Thinking the Future

The ‘radical uncertainty’ faced by international NGOs

Forecasting COVID-19 Algorithmic Alchemy What’s trust got to do with it?

How do you predict the course of Tim Harford on the datasets that Distrust and disengagement in
a pandemic? shape our world Brazilian politics
Page 14 Page 18 Page 20
 Issue 20
Nuffield College Magazine
Issue 20, 2020 Contents
Editors: Catherine Farfan,
Alumni Relations and
Communications Manager;

College & Alumni News

Caroline Kukura, Director of
Development; Monica Esposito-
West, Senior Development
Executive; and Charlotte
Madden, Alumni Engagement
Letter from the Warden
Page 4
and Development Officer.

For any enquiries about this

College News
Page 5
magazine, including our
alumni events and fundraising
plans, please contact the
Talking Points
Page 10
Development Office.

+44 (0)1865 288691

Books By Fellows
Page 12 Page 10
[email protected]
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Time Machine
Page 13
The Development Office Page 13
Nuffield College, New Road,
Oxford, OX11NF
Photo Gallery
Page 36
You can follow us on:
/OxfordNuffieldCollege
Alumni Announcements
Page 39
@NuffieldCollege
Nuffield College Society
/nuffield

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Reading List
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 LETTER FROM
THE WARDEN
A
t Nuffield, as for institutions and
people around the world, the
last year has been dominated
by COVID-19. Despite the complete
change in the way we have all worked,
research and teaching have carried
on to a remarkable degree, and online
events, not least for alumni, have made
it possible to stay in touch with one
another. Throughout this period, the
commitment and professionalism of
those working to look after us all, from grow. The forecasting techniques using
IT to the Academic Office, the Lodge to the most timely data and methods that
Catering, Housekeeping to Finance and are discussed later in this magazine
the Library, has been outstanding. We are are one clear example of the ways that
looking forward to greater opening up, thoughtful analysis can offer huge insight
although are also aware of the fragility of into very current problems.
the position. The pandemic we have all been
The bulk of the material in this edition living through since the beginning of
of the Magazine looks ahead, but as is 2020 has itself created vast amounts
almost always the case, to look ahead of new information to be captured
sensibly relies on as clear as possible an and considered and learned from, and
understanding of the past and present. that work will continue at Nuffield and
The social-scientific task of understanding elsewhere for many years to come.
our world doesn’t change much, but Questions of trust, in algorithms, in
some of the ways we can come to an politicians, in journalism, all touched on
understanding do change, not least as in this edition of the magazine, will be
data availability and processing potential critical to that future.
We very much hope that in the next
year, we will be able to meet again in
person. In the meantime, I invite you to
look into the future with us in these pages.

Sir Andrew Dilnot

Warden

4 College News
COLLEGE
NEWS
FOUNDER’S Photo by Peter Marshall

BIRTHDAY 2019
By tradition, the Warden
marks the birthday of the
College’s founder Lord
Nuffield on 10 October with a
lunchtime toast in Hall.
This informal photo
was taken on the Founder’s
Birthday in 2019 to mark
the occasion. As the formal
College photo (normally
taken at the Founder’s Feast
in March) was cancelled, it is
also the last big group photo of
current Fellows, students and
staff before the UK lockdown.

The NUSI team and the first cohort of students in summer 2019
UNDERGRADUATE SCHOLARS INSTITUTE SHORTLISTED
FOR DIVERSITY AWARD
The Nuffield Undergraduate Scholars Institute (NUSI) – which
welcomed its first cohort in 2019 (see Issue 19) – was
shortlisted with partner programme UNIQ+ for a Vice-
Chancellor’s Diversity Award for Diversifying Participation.
The NUSI programme aims to expand access to postgraduate
studies in the social sciences. It allows bright and motivated
undergraduate students from underrepresented backgrounds to
gain research experience over six weeks in the summer, with no
fees, free accommodation and meals and a bursary.
The Institute is planned to return for its second year in summer
2022. For more information about the institute, see www.nuffield.
ox.ac.uk/go/nusi

College News 5
COLLEGE
NEWS
ANDREW DILNOT’S
WARDENSHIP EXTENDED PRESERVATION AWARD FOR
In March 2020, the Governing THE JAM FACTORY
Body Fellows agreed to extend the Work undertaken at The Jam Factory, a
appointment of Sir Andrew Dilnot, Nuffield-owned building, received a certificate
CBE, as Warden of the College until 31 for building conservation in the 2021 Oxford
August 2027. The extension was happily Preservation Trust Awards. The annual awards
confirmed in November 2020 and shared celebrate the contribution that buildings and
with current College Fellows, staff and environmental projects make to the city.
students by Senior Fellow Ray Fitzpatrick.

RESEARCH CENTRE NEWS

CLIMATE ECONOMETRICS CENTRE FOR SOCIAL INVESTIGATION
Before COVID-19, the Climate Econometrics team liaised with The research team at the Centre for Social Investigation
MPs from the Science and Technology and the Treasury Select was busy with three main projects in 2020: Anthony Heath
Committees on climate risk, including decarbonising road and Lindsay Richards on Brexit; on social mobility with the
transport. Since February 2020, the team have been forecasting Behavioural Insights Team and Manchester University;
the spread of COVID-19 (see page 14). Meanwhile, Postdoctoral and on gun violence in the US with Harvard University.
Research Fellows Sam Rowan and Susana Campos Martins CSI members have also continued to publish their work
participated in the virtual Lindau Nobel Laureate meeting in throughout 2020, including Dave Kirk’s book Home Free (see
June 2020, where Susana’s video on ‘Communicating Climate page 12) and Anthony Heath’s timely paper on racial and
Change’ for children won second place. ethnic discrimination in the labour market.

CESS GOES VIRTUAL 1ST NUCAMP VIRTUAL PHD WORKSHOP

With the addition of a new lead programmer, members of The Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Policy (NuCamp)
the Centre for Experimental Social Sciences (CESS) have adapted quickly to the pandemic in 2020: despite having to
been developing a virtual laboratory as an alternative to the cancel a planned conference in China, DPhil students Alistair
usual laboratory setting during the pandemic. The Centre Macaulay and Julian Ashwin organised the first NuCamp
will continue to develop its global outreach by expanding its Virtual PhD Workshop in May, with twelve papers and
online subject pool and regional centres. contributors from around the world.

POLITICS RESEARCH CENTRE

The Nuffield Politics Research Centre and Westminster Bridge – the new name of the Gwilym Gibbon Centre for Public Policy
under Director Jane Green – was launched in 2019. For more information about its aims and work, including the work of the
Elections Unit led by Geoffrey Evans, see politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk. In 2020, the Centre helped launch the WhoGov dataset,
the largest available dataset on government members across time and countries collected by Nuffield DPhil student Jacob Nyrup.

6 College News
NEWS IN BRIEF
Charities set up homeless housing in College buildings Warm welcomes
A new project launched by Aspire Oxfordshire and Transition by A warm welcome to new Professorial Fellows Frank Windmeijer,
Design uses currently empty buildings to provide medium-term Barbara Petrongolo and Martin Weidner who joined the
independent-living quarters for the homeless. The pilot, which Economics group in January 2020, September 2020 and
makes use of some empty Nuffield College buildings, opened January 2021 respectively. We also look forward to welcoming
its doors to six women at the end of 2020. Speaking to the BBC, Francis Dodoo who will take up his appointment as a Senior
new resident Rachel Mason said “I was homeless for 20 years Research Fellow at Nuffield and a British Academy Global
in a terrible circle I couldn’t get out of. Just having a door key – Professor at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science
that’s amazing – just having it in my hand and somewhere for later in 2021.
me to go and call my own”.

BLACK LIVES MATTER

In the wake of the anti-racism protests following the terrible killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis,
and in solidarity with the Black Lives Matter movement all over the world, the College reaffirmed its
opposition to racial discrimination in all its forms.
For more about the commitments the College has made to promote equality and diversity in its
community and beyond, see www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/news/black-lives-matter.

IN MEMORIAM
Over the last 18 months, we were sad to hear about the deaths of longstanding economic
commentator and Honorary Fellow Samuel Brittan (Research Officer 1973-74; Visiting Fellow 1974-
82) on 12 October 2020, and sociologist and Honorary Fellow Garry Runciman (Visiting Fellow
1979-87) on 10 December 2020. Other sad losses of alumni will be published in the Annual Report.

John Edward Howes, 1961 to 2019

All at the College were also sad to hear of the death of temporary Lodge Porter John Howes
(pictured on the left) on 30 October 2019 from his injuries sustained in a bicycle accident with a
drug driver. John was on his way home from a shift at Nuffield when the incident occurred. He
made such a positive impact in the College during the short time he had been working here, and
will continue to be missed by all who worked alongside him.

College News 7
COLLEGE 2020: A snapshot of
College Life in the
NEWS pandemic

What a year! Day-to-day life in Oxford has changed dramatically since the first UK lockdown in March 2020, as this snapshot
of College life shows.
In the midst of all these changes, Nuffield Fellows and students have continued to produce world-class research and
respond to the social science challenges posed by the pandemic.

March
Nuffield springs into action
Whilst the College swiftly instigates its own lockdown policies, some
Nuffield members also spring into action in the local community.
IT Director Mark helps a local volunteer group who are
3D-printing visors, whilst Site Manager Gary uses the College van
to distribute PPE, food and welfare consignments to NHS sites
around Oxford.

April
Oxford is empty
The streets of Oxford are eerily
empty during the first UK lockdown
in March and April. Emeritus Fellow
Richard Mayou takes these photos
on his daily walk.

June
… and even the ducks are
distancing!
As restrictions start to ease, some of the College’s non-resident
members start to carefully come back in. During the strictest
part of lockdown, no one was coming in to trim the lawn and
even the ducks were socially distancing.

8 College News
October
Michaelmas
Term 2020
The new academic year
starts and the new students
celebrate Matriculation in
their household groups,
with the ceremony taking
place ‘virtually’ on their
computer screens.

d… … and well
Staying well-rea -fed

…the Library team keeps the College reading remotely by …and the catering team transform the Buttery to make sure
running a ‘pigeonhole loan’ scheme. They even parcel up fiction they can feed those still resident in College, implementing social
books from their book exchange to deliver to self-isolating distancing measures and offering takeaway meals.
residents (pictured above).

November December
US Election Christmas at a distance
Nuffield students gather (socially distanced of course) in the For the first time in its history, the student Pantomime is
College marquee to follow the US Election throughout the recorded instead of performed live, and students watch it in
night. Meanwhile, Professorial Fellow Des King took part in a their own rooms. Staff celebrate the upcoming Christmas break
webinar on race and the US Elections for the British Academy. at a distance: some haven’t seen each other since March.

