appeals
LGU Local Government Units
LMB Land Management Bureau
LMSA Low to Moderately Susceptible Area
MDRRMO Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office
MDRRMP Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan
MGB Mines and Geo-sciences Bureau
MPDO Municipal Planning and Development Office
MRF Materials Recovery Facilities
MSWDO Municipal Social Welfare and Development Office
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NAMRIA National Mapping and Resource Information Authority

NDRRMC National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council
NEDA National Economic and Development Authority
NGA National Government Agencies
NGO Non-Government Organizations
NSO National Statistics Office
OCD Office of the Civil Defense
PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
PAR Philippine Area of Responsibility
PD Presidential Decree
PDPFP Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan
PDRRMO Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office
PHIVOLCS Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology
PPDO Provincial Planning and Development Office
PPFP Provincial Physical Framework Plan
PRFFWC Pampanga River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center
RA Republic Act
SB Sangguniang Bayan (Municipal Council)
SP Sangguniang Panlalawigan (Provincial Council)
SSHRC Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
ZO Zoning Ordinance
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I. INTRODUCTION

Background of the Study

The Philippine archipelago is identified by the International Panel on Climate

Change as one among the countries most prone to various natural hazards, exacerbated by

climate change. It is a recurring target of several geological threats such as volcanic and

earthquake related hazards as it is situated in the Pacific Ring of Fire with several active

volcanoes and fault lines passing through the islands. It is also exposed to multiple

hydro-meteorological hazards such as flooding, landslides, and storm surges since the

country is located along the typhoon belt.

The country experiences annual torrential rains from July to October usually

referred to as the typhoon season by Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and

Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). During this season, around 19

typhoons enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and about 8 to 9 of them

bring severe heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds that typically cause hydro-

meteorological hazards. Most of these weather disturbances affect the Province of

Bulacan either by the direct passage of typhoons or by surrounding after storms. Aside

from typhoons, there are also around 20 to 30 thunderstorms during the south-west

monsoon season. The condition is becoming worse based on global warming and climate

change related projections made by PAGASA, thus, making the country including the

Bulacan even more susceptible to known potential risks, particularly flooding.

The Province of Bulacan is geographically located in Central Luzon bounded by

provinces of Nueva Ecija in the north, Pampanga in the west, Quezon and Aurora in the

east, Rizal in the south-east, Metro Manila in the south and the Manila Bay in the south-
 1111

west. With its total land area of 279,610 hectares, around one-third of which is forest

land from the Sierra Madre mountain ranges lying in the eastern portionofBulacan and

covering the municipalities of Doña Remedios Trinidad and Norzagaray, where large

portions are declared protected areas, including theAngat Watershed.

The Angat Watershed is a part of the whole Angat River Basin, which is a sub-

basin ofthe larger Pampanga River Basin located within the Central Luzon plains. It

remains to be the main source of drinking water for most of the Metro Manila and nearby

provinces’ 12 million residents and supplies 10 percent of electricity on this part of

Luzon’s grid, thus making it of national socio-economic importance to the country

(Briones and Castro 1986). This watershed is also the main water source that flows

throughout the Angat River.

Being the longest and major river system in the Province of Bulacan, the Angat

River has been supporting the livelihoods of many residents around its area. Starting

from the watershed in the eastern part of the province and traversing through 11 of 24 of

its municipalities down to its exit at Manila Bay, it has become the general source for

surface water needs and common grounds for quarrying, fishing, water plant production

and irrigation. Likewise, it also serves as the passageway for excess waters being

released from the three dams (i.e., Angat, Ipo and Bustos dams) located within Bulacan,

thus making it a majorflooding hazard agent.

Flooding is the most common hazard occurring intermittently in the province of

Bulacan, specifically in the low lying areas and coastal towns. It is usually caused by

overflowing of water systems, such as rivers and streams triggered by excessive water

run-off from heavy rains brought about by typhoons or monsoon rains.According to the
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Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office, flooding in the province

results in more serious losses of lives and damage to properties compared to other

historical disasters in this area.Historical data show that the Typhoon Ondoy in 2009 had

the greatest adverse impacts to Bulacan municipalities in terms of the number of deaths,

destroying houses and damaging infrastructures, agricultural and industrial assets of the

province (PDRRMO 2009). During typhoons, the province experiences an unusually high

rainfall amount which triggered flooding around the river areas.

Riverfront areas are therefore the most exposed to climate change related risks

such as flooding. Flooding poses the highest risks to communities as well as buildings,

agricultural lands and other infrastructures in the riverfront areas. Rigid flooding

disturbance to these elements at risks, such as the population and properties, may spell

another disaster to Bulacan.

Disasters happen but risks may be reduced. This has become the standing

foundation in the formation of Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Councils

(DRRMC) at all government levels starting from the national, regional, provincial,

municipal levels and all the way down to barangays. It is also observed by the National

Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), which spearheads the Disaster Risk and

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (DRA-CCVA) project for all Philippine

provinces in partnership with United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

Theproject targets the provincialgovernmentsnow tasked to develop a set of standard

guidelines on land use planning, policy making and strategic program formulation and

project implementation based on the assessed risks of natural hazards determined through

scientific procedures.
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The on-going socio-economic development around theAngatRiver, as well as the

increase in population and human settlements, present more complexity in the current

land use patterns in these areas. This study identifies how the analysis of land use

patterns, particularly in the municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan,canfacilitate

administrative planning that can address the challenges and detrimental effects of the

global climate change risks on flooding. This also examines the current institutional

context and challenges, particularly the policies and performance of the local

governments in reducing the risks of the Angat River-facing barangays. These

institutional policies and performanceinclude the formulation and implementation of

disaster preparedness plans, adaptation measures, resource mobilization, and response

strategies related to land use in river areas highly exposed to climate risks, particularly

the loss of lives and damage to properties due to flooding.

Since the Philippines in general and the province of Bulacan in particular are

facing very real impactsof climate change, which worsen the vulnerability of riverfront

communities, this study also seeks to determine alternative land use policies and climate

risk adaptation measures that can be developed in affected barangays and municipalities.

This will also provide potential recommendations for developing the local administration

capabilities for community based risk reduction and management.

Statement of the Research Problem and Research Objectives

Sustainability concerns and climate risk assessment and adaptation strategies need

to be considered in determining alternative land use policies, which are critical to the

health of the rivers and watersheds, as well as the health and safety of people living

around them. Thus, this proposed research addresseshow current land use patterns at the
 1414

municipal and barangay scales could potentially exacerbate disaster risks brought by

flooding in the low lying barangays along theAngat River in the towns of Pulilan and

Plaridel. The main objective of this research is to contribute to the on-going Disaster

Risk Assessment (DRA) project in the province, spearheaded by the Provincial Planning

and Development Office (PPDO), as well as the formationand programmingof the

Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Councils at the provincial, municipal and

barangay levels.

This studyaddresses the primary researchquestion: How have existing land use

patterns in the barangays fronting the Angat River been contributing toclimate change

and disaster related risks?Specifically, it will seek answers to the following subsidiary

questions:

1. Based on the available GIS and other land use data, what are the dominant

land use patterns in and around the Angat River Basin using the case of river-

front barangays in Pulilan and Plaridel municipalities?

2. How are these current land use patterns exacerbating and/or affecting known

climate related risk in the Angat River Basin in particular and the Bulacan

Province in general?

3. What are the climate risk adaptation measures and strategies, particularly

alternative land uses and policies that can be developed in these

municipalities, particularly in the most affected barangays fronting the Angat

River?

4. What knowledge capabilities in risk management and land use planning

capabilities need to be developed at the municipal and barangay level?

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Significance of the Research

This study is significant for three main reasons. One, it will contribute to the

knowledge and analysis of how current land use patterns at the municipal and barangay

scales could potentially exacerbate disaster risks, such as flooding in the low lying areas

and river front barangays in the Angat River towns of Pulilan and Plaridel. In other

words, it will also contribute to how alternative land uses can be promoted to help

reducethe existing climate and disaster risks. Two, it will contribute to the on-going

Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) project in the province, spearheaded by the Provincial

Planning and Development Office (PPDO). Three, it will contribute to the formation and

programming of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Councils at the provincial,

municipal and barangay levels.

The study is thus significant to a number of stakeholders, including public

officials and administrators who could use the results of this study in their decision-

making. The relevant stakeholders and end-users of this study include the following:

Provincial Government of Bulacan.There are a number of studies on how to

implement programs and projects for disaster risk reduction at the provincial level. The

Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan (PDPFP) of the Provincial

Government of Bulacan enhanced by the results from the Disaster Risk Assessment

report suggest guidelines in land use and policy formulation for risk reduction and

adaptation down to the municipal level. This study will seek to identify alternative land

use policies and risk management capabilities that may be developed at the barangay and

community level that will be analysed in parallel to other municipalities around the Angat

River.
 1616

Municipal and Barangay Government Units. This study will provide the

officials of Local Government Units (LGUs) from provincial, municipal to barangay

levelsa clearer picture and analysis of what changes in land use patterns, and related

factors thathave taken place in their territorial jurisdiction and their effects on on-going

climate related risks,especially in the human settlements within the riverbank itself. The

findings of this study may help improve their existing on land use that should consider

disaster risksreduction. It willalso provide insight on the local policies capability building

needs and requirements of joint alternative land use planning and risk reduction.

Affected Communities.This study will be of significance to local communities

most affected by climate and disaster related risk, particularly in Plaridel and Pulilan. It

will explore the hazards existing in the riverfront areas and assess the potential level of

risk to the population and their assetsand potential threats to their lives and properties,

which are often exacerbated by mismanaged land use practices.

Other Academic and Non-Academic Researchers. The findings of this study

will offercritical reviews of related studies that will be of use to other researchers who are

interested in conducting similar studies.In particular, this study aims to contribute to the

research program funded by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of

Canada (SSHRC) on Collaborative Governance of Urbanizing Watershed: Integrated

Research, Institution – andCapacity Building for Sustainability and Climate Risk

Adaptation in the Angat River Basin”, which will partly fund this research. This broader

research project intends to analyze the rescaling of water governance challenges as well

as the prospects and possibilities of introducing collaborative governance in the Angat

River Basin to address typical “tragedy of the commons” problem in watershed regions.
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II. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

This chapter presents review of literature relevant to this study’s focus,

highlighting relevant theories and guiding literature in the general sections of this

chapter. Related studies particularly the most recent will be reviewed in relation to the

analysis of land use, river management and climate related disaster risks linkages.

Several assessments had already been done by previous researchers on the

impacts of land-use change and watershed management on climate related hazards and

disasters. These previous studies may be categorized their emphases on the following: (1)

institutional issues on managing watersheds; (2) impacts of various factors on certain

hazard-related damages including erosion and flooding;(3) impact of watershed

management on pollution reduction and increase of production and other economic gains;

(4) adaptation measures of affected communities around the watershed; and (5) the

relationship among watershed management, land use changes and climate change and its

impacts. This proposed study is primarily interested in the studies within this last

category.

Tragedy of the Commons, IWRM and Collaborative Governance

There are three key concepts relevant to land use and watershed management that

are of interest to this study. These are the Hardin’s theory on “tragedy of the commons”

problem, Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) and Collaborative

Governance.

Hardin’s theory on “tragedy of the commons” (1968) illustrates a situation

wherein problem arises from multiple entities acting independently in their own self-
 1818

interest in use of finite and common resource. As in the case of the Angat River, wherein

socio-economic development and subsequent urbanization and industrialization patterns

are common around its zone, changes in land uses may contribute to the effects of known

climate related hazards such as flooding in the surrounding areas. This also refers to

several government agencies, local government units, multi-sectoral organizations and

other concerned stakeholders with different objectives, methods and strategies on

implementing water and land use policies, programs and projects around the Angat River.

Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) refers to the process which

promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related

resources in order to maximise economic and social welfare in an equitable manner

without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems and the environment (Global

Water Partnership, year?).Institutional issues over land use and river management

involved the evaluation of the roles and different stakeholders such as the planners,

affected community, and public officials. Specific studies on delegating water

governance (Nowlan and Bakker, 2007), reconfiguring environmental governance

(Bulkeley, 2005), and watershed scale social assessment (Wagner, 2005) all agreed that

accountability of different stakeholders must be well defined and that their performances

are measured to ensure that everyone in the community are contributing to the betterment

of watershed management. Also, these studies stress the importance of communication

and networking among different member of the society as an effective mechanism of

working under similar environmental goals and objectives of all the affected people.

The abovementioned studies also explore how the shared responsibility of every

public citizen contributes to the attainment of the improved watershed management that
 1919

will later benefit not only the government but most especially the people living in the

area. This sharing of power and responsibility between the government and people in

addressing watershed management is best captured with practice of collaborative

governance.

IWRM is best implemented by inter-jurisdictional bodies engaged in various

forms of innovate cooperation and collaborative governance. Collaborative governance

can be characterized as a form of governance where the state and non-state stakeholders

engage in mutual decision making process in order to deal with public policy problems

that may not be easily addressed by an organization or sectors (Angeles 2011).

Factors Affecting and Affected by Watershed Activities

Most of the existing studies deal with the different factors affecting watershed

activities – thus the people and their environment. Several factors already examined by

other studies include land use conservation linkages (Gitau, et.al., 2010 and

Prakash,et.al., 2007); damages caused by hazards such as erosion (Nikkami, et.al., 2009

and Yeo, et.al., 2009) and flooding (Goulter, et.al., 1983); and people’s livelihoods

including levels of productivity and income (Nikkami, et.al., 2009).

Under certain scenarios, these factors (e.g. conservation, hazard damages,

productivity and income) are affected by land use patterns and watershed management.

For instance, land use changes eventually affect the water quality in the watershed and

therefore will require conservation (Gitau, et.al., 2010). On the other hand, conservation

through alternative land use options such as water and soil conservation activities may be

a good option for watershed management that will eventually impact agricultural

activities in the watershed (Prakash, et.al., 2007).

 2020

Another factor, i.e. hazard damage, may be the result of land use patterns and can

be resolved or minimized by land use changes as well. Studies that look at the

relationship between land use and impacts of hazards include hierarchical optimization

approach to land use planning (Yeo, et.al., 2007), land use scenarios and optimization in

a watershed (Nikkami, et.al., 2009) and watershed land use planning under uncertainty

(Goulter, et.al., 1983). All of these studies agree that various optimization strategies and

specific guidelines may help improve watershed management and will therefore

minimize disaster risks.

Another concern raised in the previous studies is how land use patterns and

changes may improve agricultural yields or generally the income generation of the people

living in the watershed. Studies mentioned earlier including the land use scenarios and

optimization in a watershed (Nikkami, et.al., 2009) concluded that only with proper land

uses plus land management that the results will be of most beneficial not only to the

watershed but also to the socioeconomic activities and yields of the people.

Community Adaptation to Impacts of Land Use Change and Other Factors

The available literature also reveals that as land use patterns change gradually, the

people are able to adapt and adjust accordingly with or without the intervention of the

institutions and the impacts of climate variability (Hageback, et.al., 2005). This argument

stresses the need for planners and decision makers to consider very well the capacity,

knowledge and concerns of the people before creating policies and implementing

watershed activities. More relevant secondary literature will be reviewed in the final

thesis output.
 2121

Scalar Analysis of Land-Use Patterns and Climate Change

A number of studies also explore the relationship between scales, land use and

climate change along with their underlying concepts and specific issues. For instance, a

study on the effects of land cover conversion on surface climate argues that changes in

land uses vary its impacts on a scalar basis (Bounoua., et.al., 2002). The study concluded

that the larger the area, the less it may be affected by average climate change, while on a

smaller area, changes in land use may have significant impacts on the surface climate.

Meanwhile, there are other research works (e.g. Yeo, et.al., 2007) arguing that it

is the geophysical properties of the area such as soil properties that influence proper

approach to watershed management more than changes in land uses.

Land-Use and Land Cover Changes Impacts on the Environment

There are also several studies (e.g. n.d. 1998, Johnson 2005, Mitchell 2011,

Randolph 2012) on the impact of land use plans and land cover changes on the

environment, particularly on air quality which could exacerbate climate change. One is

recommending for instance that policymakers must be made aware of how land use

changes influence at least local weather, climate and atmospheric conditions (Molders,

N., 2012). Considering the basic cause and effect relationship, this is simply stating that

land use changes are among the factors that affect climate processes. However, this study

identifies not those specific changes in atmospheric conditions but the risks brought about

by the climate-related hazards such as flooding.

Research Gaps to be Filled by This Research

This research fills the existing knowledge gaps in the understanding of land use

and climate risks linkages by providing site specific empirical data not available in
 2222

previous studies. To date, there is still no research undertaken clarifying the relationship

between disaster risks, climate change induced hazards, and land use patterns in river

basin or watershed areas, particularly at the municipal level in Bulacan province.

There is limited research clarifying the relationship between disaster risks, climate

change-induced hazards, and the land use patterns in river basin or watershed areas,

particularly in the Philippines. Most of these previous studies deal with land use and

watershed issues in site-specific contexts in other countries such as China (Hageback,

et.al., 2005), Middle East (Prakash, et.al., 2007 &Nikkami, et.al., 2009), Canada

(Nowlan& Bakker, 2007), and the United States (Gitau, et.al., 2010, Yeo, et.al., 2009,

and Bounoua, et.al., 2002).

 2323

III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

This chapter provides information on research methodology details that will be

used in this study. It will describe the methodology itself, sources of data, research

instruments and procedures to be used in data gathering as well as the tools and processes

that will be used in processing and analyzing the data.

Conceptual-Analytical Framework

The available literature stresses that several factors in watershed management are

interrelated. Thus, this study will take a look at their dynamics or how their

interrelatedness is played-out in a specific research site such as Angat River Basin. Given

the major variables of this study, namely, climate change induced hazards, disasters risks,

land use patterns, and institutional interventions, the following conceptual model will

serve as guide in understanding their relationships and the dynamics of their

interrelatedness throughout the research process.

 2424

Figure 1:Conceptual-Analytical Framework

Angat River Basin as Tragedy of the Commons Problem

Geo-Hazards and Climate Change:

 Flooding/ flash floods
 River bank erosion

Land Use Patterns: Institutional Polices/ Laws/

 Built-environment Disaster Risks: Regulations:
within the river right-  Potential loss of lives  Angat River Basin
of-way and damage to Management
 Encroachment to properties  CLUP/ Zoning
hazard susceptible  Social and economic Ordinances
areas disruption  Water Code
 Building Code

Collaborative Governance as Potential Solution

These variables are categorized as independent, dependent, and moderating. For

this study, the climate change induced hazards serve as the independent variables, which

no matter what the institution and the people do will still exist. The dependent variable

disaster risks such as loss of lives, property damage and socio-economic disruptions are

dependent on the independentvariable of geo-hazards and climate related risks. The

moderating variables are the land use patterns and interventions from institutions through

policies, laws, and regulations that can reduce the disaster risk-related impacts. The

overlapping moderating variables show how land use patterns and institutional
 2525

interventions both shape and affect the degree of disaster risks to human population and

properties.

Methods and Techniques of the Study

This study utilized concurrent or parallel mixed methods research design for

triangulation (Hesse-Biber 2010: 68). Quantitative and qualitative research methods of

data gathering and analyses were concurrently carried out as separate but related sub-

studies within the same project. The data from these two approaches were then combined

in the analysis and writing process to demonstrate the synergy, parallels and

communication between the quantitative and qualitative findings. Quantitative approach

was employed in the gathering and analysis of quantitative data through surveys

conducted in river-fronting communities in the two selected municipalities, as well as the

collection and analyses of otheravailable statistical data and spatially-referenced maps.

Qualitative approach, particularly in-depth interviews with open-ended questions, was

used to collect qualitative data and provide inferential analysis to existing documents on

land use and zoning. This also includes ground survey and ocular inspectionof settlement

and other land forms directly fronting the AngatRiver to establish its actual conditions.

Sources of Quantitative and Qualitative Data

Maps were included in the primary data necessary for this study. These include

land use maps from concerned municipalities, geo-hazard maps from mandated

government agencies, and other supporting maps from various sources. Satellite image

maps were also used to determine land use patterns. These satellite image maps were

acquired from the Provincial Planning and Development Office of the Province of

Bulacan and from the internet, specifically the Google Earth.

 2626

The Provincial Physical Framework Plan (PPFP) of the Province of Bulacan as

well as the Comprehensive Land Use Plans (CLUP) of the municipalities of Plaridel and

Pulilan were also reviewed since the PPFP indicatesthe land use plan for the provincial

and municipal levels and the CLUP for the municipal and barangay levels. However,

both of these plansoften lack the provisions for understanding disaster risks in the

riverfront communities. This is important since, as mentioned in the section on

significance of this research, this study focuses on land use patterns that are aggravating

climate-change related risks levels.

Qualitative data were generated from narrative accounts and interview results.

Interviews were conducted with local officials, particularly the Municipal Planning and

Development Coordinator, members of the Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and

Management Council, and the Barangay officials in the river fronting communities.

Theseinterviews with keyinformants werealso used to validate data acquired on GIS

maps and other vulnerability indicators.

Historical data on past occurrences of climate-change related disasters were given

emphasis to further characterize the hazards and establish possible range of risk levels to

elements at risk such as population and properties. This information wasobtained from

the records of Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office at the regional, provincial

and municipal level. However, more detailed accounts on past occurrences were

acquired from key informants on affected communities and used as supplemental facts.

Reports or publications from National Government Agencies (NGAs) and

localgovernments were also used to augment and validate the primary data gathered.

This may include PAGASA report on Climate Change in the Philippines, the
 2727

NEDA/UNDP publication on Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Assessment in Sub-national

Development and Land use Planning and the Disaster Risk Assessment report from the

Provincial Government of Bulacan.

Procedures in Data Gathering

The researcher personally requested copies or access to Comprehensive Land Use

Plans and older CLUPs of the Municipality of Plaridel and Pulilan. Previous land use

plan and maps were highly utilized in this study to determine land use change pattern.

The researcher also requested access and permission to use maps from the

Provincial Government and PDRRMO of Bulacan and Available data on past disasters

were also requested from the localor barangay DRRM committees, if available.

Internet-acquired satelliteimageries provided the basis of validation of land use

changes at the site level. Authorization from PPDO was secured touse of available

satellite imageries andto further confirm changes in land uses.The researcher also

conducted ocular inspection in riverfront communities and other critical areas after

further analysis of land use data. This data validation stage also included interviews with

Municipal Planning and Development Officers (MPDO)(n= 2) and Barangay Officials in

Plaridel (n= 2) and Pulilan (n=1) and key informants, particularly elders residents and

leaders of informal settlement organizations (n=4) for qualitative data on histories and

memories of geographical land use changes not captured in the CLUPs, stories on

conflictingland use regulations,land acquisition, ownership and enforcement of existing

land use or zoning ordinances, and climate change risks and impacts affecting the

vulnerable barangays. The interviews and narratives supplied qualitative responses that

validated the quantitative data from GIS maps.

