Sector Update

Automobiles
Bucked the trend

Summary
Sector: Automobile
Š Despite the transitionary phase and working day limitations, OEMs performed well in February.
View: Positive Š HMCL, TML, Escorts and MSIL outperformed in their respective segments.
Š Exports are still under pressure but reaching to bottom, in contrary BAL’s export grew on m-o-m.
Š Preferred Picks –
Coverage universe
OEMs: Ashok Leyland, M&M, Maruti, TVS Motors and Tata Motors.
CMP
Company Reco PT (Rs) Auto Ancillaries: Amar Raja Batteries, Bosch, Greaves Cotton, Lumax Auto Technologies,
(Rs)
Schaeffler India and Gabriel India.
Alicon Castalloy
820 Buy 1,159
Limited #
Given, February used to be a traditionally lean month due to less number of working days and the
Amara Raja Batteries 568 Buy 696 Auto sector has been passing through the transitionary phase due to the implementation of BSVI
phase 2 norms from April 2023, OEMs delivered a healthy set of numbers in FY23. Accept Bajaj
Apollo Tyres 316 Buy 372 Auto, Royal Enfield (Eicher) and Tata Motor’s PV segment all other players have reported volumes
above estimates. Wholesale volumes for February 2023 are not strictly comparable with January
Ashok Leyland 144 Buy 181 numbers but Ashok Leyland, Hero Motocorp and Escorts reported strong growth on an m-o-m basis.
Two-wheeler retail demand has yet to improve but dealers are indicating that retail sales picked in
Bajaj Auto 3,722 Buy 4,151 some regions due to ongoing marriage season.

