BI Monetary Policy Review-June 2022
BI Monetary Policy Review-June 2022
BI Monetary Policy Review-June 2022
REVIEW
June 2022
Foreword
DESTRY DAMAYANTI
Senior Deputy Governor
JUDA AGUNG
Deputy Governor
AIDA S. BUDIMAN
Deputy Governor
i • June 2022
Table of Content
• June 2022 ii
Executive Summary
The global economy is blighted by persistently high payment system digitalisation to strengthen the economic
inflation amid lower growth projections. At home, the and financial ecosystem and support economic recovery.
domestic economic improvements remain intact on the
The BI Board of Governors Meeting agreed on 22nd and
back of growing domestic demand amid persistently solid
23rd June 2022 to hold the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate
exports. Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (BOP) remains
(BI7DRR) at 3.50%, while also maintaining the Deposit
solid, thereby supporting external sector resilience. The
Facility (DF) rates at 2.75% and Lending Facility (LF) rates
Rupiah is confronted by escalating depreciatory pressures
at 4.25%. The decision is consistent with the need to
in line with other regional currencies due to elevated
manage inflation and maintain exchange rate stability,
global financial market uncertainty. Domestic inflation is
while continuing to foster economic growth amid
rising due to intense supply-side pressures as a corollary
escalating external pressures stemming from the
of higher international commodity prices. Bank Indonesia
emerging risk of stagflation in several countries. Moving
continues to normalise liquidity policy by raising Rupiah
forward, global economic uncertainty is expected to
reserve requirements incrementally without disrupting
remain elevated given the looming risk of an economic
liquidity conditions in the banking industry. The banking
downturn and persistently high global inflation, including
industry continues to lower interest rates in line with
the expansion of inward-looking policies, particularly
lower credit risk. Financial system resilience remains solid,
affecting food, in a number of countries.
accompanied by a gradual revival of the bank
intermediation function. Bank Indonesia is accelerating
1 Quarter I 2021
CHAPTER 1
• June 2022 2
sectors, such as the manufacturing industry, trade and monitor forex supply and strengthen Rupiah stabilisation
construction, which continue to improve. Moving policy in line with market mechanisms and economic
forward, Bank Indonesia expects the domestic economic fundamentals, thereby supporting efforts to manage
recovery to endure, supported by increasing mobility, inflation and maintain macroeconomic stability.
sources of finance and business activity, and accompanied
Domestic inflation is rising due to intense supply-side
by solid export performance. Therefore, the economic
pressures as a corollary of higher international
growth in 2022 is expected to remain in line with Bank
commodity prices. In May 2022, the Consumer Price
Indonesia's own projection at 4.5-5.3%.
Index (CPI) recorded 0.40% (mtm) inflation of 3.55% (yoy),
Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (BOP) remains solid, up from 3.47% (yoy) one month earlier, edged upwards
thereby supporting external sector resilience. The by international commodity prices. Core inflation remains
current account is expected to maintain a surplus in the under control at 2.58% (yoy) amid growing domestic
second quarter of 2022, continued surplus achievement demand and policy consistency by Bank Indonesia to
from the previous period. This achievement is buoyed by anchor inflation expectations. Meanwhile, volatile food
a positive trade balance in line with strong exports of (VF) inflation has increased, primarily influenced by higher
most major commodities and despite a larger services global food prices and supply-side constraints caused by
trade deficit as more outbound Indonesian travellers visit inclement weather. Inflationary pressures on
abroad. Meanwhile, foreign capital inflows to domestic administered prices (AP) remain high, impacted by
financial markets booked a net inflow totalling USD1.5 airfares and energy prices. Looking ahead, CPI inflation is
billion in the second quarter of 2022 (as of 21 st June expected to increase on the back of global energy and
2022), undeterred by increasing global financial market food prices. In 2022, therefore, headline inflation is
uncertainty. The position of reserve assets at the end of predicted to exceed the target corridor slightly before
May 2022 stood at USD135.6 billion, equivalent to 6.8 returning to 3.0%±1% in 2023. Bank Indonesia will remain
months of imports or 6.6 months of imports and servicing vigilant of inflationary pressures moving forward and their
government external debt, which is well above the 3 impact on inflation expectations, and is prepared to
months international adequacy standard. BOP adjust interest rates if signs of higher core inflation are
performance in 2022 will be maintained in line with a low detected. Furthermore, Bank Indonesia will also
current account deficit (0.5-1.3% of GDP), primarily strengthen policy coordination with the Government
supported by persistently high international commodity through national and regional inflation control teams
prices. Furthermore, a positive yet lower than previously (TPIP and TPID).
