Hindawi Publishing Corporation

Journal of Climatology
Volume 2016, Article ID 4289454, 18 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/4289454

Research Article
Changes in Climate Extremes over North Thailand, 1960–2099

Mohammad Badrul Masud,1 Peeyush Soni,2 Sangam Shrestha,3 and Nitin K. Tripathi3
1
Global Institute for Water Security, School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan,
11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, SK, Canada S7N 3H5
2
Agricultural Systems and Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology,
P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand
3
School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand

Correspondence should be addressed to Mohammad Badrul Masud; badal [email protected]

Received 4 September 2015; Revised 10 January 2016; Accepted 14 January 2016

Academic Editor: Pedro Ribera

Copyright © 2016 Mohammad Badrul Masud et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons
Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is
properly cited.

This study analyzes 24 climate extreme indices over North Thailand using observed data for daily maximum and minimum
temperatures and total daily rainfall for the 1960–2010 period, and HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) and PRECIS Regional
Climate Model simulated data for the 1960–2100 period. A statistical downscaling tool is employed to downscale GCM outputs.
Variations in and trends of historical and future climates are identified using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s
slope. Temperature extreme indices showed a significant rising trend during the observed period and are expected to increase
significantly with an increase in summer days and tropical nights in the future. A notable decline in the number of cool days and
nights is also expected in the study area while the number of warm days and nights is expected to increase. There was an insignificant
decrease in total annual rainfall, number of days with rainfall more than 10 and 20 mm. However, the annual rainfall is projected
to increase by 9.65% in the future 2011–2099 period compared to the observed 1960–2010 period.

1. Introduction General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide a reason-

able basis for estimating future climates; however, outputs
Analyses of climate change, climate variability, and their from GCM cannot be applied directly in many environmental
extremes are becoming more important as they clearly affect and water resources protection studies because of some limi-
the human society and are essential for exploration of eco- tations, which include poor representation and simulation of
logical and societal changes. One of the motivations for such
local-scale processes and coarse spatial resolution. Therefore,
analyses is to establish if and how global warming [1] might
these issues can be addressed by downscaling approaches.
have influenced the climate on a global as well as on regional
First approach of downscaling (statistical downscaling) cli-
scale. In the environment and on the economic activities,
the impact of climate change is reflected by the change of mate data is through the use of statistical regressions that
frequency, duration, and intensity of climate extreme events. establish the relationship between large-scale variables, such
After the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental as the driving factors derived from GCMs, to local level cli-
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), projections and detection mate conditions. In the second approach (dynamical down-
of climate change are no longer relegated to global averages scaling) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are embedded into
and have expanded to include extremes [2]. Various climate GCMs. The RCM is essentially a numerical model in which
extreme events such as more recurrent and more intense GCMs are used to fix boundary conditions. So, applying a
droughts, floods, cyclones, and extreme rainfall events pose downscaling technique is recommended for regional-scale
increasing and, oftentimes, limitless threats to environment, analysis in IPCC-AR4 [5]. More recently, downscaling is
water resources, and agricultural production [3, 4]. widely applied in climatology for scenario construction and
2 Journal of Climatology

simulation/prediction of mean, minimum, and maximum air North Thailand is a critical area for a number of regional
temperature and rainfall [6–8]. sustainable developmental issues. The mountainous land-
A number of investigations have attempted to identify scape has relatively high forest cover. It contains the upper
observed and projected future changes in climate extremes reaches of most of the watersheds feeding into the Chao
on a global scale (e.g., [9–12]). A study on the variability Phraya River system, including the largest one, the Ping River
in occurrence of extreme climate events at a global scale Basin (PRB, catchment area of about 35,000 km2 ). This basin
during the second half of the twentieth century [9] showed is an important wet-season source of water stored in the
general increase in warm nights, decrease in the number of downstream Bhumibol Reservoir (located in Tak Province
frost days, more frequent heavy rainfall events, less frequent of North Thailand), which serves irrigation and commercial
cold temperature extremes, and decrease in the intra-annual users during a lengthy dry season when drought may be
extreme temperature range. Alexander et al. [10] showed that problematic [18]. The basin area was previously covered
over 70% of global land area observed significant increase by subtropical forests that have been slowly converted to
in the annual occurrence of warm nights and significant agricultural lands in the recent past due to a host of economic,
decrease in occurrence of cold nights. Projected changes social, and political drivers that have commonly been driving
in precipitation and dryness extremes are more ambiguous land-cover/land-use changes through montane mainland
than that in temperature extremes at the end of 21st century Southeast Asia [19]. Greater Chiang Mai city area experienced
[11]. Another study by Donat et al. [12], a research to a farm-to-city transition where built-up areas increased from
improve global gridded dataset of extreme indices (HadEX 9% to over 33% between 1989 and 2009 [20–22]. The effects
to HadEX2, [10]), showed widespread significant changes of urbanization that include the construction of major ring
in temperature extremes with warming especially for those roads and changes in the Ping River bank and floodplains are
indices derived from minimum temperature. Precipitation blamed for causing more serious floods in recent years [21,
also showed similar changes but the changes were much more 23–25]. Flooding and mudslides affected a large area in North
spatially heterogeneous compared to temperature changes. Thailand, including Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phayao, and
A few studies have examined trends in climate extremes, Mae Hong Song Provinces [26]. The 2011 Chao Phraya River
other than changes in mean values across the Southeast Asia. flood that caused $45 billion damage in Thailand highlights
Hence, little is known about trends in extremes of temper- the difficulty of water management [27, 28]. Despite today’s
ature and rainfall in this region. Manton et al. [13] analysed popularization of irrigation, rainfed crop fields remain in a
climate extreme indices for historical period in the Southeast large part of North Thailand. Since this type of cultivation
Asia and South Pacific. Regional studies across the Asia– largely depends on weather conditions, it has potential
Pacific region have shown significant increases in occur- vulnerability against future climate changes accompanied by
rences of annual number of hot days and warm nights and global warming. Changes in climate extremes have relations
decreases in occurrences of annual number of cool days and and significant impact on all of the anthropogenic activities
cold nights over the past few decades (e.g., [13, 14]). Results and natural hazards. These issues constituted the motivation
from Manton et al. [13] revealed significant decrease in the for this research. The purpose of the study is not to find
number of rainy days, significant increase in the proportion out the best climate model rather than identifying the past
of total rainfall from extreme rainfall, significant increase in and future changes of climate extremes in the regional scale
the minimum and maximum temperature, increase in the through different emission scenarios. Therefore, in this study,
number of warm nights, and decrease in the number of cold observed trends in temperature and rainfall extremes in
nights and cool days at Nan Province of North Thailand. North Thailand were investigated over the last 51 years. Also,
Chinvanno et al. [15] developed high-resolution climate to detect the possible changes of extremes up to the year
scenarios using PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for 2100, assessments of regional climate projections were made,
Impact Studies) RCM and showed that, during the observed derived from PRECIS regional model and HadCM3 (Hadley
period, most part of the North and Northeastern Thailand Centre Coupled Model version 3) global model.
had 3-4 hot months over the year, while the Central Plain The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents an
and the Southern Region had slightly longer summertime. overview of the study area and data used in this research,
Preliminary finding on MM5-RCM simulations of future followed by methodology in Section 3. In Section 4, results
projection by Kreasuwan [16] during 2010–2029 revealed that of various analyses are presented and finally conclusions of
the study are given in Section 5.
the average temperature in Thailand will increase slightly,
and this trend will continue further in the future (during
2040–2059). In a study of Southeast Asia START (System 2. Study Area and Data Used
for Analysis, Research and Training) Regional Centre (SEA 2.1. Geography. Administratively as well as geographically
START RC) [17], it was found that the night time temperature Thailand has four regions, namely, the Northeastern, North,
will get warmer than the daytime temperature by the 2045– Central Plain, and Southern. This study focused on four
2065 period. For the Northern mountainous and valley zone, provinces of North Thailand, namely, Chiang Mai, Chiang
annual average maximum and minimum temperature are Rai, Lamphun, and Tak (Figure 1). These provinces cover an
expected to rise from 32.41 to 35.82∘ C and 20.43 to 24.82∘ C, important drainage area of the PRB and have a significant
respectively, when compared to the median value among the impact on country’s agricultural activities. The Ping River, a
results from 8 GCMs. major tributary of the Chao Praya River, plays a vital role in
Journal of Climatology 3