College News 9
TALKING POINTS
The year in Fellows’ News

September 2019 December 2019

The ‘Parenting for Lifelong Health’ Following an episode of Netflix’s The Crown (episode 3, season 3)
project led by Professorial Fellow that dealt with the aftermath of the Aberfan disaster in 1966, an
Lucie Cluver received a Horizon explanatory video published by Netflix on YouTube (‘What Happened
Impact Award from the European at Aberfan? This Is The Full Story’, 7 December 2019) referenced the
Commission. Lucie and her book co-written by Senior Research Fellow Iain McLean with Martin
colleagues worked with UNICEF, the Johnes, Aberfan: Government and Disaster.
WHO, USAID, African governments
and families themselves from 2013
to 2018 to produce an incredibly
January 2020: New
successful evidence-based, open- Year’s Honours
access parenting program to help
Senior Research Fellow John Darwin and
prevent child abuse.
Visiting Fellow Sharon White were in the
Queen’s New Year’s Honours List for 2020. John

October 2019 was awarded a Commander of the Order of the

British Empire (CBE) in recognition of services
Senior Research Fellow Brian to the study of global history, and Sharon was
Nolan and colleagues won funding recognised with a Dame Commander of the
from the European Research Order of the British Empire for public service.
Council for their project‘Towards a Associate Member Sarah Whatmore,
System of Distributional National Professor of Environment and Public Policy
Accounts’ to comprehensively and Head of the University of Oxford’s Social
capture economic inequality Sciences Division, also received a DBE for
around the world. services to the study of environmental policy.

December 2019: UK
General Election
Nuffield Fellows continued the College’s long history
of researching British elections and other topical
social science research in the run-up to the UK
General Election on 12 December 2019.
Amongst other research taking place at
Nuffield on the subject, the current British Election
Study team – jointly led by Nuffield College and
the University of Manchester – announced the
publication of their newest book, Electoral Shocks, at a press conference in October 2019. The book, which
examines trends from the previous three General Elections, finds an unprecedented shift in voter volatility from
2010 to 2017 (see page 42).
Meanwhile, Professorial Fellow Jane Green joined Associate Member Colin Rallings to provide expert
political analysis on ITV News’ election night coverage (pictured above), and Professorial Fellow Ben Ansell set
up a 2019 General Election Predictor using the polls.
More information about other research and expert commentary taking place at Nuffield on the 2019
General Election can be found on the news story on the College website.

10 College News
March 2020
Professorial Fellow Andrew Thompson was invited to present
evidence to the UK Home Office in 2019 as part of the
Windrush Lessons Learned Review, the report of which was
published by the House of Commons on 19 March 2020.
September 2020
April 2020 Professorial Fellow Melinda Mills was invited to become a
member of the UK Government’s SAGE Ethnicity Subgroup,
Professorial Fellow Melinda Mills was awarded a which advises on COVID-19 risks and impacts for minority
European Research Council grant for her innovative ethnic groups.
new project to collect and ethically distribute DNA
data to scientists. The Proof of Concept Grant will be
Professorial Fellow Cécile Laborde was awarded
used to start a social enterprise called DNA4Science,
the 2019 David and Elaine Spitz Prize – awarded
using Melinda’s research for the ERC-funded project
annually for the best book in the field of liberal or
‘CHRONO: Chronotype, health and family’.
democratic theory - by the International Conference
for the Study of Political Thought for her book

July 2020 Liberalism’s Religion (Harvard 2017). Cécile hosted

a symposium at Nuffield in 2018 based on the
Professorial Fellow Jane Green and Associate book’s themes of religion, law and state in the
Member Colin Rallings were nominated for Western world.
a BAFTA (in the category Live Event) with
colleagues from ITV News for their General
DPhil student Alistair Macaulay was named
Election coverage in 2019.
one of three 2020 Young Economists by
the European Economic Association for his
The Warden, Andrew Dilnot, gave evidence paper on the effect of household savings
to the UK Commons Committee on Health choices on the business cycle (‘Cyclical
and Social Care on Tuesday 14 July to Attention to Saving’).
restate his recommendations from 2011
that there be a cap on social care costs.

May 2020 September 2020 January 2021:

Senior Research Fellow David Non-Stipendiary Research New Year’s
Miller was recognised with a
Lifetime Achievement Award
Fellow José Manuel Aburto
was one of two recipients of the
Honours
by the European Consortium 2021 European Demographer Professorial Fellow Andrew Thompson
for Political Research for his Award, which supports was awarded a Commander of the
body of work on political theory, outstanding research on the British Empire (CBE) for services to
including migration, nationality, causes and consequences of research in the Queen’s New Year’s
social justice and citizenship. demographic change in Europe. Honours list for 2021.
He was joined in the list by two
Nuffield alumni, Dieter Helm (DPhil
April 2020 Economics 1979) who received
a Knight Bachelor for services to
Three Nuffield Postdoctoral Fellows – David Delacretaz,
the environment, to energy and to
Susana Campos Martins and Sam Rowan – have been
utilities policy, and Patricia Rice (DPhil
invited to join the 7th Lindau Nobel Laureate meeting
Sociology 1975; Associate Member
on Economic Sciences. They will join other young
2008-2019), who was awarded an
economists in Germany in 2022 – postponed from 2020
OBE for services to education.
due to COVID-19 – to meet with 30 to 40 Nobel Laureates.

College News 11
BOOKS BY
FELLOWS

Inward Conquest: The The Economics of the Radical Uncertainty: Is Self-Determination a

Political Origins of Modern Second World War: Seventy- Decision-making for an Dangerous Illusion?
Public Services Five Years On unknowable future David Miller
Ben Ansell and Johannes edited by Stephen Broadberry John Kay and Mervyn King From Scotland to Catalonia,
Lindvall and Mark Harrison Visiting Fellow John Kay political self-determination is
Professorial Fellow Ben Ansell In the year that marked and alumnus Mervyn King one of the big questions of
and co-author Johannes the 75th anniversary of warn that numbers offer 21st century politics. In Is Self-
Lindvall analyse the political VE Day, this e-book edited false security. Whilst some Determination a Dangerous
origins of public services by Professorial Fellow uncertainty is resolvable, Illusion?, Senior Research
in the nineteenth and early Stephen Broadberry gathers most situations have a Fellow David Miller explains
twentieth centuries, and the together recent research on ‘radical uncertainty’, for which why self-determination
struggles between the political both the economics of the historical data provides no is valuable and how self-
parties and religious groups Second World War and its useful guidance. Human determining groups must
that shaped them. consequences for demography, judgement and robust and have a common identity for it
inequality, economic recovery resilient strategies must to succeed.
Education and and political attitudes. instead take precedence.
Intergenerational Social Who Wants What?
Mobility in Europe and the Electoral Shocks: The Volatile Home Free: Prisoner Reentry Redistribution in
United States Voter in a Turbulent World and Residential Change Comparative Perspective
edited by Richard Breen and Ed Fieldhouse, Jane Green, after Hurricane Katrina David Rueda and Daniel
Walter Müller Geoffrey Evans, Jonathan A. David Kirk Stegmueller
Each chapter of Education Mellon, Christopher Prosser, What happens when released Why do some people support
and Intergenerational Social Hermann Schmitt and C. prisoners have no home to redistribution through, for
Mobility (co-edited by van der Eijk return to? Professorial Fellow example, a generous welfare
Professorial Fellow Richard Published as an open access Dave Kirk found an unusual state, and why do others not?
Breen) focuses on a different title and written by the side-effect of devastation and Professorial Fellow David
country to examine the role British Election Study team – displacement caused in New Rueda and co-author Daniel
of education in patterns including Professorial Fellow Orleans by Hurricane Katrina: Stegmueller provide a novel
of intergenerational social Jane Green and Official Fellow rates of recidivism were much explanation of the causes of
mobility during the twentieth Geoff Evans – this book about lower in prisoners who were demands for redistribution.
century. the ‘electoral shocks’ of the released into new locations.
recent British General Elections
is also on the Library’s Reading
List on page 42.

12 College News
Time Machine

81 years ago: October 1939

The iron lung was invented in 1928
in Boston, MA in response to the polio
epidemics that were common at the
time. In 1938, hearing a plea on the
radio for iron lungs, Lord Nuffield started
producing cheaper ‘Both-Nuffield’ iron
lungs on his car factory floor in Oxford.
Over the course of six years, he donated
almost 2,000 iron lungs to hospitals
across Britain and the British empire.
With many thanks to Mary Dobson
(DPhil Geography 1977; Research Fellow
1981-1984) for highlighting Lord Nuffield’s
important philanthropic role in this past
epidemic. She writes about Lord Nuffield’s
donations in her book Murderous
Contagion (Quercus, 2015).

Above: An iron lung donated by College founder Lord Nuffield to Devizes and
District Hospital in October 1939 during a polio epidemic (LN 29/3).

Left: An entry in Lord Nuffield’s donation book, recording some of his gifts of iron
lungs between 1938 and 1944 (LN 47). Images from the Lord Nuffield Archive
collection held in Nuffield College Library.

College News 13
FORECASTING
IN THE TIME OF
CORONAVIRUS

How do you predict the course of a pandemic?

Epidemiological modelling might not be the best approach.

Alumna Jennifer Castle (DPhil Economics 2003, Research Fellow 2006-9),

Fellows Jurgen Doornik and David Hendry, and Climate Econometrics Project
Manager Angela Wenham make the case for ‘time-series’ methods of forecasting.
T
he SARS-CoV-2 virus has had a massive
impact worldwide. As we wrote
this (mid- August 2020), confirmed
COVID-19 cases had passed 85 million
and were still rising rapidly. More than
1.8 million people had died, health systems were
stressed even in developed countries and there
had been large economic losses.
To help health authorities plan for hospital
admissions and governments decide on their
mitigation policies, we have been publishing week-
ahead forecasts for confirmed cases and deaths in
many parts of the world, updated almost daily. Since
20 March 2020, our forecasts have been largely
reliable indicators of what might happen in the
following week.
Unlike epidemiological models which have
received considerable press, our forecasts do not
focus on the causes or drivers of the pandemic.
While epidemiological models have a sound
theoretical basis and a history of useful applications,
they still face important additional problems caused
by unexpected events, like major policy changes.
Instead, our forecasts rely purely on the recent past
data, capturing how the pandemic has evolved and
shifted in order to predict what will happen next. Our
forecasts have proven to often be better than model-
based ones, for a range of reasons.
Imagine you are travelling from Oxford to
Leicester to visit a friend. Knowing your itinerary, we
can forecast the evolution of your trip. An accident
closes the road ahead at Northampton, so you take
a detour. The forecasts go wrong for a while, then
recover after you return to the main road. Many
models have an in-built property like this, similar to
reversion to the mean. Usually that works well, but
now you hear that Leicester has had a lockdown
imposed, so you divert to Stratford-upon-Avon
instead. So long as we continue forecasting that you
are going to Leicester, our forecasts will become
increasingly inaccurate.

