BBS Project
BBS Project
BBS Project
On
ANALYSIS OF PROBABILITY AND PRESENT SITUATION
OF HYDROELECTRICITY IN NEPAL
A Project Work Report
Submitted By:
Umesh Shrestha
TU Regd. No.:
4th Year Roll No.:
Group: Account
Shanker Dev Campus
Putalisadak, Kathmandu
Submitted To:
Office of Controller of Examination
Faculty of Management
Tribhuvan University
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of
BACHELOR OF BUSINESS STUDIES (BBS)
Kathmandu, Nepal
January, 2021
i
DECLARATION
I hereby declare that the project work entitled "ANALYSIS OF PROBABILITY AND
PRESENT SITUATION OF HYDROELECTRICITY IN NEPAL " submitted to the Faculty
of Management, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu is an original piece of work under the
supervision of Mr. Sailendra Kumar Basnet, faculty member, Shanker Dev Campus
Kathmandu, and is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of
Bachelor of Business Studies (BBS).This project work report has not been submitted to any
other university or institution for the award of any degree or diploma.
Signature:
Name of Student: Umesh Shrestha
ii
SUPERVISOR’S RECOMMENDATION
The project work report entitled " ANALYSIS OF PROBABILITY AND PRESENT
SITUATION OF HYDROELECTRICITY IN NEPAL " submitted by Umesh Shrestha of
Shanker Dev Campus Kathmandu, is prepared under my supervision and guidance as per the
procedure and format requirements laid by the Faculty of Management, Tribhuvan
University, as partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Bachelor of Business
Studies (BBS). I, therefore, recommend the project work report for evaluation.
Signature:
Date:
iii
ENDORSEMENT
We hereby endorse the project work report entitled " ANALYSIS OF PROBABILITY AND
PRESENT SITUATION OF HYDROELECTRICITY IN NEPAL " submitted by Umesh
Shrestha of Shanker Dev Campus Kathmandu, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for
the degree of the Bachelor of Business Studies (BBS) for external evaluation.
Signature: Signature:
Name of Chairman: Name of Principal: Mr.
Chairman, Research Committee Campus Chief/Principal
Date: Date:
iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
It is a great honor to thank the officials of Tribhuvan University for including the
Project work report in the syllabus of BBS fourth year. I think it is a most for the
practical development of the student.
I am extremely grateful to my respected supervisor Mr. Sailendra Kumar Basnet
for his precious guidelines, inspiration and suggestion thoroughly during the period
of this research.
I would like to thank all the teachers and library staff of Shanker Dev Campus, who
provided the reference and reading materials during the period of research.
Similarly, I am indebted to all the staff personnel of Hydroelectricity department of
Government of Nepal. for providing their valuable time and information which
assisted a lot in preparing this report.
Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family, friends and other persons
whoever have helped me in preparing this report directly or indirectly.
Thank You!
Umesh Shrestha
BBS 4th year
v
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No.
Title Page………………………………………………………………………………………….i
Declaration ……………………………………………………………………………………...ii
Supervisor’s Recommendation ……………………………………………………………... iii
Endorsement ………………………………………………………………………………...… iv
Acknowledgements ………………………………………………………………………….…v
Table of Contents……………………………………………………………………….......…vi
List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………….…. vii
List of Figures………………………………………………………………………………...viii
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study………………………………………...….…1
vi
APPENDIX
vii
LIST OF TABLES
viii
LIST OF FIGURES
ix
CHAPTER-I
INTRODUCTION
It is not a new knowledge that flowing water creates energy that can be
captured and turned into electricity called hydropower. Hydro comes from the
Greek word “Hydra” meaning water. It is the electricity produced by the
movement of fresh water from rivers and lakes. Also calls hydro power, it is a
renewable energy source dependent upon the hydro logic cycle of water, which
involves evaporation, precipitation and the flow of water due to gravity. Gravity
causes water to flow down ward and this downward motion of water contains
kinetic energy that can be converted into mechanical energy, and then from
mechanical energy into electrical energy. At a good site hydropower can generate
very cost effective electricity. The history of conversion of kinetic energy into
mechanical energy dates back to two thousands years ago in ancient Greece when
wooden water wheels were used. Hydropower represents an important source of
energy, accounting for one-fifth of the world’s electricity supply. Most of the
technically and economically feasible hydropower potential has been exploited in
the developed countries and the developing countries, too realizing the significance
of this source of power for the higher sustained economic growth and development
of their respective economics, have been embarking on the various phases.