98∘ E 99∘ E 100∘ E 3. Methodology

3.1. Downscaling Climate Data. The SDSM [30] calculates
20∘ N Chiang Rai 20∘ N statistical relationships, based on multiple linear regression
techniques, between large-scale (the predictors) and local (the
predictand) climates. There are three implicit assumptions
19∘ N 19∘ N involved in statistical downscaling [31]. Firstly, the predic-
Chiang Mai
tors are variables of relevance and are realistically modeled
Lamphun
by the host GCM. Secondly, the empirical relationship is
18∘ N 18∘ N also valid under altered climatic conditions. Thirdly, the
employed predictors fully represent the climate change signal.
These relationships are developed using observed weather
17∘ N Tak 17∘ N data, assuming that these relationships will remain valid
in the future, that can be used to obtain downscaled local
N information for some future time period by driving the
16∘ N W E 16∘ N relationships with GCM-derived predictors. The observed
Thailand large-scale predictors have been derived from the National
S (km)
0 25 50 100 150 200
Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis
Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS
dataset [32]. This model becomes more accepted in recent
∘ ∘
98 E 99 E 100∘ E years due to its applicability in a wide region and simplicity of
Figure 1: Location map of the study area in Thailand. establishing a relationship between predictor and predictand
variables for future time zone [33].
Substantial differences may exist between projections
from climate models; use of a single model does not pro-
the country’s economy. The Bumibol Dam on the Ping River vide results that adequately reflect the uncertainty inherent
adds additional importance to this region. Geographically, in regional climate scenario generation [34]. This study
this region is mountainous and hilly with narrow valleys incorporates output of two models for a reliable projection
and occasional intermountain depressions forming a highly of future climate. The SDSM is used to downscale the
complex relief that merges across the international borders scenarios (A2 and B2) of HadCM3 by using the predictor
into Myanmar, Laos, and Yunnan (China), situated between variables developed by NCEP. HadCM3 was chosen for this
14.56∘ –20.27∘ North and 97.20∘ –101.47∘ East. These north- analysis because it is one of four sets of climate model
south oriented hill ridges are parallel from west to east and (HadCM2, HadCM3, CGCM2, and CSIRO) output provided
intersected by some major valeeys, particularly those near with SDSM. The SDSM has successfully been used in several
Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai provinces. It experiences a strong other downscaling studies [35–37]. Before forecasting the
monsoon climate with heavy summer rains between mid- future climate variables, SDSM has been validated for the
May or June and October but experiences dry weather in 1980–1989 period. The SEA START RC used ECHAM4 GCM
winter because of the northeast monsoon which is a main (resolution 280 × 280 km2 ; Max Plank Institute, Germany)
factor that controls the climate of this region. The northern for climate scenario generation and PRECIS RCM (developed
part of the country usually experiences an extended period of at the Hadley Centre at the Meteorological Office, spatial
warm weather because of its inland nature and tropical lati- resolution of 25 × 25 km2 and emission scenarios B1, B2, A2,
tude zone [29]. In this region, the average annual temperature and A1FI) for downscaling the GCM data for specific region.
ranges from 20 to 34∘ C and the average annual rainfall varies The main reason to select PRECIS RCM in this research
between 1000 and 1800 mm depending on the location. is that SEA START RC specially handles Southeast Asian
region to predict more precise climate and freely provide
2.2. Data Used. Observed daily minimum temperature (∘ C), data to researchers. Hence, A2 and B2 scenarios of PRECIS
maximum temperature (∘ C), and total daily rainfall (mm) RCM data were collected from Southeast Asian START
data were collected from Thailand Meteorological Depart- Regional Centre website (http://www.start.or.th/), where data
ment for the period of 1960 to 2010 for Chiang Rai, Chiang are readily available to download.
Mai, and Tak provinces (Table 1). In Lamphun Province A2 and B2 scenarios are the storylines which describe
recording of climate data started from 1981. Two sets of model the development of different social, economic, technological,
data, each of which has two SRES scenarios (A2 and B2), environmental, and policy dimensions. A2 is the future of
were used in this study to the end of 21st century (1960– the differentiated world, with emphasis on human wealth.
2099). The first set of data was collected from SEA START RC, Major underlying themes include strengthening regional
where the climate data were downscaled using PRECIS RCM, cultural identities, with an emphasis on family values and
which used ECHAM4 GCM data as an initial condition. local traditions, high population growth, and less concern for
Another set of climate data was produced by using a Statistical rapid economic development. B2 scenario emphasizes on sus-
Downscaling tool (Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)) tainability and equity (Mixed Green Bag) and local solutions
for the coarse resolution climate variables obtained from to economic, social, and environmental sustainability in the
HadCM3 GCM. world [38].
4 Journal of Climatology

Table 1: Detail information for meteorological station.