Balkrishna Industries 2,047 Hold 2,163 Š Two-wheeler segment performed well against expectations: Though the expectations were
muted, two-wheeler players have also performed well in February as HMCL and TVSM reported
Bosch 18,301 Buy 19,795 volumes above estimates. HMCL outperformed the 2 &3 wheeler pack and reported a healthy
jump in volumes on a y-o-y as well as an m-o-m basis. While export volumes fell sharply on y-o-y
Eicher Motors 3,138 Buy 3,579 basis due to ongoing external headwinds in overseas market specially in African regions, the pace
of fall is declining on a m-o-m basis. TVSM has reported a mere 6.3% fall in export volumes on
Escorts Kubota 2,082 Positive 2,278 m-o-m and on the contrary Bajaj Auto has reported 12.6% increase in export volumes on m-o-m.
Š PV segment: on track: The demand in the PV segment is steady as OEMs are enjoying healthy
Exide Industries $ 179 Buy 215 order books and new products are receiving a healthy response in the market. Despite supply
chain issues PV segment continue to maintain its traction in February. Out of the three leading
Gabriel India 156 Buy 217 listed players MSIL outperformed in February as it reported a marginal decline (flat) on mom basis
compared to M&M and TML.
GNA Axles 911 Buy 930
Š Rising EV sales: Legacy players are continuing to improve their performance in the EV space as
Greaves Cotton 128 Buy 183 TVS Motor and Tata Motors reported a healthy set of numbers in the EV segment. In February
TVSM sold 15,522 EVs (+27.6% m-o-m) and this was the consecutively fourth month when TVSM has
Hero Motocorp 2,432 Buy 3,006 sold more than 10,000 units in a month. Similarly, Tata Motors reported a 28.7% m-o-m increase in
EV sales to 5,318 units. During the month, Tata Motors entered into an arrangement with Uber to
Lumax Auto supply 25,000 Xpress-T electric sedans. Uber is expected to utilize Xpress-T in premium category
258 Buy 288
Technologies# services in key metros.
M&M @ $ 1,273 Buy 1,550 Š CV segment: Partially supported by pre buying: CV segment performed well in February as all
three leading players (VECV, TML and ALL) registered improvement in volumes on an m-o-m basis.
Mahindra CIE We believe that the retail sales also matched the wholesale volume trend due to prebuying ahead
426 Positive 457
Automotive
of the implementation of BSVI phase 2 norms from April 2023.
Maruti Suzuki 8,763 Buy 10,965 Š Eye on implementation of BSVI phase 2 norms: The dealer inventory management is likely
to continue in March 2023 also. Though prices would increase ahead of the implementation of
Ramkrishna Forgings 267 Buy 329 BSVI phase 2 norms from April 2023, we believe that OEMs would judiciously increase the prices
without distorting the demand trend. The retails is expected to improve after Holi as Holashtak
Schaeffler India 3,089 Buy 3,328 (few days before Holi) is assumed to be inauspicious for any new purchases in some pockets.
CV segment has been witnessing healthy retail uptick due to seasonality and preponement of
Sundram Fasteners # 988 Buy 1,110 purchases ahead of the rise in prices.
Suprajit Engineering # 358 Buy 403 Sector view
While Q4FY23 is assumed to be transitionary when OEMs would focus more on dealer inventory
Tata Motors # 426 Buy 516 management and a smooth transition towards BSVI phase-2 norms, the auto sector is continuing to
remain in a cyclical uptick phase in the medium term. Given current performance is largely driven by
TVS Motors $ 1,062 Buy 1,303 the improvement in urban demand, the structural uptick would be a more visible in recovery in rural
VST Tillers and demand. A focused and balanced approach towards EV projects is helping legacy players in building
2,233 Neutral 2,445 up a markable presence in the EV segment as most of the listed OEMs are preparing vigorous plans
Tractors Limited
for the EV segment which can survive even on withdrawal of the subsidy support. Export volumes are
@ MM & MVML; # Consolidated;
expected to remain steady in the near term and are likely to improve from mid of Q1FY24.
$ core business valuation; UR Under Review
Source: Company data, Sharekhan estimates Preferred picks: Among OEMs, we largely prefer four-wheelers over two-wheelers as the latter is still
in the improvement stage. Ashok Leyland is expected to be a beneficiary of an ongoing upsurge in
the CV segment. While historically M&M’s growth was largely driven by the tractor segment, however
now the automotive segment is also contributing a significant portion to the operating performance.
Price chart Maruti is expected to regain its market share with the successful launch of its new products. Despite
180.0 weakness in export volumes, we believe increasing traction in its EV business augurs well for TVS
Motors. Tata Motors is assumed to register improvement in all three key segments (domestic PVs,
160.0
CVs and JLRs) on an improvement in semiconductor chip supplies. we like Bosch due to its technology
140.0 leadership and a rise in content per vehicle on implementation of new emission norms. Amara Raja is
expected to be a key beneficiary of improvement in replacement demand in the battery segment and
120.0
probable value unlocking in EV-related projects. The performance of Greaves Cotton is expected to
100.0 improve on the revival of its EV business. Lumax Auto Technologies is expected to benefit from new
acquisitions and a likely increase in its revenue mix. Schaeffler India is improving its export revenue
Jun-21

Nov-21

Apr-22
Jan-21

Sep-22

Feb-23

mix and increasing localization to improve overall profitability. We like Gabriel India due to its focus
on EV projects and inorganic growth opportunities.
Nifty 50 Nifty Auto
Source: NSE India, Sharekhan Research Key risks
Our forecasts can be impacted if semiconductor chips shortage (in the premium segment) and
geopolitical situation aggravates or get delayed by a deterioration in macros.