11
hydropower. To make the plan targets in the power sector a reality, directing more
resources to the power projects focusing on rural population remains the pre-
requisite. The major strategies of the power sectors have been appropriately
identified as promoting rural electrification with rural economic development
programs, and strengthening power infrastructure. The immense role of the power
sector in contributing to the generation of broad-based, sustainable and high level
of economic growth as well as improving the relating competitiveness of the
economy both on a regional and global basis makes if imperative that the programs
and activities on the power sectors development as visualized in the plans and
policies be given utmost urgency, priority and focus.
In the modern days, it was only in 1882 that the first hydropower plant was built in
Wisconsin, USA. This plant made use of a fast flowing river as its source. Some
years later, dams were constructed to create artificial water storage area at the
most convenient locations. These dams also controlled water follow rate to the
power station turbines. In Nepal, the first hydropower plant was established at
Pharping (500-KW) in 1911; 22years after the world’s first plant was established,
during Prime Minister Chandra Shamsher Rana’s time to meet the energy
requirements of the members of the ruling class. Though some 60 percent of
Nepal’s population remains deprived of electricity while the capital city continues
the thirst for drinking water and suffers from regular load shedding event at the
present, it is fascinating to note that Nepal has such and early start in the
12
hydropower generation. The first hydropower plant in India was established in
1898 in Darjeeling and the first hydropower plant in China was established in
1912. Originally, hydropower stations were of a small sized set up at water falls in
the vicinity of towns because it was not possible at that time to transmit electrical
energy over long distance. The main reason why there has been large-scale use of
hydropower is because it can now in transmitted inexpensive over hundred of
KMs. Where it is required, making hydropower economically viable.
However, the target was unmet. During the second three plans (1962-65),
some progress was achieved. Till 1962, the progress was achieved. Till 1962,
the electricity department of Nepal government was responsible for the
generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. In 1962, Nepal
Electricity Corporation was established and was given the responsibility of
transmission and distributions of the electricity. The electricity department was
responsible for the task of electricity generation. After a long gap since the
establishment of the Chisang hydro plant, the hydropower generation capacity
of the country expanded with the construction of the Panauti hydro plant (2400
KW) in 1965 and the Trisuli hydro plant (21000 KW) in 1967, a series of
hydropower projects then followed. The eastern electricity corporation was
established in 1974. In 1977, small hydropower development board was
established. Institutional restructuring tool place again in 1985. When the
14
merging of the electricity department, Nepal Electricity Corporation and all the
development boards (except the Marshyangdi hydropower development board)
resulted in the creating of Nepal electricity authority (NEA). Since, this
arrangement, the NEA has been responsible for the generation transmission
and distribution of electricity. Other public sector institutions involved in the
hydropower sector include water and energy commission and its secretariat
constituted in 1976, the policy making body established in1981, and the
department of electricity development. Of late, the private sector is also
emerging as an important player in the hydropower development. Independent
power producers (IPPs) have been the ongoing institutional innovations in the
power sector of Nepal, with IPPs signing power purchase agreement (PPA)
with the NEA to sell electricity. At present, the total hydropower generation
has reached 556.8
15
1.1.3 Small Hydro Plants in Nepal
Environmental problems with the dams such as inundation, salutation,
negative impact to river water quality, harm to riparian ecosystem,
controversies over monopoly buyer, and the fact that the large projects rely on
expensive foreign contracting forms have raised opposition against large-scale
hydropower projects in Nepal although medium to large-scale hydropower
(above 1000 KW) remains the likely choice for meeting Nepal’s urban
electricity demand. Which is growing at an average annual rate of 15 percent,
small hydropower is an attractive alternating to conventional power systems in
rural and remote areas as a means of achieving rural electrification. As only 33
percent of the population has access to electricity from the national grid, there
are many important micro-hydro schemes designed meet the rural demands.
16
sustainable and environmentally-friendly way, with maximum use of the
domestic resources and expertise. Of the total electricity generation, the hydro
plant (up to 1000 KW) generates 8.4 MW and medium-sized hydro plants
(above 1000KW) generate 548.4 MW, with the respective shares of 1.5
percent and 98.5 percent.
18
percent to 55 percent by the end of the Tenth Plan period, as stated above, and
adequate power will be supplied as needed to support economic growth. To
make this outcome a reality, directing more resources to the power projects
focusing on rural population remains the pre-requisite.