Station name Station code Data availability Elevation (m) Latitude (∘ N) Longitude (∘ E)
Chiang Rai 303201 1960–2010 393 19.92 99.83
Chiang Mai 327501 1960–2010 311 18.77 98.97
Lamphun 329201 1981–2010 296 18.57 99.03
Tak 376201 1960–2010 98 16.88 99.15

3.2. Extreme Indices. Extreme climatic events, through the presented for Chiang Rai Province and selected results for
prolonged hot and cold spells, have numerous impacts on a other provinces.
nation which include significant loss of life, agriculture, pro-
duction, water resources, forestry, energy, and infrastructure. 4.1. Trend Analysis for Observed Period (1960–2010). Trends
It is essential to observe the climate extremes and continue to and statistical results of temperature extremes are presented
look for identification of changes in extremes as our resources in Table 3, where increasing trend of temperature is experi-
and infrastructure are becoming more vulnerable to ruthless enced in the observed period. Both maximum and minimum
and extreme weather [39]. All of the extreme indices (13 for temperature indices (TXx, TXn, TNx, and TNn) increased
temperature and 11 for rainfall, Table 2) are calculated from with significant trend, with the fact that minimum temper-
the daily observation of temperature and rainfall by using ature was increased more than maximum temperature. The
RClimDex software [40]. These indices are recommended by increasing trend of summer days (SU35) and tropical nights
the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Expert (TR25) favored the increment of temperature in the study
Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring, and Indices area except in Chiang Rai Province. Warm days and warm
(ETCCDMI), adopted by the IPCC AR4. Data quality control nights (TX90p and TN90p) also increased with very high
is a necessary step before the analysis of climate variation, significant trend whereas cool days (TX10p) and cool nights
because erroneous outliers can impact seriously on trends (TN10p) decreased [13, 49] with the same trend along with
[41]. For this, each data point was examined based on neigh- mild to steep slope. Similar results were found by another
boring data, as well as on the understanding of the climate study of Sharma and Babel [50] for Western Thailand. In
of the region. The data were edited if the problem is obvious the observed period, significant increases in warm extremes
(e.g., negative precipitation, 195 degrees changed to 19.5, and (TX90p, TN90p, SU35, TR25, and WSDI) were experienced
maximum temperature less than minimum temperature), set in North Thailand where reverse trend was observed in case
to missing if it is clearly a problem with unknown solution, or of cold extremes (TX10p, TN10p, and CSDI) which is also
kept if deemed probably valid. favored by the negative trend of diurnal temperature range
(DTR) except in Lamphun Province (Figure 2). Zhang et al.
3.3. Trend Analysis. The trend of climate extremes presented [51] and Liu et al. [52] reported decreasing trend of the diurnal
in this paper is calculated by using the nonparametric Mann- temperature range (DTR) because of rapid increase of the
Kendall (MK) test [39, 40] that has been recommended by minimum temperature in recent decades. Based on Mann-
the World Meteorological Organization in assessing trends Kendall normalized test statistic 𝑍 and Sen’s slope value, Tak
in environmental time series data [42]. The test has been Province experienced relatively hot climate compared to any
widely used in trend detection analysis for hydrological and other provinces whereas Lamphun observed relatively cool
meteorological data [12, 43–47]. It is nearly as powerful as its climate.
parametric competitors. This method was chosen because it All rainfall extremes showed insignificant trend except
does not consider any distribution of the variable and some consecutive dry days (CDD) which was increasing with
of the climate indices do not consider Gaussian distribution significant trend during the observed period of 1960–2010
[12]. To estimate the true slope of an existing trend (as change (Table 3) in Chiang Rai and Tak provinces. Similar results
per year), Sen’s nonparametric method [48] is used. Sen’s were observed in another study of Sharma and Babel [50].
slope method gives a robust estimation of the trend and is Except Lamphun Province, negative trends of PRCPTOT and
used in various trend analyses of climate data [10, 12, 42]. R10 indicate that the rainfall was decreasing (Figure 2) over
Different significant levels (10%, 5%, 1%, and 0.1%) were used the study area. This less rainfall distribution supports the
to consider a trend to be statistically significant. negative trend of consecutive wet days (CWD).

4. Results and Discussion 4.2. Seasonal Variation in Observed Period. During observed
period, maximum temperature (𝑇max ) showed a significant
In this section of the paper, results of various analyses ranging increasing trend in all seasons except spring which has
from trend analysis for observed period are presented first, an insignificant negative trend in all provinces. Minimum
followed by seasonal variation of climate parameters, model temperature (𝑇min ) increased significantly in Chiang Rai
performance evaluation, and, finally, projected changes of Province in all seasons, which is followed by Tak, Chiang Mai,
climate parameters for the future period. Where necessary, and Lamphun provinces. The Mann-Kendall test statistic 𝑍
link to other related studies is established in different sub- showed that 𝑇min has increasing trend more than 𝑇max . In
sections. For brevity, analyses of climate extremes results are mountainous provinces like Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai, the
Journal of Climatology 5

37 26
y = 0.019637 ∗ x − 3.6711 y = 0.042097 ∗ x − 60.2932

36.5 25

24
36
23

TNx (∘ C)
TXx (∘ C)

35.5
22
35
21

34.5 20

34 19
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year
12.5 1700
y = −0.0049698 ∗ x + 21.4338 y = −2.8158 ∗ x + 6846.6096
1600
12 1500

1400
PRCPTOT (mm)

11.5
DTR (∘ C)

1300

1200
11
1100

10.5 1000

900

10 800
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year
160 55
y = 0.66971 ∗ x − 1245.3041 y = −0.10581 ∗ x + 248.8849

140 50

120 45
CDD (days)

R10 (days)

100 40

80 35

60 30

40 25
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year

Figure 2: Monthly indices of temperature and rainfall extremes for the observed period 1960 to 2010 averaged across the study area. The
dotted line is a trend-line computed by least square fit and corresponding regression equation is showed for each index.
6 Journal of Climatology

Table 2: Definition of extreme temperature and rainfall indices used in this study.

ID Indicator name Definition Unit

Temperature indices
SU Summer days Annual count when daily max temperature (TX) > 35∘ C Days
TR Tropical nights Annual count when daily minitemperature (TN) > 25∘ C Days
∘
TXx Hottest day Monthly maximum value of daily max temperature C
∘
TNx Warmest night Monthly maximum value of daily min temperature C
∘
TXn Coldest day Monthly minimum value of daily max temperature C
∘
TNn Coldest night Monthly minimum value of daily min temperature C
TN10p Cool nights Percentage of days when TN < 10th percentile Days
TX10p Cool days Percentage of days when TX < 10th percentile Days
TN90p Warm nights Percentage of days when TN > 90th percentile Days
TX90p Warm days Percentage of days when TX > 90th percentile Days
∘
DTR Diurnal temp range Monthly mean difference between TX and TN C
WSDI Warm spell duration index Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX > Days
90th percentile
CSDI Cold spell duration index Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TN < 10th Days
percentile
Rainfall indices
CDD Consecutive dry days Maximum number of consecutive days with RR < 1 mm Days
CWD Consecutive wet days Maximum number of consecutive days with RR ≥ 1 mm Days
PRCPTOT Annual total rainfall Annual total rainfall (RR ≥ 1 mm) mm
R10 Moderate rainy days Annual count of days when PRCP ≥ 10 mm Days
R20 Heavy rainy days Annual count of days when PRCP ≥ 20 mm Days
R100 Very heavy rainy days Annual count of days when PRCP ≥ 100 mm, 100 is user defined Days
threshold
R95p Very wet days Annual total PRCP when RR > 95th percentile mm
R99p Extremely wet days Annual total PRCP when RR > 99th percentile mm
RX1day Max 1-day rainfall amount Monthly maximum 1-day rainfall mm
Rx5day Max 5-day rainfall amount Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day rainfall mm
SDII Simple daily intensity index The ratio of annual total rainfall to the number of wet days (≥1 mm) mm/day