March 01, 2023 1

 Sector Update
Valuation
EPS P/E (x)
Company CMP Reco PT (Rs)
FY22 FY23E FY24E FY22 FY23E FY24E
Alicon Castalloy Limited # 820 Buy 1,159 15.0 34.6 59.7 54.6 23.7 13.7
Amara Raja Batteries 568 Buy 696 29.9 36.8 44.9 19.0 15.4 12.6
Apollo Tyres 316 Buy 372 10.1 15.4 23.8 31.1 20.5 13.3
Ashok Leyland 144 Buy 181 1.8 3.3 6.6 78.0 43.7 21.9
Bajaj Auto 3722 Buy 4,151 162.6 197.2 225.8 22.9 18.9 16.5
Balkrishna Industries 2047 Hold 2,163 73 61 76 28.0 33.4 26.9
Bosch 18301 Buy 19,795 413 491 644 44.3 37.3 28.4
Eicher Motors 3138 Buy 3,579 61 103 122 51.1 30.5 25.8
Escorts Kubota 2082 Positive 2,278 73.0 58.7 75.4 27.8 34.6 27.6
Exide Industries $ 179 Buy 215 9 11 12 16.1 16.0 14.4
Gabriel India 156.2 Buy 217 6 9 13 25.1 17.1 12.3
GNA Axles 911 Buy 930 41 59 71 22.0 15.3 12.8
Greaves Cotton 128 Buy 183 -2 3 6 NA 38.4 20.6
Hero Motocorp 2432 Buy 3,006 124 135 172 19.6 18.0 14.2
Lumax Auto Technologies# 258 Buy 288 12 15 18 21.9 17.6 14.6
M&M @ $ 1273 Buy 1,550 43 62 71 24.4 17.0 17.9
Mahindra CIE Automotive 426 Positive 457 10.4 18 22 36.3 21.0 19.8
Maruti Suzuki 8763 Buy 10,965 256 346 392 34.3 25.3 22.4
Ramkrishna Forgings 267 Buy 329 15 21 27 17.8 12.9 9.7
Schaeffler India 3089 Buy 3,328 40 56 66 76.7 54.9 47.1
Sundram Fasteners # 988 Buy 1,110 24 33 42 41.0 29.9 23.6
Suprajit Engineering # 358 Buy 403 11 14 20 31.5 24.8 17.7
Tata Motors # 426 Buy 516 -28.0 4.6 32.8 NA 92.6 13.0
TVS Motors $ 1062 Buy 1,303 32 42 47 32.1 24.3 22.8
VST Tillers and Tractors Limited 2233 Neutral 2,445 96 124 153 22.8 17.6 14.6
@ MM & MVML; # Consolidated; $ core business valuation; UR Under Review
Source: Company data, Sharekhan estimates

March 01, 2023 2

 Sector Update
Sector-wise trend

Two-wheelers
While the expectations were muted for the 2&3 wheeler segment the OEMs have fairly performed in February. HMCL
outperformed amongst peers as it reported healthy growth in volumes on a y-o-y as well as an m-o-m basis. The export
is still muted but gradually reaching their bottom.
Š Hero MotoCorp (HMCL): Reported sales were above estimates. Total sales were 10.1% up y-o-y and 10.6% up m-o-m.
On an m-o-m basis, domestic sales and export sales jumped by 9.4% and 67.4% respectively.
Š Bajaj Auto (BAL): Total sales were slightly below estimates, while export volumes improved on an m-o-m basis. The
management has indicated that the export performance would remain steady and gradual improvement would be
visible from Q1FY24 onwards. Total sales declined by 11.3% y-o-y as domestic sales and export were down by 11.2%
yoy and 39.9% yoy respectively. The improvement in export volumes on a m-o-m basis stems the fall in overall
performance. On m-o-m basis, domestic sales declined by 11.2% but export sales increased by 12.6% and hence total
sales declined by a mere 2.0%.
Š TVS Motor (TVSM): Total sales were above estimates. Though this was the consecutive 8th month when TVSM
reported a sequential decline in export volumes, it appears that export volumes are reaching near their bottom as
the rate of fall appears to be arrested. Domestic sales were up by 27.9% y-o-y and 2.1% m-o-m, while export sales
declined by 50.4% y-o-y and 6.3% m-o-m. TVSM sold 15,522 EVs in February compared to 12,169 units in January.
This was the consecutive fourth month when TVSM sold more than 10,000 EVs in a month.
Š Royal Enfield (Eicher Motors): Reported sales were below estimates. Total sales were 20.9% up y-o-y but fell by
4.3% m-o-m. Domestic sales declined by 4.8% y-o-y and exports were flat on m-o-m.

Passenger vehicles (PVs)

Despite supply chain issues, the PV segment continues to maintain its traction. Out of the three leading listed players
MSIL outperformed in February as it reported a marginal decline (flat) on m-o-m basis compared to M&M and TML.
Š Maruti Suzuki (MSIL): Total sales were above estimates. Domestic sales increased by 10.8% y-o-y and came flat on
an m-o-m basis, while exports declined by 28.4% y-o-y and 1.1% m-o-m.
Š M&M: PV sales were in line with estimates. The PV segment registered a 9.7% y-o-y increase but an 8.1% m-o-m
decline in volumes. The mom decline in PV sales is attributed to production constraints as the company is facing a
shortage of crash sensors and airbag ECUs, else the company has a strong order book in hand (266,000 units by
the end of Q3FY23)
Š Tata Motors (TML): PV sales were below estimates. TML reported a 7.4% y-o-y increase but a 10.7% m-o-m decline in
PV volumes. We believe that the m-o-m decline in wholesales is due to inventory management as it has introduced
BSVI phase 2 compliant vehicles ahead of schedule. Electric car sales increased by 28.7% m-o-m and surpassed the
5000 mark in a month, given TML sold 5,318 EVs in February 2023.