Feature 15
FORECAST EVALUATION OF CONFIRMED CASES & DEATHS IN BRAZIL
1,000,000
Confirmed Cases

300,000
200,000

100,000
Deaths

30,000
20,000

10,000

3000
2000
1000
Data
Trend
Forecasts

15 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28
Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun

We need a method that can recover both types of shift. Adaptive data-based current trend by taking moving windows
from such a `structural break’. If we methods that are `robust’ after shifts can of the data - say 20 observations
extrapolate along your new route to avoid systematic mis-forecasting. long - and saturating each of these
Stratford-upon-Avon, despite not now We used such ‘robust’ statistical through linear trends, so initially there
knowing your destination, our forecasts devices to create our forecasts for are as many trends as observations. To
will be more accurate. In a similar way, numbers of reported confirmed cases select which trends matter, we use our
our long experience shows us that and of deaths attributed to COVID-19 econometric machine-learning algorithm,
models which are designed to help with up to a week ahead. The reporting ‘Autometrics’. The selected linear trends
understanding are not necessarily good basis, for example, differs across both are averaged to give the overall flexible
for forecasting. Devices that are ‘robust’ countries and time. Some countries just trend. Next, that trend and any systematic
when faced with unexpected shocks and use hospital counts, some add in other past deviations are both forecasted using
shifts can forecast better. locations like care homes; some do much an improved version of the method we
Novel viruses can act and evolve more infection testing, whereas others used with success in the M4 competition
differently from previous pandemics and only record cases serious enough to need (held by the M Open Forecasting Center
might induce new policy reactions like medical intervention; and occasionally, at the University of Nicosia in Cyprus, the
lockdowns. Measurements of cases and the recording basis is changed. Our M4 competition compares approaches
deaths can also suddenly change, for forecasts produce the next numbers for for forecasting on 100,000 series). As
example from increased testing detecting the recording system currently in use. If countries may differ substantially in their
more infected individuals or, as in the UK, the recording system changes, the next variability, we also report the average of
the inclusion of care home cases. The forecast may be wrong, but updating the many forecast paths.
effect compounds as shifts in the process later forecasts quickly moves them back As Latin America moved into focus
interact with shifts in the reporting on track. in July, the graph above shows our
method. To produce viable short-term Constructing these forecasts involves forecasts for confirmed cases and
forecasts, devices must be able to handle several steps. We first estimate the deaths from COVID-19 in Brazil. The data

16 Feature
9TH JULY 2020 2ND JANUARY 2021

No Cases Last Week < 5 Cases Last Week 0 - 4 Cases 5 - 8 Cases 9 - 15 Cases 16 - 30 Cases 31 - 60 Cases 61 - 150 Cases

151 - 300 Cases 301 - 600 Cases 601 - 1500 Cases 1501 - 3000 Cases 3001 - 6000 Cases 6001 - 15000 Cases No Observations

are the thick grey lines with solid circles. The approach can also be applied at
The estimated trends are the blue dotted local levels. As local pandemic flare-ups Since this article was written, the
lines and the forecasts are the red lines require local lockdowns to keep national authors have published two open
with open circles. 80% interval forecasts levels in check, we include English local access papers on this work:
are plotted as thin dotted red lines. As authority forecasts of new cases a week • J A Doornik, J L Castle, and D F
expected from our discussion above, ahead, to provide policymakers with Hendry (2020), ‘Statistical short-
sudden changes in the initial trends lead advance information: see the maps above term forecasting of the COVID-19
to the forecasts noticeably diverging from for 9 July 2020 and 2 January 2021. Pandemic’ in Journal of Clinical
the later outcomes. These are quickly Robust time-series methods for short- Immunology and Immunotherapy
corrected, however, and the forecasts term forecasting, such as ours, have an 6. (doi: 10.24966/CIIT-
become increasingly accurate over time. important role in the current pandemic as 8844/1000046; open access)
Our webpage (www.doornik.com/ they are in fact both unbiased and more • J A Doornik, J L Castle, and D
COVID-19) also estimates peaks in daily accurate than epidemiological modelling. F Hendry (2020), ‘Short-term
counts and deaths (using an averaged In comparison with the one-week ahead forecasting of the coronavirus
smoothed trend), and offers an initial forecasts by the Imperial College London pandemic’ in International Journal
visual evaluation of our forecasts. The COVID-19 Response Team, based on 29 of Forecasting, in press. (doi:
‘peak increase for deaths’ reports when comparable forecasts of deaths, Imperial 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.09.003;
the peak occurred and the number had a mean absolute error of 1068 open access)
of days elapsed since that peak. The versus our 629 up to 4 April 2020, and for Their letter on 11 April 2020 - ‘Even
growing number of countries passing the following week, 1912 versus 678. murky glasses are better than
the peak would provide hope that the Further information about our a blindfold’ - was also named a
dramatic economic costs of major COVID-19 forecasts and references can Financial Times ‘Letter of the Year’
lockdowns have been worthwhile in be found on our webpage, www.doornik. for 2020.
controlling the pandemic. com/COVID-19.

Feature 17
 st r l
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(L ) : m a x = 0 f or x in L
ax :
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ur
Algorithmic Alchemy
Former Visiting Fellow and ‘Undercover Economist’ Tim Harford (2010-2018) calls for transparency in the datasets we
increasingly use to make life-and-death decisions.

I
n the mid-seventeenth century, a science depended on open debate. how to turn lead into gold if everyone
distinction began to emerge between The likes of Marin Mersenne – monk, knows how to do it? Isaac Newton
alchemy and what we’d regard as mathematician, and ‘the post-box of admonished Robert Boyle to “maintain
modern science. The two fields co-existed Europe’ – would circulate scientific high silence” about his alchemical work,
for a while. They used similar methods; findings. Experiments were scrutinised, and the confusion was only deepened by
the alchemists were as unrelenting in their replicated, modified, and performed the assumption that progress had been
experimentation as the early chemists. The in public. ‘All the curious can test it made in secret by the ancients, then lost.
practitioners of the two fields were equally themselves whenever they like,’ wrote With all this in mind, let’s talk about
talented. We can say this with confidence, Blaise Pascal of one famous experiment. the future of algorithmic decision making.
since they were often the same men: Isaac And they did. The parallel is imperfect, because
Newton and Robert Boyle were fervent The Royal Society (in 1660) and The alchemy is impossible and deriving
practitioners of the art of alchemy. French Academy of Sciences (1666) were insight from data is not. Yet the analogy
Yet alchemy stagnated, while science established along distinctly Mersennian should be instructive. We are surrounded
advanced. Why? The answer, argues lines: what mattered was sharing, by secret datasets, commercially
David Wootton, a historian of science, demonstrating and debating ideas. confidential algorithms, and politicians
is in their different attitudes to scrutiny. Alchemy by contrast, was always a who seem convinced that it is quite
Alchemy was pursued in secret while secret. What value is there of discovering possible to turn lead into gold.

18 Feature
le 1 : re t u
=

x
len ( L) =

ma
) : i f
x (L r
a u

n
d_m er t
= x
ma x
if x > max:

rn L ( 0 ) L (1 : !)
v1 = L(0) v2 = find_ ma x (

Consider the algo-shambles of last There is every chance that, wisely should be open to independent scrutiny,
summer, in which pupils in the UK were used, such algorithms can correct subject to rigorous tests of effectiveness,
assured that they would be assigned flaws and biases that human decision and designed to be useful and intelligible
the correct grades by an algorithm. A makers exhibit. But we cannot believe to citizens.
moment’s reflection would reveal that semi-mystical promises made without The scientists of the 1640s quickly
no algorithm could possibly know what evidence. learned the value of open scrutiny. It
grade a student would have earned in My book, How To Make The World would be a shame to forget the value of
an exam that never took place. But it Add Up, argues that in general we are all that lesson.
seems that the politicians and senior civil capable of thinking clearly and critically
servants did not think this through. about the numbers that surround us.
In the future, algorithms will make But that optimistic view does not Tim is the author
more and more life-and-death decisions. apply to the working of secret algorithms. of How To Make
They already direct police activity, decide Following (Nuffield Honorary Fellow) The World Add Up
whether claims of child endangerment Baroness Onora O’Neill’s ideas on (www.timharford.
will be followed up, and determine who is trustworthiness, we must insist on com/books/
released on bail and who is remanded in intelligent norms of transparency for worldaddup).
custody. algorithms if we are to trust them. They

Feature 19
WHAT’S TRUST
GOT TO DO
WITH IT?
In Brazil, distrust in politicians doesn’t necessarily
translate into disengagement during elections.

Demonstrators take part in a protest against Brazilian right-wing presidential

candidate Jair Bolsonaro in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on 20 October 2018.
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Mariana Borges Martins da Silva
conducts ethnographic research with Brazilian voters to understand
this disconnect. She explores what it might mean for the upcoming
presidential elections in 2022.