temperature is observed to be higher than other provinces. A and rainfall data. Later on, these variables were used for the
similar trend was identified by Zongxing et al. [41]. They also calibration of the model to develop a statistical relationship
noticed the influence of topography on the regional pattern with the observed data and GCM output. For checking
of temperature indices in Southwestern China; significant the consistency of observed and simulated maximum and
trends were on the Eastern Xizang Plateau and the Hengduan minimum temperature and cumulative rainfall data, 1980s
Mountains, while stations with insignificant trends were in was taken as the base period. Results (Figure 3) revealed
the Sichuan Basin and on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. that none of the SRES of two models is fully unswerving
There was no significant trend of rainfall detected during the with the observed data. However, based on the coefficient
observed period except winter (downward trend) and spring of determination, both PRECIS RCM and HadCM3 GCM
(upward trend) in Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai provinces, have consistency with the base period. Similar performance
respectively (Table 4). was observed for HadCM3 GCM, which was downscaled
using SDSM model in another study by Deb and Babel
4.3. Model Performance Evaluation. Climate parameters can [53]. The maximum temperature difference between the
theoretically be projected by using appropriate GCM and observed and simulated values was about ±0.5∘ C, which
RCM for intended place, but this does not imply that all the imply that two models are reliable to simulate future data.
data will perfectly correspond to the real situation. Some data Both models showed higher accuracy in case of predicting the
may be consistent with a particular time of month or year rainfall compared to the base period. The average difference
while other may not. To evaluate model performance, after was ±60 mm for all provinces except Tak which shows the
screening all the 26 GCM variables in the SDSM model for maximum difference for HadCM3 GCM and minimum for
significant correlation, 12 out of 26 variables were found sig- PRECIS RCM. This performance evaluation is not to select
nificantly correlated (𝑝 < 0.05) to the observed temperature the best model to simulate future scenarios rather than to
Journal of Climatology 7

Table 3: Observed trend of temperature and rainfall indices.

Provinces
Annual series Chiang Rai Chiang Mai Lamphun Tak
MK 𝑍 Sen’s slope MK 𝑍 Sen’s slope MK 𝑍 Sen’s slope MK 𝑍 Sen’s slope
Temperature indices
SU35 −0.12 0.000 0.87 0.143 1.46 0.500 2.47∗ 0.385
TR25 −0.32 2.54∗ 0.161 1.56 0.364 4.11∗∗∗ 0.857
TXx 2.32∗ 0.011 3.28∗∗ 0.019 2.44∗ 0.029 2.76∗∗ 0.017
TNx 5.71∗∗∗ 0.034 3.10 ∗∗
0.019 2.07 ∗
0.021 3.53∗∗∗ 0.028
TXn 2.71∗∗ 0.025 1.80+ 0.018 −0.32 −0.005 2.12∗ 0.017
TNn 5.56∗∗∗ 0.038 5.50∗∗∗ 0.041 2.04∗ 0.018 5.20∗∗∗ 0.047
TN10p −6.20∗∗∗ −0.220 −4.82 ∗∗∗
−0.185 — — −4.21∗∗∗ −0.180
TX10p −3.35∗∗∗ −0.080 −1.99∗ −0.064 — — −3.17∗∗ −0.093
TN90p 6.64∗∗∗ 0.684 3.66∗∗∗ 0.224 — — 4.34∗∗∗ 0.328
TX90p 4.42∗∗∗ 0.290 3.66∗∗∗ 0.246 — — 3.90∗∗∗ 0.234
DTR −3.16∗∗ −0.017 −2.75∗∗ −0.017 1.09 0.013 −1.44 −0.008
WSDI 5.23∗∗∗ 0.545 3.81∗∗∗ — — — 3.65∗∗∗ —
CSDI −1.00 0.000 −0.644 — — — −1.06 —
Rainfall indices
CDD 1.67+ 0.462 1.36 0.368 0.04 0.059 2.39∗ 0.676
CWD −1.27 −0.034 0.17 0.000 1.15 0.000 −0.34 0.000
PRCPTOT −0.02 −0.192 −0.84 −1.747 0.57 4.092 −0.34 −0.594
R10 −0.48 −0.029 −0.63 −0.036 0.21 0.000 −0.38 0.000
R20 0.33 0.000 −1.29 −0.056 0.04 0.000 0.26 0.000
R100 −0.74 — 0.27 — 1.27 1.32 —
R95P 0.02 0.024 0.02 0.057 1.28 3.450 0.36 0.476
R99P −1.54 −0.362 1.20 0.000 2.55∗ 3.666 1.29 0.000
RX1day −0.98 −0.241 1.92+ 0.429 1.23 0.495 1.02 0.260
RX5day −1.29 −0.428 0.65 0.221 2.12∗ 1.333 1.47 0.726
SDII 0.55 0.012 −0.46 −0.006 0.46 0.008 1.90+ 0.031
V. Heavy −1.49 — −1.46 — 1.27 — 0.30 —
Heavy 0.00 — 0.74 — 1.62 — 1.57 —
Moderate 1.21 −0.069 −0.38 −0.024 0.80 0.182 −1.13 −0.111
+
Moderately significant, ∗ significant, ∗∗ highly significant, and ∗∗∗ very highly significant.
Moderately significant = 90% level of confidence, significant = 95% level of confidence, highly significant = 99.9% level of confidence, and very highly significant
= 99.99% level of confidence.

Table 4: Observed seasonal trend of temperature and rainfall.

Chiang Rai Chiang Mai Lamphun Tak

Climatic parameter Season
MK 𝑍 Sen’s slope MK 𝑍 Sen’s slope MK 𝑍 Sen’s slope MK 𝑍 Sen’s slope
∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗∗
Winter 3.80 0.034 3.28 0.028 2.68 0.057 3.20∗∗ 0.032
Spring −0.80 −0.006 0.31 0.003 0.00 0 −0.08 −0.001
𝑇max
Summer 2.08∗ 0.011 2.36∗ 0.016 1.82+ 0.02 2.47∗ 0.016
Autumn 3.78∗∗∗ 0.026 3.01∗∗ 0.019 2.07∗ 0.027 3.33∗∗∗ 0.021
Winter 3.62∗∗∗ 0.041 4.26∗∗∗ 0.053 2.25∗ 0.053 3.78∗∗∗ 0.05
Spring 6.22∗∗∗ 0.042 4.42∗∗∗ 0.044 2.43∗ 0.037 2.73∗∗ 0.015
𝑇min
Summer 7.02∗∗∗ 0.033 3.48∗∗∗ 0.014 0.86 0.007 4.00∗∗∗ 0.019
∗∗∗ ∗
Autumn 3.40 0.025 2.45 0.014 −0.93 −0.014 3.43∗∗∗ 0.022
Winter −1.65+ −0.004 −0.23 0.000 0.20 0.000 −0.45 0.000
Spring 1.62 0.020 1.66+ 0.015 0.14 0.005 0.36 0.007
Rainfall
Summer −1.41 −0.027 −1.45 −0.020 0.71 0.027 0.52 0.007
Autumn −0.15 −0.002 −0.93 −0.012 −0.82 −0.023 −0.34 −0.007
+
Moderately significant, ∗ significant, ∗∗ highly significant, and ∗∗∗ very highly significant.
8 Journal of Climatology