In accordance with the priority accorded to this sector, HMG has spent
substantial sums of money for the electricity development in Nepal. The actual
capital outlays on electricity during FY 1998/99 through FY 2003/04 are: Rs.2.3
billion in FY 2004/05, Rs.2.2 billion in FY 2005/06.Rs. 2.8 billion in FY
2006/07, Rs.2.5 billion FY 2007/08 and Rs.2.2 billion in FY 2007/08, and 2.3
billion in FY 2008/09, representing 20.9 percent, 21.6 percent, 23.7 percent,
17.6 percent, 17.4 percent and 20.6 percent of the total capital outlay of HMG
during these six years respectively. The average of these components works out
at 20.4 percent. The public statement on income and expenditure of HMG for
FY 2009/10 has termed roads, electricity and communications as the
prerequisite for economic growth.
19
investment of NEA will issue power bonds with maturity period of 20 to 30
years and invest them for the construction of new projects.
The immense role of the power sector in contributing to the generation of board-
based, sustainable and high level of economic growth makes it imperative that
the programs and activities on power sector development as visualized in the
plans, policies and the annual public statement on income and expenditure of
HMG be given the utmost urgency, priority and focus. The programs of NEA
also need to be completed timely and efficiently. It is very important to realize
that, in the present global scenario where the oil prices are remaining higher and
future provides an uncertain outlook with respect to oil, optimal utilization of
the abundant natural endowment; hydropower would reduce Nepal’s import cost
substantially and contribute to improve the relative competitiveness of the
economy both on a regional and global basis.
The most common type of hydropower plant uses a dam on a river to store
water in a reservoir. Water released from the reservoir flows through a turbine,
spinning it, which, in turn, activates a generator to produce electricity. But
hydropower doesn’t necessarily require a large dam. Some hydropower plants just
use a small canal to channel the river water through a turbine. Another type of
hydropower grid into the electric plant-can even store power. The power is sent
from a power grid into the electric generators. The government then spins the
20
turbines backward, which causes the turbines to pump water from a river or lower
reservoir to an upper reservoir, where the power is stored. To use the power, the
water is released from upper reservoir back down into the river or lower reservoir.
This spins the turbines forward, activating the generators to produce electricity.
Thus, the main components of a hydropower facility are the dam, the
powerhouse that contains the mechanical and electrical equipment, and the
waterways. Water is released from the dam to turn turbines. The turbines drive
generators that produce electricity. The purpose of the dam is to create height fro
the water to fall and to provide storage. However, the dam must also be provided
with a spillway that can accommodate and pass high flows of flood waters without
overtopping the dam or reducing its safety. The flood water comes from heavy rain
or rapid snowmelt on the upstream part of the basin. If it is proposed to utilize not
only the head at the dam but also the fall in the river downstream, a canal, penstock
or tunnel are needed to carry the water to the powerhouse. A canal may also be
needed to carry water from the powerhouse back to the river.
The amount of electrical energy that can be generated from a water source
depends primarily on two things: the distance the water has to fall and the quantity
of water flowing. Hydropower stations are therefore, situated where they can take
advantage of greatest fall of a large quantity of water: at the bottom of deep and
steep-sided valley or gorge, or near the base of a dam. Water is collected and
stored in the dam above the station for use when it is required. Some dams create
big reservoirs to store water by raising the levels of rivers to increase their
capacity. Other dams simply arrest the flow of rivers and divert the water down to
the power station through pipelines. The amount of energy available from the
21
water is above the turbine. The greater the height (or head) of the water above the
turbine, the more energy each cubic meter of water can impart to spin a turbine
which, in turn, drives a generator. The greater the quantity of water, the greater the
number and size of turbine that may be spun, and the greater the power output of
the generators.
The main objective of the study is to fulfil the partial examination of BBS
4th year. And others are follows:
22
1) To identify the historical development of hydropower in Nepal.
2) To identify the current position of hydropower in Nepal
3) To identify the Hydropower policy in Nepal.
Nepal has high potential for hydropower due to glaciers in the Himalayas, regular
monsoon rain and local topography. Himalayan Rivers contain large quantities of
sediment with hard abrasive particles, which is a hurdle for the economic exploitation of
hydropower resources. Erosion of the earth's surface takes place because of influence of
climatic, tectonic and human activities. Almost all the power plants in the Himalayan
region are affected by excessive sediment in rivers that reduce the life of plants either by
filling reservoirs or by erosion of turbine components. The design and operation of
headwork components in hydropower plants can only manipulate sediment particle size
and hence only sediment concentration in the water. The erosion of hydraulic machinery
depends on eroding particles, that is, their size, shape and hardness; on substrates, their
chemistry, elastic properties, surface hardness and surface morphology; and on operating
conditions, velocity, impingement angle and concentration. The shape, size and mineral
content of sediment vary at different locations of the same river system depending on
distance traversed by particles, gradient of the river and the geological formation of the
river course and catchment areas.