emocracies worldwide amidst such levels of political distrust? as deserving clients will seek to side with
have been grappling with In my ethnographic research among likely winners. For politicians and political
increasing distrust in low-income voters from rural Brazil, I parties, voters’ attraction to likely winners
parties and politicians. found that voters’ different understanding means that it is vital that candidates
Political scientists have of the act of voting can explain voters’ signal early on their electoral strength.
associated the disenchantment with engagement with politics. Participation In my ethnographic research, I found
politics with lower levels of political amidst distrust seems puzzling because that the emphasis on demonstrations
participation and the recent success we assume that citizens perceive their of electoral strength leads politicians,
of populist extremist politicians that vote as an opportunity to have their even those from ideologically-committed
promote an anti-system narrative. While interests heard and represented. If leftist parties, to engage in costly
higher distrust in parties and politicians voters feel that politicians systematically campaigns and to seek the endorsement
might be a recent phenomenon for disregard their interests, we expect of traditional elites and wealthy donors,
democracies of the developed world, for voters to either engage in protest voting essential conditions for politicians to be
many countries of the developing world, or disengage from politics. However, perceived as strong contenders.
high levels of distrust in the political if voters assign a different meaning to How are these dynamics reflected
system have existed for a long time. their vote, the perception that politicians in broader trends, and what does this
Brazil is one example of a democracy systematically ignore their interests will mean for future elections in Brazil? For
that has functioned alongside high levels not necessarily lead to disengagement. the election to the National Congress the
of distrust in political parties. According This is the case for Brazil. importance of these campaign practices
to the World Values Survey data, almost Poor voters in rural Brazil take it – that emphasise electoral strength over
60% of Brazilians report no trust at all for granted that politicians will be policy representation – has resulted in a
in political parties, giving Brazil one of unresponsive to their demands once large share of seats held by parties that
the highest levels of distrust in political elected, but they continue to participate lack ideological principles. Big money is
parties in the world (see Figure 1). The in elections. For these voters, however, also likely to continue to be an essential
current President Jair Bolsonaro is their vote is a tool to gain a modicum player in legislative elections in Brazil,
just the most recent Brazilian politician of symbolic power to negotiate with as electoral viability is signalled through
who has come to power using an politicians. These voters appropriate elite large campaign spending. Despite several
anti-establishment narrative; anti- narratives – narratives that claim a right recent regulations that restrict corporate
establishment politicians have succeeded to the spoils of office from the politicians donations to parties, the political system
throughout Brazilian history and in its they have helped win – by expanding the has circumvented these restrictions by
more contemporary politics. Despite notion of what counts as a contribution having millionaires run as candidates.
Brazilian voters’ entrenched resentment to include their individual vote. By siding In the election of 2002, 20% of Brazilian
towards politicians, however, Brazil has with likely winners, poor voters used their Federal Deputies were millionaires, while
relatively low levels of voter apathy. Even vote, therefore, as a tool to affirm their in 2018, that number rose to almost half.
when accounting for spoilt and blank status as deserving voters and to gain This requirement that candidates
votes, Brazilian levels of participation sit symbolic power. signal their electoral strength – through
at 70%, which is much higher than other The notion of the vote as a tool to both popular appeal and the endorsement
Latin American countries who share enhance voters’ power affects how poor of economic elites – will also likely
similar levels of distrust in politicians (see voters approach their voting choices continue to be a crucial factor in the
Figure 2). and how politicians organize their upcoming Presidential election in 2022.
What explains voters’ unusually high campaign strategies. Voters who use Since the Brazilian Supreme Court
levels of political engagement in Brazil their vote as a tool to affirm their status annulled the criminal convictions of

22 Feature
 % OF CITIZENS WHO DO NOT TRUST POLITICAL PARTIES AT
ALL PER COUNTRY
China
Malaysia
Sweden
Philippines
New Zealand
Germany
Netherlands
Japan
Belarus
former President Lula and restored South Korea
his political rights, he is likely to be the United States
leading opponent to current President Ghana
Jair Bolsonaro. While Lula, in theory, Turkey
can count on solid support among South Africa
popular segments, in a recent national India
representative online survey that I Australia
conducted, between 20% to 25% voters Nigeria
Uruguay
among the middle and lower classes said
Spain
they would vote for a candidate supported
Argentina
by Lula or Bolsonaro, and around 30% Lebanon
said that they could go both ways. Ukraine
This means that at least a third of the Ecuador
most significant segment of the voting Algeria
population in Brazil is still up for grabs. Chile
For undecided voters, signals from Mexico
the elite can be crucial when deciding Colombia
which side to choose. When Lula won Peru
his first election in 2002, one of the main Brazil
Tunisia
differences from his three previous failed
Libya
attempts was that he had been endorsed
by important segments of the economic 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
elite for the first time. Lula’s chances of
defeating Bolsonaro in 2022 will depend
on whether he can repeat his previous
TRUST IN POLITICAL PARTIES VS TURNOUT IN SOME LATIN
coalition with the elite. While Bolsonaro
AMERICA COUNTIRES
has lost much support among the elites 100
% of citizens who do not trust at all in political parties
after a year of disastrous management of % of turnout in most recent parliamentary election
the pandemic, he still enjoys a good level 90
of confidence among this segment. The
80
current context in Brazil is very different
from 2002, as the elite have increasing 70
rejected Lula in huge numbers since
he left power, and they do not seem to 60
have rescinded. If Lula will indeed be the
50
main opposition in the next presidential
election, the game of electoral strength 40
will likely revolve around whether the
elites’ growing disgruntlement with 30
President Bolsonaro will be high enough
20
to overcome their aversion to the former
President Lula. 10

0
Brazil Peru Mexico Colombia Argentina Uruguay

Feature 23
 Thinking the Future

NGO
s
1,50 report
Feb.
13, 2
021
0
Fore agai inciden
n
in ‘d st staff ts
ign ifficu
hav aid o
t
lt’ ye
ing
a
is
e n t ar
reck
e r n m G O s
onin
g G o v a l l N
ate g u l
re
The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged all organisations and none more
so than International NGOs (INGOs) working in relief and development.

Professorial Fellow Andrew Thompson and Honorary

Fellow Mike Aaronson tackle the ‘radical uncertainty’
faced by INGOs during these unusual times.

For many years and purpose. They

International NGOs were also fighting
(INGOs) have played to regain public trust in
a huge role in shaping the the wake of revelations about
international response to crises, whether sexual exploitation and abuse in the aid
sudden emergencies or longer-term problems of sector. Now COVID-19 has not only destabilised their
poverty and disadvantage. But so much has changed. operations but has added further uncertainty about
We are in the midst of a global pandemic that deeply their future, to the extent that some observers even
affects those in the most desperate of situations, question whether they have one. At best, they face
added to which government funding agendas are the ‘radical uncertainty’ described by John Kay and
shifting and support for international development Mervyn King in their recent book (Radical Uncertainty:
is in the balance. Decision-making for an unknowable future; Hachette,
Even before the pandemic, INGOs were asking London): a future where conventional methods of
themselves hard questions about their future role forecasting are inadequate.

24 Feature
 Pre-pandemic, and encouraged by leaders from In the first scenario not much changes at all
within the sector itself, we embarked on a research for INGOs and an existential crisis never quite
project based at Nuffield to understand better materialises; they manage to carry on much as
the leadership challenges facing INGOs. Despite before. In the second, the world around them changes
the obvious limitations, we decided to focus on a so much that they end up with a much reduced role;
particular group of mainly western and largely UK- they are ‘Ubered out of existence’. In the third, they
based organisations in order to help us gain a deeper succeed in transforming the way they work and play
understanding of the humanitarian sector as a whole an even more important role; they rediscover their
and the future of the humanitarian project. Initial core purpose and manage to apply themselves anew.
workshops in our series (‘International NGOs and the Earlier this year we embarked on a major survey
Long Humanitarian Century: Legacy, Legitimacy, and of INGO leaders past, present and future, which
Leading into the Future’) identified some key research subsequently will involve a wider stakeholder
areas, including how INGOs create value, what they group. We are gathering views on these three
are trusted to do by those they try to help and by scenarios and therefore about the kind of
those who fund them, how they build social capital future INGO leaders expect to have to
that transcends geography, whether they succeed in manage. We believe that by ‘thinking
shaping the political economy in which they operate the future’, leaders will be better able
or are, indeed, shaped by it, and how much change to manage it; specifically they will
they have faced and they will face. be able to develop what Kay and
Since March, we have shifted gear and looked King call the “credible reference
in-depth at the challenge of the pandemic itself. narratives” that are needed to “If NGOs
The degree of uncertainty and complexity facing all handle radical uncertainty.
international organisations is reflected, amplified, These narratives were
and magnified by the pandemic because of the require leaders to have
way it intensifies pre-existing uncertainties and a clear sense of what swimming
instabilities while also introducing new ones. If our
organisations were swimming against a tide – of
realistically they are trying
to make happen; they against a
pressure to cede more control to local partner
organisations, of pressure from donor governments
constitute handrails for
leaders to navigate and
tide, that
to support ‘securitisation’ agendas, of competition
from newer forms of social organisation better able
negotiate the problems
they experience, the
tide is
to exploit digital potential – that tide has become crises they confront, and dramatically
dramatically stronger. the uncertainties which
Meanwhile the pandemic has multiplied surround them — to define stronger.”
inequalities within and between countries and cast a the issues, to take difficult
dark shadow over the lives of the poorest and most decisions, and to judge the
disadvantaged people, exactly those that INGOs right course of action. Our
are here to serve. At the same time, it has produced survey could also shed light
new financial pressures that reduce the capacity of on problems that go beyond the
INGOs to respond, and the severity of the crisis in INGO sector, concerning an array
their home countries threatens a return to a more of national, regional, and international
inward-looking and less generous world-view. Public organisations.
health requirements have disrupted traditional The COVID-19 crisis, tragic though it is,
response mechanisms, and local communities creates a more urgent opportunity for INGOs to
and organisations have been less able to count on reinvent themselves and to remain useful in a world
support from their international partners. The worst which, although it may be very different in geopolitical
of the crisis is probably still to come. terms from the one in which they were founded, still
Because of this, INGOs’ usefulness is increasingly needs effective and respected organisations driven
called into question. Despite their distinguished by values of solidarity and global justice, working on
histories, they face a crisis of legitimacy, effectiveness behalf of the poorest and most marginalised people
and, therefore relevance. This is a major leadership on our planet. We will all be poorer if they fail to rise
challenge for the sector. To help leaders address to this challenge.
this we have been inviting them to look forward to For more information about Andrew and
2030 and imagine three possible scenarios, not as Mike’s project – ‘International NGOs and the Long
an attempt to predict the future but as a means of Humanitarian Century – see their webpages at
preparing for it better. www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/go/internationalNGOs.

Feature 25
W
e caught up with alumnus
Paul Ostwald, who studied
for an MPhil in International
Relations at Nuffield starting in 2018.
Paul co-founded Forum.eu in 2020,
which translates the best journalism
from across Europe for wider how a crowd of journalists tried to
consumption. write about the same issue – Europe’s
I did my undergraduate degree at incapacity to handle migration –
Oxford and initially had mixed feelings without speaking Greek. It took me
about staying on for the Masters. I hours to find someone who could
asked myself whether I was simply translate what the Greek newspapers
trying to prolong the wonderful were reporting on the crisis. have ended up rethinking my own
experience of my first three years at That’s when I thought: how positionality as a German citizen.
Oxford. Nuffield College turned out is it that in some fields, such as We had a discussion on an analysis
to be a completely new world with neurosurgery, we’ve made huge leaps of the Spanish monarchy, which I
its small, tightly-knit community, an forward through technology while didn’t initially believe had European
influx of world leading scholars, and others, such as journalism, have relevance. My colleagues from the
a more entrepreneurial mindset given essentially remained unchanged for UK, however, disagreed – and rightly
that quite a few students had worked decades and centuries? Why has no so. Monarchy is very much alive in
before their studies. one tried to overcome the language Europe, and that’s something I didn’t
One thing I have reflected on a barriers in journalism? That’s how have on my radar.
lot lately is that I felt like a ‘freelance’ Forum.eu started out. I then met my Once we’ve selected the pieces, an
student during my Masters. While cofounders – Jonas Bedford-Strohm, AI-driven software provides the first
most friends at other universities had Nikolaus von Taysen and Valentin von rough translation from the original
strict deadlines, the thesis project Albrecht – through mutual contacts language to English. Our editors
forced me to organise my own time, and we began working out what we then shape it into a solid translation.
meet my own internal deadlines and could do to fill the gap. After a copy-edit, first drafts of the
develop an approach that I found At Forum.eu, we have a team translation are then generated for the
compelling. That prepared me well for of experienced journalists in seven other languages, to be again shaped
what came next: Forum.eu. European capitals who select articles and copy-edited. So far, we have
Before joining Nuffield, I worked as in their languages and then pitch every article in a German, French,
a freelance correspondent, reporting, them at our editorial call. In the call, English, Greek, Spanish and Polish
amongst other places, from Lesbos we discuss the merits and drawbacks version. Hopefully we can add more
in Greece in 2016. There I witnessed of the articles. In many cases I languages soon.