2000 40
Simulated cumulative rainfall (mm)

1500

Simulated monthly Tmax (∘ C)

35

1000

30

500

R2 = 0.990 R2 = 0.797
R2 = 0.996 R2 = 0.5767
0 25
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25 30 35 40
Observed cumulative rainfall (mm) Observed monthly Tmax (∘ C)

PRECIS (A2) PRECIS (A2)

HadCM3 (A2) HadCM3 (A2)
(a) (b)
25
Simulated monthly Tmin (∘ C)

20

15

R2 = 0.726
R2 = 0.700
10
10 15 20 25
Observed monthly Tmin (∘ C)

PRECIS (A2)
HadCM3 (A2)
(c)

Figure 3: Comparison of observed and simulated cumulative rainfall (a), monthly maximum temperature (b), and monthly minimum
temperature (c) for 1980–1989 of Chiang Rai. Results for the case of PRECIS RCM are shown in blue color and those for the case of HadCM3
GCM in red.

provide more alternatives to know about the future climate climate models for the 1960–2099 period, which includes the
and their extremes. observed 1960–2010 period and simulated 2011–2099 period
for four provinces of North Thailand.
4.4. Future Temperature and Rainfall Scenarios. In this Average maximum and minimum temperature variations
research, two IPCC scenarios are developed by using two in the future period relative to the observed period are
Journal of Climatology 9

Maximum temperature Minimum temperature

Temperature (∘ C)
25
Temperature (∘ C)

35

20
30
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s

1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s
Decade Decade
PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2) PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2)
PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2) PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2)
(a)
Maximum temperature Minimum temperature

Temperature ( C)
25

∘
Temperature (∘ C)

35

20
30

1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s

Decade Decade
PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2) PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2)
PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2) PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2)
(b)
Maximum temperature Minimum temperature
Temperature ( C)

25
∘
Temperature (∘ C)

35

20
30
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s

1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s

2070s
2080s
2090s
Decade Decade
PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2) PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2)
PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2) PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2)
(c)
Maximum temperature Minimum temperature
Temperature ( C)

25
∘
Temperature (∘ C)

35

20
30
1960s
1970s

1960s
1970s
1980s

1980s
1990s

1990s
2000s

2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s

2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s

Decade Decade
PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2) PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2)
PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2) PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2)
(d)

Figure 4: Average monthly maximum and minimum temperature variation in the future for (a) Chiang Rai, (b) Chiang Mai, (c) Lamphun,
and (d) Tak. Black solid thick line up to 2000s indicates the observed data.
10 Journal of Climatology

temperature (∘ C)
2 trend of increasing monthly minimum temperature is higher
1.5
Maximum

1 than that of monthly maximum temperature (Figure 5).

0.5 As a result of higher interannual variability, prediction
0
−0.5 and identification of trends are less apparent for rainfall than
−1 temperature. However, each model and scenario evaluated
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
project an increase in average annual rainfall of 9.65% for
Year 2011–2099 compared to the observed average annual rainfall
1235 mm. Total annual rainfall projections for the range of
temperature (∘ C)

4
SRES suggest small differences (Figure 6) for Chiang Rai.
Minimum

2
0 For the period 2011–2099, the HadCM3 GCM and PRECIS
−2 RCM models project increase in total annual rainfall by
−4 20.95% and 18.46%, respectively, above the observed period
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
mean of 1725 mm in Chiang Rai Province. PRECIS RCM
projects increases in total rainfall but HadCM3 GCM projects
Year
decreases for Chiang Mai and Lamphun. This state is opposite
Figure 5: Multimodel and multiensembles temperature anomaly for Tak Province where HadCM3 GCM projects increases in
with respect to the control period 1970 to 2000. Results for the case total rainfall. Future projection of monsoon rainfall is quite
of observed period (observed data) are shown in blue and those for complicated due to the presence of aerosols (carbon aerosols)
the case of future period (simulated data) in red. The black solid is in the Asian monsoon [55]. However, the rainfall anomaly,
representing the 5-year moving average of anomalies.
regionally averaged, showed a continuous increasing trend of
annual rainfall (Figure 7).

4.5. Projected Seasonal Variation. This section explains the

plotted in Figure 4 for all provinces. None of the SRES is ensemble average seasonal temperature and rainfall variation
considered to have an outcome more likely than another but for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the observed base
it is obvious that all demonstrate the continuation of the period (1980s) (Tables 5 and 6). Daily maximum temperature
trends demonstrated by the historical data, which indicates in winter is projected to decrease during 2020s with respect to
increasing rates of temperature change for North Thailand. the base period. The daily maximum temperature projections
There are some exceptions like when HadCM3 GCM predicts of A2 and B2 scenarios of PRECIS RCM increase at higher
a flat trend of maximum temperature, which is below the rates in winter than that of the HadCM3 GCM and for the
observed average maximum temperature. Similarly, PRECIS 2080s both scenarios of PRECIS RCM project daily maxi-
RCM did the same for Talk Province. These exceptions are mum temperature increases by 2.33 and 1.40∘ C, respectively.
similar for minimum temperature. The ensemble averaged Similarly, both models project an increasing daily maximum
maximum temperature for the future period (2011–2099) temperature for spring, summer, and autumn seasons except
in Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Lamphun, and Tak is 31.29, 2020s, where only PRECIS RCM showed a decline of daily
33.45, 33.29, and 34.96∘ C, whereas the observed maximum maximum temperature. Daily minimum winter temperature
temperature is 30.89, 31.91, 32.91, and 33.32∘ C, respectively. is going to increase in 2020s followed by 2050s and 2080s
The ensemble averaged minimum temperature in the future compared to the base period 1980s. The maximum increment
period will increase by 0.87, 1.42, 0.93, and 0.49∘ C relative to (4.99∘ C) is found for A2 scenario of PRECIS RCM in
the observed period in Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Lamphun, 2080s. In spring, PRECIS RCM projects an increase in daily
and Tak, respectively. For both models and scenarios consid- minimum temperature in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s regardless
ered herein, the average monthly maximum and minimum of scenarios but HadCM3 GCM projects the opposite. In
temperature for all provinces average increases projected for summer and autumn, this minimum temperature is projected
the 2011–2099 period are 0.99 and 0.93∘ C above the observed to increase in 2050s and 2080s by both scenarios of PRECIS
period (1960–2010) mean of 32.26 and 20.66∘ C, respectively. and HadCM3 models. It is noteworthy that the increasing rate
Erda et al. [54] reported that the temperature increase in of daily minimum temperature is higher during winter and
China by the end of the twenty-first century may be between summer than that of daily maximum temperature, whereas
3 and 4∘ C, simulated by A2 scenario of PRECIS model. In this fact is opposite in case of spring and autumn.
Southeast Asia, mean warming of temperature will be 2.5∘ C Seasonal variations of annual rainfall in the future
in 2080–2099 relative to 1980–1999 [55]. According to IPCC decades with respect to the base period 1980s are tabulated
ensemble-mean predictions, results estimated a net annual in Table 6. In winter, A2 and B2 scenarios of HadCM3 GCM
increase in temperature between 1.32∘ C (lowest emissions project an increase in annual rainfall by 80% in 2080s,
scenario B1) and 2.01∘ C (highest emissions scenario A1F1) whereas PRECIS RCM’s predictions are not consistent with
for the 2040–2069 periods relative to the baseline 1961–1990 this result. However, each scenario and model evaluated
period [56]. It is clear from the above discussion that all project a decrease in annual rainfall ranging from 13.84 to
scenarios indicate higher future temperature for North Thai- 61.10% in spring. However, in summer, the projection is
land than what would result from a continuation of the trend opposite to spring where annual rainfall is increasing in
from the historical record. Multimodel and multiensembles 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s ranging from 19.83 to 46.55%. For
temperature anomaly, regionally averaged, showed that the autumn, the annual rainfall projections for the range of
Journal of Climatology 11
Rainfall (mm)