 2828

Research Instruments

One significant method employed in this study in data gathering is the request of

CLUP facts and maps from the municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan. The Municipal

Planning and Development Officers of each municipality were the primary interview

respondents and source of local data validation. See Annex 1 for the guide questions

used in the interview of MPDO staff, as well as the barangay officials and key informants

in the area. A separate questionnaire was used for residents to assess the conditions of

communities living in front of the river and provide a glimpse of their vulnerabilities

arising from land use changes.

Data Processing and Analysis

The Geographic Information System tools were widely used in this research since

maps are the primary data. The GIS that usually organizes and works with computer

software was used for mapping the barangays in the municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan

directly fronting the AngatRiver. The GIS software also has the functionality to make an

overlay analysis of two or more maps such as historical land use to determine the change

patterns and its extents. Overlay of hazard maps to resultant land use maps was made to

determine the coverage of exposure for each land use to certain hazard such as flooding.

These exposed elements were multiplied to the calculated factors of fatality and property

damage to determine risks.

Triangulation was applied to validate GIS results using qualitative responses

through ground survey and informal interview with officials and key informants for its

actual condition to identify and evaluate land use patterns that exacerbate climate-related

risks.
 2929

The collected data on past flooding occurrences were tabulated toestablish the

historical level of disaster risks. As advised by NEDA from Mainstreaming Disaster Risk

Reduction in Sub-national Development and Land Use Planning in the Philippines

(2008), risk level on population was calculated in terms of affected population and risk

level on properties will be expressed in terms of damages. The research also used the

same mainstreaming guidelines released by NEDA in 2008 to do a risk and vulnerability

assessment on people and properties in the river fronting communities in the research

sites.

Hypothesis and Arguments of the Study

This study, as mentioned earlier, is interested in addressing how current land use

patterns at the municipal and barangay scales are connected to disaster risks, such as

flooding in the low lying areas and river front barangays in the Angat River towns of

Pulilan and Plaridel. The study suggests the following hypotheses or propositions:

1. There are differential impacts of climate and disaster risks on current land use

patterns at the municipal and barangay scales.

a. The most vulnerable and negatively affectedare precarious built-up industrial

and urbanized areas and informal settlements in barangays closest to the end

of the river.

b. Therefore current land use patterns in these vulnerable areas are exacerbated

by disaster risks, such as flooding in the low lying areas and river front

barangays.

2. The most significant hindering factor to the successful and sustainable land use

planning and management of land uses in these vulnerable areas is the conflict
 3030

over land use regulations and acquisition, ownership and enforcement of existing.

Definition of Terms

In this study, the following concepts and terminologies are defined and

operationalized as follows:

Watershed/ Riverbasin. This will refer to a boundary of land area where surface

water from rain converges to an exit of river where the waters joins the sea or ocean.

Land Use Types. This refers to the distinct human use of the land. This includes

residential, institutional, industrial, commercial and agricultural areas of land use type.

Land use patterns. This is the change in land use of a specific area over a period

of time and thereby present trends in future land use. Dominant land use patterns more

often than not present important negative effects such as urban sprawling, soil sealing and

erosion, loss of biodiversity, soil degradation and flooding.

Zoning and zoning regulations. This refers to the division of city/municipality

into districts or zones. This is considered as the power-based decision-making around

land use planning ideals and objectives.

Climate change risks. This refers to risks resulting from hazards brought about

or directly influenced by climate change such as flooding, rainfall-induced

landslides,drought and storm surges. These risks are generally determined or measured

in terms of fatality on the exposed population to hazards and amount of damages in

properties exposed to hazards.

Land use policies are the implementing rules, regulations, guidelines and

programs developed by the government, both national and local, concerning the proper

uses of lands, including those beneath water bodies, and its limitations affecting decision
 3131

making on the current and potential uses of land.

Built-up areas.Refer to areas with contiguous grouping of ten (10) or more

structures on it.

Urban areas.Refer to all cities regardless of their population density and

tomunicipalities with a population density of at least five hundred (500)

personspersquarekilometer. (Art. I, Sec. 3, R.A. 7279)

Informal settlements.Refer to (1) areas where groups of housing units have been

constructed on land that the occupants have no legal claim to, or occupy illegally, and (2)

unplanned settlements and areas where housing is not in compliance with current

planning and building regulations (unauthorized housing) (Glossary of Environment

Statistics)

Climate change mitigation. These are programs, projects or activities intended

to mitigate changes in global climate such as reforestation and reducing greenhouse gases

emission.

Climate change adaptation.These may refer to programs, projects or activities

intended to make people and properties adapt to risks brought about by climate change

such as preparedness programs, land use policies, retrofitting structures or clearing of

water ways.

Disaster risks assessment.This refers to the process of identifying, analyzing and

evaluating the risks brought about by hazards to the specific area expressed in terms of

potentially affected population and potential damages to properties.

Hazards refers to natural phenomenon posing threats or dangers including its

intensity or likelihood of occurrence.

 3232

Exposure is the number population or amount properties exposed to hazards of

varying degrees basically of its geographic locations.

Vulnerability refers to the level of impact that hazard could incurred to exposed

elements considering its overall conditions.

Geographic Information System refers to an organized collection of computer

hardware, software, geographic data and personnel designed to efficiently capture, store,

update, manipulate, analyze, and display all forms of geographically referenced

information.

Limitations of the Research

The study only focused on the empirical data collection and analysis of issues and

problems in the barangays directly fronting the Angat River in the municipalities of

Plaridel and Pulilan.Thesebarangays include Banga I, Banga II, Bintog, Culianin,

Dampol, Lumang Bayan, Parulan, Poblacion, Rueda, San Jose andSipatin the

municipality of Plaridel and the barangays Cutcut, Dampol I, Dampol II-A, Dampol II-B,

Taal, Sto. Cristo, Longos, Paltao, Poblacion, Lumbac andTibag in the municipality of

Pulilan.

Although the study aims to generate local and community-based data, the scale at

which disaster-inducing land use patterns often occurs, the research hopes to

generateinsights that are also relevant to other Philippine municipal and provincial

governments and non-government agencies as well.

 3333

IV. PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION OF DATA

This chapter presents and analyzes all available data gathered for this study.

These data are basically categorized into four categories according to its relevance such

as the land use patterns and policies in Plaridel and Pulilan, the climate related risks in

the subject area, the relationship of land use and climate risks and the analysis of

contributing issues to disaster risks concerning land use.

A. Land Use Patterns and Policies in Plaridel and Pulilan, Bulacan

This section discusses the land uses changes in the study area and its exhibiting

patterns overtime based on the research results. It first describes the subject

municipalities and the known information around it. Then, it established the actual land

uses based on the available GIS data to form the inference for the land use patterns and

trends. Finally, thissection discusses the existing land use policies and zoning ordinance

in the Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan.

Research Sites

The areas covered in this study are the municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan in the

Province of Bulacan, particularly those Barangays fronting the Angat River. The figure

below shows the Administrative Map of the Province of Bulacan.

 3434

Figure 2:Administrative Map – Province of Bulacan

Source: Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan – Provincial Government of Bulacan

The administrative map also shows the relative land areas and distances of the

subject municipalities with respect to the province as a whole and to other municipalities

and cities in Bulacan. Listed below are some of the gathered facts on the land area,

population and number of barangays of all the local government units in the province of

Bulacan.

Table 1: Land Area Distribution and Number of Barangays per Municipality/City

Total Number 2010 Population Land Area A&D Land Area 2010 A&D
Municipality/ City
of Barangays (Rel. April 2012) (Sq. Km.) (Sq. Km.) Density
District I 153 670,237 385.73 385.73 1,738
Bulakan 14 71,751 72.9 72.9 984
Calumpit 29 101,068 56.25 56.25 1,797
Hagonoy 26 125,689 103.1 103.1 1,219
 3535

Malolos City 51 234,945 67.25 67.25 3,494

Paombong 14 50,940 46.34 46.34 1,099
Pulilan 19 85,844 39.89 39.89 2,152
District II 124 636,425 266.71 266.71 2,386
Balagtas 9 65,440 28.66 28.66 2,283
Baliwag 27 143,565 45.05 45.05 3,187
Bocaue 19 106,407 31.87 31.87 3,339
Bustos 14 62,415 69.99 69.99 892
Guiguinto 14 90,507 27.5 27.5 3,291
Pandi 22 66,650 31.2 31.2 2,136
Plaridel 19 101,441 32.44 32.44 3,127
District III 156 502,080 1,829.27 885.79 567
Angat 16 55,332 74 74 748
DRT 8 19,878 932.96 190.97 104
Norzagaray 13 103,095 309.77 108.28 952
San Ildefonso 36 95,000 128.71 128.71 738
San Miguel 49 142,854 231.4 231.4 617
San Rafael 34 85,921 152.43 152.43 564
District IV 77 661,138 208.86 208.86 3,165
Marilao 16 185,624 33.74 33.74 5,502
Meycauayan City 26 199,154 32.1 32.1 6,204
Obando 11 58,009 52.1 52.1 1,113
Santa Maria 24 218,351 90.92 90.92 2,402
Lone District 59 454,553 105.53 103.91 4,374
San Jose Del Monte City 59 454,553 105.53 103.91 4,374
BULACAN 569 2,924,433 2,796.10 1,851.00 1,580
Source: Land Management Bureau - Department of Environment and Natural Resources; National Statistics Office 2010 Census of
Population

Based on the table above, the Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan both have 19

barangays each with nearly equal land area, however being separated not only by the

Angat River but also by the Congressional District representation. Pulilan is among the

municipalities of first district of Bulacan while Plaridel is in the second district.

General Land Use Patterns

The following figure is the general land use map for the municipality of Plaridel

and Pulilan for the year 1997 based on the Provincial Physical Framework Plan of

Province of Bulacan.
 3636

Figure 3: General Land Use Map 1997 – Plaridel and Pulilan

Source: Provincial Physical Framework Plan – Provincial Government of Bulacan

The following figure is the general land use map for the municipality of Plaridel

and Pulilan for the year 2007 based on the NAMRIA Topographic Map.
 3737

Figure 4: General Land Use Map 2007 – Plaridel and Pulilan

Source: Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan – Provincial Government of Bulacan

The Focus of the Study

As being stated in the scope of this study, there are coincidentally 11 out of 19

barangays in each of Plaridel and Pulilan are directly fronting the Angat River. This will

be further illustrated in the following figure wherein the zoomed-in map for the study

area is represented.
 3838

Figure 5:Barangays from Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan

Source: Provincial Planning and Development Office – Provincial Government of Bulacan

The barangays directly fronting the Angat River in the municipalities of Plaridel

include Banga I, Banga II, Bintog, Culianin, Dampol, Lumang Bayan, Parulan,

Poblacion, Rueda, San Jose and Sipat. In Pulilan, the barangays of Cutcot, Dampol I,

Dampol II-A, Dampol II-B, Taal, Sto. Cristo, Longos, Paltao, Poblacion, Lumbac and

Tibag are the ones directly facing the river.

The following table shows the land area and demographic characteristics of these

barangays.

Table 2: Demographic Characteristics of Research Site

Land Area – Has 2010 2007 2000 No. of Households No. of Households
BARANGAY
(GIS-Derived) POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION (2005 CBMS) (2000 Census)
MUNICIPALITY OF PLARIDEL
1. Banga I 97.80 6,710 7,101 5,370 1,173 1,154
2. Banga II 69.18 8,775 9,528 7,696 1,782 1,560
3. Bintog 183.45 3,930 3,390 3,153 721 666
4. Culianin 253.26 4,177 4,795 3,524 781 725
5. Dampol 16.83 3,111 3,165 2,466 534 497
 3939

6. Lumang Bayan 87.44 4,370 4,119 4,129 841 834

7. Parulan 343.29 8,461 7,252 5,992 1,160 1,210
8. Poblacion 30.19 3,907 4,090 3,589 790 741
9. Rueda 75.78 1,788 1,959 1,527 370 298
10. San Jose 305.45 4,197 4,130 3,039 699 659
11. Sipat 190.94 5,367 7,268 1,773 989 366
MUNICIPALITY OF PULILAN
1. Cutcot 314.85 4,844 4,566 2,908 729 613
2. Dampol I 142.65 5,602 5,623 4,415 1,025 930
3. Dampol II-A 173.76 3,001 3,425 2,617 663 562
4. Dampol II-B 173.67 3,958 4,092 2,986 708 600
5. Longos 99.93 5,105 4,689 4,370 989 922
6. Lumbac 113.63 3,958 3,631 3,208 738 663
7. Paltao 212.74 5,705 5,637 4,565 1,120 897
8. Poblacion 221.77 11,858 12,330 9,944 2,093 2,054
9. Sto. Cristo 139.77 6,405 6,182 5,403 1,088 1,145
10. Taal 234.14 5,711 5,664 4,223 1,011 876
11. Tibag 59.58 2,845 3,356 3,070 684 610
Source: National Statistics Office (NSO) – Census of Population and Housing/ Provincial Government of Bulacan report on
Community-Based Monitoring System (CBMS)

The barangays of Banga II, Parulan and Banga I have the largest population in the

study area from Municipality of Plaridel based on the 2010 Census of Population and

Housing (CPH). From Pulilan, the barangays of Poblacion, Sto. Cristo, Paltao and Taal

are among those with the largest population count. To be able to view the specific area of

this study, the following figure (See Figure 6.) shows the focus base map of the selected

barangays in the subject municipalities.

 4040

Figure 6:Base Map – Riverfront Barangays of Plaridel and Pulilan

Source: Provincial Planning and Development Office – Province of Bulacan

The following figure is the base map with the overlaying of satellite image.
 4141

Figure 7:Base Map – Riverfront Barangays with Satellite Image

Source: Provincial Planning and Development Office – Province of Bulacan

Determining the extent of land use patterns within the subject area

One consideration in determining the distance from the riverbank is about the

river easement protection policy which is 40 meters for forest area, 20 meters for

agricultural areas and 3-5 meters for built-up areas. (“Article 51. The banks of rivers and

streams and the shores of the seas, and throughout their entire length and within a zone of

three (3) meters in urban areas, twenty (20) meters in agricultural areas and forty (40)

meters in forest areas, along their margins, are subject to the easement of public use in the

interest of recreation, navigation, floatage, fishing and salvage... “ (P.D. 1067 – Water

code of the Philippines))

In this study, a buffer clearance of 100 and 200 meters are used to determine the

area of land use changes from riverbanks to cover the recommended easement with
 4242

additional buffer. Using the GIS Buffer Analysis tool, the following map shows the

River Distance Zone map which is represented with 0-100 meters and 100-200 meters

zone respectively from the river bank.

Figure 8:River Distance Zone Map

Source: Provincial Planning and Development Office – Province of Bulacan

Base on this map, the areas within the 200 meters distance zone are included in

the research and analysis of land use changes to establish the land use patterns,

particularly in the riverfront communities of the subject municipalities.

Records of Land Uses as of 1990/ 2000 and 2010

Land use categories that are used in this study are generally classified such as

built and un-built environment. Built-up areas are comprised of residential, institutional,

commercial and industrial areas including the roads and other transportation networks.
 4343

The un-built environment includes the agricultural areas, forest lands, open spaces and

other production areas with basically no built structures in it.

The first land use record that was gathered is from the Provincial Government of

Bulacan. The Provincial Physical Framework Plan (PPFP) with the planning period of

1998-2007, shows the land use of the area for the year 1997. The primary source of this

land use data is the National Mapping and Resource Institute Authority (NAMRIA) of

the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR).

Figure 9:General Land Use Map 1997 – Riverfront Barangays

Source: Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan – Provincial Government of Bulacan

Since the plan period of the PPFP has lapsed, updating of the plan was conducted

and the Province of Bulacan came up with the Provincial Development and Physical

Framework Plan (PDPFP) with the planning period of 2010-2020. As of this writing, the

plan is undergoing approval stage. However the data on land use may be used reasonably
 4444

since its primary source is the NAMRIA Topographic maps of 2007. The next figure

below shows the general land use map of the subject area for the year 2007.

Figure 10:General Land Use Map 2007 – Riverfront Barangays

Source: Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan – Provincial Government of Bulacan

Using the Google Earth maps, the satellite images are downloaded and projected

using the GIS Software. Once the satellite images are completed for the area, the land

use details are digitized to be able to produce the land use map for the referenced year.

The available historical images from Google Earth for the subject area are dated May 1,

2011, February 8, 2010, November 14, 2004 and May 2, 2002 respectively.

Since this study already established the general land use of the subject area for the

year 1997 and 2007, it is rather significant to generate additional land use maps for the

year 2002 and 2011. Therefore, the four general land use maps with the reference year of

1997, 2002, 2007 and 2011 will be used as an input to analyze the land use patterns.
 4545

The figure below (see Figure 11) is the general land use map of the subject area

based on Google Earth with the following map overlaid with the satellite image for the

year 2002.

Figure 11:General Land Use Map 2002 of Riverfront Barangays

Source: Google Earth Satellite Image

The next figure (see Figure 12) is the general land use map of the subject area

based on Google Earth with the following map showing the satellite image for the year

2011.
 4646

Figure 12:General Land Use Map 2011 of Riverfront Barangays

Source: Google Earth Satellite Image

Comprehensive Land Use Plans

The available land use maps from the CLUP of the subject municipalities are used

as an additional reference for validating the acquired land use maps from PPFP /PDPFP

of Bulacan Province and the generated land use maps from Google Earth. The table

below is the list of available historical CLUPs in the municipality of Plaridel and Pulilan

and its corresponding status.

Municipality CLUP/ Zoning Ordinance Status

CLUP/ Zoning Ordinance LGU revising based on comments/

Plaridel 2002-2012 recommendations done by the
Approved by SB on July 2006 PLUC during its preliminary
review on September 2006.

Pulilan CLUP/ ZO 1996-2010 Approved SP KapasiyahanBlg. 97-

219 dated April 21, 1997
 4747

CLUP/ ZO 2011-2020 PLUC conducted initial review on

August 31, 2012. Currently
updating based on comments.

The Municipality of Plaridel has an approved CLUP and Zoning Ordinance at the

Sangguniang Bayan level but was not approved by the Provincial Land Use Committee

(PLUC) due to missing factors on infrastructure development such as the Plaridel Bypass

Road. (see notes of the PLUC review) The CLUP with the planning period of 2002-2012

with its corresponding Zoning Ordinance was approved by the Sangguniang Bayan

through the Resolution No. 50-2006 on July 24, 2006. However, based on the Town Plan

approved by the HLURB, there is an available proposed general land used map as shown

below.

Figure 13:Proposed General Land Use Map of Plaridel

Source: Plaridel Town Plan

The figure above is the proposed land use map for the municipality of Plaridel
 4848

approved in the year 1980 while the next figure is the existing land use map from its

CLUP 2002-2012 which is under revision based on the recommendations done by the

PLUC on its review last September 2006.

Figure 14:Existing Land Use Map of Plaridel

Source: Plaridel Proposed CLUP 2002-2012

If the factor on the missed infrastructure development, as commented by the

PLUC on the review of CLUP 2002-2012, such as the Plaridel By-pass Road will be

considered, the land use map for the riverfront areas of Plaridel may still be valid because

the location of this infrastructure project is far beyond our study area. Based on the

figure below, the Plaridel By-pass Road passes through Barangay Bulihan, which is not

one of the riverfront barangays of the municipality. But one of its access road connects

to Plaridel-Pulilan Diversion Road within Barangay Banga II. This is however beyond
 4949

the focus area of within 200 meters from riverbanks.

Figure 15: Location of Plaridel By-pass Road

Source: Google Maps

In the Municipality of Pulilan, the prevailing plan is the CLUP of 1996-2010

which is SB approved on 1997 and by the SangguniangPanlalawigan on 1997. While

there is indirect map representation of existing land use in the CLUP 2011-2020 of

Pulilan, the following figure is the proposed land use map (see Figure 16).
 5050

Figure 16: Proposed Land Use Map of Pulilan

Source: Proposed CLUP 2011-2020 of Pulilan

Land Use Patterns

The GIS Overlay Analysis tool is used to determine the land use patterns in the

subject area based on the established land use maps. From the land use planning

perspective, it can be concluded that the pattern of changes is simply stating that un-built

environment is rapidly turning into built-up areas, most probably human settlements

which cater to the growing population. It is however an outstanding issue since urban

growth is sprawling along the major river system, which is hazardous to climate-change

related disasters such as flooding.

The urban sprawl indicated from the gathered statistics and maps were confirmed

by the local authorities on municipal and barangay levels as well as the random surveys
 5151

conducted by the researcher. These include interviews on Municipal Planning

Development officers and casual social interaction to key informant from the barangays

Figure 17: Researchers Conducting Interview

Photo Credits: R. Legaspi – Interviews on residents fromSto. Cristo, Pulilan

Most of the growth of urbanized areas is visibly from the spread out of existing

built-up zones while there also emerged some packets of settlements from previously

open locations. However, both municipalities have attributed some issues of these built-

up expansions directly fronting the Angat River to the increasing informal settlements.

The details of which are discussed in the Analysis of Contributing Issues to Disaster

Risks Concerning Land Use sectionof this chapter.

Existing Land Use Policies and Zoning Ordinances

Land use policies recommended from the CLUPs are basically implemented as

law through a Zoning Ordinance. The Local Government Code of 1991 (RA 7160)

mandates LGUs to prepare a comprehensive land use plan (CLUP). The CLUP shall be

the LGU’s primary basis for the future use of land resources. To put the plan into effect,

municipalities and cities are empowered by law to adopt zoning ordinances and
 5252

regulations. A zoning ordinance is a valid exercise of executive and legislative powers to

promote the good order and general welfare of the people in the locality (DILG –

Unpacking the Local Government Code).

In the Municipality of Pulilan, the prevailing land use policy was enacted in 1996

known as the Zoning Ordinance of Pulilan, Bulacan (Ordinance No. 20-’96) approved

through Resolution No .107-’96. Updating of the CLUP is currently being undertaken by

the municipality with the planning period of (2011-2020)

According to its Section 2 of Article III, the ZO is enacted for the following

purposes:

 Promote and protect the health, safety, peace, morale, comforts, conveniences and

general welfare of the inhabitants;

 Guide, control and regulate future growth and development in accordance with

the development plan of the municipality;

 Protect the character and stability of the urban uses such as residential,

commercial, industrial, open space, institutional, and other non-urban uses such as

tourism and agricultural zones within the municipality and promote the orderly

and beneficial development of the same;

 Provide adequate light, air, privacy, and convenience of access to properties;

 Regulate the location and uses of the buildings and land adjacent to streets and

thoroughfares so that existing and prospective traffic movement will not

jeopardized public safety.