projected capital and financial account will also support
Bank Indonesia continues to normalise liquidity policy by
BOP performance in 2022, amid strong foreign direct
raising Rupiah reserve requirements incrementally
investment (FDI) in response to the propitious domestic
without disrupting liquidity conditions in the banking
investment climate.
industry. The initial phase of higher Rupiah reserve
The Rupiah is confronted by escalating depreciatory requirements and RR incentives, introduced on 1st March
pressures in line with other regional currencies due to 2022, has absorbed approximately Rp119 trillion of
elevated global financial market uncertainty. As of 22nd liquidity in the banking industry without eroding the
June 2022, the Rupiah depreciated 1.93% (ptp) on the banks' ability to disburse loans/financing to the corporate
level recorded at the end of May 2022, spurred by sector or purchase SBN to fund the State Revenue and
increasing global financial market uncertainty given more Expenditure Budget (APBN). In May 2022, the ratio of
aggressive monetary policy tightening in several countries liquid assets to third-party funds remained high at
in response to an uptick of inflationary pressures and 30.80%, thus supporting the banking industry's ability to
concerns stoked by global economic moderation. disburse loans. Bank Indonesia increased the Rupiah RR
Meanwhile, the domestic supply of foreign exchange has incentives in June 2022, demonstrating support for bank
been maintained and the perception of Indonesia's loans/financing to priority and inclusive sectors.
economic outlook remains positive. Consequently, the Meanwhile, through fiscal-monetary coordination in
Rupiah as of 22nd June 2022, experienced 4.14% (ytd) accordance with the Joint Decree of the Minister of
depreciation on the level recorded at the end of 2021, Finance and Governor of Bank Indonesia, effective until
which is nevertheless relatively lower than the currency 31st December 2022, Bank Indonesia has continued to
depreciation experienced in other developing countries, purchase SBN in the primary market to fund the national
such as India (5.17%), Malaysia (5.44%) and Thailand economic recovery as part of the State Budget in 2022
(5.84%). Moving forward, Bank Indonesia will continue to totalling Rp32.54 trillion (as of 22nd June 2022) via primary
3 • June 2022
auction, greenshoe options and private placement. In strengthening synergy with the Government, other
May 2022, liquidity in the economy remained ample, as authorities and the business community to accelerate the
reflected by narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2) intermediation recovery and strengthen economic
aggregates, which grew 18.37% (yoy) and 12.15 % (yoy) recovery momentum.
respectively.
Bank Indonesia is accelerating payment system
The banking industry continues to reduce interest rates digitalisation to strengthen the economic and financial
in line with lower credit risk. In the markets, the IndONIA ecosystem and support economic recovery. Digital
rate was fairly stable in May 2022 at 2.79% compared economic and financial transactions are developing
with conditions in May 2021, while the 1-month deposit rapidly in line with greater public acceptance and growing
rate fell 75bps from May 2021 to 2.86% in May 2022. In public preference towards online retail as well as the
the credit market, the banking industry lowered lending expansion and convenience of digital payments and
rates by 52bps in the same period as risk perception digital banking. The value of electronic money
continued to improve. Nevertheless, Bank Indonesia still transactions grew 35.25% (yoy) in May 2022 to reach
acknowledges a further opportunity for the banking Rp32 trillion and the value of digital banking transactions
industry to increase lending/financing, including through climbed 20.82% (yoy) in the same period to reach
lower lending rates, to hasten the national economic Rp3,766.7 trillion. Meanwhile, the value of ATM card,
recovery. debit card and credit card transactions expanded 5.43%
(yoy) to Rp630.9 trillion. Seeking to nurture payment
Financial system resilience remains solid, accompanied
system innovation, Bank Indonesia will continue to
by a gradual revival of the bank intermediation function.