CV segment
The CV segment performed well in February as all three leading players (VECV, TML and ALL) registered improvement
in volumes on an m-o-m basis. We believe that the retail sales also matched the wholesale volume trend due to
prebuying ahead of the implementation of BSVI phase 2 norms from April 2023.
Š Tata Motors (TML): Total CV sales were above estimates. TML’s CV segment registered 2.6% y-o-y decline but an
11.5% m-o-m increase in volumes. The company had already increased prices by up to 2% in January 2023 in CV
segment.
Š Ashok Leyland (ALL): Total sales were above estimates. ALL reported a 26.7% yoy and 8.0% m-o-m increase in
volumes. While ALL maintained traction in MHCV segment but its LCV segment registered a decline on an m-o-m
basis. ALL registered a 14.6% m-o-m increase in MHCV sales and 4.0% m-o-m decline in LCV sales.
Š VECV (Eicher Motors): Total sales was marginally above estimates. VECV reported a 24.5% y-o-y and 1.5% m-o-m
increase in sales.
Š M&M: CV & 3w sales was above estimates. CV & 3W portfolio registered a 9.2% y-o-y increase but a 7.4% m-o-m
decline in volumes.

Tractors
Tractor segments continue to report a decent set of numbers though growth rates would likely to moderate from here
due to the high base.
Š M&M: Total sales were above estimates. M&M’s tractor division reported a 26.2% y-o-y increase and a 10.8% m-o-m
decline in volumes.
Š Escorts: Total sales were above estimates as tractor volumes were up by 27.8% y-o-y and 17.5% m-o-m.

March 01, 2023 3

 Sector Update
Company-wise performance in Feb 2023
^Residual
Maruti Suzuki Feb-23 Feb-22 YoY(%) Jan-23 MoM(%) YTD FY23 YTD FY22 YoY(%) YoY(%) FY23E YoY(%)
1M FY23
Dom PV 1,55,094 1,40,035 10.8 1,55,142 -0.0 15,66,859 12,70,378 23.3 1,54,671 7.5 17,21,530 21.7

Exp PV 17,207 24,021 -28.4 17,393 -1.1 2,29,214 2,11,880 8.2 20786 -21.6 2,50,000 4.9

Total Sales 1,72,301 1,64,056 5.0 1,72,535 -0.1 17,96,073 14,82,258 21.2 175457 3.0 19,71,530 19.3
^Residual
M&M Feb-23 Feb-22 YoY(%) Jan-23 MoM(%) YTD FY23 YTD FY22 YoY(%) YoY(%) FY23E YoY(%)
1M FY23
PVs 30,358 27,663 9.7 33,040 -8.1 3,23,256 1,98,292 63.0 30691 132 3,53,947 56.7

CVs & 3W 26,193 23,978 9.2 28,286 -7.4 2,79,127 1,83,316 52.3 28995 45 3,08,122 48.7

Total Dom 56,551 51,641 9.5 61,326 -7.8 6,02,383 3,81,608 57.9 59686 178 6,62,069 52.9

Exp 2,250 2,814 -20.0 3,009 -25.2 29,992 29,350 2.2 5444 72.3 35,436 9.0

Total Auto 58,801 54,455 8.0 64,335 -8.6 6,32,375 4,10,958 53.9 65130 19.2 6,97,505 49.8

Tractor 25,791 20,437 26.2 28,926 -10.8 3,72,531 3,24,935 14.6 17637 -40.7 3,90,168 10.0