26 Feature
 Interestingly, I’m observing a is closer than you think. The network
strong sense of connectedness of Nuffield, in particular, is vast –
between the values of those in their and it seemed hard to access to
mid-50s to 70s and the 18-25-year- me during my days at the College. I
olds. That’s also apparent in know that Nuffield is trying to unlock
journalism, where transparency, the potential, and I think any work to
Whilst I was at Nuffield I learned critical thinking and compassion build on the connections between
about the role that Europe played in the are paramount. Of course, that’s not current students and alumni is a
world historically, through colonialism; generalizable but I do see a lot of great step forward.
its current attempt to position itself kinship between these generations. My next years will be about Forum.
between the US and China was a My top career advice for those eu. I’m currently working on securing
central part of course. European still at Nuffield would be to actively funding for the future. We have thirty
exceptionalism – the belief that we approach students, professors, employees, so financial security
are the cradle of enlightenment – is alumni, visitors and researchers is something that I take extremely
still widespread. I’m struggling with it, with your ideas. Most people will seriously. There is a part of me that
and there’s certainly a lot of this self- be supportive – and some even wants to return to Oxford for a DPhil
reflection in Forum.eu. enthusiastic. If you want to start a at some point. Coming back to
Unlike many, I’m quite hopeful company, you need co-founders. Nuffield, even if just as a guest for
about European integration. Certainly, There’s a big chance the ideal person lunch, would be like coming home.
there’s a lot that isn’t working as we
hoped – the vaccination distribution
is a case in point. Still, through
my work I meet young Europeans
MY OXFORD HAUNT:
with radically different visions of I have always loved Turl Street, which used to be the address of Ducker’s and
what the EU can be – and that Sons, a cobbler. That shop – for the better part of my time at Oxford – was
makes me hopeful. There’s a lot at my favourite place. It was quaint, the shop owner was quite inquisitive, but the
stake currently – COVID-19and an atmosphere was absolutely outstanding. Even without it, Turl Street in summer is
impending climate collapse – and a a place I would want to come back to at any point in my life.
whole generation is aware of this.

Feature 27
RESEARCH
DIGEST
Uber and road traffic Revoking coal mining Where do female Moral rhetoric and voter
injuries permits conservatives stand? perception
Ride-hailing app Uber is linked Environmental litigation could Postdoctoral Researcher at Political parties use varying
to a 9% decline in serious provide a cost-effective, the Nuffield Politics Research degrees of ‘moral rhetoric’
road accident injuries in the replicable and potentially Centre Rose de Geus in their political literature.
UK, according to a study by scalable solution to the compares male and female Analysing the text of party
Professorial Fellow Dave challenge of the 2°C aims candidates of Conservative manifestos from English-
Kirk. This reduction was set by the Paris Agreement. and Christian Democratic speaking democracies,
slightly counterbalanced by Research Fellow and parties in 21 European and Non-Stipendiary Research
an increase in slight road Postdoctoral Researcher with English-speaking countries, Fellow Jae-Hee Jung shows
accident injuries – such as Climate Econometrics Ryan and finds that female that moral rhetoric can help
sprains and bruises – in Rafaty uses a case study candidates are less right wing mobilise party voters during
London. from a mine in the Hambach than their male peers. elections.
Forest in Germany to assess
Female breadwinners the legality and economic Price comparison Mobile phones empower
Couples who have a advantages of revoking websites women
female breadwinner – mining permits. Price comparison websites Mobile phones are driving a
earning most or all of their increase pressure on firms to revolution for women in the
income – are becoming The economic charge competitive prices, but developing world. A paper
increasingly common. impact of recession also charge firms for sales. By by Non-Stipendiary Fellow
Non-Stipendiary Research announcements modelling the introduction of Valentina Rotondi and Fellows
Fellow Helen Kowalewska The news media will often price comparison websites, Ridhi Kashyap and Francesco
analyses the Luxembourg announce a recession when former Postdoctoral Prize Billari shows that access to
Income Study and finds that a country experiences two Research Fellow David mobile phones is linked to
female breadwinners have consecutive quarters of Ronayne finds that they lower gender inequalities,
lower average individual negative growth. Professorial increase prices for all enhanced contraceptive use
earnings and disposable Fellows Andy Eggers and consumers, whether they use and lower maternal and child
household income than male Martin Ellison assess the the comparison sites or not. mortality, and this relationship
breadwinners. economic impact of such is stronger in the developing
announcements and find world.
a strong relationship to
falling consumer confidence,
consumption and GDP across
several countries.

28 Feature
COVID-19 Research
Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, Nuffield Fellows and students have been using social
scientific methods to examine some of the big questions about the spread of COVID-19.
A comprehensive list of Nuffield research on the pandemic, including links to papers, can be
found at: www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/go/covid-19-research.

Do face coverings work? Coping with labour Learning inequality Behavioural responses to
In a preprint for The Royal market shocks during school closures vaccine deployment
Society and The British Using the Understanding Non-Stipendiary Research In this rapid review for The
Academy, Professorial Fellow Society’s COVID-19 Study, Fellow Per Engzell, DPhil in Royal Society, Professorial
Melinda Mills and colleagues Professorial Fellow Hamish Sociology Mark Verhagen Fellow Melinda Mills writes
from the Leverhulme Centre Low and co-authors identify and co-author Arun Frey use about the behavioural aspects
for Demographic Science those groups most affected by data from the Netherlands of vaccine uptake. Among
review the existing scientific the economic shocks during to evaluate the effect of its recommendations on
literature on the effectiveness the first wave of lockdown primary school closures on how to effectively deploy a
of face coverings, as well in the UK and the financial student progress. They find a vaccination program, the
as behavioural and policy coping strategies they adopt, general learning loss across review addresses the problem
implications. for example, borrowing from the dataset and that these of vaccine misinformation.
Melinda and Official Fellow family and friends. losses are up to 55% larger in
Jan O. Jonsson also evaluate students from less-educated Social-network based
the evidence provided in The geography of excess homes. distancing strategies
support of the Swedish deaths Fellows Ridhi Kashyap and
Public Health Agency’s Fellows Richard Breen and Now-casting COVID-19 Melinda Mills examine the
recommendation against John Ermisch find that, deaths efficacy of three different
wearing face coverings by the during the peak months of The number of deaths distancing strategies using
general public. COVID-19 in the UK, higher reported in the media comes social networks in keeping the
excess mortality is associated with a reporting delay. curve of coronavirus deaths
Economic hardship and with areas with larger non- Professorial Fellow Bent and infections flat.
mental health white populations and higher Nielsen provided a regular
Lower paid workers have deprivation. ‘now-cast’ of recent deaths in
suffered more economic the UK with colleague Sheila
hardship and related mental Effective penalties for Bird from the beginning of
health complaints during violating lockdown the first UK wave to summer
the pandemic, thereby Nuffield DPhil in Politics Seung 2020.
exacerbating existing Hoon Chae and co-author
inequalities, finds this study Hyung Jun Park assess
co-authored by Postdoctoral whether the imposition of fines
Prize Research Fellow Dirk in Germany can help mitigate
Witteveen. the spread of coronavirus using
a quasi-experimental model.

Feature 29
Featured Research:
Preventing Child Abuse
During A Pandemic
There is evidence that incidences of child abuse increase during pandemics.

P
rofessorial Fellow Lucie Cluver had them reviewed across international time and no money, but we’ve come
has been working with African agencies, whilst a brilliant postdoc Dr to realise how essential this is. We’re
governments and international Ohad Green built a website in a day, and now conducting surveys and qualitative
agencies to come up with strategies to we found volunteers on Facebook to research and planning randomised trials
support parents and prevent abuse. translate it into 100 languages within days. to understand more about how effective
The COVID-19 epidemic has been Ten months later, these parenting these resources are, for whom and where.
catastrophic for families. School sheets have been used by 150.7 million The second is that simple parenting
and childcare closures, movement people in 198 countries, and adopted resources may not be enough for a
restrictions, heightened anxiety and by 33 national governments. They sustained epidemic and a deepening
economic crisis have put major strain have been delivered in food parcels global recession. We are working with
on parents and children. Previous health in Sri Lanka, India, South Africa and WHO and UNICEF on an adaptive global
emergencies like Ebola saw sharp rises Montenegro, read out on the radio by a strategy – essentially turning group
in child abuse. We know that most pastor in Malawi, turned into cartoons on parenting programmes into different digital
violence against children doesn’t come national TV in Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan, and human formats that we hope will work
from malice, but rather exhausted, displayed in hospitals in Thailand and across families and countries. You might
overwhelmed, stressed caregivers. And churches in Sudan, played on community have a mother in Nigeria who is part of a
suddenly, in March this year, that was loudspeakers to rural villages in Lao, WhatsApp parenting group and shares her
every parent in the world. given out to early childhood centres in challenges and skills with her friends. Her
The best thing you can do for child Bhutan, used as scripts by community husband may be less enthusiastic about
abuse is to prevent it. And you do that by workers across Africa, given as phone a group, but happy to get parenting tips
supporting caregivers with the wonderful helplines in India, and shared by the First through an app or text messages. And a
and difficult challenge of parenting. Over Lady of Paraguay. They have even been grandmother who doesn’t have a phone,
the past ten years a team of academics made into a song by a Broadway star… but listens to a parenting radio drama.
from Oxford, the University of Cape We set up teams focused on each We are developing and piloting these over
Town, Stellenbosch and Bangor have region, supporting governments, NGOs the next few months, and trying to learn
been developing open-source parenting and faith-based organisations to adapt both from digital development and clinical
programmes, and testing them in and use the evidence. We’ve also tried research designs.
randomised trials. These programmes to get resources to the most vulnerable, And the third lesson? It is that
– ‘Parenting for Lifelong Health’ – have for example to families with disabilities parents and caregivers in this epidemic
been endorsed by WHO, UNICEF and through the Special Olympics, to refugee are heroes. They should be praising
USAID, and used in 25 countries with and displaced families with UNODC, and themselves for every tiny thing that goes
hundreds of thousands of families. to small NGOs in rural West and Central well, and for every time that they manage
But all of a sudden we needed to reach Africa who can’t access online services. to breathe and not to scream. They
millions, and very, very fast. With Dr Jamie But we’ve learnt three hard lessons should be giving themselves breaks, and
Lachman, we contacted our friends and along the way. The first is that, even in an taking time – even just a few minutes - to
colleagues in WHO, UNICEF, USAID, CDC, emergency, we need to build evaluation do things they enjoy. You’re not alone, and
UNODC and the Global Partnership to End into a response. At the start we had no there’s a global community here to help.
Violence against Children. By the end of
that day we’d agreed to work together.
Over the next week, we transferred ten
years of evidence-based programmes
into simple tip sheets for parents and

30 Feature For more information and to access the resources mentioned in this article,
visit www.covid19parenting.com.
Featured Research:
Are Women Candidates
Sore Losers?
Are women more likely to quit politics after losing their first race than men?

