State of Ndcs 2022

REPORT
The State of
Nationally Determined
Contributions: 2022
Taryn Fransen, Christopher Henderson, Ryan O’Connor, Natalia Alayza, Molly Caldwell, Subrata
Chakrabarty, Aarjan Dixit, Mario Finch, Anna Kustar, Paige Langer, Fred Stolle, Ginette Walls,
and Benjamin Welle
AUTHORS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
TARYN FRANSEN This report was generously supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and
Contact: [email protected] Development of Germany (BMZ), which provided funding for the project as a contribution to the
CHRISTOPHER HENDERSON NDC Partnership.
Contact: [email protected]
We are especially grateful to the teams responsible for collecting and providing the data on which
RYAN O’CONNOR the analysis in this report depends: the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, GIZ, the NDC Registry,
Contact: [email protected] SLOCAT, and Climate Watch.
NATALIA ALAYZA We also would like to thank the following individuals for their thoughtful feedback on earlier
Contact: [email protected] versions of this document: Preety Bhandari, WRI; David Burns, WRI; Rebecca Carter, WRI;
MOLLY CALDWELL Sebastian Castellanos, WRI; Mengpin Ge, WRI; Bernd Hackmann, UNFCCC; Kalyan Keo, United
Contact: [email protected] Nations Development Programme; Marcie Kim; Woojoo Kim, UNFCCC; Sergey Kononov, UNFCCC;
SUBRATA CHAKRABARTY Nisha Krishnan, WRI; Amanda McKee, NDC Partnership; Nikola Medimorec, SLOCAT Partnership;
Contact: [email protected] Stephen Naimoli, WRI; Vintura Silva, UNFCCC; Jamal Srouji, WRI; Costanza Strinati, Climate Policy
Initiative; Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, WRI; David Waskow, WRI; and Emily Weeks, U.S. Agency for
AARJAN DIXIT
International Development.
Finally, we deeply appreciate support during the editing and publication process from Shannon
MARIO FINCH
Collins, Rosie Ettenheim, Renee Pineda, Kathy Schalch, Lauri Scherer, Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, and
Romain Warnault.
ANNA KUSTAR
PAIGE LANGER
FRED STOLLE
GINETTE WALLS
BENJAMIN WELLE
Contact: [email protected] SUGGESTED CITATION
Fransen T., C. Henderson, R. O’Connor, N. Alayza, M. Caldwell, S. Chakrabarty, A. Dixit, M. Finch,
A. Kustar, P. Langer, F. Stolle, G. Walls, and B. Welle. 2022. “The State of Nationally Determined
DESIGN AND LAYOUT Contributions: 2022.” Report. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. Available online at
SHANNON COLLINS doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.22.00043.
[email protected] VERSION 1
October 2022
ii | WRI.ORG
CONTENTS
3 Foreword 91 CHAPTER 5
Finance
5 Executive Summary
93 Overall Finance Requirements Reported
6 Background in NDCs
7 About This Report 95 Mitigation Finance Requirements Reported
in NDCs
17 CHAPTER 1
96 Adaptation Finance Requirements Reported
Introduction
in NDCs
19 Nationally Determined Contributions 96 Costs of Capacity Building and Technology
20 About This Report Transfer
96 Summary and Implications
23 CHAPTER 2
Data and Methods 99 CHAPTER 6
24 Scope of the NDCs Included in the Conclusion
Assessment 100 Incremental Improvement, but
24 Mitigation Data Transformational Change Is Needed
25 Adaptation Data 100 Questions for Further Investigation
26 Finance Data 101 NDC Ambition and Implementation Must
Accelerate
29 CHAPTER 3
Mitigation 102 Appendix
30 Emissions Impact 102 Appendix A: Additional Details on Data and
30 Key Characteristics of Mitigation Measures Methods
45 Sector-Specific Mitigation Measures 112 Abbreviations

67 CHAPTER 4 113 Endnotes
Adaptation
115 References
69 Elements of Adaptation Planning
73 Priority Adaptation Actions and 121 About WRI
Implementation
86 Equity Considerations in Adaptation
The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 1

Foreword
When the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, sectors like forests, power and transport. While most
the foundation was incomplete. The nationally deter- NDCs now also include an adaptation component,
mined contributions (NDCs) from each country that these can be further aligned with more comprehensive
underpinned the ambitious goals of the Paris Agree- planning documents like National Adaptation Plans to
ment—limiting climate change to 1.5 degrees C, advance implementation.
promoting adaptation and resilience, and channeling
To support these commitments, there must also be a
funding toward low-carbon development—fell short on
much greater understanding of the finance needed.
all three fronts.
Only half of NDCs report climate finance require-
The Paris Agreement intended for NDCs to be made ments, and these numbers already amount to almost
more ambitious over time, establishing a five-year $4.3 trillion, underscoring the need for developed
cycle for countries to submit enhanced commit- countries to deliver the climate finance they have
ments. Almost seven years have passed since the first promised. Finance is a key enabler of climate action,
round of commitments to the Paris Agreement, and and it must reach the scale of ambition needed.
80% of NDCs have been updated. The question is:
These findings can steer investment in the next round
where are we now?
of NDCs towards more ambition and effective imple-
In short, the foundation is still emerging. While the mentation. Funders can provide resources to help
Paris Agreement is enhancing global climate ambition, countries fill gaps in critical sectors and topics. Mean-
it is not doing so at a pace or scale consistent with while, researchers can continue to explore what factors
achieving its goals. The latest NDCs aim to reduce motivate countries to increase their ambition and how
2030 emissions by an estimated 5.5 gigatons of carbon NDCs can help drive more transformative action.
dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) more than the initial
The next round of NDCs is due in 2025, and countries
NDCs. This is nearly equivalent to eliminating the
are also expected to update their NDCs ahead of the
annual emissions of the United States, and represents a
COP27 climate summit. We must continue learning
7% reduction from 2019 levels. To keep the 1.5 degrees
from this process to push countries onto the right
C goal within reach, however, countries must reduce
pathway and complete the foundation underlying the
emissions by at least 43%.
Paris Agreement.
This independent assessment, which confirms the key
findings of UN analysis, draws on WRI’s open-source
Climate Watch platform. To unveil key observations
into how NDCs are evolving, Climate Watch tracks
approximately 200 granular indicators and empow-
ers readers to dig into the data to generate their own
insights. Together with Climate Watch, State of
NDCs offers a new level of transparency and detail to
our understanding of Paris Agreement implementation.
From this report, it is clear countries must do much

better at connecting their NDCs to delivering concrete ANI DASGUPTA
action on the ground. While most NDCs now contain President & CEO
sector-specific policies and measures for mitigation, World Resources Institute
there are notable gaps in many NDCs, including in key

Executive Summary
Since the Paris Agreement took effect, the vast
majority of its Parties have communicated a new
or updated nationally determined contribution,
or NDC. Relative to their predecessors, these
new and updated NDCs aim to achieve deeper
emissions reductions, tie more closely to planning
and implementation processes, and document
more thoroughly the finance required to support
their implementation. Overshadowing this progress,
however, is the massive gap that remains between
the NDCs as they currently stand and what it will
take to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
The NDCs must be strengthened across all
dimensions, at a much faster pace, to keep these
goals within reach.

HIGHLIGHTS BACKGROUND
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries around
▪ Countries have communicated 139 new or the world adopted collective goals to pursue efforts to
limit climate change to 1.5°C, promote adaptation and
updated nationally determined contributions
(NDCs), outlining the actions they intend to resilience, and align financial flows with low-emissions,
take to help mitigate climate change and climate-resilient development. These objectives are to be
achieve the Paris Agreement goals. carried out “in the context of sustainable development and
efforts to eradicate poverty,” and in a way that reflects “equity
▪ Drawing on newly available data from the and the principle of common but differentiated and respec-
open-source Climate Watch platform, this tive capabilities, in the light of different national circum-
report captures a detailed snapshot of the stances” (UNFCCC 2015).
NDCs following the latest updates and
NDCs serve as the country-specific building blocks that
examines how they have evolved since the
build towards these collective goals. Article 4 of the Paris
Paris Agreement entered into force.
Agreement requires each Party to the agreement to prepare
▪ The analysis suggests that the Paris and communicate a successive NDC every five years. Par-
ties are required to pursue domestic mitigation (emissions
Agreement is enhancing global climate
ambition—but not at a pace or scale consistent reduction) measures with the aim of achieving the mitigation
with achieving its goals. The latest NDCs aim commitments in their NDCs. In addition, some countries
to reduce 2030 emissions by an estimated 5.5 also use NDCs to articulate their adaptation plans and
finance requirements.
gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e)
more than the initial NDCs. The decision accompanying the Paris Agreement asked
▪ Seventy-seven percent of NDCs include Parties to submit new or updated NDCs by 2020. This
was informally extended to 2021 due to the COVID-19
greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, and
pandemic and related delay of the 26th Conference of the
96 percent include sector-specific mitigation
Parties (COP26). Countries with an NDC with a time frame
targets and other measures.
up to 2025 were requested to communicate a new NDC, and
▪ Eighty-six percent of NDCs include an countries with an NDC with a time frame up to 2030 were
adaptation component, many with improved requested to communicate or update an existing NDC.
detail and sectoral coverage. Linking these to
Countries had communicated 128 new or updated NDCs
instruments such as national adaptation plans
by December 31, 2021. By September 2022, this figure had
is a critical next step. risen to 139. It includes updated first NDCs and new second
▪ Fifty-three percent of NDCs include estimates NDCs as well as first NDCs that were communicated after
December 31, 2019, and it counts the NDC of the European
of climate finance requirements, which total
US$4,282 billion: $2,740 billion for mitigation, Union and its 27 Member States as a single entity. In total,
$1,067 billion for adaptation, and $475 the new and updated NDCs represent 165 countries respon-
sible for 91 per cent of global GHG emissions.
billion unspecified.
These NDCs will form a critical input to the global stock-
take. The global stocktake is a process established under
Article 14 of the Paris Agreement to periodically take stock
of and assess the collective progress towards the implementa-
tion of the agreement and its long-term goals. It begins with
an information collection and preparation phase, which is to
include, inter alia, information on NDCs.
The 2021 Glasgow Climate Pact requests that countries 30, 2022. In addition to Climate Watch, the transport deep
“revisit and strengthen” their 2030 targets to align with the dive draws from the Tracker of Climate Strategies for Trans-
Paris Agreement’s temperature goal by the end of 2022. port from the German Agency for International Cooperation
In addition, the pact strengthens the relationship between (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit)
NDCs and long-term objectives, urging countries to com- and the Partnership on Sustainable, Low Carbon Trans-
municate long-term strategies “towards just transitions to net port. Measures announced but not formally communicated
zero emissions by or around midcentury, taking into account through an NDC are not considered.
different national circumstances,” and noting “the impor-
tance of aligning” NDCs with these strategies. Finally, it Emissions impact
establishes two work programs. One is “to urgently scale up
mitigation ambition and implementation” through 2030. The Of the new or updated NDCs, 74 (representing 100
other is the Glasgow–Sharm el-Sheikh work program on the countries1) increased mitigation ambition; they would
Global Goal on Adaptation (UNFCCC 2021b). result in demonstrably lower 2030 emissions than each
country’s previous NDC (Figure ES-1). Of the remainder,
Countries will communicate a successive round of NDCs 23 would not reduce emissions relative to the initial NDC,
in 2025. Each successive NDC must represent a progression and 42 cannot be compared to the previous NDC due
beyond the Party’s previous NDC and reflect its highest to insufficient information. Of the NDCs that increased
possible ambition. In 2025, countries are encouraged “to mitigation ambition, 18 (accounting for 14 percent of global
communicate a nationally determined contribution with an GHG emissions) are still less ambitious than the country’s
end date of 2035” (UNFCCC 2021a). business-as-usual trajectory, suggesting that, in practice, they
will not help close the emissions gap despite being nominally
better than their predecessors.2
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Collectively, the new and updated NDCs will reduce 2030
This report aims to serve as a reference document on NDC
emissions by an estimated 5.5 GtCO2e relative to the ini-
content and how it has evolved since the Paris Agreement
tial NDCs. This represents a 7 percent reduction from 2019
entered into force, to inform the global stocktake and
levels. According to the IPCC (2022b), however, emissions
the Glasgow work programs on mitigation ambition and
must decline by at least 43 percent from 2019 levels to keep
adaptation, and to shape subsequent NDCs. It captures
the 1.5°C goal within reach.
key insights from the Climate Watch platform of the World
Resources Institute (WRI) and other data sources, and it
raises questions stemming from these data that merit discus- Key characteristics of
sion by policymakers, donors, civil society, and researchers. mitigation measures
The report addresses mitigation, adaptation, and finance More countries have set GHG emissions reduction targets
elements of NDCs. With regard to mitigation, Section 3 than before, and these targets are more likely to be framed
examines GHG reduction targets, their impacts, and the as absolute reductions relative to a base year and to cover
sector-specific mitigation measures that countries plan to all sectors and all GHGs. The number of NDCs with GHG
implement to achieve them. Section 4 analyzes the adapta- emissions reduction targets grew from 128 to 144. Of these
tion elements of NDCs using nine qualitative assessment targets, the number framed as an absolute reduction relative
criteria. Section 5 quantifies the finance requirements that to a base year grew from 34 to 42. The number with complete
countries communicate in their NDCs—for mitigation, for sector coverage grew from 54 to 93, and the number with
adaptation, and overall. complete gas coverage grew from 20 to 23.
The report is based primarily on data from WRI’s Climate These improvements only modestly increase the share of
Watch platform. It examines NDCs communicated through global GHG emissions covered by GHG targets. GHG
December 31, 2021, except in the Emissions Impact and targets in the current NDCs cover approximately 2 percent
Finance sections, which use a later cut-off date of September more emissions than the initial NDCs. This can be explained

FIGURE ES-1 | Mitigation Ambition in New and Updated NDCs Relative to Initial NDCs
Not submitted Submitted; more ambitious emissions reductions Submitted; no further emissions reductions
Submitted; not comparable to initial NDC No data
Note: NDC = nationally determined contribution. Includes NDCs submitted through September 2022.
Source: Authors’ analysis based on WRI (2022).
by the fact that the countries expanding the scope and ing international market mechanisms has increased from
coverage of their targets collectively are responsible for only 99 to 120. Countries with NDCs that are now open to
around 9 percent of global GHG emissions. these mechanisms, however, account for only 40 percent of
global GHG emissions.
In their new and updated NDCs, more countries have
included unconditional elements that do not depend on The number of NDCs containing a long-term (midcen-
international finance or other factors. Many developing tury) GHG reduction target—in addition to a near-term
countries designate all or some of their NDC commitments target—has doubled from 17 in the initial NDCs to 34
as depending on international finance or other conditions, currently. Nevertheless, this number pales in comparison to
such as technology transfer or capacity building. Relative to the more than 90 countries that have announced a net-zero
the initial NDCs, however, more countries have included target outside their NDCs, suggesting that these ambitious,
unconditional elements and finance in their new or updated long-term targets are not yet being fully integrated into
NDCs. The number of NDCs with at least some uncon- countries’ near- and midterm plans.
ditional element increased from 103 to 123, whereas the
Most new and updated NDCs are more transparent than
number that are completely conditional fell from 50 to 34.
the initial NDCs, but approximately 16 percent still lack
More countries express openness to using international crucial information to quantify emissions. Although
market mechanisms (i.e., Article 6) to achieve their NDCs. the guidelines on clarity, transparency, and understanding
The number of NDCs indicating the possibility of employ- adopted at Katowice in 2014 are mandatory only for second
8 | WRI.ORG
NDCs and beyond, there is evidence that countries are start- Over 20 NDCs included LULUCF sector measures in
ing to take them on board, with 117 of the new and updated their new or updated NDCs for the first time, increasing
NDCs improving transparency in some capacity. Neverthe- the total number of NDCs with such measures to over
less, 20 new and updated NDCs still lack the information 140. However, the specific targets, policies, and actions vary
necessary to estimate the countries’ 2030 emissions. sharply in terms of their quantified metrics and implemen-
tation plans. Encouragingly, many countries are including
Sector-specific mitigation measures related to protection, management, and restora-
tion—all of which are needed to reach the goals of the Paris
measures Agreement. Although these increased LULUCF measures
The number of submissions including sector-specific mea- can help improve global ambition, countries with some of
sures has increased across all sectors from the initial to the the largest land sector emissions have some of the weak-
current NDCs (Figure ES-2). Sector-specific measures can est commitments.
include sector-specific GHG targets and non-GHG targets
Many NDCs promote renewable energy generation, but
(for example, targets to increase renewable energy or reduce
fewer seek directly to limit fossil fuels. One hundred fifty
deforestation) as well as other types of measures that are not
current NDCs contain measures addressing the power sector.
framed as targets. A large majority of NDCs now include
Targets and other measures promoting renewable energy are
measures related to energy (154 NDCs); land use, land-use
particularly widespread. Eighty NDCs address solar power,
change, and forestry (LULUCF; 142 NDCs); and transport
and many others address hydropower, wind energy, waste-
(133 NDCs). Although fewer NDCs have measures related
to-energy, and other clean generation technologies. On the
to agriculture (107 NDCs) and waste (116 NDCs), the
other hand, only 51 NDCs contain measures related to fossil
number of NDCs tackling these sectors grew significantly
fuel–fired generation. Only some of these would reduce
from the initial to the current NDCs. Roughly half of cur-
absolute emissions; others would actually expand generation
rent NDCs have measures related to industry and buildings.
from fossil sources (particularly natural gas).
FIGURE ES-2 | Sector-Specific Mitigation Measures in Initial and Current NDCs
Targets Other measures
Land use, land-use change, and forestry
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Agriculture
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Energy
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Transport
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Waste
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Industry
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Buildings
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs
Note: NDC = nationally determined contribution.

10 | WRI.ORG
New fossil fuel infrastructure is at odds with limiting warm-
ing to 1.5°C (IPCC 2022b), and the Glasgow Climate Pact
calls on countries to accelerate efforts “towards the phase-
down of unabated coal power,” with “targeted support to the
poorest and most vulnerable” (UNFCCC 2021b).
More countries are committing to electric mobility, but

attention to other critical transport measures—such as
demand management, modal shift, and freight—lags
behind. The number of NDCs including electrification
actions more than doubled, from 27 initial NDCs to 68 cur-
rent NDCs, revealing a rapid surge of global attention, not
just in developed nations. However, these actions will need to
be coupled with transport demand management and a clean
electrical grid to achieve the greatest emissions reductions.
NDCs include limited focus on reducing dependence on
private motorized transport, increasing the availability and
use of public transit, or prioritizing active mobility where
possible. Freight is responsible for 40 percent of emissions
from the transport sector, but only 19 new and updated
NDCs mention freight mitigation actions. More action is
needed to address freight emissions or else they will continue
to rise with increased global demand.
The next round of NDC updates offers an opportunity for

the 119 signatories of the Global Methane Pledge to spell
out how they will contribute to the collectively promised
30 percent reduction in methane emissions by 2030.
Although most signatories include methane within the scope
of their NDCs’ top-line GHG reduction target, the extent
to which methane will contribute to those targets is typi-
cally unclear, and only 15 NDCs include a methane-specific
emissions reduction target. Seventy-six signatories include
sector-specific measures especially relevant to methane emis-
sions in their NDCs, including 69 in the waste sector, 36 in
the agriculture sector, and 47 in the energy sector.
The number of NDCs that explicitly address the concept

of a just transition has increased from 1 initial NDC to 32
current NDCs. Grounded in the need to support work-
ers and communities facing negative impacts in the shift
away from fossil fuel–based societies, the concept of a just
transition has been integrated into climate change negotia-
tions, declarations, and agreements, including the preamble
to the Paris Agreement and most recently the Glasgow
Climate Pact. The NDCs are beginning to reflect this trend,
though the level of detail they provide on just transition is
highly uneven.
Elements of adaptation planning
An adaptation component is included in 144 current adaptation (Figure ES-3). Countries are also demonstrating
NDCs. Most (139) developing country NDCs include stronger linkages with ongoing or completed NAPs, which
adaptation, but only 5 out of 16 developed country NDCs are much more comprehensive documents than NDCs for
do. Countries may choose to communicate information on adaptation planning.
adaptation planning through separate instruments, such as
adaptation communications. Countries are consistently including information on
climate trends and impacts in their NDCs, with 104 cur-
The current NDCs demonstrate greater alignment than rent submissions providing this information. These trends
the initial NDCs with other adaptation plans and pro- are increasingly supported by the latest assessments and
cesses, including with the national adaptation plan (NAP) national communications, which serve as valuable context
process. Of the current NDC adaptation components, for adaptation.
136 reference linkages to national and sectoral plans for
FIGURE ES-3 | References to Other National Plans and International Frameworks
Initial NDCs (not replaced or updated) Initial NDCs (replaced or updated) New and updated NDCs
Identifies coordination with other development or climate change processes

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Identifies adaptation plans and policies at national/sectoral level

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Identifies adaptation plans and policies at subnational level

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Includes references to other international frameworks and/or conventions

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs

12 | WRI.ORG
Priority adaptation actions
and implementation
In 122 current NDCs, priority adaptation actions are iden- Only 57 current NDCs include information on moni-
tified to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability, and toring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) for adaptation.
these priority actions cover more sectors and systems than Although this number has increased compared to the initial
the initial NDCs. Collectively, the current NDCs include submissions, it represents less than half of total NDCs with
4,641 priority adaptation actions, compared to 2,850 actions adaptation components. Developing countries could benefit
in the initial NDCs. However, this increase is not uniform from improved guidance and tools on tracking adaptation
across NDCs and includes a high variance in the scope and MEL and linking with national MEL frameworks.
detail of activities, suggesting that the number of actions
alone does not adequately capture quality. Using a frame- Only 11 current NDCs include references to transforma-
work that identifies critical systems for adaptation based on tive adaptation, yet 72 include priority adaptation actions
Bapna et al. (2019), the authors found significantly increased with transformative elements. More NDCs are identifying
sectoral coverage, with food and nutrition security, water, and priority actions with transformative elements, including an
nature-based solutions as the three most-prioritized systems expansion in scale or systems change as well as innovation,
in the NDC adaptation components (Figure ES-4). but the lack of direct engagement with transformative adap-
tation (as defined in Chapter 2 of this report) suggests a gap
Although the current NDCs include more priority adapta- in understanding of this emerging concept. Countries could
tion actions than the initial submissions, only 1,826 of benefit from further support to identify transformative adap-
these priority actions (39 percent) include time frames for tation pathways, map the transformative potential of adapta-
action and just 621 (13 percent) list targets or indicators. tion actions, and link their NDC with long-term strategies.
These additional details should be elaborated on through
further action, such as NDC implementation plans or as
elements of the NAP process, to ensure that NDC priority
adaptation actions are implementation ready.

FIGURE ES-4 | Breakdown of Priority Adaptation Actions in the NDCs Using Adapt Now Critical Systems
Food and nutrition security

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Water
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Nature-based solutions
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Disaster risk management

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Infrastructure
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Human health
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Locally led adaptation

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Financing adaptation
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Cities and urban areas

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Other
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Number of priority adaptation actions
Notes: NDC = nationally determined contribution. These numbers exclude instances where sectors appear multiple times for the same adaptation action to avoid duplication for
actions that were coded with multiple subsectors of the same category.
Equity considerations
in adaptation
The current NDC adaptation components focus more Eighty-nine of the current NDCs report climate finance
on equity considerations than the initial submissions, requirements, which total $4,282 billion, including $2,740
both in terms of gender responsiveness and inclusion of billion for mitigation, $1,067 billion for adaptation, and
Indigenous peoples. Seventy-nine current NDCs address $475 billion unspecified (Figures ES-5). When countries
gender differences in adaptation needs, and significantly detail the conditional and unconditional finance require-
more NDCs now discuss gender equity in participation ments, conditional costs are almost three times the amount
and benefits than did so in initial NDCs. Countries are also of unconditional finance reported by countries in their cur-
increasingly referencing local and Indigenous knowledge rent NDCs. In the case of countries that disaggregated their
in the current NDCs as well as supporting Indigenous adaptation and mitigation finance requirements between
rights and agency. conditional and unconditional support, conditional finance
requirements are between seven and two times the amount of
Losses and Damages from unconditional finance, respectively.
Climate Change
Climate-vulnerable countries are increasingly describ- FIGURE ES-5 | Total Stated Climate Finance
ing economic losses and damages (L&D) in their NDCs, Requirements in Current NDCs (US$, billions)
and most countries are including more references to
L&D topics. Sixty current NDCs include descriptions of $5000
economic L&D,3 such as estimated financial costs from
climate change impacts or extreme events. This is down
$4000
from 63 such descriptions in the initial NDCs. But more
countries are including information related to slow-onset
events, human mobility (including migration, displacement, $3000
and planned relocation), and finance and capacity building
to address L&D. Small island developing states, which are
disproportionately vulnerable to climate change impacts, are $2000
the most likely to include information on economic L&D
and L&D topics.
$1000
Finance
$0
The number of NDCs estimating climate finance require-
Adaptation Mitigation Unspecified
ments has increased from 78 initial NDCs to 89 current
NDCs. Countries are not required to report their climate
Note: NDC = nationally determined contribution. Includes NDCs submitted through
finance requirements. Nevertheless, not only are more coun- September 2022.
tries including NDC finance requirements, but they are also Source: Authors’ analysis based on UNFCCC (n.d.).
increasingly disaggregating their mitigation and adaptation
needs for mitigation and adaptation (as opposed to providing
only a lump sum). The number of NDCs reporting mitiga-
tion finance requirements increased from 62 to 70, and those
reporting adaptation finance requirements from 51 to 62. In
addition, the number of countries reporting conditional and
unconditional finance has increased from 39 to 51 and from
25 to 39, respectively.