Rainfall (mm)
3000 1600
2500 1400
1200
2000
1000
1500 800
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s

1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s
Decade Decade
PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2) PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2)
PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2) PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2)
(a) (b)

Rainfall (mm)
Rainfall (mm)

1400 1600
1200 1400
1200
1000 1000
800 800

1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
2070s
2080s
2090s
Decade Decade
PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2) PRECIS (A2) HadCM3 (A2)
PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2) PRECIS (B2) HadCM3 (B2)
(c) (d)

Figure 6: Annual rainfall variation in the future for (a) Chiang Rai, (b) Chiang Mai, (c) Lamphun, and (d) Tak. Black solid thick line up to
2000s indicates the observed data.

Table 5: Average seasonal variation of daily maximum and minimum temperature in the future relative to 1980s of observed period.

Winter 𝑇max (𝑇min ) (∘ C) Spring 𝑇max (𝑇min ) (∘ C)

Decade PRECIS HadCM3 PRECIS HadCM3
A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2
2020s −0.18 (1.71) −0.23 (1.41) −0.40 (1.97) −0.33 (1.86) 2.67 (1.03) 2.98 (1.18) 0.39 (−1.41) 0.33 (−1.46)
2050s 0.37 (2.52) 0.09 (2.10) −0.01 (2.61) −0.15 (2.43) 3.93 (2.38) 3.36 (2.06) 0.76 (−0.76) 0.57 (−0.94)
2080s 2.33 (4.99) 1.40 (3.42) 0.86 (4.02) 0.30 (3.15) 4.62 (4.07) 4.52 (3.24) 1.02 (0.13) 0.85 (−0.38)
Summer 𝑇max (𝑇min ) (∘ C) Autumn 𝑇max (𝑇min ) (∘ C)
PRECIS HadCM3 PRECIS HadCM3
A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2
2020s 0.88 (−0.38) 0.55 (−0.07) 0.74 (0.32) 0.64 (0.40) −0.55 (−0.69) −0.30 (−0.67) 0.46 (−0.04) 0.65 (0.02)
2050s 1.99 (1.09) 1.20 (0.70) 1.40 (1.01) 0.94 (0.79) 0.94 (0.81) 0.52 (0.47) 1.13 (0.50) 0.85 (0.39)
2080s 3.56 (2.70) 2.77 (1.69) 2.00 (1.92) 1.47 (1.29) 2.20 (2.79) 1.62 (1.62) 1.89 (1.26) 1.27 (0.75)

Table 6: Average seasonal variation of annual rainfall in the future relative to 1980s of observed period.

Winter rainfall (%) Spring rainfall (%)

Decade PRECIS HadCM3 PRECIS HadCM3
A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2
2020s 25.97 −6.45 40.83 32.29 −44.35 −54.20 −15.20 −21.64
2050s −42.03 6.34 52.45 53.08 −61.10 −39.75 −21.51 −15.68
2080s −29.89 3.44 70.89 79.38 −32.08 −64.30 −16.01 −13.84
Summer rainfall (%) Autumn rainfall (%)
PRECIS HadCM3 PRECIS HadCM3
A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2
2020s 26.00 37.31 46.16 43.86 28.77 3.09 −11.50 −15.32
2050s 25.48 46.55 32.35 35.33 31.48 14.34 −32.24 −21.16
2080s 34.63 19.83 26.57 42.70 52.74 18.76 −28.12 −36.76
12 Journal of Climatology

