State of the Climate

in Africa
2020
WEATHER CLIMATE WATER

WMO-No. 1275
WMO-No. 1275
© World Meteorological Organization, 2020
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Contents
FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Key messages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Global climate context in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

Temperature in Africa in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Sea level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Mountain glaciers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

Precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Key Hydrological features in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Drivers of observed climate variations in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Dipole Mode Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Box 1. Anticipatory action to mitigate potential impacts of El Niño–Southern

Oscillation on agriculture in Africa 16

High-impact events in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Central Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Southern Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

South-western Indian Ocean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Climate-related risks and socioeconomic impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Food security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

East Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Box 2. Desert locust upsurge: early warning for anticipatory action 24

West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Population displacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Long-term impact on socioeconomic development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Overall challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Exposure and vulnerability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

State of climate change policies in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Nationally determined contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Cost of nationally determined contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Implementation of nationally determined contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Opportunities for revised nationally determined contributions as development

instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Strategic perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Agenda 2063 of the African Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

COVID-19 recovery pathways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Ensuring resilience for vulnerable people . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Filling gaps in hydrometeorological systems and services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Data set details . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

List of contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Foreword
the last remaining glaciers in eastern Africa,
which are expected to melt entirely in the
near future, signals the threat of imminent
and irreversible change to the Earth system.

Along with COVID-19 recovery, enhancing

climate resilience is an urgent and continuing
need. Investments are particularly needed
in capacity development and technology
transfer, as well as in enhancing countries’
early warning systems, including weather,
water and climate observing systems.

I take this opportunity to thank regional and

international organizations and individual
State of the Climate in Africa 2020 is the second experts for collaborating on this issue of the
in the series on the continent, following the State of the Climate in Africa for the second
first report in 2019. The 2020 report, like its consecutive year. WMO remains committed
predecessor, is a collaborative effort involv- to enhancing this collaboration and to issuing
ing the World Meteorological Organization annual State of the Climate reports for the
(WMO), experts from Africa, other United six WMO Regions..
Nations agencies and the African Union, as
well as experts from partner international
scientific and technical institutions.
Prof. Petteri Taalas
During 2020, the climate indicators in Africa Secretary General
were characterized by continued warming World Meteorological Organization
temperatures, accelerating sea-level rise,
extreme weather and climate events, such
as floods and droughts, and associated
devastating impacts. The rapid shrinking of
 Preface
Agenda 2063 of the African Union – “The
Africa We Want” – is a shared strategic frame-
work for inclusive growth and sustainable
development in Africa. It recognizes climate
variability and climate change as one of the
main challenges threatening the continent’s
realization of the goals of Agenda 2063. In
line with the Agenda, which is aligned with
the United Nations Sustainable Development
Goals, the Integrated African Strategy on
Meteorology (Weather and Climate Services),
adopted at the African Ministerial Conference
on Meteorology, provides strategic guid-
ance on the development and application of
weather, water and climate services, which
Climate change is a global threat with severe, are critical for climate-resilient development
cross-sectoral, long-term and, in some cases, in Africa.
irreversible impacts. Africa is witnessing
increased weather and climate variability, The State of the Climate in Africa reports
which leads to disasters and disruption of inform the African Union and its member
economic, ecological and social systems.1 States on a regular basis, providing critical
By 2030, it is estimated that up to 118 million science-based information for climate policy
extremely poor people (i.e. living on less than and decision-making about the status of the
US$ 1.90/day) will be exposed to drought, climate and its associated annual variability.
floods and extreme heat in Africa,2 if adequate The African Union Commission will continue
response measures are not put in place. This to play a leadership role in coordinating the
will place additional burdens on poverty implementation of weather- and climate-re-
alleviation efforts and significantly hamper lated strategic frameworks in Africa, including
growth in prosperity.3 In sub-Saharan Africa, disaster risk reduction, to ensure effective
climate change could further lower gross and coherent development and delivery of
domestic product (GDP) by up to 3% by 2050.4 adequate, science-based and sector-specific
This presents a serious challenge for climate weather, water and climate services for the
adaptation and resilience actions because not continent’s socioeconomic development.
only are physical conditions getting worse,
but also the number of people being affected
is increasing.
H.E. Josefa Leonel Correia Sacko
Commissioner for Rural Economy
and Agriculture
African Union Commission

1 Niang, I. et al., 2014: Africa. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(V.R. Barros et al., eds.). Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/.
2 Shepherd, A. et al., 2013: The Geography of Poverty, Disasters and Climate Extremes in 2030, https://cdn.odi.org/media/
documents/8633.pdf.
3 Jafino, B.A. et al., 2020: Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030. Policy Research
Working Paper, No. 9417. Washington, DC, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34555.
4 Global Center on Adaptation, 2021: A global call from African leaders on the Covid-19-climate emergency and the Africa
Adaptation Acceleration Program, https://gca.org/news/a-global-call-from-african-leaders-on-the-covid-19-climate-emer-
gency-and-the-africa-adaptation-acceleration-program/.

4
Key messages
The warming trend for 1991–2020 was higher Food insecurity increases by 5–20 percentage
than for the 1961–1990 period in all African points with each flood or drought in sub-Saha-
subregions and significantly higher than the ran Africa. Associated deterioration in health
trend for 1931–1960. and in children’s school attendance can worsen
longer-term income and gender inequalities.
Annual average temperatures in 2020 across In 2020, there was an almost 40% increase in
the continent were above the 1981–2010 av- population affected by food insecurity com-
erage in most areas. The largest temperature pared with the previous year.
anomalies were recorded in the north-west of
the continent, in western equatorial areas and An estimated 12% of all new population dis-
in parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. placements worldwide occurred in the East
and Horn of Africa region, with over 1.2 million
The rates of sea-level rise along the tropical new disaster-related displacements and almost
and South Atlantic coasts and Indian Ocean 500 000 new conflict-related displacements.
coast are higher than the global mean rate, Floods and storms contributed the most to
at approximately 3.6 mm/yr and 4.1 mm/yr, internal disaster-related displacement, followed
respectively. Sea levels along the Mediterranean by droughts.
coasts are rising at a rate that is approximately
2.9 mm/yr lower than the global mean. In sub-Saharan Africa, adaptation costs are es-
timated at US$ 30–50 billion (2–3% of regional
The current retreat rates of the African mountain gross domestic product (GDP)) each year over
glaciers are higher than the global mean and the next decade, to avoid even higher costs
if this continues will lead to total deglaciation of additional disaster relief. Climate-resilient
by the 2040s. Mount Kenya is expected to be development in Africa requires investments in
deglaciated a decade sooner, which will make hydrometeorological infrastructure and early
it one of the first entire mountain ranges to lose warning systems to prepare for escalating
glaciers due to anthropogenic climate change. high-impact hazardous events.
Higher-than-normal precipitation predomi- Household surveys by the International
nated in the Sahel, the Rift Valley, the central Monetary Fund (IMF) in Ethiopia, Malawi,
Nile catchment and north-eastern Africa, the Mali, the Niger and the United Republic of
Kalahari basin and the lower course of the Tanzania found, among other factors, that
Congo River. Dry conditions prevailed along broadening access to early warning systems
the south-eastern part of the continent, in and to information on food prices and weather
Madagascar, in the northern coast of the Gulf (even with simple text or voice messages to
of Guinea and in north-western Africa. inform farmers on when to plant, irrigate or
fertilize, enabling climate-smart agriculture)
The compounded effects of protracted conflicts,
has the potential to reduce the chance of food
political instability, climate variability, pest
insecurity by 30 percentage points.
outbreaks and economic crises, exacerbated
by the impacts of the coronavirus disease Rapid implementation of African adaptation
(COVID-19) pandemic, were the key drivers of strategies will spur economic development
a significant increase in food insecurity. and generate more jobs in support of eco-
nomic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Pursuing the common priorities identified
by the African Union Green Recovery Action
Plan would facilitate the achievement of the
continent’s sustainable and green recovery
from the pandemic while also enabling effective
climate action.

5
 Global climate context in 2020
Concentrations of the major greenhouse The goal of the Paris Agreement6 is to hold the
gases (GHGs) – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane increase in the global average temperature
(CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) – continued to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels
to increase in 2019 and 2020.5 Despite the and pursue efforts to limit the temperature
La Niña conditions in the latter part of the increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
year, the global mean temperature in 2020 Progress towards this global goal is meas-
was one of the three warmest on record ured relative to pre-industrial conditions
(Figure 1), at about 1.2 °C above pre-industrial (1850–1900). There are no separate limits for
levels. The past six years, including 2020, temperatures at a regional scale. In fact, it is
have been the six warmest years on record. impossible to calculate a reliable pre-industrial
Global mean sea level has risen throughout baseline for many regional time series owing
the altimeter record, but recently it has been to a lack of data for much of the Earth from
rising at a faster rate partly due to increased the late nineteenth century. Consequently,
melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice 1981–2010 is used as a temperature baseline
sheets. in this report.

ERA5
HadCRUT5 analysis
1.2 NOAAGlobalTemp
GISTEMP
1.0 ERA-5
JRA-55
0.8

0.6
˚C

0.4

0.2

Figure 1. Global annual

0.0
mean temperature
difference from -0.2
pre-industrial conditions
(1850–1900) for five
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
global temperature data
sets. Source: Met Office, Year
United Kingdom © Crown Copyright. Source: Met Office

5 Friedlingstein, P. et al., 2020: Global Carbon Budget 2020. Earth System Science Data, 12(4): 3269–3340, https://doi.
org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020.
6 https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement

6
Temperature in Africa in 2020
Near-surface (2 m) air temperature averaged
across Africa in 2020 was between 0.45 °C ERA5
and 0.86 °C above the 1981–2010 average 1.0
HadCRUT5 analysis
(Figure 2), depending on the data set used, NOAAGlobalTemp
ranking 2020 between the third and eighth 0.5 GISTEMP
Berkeley Earth
warmest year on record. Africa warmed faster ERA-5
than the global average temperature over 0.0 JRA-55