CHAPTER 1
Introduction
NDCs are the building blocks of the Paris
Agreement, yet in their first iteration, they fell far
short of delivering on the agreement’s collective,
global goals. The agreement established a process
for countries to improve their NDCs over time, and
under this process, a majority of countries have
now submitted new or updated NDCs. This report
takes stock of the NDCs as they currently address
mitigation, adaptation, and finance, and documents
how they have evolved over time.

In the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, every country in 2022b). Similarly, public adaptation finance will need to
the world agreed to pursue efforts to limit climate change to expand five to ten times to meet developing countries’
1.5°C, increase adaptation capacity and foster climate resil- estimated adaptation costs (UNEP 2021a).
ience, and align financial flows with low-emissions, climate-
Countries around the world must grapple with a joint chal-
resilient development (UNFCCC 2015). Yet six years in, the
lenge: to ramp up the ambition of their climate plans, even as
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued
they endeavor to hasten delivery of the plans that exist today.
a stark warning: The planet has already warmed by 1.1°C,
The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26), which met in
and the impacts of climate change to date are more wide-
2021 in Glasgow, was dubbed “the Ambition COP.” Its lead-
spread and severe than previously expected. Risks to people,
ership exhorted countries to strengthen their commitments
species, and ecosystems will rise as temperatures increase,
and—when they were not strengthened enough—COP26
leading to irreversible climate impacts and exacerbating ineq-
ended with pledges to strengthen them further in the lead-
uity and conflict.
up to COP27. Yet ambitious commitments that are never
Under modeling scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C, implemented will neither limit warming nor build resilience.
global emissions peak almost immediately. But under Conversely, COP27 has been dubbed “the Implementation
countries’ current climate plans, they will continue to COP,”4 yet implementation alone, without increased ambi-
grow (UNFCCC 2021c). Rapid transformations across all tion in mitigation and adaptation, will likewise place the
systems—energy, industry, buildings, transport, and land Paris Agreement goals out of reach.
and food systems—are needed to change course. Mitiga-
The premise of this report is that a robust understanding of
tion finance will need to be three to six times greater to
existing NDCs and how they have evolved since the initial
limit warming to below 2°C, to say nothing of 1.5°C (IPCC
round is a necessary foundation to strengthen both ambition
and implementation.
18 | WRI.ORG
NATIONALLY DETERMINED
CONTRIBUTIONS
To achieve its goals, the Paris Agreement introduces several finance in NDCs. In practice, many countries, especially
mechanisms and processes to the international climate developing countries, communicate adaptation plans as well
change regime.5 Key among these is a five-year cycle as finance requirements for both adaptation and mitigation
designed to increase the ambition of climate action over through their NDCs.
time. The starting point for this “ambition mechanism” are
Article 4 of the Paris Agreement requires each Party to
Parties’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which
prepare and communicate a successive NDC every five years.
outline their commitments to address climate change.
Each successive NDC must represent a progression beyond
NDCs are highly diverse in their contents. Although the the Party’s current NDC and reflect its highest possible
Paris Agreement creates a “hard obligation” to address ambition (UNFCCC 2015). The COP decision text that
mitigation via NDCs (Rajamani 2016), its provisions gave effect to the Paris Agreement in 2015 also requested
regarding the role of adaptation, as well as finance and other that Parties communicate a new NDC (for those with a
means of implementation, in NDCs are softer. With regard 2025 target) or either communicate or update their existing
to adaptation, Parties are invited to submit and periodically NDC (for those with a 2030 target) by 2020. This process
update adaptation communications through their NDCs or was informally extended beyond 2020 as a result of the
through any other communication or document, including COVID-19 pandemic and the associated delay of COP26 to
national adaptation plans (NAPs) or national communica- November 2021. A majority of countries communicated new
tions. There are no specific provisions guiding the role of or updated NDCs by COP26. The COP26 decision requests

Parties “revisit and strengthen” their 2030 NDC targets “as 2022; UNDP 2021), including their adaptation components
necessary to align with the Paris Agreement temperature (Dixit et al. 2022); and shed light on the treatment of specific
goal” by the end of 2022 (UNFCCC 2021b). sectors in NDCs (GIZ and SLOCAT 2022; IRENA 2022;
WWF-UK 2021). It complements this literature by offer-
The Paris Agreement also establishes opportunities to ing a comprehensive view of the NDCs—across mitiga-
assess collective progress toward achieving the purpose of tion, adaptation, and finance, covering both developed and
the agreement and its long-term goals every five years. The developing countries—based primarily on Climate Watch,
first such “global stocktake” will conclude in 2023, ahead of an open-source, independent data set comprising nearly 200
a requirement to communicate the next round of NDCs. quantitative and qualitative NDC-related indicators.
The outcome of the stocktake will inform this next round of
NDCs by ensuring that Parties have information to enhance
the ambition of their NDCs and further collective progress Scope
towards the long-term goals. The report covers mitigation, adaptation, and finance
elements of NDCs. Chapter 3 addresses greenhouse gas
Each cycle of NDC communication offers Parties the
(GHG) reduction targets and the sector-specific mitigation
opportunity to assess whether their mitigation contributions
measures countries plan to implement. It includes “deep
reflect their “highest possible ambition” and whether they
dives” into several key sectors—namely power; transport;
could do more to contribute to collective efforts to achieve
and land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF)—
the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, “in
and also into the relationship between NDC content and
accordance with equity and the principle of common but dif-
methane, including the Global Methane Pledge launched
ferentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the
at COP26 in Glasgow, and between NDC content and
light of different national circumstances,” as the agreement
a just transition. Chapter 4 analyzes the adaptation ele-
stipulates (UNFCCC 2015).
ments of NDCs using nine qualitative assessment criteria:
country ownership; alignment with planning exercises and
ABOUT THIS REPORT other adaptation plans and policies; use of impact, risk, and
vulnerability information; a focus on critical adaptation
Objectives and contribution systems; the presence of additional information for prior-
ity actions, such as baselines, time frames, and costs; clarity
This report presents a snapshot of the NDCs and sheds about monitoring and evaluation approaches; commitments
light on how they have evolved since their initial incarnation to social inclusion, gender, and equity; references to losses
following the adoption of the Paris Agreement. It has three and damages (L&D)6 from climate change; and evidence of
main objectives: transformative adaptation. It also includes a deep dive into
▪ To serve as a reference document on NDC content

food and nutrition security. The finance chapter analyzes
▪ To serve as a data-driven input to strategic discussions

regarding the Glasgow mitigation and adaptation work
programs, the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), and
the first global stocktake
▪ To inform subsequent NDCs, including the 2025

round, by raising questions stemming from NDC data
that merit further exploration by researchers, funders,
and policymakers
The report contributes to a growing body of NDC literature

that has sought to quantify the impact of NDCs on global
emissions (UNEP 2021b; UNFCCC 2021c); draw out
lessons on developing countries’ NDCs (NDC Partnership
20 | WRI.ORG
countries’ NDC climate finance requirements, differentiating issues are relevant to both the mitigation and the adaptation
between adaptation, mitigation, unspecified, and conditional elements of NDCs, Climate Watch contains these indica-
and unconditional finance. tors only as they pertain to adaptation. Therefore, we do
not analyze them for mitigation. Developing a data set that
The analysis is based primarily on data from the Climate addresses these indicators in the context of mitigation would
Watch platform hosted by the World Resources Institute be a valuable future contribution. Likewise, while Climate
(WRI 2022). In addition to Climate Watch, the transport Watch maintains a data set on the relationship between
deep dive draws from the Tracker of Climate Strategies NDC content and the Sustainable Development Goals
for Transport, collected jointly by the German Agency (SDGs), this data set has not yet been updated to reflect
for International Cooperation (Deutsche Gesellschaft für the new and updated NDCs, so it has not been included in
Internationale Zusammenarbeit; GIZ) and the Partnership this analysis.
on Sustainable, Low Carbon Transport (SLOCAT), and the
finance analyses (for both mitigation and adaptation) draw Countries are not required to report on adaptation or finance
from original data collected for this report. requirements in their NDCs; hence, not every NDC includes
information on these topics. With regard to finance, some
Limitations countries’ NDCs state that they will estimate their climate
finance and support needs through their national strategies,
From January 1 through September 30, 2022, 18 new and such as climate finance strategies or implementation plans,
updated NDCs were communicated, of which 11 were from which were not included in this analysis. In addition, there
countries that had not previously communicated a new or is no standard methodology for countries to report climate
updated NDC. While the Emissions Impact and Finance finance requirements. In some cases, countries’ reported
chapters consider these latest NDCs, the other chapters— finance requirements have been presented on different time
Key Characteristics of Mitigation Measures, Sector-Specific frames or levels of aggregation. Thus, the report was unable
Mitigation Measures, and Adaptation—consider only those to standardize all country estimates under the same time
NDCs submitted through 2021. frame or incorporate all information that may have been pre-
sented in other national planning documents. As a result, the
The reliance of this report on an existing data set limits the
estimated aggregate climate finance requirements reported in
scope of analysis that can be conducted to questions that can
the NDCs likely underestimate the actual needs, particularly
be addressed using the indicators and data points contained
because some countries still need to conduct further needs
in that data set. As a result, our ability to address a number
assessments; some have provided finance costs in docu-
of interesting and relevant questions related to the NDCs
ments other than NDCs; and capacity building, technology
is constrained. For example, although issues related to the
transfer, and L&D costs are not typically included in climate
NDC development process, implementation planning, and
finance estimates.
equity considerations related to gender and Indigenous
CHAPTER 2
Data and Methods

The analysis for this report draws primarily on
WRI’s open-source Climate Watch platform. Climate
Watch tracks around 200 indicators based on data
collected from the UNFCCC NDC Registry.

SCOPE OF THE NDCS
INCLUDED IN THE
ASSESSMENT
One hundred ninety-four Parties have communicated a the Climate Watch NDC Enhancement Tracker (WRI
first NDC under the Paris Agreement.7 Through Septem- 2022)—with minor adjustments to promote consistency with
ber 2022, 166 Parties had communicated an updated first the UNFCCC Synthesis Report (UNFCCC 2021c)—and is
NDC (Parties whose first NDC contained a time frame further detailed in Appendix A (Table A1).
up to 2030) or a second NDC (Parties whose first NDC
Two minor modifications to this approach apply to Chapter
contained a time frame up to 2025). Those Parties included
4. First, in two cases where countries submitted multiple
the European Union and its 27 Member States, which share
new or updated NDCs, the most recent submission was not
a common NDC. Therefore, through September 2022, 167
considered because the update pertained only to mitigation
first NDCs and 139 updated first and second NDCs had
commitments.10 Second, because the adaptation data set
been communicated. The Emissions Impact and Finance
used for this analysis does not contain INDCs, Chapter 4
sections of this report consider all updated first and second
excludes the INDCs of five countries from the initial NDC
NDCs through September 2022. The remaining sections—
grouping and categorizes their first NDCs as initial NDCs
Key Characteristics of Mitigation Measures, Sector-Specific
instead. As a result, we consider 139 new and updated NDCs
Mitigation Measures, and Adaptation—use an earlier cut-off
for Emissions Impact and Finance, 128 for Key Characteris-
date of December 31, 2021, at which point 128 updated first
tics of Mitigation Measures and Sector-Specific Mitigation
and second NDCs had been communicated.8
Measures, and 123 for Adaptation.
To analyze how the NDCs have evolved since countries’
Commitments that are not reflected in an NDC submitted
initial submissions, we categorize NDCs into initial NDCs
to the UNFCCC are not considered in this analysis.
(each country’s most recent submission as of December 31,
2019, excluding updated first NDCs and second NDCs as
well as intended NDCs [INDCs] dated subsequent to first
NDCs), new and updated NDCs (submissions that updated
MITIGATION DATA
or replaced an initial NDC between January 1, 2020, and the The data on NDCs used in this report were collected by
cut-off date), and current NDCs (submissions effective as of Climate Watch, an online platform managed by WRI that
the cut-off date—that is, new or updated NDCs for those provides open climate data, visualizations, and resources for
countries that had submitted one and initial NDCs for those use on its NDC Explorer and NDC Enhancement Tracker
that had not). Initial NDCs are typically first NDCs but, in modules. The high-level data collected on each NDC include
select cases, can be INDCs.9 New and updated NDCs are information on every country’s GHG targets, estimated
typically updated first or second NDCs but, in select cases, 2030 emissions, scope and coverage, conditionality, and
can be first NDCs. This categorization is based on data from many other indicators, and the data are gathered directly
from countries’ NDC documents as found on the UNFCCC
NDC Registry or—in the case of 2030 emissions—esti-
mated based on the methodology laid out in Fransen et
One hundred ninety- al. (2021). The data were used to analyze overall trends in
four Parties have NDCs for Chapter 3 of this paper. Data on 2018 global
GHG emissions and methane emissions are from Climate
communicated a first Watch’s GHG Emissions module, which collects data from
the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool, Potsdam Institute for
NDC under the Paris Climate Impact Research, UNFCCC, the Global Carbon
Agreement Project, and other sources.
24 | WRI.ORG
Climate Watch collected the data for sector-specific commit-
ments using a methodology adapted from the World Bank’s
ADAPTATION DATA
NDC platform. Each measure in an NDC document that is The authors collected and analyzed data for the NDC
specific to a sector is classified as a sectoral plan, target, pol- adaptation components using the methodology developed
icy, or action, and it is categorized as falling under a specific by Dixit et al. (2022). The data collected for this chapter are
sector and subsector. Sectors include agriculture, buildings, available on the Climate Watch platform, and further details
energy, industries, LULUCF, transport, and waste. Climate on the methodological choices underlying this chapter, and
Watch collected further information, where available, on the their rationale, can be found in Dixit et al. (2022).
emissions reduction potential, costs, and capacity building or
The framework includes elements and indicators for assess-
technology needs associated with each measure as well as the
ing the content of NDCs, with improved consideration of
part of each measure that was conditional or unconditional.
these elements representing increased ambition of the adap-
More information on the subsectors and indicators used for
tation component. The methodology comprises four sections
this analysis can be found in Appendix A.
for analyzing adaptation:
Data for the transport deep dive comes from the Tracker of
Climate Strategies for Transport, collected jointly by GIZ ▪ Elements of adaptation communications assesses indicators
and SLOCAT. This data set was preferred for the transport related to country ownership of NDCs; NDC alignment
sector because labels and data filters were already established with planning exercises and other adaptation plans
to streamline data collection. Findings were cross-checked and policies; the use of the latest impact, risk, and
with the Climate Watch NDC Enhancement Tracker to vulnerability information; clarity about monitoring
ensure consistency throughout the report. and evaluation approaches; and commitments to social
inclusion, gender, and equity.
▪ Critical
To identify NDCs that address a just transition, the authors
systems and sectors in priority adaptation actions
performed a word search within both the Climate Watch
assesses the categories prioritized for adaptation action
NDC Explorer (WRI 2022) and the UNFCCC’s NDC
developed by the Global Commission on Adaptation’s
registry (UNFCCC n.d.) for the term just transition and
Adapt Now report (Bapna et al. 2019)—for example, food
reviewed the NDCs containing the term.
and nutrition security, water, and nature-based solutions

(NbS)—as well as the presence of additional information, a significant expansion in scale or address change in the
such as baselines, time frames, and costs associated underlying system, include innovation, and include a shift
with these actions. in the location of the adaptation action.
▪ Losses and damages assesses whether L&D and related

Chapter 4 of this report differs from Dixit et al. (2022)
elements are included in NDCs. The section provides
in two ways: first, by analyzing NDC submissions until
a broad analysis of L&D in the NDCs and is not
December 31, 2021 (in contrast to June 30, 2021, in Dixit et
exclusively limited to components on L&D that are
al.); and second, by including countries that had not submit-
explicitly included in some NDC documents. The
ted a new or updated NDC by the cutoff date (Dixit et al.
assessment framework for this section was developed
included only those countries submitting a new or updated
based on strategic work streams and activities included in
NDC) to get a more comprehensive look at the state of
the work plan of the UNFCCC’s Warsaw International
adaptation in the NDCs.
Mechanism on Loss and Damage (WIM Excom 2019).
▪ Transformative adaptation assesses the extent to which

The adaptation data set only includes NDCs that appear
on the NDC Registry (UNFCCC n.d.); thus, INDCs were
the adaptation actions prioritized in NDCs align with
not analyzed in this chapter. For countries that submitted
“transformative” approaches, such as “actions that seek
multiple NDC updates in the 2020–21 submission round,
to create systemic change through an expansion in scale,
new NDCs were only analyzed if they included additional
through innovation, or through a shift in location in
adaptation information.
response to climate change” based on previous WRI work
on transformative adaptation in the food and nutrition
security system (Carter et al. 2018; Carter et al. 2021;
Ferdinand et al. 2020) and derived from the IPCC’s
FINANCE DATA
2014 definition of the term (IPCC 2014). It assesses The Standing Committee on Finance characterizes climate
explicit references to transformative adaptation in the finance as that which “aims at reducing emissions and
NDCs as well as priority adaptation actions that indicate enhancing sinks of GHGs and aims at reducing vulner-
ability of, and maintaining and increasing the resilience of, All values are shown in billions of U.S. dollars, and origi-
human and ecological systems to negative climate change nal aggregated values were converted by applying World
impacts” (UNFCCC 2014). For the purpose of this report, Bank’s official exchange rates as of the year of when the
climate finance requirements are understood as the costs, NDC was issued.
investments, or mobilization goals stated by countries to
This report presents finance requirements on a cumulative
achieve their NDCs.
rather than annual basis. Finance requirements presented in
The data found in this chapter is available on Climate Watch this report do not intend to fully reflect the finance require-
(WRI 2022). To create it, the authors extracted and analyzed ments of all countries since several have stated in their
finance data from countries’ NDC documents found in the NDCs that they are still working on identifying and refining
UNFCCC NDC Registry (UNFCCC n.d). total climate finance estimates. Some countries have pro-
vided cumulative values for specific time frames, typically for
Climate finance requirements were taken at face value, roughly 2021–30. Others provided annual estimates. When
without analyzing the methodologies countries used to countries provided yearly need estimates, these were mul-
estimate their requirements (which typically are not avail- tiplied by the number of years of the NDC timeframe. The
able within the NDC). In case an NDC included multiple analysis also includes a classification of needs that differenti-
climate finance requirement scenarios, the least conservative ates between mitigation and adaptation and conditional or
(i.e., highest dollar value) scenario was used. Where countries unconditional finance requirements. If a country did not
stated that a portion of the total requirements were uncon- distinguish between mitigation and adaptation, the aggregate
ditional, the report assumes the remaining requirements are number was classified as unspecified and considered for the
conditional to international support or vice versa. total climate finance requirements.
Figures that were reported on a disaggregated, project level
were summed to provide aggregate figures for mitigation,
adaptation, conditional, unconditional, and the other totals
presented in this report.
CHAPTER 3
Mitigation
Most NDCs include economy-wide targets to
reduce GHG emissions as well as targets and
other measures that address specific sectors of
the economy. This chapter quantifies the impact of
the GHG targets, examining their form, coverage
of sectors and gases, and other important
characteristics. It also presents an overview of the
sector-specific measures, including deep dives on
measures related to forests and land use, power,
and transport. Finally, it examines how NDCs
address methane and just transition.

EMISSIONS IMPACT KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF
Of the 139 new or updated NDCs communicated through MITIGATION MEASURES
September 2022, 74 of them definitively committed to lower
This chapter explores the over-arching mitigation commit-
2030 emissions than their predecessors. The remainder either
ments countries made in their NDCs. 11 It examines their
did not reduce emissions relative to their predecessors (23) or
form, sector and gas coverage, conditionality, and use of
contained insufficient information to make this determina-
international market mechanisms. Finally, it reviews the use
tion (Figure 1). (See Box 1 for further information on clarity,
of long-term (post-2030) greenhouse gas targets in NDCs.
transparency, and understanding in NDCs.)
Collectively, the new and updated NDCs aim to reduce

global emissions by an estimated 5.5 gigatons of carbon
dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) relative to the initial NDCs, a 7
BOX 1 | Clarity, Transparency, and Understanding
percent reduction from 2019 levels. For NDCs that contain
both unconditional and conditional elements, this figure
considers the unconditional elements only. It also adjusts for The Paris Agreement stipulated that in communicat-
“hot air,” or target emissions levels that are improbably high ing their nationally determined contributions (NDCs),
relative to modeled baselines. Further methodological details “all Parties shall provide the information necessary for
clarity, transparency and understanding.”a These details
can be found in Appendix A. By contrast, the IPCC (2022b)
were elaborated in the Katowice Climate Package,
finds that in pathways consistent with limiting warming to
adopted in 2018.b Guidelines governing clarity, transpar-
1.5°C, emissions fall by at least 43 percent from 2019 levels
ency, and understanding did not exist when the initial
by 2030). Progress in NDCs will need to accelerate dramati- NDCs were put forward, and more than one-third of
cally to keep the agreement’s objective of limiting warming NDCs lacked the necessary information to quantify
to 1.5°C within reach. their effect on future emissions.c Although the Katowice
guidelines will be mandatory only for future NDCs,
More than 85 percent of the enhanced emissions reduc-
they are “strongly encouraged” for NDCs analyzed in
tions in the new and updated NDCs can be attributed to this report. Of these 128 new and updated NDCs, 117
countries increasing the stringency of their existing targets enhanced clarity, transparency, and understanding
(i.e., switching from a 45 percent to a 55 percent reduction). to some extent.d Nevertheless, 20 new and updated
Other factors include revisions to target reference levels NDCs still lack the necessary info to quantify their
(emissions in a base year or baseline scenario), adoption of country’s 2030 emissions,e leaving significant room for
new targets by countries that did not previously have targets, improvement.
and expanding the sector or gas coverage of existing targets. Sources: a. UNFCCC 2015; b. UNFCCC 2018; c. Ge and Yuan 2018; d, e.
WRI 2022.
30 | WRI.ORG
FIGURE 1 | Mitigation Ambition in New and Updated NDCs Relative to Initial NDCs
Not submitted Submitted; more ambitious emissions reductions Submitted; no further emissions reductions
Submitted; not comparable to initial NDC No data
Notes: NDC = nationally determined contribution. Emissions do not sum to 100% due to international sources not captured by national emissions inventories.
Source: Authors’ analysis of WRI (2022).
Type of emissions targets and

other mitigation contributions
Mitigation commitments in NDCs can take on a variety of not contain a GHG target, regardless of whether they also
forms. These include GHG targets, non-GHG targets, and include other nontarget measures), and actions only (NDCs
other measures, such as policies and actions, as described that contain neither GHG nor non-GHG targets).
in Box 2. Although the Paris Agreement allows countries
Of the initial NDCs, 128 were based on GHG targets, 15
to define their own mitigation commitments, it stipulates
were based on non-GHG targets, and 24 on policies and
that developed countries should take the lead by adopting
actions only (with neither GHG nor non-GHG targets).
“economy-wide absolute emissions reduction targets” and
Following the latest round of NDC updates, 144 were based
encourages developing countries to “move over time” to
on GHG targets, 14 on non-GHG targets, and 9 on actions
economy-wide emissions targets (UNFCCC 2015).
only (Figure 2). Because all developed countries already had
Although NDCs can include various combinations of GHG targets, the increase in GHG targets stems entirely
mitigation contribution types, we categorize NDCs into from developing countries. Those countries that have submit-
three overarching groups: GHG targets (NDCs that contain ted a new or updated NDC reflect a shift towards GHG
a GHG target, regardless of whether they also include non- targets and away from actions only, with 113 of the new and
GHG targets and/or other measures), non-GHG targets updated NDCs including GHG targets, 12 including non-
(NDCs that contain at least one non-GHG target and do GHG targets, and only 3 including actions only. Although

BOX 2 | Types of Mitigation Contributions
Figure B2.1 illustrates the different types of mitigation contri- ▪ Intensity targets are commitments to reduce emissions
butions found in nationally determined contributions (NDCs). intensity (emissions per unit of another variable, such as
These types are not mutually exclusive; multiple types may gross domestic product [GDP] or population).
appear in the same NDC.
▪ Trajectory targets are commitments to reduce, or to
Greenhouse gas (GHG) targets refer to reducing or limiting limit the increase of, emissions to specified emissions
GHG emissions by a specified amount in a specified time- quantities in multiple target years or periods over a long
frame and can take on the following different forms:a time period and include targets to peak emissions by a
given date.
▪ Base-year targets are commitments to reduce, or to Non-GHG targets are framed in terms of “specific, quantifi-
control the increase of, emissions by a specified quantity
able, desired outcomes in energy efficiency, renewable
relative to a base year.
energy, forestry, or other sectors, and that are not expressed
▪ Fixed-level targets are commitments to reduce, or to limit in terms of GHG emissions or emissions reductions.”b
the increase of, emissions to an absolute emissions level
in a target year or target period (for example, the carbon Other measures are typically framed as policies and actions
budget is a multiyear fixed-level target). that refer to “Parties’ intentions or commitments to implement
▪ Baseline scenario targets are commitments to reduce policies, measures, and projects that will help achieve GHG
emissions reductions.”c For example, an NDC based on poli-
emissions by a specified amount relative to a projected
cies and actions may state an intent to increase sustainable
emissions baseline scenario, often characterized as a
forest management or promote methane capture, without
“business-as-usual” scenario.
setting quantitative goals for these actions (which would
constitute targets).
FIGURE B2.1 | Types of Mitigation Contributions
Mitigation
contributions
Non-GHG Policies and

GHG targets targets actions
Baseline
Base-year Fixed-level Intensity Trajectory
scenario
targets targets targets targets
targets
Note: GHG = greenhouse gas.
Sources: a. Fransen et al. 2021; GHG Protocol 2014; Levin et al. 2015; b, c. Fransen et al. 2021.
32 | WRI.ORG
a significant share of those countries without GHG targets Most of the largest emitters already had GHG targets prior
in their previous NDCs adopted such targets in their most to the new and updated NDCs, so the impact of the latest
recent NDCs, three countries went the opposite direction, round on the share of global emissions covered by GHG
dropping the GHG targets in their initial NDCs from their targets is relatively small. Ninety-one percent of emissions
new or updated NDCs. are now covered by GHG targets, compared to 89 percent
previously (Figure 3).
FIGURE 2 | Mitigation Commitments in Initial versus Current NDCs
Initial NDCs Current NDCs
GHG target
(128)
GHG target
(144)
Non-GHG
target (15)
Actions
(9)
Actions
(24) Non-GHG
target (14)
Notes: GHG = greenhouse gas; NDC = nationally determined contribution.