 5353

The Article V of the ZO 1996 of Pulilan states the provision on land use

regulations for the municipality. This enumerates the allowable uses in its Annex for the

following district or zone boundaries:

 Residential Zone

 Commercial Zone

 Institutional Zone

 Industrial Zone

 Agricultural/ Agro-Industrial Zone

It is also stated in the Section 5 under Article VIII referred to as Environmental

Management of the Buffer Strips or river easement. The banks of the rivers and streams

should observed a three (3)- meter setback in the urban areas; a twenty (20) meter

easement in all agricultural areas and a forty (40) meter easement for all forest uses that

may be used by the public for recreation, navigation, floatage, fishing and salvaging and

other water-related activities.

The Article X states that the Zoning Administrator is empowered to perform the

duties provided therein for the administration and enforcement of this ordinance. Such

duties include the granting or denying, with or without conditions, applications for the

exceptions and variances in zones.

As it is referred that the status of the CLUP/ ZO 1996-2010 lapsed, the

Municipality of Pulilan is in the process of updating the plan. In fact, as of this writing, it

has already presented its draft document to preliminary meeting with PLUC in August

2012 and gathered additional comments for inclusion in the plan.

The updated CLUP with the planning period of 2011-2020 provides Pulilan’s
 5454

initial land use regulation objectives. This includes the aim to provide for settlement

development or expansion to accommodate the increasing population towards areas

where there will be minimum pressure on the ecological balance and on highly

productive agricultural lands, and away from areas exposed to natural hazards thereby

minimizing physical vulnerabilities of families. Concerning the Angat River, the

municipality likewise aims to provide opportunities for the development of the tourism

industry of the municipality focused on the river in line with the priorities of the

Provincial Government of Bulacan. The ZO for this CLUP needs updating.

On the other hand, the Municipality of Plaridel has an approved CLUP and

Zoning Ordinance at the Sangguniang Bayan level but was not approved by the

Provincial Land Use Committee due to missing factors on infrastructure development

such as the Plaridel Bypass Road. The CLUP with the planning period of 2002-2012

with its corresponding Zoning Ordinance was approved by the Sangguniang Bayan

through the Resolution No. 50-2006 on July 24, 2006. As this has been approved and no

other overlapping ordinances have been created, this is considered to be prevailing

Ordinance.

The latest/lone Zoning Ordinance, as stated from its Section 3 of Article 1 was

enacted for the following purposes:

 Guide, control and regulate the future growth an development of Plaridel,

Bulacan in accordance with its Comprehensive Land Use Plan

 Protect the character and stability of the urban uses such as residential,

commercial, industrial, open space, institutional, and other non-urban uses

 5555

such as tourism and agricultural zones within the municipality and promote

the orderly and beneficial development of the same.

 Promote and protect the health, safety, peace, comfort, convenience and

general welfare of the inhabitants of the municipality.

 Ensure and protect the sustainable growth and development of the community.

The Article V of the ZO 2006 of Plaridel provides terms on Land Use Regulations

for the Municipality. This enumerates allowable uses for the following zones.

 Residential Zone

 Commercial Zone

 Light Industrial Zone

 Institutional Zone

 Parks and Recreation Zone

 Agricultural Zone

 Agro-Industrial Zone

 Forest Zone

 Utilities Zone

Each of these zones has enumerated allowable uses for lands though General

Provisions states that the lists are neither exhaustive nor all-inclusive. The Local Zoning

Board Adjudication and Appeals (LBZAA) shall, subject to the requirements of

provision, allow other uses not enumerated in the list provided that they are compatible

with uses expressly allowed. Allowance of further uses shall be based on the intrinsic

qualities of the land and the socio-economic potential of the locality with due regard to

the appropriate sustainable development principles and the maintenance of the essential
 5656

qualities of the zone.

The article also sets provisions for Road Setback and river easement pursuant to

the provisions of the Water Code. The banks of the rivers and streams and the shores of

lakes throughout their entire length and within a zone of three (3) meters in the urban

areas; twenty (20) meters in agricultural areas and forty (40) meters in forest areas along

their margins, are subject to the easement of public use in the interest of recreation,

navigation, floatage, fishing and salvage. No person shall be allowed to stay in this zone

longer than necessary. Building structures of any kind in this zone is absolutely

prohibited.

Moreover, Article VIII of the same ZO created the LBZAA for the administration

and enforcements of its provisions and has been delegated responsible to act on

application, complaints and opposition to variances, exceptions and non-conforming land

uses.

At the province level, the Provincial Government of Bulacan issued an Executive

Order 09 Series of 2012 Ordering the relocation /transfer of residents and/or communities

living within of near riverbanks, streams, waterways, or canals, torrents and areas prone

to landslides, mudslides , and low lying communities classified as multi-hazard zone in

the Province of Bulacan in reference to the mandates of 1987 Philippine Constitution and

Republic Act 10121, commonly known as the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

Act of 2010. This is an ongoing project wherein more than a thousand families as of this

writing were already relocated from river fronting communities to the Bulacan Heights

Subdivisionlocated in barangay Catacte in Municipality of Bustos and barangay

Cacarong Matanda in the Municipality of Pandi.

 5757

Figure 18:Bulacan Heights – Catacte, Bustos

Photo Credits: K. Pineda

 5858

B. Climate Related Risks in Bulacan: Patterns in Plaridel and Pulilan

This section discusses the climate related risks in the study area. It identifies and

characterizes the climate-related hazards in the riverfront communities in the

municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan through the available hazard maps. The data

collection process for this chapter includes the gathering of records of past disasters

occurred in the area to establish probable occurrences and estimation of risks. It also

assessed the level of risks overtime with regards to the land-use change patterns in terms

of affected population and properties in the hazard prone areas.

Climate Profile of the Research Sites

The Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan as well as the Province of Bulacan

generally fall under Type I category based on the modified Corona’s Philippine Climate

Classification (1951-2003). Areas with this type of climate have distinct pronounce wet

and dry seasons. The months of June to November are considered rainy season period

with rainfalls ranging from 1,000 mm. to more than 5,000 mm.

Due to the lack of climate data at the municipal level, characteristics of focus area

climate will be adapted from the climate profile of the region and the province.

Figure19 shows the climate map of the of focus area relative to the province.
 5959

Figure 19:Bulacan Climate Map

Study Area

Source: PAGASA – DOST – Philippine Climate Corona Classification

Rainy season in the area coincides with the onset of the southwest monsoon,

which brings moisture laded cloud formation from the Southwest Asia. However,
 6060

because of the influence of topography and geomorphology, the eastern portion of the

province has a Type III climate with seasons not very pronounced, relatively dry from

November to April and wet for the rest of the year which is geographically far from

subject area.

Based from PAGASA report on Climate Change in the Philippines released in

2011, the country experiences averagetemperature increases overtime. The observed

mean temperature anomalies from 1951-2010 indicates an increase of 0.648 °C or an

average of 0.0108 °C per year-increase based on normal values. However the province’s

temperature is relatively constant at 27 degrees Centigrade. In 1995, highest temperature

recorded was 37.5 degrees centigrade in April and the lowest was 17.9 degrees centigrade

in the months of January and February. Table 3 shows the observed baseline historical

temperature for Central Luzon from 1971-2000.

Table 3: Observed Baseline Historical Temperature for Central Luzon 1971-2000

BASELINE OBSERVED
Region 3 (1971-2000)*
DJF MAM JJA SON
AURORA 24.5 27.1 27.9 26.7
BATAAN 26.4 28.7 27.6 27.3
BULACAN 25.6 27.9 27.1 26.7
NUEVA ECIJA 25.3 27.7 27.5 26.8
PAMPANGA 26.0 28.3 27.5 27.1
TARLAC 26.1 28.3 27.8 27.3
ZAMBALES 26.3 28.3 27.4 27.2
Source: Climate Change in the Philippines 2011 – PAGASA/ DOST

The report has divided the observed temperature and rainfall records for the

region based on the following seasonal variations:

 DJF – December, January, February or northeast monsoon locally known as

Amihan season

 MAM – March, April, May or summer season;

 6161

 JJA – June, July, August or southwest monsoon season, or “Habagat” season

 SON – September, October, November or transition from southwest to northeast

monsoon

PAGASA Rainfall Record

According to PAGASA report, the trends in the increase or decrease in extreme

daily rainfall are not statistically significant, although there have been changes in extreme

rain events in certain areas in the Philippines. For instance, intensity of extreme daily

rainfall is already being experienced in most parts of the country, but not statistically

significant. Likewise, the frequency has exhibited an increasing trend, but also not

statistically significant.

Table4 shows the observed historical rainfall record for Central Luzon from the

period of 1971 to 2000.

Table 4: Observed Rainfall Record for Central Luzon 1971-2000

BASELINE OBSERVED (mm)
Region 3 (1971-2000)
DJF MAM JJA SON
AURORA 615.7 546.4 768.7 1151.1
BATAAN 71.7 368.7 1326.2 872.6
BULACAN 212.4 288.9 1041.4 842.1
NUEVA ECIJA 155.2 316.5 995.0 745.0
PAMPANGA 120.8 320.6 1030.4 785.2
TARLAC 43.4 265.4 1193.5 644.3
ZAMBALES 40.9 368.0 1793.9 872.0
Source: Climate Change in the Philippines 2011 – PAGASA/ DOST

Annual Frequency of Typhoons

Based from the PAGASA report, an average of 20 tropical cyclones were formed

or passed within the so-called Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) per year. The

trend shows a high variability over the decades but there is no indication of increase in

the frequency. However, there is a very slight increase in the number of tropical cyclones
 6262

with maximum sustained winds of greater than 150kph and above (typhoon category)

being exhibited during El Niño years (see Figure 20).

Figure 20:Number of Extreme Typhoons in the Philippines 1971-2010

Source: Climate Change in the Philippines – PAGASA (No. of Extreme Typhoons 150kph and above)

Table 5 shows the historical record for numbers of tropical cyclones which

crossed the province 50 kilometers from boundaries for Central Luzon from the period of

1948-2009.

Table 5:Number of Tropical Cyclones crossed Bulacan 1948-2009

REGION 3 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Total TD TS TY STY
AURORA 1 0 0 1 7 16 24 11 17 29 23 4 133 30 42 60 1
BATAAN 0 0 0 1 3 6 10 4 11 19 8 2 64 14 20 30
BULACAN 0 0 0 0 4 8 9 4 11 23 16 2 77 17 23 37
NUEVA ECIJA 0 0 0 1 6 11 16 8 14 23 19 1 99 23 29 46 1
PAMPANGA 0 0 0 0 2 7 8 3 11 18 12 2 63 14 17 32
TARLAC 0 0 0 0 4 8 14 7 13 17 15 1 79 19 23 36
ZAMBALES 0 0 0 1 6 8 13 7 15 24 13 2 89 17 26 45 1
Source: Climate Change in the Philippines 2011 – PAGASA/ DOST (Tropical Cyclones 50 kilometers from boundaries)

The table also provides a summary of total number of TD (Tropical Depression),

TS (Tropical Storm), TY (Typhoon with sustained winds of 150kph-) and STY (Super

Typhoon) for the same period.

Climate Change Projection

 6363

The PAGASA report on projections on seasonal temperature increase and rainfall

change uses the medium range scenario which is also the basis of projection for the

province of Bulacan. All the projected changes are relative to the baseline (1971-2000)

climate.

Year 2020 Temperature Projection

Climate change projection in the region was determined by PAGASA in its report

on Climate Change in the Philippines. Table 6 shows the projected seasonal mean

temperature (in °C) in 2020 under medium-range emission scenarios.

Table 6:Year 2020 Projected Seasonal Mean Temperature

Projected temperature increase
BASELINE OBSERVED Projected Mean Temperature
(in °C) under Medium-Range
Region 3 (1971-2000)* 2020
Emission Scenarios*
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
AURORA 24.5 27.1 27.9 26.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 25.4 28 28.9 27.7
BATAAN 26.4 28.7 27.6 27.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 27.4 29.8 28.4 28.3
BULACAN 25.6 27.9 27.1 26.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 26.5 29 28 27.7
NUEVA ECIJA 25.3 27.7 27.5 26.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 26.2 28.8 28.4 27.8
PAMPANGA 26.0 28.3 27.5 27.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 27 29.4 28.4 28.1
TARLAC 26.1 28.3 27.8 27.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 27.2 29.4 28.8 28.4
ZAMBALES 26.3 28.3 27.4 27.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 27.3 29.4 28.3 28.2
Source: Climate Change in the Philippines 2011 – PAGASA/ DOST (Projections under medium-range emission scenarios)

Based on the observed baseline data by PAGASA in 1971-2000, the Province of

Bulacan had an increase in the mean temperature from 25.6°C during December, January,

February (DJF) season to the highest recorded temperature of 27.9°C in March, April,

May (MAM) season. The mean temperature in the province of Bulacan is projected to

increase by 0.9°C to 1.1 °C in 2020.

Year 2020 Rainfall Change Projection

Table 7 shows the projected rainfall (in mm)in 2020 under medium-range

emission scenarios.
 6464

Table 7:Year 2020 Projected Seasonal Rainfall Volume Change

Projected Rainfall Change (in %)
BASELINE OBSERVED (mm) Projected Seasonal Rainfall
under Medium-Range Emission
Region 3 (1971-2000) 2020
Scenarios
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
AURORA 615.7 546.4 768.7 1151.1 -0.3 -17.1 6.7 5.8 613.9 453.0 820.2 1217.9
BATAAN 71.7 368.7 1326.2 872.6 2.7 -5.2 9.4 -0.4 73.6 349.5 1450.9 869.1
BULACAN 212.4 288.9 1041.4 842.1 4.2 -23.0 12.8 -2.9 221.3 222.5 1174.7 817.7
NUEVA ECIJA 155.2 316.5 995.0 745.0 7.5 -13.8 10.1 1.6 166.8 272.8 1095.5 756.9
PAMPANGA 120.8 320.6 1030.4 785.2 16.3 -18.8 4.4 -5.1 140.5 260.3 1075.7 745.2
TARLAC 43.4 265.4 1193.5 644.3 26.0 -13.7 -1.6 -9.6 54.7 229.0 1174.4 582.4
ZAMBALES 40.9 368.0 1793.9 872.0 34.2 -4.5 13.3 -1.6 54.9 351.4 2032.5 858.0
Source: Climate Change in the Philippines 2011 – PAGASA/ DOST(Projections under medium-range emission scenarios)

The seasonal rainfall in Bulacan is projected to increase by 4.2 percent in 2020

during the northeast monsoon (DJF) season. Larger rainfall increase at 12.8 percent is

expected during the southwest monsoon season (JJA).

Year 2050 Temperature Projection

Table shows projected seasonal mean temperature (in °C) in 2050 under medium-

range emission scenarios

Table 8:Year 2050 Projected Seasonal Mean Temperature

Projected temperature increase
BASELINE OBSERVED Projected Mean Temperature
(in °C) under Medium-Range
Region 3 (1971-2000) 2050
Emission Scenarios
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
AURORA 24.5 27.1 27.9 26.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 26.4 29.1 29.9 28.7
BATAAN 26.4 28.7 27.6 27.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.9 28.4 30.8 29.3 29.2
BULACAN 25.6 27.9 27.1 26.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 27.5 30 28.8 28.6
NUEVA ECIJA 25.3 27.7 27.5 26.8 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 27.3 29.8 29.3 28.8
PAMPANGA 26 28.3 27.5 27.1 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.8 28.1 30.5 29.3 29.1
TARLAC 26.1 28.3 27.8 27.3 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.9 28.3 30.5 29.7 29.4
ZAMBALES 26.3 28.3 27.4 27.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.9 28.4 30.4 29.1 29.1
Source: Climate Change in the Philippines 2011 – PAGASA/ DOST(Projections under medium-range emission scenarios)

The projection shows that seasonal temperature will rise in 2050 with 1.7°C to

1.9°C increase.Table X shows the projected seasonal mean temperature (in °C) in 2020

and 2050 under medium-range emission scenarios based on 1971-2000 normal values.

Table 9:Comparative Projected Seasonal Mean Temperature2020/2050

BASELINE OBSERVED Projected Mean Temperature Projected Mean Temperature
Region 3 (1971-2000) 2020 2050
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
 6565

AURORA 24.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 25.4 28 28.9 27.7 26.4 29.1 29.9 28.7
BATAAN 26.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 27.4 29.8 28.4 28.3 28.4 30.8 29.3 29.2
BULACAN 25.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 26.5 29 28 27.7 27.5 30 28.8 28.6
NUEVA ECIJA 25.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 26.2 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.3 29.8 29.3 28.8
PAMPANGA 26.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 27 29.4 28.4 28.1 28.1 30.5 29.3 29.1
TARLAC 26.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 27.2 29.4 28.8 28.4 28.3 30.5 29.7 29.4
ZAMBALES 26.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 27.3 29.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 30.4 29.1 29.1
Source: Climate Change in the Philippines 2011 – PAGASA/ DOST(Projections under medium-range emission scenarios)

The projection shows that there will be around 1°C increase in temperature from

2020 to 2050.

Year 2050 Rainfall Change Projection

The following table (see Table 10) shows the projected seasonal rainfall (in mm)

in 2050 under medium-range emission scenarios:

Table 10:Year 2050Projected Seasonal Rainfall Volume Change

BASELINE OBSERVED (mm) Projected Rainfall Change (in %) under Projected Seasonal Rainfall
Region 3 (1971-2000) Medium-Range Emission Scenarios 2050
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
AURORA 615.7 546.4 768.7 1151.1 8.7 -29.2 7.4 -5.7 669.27 386.85 825.58 1085.49
BATAAN 71.7 368.7 1326.2 872.6 -8.2 -8.1 29.1 1.5 65.82 338.84 1712.12 885.69
BULACAN 212.4 288.9 1041.4 842.1 -13.2 -36.4 23.6 -3.3 184.36 183.74 1287.17 814.31
NUEVA ECIJA 155.2 316.5 995.0 745.0 -7.4 -25.7 22.7 -2.4 143.72 235.16 1220.87 727.12
PAMPANGA 120.8 320.6 1030.4 785.2 -15.4 -26.4 13.9 -7.2 102.20 235.96 1173.63 728.67
TARLAC 43.4 265.4 1193.5 644.3 -6.7 -18.2 8.8 -5.5 40.49 217.10 1298.53 608.86
ZAMBALES 40.9 368.0 1793.9 872.0 -2.2 -21.6 31.4 5.6 40.00 288.51 2357.18 920.83
Source: Climate Change in the Philippines 2011 – PAGASA/ DOST (Projections under medium-range emission scenarios)

In 2050, the province is projected to experience decrease in rainfall except during

the southwest monsoon season (JJA) when an abrupt 23.6 percent increase of rainfall is

expected.

The following table (see Table 11) shows the projected seasonal rainfall (in mm)

in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenarios based on 1971-2000 normal

values.

Table 11:Comparative Projected Seasonal Rainfall Volume Change 2020/2050

BASELINE OBSERVED (mm) Projected Seasonal Rainfall Projected Seasonal Rainfall
Region 3 (1971-2000) 2020 2050
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
AURORA 615.7 546.4 768.7 1151.1 613.9 453.0 820.2 1217.9 669.27 386.85 825.58 1085.49
BATAAN 71.7 368.7 1326.2 872.6 73.6 349.5 1450.9 869.1 65.82 338.84 1712.12 885.69
BULACAN 212.4 288.9 1041.4 842.1 221.3 222.5 1174.7 817.7 184.36 183.74 1287.17 814.31
 6666

NUEVA ECIJA 155.2 316.5 995.0 745.0 166.8 272.8 1095.5 756.9 143.72 235.16 1220.87 727.12
PAMPANGA 120.8 320.6 1030.4 785.2 140.5 260.3 1075.7 745.2 102.20 235.96 1173.63 728.67
TARLAC 43.4 265.4 1193.5 644.3 54.7 229.0 1174.4 582.4 40.49 217.10 1298.53 608.86
ZAMBALES 40.9 368.0 1793.9 872.0 54.9 351.4 2032.5 858.0 40.00 288.51 2357.18 920.83
Source: Climate Change in the Philippines 2011 – PAGASA/ DOST (Projections under medium-range emission scenarios)

The projected datasimply suggests that the dry seasons will become drier and

there will be increasing rains during rainy seasons.

Climate-Change Related Hazards

As climate change worsens, the hazards and risks accompanying need to be fully

understood. This section will not discuss how these hazards and risks came to be nor

enumerate their historical progress and occurrences. This study will only present the

gathered facts on how it may affect and threaten our lives directly.. PAGASA has stated

in its Climate Change in the Philippines reportthat given the projected changes in

precipitation, temperature, intensity of tropical cyclones and frequency of extreme

weather events, considerable efforts would be required to prepare the Philippines in

dealing with the impacts of climate change. Adaptation will be an integral part of our

response to the threats of climate change.

These climate change variables enhance the events posing real threats of damages

and its effects on human species and other life forms. Table12below summarizesthe type

of threats that these variables may exacerbate.

Table 12:Climate Change Enhanced Threats

Climate change variable Threats Enhanced
Storms and typhoons
Heat waves – three(3) consecutive days with increase of 1°C or more from the
Temperature increase observed seasonal mean temperature.
Drought – three(3) consecutive months with rainfall record less than the observed
seasonal rainfall volume.
Rainfall Changes Storms/typhoons, floods and landslides
Sea level rise Floods and storm surge
Sea surface temperature increase Typhoons, storm surge and massive algal blooms
 6767

El Nino Drought, heat waves, and wildfires

La Nina Floods, storms and strong waves
Source: Climate Change in the Philippines 2011 – PAGASA/ DOST/ Cabrido-UP- SURP

These threats are generally expressed as hazards. According to the IPCC (2007),

climate changes trigger these natural hazards and that these hazards are aggravated by

climate change in terms of effects, intensity, frequency and the timing of which become

erratic and less predictable.

Since climate change primary deals with changes in atmospheric properties and

activities which results to changes in precipitation and frequency of extreme weather

conditions, these hazards are locally termed as hydro-meteorologic hazards based from

the Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan described from its Disaster

Risk Assessment (DRA-CCVA) Report of the Provincial Government of Bulacan as

guided by the Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in Sub-National Development

Land Use Planning Guidelines released by National Economic Development Authority

(NEDA) in 2008. The following are the identified hydro-meteorologic hazards which

have direct relation to climate change based on the DRA-CCVA report.