˚C
land and ocean combined. This is consistent
with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate -0.5
Change (IPCC) special report on climate
change and land,7 which showed that land -1.0
areas have consistently warmed faster than
the global average. Predominantly tropical
areas haveHadCRUT5
warmed more2020slowly than higher 1900 Berkeley1940
1920 2020 1960 1980 2000 2020

latitudes such as Europe andaverage

difference from 1981-2010 Asia. This anal- difference from 1981-2010 average
Year © Crown Copyright. Source: Met Office

ysis is based on six data sets – HadCRUT5,

Figure 2. Area average land air temperature anomalies in °C relative to the 1981–2010 long-
NOAAGlobalTemp, GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth,
30N 30N
term average for Africa (WMO Regional Association I) based on six temperature data sets.
JRA-55 and ERA5 – validated in some cases Source: Met Office, United Kingdom
with in situ observations.8
0.6
At0 subregional scales, the temperature 0 North Africa
analysis using the six data sets shows that West Africa
Central Africa
the warming trend in the 1991–2020 period East Africa
0.4
was higher than in the 1961–1990 period Southern Africa
30S 30S Indian Ocean
Trend (˚C/decade)

in all African subregions and significantly Africa

higher than in the 1931–1960 period (Figure 3). 0.2
30W
Uncertainty 0 the trends
in 30E of the
60Eearlier two 30W 0 30E 60E
periods is larger than for the latter two peri-
ods, which is not necessarily well described 0.0
by-10
the spread
-3 -0. 5of the
0 available
0.5 3 data10 sets. -10 -3 -0. 5 0 0.5 3 10

Annual average temperatures in 2020 across -0.2

the continent were above the 1981–2010 av- 1901-1930 1931-1960 1961-1990 1991-2020
GISTEMP
erage in most areas 2020
(Figure 4). The largest ERA5 2020
difference from 1981-2010
temperature anomalies average
were recorded in difference from 1981-2010 average
the north-west of the continent, in western Figure 3. Trends in
the area average
equatorial areas and in parts of the Greater
30N 30N
temperature anomaly
Horn of Africa. However, near-average or
time series for the
slightly below-average temperatures were subregions of Africa
recorded in Southern Africa, the north of and for the whole region
Lake
0 Victoria and the Sahel region. 0 over four sub-periods.
The black lines at the
top of each bar indicate
the range of the trends
30S Figure 4. Map of near-surface annual air
30S calculated from the six
data sets.
temperature anomalies relative to the
30W 0 30E average.60E
1981–2010 Source: European 30W 0 30E 60E
Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 data set

-10 -3 -0. 5 0 0.5 3 10 -10 -3 -0. 5 0 0.5 3 10

7 IPCC, 2019: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation,
Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems (P.R. Shukla et al.,
eds.), https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/.
8 Further information about these data sets is provided at the end of this report.

7
 Sea level
Since the early 1990s, sea level has been on the Atlantic side of Africa were rather
routinely measured by high-precision altim- uniform and close to the global mean, while
eter satellites at global and regional scales. the rates were slightly higher on the Indian
Satellite-derived data indicate that the rise Ocean side (Figure 5).
in global mean sea level has accelerated
due to ocean warming and land ice melt. The Mediterranean coasts display the lowest
They also show that the sea-level rise is not sea-level rise, at approximately 2.9 mm/yr
geographically uniform, primarily due to lower than the global mean. Sea-level rise
non-uniform ocean thermal expansion and along the tropical and South Atlantic coasts is
regional salinity variations. Other important higher than the global mean, at approximately
factors that influence regional sea level in- 3.6 mm/yr.
clude the ice mass loss from West Antarctica
and Greenland, ocean thermal expansion, The sea-level time series along the Indian
gravitational, deformational and rotational Oc ean c oas t show the highe s t trend
effects, changes in ocean circulation, steric (4.1 mm/yr) and significant interannual vari-
(freshwater/salinity) effects, groundwater ability, likely driven by the Indian Ocean Dipole
extraction, reservoir construction, as well as (IOD), a mode of internal climate variability
changes in atmospheric wind and pressure. of the Indian Ocean. Positive phases of the
IOD are often (but not always) triggered by
Analysis based on the Copernicus Climate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g.
Change Service (C3S) gridded sea-level data in 1998 and 2015/2016), but can occur under
set 9 shows that the sea-level change rates neutral ENSO conditions (as in 2019).

Figure 5. Sea-level
trends from January
1993 to June 2020
(mm/yr). The red boxes
indicate the areas for
the analysis of coastal
sea-level trends: the
Mediterranean Sea,
the tropical Atlantic,
the South Atlantic
and the Indian Ocean.
Source: C3S

9 C3S, https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/satellite-sea-level-global

8
Mountain glaciers
Presently, only three mountains in Africa are the altered sea-surface temperature (SST)
covered by glaciers – the Mount Kenya massif patterns across the Indian Ocean, that is, a
(Kenya), the Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda) change of the IOD. The impinging air masses
and Mount Kilimanjaro (United Republic of increase thermodynamic stability, which
Tanzania). Although these glaciers are too impedes the formation of deep clouds and pre-
small to act as significant water reservoirs, cipitation at the summit levels.13,14 Establishing
they are of eminent touristic and scientific such teleconnections requires long-term
importance. Like glaciers in other mountain in situ observations at the summits, which
ranges, the African glaciers reached a late scientists – from the University of Innsbruck
Holocene maximum extent around 1880. (Austria), University of Otago (New Zealand),
Since then, they have been shrinking and are University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (Germany)
now at less than 20% of their early twentieth and University of Massachusetts Amherst
century extent (Figure 6). Retreat rates are (United States of America) – have maintained
higher than the global mean.10 If current during the last two decades through consid-
retreat rates prevail, the African mountains erable physical and financial efforts. The work Figure 6. Changes of the
will be deglaciated by the 2040s. Mount is currently at risk of being abandoned as a glacier area on Mount
Kenya is likely to be deglaciated a decade result of increasing administrative barriers. Kenya, Rwenzori and
sooner, which will make it one of the first The African glaciers’ imminent loss demands Kilimanjaro. The total
glacier area is indicated
entire mountain ranges to lose glaciers due more vigorous endeavours to keep in situ
on the y-axes (note
to anthropogenic climate change.11,12 monitoring programmes alive; the large-scale the different scales)
atmosphere-ocean dynamics of the African and the timeline on the
Reduced snowfall amounts and frequency glaciers are also relevant for global climate x-axes. Bold numbers
on the East African summits are related to change monitoring. depict the mean annual
area change during the
marked and the previous
survey year. Sources:
Mölg et al, 2013; Collier,
E. et al., 2018: Recent
atmospheric variability at
Kibo summit, Kilimanjaro,
and its relation to climate
mode activity. Journal of
Climate, 31: 3875–3891;
Mölg, T. et al., 2020:
Mesoscale atmospheric
circulation controls of
local meteorological
elevation gradients on
Kersten Glacier near
Kilimanjaro summit.
Earth System Dynamics,
11: 653–672.

10 Zemp, M. et al., 2019: Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016. Nature, 568:
382–386, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0.
11 Prinz, R. et al., 2016: Climatic controls and climate proxy potential of Lewis Glacier, Mt. Kenya. The Cryosphere, 10: 133–148.
12 Prinz, R. et al., 2018: Mapping the loss of Mt. Kenya’s glaciers: an example of the challenges of satellite monitoring of very
small glaciers. Geosciences, 8(5): 174, https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/8/5/174/htm.
13 Mölg, T. et al., 2009: Temporal precipitation variability versus altitude on a tropical high mountain: observations and
mesoscale atmospheric modelling. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135(643): 1439–1455, https://
doi.org/10.1002/qj.461.
14 Mölg, T. et al., 2013: East African glacier loss and climate change: corrections to the UNEP article “Africa without ice and
snow”. Environmental Development, 6: 1–6.

9
 Precipitation
Precipitation in Africa is highly variable in basin, the northern Kalahari basin and the
space owing to diverse and complex top- lower course of the Congo River. On the other
ographical or orographical features and hand, the largest precipitation deficits were
circulation regimes, but also on a temporal recorded around southern, central and east-
scale owing to various large-scale climate ern Angola, the southern Democratic Republic
drivers, such as the Atlantic dipole, IOD and of the Congo, Zambia, northern Zimbabwe,
ENSO, as well as the usual internal variability west of the Mozambique Channel, the Congo
that characterizes precipitation in general. basin, central and southern Madagascar, the
south-eastern coastal region, the northern
In 2020, prominent features included a large coast of the Gulf of Guinea and north-west
and contrasting geographical distribution of of the Atlas Mountains. Below-normal pre-
precipitation excess and deficit compared with cipitation amounts were also recorded in the
the long-term 1981–2010 average (Figure 7). Somali peninsula and south-western Africa.
On the one hand, above-normal precipitation
totals were recorded in the northern Sahel re- With regard to specific subregions, in West
gion, associated with a stronger and northern Africa precipitation totals in 2020 were gen-
extension of the West African summer mon- erally higher than the long-term 1981–2010
Absolute
soon, the Nile and most partsPrecipitation Anomalies
of the Congo average, for 2020,
continuing the above-average
Reference: 1981-2010
Figure 7. Absolute
precipitation anomalies
for 2020 in relation
to the 1981–2010
reference period. Blue
areas indicate above-
average precipitation
while brown areas
indicate below-average
precipitation. Source:
Global Precipitation
Climatology Centre
(GPCC), Deutscher
Wetterdienst, Germany 15

15 Schneider, U. et al., 2020: GPCC Monitoring Product: Near Real-Time Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-Gauges
Based on SYNOP and CLIMAT Data. DOI: 10.5676/DWD_GPCC/MP_M_V2020_250, http://dx.doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/
MP_M_V2020_250.