FIGURE 3 |Share of Global GHG Emissions Covered by Different Mitigation Contribution Types in Initial versus
Current NDCs
GHG target Non-GHG target Actions
Initial
NDCs
Current
NDCs
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percentage of emissions
Note: NDC = nationally determined contribution. Emissions do not sum to 100% due to international sources not captured by national emissions inventories.
The Paris Agreement states that developed countries should

Target coverage
adopt GHG targets framed as absolute emissions reductions
relative to a historic base year, and all except Turkey have The Paris Agreement requires (for developed countries) or
done so in both their initial and their current NDCs. In the encourages (for others) economy-wide targets. Targets that
new or updated NDCs, a growing number of developing cover all sectors of the economy—energy, waste, industrial
countries have done so as well. processes and product use, agriculture, and LULUCF—and
all relevant GHGs—CO2, methane (CH4), hydrofluoro-
Of the initial NDCs, 34 contained base-year targets, 77 carbons (HFCs), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), nitrous oxide
contained baseline-scenario targets, 17 contained other types (N2O), perfluorochemicals (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride
of GHG targets (e.g., intensity targets, fixed-level targets, (SF6)—can help ensure that countries will examine all
etc.), and 39 had no GHG target. In the current NDCs, all opportunities to reduce emissions rather than omit some
types of GHG targets increased modestly, as a greater share important sources or gases.
of developing countries adopted GHG targets for the first
time. Base-year targets increased the most, with 42 NDCs Sectoral coverage
(15 belonging to developed and 27 to developing countries)
now having base-year targets (Figure 4). Of those countries Many countries improved their sectoral coverage in their
adopting a GHG target for the first time in new or updated new and updated NDCs. Of the initial NDCs, 54 had GHG
NDCs, most chose baseline scenario targets, keeping this targets that covered all sectors, and another 13 had complete
type the most common target despite the broader shift sectoral coverage aside from LULUCF. Now 93 cover all
towards base-year targets. Although eight countries moved sectors, and another 12 cover all but LULUCF. The num-
from baseline-scenario to base-year targets, three went in the ber of NDCs with incomplete sectoral coverage has fallen
opposite direction, abandoning their base-year targets for from 54 to 35 (Figures 5 and 6). These changes stem nearly
baseline-scenario targets. exclusively from developing countries. (Among developed
countries’ NDCs, 14 out of 16 had complete sectoral cover-
age prior to the updates; now, 15 out of 16 do.)
34 | WRI.ORG
FIGURE 4 | GHG Target Types in Initial versus Current NDCs
Base-year
target (34) Base-year
target (42)
Baseline- Baseline-
scenario scenario
target (77) target (83)
Other GHG
target type (17)
Other GHG
target type (18)
No GHG
target (39)
No GHG
target (24)
Notes: GHG = greenhouse gas; NDC = nationally determined contribution.


FIGURE 5 | Number of Initial and Current NDCs with GHG Targets Covering Each Sector
Covers energy
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Covers waste
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Covers agriculture
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Covers land use, land-use change, and forestry
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Covers industry
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Number of NDCs
Notes: NDC = nationally determined contribution. Does not include NDCs with GHG targets that do not specify sectoral coverage.
36 | WRI.ORG
FIGURE 6 | Sector Coverage of GHG Targets in Initial versus Current NDCs
Complete
sector coverage
including
LULUCF (54)
Complete
sector coverage
including
LULUCF (93)
Complete
sector coverage
excluding
LULUCF (13)
Incomplete
sector coverage
(54) No GHG
target (23)
Complete
sector coverage
excluding
LULUCF (12)
No GHG
Incomplete
target (39)
sector coverage
(35)
Not specified (7) Not specified (4)
Note: GHG = greenhouse gas; LULUCF = land use, land-use change, and forestry; NDC = nationally determined contribution.

GHG coverage
Of the initial NDCs, only 20 had GHG targets that covered Although 11 countries improved their gas coverage in their
all major anthropogenic GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, NDC updates (not counting those adopting a GHG target
PFCs, SF6, and NF3). (Another 18 had targets that cov- for the first time), 12 that initially included all gases, or
ered all but NF3.) The current NDCs reflect only modest all except NF3, backtracked to less complete gas coverage
change, with 23 covering all gases and 14 covering all but in their new or updated NDC, or they declined to specify
NF3 (Figure 7).
FIGURE 7 | Number of Initial and Current NDCs with GHG Targets Covering Each GHG
Covers CO2
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Covers CH4
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Covers N2O
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Covers HFCs
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Covers PFCs
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Covers SF6
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Covers NF3
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Number of NDCs
Notes: CH4 = methane; CO2 = carbon dioxide; HFCs = hydrofluorocarbons; NDC = nationally determined contribution; NF3 = nitrogen trifluoride; N2O = nitrous oxide; PFCs =
perfluorochemicals; SF6 = sulfur hexafluoride. Does not include NDCs with greenhouse gas targets that do not specify greenhouse gas coverage.
38 | WRI.ORG
which gases they would cover (Figure 8). Once again, most Emissions coverage of GHG targets
of the changes took place in developing countries. Among
When considering changes in both sector and gas coverage,
developed countries’ NDCs, 15 out of 16 had complete gas
GHG targets in the current NDCs cover approximately 2
coverage prior to the updates, and now 14 out of 16 do, with
percent more global emissions than the initial NDCs. This
one country that formerly had complete coverage failing to
relatively modest increase can be explained by the fact that
specify coverage in its most recent NDC.
the countries expanding the scope and coverage of their
targets collectively are responsible for a very small share of
global GHG emissions.
FIGURE 8 | GHG Coverage of GHG Targets in Initial versus Current NDCs

Complete Complete
sector coverage sector coverage
including including
NF3 (20) NF3 (23)
Complete Complete
sector coverage sector coverage
excluding excluding
NF3 (18) NF3 (14)
Incomplete gas
coverage (83) Incomplete gas
coverage (97)
No GHG
target (39) No GHG
target (23)
Not specified (7) Not specified (10)
Note: GHG = greenhouse gas; NDC = nationally determined contribution; NF3<set “3” as subscript> = nitrogen trifluoride.

Conditionality
Developing countries often commit to mitigation contribu- conditional and unconditional (up from 69), and 34 are
tions contingent on factors such as international climate now conditional only (down from 50) (Figure 9). One small
finance being provided. The new and updated NDCs reflect developed country added a new, more ambitious conditional
a move away from completely conditional NDCs; we see component to its formerly unconditional NDC. In general,
a greater share of countries making commitments that are however, we observe no clear relationship between changes
at least partly unconditional. Thirty-six NDCs are now in conditionality and changes in mitigation ambition.
completely unconditional (up from 34); 87 have a mix of
FIGURE 9 | Conditionality in Initial versus Current NDCs
Completely Completely
unconditional unconditional
(34) (36)
Conditional and
unconditional
elements (69) Conditional and
unconditional
elements (87)
Completely
conditional
(50)
Completely
conditional
(34)
Not specified (14)

Not specified (10)

40 | WRI.ORG
International market mechanisms
Under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, Parties may elect nisms, 20 said they would not, and 48 did not specify. Of the
to cooperate with other Parties to achieve mitigation goals current NDCs, 120 say it is possible they will use market
by trading emissions credits or offsets. The rules govern- mechanisms, 13 say they will not, and 34 do not specify
ing Article 6 were among the last of the Paris Agreement (Figure 10). Among the countries that initially ruled out
modalities to be finalized, emerging only at COP26 in the use of international market mechanisms in their NDCs,
2021, after most of the new and updated NDCs had been 7 countries (2 developed, 5 developing) are now open to it;
submitted. Nevertheless, in their latest NDCs, countries likewise, 21 developing countries that had not specified a
increasingly embraced the idea of using international market stance on international market mechanisms in their initial
mechanisms to achieve their NDCs. In the initial round of NDCs have now done so.
NDCs, 99 initial NDCs said they might use such mecha-
FIGURE 10 | Number of NDCs with Different Plans regarding International Market Mechanisms in Initial versus
Current NDCs
May use May use

international international
market market
mechanisms mechanisms
(99) (120)
Will not use

international
market
mechanisms Will not use
(20) international
market
mechanisms
(13)
Not specified
(48) Not specified
(34)


The countries open to using international market mecha- A full analysis of whether countries’ NDCs will put them
nisms account for 40 percent of global GHG emissions, in on a path to achieving their long-term targets is beyond the
contrast to 28 percent prior to the NDC updates (Figure 11). scope of this analysis. We can, however, examine the share
of initial and current NDCs that contain such a target. The
Long-term emissions targets number of NDCs with long-term targets grew from 17 in
the initial NDCs to 34 currently (Figure 12), and the share
The current NDCs set GHG targets almost exclusively for of global GHG emissions from countries with such a target
years up to 2030, and in the next round of NDCs, coun- grew from 15 to 56 percent (Figure 13). In contrast, 96
tries are “encouraged to communicate in 2025 a nationally Parties currently have a net-zero target or another long-term
determined contribution with an end date of 2035.” Along GHG emissions target; the majority of such Parties do not
with these midterm targets, however, the Paris Agreement mention this target in their NDCs.
calls on countries to develop “long-term, low greenhouse-gas
emission development strategies” (UNFCCC 2015), which
typically contain a target for reducing GHG emissions by
Summary and implications
2050. Because countries’ GHG emissions are highly path In terms of form and content, the mitigation elements of
dependent, achieving long-term reductions in a cost-effective the current NDCs are more robust than the initial NDCs.
manner depends profoundly on decisions made over the The number of GHG targets representing an absolute reduc-
next decade (Iyer et al. 2017), including NDC targets and tion from a base year has increased, as has the number of
how they are implemented. Making explicit this relationship, targets covering all sectors and gases. The current NDCs are
the Glasgow Climate Pact urges countries to communicate more transparent and include more unconditional elements
long-term strategies “towards just transitions to net zero and links to long-term targets relative to their predecessors.
emissions by or around midcentury, taking into account
different national circumstances” and notes “the importance The new and updated NDCs demonstrate that the Paris
of aligning nationally determined contributions with long- Agreement’s “ratchet mechanism” can deliver improved
term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies” mitigation outcomes, but they call into question whether it
(UNFCCC 2021b). can do so at the scale and pace needed. The GHG reduction
targets in the new and updated NDCs aim to reduce 2030
FIGURE 11 | Share of Global GHG Emissions Covered by Countries with Different Intents to Use International Market
Mechanisms in Initial versus Current NDCs
May use international market mechanisms Will not use international market mechanisms Not specified
Initial
NDCs
Current
NDCs
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

42 | WRI.ORG
FIGURE 12 | Number of NDCs with and without Long-Term Targets in Initial versus Current NDCs
Contains a long-term target
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Does not contain a long-term target
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs

FIGURE 13 |Share of Global GHG Emissions Covered by Countries with and without Long-Term Targets in Initial
versus Current NDCs
Contains a long-term target Does not contain a long-term target
Initial
NDCs
Current
NDCs
0 20 40 60 80 100

emissions by 5.5 GtCO2e relative to the initial NDCs. Yet at
the end of 2021, a 28 GtCO2e emissions gap still stretched
between the NDCs and scenarios that limit warming to
1.5°C (UNEP 2021b).
The trends observed here also raise the following questions

that deserve further examination in advance of the new
NDCs due in 2025:
▪ What causes countries to raise their mitigation ambition or—

conversely—to backtrack on their GHG targets? Countries
may enhance their ambition as a result of exogenous
factors (such as falling technology costs) or endogenous
ones (such as improved stakeholder consultations that
reveal support for more or more robust mitigation
interventions). Although national circumstances vary
greatly, some factors—such as technology costs—move
in tandem across countries. Yet whereas some countries
enhance ambition, others backtrack, and still others do
nothing. Backtracking has occurred on target type (for
example, moving from a GHG target to a non-GHG
target or from a base-year target to a baseline scenario
target). Countries have also backtracked on levels of
ambition (adopting targets that would result in higher
2030 emissions than under their initial NDCs). In
some cases, backtracking on ambition may result from
improved data and modeling, which portray a more
realistic assessment of a country’s plans, rather than an
intent to “do less” than before. For instance, a study of
55 developing countries found that 50 had improved
the quality of information used to develop their NDCs
(NDC Partnership 2022). Still, this does not explain, for
example, changes to target type (e.g., base-year targets
versus baseline scenario targets). It stands to reason that
improved data could result in enhanced ambition, just as
it can result in backtracking. A more detailed analysis of
which countries change their targets, how target form and
ambition relate to one another, and how both relate to
sector-specific content could help untangle this issue.
▪ Why do developing countries adopting GHG targets for the

first time choose baseline scenario targets over other options?
These targets, if anything, make monitoring progress
more complex than it would be with base-year targets.
And any type of target can reflect the same level of
ambition. One possibility is that baseline scenario targets
are seen as more flexible than absolute reductions from a
base year; if a country were to experience unanticipated
population or economic growth, it could increase its to agriculture and those related to LULUCF rather than
baseline accordingly, creating space for additional combining them under agriculture, forestry, and other land
emissions within the target. The Paris Agreement, use (AFOLU). It also includes industry, transport, and build-
however, provides for adjusting NDCs “with a view to ings as individual sectors separate from energy because they
enhancing . . . ambition” (UNFCCC 2015), but not vice are specific and significant end uses, whereas the measures
versa. Moreover, this dynamic should work both ways: included under energy largely pertain to power generation,
countries with lower-than-anticipated growth could transmission and distribution, and energy efficiency.
decrease their baselines.
In updating their NDCs, many more countries added
▪ What is driving the shift to greater unconditional sector-specific mitigation targets (GHG and non-GHG
contributions? Relative to the previous round of NDCs, targets) and other types of mitigation measures (Figure 14).12
have countries developed better data or stronger One hundred sixty-one NDCs now contain sector-specific
institutions that would allow for greater confidence in mitigation measures (up from 155 initial NDCs), and of
their ability to deliver some degree of mitigation without these, 130 contain sector-specific mitigation targets (up from
external support? Does the shift reflect the declining 120 of the initial NDCs). Energy, LULUCF, and Transport
cost of clean energy relative to fossil alternatives? Is there measures appear most often. One hundred fifty-four NDCs
greater political support for countries to invest their own include energy measures (of which 118 contain targets), 142
resources? A more detailed examination of any correlation NDCs include LULUCF measures (of which 81 contain tar-
between conditionality and specific measures in NDCs as gets), and 133 NDCs include transport measures (of which
well as interviews with NDC drafters could shed further 60 contain targets). Measures addressing agriculture, indus-
light on this trend. try, buildings, and waste are less common, but these too have
▪ Does the greater openness to international market mechanisms gained traction since the initial round of NDCs. Measures
addressing waste are included in 116 current NDCs, agricul-
reflect greater clarity regarding Article 6 modalities or other
factors? Why do a number of countries still not specify ture in 107, industry in 89, and buildings in 77.
their intent to employ international market mechanisms?
Looking specifically at targets, we also see increases in
Content analysis of countries’ positions on Article 6, as
the number of NDCs including them for each sector. The
well as interviews with those involved in developing the
steepest rise is in the waste sector, from 24 NDCs to 55.
NDCs, may reveal the answer.
The number of NDCs with targets in the agriculture and
buildings sectors more than doubled, and the number in
SECTOR-SPECIFIC the industry sector nearly doubled as well. More countries
already had targets for the energy, LULUCF, and transport
MITIGATION MEASURES sectors in the initial round of NDCs, but the number of
NDCs with targets in these sectors rose moderately as well.
Overview
Whereas energy and LULUCF targets are prevalent in
The sector-specific mitigation measures that countries
NDCs across regions, other sectors show significant variation
include in their NDCs can provide valuable insight into
(Table 1). For example, measures targeting the waste sector
how countries intend to achieve their targets. The amount of
appear in all South Asian NDCs but in under 60 percent of
detail that countries provide at the sectoral level varies sig-
NDCs from East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Cen-
nificantly; whereas some countries include no specific actions
tral Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and North
or a short list of targets or measures with little context, others
America. Agriculture and industry show similar variation,
provide more detailed information, including the costs of
and although measures focused on buildings are missing
implementation, the expected emissions reduction potential,
from NDCs across most regions, 75 percent of South Asian
conditionality, and more. Climate Watch collects these data
NDCs include them.
for its NDC Explorer and Country Profile modules. The data
on Climate Watch differ from the latest IPCC inventory
sectors because it distinguishes between measures related

FIGURE 14 | Number of NDCs Containing Measures and Targets for Each Sector
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Agriculture
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Energy
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Transport
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Waste
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Industry
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Buildings
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs

46 | WRI.ORG
TABLE 1 | Percentage of Countries in Each Region with NDCs Containing Measures for Each Sector
REGION ENERGY (%) LULUCF (%) WASTE (%) TRANSPORT (%) AGRICULTURE (%) INDUSTRY (%) BUILDINGS (%)
East Asia and 88 88 59 81 56 38 34
Pacific
Europe and 89 74 59 70 48 48 59
Central Asia
Latin America and 91 82 64 76 64 42 42
the Caribbean
Middle East and 89 67 56 78 50 61 67
North Africa
North America 100 100 50 100 100 100 50
South Asia 100 100 100 100 88 88 75
Sub-Saharan 96 94 85 81 77 63 35
Africa
Notes: LULUCF = land use, land-use change, and forestry; NDC = nationally determined contribution.
The remainder of this chapter delves into greater detail on also provide significant additional global and local cooling
the types of measures in NDCs that address emissions from services beyond their ability to sequester carbon (Lawrence
the LULUCF, power, and transport sectors, which together et al. 2022). Thus, deforestation has important consequences
account for over 70 percent of global emissions (WRI 2022). for the climate at both global and local scales beyond the
release of stored carbon.
LULUCF sector mitigation Despite the numerous climate, adaptation, and developmen-
measures in NDCs tal benefits of forests, global trends are not moving in the
right direction. Twenty-two percent of global GHG emis-
Governments are increasingly recognizing the important
sions came from AFOLU in 2019, with half of it attributed
role that LULUCF can play in their mitigation strategies.
to emissions from deforestation (IPCC 2022b). Similarly,
Forests and other natural ecosystems can pull CO2 out of the
data from Global Forest Watch show that the tropics (which
atmosphere and store it in biomass and soil. The LULUCF
are some of the most carbon-rich forests) lost 11.1 million
sector is unique because it is both a source and a sink of
hectares (Mha) of tree cover in 2021, with 3.75 Mha of loss
GHG emissions. This points to the need and opportunity for
occurring within tropical primary forests. Tropical primary
NDCs to include restoration and management measures to
forest loss in 2021 resulted in 2.5 GtCO2e of emissions,
enhance their natural sinks as well as protection measures to
equivalent to the annual fossil fuel emissions of India
decrease land-based emissions from activities that destroy or
(Weisse and Goldman 2022).
degrade forests, peatlands, and other carbon sinks and release
carbon into the atmosphere. Integrating and strengthening LULUCF sector solutions
in NDCs provide an effective opportunity for countries
In addition to their potential to mitigate climate change,
to take advantage of their natural capital. At COP26 in
forest protection, restoration, and management also help
Glasgow, more than 140 countries pledged to halt and
countries and communities adapt to climate change. For
reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030. Global
example, mangroves protect coastal lands against rising seas
political commitments such as these can be translated into
and tidal surges, and inland forests moderate temperature
domestic action plans through NDCs. This section analyzes
fluctuations and stabilize water supply (GCA 2019). Forests

how NDCs have incorporated various types of LULUCF, Setting specific targets for LULUCF—in terms of GHG
measures, followed by a brief discussion of key trends and emissions or other (non-GHG) quantitative indicators—can
steps to inform subsequent NDC submissions. signal the need for international financial support and help
the global community monitor and track progress. GHG
Overview of LULUCF sector measures targets for LULUCF can include emissions reductions (e.g.,
in the NDCs from avoided deforestation) or increased removals (e.g.,
from restoration). Encouragingly, the number of NDCs with
Just over 100 initial NDCs included measures on LULUCF, LULUCF-specific GHG targets climbed from 27 initial
but a majority of the measures lacked specificity and clarity, NDCs to 36 current NDCs. Some countries with large
particularly quantitative targets or strategies for achiev- land-use emissions, such as Colombia, quantified targets
ing them. The number of current NDCs with LULUCF associated with reducing deforestation. However, 11 coun-
measures increased to 142, including 27 NDCs that added tries that included quantified GHG targets in their initial
LULUCF measures for the first time (Figure 15). However, NDC removed them from their updated submissions. Some
there were three countries that submitted a new or updated changed their GHG target to a non-GHG target, and some
NDC but dropped measures in the LULUCF sector. Among dropped quantified LULUCF targets altogether.
current submissions, LULUCF measures varied signifi-
cantly, with approximately three-fourths of current NDCs Examples of non-GHG targets for LULUCF include
strengthening their LULUCF measures, targets, and policies, Armenia’s goal to increase forest cover to 12.9 percent of the
with the remaining one-fourth remaining stagnant or even territory by 2030. The number of NDCs with non-GHG
reducing ambition (WWF-UK 2021). targets for LULUCF rose from 56 in initial submissions
to 70 in current NDCs. Despite this progress, only 57
percent of NDCs with LULUCF measures have any type
FIGURE 15 | NDCs Containing LULUCF Targets and Measures
All measures
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
GHG targets
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Non-GHG targets
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs
Notes: GHG = greenhouse gas; LULUCF = land use, land-use change, and forestry; NDC = nationally determined contribution.
48 | WRI.ORG
of LULUCF target (GHG or non-GHG). Also lacking Seventy-eight current NDCs include measures related to
are certain types of targets. For example, very few countries protection, management, and restoration. Current NDCs
include ways to monitor progress on their land or include have also begun to reflect the need for increased protection
ways to include Indigenous peoples and local communities in measures across ecosystems. All three types of measures were
land-based mitigation activities (Box 3). equally included in initial NDCs, with 76 calling for conser-
vation of forests, peatlands, grasslands, or wetlands. Manage-
Types of LULUCF measures in NDCs ment measures appeared in 68, and restoration measures
appeared in 72. The numbers have remained relatively even
Although the commitments countries make vary, most fall
with 110 current NDCs including conservation measures,
into three categories: protect, manage, and restore. All three
99 including management, and 98 including restoration
are important, but to achieve the Paris Agreement goals,
(Figure 16). The comparatively large proportion of protection
countries must commit to protect standing ecosystems.
measures is in line with the need to achieve the mitigation
NDCs can employ a natural climate solutions hierarchy
potential of the different categories of LULUCF. In addi-
focusing on protection measures where needed, then turn-
tion to the overall increase in LULUCF measures across
ing to management measures and finally restoration when
protection, management, and restoration, the number of
prioritizing different LULUCF activities (Cook-Patton et
targets nearly doubled within each category. Current NDCs
al. 2021). These measures could still be tailored to accom-
contain 55 protection targets, 44 management targets, and 60
modate specific country needs, geographies, or ecological
restoration targets that provide concrete goals to help coun-
circumstances. To achieve 1.5°C, all three measures can
tries achieve their overall mitigation targets. However, 34
be implemented in parallel, and current NDCs show us
countries have set targets in all three subsectors, indicating
they often are.
that there is still significant room for improvement for the
majority of NDCs to increase targets in the LULUCF sector.
FIGURE 16 | Protection, Management, and Restoration Measures in NDCs
Protection
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Management
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Restoration
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Number of NDCs


PROTECTION MEASURES
Protection measures include activities that focus on con- will vary depending on the country. Countries producing
serving existing ecosystems, such as Colombia’s target of boreal timber can reduce fire risks and emissions by improv-
reducing the deforestation rate to 50,000 hectares a year in ing forest management practices. These practices include
2030. Protection activities are urgently needed because they extended rotations or reduced impact logging, which keep
offer large near-term climate mitigation opportunities with trees growing beyond their optimal harvest age and limit
high cobenefits at comparatively low cost. In fact, protec- damage to surrounding forests, respectively, both increasing
tion activities are estimated to offer up to 4,245 megatons carbon storage capacity. The United States has committed
(Mt) CO2e/year in 2030, while improved management and to investing in forest management through efforts to reduce
restoration are estimated to offer 2,884 MtCO2e/year and the scope and intensity of wildfires. Management activities in
3,153 MtCO2e/year, respectively (Cook-Patton et al. 2021; agriculture can improve soil health, enhancing productivity.
Griscom et al. 2020). REDD+,13 a specific conservation Bolivia’s NDC includes steps to increase timber and non-
activity, is one of the most often referenced NDC measures timber production by 40 percent and double food production
in the LULUCF sector. In total, 48 NDCs include REDD+ by 2030 by shifting to integrated management of forest and
measures, 24 more than in initial submissions. This increase agricultural systems. Incorporating forests in and around
is encouraging because the IPCC identified REDD+ as the agricultural lands can enhance soil quality and reduce erosion
activity with the largest potential for reducing LULUCF while also sequestering carbon.
emissions (0.4–5.8 GtCO2e/year; IPCC 2019).
RESTORATION MEASURES
MANAGEMENT MEASURES Finally, restoration incorporates a combination of afforesta-
Management measures include activities to reduce emissions tion (growing trees in areas that have not been forested
in working agricultural and forest lands. Examples include before), reforestation (growing forest in areas that have been
Nepal’s target to sustainably manage 50 percent of Tarai and recently deforested), and integration of trees into the rural
Inner Tarai forests and 25 percent of middle hills and moun- agricultural landscapes. An example of restoration is Hondu-
tain forests. Because improved management measures require ras’s target of adding 1.3 Mha of forest. Restoration activities
minimal changes in land use, they can be relatively cost- have the potential to offer significant climate mitigation but
effective and implemented alongside commodity production. are third in the hierarchy because failure to first protect land
As with all measures, the specific management activities releases large amounts of carbon, which restoration activities
BOX 3 | Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities Are Key to Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry
Indigenous peoples and other local communities (IPLC) are held Indigenous land are 50 percent lower than in areas
essential stewards of the world’s forests. Research shows that outside of Indigenous territories.b Despite this research, only
IPLC have effectively and sustainably managed their land for 30 nationally determined contributions (NDCs; compared to
generations despite the lack of secure tenure.a Although half 14 in first submissions) explicitly reference IPLC in relation to
of all global land is the community land of IPLC, only 10 per- the development and implementation of land use, land-use
cent of the world’s land is legally recognized as belonging to change, and forestry in their NDCs.c Though it is encouraging
them. Empowering Indigenous peoples to protect their land that the number of countries referencing IPLC doubled, it will
is a powerful strategy to conserve forests and the carbon and be important to continue this progress and further integrate
cultural and biological diversity they contain. Recent research IPLC into future NDCs.
from the Amazon shows that deforestation rates on securely
Sources: a. Viet 2021; b. WRI and Climate Focus 2022; c. WWF-UK 2021.
50 | WRI.ORG
cannot recover in the relevant time period (Cook-Patton et
al. 2021). With the 2020s recognized as the UN Decade on
Ecosystem Restoration, many countries have capitalized on
preexisting commitments, such as the 2011 Bonn Challenge,
a global goal to restore 350 Mha by 2030. However, a discon-
nect persists between what some countries have pledged and
what they have included in their NDCs, particularly when
it comes to quantifying targets. Only 33 Bonn Challenge
countries (out of 61) have quantitative restoration targets in
current NDCs (Duraisami et al. 2022; IUCN 2020).