The Khimti hydropower project in Nepal represents a typical high head power plant in
the Himalayan River that is affected by river sediment. Erosion tests of turbine material
carried out at Kathmandu University revealed the dependence of erosion rate on mineral
content. The erosion tests have shown trends relative to the quartz content present in
samples from river basins in different parts of the country. There was some indication
that the shape of particles had some effect. Sediments in the hydropower projects are
normally considered as a burden, but there is scope for industrial use of these sediments.
23
known and further research can be conducted or done. Literature reviews are secondary sources,
and do not report new or original experimental work. It is an integral mandatory process in
research works. It is a crucial part of all dissertations. In other words, it's just like fact finding
based on sound theoretical framework oriented towards discovery of relationship guided by
experience, resonating and empirical investigation. The primary purpose of literature review is to
learn which helps researcher to find out what research studies have been conducted in one's
chosen field of study, and what remains to be done. For review study, the researcher uses different
books and journals, reviews and abstract, indexes, reports and dissertation or research studies
published by various institutions, encyclopedia etc.
i. Conceptual Review
ii. Empirical Review
24
financing institutions hesitated supporting hydropower development for about a decade. A World
Bank report titled “Directions in Hydropower” (World Bank 2009) is indicative of changes taking
place on this trend. The report argues that lessons from the past, together with emerging global
energy trends, call for a renewed role for hydropower in global energy developments. Thus, there
is a renewed interest in hydropower development among major stakeholders, but the debate on its
costs and benefits continues. For example, Ansar et al. (2014) claim that cost estimates of past
hydropower projects have been systematically below actual costs as they have not properly
incorporated inflation, debt servicing, and environmental and social costs of large dams. The
article also predicts time and cost overruns of future large dams. It concludes that in many
countries large hydropower dams are too costly to build to deliver positive risk-adjusted returns
unless suitable risk management measures are imbedded in project designs. Despite the fact that
whether time and cost overruns are unique to hydropower or common to all the large civil work
projects remains an interesting research question, Ansar et al. (2014) cast doubts in the minds of
policy makers about hydropower. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on hydropower,
taking on Nepal as a case study. It uses a general equilibrium model to study the economic and
environmental impacts of Nepal’s hydropower development options over 2 decades. This model
takes into account electricity export opportunities to neighboring countries considering
conventional energy price risks. Its sensitivity analysis, which uses the Monte Carlo framework,
demonstrates that Nepal can significantly stimulate economic growth within plausible scenarios of
oil price changes and investment strategy, through national and international joint venture
development of its hydropower potential. In the long run, hydropower generation expansion,
together with the necessary transmission infrastructure development, will significantly increase
national income and make, domestic energy cheaper. It also reduces poverty more effectively than
electricity subsidies. Moreover, this study shows that Nepal has a potential to significantly
contribute in providing environmental services to the South Asian region, by delivering clean,
renewable energy and by climate change mitigation
1.6.2 Empirical Review
The energy sector plays a very important role in economic development and evidence shows that
expanding the electricity sector contributes to economic growth in many countries. The
underperforming electricity sector in Nepal, with inadequate and unreliable supply of poor-quality
electricity, was a major development constraint. This situation has been improving, but even today
basic energy needs of Nepali citizens are only being met partially. The energy sector is still
dominated by traditional sources, where fuel wood accounts for over three-quarters of total energy
consumption. Nepal has no known oil or gas resources and all fossils fuels are imported. As of
25
2019, about 89% of the population has access to electricity, but the supply is of poor quality and
unreliable. Despite the dramatic increase in per capita electricity consumption, from 63 kilowatt-
hours (kWh) per annum in 2000 to 177 kWh per annum in 2018, it remains among the lowest in
the world; Nepal’s per capita electricity consumption is onetwentieth of the global average.