10
conditions experienced in 2019. The western north-western Africa experienced the second
Sahel recorded the highest rainfall total in the year in a row of below-average precipitation.
last 20 years. The positive phase of the Atlantic
SST dipole favoured an active West African In 2020, precipitation totals compared with the
summer monsoon season in 2020, leading to 1951–2010 reference period (Figure 8) indicate
above-normal rainfall in the Sahel (see Drivers
high precipitation amounts (within the upper
of observed climate variations in 2020). 10% of values) in the northern Sahel region,
the Rift Valley, the central Nile catchment
In 2020, East Africa recorded precipitation and north-eastern Africa, the Kalahari basin
above the long-term 1981–2010 average, and the lower course of the Congo River. On
except in north-eastern Somalia, southern the other hand, abnormally low precipitation
parts of Kenya and Lake Victoria, indicating amounts (within the lowest 10% of values
a high spatial variability in that subregion. in the rainfall distribution) were recorded
Southern Africa recorded precipitation below around the mountain range between the
the long-term 1981–2010 average, especially Kalahari and Congo basin, central and south-
in western parts. While north-eastern Africa ern Madagascar, west of the Mozambique
received precipitation amounts above the Channel, the northern coast of the Gulf of
GPCCfollowing
long-term average, Precipitation Quantile
two dry years, Guineaforand
2020, Reference
north-western Africa.
Period 1951-2010
Figure 8. Precipitation
quantiles for 2020.
Brown areas indicate
abnormally low
precipitation totals
(light brown indicates
the lowest 20% and
dark brown indicates
the lowest 10% of the
observed totals). Green
areas indicate unusually
high precipitation totals
(light green indicates
the highest 20% and
dark green indicates
the highest 10% of
the observed totals).
The reference period
is 1951–2010. Source:
GPCC, Deutscher
Wetterdienst, Germany

11
 Key hydrological features in 2020
Consistent with higher-than-normal rainfall than the second peak value recorded in late
recorded in the Sahel and Congo basin (see 1997 and early 1998, which was due to the
Precipitation), the monthly flow of the two water flow propagating downstream from
main rivers, Congo-Oubangui (Figure 9) and the upper basin in Guinea to Niamey. In
Niger (Figure 10), significantly exceeded the 2019/2020, however, the opposite was true.
average values, especially during the peak The active monsoon season from June to
months of October and November. The high September and the associated high amount
water level in the Congo River led to the of rainfall led to a pronounced streamflow
collapse of part of La Corniche in Brazzaville peak in August with values exceeding the
(Figure 11). second peak values in January. In 2020/2021,
the hydrological pattern was similar to that
The flow of the Niger River in Niamey, as of 2019/2020, but with peak values more
shown in Figure 10, illustrates the exceptional pronounced and extended in time. Owing
character of the hydrological year 2020/2021 to the high amount of rainfall during the
in Niamey. A comparison of the hydrographs monsoon season, the hydrological red alert
for 1997/1998, 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 threshold of 620 cm of river level was ex-
shows the effect of climate variability on ceeded in the hydrological gauge of Niamey
the flow pattern in Niamey. In 1997/1998, the on 12 August 2020. This led to river flood
first peak recorded in August as a response in the city of Niamey and the break of the
to the effect of local rainfall deficit was lower city’s protective dykes.

Annual Evolution of the flows of the Congo-Oubangui River

Figure 9. Monthly flow
(m³/s) of the Congo- 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 climatology
Oubangui River for each 9000
year 2016–2021. The
8000
average monthly flow
(climatology) over the
7000
same period is shown in
red. Source: Hydroweb,
6000
http://hydroweb.theia-
land.fr/hydroweb/
5000
(m3/s)

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Months

12
 Figure 10. Hydrographs
3500
1984/1985 (driest year) of the Niger River
1997/1998 at Niamey station,
3000 2012/2013 (wettest year) comparing daily
2015-2016 flows for selected
Reference (Hydrological Normal 1981-2010) hydrological years and
2019/2020
2500 with the 1981–2010
2020/2021
hydrological long-term
average. The long-term
Discharge (m3/s)

2000
average is shown in
black. Source: Regional
1500
Training Centre for
Agrometeorology and
Operational Hydrology
1000 and their Applications
(AGRHYMET)

500

0
1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May

Figure 11. Collapse

of part of La Corniche
overlooking the Congo
River in Brazzaville,
9 January 2020.
Source: RFI/ Loïcia
Martial, https://www.rfi.
fr/fr/afrique/20200110-
congo-b-eboulements-
touchent-centre-ville-
brazzaville

13
 Drivers of observed climate
variations in 2020
In January 2020, SSTs over the equatorial TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEA-SURFACE
central Pacific region were close to El Niño TEMPERATURE
thresholds, then evolved into a reverse situa-
tion during the following months and reached The tropical Atlantic (TASI17 ) SST index
moderate La Niña conditions in October 2020 (Figure 13) is the difference between the
(Figure 12). La Niña conditions are typically tropical North Atlantic SST and tropical South
associated with above-average summer Atlantic SST indices. The index started in
precipitation over the Sahel.16 January under a cold phase and evolved to
reach a significant positive phase in August–
September 2020. This latter pattern, which
2.5 features anomalously warm water off the
2.0 western coast of the Sahel region, is usu-
1.5 ally favourable for above-average summer
1.0 precipitation in the Sahel, by contributing to
0.5
the northward extension and persistence of
0.0
˚C

the West African monsoon. Conversely, the

-0.5
TASI index showed a significant negative
-1.0
value during the first quarter of 2020, relat-
-1.5
-2.0
ed to above-average SSTs over the tropical
-2.5
South Atlantic. This pattern drove the well
above-average precipitation experienced
01-Jan

22-Jan

12-Feb

04-Mar

25-Mar

15-Apr

06-May

27-May

17-Jun

08-Jul

29-Jul

19-Aug

09-Sep

30-Sep

21-Oct

11-Nov

02-Dec

23-Dec

over Central Africa, particularly in Angola

from January to March 2020.
Figure 12. The Niño 3.4 SST anomaly index for 2020 calculated with
SSTs in the box 170°W–120°W, 5°S–5°N. Source: African Centre of
Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), based on
data from the State of the Ocean Climate, https://stateoftheocean.
osmc.noaa.gov/sur/pac/nino34.php.

2.5
2.0
1.5
Figure 13. Tropical
1.0
Atlantic SST index.
0.5
Source: ACMAD, based
0.0
˚C

on data from NOAA

National Centers for -0.5

Environmental Prediction -1.0

(Reynolds, R.W. et al., -1.5
2002: An improved in -2.0
situ and satellite SST -2.5
2018-01

2018-03

2018-05

2018-07

2018-09

2018-11

2019-01

2019-03

2019-05

2019-07

2019-09

2019-11

2020-01

2020-03

2020-05

2020-07

2020-09

2020-11

analysis for climate.

Journal of Climate,
15(13): 1609–1625).

16 Famine Early Warning Systems Network, 2020: La Niña and precipitation. Agroclimatology Fact Sheet Series, 2: 1–2,
https://fews.net/la-ni%C3%B1a-and-precipitation.
17 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the State of the Ocean Climate, https://stateoftheocean.osmc.
noaa.gov/sur/atl/

14
DIPOLE MODE INDEX
The IOD is commonly measured by an index for south-eastern Africa, calculated for the
(the Dipole Mode Index, or DMI), which is 1958–2019 period using the GPCC precipita-
the difference in SST anomalies between tion data set, thus reflecting the strength of
the western and eastern equatorial Indian this teleconnection in these regions. 20
Ocean.18 When the SST in the western
Indian Ocean is higher than on the eastern Following significant positive values in
side, a positive IOD is recorded, promoting 2018 and 2019, the DMI returned to near
the formation of a massive low-pressure neutral conditions in 2020 (Figure 14), except
system accompanied by extreme wind and a slight positive excursion that occurred
precipitation anomalies across large areas from late April to early July. During neutral
of eastern Africa.19 The fraction of precipi- conditions, rainfall patterns become less
tation variance, in September–November, predictable and can lead to rainfall out-
explained by the IOD mode of variability is comes due to other drivers such as ENSO
about 32% for north-eastern Africa and 59% or natural variability.

Dipole Mode Index

Figure 14. Indian
3 Ocean DMI time series
from January 2018
2.5 to December 2020.
Source: ACMAD, based
2 on data from NOAA
National Centers for
Environmental Prediction
1.5
(Reynolds et al., 2002).

0.5

-0.5
2018-01

2018-03

2018-05

2018-07

2018-09

2018-11

2019-01

2019-03

2019-05

2019-07

2019-09

2019-11

2020-01

2020-03

2020-05

2020-07

2020-09

2020-11

18 Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology, 2021: About ENSO and IOD indices, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
enso/indices/about.shtml.
19 Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), 2019:
October to December 2019 extreme floods in eastern Africa, climate variability or change? https://icpac.medium.com/
october-to-december-2019-extreme-floods-in-eastern-africa-climate-variability-or-change-e48a0be7a610.
20 IPCC, 2021: Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (V. Masson-Delmotte et al.,
eds.). Cambridge University Press, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/.

15
 BOX 1. ANTICIPATORY ACTION TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
EL NIÑO–SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON AGRICULTURE IN AFRICA

Overview

During La Niña, the easterly trade winds International Research Institute for Climate
blowing across the equatorial Pacific are and Society (IRI), OCHA, the United Nations
reinforced, resulting in the accumulation of Children’s Fund, WMO, the World Health
warm water in the western Pacific. No two Organization, the World Food Programme
La Niña events are alike, and analysis of and others – was activated and collabora-
previous occurrences shows that impacts tion among partners was initiated months
over Africa are varied. Eastern Africa tends before the official La Niña declaration by
to experience drier-than-normal conditions, WMO in October. The Global ENSO Analysis
affecting the second agricultural season of the Cell convened as early as August to assess
region from November to March. Southern the situation and determine the countries
Africa usually records above-average rainfall with the highest risk of potential impacts
between November and April, due to the from the event in the last quarter of 2020
suppression of the Indian Ocean monsoon and the first quarter of 2021. Consequently,
over south-eastern Africa, resulting in a high an advisory note summarizing the level of
risk of flooding which affects agricultural risk was communicated to the respective
livelihoods (e.g. through seed loss, crop United Nations Resident Coordinators/
damage, livestock morbidity and mortality). Humanitarian Coordinators recommending
further country-level monitoring, analysis
Approach and preparedness for anticipatory action.

In the immediate aftermath of the strong In December 2020, FAO built on the inter-agen-
2015/2016 El Niño, the Food and Agriculture cy efforts and developed an in-depth La Niña
Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and advisory, which provides an outlook of the
the United Nations Office for the Coordination potential effects on the agricultural sector and
of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), together with outlines context-specific anticipatory action
other partners, developed the Inter-Agency recommendations to protect agricultural
Standard Operating Procedures for Early livelihoods and food security in high-risk
Action to El Niño/La Niña Episodes (IA-SOPs). countries. Anticipatory action to address the
Endorsed by the United Nations Inter-Agency risks of localized dry spells and torrential rains
Standing Committee in 2018, the IA-SOPs seek in the Horn of Africa included the combina-
to facilitate a common understanding of El tion of cash transfers and drought-tolerant
Niño/La Niña-related extreme weather events agricultural inputs ahead of the planting
and risk thresholds and to provide guidance Belg/Gu seasons, as well as animal disease
for coordinated anticipatory action at the surveillance, vaccinations and treatment of
global, regional and country level in order core breeding stock to prevent drought-in-
to prevent and mitigate negative impacts of duced animal disease. For areas at high risk
such events on the most vulnerable. of flooding in Southern Africa, recommended
anticipatory action included the establishment
When La Niña warnings became more accu- of food storage sites and provision of storage
rate in mid-2020, and in line with the IA-SOPs, equipment to reduce post-harvest losses
the Global ENSO Analysis Cell of the Inter- caused by above-normal rainfall conditions,
Agency Standing Committee – which includes as well as increased surveillance of pest and
FAO, the International Federation of Red diseases, including locust and fall armyworm.
Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the