LULUCF sector measures are now included in 142 NDCs.
This represents significant progress in utilizing nature to
mitigate climate change while also taking advantage of
adaptation and development cobenefits. However, just
over half of those NDCs (57 percent) have any LULUCF-
specific targets and even fewer (25 percent) have LULUCF-
specific GHG targets.
Measures related to the protection, management, and

restoration of land have all increased since initial NDCs
and the number of targets within each subsector nearly
doubled. Although this progress is encouraging, the targets
are concentrated within a minority of NDCs, primarily ones
that make up a small fraction of global emissions.
Few NDCs incorporate financial needs, land rights, and

technology in the LULUCF sector. Countries should
include detailed information on the amount of financial
support needed to implement their NDCs. Policies on the
rights of Indigenous peoples and local communities should
be further developed and codified, and spatial monitoring
technologies should be better incorporated.
Power sector mitigation

measures in NDCs
Limiting warming to 1.5°C will have profound implications
for both how and how much power will need to be generated. efficient. Therefore, decarbonizing electricity generation and
Scenarios consistent with achieving the 1.5°C goal preclude promoting conservation must proceed in tandem and are
the construction of new fossil fuel infrastructure (IPCC essential near-term strategies to limit warming. The power
2022b). By 2050, almost all (97–99 percent) global electricity sector transition will also require infrastructure resilient to
will need to be sourced from low- or zero-carbon sources. more frequent extreme weather events (IPCC 2022a). This
Power demand will also grow as end uses shift to electricity section refers to the power sector and not the entire energy
and countries expand their economies. At the same time, sector, which includes end-use sectors such as transport,
electricity end use could potentially become much more buildings, and industry.

Overview of power sector measures Types of power sector measures in NDCs
in NDCs RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION MEASURES
IN NDCS
Of the current NDCs, 150 contain measures addressing the
power sector, up from 141 of the initial NDCs (Figure 17). Renewable power generation measures were a popular
The number of NDCs containing GHG targets specific element of initial NDCs (129 of which contained such
to the power sector increased from 24 to 41, and NDCs measures) and remain so in the current NDCs (136 of which
containing non-GHG targets increased from 93 to 103. contain such measures; Figure 18). Of the NDCs contain-
ing renewable power generation measures, 14 belong to
Of the 150 NDCs with power sector measures, 16 belong to G20 countries and 8 belong to developed countries. Solar
Group of Twenty (G20) countries and 11 belong to devel- generation measures are the most common type of renewable
oped countries. Of the 41 NDCs with power sector GHG measure, appearing in 80 current NDCs, followed by hydro-
targets, none belongs to a G20 country, and only 1 (Nor- power (51) and wind (40). Waste-to-energy (in 25 current
way’s) belongs to a developed country. Of the 101 NDCs NDCs), geothermal (in 9 current NDCs), and ocean-based
with power sector non-GHG targets, 9 belong to G20 (in 3 current NDCs) measures are rarer.
countries and 5 to developed countries.
FOSSIL FUEL–BASED MEASURES IN NDCS
The following sections take a closer look into NDC measures
related to power generation, including those pertaining to Relative to renewable energy, few NDCs (51, up from 41
renewable energy, fossil fuels, and power sector efficiency. initial NDCs) contain measures relating to fossil fuel–based
power generation (Figure 19). These measures encompass a
wide variety of interventions, some of which would lead to
FIGURE 17 | Number of NDCs Containing Targets and Other Measures Addressing the Power Sector
All measures
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
GHG targets
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Non-GHG targets
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Number of NDCs
Note: GHG = greenhouse gas; NDC = nationally determined contribution.

52 | WRI.ORG
FIGURE 18 | Number of NDCs with Different Types of Renewable Power Generation Measures
Any renewable measure
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Geothermal
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Hydropower
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Ocean
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Solar
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Waste-to-energy
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Wind
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs


FIGURE 19 | Number of NDCs with Measures Related to Fossil Fuel–Based Power Generation
Any fossil fuel measure
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Switching from fossil to clean fuel
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Switching from one fossil fuel to another
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Improving efficiency of existing fossil fuels
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
New fossil infrastructure
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Phaseout and phasedown measures
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs

54 | WRI.ORG
absolute reductions in GHG emissions (e.g., replacing fossil All subcategories of fossil-based generation measures, except
fuels with zero-carbon fuels) and others that may lead to for improving the efficiency of existing fossil infrastruc-
reductions relative to a hypothetical baseline while increasing ture, have experienced modest increases from the initial to
absolute emissions (e.g., constructing a new gas-fired plant the current NDCs.
rather than a new coal-fired plant). NDCs typically do not
contain sufficient information to quantify the impact of their In its initial NDC, China said it would improve the
measures on emissions. For purposes of this analysis, fossil efficiency of thermal power plants. Its updated NDC, in
fuel–based generation measures are categorized as follows: contrast, pledges to curb coal-powered projects, strictly limit
increases in coal consumption over the 14th Five-Year Plan
▪ Fossil phaseout measures explicitly refer to phasing out period, and to phase it down in the 15th Five-Year Plan
period. Israel aims to phase out coal-fired power generation
or phasing down a fossil fuel or related technology—or
contain quantified targets and/or plans to reduce or by 2026, and South Korea seeks to dramatically phase down
eliminate the use of a fossil fuel or related technology— coal-fired power generation. A few additional develop-
by a certain date. ing countries are also aiming to phase out the use of coal;
▪ Measures
for example, Mauritius plans to phase out the use of coal
promoting fuel switching from fossil to completely by 2030, and Pakistan mentions phasing out coal
clean fuels refer to replacing fossil fuels or fossil-based conditionally based on the availability of finance.
infrastructure with renewable or zero-carbon counterparts.
▪ Measures that improve efficiency of existing fossil

Of the 22 NDCs containing measures to switch from one
fossil fuel to another and/or to build new fossil infrastruc-
infrastructure refer to retrofitting or installing new,
ture, all belong to developing countries; 10 belong to least
more efficient technology associated with fossil-
developed countries (LDCs) and/or small island developing
based generation.
states (SIDS), and 3 belong to G20 countries. Japan’s initial
▪ Measures promoting fuel switching from one fossil NDC contained a reference to pursuing higher-efficiency
fuel to another refer to replacing existing fossil-based thermal power generation, but its updated NDC does not
fuel or infrastructure with another fossil-based fuel or contain this reference. The representation of LDCs and
infrastructure, such as switching from coal to gas. SIDS in these categories points to the potential need for
▪ Measures that propose new fossil infrastructure refer to stronger international support for transitioning to clean
power generation.
constructing new fossil-based infrastructure, including
natural gas plants and ultra-supercritical coal plants.

POWER SUPPLY EFFICIENCY MEASURES IN NDCS
These measures improve power supply-side efficiency by fuel subsidies,” suggests that countries will need to revisit
introducing new, more efficient technologies, transmission, this aspect of their NDCs (UNFCCC 2021b). Likewise,
and infrastructure, building cogeneration plants, and cut- although a few countries do focus on minimizing grid losses
ting losses throughout the power grid.14 Overall, NDCs and improving efficiency while modernizing grids, these
with power supply-side efficiency measures increased from measures may not be sufficient to keep up with the acceler-
43 to 63 from the initial to the current NDCs (Figure ated installation of variable renewable energy. Such efforts
20). Of these, 5 belong to developed countries and 10 to are needed to structure the grid in ways that support integra-
G20 countries. tion of renewable energy (Chakrabarty et al. 2019).
Summary and implications Transport sector mitigation

The number of NDCs that specifically target the power measures in NDCs
sector has very marginally increased across the board. It
Transport accounts for approximately 16.9 percent of
is 6 percent higher than in the first round. The number of
global GHG emissions (8.3 GtCO2e emissions in 2018;
GHG and non-GHG targets pertaining to the power sector
WRI 2022) and is the fastest-growing source of emissions
is also up, though no G20 country has yet adopted GHG
after industry (Ge et al. 2020). The demand for the global
targets for the sector.
transportation of goods and people is surging as economic
NDCs remained focused on renewable energy generation. development, urbanization, and population growth fuel the
Although solar, hydropower, and wind generation are the demand for more cars, travel, and shipping. Under busi-
most prevalent renewable generation technologies, measures ness as usual, these trends are expected to continue, with
to promote waste-to-energy technologies shot up (more than passenger transport rising between 90 and 160 percent and
100 percent) following the update. freight transport growing between 100 and 230 percent by
2030 (ITF 2017). Following this trend to 2050, emissions
NDCs lack focus on limiting fossil fuel–based power from the transport sector are estimated to reach a level three
generation and on power generation efficiency. The fossil to six times higher than in scenarios consistent with the
fuel–based interventions are up 24 percent from the initial Paris Agreement.
round of NDCs. Yet not all of these measures would curb
emissions from the sector, and some may increase or lock To meet global climate goals, there is an urgent need to
in future emissions. The Glasgow Climate Pact, which calls rapidly lower passenger transport emissions. Currently, road
on countries to accelerate efforts “towards the phasedown transport is responsible for 75 percent of CO2 emissions
of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil from the transport sector, and 87 percent of these are from
FIGURE 20 | Number of NDCs with Measures That Address Power Supply Efficiency
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Number of NDCs

56 | WRI.ORG
light-duty vehicles and trucks (SLOCAT 2021a). In a previ- The most cost-effective means of cutting transport emis-
ous working paper, WRI provided guidance for updating sions is to avoid the need for motorized travel. This can be
NDCs in the transport sector (Fransen, Welle, et al. 2019). achieved by planning cities to bring opportunities closer to
These included recommendations to fill previous gaps in residents and by encouraging more efficient, less carbon-
existing NDCs by accelerating electrification; amplifying intensive modes of movement, such as public transit, walk-
“avoid” and “shift” solutions such as public transport, walking ing, and cycling.
and cycling; and addressing freight emissions.
Overview of transport sector measures
The “avoid-shift-improve” approach tackles the transport
challenge holistically by first avoiding unnecessary vehicle in NDCs
travel through strategic planning, shifting to more efficient The initial NDCs addressed transport in a limited manner,
modes when possible, and improving vehicle and fuel often with general language that does not set a quantitative
efficiency. Although technological solutions such as electric target for actions to be taken in the following decade. In the
and fuel-cell vehicles have captured the attention of investors first round, 107 of 169 NDCs included transport sector-
and policymakers alike, achieving full decarbonization of the specific mitigation measures, ranging from general plans
transport sector cannot be accomplished solely by switching to improve public transport to specific emissions reduction
to clean fuels. Without a fundamental shift in transportation goals through detailed, quantifiable actions. The second
demand, there will be 2 billion cars on the roads by 2050, round of revisions adds an additional 17 NDCs for a total of
coupled with a 60 percent increase in transport emissions 124 current NDCs with references to transport mitigation
(Dasgupta and Puliti 2022). measures (Figure 21).
FIGURE 21 | Number of NDCs That Include Transport Mitigation Measures
All measures
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
GHG targets
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Non-GHG targets
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Number of NDCs
Note: GHG = greenhouse gas; NDC = nationally determined contribution.

Source: Authors’ analysis based on GIZ and SLOCAT (2022).

A total of 49 initial NDCs included quantitative targets 15 in the initial NDCs did so, including 2 from developed
(including both GHG and non-GHG targets), relating to countries, and 26 current NDCs did so, including 8 from
alternative fuels, electrification, infrastructure improvement, developed countries. Many NDCs with emissions targets are
expansion of public transit, and more. Of these 49 NDCs, those of African countries, which have relatively low emis-
8 are from developed countries and 41 are from develop- sions from transport, whereas the highest emitters, such as
ing countries. With current NDCs, the number rises to 61 the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union
(14 developed and 47 developing, including 7 countries fail to set specific targets for the sector. Significantly more
that did not update their NDC document). Few NDCs set NDCs set non-GHG targets than emissions targets in both
emissions reduction targets for the transport sector: only rounds of NDCs.
FIGURE 22 | Number of NDCs Containing Different Types of Transport Measures
Electrification and e-mobility
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Public transit
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Active transport
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Freight
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Shipping
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Aviation
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Number of NDCs

Source: Authors’ analysis based on GIZ and SLOCAT (2022).
58 | WRI.ORG
Types of transport mitigation measures
in NDCs
The remainder of this chapter explores the specific private vehicles (Cazzola and Crist 2020). A recent scenario
types of transport measures that have been included in analysis by the Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative
NDCs (Figure 22). finds that for the world to be on a pathway to 1.5°C, cities
may need to double public transport capacity by 2030
ELECTRIFICATION MEASURES IN NDCS (Teske et al. 2021). On a city level, policies such as transport
In contrast to the initial NDCs, which emphasized the need demand management (TDM) can reduce emissions more
to invest in public transit, the focus of the new and updated efficiently and cost-effectively than electrification alone.
NDCs has shifted to e-mobility. TDM policies, such as congestion pricing, license plate
restrictions, and low-emissions zones can rapidly reduce
E-mobility offers many opportunities to reduce emissions, vehicle travel in urban areas, but transportation alternatives
local air pollution, and urban noise. Battery electric vehicles such as bike lanes and convenient public transit must be in
are already becoming popular in a few regions—mainly place to meet travel demands.
China, Europe, and the United States—and will rapidly
become more affordable with technological advancements. PUBLIC TRANSPORT MEASURES IN NDCS
As of 2021, electric vehicles (EVs) made up less than 1 Although the attention that NDCs pay to public transit
percent of the global stock—or about 16.5 million light-duty remains high, it has plateaued compared to the scope and
vehicles—but are expected to exceed 130 million by 2030 ambition of targets in other subsectors. Sixty-three initial
(IEA 2021). The push for EVs is evident from multiple NDCs had measures relating to public transit improvements
stakeholders, as some manufacturers and policymakers in and investments (including 13 from developed and 50 from
the European Union have announced plans to phase out the developing countries). That number edged up only to 65
sale of combustion engine cars by 2035 (European Parlia- (including 14 from developed and 51 from developing coun-
ment 2022; Motavalli 2021). NDCs reflect this trend as tries) in the current NDCs. These are net figures; 24 NDCs
well, though the large majority refer to e-mobility in general (including 5 from developed countries) that had included
terms; and among measures that explicitly mention transport public transit in their initial NDC left it out of their new
mode, the electrification of buses is the most frequently cited, or updated NDC.
followed by cars, two and three wheelers, and rail.
But merely replacing internal combustion engine vehicles

with battery-powered ones will not achieve the full emis-
sions reduction potential unless they are coupled with a But merely replacing
clean power grid. The overhaul of vehicle fleets will also take
time, as the average age of cars on roads is 12.1 years in the internal combustion
United States (Carlier 2021) and 11.5 years in the European
Union (Carlier 2022). Buses average 9–11 years. Even if all
engine vehicles with
new vehicles sales today were electric, it would take well over battery-powered ones
a decade for EVs to supplant cars, trucks, and buses with
internal combustion engines. will not achieve the full
Because of this slow turnover, the level of electrification emissions reduction
required to hold the temperature increase to 1.5°C cannot potential unless they are
be reached soon enough, unless it is paired with actions that
reduce the number of vehicle miles traveled. Public transit coupled with a clean
offers a way to do this. Even with current energy sources and
electricity grid emissions, electric buses and trains release
power grid
about a third of emissions (per passenger kilometer) as

Chile provides a good example of an NDC matched with make active transport safer and easier, cities can improve the
national policy and implementation, aiming to electrify 100 air quality, prevent accidents, alleviate traffic and congestion,
percent of its public transport buses by 2040. This policy and improve health while avoiding unnecessary motorized
directs the Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications trips. Eleven initial NDCs included active mobility measures,
to provide financing to procure electric buses and work with and that number nearly tripled to 31 NDCs in the current
local transport agencies, other ministries, and private partners round. Only four NDCs included active mobility measures
to get them on the road (World Bank 2020). in both their initial and new or updated submissions.
ACTIVE MOBILITY MEASURES IN NDCS FREIGHT, SHIPPING, AND AVIATION MEASURES

IN NDCS
Active mobility is one solution that has great potential to
reduce emissions in urban areas. It features far more promi- Although urban transport emissions reduction targets in
nently in the current NDCs than in the initial NDCs. About NDCs have become more specific and focused, gaps remain,
25–50 percent of trips taken in cities are under five kilo- including strategies for tackling harder-to-abate emissions
meters. By improving walking and cycling infrastructure to from road freight, shipping, and aviation. Road freight repre-
sents 40 percent of transport emissions, and freight emissions projects range from electrifying port machinery and vehicles,
are expected to more than triple by 2050 (SLOCAT 2021a). to expanding hydrogen supply, to increasing efficiency, and
This can be addressed by “shift” and “improve” measures such upgrading port functions in line with decarbonization.
as transitioning from road to rail transport or improving the
Aviation is one of the most difficult sectors to abate due to
fuel efficiency of trucks through optimized routes. Freight
rising passenger and freight demand as well as the difficulty
transport is more difficult to electrify than light-duty vehicles
of fuel shifting. The weight of batteries is a huge barrier
because of longer trips, heavier weight, and the need for
to electrification. Only seven NDCs mention aviation in
rapid refueling. Only 13 initial NDCs included road freight
either the initial or current of submissions, and all use vague
mitigation measures, and 22 current NDCs mention it.
language relating to improving aircraft technology, fuel
Maritime shipping and other water transport (ferries, fishing
efficiency, or expanding aviation capacity. Shipping and
boats) are targeted in even fewer measures, with 6 NDCs
aviation are unique modes of transport because their trips
mentioning lower carbon fuels or green port projects in their
frequently cross borders and thus require climate actions
initial submission and 12 in current submissions. Green port
to go beyond national policies and to be addressed glob-
ally. National governments have an opportunity to connect
NDCs with the International Maritime Organization and
International Civil Aviation Organization to confront these
harder-to-abate sectors.

Current NDCs have more transport sector targets and
place more emphasis on electrification as a way to reach
them. The number of GHG and non-GHG targets rose
sharply from the initial to the current NDCs. However, most
transport measures in NDCs lack specificity, accountability,
quantitative targets, and ways to track progress. Stronger,
more specific targets and plans to implement them will
be needed. Electrification has gained significant attention
between first and second NDC submissions, signaling a
shift in global attitudes, but electrification alone will not be
enough to meet climate goals. Further action is needed to
reduce the number of vehicle miles traveled, which can be
achieved by reducing transport demand, shifting from private
vehicles to public transit, and prioritizing active mobility
where possible.
All nations can do more to strengthen transport measures

in NDCs. Developed countries have significant scope to
reduce motorized transport demand and emissions, whereas
developing countries that try to halt the growth of the
transport sector might also restrict access to jobs and other
pathways out of poverty. These countries must instead find
ways to decouple growth from transport emissions enough to
stabilize and ultimately reduce them. Encouraging develop-
ment that is more compact, with accessible public transit and
active mobility options, and avoiding private vehicle–ori-
ented development altogether is the optimal way forward.

BOX 4 | NDCs and the Global Methane Pledge
The Global Methane Pledge was launched in 2021 as a tem impacts, including a 15 percent reduction in annual crop
partnership between the United States, European Union, and yields; and a reduction in the amount of carbon plants can
other Parties to the Paris Agreement. Participants joining the potentially sequester.d
pledge agree to take voluntary actions to contribute to a col-
Since the Global Methane Pledge was launched at the 26th
lective effort to reduce global methane emissions by at least
Conference of the Parties, 119 countries have endorsed it.
30 percent below 2020 levels by 2030. The specific measures
(This analysis includes two countries—Kosovo and Libya—
targeted by the pledge focus largely on fossil fuel opera-
that have signed on to the Global Methane Pledge but do not
tions, which account for 36 percent of emissions, but there
have NDCs.) These signatories represent nearly 75 percent
are additional pathways for reducing methane emissions
of the global gross domestic product and cover 50 percent
from agriculture, the largest single source of methane at 42
of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions.e This box reviews
percent, and waste, the third-largest source at 18 percent.a
the CH4-related measures in the latest NDCs submitted by
Methane (CH4) is a much more potent pollutant than carbon signatories and nonsignatories of the pledge, including incor-
dioxide (CO2). Over a 100-year time scale, CH4 is 28 times porating CH4 into a top-line greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction
more potent than CO2, but averaged over the first 20 years, target, setting a CH4-specific emissions reduction target, and
it is 86 times more potent than CO2.b Around 30 percent identifying policies and measures that are likely to reduce
of recent warming experienced to date comes from CH4. CH4 emissions (see Appendix A for details).
Looking ahead, cutting CH4 emissions by 45 percent can
Ninety-six of the 119 pledge signatories included CH4 within
avoid 0.3°C of warming by 2040.c Reducing CH4 emissions
the scope of a top-line GHG reduction target in their NDCs,
also impedes the formation of other secondary gases, such
a somewhat higher share than nonsignatories (Figure B4.1).
as tropospheric ozone, which can have devastating public
In a much smaller number of NDCs, countries set emissions
health impacts, such as respiratory and other illnesses that
targets specifically to reduce CH4—15 from signatories and 5
cause over 1 million deaths per year; agricultural and ecosys-
from nonsignatories.
FIGURE B4.1 | Percentage of Global Methane Pledge Signatories and Nonsignatories with a Top-Line, NDC GHG Reduction Target
That Covers CH4, with a CH4 -Specific Target, and with CH4 -Relevant Policies in Their NDCs
Methane covered by economy-wide target Methane not covered by economy-wide target
GMP Signatories
GMP Non-signatories
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Methane-specific target No methane-specific target
GMP Signatories
GMP Non-signatories
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
62 | WRI.ORG
BOX 4 | NDCs and the Global Methane Pledge (Cont.)
Methane-specific policies No methane-specific policies
GMP Signatories
GMP Non-signatories
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Note: GMP = Global Methane Pledge.

Source: Authors’ analysis based on WRI (2022) and CCAC (2022).
Seventy-six signatories included measures in their NDCs that related to natural gas, waste-to-energy projects, and coal
are likely to reduce CH4 emissions, a lower share than for mine CH4), and the waste sector (including measures related
nonsignatories. These included measures in the agriculture to wastewater, landfills, and general waste reduction strate-
sector (such as those related to livestock, enteric fermenta- gies; Figure B4.2).
tion, or rice cultivation), the energy sector (such as those
FIGURE B4.2 | Number of GMP Signatories with NDCs Containing CH4 -Specific Policies in the Agriculture, Energy, and Waste Sectors
Agriculture
Energy
Waste
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Number of NDCs
Notes: GMP = global methane pledge; NDC = nationally determined contribution.