Total Sales 84,592 74,892 13.0 93,261 -9.3 10,04,906 7,32,510 37.2 82766 -5.7 10,87,672 32.6
^Residual
Tata Motors Feb-23 Feb-22 YoY(%) Jan-23 MoM(%) YTD FY23 YTD FY22 YoY(%) YoY(%) FY23E YoY(%)
1M FY23
CV 36,565 37,552 -2.6 32,780 11.5 3,66,716 3,09,793 18.4 36662 -22.3 4,03,378 13.0

PV 43,140 40,181 7.4 48,289 -10.7 4,96,938 3,28,097 51.5 42714 -3.1 5,39,652 45.0

Total Sales 79,705 77,733 2.5 81,069 -1.7 8,63,654 6,37,890 35.4 79377 -13.0 9,43,031 29.3
^Residual
Escorts Kubota Feb-23 Feb-22 YoY(%) Jan-23 MoM(%) YTD FY23 YTD FY22 YoY(%) YoY(%) FY23E YoY(%)
1M FY23
Total Sales 7,811 6,114 27.8 6,649 17.5 92,985 84,154 10.5 8097 -19.6 1,01,082 7.3
^Residual
Ashok Leyland Feb-23 Feb-22 YoY(%) Jan-23 MoM(%) YTD FY23 YTD FY22 YoY(%) YoY(%) FY23E YoY(%)
1M FY23
MHCV 12,668 9,363 35.3 11,050 14.6 1,07,336 59,895 79.2 12809 -11.0 1,20,145 61.7

LCV 5,903 5,294 11.5 6,150 -4.0 60,943 48,308 26.2 6606 15.3 67,549 25.0

Total Sales 18,571 14,657 26.7 17,200 8.0 1,68,279 1,08,203 55.5 19415 -3.5 1,87,694 46.3
^Residual
Eicher Motors Feb-23 Feb-22 YoY(%) Jan-23 MoM(%) YTD FY23 YTD FY22 YoY(%) YoY(%) FY23E YoY(%)
1M FY23
CV 7,289 5,856 24.5 7,181 1.5 67,717 61,680 9.8 7854 -234.1 75,571 35.4

2W Royal Enfield 71,544 59,160 20.9 74,746 -4.3 7,62,660 5,34,591 21 77515 14.5 8,40,175 39.5
^Residual
Hero Motocorp Feb-23 Feb-22 YoY(%) Jan-23 MoM(%) YTD FY23 YTD FY22 YoY(%) YoY(%) FY23E YoY(%)
1M FY23
Total Sales 3,94,460 3,58,254 10.1 3,56,690 10.6 48,09,204 44,93,996 7.0 4,31,595 -4.1 52,40,799 6.0
^Residual
Bajaj Auto Feb-23 Feb-22 YoY(%) Jan-23 MoM(%) YTD FY23 YTD FY22 YoY(%) YoY(%) FY23E YoY(%)
1M FY23
Dom 2W 1,20,335 96,523 24.7 1,40,428 -14.3 16,51,461 15,34,003 7.7 123731 15.5 17,75,192 8.2

Exp 2W 1,15,021 1,82,814 -37.1 1,00,679 14.2 15,42,241 20,46,529 -24.6 120461 -19.3 16,62,702 -24.3

Total CV 44,870 36,683 22.3 44,888 -0.0 4,40,453 4,30,713 2.3 39987 -2.1 4,80,440 1.9

Total Sales 2,80,226 3,16,020 -11.3 2,85,995 -2.0 36,34,155 40,11,345 -9.4 284180 -4.3 39,18,335 -9.1
^Residual
TVS Motors Feb-23 Feb-22 YoY(%) Jan-23 MoM(%) YTD FY23 YTD FY22 YoY(%) YoY(%) FY23E YoY(%)
1M FY23
2W 2,67,026 2,67,625 -0.2 2,64,710 0.9 32,05,395 28,44,785 12.7 266078 -9.2 34,71,473 10.6

3W 9,124 14,089 -35.2 10,405 -12.3 1,62,016 1,56,839 3.3 9609 -36.1 1,71,625 -0.1

Total Sales 2,76,150 2,81,714 -2.0 2,75,115 0.4 33,67,411 30,01,624 12.2 275687 -10.5 36,43,098 10.1
^ Monthly runrate
Source: Company data, Sharekhan estimates

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

March 01, 2023 4

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