40 Table 7: Trend of temperature indices for 2011–2099 period in

30 Chiang Rai.
Rainfall anomaly (%)

20 PRECIS PRECIS HadCM3 HadCM3

Annual
10
(A2) (B2) (A2) (B2)
temperature series
MK test (Sen’s slope)
0
7.42∗∗∗ 5.99∗∗∗ 6.79∗∗∗ 5.81∗∗∗
−10 SU35
(0.600) (0.416) (0.263) (0.188)
−20 9.97∗∗∗ 7.63∗∗∗ 11.03∗∗∗ 9.07∗∗∗
TR25
−30 (1.055) (0.589) (0.813) (0.400)
10.11∗∗∗ 9.07∗∗∗ 5.01∗∗∗ 5.84∗∗∗
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
TXx
(0.052) (0.035) (0.010) (0.011)
Year
11.40∗∗∗ 10.08∗∗∗ 9.76∗∗∗ 6.42∗∗∗
TNx
Figure 7: Multimodel and multiensembles rainfall anomaly with (0.057) (0.037) (0.031) (0.016)
respect to the control period 1970 to 2000. Results for the case of 6.57∗∗∗∗ 4.53∗∗∗ 6.25∗∗∗ 2.39∗
observed period (observed data) are shown in black and those for TXn
(0.032) (0.021) (0.011) (0.004)
the case of future period (simulated data) in blue. The black solid is
10.27∗∗∗ 7.89∗∗∗ 8.69∗∗∗ 4.68∗∗∗
representing the 5-year moving average of anomalies. TNn
(0.050) (0.029) (0.028) (0.012)
−7.56∗∗∗ −5.84∗∗∗ −9.15∗∗∗ −5.57∗∗∗
TN10p
(−0.054) (−0.053) (−0.073) (−0.043)
SRES suggest big differences, because PRECIS RCM projects
an increase in rainfall whereas HadCM3 GCM projects the −6.52∗∗∗ −5.63∗∗∗ −5.69∗∗∗ −2.97∗∗
TX10p
opposite. Although both temperature and rainfall are rising (−0.068) (−0.063) (−0.037) (−0.019)
in the future, there is no significant correlation found for 11.12∗∗∗ 9.81∗∗∗ 11.34∗∗∗ 9.15∗∗
TN90p
temperature and rainfall in this region [57]. (0.738) (0.560) (0.428) (0.211)
9.69∗∗∗ 7.91∗∗∗ 8.39∗∗∗ 7.10∗∗
TX90p
4.6. Trend Analysis for the Future Period. Figure 8 illustrates (0.534) (0.373) (0.117) (0.066)
the two IPCC SRES for Chiang Rai Province as predicted −6.11∗∗∗ −2.32∗ −9.32∗∗∗ −3.68∗∗∗
DTR
by PRECIS RCM and HadCM3 GCM to see the trend of (−0.011) (−0.003) (−0.018) (−0.006)
different warm and cold temperature extremes, developed by 9.68∗∗∗ 7.71∗∗∗ 4.71∗∗∗ 3.12∗
RClimDex, for the period of 2011–2099. Mann-Kendall test WSDI
(1.750) (0.416) (—) (—)
statistics 𝑍 with Sen’s slope are provided in Table 7 for the −3.11∗∗ −4.39∗∗∗ −0.22 0.00
same province. CSDI
(—) (—) (—) (—)
Almost all the temperature rising extreme indices +
Moderately significant, ∗ significant, ∗∗
highly significant, ∗∗∗
very highly
(TX90p, TN90p, TXx, TNx, SU35, TR25, and WSDI) are significant, and ( ) = Sen’s slope.
increasing (Table 7 and Figure 8) with highly (very highly)
significant trend, and the temperature falling indices (TX10p,
TN10p, TXn, TNn, and CSDI) are decreasing with same and their temporal trends are illustrated in Figure 9. The
trend for both SRES A2 and B2. Also, the values of Mann- consecutive dry days (CDD) are indicating less rainfall in the
Kendall test statistic 𝑍 and Sen’s slope indicate that minimum study area. This extreme index is projected to decrease by
temperature extremes (TNx and TNn) have stronger trend an ensemble average of 1.38 days/year. The trend of annual
and steeper slope than maximum temperature extremes total rainfall (PRCPTOT) reveals a very high significant
(TXx and TXn) and that the cold extremes (TX10p and increasing trend except B2 scenario of PRECIS RCM. This
TN10p) have weaker trend and milder slope than warm indicates that the study area will receive more rainfall in
extremes (TX90p and TN90p). On an average, maximum the future. Number of days with rainfall ≥10 mm (R10) and
and minimum temperature will increase by 1.56 and 2.24∘ C, ≥20 mm (R20) are indicators of moderate and heavy rainfall.
respectively, in 2090s as compared to 2020s (Figure 8). In Both of these indices are projected to increase significantly.
contrast to summer days (SU35) and tropical nights (TR25), However, R20 will increase with higher trend than that of
tropical nights will increase far beyond summer nights with R10. Two important measures of extreme rainfall are the
the same level of significance. Hence, minimum temper- percentage of total rainfall due to events above the 95th and
ature will increase more than the maximum temperature 99th percentiles (R95p and R99p). Results revealed that both
which is supported by the very high significant negative indices increase with the significant trend. The sign of the
trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR); that is, day- trend for the annual total rainfall is compared with the sign
night temperature variation will be smaller in future. Daily of the trends in the R99p index. At a station where the
minimum temperatures are projected to increase faster than annual amount decreases, negative R99p trends are indicative
daily maximum temperatures, leading to a decrease in diurnal of a large contribution of the extremes and vice versa [50].
temperature range in the world [55]. The maximum event intensity indices (RX1day and RX5day)
The summary of the statistical analysis of rainfall extreme show a significant increasing trend, whereas all scenarios of
indices with their level of significance is tabulated in Table 8 both models show a very high significant trend for RX5day
Journal of Climatology 13

PRECIS RCM HadCM3 GCM

200
100
Number of days

Number of days
150 80
100 60
40
50
20
0 0

2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099
2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099
Year Year
SU35 (A2) TR25 (A2) SU35 (A2) TR25 (A2)
SU35 (B2) TR25 (B2) SU35 (B2) TR25 (B2)
PRECIS RCM HadCM3 GCM
44 40

Temperature ( C)
Temperature (∘ C)

39 37

∘
34
34
31
29
28
24 25
19 22
2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099

2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099
Year Year
TXx (A2) TXn (A2) TXx (A2) TXn (A2)
TXx (B2) TXn (B2) TXx (B2) TXn (B2)
PRECIS RCM HadCM3 GCM
28 28
Temperature ( C)
Temperature (∘ C)

25
∘

23 22
19
18 16
13
13 10
2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099

2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099
Year Year
TNx (A2) TNn (A2) TNx (A2) TNn (A2)
TNx (B2) TNn (B2) TNx (B2) TNn (B2)

PRECIS RCM HadCM3 GCM

21 16
Number of days
Number of days

17
11
13
9 6
5
1 1
2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099

2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099

Year Year
TN10p (A2) TX10p (A2) TN10p (A2) TX10p (A2)
TN10p (B2) TX10p (B2) TN10p (B2) TX10p (B2)

PRECIS RCM HadCM3 GCM

101 65
Number of days

Number of days

81
61 45
41
25
21
1 5
2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099

2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099

Year Year
TN90p (A2) TX90p (A2) TN90p (A2) TX90p (A2)
TN90p (B2) TX90p (B2) TN90p (B2) TX90p (B2)

Figure 8: Continued.
14 Journal of Climatology

PRECIS RCM HadCM3 GCM

13 14

Temperature (∘ C)
Temperature (∘ C)
13
12
12
11
11
10 10

2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099
2011
2019
2027
2035
2043
2051
2059
2067
2075
2083
2091
2099
Year Year
DTR (A2) DTR (A2)
DTR (B2) DTR (B2)

Figure 8: Annual series of temperature extremes for Chiang Rai province as predicted by PRECIS RCM and HadCM3 GCM.