Nepal’s economic growth was less than 4% per annum during the 2000s. This slow growth is
partially attributed to shortages in the supply of electricity for both traditional and modern
industries. This situation has been changing, as it recorded about 6% growth in 2013 and about
7.3% growth on average from 2016 to 2018, after a significant slowdown in 2014 and 2015
mainly resulting from the impacts of the earthquake. Specifically, contribution from both the
agricultural and industrial sectors to the gross domestic product (GDP) has decreased in the past 2
decades. While the relative contribution from the agricultural and industrial sectors declined, the
services sector has grown and currently accounts for the largest share of Nepal’s economy. In
2017, services accounted for 51.6% of GDP, followed by agriculture (26.2%) and industry
(13.4%). It is believed that the recent improvements in electricity supply to the industrial and
service sectors have contributed to better economic growth. This trend in electricity sector growth
is expected to continue along with rapid urbanization and a growing number of energy-intensive
industries. The unconstrained demand for electricity is expected to increase from an estimated
10,138 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2019–2020 to 31,196 GWh in 2029–2030 (Nepal 2019). The
total installed generation capacity in Nepal is only 1,182 megawatts (MW) against a peak
electricity demand of 1,320 MW in fiscal year 2018–2019. Of this, the Nepal Electricity Authority
(NEA) owned 621 MW (generating 34% of total sold electricity) while private investors owned
560 MW of the total installed capacity (generating 29% of total sold electricity). The remaining
requirements were satisfied by importing electricity from India (38% of total electricity sale,
maximum import of about 596 MW). Electricity generation capacity in Nepal is rapidly
increasing. In terms of the recent progress in hydropower development, survey licenses for 302
projects with a total capacity of 15,885 MW have been already issued, out of which 172 projects
have secured generation licenses and construction is ongoing for total capacity of 4,642 MW.
Power purchase agreements have been completed for 244 projects with total capacity of 4,138
MW.
26
1.6.2.1 Review of Journal, Reports, Books and Articles
Energy procedia- 2017 Power generation using hydro resources offers sustainable, zero
energy input cost, zero greenhouse gas emission, low operating and maintenance cost
alternative to fossil fuel based power generation. Currently, nearly 17% of the world's
total power generation is based on hydro resources and its share to renewable power
generation is 70%. Although hydropower is produced in 150 countries, Nepal's
economically feasible hydropower generation capacity is one of the highest. However,
this huge hydropower potential is still untapped. By harnessing the hydro resources
Nepal can meet its domestic demand, create a surplus for export and generate
employment for its citizens. This paper reviews Nepal's current hydropower resources,
projects, future plan and their impact on the economy.
Clarion energy media Nepal has huge potential for hydropower development. The rough
estimate of the potential is more than 80,000 MW. However, the installed hydro capacity as of
2018 is less than 1,000 MW.
Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), a government entity, owns and operates the national grid.
About 60% of the 30 million people living in the country have access to electricity. The rest of
the population still relies on primitive methods of lighting, such as kerosene lamps. The supply
of electricity, however, relies heavily on imports from India, mainly during the winter when the
river flows become very low.
1st International Conference on Energy and Power, ICEP2016, 14-16 December 2016, RMIT
University, Melbourne, Australia Power generation using hydro resources offers sustainable,
zero energy input cost, zero greenhouse gas emission, low operating and maintenance cost
alternative to fossil fuel based power generation. Currently, nearly 17% of the world’s total
power generation is based on hydro resources and its share to renewable power generation is
70%. Although hydropower is produced in 150 countries, Nepal’s economically feasible
hydropower generation capacity is one of the highest. However, this huge hydropower potential
is still untapped. By harnessing the hydro resources Nepal can meet its domestic demand, create
a surplus for export and generate employment for its citizens. This paper reviews Nepal’s current
hydropower resources, projects, future plan and their impact on the economy.
27
determined by various factors. In this research various ratios are systematically analyzed and
generalized. Past researcher has not properly analyzed about lending and its impact on the
profitability. In this research all ratios are categorized according to their area and nature.
Research and study are very important and complex work. They gives us
required information what we need and help us to reach in conclusions which make
possible by field study:-questionnaires, observations, unstructured interviews and
structured interviews. This study is also based on primary and secondary data. The
data play an important role in this research. For the data that cannot be obtained
through field study, they have been obtained from related organization’s report
related magazine and relevant articles in newspapers and relevant websites. The
researcher has tried to describe and analyse the data as far as possible.
28
The present study follows the descriptive as well as analytical design to meet the stated objective
of the study. The importance of the research is to analyze Present situation of hydroelectricity in
Nepal. In relation to credit disbursement and recovery as well as overall management. This
research followed descriptive research design.
The source of data collection is basically secondary and the research is based on secondary
sources of data.
Primary data:
Use of data, which is collected by, second person of the data id prepared by
second person, is called secondary data. In another word the data, which are
initially collected by someone but obtained from published or unpublished sources,
are called secondary data. Due to lack of time and proper feasible investigation the
primary data are limited to certain extent only.