16
Results Next steps: forward-looking solutions

The IA-SOPs established after the strong - Country-level risk monitoring systems and
El Niño event in 2015/2016 proved highly sector-specific standard operating procedures
valuable to convene multiple partners, at the should be strengthened, to be activated upon
global, regional and national levels, to pro- ENSO event early warnings to facilitate timely
duce common early warning messages and action to protect lives and livelihoods ahead
recommendations to act before the 2020/2021 of expected shocks.
La Niña impacts materialized. Thanks to this
and to sector- and region-specific advisories, - Climate services and community early warn-
many governments and partners are now ing coverage should be enhanced, providing
more attentive to potential La Niña effects timely and well-communicated appropriate
on regional climate and actions to be taken advisory information to all socioeconomic
to protect livelihoods. sectors, including agricultural advice for
farmers to take up appropriate actions ahead
For example, the Ethiopia inter-agency an- of ENSO event impacts on their livelihoods.
ticipatory action framework was activated
in December 2020 as the pre-agreed triggers - In countries expected to be severely af-
for forecast La Niña-induced drought and fected by ENSO events, flexible finance will
projected food security deterioration were be critical to allow for anticipatory action
met. The Central Emergency Response based on concrete warning signals, tailored
Fund released pre-arranged funds to allow to livelihoods and the evolving risks.
implementing agencies to protect the most
vulnerable households, whose livelihoods
were already depleted owing to multiple con-
current shocks in 2020. Finally, FAO focused
on providing short cycle drought-tolerant
seeds, animal treatment, animal vaccination,
animal feed and unconditional cash to the
most vulnerable households in Afar, Somali
and the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and
Peoples’ Region.

17
 High-impact events in 2020
Flooding that occurred over Africa in 2020 was CENTRAL AFRICA
extensive across many parts of East Africa,
with the Sudan and Kenya the worst affect- The Central African region recorded a high
ed: 285 deaths reported in Kenya, 21 and 155 number of extreme events in 2020, including
deaths and over 800 000 people affected in the floods, windstorms and landslides (Figure 15).
Sudan.22 Moreover, there were further indirect For example, in August 2020, a mesoscale con-
impacts from diseases. Countries reporting vective system, triggered by a deep monsoon
loss of life or significant displacement of penetration at the Atlantic coast, resulted
populations included the Sudan, South Sudan, in heavy rainfall over Douala (Cameroon).
Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Chad, Later, in Maroua, far north of Cameroon and
Nigeria (which also experienced drought in over Chad, another mesoscale convective
the southern part), the Niger, Benin, Togo, system generated heavy downpours and
Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon and Burkina strong microbursts causing an aircraft to
Faso. Many lakes and rivers reached record leave the runway at Maroua-Salak Airport
high levels, including Lake Victoria (in May) but without damage to the aircraft. 25
and the Niger River at Niamey and the Blue
Nile at Khartoum (in September). Heavy rainfall in the region caused the burst-
ing of the Congo River and the Mayo Palar.
Long-term drought continued to persist in Adverse impacts included the collapse of the
parts of Southern Africa, particularly the Corniche Monument in the Congo (Brazzaville)
Northern and Eastern Cape Provinces of South and of Palar Bridge in Cameroon (Maroua) in
Africa. However, heavy winter rains saw water January and August 2020, respectively, as
storages reach full capacity in Cape Town, well as the economic losses in transboundary
aiding the recovery from the extreme drought exchanges between Cameroon and Chad (the
situation which peaked in 2018. Rainfall during Palar case).
the 2019/2020 summer rainy season in the
interior of Southern Africa was locally heavy, During 2020, parts of the Gulf of Guinea
and many areas had above-average rainfall in received an annual count of up to 85 days
November and December, though long-term with daily precipitation ≥20 mm resulting in
drought persisted in some areas. floods and landslides in Douala (Cameroon)
and Gabon. In the far region of Cameroon,
On 22 November 2020, Tropical Cyclone Gati, the high number of cases of flood events was
originating from the Bay of Bengal, became due to the monsoon intensity in 2020 and
the strongest storm ever to hit Somalia (the accentuated by the topography of the area
first cyclone making landfall in Somalia as (flat land with inadequate drainage system).
a category 2 storm on the Saffir–Simpson As mentioned above, teleconnection played
scale). 23 The storm brought heavy rain to a crucial role with the active climate drivers
the region, and local authorities reported at in the region.
least nine people killed, tens of thousands
displaced and a few thousand properties
belonging to nomadic communities in the
affected areas destroyed. 24

21 Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), www.emdat.be
22 OCHA , Relief Web, 2 0 2 0: Sudan situation repor t , 13 November 2 0 2 0, ht tps: //relief web.int /repor t /sudan /
sudan-situation-report-13-nov-2020-enar.
23 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth Observatory, 2020: Gati makes historic landfall in Somalia,
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147576/gati-makes-historic-landfall-in-somalia.
24 OCHA, ReliefWeb, 2020: Tropical Cyclone Gati - Nov 2020, https://reliefweb.int/disaster/tc-2020-000232-som.
25 Noëth, B., 2020: Cameroon Air Force C-130 Hercules overruns runway at Maroua-Salak Airport, Cameroon. Aviation24.be,
4 August, https://www.aviation24.be/military-aircraft/cameroon-air-force/c-130-hercules-overruns-runway-at-maroua-
salak-airport-cameroon/.

18
 Figure 15. Summary of
extreme events that
Summary of extreme events occurred in 2020 in
Central Africa, including
(floods, landslides, windstorms) flood events, windstorms
in Central Africa in 2020 and landslides. Source:
Climate Application
and Prediction Centre
for Central Africa
(CAPC-AC), based
Flood event on media reports and
feedback from National
Meteorological and
Windstorm Hydrological Services
(NMHSs) of the countries
of the Economic
EQ
Landslide Community of Central
African States (ECCAS).

Air crash
n
éa ue
Oc nt iq
t la 1 to 2 Cases 5 to 6 Cases
A

3 to 4 Cases More than 6 Cases

Figure 16. Number of

Tropical cyclones in the Southwestern Indian Ocean tropical cyclones and
for 2019-2020 Season storms in the 2019–2020
7 season in the SWIO
6 (west of 90°E) compared
6
with the long-term mean
5 (1999–2019). In this
5
Number of Events

figure, tropical cyclones

4 4
4 are systems which reach
a maximum 10-minute
3 wind speed of more than
118 km/h, and tropical
2 storms are systems with
a maximum 10-minute
1
wind speed of 63–118
0 km/h. Source: ACMAD,
Long-Term Mean (1999–2019) 2019-2020 based on data provided
by the La Réunion
Cyclones Storms Regional Specialized
Meteorological Centre/
Tropical Cyclone Centre,
Météo-France, http://
www.meteofrance.
re/cyclone/saisons-
passees/2019-2020/
dirre/01-20192020.

19
Figure 17. (left) Maize
crops submerged in
water, Namwala District,
Southern Province,
Zambia. Source: Disaster
Management and
Mitigation Unit, Southern
Province Regional Office

Figure 18. (right)

Damaged bridge along
the Choma Namwala
road, Namwala District,
Southern Province,
Zambia. Source: Disaster
Management and
Mitigation Unit, Southern
Province Regional Office SOUTHERN AFRICA at the beginning of the 2020/2021 summer
rainfall season. The Northern Cape was de-
The South-western Indian Ocean (SWIO) clared a disaster area after a drought that
cyclone season starts in November and ends had crippled the province for the past couple
on 15 May the following year, though storm of years. R 200 million was set aside to help
formation outside the normal season does address the crisis. KwaZulu-Natal province
occur occasionally particularly in the month was also hit hard by a shorter-term drought,
of October. The number of cyclones in the accompanied by very high temperatures,
SWIO in the 2019–2020 season (six) exceeded which affected 256 towns and surrounding
the long-term average (five), whereas the communities. The identified hotspot areas
number of recorded storms (four) remained include the districts of uThukela, uMzin-
the same as the long-term average (Figure 16). yathi, Amajuba, Zululand, King Cetshwayo
and uMgungundlovu. However, the early
Zambia recorded above-average rainfall due summer, starting in October, experienced
to the passage of tropical cyclones over the well above-normal rainfall in the North West
southern Indian Ocean traversing towards province extending south-eastwards over
Southern Africa, which triggered extensive the central and eastern interior into southern
flooding across many parts of the country. KwaZulu-Natal. This was accompanied by
An estimated 2 720 hectares of cultivated heavy storms resulting in losses of life and
crops in Namwala District, Southern Province, extensive damage, including to hundreds of
were under water (Figure 17). Additionally, residential dwellings.
the bursting rivers and overflowing of the
Kabulamwanda Dam damaged one of the
bridges that connects the district to the rest of
the country (Figure 18). In one district, where WEST AFRICA
the communities are mainly pastoralist farm-
ers, animals had limited grazing area owing The exceptional flooding in 2020 of the Niger
to flooding in the plains. A total of 16 primary River led to deaths and extensive damage.
schools were affected by floods and pupils As of 31 December 2020, the Niger recorded
experienced difficulties accessing the schools, 557 800 people affected, or 69 407 house-
which increased school absenteeism. holds, with 66 deaths from house collapses,
14 deaths from drowning and 100 injuries. 26
In South Africa, dry conditions persisted over In addition, 51 560 houses and huts were
large areas in the west of the country. In some destroyed and 9 741 hectares of crops were
parts, the dry conditions have continued for submerged by water. The most affected re-
approximately seven years, but it should be gions were Maradi, Tillabéri, Dosso, Niamey,
noted that some regions received good rains Tahoua and Zinder.