Table 8: Trend of rainfall indices for 2011–2099 period in Chiang 5. Conclusions

Rai.
Our analysis enables a number of conclusions to be drawn as
PRECIS PRECIS HadCM3 HadCM3 follows:
Annual rainfall
(A2) (B2) (A2) (B2)
series (1) During observed 1960–2010 period, the entire tem-
MK test (Sen’s slope)
perature extremes showed a warming trend which is
−0.03 0.01 −5.10∗∗∗ −4.39∗∗∗ also supported by the statistical analyses. A warming
CDD
(0.000) (0.000) (−0.378) (−0.340) trend is indicated by the summer days, tropical nights,
−2.21∗ −0.67 3.60∗∗∗ 0.28 Max 𝑇max , Min 𝑇max , Max 𝑇min , Min 𝑇min , cool nights,
CWD
(−0.153) (−0.055) (0.056) (0.000) cool days, warm nights, warm days, diurnal temper-
3.54∗∗∗ 0.89 8.43∗∗∗ 5.89∗∗∗ ature range, warm spell duration indicator, and cold
PRCPTOT
(3.834) (0.958) (10.278) (5.801) spell duration indicator. The warming trend is higher
1.95+ 0.17 8.11∗∗∗ 5.82∗∗∗ in the southern part of the study area, that is, in Tak.
R10
(0.073) (0.000) (0.360) (0.190) Trend and slope of night extremes (TNx, TNn, TN10,
5.99∗∗∗ 3.50∗∗∗ 7.17∗∗∗ 5.21∗∗∗ and TN90) appear to have been higher than those in
R20
(0.163) (0.091) (0.255) (0.167) day extremes (TXx, TXn, TX90, and TX10) resulting
1.28 0.00 0.00 in the decrease of day-night temperature variation
R100 — which is also indicated by diurnal temperature range
(—) (—) (—)
3.76∗∗∗ 1.64 4.49∗∗∗ 2.91∗∗ (DTR).
R95P
(3.366) (1.396) (2.361) (1.444) (2) Considering all seasons (winter, spring, summer, and
1.39 0.31 3.15∗∗∗ 1.31 autumn), maximum temperature (𝑇max ) and mini-
R99P mum temperature (𝑇min ) have increased significantly
(—) (0.000) (—) (—)
1.68+ 0.22 2.17∗ 0.86 in all seasons except spring which is insignificant over
RX1day the whole study area. Statistical analyses indicated
(0.155) (0.031) (0.058) (0.024)
5.04∗∗∗ 0.61 4.79∗∗∗ 3.59∗∗∗ that the increasing trend of 𝑇min was higher than that
RX5day
(0.315) (0.128) (0.388) (—) of 𝑇max .
1.82 1.61 3.13∗∗ 1.85 (3) In future, the maximum temperature beyond 35∘ C
SDII (summer days) and minimum temperature beyond
(0.027) (0.009) (0.017) (0.311)
+
Moderately significant, ∗
significant, ∗∗
highly significant, and ∗∗∗
very 25∘ C (tropical nights) will increase with the very
highly significant. high significant trend. For all SRES (A2 and B2) of
both models considered in this study, the maximum
and minimum temperature increases projected for
compared to that of RX1day. The simple daily intensity index the period of 2011–2099 were 0.99 and 0.93∘ C above
(SDII) is the combined effect of the trend of PRCPTOT and the observed period. However, monthly maximum
consecutive wet days (CWD). All scenarios of both models and minimum temperature will boost up by 1.56 and
predict an increase of SDII with nonsignificant trend except 2.24∘ C at the end of this century as compared to
A2 scenario of HadCM3 GCM. Table 9 provides the summary the 2020s. In future, all the day, night, cool, and
of the statistical analyses of rainfall and temperature indices warm extremes will change same as observed period.
with their significance for Chiang Mai, Lamphun, and Tak Diurnal temperature range will go down (0.64∘ C)
provinces. With some exception especially for rainfall, the notably over the study area.
future projections for all temperature and rainfall indices are (4) During the observed period, annual total rainfall
similar to the projection for Chiang Rai Province. (PRCPTOT) and moderate rainfall (R10) indices were
 Rainfall (mm) Number of days Annual rainfall (mm) Number of days
(mm/days)

5
55
105

0
300
600
900
1200
1300
1800
2300
2800
0
50
100
150
200

10
12
14
16
18
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011
Journal of Climatology

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019

2027 2027 2027 2027 2027

R10 (B2)
R10 (A2)

SDII (B2)
2035 2035 2035 2035 2035

SDII (A2)
CDD (B2)

R95P (B2)
CDD (A2)

R95P (A2)
2043 2043 2043 2043 2043

PRCPTOT (B2)
PRCPTOT (A2)
2051 2051 2051 2051 2051
2059 2059 2059 2059 2059

PRECIS RCM
PRECIS RCM
PRECIS RCM
PRECIS RCM
PRECIS RCM

2067 2067 2067 2067 2067

2075 2075 2075 2075 2075

R20 (B2)
R20 (A2)
CWD (B2)
CWD (A2)

2083 2083 2083 2083 2083

2091 2091 2091 2091 2091
2099 2099 2099 2099 2099
(mm/days) Rainfall (mm) Number of days Annual rainfall (mm) Number of days

15
17
19
21
23
25
70
115
0
50
100
150

0
200
400
600
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200

2011 2011 2011

2011 2011
2019 2019 2019
2019 2019
2027 2027 2027
2027 2027

SDII (B2)
SDII (A2)
R10 (B2)
2035

R10 (A2)
2035 2035 2035
CDD (B2)

R95P (B2)
CDD (A2)

R95P (A2)
2035
2043 2043 2043
2043 2043
PRCPTOT (B2)
PRCPTOT (A2)

2051 2051 2051

2051 2051
2059 2059 2059
2059 2059

HadCM3 GCM
HadCM3 GCM
HadCM3 GCM
HadCM3 GCM
HadCM3 GCM

2067 2067 2067

2067 2067
2075 2075 2075
2075 R20 (B2) 2075
R20 (A2)
CWD (B2)
CWD (A2)

2083 2083 2083

2083 2083
2091 2091 2091
2091 2091
2099 2099
2099 2099 2099

Figure 9: Annual series of rainfall extremes for Chiang Rai province as predicted by PRECIS RCM and HadCM3 GCM.
15
16 Journal of Climatology

Table 9: Trend of temperature and rainfall indices for 2011–2099 period.

Chiang Mai Lamphun Tak

Annual series PRECIS HadCM3 PRECIS HadCM3 PRECIS HadCM3
A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2
Temperature indices
SU35 ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ − − ++ ++ ++ ++
TR25 ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
TXx ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ − ++ ++ ++ ++
TNx ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ + ++ ++ ++ ++
TXn ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ + ++ ++ ++ ++
TNn ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ + ++ ++ ++ ++
TN10p −− −− −− −− −− −− − − −− −− − −
TX10p −− −− −− −− −− −− − − −− −− −− −−
TN90p ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
TX90p ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
DTR −− − −− − −− −− −− −− −− −− − −
Rainfall indices
CDD + + ++ − + − + + + − ++ ++
CWD − + − −− − − − − − − + +
PRCPTOT + + − − + − − − + + + +
R10 − − −− − + + −− − + + −− −−
R20 ++ ++ + + ++ ++ − − ++ ++ − −
R95P ++ ++ ++ + ++ ++ − − ++ + + −
SDII + ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ − − + ++ ++ ++
+ positive trend, − negative trend, and statistical significant trend (++, − −) signs.

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