R
achel Bernhard (Research Fellow Previous research in political science candidates who barely lose an election
2018-19) researches women running has already demonstrated that the first to those candidates who barely win, we
for office in the United States. prediction—women’s lower rates of can more accurately assess the isolated
In the wake of the 2016 US candidacy—is true. Women are much effect (holding all other factors constant)
presidential election, the number of less likely to ever file for candidacy than of losing an election on future entry by
American women running for office for men, even among those who come from candidate gender.
the first time skyrocketed. This would traditional feeder fields for politics like Our results suggest that, while losing
seem like good news for women’s law, business, education, and activism. candidates are far less likely to run again
representation, as the US currently Unanswered, however, is whether in the future, women who narrowly lose
ranks 76th in the world—equivalent to women’s behaviour differs from men’s at these elections are no more likely to quit
Afghanistan and Cabo Verde—for the the point of re-entry—whether, in the wake politics than men who narrowly lose.
number of women officeholders. of loss, women are less willing to throw Indeed, in no type of election in our data
Commentators and scholars their hats into the ring again. are women candidates more sensitive
suggested this phenomenon might in fact To answer our initial question, my to electoral losses than men. Contrary to
backfire against women: inexperienced coauthor Justin de Benedictis-Kessner fears expressed by pundits and scholars
candidates are more likely to lose, and (Harvard University) and I used data on alike, the potential for many first-time
women might be especially discouraged elections at multiple levels of government women candidates to be driven away
by a loss, causing a future decline in in the United States. To compare the from politics after losing appears to be
the number of women candidates. behaviour of men and women candidates, unfounded.
Why? Well, for one, lots of research in we drew on state and local election data What are the implications for women’s
behavioural economics shows that that feature 211,123 candidates across representation in political office? While
women are more risk-averse: even high- 22,009 jurisdictions between 1950 risk aversion may serve to keep women
ability women students are much less and 2018. To rule out the many other from entering politics at all, the ones who
likely to compete than equivalent men, potential differences between candidates do are no more rejection-sensitive than
and that willingness to compete predicts that play a role in winning elections men. In short, women’s decision-making
future career choices. Additionally, work (think incumbency or funds raised), we differs from men’s at the point of entry
from social psychology suggests women examined only the men and women into politics, not at the point of re-entry.
might be more sensitive to rejection who have won elections by extremely In turn, this implies that increasing the
than men: women are more likely to narrow margins—half a percentage point number of female representatives hinges
withdraw from future competition and to or less—who we can therefore assume on increasing the number of women
de-value their assessments of their own are extremely similar to the men and earlier in the pipeline. Far from being ‘sore
competence after a loss. women who just lost elections by those losers’, the women who run for office are
Though related, risk aversion and same margins. By comparing those just as likely to persist as men.
rejection sensitivity suggest different
predictions about women’s political

“
behaviour. Women’s higher risk aversion
suggests that many women may select
out of competing altogether compared
to similar men. Women’s higher rejection Contrary to fears expressed by pundits and scholars alike, the
sensitivity suggests that many women
may select out of competing again after
potential for many first-time women candidates to be driven
losing compared to men. away from politics after losing appears to be unfounded.”

Feature 31
THE ROAD LESS TRAVELLED:
DUO QIN (DPHIL ECONOMICS 1986)
In ‘The Road Less Travelled’, we talk to alumni with interesting life stories to find out the paths they have taken before and after their
time at Nuffield. This year we spoke to Duo Qin, who came to Nuffield from a newly reopened China in 1986 to study for her DPhil in
Economics. She shared her journey from an oil field on the Yellow River to Oxford.

D
uo Qin describes her journey to Nuffield as As she remembers it, Duo was luckier than some
‘a fairytale’. When she arrived as a mature of her contemporaries. Left behind after her sister
student in 1986, China was just beginning was sent far away to do farm work, Duo was able
to open up. She was one of the first students from to return to Beijing in 1975 and was assigned a job
the People’s Republic of China to receive an Oxford for life, distributing magazines at a foreign language
Scholarship, and her years at Nuffield coincided with publishing house. Her first exposure to English
the events of Tiananmen Square in 1989. was stuffing envelopes for retail subscriptions,
Coming to Oxford was and because of this she started following an open
a case of being in the right English course on the radio. In 1977, Duo was put on
place at the right time. With a ‘re-education programme’ to work on a farm, where
two degrees from China – the for six months she was assigned a dormitory full
first in English and the second of interpreters and translators. China was changing
in Economics – Duo was after Mao’s death in 1976 and, while she was at
the only one on her course the farm, the government resumed the university
with enough English to act entrance exam system. Her new roommates started
as interpreter during a visit teaching her English intensively and she was able to
from Nobel Prize laureates. sit for the university exams that year. She entered a
The contacts she made that university in Beijing (then known as the No. 2 Foreign
day led her to Nuffield and a Language Institute) to read for an English degree.
DPhil in Economics under the supervision of Nuffield University life was such an exciting contrast to
Fellow David Hendry. the magazine packer’s dull life. It was also extremely
Duo grew up in a university compound in Beijing, competitive. However, her university programme
where her parents worked. She was nine years old was mainly geared to train tour guides and English
at the outset of the Cultural Revolution in 1966. Her teachers. She was not keen to be either. But her
father, being branded of a university life had already proved to be inspirational for
‘right-wing’ intellectual, was her older sister, who won a place at Peking University
sent to labour re-education studying international law in 1979, and was later to
programmes for several years. become a Fulbright Scholar at Harvard Law School.
At the height of red-guards’ As her first degree came to an end, Duo had
uprise, her mother went into two options: apply for a postgraduate study or
hiding, leaving her and her be assigned a job as a graduate by the state. She
older sister with a nanny at chose to sit for the postgrad exams at the Chinese
home. Duo and her sister Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in economics,
received very little schooling with the special degree program of ‘Western modern
in those years. Three years economics’. The entrance exams included one paper
later, the whole university in maths, a subject she had always enjoyed and
was moved to an oil field at the mouth of the Yellow excelled in, and in which her parents’ friends gave her
River. Duo’s enduring memory of that time is of the a crash course. Despite coming top of her cohort for
trains and of people migrating, and the journey that both maths and English, the supervisor didn’t want
required hours by train and on various buses. It was to accept any women, so Duo was assigned to the
at the oil field that Duo, living in dormitories, received quantitative economics program instead.
most of her secondary schooling. At one high It was during her postgraduate degree at CASS
school, her teachers were inexperienced but brilliant, that Duo met Lawrence Klein, a Nobel Prize-winning
taken from the top universities to work in the oil field, economist who would kickstart her journey to
and Duo excelled in maths and physics. Oxford. During the early 1980s, CASS invited famous

32 Alumni News
economists as academic visitors to give lectures In June 1989, as Duo was finishing her DPhil
and seminars. Since Duo was the only quantitative thesis on the history of econometrics and preparing
economics student with an English degree, she was to return home, student protests erupted in
asked to act as an interpreter for many of these Tiananmen Square. She made the decision to stay
events. When her Chinese supervisor suggested she in Oxford for a little longer. Having already given up
find out ‘how maths and stats come into economics’, her student accommodation, she bunked in a series
she asked Klein for advice. He wrote down two of College offices that summer, planning to return to
names: David Hendry at Nuffield, and another China as it went through its economic reform. But,
professor in Canada. whilst seeing out the uncertainty with a three-year
Duo wrote to both of them, barely expecting Fellowship at Oriel, Duo fell in love with London: it felt
an answer, and received back not only two letters so much more cosmopolitan than Oxford and it was
but two scholarship offers. She chose Nuffield. a city in which she didn’t feel foreign anymore.
The Oxford scholarship was supplemented by the Duo didn’t return to China for another four years,
College, which meant Duo was fully covered her and she is still in London today, having worked in
for two years of her DPhil and had no teaching the Economics Departments at SOAS and at Queen
responsibilities attached. Duo saw this a huge Mary College, University of London. She does return
bonus as she wasn’t confident to teach in a different to China more often now.
language. The flight was another matter however: Duo credits her unique training – at Nuffield
her parents raided their savings and were able to and working later at Queen Mary, SOAS and also Left, top: Duo sits on
the right, with her back
cover half of a one-way flight. The rest of the fare a 3-year secondment at the Asian Development to the camera, talking
had to be borrowed from the CASS. Bank – with giving her the broader insight she needs to Nobel Laureate
Oxford was a real culture shock. For one, it was to unravel methodological flaws in econometrics. Lawrence Klein (centre)
and her supervisor.
Duo’s first time living in a room by herself. For another, Of academics who specialise in the history of
she had left her 16-month old daughter behind in econometrics, she is probably the only one who is Left, bottom: Duo
China and she couldn’t afford a plane ticket back. Later also an active applied econometric researcher, and (right), already studying
at Nuffield, interviews
in her studies, her husband was able to join her, thanks amongst applied modellers, she is one of the very Nobel Laureate Paul
to Nuffield’s generous subsidies. Her best memories few who have worked on both macro and micro Samuelson in his office
of Nuffield are searching for books and papers in the econometric modelling issues. Her recent work at MIT for her PhD
research.
Library; in China, access to all English publications challenges the very notion of endogeneity bias
involved a long trip to Peking Library. Duo remembers (‘Let’s take the bias out of econometrics’, in Journal Above: Duo (centre)
Nuffield fondly as a “pure unreal world of learning of Economic Methodology 26(2015):1-18, doi:10.1 at her PhD viva in
Oxford in 1990 with
knowledge”, a place where she was able to explore the 080/1350178X.2018.1547415). Over the last few her examiners, Mary
theory, philosophy and history of econometrics. She years, she has been studying machine learning, a Morgan (left) and
also took solace in her fellow Chinese students, many new perspective that has led to her questioning John Aldrich (right),
currently at LSE and
of whom were reading for degrees in science and and deconstructing the probability foundation of Southampton University
engineering. They provided a bridge home. econometrics, another less travelled road. respectively.