These data has been collected form the office ‘Nepal Electricity Authority’.
In this field work almost secondary data are used. National Planning Commission
29
report, NEA report NRB economic review and other publication are the man
sources of the data.
30
Webpage of Hydroelectricity department
Information given by department staffs.
For the purpose of the study, all data collected are arranged, tabulated under various heads and
then after statistical analysis have been carried out to enlighten the study. Mainly financial
methods are applied for the purpose of the study. Appropriate statistical tools are used. To make
the study more specific and reliable, two types of tools are used for analysis:
A. Financial Tools
B. Statistical Tools
A. Financial tools:
Financial tools are those, which are used for the analysis and interpretation of financial data.
These tools can be used to get the precise knowledge of a business, which in turn, are fruitful in
exploring the strengths and weaknesses of the financial policies and strategies. For the sake of
analysis following various financial tools have been used in order to meet the purpose of the
study. Here, Credit Deposit (CD) ratio has been used in this study.
Mathematically,
B. Statistical tools:
Being the quantitative research, the collected data are analyzed with MS Excel. Almost all the
collected data of this research have been analyzed descriptively with frequency and percentage
and chi-square test for testing hypothesis. The information collected through websites are
transferred into quantitative data sheet and then the necessary tabulation is done using Microsoft
excel. Statistical tools provided in Microsoft excel to make bar chart. In this way various
statistical tools have been used for statistical analysis in this project.
31
For supporting the study, statistical tools such as Mean, Standard Deviation, Coefficient of
Variation, Correlation and diagrammatic cum pictorial tools have been used.
Tabulation Method:
According to purpose:
a) Reference table: It is big and has large data and general in nature.
b) Summary table: It contains data, which may be useful for the study of particular problem and
specific in nature.
According to character:
a) Simple table: It provides information about only one characteristic of the particular data.
b) Complex table: The data are classified with respect to two or more inter-related
characteristics.
Charts:
Pie-chart: It divides the data into several parts into which it is broken up form of circle and the
divided sectors that each represent a proportion of the whole. It is called pie-chart because it
looks like slices of a pie.
Arithmetic Mean
The arithmetic mean (or mean or average) is the most commonly used and readily understood
measure of central tendency. The arithmetic mean is defined as being equal to the sum of the
numerical values of each and every observation divided by the total number of observations.
32
Arithmetic mean represents the entire data by a single value. It provides the gist and gives the
birds' eye view of the huge mass of a widely numerical data. It is calculated as:
n
1
X= ∑X
n i=1 i
Where:
n = number of observations
An average is the sum of a list of numbers divided by the number of numbers in the list. Most of
the time, this is used in finding a number. In mathematics and statistics, this would be called
the arithmetic mean. In statistics, mean, median, and mode are all known as measures of central
tendency.
Correlation coefficient
It is a statistical tool for measuring the intensity or the magnitude of the linear relationship
between two series. Karl Pearson's measure known as Pearson's correlation coefficient between
two variable and series X and Y is usually denoted by 'r' and can be obtained.
The Karl Pearson Coefficient of correlation always falls between -1 and 1. The value of
correlation in minus signifies the negative correlation and in plus signifies the positive
correlation. As the value of correlation reaches to zero, it is said there is no significant
relationship between the variables.
The coefficient of variation measures the relative measure of dispersion, hence capable to
compare two variables independently in terms of variability.
σ
C.V. = × 100
x
σ = Standard Deviation
33
x = sum of the observation
Chapter I: Introduction: includes brief description about the Hydropower project and, statement
of problem, objectives of the study, rationale of the study, Literature review, the research gap,
methodology and limitation of the Study.
Chapter II: Presentation and analysis: research design or approach (quantitative or qualitative);
population and/or sample; collection and tabulation of data; and data analysis procedures;
financial analysis; and major findings. Further, it also includes the ways of presentation of those
relevant data and analyzes them in terms of ratio so as to ease the task of evaluation. Finally, it
consists of major findings or the result.
34
Chapter III: Summary and Conclusion: Presentation of results and findings of project work.
Discussion and Conclusion: Evaluating and interpreting the implications results obtained.