 Flooding - defined as temporary covering of land by water outside its normal

confines. There are two types of flooding that can be distinguished, the

coastal flooding and river flooding. Coastal flooding or sea-borne flood is

caused by storm surges and discussed as the storm surge hazard. River

flooding is usually caused by excessive run-off brought on by heavy rains or

storms that lead to overflowing of water systems such as rivers and streams.

 Rain-Induced Landslides - Rainfall-induced landslide refers to the usually

sudden downward movement of loosened materials (rocks and earth) due to

 6868

rain. This also includes displacements and flows which occur in

unconsolidated soil materials though highly localized, it can be particularly

hazardous due to its frequency of occurrence. Mudflows are flows of rock,

earth and other debris saturated with water which develop when water rapidly

accumulates in the ground such as during heavy rainfall, changing the earth

into a flowing river of mud. This can flow rapidly down the slopes or through

channels and can strike with little or no warning at avalanche speeds.

 Coastal/ Storm Surges - Storm surges are an abnormal rise in sea water level

caused by strong winds and low atmospheric pressure during typhoons. Water

level is controlled by wind, atmospheric pressure, existing astronomical tide,

waves, local coastal topography/bathymetry and storm’s proximity to the

coast.

 Strong winds and heavy rains at more frequent and more intense

characteristics

Disaster Risks Aalong the Angat River Sub-Basin of the Pampanga River Basin

The province of Bulacan is part of a bigger Pampanga River Basin which covers

the Central Luzon Plains. Based on historical accounts, this is also a flood plain area

where the known Candaba Swamp is located. The following map (see Figure 21) shows

the Pampanga River Basin area together with major dams and river basins in Luzon.
 6969

Figure 21:Pampanga River Basin Map

Source: PAGASA – DOST – Pampanga River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center

The province’s main tributary to Pampanga River is the Angat River where there

are three dams located which makes the province unique within the country. It is in this

area where the Angat Dam, the Ipo Dam and Bustos Dam can be found for the purposes

of hydro-electric power plant, domestic water use for Metro Manila and irrigation water

respectively. The map below (see Figure 22) is the river network of the province.
 7070

Figure 22:Bulacan River Network Map

Source: Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan – Province of Bulacan

The river network map above shows the major river systems and its tributaries

that traverse the province of Bulacan. The Angat River is the longest and the largest river

system which originates from the Angat watershed located at the Sierra Madre mountain

ranges. This watershed is also the main source of river waters that is flowing through

other river channels in Bulacan. The following table (see Table 13) shows the list of

major river systems in the province.

Table 13: River Systems in Bulacan

Estimated volume Length Width Depth Area
Name
(cubic meter) (KM) (M) (M) (Km2)

1 Angat River (to Manila Bay) 8,600,000 86 +/-20 +/-5 1.72

2 Santa Maria River (to Meycauayan

River) 3,100,000 31 +/-20 +/-5 0.62
 7171

Estimated volume Length Width Depth Area

Name
(cubic meter) (KM) (M) (M) (Km2)

3 San Isidro River, Paombong 3,000,000 30 +/-20 +/-5 0.6

4 Santol River (to Balagtas River) 2,600,000 26 +/-20 +/-5 0.52
5 Maasin River (to Pampanga River) 1,560,000 78 +/-10 +/-2 0.78
6 Meycauayan River 1,300,000 13 +/-20 +/-5 0.26
7 Gonlong River, San Ildefonso 1,200,000 30 +/-20 +/-2 0.6

8 Biak naBato River (to San Miguel

River) 1,080,000 18 +/-20 +/-3 0.36
9 Halaan River, Calumpit 800,000 8 +/-20 +/-5 0.16
Bulacan River (to Meycauayan
10
River) 800,000 8 +/-20 +/-5 0.16
11 San Miguel River 700,000 35 +/-10 +/-2 0.35
12 Masukod River 600,000 10 +/-20 +/-3 0.2
13 Marilao River (to Saluysoy) 585,000 13 +/-15 +/-3 0.195
14 Bayabas River, DRT 500,000 25 +/-10 +/-2 0.25
15 Sto. Niño River 480,000 8 +/-20 +/-3 0.16
16 Abulalas River, Hagonoy 400,000 4 +/-20 +/-5 0.08
17 Salapungan River, DRT 380,000 19 +/-10 +/-2 0.19
18 Madlum River, San Miguel 360,000 18 +/-10 +/-2 0.18
19 Mailan River 300,000 5 +/-20 +/-3 0.1
20 Bagbag River 240,000 4 +/-20 +/-3 0.08
21 Sapruth River 240,000 4 +/-20 +/-3 0.08
22 Caypombo River, Santa Maria 200,000 10 +/-10 +/-2 0.1
23 Binakod River 40,000 2 +/-10 +/-2 0.02
TOTAL 7.765
Source: NAMRIA Topographic Base Map (data given by Bulacan ENRO)

Both river flooding and coastal flooding are experienced in the Province of

Bulacan. Most of the municipalities in the First District and one from the Fourth District

suffer from coastal flooding. Specifically, the coastal barangays from the municipalities

of Obando, Bulakan, Hagonoy, Paombong and Malolos City are experiencing floods

caused by rising tides from Manila Bay. Heavy rains caused by typhoons and monsoon

rains result to river flooding, which is common among most of the municipalities

(including non-coastal ones) basically because of the existence of 23 river systems in the

province. These rivers which overflow often caused flooding in non-coastal areas.
 7272

The Province of Bulacan is prone to landslides brought by heavy rains specifically

in the hilly parts of Norzagaray, Doña Remedios Trinidad. It is likewise prone to storm

surges which are highly probable during typhoon seasons and thunderstorms. This makes

the coastal areas of Bulacan susceptible to storm surges with other contributing factors

such as astronomical tidal conditions and general topography of low lands. Included

among those areas suffering from severely heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds that is

causing storm surges are the coastal municipalities of Hagonoy, Paombong, Bulakan,

Obando and Malolos.

The DRA-CCVA report characterized each of these hazards by its susceptibility

levels to specific areas as presented from the hazard maps and its historical occurrences.

Though there were other hazards identified as threat in the Province of Bulacan such as

the geologic hazards, it is not considered in this research because of its nature which is

not directly in relation to climate change.

The next section discusses the susceptibility of the study areas to the identified

climate related hazards described above. Since the characterization of those hazards are

based on the provincial level perspective, this research goes into detail to describe each

of these hazards in the focus subject area on the exposure riverfront communities of the

municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan.

Susceptibility to Climate-Change Related Hazards of the Study Area

This study utilizes two possible sources of information to determine which of the

identified climate related hazards are posing threats to the barangays in the Municipalities

of Plaridel and Pulilan directly fronting Angat River. The first source is the hazard maps,

second is the site validation with corresponding field interview.

 7373

The hazard maps have been referenced from the DRA-CCVA Report which has

been sourced from various government agencies mandated to prepare the corresponding

hazards maps. The flooding and the rainfall-induced landslides hazard maps came from

the Mines and Geo-sciences Bureau (MGB) of the DENR. The storm surge hazard map

is generated from NEDA based on the advised by PAGASA on prone areas along coastal

lines.

Based on the records from MGB, the following Figure 23is the flooding hazard

map in the Province of Bulacan, indicating the research sites for this study.
 7474

Figure 23:Bulacan Flooding Hazard Map

Study Area

Source: Mines and Geo-sciences Bureau DENR/ DRA-CCVA Report Provincial Government of Bulacan

The map above indicates that barangays fronting the Angat River in the

Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan are prone to two levels of flooding susceptibility.

There are areas in the study that are highly susceptible to flood wherein flood waters are
 7575

characterized to be more than one (1) meter and similarly prone to flash floods.

According to the map, these areas are usually flooded for several hours during heavy

rains which include areas along riverbanks. Like, there are also certain areas in the study

that are within the low to moderate flood susceptibility. These areas are usually

inundated during prolonged and extensive heavy rainfall or extreme weather conditions

characterized by flood waters with less than one (1) meter in height.

Based on the DRA-CCVA report as indicated from the flooding map, the

following table is the coverage of the flood prone areas for the municipalities of Plaridel

and Pulilan.

Table 14: Flooding Susceptibility Levels per Municipality

Flooding Susceptibility Levels

High Total Land Area

Low to Moderate
Areas with greater than 1m flood
height. These areas are usually (An indicative estimate
Municipality/ City Areas with less than 1 meter flood
flooded for several hours during of land area affected in
height. These are usually inundated
heavy rains; include landforms of hectares)
during prolonged and extensive
topographic lows such as active river
heavy rainfall or extreme weather
channels, abandoned river channels
condition.
and areas along river banks; also
prone to flashfloods.
Rueda, Lagundi, Dampol, Sto. Nino, San Jose, Lumang Bayan, 3,682
Lalangan, Poblacion, Agnaya, BagongSilang, Sta. Ines, Sipat
Plaridel Banga I-II, Tabang, BulihamBintog, 1,198 has.
Parulan, Culianin
2,284 has.
Balatong A, Taal, Sto. Cristo, Cutcut All other remaining Barangays 3,880
Pulilan
1,265 has. 2,615 has.
Source: DRA-CCVA Report – Provincial Government of Bulacan

Zooming in to the study area, the following figure is the flooding map for the

riverfront communities in the Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan.

 7676

Figure 24:Flooding Hazard Map - Riverfront Barangays

Source: Mines and Geo-sciences Bureau DENR/ DRA-CCVA Report Provincial Government of Bulacan

There is however one thing to take into account in this hazard map. The source of

this is the flooding map from MGB-DENR which is available from its website and

distributed on a scale of 1:50,000. Since the study area covers roughly 200-meter buffer

strips on each banks of the Angat River of 11 barangays in each of the municipality, the

flooding map may not be delineated in detail. As the flooding map suggests that the

entire study area is susceptible, there may be a certain portions that are flood free. This is

the subject of further research that may be conducted through site validation and field

interviews.

As of this writing, this map is considered to be the only official and only available

flooding map in the Province. Site validation is reasonably important to demonstrate

whether the maps being generated by various National Government Agencies are far
 7777

more or less accurate. This research is also an initiation on the proposed project of the

PPDO and PDRRMO for Community-Based Hazard Mapping. In this project, the

Barangays themselves down to the communities will develop their own hazard maps

based on the known area susceptibility, historical accounts and probability of occurrence.

From the gathered information on field research and interviews with municipal

officers, the flooding map being used as reference in the municipalities of Plaridel and

Pulilan is the same map from MGB-DENR. Taking their views on the proposed

Community-Based Flood Mapping project, it is expressed that extensive topographic

survey may be required which may be quite exhausting. Detailed delineation of flood

prone areas can also be difficult in terms of sourcing for the budgetary requirements.

Likewise, they are also doubtful for the quality of information that will be collected from

the key informants from the barangays as most of them will like turn to municipalities for

referencing and validating their claims.

To check the rationality of the statements of the municipal officers, the proposed

project was likewise discussed with the key informants at the barangays. They were

initially being presented with the official flood maps from MGB-DENR for their

barangay. They can confirm that the highly susceptible areas to flooding are true to some

extents but cannot verify the exact coverage. They also argue why susceptibility is

spread all throughout their territorial jurisdictions which mean that every part of the

barangay can be flooded. They attest that there are an area that as far as they remember

has never been flooded which signifies the need for community-based flood map as

separately distinctive project. This was also the main reason that this project had

proceeded to use the official flood maps from MGB-DENR as reference for the hazard.
 7878

Moving forward to the next climate related hazards, the following figure is the

rainfall-induced landslide hazard map for the Province of Bulacan and indicated herein is

the focus subject area of this study.

Figure 25:Bulacan Rain-induced Landslide Hazard Map

Study Area

Source: Mines and Geo-sciences Bureau DENR/ DRA-CCVA Report Provincial Government of Bulacan

As the hazard map above suggest, the study area is not prone to rain-induced

landslides as it is part of the vast plains of Central Luzon. Those that are susceptible are

the hilly areas in the eastern part of the province where there lies the mountain ranges of

Sierra Madre.

The following figure is the storm surge hazard map for the Province of Bulacan

and indicated herein is the focus subject area of this study.

 7979

Figure 26:Bulacan Storm Surge Hazard Map

Study Area

Source: DRA-CCVA Report - Provincial Government of Bulacan

As the hazard map above suggests, the study area is not prone to storm surge

hazards because it is not located in the coastal area of the province. The study area is

roughly about 15 kilometers from the shorelines of Manila Bay.

Other climate related hazards such as prolonged drought, heat wave and sea level

rise is equally worth considering in this assessment. However as of this writing, based on

the result of both this research and the DRA-CCVA report, there are no currently

available maps for these types of hazards. Once available, the risk assessment process

would be comparatively similar to what this study has undergone.

In summary, the study area is only prone to flooding at various levels of

susceptibility which are verified through site validation. Field interviews and site visits
 8080

are conducted to verify the records and extents of flooding if there is any. Other climate

change threats such as strong winds, torrential rains and prolonged drought are broad in

nature based on the historical events. Aside from the absence of extent maps, PAGASA

stated in its Climate Change report that Philippines is in direct pressure from these

hazards. Therefore it is assumed that every element is exposed in these borderless

dangers which may only vary in risks degree based from each vulnerability levels.

Records of Climate Related Disasters in the study area

Data on climate related disasters were taken from the Provincial Disaster Risk

Reduction and Management Office. Table15 below shows the simplified matrix on

historical records of flooding that caused considerable damage to the province including

the municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan.

Table 15: Flooding Historical Occurrences

Description Population/ Areas Affected Impacts

Tropical Storm Falcon 109,757 families affected in 21 P136M damages on agriculture and fisheries in
June 19-21, 2011 municipalities. 6,803 families evacuated. an area of 2,673 hectares.
P61.5M damages on roads and infrastructures.
National Irrigation Administration reported
P0.5M of damages.

Typhoon Juan Flooding on coastal and low lying areas P 362M estimated damages on agriculture
October 17-18, 2010 of Bulacan - 1,391 families affected P 8.5M damages on roads

Typhoon Pepeng Heavy rains on northern Luzon resulting P 16.6 M damages on 693 hectares of fisheries
October 4-6, 2009 to back-flooding due to release of P51.6M damages on agriculture in an estimated
Pantabangan Dam in province of Nueva riceland area of 3,226 hectares
Ecija affecting Calumpit, Hagonoy, Ipo dam in Norzagary reached its spilling level.
Pulilan and western barangays of San
Ildefonso and San Miguel near the
Province of Pampanga
 8181

25 provinces including Bulacan were 37 people reportedly died and 8 more missing.
Typhoon Ondoy (Ketsana) placed under state of calamity. P 634.8M damages on infrastructures.
September 26-27, 2009 P90.5M damages on 4,079 hectares of fisheries.
P594.5M damages of crops and livestock with
PAGASA recorded 455mm 120,045 families (534,118 people) total land area affected of 26,736 hectares
rainfall, the highest ever recorded affected. P121M damages on roads.
in Metro Manila and belongs to the 13,015 families (65,799 people) Manila-North Road in Marilao area was not
top 20 most rainiest typhoons to evacuated. passable to all types of vehicles.
strike the Philippines 2,855 houses were damaged on most part North Luzon Expressway affected by flood
of the province. waters became passable to all vehicles but slow
566 people stranded in Marilao and moving as of 05:00H Sep. 27
Bocaue area as of 22:30H Sep. 26 Angat dam and IPO dam reached spilling level.
Spilling operation on Angat Dam commenced at
The province experienced an unusually 13:00H Sep 26 with opening of 1.0meter every
high rainfall amount leading to the 30 minutes until total outflow reached 500 cubic
widespread and massive flooding in the meter per second (CMS) to maintain the stability
province and overflowing of the Angat of the dam.
dam and opening of the floodgates at
about 10:45AM in the morning.

Typhoon Frank 2 cities and 12 municipalities (40,437 2 died

June 22, 2008 families or 189,666 people) were affected 1 house was totally destroyed and 2 were
1,089 families or 3,403 people evacuated partially damaged
PhP511,442,000 agricultural damage and
PhP2,000,000 infrastructure damage
(OCD Flooding Damage Data)
Typhoon Milenyo 1 city and 2 municipalities 1 died
September 28, 2006 480 families or 2,301 persons evacuated 50 houses were totally destroyed and 376 houses
were partially damaged
PhP7,721,000 agricultural damage
(OCD Flooding Damage Data)
Typhoon Marce 1 city and 12 municipalities 6 died
August 2004 20,373 families or 99,821 persons were PhP25,000,000 livestock damages
affected PhP3,071,000 fisheries damages
5,079 families or 24,916 people evacuated PhP28,071,000 agricultural damages
PhP22,100,000 Infrastructure damages
(OCD Flooding Damage Data)
Typhoon Egay 1 city and 20 municipalities 36 houses were totally destroyed and 35 houses
August 15-21, 2007 84,550 families or 399,845 persons were were partially damaged
affected (OCD Flooding Damage Data)
205 families or 1,105 persons evacuated
Typhoon Mina and Angat Dam 5 municipalities No recorded impact
Water Release 2,562 families or 12,572 persons were (OCD Flooding Damage Data)
November 24-27, 2007 affected
2,562 families and 12,572 evacuated
Source: Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office – Bulacan/ PAGASA/ NDCC

The list above is from the collected records at the provincial level which has to be

validated at the municipal level based on the records of the MDRRMO on the two subject

municipalities.

According to the in-charge Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

officer from municipality of Plaridel and Pulilan, there is currently no system to keep

records of historical disasters in their locality. This was attributed to the previous

administrations that does not employed or initiated systematic archives to document the
 8282

historical events and even not exerted effort to initiate development of record keeping

scheme. But they can give accounts on 1978 Luzon great flood.

As some of the informants remembered, the great flood disaster of 1978 was

caused by the rapid water release from Angat Dam due to heavy rains without appropriate

warnings and coordination. They described the flood heights at its highest level ever

whereas others attested that water overflowed from the old Plaridel-Pulilan Bridge where

swine can be picked from the streams and were slaughtered above the bridge itself. This

is the empirical evidence that flooding from overflow of Angat River poses a great threat

to the communities along the main river channel and other adjacent low lying zones.

As the land use patterns and climate change with its related hazards has been

established, the next section presents how this study assessed the level of risks for the

population and properties in the research sites.

 8383

C. How Land Use Patterns Exacerbate Climate Related Risks and Disasters in
Plaridel and Pulilan

This section assessed how land use changes aggravate the disaster brought about

by climate change. The procedures on disaster risk assessment (DRA) recommended by

the DRA mainstreaming guidelines from the National and Provincial Governments are

employed in this study to determine the level of risksto population and assets exposed to

identified hazards. This was done initially by hazard characterization followed by

exposure analysis and vulnerability assessment.

Disaster Risks Assessment Procedures

As it is established that the study area is prone to climate-related hazards

specifically flooding, this section will assess the level of risksin these areas expressed in

terms of affected population and property damage. This procedure will require the

flooding hazard map and the land use maps as its primary input while also referring to the

DRA-CCVA Report and Mainstreaming DRR/CCA into Local Development Planning

guidelines for the process of estimating risks.

According to Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in Sub-National

Development Land Use Planning Guidelines released by National Economic

Development Authority (NEDA) in 2008, risks as computed mathematically with the aid

of GIS technology based on the factors of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. While

there are no concrete procedures to express the vulnerability factors mathematically, as

these are qualitative in nature and may only be validated contextually or on a case-to-case

basis, it is assumed that the factor of vulnerability will be equal within each

municipalities as it is done with the DRA-CCVA Report. Therefore the risk assessment
 8484

for this study will be a first level computation based on the known hazard and exposure

only.

The hazard factor will be derived from the flooding hazard map and the exposure

factor based on the land use maps as well as the available population data.

Flooding Hazard Characterization

To start with, Table16 is the general reference for land area and flood prone area

per subject barangays of municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan. The total flood prone

area is measures based on the GIS function on geometry calculation per specific

susceptibility level. Note that all are measurements are in terms of hectares.

Table 16: Research Site Susceptibility to Flooding

Area Within Low-to-
Area Within High
Barangay Land Area Barangay Land Area Moderate
BARANGAY Susceptibility to
(ha.-DENR-LMB) (ha. GIS-Derived) Susceptibility to
Flooding
Flooding
MUNICIPALITY OF PLARIDEL
1. Banga I 124.00 97.80 8.69 89.11
2. Banga II 160.00 69.18 18.48 50.70
3. Bintog 201.00 183.45 30.43 147.82
4. Culianin 306.00 253.26 59.56 193.70
5. Dampol 76.00 16.83 6.67 10.16
6. Lumang Bayan 166.00 87.44 37.39 50.05
7. Parulan 418.00 343.29 74.11 269.11
8. Poblacion 49.00 30.19 6.19 25.95
9. Rueda 77.00 75.78 10.75 65.03
10. San Jose 376.00 305.45 108.08 196.96
11. Sipat 398.00 190.94 72.24 118.63
MUNICIPALITY OF PULILAN
1. Cutcot 241.00 314.85 155.31 159.54
2. Dampol I 105.00 142.65 80.54 62.12
3. Dampol II-A 140.00 173.76 50.92 122.84
4. Dampol II-B 109.00 173.67 106.50 67.17
5. Longos 77.00 99.93 47.56 52.38
6. Lumbac 154.00 113.63 78.28 35.35
7. Paltao 305.00 212.74 143.89 68.86
8. Poblacion 232.00 221.77 100.67 121.10
9. Sto. Cristo 175.00 139.77 33.54 106.23
10. Taal 245.00 234.14 40.24 193.90
11. Tibag 183.00 59.58 20.00 39.58
Source: Barangay Land Area from LMB-DENR overlaid to Flood Hazard Map from MGB-DENR
 8585

There are variances on land area data from those that comes from DENR and

those derived from GIS geometry. Since the procedures of this study will deal mostly on

GIS procedures, the derived land data area based on GIS geometry will be considered.

Based on the susceptibility table above, the barangays of San Jose, Parulan and

Sipat are the top areas in Plaridel that are highly susceptible to flooding. While Cutcot,

Paltao, Dampol II-B and Poblacion are the barangays observed with large areas highly

susceptible to flooding in the Municipality of Pulilan.

Further classifying these areas with focus on 100 meters and 200 meters buffers

on each side of the river, the following land area will be used for risk assessment (see

Table 17).