Alumni News 33
DEVELOPMENT
NEWS
THE DIGITAL ALUMNI REVOLUTION
This past year has been a shift towards something new and surprisingly fantastic for the international network of Nuffield
Alumni online. Director of Development and Alumni Relations Caroline Kukura writes.

We have entered an exciting new digital happen because of great suggestions extraordinary happen: to all those who
era of alumni relations. It is sad that it from our alumni: for example, my Zoom have contributed, thank you so much.
took a pandemic to connect with more conversations with the wonderful Nancy I also would like to thank
of you around the world, but oh are we Walker (DPhil Politics, 1983), who hosted tremendously Bruno Paulson (Research
embracing this! Often it takes a step Alumni in her home in 2017, led to a great Fellow 1992-1994; DPhil Politics 1989)
outside of the usual for something new virtual event for Nuffield women in April and Charlotte Warner who have greatly
and creative to grow, and this is certainly 2021. Currently, much is new and we are reduced our target for the Butler
what many Colleges have experienced trying to come up with different formats Scholarship (formerly £1.1 million ) so
this year. that will suit everyone: from webinars that we now ‘only’ have another £180k to
It is a refreshing change to be able which are more focused on social go. I hope that this spring many of David’s
to welcome new Alumni into our virtual science research with stellar speakers former students and friends will chip in
meetings, which we have named ‘Brave like Tim Harford (Visiting Fellow 2010- when our direct mail appeal lands on
New World’ sessions. As much as they 2018), or new Visiting Fellow and former their doorsteps. These scholarships are
do not replace seeing many of you in Director-General of the Red Cross Yves a wonderful gift that becomes a human
person, it has been thrilling to hear from Daccord, to less formal sessions where reality in the form of excellent scholarship
Monica Serrano (Visitor 2006) in Mexico, alumni can simply chat. We have also recipients: the College has now appointed
Tomoyuki Uemiya (Visitor 2016-2017) in organised online meetups for early career its first Tony and Judith Atkinson scholar,
Japan, Karin Tischler (MPhil Economics alumni, and another one with the Warden Anna Carruthers, whose research
1994) in Canada and Divya Vaid (DPhil to welcome all those who pledged a interests lie in applied macroeconomics
Sociology 2002) in India, among others. legacy to the College into the Margery and international policy, with a particular
We have relished having a live glimpse Perham Legacy Society. interest in monetary and trade policy.
into your lives and professions, and Other hugely encouraging news is Our new Hausman Scholar, also in
hearing about how you are coping in that our annual Giving Day in November Economics, is Chenchuan Shi, thanks to
these very different times that are so 2020 raised the most we have ever Jerry’s ongoing generosity.
challenging for many of us. A new sense seen, over £67,000. This amounts to
of Nuffield community has arisen; one even more when we count the extra

“
that always existed, but is better able to matched funding provided by the
surface thanks to these new digital ways University and the College. Two urgent
of connecting with you all. These digital propositions both benefited from all the It is a refreshing change to be able to
platforms help us continue to bring the donations made: our drive to complete welcome new Alumni into our virtual
Nuffield community closer together, so a scholarship in Politics to celebrate Sir meetings. As much as they do not
they are here to stay. David Butler before the matched funding replace seeing many of you in person,
It is incredibly encouraging for us from the University runs out, and our new we have relished having a live glimpse
to hear from so many of you and I am ‘Early Career Research Fund’ launched into your lives and professions, and
grateful for any feedback about the online by Alan Rich (BPhil Economics 1975) in hearing about how so many of you are
sessions we have organised or ideas response to the challenges of COVID-19. coping in these very different times
for new ones. Many of these events Lots of small amounts make something that are so challenging for all of us.”

34 Alumni News
 With coronavirus numbers in the UK
GIVING DAY 2020
29 30 01
going down and the vaccination process For
well under way, we are now starting to three
imagine in-person events again, although days: Nov Nov Dec
we remain cautious; we would love to
come back with a bang, with two subject
reunions – for Politics and Economics Five
– currently planned for Spring 2022. We student
hope that travel will become easier for callers:
all of us again by then. The best news:
we now have the technology at College Spoke to
that will, all being well, help us host alumni in
‘hybrid’ subject reunions. We plan to live more than 30
stream the talks from the SCR and hold countries
online sessions so that friends can meet
again. This means that all those alumni
who cannot come to Oxford for a long Raised: + matched funding for two
weekend can at least join us for some £67,027.72 = £156,780.90 funds:
parts of the reunions.
These are unprecedented times,
Early Career Research Fund and the
and despite all the positivity we like to
put out, we know how tough it is for so
many of us in so many different ways. David Butler Scholarship:
Our thoughts go out to all in our alumni
community who are struggling, be it £180,000+ matched funding = 120 gifts
with bereavement, isolation, delays remaining of £1.1 million of £1,500
in medical treatment or the stresses
of working from home whilst home-
schooling. We are thinking of you. We A gift of £10 is worth at least £25 with match
want to thank you so much for all your funding from the University and the College.
warmth towards the College during this
Map image: Freepik.com

time. Your appreciation for this special

Look out for a letter about the David Butler
place and the fine study of the social
Scholarship this Spring.
sciences continues to be uplifting. We
are extremely grateful to have such kind,
generous people in our Nuffield Alumni
network. We hope to see you soon!

Alumni News 35
PHOTO GALLERY: ALUMNI EVENTS
It feels like a different world back in January and February 2020 when we welcomed alumni and friends in London for New Year’s
Drinks and in Oxford for the Sociology Reunion: we hope to see you all again in person soon.
In the meantime, we have been running remote alumni events and hope to continue to do so over the coming months.
For more photos from our pre-lockdown in-person events, visit the College’s Flickr account at www.flickr.com/nuffield.

New Year’s Drinks at the Nuffield Foundation, London

January 2020
We enjoyed seeing so many of you at our now-traditional London drinks event to mark the 2020 New Year The Warden and current
students joined Nuffield alumni based in the capital to mark the start of the new decade.

Clockwise from top left: Malcolm Dean (Research Fellow

2007-8; Associate Member 2009-17), Jan Ertl (MPhil
Economics 2018) and Robert Ritz (DPhil Economics 2004);
Gerald Holtham (BPhil Economics 1971), Daniel Kelly (MSc
Sociology 1990) and Caroline Kelly; Norman Ellis (Research
Fellow 1971-4), James Durcan (Research Fellow 1975-8;
Associate Member 1977-9), Valerie Ellis and Mary Durcan;
Anthony Howe (DPhil History 1972) and Roland Quinault (DPhil
History 1969); Honorary Fellow Greg Clark (Visiting Fellow
2007-8), Alice Lazzati (DPhil Sociology 2013), Rebecca Shortt
(MPhil Political Theory 2015) and Mukti Campion (Research
Fellow 2004-5).

36 Alumni News
Sociology Subject Reunion
February 2020
Nuffield sociology alumni gathered with current Fellows and students to hear about ‘New directions in Sociology’, with presentations
by Nuffield Fellows Ridhi Kashyap and Jonathan Lusthaus and alumna Evrim Altintas (DPhil Sociology 2007).
The presentations were followed by Emeritus Fellow John Goldthorpe, who reminisced about 50 years of ‘Sociology in Nuffield
and further afield’ and a dinner in Hall.

Clockwise from top left: Emeritus Fellow John Goldthorpe; Non-

Stipendiary Research Fellow Marii Paskov; Christel and David
Lane (DPhil Sociology 1961) with Jacqueline O’Reilly (DPhil
Sociology 1987); Susan Smith (DPhil Sociology 1979; Visiting
Fellow 1979-81), Graham Mansfield (DPhil Sociology 1977) and
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nicholas Martindale (DPhil
Sociology 2016); Fellows Ridhi Kashyap and Jonathan Lusthaus,
introduced by Official Fellow and chair of the Sociology group,
Jan O. Jonsson; Evrim Altintas (DPhil Sociology 2007).

Alumni News 37
‘Brave New World’
virtual alumni
meetups
September 2020 & April 2021
Nuffield alumni and friends around the
world came together online to share
how they are all doing in this ‘Brave New
World’ and to catch up with their friends.
After the success of these meetups in
September 2020 (pictured top), we held
another Brave New World in April 2021
for those who were at Nuffield in the
2010s. It was good to see so many faces
and catch-up, and we hope to continue to
run more similar events.

Webinars and other virtual events Nuffield Women’s Event

September 2020 to April 2021 April 2021
As well as more informal catch ups with alumni, we have been lucky enough We held our first ever Alumnae Women’s Event
to host some fantastic speakers for a series of virtual webinars, including: online in April 2021 (pictured bottom). Alumnae,
• Professorial Fellow Andrew Thompson on ‘Aid Agencies: Past, Present Fellows, staff and students came together online
and Future’ with Honorary Fellow Mike Aaronson and Visiting Fellow Yves to share ideas and news, give career advice and
Daccord (September 2020) celebrate each other’s activities. Alumna Nancy J.
• Tim Harford (Visiting Fellow 2010-18) in conversation with the Warden Walker (DPhil Politics 1983), who suggested the
Andrew Dilnot (October 2020) idea, also kicked off the proceedings.
• Alumna Jennifer Castle (DPhil Economics 2003; Research Fellow 2006- We welcome Nuffield women to connect
2009) on ‘How to reach net-zero emissions in a post-COVID world’ for the with each other through our new LinkedIn group
Margery Perham Society’s Inaugural event (April 2021) - search ‘Nuffield College Women’s Group’ on
We recorded some of these webinars, which are available to watch online at LinkedIn.
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/go/virtual-alumni-events-2020.