The degree to which implementing the Global Methane and waste sectors suggests significant room for improve-
Pledge will drive CH4 reductions beyond those already ment among signatories in spelling out how specifically they
included in NDCs is an open question. Most signatories will contribute to the Global Methane Pledge. Thus, in areas
already include CH4 in their top-line GHG targets but do not where ambitious CH4 reductions are not yet factored into
delineate the fraction of those targets that will be achieved by countries’ top-line NDC targets, there may also be room to
reducing CH4. On the other hand, the paucity of CH4-specific strengthen overall NDC mitigation ambition in a way that
targets and CH4-specific policies in the agriculture, energy, coincides with this new globally agreed commitment.
Sources: a. CCAC n.d.; b. IPCC 2021; c. CCAC 2022; d. CCAC n.d.; e. Global Methane Pledge n.d.

BOX 5 | NDCs and a Just Transition
As Parties shift towards implementation of their climate impacts of response measures.b This framework includes the
pledges, recognition of the socioeconomic impacts of International Labour Organization’s decent work agenda and
measures taken to respond to climate change are becoming negotiating guidelines for a just transition based on social
more evident. A just transition is one way to start addressing dialogue between workers, employers, and government and
these impacts. on engagement with other stakeholders, such as communi-
ties and civil society organizations.c In 2018, the Solidarity
There is no one definition of just transition. Some interpreta-
and Just Transition Silesia Declaration emerged from the
tions have focused on support for workers and communities
24th Conference of the Parties (COP24), and during the most
whose livelihoods will be compromised as societies shift
recent COP26 in Glasgow, 14 countries and the European
away from fossil fuels. Broader understandings apply ideas
Commission pledged support for six just transition pillars,
of justice and equity across a broader set of concerns related
including applying these principles to domestic plans.d
to climate action that range beyond the energy sector.a Just
transition often refers both to minimizing the negative effects As the concept of just transition has increasingly permeated
of the low-carbon transition and ensuring that its benefits rhetoric and declarations within the UNFCCC and recent
and opportunities are equitably shared. COPs, so has it been increasingly addressed in nationally
determined contributions (NDCs). Thirty-two NDCs (cover-
Both the preamble to the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow
ing 58 countries, including 27 EU Member States through
Climate Pact contain language regarding just transition,
the European Union’s NDC) have included just transition.
and a technical paper with framework defining the concept,
The analysis for this report only captures explicit use of the
process, and outcomes for a just transition emerged from
term and thus does not include NDCs that mention terms
the work program and forum hosted by the United Nations
or policies that would be consistent with the concept of just
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on the
transition.
FIGURE B5.1 | The First Year in Which Countries Mentioned “Just Transition” in Their NDCs
No mention
2021
2020
2015
Sources: UNFCCC n.d.; WRI 2022.
64 | WRI.ORG
BOX 5 | NDCs and a Just Transition (Cont.)
The number of NDCs that explicitly include the term just Further research could address the following questions
transition has jumped since 2015 (Figure B5.1). South Africa related to incorporating a just transition into NDCs:
was the only party to include the term in its previous 2015
intended nationally determined contribution (INDC). In ▪ What leads countries to include just transition in their
NDC? Is the impetus domestic or international? What is
2020, 10 NDCs included references to just transition, and
the role of stakeholder engagement?
in 2021, 22 did, bringing the total to 16 percent of all NDCs.
The UNFCCC’s most recent synthesis report on NDCs also ▪ How does the treatment of just transition within NDCs
recognizes this trend, stating that “more Parties provided intersect with national strategies, plans, and policies?
information on their consideration of social and economic
consequences of response measures, and of just transition
▪ Does the inclusion of just transition in NDCs lead
to related action in other arenas (other international
and/or economic diversification.”e fora, national policies, bottom-up pressure or calls for
accountability from civil society pushing for further
The NDCs treat just transition with varying depth. Some
action, etc.)?
briefly mention the concept. For example, Mauritius notes it
is taking into account “a just transition of the workforce” in ▪ Over time, the analysis of NDCs can look into more
reference to impacts of mitigation measures.f Iceland notes descriptive aspects, such as the following:
that “integration of just transition and gender equality is
fundamental.”g Other Parties, such as South Africa and Anti-
▪ Will more Parties incorporate just transition into
their NDCs?
gua and Barbuda, have more fully incorporated the concept,
with paragraphs or dedicated sections on a just transition.h ▪ Will future NDCs delve deeper into the concept, or will
South Africa’s initial INDC mentioned the term only 3 times, its inclusion be fairly limited?
whereas its updated first NDC mentions it 19 times, outlines ▪ Will language remain the same or will some Parties
processes to finalize a just transition plan, and notes the begin using other terms, such as fair and equitable
establishment of the Presidential Climate Commission to transition?
oversee just transition efforts.i
▪ Will Parties interpret the term just transition narrowly
or broadly? Will just transition be expanded into other
sectors outside of energy, such as land use or oceans?
Notes: In alphabetical order, this is the full list of the 32 Parties that have explicitly included the term just transition in their NDCs: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina,
Belize, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, the European Union, Iceland, Indonesia, Kenya, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania,
Mauritius, Montenegro, Namibia, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Paraguay, the Philippines, South Africa, South Korea, Suriname, Ukraine, United
Kingdom, and Zimbabwe.
Sources: a. Pinker 2020; b. UNFCCC 2015, 2020; c. ILO 2015; d. COP24 Presidency 2018; COP26 Presidency 2021; e. UNFCCC 2021c; f. Government of Mauritius 2021;
g. Government of Iceland 2021; h. Government of South Africa 2021; Government of Antigua and Barbuda 2021; i. Government of South Africa 2015, 2021.

CHAPTER 4
Adaptation
Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse
impacts of climate change is a key objective of
the Paris Agreement and remains a crucial priority
for vulnerable countries and communities across
the globe. But as climate change impacts around
the world intensify, how are Parties choosing to
include adaptation and resilience in their NDCs?
This chapter explores the elements of adaptation
included in the current round of NDCs and how
these have changed since the initial round, with
the aim to improve understanding of the state of
adaptation in the NDCs.

NDCs offer countries the opportunity to voluntarily com- pertains almost exclusively to developing Parties. This find-
municate adaptation needs and priorities in addition to ing reflects a divide between Parties regarding the role of
their mitigation targets and measures. There are multiple adaptation in the NDCs: developed countries, which have
reasons why countries may choose to include information historically high emissions, frame the NDC as a mitigation-
on adaptation and resilience in their NDCs. First, NDC oriented document focused on emissions reduction com-
adaptation components may serve as a country’s adaptation mitments. Conversely, for many developing countries, many
communication. An adaptation communication is a separate of which contribute minimally to global emissions but face
but related instrument under the Paris Agreement that is disproportionate threats from climate change impacts, adap-
designed to convey “priorities, implementation and support tation is the key climate priority of the NDC document.
needs, plans and actions, without creating any additional
The number of countries including adaptation components
burden for developing country Parties” (UNFCCC 2015).
has remained relatively stable between submission rounds,
Additionally, NDC adaptation components may serve to
with 144 current NDCs including adaptation compared
elevate the outputs of more comprehensive processes that
to 143 in the initial NDCs. Although these figures sug-
drive adaptation planning, such as the NAP process. NDCs
gest a static set of countries prioritizing adaptation, this is
are highly political public-facing documents, and includ-
not necessarily the case. Many countries added adaptation
ing adaptation components gives countries the opportunity
elements for the first time in their new and updated NDCs,
to promote international visibility and attract funding for
including Andorra, Australia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ice-
national adaptation planning (Dixit and O’Connor 2022).
land, Montenegro, and North Macedonia (UNFCCC n.d.).
Of the current NDCs, 144 include an adaptation compo- This suggests that European countries outside the European
nent. Despite being voluntary components in the NDCs, a Union may increasingly see adaptation as an important ele-
large majority (86 percent) of Parties to the Paris Agreement ment in the NDCs. Conversely, countries that had adapta-
have chosen to include them in their current NDC submis- tion components in their initial submissions and removed
sions, reflecting a broad desire to elevate adaptation alongside them in their updated submissions include Belarus, Brazil,
mitigation. However, disaggregating this statistic between Grenada, the Marshall Islands, Nauru, and Ukraine. Some of
developed and developing Parties to the UNFCCC suggests these countries, including Brazil, Grenada, and the Marshall
less consensus. Whereas most (139) developing country Islands, have communicated additional adaptation informa-
NDCs have included adaptation in their current NDCs, the tion via NAPs and adaptation communications (UNFCCC
majority (11) of developed country NDCs—including the 2022a, 2022b).
European Union and the United States—have not done so.
Including adaptation elements in NDCs is voluntary, so
Developed countries account for just 16 out of 167 current
there is little concrete guidance—and wide variation—in
NDCs, and only 5 of these 16 NDCs include adaptation
how these elements are included. Understanding the types
components, so the adaptation NDC analysis in this report
of information countries choose to prioritize in their current
NDC adaptation components, and how this has changed
since the initial submissions, is an important step for increas-
ing adaptation ambition in future rounds of NDC updates.
This section aims to address challenges in assessing adapta-

tion ambition in the NDCs by presenting updated findings
using a framework first developed by Dixit et al. (2022).15
Through nine qualitative assessment criteria, this framework
enabled authors to unpack the adaptation components of
current NDCs and understand how they have changed com-
pared to the initial NDC submissions. By increasing under-
standing of improvements and gaps in the new and updated
NDC adaptation components, the framework contributes
to a growing body of guidance on NDC and adaptation
enhancement (Bapna et al. 2019; Fransen, Sato, et al. 2019;
UNFCCC 2015). The nine categories for assessing increased
ELEMENTS OF
adaptation ambition in the NDCs are as follows: ADAPTATION PLANNING
1. Country ownership NDC development and
2. Alignment with planning exercises and other adaptation adaptation planning processes
plans and policies
Of the current NDCs, 128 include a description of the NDC
3. Use of latest impact, risk, and vulnerability information development process.17 Although this type of descriptive
information is common in NDCs, the level of detail varies.
4. Focus on critical adaptation systems as identified in the
Some countries include extensive descriptions of stakehold-
Global Commission on Adaptation’s Adapt Now report
ers consulted during the development process, whereas
(Bapna et al. 2019)
others simply name the lead institution responsible for NDC
5. Presence of additional information for priority actions, development. Figure 23 shows the inclusion of planning
such as baselines, time frames, and costs descriptions in the NDCs.
6. Clarity about monitoring and evaluation approaches
Of the 144 current NDCs that include an adaptation com-
7. Evidence of transformative adaptation in the 16
ponent, 90 describe adaptation planning. Adaptation plan-
priority actions ning descriptions in NDCs often include descriptions of the
lead agency responsible for adaptation planning (if different
8. Commitments to social inclusion, gender, and equity
from mitigation), the stakeholders consulted, and sometimes
9. References to losses and damages from climate change information on the NAP process. However, significantly
more (19) current NDCs describe the adaptation planning
FIGURE 23 | Description of NDC Development Process and Adaptation Planning
Description of planning process of NDC development

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Description of planning process for adaptation planning

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Description of coordination process for adaptation planning

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs


process than in the initial round of submissions. Information holder engagement includes a broad and socially inclusive
on the adaptation coordination process—which may include consultation process, for instance (UNFCCC n.d.). Addi-
descriptions of the coordinating institution responsible for tionally, many new and updated NDCs received approval
implementation as well as coordination across sectors and from a cabinet or other high-level political body. Collectively,
levels of government—saw an even greater increase, with 29 these factors suggest a greater government ownership than in
more NDCs including this information in their new and the initial NDCs.
updated submissions. Papua New Guinea exemplifies these
improved descriptions of adaptation planning. Whereas the Alignment with other plans
country’s initial NDC included only cursory institutional
information, its updated NDC provided robust descriptions and policies
of its NAP process, key adaptation stakeholders, and consul- Compared to the initial NDCs, the current NDCs suggest
tation methodology (UNFCCC n.d.). greater alignment with existing adaptation plans and policies.
Current NDCs frequently reference NAPs, national climate
The current NDCs suggest more robust stakeholder
change policies, and sectoral plans, and they increasingly
engagement and greater country ownership than the initial
connect their NDCs with national development processes
submissions. Significantly more current NDCs claim to
(Figure 24). For example, Rwanda prioritized the strate-
have conducted stakeholder engagement, particularly with
gic integration of adaptation and economic development
government agencies and the public, compared to the initial
policy during its updated NDC development process, with
submissions (Dixit et al. 2022). Honduras’s improved stake-
FIGURE 24 | References to Other National Plans and International Frameworks
Identifies coordination with other development or climate change processes

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Identifies adaptation plans and policies at national/sectoral level

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Identifies adaptation plans and policies at subnational level

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Includes references to other international frameworks and/or conventions

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs

70 | WRI.ORG
key national strategies such as its Vision 2050 and Green strategies for adaptation, development, and long-term plan-
Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy reflecting this ning. Fiji’s updated NDC builds on this plan by elevating
integration and informing NDC development (Dixit and key actions from the NAP to the international level, raising
O’Connor 2022). These linkages suggest that Parties are visibility and support for the country’s adaptation priorities.
increasingly prioritizing synergies between adaptation policy For countries at different stages of their NAP process, NDC
and economic development through the NDCs. Addition- adaptation components can also inform future outputs,
ally, 16 of the 38 countries that had submitted adaptation including NAP documents (Dixit and O’Connor 2022).
communications by the end of 2021—primarily countries in
In addition to national plans and policies, more current
Africa and Latin America—designated their updated NDCs
NDCs refer to other international conventions and frame-
as their adaptation communications (UNFCCC 2022a).
works compared to the initial NDCs. Adaptation and resil-
The vast majority of current NDCs link the document to ience efforts are highly cross cutting and intertwined with a
national policy, with 136 of them identifying national and country’s development trajectory (Dixit et al. 2022), meaning
sectoral policies relevant to adaptation. On the other hand, they often possess relevant linkages to frameworks outside
only 24 current NDCs included subnational adaptation of the UNFCCC, which may ultimately be more pivotal to
policies, a modest increase from the initial NDCs. Although whether these commitments will actually be implemented.
subnational adaptation has varying relevance depending Of the current NDCs, 101 identify international conventions
on country context, its low and relatively static inclusion and frameworks in the context of adaptation, and although
suggests that many countries are choosing to prioritize this number lags slightly behind the number of countries
NDCs as instruments to primarily synthesize national and referencing NAPs and policies, it shows a massive increase
sectoral plans for adaptation. One example of subnational from only 37 countries with these references in the initial
inclusion is Canada, which presents key climate goals and NDC submissions. One of the most common frameworks
actions for each of its provinces and territories in its updated identified in NDC adaptation components is the SDGs, but
NDC (UNFCCC n.d.). The communication of regional and countries also commonly reference the Sendai Framework
local efforts has the potential to improve vertical coherence for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Convention on Biologi-
and provide a more comprehensive synthesis of adaptation cal Diversity, the United Nations Convention to Combat
policy in the NDCs. Desertification, and the Ramsar Convention. However,
integration of international frameworks into the NDCs
NAPs are crucial complementary instruments to NDCs for remains highly variable. Mexico, for example, performs a
adaptation, and aligning NDCs and country NAP processes comprehensive mapping of SDGs as they relate to each of
is key to operationalizing NDC adaptation priorities. The its adaptation actions, but other Parties may make cursory
NAP process, whether completed or ongoing, is often an mention of this framework with little detail (UNFCCC
important driver of NDC adaptation components due to n.d.). Further research is needed to determine the degree to
its comprehensive nature. Whereas NDCs often represent a which countries integrate other international frameworks
high-level snapshot of adaptation planning, NAPs include into their NDC adaptation components, especially pertain-
extensive detail for adaptation needs and actions, enabling ing to the SDGs, and whether and how much this influences
countries to identify and address their medium- and long- implementation.
term adaptation priorities (Hammill et al. 2019). For exam-
ple, by the end of 2021, the 30 completed NAP documents
included an average of 87 adaptation actions, significantly Information on climate trends,
more than appeared in the NDCs, and NAPs often include impacts, and vulnerability
valuable operational details, such as indicators, and monitor-
In both rounds of submissions, NDCs consistently provide
ing and evaluation frameworks (NAP-GN 2022). Although
information on national climate trends and impacts. The
the number of completed NAPs18 is dwarfed by NDC
number of NDCs that do so has remained high, with around
submissions, countries with NAPs may leverage strategic
104 submissions including this type of information in both
synergies through their NDCs. For example, the NAP that
initial and current NDCs (Figure 25). Climate change trends
Fiji completed in 2018 comprehensively synthesized existing
frequently described in NDCs include changes in tempera-

ture, rainfall patterns, sea level rise, and hydrometeorological trend and impact information serves as valuable context for
events. Additionally, countries cite floods and droughts lead- enhancing NDC adaptation components, especially when
ing to food and water insecurity as common physical impacts supported by the latest assessments and national communi-
of climate change, and socioeconomic impacts may include cations (Dixit and O’Connor 2022).
disease outbreaks and increased health risks as well as hous-
Although information on trends and impacts remains con-
ing and infrastructure damages from extreme events.
sistently strong, information on the vulnerability of specific
Some countries, such as Panama, improved climate change population groups lags behind. NDCs are only half as likely
information in an updated NDC. Panama’s initial NDC to identify specific vulnerable groups as they are to delineate
did not communicate any impact or vulnerability informa- broader information on climate change trends and impacts,
tion, but its second NDC details short- and long-term and the share that do describe vulnerable groups has declined
climate change trends as well as potential impacts on marine slightly since the first submissions. An analysis of a subset of
resources, infrastructure, and vulnerable sectors (UNFCCC updated NDCs found women, the elderly, and children to be
n.d.). It also identifies Indigenous peoples in Panama as the three most frequently identified vulnerable groups in the
especially vulnerable to climate change, detailing displace- updated NDCs (Dixit et al. 2022).
ment risks following impacts to marine environments. This
FIGURE 25 | Inclusion of Information on Climate Change Trends, Impacts, and Vulnerabilities
Includes short-, medium-, and long-term trends for changes in climate
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Includes physical climate change impacts on sectors and systems
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Includes socioeconomic climate change impacts on sectors and systems
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Includes vulnerabilities and risks for specific population groups
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs

72 | WRI.ORG
Summary and implications PRIORITY ADAPTATION
The majority of current NDCs (90) describe their adapta-
tion planning process. This information appears more often
ACTIONS AND
in the current NDCs than in the initial ones, but less often IMPLEMENTATION
than descriptions of the NDC development process writ
large. The level of detail provided for planning and develop- Sector-specific
ment—including information related to stakeholder consul- adaptation measures
tations and institutional arrangements—is highly variable
The current NDCs identify a wide range of priority adapta-
across the NDCs.
tion actions intended for countries to increase resilience
Current NDCs are better aligned than initial NDCs with and reduce vulnerability across sectors and systems of the
national plans and policies for adaptation, especially adaptation component. These actions are diverse in scope,
NAPs. Linkages to national and sectoral adaptation policies, with some laying out broad descriptions of strategic intent or
development plans, and international frameworks such as the work programs and others describing detailed sets of activi-
SDGs are described more often in new and updated NDCs ties (Dixit et al. 2022). Adaptation components may commu-
than in initial submissions. But the lack of clear guidance nicate vulnerabilities and needs without discussing priority
and the resulting variability among NDC adaptation com- actions, but a consistently high percentage of NDCs (122 out
ponents can lead to inconsistency and misalignment across of 143 initial NDCs and 122 out of 144 current NDCs) do
planning instruments. Countries should develop future prioritize specific adaptation actions. Although the number
NDCs strategically as part of a wider suite of adaptation of NDCs that list adaptation actions is stable, the number
instruments rather than as standalone documents (Dixit et of priority actions themselves has nearly doubled. Countries
al. 2022). Additionally, through the Adaptation Committee, collectively communicated 2,850 adaptation actions in their
the UNFCCC could build on the supplementary guidance initial NDCs and 4,641 actions in the current NDCs.
already in development, mapping out the information needs
The number of adaptation actions has increased substantially
of all adaptation instruments and improving clarity on how
in aggregate, but this increase was not evenly distributed
to link them. Fostering further alignment across instruments
across countries assessed. Whereas 70 countries included
could contribute to progress tracking for the GGA, which
more priority actions in their new and updated NDCs
seeks to enhance adaptive capacity and resilience, reduce
compared to the initial NDCs, 33 countries decreased
vulnerability, and contribute to sustainable development
their total adaptation actions in their updated submissions.
(UNFCCC 2015), and it drew increased attention leading up
Only two countries, Antigua and Barbuda and the United
to COP27 (COP27 Presidency 2022). By producing subse-
Arab Emirates, included the exact same number of actions
quent NDCs with clear purpose and strong alignment across
between submission rounds (although the actions themselves
instruments, Parties could contribute to this goal by creating
differed). These numbers suggest that a relatively small
a strategic through line towards implementation.
subset of countries account for the large increase in priority
Countries consistently include information on climate actions seen in the new and updated NDCs. Table 2 pro-
trends, impacts, and vulnerability in their NDCs. Around vides examples of significant changes in countries’ priority
104 NDCs include information on national climate trends as adaptation actions.
well as physical and socioeconomic impacts in both sub-
These numbers alone are not a sufficient indicator of adapta-
mission rounds. Information on vulnerabilities for specific
tion ambition (Dixit et al. 2022). The level of detail and
population groups is comparatively lacking, however, raising
scope of the actions described in NDCs is also critical—in
the question of why this gap exists. Possible explanations
other words, quality, as well as quantity, matters. For example,
include gaps in stakeholder consultation or climate risk
although Bhutan’s and Saint Lucia’s new and updated NDCs
assessments or a lack of prioritization among countries in
describe fewer adaptation actions, they also include a greater
reporting this information.
focus on their planned or completed NAPs. Actions must
also be well targeted to match needs.

TABLE 2 | Top-Ten Country Examples with Significant Changes in Total Number of Priority Adaptation Actions
COUNTRIES ABSOLUTE CHANGE COUNTRIES ABSOLUTE CHANGE

No actions in initial Albania +151 Actions in initial Uganda -38
NDC; actions in NDC; no actions in
Kyrgyzstan +52 Gambia -34
updated NDC updated NDC
Chile +31 Bhutan -32
Panama +23 Guinea-Bissau -22
Solomon Islands +21 Democratic People’s -22
Republic of Korea
Papua New Guinea +17 Bangladesh -14
Monaco +6 Belarus -9
Samoa +3 Bahrain -7
Oman +2 Marshall Islands -6
Andorra +1 Qatar -5
Large increase in Sri Lanka +189 Large decrease in State of Palestine -48
number of actions number of actions
Jordan +113 Benin -40
between initial and between initial and
updated NDC Sierra Leone +101 updated NDC Nigeria -38
Paraguay +86 Vanuatu -32
Dominican Republic +76 Zambia -29
Indonesia +74 Angola -20
Cambodia +73 Zimbabwe -17
Mozambique +69 Lao People’s -13
Democratic Republic
Myanmar +69 Honduras -12
Republic of the Congo +61 Saint Lucia -12
Notes: NDC = nationally determined contribution. The authors include countries that qualified for multiple categories only once in this in order to highlight a diverse set of NDCs.
Andorra references multiple actions originating from a separate planning document in its updated NDC, but these were counted as one action because the NDC does not
provide enough detail to categorize separately.
The authors conducted a system analysis of adaptation interventions climate smart. Water and NbS were also two
actions in the NDCs using the framework of critical systems highly prioritized systems, with over 700 and 600 actions,
from the Global Commission on Adaptation’s Adapt Now respectively. Many water actions relate to water governance
report (Bapna et al. 2019). This showed that countries placed and financing but also frequently to irrigation, infrastruc-
a high priority on food and nutrition security, water, and ture, and disaster risk management (i.e., flood prevention).
NbS. Food and nutrition security stands out as the most- Actions linked to NbS most frequently focus on embedding
prioritized system (Box 6), with over 800 actions in the new NbS into adaptation planning and policy, with a relatively
and updated NDCs (Figure 26). Many of these actions relate small number of actions explicitly targeting increases in
to improving smallholder productivity, helping agricultural NbS investment.
producers manage climate risks, and making agriculture
74 | WRI.ORG
FIGURE 26 | Breakdown of Priority Adaptation Actions in the NDCs Using Adapt Now Critical Systems
Food and nutrition security

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Water
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Infrastructure
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Human health
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Other
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Notes: NDC = nationally determined contribution. These numbers exclude instances where sectors appear multiple times for the same adaptation action to avoid duplication for
actions that were coded with multiple subsectors of the same category.