Table 17: Land Area Exposure per River Buffer Distance

Within 0-100 Meter Buffer Strip Within 100-200 Meter Buffer Strip
Barangay
Land Area Total Area Within Low to Total Area Under Low to
BARANGAY Within High Within High
– (Has. GIS- Within 0-100 Moderate Within 100- Moderate
Susceptibility Susceptibility
Derived) Meter Buffer Susc. to 200 Meter Susc. to
to Flooding to Flooding
Strip Flooding Buffer Strip Flooding
MUNICIPALITY OF PLARIDEL
1. Banga I 97.80 3.53 3.36 0.17 5.05 0.23 4.82
2. Banga II 69.18 3.84 3.84 0.00 4.61 4.05 0.56
3. Bintog 183.45 13.05 7.48 5.57 12.37 3.15 9.22
4. Culianin 253.26 11.64 11.57 0.07 16.10 4.19 11.92
5. Dampol 16.83 5.19 4.03 1.16 6.29 2.61 3.68
6. Lumang Bayan 87.44 19.35 13.35 6.00 23.69 11.31 12.38
7. Parulan 343.29 25.90 18.77 7.13 20.12 2.38 17.74
8. Poblacion 30.19 6.98 6.17 0.81 8.81 0.02 8.79
9. Rueda 75.78 13.69 5.93 7.75 11.27 4.32 6.95
10. San Jose 305.45 0.02 0.02 0.00 1.91 0.29 1.62
11. Sipat 190.94 28.32 24.53 3.79 29.76 16.16 13.60
MUNICIPALITY OF PULILAN
1. Cutcot 314.85 1.68 1.68 0.00 6.48 5.60 0.89
2. Dampol I 142.65 13.21 13.19 0.03 14.83 10.40 4.44
3. Dampol II-A 173.76 6.80 1.68 5.12 8.00 0.00 8.00
4. Dampol II-B 173.67 7.65 3.18 4.47 8.58 0.00 8.58
5. Longos 99.93 23.25 21.38 1.87 22.69 16.88 5.80
6. Lumbac 113.63 6.00 2.60 3.40 5.99 0.00 5.99
7. Paltao 212.74 6.98 0.95 6.03 7.77 0.87 6.90
8. Poblacion 221.77 9.16 7.65 1.50 10.72 4.33 6.39
9. Sto. Cristo 139.77 14.71 10.70 4.02 18.60 7.82 10.78
10. Taal 234.14 10.74 9.57 1.17 16.11 8.06 8.05
11. Tibag 59.58 10.53 6.56 3.97 13.03 5.10 7.93
Source: Barangay Land Area from LMB-DENR overlaid to Flood Hazard Map from MGB-DENR
 8686

To initially describe the susceptibility levels at various strip distances, the

barangays of Sipat, Parulan and Lumang Bayan in Plaridel have the largest total land

areas highly susceptible to flooding within the 0-100 meter buffer strip, while still Sipat

and Lumang Bayan are highly susceptible to flooding within 100-200 meters. In the

Municipality of Pulilan, Barangays Longos, Sto. Cristo and Dampol-I have largest areas

highly susceptible to flooding within 0-100 meters from the river while the barangays of

Taal, Sto. Cristo, Longos and Dampol-I are highly susceptible to flooding within 100-

200 meter strip distances. These computed areas on varying level of susceptibility to

flooding at several strip distances from the river for each barangay will be one of the

bases for the estimation of exposure of elements of population and properties

Estimated Flood Return Period

Using the reference tables and annexes from the Manual for Mainstreaming

DRR/CCA in Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plans, Volume 2, the

DRA/CCVA Report of the PDPFP for the Province of Bulacan was able to compute for

the estimated return period of flooding hazard occurring in the province.

Reference Table, Rainfall trigger for flood

Frequent Likely Rare
90mm/day 360mm/day 480mm/day
Source: Manual for Mainstreaming DRR/CCA in Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plans. Volume 2, p. 5.

Based on the guidelines, occurrence of hazards is generally classified as (a.)

Frequent -where many events are frequent over a lifetime; (b.) Likely -wherea single

event is likely over a lifetime; and (c.) Rare - wherea single event is rare over a lifetime.

The general assumption is that frequent hazard events or occurrencesare of lower

intensity or magnitude and conversely for rare events.

 8787

The threshold rainfall trigger events given used in this procedure are for planning

purposes only. The figures (see Tables 18) are not intended to be used for forecasting or

flood warning determination. The indicative return period for flood is based on the most

probable rainfall intensity that will trigger the event. It is important to note that a 50-year

rainfall event doesnot necessarily equate to a 50-year flood. Based on the manual, flood

events will becharacterized or described based on rainfall (e.g., 25-year rainfall flood).

Table 18: Frequency Table for 1-day rainfall for 2020, bias-corrected (2006-2035)

Source: Manual for Mainstreaming DRR/CCA in Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plans. Volume 2, p. 14.
PAGASA Report – Climate Change in the Philippines 2011

Frequent Events

Since the frequency table for Bulacan indicates 160.5mm/day of rainfall as the

minimum for frequent flooding events, Bulacan then surpasses the 90mm/day rainfall

indicated by the reference table for rainfall trigger for flood. Thus, the return period for

frequent or major flooding events is estimated at a two-year period for Bulacan province.

Likely Events

Using the formula provided for the computation of the return period and the date

from the Frequency Table for 1-day rainfall for 2020, the return period for Likely

Flooding Events was computed as shown below.

 8888

392 .1  316 360  316


20  10 L  10
76 .1 44

10 L  10
76 .1L  10   10  44
76 .1L  440  761
1201
L
76 .1
 15 .78 yrs
Rare Events

Similarly, the return period for the rare flooding events is computed as shown:

506.5  440.6 480  440.6


50  30 R  30
65.9 39.4

20 R  30
65.9R  30  20  39.4
65.9 R  1977  788
1977  788
R
65.9
 41.96 yrs

To summarize, the following Table 19shows the calculated return periods for each

hazard event for flooding.

Table 19: Calculated Flood Return Period

Flooding Event Return Period (in. no of years)

Frequent 2
Likely 15.78
Rare 41.96

Risk Assessment on Population

Based on the DRA-CCVA Report as advised from the Mainstreaming Disaster

Risk Reduction in Sub-National Development Land Use Planning Guidelines released by

National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) in 2008, risk assessment to

 8989

population may be done using GIS procedures. Using these procedures will require one

of the following GIS datasets, aside from the population count and the actual hazard

maps:

 Barangay land area based on boundaries as generated by GIS to be able to

derive population density per barangay.

 Built-up areas to derived population density per barangay based on built-up

areas.

 Household level points with population database per household point.

Each of these datasets has its own pros and cons depending on the accuracy level

of assessment being required. The most commonly used for risk estimation is through

the use of the population density per barangay to be overlaid onto hazard maps. This is

assuming that the population is evenly distributed within the barangay boundaries, which

is usually not the reality.

Population density may be also derived with the availability of GIS dataset on

built up area which lessens the errors on assumptions of population being evenly

distributed within barangay confines. The accuracy of the output will depend on the

accuracy of the available dataset for built-up areas. As in the case of this study, the latest

built-up areas are sourced from NAMRIA Topographic Maps of 2007 which cover major

built environments. There are cases however when some of scattered household points

around the agricultural or open areas are not included in the topographic map as built-up.

The possible most accurate methodology for assessment so far may be done

through the use of household points which should contain population data for each point.

This is however also the most difficult to gather in terms of resources and other
 9090

constraints, not even considering the flexibility or variation of data changes that may be

gathered overtime. Further investigation shows as well that there are no available GIS

dataset for household points in the study area and correspondingly at the provincial level

that can be used for this assessment. This research had therefore use the population per

barangay and per built-up area as basis for assessing the risks of flooding hazard to

population.

Population Density Map

Based on the Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan (PDPFP),

barangay population density is basically identified into three categories such as high

density (more than 500 person per square kilometer), medium density (250-500) and low

density (less than 250). The population figures used in this map is the 2010 census which

is the official latest census of population and housing as of this writing.

 9191

Figure 27:Population Density Exposure Map

Study Area

Source: DRA-CCVA Report/ Provincial Planning and Development Office – Province of Bulacan

The barangays in the study area are highly dense community as shown in the

population density map above (see Figure 27) with more than 500 people per square

kilometers.

Identifying Potentially Exposed Population from Flooding

The processed flooding hazard map was overlaid on to the generated population

exposure map such as those based from barangay boundaries and built up areas through

GIS procedures. From the union of two maps, the potentially exposed population can

now be estimated. The population in the intersection areas of the two maps would

constitute the exposed population with the schema for estimation such as follows:
 9292

 For Highly Susceptible Area (HSA) - the population exposed to Highly

Susceptible Area (HSA) of the flooding hazard map in the barangay is the

exposed population for the barangay.

 For Low to Moderately Susceptible Area (LMSA), the population exposed to

Highly Susceptible (HSA) and Low to Moderately Susceptible Area (LMSA)

of the flooding hazard map in the barangay is the exposed population for the

barangay.

The following table shows the results of the overlay analysis for determining the

potentially exposed population from flooding on the riverfront barangays of the

Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan based on density per barangay land area

considering the 2010 census of population.

Table 20: 2010 Population Exposure to Flooding

Population
Barangay Barangay Within 0-100 Meter Buffer Strip Within 100-200 Meter Buffer
Density
Population Land Area
BARANGAY (based on Population Population Population Population
(2010 CPH- (ha. GIS-
GIS derived Exposure in Exposure in Exposure in Exposure in
NSO) derived)
area) HSA LMSA HSA LMSA
MUNICIPALITY OF PLARIDEL
1. Banga I 6,710 97.8 68.61 231 12 16 331
2. Banga II 8,775 69.18 126.84 487 0 514 71
3. Bintog 3,930 183.45 21.42 160 119 67 198
4. Culianin 4,177 253.26 16.49 191 1 69 197
5. Dampol 3,111 16.83 184.85 745 214 482 680
6. Lumang Bayan 4,370 87.44 49.98 667 300 565 619
7. Parulan 8,461 343.29 24.65 463 176 59 437
8. Poblacion 3,907 30.19 129.41 798 105 3 1138
9. Rueda 1,788 75.78 23.59 140 183 102 164
10. San Jose 4,197 305.45 13.74 0 0 4 22
11. Sipat 5,367 190.94 28.11 689 107 454 382
MUNICIPALITY OF PULILAN
1. Cutcot 4,844 314.85 15.39 26 0 86 14
2. Dampol I 5,602 142.65 39.27 518 1 408 174
3. Dampol II-A 3,001 173.76 17.27 29 88 0 138
4. Dampol II-B 3,958 173.67 22.79 72 102 0 196
5. Longos 5,105 99.93 51.09 1092 96 862 296
6. Lumbac 3,958 113.63 34.83 91 118 0 209
7. Paltao 5,705 212.74 26.82 25 162 23 185
 9393

8. Poblacion 11,858 221.77 53.47 409 80 232 342

9. Sto. Cristo 6,405 139.77 45.83 490 184 358 494
10. Taal 5,711 234.14 24.39 233 29 197 196
11. Tibag 2,845 59.58 47.75 313 190 244 379
Source: 2010 NSO CPH/ Barangay Land Area from LMB-DENR overlaid to Flood Hazard Map from MGB-DENR

The exposure calculated on the table above is based on the population density of

the barangay area exposed to certain susceptibility of flooding hazard. Population

density is expressed as number of persons per hectare which is derived from the 2010

Census of Population and Housing (CPH) of the National Statistics Office (NSO) divided

by the GIS-derived barangay land area. As mentioned earlier, the assumption here is that

the population is evenly distributed within the extents of the barangay which is usually

not the reality but still can provide a considerable degree of comprehensive results.

The barangays of Poblacion, Dampol, Sipat and Lumang Bayan in Plaridel have

the highest population exposure under Highly Susceptible Area (HSA) within 0-100

meter distance from the river. Lumang Bayan, Dampol and Sipat have the highest

exposure within 100-200 meters. In Pulilan, barangay Longos has the highest population

exposure under Highly Susceptible Area (HSA) within 0-100 and 100-200 meter buffer

distance, compared to barangays of Dampol I, Poblacion and Sto. Cristowith the next

highest HSA. This is mainly because of the combined areas of susceptibility and the

population density of the barangay.

Using the population from year 2000 CPH, the following table shows the

population exposure of the subject area per river buffer strip and level of susceptibility.

Table 21: 2000 Population Exposure to Flooding

Population
Barangay Barangay Within 0-100 Meter Buffer Strip Within 100-200 Meter Buffer
Density
Population Land Area
BARANGAY (based on Population Population Population Population
(2000 CPH- (ha. GIS-
GIS derived Exposure in Exposure in Exposure in Exposure in
NSO) derived)
area) HSA LMSA HSA LMSA
 9494

MUNICIPALITY OF PLARIDEL
1. Banga I 5,370 97.8 54.91 184 9 177 6
2. Banga II 7,696 69.18 111.25 427 0 586 0
3. Bintog 3,153 183.45 17.19 129 96 51 313
4. Culianin 3,524 253.26 13.91 161 1 308 0
5. Dampol 2,466 16.83 146.52 590 170 218 108
6. Lumang Bayan 4,129 87.44 47.22 630 283 1028 1601
7. Parulan 5,992 343.29 17.45 328 124 414 961
8. Poblacion 3,589 30.19 118.88 733 96 293 39
9. Rueda 1,527 75.78 20.15 119 156 251 392
10. San Jose 3,039 305.45 9.95 0 0 0 0
11. Sipat 1,773 190.94 9.29 228 35 307 122
MUNICIPALITY OF PULILAN
1. Cutcot 4,844 314.85 15.39 26 0 86 14
2. Dampol I 5,602 142.65 39.27 518 1 408 174
3. Dampol II-A 3,001 173.76 17.27 29 88 0 138
4. Dampol II-B 3,958 173.67 22.79 72 102 0 196
5. Longos 5,105 99.93 51.09 1092 96 862 296
6. Lumbac 3,958 113.63 34.83 91 118 0 209
7. Paltao 5,705 212.74 26.82 25 162 23 185
8. Poblacion 11,858 221.77 53.47 409 80 232 342
9. Sto. Cristo 6,405 139.77 45.83 490 184 358 494
10. Taal 5,711 234.14 24.39 233 29 197 196
11. Tibag 2,845 59.58 47.75 313 190 244 379
Source: 2000 NSO CPH/ Barangay Land Area from LMB-DENR overlaid to Flood Hazard Map from MGB-DENR

Comparing the table above from the result of the analysis for 2010 census, all of

the barangaysin both municipalities show an increase in population from year 2000 to

2010. This similarly resulted in the increase of population exposure to certain

susceptibility from flooding hazard. It is initially presumed here that the population

within an area susceptible to hazards isconsidered at risk and the higher the population in

those areas, the risks will correspondingly increase.

On the other hand, a likely more detailed overlay analysis of flooding hazard

exposure is done using the available built-up area GIS dataset. This is basically sourced

from NAMRIA Topographic Map of 2007 and validated on the 2011 Satellite Imagery of

Google Earth. The following table (see Table 22) shows the results of the overlay

analysis for determining the potentially exposed population from flooding on the
 9595

riverfront barangays of the Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan based on density per

built-up area.

Table 22: 2010 Population Exposure to Flooding based on Built-up Area

Population Within 0-100 Meter Buffer Strip Within 100-200 Meter Buffer Strip
Barangay Builtup
Density
Population Area
BARANGAY (based on Builtup Population Builtup Population Builtup Population Builtup Population
(2010 CPH- (ha. GIS-
builtup within Exposure Within Exposure in within Exposure in within Exposure in
NSO) derived)
area) HSA (ha) in HSA LMSA(ha) LMSA HSA(ha) HSA LMSA(ha) LMSA

MUNICIPALITY OF PLARIDEL
1. Banga I 6,710 66.15 101.44 2.203 223 0.073 7 0.140 14 2.527 256
2. Banga II 8,775 33.08 265.25 3.766 999 0.000 0 4.051 1075 0.563 149
3. Bintog 3,930 39.72 98.94 0.541 54 3.479 344 0.000 0 6.974 690
4. Culianin 4,177 31.58 132.28 3.243 429 0.000 0 2.567 340 7.872 1041
5. Dampol 3,111 14.67 212.02 2.690 570 1.162 246 1.795 381 3.681 780
6. Lumang Bayan 4,370 35.41 123.42 3.606 445 5.943 734 1.959 242 9.415 1162
7. Parulan 8,461 83.42 101.43 2.790 283 6.108 620 1.709 173 14.564 1477
8. Poblacion 3,907 31.67 123.37 6.132 757 0.280 35 0.017 2 8.593 1060
9. Rueda 1,788 28.54 62.65 5.058 317 7.461 467 3.747 235 6.748 423
10. San Jose 4,197 40.67 103.19 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.670 69
11. Sipat 5,367 61.16 87.75 10.680 937 3.786 332 7.847 689 8.874 779
MUNICIPALITY OF PULILAN
1. Cutcot 4,844 46.35 104.52 1.467 153 0.000 0 3.609 377 0.119 12
2. Dampol I 5,602 67.63 82.83 2.443 202 0.005 0 4.338 359 2.345 194
3. Dampol II-A 3,001 66.06 45.43 1.676 76 5.120 233 0.000 0 8.002 364
4. Dampol II-B 3,958 41.17 96.13 3.182 306 4.468 429 0.000 0 8.578 825
5. Longos 5,105 45.08 113.23 4.640 525 1.873 212 4.366 494 5.182 587
6. Lumbac 3,958 40.17 98.53 2.301 227 3.390 334 0.000 0 5.595 551
7. Paltao 5,705 37.71 151.28 0.952 144 6.029 912 0.870 132 6.897 1043
8. Poblacion 11,858 102.76 115.39 6.683 771 0.888 103 3.523 407 5.489 633
9. Sto. Cristo 6,405 64.57 99.19 5.753 571 4.015 398 4.143 411 10.033 995
10. Taal 5,711 52.00 109.83 0.157 17 0.193 21 0.238 26 2.181 240
11. Tibag 2,845 47.58 59.80 5.907 353 3.972 237 3.862 231 7.646 457
Source: 2010 NSO CPH/ Barangay Land Area from LMB-DENR overlaid to Flood Hazard Map from MGB-DENR

The barangays of Banga II, Sipat and Poblacion in Plaridel have the highest

population exposure under Highly Susceptible Area (HSA) within 0-100 meter distance

from the river. Barangays Banga II and Sipat has the highest exposure within 100-200

meters. In Pulilan, barangays Longos, Poblacion and Sto. Cristo have the highest

population exposure under Highly Susceptible Area (HSA) within 0-100 and 100-200

meter buffer distance.

 9696

Using the population from year 2000 CPH in the same way, the following

Table23 shows the population exposure of the subject area per river buffer strip and level

of susceptibility. The built-up area used is from the 2002 satellite image map which is

the nearest dataset for the census year.

Table 23: 2000 Population Exposure to Flooding based on Built-up Area

Population Within 0-100 Meter Buffer Strip Within 100-200 Meter Buffer Strip
Barangay BuiltupAr
Density
Population ea
BARANGAY (based on Builtup Population Builtup Population Builtup Population Builtup Population
(2000 CPH- (ha. GIS-
builtup within Exposure Within Exposure in within Exposure in within Exposure in
NSO) derived)
area) HSA (ha) in HSA LMSA(ha) LMSA HSA(ha) HSA LMSA(ha) LMSA

MUNICIPALITY OF PLARIDEL
1. Banga I 5,370 61.57 87.21 2.031 177 0.073 6 0.135 12 2.405 210
2. Banga II 7,696 47.64 161.54 3.628 586 0.000 0 4.051 654 0.562 91
3. Bintog 3,153 32.44 97.21 0.524 51 3.217 313 0.000 0 4.884 475
4. Culianin 3,524 32.36 108.90 2.831 308 0.000 0 2.103 229 6.639 723
5. Dampol 2,466 26.53 92.95 2.341 218 1.162 108 1.750 163 3.681 342
6. Lumang Bayan 4,129 14.28 289.15 3.554 1028 5.536 1601 1.925 557 9.044 2615
7. Parulan 5,992 33.78 177.36 2.333 414 5.420 961 1.535 272 14.066 2495
8. Poblacion 3,589 74.66 48.07 6.094 293 0.802 39 0.017 1 8.568 412
9. Rueda 1,527 28.41 53.76 4.666 251 7.301 392 3.646 196 6.747 363
10. San Jose 3,039 36.53 83.18 0 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.670 56
11. Sipat 1,773 54.93 32.28 9.507 307 3.769 122 5.870 189 7.870 254
MUNICIPALITY OF PULILAN
1. Cutcot 2,908 31.56 92.14 1.285 118 0.000 0 3.506 323 0.092 8
2. Dampol I 4,415 61.27 72.06 2.134 154 0.003 0 3.740 270 2.343 169
3. Dampol II-A 2,617 37.44 69.89 1.676 117 5.120 358 0.000 0 8.002 559
4. Dampol II-B 2,986 43.33 68.91 3.181 219 4.468 308 0.000 0 8.578 591
5. Longos 4,370 36.05 121.23 2.681 325 1.873 227 2.499 303 4.190 508
6. Lumbac 3,208 96.98 33.08 1.526 50 3.389 112 0.000 0 5.088 168
7. Paltao 4,565 37.83 120.67 0.940 113 6.029 728 0.738 89 6.872 829
8. Poblacion 9,944 72.14 137.84 4.944 681 0.887 122 2.956 408 5.158 711
9. Sto. Cristo 5,403 46.95 115.07 4.548 523 3.964 456 3.814 439 9.873 1136
10. Taal 4,223 65.55 64.43 0.093 6 0.181 12 0.125 8 2.021 130
11. Tibag 3,070 41.17 74.56 5.900 440 3.972 296 3.742 279 7.416 553
Source: 2000 NSO CPH/ Barangay Land Area from LMB-DENR overlaid to Flood Hazard Map from MGB-DENR

Based on built-up area, comparing the table above from the result of the analysis

for 2010 census shows that the barangay of Lumang Bayan and Banga II in Plaridel have

the highest population exposure for both 0-100 and 100-200 meter river distance. In

Pulilan, the barangays of Longos, Poblacion and Sto. Cristo have the highest population
 9797

exposure under Highly Susceptible Area (HSA) within 0-100 and 100-200 meter buffer

distance as which is parallel to the results of 2010 analysis.

In the case of barangay Lumang Bayan in Plaridel, it is notablethat exposure from

the year 2000 is much greater than in the 2010 results, although there is an increase in

population overtime. This is attributed to the gathered topographic maps wherein the

built-up area of such barangay is much lesser in 2002 compared to the built-up of 2011

which produced a higher population density.

Vulnerability of Exposed Population

After the exposure of population has been evaluated, the risk factor can be applied

once its vulnerability level has been analyzed either in quantity or quality. The

vulnerability is the third factor of risk assessment after the hazard and exposure has been

examined based on the Mainstreaming Guidelines of DRR in Sub-national Development

and Land Use Planning.