26 Direction Générale de la Protection Civile (DGPC), the Niger

20
 Figure 19. (left)
Landspout tornadoes in
Oued Zem, Morocco, on
15 March 2020. Source:
severe-weather.eu,
https://twitter.com/
severeweathereu/sta-
tus/1239763413666070528

Figure 20. (right) Giant

hailstones in Tripoli,
Libya. The diameter of
the hailstones seems to
be from 15 cm to 20 cm.
Source: Korosec, M.,
2020.
NORTH AFRICA SOUTH-WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN
Concerning extreme precipitation events, Island States located in the SWIO basin are
146 mm of rain was recorded in 24 hours in prone to disastrous impacts of hydrometeor-
Jijel, Algeria, on 21 December 2020, which ological events, notably from the winds and
contributed to a lot of damage to infrastruc- rainfall, though minimal impacts from the
ture. In Morocco, dry conditions persisted associated storm surges are experienced.
from September 2019 to May/June 2020, and Historically, the worst storm Mauritius has ex-
the rainy season was one of the four driest perienced in terms of casualties was Tropical
years since 1981. Anomalies of monthly mean Cyclone Carol in February 1960, which led to
temperature reached +3.5 °C in Algeria and damages amounting to about MUR 150 million
+4.0 °C in Morocco. In July, it was very hot (about US$ 2 million at the time).
in Morocco and Algeria, with temperatures
reaching or even exceeding 48 °C in the In January 2020, Tropical Cyclone Calvinia,
majority of the southern regions of Algeria Severe Tropical Storm Diane and Moderate
(the Sahara); 47.8 °C in Hassi Messaoud and Tropical Storm Esami influenced the weather
Ouargla; and 48.5 °C in Adrar. over Mauritius. Diane also crossed Madagascar
after forming in the Mozambique Channel. In
In Tunisia, 2020 was the third hottest year December, Severe Tropical Storm Chalane,
since 1950, after 2016 and 2014, with an which originated in the central Indian Ocean,
average temperature of 20.2 °C and a positive went all the way into the South Atlantic,
anomaly of 0.9 °C. off Namibia, after crossing Madagascar,
Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana and
In Morocco, tornadoes, which have been Namibia.
observed in recent years, continued to be
reported, although with no known damage
(Figure 19).

Tripoli, Libya, was affected by severe weather

conditions on 27 October 2020. 27 The winds
ahead of the trough, which strengthened with
height, favoured organized convective storms
including rotating and supercell storms which
produced exceptionally large giant hailstones
of about 20 cm in diameter (Figure 20).

27 Korosec, M., 2020: World’s largest hail record may be challenged by exceptionally large 20+ cm (8 inches) hailstones
hit the capital of Libya on Tuesday, Oct 27th. Severe Weather Europe, 28 October, https://www.severe-weather.eu/
global-weather/large-giant-hail-libya-mk/.

21
 Climate-related risks and
socioeconomic impacts
FOOD SECURITY
According to the Global Report on Food In 2020, the number of severely food-insecure
Crises of the World Food Programme, in people in the Democratic Republic of the
2020 approximately 98 million people suf- Congo continued to increase, with up to
fered from acute food insecurity and needed 21.8 million (Acute Food Insecurity Integrated
humanitarian assistance in Africa, which Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 3 or above).
is an almost 40% increase from 2019. The In Nigeria, food insecurity levels reached
compounded effects of protracted conflicts, the highest on record, with approximately
political instability, climate variability, pest 9.2 million in IPC Phase 3 or above. The up-
outbreaks and economic crises, exacerbated surge was mainly driven by the effects of the
by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, COVID-19 pandemic on the local economies
were the key drivers. Restrictions put in place and the impacts of large-scale floods and
to contain the spread of COVID-19 contribut- long-term conflicts that displaced populations
ed to a significant loss of income and jobs, and disrupted livelihoods. The food security
impairing domestic and cross-border trade situation also worsened in Burkina Faso, Mali
of food commodities. As a result, market and the Niger owing to the impacts of floods
availability decreased and food prices in- and conflicts. The Sudan, Ethiopia, South
creased, further constraining food access for Sudan and Somalia were hit by the combined
vulnerable households. In several countries, force of the COVID-19 pandemic, extensive
poor rains curbed crop production, while in floods and desert locust outbreaks. Moreover,
other regions heavy rains triggered floods the food security situation deteriorated in
leading to damage and loss across agrifood Zimbabwe, Mozambique and southern parts
systems, and rural and market infrastructures, of Madagascar where poor rains curbed crop
as well as to disrupted trade flows. production in 2020, resulting in low household
supplies and high food prices.
Climate change effects in Africa have increased
the frequency and intensity of droughts in Building household resilience and improving
some regions, lowered animal growth rates coping mechanisms can significantly reduce
and productivity in pastoral systems and the risk of food insecurity. Household surveys
produced negative effects in food security in by the IMF in Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, the Niger
drylands, among other impacts. West Africa and the United Republic of Tanzania found,
has a high number of people vulnerable to among other factors, that broadening access
increased desertification and yield decline, to early warning systems and to information
and the situation is likely to worsen, with on food prices and weather (even with simple
Africa projected to be one of the regions with text or voice messages to inform farmers on
the highest number of people vulnerable to when to plant, irrigate or fertilize, enabling
increased desertification. 28 climate-smart agriculture) has the potential
to reduce the chance of food insecurity by
30 percentage points. 29

28 IPCC, 2019: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation,
Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems (P.R. Shukla et al.,
eds.), https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/.
29 IMF, 2020: Adapting to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. In: Regional Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, https://
www.elibrary.imf.org/view/books/086/28915-9781513536835-en/28915-9781513536835-en-book.xml.

22
EAST AFRICA
High precipitation and abnormal vegeta- countries most affected by desert locusts and
tion growth provided unusually favourable which experienced the highest associated
conditions for the feeding and breeding of crop and pasture losses. In 2020, Ethiopia
desert locusts. The locust invasion contin- lost an estimated 356 286 tons of cereal,
ued through 2020 with swarms migrating affecting about 806 400 farming households,
from one country of East Africa to another 197 163 hectares of cropland and 1.35 million
according to the ecological and climatic hectares of pasture and browse. 30
conditions suitable for development and
reproduction, as well as the prevailing wind
direction which was enabling migration
(Figure 21). Ethiopia and Somalia were the

Figure 21. Desert locust

movement over East
Africa in 2020 and
prediction for February
2021. Source: ICPAC

30 Impact of desert locust infestation on household livelihoods and food security in Ethiopia, https://www.humanitarianresponse.
info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/assessments/desert_locust_impact_assessment_report_for_ethiopia.pdf

23
 BOX 2. DESERT LOCUST UPSURGE: EARLY WARNING FOR ANTICIPATORY
ACTION

Overview

The atypical weather conditions in 2018–2020 Strengthened regional and national ca-
due to a positive IOD (Figure 14), which caused pacities and enhanced preparedness: FAO
the weakening of the westerlies and allowed supported the revision of regional and nation-
warm water and precipitation to shift to- al preparedness and capacities to rapidly learn
wards East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, from ongoing efforts, identify shortcomings
generated strong cyclones and heavy rains and apply course correctors.
(Cyclones Luban and Mekunu in 2018, Pawan
in 2019 and Gati in 2020). High precipitation Enhanced regional advocacy and national
and abnormal vegetation growth throughout level coordination: The FAO Resilience Team
this period resulted in favourable conditions for Eastern Africa, together with OCHA, co-or-
for the feeding and breeding of desert locusts ganized monthly coordination and briefing
that lasted more than two years and continued meetings to raise awareness among stake-
in 2020 (Figure 21). holders and guide the planning of livelihoods
interventions to ensure maximum coverage
Approach and harmonized approaches.

Early warning and rapid response: Using the Awa r e n e s s c a m p a i g n s: T hr o ugh t h e

latest technologies including Earth obser- Sensitization Taskforce for Eastern Africa,
vations, models and real-time data, FAO’s 29 partners maintained bimonthly meet-
Desert Locust Information Service provided ings to increase awareness using various
real-time assessments, forecasts and alerts so communication tools, including key mes-
that affected countries could respond rapidly sages – translated into local languages – for
and international partners could ensure the dissemination by radio, SMS and flyers, as
continuation of these efforts. well as guidance and media (e.g. photos,
videos) for use by partners.
Surveillance: FAO rapidly expanded the dig-
ital tools used to enter survey and control Promotion of regional partnerships and col-
data in the field, to include a mobile version laboration: The regional Food Security and
(eLocust3m) as a crowdsourcing approach Nutrition Working Group, co-led by FAO and
and a GPS version (eLocust3g) developed IGAD, provided the framework and technical
for extra seconded field teams. Information means for developing harmonized impact
gathered through these apps is transmitted assessments. Additionally, the regional desert
in real time for organizing control opera- locust Community Sensitization Taskforce for
tions, sent daily to national locust control Eastern Africa, co-chaired by FAO and OCHA,
centres across the region and shared with played a critical role in raising awareness
the Desert Locust Information Service at FAO and harmonizing desert locust messaging
headquarters. across the region.

Ground and air control operations: FAO

provided assets and equipment to support
the detection of locust populations, including
the procurement and hiring of seven planes,
seven helicopters, 94 vehicles and 110 motor-
cycles, distributed across Somalia, Ethiopia,
Kenya and Uganda. Aircraft were managed
by a new geospatial system (EarthRanger).

24
Results

Control operations prevented the loss of

3.1 million tons of cereals (equivalent to the
food consumption of 18 million people for
an entire year) worth about US$ 800 million.
The livelihoods of 28 million people were
saved, and food security was protected in
2020. Moreover, 1.56 million hectares of land
were treated in the Greater Horn of Africa
and Yemen in 2020.

FAO and partners mobilized US$ 195 million

for rapid response and anticipatory action in
2020. The economic benefits of the interven-
tions in 2020 were estimated at US$ 1.2 billion.

Next steps: forward-looking solutions

- The use of biopesticides should be promot-

ed, with an estimated 75–80% effectiveness,
similar to conventional pesticides. They were
hardly used during the 2020 desert locust
upsurge (7% came from biopesticides).

- The expansion of innovative digital tools

should be continued, to improve field data
for real-time decision-making.

- A five-year programme in East Africa should

be established, to sustain and improve the
acquired capacities beyond the current
emergency for a longer-term monitoring
and response mechanism.

25
Figure 22. 2020/2021
cereal production
2020/2021 Cereal production over West Africa and Sahel
over West Africa and
the Sahel. Source:
Permanent Inter-State
Committee on Drought
Control in the Sahel
(CILSS), quarterly
bulletin 01/2021
Mauritania

Mali Niger

Chad
Senegal
Gambia
Burkina Faso
Guinea-Bissau
Guinea Benin
Nigeria

Sierra Cote Ghana Togo

Leone d'Ivoire

Liberia Cereal production

in millions of tons
< 1,5
1,5-5
5 -10
0 160 320 640 960 1280
Kilometres 10 -20
> 20

WEST AFRICA
The results for the 2020/2021 agricultural Owing to favourable weather conditions,
and agropastoral season in the Sahel and especially with regard to the spatial and
West African region show good production temporal distribution of rainfall, there was
across the region, compared with last year a projected gross surplus of local cereals of
and the average for the past five years 4.3 million tons, but a deficit of 4.3 million tons
(Figure 22). Cereal production was estimat- of wheat and 0.655 million tons of rice. For a
ed at 74.8 million tons, an increase of 1.3% population estimated at 427 million people,
from the previous season. In the Sahelian the amount needed is about 61.7 million
countries, it was estimated at 28.5 million tons. By the end of 2020, cereal availability
tons (an increase of 4.8% from the previous was expected to be 60.5 million tons, 76% of
season), and in the coastal countries at 46.33 which consists of millet, sorghum and maize,
million tons (a decrease of 0.7% from the 23% rice and 1% wheat.
previous season).