The three most-prioritized critical systems appear in NDCs Categorizing the priority adaptation actions by conventional
across most regions, but for other systems, regional variation economic sector shows similarities when compared to the
is more pronounced (Table 3). For example, the infrastruc- critical system framework, with highly prioritized critical
ture system is included by more than 65 percent of countries systems including water and NbS broken down into multiple
in two regions, but less than 40 percent of countries do so sectors. Whereas many of the lower-priority sectors (tour-
in the remaining five. Sub-Saharan Africa stands out as the ism, education, etc.) aligned with the “other” critical system
region with the most-comprehensive critical system coverage. category, actions in the transport sector aligned strongly with
the infrastructure critical system, supporting the findings
Almost 800 priority adaptation actions in the current NDCs of previous NDC analysis that adaptation in the transport
fell outside of the framework of critical systems and were sector has been largely limited to infrastructure resilience
categorized as “other.” This category captures a large, highly (SLOCAT 2021b). The cross-cutting area category includes
varied number of adaptation actions, functioning as a catchall a higher number of actions compared to the “other” critical
for any action that did not fit with the nine other critical system, and this is primarily due to the sector’s more descrip-
systems. By cross-referencing this category with conventional tive subcategories, which were applicable to a wide variety
economic sectors categorized by the World Bank (WRI of sectoral actions that included cross-cutting elements. Few
2022), the authors found that this system captured numer- NDCs include integrated adaptation and mitigation priority
ous cross-cutting actions related to capacity building and measures, although many reference mitigation cobenefits
knowledge transfer, climate services, social development, from adaptation actions (Box 8).
economy-wide considerations, energy, tourism, and educa-
tion (Figure 27). This aggregate analysis provides insight into which sectors
and systems countries are commonly prioritizing for adapta-
tion, but it remains critical to examine NDC adaptation
TABLE 3 | Percentage of Countries in Each Region with NDCs Containing Priority Actions for Each Critical System
REGION FOOD AND NATURE- WATER CITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE DISASTER FINANCING HUMAN LOCALLY LED OTHER
NUTRITION BASED URBAN RISK ADAPTATION HEALTH ADAPTATION
SECURITY SOLUTIONS AREAS MANAGEMENT
East Asia 59% 56% 50% 41% 38% 44% 38% 41% 34% 44%
and the
Pacific
Europe and 22% 26% 22% 11% 22% 22% 19% 15% 11% 22%
Central Asia
Latin 76% 67% 76% 48% 67% 70% 48% 61% 58% 58%
America
and the
Caribbean
Middle East 56% 56% 61% 44% 33% 56% 17% 50% 33% 56%
and North
Africa
North 50% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0%
America
South Asia 63% 50% 63% 13% 38% 63% 50% 50% 63% 63%
Sub-Saharan 90% 85% 88% 44% 71% 75% 63% 73% 58% 79%
Africa

76 | WRI.ORG
FIGURE 27 | Breakdown of Priority Adaptation Actions in the NDCs Using Conventional Economic Sectors
Agriculture
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Water
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Environment
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Coastal zone
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Health
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Social development
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Urban
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Energy
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Economy-wide
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Tourism
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Transport
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Education
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Cross-cutting area
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Notes: NDC = nationally determined contribution. These numbers avoid double counting for actions that were coded for multiple subsectors of the same category.

actions within the larger ecosystem of adaptation planning
Monitoring, evaluation, and
to assess synergies and gaps with national planning efforts.
The Climate Watch platform presents the data used in this learning for adaptation activities
assessment in a format conducive to country-level analysis. More NDCs with adaptation components—but still fewer
The aggregate analysis provides insight into which sectors than half—include information about monitoring, evalua-
and systems countries are commonly prioritizing for adaptation, and learning (MEL) for their adaptation activities. Only
tion. Understanding which systems receive the most and 57 current NDCs include references to MEL approaches
least attention in the NDCs could provide insights into pos- for adaptation (Figure 29). The number of current NDCs
sible sectoral gaps for current adaptation activities and influ- including specific details for adaptation MEL is even lower,
ence the development of future rounds of NDCs to improve with 40 describing institutional arrangements for MEL, 26
system coverage of adaptation actions as appropriate. referencing alignment with national MEL systems, and just
13 including metrics or indicators. Although these numbers
Additional details for are all higher compared to the initial NDCs, the increase
adaptation actions in each category is relatively minor. Rwanda serves as an

example of improved communication around adaptation
The current NDCs include more time frames and indicators MEL in its updated NDC. In addition to detailing institu-
for priority adaptation actions than the initial NDCs, but tional responsibilities for adaptation MEL, the country links
this number remains small compared to the total number its updated NDC to a comprehensive monitoring, report-
of actions. Of the 4,641 total priority actions in the current ing, and verification document, and it commits to reporting
NDCs, 1,826 of them—or 39 percent—include a time frame adaptation indicators in future biennial transparency reports
of action (Figure 28). Even fewer (621 actions, or 13 percent) (Dixit and O’Connor 2022).
include measurable targets and indicators.
BOX 6 | Food and Nutrition Security
Of the 122 current NDCs that included priority adaptation linkages between the agriculture and water sectors, particu-
actions, 109 of them (89 percent) included at least one action larly irrigation. Additionally, 60 food and nutrition security
related to food and nutrition security. This reflects both actions in the current NDCs also fall under the financing
the importance of agriculture and food systems and their adaptation critical system, with 55 of these actions com-
vulnerability to climate change impacts because climate- ing from the new and updated NDCs alone. These linkages
induced changes in temperature and rainfall patterns affect reflect adaptation activities such as developing contingent
natural systems, crop yields, and food security.a The authors finance and insurance schemes for small-scale farmers feel-
categorized individual adaptation actions with up to three ing the effects of climate change impacts. Finally, the NbS
critical systems to better capture actions that affect multiple and locally led adaptation critical systems both demonstrated
critical system categories and linkages between systems. In moderately high numbers of linkages to food and nutrition
the current NDCs, many food and nutrition security actions security, with 40 and 38 food and nutrition security actions
affected other critical systems as well, with the greatest num- also falling under these systems, respectively. Despite
ber of these actions relating to water, financing adaptation,19 appearing less frequently across the NDCs overall, many
nature-based solutions (NbS), and locally led adaptation locally led adaptation actions linked to food and nutrition
(Figure B6.1). security by aiming to leverage local knowledge for agricul-
tural adaptation and build capacities of local producers.
The current NDCs include the most food and nutrition actions
linked to water, with 66 such actions falling under both criti-
cal system categories. These actions reflect well-established
78 | WRI.ORG
BOX 6 | Food and Nutrition Security (Cont.)
FIGURE B6.1 | Priority Adaptation Actions Related to Food and Nutrition Security That Also Affect Other Critical Systems
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Water
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Infrastructure
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Human Health
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Other
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Notes: NDC = nationally determined contribution. These numbers exclude instances where a single sector appears multiple times for the same adaptation action, to
avoid duplication for actions that were coded with multiple subsectors of the same category.
Source : a. Carter et al. 2021.

FIGURE 28 | Time Frames and Indicators Identified for Priority Adaptation Actions in the NDCs
Total number of adaptation actions

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Measurable targets or indicators of actions

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Time frame of action

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

Notes: NDC = nationally determined contribution.

FIGURE 29 | NDCs Providing Information on Adaptation MEL
Includes references to a monitoring and evaluation approach

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Institutional setup for MEL for adaptation

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Indicators, metrics, or criteria for MEL

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Alignment with other national MEL systems

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Number of NDCs
Notes: MEL = monitoring, evaluation, and learning; NDC = nationally determined contribution.
80 | WRI.ORG
Transformative adaptation
The IPCC defines transformational adaptation as an approach Although this approach is intended to minimize the long-
that “seeks to change the fundamental attributes of systems term impacts of climate change, only 11 current NDCs
in response to actual or expected climate and its effects, often explicitly mentioned the term transformative adaptation. The
at a scale and ambition greater than incremental activities” authors also found no evidence that countries were prioritiz-
and notes that for agriculture, the ways in which transfor- ing measures using long-term adaptation pathways, identify-
mation could be reflected include “through adjustments to ing levers for system shifts, or avoiding maladaptation in
cropping systems via new varieties, changing planting times, the NDCs (Dixit et al. 2022). Figure 30 shows elements of
or using more efficient irrigation” (IPCC 2014). Carter et al. transformative adaptation in the NDCs.
(2018) expanded upon this definition to define transforma-
tive adaptation in the agricultural sector as an intentional
response to climate change impacts that includes a sig-
nificant expansion or shift in key systems, introduces new
methods or technologies at scale, or otherwise fundamentally
alters systems (Box 7).
FIGURE 30 | References to Different Elements of Transformative Adaptation in the NDCs
Includes references to transformative adaptation
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Includes priority actions that indicate a significant expansion in scale or address change in the underlying system
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Includes priority actions with innovation
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Includes priority actions that include a shift in location for the action being implemented
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20
Notes: NDC = nationally determined contribution.
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Source: Authors’ analysis based on WRI (2022). Number of NDCs

Although few NDCs engage explicitly with this concept, adaptation in the NDCs without explicit country engage-
many more include elements of transformative adaptation. ment with the term; many actions identified in the NDCs
Seventy-two current NDCs identify priority adaptation lack the detail to fully determine transformative potential.
actions that involve an expansion in scale or system change, Countries could benefit from increased support in iden-
and 49 NDCs include actions with innovation. Only the tifying transformative adaptation pathways, mapping the
shift in location category, which received scant attention transformative potential of adaptation actions, and linking
in the initial round, got slightly less in the current NDCs. their NDCs with long-term strategies to overcome this gap
Although the increases across most categories are encourag- (Dixit et al. 2022). Table 4 provides examples of adaptation
ing, it remains difficult to assess elements of transformative actions with transformative potential in the NDCs.
BOX 7 | Elements of Transformative Adaptation
To identify elements of transformative adaptation, the authors ▪ Expansion with system change: The action includes an
use the framework from Dixit et al.a that the Intergovern- expansion that requires a change in the overall system
mental Panel on Climate Changeb defines and Carter et al.c that goes beyond incremental adaptation or business-as-
expands upon. The framework includes four elements: expan- usual approaches.
sion, expansion with system change, innovation, and a shift
in location. The following framework guidance is intended to
▪ Innovation: The action includes a new application of an
approach, technology, or method in a particular region or
assist in identifying these elements of transformative adapta-
resource system.
tion in nationally determined contribution adaptation actions:
▪ Shift in location: This action includes a change in location
▪ Expansion: This priority adaptation action includes an for the adaptation activity being implemented, such
expansion over a larger geographic area or an increase in as shifting from farming to nonfarming livelihoods or
the number of people impacted. relocation of climate-vulnerable communities.
Sources: a. Dixit et al. 2022; b. IPCC 2014; c. Carter et al. 2018.
82 | WRI.ORG
TABLE 4 | Examples of Transformative Adaptation
COUNTRY DOCUMENT PRIORITY ADAPTATION ACTION TRANSFORMATIVE ELEMENT

Rwanda First NDC “Soil conservation and land husbandry . . . Rwanda intends to expand its soil Expansion
conservation and land husbandry programs through: Installation of land protection
structures like radical and progressive terraces where these structures will be
installed on 100% of the relevant area by 2030; Development and implementation of
an intensive agroforestry program with a target of covering 100% of arable land by
2030” (pp. 5–6)
Morocco Updated NDC Agriculture: “Extension of irrigation to new agricultural perimeters, covering an area Expansion
of 60,000 ha, for a total investment of 3.5 billion USD” (p. 23)
Mexico First NDC Adaptation of strategic infrastructure and productive systems: “Strengthen the Expansion with system change
diversification of sustainable agriculture by conserving germplasm and native maize
species, thermal comfort for livestock, development of agro-ecosystems, through the
incorporation of climate criteria in agriculture programs” (p. 8)
Cabo Verde Updated NDC Agriculture associated measure: “Associate agriculture systematically to livestock Expansion with system change
in order to cycle soil-regenerating nutrients and enhance conditions for the
maintenance of livestock, making it more adapted to the new agro-climato-
ecological conditions, especially in what refers to heat and water management,
cattle feed and the control diseases” (pp. 36–37)
Vietnam Updated NDC “[Adaptation actions include] changing the production structure and varieties Expansion with system change
of plants and animals . . . implementing the programme for aquatic resources
protection and development, diversifying cultured species, applying technological
measures and cultivation practices of sustainable and organic aquaculture” (p. 18)
Nicaragua Updated NDC “Modernization of the country’s hydro-meteorological services in order to maintain Innovation
accurate forecasts and early warning systems for effective and efficient responses,
which includes modernization of observation, assimilation and forecast systems,
access to sensors and technology, as well as the developing skilled human
resources” (p. 28)
Cambodia Updated NDC “Integrating climate change response measures onto the construction design for Innovation
buildings and for rural housing (use of modern integration of technology)” (p. 120)
Ethiopia First NDC Drought: “Create biodiversity movement corridors, especially up towards higher Shift in location
terrain, in areas where most of the land is under cultivation. This will minimize
biodiversity loss through enabling the re-establishment and movement of plant and
animal species and varieties to areas suitable for their survival when temperature
rises” (p. 6)
Fiji Updated NDC “Relocate highly vulnerable communities, and implement the concept of ‘build back Shift in location
better’” (p. 5)
Notes: NDC = nationally determined contribution. A more detailed description of the transformative elements used in this table can be found in Dixit et al. (2022).
Source: Authors’ analysis.

BOX 8 | Adaptation-Mitigation Synergies
Climate-resilient development integrates adaptation and submissions (Figure B8.1). Although references to mitigation
mitigation measures to advance sustainable development. cobenefits have improved substantially, the level of detail
This approach can harness synergies and reduce trade- surrounding cobenefits remains highly variable. Addition-
offs between adaptation and mitigation, but the window for ally, these cobenefits are poorly reflected in the mitigation
enabling climate-resilient development narrows for many section of current NDCs, suggesting a structural disconnect
communities as global warming nears 1.5°C.a There exists a in NDC development. The teams responsible for developing
high potential to integrate adaptation and mitigation in the the adaptation and mitigation components of NDCs are often
nationally determined contributions (NDCs), especially in separate,c and though many countries refer to adaptation-
key sectors such as agriculture. But many countries do not mitigation synergies, there is little evidence that these syner-
include details or explicitly acknowledge adaptation-mitiga- gies are integrated across NDC components. Finally, a small
tion synergies in these areas.b but increasing number of countries include economic diver-
sification plans in their NDCs. These plans largely pertain
Compared to the initial NDCs, the current NDCs include
to a small subset of oil-rich countries, but they link to both
significantly more references to mitigation cobenefits from
mitigation (reducing dependence on high-emitting industries)
adaptation actions. Seventy-seven current NDCs identify the
and adaptation (diversifying away from climate-vulnerable
emissions reduction potential of their adaptation actions, a
products), contributing to climate-resilient development.
number that has more than doubled compared to the initial
FIGURE B8.1 | References to Mitigation Cobenefits from Adaptation and Economic Diversification in the NDCs
Identifies mitigation cobenefits of adaptation actions

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Adaptation actions are accounted for in mitigation section

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Includes economic diversification plans with links to mitigation and adaptation

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Number of NDCs

84 | WRI.ORG
BOX 8 | Adaptation-Mitigation Synergies (Cont.)
Mitigation actions in certain subsectors can have significant mention adaptation-mitigation linkages related to agriculture,
cobenefits for adaptation as well, especially in the land use, forestry, or other land uses, and 19 include some mention
land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) and agriculture sec- of adaptation-mitigation synergies in either their NDC or
tors. Although these measures are often listed in NDC docu- national adaptation plan. In NDCs, the tables with information
ments as mitigation measures, actions in the LULUCF sector to facilitate clarity, transparency, and understanding provide
related to afforestation, reforestation, reducing deforestation, standard details on countries’ targets and methodologies and
or the restoration of wetlands, grasslands, and other ecosys- include a field for the mitigation cobenefits of the adaptation
tems can reduce flood risk in addition to sequestering car- actions included in the NDC. However, they do not include a
bon. Likewise, soil management practices to improve soil car- similar field for adaptation benefits resulting from mitigation
bon sequestration can also reduce the severity of droughts.d measures. Given the growing need to understand and har-
An Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop- ness synergies between countries’ adaptation and mitigation
ment report found that of the Group of Twenty members, 10 efforts, ensuring a more complete documentation of these
synergies is something to consider moving forward.
Sources: a. IPCC 2022a; b. Ross et al. 2019; c. Dixit and O’Connor 2022; d. OECD 2021.

Countries are prioritizing more adaptation actions in their by developing NDC implementation plans or by integrat-
current NDCs compared to their initial submissions, and ing NDC actions into their NAP process. A clearly defined
these measures include greater coverage of critical systems enabling environment that includes strong country owner-
and sectors for adaptation. The current NDCs include ship and inclusive stakeholder engagement is critical for
significantly more priority adaptation actions than the initial NDC implementation (NDC Partnership 2022). Donors
NDCs, but variation in their scope and detail means that should also consider supporting developing countries to
their number alone are not indicators of quality. Sectoral help them elaborate on existing implementation plans and
coverage for adaptation actions also improved. Food and develop country-led indicators aligned with existing national
nutrition security stand out as the highest-priority critical adaptation processes (Dixit et al. 2022). Supporting these
system, with more than 1,000 adaptation actions relating to plans and associated indicators could contribute to the GGA
this system presented across 109 current NDCs. Combining by advancing adaptation implementation.
aggregate sectoral data with country-level analysis could pro-
Less than half of NDC adaptation components include
vide insights into possible gaps in types of adaptation actions,
information on adaptation MEL, suggesting that devel-
informing future planning and implementation activities.
oping countries could benefit from improved guidance
Despite increased sectoral coverage, just 39 percent of and tools on tracking adaptation MEL and linking with
priority actions include time frames, and only 13 percent national MEL frameworks. Donors could consider invest-
include targets or indicators, suggesting that more work is ing in linking national adaptation MEL systems with
necessary to ensure that these actions are ready for imple- reporting requirements to the Paris Agreement, and country
mentation. NDCs themselves are typically not designed for governments could consider how to include adaptation
implementation but rather represent a high-level snapshot in their enhanced transparency framework and biennial
of goals and intended actions. However, countries should transparency reports (Dixit et al. 2022). Adaptation MEL
aim to fill the gap between NDC adaptation actions named is also an important element of the GGA; countries have
and the steps needed to implement them. They can do this

demonstrated renewed interest in developing this goal The current NDCs also show a considerable increase in the
(COP27 Presidency 2022), and enhancing these systems inclusion of Indigenous peoples’ concerns, with a par-
would contribute to the tracking progress. ticular focus on local and Indigenous knowledge systems.
Forty-eight current NDCs reference local and Indigenous
Adaptation actions show growing potential for trans- knowledge systems in relation to adaptation, and although
formative adaptation in the current NDCs, despite this accounts for less than half of the total NDC adapta-
low explicit direct engagement with this concept. Just tion components, it represents nearly double the number in
11 current NDCs include explicit references to the term initial NDCs (Figure 32). Fewer (35) current NDCs support
transformative adaptation, yet over 70 include priority actions increased Indigenous rights, but that is up dramatically from
with related elements. This finding raises the question of initial submissions. References to free, prior, and informed
why such a disconnect exists. Possible explanations include consent for Indigenous peoples remained low in absolute
a lack of technical capacity or political will among countries terms as well, but these, too, are far more common than in
to intentionally structure NDC priority adaptation actions the initial round. Nicaragua demonstrates improved inclu-
around transformative adaptation approaches. Increased sup- sion of Indigenous peoples in its updated NDC, providing
port to identify transformative pathways and link NDCs to detailed information on all three of the above categories,
long-term strategies could help overcome this gap. compared to sparse detail concerning Indigenous communi-
ties in its first submission (UNFCCC n.d.).
EQUITY CONSIDERATIONS
IN ADAPTATION Countries are more focused on gender equity in the cur-
The current NDCs improve multiple elements of equity20 rent NDCs. Very few initial NDCs include any references
compared to the initial submissions, including a significant to equitable participation and benefits from adaptation
increase in the integration of gender. Seventy-nine current investments, and none of them reference collection of sex-
NDCs describe differentiated adaptation needs between men disaggregated data. These elements are all significantly more
and women, and more than 50 reference equal distribution of prevalent in the new and updated submissions, suggesting
adaptation benefits and equitable participation in decision- broader recognition of the need for gender responsiveness.
making (Figure 31). Fewer (26) current NDCs include com-
mitments to collect sex-disaggregated data for adaptation Inclusion of Indigenous peoples’ concerns is better
MEL. The increase compared to the initial NDCs is striking. represented in the current NDCs than in the initial
Few initial NDCs include aspects of gender responsiveness, submissions. More cite Indigenous knowledge systems
only two mention equal distribution of adaptation benefits, and increased Indigenous rights in their NDCs, although
and none of them commits to collecting sex-disaggregated few refer to the need for free, prior, and informed consent
data. This finding suggests that countries are improving for Indigenous peoples. Although these elements of equity
their integration of gender in adaptation and climate change have improved in the NDCs, further research is needed for
strategies, which is consistent with other recent assess- a comprehensive understanding of equity considerations,
ments of current NDCs (CARE 2020; IUCN 2021; NDC including issues related to youth engagement and common
Partnership 2020; UNDP 2022). Cambodia stands out as but differentiated responsibilities.
an example of improved gender responsiveness. The country
identified gender as a gap in the initial NDC and addressed
this in its updated submission through designated gender-
related adaptation actions as well as gender targets for all
other adaptation actions (Dixit and O’Connor 2022). Plans
for monitoring and evaluation are less robust; fewer (26)
current NDCs include commitments to collect sex-disaggre-
gated data for adaptation MEL.
86 | WRI.ORG
FIGURE 31 | Gender Integration in the NDCs
Addresses gender differences in adaptation needs, opportunities, and capacities

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Addresses equitable participation and influence by women and men in decision-making

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Recognizes that financial resources and other benefits resulting from adaptation investments should
be equally distributed between women and men
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Includes gender equality and women's empowerment in adaptation MEL system, including collection
of sex-disaggregated data
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Number of NDCs
Notes: MEL = monitoring, evaluation, and learning; NDC = nationally determined contribution.
FIGURE 32 | Inclusion of IPLC in Initial and Current NDCs
Supports increased Indigenous rights, agency, and governance systems

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
References local knowledge and technologies that preserve culture and Indigenous knowledge systems
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Preserves rights to self-determination and to free, prior, and informed consent for Indigenous peoples
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs
Notes: IPLC = Indigenous peoples and local communities; NDC = nationally determined contribution.

BOX 9 | Losses and Damages from Climate Change
Countries appear to have mixed levels of engagement with specific extreme events. Countries rarely provide analysis of
losses and damages21 (L&D) from climate change in their broader trends in L&D beyond individual instances, and few
current nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and mention the use of climate change scenarios for calculating
fewer reported on economic L&D than in the first submis- future L&D costs.
sions. Slightly under half (75) of current NDCs refer to L&D,
Very few countries have included a clear definition of the
only 50 include descriptions of current L&D costs, and just 21
term Loss and Damage in their NDCs. Only six Parties
describe future costs. This represents a slight decrease com-
(including two SIDS)—Antigua and Barbuda, Niue, Papua
pared to the initial submissions. This finding changes some-
New Guinea, Peru, the State of Palestine, and Vietnam—
what when looking at the most vulnerable countries. Sixteen
provide a definition of Loss and Damage in their current
out of 50 NDCs describing current L&D costs and 7 out of 21
NDCs; although this has increased compared to the initial
NDCs with future L&D costs come from small island develop-
NDCs, it represents a small fraction of total submissions.
ing states (SIDS), among the most vulnerable countries to
These findings suggest that countries have little experience
climate change impacts. SIDS are also increasingly including
operationalizing the term in national contexts. Donors could
economic L&D costs in their current NDCs, whereas other
help countries overcome this barrier by supporting improved
countries are including them less often, suggesting that the
analysis of national L&D trends; approaches for addressing
most climate-vulnerable countries continue to value L&D as
L&D, including comprehensive risk management; and the
an element of NDC submissions (Figure B9.1). However, L&D
use of climate scenarios to calculate economic L&D costs.a
costs included across the NDCs are often snapshots from
FIGURE B9.1 | References to L&D in the NDCs
NDC includes references to losses and damages (L&D)

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Description of current economic L&D figures

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Description of future economic L&D figures

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Use of a climate change scenario to calculate future economic L&D

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Definition of Loss and Damage

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs
Notes: L&D = losses and damages; NDC = nationally determined contribution.
88 | WRI.ORG
BOX 9 | Losses and Damages from Climate Change (Cont.)
Trends in economic descriptions of L&D are mixed (with tion of rural populations to urban centers in response to
increases in some dimensions of reporting and decreases climatic pressures. The only L&D topic discussed less often
in others), but the authors found more of the current NDCs in updated NDCs is comprehensive risk management, and
including elements of averting, minimizing, and address- this change may be a matter of terminology; countries may
ing L&D. Countries have increasingly described slow-onset include elements of comprehensive risk management without
events and human mobility (including migration, displace- explicitly mentioning the term, making it difficult to reliably
ment, and planned relocation) in their current NDCs as identify. SIDS disproportionately include these elements of
well as finance and capacity building for L&D (Figure B9.2). L&D as well in their current NDCs, with greater increases
The most common slow-onset event included is sea level across all indicators than other countries.
rise, and the current NDCs frequently describe the migra-
FIGURE B9.2 | References to Different L&D Topics in the NDCs
Inclusion of noneconomic L&D

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Information about slow-onset events

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Information about comprehensive risk management approaches

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Information about human mobility, displacement, and planned relocation

Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
Information about provision of finance and capacity building for losses and damages
Initial NDCs
Current NDCs
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of NDCs
Notes: L&D = losses and damages; NDC = nationally determined contribution.

Note: This report distinguishes between capitalized Loss and Damage to refer to political debates under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change and to countries’ climate finance requirements as stated in their NDCs and lowercased losses and damages (L&D) to refer to observed impacts and
projected risks from climate change.
Source: a. Dixit et al. 2022.