Figure 28:The Risk Triangle

Source: Adapted from D. Crichton, 1999; Kron 2002

Vulnerability is a concept that links the relationship of the exposed population or

properties to the totality of its condition and social situation (Bankoff, et, al. 2004.). In

other words, it should assess how much harm or damage a hazard could inflict on people

considering their overall status. Based on this definition, the risk can accordingly be
 9898

decreased by reducing any one of the three factors.One way of doing this is lessening the

vulnerability which can be done through better vulnerability assessment and land use

planning.

Assessment of vulnerability streams using various methodologies in the field of

disaster risk is widely complex and multidisciplinary, as there are no specific methods yet

being strongly recommended. Though this research is not entirely focusing on the

vulnerability level of people within the environment exposed to hazard, it is rather

significant to assess the risks considering factors of poverty, health, housing structure and

education as indicator of vulnerability levels. A survey based on random sampling of

residents (n=128 total in Plaridel, n=31 total in Pulilan) in the riverfront communities

(n=10 barangays) in the municipality of Plaridel and Pulilan has been conducted to

provide a glimpse of people’s living conditionsin the areas highly susceptible to flooding.

However, the survey on vulnerability cannot be classified as intensive and only

qualitative assessment was drawn.

Based on the survey conducted, the average household size from the study area

ranges from 4 to 6 members as shown from the results below (see Figure 29). However,

it could be noticed that 11 percent of the respondents comprises 9 members on their

households.
 9999

Figure 29:Average
Average Household Size from the Study Area
Average Household Size

Three (3) Four (4)

7% 21%
Five (5)
Ten or more 20%
(>10)
2%
Nine (9)
11%
Six (6)
18%
Seven (7)
Eight (8) 14%
7%

Source: Household Surveys Conducted by Rellie Legaspi and Kristine Pineda – March-May, 2014

The results also shows that 38 percent of the houses in the subject area are made

from concrete materials and 27 percent are made of wood. Houses made from light or

salvaged materials such as bamboo comprised a total of 18 percent.

Figure 30:Housing
Housing Structures from the Study Area
Housing Structures
Bamboo/sack
5%

Bamboo
Concrete
10%
38%

Wood
Mixed Light materials
27%
materials 3%
17%

Source: Household Surveys Conducted by Rellie Legaspi and Kristine Pineda – March-May, 2014
 100100

From the respondents of the survey, primary and secondary educations are the

common highest attainment. Only 4 percent experienced college education and none of

them graduated from college.

Figure 31:Educational
Educational Attainment of Respondents from the Study Area
Educational Attainment

Elementary
undergraduate College
22% undergraduate
Elementary
4%
graduate
38% Highschool
graduate
20%

Highschool
undergraduate
16%

Source: Household
hold Surveys Conducted by Rellie Legaspi and Kristine Pineda – March-May, 2014

The most common occupations

occupation of people who responded to the survey are day

laborers, factory workers,

workers construction site workers,
s, driving, farming, bottle washing and

candle making. Some run small businesses such as retail stores and tricycle services.

On the factors of health and sanitation, 42 percent of the respondents are drinking

water coming from the deep well and 27 percent have

ha no direct access to sanitary toilets.

Though there is a schedule garbage collection, there are still households who opt to burn

their garbage or throw it to the river directly.

 101101

Figure 32:Water
Water Sources and Sanitation Survey Results

Source: Household Surveys Conducted

cted by Rellie Legaspi and Kristine Pineda – March-May, 2014

Validating the results of hazard characterization and exposure analysis, the

respondents mostly experience flooding twice every year. When this disaster occurs,

they are said to be evacuating to higher grounds such as relatives at safer places or

designated evacuation sites.

Figure 33:Number
Number of Flooding Experience per year of the Respondents
Flooding Experience per Year

2 times
55%
Once
10%
6 times
3%
5 times
2% 4 times 3 times
7% 23%

Source: Household Surveys Conducted by Rellie Legaspi and Kristine Pineda – March-May, 2014
014

Given the survey results on the condition of those populations living in areas

fronting the river exposed to highly susceptible flooding, vulnerability assessment can be

drawn qualitatively.
 102102

Risk Assessment on Properties

The DRA-CCVA Report accordingly utilizes the procedures of risk assessment on

properties as suggested from the mainstreaming guidelines released by NEDA in 2008.

Apparently, there are three major steps to do this task:

 Gather the elements or properties under subject with location and

estimated cost to generate property map.

 Overlay the hazard to properties to identify the extent of properties

exposed to certain susceptibility of hazard.

 Determine the amount of properties exposed.

This study also implemented the same procedures to assess the risk on properties

to the barangays of Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan directly fronting the Angat

River within the definite buffer strips.

Since this study focuses on the land use change and patterns along the subject

area, only those concerning general land use properties will be processed to identify

potential exposure to flooding hazard. Though several types of properties were included

in the DRA-CCVA report such as critical infrastructures, lifeline facilities, built-up and

agricultural areas, this study will focus the assessment on built-up and inbuilt

environment only, as discussed in the land use patterns sectionof this chapterto respond to

the primary research question on how have land use patterns contributed to climate

related disaster risks.

Land Use andProperty Inventory

Figure 34 below shows the property inventory map of Bulacan province used in

the risk assessment of properties for DRA-CCVA Report which includes the land use
 103103

properties and critical infrastructure points. Though this study will not examine the risk

on major buildings, the approach on risk assessment for land use properties will follow

the procedures applied to the DRA-CCVA report as prescribe by the Mainstreaming

Guidelines for the exposed land area fronting the Angat River.

Figure 34:Land use and Property Inventory Map

Study Area

Source: DRA-CCVA Report/ Provincial Planning and Development Office – Province of Bulacan

Identifying Potentially Exposed Properties from Flooding

The processed flooding hazard map was overlaid on to the generated land use

exposure map through GIS procedures. From the union of two maps, the potentially

exposed properties can now be estimated. The properties in the intersection areas of the
 104104

two maps constitute the exposed property typeswith the schema for estimation such as

follows:

 For Highly Susceptible Area (HSA) - the property exposed to Highly

Susceptible Area (HSA) of the flooding hazard map in the barangay is the

exposed property for the barangay.

 For Low to Moderately Susceptible Area (LMSA), the property exposed to

Highly Susceptible (HSA) and Low to Moderately Susceptible Area (LMSA)

of the flooding hazard map in the barangay is the exposed property for the

barangay.

The following Table 24 shows the results of the overlay analysis for determining

the potentially exposed land use properties from flooding on the riverfront barangays of

the Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan using the 2011 built-up area GIS dataset.

Table 24: 2011 Built-up Area Exposure to Flooding per River Buffer Distance
Within 0-100 Meter Buffer Strip Within 100-200 Meter Buffer Strip
Total Area Unbuilt Unbuilt
BARANGAY Builtup Builtup Unbuilt Unbuilt Total Area Builtup Builtup
Within 0-100 area area
within HSA Within area within area within Within 100- within within
Meter Buffer within within
(ha) LMSA(ha) HSA LMSA 200m Buffer HSA(ha) LMSA(ha)
Strip HSA LMSA
MUNICIPALITY OF PLARIDEL
1. Banga I 3.53 2.203 0.073 1.156 0.101 5.05 0.140 2.527 0.090 2.291
2. Banga II 3.84 3.766 0.000 0.069 0.000 4.61 4.051 0.563 0.000 0.000
3. Bintog 13.05 0.541 3.479 6.937 2.094 12.37 0.000 6.974 3.148 2.250
4. Culianin 11.64 3.243 0.000 8.323 0.072 16.10 2.567 7.872 1.620 4.045
5. Dampol 5.19 2.690 1.162 1.342 0.000 6.29 1.795 3.681 0.819 0.000
6. Lumang Bayan 19.35 3.606 5.943 9.741 0.060 23.69 1.959 9.415 9.348 2.964
7. Parulan 25.90 2.790 6.108 15.983 1.023 20.12 1.709 14.564 0.668 3.179
8. Poblacion 6.98 6.132 0.280 0.041 0.522 8.81 0.017 8.593 0.000 0.202
9. Rueda 13.69 5.058 7.461 0.873 0.293 11.27 3.747 6.748 0.575 0.201
10. San Jose 0.02 0.000 0.000 0.017 0.000 1.91 0.000 0.670 0.289 0.952
11. Sipat 28.32 10.680 3.786 13.851 0.000 29.76 7.847 8.874 8.310 4.730
MUNICIPALITY OF PULILAN
1. Cutcot 1.68 1.467 0.000 0.215 0.000 6.48 3.609 0.119 1.987 0.770
2. Dampol I 13.21 2.443 0.005 10.745 0.021 14.83 4.338 2.345 6.058 2.091
3. Dampol II-A 6.80 1.676 5.120 0.004 0.000 8.00 0.000 8.002 0.000 0.000
4. Dampol II-B 7.65 3.182 4.468 0.000 0.000 8.58 0.000 8.578 0.000 0.000
 105105

5. Longos 23.25 4.640 1.873 16.736 0.000 22.69 4.366 5.182 12.518 0.621
6. Lumbac 6.00 2.301 3.390 0.304 0.005 5.99 0.000 5.595 0.000 0.392
7. Paltao 6.98 0.952 6.029 0.000 0.000 7.77 0.870 6.897 0.000 0.000
8. Poblacion 9.16 6.683 0.888 0.970 0.615 10.72 3.523 5.489 0.806 0.905
9. Sto. Cristo 14.71 5.753 4.015 4.946 0.000 18.60 4.143 10.033 3.674 0.751
10. Taal 10.74 0.157 0.193 9.409 0.981 16.11 0.238 2.181 7.824 5.869
11. Tibag 10.53 5.907 3.972 0.654 0.000 13.03 3.862 7.646 1.238 0.286
Source: Built-up Area from Digitized Land use for 2011 overlaid to Flood Hazard Map from MGB-DENR

The Plaridel barangays of Sipat, Poblacion and Rueda have the highest built-up

area exposed to high susceptible flooding within 0-100 meter strip while the barangays of

Sipat, Banga II and Rueda have the highest exposure within 100-200 meter river buffer

zone. The barangays of Poblacion, Sto. Cristo, Tibag and Longos in Pulilan have the

highest built-up area exposed to high susceptible flooding within 0-100 meter strip while

still Sto. Cristo, Longos and Dampol-I have the highest exposure within 100-200 meters

river distance.

The following Table25 shows the results of the overlay analysis for determining

the potentially exposed land use properties from flooding on the riverfront barangays of

the Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan using the 2002 built-up area GIS dataset.

Table 25: 2002 Built-up Area Exposure to Flooding per River Buffer Distance
Within 0-100 Meter Buffer Strip Within 100-200 Meter Buffer Strip
Total Area Unbuilt Unbuilt
BARANGAY Builtup Builtup Unbuilt Unbuilt Total Area Builtup Builtup
Within 0-100 area area
within HSA Within area within area within Within 100- within within
Meter Buffer within within
(ha) LMSA(ha) HSA LMSA 200m Buffer HSA(ha) LMSA(ha)
Strip HSA LMSA
MUNICIPALITY OF PLARIDEL
1. Banga I 3.53 2.031 0.073 1.329 0.097 5.05 0.135 2.405 0.095 2.415
2. Banga II 3.84 3.628 0.000 0.212 0.000 4.61 4.051 0.562 0.000 0.000
3. Bintog 13.05 0.524 3.217 6.956 2.353 12.37 0.000 4.884 3.150 4.336
4. Culianin 11.64 2.831 0.000 8.739 0.070 16.10 2.103 6.639 2.087 5.281
5. Dampol 5.19 2.341 1.162 1.689 0.000 6.29 1.750 3.681 0.860 0.000
6. Lumang Bayan 19.35 3.554 5.536 9.796 0.464 23.69 1.925 9.044 9.385 3.336
7. Parulan 25.90 2.333 5.420 16.437 1.710 20.12 1.535 14.066 0.845 3.674
8. Poblacion 6.98 6.094 0.802 0.076 0.008 8.81 0.017 8.568 0.003 0.222
9. Rueda 13.69 4.666 7.301 1.264 0.449 11.27 3.646 6.747 0.674 0.203
10. San Jose 0.02 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.000 1.91 0.000 0.670 0.290 0.950
11. Sipat 28.32 9.507 3.769 15.023 0.021 29.76 5.870 7.870 10.290 5.730
MUNICIPALITY OF PULILAN
 106106

1. Cutcot 1.68 1.285 0.000 0.395 0.000 6.48 3.506 0.092 2.094 0.798
2. Dampol I 13.21 2.134 0.003 11.056 0.027 14.83 3.740 2.343 6.660 2.097
3. Dampol II-A 6.80 1.676 5.120 0.004 0.000 8.00 0.000 8.002 0.000 0.000
4. Dampol II-B 7.65 3.181 4.468 0.000 0.002 8.58 0.000 8.578 0.000 0.002
5. Longos 23.25 2.681 1.873 18.699 0.000 22.69 2.499 4.190 14.381 1.610
6. Lumbac 6.00 1.526 3.389 1.074 0.011 5.99 0.000 5.088 0.000 0.902
7. Paltao 6.98 0.940 6.029 0.010 0.001 7.77 0.738 6.872 0.132 0.028
8. Poblacion 9.16 4.944 0.887 2.706 0.613 10.72 2.956 5.158 1.374 1.232
9. Sto. Cristo 14.71 4.548 3.964 6.152 0.056 18.60 3.814 9.873 4.006 0.907
10. Taal 10.74 0.093 0.181 9.477 0.989 16.11 0.125 2.021 7.935 6.029
11. Tibag 10.53 5.900 3.972 0.660 0.000 13.03 3.742 7.416 1.358 0.514
Source: Built-up Area from Digitized Land use for 2002 overlaid to Flood Hazard Map from MGB-DENR

Back-tracking the exposure process using the 2002 built-up dataset, barangays

Sipat, Poblacion and Rueda still have the highest built-up area exposed to high

susceptible flooding within 0-100 meter strip while the barangays of Sipat, Banga II and

Rueda have the highest exposure within 100-200 meter river buffer zone. The barangays

of Poblacion, Sto. Cristo, Tibag and Dampol II-B from municipality of Pulilan have the

highest built-up area exposed to high susceptible flooding within 0-100 meter strip while

the barangays of Tibag, Sto. Cristo, Cutcot and Dampol-I have the highest exposure

within 100-200 meters river distance. It may be basically observed that the built-up areas

in each of the barangays have increased between the years 2002 to 2011.

Determining the Amount of Properties Exposed

Based on the DRA-CCVA report, the mainstreaming guidelines suggest costing

for the land use properties. The estimated regional or local property monetary value is

required for cost analysis; hence, the costing used in this study was derived from the

mainstreaming guidelines for assessment purposes only.

Table 26: Land Use Costing Estimates for Risk Assessment

Land Use Unit Cost/ Hectare (PhP)
Agricultural (Rice) 30,486.00
Agricultural (Cornt) 17,112.00
Agricultural (Coffee) 25,228.00
 107107

Agricultural (Mango) 60,038.00

Protection Forest 33,267.00
Production Forest 43,146.00
Fishery 32,843.00
Built up Area 77,050,000.00
Unclassified/Un-builtEnvironment 0.00
Source: Mainstreaming DRR-CCA to Local Development and Land Use Plans - NEDA

Estimates of the amount of land use properties exposed will be based on the above

table. The built-up area will be computed based on Php 77,050,000.00 per hectare while

the un-built environment or unclassified land use with unit cost of Php 0.00 will not be

included in the risk assessment. The following table shows the estimated amount of land

use properties exposed in the certain level of flooding susceptibility per river buffer zone.

Table 27: 2002 Estimated Land Use Exposure Cost –Riverfront Barangays
2002 Land Use Exposure Cost (Php)
BARANGAY 0-100 Meter Buffer Strip 100-200 Meter Buffer Strip
Within HSA Within LMSA Within HSA Within LMSA
MUNICIPALITY OF PLARIDEL
1. Banga I 156,504,798.97 5,587,449.30 10,434,409.72 185,322,405.66
2. Banga II 279,507,798.96 0.00 312,136,698.19 43,339,368.42
3. Bintog 40,397,627.26 247,879,556.49 0.00 376,305,698.91
4. Culianin 218,098,849.26 20,586.80 162,023,939.76 511,520,911.32
5. Dampol 180,359,936.08 89,533,958.53 134,870,165.36 283,602,901.11
6. Lumang
Bayan 273,839,146.18 426,515,508.23 148,313,070.96 696,822,797.91
7. Parulan 179,757,072.50 417,621,432.60 118,303,529.36 1,083,817,602.31
8. Poblacion 469,577,176.87 61,761,131.78 1,292,397.12 660,198,771.52
9. Rueda 359,518,505.40 562,545,827.26 280,947,753.60 519,835,462.23
10. San Jose 0.00 0.00 0.00 51,597,969.66
11. Sipat 732,493,904.29 290,429,075.89 452,290,646.31 606,353,836.88
MUNICIPALITY OF PULILAN
1. Cutcot 98,989,716.62 0.00 270,156,141.13 7,076,839.34
2. Dampol I 164,450,945.16 197,299.54 288,167,590.67 180,513,710.65
3. Dampol II-A 129,118,170.30 394,496,609.48 0.00 616,542,557.55
4. Dampol II-B 245,072,935.00 344,242,816.19 0.00 660,969,000.64
5. Longos 206,555,150.91 144,298,562.80 192,533,804.10 322,860,914.48
6. Lumbac 117,546,208.37 261,086,603.69 0.00 392,032,898.11
7. Paltao 72,401,057.70 464,529,604.28 56,882,965.73 529,482,663.98
8. Poblacion 380,935,504.74 68,350,975.99 227,789,427.38 397,424,517.00
9. Sto. Cristo 350,424,637.77 305,425,417.46 293,837,592.19 760,703,446.15
10. Taal 7,159,399.09 13,981,053.57 9,637,143.50 155,754,020.46
11. Tibag 454,563,999.41 306,005,263.86 288,288,383.85 571,405,230.39
Source: Built-up Area from Digitized Land use for 2002 overlaid to Flood Hazard Map from MGB-DENR

Table 28: 2011 Estimated Land Use Exposure Cost –Riverfront Barangays
2011 Land Use Exposure Cost (Php)
BARANGAY
0-100 Meter Buffer Strip 100-200 Meter Buffer Strip
 108108

Within HSA Within LMSA Within HSA Within LMSA

MUNICIPALITY OF PLARIDEL
1. Banga I 169,731,069.17 5,587,445.53 10,792,334.81 194,678,072.12
2. Banga II 290,192,519.59 0.00 312,136,547.71 43,340,948.55
3. Bintog 41,700,101.46 268,020,949.44 0.00 537,324,367.54
4. Culianin 249,894,378.25 20,569.87 197,758,290.71 606,575,380.08
5. Dampol 207,231,132.99 89,534,086.45 138,305,521.25 283,602,991.41
6. Lumang
Bayan 277,807,762.94 457,905,894.56 150,939,418.78 725,439,609.97
7. Parulan 214,936,228.92 470,632,327.33 131,712,144.33 1,122,162,095.38
8. Poblacion 472,461,243.39 21,570,702.43 1,292,406.53 662,069,566.59
9. Rueda 389,697,288.00 574,904,842.89 288,716,071.54 519,940,313.06
10. San Jose 0.00 0.00 0.00 51,605,351.11
11. Sipat 822,857,410.66 291,692,846.37 604,574,843.42 683,761,571.98
MUNICIPALITY OF PULILAN
1. Cutcot 113,049,358.94 0.00 278,078,634.32 9,172,313.41
2. Dampol I 188,270,173.88 376,583.76 334,265,078.21 180,700,402.65
3. Dampol II-A 129,118,166.54 394,496,797.59 0.00 616,542,572.60
4. Dampol II-B 245,146,805.94 344,242,319.58 0.00 660,969,030.74
5. Longos 357,547,927.20 144,332,215.74 336,369,218.53 399,284,879.47
6. Lumbac 177,275,669.35 261,232,567.92 0.00 431,065,340.83
7. Paltao 73,332,288.59 464,529,333.40 67,041,425.09 531,409,980.57
8. Poblacion 514,910,142.56 68,447,813.32 271,442,966.43 422,958,960.36
9. Sto. Cristo 443,233,266.44 309,391,750.56 319,184,615.57 773,033,359.23
10. Taal 12,070,147.74 14,858,908.15 18,361,274.59 168,082,592.32
11. Tibag 455,120,192.81 306,005,196.14 297,564,003.70 589,098,455.52
Source: Built-up Area from Digitized Land use for 2011 overlaid to Flood Hazard Map from MGB-DENR

While the figures above shows millions of pesos exposed to varying susceptibility

to flooding, the results are generally parallel to the land use exposure except that

monetary quantities are in some manner necessary to justify amount of assets at risk.

Trends of the Assessment Results

Comparing the results of disaster risk assessment in this section from historical

data above with the results of the analysis for 2010 census, all of the barangays from both

municipalities show an increase in population from year 2000 to 2010. This similarly

resulted in the increase of population exposure to flooding hazard susceptibility. There

are numerous inferences that can be extracted from the results of assessment;

nonetheless, the direct analysis for the research question shows that the larger the
 109109

population exposed the higher the risk and the larger the built-up area the higher the

exposure cost is.

Thequantitative survey results andqualitative analysis of the data on the

vulnerability of the exposed population in this study suggests low reduction of risks. The

vulnerability of housing structures is relatively high with only 38 percent of are made of

concrete materials that can somewhat withstand the impact of flooding. Education and

livelihood levels provedtoolow among residents of communities fronting the Angat

River, with none of the respondents actually finished college studies and most of them

have neithergood paying jobs norstable sources of income. Social condition of health

does not similarly relieve their level of vulnerabilitysince 42 percent of drinking water

comesfrom deep wells that draw water underground and relatively half of the garbage is

being burned or directly being thrown to the river itself. All these suggestspoverty is

prevalent in the study area.

The human population as primary development driver is one of the key factors of

land use changes as well as land conversion attracting settlement expansion. An increase

in population will be followed by changes in land cover and land use, specifically the

spreading out of built up environment. As long as the settlement stretch of such

population is exposed to a certain hazard, there is a considerable amount of risks to lives

and assets involved, even when people are provided with community resiliency strategies

to decrease their vulnerability levels. Moreover, if such population expands within the

hazard prone zones, consequently broadening the extents of built-up area, the risks will

correspondingly amplified. Incremental risks to lives and properties are bound to

transpire.
 110110

D. Analysis ofContributing Issues To Disaster Risks Concerning Land Use

This research identified the land use patterns for the research subject area and the

corresponding disaster risks associated with these patterns. This sectiondiscusses other

issues that are arising and contributing to these assessed risks. The points of interests that

were considered here with concerns to land use are the informal settlements, waste

management, riverbank bank erosion, siltation and institutional capacities of local

government units. The data collected and analysed are based on the results of the

conducted observations, field interviews and social interactions with the key informants

from the municipal government officers and the random sampling survey of villagers.