26
Population displacement
In the first six months of 2020, the Internal conflict between farmers and pastoralists
Displacement Monitoring Centre recorded were recorded in several countries, arising
14.6 million new displacements across from the stressors that natural hazards had
127 countries and territories; conflict and placed on these vulnerable communities and
violence accounted for approximately the adverse impacts. 32
4.8 million and disasters 9.8 million. 31
Approximately 12% of all new displacements Despite generally favourable rainfall and
worldwide occurred in the East and Horn associated yields of cereal crops, flooding
of Africa region, with over 1.2 million new along the Niger River notwithstanding, the
disaster-related displacements and almost International Organization for Migration (IOM)
500 000 new conflict-related displacements assessments estimated a total of 1.25 million
(Figure 23). displaced people in Burkina Faso, Mali and
the Niger, contexts already characterized
Floods and storms contributed the most to in- by conflict and food insecurity, as well as
ternal disaster-related displacement, followed forced internal and cross-border population
by droughts. The Sudan and Kenya were the movements. This interannual displacement
worst affected by the devastating floods, adds to the long-term exacerbating factors
with more than 440 deaths reported. Over that concern the wider Sahel, which is ex-
800 000 people were affected in the Sudan, periencing population growth, unregulated
and over 900 000 in Somalia, among further irrigation, deforestation, desertification and
indirect impacts from diseases. Instances of drought.

Figure 23. Total number

of people affected due
20° N to various hazards
Sudan Displaced People and climate-induced
October to December 2020
disasters in the IGAD
40,000 Eritrea Floods Landslide region in 2020. Source:
---
IGAD member States
Tropical Cyclone
Ethiopia
0 Djibouti
11,210
10° N
South
Sudan
600,000

~ 41,300

Kenya Somalia
Uganda 14,338
4,582
-- -
0°

Source: IGAD Member states.

National boundaries are not official and do 0 250 500
not show ICPAC/IGAD position in any ways. Kilometers

30° E 40° E 50° E

31 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2020: Mid-Year Update 2020, https://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/

default/files/publications/documents/2020%20Mid-year%20update.pdf.
32 U n i t e d N a t i o n s C l i m a t e S e c u r i t y M e c h a n i s m To o l b o x – O v e r v i e w , h t t p s : / / d p p a . u n . o r g / e n /
climate-security-mechanism-toolbox-overview

27
 Long-term impact on
socioeconomic development
OVERALL CHALLENGES EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Droughts, floods and storms are the most
provides a shared blueprint for peace and common natural hazards affecting Africa
prosperity at present and into the future. It (Figures 25 and 26). The SWIO countries and
includes a set of Sustainable Development those in the east of Southern Africa, such
Goals (SDGs). However, the achievement of as the Comoros, Madagascar, Malawi and
many SDGs is put at risk by climate change Mozambique, are particularly susceptible
(Figure 24). For example, rising temperatures to tropical cyclones from the Indian Ocean.
lead to the loss of species and ecosystems, Similarly, Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone are
which can reduce agricultural and fishing exposed to storms from the Atlantic Ocean.
yields, and contribute to food insecurity and Large coastal cities (Abidjan, Accra, Dakar, Dar
affect livelihoods (SDGs 1, 2, 14 and 15). es Salaam and Lagos) are exposed to floods
Extreme weather and climate events can also associated with rising sea levels. Floods can
exacerbate health risks, damage infrastruc- spread diseases because they create breeding
ture and lead to water scarcity (SDGs 1, 3, 6, grounds for mosquitoes and contaminate
9 and 11). These threats, together with others, drinking water, 33 creating challenges for
are interrelated with conflict and stability safeguarding the achievements of recent
(SDG 16). Such risks and impacts do not years in reducing incidences of malaria and
affect all populations or regions equally and improving access to drinking water.
can reinforce or worsen existing inequalities
(SDG 10).

CO2 CONCENTRATION KEY RISKS TO ACHIEVING

SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
OCEAN
Figure 24. Selected ACIDIFICATION Rising poverty
climate change- HIGH IMPACT
related risks to the ADDITIONAL EVENTS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT Food insecurity
achievement of the & RADIATIVE FORCING Heatwaves
SDGs. Source: WMO,
SURFACE EFFECTS ON Health issues
2021: Climate Indicators TEMPERATURE GLOBAL Cold waves
Warmer land,
and Sustainable ocean & CIRCULATION
atmosphere PATTERNS Water scarcity
Development: Fires
OCEAN HEAT
Demonstrating the CONTENT Slowdown Damaged
Interconnections of the global infrastructure
Droughts
thermohaline
(WMO-No. 1271). circulation Rising
GLACIER MASS Flooding inequalities
Jet stream
Melting of the weakening
cryosphere Discplacement
Marine
heatwaves
SEA-ICE EXTENT El Niño–Southern Ecosystem
Oscillation Tropical collapse
cyclones
Biodiversity
SEA-LEVEL RISE Coastal loss
erosion
Conflict
Legend
WMO Interconnections Reinforcing
Indicators feedback loop Sources: IPCC, WMO

33 IMF, 2016: Enhancing resilience to natural disasters in sub-Saharan Africa. In: Regional Economic Outlook. Washington, DC,
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/afr/eng/sreo1016.htm?cmpid=FB.

28
 1. Number of Disasters 2. Damages (percent of GDP) 3. Affected Persons (per million population)
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 40,000 80,000 120,000

Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Eswatini

Nigeria Niger
Mozambique
Kenya
Zimbabwe Malawi
Mozambique
Malawi Lesotho
Niger
Ethiopia Niger Namibia
Angola Ethiopia Zimbabwe
Madagascar Burkina Faso South Sudan
Uganda Mozambique
Namibia
Souh Africa
Souh Africa Chad
United Republic of Tanzania
Mauritius Kenya
Malawi
Burundi Seychelles Eritrea
Zimbabwe Kenya Ethiopia
Chad Droughts Droughts Droughts
Senegal Madagascar
Mali Epidemics Floods Epidemics
Burundi Burundi
Burkina Faso Floods Storms Floods
Comoros Comoros
Central African Republic Storms Storms
Cameron
Ghana
Zambia
Benin
Guinea
Rwanda

Figure 25. Exposure

(a) Number of reported disasters (b) Reported economic losses in (c) Number of reported deaths and vulnerability to
total = 1 695 disasters US$ billion total = US$ 38.5 billion total = 731 747 deaths
climate-related hazards
2% 3% by category.
4% 1%
17% 16% Top: Natural disasters
26% statistics by country,
2% 2000–2018. Epidemics
3% 37% are also included as they
can be highly correlated
with climate in Africa.
Note: Actual damages
are likely to be higher as
34% some recorded disasters
60% 95%
are missing impact data.
Drought Extreme temperature Flood Landslide Storm Wildfire Sources: CRED, EM-DAT;
IMF calculation.
Bottom: Overview of (a)
weather-, climate- and
Africa is exceptionally vulnerable to climate education and health care impede their ability water-related disasters;
variability and change compared with many to adapt to the increased vulnerabilities to (b) economic losses;
other regions. Almost half of the population food insecurity, income losses and unem- and (c) deaths reported
in Africa (1970–2019).
in sub-Saharan Africa live below the poverty ployment. Weather and climate exacerbate
Source: WMO,
line34 and depend on weather-sensitive ac- already significant inequalities in sub-Saharan 2021: WMO Atlas of
tivities, such as rain-fed agriculture, herding Africa. Analyses by the IMF35 show that in Mortality and Economic
and fishing, for their livelihoods (Figure 27). Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, the Niger and the Losses from Weather,
Limited financial buffers and low levels of United Republic of Tanzania, food insecurity Climate and Water
Extremes (1970–2019)
(WMO-No. 1267). Geneva.

34 The poverty line is measured as the poverty head count at US$ 1.90 a day in terms of 2011 purchasing power parity.
35 IMF, 2020: Adapting to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. In: Regional Economic Outlook. Washington, DC, https://
www.elibrary.imf.org/view/books/086/28915-9781513536835-en/28915-9781513536835-en-book.xml.

29
Figure 26. Hazards of
greatest concern for the Flood
African Region. Source: Drought
WMO analysis of the
nationally determined Temperature increase
contributions (NDCs) of
Changes in percipitation patters
53 countries in Africa
Sea-level rise

Storm

Wildfire

Landslide

Dust storm

0 10 20 30 40 50

Number of Parties

increases by 5–20 percentage points with each Climate variability and change, and the expo-
flood or drought. 36 Additionally, associated sure and vulnerability of millions of people in
deterioration in health and in children’s school Africa, trigger migration, displacement and
attendance can worsen longer-term income related protection needs. Refugees and inter-
and gender inequalities. nally displaced people in Africa often reside in
climate hotspots, where they are particularly
In Africa, water bodies (seas, rivers and lakes) exposed to, and affected by, slow- and sud-
are endowed with abundant flora and fauna den-onset hazards, thus increasing their risk
and marine ecosystems – including diverse of secondary displacement and/or preventing
fish, other aquatic life and coral reefs. They their opportunity for return. Although most
are essential for many Africans’ livelihood, disaster- and climate-related displacement
water resources, food, power generation and in Africa is internal, displacement across
transportation activities, as well as critical for borders, which may be interrelated with
the continent’s blue economy development. situations of conflict or violence, also occurs,
However, rising ocean temperatures and with climate change acting as a threat multi-
ocean acidification aggravate the loss of plier. Invariably, among the worst affected are
fishery resources. refugees, internally displaced and stateless
people and migrants, as well as the poor,
women, children, the elderly and people
with disabilities.

100
Population below poverty line

80
(percent of total)

Figure 27. Population

living below the poverty 60
line and percent of GDP
40
from agriculture, in sub-
Saharan Africa. Source: 20 Rest of the world
World Development Sub-Saharan Africa
Indicators, World Bank 0
0 20 40 60 80
Agriculture (percent of GDP)

36 These results are based on an analysis of household surveys for Ethiopia (2015–2016), Malawi (2016–2017), Mali (2017–2018),
the Niger (2014) and the United Republic of Tanzania (2014–2015).