CHAPTER 5
Finance
Finance underpins the mitigation and adaptation
goals articulated in countries’ NDCs. NDCs
themselves also provide a way for countries to
communicate their country-level climate finance
requirements and keep them updated. This chapter
explores the finance conditions required for
countries to meet their targets and the degree of
NDC’s conditionality on external finance. In addition,
it provides an understanding of the challenges,
gaps, and where we stand on the finance needed
to achieve NDCs.

While global climate finance increased over the last decade, COP decisions provide no mandate or guidance on climate
reaching an average of US$632 billion per year in 2019–20, finance requirements, the costs of countries’ mitigation or
it is still falling far short of meeting global needs. Annual adaptation actions, or other financial details that should be
climate finance would need to be nearly seven times larger reported in the context of NDCs. Nevertheless, many NDCs
by 2030—$4.5–$5 trillion per year—to limit warming and do include such information, discussing finance in vary-
adapt to climate change in line with global goals (Buchner ing levels of detail. No developed countries have included
et al. 2021). More than 90 percent of climate finance has climate finance requirements in their NDCs, so the analysis
been directed to mitigation efforts, as opposed to adaptation that follows is based exclusively on the NDCs of devel-
efforts, yet significantly more is needed to stem warming oping countries.
(IPCC 2022b). Global mitigation investments would need
This analysis examines the range of details that countries
to be three to six times higher in order to limit warming to
provide relating to costs, investments, and finance support or
2°C (IPCC 2022b).22 Annual investment needs for renew-
needs associated with implementing their NDCs. We refer
able energy alone are estimated at $831 billion–$1.9 trillion
to these collectively as their climate finance requirements. They
by 2050, more than twice as much as was invested from
include requirements
2017 to 2020 (Buchner et al. 2021). With regard to adap-
tation, estimated developing country annual needs range
from $155–$330 billion by 2030 to $280–$500 billion by ▪ pertaining to mitigation, to adaptation, and that are
not specified as pertaining to either or both, which is
2050 (UNEP 2021a), up from the $46 billion of adaptation
classified as unspecified;
finance recorded for 2019–20 (Buchner et al. 2021).
At COP26, the Glasgow Climate Pact recognized the

▪ pertaining to the conditional and unconditional
elements of NDCs, and those that are not specified as
importance of adequacy and predictability of adaptation pertaining to either;
▪ that
finance and the need to increase it, considering that current
funding flows from developed countries are insufficient to countries plan to meet domestically and
help developing countries meet their climate goals. Adapta- internationally, and those that are not specified as
tion investments can carry a high rate of return, with benefit- domestic or international; and
cost ratios ranging from 2:1 to 10:1, and in some cases even
higher, and failing to seize high-return climate adaptation
▪ that countries plan to meet via public and private finance,
and those that are not specified as public or private.
investment opportunities would undermine trillions of dol-
lars in potential growth and prosperity (Bapna et al 2019).
OVERALL FINANCE FIGURE 33 |Climate Finance Requirements in
Current NDCs
REQUIREMENTS
REPORTED IN NDCS $5000
Eighty-nine of the current NDCs report climate finance

requirements in some fashion. Seventy report mitigation $4000
requirements, 62 report adaptation requirements, and 14
report finance requirements but do not specify the share of
$3000
those requirements pertaining to mitigation or adaptation.
These reported finance requirements total $4,282 billion,
including $2,740 billion for mitigation, $1,067 billion for $2000
adaptation, and $475 billion unspecified (Figure 33).
Although total stated climate finance requirements decreased $1000

from the initial to the current NDCs (Figure 34), this is
caused by two outliers. One country (South Africa) reported
a smaller mitigation finance requirement (though a larger $0
adaptation requirement), and another country (China) did Adaptation Mitigation Unspecified
not report finance requirements in its updated NDC, as

it had done in its initial NDC. Absent these two outliers,
Source: Authors’ analysis based on UNFCCC (n.d.). Includes NDCs submitted
stated climate finance requirements increased by a net $1,518 through September 2022.
billion from the initial to the current NDCs.
FIGURE 34 | Change in Stated Total Climate Finance Requirements from the Initial to Current NDCs
$8,000 Increase
Decrease
$7,000
Total
- $1,164
$6,000 + $1,836
$5,000 - $1,000
- $319
US$ billion
$4,000
$3,000
$4,928
$2,000 $4,282
$1,000
$0
Total Initial NDC Increases South Africa China Other Decreases Total Updated NDC
Notes: NDC = nationally determined contribution. Decrease means that a country decreased the reported finance requirements in its current NDC relative to its initial NDC or
did not report finance requirements in its current NDC but had done so in its initial NDC. This figure excludes South Africa and China’s financial requirements. Includes NDCs
submitted through September 2022
Source: Authors’ analysis based on UNFCCC (n.d.)..

Within the total finance requirements, the highest estimate adaptation. In their first round of NDCs, 12 out of 67 coun-
among regional groups comes from Sub-Saharan Africa with tries had costs that did not specify between mitigation and
an estimate of $1,509 billion, followed by South Asia and adaptation; in their updated and second NDCs, only 14 out
East Asia with total finance requirements of $1,503 billion of 78 had unspecified requirements. This disaggregation is
and $707 billion, respectively (Figure 35). helpful for understanding the focus of country requirements.
For example, Cambodia’s first NDC stated that the NDC
Relatively few NDCs differentiate finance requirements would cost $1.27 billion, but in its updated submission, the
between the unconditional and conditional elements of their total increased and was disaggregated into adaptation and
NDCs. Thirty-nine current NDCs report unconditional mitigation figures. Cambodia now reports $2.19 billion in
finance requirements (up from 25 initial NDCs), and 51 adaptation costs, of which $0.50 billion is for conditional
current NDCs report conditional finance requirements adaptation measures and $1.71 billion is for unconditional
(up from 39 initial NDCs). Of the 62 that communicated adaptation measures that will be covered by domestic finance.
adaptation requirements, 82 percent (51 countries) reported In addition, it reports $2.21 billion in mitigation finance
conditional elements, and 63 percent (39 countries) reported requirements, of which $2 billion will be funded through
requirements associated with unconditional elements. Of domestic efforts and $0.21 billion through international sup-
the 70 that communicated mitigation requirements, only port. Another country that has disaggregated its stated costs
46 percent (32 countries) reported the requirements of the is Kenya. In its first NDC, Kenya estimated the total finance
unconditional elements of their NDCs, and 57 percent (40 requirements at $40 billion. In its updated NDC, Kenya
countries) reported the amount needed for the conditional raised that estimate and identified specific costs for adapta-
elements of their NDCs. tion and mitigation. The estimate for adaptation is $43.92
Among countries specifying finance requirements in both billion and for mitigation, $17.73 billion.
initial and new or updated NDCs, countries have increas-
ingly disaggregated their stated costs into mitigation and
FIGURE 35 | Climate Finance Requirements Reported in Current NDCs by Region
East Asia Adaptation

and Pacific
Mitigation
Europe and Unspecified

Central Asia
Latin America
and Caribbean
Middle East and

North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
$0 $500 $1000 $1500 $2000

US$ billion
Note: NDC = nationally determined contribution. Includes NDCs submitted through September 2022.
Source: Authors’ analysis based on UNFCCC (n.d.).
94 | WRI.ORG
MITIGATION FINANCE
REQUIREMENTS REPORTED
IN NDCS
Together, mitigation finance requirements for the 70 cur- $1,120 billion, an increase of 72 percent. Two factors explain
rent NDCs that include them add up to $2,740 billion. this increase. First, 18 more countries reported mitigation
Finance requirements associated with conditional mitigation finance requirements for the first time in their new and
measures were estimated at $1,105 billion, and the finance updated NDCs. Second, 24 out of 43 countries that had
requirements associated with unconditional mitigation already reported mitigation finance requirements raised these
measures were estimated at $493 billion. The remaining higher in their new or updated NDCs. For example, Mau-
$1,142 billion in reported mitigation requirements were ritania significantly increased its mitigation finance require-
not specified as pertaining to either conditional or uncondi- ments by 2030, from $8.20 billion to $34.26 billion. Other
tional NDC elements. countries have almost doubled their finance requirements:
Ethiopia’s mitigation finance requirements climbed from
Among countries specifying mitigation requirements in
$150 billion to $276 billion by 2030. For some countries,
both initial and new or updated NDCs, the aggregate figure
such as Bangladesh, mitigation finance requirements shot
actually fell by 7 percent, mainly because one country (South
up sixfold. Bangladesh’s estimate increased from $27 billion
Africa) decreased the reported mitigation finance require-
to $176 billion.
ments by approximately $1,300 billion. On the contrary,
excluding this country reveals that stated mitigation finance
requirements for the remaining countries have jumped by

ADAPTATION FINANCE
REQUIREMENTS REPORTED
IN NDCS
For the 62 current NDCs that include adaptation finance
requirements, total adaptation requirements are estimated at
$1,067 billion. Finance requirements associated with con-
ditional adaptation measures are estimated at $236 billion,
and requirements associated with unconditional adaptation
measures are estimated at $36 billion. The remaining $795
billion in adaptation finance requirements are not specified
as either conditional or unconditional.
The adaptation finance requirements reported by countries

in both initial and new and updated NDCs increased by
$327 billion compared to the initial NDCs, an increase of 59
percent. As for adaptation, two factors explain this increase.
First, 22 more countries submitted their adaptation finance
requirements in the current NDCs than in the initial NDCs.
Second, out of a total of 33 countries reporting adaptation
finance requirements in both their initial and new or updated
NDCs, 21 have increased their totals. For example, Uganda’s
stated adaptation finance requirements by 2030 went from
$2.40 billion in its first NDC to $17.70 billion in its updated
submission, a more than seven-fold increase. Pakistan is
another country that significantly increased its adaptation development, transfer, and research as a part of its NDC,
finance requirements. Its initial NDC adaptation finance including technical assistance for climate modeling to sup-
requirements were estimated at $14 billion, which jumped to port adaptation project development.
$140 billion in its updated NDC.
COSTS OF CAPACITY SUMMARY AND

BUILDING AND IMPLICATIONS
More countries now report climate finance in their NDCs.
TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER The number of NDCs that report climate finance require-
In some cases, countries have conditioned the adaptation ments increased from 78 initial NDCs to 89 current NDCs.
and mitigation elements of their NDCs not only with regard The number of NDCs reporting finance requirements spe-
to climate but also to capacity building and technology cific to adaptation and mitigation increased from 51 initial
transfer. These other means of implementation can also be NDCs to 62 current NDCs and from 62 initial NDCs to 70
costed, and some countries have included such costs in their current NDCs, respectively.
NDCs. Tunisia estimated the costs of capacity building at
The current NDCs report a total of $4,282 billion in
$0.7 billion, in addition to adaptation and mitigation finance
climate finance requirements. Adaptation and mitigation
requirements estimated at $2.85 and $14.40, respectively
finance requirements are estimated at $1,067 billion and
(UNFCCC n.d.) Finally, Madagascar has included $1.75
$2,740 billion, respectively. Climate finance requirements
billion in capacity building and $5.62 billion in technology
that are not differentiated between adaptation and mitiga-
96 | WRI.ORG
tion are classified as unspecified and add up to $475 billion. refining total climate finance estimates. Further research
These climate finance figures do not consider costs that some could support the development of a standard methodology
countries have stated as finance needs, such as capacity build- to report climate finance requirements that can contribute to
ing, technology transfer, and, in some cases, L&D. having comparable estimates and condense data that could
be reported through NDC communications.
These findings are constrained by the lack of standard-
ized definitions and methodologies for reporting climate
finance requirements through NDCs or other official
channels. Countries apply different time frames, levels of In some cases, countries
approaches, and disaggregation (e.g., project, activity, action,
sectoral level) when estimating finance requirements. For
have conditioned the
instance, some countries identify needs, investments, or costs adaptation and mitigation
without explaining the scope of actions planned. Indeed, the
fact that including finance in an NDC is voluntary means elements of their NDCs
that many countries do not include it, but this cannot be
interpreted as an indication that they have no climate finance
not only with regard
requirements. Finance requirement figures in NDCs should to finance but also to
therefore be interpreted cautiously. Finance requirements
presented in this report do not intend to fully reflect the capacity building and
finance requirements of all countries since several have stated
in their NDCs that they are still working on identifying and
technology transfer

CHAPTER 6
Conclusion
Across the board, the NDCs are more robust
documents than they were when the Paris
Agreement entered into force in 2016. They contain
more-ambitious GHG reduction targets, which are
broader in scope than before, and they outline
more clearly the sector-specific action that will
support their implementation. They demonstrate
stronger links to planning and implementation
processes. Their adaptation elements include more
adaptation actions in a wider range of sectors
that demonstrate potential to drive transformative
adaptation. A greater number of NDCs report on
climate finance requirements. These factors suggest
that countries have learned from past experience
with NDCs, improved their capacity, and increased
their ambition. Yet massive gaps remain.

INCREMENTAL
IMPROVEMENT, BUT
TRANSFORMATIONAL
CHANGE IS NEEDED
The new and updated NDCs begin to reveal both the example, NAPs) could help advance implementation, and
potential of the Paris “ratchet mechanism” and its limita- the NDCs could provide more international visibility (and
tions. Today’s NDCs are both significantly more ambitious potentially resources) for climate action. Although there is
than their predecessors and woefully inadequate to avert the nothing analogous to NAPs to help design and implement
climate crisis. If the pace of improvement from 2016 to today mitigation strategies, and the level of implementation detail
continues, the world will not only miss the Paris Agreement that countries provide on the mitigation components of their
goals, but it will miss them by a long shot. For the most part, NDCs varies widely, NDCs often contain references to sepa-
the new and updated NDCs represent incremental improve- rate implementation plans that address mitigation. Likewise,
ment, when what is needed is transformational change. the sectoral commitments made at COP26 in Glasgow raise
the question of how action to implement these commitments
The NDCs must also be implemented, and the relation- should be reflected in NDCs. Intuitively, integrating NDC
ship between NDCs and implementation is not yet well development with implementation planning should improve
understood. Relative to the initial NDCs, the current NDCs implementation outcomes, yet implementation is constrained
are more connected to implementation documents, such as by many factors. These include institutional capacity, access
NAPs, and identify many more sectoral measures to support to finance, and domestic political economy. Further investi-
implementation. Yet major gaps in implementation-related gation into the boundaries of an NDC’s influence on these
elements persist. A majority of sectoral measures identified factors is merited. Likewise, it will be important to under-
are vague, lacking concrete, time-bound targets. Informa- stand the relationship between reporting on progress towards
tion on MEL, which could support improved implementa- NDCs and advancing their implementation.
tion over time, is scarce. Although NDC transparency has
improved, some NDCs still lack information against which How can NDCs help drive transformative action on adap-
progress on implementing emissions targets can be quanti- tation and mitigation? Nearly 60 NDCs include priority
fied and tracked. adaptation actions with transformative elements. Although
a similar analysis is not available for mitigation, the rela-
tively modest emissions reductions achieved by the new and
QUESTIONS FOR FURTHER updated NDCs, relative to the emissions gap, suggest that
INVESTIGATION they are not yet playing a transformative role for mitigation.
Adaptation components require further elaboration in this
Our analysis brings forward a suite of insights pertaining to area as well. Many updated NDCs include adaptation actions
the mitigation, adaptation, and finance contents of NDCs. with transformative potential, but countries rarely engage
Yet the findings, in some ways, raise as many questions as with transformation or long-term adaptation pathways
they answer. The following questions, stemming from our directly, suggesting transformative action is not yet main-
findings, merit further consideration by researchers, funders, streamed in NDC development. How might NDCs advance
policymakers, and others. transformative climate action and how might governments
and funders leverage their investments in the NDCs to
What role do NDCs play—and should they play—in a
advance such a vision?
country’s climate policy landscape? Dixit et al. (2022) argue
that “instead of viewing the . . . NDC as a stand-alone or What causes countries to enhance their ambition, and
parallel planning document, countries should strengthen its under what circumstances does this result in enhanced
links with other plans and processes.” They note that stron- implementation? For example, consulting a wider range
ger links to more comprehensive planning instruments (for of stakeholders in NDC development has the potential to
100 | WRI.ORG
enhance ambition by enabling the identification of a wider
range of actions in a wider range of sectors. This same
engagement may also improve the likelihood of successful
implementation (NDC Partnership 2022). Yet although
many countries engaged in such a process, others did not,
and the overall emissions impact of expanding sectoral
coverage was modest. The question of why some countries
choose to undertake such a process or enhance their ambi-
tion in other ways but others do not remains open. Also
unclear is the extent to which NDC ambition drives imple-
mentation and/or implementation drives ambition, and the
extent to which both outcomes stem from the same set of
underlying factors.
What causes countries to backtrack in the content and

form of their NDC commitments? Most countries are
strengthening both the form and content of NDC commit-
ments (increasing their scope to cover new sectors and gases,
improving the level of sector-specific detail, and adopting
more ambitious targets), but some are doing the opposite.
They have weakened their GHG mitigation targets, reduced
the number of sectors and gases covered by their targets,
or eliminated references to sector-specific commitments. finance requirements, and this prevents a granular analysis on
This dynamic can be seen in the adaptation components as how countries arrived at these estimates and how to compare
well, with numerous countries reducing or removing prior- data generated at different times and in different countries.
ity adaptation actions from their latest NDC submissions.
Why do they do this? Does this necessarily reflect reduced
ambition? If so, what causes this? Possibilities include NDC AMBITION AND
implementation challenges, difficulties accessing finance, or
changes to domestic political economy. Could it instead stem IMPLEMENTATION MUST
from improved data or analysis (for example, baseline projec- ACCELERATE
tions) or the recognition that the data or analysis necessary
to support the original commitment do not exist? Is it linked Both NDC ambition and implementation will need to accel-
to the actual or expected availability of international sup- erate dramatically over the remainder of this decade—and
port? These questions are beyond the scope of this report but beyond—to keep the goals of the Paris Agreement within
merit investigation. reach. Ideally, the 2023 global stocktake and the GGA will
serve as an opportunity to reflect on the findings and ques-
What are the methodologies used by countries to estimate tions highlighted by this report, with a view towards extract-
climate finance requirements? The number of NDCs ing actionable lessons from the first round of NDC updates.
reporting climate finance requirements has increased in the The next round of NDCs will come due nine months in
latest round of NDCs. Further, more NDCs are disaggregat- advance of COP30—that is, in early 2025, if all goes to plan.
ing finance requirements between adaptation and mitigation, Countries will therefore shortly need to turn their attention
conditional and unconditional, rather than providing only to strengthening their next round of commitments even as
aggregate totals or identifying only international finance they implement the commitments they have already made.
required. However, NDC communications do not include Addressing these questions as a community will help ensure
a reference to the type of methodology applied to estimate that their efforts are well targeted.

Appendix
APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ON DATA AND METHODS
NDC Submissions Considered
Table A1 provides further detail on the categorization of initial,
new and updated, and current NDCs in this report.
TABLE A1 | Submissions Considered in the Initial, New and Updated, and Current NDCs
COUNTRY SUBMISSION STATUS DOCUMENT CATEGORIZED AS DOCUMENT CATEGORIZED AS DOCUMENT CATEGORIZED AS

INITIAL NDC NEW AND UPDATED NDC CURRENT NDC
Countries submitting an updated First NDC Updated first NDC or second NDC Updated first NDC or second NDC
first NDC or second NDC by the
cut-off date
Countries submitting a first NDC and INDC First NDC First NDC
not submitting an updated first NDC (first NDC for adaptation analysis)
or second NDC between December
31, 2019, and the cut-off date
Countries not submitting any NDC First NDC N/A First NDC
between December 31, 2019, and the
cut-off date
n documents as of 167 139 (Emissions Impacts 167
the cut-off date and Finance) ; 128 (Key
Characteristics of Mitigation
Measures and Sector-Specific
Mitigation Measures); 123
(Adaptation)
Notes: INDC = intended nationally determined contribution; NDC = nationally determined contribution.
Source: Authors based on Climate Watch (2022).
102 | WRI.ORG
Emissions Targets
Emissions impact Other mitigation contribution analysis
The aggregate impact of the new and updated NDCs on global Analysis of countries’ mitigation contribution type, scope and
GHG emissions in 2030 is derived from data collected under coverage, conditionality, and stated intent to use international
the Climate Watch NDC Enhancement Tracker (WRI 2022) market mechanisms is based on data collected under the
based on the methodology outlined in Fransen et al. (2021a). Climate Watch NDC Explorer, as follows. The process for
This data set contains each country’s 2030 emissions under its translating the raw data collected by Climate Watch to the cat-
previous NDC and, where applicable, under its new or updated egories quantified in the report is further detailed in Table A2.
NDC. We use these figures to calculate the difference between Mitigation contribution type: Each NDC is categorized as being
each country’s economy-wide emissions under its initial NDC based on a GHG target, a non-GHG target, or actions only.
and under its current NDC.
GHG target type: Each NDC is categorized as containing a
For most NDCs, this approach generates values comparable base-year target, a baseline scenario target, another type of
to other related analyses, including CAT (2021) and UNEP GHG target (including fixed-level targets, intensity targets, and
(2021b). A notable exception is China. There, the Climate Watch trajectory targets), or no GHG target.
data set drew on Yang et al. (2020), which generated a larger
Sectoral coverage: Each NDC containing a GHG target is
difference between China’s initial and updated NDC than other
categorized as covering all IPCC sectors including LULUCF,
international sources, and aligned more closely with He (2020).
all IPCC sectors excluding LULUCF, a subset of IPCC sectors,
We aggregate the 2030 emissions difference for each or as not specifying sectoral coverage. The IPCC sectors are
country into a global emissions difference figure. Aggregate energy, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), waste,
figures exclude “hot air” following the approach outlined in agriculture, and LULUCF. Targets covering AFOLU are consid-
Meinshausen et al. (2022). In this context, “hot air” refers to ered to cover both agriculture and LULUCF.
pledged 2030 emissions that exceed a country’s business-as-
GHG coverage: Each NDC containing a GHG target is catego-
usual trajectory (defined as the mean SSP5 baseline scenarios
rized as covering all Kyoto gases (including NF3), all Kyoto
in the downscaled dataset provided by Gütschow et al. 2021,
gases (excluding NF3), a subset of Kyoto gases, or not specify-
adjusted for LULUCF). In other words, these pledges will not,
ing gas coverage.
in practice, reduce emissions, even if they are nominally more
ambitious than previous pledges. We also use SSP5 baseline Emissions coverage of GHG targets: Emissions coverage is
figures as a proxy for 2030 emissions for countries whose based on 2018 figures from the Climate Watch Historical GHG
NDCs do not contain targets or emissions figures. Emissions module. Emissions from agriculture, energy, IPPU,
LULUCF, and waste are considered, as are emissions of CO2,
CH4, N2O, and fluorinated (F) gases. (Climate Watch does not

distinguish among F-gases; NDCs covering any F-gas are ▪ NDCs that cover partial gases and all sectors including
assigned the corresponding country’s full F-gas value. F-gases or excluding LULUCF are assigned the sum of the corre-
constitute a small fraction of each country’s emissions.) NDCs sponding country’s total emissions from each covered gas
whose sector coverage is not specified are assumed to cover (including or excluding LULUCF, respectively)
all sectors; this approach was corroborated by a review of the
relevant NDCs. NDCs with no GHG target are assigned an
▪ NDCs that cover partial gases and partial sectors are
assigned the sum of the corresponding country’s emis-
emissions coverage of zero. sions of each covered gas from each covered sector
Emissions coverage for NDCs with a GHG target are
Conditionality: Each NDC is categorized as being fully uncon-
assigned as follows:
ditional, fully conditional, partially conditional, or not specified.
▪ NDCs that cover all gases and all sectors including or Intended use of international market mechanisms: Each NDC
excluding LULUCF are assigned the corresponding is categorized as stating it will or may use international
country’s total GHG emissions (including or excluding market mechanisms, will not use international market
LULUCF, respectively) mechanisms, or not specifying an intent to use international
▪ NDCs that cover all gases and partial sectors are assigned market mechanisms.
the sum of the corresponding country’s total emissions
from each covered sector
TABLE A2 |Climate Watch Indicators Used to Analyze Each NDC’s Mitigation Contribution, Conditionality,
and Market Mechanisms
INDICATOR DEFINITION CATEGORICAL VALUES NOTES

document Type of document INDC, first NDC, updated first NDC, Used to identify which document represents each country’s new or
second NDC (archived), second updated NDC, its previous NDC, and its current NDC (regardless of
NDC, revised first NDC (archived), whether it has submitted a new or updated NDC)
revised first NDC (interim)
mitigation_ Label for mitigation GHG target, GHG target and non- Used as the default value for mitigation contribution type but simplified
contribution_ contribution type; only GHG target, non-GHG target only, into three categories:
type_label applicable to top-line non-GHG target and actions, actions ■ GHG target: Any NDC with a GHG target is counted under this category,
targets only regardless of whether it also includes non-GHG target(s) and/or
actions
■ Non-GHG target: Any NDC that does not have a GHG target but has a
non-GHG target is counted under this category, regardless of whether
it also includes actions
■ Actions only: NDCs not counted in either of the other two categories
are counted in this category
mitigation_ Mitigation contribution N/A Used to populate mitigation_contribution_type_label where the latter
contribution_ type; only applicable to is not provided by Climate Watch
type top-line targets
ghg_target_ Label for type of GHG Baseline scenario target, base-year This indicator was simplified into four categories:
type_label target target, fixed-level target, intensity ■ Base-year target
target, trajectory target, multiple
target types, no GHG target ■ Baseline scenario target
■ Other GHG target type (includes fixed-level targets, intensity targets,
and trajectory targets)
■ No GHG target
ghg_target_ Type of GHG target N/A Used to populate ghg_target_type_label where the latter is not
type provided by Climate Watch
104 | WRI.ORG
TABLE A2 |Climate Watch Indicators Used to Analyze Each NDC’s Mitigation Contribution, Conditionality,
and Market Mechanisms (Cont.)
INDICATOR DEFINITION CATEGORICAL VALUES NOTES

coverage_ Label for sectors All sectors including LULUCF, all Used as the default value for sectoral coverage
sectors_label covered sectors excluding LULUCF, partial
sectors, not specified
coverage_ Sectors covered N/A Used to populate coverage_sectors _label where the latter is not
sectors_short provided by Climate Watch
coverage_ Sectors covered N/A Used to populate coverage_sectors _label where the latter is not
sectors provided by Climate Watch
coverage_gas_ Label for GHG coverage Seven Kyoto gases, six Kyoto gases, Used as the default value for gas coverage
label Kyoto gases and black carbon,
partial gases, not specified
coverage_gas GHG coverage (chemical N/A Used to populate coverage_gas _label where the latter is not provided
notations) by Climate Watch
coverage_ghg GHGs covered (text or N/A Used to populate coverage_gas _label where the latter is not provided
quotes from document) by Climate Watch
conditionality_ Label for conditionality Unconditional NDC only, conditional Used as the default value for conditionality; simplified into the following
label NDC and unconditional NDC, categories:
conditional NDC only, partially ■ Unconditional NDC only
conditional NDC (unspecified mix of
domestic/international resources), ■ Conditional NDC only
not specified ■ Conditional NDC and unconditional NDC
■ Not specified
method_imm_ Label for planned use Yes/possible, no, not specified Used as the default value for intended use of international market
label of international market mechanisms
mechanisms
Notes: GHG = greenhouse gas; INDC = intended nationally determined contribution; LULUCF = land use, land-use change, and forestry; NDC = intended nationally determined
contribution.
Sector-Specific Mitigation Measures

Overview of sector-specific mitigation
measures
For the number of NDCs with measures in each sector in the Forests
overview, any NDC with either a sectoral plan, target, policy, Using Climate Watch data, countries were classified as having
or action in Climate Watch’s sectoral data was included. See an LULUCF measure within their NDC if they included either
Table A4 for definitions of the different categories of measures. a target, action, policy, or plan related to LULUCF. These
For the number of NDCs with targets in each sector, any NDC measures include subcategories of afforestation, conserva-
with a measure that was classified as a target for that sector tion, REDD+, reforestation, sustainable forest management,
was included. For the number of NDCs with measures and and sustainable land management. Climate Watch data were
targets in the buildings and industry sectors, countries with also used for classifying the number of NDCs with GHG and
measures or targets in the energy subsectors “demand-side non-GHG targets.
efficiency: buildings” and “demand-side efficiency: industry”
were included (see Table A3 for a list of subsectors).