Informal Settlements

Based from the interviews from the Municipal Social Welfare and Development

Officers of both municipalities, informal settlements directly in front of the Angat River

are increasing throughout the years. The following table shows the records of informal

settlement households which is as well within the distance strip of 0-200 meters from the

river for the year 2008 to 2011 according to the available data.

Table 29: Number of Informal Settlement Households per Barangay

Baseline data
Barangay 2013 Survey % Increased
2008-2010
PULILAN
Sto. Cristo 101 124 16%
PLARIDEL
Poblacion 32 69 26%
BangaI 28 55 19%
BangaII 29 43 10%
Culianin 5 8 2%
Dampol 18 33 11%
Lumang Bayan 24 36 9%
 111111

Parulan 109 199 64%

Rueda 16 18 1%
Sipat 31 51 14%
TOTAL 1,461 3,127 114%
Source: Municipal Social Welfare and Development Offices

The baseline data for the total number of informal settlements households were

from year 2008-2010, depending on the available survey from the barangays concerned.

The latest survey was conducted in 2013 wherein only the barangay Sto. Cristo in Pulilan

has the official count of informal household structures with an increase of 16 percent in

an estimated 5-year period while the total count in Plaridel increased by more than double

its size during the same period.

Substantial efforts were exerted to collect historical information on informal

settlements; however, there were no available data from the municipal level. The

municipal officers admitted that these settlements were already present when they

assumed office, although they were then significantly fewer in numbers. Moreover, there

were portions that they cannot remember when the settlements have started. In this

regard, accounts on increasing households along the river for the more distant past have

only been drawn from random casual conversation among the residents themselves. One

instance is an elderly woman from Banga I, Plaridel confirmed that they were living in

the area for more than 20 years. However, responses with regards to the sprawl of

squatters are varying even to the extent of contradicting claims from one resident to the

others highlighting the following points:

 One elderly recount that there were hardly recognizable increased in housing

structures but the numbers of people have largely grown in their riverfront

community.
 112112

 Two respondents have lived in the area since late 1990s and affirmed that the

settlement is already full when they arrived.

 One has claimed that there are new houses constructed almost every month

while another confirmed this saying houses have spread rapidly, with some

encroaching the river waters.

 One said that she is living in the area for 10 years and only remembered 2 new

concrete houses in their area have been erected.

 Another asserted that they were only few way back in 1989 and now there

were no space available.

The increase in informal settlements in barangay Sto. Cristo, Pulilan and in

various Plaridel barangays directly fronting the Angat river may be attributed to the

availability of livelihood in the area based on the gathered information from the informal

dialogues. Some of the residents’ accounts confirm these insights based on the following

stories from the interviews with residents.

 Most informal settlers came from provinces of Bicol and Visayas regions to

try their fortune in Manila but eventually decided to reside along the river of

Plaridel or Pulilan.

 They joined their relatives already living in the area to work as labourers,

construction workers or bottle washers.

 Due to area’s proximity in the urbanized and highly commercial zones, some

came from neighbouring places such as Zambales and Metro Manila and

doing small businesses such as market vendors, retail variety store owners and

tricycle operators.
 113113

The common denominator from the results of the conducted social interactions

with the key informants from the barangay and informal settlers themselves is the

confirmation of spreading built-up zones as settlement areas. With the support of Global

Positioning System (GPS), the initial point of location of informal settlements for each

reported barangays has been identified. Still, its actual geographic extents are tough to

survey. To initially map out the extents of informal settlements, this study has employed

the GIS overlay analysis of land parcels and the identified built-up area with the latest

dataset for the year 2011. Figure35 shows the land parcel maps of the riverfront areas for

the municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan within the strip distance of 0-200 meters from

the river as basis of the overlay analysis.

 114114

Figure 35:Parcellary Map - Riverfront Barangays

Source: Parcellary provided by Provincial Assessors Office of Bulacan from Land Management Bureau- DENR

From the established land parcel maps from the Provincial Assessor’s Office of

Bulacan province digitized from Land Management Bureau (LMB) of DENR, the

generated built-up areas were overlaid to initially determine the extent of informal

settlements. The assumption being undertaken in this procedure is that squatting

normally occurred within the public domain and such occupied land properties are not

included in the tax maps from land parcel records. The result of this process is shown in

the following figure (see Figure 36) with the corresponding number of informal

household in each barangay wherein the resultant vectors are considered the extents of

informal settlements since there is a built-up area within the public domain with no tax

map records based on land parcels.

 115115

Figure 36:Built-up Areas without Parcel Records - Riverfront Barangays

Sto. Cristo (124 HH)

Culianin (8 HH)

Rueda(18 HH)

Dampol(33 HH) Sipat(51 HH)

LumangBayan(36 HH) Parulan (199 HH)

Poblacion (69 HH)

Banga II (43 HH)
Banga I (55 HH)

Source: Parcellary provided by Provincial Assessors Office of Bulacan from Land Management Bureau- DEN; Built-up areas from
Provincial Development and Physical Framework Plan, Province of Bulacan

The following are the some of the supporting images taken at the actual sites of

informal settlements from subject municipalities.

Figure 37:Sto. Cristo, Pulilan Informal Settlements

Photo Credits: K. Pineda

 116116

Figure 38:Banga II, Plaridel Informal Settlements

Photo Credits: K. Pineda

Much of the built up areas along the river violate existing easement regulations.

Most of the multifamily housing units are built on sloping land that is prone to landslide

and flooding during the rainy season. The land use patterns and the considerable

involvement of informal settlements in urban sprawl, together with the initial

identification of its location and extents of the built-up areas they covered, show that

thedisaster risks are of considerable degree and the challenge to reduce these risks is

enormous, particularly on the part of the local governments.

Waste Management and River Siltation

Solid waste management is one of the key components of sustainable

development for the Local Government Units as the Philippines is governed by the

Republic Act 9003 otherwise known as Solid Waste Management Act of 2000. The

Municipal Planning and Development Officers from both municipalities of Plaridel and

Pulilan confirmed that there is a continuing waste management program being

implemented in their respective localities. In fact, Plaridel has established Materials

Recovery Facilities (MRF) for all the barangays directly fronting the river and one

municipal-wide MRF located in barangay Bulihan. Unlike Plaridel, there are no

 117117

established barangay MRF in Pulilan, which has created waste recycling programs at the

municipal level. The following figure shows the daily waste generated in each LGU in

the province of Bulacan and its existing waste management facilities.

Figure 39:Volume of Waste Generated Daily

Source: Bulacan Environment and Natural Resources Office –Provincial Government of Bulacan; MPDOs

Though there was no established Barangay MRF from the municipality of Pulilan

there is an existing dumpsite that has been converted into Municipal-wide MRF.

Besides, based on the gathered data, Pulilan has relatively low volume of waste generated

daily as compared to Plaridel and the rest of the Province. Plaridel is reported to have

average waste generation of 72-100 cubic meters per day.

For both subject municipalities, part of the waste management program is the
 118118

scheduled collection of solid wastes for each barangay by garbage trucks. Depending on

the schedule of rounds of the garbage trucks, they see to it that these services are

accessible to all of the communities. However, not all residents are cooperative with the

garbage collection and MRF program.

It is basically implied from the responses that households near or directly fronting

the Angat River are more inclined to let their wastes flow along the river which

contribute to river siltation. Based on the survey data, around 40 percent of households

turned their wastes over to garbage collector while there were around 15% throwing

theirs to the river.

Table 30: Garbage Disposal Practices at the Research Site

GARBAGE MANAGEMENT %
Compost Pit 11%
Burning 29%
Burning/garbage collector 5%
Garbage collector 41%
River 9%
Burning/ River 6%
TOTAL 100%
Source: Household Surveys Conducted by Rellie Legaspi and Kristine Pineda – March-May2014

It can also be noted that burned wastes will eventually lead to the mainstream

river flow during the rains and flood water runoffs that can also be a factor in river

siltation and pollution. While not all the residents in front of the river are informal

settlers, the Municipal Social Welfare officers asserted that significant amount of garbage

thrown in the water ways are from the households very near or directly in front of the

river which are usually informal settlements.

 119119

Figure 40:An Elder Scavenger in Banga I, Plaridel

Photo Credits: K. Pineda

Figure 41:Water wastes in Banga I unrestrictedly flowing towards the river

Photo Credits: K. Pineda

 120120

Figure 42:Mountain of garbage forming as illegal dump site in Banga II, Plaridel

Photo Credits: K. Pineda

River pollution from the waste and the siltation from clay or sand sediments dueto

weather scouring and soil erosion make the Angat River silted, decreasing its water

carrying capacity. This has been confirmed by the Municipal Planning Officers of

Plaridel where they can cite portions of the river where a man can walk across and get to

the other side which is already the Municipality of Pulilan. Its current depth estimate of

around two meters in some portions has a vast difference compared to the recorded

supposed depth of Angat River main channel which is more or less five meters.

Indeed a shallow river due to siltation with significantly reduced water storage

volume will enhanced the flooding hazard thereby increasing the risks of the population

and properties exposed, especially in the riverfront communities and other low-lying

areas of the locality. The subject municipalities as well as the Provincial Government of

Bulacan acknowledge the importance of dredging operation in the whole river stretch,

which could materialize with the support of the national government.

 121121

Riverbank Erosion

Soil erosion, likewise classified ashydro-meteorological hazard according to

PAGASA, is the wearing away of its banks due to natural or dynamic flow of its waters.

Streams in the Angat River are characterised by their rapid current usually during heavy

rains and flooding events which typically cause erosion of the banks especially in the

meandering portions of the rivers. Aside from its contribution to sediment siltation,

riverbank erosion also poses issues on land use and misleading encroachment of

properties.

Though this is not the main concern of this research, it is worth noting from the

Parcellary Map the areas (noted in the grey areas) where there are identified lot properties

that deceptively intrude the main river channel as shown in Figure43.

Figure 43:Identified Erosion Sites in Plaridel and Pulilan

Possible erosion at
Poblacion

Possible erosion at Sipat

Possible erosion at Dampol

Possible erosion at
Sto. Cristo

Possible erosion at
Lumang Bayan

Source: Parcellary provided by Provincial Assessors Office of Bulacan from Land Management Bureau- DENR overlaid to River
Network Map

The map above is the result of overlaying land parcel records as digitized by
 122122

Provincial Assessor’s Office of Bulacan sourced from Land Management Bureau of

DENR to the main river channel. The intersection of the two layers is the possible

eroded areas that occurred overtime. It is appealingly significant that the resultant

vectors are located in the relatively sharp curves of the river which are highly prone to

erosion hazard.

To validate the findings of GIS analysis, it has been confirmed by the Municipal

Planning and Development officers in the two municipalities that such erosion have

occurred due to the rapid water current and affected the land properties located directly

facing the river. Information has been gathered on the recently reported two (2) house

structures damaged due to erosion. Fortunately, reports confirmed there were no injuries

from the incidents.

Figure 44:Soil Erosion Case in Dampol, Plaridel

Photo Credits: MPDO Plaridel

 123123

Figure 45:Soil Erosion Case in Sipat, Plaridel

Photo Credits: MPDO Plaridel

Riverbank erosion in the Angat River would result in additional siltation and

slope degradation which consequently would exacerbate climate related risks in the area,

particularly threatening the lives of people residing in the households standing on the

banks itself along the dangerous curves of the river.

Figure 46:Slope Protection Project in Plaridel

Photo Credits: MPDO Plaridel

 124124

Figure 47:Slope Protection Project in Sto. Cristo, Pulilan

Photo Credits: K. Pineda

The local governments have been addressing this issue through its slope

stabilization projects along the river with the assistance from national government. They

are also proposing such strategies be applied to the entire stretch of the river.

Institutional Capacity

From interviews conducted with local government officers, institutional

competence (or incompetence) plays a vital role in either contributing to or reducing

disaster risks. In each of the phase of disaster risk reduction measures, the Municipal

Planning and Development officers from both municipalities conceded that most of the

burden of risk reduction lies within the capacity of concerned local government units.

There are various methodologies to measure institutional capacity such as

assessment of compliance with RA 10121 (Disaster Risk Reduction Management Act of

2010), RA 9729 (Climate Change Act of 2009) and resiliency assessment using Hyogo

Framework, which is resiliency action framework prescribed by United Nations Office

for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR). While the interviews did not employ such

assessment methods extensively, major points have been tackled to provide apparent

institutional assessment. This section will discuss the major outcome of such discussions
 125125

dealing with the government institution issues to disaster risks.

Pending Approval of Establishment of Disaster Risk Reduction Management Offices

Under RA 10121, LGUs are mandated to formally establish local DRRM offices

which shall be responsible for setting the direction, development, implementation, and

coordination of disaster risk reduction programs. Theinstitutionalized office and

dedicated personnel with permanent positions as disaster risk reduction officers required

by the Philippine law to be able to function fully that shall design programs and

coordinate disaster risk reduction and management activities consistent with the national

council standards and guidelines.

The municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan have organized their respective

Municipal level DRRM Councils in compliance with the mandate to include various

municipal departments, non-government organization (NGO) and National Government

agencies. Both also established response and rescue teams to respond and manage the

adverse effects of emergencies and carry out recovery activities in the affected area.

Nonetheless the MDRRC offices with dedicated officers and DRRM Operations Centers

are yet to be founded.

According to the Municipal Planning and Development officers, the proposed

formation of MDRRC office with corresponding positions and budgetary requirements is

still pending and awaiting approval of their respective Sangguniang Bayan. The

personnel from MPDO are currently handling the designation as MDRRMC officers with

unstructured workforces coming from other departments.This may trigger an issue

regarding compliance with the mandates and the level of commitment of designated

personnel with extra responsibilities in other department.

 126126

Maintaining Databases of Historical Disaster Events

As part of disaster preparedness and mitigation, hazard characterization is the

initial step to undertake based on the Mainstreaming DRR/CCA Guideline into local

development plans. One has to know the hazard to be able to plan for it through hazard

mapping and collection of disaster memories and stories of associated historical events.

The local governments in Bulacan with assistance of OCD is continuously conducting

education and information campaign and workshops to identify, map-out and

characterized all hazards in each barangays in the province in line with hazard

characterization process as part of disaster risk reduction measure which also includes

presentation of known historical disaster events of major scales.

Figure 48:Hazards Information and Education Campaign in Bulacan Province

Photo Credits: R. Legaspi

Hazard mapping is not a problem for the subject municipalities since both have

acquired the maps for the identified hazards in their respective areas. What is missing is

the organized and structured record keeping system of accounts of historical local disaster

events. The officer-in-charge of Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

(MDRRMO) of Plaridel said that they never had an existing system for archiving disaster

records. As of now, they are relying on anecdotal accounts.

 127127

Fortunately at the provincial level, the PDRRMO is currently using the Disaster

Management Information System (DMIS) to encode, monitor and archive disaster events

in the province which is also maintaining records of affected population and amounts of

damages to various sectors. However, additional research efforts are needed to gather

information on disastrous events from the distant past.

To be able to characterize the hazard properly, the database of historical disaster

records is of equal significance as the acquisition of hazard maps.

Proper Formulation of Various Plans and Official Documents

Referring to the mandates of RA 10121, LGUs should formulate and implement a

comprehensive and integrated Local DRRMPlan in accordance with the national,

regional and provincial framework, and policies on disaster risk reduction in close

coordination with the local development councils (LDCs). This was added by the

required preparation of Contingency Plans by NDRRMC-Office of Civil Defense (OCD).

Prior to this, RA 7160 otherwise known as Local Government Code of 1991 requires the

LGUs to formulate their respective Comprehensive Land Use Plans (CLUP) to be

implemented through Zoning Ordinances.

The Contingency Plans of both municipalities are already drafted with the

assistance of OCD.While both CLUPs in the two municipalities are under revisions and

awaiting approval as likewise discussed in Land Use Patterns and Policies section of this

document,both LGUs have not started preparing their Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction

and Management Plan (MDRRMP) yet. Raising the concern of the officer from MPDO

of Plaridel, they are currently deficient to formulate MDRRMP and might require

technical assistance from Provincial Government and related National Government

 128128

Agencies.

This flaw in administrative segment is however repealed with the existing

programs and ongoing activities as both municipalities presented their current disaster

risk reduction measures. There is an adequate facts based on the presented documents

that LGUs are doing projects they assumed would reduce disaster risks specifically in the

cases of hazard zones in the river stretch.These include slope stabilization of riverbanks

and cooperation with the provincial government led project on relocation of informal

settlements along the high danger zone of the river.

Figure 49: The researcher at MPDO Plaridel with head Engineer Rey Alvaro

Photo Credits: K. Pineda

While the absence of MDRRMP is practically an issue with regards to the

compliance with the national mandates, there are informal efforts of LGUs towards

DRRM planning that existsin accordance with the laws. Yet these actions need to be

formalized in the form of guided and structured plan document preparation to comply

with the mandate and acquire other substantial benefits that recognized official papers
 129129

could provide.

Safeguarding the Danger Zones

Another issue that arises from institutional aspect is the government’s

responsibility to safeguard high danger zones. The DRRM Act of 2010 is requiring LGUs

the following strategies as part of disaster prevention and mitigation with concern to

safeguarding dangerous areas.

 Proper sitting of human settlements. New urban towns and new settlement areas

should be located away from disaster prone areas.

 Proper zoning of disaster prone areas. Areas frequently devastated by floods,

landslides, should be zoned as danger zones and their land uses should be strictly

regulated; residents occupying highly vulnerable areas should be relocated and

resettled.

 Strict monitoring and prohibiting the occupation by informal settlers of hazard

zones. Danger zones should be closely guarded to prevent informal settlers from

intruding and occupying these areas.

 Preserving or conserving natural defense. Critical environment and natural

resources should be protected and conserved because they are natural buffer zones

against natural disasters. Degraded environments further trigger or aggravate

disasters.

 Establishing safety regulationsto safeguard populations from hazards brought

about by physical events.

 130130

 Strictly enforcing environmental laws and regulations to minimize the adverse

impacts of climate change. Monitor compliance to environmental laws and

regulations by developers and residents.

 Issuing local ordinances on safety of communities. Local ordinances establishing

measures for communities to stay away from disaster risk areas and adopt

prescribed safety measures should be issued and strictly enforced.

 Providing appropriate engineering interventions or structural measures. Physical

structures/infrastructures like dams, levees, flood control and drainage, river bank

and road bank stabilization structures should be constructed and properly

maintained.

The level of compliance of LGUs with these essential risk reduction measures

were assessed based on the gathered information from field interviews and community

surveys where the first concrete evidence of non-compliance is the presence of informal

settlements very near the river and more seriously, some are above the river waters itself.

While the municipal officers from both municipalities are aware of the areas under high

danger zones, they admit that they cannot fully control the spread of informal settlements.

Moreover they point out that patrolling these hazardous zones were more of a

responsibility for the village leaders or barangay captains as they are considered the first

line of guards against illegally rising structures. But the municipal officers also

accounted for the role of political culture wherein people are voters within their

respective territories that are of election assets or they may possess properties that would

potentially ensure positive gains.

As of this writing, there is ongoing implementation of Executive Order 09 Series

 131131

of 2012 by the Provincial Government of Bulacan in cooperation with the LGUs and

NGAs ordering the relocation of settlement along the high danger zones of the Angat

River. Thousands of families has already been removed and resettled in social housing

projects in the municipalities of Bustos and Pandi. The former houses they have left at

the sites were eventually destroyed as shown in the next figure as example at Sto. Cristo,

Pulilan.

Figure 50:Destroyed Houses Vacated by Informal Settlers in Sto. Cristo, Pulilan

Photo Credits: K. Pineda

The presented cases here offers two possible scenarios of safeguarding the area.

One is not allowing any settlements at the first attempt and the other is relocating existing

households already present at the site and guard the place so they would never come

back. There were initial reports received by the project personnel that there were people

trying to rebuild their homes in theirprevious settlements. This is the new challenge for

the local government officers from the barangay, municipal up to provincial level to

guard the newly vacated high danger zones and prohibit potential occupants to settle in
 132132

these zones.

This could be a “lose-lose” situation from the perspective of local governments.

Safeguarding is already an issue of institutional aspect while relocation poses social

conflict and keeping informal settlements from intruding, emerging and growing, which

may aggravate such disputes.

Despite the persistence of informal dwellers, local governments should closely

guard the high danger zones and keep informal settlers from intruding and occupying

these areas as mandated by law under the 1987 Philippine Constitution, RA 7160 and RA

10121.
 133133

V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This chapter summarisesthe study findings by providing responses to the research

questions posed as the initial part of this document. It also presentssome key

recommendations arising from research results and suggests possible theme for future

research.

Revisiting the Research Questions

Revisiting the research questions raised at the first chapter, this section will first

address the subsidiary questions as answering these questions should help address the

main research question.

First is determining the dominant land use patterns in and around the Angat River

Basin using the case of river-front barangays in Pulilan and Plaridel municipalities based

on the available GIS data. The gathered land use maps clearly shows that the land use

pattern along the river buffer distance of 200 meters un-built areas are turned into built-

up zones.

The numerical figures gathered demonstrate that there were enormous changes

from 1997 to 2002 then slowly crept from 2007 to 2011, although still evident are open

areas classified as agricultural that were converted to built-up residential areas. The

quantitative data were complemented with field observation and validated by the

conducted field surveys and interviews with key informants from the municipal offices

and barangay residents. Both quantitative and qualitative research approaches were

employed as indicated in the methodology section.

The second subsidiary question is how are these current land use patterns
 134134

exacerbating and/or affecting known climate related risk in the Angat River Basin in

particular and the Bulacan Province in general. The disaster risk assessment performed

in this study confirmed the assumption that the larger the built-up within the hazard zone,

the larger the exposure which increases the disaster risk factor. The hazard maps

available showed that the riverfront barangays of municipality of Plaridel and Pulilan are

prone to varying levels of flooding susceptibility, which may intensify and worsen due to

the projected impacts of climate change, particularly with more frequent and voluminous

rainfall during the rainy seasons. Subsequently the sprawl of built environment within

these flood-prone areas in the informal settlements very near the main river channel adds

up to the exposure which boosts the disaster risks. Their vulnerability level is relatively

high as compared to the provincial average based on the primary data and survey results.

This will likewise increase the risk level of the province of Bulacan to flooding aside

from the other identified natural hazards.