30
State of climate change policies
in Africa
NATIONALLY DETERMINED
Agriculture and food security
CONTRIBUTIONS
Water

The global climate response is framed by the Disaster risk reduction

Paris Agreement. 37 The Paris Agreement is Health

implemented through NDCs.38 NDCs are vol- Forestry
untary and guide the development of national Energy
climate change responses. They define both Coastalzone
mitigation and adaptation pathways, as well Ecosystem & biodiversity
as indications of the sources of financing such Infrastructure
as actions between domestic (unconditional)
Gender
and external (conditional) finance.
Tourism

Adaptation to climate change is the primary Sustainable urban planning

concern of African countries, as reflected in Education

the predominance of adaptation in their NDCs. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Priorities identified in the NDCs of African Number of Parties
countries reflect the agrarian nature of many
African economies (Figure 28).

In Africa, most countries (38) mentioned In particular, the vast majority of the parties Figure 28. Priority areas
in their NDCs the need for early warning identified disaster preparedness and response for adaptation for the
systems to help them to respond to weather-, as the top priority for disaster risk reduction, African Region. Source:
WMO analysis of the
water- and climate-related hazards, which are followed by detection, monitoring, analysis
NDCs of 53 countries in
becoming more frequent and more intense. and forecasting (Figure 29). Africa

Disaster Preparedness and Response

Detection, Monitoring, analysis and Forecasting Figure 29. Overview of

disaster risk reduction in
Disaster Risk Knowledge the NDCs. Source: WMO
analysis of NDCs 39
Warning Dissemination and Communication

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

37 Paris Agreement, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf

38 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Nationally determined contributions (NDCs),
ht tps: //unfccc.int /process-and-meetings/ the-paris-agreement /nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs/
nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs
39 Grasso V.F. et al., 2021: Climate shocks – Africa. In: State and Trends in Adaptation in Africa. Global Center on Adaptation,
forthcoming.

31
 60
non-GHG targets. Moreover, 18 countries have
GHG targets and actions, 6 have non-GHG
53 targets and actions, and 20 have GHG and
50 non-GHG targets and actions. Mitigation
45 45 contributions identified in African NDCs cover
41 various sectors (Figure 30), taking guidance
40 38 from the IPCC Guidelines.40
Number of Parties

33

30

COST OF NATIONALLY
20
DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS
The UNFCCC notes that the many forms of
10 climate finance include local, national or
transnational financing, which may be drawn
from public, private and alternative sources
0 of financing to mitigate and adapt to climate
Agriculture Energy Industry LULUCF Transport Waste change.41
Sector
The NDCs of sub-Saharan African countries
also specify technology transfer and capac-
ity-building needs, with only nine countries
Figure 30. Mitigation
In the NDCs, mitigation contributions are not including a technology transfer and
sectors covered by
African countries. stated in terms of targets (GHG and non-GHG), capacity-building component. The types of
Abbreviation: LULUCF, actions (policies, plans and projects), or a capacity-building and technology transfer
Land Use, Land-Use combination of targets and actions. Only needs expressed in these NDCs include
Change and Forestry. one African country (Democratic Republic technical capacities, institutional capacities
Source: WMO analysis of of the Congo) has GHG targets, while two (policies and frameworks) and skills devel-
the NDCs of 53 countries countries (Burundi and Gabon) have GHG and opment (Figure 31).
in Africa

Costing assessment
9 4
13 Legal and regulatory
framework development
29 Capacity-building
(institutional arrangements)
Figure 31. Types of 29
Capacity-building
capacity-building and (baseline studies)
technology transfer Feasibility study
needs expressed by the 16 Policy development
sub-Saharan countries.
Source: Adapted from Project development
Global Climate Change Training/skills
26 development
Alliance Plus (GCCA+), 17
2020 Awareness-raising
Technical capacity
5
17 Technology needs
8 14
Monitoring, reporting
and verification

40 IPCC, 2019: 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, https://www.ipcc.ch/
report/2019-refinement-to-the-2006-ipcc-guidelines-for-national-greenhouse-gas-inventories/.
41 UNF C C C, In t roduct ion t o climat e f inance, h t t ps: //unfccc. in t / t opics /climat e -f inance / t he -big-pict ure /
introduction-to-climate-finance

32
For 53 African countries, the African OPPORTUNITIES FOR REVISED
Climate Policy Centre calculates the cost NATIONALLY DETERMINED
at US$ 7.4 billion a year, which is the same CONTRIBUTIONS AS
order of magnitude as the projection made
by the Adaptation Gap Report of the United
DEVELOPMENT INSTRUMENTS
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in
(US$ 7–15 billion). This sum represents a very 2020 was an unprecedented public health
low percentage of the GDP of the continent crisis which immediately translated into a so-
(about 4.8% based on IMF figures).42 cioeconomic crisis. However, many countries
seized the opportunity to develop their revised
NDCs into tools to support green recovery
from the pandemic.46 Furthermore, as em-
IMPLEMENTATION OF NATIONALLY phasized by UNEP, a low-carbon pandemic
DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS recovery could cut 25% off the GHG emissions
expected in 2030, compared with the policies
Many of the NDCs of African countries are in place before the pandemic. Such a recovery
conditional upon receiving adequate financial, could far outstrip savings foreseen by the
technical and capacity-building support. implementation of unconditional NDC targets
Overall, Africa will need investments of over under the Paris Agreement and put the world
US$ 3 trillion in mitigation and adaptation close to the 2 °C pathway.47
by 2030 to implement its NDCs, 43 requiring
significant, accessible and predictable inflows
of conditional finance.

Africa continues to spend a significant

proportion of its income on adaptation to
climate change. It is estimated that coun-
tries spend between 2–9% of their GDP on
adaptation to climate change.44 The cost of
adapting to climate change in Africa will
rise to US$ 50 billion per year by 2050, even
assuming the international efforts to keep
global warming below 2 °C.45

42 African Development Bank (AfDB), 2019: Analysis of Adaptation Components of Africa’s Nationally Determined Contributions
(NDCs), https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Generic-Documents/Analysis_of_Adaptation_Com-
ponents_in_African_NDCs_2019.pdf.
43 AfDB, Climate change in Africa, https://www.afdb.org/en/cop25/climate-change-africa
44 United Nations Economic and Social Council, 2021: Background paper on Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate action),
and the corresponding goals of Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want, of the African Union (ECA/RFSD/2021/11).
45 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2021: Raising adaptation action through aligning NAPs and NDCs in
African LDCs, https://www.adaptation-undp.org/raising-adaptation-action-through-aligning-NAPs-NDCs-in-African.
46 UNDP, 2020: 20 Insights on NDCs in 2020, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Climate%20Prom-
ise-2020%20Insights_FINAL-spreads-compressed.pdf.
47 UNEP, 2020: Emissions Gap Report 2020, https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020.

33
 Strategic perspectives
AGENDA 2063 OF THE AFRICAN particular small island States, on strategies
UNION for the beneficiation of sectors that have
immediate potential for growth and job crea-
Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want is a shared tion, such as aquaculture in marine and fresh
strategic framework for inclusive growth and waters. Other opportunities include enhanced
sustainable development in Africa. It recog- science, technology and innovations for
nizes climate variability and climate change sustainable management, and collaborative
as one of the main challenges threatening management of shared water resources and
the continent’s realization of the goals of conservation. The mainstreaming of climate
Agenda 2063. In line with the Agenda, which is into these frameworks provides a broad ba-
aligned with the United Nations SDGs, several sis for addressing climate-related risks and
sectoral frameworks for which climate has im- opportunities.
plications and which address climate-related
issues have been put in place. The Integrated
African Strategy on Meteorology (Weather
and Climate Services) provides strategic COVID-19 RECOVERY PATHWAYS
guidance on the development and applica-
tion of weather, water and climate services, The containment of the adverse humanitarian,
which are critical for Africa’s climate-resilient social and economic costs of climate change
development, adaptation planning, early and its role in amplifying pandemics will
warning, and climate-informed policy and depend on both adaptation and mitigation
decision-making. The Malabo Declaration strategies. 48 The countries of the region
on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and can step up mitigation and achieve a green
Transformation for Shared Prosperity and economic recovery from the COVID-19 pan-
Improved Livelihoods commits to “enhancing demic through transitioning to green energy
resilience of livelihoods and production sys- sources, promoting carbon capture through
tems to climate variability and other related reforestation, 49,50 and limiting investment in
risks”. polluting capital with financial regulations.

The African Union Commission leads the con- Adaptation strategies, however, play a greater
tinent in the implementation of the disaster role in Africa, in particular sub-Saharan Africa,
risk reduction agenda. The Africa Regional where economies are particularly dependent
Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, the on climate-sensitive sectors and have limited
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction carbon emissions compared with advanced
2015-2030, and the programmes of action for and large emerging market economies. Rapid
the implementation of the Africa Regional implementation of adaptation strategies will
Strategy and of the Sendai Framework spur economic development and generate
are the key disaster risk reduction frame- more jobs in support of economic recovery
works. The African Union has developed from the COVID-19 pandemic.
and launched the 2050 Africa’s Integrated
Maritime Strategy to help tackle the problems Financing adaptation to climate change will
in a strategic, coordinated and sustainable be more cost-effective than frequent disaster
manner. Moreover, it has developed the Africa relief. For example, for sub-Saharan Africa,
Blue Economy Strategy, a framework that adaptation will be expensive – estimated at
defines Africa’s blue economy and helps to US$ 30–50 billion (2–3% of regional GDP)
coordinate activities at the continental level each year over the next decade – but savings
and provide support to member States, in from reduced post-disaster spending could

48 The Paris Agreement considers adaptation as a parallel component to mitigation. Most sub-Saharan African countries
have submitted some adaptation goals and measures as part of their climate strategies for the agreement. They will revisit
these strategies at the twenty-sixth session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in November 2021.
49 IMF, 2019: Fiscal Monitor: How to Mitigate Climate Change, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2019/09/12/
fiscal-monitor-october-2019.
50 Nyiwul, L., 2019: Climate change mitigation and adaptation in Africa: strategies, synergies, and constraints. In: Climate
Change and Global Development (T. Sequeira and L. Reis, eds.). Cham, Switzerland, Springer.

34
be three to twelve times the cost of upfront Documenting the resilience of communi-
investment in resilience and coping mecha- ties is as important as documenting their
nisms. Adaptation to climate change would vulnerabilities. Suc cessful adaptation
also benefit other development areas, such strategies developed by migrants, refugees
as resilience to pandemics, and ultimately and displaced communities to cope with
boost growth, reduce inequalities and sustain climate impacts and prevent displacement
macroeconomic stability. from occurring should be further analysed to
provide policymakers with solutions linked to
African countries need to enhance their capac- green recovery and nature-based solutions.
ities (institutional, human, infrastructural) for
climate-resilient development and adaptation When displacement occurs, existing pro-
planning. A key component of the required tection frameworks must apply wherever
capacities is an investment in hydromete- relevant, to ensure the protection of displaced
orological systems and services to improve people in need. Moreover, the participation of
monitoring, predictions and early warning affected people, including displaced persons,
against high-impact hazardous events and refugees, migrants and hosting communities,
tailor information for decision-making in especially women, is vital.
climate-affected sectors such as those pri-
oritized in African NDCs.