implement the National Open API Payment Standard
The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) in the banking industry
(SNAP), particularly for first mover payment service
remained high in April 2022 at 24.28%, with persistently
providers (PSP). In addition, Bank Indonesia is
low NPL ratios of 3% (gross) and 0.83% (nett). Bank
collaborating with the Coordinating Ministry for Economic
intermediation continued to improve in May 2022, with
Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia and relevant
deposit growth recorded at 9.93% (yoy) and credit growth
associations to host the Indonesia Digital Economy and
at 9.03% (yoy), affecting all bank groups as well as most
Finance Festival (FEKDI) 2022 as a concrete measure
economic sectors, particularly corporate and MSME loans,
towards digital economic and financial ecosystem
as corporate and household activity gained recovery
integration, which is a side event of G20 series
momentum. On the supply side, the banking industry
showcasing various digital initiatives and innovations in
relaxed lending standards, primarily in the trade,
Indonesia. In terms of cash, currency in circulation
manufacturing and agricultural sectors in line with lower
expanded 8.97% (yoy) in May 2022 to reach Rp927.6
credit risk perception. On the demand side, the corporate
trillion. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia continues to ensure
recovery remains intact, as confirmed by improving sales,
the availability of quality Rupiah currency fit for
thus increasing demand for bank funding, repayment
circulation throughout the territory of the Republic of
capacity and capital expenditures (CapEx). In addition,
Indonesia, including institutional cooperation to distribute
MSME loan growth accelerated to 16.97% (yoy) in May
Rupiah banknotes and coins to 3T (outlying, frontier,
2022. Bank Indonesia urges the banking industry to
remote) regions.
increase lending to priority and inclusive sectors, while
• June 2022 4
CHAPTER 2
5 • June 2022
the six priority agendas in the Finance Track of teams (TPIP and TPID) to manage inflationary pressures
Indonesia's G20 Presidency in 2022. on the supply side and bolster production. Furthermore,
Bank Indonesia continues to build monetary and fiscal
Bank Indonesia continues to monitor the risks associated
policy coordination with the Government to maintain
with inflationary pressures moving forward, including
macroeconomic stability and support the national
inflation expectations and their impact on core inflation,
economic recovery process. Similarly, coordination under
while implementing monetary policy normalisation
the auspices of the Financial System Stability Committee
measures based on current data and dynamic conditions.
as well as bilateral coordination between Bank Indonesia
Bank Indonesia is also strengthening coordination with and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) are
the central and regional governments as well as relevant continuously strengthened to maintain financial system
institutions through national and regional inflation control stability.
• June 2022 6
The global economy is blighted by persistently high inflation amid lower growth projections
Global GDP Growth Global PMI
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022*
7 • June 2022
Global Uncertainty Index 10 Yr UST & JGB Yield and DJIA Index
The domestic economic improvements remain intact on the back of growing domestic
demand amid persistently solid exports