38 Alumni News
ALUMNI
ANNOUNCEMENTS
Andrew Adonis book was also shortlisted Tim Harford
DPhil Politics 1985; for the Canadian Political Visiting Fellow, 2010-2018
Research Fellow, 1988-1989; Science Association Prize in Tim’s latest book, The Next Fifty Things That Made the Modern
Governing Body Fellow, Comparative Politics this year. Economy , was published by The Bridge Street Press in May as
1992-1996 a sequel to his 2017 work, Fifty Things That Made the Modern
Andrew’s new book Ernest Mary Dobson Economy. In this book, Tim explores further the unexpected
Bevin: Labour’s Churchill DPhil Geography 1977; inventions which shape our economy and our world.
was published by Biteback Research Fellow, 1981-1984 Tim also published How To Make The World Add Up in
this year. The book explores Mary recently drew our September 2020 and gave a webinar with the Warden for
the life and legacy of the attention to a short piece she Nuffield alumni on it in October (see page 18).
statesman and his ongoing wrote about Lord Nuffield’s
relevance in the modern day. legacy in the production of John Hemingway
respirators or ‘iron lungs’ in DPhil Sociology 1972
Philippe Aghion the 1930sThis piece appears John and Sue made a new
Governing Body Fellow, in her book Murderous feathered friend this year!
1992-1996 Contagion: A Human History Phil, the pheasant who visited
Philippe was a joint winner of Disease (2015) published them regularly as they kept
of the BBVA Foundation by Quercus. themselves busy in the garden
Frontiers of Knowledge Award during the UK lockdown.
in Economics this year “for Gina Gustavsson
fundamental contributions Associate Member; Visitor
to the study of innovation, 2013
technical change, and Gina has written for both
competition policy”. The Guardian (‘Has Sweden’s
coronavirus played into the
Felix Busch hands of nationalists’, 1 May
DPhil Sociology 2014 2020) and The Washington
Felix was awarded the Post (‘The risk of Sweden’s
European Consortium for coronavirus strategy? Blind
Sociological Research’s patriotism’, 3 May 2020) on
prize for his thesis written Sweden’s COVID-19 response Megan Greene Heiko Hesse
whilst at Nuffield on ‘Gender which she argues shows DPhil Politics 2005 DPhil Economics 2003
Segregated Labor Markets’. the darker side of nationalist Heiko and Megan had a mini Nuffield reunion in Athens
pride. in September, along with Heiko’s wife Evi and new baby
Christiana Cheng Alexander, born 20 April. Heiko sent us this photo of their
DPhil Politics 2004 Robin Harding mini Nuffield reunion.
Christiana has won the 2019 Associate Member; Heiko also appeared in the movie Nachspiel
Conflict Research Society Research Fellow, 2012-2013 (Aftermath) about his life since playing football for
Book of the Year Prize for her Robin’s book Rural Borussia Dortmund. The documentary was shown at
work Extralegal Groups in Democracy: Elections and the Munich DOK Festival in May and the Cologne Film
Post-conflict Liberia (2018) Development in Africa was Festival in early October.
published by OUP. The published by OUP this year.

Alumni News 39
ALUMNI
ANNOUNCEMENTS
David Howell Isabel Raabe
Visiting Fellow, 1992-2000 DPhil Sociology 2014
2019 saw the release of Isabel won an Ambizione
David’s book Look Where grant from the Swiss
We’re Going: Escaping National Science Fund
the Prism of Past Politics, (Schweizerischer
published by Unicorn. Nationalfonds or SNF) for a
four-year research project at
Philip Hunt the University of Zurich.
DPhil History 1981
Philip has been working with Chris Rowley
the Portsmouth University DPhil Sociology 1987
Psychology Department and Amongst other comment for
has published book reviews in various newspapers, Chris
The Dorset Yearbook in 2019. Lucie Kalousova published a letter calling for
More personally, he wanted Research Fellow, 2017-2019 ‘Captains of industry, step
to update fellow alumni that Lucie was awarded the Neuron Award in Czechia, a up in times of need’ in the
he sadly and suddenly lost his prestigious award for young scientists, in November 2019 Financial Times in March,
fiancée Anne four years ago, for her work during her time at Nuffield on the relationship emphasising the need for
after ten years together. between social inequality and health. industrial chiefs to serve
the nation by producing
Richard Johnson respirators.
DPhil Politics 2014 Chandrika Kaul Carina Mood The letter referenced the
Richard’s book The End of the DPhil Politics 1991 Associate Member philanthropy of Lord Nuffield
Second Reconstruction was Chandrika has been awarded Carina was elected a member in the 1930s when Polio was
published by Polity Press this a Leverhulme Major Research of the Royal Swedish Academy rife and he turned part of the
year. Richard’s work explores Fellowship for her monograph of Sciences on 12 February, as Cowley plant to respirator
the legacy of the civil rights on the BBC and India, to be part of the society’s class for production. (See Time Machine
movement in the USA during published by OUP. social sciences. on page 13 for more info.)
the Trump era and the ways
in which multiculturalism is
under threat. Barry Nalebuff
DPhil Economics 1981
Eric Jones Barry visited Oxford in March 2020– a
DPhil History 1961; week before the start of lockdown – to give
Research Fellow, 1963-1967 one of the last in-person Economic Theory
Eric’s book Barriers to Lunchtime workshops on ‘A Perspective-
Growth: English Economic Invariant Approach to Nash Bargaining’.
Development from the Here he is pictured with Fellows (from left)
Norman Conquest to Kevin Roberts, Meg Meyer (who convenes
Industrialisation, published by the workshops) and Paul Klemperer.
Palgrave, came out this year.

40 Alumni News
 Kok Peng Teh
Roger and Ann Scott DPhil Economics 1971
Visitor, 2001 and Warden’s Secretary, 1960s Kok Peng has recently been appointed as an
Roger (Visitor, 2001) and Ann met in the Warden’s office, when Roger independent director at Hollysys Automation
was visiting the then-Warden, Norman Chester during his DPhil in Technologies.
Politics at Lincoln College (1961) and Ann was the Warden’s secretary.
Since meeting at Nuffield, life has taken them all the way to Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme
Brisbane, Australia, where Ann went on to complete a PhD in public DPhil Sociology 2010
policy, undertook an illustrious career in the civil service and an Her book, co-written with Joel Thiessen, Nonreligious
adjunct professorship at the University of Queensland. Identity in the US and Canada was published by NYU
Ann shared wonderful memories of earlier days at the College, Press this year.
including her memories of Margery Perham. Things came full circle
for Ann, as she has researched, written and taught on colonial Lea Ypi
history, which has led her to explore much of Margery Perham’s work. Research Fellow, 2008-2011
She told us: Lea has become the first ever Albanian member
“For the past two years Roger and I have been teaching a U3A of the European Academy of Humanities, Letters
course on the ‘The British in Africa’, and I am revisiting Nuffield and Sciences. She has also signed a contract with
through research into Margery Perham, who was appointed as the Penguin for FREE, ‘a philosophical memoir on
College’s first Fellow in 1939. Little did I imagine when I watched her growing up in communist Albania and the transition
striding across the Nuffield lawn in the early 1960s (lesser mortals to liberalism’. She was recently interviewed on the
obeyed the ‘keep off the grass’ notice) the extraordinary life that had Talking Politics podcast on the theory and practice
brought her there and what, indeed, she was still achieving. It was at of emergency political powers.
this time that she was publishing The Colonial Reckoning.”
Roger has spent many years at the University of Queensland as
a professor of Political Science and History and is a Founder of the
policy-focused think tank the TJ Ryan Foundation, where Ann is also
a research coordinator.

Tomoyuki Uemiya
Visitor, 2016-2017
Tomoyuki shared with us a slice of life in Japan during the
pandemic, which he also shared with those who attended
the Brave New World virtual reunion in September (see
page 38).
Whilst Tomoyuki gave lectures from home, his daughter
Mako went to a new kindergarten for the first time. Back in
May, Mako and her classmates were split into three groups
and attended school every three days. Mako has also been
helping Tomoyuki grow strawberries at home.

Alumni News 41
Reading List:
Understanding the Future
The Nuffield Library team suggest selected readings on understanding the future…

New Dark Age: Technology and the Uncertain futures: Imaginaries, The genome factor: What the social
end of the future narratives, and calculation in the genomics revolution reveals about
James Bridle (Verso, 2018) economy ourselves, our history, and the future
New Dark Age brings to light the dark Edited by Jens Beckert and Richard Bronk Dalton Conley and Jason Fletcher
side of the digital world we now live in, (Oxford University Press, 2019) (Princeton University Press, 2017)
filled with unverifiable information and Uncertain Futures shows how grand The Genome Factor brings together the
confusion. Bridle argues that the ideal of a narratives, economic forecasts, financial latest research in genomics and the
coherent world model built by quantitative models and business plans powerfully social sciences to provide readers with a
data and enabled by technology is far from influence economic behaviour. In it, an more comprehensive understanding of
our reality, and that, as digital technology alternative model of economic reasoning human nature on all societal levels.
booms, incomprehension also increases. – based on fictional rather than rational
expectations – is built. Look out for Electoral shocks : the volatile voter
Narrative economics: How stories the chapter by Nuffield Visiting Fellow in a turbulent world
go viral and drive major economic Andrew Haldane on ‘Uncertainty in Ed Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Geoffrey
events Macroeconomic Modelling’. Evans, Jonathan A. Mellon, Christopher
Robert J. Shiller (Princeton University Prosser, Hermann Schmitt and C. van der
Press, 2019) Nationalism on the Internet: Eijk (Oxford University Press, 2020)
Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Critical theory and ideology in the Written by the team behind the British
Shiller helps us to understand how and age of social media and fake news Election Study, Electoral Shocks covers
why stories influence major economic Christian Fuchs (Routledge, 2020) the 2015 and 2017 British General
events in this award-winning book which What is nationalism? And what role does Elections to provide an in-depth view of
likens the spread of negative information social media play in the transmission these specific election outcomes as well
to the spread of epidemic viruses. of nationalist ideology? Fuchs answers as a broad account of understanding
this question by studying nationalist electoral volatility.
Whitelash: Unmasking white discourse and case studies from the
grievance at the ballot box German and Austrian 2017 Federal
Terry Smith (Cambridge University Press, Elections, helping to develop a critical
2020) theory of nationalism in the digital age.
An on-point read for anyone interested
in the background of electoral racial
discrimination in the wake of the 2020
US Presidential Election and Black Lives
Matter movement. Smith uses data
from the 2016 US Presidential Elections
to unmask voter bias and to show how
courts can provide legal remedies for
racial biases at the ballot box.

A history of the world in seven

cheap things: A guide to capitalism,
nature, and the future of the planet
Raj Patel & Jason W. Moore (Verso, 2018)
The cheapness of seven key commodities
— nature, money, work, care, food, energy
and lives — has and will continue to
negatively impact the world. Patel and
Moore propose a new way of taking back
control of capitalism in the 20th century,
using examples from historical crises and
new ecological research.

42 Feature
UPCOMING
EVENTS
Because of COVID-19, our
We hope to be able to hold some in-person events in the events this year will be much
next year; dates for your diary will follow soon. more spontaneous than usual,
and we will send invitations

Donors’ Event: Croquet &

by email as they are arranged.
For the most current list, see

Strawberries in the Quad

www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/alumni-
development. We hope to see
you soon!
June 2021
Not getting emails from us?
Make sure you’ve sent us your

Politics Reunion
up-to-date contact details at
[email protected].

February 2022

Economics Reunion
April 2022