To distinguish all targets from GHG targets, the data was fil- Measures pertaining to fossil-based power generation are
tered using the tags M_SecTar1 (“Sectoral Targets”), M_SecTar4 identified based on a combination of keywords (thermal, coal,
(“Emissions Reduction Potential”), M_SecTar8 (“Unconditional oil, natural gas, or including gas while excluding greenhouse
Target”), and M_SecTar10 (“Conditional Target”). Once filtered, and biogas) and manual review. Fossil-based measures were
the response text for each entry was reviewed to determine further categorized based on ResponseText contents into the
whether or not the target should be categorized as a GHG following categories: fuel switch: fossil to fossil, fuel switch:
target. In instances where countries included a non-GHG fossil to clean, improve fossil efficiency, new fossil infrastruc-
target (i.e., 10,000 hectares of restoration) as well as an associ- ture, phase out/down, reduce methane, mixed effects (contains
ated emissions reduction potential but did not specifically multiple of the aforementioned categories), and unclear. To
include a GHG target they aim to achieve, countries were not determine the countries with measures related to phase out/
classified as having a GHG target. Employing this assumption down, keywords such as phase out, phasing out, eliminate, coal,
in the report makes the number of NDCs with GHG targets a and fossil fuel were also used in the web version of Climate
conservative estimate. This method was used for both the first Watch along with the UNFCCC NDC Registry.
NDC submission as well as the new and updated NDCs to Measures pertaining to renewable power generation are iden-
compare the number of GHG targets between the two periods. tified by selecting all subsectors related to renewable energy.
To categorize measures between protection, management, Measures pertaining to power generation efficiency are
and restoration, key terms were used to capture the relevant identified by selecting the following subsectors: supply-side
measures. For conservation, the terms conserve, protect, efficiency; supply-side efficiency: grid/energy loss reduction;
and deforest were used. For restoration, the terms plantation, supply-side efficiency: power generation efficiency improve-
reforest, afforest, and rehabilit were used. And for manage- ments; supply-side efficiency: cogeneration; and supply-side
ment, the term manag was used. For each of the categories, efficiency: gas-powered combined cycle.
the terms were cross-referenced with the subsector listed
above to ensure appropriate coverage for each category. Transport
The subsectors of grasslands, wetlands, and peatlands were The transport sector assesses NDC measures related to
used in each instance to include complete coverage of sector reducing emissions from personal vehicles, electrification,
measures. After the NDCs were categorized, the response text transport-related infrastructure development, and shifting
was reviewed for the countries that were not included in each transport demand to public modes and active mobility (walk-
category to ensure relevant measures were not omitted. ing, cycling). Data for this section were collected from GIZ
and SLOCAT’s Tracker of Climate Strategies for Transport and
Power
were cross-checked with Climate Watch’s NDC Enhancement
Power sector measures include the subset of energy subsec- Tracker to ensure consistency throughout the report. Mitiga-
tors pertaining to electricity generation, transmission and tion areas of action were filtered to relevant documents—“1st
distribution, and other power sector measures as noted in NDC,” 2nd NDC,” “Updated NDC”—to determine which coun-
Table A3. Energy end-use interventions (i.e., those catego- tries have relevant transport measures in their documents.
rized under the buildings, transport, and industry sectors)
All categorization for the transport sector, such as NDC
are not included.
measures considered under “electrification,” are derived from
Targets and measures for the power sector are identified as the categorization of parameters within the data set. The
follows. Targets for the power sector are identified based on data set uses direct quotes from NDCs to track mitigation
the tags M_SecTar1 (“Sectoral Targets”), M_SecTar4 (“Emis- measures across avoid-shift-improve actions; therefore, it
sions Reduction Potential”), M_SecTar8 (“Unconditional may be assumed that any missing data indicate that certain
Target”), and M_SecTar10 (“Conditional Target”). GHG and countries do not mention transport or transportation within
non-GHG targets are distinguished based on keywords (CO 2, their national documents.
emission) and manual review. Nontarget measures are identi-
The total number of countries including transport mitigation
fied based on the tags M_SecAct1, M_SecAct2, M_SecAct9,
was determined by counting all countries included in the data
M_SecAct11, M_SecPol2, M_SecPol3, M_SecPo10, M_SecPol12,
set. (The data set excludes countries whose NDCs do not con-
M_SecGen3, M_SecGen8, and M_SecGen10.
106 | WRI.ORG
tain transport mitigation measures.) For further classification, emissions. We considered an NDC to contain a CH4 -relevant
countries were counted for each parameter, distinguishing policy if it contained one or more measures in the following
whether they included a measurable, quantitative target or not. subsectors: livestock; gas field development; gas flaring;
Parameters included under electrification include I_Emobil- gas pipelines; gas processing; gas-to-power; renewable
ity, I_Emobilitycharging, and I_Emobilitypurchase. Emissions energy: biofuels; renewable energy: recycling/reuse/reduce;
reduction measures include I_Altfuels, I_Vehicleimprove, waste-to-energy; solid waste; waste: general; and wastewa-
I_Hydrogen, I_Biofuel, I_Efficiencystd, I_Fuelqualimprove, ter. We also considered a subset of measures in additional
I_Freighteff, I_Vehicleeff, I_Shipeff, and I_ethanol. Public subsectors on the basis of keyword searches and additional
transportation measures include those under S_PublicTrans- assessment. From the agriculture: general subsector, we
port and S_BRT. Active mobility measures include those identified CH4 -relevant measures on the basis of a keyword
categorized as S_Activemobility, S_Cycling, S_Walking, and search for enteric fermentation, livestock, manure, rice, and
S_Micromobility. Micromobility is included because it pertains methane. From the energy: general subsector, we identified
to only Samoa’s NDC calling for shared electric micromobility. CH4 -relevant measures on the basis of a keyword search for
Lastly, GHG emissions targets are sourced from the “Targets” methane, coal mine, and coal mining. From the gas subsector,
sheet within the data set and filtered for transport-sector after getting results from our keyword search—which included
specific targets rather than economy-wide targets. CH4 , flaring, leakage, fugitive emissions, and conservation—we
inspected each measure to determine whether it was likely
Methane
to reduce emissions from natural gas. We did not consider
The share of Global Methane Pledge signatories and nonsig- measures in the gas subsector geared towards increasing gas
natories including CH4 within the scope of an economy-wide exploration and production because these would be likely to
GHG reduction target is based on the gas coverage indicators increase CH4 emissions.
from Climate Watch’s NDC Explorer, as detailed in Table A2.
The measures collected for the subsectors identified in Table
To determine the share of signatories and nonsignatories A3 were used to determine the total number of NDCs with
with CH4 -relevant policies, we identified the subsectors listed measures for each sector.
in Table A3 that correspond to significant sources of CH4
TABLE A3 | Climate Watch Sectors and Subsectors for Mitigation Measures
SUBSECTORS NOTES
Agricultural Waste
Agriculture: General Included in methane section; measures related to rice cultivation, manure management,
and enteric fermentation
Agriculture
Climate smart agriculture

Fertilizers
Fisheries and aquaculture
Livestock Included in methane section
Soils
Buildings
Buildings: general

TABLE A3 | Climate Watch Sectors and Subsectors for Mitigation Measures (Cont.)
SUBSECTORS NOTES
Associated gas
CCS
Clean cooking and heating
Clean cooking and heating: cleaner household fuels
Clean cooking and heating: efficient cookstoves
Demand-side efficiency
Demand-side efficiency: appliances
Demand-side efficiency: buildings Included in count of measures related to buildings sector
Demand-side efficiency: cities
Demand-side efficiency: industries Included in count of measures related to industry sector
Demand-side efficiency: tourism
Energy: general Included in power section; measures related to coal mining included in methane section
Energy efficiency
Gas Included in power section; subset included in methane section, eliminating measures that
would increase gas production or consumption (as these would not be expected to reduce
methane emissions)
Gas field development Included in methane section
Energy
Gas flaring Included in methane section

Gas pipelines Included in methane section
Gas processing Included in methane section
Gas-to-power Included in power section; included in methane section
Mini-grids Included in power section
Renewable energy Included in power section
Renewable energy: biofuels Included in methane section
Renewable energy: geothermal Included in power section
Renewable energy: hydro Included in power section
Renewable energy: ocean Included in power section
Renewable energy: off-grid Included in power section
Renewable energy: solar Included in power section
Renewable energy: solar: off-grid Included in power section
Renewable energy: solar: utility scale Included in power section
Renewable energy: waste-to-energy Included in power section
Renewable energy: wind Included in power section
108 | WRI.ORG
SUBSECTORS NOTES
Supply-side efficiency Included in power section
Supply-side efficiency: grid/energy loss reduction Included in power section
Supply-side efficiency: power generation efficiency Included in power section
improvement
Energy
improvement: cogeneration plants

improvement: fuel switching
improvement: gas-powered combined cycle
improvement: rehabilitation
Air conditioners and refrigerators
Cement
Chemicals
Industry
HFCs
Industries: general
Iron and steel
Paper
SLCPs
Afforestation
Conservation
Grasslands
LULUCF/forestry: general
Peatlands
LULUCF
REDD+
Reforestation
Sustainable forest management
Sustainable land management
Wetlands

SUBSECTORS NOTES
Aviation Included under aviation
BRT Included under public transport
Freight regulation
Freight vehicles Included under freight
Fuels in freight transport
Inland waterways
Inter-urban transport
Maritime Included under shipping
Non-motorized transport Included under active mobility
Public transport Included under public transport
Transporta
Rail Included under public transport

Road sector Included under overview
Suburban rail
Transit-oriented development The creation of compact, walkable, pedestrian-oriented, mixed-use communities centered
around high-quality train systems, where people are not dependent on private vehicles for
transportation
Transport: general
Transportation fuels
Transportation infrastructure
Transportation planning Included under overview
Urban transport
Vehicle fleet Included under e-mobility
Recycling, reuse, reduce Included in methane section
Solid waste Included in methane section
Waste
Waste: general Included in methane section

Waste-to-energy Included in methane section
Wastewater Included in methane section
Notes: BRT = bus rapid transit; HFC = hydrofluorocarbon; LULUCF = land use, land-use change, and forestry; REDD+ = reducing emissions from deforestation and forest
degradation, plus the sustainable management of forest and the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks; SLCP = short-lived climate pollutant.
Climate Watch data were used to determine the number of NDCs with measures in the transport sector for the “Overview of Sector-Specific Measures” section. The Tracker of
Climate Strategies for Transport (GIZ and SLOCAT 2022) was used as the primary data set for the transport deep dive. The notes related to the transport subsectors listed above
refer to how we compared the two data sets.
Source: Authors based on Climate Watch (2022) and GIZ and SLOCAT (2022).
110 | WRI.ORG
TABLE A4 | Climate Watch Indicators for Sectoral Mitigation Measures
INDICATOR INDICATOR NAME DEFINITION NOTES

M_SecGen3 Sectoral Plans Plans are broader than specific policies Included under “other measures”
or projects, such as a general intention to
“improve efficiency,” “develop renewable
energy,” etc.
M_SecGen8 Unconditional Part Unconditional part of sectoral plan Included under “other measures”
M_SecGen10 Conditional Part Conditional part of sectoral plan Included under “other measures”
M_SecTar1 Sectoral Targets Targets are an intention to achieve a specific Included under “targets”
result; for example, to reduce greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions to a specific level (a
GHG target) or increase energy efficiency or
renewable energy to a specific level (a non-
GHG target), typically by a certain date
M_SecTar8 Unconditional Part Unconditional part of sectoral target Included under “targets”
M_SecTar10 Conditional Part Conditional part of sectoral target Included under “targets”
M_SecPol2 Existing Sectoral Policies A policy that is already in effect; policies are Included under “other measures”
larger in scale than projects, typically national
legislation or high-level strategy documents
M_SecPol3 Upstream Policies Policies are larger in scale than projects, Included under “other measures”
typically national legislation or high-level
strategy documents
M_SecPol10 Unconditional Part Unconditional part of sectoral policy Included under “other measures”
M_SecPol12 Conditional Part Conditional part of sectoral policy Included under “other measures”
M_SecAct1 Building on Existing Downstream A measure to continue or expand a previous Included under “other measures”
Actions action; actions are an intention to implement
specific means of achieving GHG reductions,
such as specific projects or narrowly defined
measures
M_SecAct2 Downstream Actions Actions are an intention to implement specific Included under “other measures”
means of achieving GHG reductions, such as
specific projects or narrowly defined measures
M_SecAct9 Unconditional Part Unconditional part of sectoral action Included under “other measures”
M_SecAct11 Conditional Part Conditional part of sectoral action Included under “other measures”

Just Transition
The authors chose to search for explicit use of “just transition” As mentioned in Chapter 2, 3 of the 19 parties whose most
within NDCs, as searching for just transition sans quotes recent NDCs were not on Climate Watch had included just
results in a list of 88 of 197 parties and therefore captured transition within their NDCs. These were Mauritania, Nigeria,
parties that were using just and transition separately instead and Pakistan. It is also important to note that although South
of together as a concept. Thus, the use of similar terms or Africa included the term in its 2015 INDC as well as in its
policies that would be consistent with a just transition but are revised first NDC in 2021, it is only counted as one NDC
not labeled as such are not included in this analysis. in this analysis.
For NDCs that were not in English, Google Translate was used
to translate search results. For NDCs in Spanish, “transición
justa” was searched for, and for NDCs in French, “transition
juste” was searched for within the NDCs.
ABBREVIATIONS
AFOLU agriculture, forestry, and other land use MEL monitoring, evaluation, and learning
CH4 methane Mha million hectares
COP Conference of the Parties Mt megaton
CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent NAP national adaptation plan
EV electric vehicle NbS nature-based solutions
F fluorinated NDC nationally determined contribution
GGA Global Goal on Adaptation NF 3
nitrogen trifluoride
GHG greenhouse gas N2O nitrous oxide
GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale PFC perfluorochemical
Zusammenarbeit (German Agency for REDD+ reducing emissions from deforestation
International Cooperation) and forest degradation, plus the sustainable
Gt gigaton management of forest and the conservation
G20 Group of Twenty and enhancement of forest carbon stocks
HFC hydrofluorocarbon SDG Sustainable Development Goals
INDC intended nationally determined contribution SF6

sulfur hexafluoride
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SIDS small island developing states
IPLC Indigenous peoples and local communities SLOCAT Partnership on Sustainable, Low
Carbon Transport
IPPU industrial processes and product use
TDM transport demand management
L&D losses and damages
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention
LCD least developed country
on Climate Change
LULUCF land use, land-use change, and forestry
112 | WRI.ORG
ENDNOTES
1. The European Union’s NDC represents 27 countries 10. This methodological decision affects the Marshall Islands and
and 28 Parties. Argentina, which submitted second NDCs with adaptation
information in 2018 and 2020, respectively. The updates to
2. This determination is made following the method used by these documents (submitted in 2020 and 2021, respectively)
Meinshausen et al. (2022). contained new information relevant only to mitigation commit-
ments, and the decision was made to include the countries’
3. The authors identified current or expected economic costs 2018 and 2020 NDCs in the adaptation data set to retain the
listed in the NDCs, and incurred by countries as a result of adaptation information therein, which is considered their
climate change impacts or extreme events, as economic L&D. latest active NDC adaptation components for the purpose
This information is not standardized across NDC submissions of this analysis.
and may be explicitly presented as L&D, or it may be included
alongside information on climate change trends and impacts. 11. Parts of this section were previously published as an online
article, “Making Sense of Countries’ Paris Agreement Climate
4. See, for example, remarks from COP26 president Alok Sharma Pledges,” by Taryn Fransen (2021).
(paraphrasing COP27 president Sameh Shoukry; COP26
Presidency 2022) and remarks from Rania Al-Mashat, Egypt’s 12. This refers to countries that have specified measures in their
minister for international cooperation (Harvey 2022). NDC documents in each sector rather than the sectoral cover-
age of their NDC’s GHG target. A country may intend to carry
5. This section has been adapted from Fransen et al. (2017). out interventions in certain sectors to achieve its GHG target
but not include those details in its NDC document.
6. This report distinguishes between capitalized Loss and Dam-
age to refer to political debates under the United Nations 13. REDD+, a climate mitigation strategy based on results-based
Framework Convention on Climate Change and to countries’ payments, stands for “reducing emissions from deforestation
climate finance requirements as stated in their NDCs and and forest degradation, plus the sustainable management
lowercased losses and damages (L&D) to refer to observed of forest and the conservation and enhancement of forest
impacts and projected risks from climate change. carbon stocks.”
7. At the date of writing, all UNFCCC Parties had joined the Paris 14. Measures can potentially be coded as both fossil-generation
Agreement except for Eritrea, Iran, Libya, and Yemen, which measures and supply efficiency measures. Of the 173 initial
had signed but not yet joined. and current supply efficiency measures, 36 are also coded as
fossil-generation measures.
8. At the date of publication, 12 additional countries—Indone-
sia, Egypt, Gabon, Dominica, Haiti, Guatemala, Côte d’Ivoire, 15. Whereas the original working paper by Dixit et al. (2022)
Bolivia, India, Serbia, Central African Republic, and El Salva- analyzed 86 countries with updated NDCs submitted by June
dor—had submitted new or updated NDCs after December 2021, this update includes 123 countries that submitted new
31, 2021. Australia, Brazil, Sudan, Uganda, United Kingdom, and updated NDCs by December 2021. By comparing these
United Arab Emirates, and Vanuatu had submitted second updated NDCs to the same countries’ first NDC submissions
updates. These NDCs are not considered in this analy- in 2015, this section aims to provide a more comprehensive
sis, except in the Emissions Impact and Finance chapters. updated analysis of NDC adaptation components using the
Sudan’s most recent submission was initially dated October 5, same framework. Additionally, this section also includes 44
2022, and later backdated to September 22, 2022. This latest countries that only submitted first NDCs by December 2021 in
submission is not considered in the Finance section. order to present a more complete picture of NDC adaptation
commitments to date. For figures, data from these 44 coun-
9. INDCs are counted as initial NDCs for five countries: Brunei, tries are shown alongside both first and updated NDC data to
Iraq, the Philippines, Russia, and Senegal. These countries reflect that these documents simultaneously come from the
submitted first NDCs in 2020 and 2021 that were different from first round of submissions and represent these countries’ cur-
their INDCs. For the same countries, first NDCs are consid- rent NDCs as well as to preserve the changes found between
ered as new and updated NDCs. first and updated NDC submissions.

16. The IPCC defines transformative adaptation as actions 20. The elements of equity analyzed in this section are gender
“seek[ing] to change the fundamental attributes of systems in equity and the inclusion of Indigenous people. However, this
response to actual or expected climate and its effects, often is not a comprehensive assessment of equity in the NDCs,
at a scale and ambition greater than incremental activities. It and the authors recognize the diverse meaning of equity in
includes changes in activities, such as changing livelihoods different contexts. Other elements of equity not included in
from cropping to livestock or by migrating to take up a liveli- this analysis, such as youth inclusion and the use of com-
hood elsewhere, and also changes in our perceptions and mon but differentiated responsibilities, could be the topic of
paradigms about the nature of climate change, adaptation, future research.
and their relationship to other natural and human systems”
(IPCC 2014). The authors used the IPCC framework in tandem 21. This report distinguishes between capitalized Loss and
with previous WRI work on transformative adaptation in the Damage to refer to political debates under the UNFCCC and
food and nutrition security critical system to create a working to countries’ climate finance requirements as stated in their
definition of transformative adaptation actions based on the NDCs and lowercased losses and damages (L&D) to refer to
IPCC definition. The authors consider actions to be trans- observed impacts and projected risks from climate change.
formative if they seek to create systemic change through an
expansion in scale, address changes in the overall system, 22. The IPCC report does not provide a figure associated with
include innovation, or include a shift in location in response to limiting warming to 1.5°C.
climate change (Carter et al. 2018).
17. The authors recognize that the findings related to the NDC
development process and stakeholder engagement may have
broader implications than for the NDC adaptation component
alone. Although these indicators may extend beyond the
scope of adaptation, the collection of this data was conducted
as part of a methodology for examining NDC adaptation
components and therefore should not be applied outside
of this context.
18. Completed NAPs only reflect final documents that countries

have submitted to the UNFCCC. The NAP process may be
ongoing for countries that have not yet submitted a final
document.
19. The financing adaptation critical system refers to actions that

(i) shift how investment decisions get made, (ii) scale up and
deploy public finance more effectively, (iii) scale contingent
finance and insurance, and (iv) harness private capital for
resilience. The category does not refer to conditional or un-
conditional costing of adaptation actions or to broad financial
needs for the adaptation component—these are captured in
separate indicators. More details on this methodology are
available in Dixit et al. (2022).
114 | WRI.ORG
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REPORT

45 Sector-Specific Mitigation Measures 112 Abbreviations

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 1

From this report, it is clear countries must do much

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 3

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 5

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 7

Submitted; not comparable to initial NDC No data

Targets Other measures

Land use, land-use change, and forestry

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Note: NDC = nationally determined contribution.

More countries are committing to electric mobility, but

The next round of NDC updates offers an opportunity for

The number of NDCs that explicitly address the concept

FIGURE ES-3 | References to Other National Plans and International Frameworks

Identifies coordination with other development or climate change processes

Identifies adaptation plans and policies at national/sectoral level

Identifies adaptation plans and policies at subnational level

Includes references to other international frameworks and/or conventions

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Note: NDC = nationally determined contribution.

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 13

Food and nutrition security

Disaster risk management

Locally led adaptation

Cities and urban areas

Number of priority adaptation actions

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 15

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 17

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 19

▪ To serve as a reference document on NDC content

▪ To serve as a data-driven input to strategic discussions

▪ To inform subsequent NDCs, including the 2025

The report contributes to a growing body of NDC literature

Data and Methods

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 23

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 25

▪ Losses and damages assesses whether L&D and related

▪ Transformative adaptation assesses the extent to which

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 29

Collectively, the new and updated NDCs aim to reduce

Submitted; not comparable to initial NDC No data

Type of emissions targets and

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 31

FIGURE B2.1 | Types of Mitigation Contributions

Non-GHG Policies and

FIGURE 2 | Mitigation Commitments in Initial versus Current NDCs

Initial NDCs Current NDCs

Notes: GHG = greenhouse gas; NDC = nationally determined contribution.

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 33

GHG target Non-GHG target Actions

The Paris Agreement states that developed countries should

Initial NDCs Current NDCs

Notes: GHG = greenhouse gas; NDC = nationally determined contribution.

The State of Nationally Determined Contributions: 2022 | 35

Covers land use, land-use change, and forestry

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Initial NDCs Current NDCs