Economic Growth - Expenditure Side Economic Growth – Economic Sectors Side
2020 2021 2022
2020 2021 2022 Components 2020 2021
Components 2020 2021 I II III IV I II III IV I
I II III IV I II III IV I Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries 0.02 2.20 2.17 2.63 1.77 3.44 0.53 1.43 2.28 1.84 1.16
Mining and excavation 0.45 -2.72 -4.28 -1.20 -1.95 -2.02 5.22 7.78 5.15 4.00 3.82
Household Consumption 2.83 -5.51 -4.05 -3.61 -2.63 -2.21 5.96 1.02 3.55 2.02 4.34 Manufacture 2.06 -6.18 -4.34 -3.14 -2.93 -1.38 6.58 3.68 4.92 3.39 5.07
Electricity and Gas Procurement 3.85 -5.46 -2.44 -5.01 -2.34 1.68 9.09 3.85 7.81 5.55 7.04
Non-Profit Institution Serving Water Supply 4.38 4.44 5.94 4.98 4.94 5.46 5.78 4.56 4.14 4.97 1.29
-5.09 -7.76 -1.97 -2.14 -4.29 -3.69 3.99 2.79 3.29 1.59 5.98
Household (NPISH) Consumption Construction 2.90 -5.39 -4.52 -5.67 -3.26 -0.79 4.42 3.84 3.91 2.81 4.83
Wholesale Retail, Car and Motorcycle Repairs 1.50 -7.67 -5.13 -3.66 -3.78 -1.26 9.52 5.15 5.56 4.65 5.71
Government Consumption 3.75 -6.90 9.76 1.76 1.94 2.55 8.06 0.62 5.25 4.17 -7.74 Transportation and Warehousing 1.27 -30.78 -16.71 -13.42 -15.05 -13.09 25.10 -0.72 7.93 3.24 15.79
Provision of Accomodation, Food and Beverages 1.92 -22.01 -11.86 -8.91 -10.26 -7.27 21.58 -0.14 4.95 3.89 6.56
Investment (GFCF) 1.70 -8.61 -6.48 -6.15 -4.95 -0.21 7.52 3.76 4.49 3.80 4.09 Information and Communication 9.82 10.85 10.72 10.99 10.61 8.72 6.90 5.54 6.21 6.81 7.14
Financial Services and Insurance 10.63 1.06 -0.95 2.37 3.25 -2.97 8.33 4.29 -2.59 1.56 1.64
Building Investment 2.76 -5.26 -5.60 -6.63 -3.78 -0.74 4.36 3.36 2.48 2.32 2.58 Real Estate 3.81 2.31 1.96 1.25 2.32 0.94 2.82 3.42 3.94 2.78 3.78
NonBuilding Investment -1.46 -18.62 -8.99 -4.71 -8.38 1.44 18.50 4.96 10.40 8.42 8.66 Corporate Services 5.39 -12.09 -7.61 -7.02 -5.44 -6.10 9.94 -0.59 0.89 0.73 5.96
Government Administration, Defence and Compulsory Social Security 3.16 -3.21 1.81 -1.55 -0.03 -2.26 9.95 -9.95 0.98 -0.33 -1.45
Exports 0.23 -11.66 -11.66 -7.21 -7.70 6.94 31.50 29.16 29.83 24.04 16.22 Education Services 5.86 1.18 2.38 1.33 2.61 -1.54 5.89 -4.42 0.70 0.11 -1.70
Imports -2.19 -16.96 -23.00 -13.52 -14.71 4.41 31.84 29.95 29.60 23.31 15.03 Health Services and Other Social Activities 10.33 3.67 15.26 16.53 11.56 3.39 11.69 14.06 12.16 10.46 4.38
Other Services 7.09 -12.60 -5.55 -4.84 -4.10 -5.15 11.97 -0.30 3.35 2.12 8.24
GDP 2.97 -5.32 -3.49 -2.19 -2.07 -0.70 7.07 3.51 5.02 3.69 5.01 GDP 2.97 -5.32 -3.49 -2.17 -2.07 -0.70 7.07 3.51 5.02 3.69 5.01
• June 2022 8
Growth of Regional Economic (GDRP) of the First Quarter of Consumer Expectation Index
2022
9 • June 2022
Realization of State Budget (APBN) Non-oil and Gas Exports
2020 2021 2022
Realization
Realization
ITEMS Realization % Realization Budget as of December Budget
as of April 2022
(IDR Trillion) PERPRES 72 (IDR Trillion) 2021 (IDR Trillion)
(IDR Trillion)
(IDR Trillion)
A. State Income and Grants 1,647.8 96.9% 1,743.6 2,009.6 1,846.1 853.5
I. Domestic Income 1,629.0 95.9% 1,742.7 2,005.1 1,845.6 853.4
1. Tax Income 1,285.1 91.5% 1,444.5 1,546.8 1,510.0 676.1
2. NonTax Income 343.8 116.9% 298.2 458.3 335.6 177.3
II. Grant 18.8 1448.7% 0.9 4.5 0.6 0.1
B. State Expenditures 2,595.5 94.8% 2,750.0 2,773.6 2,714.2 750.5
I. Central Government Expenditures 1,833.0 92.8% 1,954.5 1,987.9 1,944.5 508.0
1. Employee Spending 380.5 94.3% 421.1 387.7 426.5 139.9
2. Spending for Goods 422.3 154.6% 362.5 529.6 339.7 77.1
3. Capital Expenditures 190.9 139.0% 246.8 228.6 199.2 33.4