CHAPTER II
Generation Cumulative
35
1941-1950 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.2
2010-2019
In the above table no. 1 decode represent the every 10 year’s development of the hydropower
Second column ‘Generation’ indicates the production of hydropower at that decade and Third column
‘Cumulative’ indicate the total production of hydropower up to the last date of the decade NEA produced
556.8 MW electricity up to the date of 2010.
36
Decade wise Development of
Hydropower Generation
40
35
30
Percentage
25
20 %of to-
15 tal
10
5
0
1911- 1921- 1931- 1941- 1951- 1961- 1971- 1981- 1991- 2001-
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009
Decade
In figure no. 1 the development of Hydropower in decade 1911 to 1920 it is only 0.1% of total
hydropower generate up to the date of 2008 i.e. 556.8 MW. Similarly in other decade 0%, 0.1%, 0%,
4.9%, 4.8%, 32.4%, 22.6%, 35.1% respectively. From this figure it can say that the generation of
hydropower is just run from the decade 1961 to 1970.
37
Decade wise Development of Hydropower
Generation (MW)
195.3
200 180.3
180
160
140 126.9
120
100
Mega watt
Mega Watt
80 (MW)
60
40 27.5
26.7
20
0.5 0 0.6 0 0
0
1911- 1921- 1931- 1941- 1951- 1961- 1971- 1981- 1991- 2001-
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009
Decade
From the figure no. 2 it seems that 0.5 MW in decade 1911 to 1920 and in
upcoming decade 0MW, 6MW, 0MW, 27.5MW, 26.7MW, 180.3MW, 126.9MW,
195.3MW respectively.
38
Dedadewise Cumulative Hydropower
Development(MW)
600 556.8
500
400 361.5
Mega watts
100 55.3
28.6
0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1
0
1911- 1921- 1931- 1941- 1951- 1961- 1971- 1981- 1991- 2001-
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009
Decade
The figure no. 3 shows the total generation of hydropower up to that decade
in MW until the decade of 1961 to 1970 the generation of hydropower is very low.
From the decade 1961 to 1970 it is raising up.
39
Decade wise Cumulative Hydro Power Development(% of Total)
120
100
100
Percentage of Total
80
64.9
60 Total of %
42.3
40
20
9.9
5.1
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
0 0
1911- 1921- 1931- 1941- 1951- 1961- 1971- 1981- 1991- 2001-
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009
Decade
40
Station no/size Capacity Peaking
MW
MW Capacity(MW Peaking
)
Capacity(MW)
1 Kaligandaki-A Hydro 3 x 48 144 144 144
2 Marsyangdi Hydro 3 x 23 69 65 69
3 Kulekhani-1 Hydro 2 x 30 60 60 60
4 Kulekhani-2 Hydro 2 x 16 32 30 30
5 Trishuli Hydro 6 x 3.5 24 21 21
1x3
6 Devighat Hydro 3 x 4.7 14.1 14 14
7 Sunkoshi Hydro 3 x 3.35 10.05 9 9
8 Gangaki Hydro 3x5 15 5 5
9 Jhimruk Hydro 3x4 12 12 12
10 Andhiklola Hydro 3 x 1.7 5.1 5 5
11 Panauti Hydro 3 x 0.8 2.4 1 1
12 Seti Hydro 3 x 0.5 1.5 1 1
13 Phewa Hydro 4 x 0.47 1.08 0.6 0.6
14 Sundarijal Hydro 2 x 0.32 0.64 0.64 0.64
15 Pharping(not in Hydro 1 x 0.5 0.5
operation)
16 Tinau Hydro 2 x 0.25 1 0.52 0.52
1 x 0.5
41
Source: NEA
The above table no. 3 shows the peaking capacity of summer and winter
with installed capacity in MW. Although some station has equal production
capacity in winter and summer but some has different such as Marsyandi, puwa,
Khimti, Bhotekoshi, Indrowoti, Chilime station etc have some different in
production.
Figure No.2.5
42
80
60
summer
Mega watts
40
winter
20
0
d i a ti h i
a ti e
n w im s im
y a Pu Kh eko raw hil
a rs o t n d C
M h I
B
Generating Stations
The above figure no.5 shows the peaking capacity of summer and winter with
installed capacity in Megawatts. Some stations (Marsyandi, Puwa, Khimti,
Bhotekoshi, Indrawoti, Chilime) have different in production in summer and
winter.
43
Distribution of Small Hydro Plants (up to 1000KW)
1-100 8 22.2
101-200 14 38.9
201-300 6 16.7
301-400 3 8.3
401-500 3 8.3
501-600 1 2.8
601-700 1 2.8
Total 36 100.0
The table no. 4 shows the no. of small Hydro plants percentage obtain by
different capacity of hydro plants in total no. of small hydro plants.