The next subsidiary question is asking what are the climate risk adaptation

measures and strategies, particularly alternative land uses and policies that can be

developed in these municipalities, particularly in the most affected barangays fronting the

Angat River. There are existing and on-going risk reduction measures being done in both

municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan based on the gathered information such as

relocation of informal settlements and slope stabilization. There are also additional

proposed flagship projects for dredging of waterways and extended slope protection.

The research results suggest that zoning restrictions as a more significant scheme

for disaster prevention. Land use policies should be properly formulated and strictly

enforcedthrough zoning ordinances.Proper sitting of human settlement includes the

 135135

safeguarding of high danger zones to avoid intrusions which may be undertaken either by

regularly patrolling the identified area or converting hazardous zones to fenced natural

open parks.

The last subsidiary research question is what knowledge capabilities in risk

management and land use planning capabilities need to be developed at the municipal

and barangay level. Based on the existing Comprehensive Land Use Plans from subject

municipalities, there are strategies and development proposals that respond to the needs

of policy formulation and disaster risk reduction for the areas near the river. There are

also an on-going education and information campaigns for the local government officers

who are informed of hazard occurrences and significant risk reduction and management

strategies. Therefore knowledge in land use and planning capabilities can be assessed as

relatively adequate for both municipalities. The missing link is fast-tracking the approval

and implementation of CLUPs and formally documenting the Municipal Disaster Risk

Reduction and Management Plan (MDRRMP). The in-charge municipal DRRM officers

admitted they might need assistance in formulating their very first MDRRMP and in

updating their CLUP and CDP with mainstreamed DRRM and Climate Adaptation

Action Plans.

Disaster risk reduction and management plan in the Barangay level is likewise

important as such organization is the closest to people. This plan document will also

cover proper hazard characterization wherein detailed delineation of hazard prone areas

in the community can be thoroughly prepared thus targeting the objectives of the

proposed community-based hazard mapping project. This will similarly require

assistance from the provincial and related national government agencies.

 136136

Summarizing the responses to the subsidiary questions above is the answer to the

main research question of how have existing land use patterns in the barangays fronting

the Angat River been contributing to climate change and disaster related risks. The urban

sprawl in the barangays fronting the Angat River which is susceptible to flooding

increases the disaster risks at it adds up to the exposure of population and properties

aggravated by the high vulnerability of the communities exposed.

Recommendations

The possible recommendations enumerated here concentrate on institutional

aspect. As this study is contributing to the overall objectives of Collaborative

Governance in Angat River Basin Project based at the University of British Columbia

and funded by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, common

points are thereby proposed to Local Government Units in the province of Bulacan as

well as the related National Government Agencies. There may be existing propositions

which may be similar to the current projects on engineering and social interventions such

as slope stabilization, dredging of waterways and relocation of settlement in high danger

zones, however the schemes being recommended here are of equal importance in

strengthening current institutional capacities in disaster risk reduction.

The risk triangle clearly illustrates the relationship of three factors of hazard,

exposure and vulnerability. The first action to reduce risk is to mitigate the intensity of

the hazard which is impossible in cases of natural threats of hydro-meteorological and

geologic origins. In hazardous zones where there is a presence of elements such as

population and properties, the second measure is to remove or relocate these elements at

risks where it is proven to be the most tedious and expensive engagement, aside from
 137137

other factors of conflicts, resistance and other ecological issues. If such activities would

be difficult to undertake, the last possible resort to reduce the risk of these elements

exposed is to lessen its vulnerabilities by evidently providing them with programs and

projects uplifting socio-economic conditions thus strengthening their adaptive capacity in

the long run when untoward disaster events happened.

Recognizing the existence of high profile resettlement projects and extension of

huge efforts by the government at all administrative levels to implement risk reduction

measures, there are certainly areas that appealingly require further improvements. First is

the compliance with the existing provisions of the Local Government Code (RA 7160),

the mandated formulation of Comprehensive Land Use and Development Plans, the

Water Code of the Philippines (PD 1067), Waste Management Act (RA 9003), Disaster

Risk Reduction and Management Act (RA 10121), down to the local Municipal zoning

ordinances and building polices. As far as this study is concerned, there is an adequate

wide variety of these law and regulations, and what tends to be weak but matters the most

are in the level of implementation. It is therefore recommended that government offices

should assess themselves in good faith, particularly the degree of their compliance with

the provisions and mandates of all the laws to be able to take actions and fill the

consequential gaps, specifically in facing the challenges of climate change related

impacts on the ground.

Second is the need to formally formulate and publish various official plan

documents from the up-to-date Comprehensive Land Use Plans (CLUPs) and

Comprehensive Development Plans (CDPs) to the more particular Disaster Risk

Reduction Management Plans (DRRMP) and Contingency Plans (CP). The presence of
 138138

such documents at LGUs is an indicator of beneficial collaborative governance with civil

society as these Plans are supposed to be formulated through cooperation of all levels of

government, all line departments in local governments, NGOs, people’s organizations

and National Governments Agencies (NGAs). The related NGAs such as the National

Economic Development Authority (NEDA), Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board

(HLURB) and the Provincial Government should extend their assistance to Local

Government Units in the systematic formulation of these planning documents to define

and identify concrete, reliable and sustainable programs and projects necessary for further

development. Those identified programs and projects distinguished as well planned and

officially formulated should naturally be supported in terms of organizational and

financial assistance by implementing NGAs such as Department of Public Works and

Highways (DPWH), Department of Education (DepEd), Department of Health (DoH),

Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) as well as the Provincial

Government.

The systematic and collaborative formulation and implementation of various

local-level plans and studies such as disaster risk assessment, disaster risk reduction

management plans, comprehensive land use planning and comprehensive development

planning, local shelter plan, along with other related policies, programs and projects are

all matters of collaborative governance. It is thus recommended that government and

non-government agencies and organizations, including institutions of higher education,

work together to enhance the institutional capacity of the Philippine administrative

system directly challenged by adverse impacts of climate change.

 139139

Areas of Future Research

There are numerous areas for future research when it pertains to disaster risk

reduction and climate change adaptations. This study proposes a few succeeding items as

subjects of future research to support, modify or validate the findings stated here. This

includes the development of disaster risks assessment methodology, assessment of state

of local planning system, climate change impacts on various communities and assessment

of factors contributing to the rapid growth of informal settlement in the province of

Bulacan.

State of Local Planning System Assessment

The research for the state of local planning system could provide information on

how plans are evolving in its actuality concerning not just the LGUs from the province of

Bulacan but as well as from the other parts in the country. From the decentralization

approach provided by the RA 7160 (Local Government Code 1991), it can be worth

examining how local governments are faring regarding their compliance with the

mandates on the preparation of Comprehensive Land Use Plans (CLUP), Comprehensive

Development Plans (CDP) and other required development plans.

Going back to the findings of this study, the plan period of CLUPs for both

subject municipalities has lapsed and both have been revising its plan since then.

However the period for approval of their new CLUPs is currently counting years. This is

an indication of presence of issues surrounding the preparation, approval and

implementation of mandated local land use and development plans. Detailed research

can be started to enumerate hindering factors that affect the progress or acceleration of

land use and development planning system at all stages.

 140140

Studying and evaluating the level of implementation of various zoning laws may

also be considered as another research subject. This includes the realization of Zoning

Ordinances, the Water Code of the Philippines and how the government is managing

decision zones where there are built-up areas supposedly zoned as open agricultural or

locally protected areas.

Development of Comprehensive DRA-CCVA methodology

As this study employed the Disaster Risk Assessment and Climate Change

Vulnerability Assessment based on the methodology prescribed by Mainstreaming

Guidelines in Integrating DRR-CCA in Local Development and Land Use Plans, there

may be other procedures that can be more comprehensive in nature yet simple to use.

This type of assessment methodology should be developed based on the Philippine

setting in the reality issues surrounding socio-political contexts. It might be even better if

the localized process for community-based hazard mapping would be included in the

development of such assessment tool.

Climate Change Impact on Various Sectors of Local Communities

There may be no standardized climate change impact assessment available or

operable at the present and the sectoral vulnerability assessment from the DRR-CCVA

Report of Bulacan PDPFP is not as useful to the barangays, municipalities and cities in

their planning process as it is presented from the provincial level perspective. Timely

research subject regarding climate change is the assessment of its impact to various

sectors on agriculture, fishery, forestry, coastal and marginalized population from the

selected cluster of barangays in the province. Such study could utilize indicators

previously recommended by existing tools and assigning weights in each indicator to

 141141

evaluate the current level vulnerability, especially for the exposed population. The

impact assessment may be thoroughly designed by the researchers of such studies to

validate the climate change impact reported in the Philippines.

Factors Contributing to the Rapid Growth of Informal Settlements

With regards to the socio-economic aspect of this study, it is likewise important to

systematically determine why and how informal settlements have grown in the identified

districts in the province. This causal type of research can be done alongside assessment of

their vulnerability to various hazards. Other components that could be considered

include the swiftness of growth, historical changes, as well as people’s origins and other

influences that had stimulate such growth. This could be beneficial to the local

governments to achieve the capacity on management or prevention of sprawl of informal

settlements.
 142142

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 143143

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 144144

ANNEXES

Annex A. GUIDE QUESTIONS

For MPDO/MDRRMO/MSWDO, Barangay Officials and Key Informants Interview

1. Sainyongpagkakaalam, anu-anongpagbabagosalupa o sapag-

gamitnglupanaangnangyarisainyonglugarlalonghigitsamgalugarnamalapitsailog
Angat?

2. Alinsamgaitoang dating lupangsakahan o lupangtiwangwangnangayon ay

nagging tirahannangmgatao o tinayuanngmgaestablisimiyento?

3. Anu-anongmgabagayangsapalagayninyoangnagdulotngmgaganitongpagbabago?

4. Bataysainyongkaalaman, anu-anongkalamidadnaangnaranasannginyonglugar at
anopoang nagging epektonitosainyo at doonsamgataongnasatabing-ilog?

5. Sainyo bang palagay ay malakiba angkinalamanng mga nabanggit napagbabago

sa lupa sa mga sakunangito? Bakit?

6. Anu-ano ang maimumungkahing paraan upang ang mga ganitong sakuna ay

hindi na maulit pa o mabawasan man lamang ang peligrong dulot nito?

Forrandom residents at the riverfront communities – in parallel to the study of housing

and health vulnerability issues)

Pangalan:
Edad:

1. Anu-
anopoangmgakaraniwangsakitanginyonangnaranasansapaninirahansabaybayinngil
ogAngat?

2. Bukodsaproblemang pang kalusugan, ano pa

angilangproblemangkinakaharapninyosapaninirahansabaybayinngilog?

3. Anu-anong kalamidad na ang naranasanninyo sa paninirahan sa tabi ng ilog?

4. Ilang beses sa isang taon kayo nakakaranas ng pagtaas ng tubig/pag-baha?

5. Ano po ang inyong ginagawa kapag may kalamidad o pagbaha?

 145145

6. Anu-anong paghahanda ang inyong ginagawa kapag may paparating na bagyo o

kalamidad?

7. Ilang plastic bag ang naiipon ninyong basura sa loob ng isang araw?

8. Saan ninyo ng itinatapon ang inyong basura?

9. Saan kayo kumukuha ng tubig inumin?

10. Ano pong sakit mula sa tubig inumin ang inyong naranasan na?

11. May sarili ba kayong palikuran/CR sa loob ng bahay ninyo?

12. Anu-anong programa ng gobyerno ang inyo nang nasalihan?

13. Saan yari ang inyong bahay?

14. Anu ang kadalasang ulam ninyo sa:

a. Almusal______________
b. Tanghalian____________
c. Hapunan ______________

15. May merienda ba kayo sa:

a. Umaga: _______
b. Hapon: _______
16. Gaano kayo kadalas kumain ng prutas sa isang araw?

17. Anu ang pinaka-mataas na pinagtapusan ninyong magasawa:

a. Babae: ____________________b. Lalake: ____________________

18. Ano ang inyong trabaho mag-asawa:

a. Babae _________________b. Lalake _________________

19. Gaano kadalas ka o ang iyong asawa/kinakasama magpa-check up noong

nagbubuntis?

20. Ilan ang anak ninyo?

21. Nabakunahan ba ang iyong anak noong sila ay sanggol?

22. Hanggang ilang taon sila nabakunahan?

 146146

Annex B. LAWS AND REGULATIONS ON DEVELOPMENT PLANNING,

LAND USE, DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION

REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES CONSTITUTION - 1987

ARTICLE II -Section 4. The prime duty of the Government is to serve and protect the

people.

ARTICLE II -Section 9. The State shall promote a just and dynamic social order that

will ensure the prosperity and independence of the nation and free the people from

poverty through policies that provide adequate social services, promote full employment,

a rising standard of living, and an improved quality of life for all.

ARTICLE II -Section 16. The State shall protect and advance the right of the people to

a balanced and healthful ecology in accord with the rhythm and harmony of nature.

ARTICLE XII -Section 6. The use of property bears a social function, and all economic

agents shall contribute to the common good. Individuals and private groups, including

corporations, cooperatives, and similar collective organizations, shall have the right to

own, establish, and operate economic enterprises, subject to the duty of the State to

promote distributive justice and to intervene when the common good so demands.

ARTICLE XIII-Section 1. The Congress shall give highest priority to the enactment of

measures that protect and enhance the right of all the people to human dignity, reduce

social, economic, and political inequalities, and remove cultural inequities by equitably

diffusing wealth and political power for the common good.

PRESIDENTIAL DECREE 1067 – WATER CODE OF THE PHILIPPINES 1976

 147147

ARTICLE 51. The banks of rivers and streams and the shores of the seas and lakes

throughout their entire length and within a zone of three (3) meters in urban areas, twenty

(20) meters in agricultural areas and forty (40) meters in forest areas, along their margins

are subject to the easement of public use in the interest of recreation, navigation, floatage,

fishing and salvage. No person shall be allowed to stay in this zone longer than what is

necessary for recreation, navigation, floatage, fishing or salvage or to build structures of

any kind.

REPUBLIC ACT 7160 - LOCAL GOVERNMENT CODE OF 1991

Section 3.(i) Local government units shall share with the national government the

responsibility in the management and maintenance of ecological balance within their

territorial jurisdiction, subject to the provisions of this Code and national policies;

Section 16. General Welfare. - Every local government unit shall exercise the powers

expressly granted, those necessarily implied therefrom, as well as powers necessary,

appropriate, or incidental for its efficient and effective governance, and those which are

essential to the promotion of the general welfare. Within their respective territorial

jurisdictions, local government units shall ensure and support, among other things, the

preservation and enrichment of culture, promote health and safety, enhance the right of

the people to a balanced ecology, encourage and support the development of appropriate

and self-reliant scientific and technological capabilities, improve public morals, enhance

economic prosperity and social justice, promote full employment among their residents,

maintain peace and order, and preserve the comfort and convenience of their inhabitants.

Section 20. (c)The local government units shall, in conformity with existing laws,

continue to prepare their respective comprehensive land use plans enacted through
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zoning ordinances which shall be the primary and dominant bases for the future use of

land resources: Provided. That the requirements for food production, human settlements,

and industrial expansion shall be taken into consideration in the preparation of such

plans.

Section 106. (a) Each local government unit shall have a comprehensive multi-sectoral

development plan to be initiated by its development council and approved by its

sanggunian. For this purpose, the development council at the provincial, city, municipal,

or barangay level, shall assist the corresponding sanggunian in setting the direction of

economic and social development, and coordinating development efforts within its

territorial jurisdiction.

REPUBLIC ACT 10121 - PHILIPPINE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND

MANAGEMENT ACT OF 2010.
Section 2. (a) Uphold the people's constitutional rights to life and property by addressing

the root causes of vulnerabilities to disasters, strengthening the country's institutional

capacity for disaster risk reduction and management and building the resilience of local

communities to disasters including climate change impacts;

(b) Adhere to and adopt the universal norms, principles and standards of humanitarian

assistance and the global effort on risk reduction as concrete expression of the country's

commitment to overcome human sufferings due to recurring disasters;

(c) Incorporate internationally accepted principles of disaster risk management in the

creation and implementation of national, regional and local sustainable development and

poverty reduction strategies, policies, plans and budgets;

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(d) Adopt a disaster risk reduction and management approach that is holistic,

comprehensive, integrated, and proactive in lessening the socioeconomic and

environmental impacts of disasters including climate change, and promote the

involvement and participation of all sectors and all stakeholders concerned, at all levels,

especially the local community;

(e) Develop, promote, and implement a comprehensive National Disaster Risk Reduction

and Management Plan (NDRRMP) that aims to strengthen the capacity of the national

government and the local government units (LGUs), together with partner stakeholders,

to build the disaster resilience of communities, and' to institutionalize arrangements and

measures for reducing disaster risks, including projected climate risks, and enhancing

disaster preparedness and response capabilities at all levels;

(f) Adopt and implement a coherent, comprehensive, integrated, efficient and responsive

disaster risk reduction program incorporated in the development plan at various levels of

government adhering to the principles of good governance such as transparency and

accountability within the context of poverty alleviation and environmental protection;

(g) Mainstream disaster risk reduction and climate change in development processes such

as policy formulation, socioeconomic development planning, budgeting, and governance,

particularly in the areas of environment, agriculture, water, energy, health, education,

poverty reduction, land-use and urban planning, and public infrastructure and housing,

among others;

(h) Institutionalize the policies, structures, coordination mechanisms and programs with

continuing budget appropriation on disaster risk reduction from national down to local

levels towards building a disaster-resilient nation and communities;

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(i) Mainstream disaster risk reduction into the peace process and conflict resolution

approaches in order to minimize loss of lives and damage to property, and ensure that

communities in conflict zones can immediately go back to their normal lives during

periods of intermittent conflicts;

(j) Ensure that disaster risk reduction and climate change measures are gender responsive,

sensitive to indigenous know ledge systems, and respectful of human rights;

(k) Recognize the local risk patterns across the country and strengthen the capacity of

LGUs for disaster risk reduction and management through decentralized powers,

responsibilities, and resources at the regional and local levels;

(l) Recognize and strengthen the capacities of LGUs and communities in mitigating and

preparing for, responding to, and recovering from the impact of disasters;

(m) Engage the participation of civil society organizations (CSOs), the private sector and

volunteers in the government's disaster risk reduction programs towards complementation

of resources and effective delivery of services to the Citizenry;

(n) Develop and strengthen the capacities of vulnerable and marginalized groups to

mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from the effects of disasters;

(o) Enhance and implement a program where humanitarian aid workers, communities,

health professionals, government aid agencies, donors, and the media are educated and

trained on how they can actively support breastfeeding before and during a disaster

and/or an emergency; and

(p) Provide maximum care, assistance and services to individuals and families affected

by disaster, implement emergency rehabilitation projects to lessen the impact of disaster,

and facilitate resumption of normal social and economic activities.

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REPUBLIC ACT 9729 - CLIMATE CHANGE ACT OF 2009

Section 2. It is the policy of the State to afford full protection and the advancement of

the right of the people to a healthful ecology in accord with the rhythm and harmony of

nature. In this light, the State has adopted the Philippine Agenda 21 framework which

espouses sustainable development, to fulfill human needs while maintaining the quality

of the natural environment for current and future generations.

Towards this end, the State adopts the principle of protecting the climate system for the

benefit of humankind, on the basis of climate justice or common but differentiated

responsibilities and the Precautionary Principle to guide decision-making in climate risk

management. As a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change, the State adopts the ultimate objective of the Convention which is the

stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would

prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system which should be

achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate

change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic

development to proceed in a sustainable manner.As a party to the Hyogo Framework for

Action, the State likewise adopts the strategic goals in order to build national and local

resilience to climate change-related disasters.

Recognizing the vulnerability of the Philippine archipelago and its local communities,

particularly the poor, women, and children, to potential dangerous consequences of

climate change such as rising seas, changing landscapes, increasing frequency and/or

severity of droughts, fires, floods and storms, climate-related illnesses and diseases,

damage to ecosystems, biodiversity loss that affect the country’s environment, culture,
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and economy, the State shall cooperate with the global community in the resolution of

climate change issues, including disaster risk reduction. It shall be the policy of the State

to enjoin the participation of national and local governments, businesses, nongovernment

organizations, local communities and the public to prevent and reduce the adverse

impacts of climate change and, at the same time, maximize the benefits of climate

change. It shall also be the policy of the State to incorporate a gender-sensitive, pro-

children and pro-poor perspective in all climate change and renewable energy efforts,

plans and programs. In view thereof, the State shall strengthen, integrate, consolidate and

institutionalize government initiatives to achieve coordination in the implementation of

plans and programs to address climate change in the context of sustainable development.

Further recognizing that climate change and disaster risk reduction are closely

interrelated and effective disaster risk reduction will enhance climate change adaptive

capacity, the State shall integrate disaster risk reduction into climate change programs

and initiatives.

REPUBLIC ACT 9003 - ECOLOGICAL SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT ACT

OF 2000
Section 2. (a) Ensure the protection of the public health and environment;

(b) Utilize environmentally-sound methods that maximize the utilization of valuable

resources and encourage resource conservation and recovery;

(c) Set guidelines and targets for solid waste avoidance and volume reduction through

source reduction and waste minimization measures, including composting, recycling, re-

use, recovery, green charcoal process, and others, before collection, treatment and
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disposal in appropriate and environmentally sound solid waste management facilities in

accordance with ecologically sustainable development principles;

(d) Ensure the proper segregation, collection, transport, storage, treatment and disposal of

solid waste through the formulation and adoption of the best environmental practice in

ecological waste management excluding incineration;

(g) Retain primary enforcement and responsibility of solid waste management with local

government units while establishing a cooperative effort among the national government,

other local government units, non- government organizations, and the private sector;

(h) Encourage cooperation and self-regulation among waste generators through the

application of market-based instruments;

(i) Institutionalize public participation in the development and implementation of national

and local integrated, comprehensive, and ecological waste management programs; and

(j) Strength the integration of ecological solid waste management and resource

conservation and recovery topics into the academic curricula of formal and non-formal

education in order to promote environmental awareness and action among the citizenry.

EXECUTIVE ORDER 09 SERIES OF 2012 BY PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT

OF BULACAN ORDERING THE RELOCATION/ TRANSFER OF RESIDENTS
AND/OR COMMUNITIES LIVING WITHIN OR NEAR RIVERBANKS,
STREAMS, WATERWAYS, OR CANALS, TORRENTS AND AREAS PRONE TO
LANDSLIDES, MUDSLIDES, AND LOW LYING COMMUNITIES CLASSIFEID
AS MULTI-HAZARD ZONE IN THE PROVINCE OF BULACAN AND
CREATING A TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP FOR SUCH PURPOSE
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