4. Payment of Debt Obligations 314.1 92.7% 373.3 343.5 405.9 117.8
5. Subsidies 196.2 102.2% 175.4 241.0 207.0 56.6
6. Grant Expenditure 6.3 123.7% 6.8 4.3 4.8 0.7
7. Social Assistance 202.5 116.1% 161.4 173.6 147.4 62.2
8. Other Expenditures 120.0 26.6% 207.3 79.5 214.0 20.4
II. Transfer to Regions and Village Funds 762.5 99.8% 795.5 785.7 769.6 242.4
1. Transfer to Regions 691.4 99.8% 723.5 713.9 701.6 220.1
2. Village Funds 71.1 99.9% 72.0 71.9 68.0 22.3
C. Primary Balance (633.6) (633.1) (420.5) (462.2) 220.9
D. Budget Surplus/Deficit (947.7) (1,006.4) (764.0) (868.0) 103.1
Surplus/Deficit (%GDP) (6.1) (5.7) (4.5) (4.9) 0.5
Non-Oil and Gas Exports to Main Destination Countries Regional Non-oil and Gas Exports
• June 2022 10
Import of Construction Goods
Indonesia's Balance of Payments (BOP) remains solid, thereby supporting external sector
resilience, and the Rupiah succumbed to depreciatory pressures in line with other regional
currencies as global financial market uncertainty increased
Indonesia’s Balance of Payments Trade Balance
Items (Billion USD) 2020 2021* 2022
2019
I II III IV Total I II III IV Total I**
Current Account -30.3 -3.4 -2.9 1.0 0.9 -4.4 -1.1 -1.9 5.0 1.5 3.4 0.2
A. Goods 3.5 4.6 4.0 9.8 10.0 28.3 7.6 8.3 15.4 12.4 43.8 11.1
- Exports, fob 168.5 41.8 34.6 40.8 46.2 163.4 49.4 54.3 61.7 67.5 232.8 66.8
- Imports, fob -164.9 -37.2 -30.7 -31.0 -36.2 -135.1 -41.7 -46.0 -46.2 -55.1 -189.0 -55.6
a. Non-Oil and Gas 12.0 5.9 3.3 9.4 11.3 30.0 10.0 11.6 18.1 18.1 57.8 17.2
b. Oil and Gas -10.3 -2.6 -0.8 -0.7 -1.2 -5.4 -2.3 -3.1 -2.5 -5.0 -13.0 -5.9
B. Services -7.6 -1.7 -2.1 -2.8 -3.1 -9.8 -3.4 -3.7 -3.6 -4.0 -14.7 -4.4
C. Primary Income -33.8 -7.9 -6.2 -7.4 -7.4 -28.9 -6.8 -8.0 -8.3 -8.9 -32.0 -8.0
D. Secondary Income 7.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 5.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.9 6.3 1.5
Capital and Financial Account 36.60 -3.00 10.99 0.86 -0.93 7.92 5.76 1.68 6.73 -2.19 11.97 -1.70
1. Direct Investment 20.5 4.3 4.5 1.0 4.4 14.1 4.5 5.4 3.2 3.8 16.9 4.5
2. Portfolio Investment 22.0 -6.3 9.7 -2.0 2.0 3.4 4.9 4.0 1.2 -5.0 5.1 -2.9
3. Other Investment -6.1 -0.6 -3.4 1.8 -7.5 -9.6 -3.7 -7.7 2.1 -1.0 -10.4 -3.4
Overall Balance 4.7 -8.5 9.2 2.1 -0.2 2.6 4.1 -0.4 10.7 -0.8 13.5 -1.8
Memorandum :
- Reserve Assets Position 129.2 121.0 131.7 135.2 135.9 135.9 137.1 137.1 146.9 144.9 144.9 139.1
In Months of Imports & Official Debt Repayment 7.3 7.0 8.1 9.1 9.8 9.8 9.7 8.8 8.6 7.8 7.8 7.0
- Current Account (% GDP) -2.71 -1.22 -1.19 0.38 0.31 -0.42 -0.39 -0.67 1.65 0.47 0.29 0.07
11 • June 2022
Rupiah vs Peer Countries Peers Country Interest Rate Policies
Bank Indonesia continues to normalise liquidity policy without disrupting liquidity conditions in
the banking industry while financial system resilience remains solid, accompanied by a gradual
revival of the bank intermediation function
SBN Purchases by Bank Indonesia for State Budget Financing Ratio of Liquid Assets to Deposits
• June 2022 12
Money Supply Policy Rate (BI7DRR) and Overnight Interbank Rate
Banking Interest Rates Policy Rate (BI7DRR) Transmission to Prime Lending Rate (PLR)
13 • June 2022
Credit Risk (NPL) Credit and Deposit Developments
Bank Indonesia is accelerating payment system digitalisation to strengthen the economic and
financial ecosystem and support economic recovery
Electronic Money Transactions Value Digital Banking Transactions Value
• June 2022 14
ATM/Debit and Credit Card Transactions Currency in Circulation
15 • June 2022
• November 2021 16