44
Distribution of Small Hydro Plants(number)
16
No.of
plants
14
12
10
no. of Hydro plants
0
1-100 101-200 201-300 301-400 401-500 501-600 601-700
Kilowatts
The above figure no.6 shows the distribution of number of small hydro plant
in Nepal on their generation capacity. There are in total 8 hydro plants generate
below 100 KW. Similarly 14 plants under 100 to 200 KW., 6 plants 200 to 300
KW., 3 plants 300 to 400 KW, 3 plants 400 to 500 KW, 1 plant 500 to 600 KW
and 1plant 600 to 700 KW.
1-20 18 72.0
21-40 3 12.0
41-60 2 8.0
61-80 1 4.0
81-100 0 0.0
101-120 0 0.0
121-140 0 0.0
141-160 1 4.0
Total 25 100.0
The table no. 5 shows the number of medium sized hydro plants percentage
obtains by different capacity.
46
Distribution of number of Medium-Sized Hydro plants
20
18 no. of
plants
16
14
12
No. of plants
10
0
1 to 20 21 to 40 41 to 60 61 to 80 81 to 100 101 to 121 to 141 to
120 140 160
Megawatts
Figure no. 7 shows the distribution of number of medium size hydro plant on their
capacity.
Table No.2.5
47
Up-Coming Hydropower Projects
Total 1,54,831
Source: NEA
The table no. 6 shows the hydro power projects are going on construction or
they are in process of construction. If those hydro power construct properly it will
help to generate 1,54,831 KW hydroelectricity in total.
48
CHAPTER III
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS
49
The hydropower potential of Nepal is huge and the sustainable hydropower
development becomes the key to make Nepal’s economic growth scenario brighter,
gaining deep inroads into the national goal and priority of poverty reduction.
Hydropower has a number of benefits.
(c) It has on furl cost and, with low operating and maintenance cost is essential
inflation-proof;
(e) Hydropower stations have a long life and many existing stations have been
in operation for more than half a century and are still operating efficiently,
50
environment for increasing cost effective projects would definitely contribute to
make this target a reality. As a cheap, renewable source of energy with negligible
environmental impacts, small hydropower has an important role to play in Nepal’s
future energy supply.
Micro-hydro systems are particularly suitable for power supplies in rural and
isolated communities, as an economic alternative to extending the electricity grid.
These systems provide a source of chap, independent and continuous power,
without degrading the environment, so essential for the mountainous and
environmentally fragile country like Nepal. To make this outcome a reality,
directing more resources to the power projects focusing on rural population
remains the pre-requisite. The acts and regulations should be made to support the
environment as well as the hydropower development efforts so that the
environment and development go together, especially when it comes to the most
important natural resources development endeavors of the nation.
The major strategies of the power sector have been appropriately identified a
promoting private sector participation in power generation and distribution,
unbundling the activities of the NEA as well as improving its financial viability,
integrating rural electrification with rural economic development programs and
strengthening power infrastructure. In the present global scenario where the oil
prices are remaining higher and future provides an uncertain outlook with respect
to oil, optimal utilization of the abundant natural endowment, viz; hydropower,
would reduce Nepal’s import cost substantially, contribute in improving the
relative competitiveness of the economy both on a regional and global basis, an
fulfil the desire of double-digit sustainable growth in the coming decades.
51
3.2 Recommendations
For the implementation of plan and achieving the targets relation to the
hydropower, development of cost effective small and medium-sized projects to
meet domestic demand at affordable price encouragement of private sectors
investment in hydropower development and power distribution on competitive
basis, acceleration of rural electrification attracting investment from community
and private entrepreneurs, improvement in the integration of social and
environmental and private entrepreneurs, improvement in the integration of social
and environmental mechanism into power development process, encouragement of
the power-based industries and transportation systems to create market for existing
surplus energy an future energy growth are extremely important. Besides,
facilitation the flow of funds from domestic financial sector to the hydropower
sector and institutional set-up for the power export, promoting hydropower
research and development center to assist in preparation of national power system
and improve NEA as a commercially viable entity remain the other challenges.
REFERENCES
53
19 Major Hydropower In Nepal With Present Status & Condition
www.imnepal.com/major-hydropower-in-nepal.
Nepal Energy Situation - energypedia.info
energypedia.info/wiki/Nepal_Energy_Situation
Hydropower Development in Nepal - Climate Change, Impacts and ...
www.intechopen.com/books/renewable-hydropower
Nepal Hydropower Development Program | Fact Sheet | Nepal | U ...
www.usaid.gov/nepal/fact-sheets/nepal-hydropower..
Problems of Nepalese hydropower projects due to suspended ...
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/..
.
54