FILLING GAPS IN
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
ENSURING RESILIENCE FOR SYSTEMS AND SERVICES
VULNERABLE PEOPLE
NMHSs in Africa clearly recognize the impor-
Increased investment is essential for ensuring tance of hydrometeorological systems and
resilient societies, as the number of vulnerable services for adaptation in climate-sensitive
people in the continent continues to increase sectors, as 92% of the countries in Africa
as a result of pandemics, conflicts and multi- mention climate services in their NDCs.
plying factors associated with climate change NMHSs, as recognized by the Convention
and related disasters. Investment needs to of the World Meteorological Organization,
be boosted in the areas of prevention, pre- are fundamental components of the national
paredness, disaster risk reduction, policy infrastructure and play an important role in
engagement, legal guidance, data collection supporting vital socioeconomic functions
and analysis, as well as to reduce the environ- such as disaster reduction, agriculture and
mental impact of refugee settlements. This food security, water resources, health, energy
includes supporting the implementation of and transportation. This role necessitates the
the Agenda for the Protection of Cross-Border NMHSs to provide better early warning servic-
Displaced Persons in the Context of Disasters es to reduce disaster risks, as well as support
and Climate Change, the free movement national development and life-supporting
protocols, the Paris Agreement, the Sendai activities that are sensitive to weather, climate
Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, as and water outcomes. It requires conducting
well as the Global Compact on Refugees and systematic observations and data gathering
the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and that form the foundation for the monitoring
Regular Migration. Policies on environmental and prediction of weather, climate, water
migration and disaster displacement in Africa and related environmental conditions, as
need to be not only centred on protection, and well as the issuance of warnings, alerts and
evidence-based, but also solution-oriented, so advisories. Moreover, the effective and effi-
that they can be tailored to the actual needs cient delivery of weather, climate and water
and realities of the communities. services is critical, as well as collaboration
with the media to deliver forecasts and warn-
ings to the “last mile” communities and foster
international cooperation through exchange
of meteorological data and products that en-
able real-time and non-real-time forecasting

35
 activities. To perform these functions, NMHSs WMO Members assess their capacity for
must overcome a number of challenges, providing climate services and documenting
including: associated socioeconomic outcomes and
benefits through a survey that addresses
• Limited human expertise that reduces their functional capacities across the climate
capacities to take advantage of advances services value chain. Functional capacities
in science and technology to improve assessed by the survey are organized into
services; six groups: governance, basic systems, user
interface, capacity development, provision
• Inadequate obser vation net works in and application of climate services, and
countries, which contributes to poor rep- monitoring and evaluation. Many of these
resentation of weather systems, climate functional capacities are listed under “basic”,
patterns and status of water resources “essential”, “full” or “advanced” levels. The
affecting countries (the sparse observation percentage of functions satisfied in each
networks ultimately affect the quality and group for each capacity level provides a
range of services that the NMHSs can basis for assessing country capacities and
provide); needs in each area, as well as for categorizing
the overall level of service provided by the
• Inadequate telecommunication facilities Member according to WMO criteria.51 Data
and networks for the exchange of data are currently available for 84 of the 193 WMO
and products, which enable them to fulfil Members, of which 27 are from Africa.
their national mandates (most telecom-
munication networks used by NMHSs in Data show that there is a need to reinforce
Africa are obsolete, and this hampers the the service delivery aspects, especially
efficient flow of observations and products, monitoring and evaluation of socioeconomic
including multi-hazard early warnings); benefits (Figure 32). It is important to note
that service delivery is critical to meeting the
• Inadequate mechanisms for engagement decision-support needs in the climate-affect-
between NMHSs and users (customers), ed sectors identified in the NDCs as shown
which result in low demand and uptake in Figure 28.
of necessary decision-making information
and services; Recognizing the need for financial and tech-
nical assistance to address the challenges of
• Inadequate characterization of current sustaining observing infrastructure in Africa,
and future weather, climate and water WMO and the members of the Alliance for
outcomes and impacts, which may lead Hydromet Development are establishing the
to the absence of mainstreaming weather, Systematic Observations Financing Facility
climate and water considerations in the (SOFF). The SOFF will provide long-term
various socioeconomic sectors; support for the collection and sharing of me-
teorological observations in compliance with
• COVID-19 impacts on national economies, the WMO Global Basic Observing Network.
which have further reduced investments
in NMHSs from national budgets and
development partners.

51 WMO, 2019: 2019 State of Climate Services. Agriculture and Food Security (WMO-No. 1242). Geneva.

36
 Overall Capacity
100
90
Observing Networks Data & Data Management Monitoring
80 100 100 100
70
80 80 80
60
60 60 60
50
40 79 40 40 83
40 72 78 75 68
73% 68% 68% 56 56
62% 65% 52 53
30 20 20 20 44 37
20
28% 0 0 0
10

ll

c
ll

ll

d
ia

ia

ia
si

si

si
Fu

Fu

Fu
ce

ce

ce
nt

nt

nt
Ba

Ba

Ba
an

an

an
0

se

se

se
dv

dv

dv
Provision and

Es

Es

Es
Governance User Interface

A
Application of CS
Basic Capacity Monitoring
Systems Development and evaluation

Forecasting Systems User Interface Provision and Application of CS M&E

100 100 100 100

80 80 80 80

60 60 60 60

40 81 40 84 40 78 84 40
69 67
61 48 53 51 56
20 44 20 20 20
30 24
11 11
0 0 0 0
c

c
l

d
c

d
ia

ia

l
ia

ia

l
si

si
si

si
Fu

Fu
Fu

Fu
ce

ce
ce

ce
nt

nt
nt

nt
Ba

Ba
Ba

Ba
an

an
an

an
se

se
se

se
dv

dv
dv

dv
Es

Es
Es

Es
A

A
A

A
Figure 32. Capacities
across the climate
services value chain in
Africa by component for
27 WMO Members, cal-
culated as a percentage
of functions satisfied in
each component area for
each functional capacity
level. Abbreviations:
CS, climate services;
M&E, monitoring and
evaluation.

37
 DATASET DETAILS
HadCRUT.5.0.1.0: Morice, C.P., J.J. Kennedy, Lenssen, N. et al., 2019: Improvements in
N.A. Rayner, J.P. Winn, E. Hogan, R.E. Killick, the GISTEMP uncertainty model. Journal of
R.J.H. Dunn, T.J. Osborn, P.D. Jones and Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124 (12),
I.R. Simpson (in press) An updated assess- doi:10.1029/2018JD029522.
ment of near-surface temperature change
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doi:10.1029/2019JD032361. HadCRUT.5.0.1.0 Meteorol Soc. 2020; 146: 1999– 2049. https://
data were obtained from http://www.metof- doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803. Data obtained from
fice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5 on 14 February Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate
2021 and are © British Crown Copyright, Data Store. https://cds.climate.copernicus.
Met Office 2021, provided under an Open eu/#!/home
Government License, http://www.nationalar-
chives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ Berkeley Earth: Rohde, R. A. and Hausfather, Z.:
version/3/. The Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature
Record, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3469–3479,
NOA AGlobalTemp v5: Zhang, H.-M., B. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3469-2020 ,
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M. Smith, NOAA Global Surface Temperature yearth.org/data/
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3 3, 1351–1379, ht tps: //doi.org /10.1175/
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version 4. NASA Goddard Institute for Space EMC CMB GLOBAL Reyn_SmithOIv2 monthly
Studies, https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/. sst (columbia.edu)

38
LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTORS
Editors: Ernest Afiesimama (WMO), Omar Baddour (WMO), Romeo Sosthene Nkurunziza
(NORCAP/ACMAD)

Physical aspects: Anny Cazenave (LEGOS), Andre Kamga (ACMAD), John Kennedy (Met
Office), Romeo Sosthene Nkurunziza (NORCAP/ACMAD¬¬¬), Rainer Prinz (University of
Innsbruck), Markus Ziese (DWD)

Impacts and policy: Hind Aïssaoui Bennani (IOM), Jorge Alvar-Beltrán (FAO), Hicham
Assabir (FAO), Seung Mo Choi (IMF), Elena Conte (FAO), Alessandro Costantino (FAO), Keith
Cressman (FAO), Solomon Dawit (Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture
and Food Security (CCAFS)), Dunja Dujanović (FAO), Cyril Ferrand (FAO), Florence Geoffroy
(Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)), Nora Guerten
(FAO), Ana Heureux (FAO), James Kinyangi (AfDB), Lisa Lim Ah Ken (IOM), Niccolò Lombardi
(FAO), James Murombedzi (African Climate Policy Centre), Jolly Wasambo (African Union
Commission)

CONTRIBUTING NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL

SERVICES, REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTRES AND OFFICES
ACMAD (Pan African RCC): Maoro Beavogui, Ibrahim Dan Dije, Andre Kamga, Romeo
Sosthene Nkurunziza, Godefroid Nshimirimana

East Africa (ICPAC RCC): Zachary Atheru, Paulino Omay, George Otieno, Hussein Seid

West Africa (Economic Community of West African States RCC): Bernard Kouakou Dje,
Kamoru Lawal, Ousmane Ndiaye, Seydou Tinni Halidou

North Africa (Northern Africa RCC): Soumaya Ben Rached, Salama A. Rahuma, Rachid Sebari

Central Africa (ECCAS RCC): Pierre Balomog, Alphonse Kanga, Mbaiguedem Miambaye,
Pascal Moudi Igri, Joel-Urbain Teteya, Didier Yontchang

Southern Africa (Southern African Development Community RCC): Abiodun Adeola,

Prithiviraj Booneeady, Charles Bwalya Chisanga, Obadias Cossa, Andries Kruger, Mathias
Rabemananjara

South-western Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean Commission RCC): Ram K. Dhurmea, Surekha
Ramessur

WMO Regional Office for Africa: Ernest Afiesimama, Mariane Diop Kane, Bernard Edward
Gomez, Mark Majodina, Amos Makarau, Joseph Mukabana

WMO Secretariat: Yinka R. Adebayo, Omar Baddour, Maxx Dilley, Veronica Grasso, Filipe
Lúcio, Juerg Lutherbacher, Nakiete Msemo, Rodica Nitu, Claire Ransom, Jose Alvaro Silva

39
 For more information, please contact:

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